Latest / Minnows Football / Fired up, ready to roll: Top to bottom in the Championship as we enter the second phase

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Fired up, ready to roll: Top to bottom in the Championship as we enter the second phase · Minnows Football

• Sam: Welcome along to the Minnows Football Show. I am your host, Sam Martin. It's Thursday, October 8th, and we are back after the international break, which was a very exciting break. And a time for obviously some international football to be played, but also a time for clubs to reflect on where they sit going into this next stage of the season. And so that's what we wanted to talk about today is that we've had two months basically, eight games for almost every single club. Seven games for two clubs for some reason, but eight games for almost every single club. We've got a period of a couple of months here running up to the transfer window where these clubs are going to be going at it to really start to jostle for position and figure out who are they this season. And so I wanted to dig into that a little bit and think about what we've seen and what's coming up. And I wanted to look at who has the most at stake across this next period of time. And so where where does every club want to be by the end of December? You know, we're at stage right now where there is no club yet in the EFL championship that you would say if they're being truly honest with themselves is planning for failure this year. Every club still has so much to play for. Everyone's still planning to win, everyone's still planning to execute on their version of winning for the season. So we're gonna go top to bottom. We've broken the the clubs up into four different groups. thinking about where they want to be by the end of this year after the next two months. We've got a group of clubs setting up for a title run, a group of clubs setting up for a playoff run, a group of clubs that'd be happy solidifying themselves in the mid-table, and then a group of clubs that would be happy escaping the death zone, escaping relegation. So we're gonna go top to bottom. Some clubs we're gonna pause on longer than other clubs, and some we're gonna sort of Dig into just briefly and kind of move on. So let's start at the top. We're gonna go top to bottom. Teams who want to or expect to be setting up for a title run by the end of December. There's no real surprises in this group. I'll I'll tell you who they are up top. I've got West Ham, Middlesbrough, Wolves, Swansea, Millwall, and Southampton in this group. So six clubs in this group. One, two, three, four, five, six. And No real surprises, I think, either in the names or for what's at stake for these guys. So you've got West Ham and Wolves for obvious reasons. They need to go back up. for financial reasons, for expectation reasons, especially financially, or else it all starts to kind of implode on them. they've got some reasonable runs coming up. West Ham next five are against QPR, Lincoln, Swansea, Southampton, and West Brom. They would be thinking they could win at least Three, maybe three and a half, maybe four. I'm sure that they're thinking they're gonna win all five. But that's a a solid run with at least three wins there, they would think out of those five. Wolves next five, Middlesbrough, Bolton, Burnley, Portsmouth, and Watford, even more sort of kind to them. So that's two clubs who just feel like don't think we have to go into too much detail with kind of where they've been. They they just They're two clubs that expect to get promoted this season. They expect to take those first two spots. Middlesbrough and Millwall, their expectation at the end of December is well they're in a position to win this league because for them, for both those clubs, the time is now. They've been building towards these points over a number of seasons. And in Middlesbrough's case, they look ready. They look ready to roll and look like one of the form clubs exiting the first couple of months. Their next five games against Wolves, Stoke, Cardiff. Bolton and Charlton. A pretty nice run there. And they feel should probably feel like they can they can win all five of those. In Millwall's case, we talked about this a lot in previous episodes, but they got hit by injuries. Some of those injuries are getting better, some aren't. The ultimate test for Alex Neal over the next eight weeks is can they play consistent football? And they've got Preston first up this weekend, which you would have to pencil in as as Probably a win for them, but Preston we'll get to at the very end of this podcast. But they're coming off hiring a new manager, kind of hitting the bottom of the barrel in the first eight weeks. So we don't know what will happen there. But they've got Preston, Swansea, Lincoln, Portsmouth, and Derby. A also a kind of a kind run for them. And so in the next five, if Millwall can win three or four of those, they'll be exactly where they want to be as they hopefully get healthy. Going into November, December. So those two clubs are are expecting to kind of fulfill on what it seems like is their, at least on paper, their destiny of being a club that can get automatic promotion at the end of this season. Southampton, huge news obviously this week with Southampton with Eckett only receiving a suspended sentence. Not sure how much I'm gonna get into whether I feel that's fair or not. it does feel light for what's clearly breaching rules. And so whatever way you spin it, certainly if you're a Southampton fan, you're ecstatic with that result. And you feel like with the minus four points being a sort of a minimal deduction, and then Eckett getting this suspended sentence, you know, they were talking a couple of weeks ago. They're talking about bringing in Rob Edwards for a season if Eckett was gone all season. So they're in a position where they've really been able to now Feel like they can move past the Spygate scandal, put their foot on the gas. And as we talked about a lot in the first part of the season, they looked like one of the form teams and one of the more class sides out there in the championship this year. Outside of West Ham, I still think they have the highest ceiling in terms of player skill, skill and onfield potential. So their next five, they play Portsmouth, Norwich, Bolton, West Ham, and QPR. And they feel like they're favored in in every game apart from the West Ham game, probably in