Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Gary Lezak | Weather 20/20

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Gary Lezak | Weather 20/20 · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, after yesterday's down day in the markets, price action was quieter today.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the Super El Nino continues to strengthen.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: They called it a Godzilla El Nino just a few weeks ago.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta know what's more super than Godzilla.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: And here's a question I haven't heard answered.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: What comes after a system like that?
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman here for you on Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Getting to be late in September, the autumn of September, you might say.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: September 29, 2026.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Glad to have everybody aboard on this Tuesday afternoon.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: A great conversation coming up today.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: I've been looking forward to this for a good long time, and the day is finally here, everybody.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: We've got Gary Lizak from Weather 2020 and Lizakweather.com.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: He well, we'll get deeper into I can't even go into all of the things that uh that this guy does.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: He thinks about weather in a different way than other atmospheric atmospherics.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Atmosphericists do, at least in my experience.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: And I would I I'm pleased to bring him to you to to direct you toward his web-related materials.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: He's got uh got some breaking news coming out.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: You'll be able to see a little bit more of Gary in the very near future, if not right away.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Like I said, there's lots to learn from this fella, and I'm really looking forward to it.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: And a KC guy to boot.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, can you beat that?
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: Can you beat that?
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Stick around, everybody.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna hit the markets, and then and then we'll get to that conversation.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Let me first direct you to AgBull.com to check out our subscription services.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: And remember, we're still offering that blue tube Bluetooth speaker.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: If you sign up for an entire year, we're not asking you to get rid of the AM radio, okay?
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm an old school media guy myself.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: I understand in the barn, you haven't turned off that radio since what, 1982, maybe?
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it's it's served you well.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: You need your locals, you need all that sort of stuff, but you can open up your world to fellas like me, to guys like Gary Lizak and others using the internet on your phone there.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody's got the interwebs on their phone, so uh, why not take advantage of uh Tommy Grossoffi's offer to send you a Bluetooth speaker if you sign up for one full year and we'll still kick in two months free at that, or 25 a month.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever you want to do, it's fine.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: No pressure at all.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: USDA released its crop progress report yesterday.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: The agency put corn crop conditions in line with expectations, in line with the previous week as well.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: At 57% harvest was 18% complete, and that's in line with year ago.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Similar story on soybeans conditions met expectations were unchanged from the previous week, while lagging year ago, soybean harvest fell two points behind the same week last year, now at 17% complete, and winter wheat planting, meanwhile, remains a few points behind year ago at twenty-seven percent complete.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go to the tail of the ticker and talk markets a little bit.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Corn was just fractionally lower this morning, with soybeans up a nickel.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago wheat clung to unchanged.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: As KC wheat fell around six cents in the first hour of trade, livestock futures were solidly higher to start the day.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Rounding into the lunch hour, corn still had not strayed far from unchanged, although still in negative territory.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans were a dime lower, winter wheat futures were mixed, livestock futures were off-session highs, but still moderately higher on the day, with lean hog futures leading gains.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get over to the settlements.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: All told December corn was down a penny on the day, 522 at settlement.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: November soybeans, pretty decent day here.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: Almost to 13, close to 12.97 and three quarters, up nine, yes, nine and one half cents on the November soybean contract.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, meal was mostly lower.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil was higher across the board there.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then over to the wheats, I've got Chicago mixed price action in the wheats for you.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago up four cents on the day, 692 and three quarters at settlement.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Your KC December wheat down two and three quarters at 7.43.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: And over to the livestock.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Couldn't quite hold on to the gains in the fat cattle.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: I've got October feeder cattle off$1.75 on the day,$3.33.65.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: October fat cattle 22 and 1.5 cents lower,$2.17.22 and a half.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Unchanged out there in the D's and in the April, the Feb contract off just two and a half cents.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: But look at those hogs.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: They get the effort award once again today.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: December Lean Hog Futures up$1.30, 69 and 70.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let me say thank you to Plus 500, our sponsor.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: My crew and I all use Plus 500 T4 software for up-to-the-minute quotes, real-time quotes, and all sorts of cool stuff.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500, thank you to plus 500.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, let me bring in my guest with much fanfare.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Gives me a great deal of joy to introduce to you Gary Leezak from Weather 2020.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Mr.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Leezak, welcome to Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: It is a treat to have you, my brother.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: How are you today?
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: Good afternoon, Davis.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's great to be here.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: My my statement for 30, 40 years on TV was good morning.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: So there you go.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, half of Kansas City, heck, maybe three quarters of Kansas City couldn't start their day without that.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Is that fair to say?
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's fine.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: That's great because we're launching something new we'll talk about later.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: But uh Lee ZachWeather.com launching today, and it's gonna be a weather disruption of the Kansas City market, is what our plan is.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Ooh, excellent, excellent.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I I do have lots of questions because I came from the I think we could call it traditional media side, as as you did.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't have nearly the the you know the the time in as you did, but you know, I I had my feet in that world, and now I'm out here on the other side, as are you, and I do want to talk about what that's like for you.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: First, let's let me give the viewers a word from weather2020.com because that's that's really sort of the gut slot of what I want to talk about today.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Here's a quote that I just pulled straight up the website.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Our mission is to provide unparalleled weather data and predictive analytics to empower industries and individuals in making informed, profitable decisions on supply, demand, and staffing.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: A key aspect of our mission is the life-saving potential of advanced weather warnings.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: You take this pretty seriously, don't you, Gary?
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: And if you wind that all together, we want farmers and businesses and people to make confident decisions.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: How can you make a confident weather decision when something could be 30, 60, 100, 150, even up to 300 days out?
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's like, oh, a lot of your listeners out there probably think that's impossible.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: But at Weather 2020, we're showing that it's not just possible, we are doing it at a level of accuracy where you follow us for about a year, and then a year later, you're like, I can make these decisions.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: They were right most of the time, you know, majority of the time, like in the stock market, 51% accurate, you're gonna be rich in weather.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: If you're 51% accurate, it doesn't sound great, but when you're predicting the weather 100 days late in the future, 51% is good, and we strive to be 60 to 95% accurate, and it depends on what category you're talking about.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you are a very well-known and dare I say beloved figure here in the city of Kansas, the city of Fountains itself.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: But for for those of us outside of the metro, for those folks outside the metro, I should say, a little street cred.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Tell us how you got into doing the weather.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Tell us a little bit about your television career.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get to know Gary Lizak before we go any further, please.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks a lot, Davis.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: I I grew up in Southern California ever since I was five years old.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: I've been interested in weather.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: So, really, my first memories are of clouds and and weather.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I did not know the weather was boring out in Southern California.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it was exciting.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't know any better because that's where I grew up.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: I I started keeping a weather calendar in 1978.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: It was the Star Wars calendar.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: The first Star Wars movie had just come out, and my parents bought the Star Wars calendar for me, and I started keeping weather entries in there.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: And I kept that calendar all the way up to about 2010, all year after year after year.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: So I have records of the previous Super El Ninos.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: We can talk about that later.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, I grew up there, I was fascinated by weather, went to the University of Oklahoma, got my degree in meteorology.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: Someone said a bad word on TV in Oklahoma City, and that's how I got my career started.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: It was the day of the space shuttle challenger disaster on January 28th, 1986.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: And the morning meteorologist literally said that word that starts with F.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: And he got fired that morning, and I got, as an intern, hired that day, and that was the big first big break I got in my career when that started.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: And then seven years later, I ended up getting a job in Kansas City, and I I came to Kansas City, no one knew who I was, and it within a couple years I became quite popular, and then I had a great 33-year career additional.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I've had a 40-year career in television, started weather 2020.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: I discovered back in 1987 and 1988 that the weather pattern is cycling and we can predict using this patent pending technology in the future.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm I'm getting all over the place, but I'm very passionate about the weather.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: When I was in my teens and in my 20s, I thought, what if I'm 64 years old?
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: Am I gonna be just as fascinated by the weather?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I am.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: So there you go.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and I'm gonna show our our viewers and our our uh listeners how they can benefit from that fascination.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: A quick question, I'd I guess being I I grew up in Iowa and migrated, I guess, here uh met a local gal, married uh married a local gal here in KC just a few years ago.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm fairly new to town, fell in love with the town immediately.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: But my assumption is that everybody in California knows how to surf.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Growing up in California, did you ever learn how to surf?
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: No, but I body surfed and I and I boogie board okay, but I didn't I didn't surf when I was a kid.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: I would go out into the waves and literally body surf.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: So I I definitely was not afraid, but I never really was a surfer.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: Not me.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm gonna count it.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna count it.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: You you include the word boogie with just about anything, and it might as well be surfing.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: Weather2020, weather2020.com.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: Quick question is this some obsession with Barbara Walters or perhaps Hugh Downs?
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: What talk to me about weather 2020?
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: What does it mean?
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: Who's it for?
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: 2020 is like 2020 vision, and so so we maybe we should be called weather vision 2020, but it's weather vision.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: So with weather 2020, we can see the weather up to nearly a year ahead, but back I can't see everything back here.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, I can't see everything, so but I can see most things, so so that's what 2020 comes from.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: So weather 2020 is like 2020 vision.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: We we use the LRC technology, and that's what we do to predict the weather.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: The LESAC recurring cycle, correct?
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: LRC?
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: LRC, there you go.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: And does that come from you mentioned you started collecting data as a very young man?
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: Does does it go all the way back to the 70s?
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: Is that when the LRC really, really got its uh genesis?
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: If you can go back to all the way back to the 1940s and 1950s, Jerome, Jerome Namayas was a famous meteorologist, he was the head of the long-range forecasting division of the Weather Bureau back in the 1940s.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: The Weather Bureau became the National Weather Service.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_01: And in the 1940s and 50s, he wrote, he had published probably about 200 papers and a couple books, one called the index cycle.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: And way back then, I found one of his papers and he said, for some reason or another, by November, each fall, we have enough information to predict the winter ahead.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: Ding, ding, ding.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: That's part of my theory that I didn't even know about him, but I that's one of my aspects of the one of the four core principles of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern sets up every October, November.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: And it's about to happen right now.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's amazing.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then he said, for some reason or another, these cycles last weeks at a time.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Ding ding ding.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: This this year is about a 76-day cycle or close to 11 weeks.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: Last year was a 41-day cycle or close to six weeks, and so a new cycle length and weather patterns about to evolve.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: So it stems all the way back to the 1940s and 50s.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: But in 1987 and 1988, and I've got the mirror on my wall right here.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: And Oklahoma City, where I lived and was on TV just two years into my TV career, we had a major winter.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: And it wasn't just Oklahoma City, it hit Kansas City as well.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: And there was storm after storm after storm, winter storms, the pattern set up that year to produce all kinds of winter storms.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: It snowed in Oklahoma City in November.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: There was a one-foot snowstorm in December.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: There was a major ice storm around the holidays.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: Remember, this is Oklahoma City, a place that averages eight inches of snow winter.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: And then they had another one-foot snowstorm in January or February.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: I noticed the pattern, the weather pattern in the jet stream, when we show that to you, that looked similar in each one of those storm scenarios.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: And that's when I started going, wait a second, this isn't a coincidence.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: It took a few more years, 1992, when I moved to Kansas City, where I really developed my hypothesis that the weather pattern is cycling.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then by 2002, 2003, we started making major predictions.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: And the bloggers at the KSHB TV weather blog back, very popular back in the early 2000s, they said, Gary, you're getting all these forecasts right.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: We should, we should like call it something.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: And that's how it got named, the LRC, the bloggers.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's really that's really cool.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I've I've noticed, so I grew up and and spent most of my well, all of my youth and most of my adult life in central Iowa.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I I noticed coming down to Kansas City, it's almost like there's right at the Missouri-Iowa state line, maybe just a tad further south, it just seems like there's a hard reset to the weather.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: And we're down here in KC, maybe 10 degrees warmer, and just a little bit later with the seasonal changes with spring and fall.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I first noticed it in plant catalogs where they had the different climate zones.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: But Gary, one of the things that that uh that I really clued into climatologically, you might say, is just how stark those those lines can be.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: Have you noticed that as well?