there. And then the last the last team in this in this group, and I'm kind of ripping through this group because I want to get into what I think are more interesting questions further down the table. These kinds of guys are kind of it's kind of table stakes that they're they're vying for that top spot. But is Swansea, who is actually top of the table, their their question is are they really a legit team and that's what we're going to see over the next couple of months here. They started so hot. They've got this hot young coach in Vito Matos. they look like they've put all the different pieces together. And we've seen this from other clubs in the past that have started really hot and then and then cooled off. We even saw it at the beginning of this season with Charlton winning their first three games. Now that's a very small sample size, but Swansea looks good. They look like they're built up to have some sustained success. Can they keep it going? through this next couple of months and then into the new year. Their next five games, Norwich at home, then Millwall, West Ham, QPR, and Blackburn. That's a slightly harder group of games, especially against well, Norwich, anything can happen. Millwall and West Ham are two class sides. QPR is definitely vying to be a class side, and Blackburn is organized and ha has exceeded expectations. So not an easy run for the next five games for Swansea. But they've got an elite defense they can create in many different ways. So there's I think there's a lot of positive signs for them. But that's what they're expecting going into this this next group of games. So then we come to the next group setting up for a strong run at the playoffs. And I this is a much bigger group. I'm not gonna name them all at the top. I'm gonna go down one by one. But I think almost every team in here is surprising in one way or another. And this is a group that has many clubs that are they kind of fall into one of two camps. In one camp, they probably weren't expecting to be at such a strong position at this point of the season, two months in. And they're playing with a little bit of house money. They're saying, wow, we can really push this season into places where maybe we didn't expect that we might get. On the other side, you've got a bunch of clubs who are further down the table. But expect to definitely be making a run at the playoffs this season, based on the amount of money they've invested, based on how they finished last year, based on their managers, fan expectations, et cetera. So we'll go through each club in here. There's seven or eight clubs, I think, in here, seven clubs in here. We're gonna start with West Brom, who's had a fantastic run in the first couple of months. James Morrison's created an identity for this team and That identity is a really exciting identity that I feel like fans can really get behind. It's a free-flowing identity. They've got this twin front line of Jimmy J. Morgan and Hedgebo. They've got real width. They've got a high tempo play, multiple touches inside the opposition box. They're not just, you know, fanging it down the wing and putting a cross in. They're really playing in a way that looks methodical, looks intentional, it's fast, it's direct, it's exciting. And and they're they've They've had great results so far and exceeded a lot of expectations going into the season. XG tells us they are overperforming, so they're converting at a really good clip. and their opponents should be more effective and should be more efficient at finishing. they're actually they're top of the table in terms of outperforming, their goal scored. And this is the question for the squad as you look into this next part of the season. You know, it's a slightly thin squad. You've got New manager and a young manager who is kind of a bastion of the club and has created this identity. You've got this this team playing really well. They've been lucky on the pitch in terms of of XG. How long can this luck last? How long can we ride this wave? And can they keep it going so they can have a strong run at the playoffs? You know, this is a club that we I think was in how Bookies were looking at them early in the season that were predicted to finish in the bottom six. By a lot of bookmakers. So, you know, they're pushing well above their expectation. Or will the luck run out? Is this squad too thin? And what other things can they do to kind of keep this, keep this train on the tracks? But it's an exciting story so far. It's kind of like I I if I had to kind of switch places, I think it's the way that Norwich would really like to be able to play and execute and get results. You know, Morrison's found a way to get. The kind of excitement of a of a team like Norwich, but the results that they're not getting in terms of winning the tough ones and drawing the potential losses. So they're an exciting team to watch going into this next little run. Their next five games are against Birmingham, Wrexham, Blackburn, Preston, and West Ham. That's a tough run. And that will really test whether or not this is real. So so more to come there. Next team, QPR. You'd take you'd take where QPR at this stage of the season going into October, if you were back in early August. We knew that Julian Stefan could bring this like attacking, vibrant form of football to QPR if he was given the chance, if he was given the the off season to build the the list that he wanted. but what's more encouraging, I think, for Hoops fans than just Stefan bringing this exciting way of playing is that they've been a resilient team for the first couple of months as well. They're seventh in XG. They've scored 10 goals across eight games. So they're getting the ball in the back of the net and they're creating chances at the same time. And they're showing this resilience that they might not have had in prior seasons. Or or it might not be that, but it might be more that you didn't necessarily associate with Stefan's sides. Like you associate it with him with exciting football, but you didn't necessarily associate him with having this resilience. You know, if you look at that game against Preston before the international break. They were two down early. They lost a player to a red card in the fifteenth minute, and they still fought back to draw two two with a nineth minute equalizer from Paul Smith. And this is a really different QPR to what we saw. It's a little while ago now, but what we saw under Marty Cifuentes. And, you know, Cifuentes was he wanted to play the game the right way in adverted commas, this kind of beautiful form of football, but he was very rigid. he had kind of Croffian tactics, Croefian instincts. And that's what so drove so much press around him when he kept I don't know if you remember, but when he kept QP up, QPR up, and he was playing this beautiful form of football, everyone was like, Wow, this is definitely in an inevitable Premier League manager. Well, he's here down the road from me right now in Portland, managing the Portland Timbers, I think last I checked. Though if that doesn't work, it all falls apart very quickly. Stefan is is much more pragmatic. He's practical. He's a modern manager as well, but he knows that it's important to win at all costs. And the championship has a record, a track record of of rewarding those kind of managers. And so it's great to see that he's instilled this sense of resilience in this squad alongside some of the really nice looking, beautiful football that we've seen them play. So I'm excited to see how far he can take this squad, how far they can push into the top part of the table. Their next five games is a bit of a gauntlet. They play West Ham, Derby at home, Birmingham City away, Swansea at home, and then Southampton away. So that's gonna be a tough run. but they've proven that they're up to the task with with sort of the best in the season. So we will we will see how they go in that in that run. Stoke City. So they're saying all the right things in Stoke City. there was an article, or it was probably a radio interview, I think, with BBC Radio Stoke this week where midfielder Jabril Samare said, you know, there's love in the dressing room, there's a togetherness, they're a family on and off the pitch. And of course, that's nice to say here when they've had such a great run of late. It wasn't that way in terms of results. They lost, had three straight losses to start, and it was looking potentially tough for Mark Robbins, but they have bounced back. They've won four of their last five, as well as a draw to Cardiff City. And in those four, they've beaten good clubs. Norwich City, Charlton, Watford, Sheffield United. They'll be happy that, you know, their summer signing of Ethan Galbraith has had a strong start. they splurged towards the end of the window, which which was a real signal of support. I feel like that you know, that ownership was ready to back Mark Robbins. They wanted midfielders who could be direct. So they they brought in Jack McGlynn from the MLS, who's worked out pretty well so far. Two goals, two match-winning goals, actually, 88% passing accuracy. Justin Deveny from Crystal Palace, he can attack and defend. He's a hard worker. He's kind of what Robbins wants there in the midfield. He's contributed two goals as well. And so when you look at at what those two players in particular have done and how they've remodeled, how Mark Robbins has remodeled that midfield and what that's allowed Stoke City to do. They it's pretty interesting. Look at the players that they've replaced. So they replaced Lewis Baker and Thomas Rigo. And the against those two players, McGlyn and Davini have done have had one and a half times the passes into the final third. For both of them almost double the shock creating actions. For Devenny, double the tackles and interceptions, and a better pass completion percentage for both of them. And so I think what you're seeing here, and to kind of oversimplify it, you're seeing a two different things. One is that Mark Robbins wants to play possession style of football, but he wants it to be direct and attacking. He wants to get into that opposition third. And in the previous midfield, we had a lot of, you would see a lot of the way they play. They'd be a little neutral or they would, you know. Become a little static on the ball, a lot of sideway passes, not penetrating in the same way Mark Robbins wanted them to. So he's got these two guys who are really powering that midfield forward, creating chances. They're doing a lot of things that when you we get into the bottom half of the table, you'll see that you kind of wish that those, that bottom half of of teams wish that they had that kind of shock creation. So they've found guys that do that. They work in Robbins' scheme. And it's so it's an exciting product that's coming together in Stoke. At first it felt like a bit of a fluke when they came and had the four nil victory on blanking over who it was against, but that one that kind of broke the tide of of the losses all in a row. but it has felt sustained over the last few weeks, and we will see how it goes here and if it can be sustained in the next period of games. And they've got Bolton to start this weekend away, Middlesbrough, Derby, Bristol City, and Preston. Not a bad runner, kind of on the on the slightly easier side. but exciting things happening there for Stoke City. Bristol City's next. Bristol City we've talked about a bit, very similar start to Stoke in terms of wins and losses. They've had four wins, one draw, three losses from their eight games. But as opposed to Stoke, where it felt like they started sloppily, poorly, however you want to describe it, something clicked and they really went on a run towards the the end of that little window. Bristol City's been a roller coaster, which is a little more frightening in a way, because is it really clicking? Are they getting lucky? What's happening? Are they what how are they forgetting things that they they might have otherwise learned? And we've talked a lot about Bristol City in the past, like that it's a complicated system that Skubala is trying to install here. And so maybe some of this inconsistency can be explained away as part of the the sort of strategic and tactical changes that he's trying to make. Remember, this is his first season here at Bristol City. He's he's getting his his squad up to up to speed. But it's been really up and down. And they've had big wins against top teams, big teams like Burnley. but then they'll pair that with a loss to Lincoln. Six of eleven goals from set pieces. They just hired a new, dedicated set piece coach, Ben King from Sheffield Wednesday. So they're doubling down on set pieces as a way to score. And they've got some players who kind of epitomize to me that up and down erratic rhythm so far. And they need to deliver they need to deliver