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, there's a big difference between Iowa and and even Missouri.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: Right in southern Iowa and northern Missouri is one of those zones.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: And there's other zones like that all over the United States.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: But it there are times, there are some patterns that set up where the Arctic air masses get all the way down to the Iowa-Missouri border and they stall there.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Kansas City is in a location where that rain-snow line often sets up.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: So rain to the south, snow to the north, freezing rain, sleet in the middle.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: And that might move a little bit from northern Missouri to southern Missouri, but Iowa, Des Moines, and Omaha are almost always in the snow in those scenarios.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: Joplin, Missouri, and Oklahoma City are often in the rain in those scenarios, but Kansas City's in that rain-snow mix, so it makes it very difficult.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: Kansas City, one of the most difficult places to forecast the weather in the world.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and so here you are working as a uh as a weatherman at a television station, which probably has its benefits and its constraints to some degree, but you used a very scientific word there, Gary.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: You said hypothesis, and how you were thinking through your hypothesis while you were working at the television station.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: It almost sounds like you were, you know, like Einstein working at the patent office kind of a thing, uh, working on your hypothesis as you reported on the weather.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: How did those two come together?
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: Did they?
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, in 1987, 88, early in my career, when I when I discovered this and cultivated that, and then the blog started, and I was sharing the technology with everyone, it was just a natural fit.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the LRC is a complex scientific hypothesis, okay, that obviously I believe is being proven, and I'm working on the proof of that.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: But the television aspect is broadcasting, and what I was really good at is talking to a 10-year-old kid and telling them about the weather.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: And this is probably one of the reasons I was always successful in television, is because I was able to connect with that 10-year-old kid in that kind of level to explain because all of us are can understand that 10-year-old level of weather forecasting, it's not too complex.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: Is it going to rain?
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_01: Is it going to snow?
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: How much?
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_01: And be excited about it.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, that was me.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: The LRC is much more complex.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: So when I try to explain it, it's a little more scientific.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: I still threw it in to my discussions and I did the winter forecast.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: I think we were the first ones in the world, in the United States for sure, to do winter forecasts every year.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now lots of people come out with their winter forecasts.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: It's too early, by the way.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: We don't know what the weather pattern is yet.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: But but I I did combine the two on the air, as you probably know.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: You and I have something else in common, and that's uh we've got a picture of Blaze the handsome news dog here.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't didn't didn't think to get some pictures of your dogs, but uh you're famous for uh for involving your dogs, like events around town and and things like that.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: Tell us this is Blaze, he's a he's a Texas healer, which I don't know.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: I I wasn't sure if that was an actual breed or not.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's a cross between an Australian cattle dog and an Australian shepherd.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I just assumed that the amalgam was originally conceived in Texas, and that's why they call it a Texas healer.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: But apparently that's it's a real thing.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: I just wanted a a mixed breed, medium-sized brown dog who would love me.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to us about your dogs.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: We can I gotta know.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: I just gotta know, just for a second.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: No one here.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: Let me wake up sunny.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh-huh.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: You're sunny the one.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, this is great, everybody.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is great.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: You're sunny.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: Hello, Sunny.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Here's Rainbow right behind her.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: This is Sunny, and Sunny is part Australian Shepherd and Corgi, believe it or not.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: No kidding.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: She's Corgi Aussie mix, and then Rainbow over here, and she is a black lab mix, but this is Sunny.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, there's Rainbow.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: And uh but she sunny is 11 and Rainbow is seven, so I've got a 7-Eleven going on there.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: But they're both wonderful, and they're my weather dogs, and it's amazing.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: They enrich our lives in ways that uh are hard to explain.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure you would agree.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know why it's hard to explain, but we just love them and they do.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: We do.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and and Blaze takes a great deal of responsibility in making sure that the broadcasts go okay.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: You know, he's been here broadcasting with me all along the way.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's uh let's focus.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get back to Weather 2020 because there's all kinds of services listed on here.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess I just want to just bullet point each of these with a with a brief description.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: You've got expert legal testimony, operational efficiency optimization, supply chain resilience enhancer, and probably most important to our audience, precision agrometeorology integration.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_00: So you or some of your cohort will show up and testify in court at what sorts of things?
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Jeff Fenner is our forensics meteorologist.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: So if there's a slip and fall, and in Kansas City, there's a lot of those, or anywhere around the country, if there's a slip and fall or or a uh a car crash or some kind of issue where ice or snow or rain or wind was was involved, we are the weather experts.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: So we have Jeff has been keeping meticulous records for 40 years himself, and so if you need expert test.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: Testimonial.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: That's what our forensics department does.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: And he represents definite different clients with attorneys over the per year.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: And usually they don't go to court because Jeff completely resolves them with his weather analysis.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the forensics department.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: And then we have weather our weather vision dashboard, and that's for enterprise customers.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: We have a brand new one that's going to be launched here soon.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: We've been using it in my reports, which we'll talk about in a second, uh, that you can get at a lower cost.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: But these cost roughly$1,500 per year, and you will have your county, your state, and you can go down to Brazil and check out what's happening in Brazil day by day, week by week.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: You get the forecast for the year ahead.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: Did you hear me?
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: This is the thing.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: You can put in now to October 1st of next year and get a whole year's forecast day by day, most accurate week by week.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: You can see which weeks will be wet, which weeks will be dry.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the new LRC is setting up.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not saying the March and April forecast is accurate at this moment because in October, November is the first cycle of the weather pattern that we're about to experience with the influence of Super El Nino, which we'll talk about.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: But when that sets up, by the end of November and December, this model you will have is updated, and then you can plan for your planting harvest a year in advance or six months in advance for sure.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: And and you can monitor it on this.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: But it goes down to your county, and it's you know, 180 farmers have this tool right now, and we think thousands should have it.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely vital information.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: Let's um let's talk turkey for just a little bit, and then I want to get to lezakweather.com, which is our our breaking news that that just came out.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: As I understand, the super El Nino is still gathering strength.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know, I'm a rank amateur when it comes to this stuff, but it's what I've heard is the Super El Nino, the Godzilla El Nino still strengthening.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: Can we talk about analog years to begin our discussion on the Super Godzilla El Nino?
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely, and it's in our report.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_01: This is the the least expensive product we have is weather 2020.substack.com.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: Weather2020.substack.com.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: And in today's report, I I update this every Tuesday.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: And in today's report, I talk about the Super El Nino.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: First of all, El Nino is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean when temperatures rise above average by 0.5 degrees or more over five three-month periods.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: That's a complex concept in its own right.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: But as soon as that happens, then it's officially an El Nino.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: And when it's as strong as this year is, it's very similar to the recent three Super El Ninos.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_01: Here are the recent three Super El Ninos: 1982-83 winter, 1997-98 winter, and 2015-2016 winter.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: If we look at the snow year by year of those three years, okay, so let's look at Chicago, Illinois, Boston, Massachusetts, and Fargo, North Dakota.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: Those three cities, fairly far up to the north, are all in all three previous Super El Niños, Chicago was 69% of average in 82, 83, 77% of average in 97, 98, and 81% of average in 2015, 2016.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: So Chicago, Boston, and Fargo all below to significant below average on snowfall during the winter, all right?
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: In the previous three Super El Ninos.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: That's an El Nino signature.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: In a place like Kansas City, for example, let's go a little bit farther south.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: Let me just go find it here.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: Kansas City in 1982-83 had 23 inches of snow.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: Whoa.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: In 1997-1998, Super El Nino 19 inches of snow, also a little bit above average.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: But in the 2015-2016 season, they had 5.9 inches of snow.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_01: So it's hit or miss in Kansas City.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then one last thing about Super El Nino out west, California.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: They already have issued a state of emergency.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: In 2015-2016, they also issued a state of emergency, and Super El Nino did not produce.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: It produced a very dry winter, one of the driest winters in Southern California's history, as there is this feature that the LRC can pick out that prevented storms from hitting Southern California.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: So there is some hidden miss.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: Which one will it be?
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: Will it be the 90, 80, 1982, 83 version, the 1997-98 version, or the drier 2015, 2016 version?
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: This is where the LRC comes into play, Davis.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: In October and November, we will start noticing.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: And you out there, you can see this yourself and experience it.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: In October and November, if it's extremely dry and warm where you live, that's a sign of things to come for the year ahead.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: If storm systems start hitting us, even if it takes to November 1st or November 10th or November 15th, that is a sign that digestion's getting stronger, and El Nino's influence is going to start you know flexing its muscles over you.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: So we will be able to figure that out.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's what the LRC and Weather 2020 will be able to provide.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: Whereas others have no idea, you know.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_00: Gary, it's it's September 29th.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: October is right around the corner here.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: You you'll be getting harvesting some very key, very important data really soon.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna pull up a slide here.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: Rodrigo, can you pull up that that weather slide, the precipitation slide here, really quick?
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because I I've heard the forecast there's a hurricane or something that's pushing moisture inland from from California, from the Baja area, almost maybe headed headed our direction.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: Is it too soon to call that a precursor?
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, it's too soon.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: Too soon, yeah.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: Hurricane Polo just came blasting in.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, here's the here's the hurricane polo.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: You can see down over Mexico, that west coast of Mexico, and that little it looks like a little fish down there.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: But that that that that red, the red with the bright red in the middle area coming into Mexico is aims right up towards Des Moines, Iowa, across western Kansas, and there's going to be some flooding over Arizona and New Mexico.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: This is, yes, it's late September.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: It might have a little bit of a recur recurring feature as we go into the rest of the year, but what happens?
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's October 5th, 6th, or 7th.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: That really is the beginning.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_01: So this is caught at the end of last year's weather pattern.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: And polo coming up is going to cause some harvest delays over northern Missouri, southern Iowa, northern Kansas, southern Nebraska, and areas where the fields are already wet.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_01: So it's going to definitely cause a harvest delay.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_01: The good news for harvest, and those of you wondering, after this system goes by, it does look dry for the next 10 to 12 days.
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_01: So we likely won't, we might be able to get a lot of that harvest in, but a little delayed.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: Just a little more on the El Nino, from what I've heard from other sources, there is a certain heightened risk for volatile, perhaps wintry weather in areas further south, even further south than than KC.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: Is that something that that those southern areas need to be looking out for?
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: What happens with El Nino, because it's you know what ignites it is the warm tropical Pacific Ocean, it tends to cause the jet stream to be stronger farther south, but also to split.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_01: And if we have split flow, then it allows the colder air to stay up to the north, but enough of it to get down to the south, if enough of it gets down to the south, and the LRC sets up in the proper way, then we can see stronger winter potential across the southern United States.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, it'll be a cold rain and it won't be winter weather impacting.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: But we got to watch for that.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_01: But remember what happens.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: October and November will be cycle one.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to evolve.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_01: Then there will be a cycle two.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: And how do you identify cycle two?
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_01: Last year there was this major storm near San Francisco on October 14th.