with a little more consistency. And then I think Skubala needs to think about are there things he can do to enable them to deliver with more consistency or maybe simplify some of their roles. You've got guys like Scott T Scott Twine, who's been awesome in places and especially awesome from set pieces. And he looks really dynamic at times on the ball, but he can also go missing for large parts of the game. And isn't hasn't really established himself yet as someone who can consistently dictate the play and the tempo from open play in the way that they probably want him to be able to do that. They've got an identity problem of sorts up front where you've got Elijah Atabayo, who's physically dominant but can also go missing at times. You got Sam Greenwood who was, you know, he was in English football, then he was kind of exiled out to I think it was the Polish League or Hungarian League or something like that, of late. And then Skubala brought him back. And he's had some great moments and on paper he looks great, but he's playing out on the wing and they need him to consistently push, push, push and create more chances. he can he can beat defenders with pace, but then he can also go missing in the second half of games. And then at the back you've got Rob Dickey injured and Luke McNally trying to step in for him. And that's been tough for a player so young to really come in and and solidify this back. So Skubala's system is a complicated one. It it values direct play over possessions and over numbers. He wants to go from the f back to the front really quickly. So basically the ball is turned over at the back and it's get it forward. And then even if that results in a turnover, he wants his front to then press, get that ball back, and then through that transition and chaos, almost create a chaotic environment in the in the opponent's front third, and then use that to capitalize and score goals. And so that's that is a a form of of football that can look kind of hectic and chaotic at times. and can also work to effect. And I think that's really what you've seen in the first first couple of months. It's kind of like a high wire act and and can look inconsistent and and can have inconsistent results. So the you know, the questions coming together here is this is a team that really feels like internally they feel like they should be on the up and up. And will they be on the up and up coming into the new year? Or will they be still inconsistent? Or even worse, will they be starting to struggle and fall down the table? Their next five games, Charlton. this week away than Blackburn, Sheffield United, Stoke and Bolton, all five very winnable games. And so we'll know a lot if they're able to really put the foot down and accelerate over this next month or if they are still struggling to put it all together. The next three clubs, I think I've been kind and optimistic putting them in this group. I think they could have easily been put in the group down, which is solidifying mid table. So I'm being optimistic and I'm giving them a slight pass, but they're all based on how they would have felt going into this season. They expected to be where they expected to be in terms of the table. So the first club is Birmingham City. Two wins, five draws. they're Their belief for this next phase, I think, really turns into let's turn some of these draws into wins. And they've had some really tough, hard fought draws in their first first two months. They drew with Southampton, they drew with Wolverhampton, Drew with Middlesbrough. you know, you could look at their run and say they've had a pretty rough slate to start the season. And their next five is about as kind as it can get. You've got West Brom, who we know is good, but you know, they would think of themselves as a very good chance there. Preston, QPR, Cardiff, and Lincoln City. So a a kind next five in a perfect world, they would come out of that with three wins at least, maybe more. And so if you got to that end of that slate and they had five wins, five draws, three losses, something like that, that would look g really good and put them in a place to to challenge and push for the playoffs. Chris Davies in this squad, they're trying to do what so many clubs are trying to do right now, which is play direct football, play fast. they've brought in Liam Miller, who's been good with the the few opportunities he's gotten. Philip Newman's played well at the back and also gone up and scored a couple of goals. They've got this big sort of center back pairing, which has looked really impressive from set pieces. But even in s in most of their games and in and in their wins, they've looked scrappy. You know, the two one away win at Wrexham is an example of that. They found a way to win there, rather than really exerting their dominance over over their opposition. And as we said, they've had a a tough slate to start, but they'd really be looking to start to dominate a little bit more in this next month. And so they don't really strike me as a team that's ready to break out, but their the way their schedules has lined up, they could still break out over these next five games. So this is a real pivot point for them as they go into this next part of the season. Next club's similar kind of sentiment is Wrexham. Wrexham have a lot going on. We've talked about them in prior episodes. I've used the word chaotic a lot to describe them this season. And that's not necessarily all bad, and all chaos is not bad at all the time, but it's it's chaotic. That's a truth. And The chaos is not just limited to the pitch. You know, you've got these the two most high profile high profile owners in the league. They're building the cop. They had this huge transfer window with lots of players in and out. They're having to say goodbye to these kind of legendary players in the club who have done so much for them over so many years and have had their identities kind of tied really closely to the club. You know, guys like Paul Mullen, you know, leaving These are really impactful things in terms of the state of the fan base and the and the fan base mindset. And they're trying to integrate a lot of those new players in really cleanly while still keeping an identity of who they are. And the guy trying to hold that all together is Phil Parkinson, who after that West Ham game started to get, I think for the probably the first time in his history at at Wrexham, started to