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_01: I told friends that were coming to Lake Tahoe to go skiing.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_01: I said, that is due back around early to mid-December because usually the cycle lengths 45 to 60 days, somewhere in there.
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_01: This year happened to be 76 days.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: So we waited all the way to Christmas.
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_01: And then last year, a big, huge warm-up on Christmas, but California had the repeat of that storm, and that's how we knew cycle two began.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: So then cycle two begins, and now we can make these predictions.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: Where we're the most accurate is predicting when and where severe weather outbreaks will happen.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_01: So we're not up to 90% accurate at predicting these because what happens in October, November, and December, there will be five to seven stretches that have severe weather with tornadoes.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: They happen during the fall and winter every year.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: They just don't happen as often as they do in the spring.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: But those seeds, weather seeds, will be planted and then they will sprout in each cycle going forward.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: So that's how we can predict winter storms, severe weather outbreaks, and hurricanes the next season.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: Pulling back to the LRC, and I'm sure that in your research, there are there are outliers.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: This summer's heat.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: Did the LRC see that coming?
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: And can it offer some explanation?
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_00: Or because gosh, I mean, Gary, that it was awful there for a while.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: We had a pretty nasty here in NKC for about two weeks, and then for about two weeks again a little bit later on.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_00: But gosh, down in the panhandle areas, Oklahoma, Texas, they were having 30 plus days over 100 degrees.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I wonder if the if the LRC had anything to say about that.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: The weather seed of a heat wave was planted when that storm hit San Francisco that I just talked about, October 14th.
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_01: And then when it returned Christmas, there was a huge ridge that developed over the United States.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: We had record-breaking heat in Kansas City.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think it was near 70, it was 76 degrees in Wichita, Kansas, around Christmas Day.
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_01: And that part of the pattern, I was at the National Storm Chaser Summit in Denver speaking, and I predicted that, and I was at FarmCon in early January.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: At farm con, I said, take a picture of this, and I showed the heat wave that would return this summer around the first week of August, and that returned.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: Then the gesture is so strong, so weak at that point.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's at its weakest point at the end of July and early August.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_01: Once it built Davis, it got stuck, and that's why it hung around for a couple extra weeks.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_01: But it's gone now, thank goodness.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, thank heavens.
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, that was that was awful for a while.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_00: I was saying my prayers, you know, included in my prayer requests, were please, please break the heat.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_00: Please, at some point, please break it.
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_00: And we're feeling feeling much better now.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_00: Much cooler.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_00: We've got the windows open and everything.
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_00: One more thing on the El Nino, and knowing, you know, having heard what you said, the the pattern is set, and we're not quite at pattern set time just yet.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_00: But if we're talking analog years and if we're talking about cycles, is there's some level of predictability as to what happens after a super El Nino.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_00: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction, or so you know, my my physics teacher told me, who am I kidding?
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't take physics.
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard that, you know, I've heard it said.
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_00: So can we expect gnarliness to the other side once the Super El Nino blows through and blows over, or does it work like that?
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_01: The climate models are showing the prediction that El Nino will fade by February, March, and April, and by next summer we'll already be heading towards neutral or La Nina.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_01: La Nina seems to happen more often than El Nino's do.
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_01: And La Nina is the exact opposite, and it uh La Niña is bad for the agriculture belt because it increases the probability of drought.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_01: El Nino sl slightly decreases the probability of drought.
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: So that's one thing to look for for the spring is you know, less likelihood of drought, but let's see where the LRC sets up, and then we'll know which regions are more susceptible to drought.
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_01: But next summer, with El Nino fading and La Nina growing, there's some potential for hurricane season to become much more active, and it's been so quiet.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: This quiet hurricane season, not one hurricane in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean, and the Gulf.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, not one hurricane.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_01: There has not been one hurricane.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think I'm not sure if there's ever been a season without one.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: There still may be one down the line.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_01: Remember now, the new LRC sets up in the next week to two weeks.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: So something different's going to happen in the tropics.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: Already hints of next hurricane season are going to start being planted in the next two to three weeks.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_01: So we might finally get our first hurricane three or four weeks from now, and it will be because the it will be a sign that the pattern changed.
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: I want to get into other parts of the world, particularly South America.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_00: I I want to just see if you'll we've already talked a little bit about the winter forecast.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: I want to see if I can pin you down maybe on some generalizations around first freezes, but let's divert for just a moment.
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: I know you loved your your career in broadcasting.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: Do you miss being on TV?
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: Not at all.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: Even though we're launching Leezacweather.com and I'm going to be broadcasting in a different way.
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_01: Let me know when you want to talk about it.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk about that in a second.
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's where I was headed.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_00: You're in my head, buddy boy.
• 38:02
  SPEAKER_01: Well, then Leezacweather.com is launching right now.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_01: People in Kansas City know me.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's what we decided to name it Leezacweather.com, so they'll know exactly what it is.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: But it's it's also national.
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, and I'll still be talking about the LRC, but I'm going to throw people to Weather 2020 for most of that discussion.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: But LeeZacweather.com is going to be the weather disruption of the Kansas City market.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: Why?
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: Because people that are in their teens and 20s and 30s don't watch TV anymore.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: They get their weather through Facebook and TikTok and Instagram and X and YouTube.
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to be streaming live on all those platforms.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to have a morning show featuring Rainbow and Sunny the Weather Dogs.
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, we're going to have a little camera sponsored by Wayside Wafes, uh Animal Show.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: I already got them as a sponsor.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll get other sponsors.
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to sponsor, let me know.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: But we're launching Thursday morning, October 1st, and I'm going to have a 10-15-minute morning show, which is going to be me broadcasting from right here.
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: I'll be looking a different way towards my studio, but but we'll be launching, and I'll be having the Kansas City weather, maybe the Denver Minute, the Los Angeles Minute, because that's where I'm from, and then get to the Chiefs take on sports and my take on the Chiefs, and then have viewer interactions.