get some questions asked in the media about whether he was the right guy to to push. the team forward. And they've got more internationals in their squad than in previous years. So there's like a reintegration piece they didn't have to think about a couple of years ago about how to get those guys back in after a break like this. And they're dealing with injuries just like every other club. And so there was a good piece in the athletic this week. Phil Parkinson was quoted. He said, the fixtures have been tough. Millwall and Swansea both away in quick succession. Burnley and then going to West Ham for a fourth game in nine or ten days, then Southampton after that. You know, when he puts it like that, yeah, that is a tough slate, isn't it? Like that's a that's a tough group of games back to back. And they have had a tough run in the first couple of months. They would have really welcomed this breather. Almost no club. You can cut it hard to think of a club that more would have welcomed this international break than Wrexham. But they did show something in that last game where they went back from the drubbing that they'd received at at West Ham. To go back and beat Southampton. And that showed the kind of resilience that they're going to need going into this next stint of games. And on the pitch, strategically, they just need to find a way, more ways to create goals that it's a a common theme as we'll get into just further down the list. But there are a number of teams that just are not creating in particularly efficient ways right now. And Wrexham's one of them. They've scored nine goals in eight games. They're XGs in the bottom half of the league. Their struggles are in creating with real intent. So they they rank among the highest in the league for open play crosses, but their cross completion percentage is only 22%. So basically they're they're chucking it into the box a lot and they're hoping that Kiefer Moore's going to go up and and put one home. And they are a little one dimensional, it feels like, just watching them in this last this first couple of of months, where it feels like they have an over reliance on Elliot Lee to create. He the opposition knows that and will mark him very closely. They'll then move to the wings, but then there's a lack of willingness, it feels like, to keep the ball on the ground and go into the opposition box and try to create that way. There's an over reliance on on crosses into this this giant and dominant forward in Kiefer Moore. Josh Windass is is a guy who I think has to step up and find The form that he had last year and probably be given more opportunities to do that. Sam Smith, you could say the same thing. they need more variety in their diet. They need more variety in how they create. And they need that from those guys. They need it from Lewis O'Brien. They need it from Danny Imray. And we may see that. I think that, you know, what they said, what Parkinson said in terms of what he was going to do in the international break. was to really go away and and try and game plan, you know, how they're going to attack this next this next phase of the season. So next up they've got Derby, West Brom, Preston, Blackburn, and Sheffield United, all very winnable games for them. And they will know a lot more about their team at the end of those games. And, you know, are they truly a team that's pushing for promotion this year? And or are they going to be a team that's mid table, which by the way, a mid table result go back five years, we've said this a lot in terms of looking at the belief index and it's why they're ranked so highly in the belief index. But a mid table finish for this team is not the worst thing in the world. In fact, it's a fantastic thing. If you went back five years and said, Would you like to finish middle of the table in the championship? You're here in the National League, the answers would of course be a resounding yes. Let's move on to Norwich City. speaking of chaos, three wins, five losses, no draws. These guys do not draw. High voltage team, high octane team, all gas, no breaks, we might say. fourth in big chances created behind West Ham, Middlesbrough, and Millwall. We went into Norwich in a pretty deep dive in our last podcast. So we're not gonna hit too many more of those notes here. The big questions are really just can we lock it up a little bit more at the back or do we need can we just calm down? Can we find a way to play? Can Philip Clement plop find a way to play that doesn't create so many a attacking opportunities when they when we turn the ball over? And his attitude after that Bolton game was to point the finger at players. And so they're in a position now, they've lost their gun striker, Torrey's out for a number of months, most likely. So they're going to need to revamp up front. That could be seen as an opportunity to just maybe tweak our tactics a little bit and play in a slightly less chaotic way. But we'll who knows? Who knows what he's going to do? it's he wants to play. Clement wants to play this kind of track meet style where we're just cranking up and down the field, up and down the pitch every single game. And That creates a really physically demanding style of play for his players and it creates a an enormous amount of opportunities for his opponents. And what happens for opponents in that situation is that they feel like they're never out of the game. What was amazing about that 4-3 loss to Bolton is Bolton's a team that's been promoted. It's really well coached by Schumacher, but it's a team that's been promoted and should have moments of feeling overawed or like they can't come back in this game. They believe that entire time when they were down. That they could come back and win that game. And sure enough, they did. And that's what that that strategy does. It creates that belief in their opponents. And that's a tough thing to coach against. Next five games for Norwich, Swansea, Southampton, Portsmouth, Charlton, and Watford, they would see most of those as winnable games. These guys don't draw, so exciting times coming up for Canary fans. Okay, next group, solidifying mid-table. So these are clubs that would be seemingly quote unquote happy if coming out of December they are positioned to really take a spot in the middle of the table. And first cab off the ranks in this group is Charlton Athletic. This this these guys I almost put in the group above because they had such a fantastic first three games. But they were talking the town in August. They were way above expectations. They were blowing teams off the park in in tough spots. You know, they went and won 2 1 away in West Ham. But then they regressed to the mean. And regressing to the mean, or their own mean, is is what is likely to happen for a club like Charlton. And that's why I put them here in the mid table as opposed to up top and really challenging for a playoff berth. We saw that regression to the mean happen a little bit in September. And they wasn't just the losses that happened, but it was kind of how they lost as well, and by how much. They lost to Stoke 4 0, lost to Cardiff City 3 1 before the break. And it was really the goal scoring that dried up in September. They had three scoreless outputs against Stoke, QPR, and Portsmouth. They need to rely a little bit less on Tyrese Campbell, who w also just had a successful international break and should continue to play well for them. but they need to play better in front. Than behind they need to play better across the park. but when they play in front, they play better than when they play from behind. Because playing from behind opens up too much for their opponents. They turn into almost like Norwich City when they play from behind and and open up too much opportunity. And so this is a club that will probably end up not quite as good as August, not quite as bad as September. Nathan Jones needs to needs to rediscover whatever magic he had really to start the season. to really inspire this squad because they're exposed a couple of times in September and and they'll want to get back to to the way they were playing earlier on earlier on in the season. Next five games, home to Bristol City, away to Burnley, away to Watford, home to Norwich City and Borough away. Next club, Lincoln City. They'll be ecstatic to be in this group. if you think about how they came into this season where they're really playing with house money. And it's not been an easy start for them. Let's just think about the different ways in which they've overcome adversity so far this season. First of all, they're at a massive disadvantage from a budget perspective. As we know, they're the the lowest value club in the pre in the championship by far. It's their first season. in the second tier in sixty years, sixty odd years. They're yet to win at home still this season. They've got this dual manager setup, which is unique and could have gone really belly up. Like it could have been a disaster. They could be these guys could be fighting at each other publicly right now and clearly not getting along. And they lost their captain, Darakawa, for the season in August, with an ACL tear. And yet they sit in twelfth place, three wins Two draws, three losses. They're top of the belief index and flying. And they just couldn't be set up. They couldn't have asked to be set up in a better position. They do have a few things to still figure out. They've got to figure out how do we score more goals. They've got a few guys who look good. Freddie Draper's looked good. but they're just not, they don't have this sort of talismatic front man. They don't have the resources to really. go and get one of those and they're not creating a ton of chances. And that's not really their style, but and it that may also be completely fine. This is really a solidifying year for Lincoln City. They're trying desperately to stay up in this league and then capture the revenues and attention that come with that and continue to build on this on this kind of evolving and growing club. The best way to do that is to stop goals and George Wickens in goal has just been phenomenal. And they've looked really organized defensively and they've won a lot of close games and they've drawn a lot of close games that they might have otherwise drawn or lost. And so there's a resilience to this squad which is which is really exciting to watch. they've just never looked over through this entire season. We we we went over a couple of weeks ago how many points they need to stay up and they're right on track. And so they've got they'd probably they've got ten points. Ten points, is that right from the from the first eight? Three, threes, eleven points. Three and and twos eleven. So they'd probably want another ten points or so from this next slate of of games. But if you look at their next five, it's a challenging road. They've got Sheffield United, who they'd feel pretty good about playing. And then they've got West Ham, Millwall, Burnley, and Birmingham. So West Ham and Millwall, you know, they could potentially scrap a results in one or or two of those games. But it gets a little tougher for them. but they've shown that they're up for the fight. So they couldn't Im's fans just couldn't be happier. Bolton's the next team. I think they'd be quietly happy with where they're at as well. I think Schumacher's done a great job at at Integrating new players. They had a very busy transfer window. He's had some really great results. The last result against Norwich was the the game of the season for them. They're at a positive 10 on the belief index after that big win over Norwich. And the what's even more exciting and what's fueling a lot of that belief in the fan base is that they're in almost every game. So three of their four losses were by a single goal. They're conceding a lot at the back. and that if that continues, and Schumacher knows this, you know, that that will be a problem. they've conceded three goals in three separate games. But that Norwich game is kind of their identity. They they came from behind twice to equalize. They had a late winner from Ito off the bench. They have this energy to the squad, they have this resilience, this, you know, belief that they can beat anyone. And they also know that every game is going to be really difficult because of the level that they've stepped up to. Sam Dolby's been great. He's everything that Schumacher wants in in someone just like super high work rate, strong, efficient in front of goal. And, you know, these guys know who they want to be and how to get there. And that's why I've got them in this group that's really solidifying mid table, looking to solidify mid table come December. as opposed to escaping the death zone. I think they'll have another successful stint here over the next eight or so weeks. Their next five games are tough. Stoke