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not coming back to TV per se, but I'm going to be streaming because I sit here for eight hours a day looking at the weather.
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, hey, this is the new trend.
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_01: This is the way weather's going to be done in the future, and I want to be part of it.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_00: I get the sense that that you'd be sitting there eight hours a day looking at the weather, whether there was a camera involved or not, Gary.
• 39:43
  SPEAKER_00: You really love this stuff.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the camera just happens to be there.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_01: Some people want to some people want to be on camera.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_01: I never necessarily did.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_01: I just wanted to tell people about the weather, so I get to do it.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_00: We're uh we're all better for it.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: And your enthusiasm definitely is it's very encouraging for all of us, and uh, we we benefit from it.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's last last thing, Davis.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh yes, your question about South America.
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_00: Just know I was gonna take us there.
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_00: You would see you've got that broadcaster's instinct.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_00: We should uh yeah, yeah.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: We should probably never play cards.
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_00: Like I can never beat you.
• 40:17
  SPEAKER_01: I'll know what you have.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I have an ace deuce, but you got two deuces, and you're gonna You know it.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_01: You know it.
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, the Southern Hemisphere has its own LRC.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: The the jet stream and the weather pattern sets up down there, the exact opposite of the northern hemisphere.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_01: So their spring is the beginning of the new weather pattern.
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_01: Our fall is beginning a new weather pattern.
• 40:43
  SPEAKER_01: They don't really interact.
• 40:45
  SPEAKER_01: There may be some interaction.
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't found it yet, but Brazil is already in its first two, its first cycle of this year's pattern, and now it's into its second or third cycle because it started in March and April, and by May and June, it was established, so we're in the second or third cycle.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_01: So what's been going on in Brazil will continue to go on now, all the way to next spring, whereas our weather pattern is setting up right now.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: So uh you can look at that, and we our model does forecast the weather down there too.
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_00: If we're looking at as farmers as Brazil and Argentina being some pretty, especially Brazil, some pretty hefty export competition, we don't wish ill on them at all.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm wondering, does it does it set up or seem to set up as favorable, unfavorable for crop growings down there in uh the Brazil zone?
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_01: I am not sure.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_01: I have not studied down there.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff Penner has, my cohort.
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_01: So we could ask him, he'd probably know that question, the answer right away, but I'm not sure how it's doing this year, but just know the pattern of cycling down there too, and what has been happening recently will continue to happen.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, that's helpful.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_00: That's helpful.
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_00: Let's okay.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_00: So if I'm hearing you, I've got a let's see, about a 60s or so 65 chance here in Kansas City at a white Christmas at this point, based on these analog years that we've talked about.
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_00: Does that seem about right to you?
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's very high.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, 65.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the typical year is about a 15% chance in Kansas City.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_01: Once every you know, seven or eight years, maybe there's a possibility of a white Christmas.
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_01: With El Nino, it completely depends on the LRC.
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_01: Remember in 2015-2016 winter, there was only 5.9 inches of snow in Kansas City, and that was a super El Nino.
• 42:38
  unknown: Right.
• 42:39
  SPEAKER_01: So if you look at that and you look at the other two analog years, we'll have to go see what happened around Christmas then.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_01: But I want a white Christmas too.
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna have a snowflake contest, and it better snow before Christmas is all I got to say.
• 42:53
  SPEAKER_00: We the wife and I every year have made a habit.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_00: We either go see a Christmas carol or this year we're gonna go see the nutcracker.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_00: We saw the nutcracker last year, liked it so much.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_00: We're we've signed up again to go and see it.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_00: But then after that, we go see a matinee, and then after that, we spend the evening sort of milling around uh Union Station at the Christmas display down there.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_00: We love to see the trains.
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's really nice.
• 43:14
  SPEAKER_00: There was the first year that I was down here that that we were married, we did that, and there was just the most lovely, gentle snowfall in the evening as we were making our way through the town, and it was it was lovely.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_00: We held hands, we kissed a little.
• 43:29
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'll admit it, I'll just say it.
• 43:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's awesome.
• 43:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's so romantic.
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_01: It really was.
• 43:40
  SPEAKER_00: It does, it absolutely does.
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_00: Real quick, but before we move on, let's talk first frost.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_00: How and maybe we should talk deviation from normal given the impact of the Super El Nino.
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to me about the Corn Belt, talk to me about wherever you're comfortable talking about first frost.
• 44:05
  SPEAKER_00: What might we be expecting?
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_00: I know it's a little early to be asked.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_00: Asking this, but but some are already getting frosts overnight, so it may be a softball.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_00: Can we talk about first frost?
• 44:17
  SPEAKER_01: Hey Davis, this is the thing.
• 44:19
  SPEAKER_01: The LRC hasn't set up yet.
• 44:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I if there's any gray area, it's October.
• 44:26
  SPEAKER_01: By mid to late October, early November, we may start seeing enough of the pattern to be able to predict the few weeks to months ahead.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_01: But right now it's completely a gray area and is a throwing of the dart for that forecast.
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_01: Now, with El Nino, the trend is often warmer than average.
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_01: So the first frost or freeze may may there may be a threat, but then all of a sudden it may be mid-November before we have it.
• 44:54
  SPEAKER_01: So right now, just the because of El Nino, you would think it might be warmer than normal.
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_01: And the trend the last few years has been warmer than normal.
• 45:04
  SPEAKER_01: So, but in about two weeks, we'll be one week into the LRC, and we'll start to be able to see what this new pattern really is.
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_01: Literally, everyone out there, you're about to experience the miracle of the weather pattern setting up every year.
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_01: The pattern we're about to set up into has never happened before, and so it's unique.
• 45:27
  SPEAKER_01: So you can compare to analog years, but there really is only one analog year, and that's this year.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_01: And once we know what it is, then we can predict, based on this year's pattern, what's going to happen in January, February, all the way to September, which is gold for agriculture.
• 45:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_00: Can I tell you what I appreciate about that that answer, Gary?
• 45:47
  SPEAKER_00: Because you know, we could we could sum it up by you saying, Well, I don't quite know at this point.
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_00: The people who say who are willing to say I don't know, are the sorts of people that I tend to trust.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_00: And usually it it indicates that they know other things and they know from where they've derived that knowledge, they know what they know, and and I think maybe stacked on top of that is that willingness to when you don't know, you just say you don't know.
• 46:25
  SPEAKER_00: I really appreciate that about you.
• 46:26
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of random, random affirmation there.
• 46:29
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're wondering if the LRC is real, and by all your whole audience out there, a good 90% might think, what?
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_01: No, there's no way that could happen.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_01: Who would make up something like the LRC, where I'm telling you October and November is the gray area?
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: Really?
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I all it's it sort of proves it out.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_01: It sets up in October, November.
• 46:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'm telling you in October, November, I can't predict the weather using the LRC.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_01: Now I can tell you what El Nino might mean, what what I'm seeing in the patterns, but we can't use the LRC until it sets up.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I wish it set up earlier.
• 47:09
  SPEAKER_01: Believe me, we're looking back to August and September.
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_01: It is evolving right now.
• 47:14
  SPEAKER_01: The pattern is evolving.
• 47:15
  SPEAKER_01: So we're about 35, 40 brand new pattern, but we're still 55, 60 the old pattern.
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 47:23
  SPEAKER_01: October 5th, 6th, or 7th, it becomes 51% new pattern and it takes over from there.
• 47:30
  SPEAKER_00: Beautiful, beautiful.
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let me let me just mention these one more time.
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_00: Weather2020.com, weather2020.com, and of course, leazacweather.com.
• 47:43
  SPEAKER_00: Now, did you say I'm I'm sorry, I may have dozed off for just a moment as I want to do.
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's not you, it's me.
• 47:50
  SPEAKER_00: Um leezacweather.com.
• 47:52
  SPEAKER_00: Have you have you started posting to lezacweather.com or is this yet forthcoming?
• 47:57
  SPEAKER_01: It just launched, it just launched as we are speaking.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: On September the, what is it?
• 48:02
  SPEAKER_01: September the 29th.
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_01: It just launched.
• 48:05
  SPEAKER_01: So it's out.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_01: My first video was on there after this is over.
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_01: There's thunderstorms coming into Kansas City right now.
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_01: I might want to do an update and see if it goes on to my site because maybe we just launched it.
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_01: It should go on to the site live.
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_01: And the the way we're going to win, and I dedicate myself to this, and it's this is where it's much better than working at a TV station.
• 48:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 48:29
  SPEAKER_01: Let me tell you, give me about a minute for this.
• 48:31
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, go ahead.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_01: Here's how it's when there is a severe weather threat and there's a tornado threat, you know, like Max Velocity and Wyatt Hall, y'all do now nationally, we will be there.
• 48:43
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff Penner and I are going to be there to you know soothe the the consciousness of the viewers.
• 48:51
  SPEAKER_01: Any if there is a tornado threat, we'll take you through it.
• 48:54
  SPEAKER_01: If there's snow developing, we'll take you through the developing snow.
• 48:58
  SPEAKER_01: And and uh we'll be on live for you know hours perhaps.
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so people are gonna be relying on us at leasacweather.com.
• 49:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's gonna be our passion.
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_01: That's how we're going to win.
• 49:10
  SPEAKER_01: But it's launching now, it's a very exciting venture, and it's gonna be the new way of doing the weather.
• 49:17
  SPEAKER_01: In about 10 years, TV is gonna be TV will probably be doing it this way, is what they're gonna be doing.
• 49:24
  unknown: Yeah.
• 49:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's uh that's kind of what I'm what I'm putting my chips on as well, doing something like this.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is like you said, you know, nobody nobody watches TV anymore, not the way that they used to.
• 49:36
  SPEAKER_00: And and this is this is kind of the way, especially the especially the younger folk out there.
• 49:41
  SPEAKER_00: I I tell you.
• 49:42
  SPEAKER_00: They uh yeah, they're they well they want they want choices, but at the same time, they still kind of want the the same things that that broadcasting in its traditional sense gave us, which is people that we can trust, people who give us information that we can hold on to.
• 49:59
  SPEAKER_00: And and I I really appreciate your ability to do that.
• 50:04
  SPEAKER_00: You're you're bringing the old school into the new school, is what you're doing.
• 50:07
  SPEAKER_00: LizacWeather.com.
• 50:09
  SPEAKER_00: Gary, make sure I spell it right.
• 50:11
  SPEAKER_00: L-E-Z-A-K weather.com.
• 50:16
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 50:17
  SPEAKER_00: And also weather2020.com, leasacweather.com, and weather2020.com.
• 50:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'd I'd love to give you just one more moment.
• 50:27
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna move on to some nonsense here, but is there is there anything else that you would like to say?
• 50:32
  SPEAKER_00: Anything we didn't quite get covered here, Gary, I'd like for you to have a last word before we move on.
• 50:37
  SPEAKER_01: Now I I am sure, I am sure there are things, but I'm loving, I'm loving this conversation.
• 50:43
  SPEAKER_01: Just know that I also pour my passion into that that uh weather 2020 intelligence report again.
• 50:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's weather 20, weather2020.substack.com.
• 50:53
  SPEAKER_01: It does cost$300 a year.
• 50:55
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes we offer holiday discounts if you want to wait, but you read that every week within a few weeks.
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_01: Number one, you're gonna see the new LRC because the roulette wheel of weather starts spinning.
• 51:07
  SPEAKER_01: Is it gonna land in cold and dry, cold and wet, wet and warm, or wet warm and dry?