City, Wolves, Southampton, Middlesbrough, Bristol City. So three out of those five club all five of those clubs are tough. Three out of the five are particularly tough. And but we know that they can they can take it to these teams. They do need to they do need to find ways to concede fewer goals. And that'll be Presumably what they focused on over the international break. Next club is Burnley. I could talk about Burnley, you know, till the cows come home. And but I'm gonna have a longer podcast about the state of the club off the pitch next week. so to kind of limit it to stuff that's on the pitch here, they're they're still suffering basically from the same problems they have off it, which is they had the summer, where they were just really slow to a point. Nikki Hayen into that role and you kind of reap what you sow a little bit there. Like he didn't get in, he was a chaotic search to get him. He didn't get in until July. He didn't have a lot of say over the transfer window. The transfer window itself is not done in my perspective, and I'll get into more detail on this next week in my deep dive on Burnley. But it's not done. The transfer window is not done to serve the team. It's done to keep this the team, the club solvent. Essentially, in terms of selling players, that whole strategy is not done to serve any strategy that Nikki Haynes come up with. And so the first eight games, no wins, four draws, four losses, four points, bottom of the table, you get what you you get what you've done. Like this is the result of your actions. And they've been unlucky, certainly, but like they they could not have anticipated things going much better. here are some numbers that sting. before the Derby game, which was the when they drew with Derby, they'd already conceded as many as they did in the whole of their big promotion season that they had a couple of years ago. They've got no defensive identity. They have not had a home league win since beating Leeds in October of twenty twenty five, so almost a year since their last home win. And then Bristol City at home was definitely the low point where they led and then just conceded late at the eighty second minute and then in stoppage time. And then the crowd just turned and it's gone ugly. And if you go and look at Burnley forums, you'll see some of the the rhetoric towards Alan Pace and the group. And you know, there's so much at stake here, which I don't want to kind of step on what I'm gonna talk about next week, but just purely on the pitch, Hayan knows like he's on he's like, I'm on borrowed time, which I feel is slightly unfair to him. He didn't come in with a massive pedigree. he didn't come in with any say over the squad. He's been handed this thing and has to try to make something happen of it with incredibly high expectations, just having been relegated and and wanting to get back up into the Premier League from a business perspective, that's really critical to to Burnley. And they just have not, they've just not gotten anywhere close to that. You know, and the talk of the immediate bounce back has turned into this fear of a second straight relegation. The squad still has a slight Premier League identity. They've got Jamie Vardy in, you know, can he make a difference? Can they get they just need to get something fresh going on? And they just you just never see a club that needs a win more. They desperately need to have a win here. And it starts this week against Watford. And that's one for both clubs almost that feels must win. They play Watford this week, then Charlton, Wolves, Lincoln, and Portsmouth. It feels on paper like a kind kind of run, but you know, what have we seen so far to make us believe in this squad and make us believe in Hayen? Not much. so it starts this weekend, the club has to kind of pull itself off the mattress. And we'll talk more about Burnley next week. Brings us to Derby County. Here we are again, Derby County and uncertainty. and I think the uncertainty here is less cataclysmic than the uncertainty that we have with Burnley. The uncertainty around Derby is basically a a direct one-to-one correlation. And here are the here are the different pieces as I see it. Over the summer, we had uncertainty around this takeover and the club sale. And That went to the eleventh hour and then it fell apart for various different reasons. But it was expected to complete. And they had a number of targets they wanted to go after who really fit with John Eustace's view of how he was going to build this squad, but they were also uncertain about who was going to be signing these checks. And so they didn't go and execute on that. And that miss has really sort of deflated the air in the balloon of the momentum that Derby had going into the season. And they're in a position here now where it doesn't feel as crazy as Burnley because Burnley has essentially set themselves up as they have to be a Premier League club. Derby's not set themselves up in that way at all. They got had a really good year last year and they would have loved to have built on that. But if you go and look at an article in the BBC that was published actually today, you see John Eustace talking about. The fact that this season, you know, they might have to temper some of their expectations, which is interesting because that's not the message from ownership right now. You know, the message from ownership is we can still do it this year. And CEO Steven Pierce said Derby wants to push on. Promotion ambitions haven't changed in the slightest since the takeover collapsed. Well, Eustace is the one out there with the squad each week. And so there's a little dissonance going on between ownership and management right now. But not to a point where it feels like it's it's completely broken. And his his approach is a more pragmatic approach. You know, if they can't chase this dream this year, that's fine. You build a competitive team, you stay up, and you know, you you move on, roll on to the next year. And the reason why we have calm over that, I have calm over that, is because, you know, John Eustace has been here before. He took over a threatened side, relegation threatened side in February 2025, turned it around really quickly. Derby fans trust him implicitly. And so him being honest with the fans here really helps rather than hurts the situation. And this squad has has had some bad injuries. Once those injuries start to resolve, they should play better. and