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_01: Which slot on the roulette wheel is it gonna fall into?
• 51:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna take you through that.
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_01: That's weather2020.substack.com.
• 51:20
  SPEAKER_01: I, as I said, I pour my heart into that.
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's going on.
• 51:23
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, you know, I think we covered a lot.
• 51:26
  SPEAKER_01: I I appreciate it.
• 51:27
  SPEAKER_01: There's nothing else.
• 51:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just mildly sweaty from our conversation.
• 51:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure why I got all got all worked up.
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let's uh let's move on then, Gary.
• 51:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to uh end the program with kind of some items of mild interest, things you didn't necessarily need to know, but uh, you know, from this date in history, a few things.
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_00: If you're if you're up for it, I'd like to throw a couple at you.
• 51:50
  SPEAKER_00: On the topic of science.
• 51:53
  SPEAKER_00: Today's the birthday in 1901 of Enrico Fermi, Italian American physicist, Nobel Prize laureate, born this day in 1901.
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_00: Here's a quote from Mr.
• 52:07
  SPEAKER_00: Fermi quote never underestimate the joy people derive from hearing something they already know.
• 52:15
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, that feels very cynical to me.
• 52:19
  SPEAKER_00: And a guy, okay, and a guy who's trying to explain stuff like we see here on our screen.
• 52:24
  SPEAKER_00: If I'm sitting in that room, I would welcome something that I already know compared to that.
• 52:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think maybe that's what's gotten into him there.
• 52:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, I know.
• 52:33
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what that equation is, but my big I don't either.
• 52:35
  SPEAKER_00: I don't either Fermi.
• 52:37
  SPEAKER_00: Fermi, yeah, today it's his birthday.
• 52:39
  SPEAKER_00: In sept in September, in fact, the 29th, 1996, the Nintendo 64 was released.
• 52:47
  SPEAKER_00: And here we go.
• 52:48
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go on to this.
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if this is gonna resonate with anyone or not, but the most dipped into sauce is ketchup.
• 52:55
  SPEAKER_00: The most dipped item is chips, potato chips or corn chips, yet, not many people have dipped their potato chips in ketchup.
• 53:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's true, even though everybody's dipped fries into ketchup.
• 53:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, potato chips, potato chips go into French onion dip, go into the cheese dip, going all over the place.
• 53:14
  SPEAKER_01: But fries, you you rarely dip them into the cheese.
• 53:17
  SPEAKER_01: You might have cheese on top of them, but you rarely, it's usually ketchup only.
• 53:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly right.
• 53:22
  SPEAKER_00: And just one more, I don't have this in my notes, but I did read it as I was doing some show prep.
• 53:28
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned Star Wars, the original LRC started on a Star Wars calendar, as I recall.
• 53:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I read that the reason that they ended The Empire Strikes Back by putting Han Solo in the Carbonite freeze, right?
• 53:44
  SPEAKER_00: Was because they weren't sure if Harrison Ford was gonna come back for Return of the Jedi.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 53:50
  SPEAKER_00: Have you ever heard that theory?
• 53:51
  SPEAKER_01: No, but I don't know if there's any truth to it or not.
• 53:54
  SPEAKER_01: They had to leave that option in there.
• 53:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine, you know, if if his last line, Princess Leia, says, I love you, and he says, I know.
• 54:05
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the last we see of Han Solo.
• 54:07
  SPEAKER_00: No, isn't it?
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's no way to end it.
• 54:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's no way to end it.
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_01: I love Star Wars the original best, in my opinion.
• 54:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 54:15
  SPEAKER_00: I like them all.
• 54:16
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta be honest.
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'll I'll take them all.
• 54:18
  SPEAKER_00: Some are obviously better than others, but I'm just glad to have more of the story filled in with uh with the new ones and the sequels and prequels all that.
• 54:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 54:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm pretty easy, I'm not much of a film snob, not much of an anything snob, really.
• 54:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'll eat catch up all day long.
• 54:32
  SPEAKER_00: I don't mind, I don't mind it a bit.
• 54:34
  SPEAKER_00: Gary Leezak from Weather2020, weather2020.com.
• 54:38
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody check it out.
• 54:39
  SPEAKER_00: Leezakweather.com, L-E-Z-A-K Weather.com is where it's at.
• 54:46
  SPEAKER_00: Brother, thank you so much for spending some time with us, for sharing your knowledge with us.
• 54:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I think what's gonna have to happen here is we're gonna have to have you back in a couple of months when the pattern begins to establish, and maybe we can talk uh some specifics for planting and for summer up ahead.
• 55:02
  SPEAKER_00: What say?
• 55:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that sounds fantastic, and we'll know what those weather seeds are.
• 55:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know, this is something that's evolved the last few years, but more than ever, we'll be able to predict what's going to happen based on these weather seeds.
• 55:15
  SPEAKER_01: So we can go over that in a couple months.
• 55:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm very excited to do that with you.
• 55:18
  SPEAKER_01: It'd be great.
• 55:19
  SPEAKER_00: Excellent, excellent, Gary Lizak.
• 55:21
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much for being on AgSquawk in the afternoon today.
• 55:25
  SPEAKER_00: Also, a special thanks to Trade the News for keeping me and my squad totally informed.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is news you can use.
• 55:33
  SPEAKER_00: Use Trade the News for useful news.
• 55:36
  SPEAKER_00: And may I also direct you to take your marketing by the horns with Ag Bull?
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_00: Visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm.
• 55:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's 855-737-FAR, followed by the letter M for the details.
• 55:51
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell will have the morning calls bright and early for y'all.
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_00: And then I'll talk to myself about fertilizer and fuels tomorrow afternoon.
• 55:59
  SPEAKER_00: You're not going to want to miss that.
• 56:00
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody, come on back for more Ag Squawk tomorrow.