to sort of state the obvious, by Christmas, when you think about what's at stake, like they they want to be out of that bottom tier. And with key players back and a clearer story around what this season's trying to be, they should be able to do that. That's why their belief index ranking stands at negative two. They're stable. there's belief still in the institution here, despite some of the the chops and changes over the last three or four months, that makes us think that they can they can still hang in. Next five games, they play Wrexham, QPR, Stoke, Sheffield United, and Millwall. three away from home. and against some. some tough teams there. So it doesn't get any easier on the pitch for Derby. They have a realistic sense of where they're trying to go. And they have a guy at the helm who has done it all before. Speaking of guys who've done it all before, Sheffield United, Chris Wilder's second or third act at Bramble Lane. It's not quite clicking at this stage. and the start they they've had some promise. And they have not quite fulfilled on that promise yet. Three draws, wins over Bolton and Blackburn. then they lost three one at home to Norwich, one nil at home to Wolves, and then two one to Stoke. And so they're two wins, three draws, three losses, nine points, eighteenth spot on the table. And the tide has turned a little bit on Wilder in fan forums and in the sta in the stands. fans are starting to really make themselves clear about where they feel they they where Sheffield United is and where they'd like to be. It almost feels like this is a club that, you know, is really trying to hang on. And that was why the whole Wilder appointment happened, was they were trying to desperately hang on. and find this thing that had come before, which was this great promise and great promise which Wilder had delivered on by by achieving promotion. But, you know, they it it may be a club that's in need of a complete teardown. And teardown is obviously something that's really difficult to do in a s structure which has relegation. And so you don't want to tear it down to the point that you get relegated. But do we need to have a clean broom through here? And we've talked in the past few episodes around just some of the ownership concerns these guys have and a lot of the lack of clarity of, you know, what any of those ownership concerns. implications might be. and so Sheffield United is is playing that out on the field. And what they would like by Christmas is to be back in touch with that top eight. That's where Blades fans feel like they deserve to be. And it's hard to see what that path looks like to get there. Anything less than being in touch with the top eight, I feel like this is an uncomfortable conversation for Chris Wilder. Like it's it's his the expectations that fan have fans have of him, fairly or unfairly, are so high. And that's just where he sits right now. Next five games are winnable though. they play Lincoln City, Portsmouth, Bristol City, Derby and Wrexham. And so they have an opportunity to change the change the narrative here and but a lot of work to be done. Okay, it brings us to our last group, and this is our group staying above the death zone. So this is clubs, one, two, three, four, five clubs for which success going into the new year would look like them staying out of the relegation zone. And obviously that's not going to happen for all five of these clubs. There's obviously going to be at least three, probably more clubs in that relegation zone leaving December. But these are the five that'll be trying desperately to stay out of it. And we start with Blackburn Rovers. And I toyed with putting Blackburn into the group above. You could even argue that Blackburn from an identity perspective is playing at such a higher level than a team like Sheffield United. I think you can you can mount an argument for the fact that they they do have a chance to really be pushing to solidify themselves in the middle of the table come December. They have been one of the biggest surprises for me of the first two months. And it started with that two two draw with Wolves on opening day. They showed that under Tony Mowbray, they're going to have a clear identity. They're going play pragmatic football. They're going to play to win and to draw. Can they sustain this? how much resilience do they have? And how far can resilience take you? Tony Mowbray is such a pragmatic manager, you know, and it it shows up in all these different ways that he manages. He has, he splits the team into artists versus soldiers, and he tells artists you're allowed to create as much as you can. soldiers, you cannot you have to you have to be regimented in the way you approach the game. Do exactly as you're told. you'll see him switch to five at the back when they're winning to just kind of really try and lock down and win. He wants to build this kind of fighting team. But how far can that take you and how far can this squad take Blackburn? And they've had some guys who looked awesome. Todd Cantwell I think has looked really energetic and and exciting in the first two months of the season. and they've had Harry Pickering has been super solid. and, you know, there's so there's there's many reasons why I think you could make an argument that these guys are going to be pushing rather than than fighting. ultimately it comes down to the ceiling for this club as opposed to the floor. And can Mowbray raise the floor enough that it unlocks some kind of ceiling? I'm not sure. But it's gonna be an exciting, exciting few games coming up here. They've got Cardiff this week, which they'll feel is very winnable. Bristol City, West Brom, Brexham, and Swansea. You know, they're gonna go into those five games thinking they can win two, at least two or three of those. And at the start of the season, you would say that would was would be highly unlikely. But there's something there. There's something there I feel like about this this Blackburn Rovers team that was not there last year. It doesn't put in to doesn't, you know, wash away any of the concerns around ownership and and the long term future of the club. but there's something there that that I think fans can hang their hat on going into the the winter. Cardiff City. Cardiff City knew this was going to be a hard season. And Brian Barry Murphy said that coming into this, coming into the season, before the season. and let's not forget, we're in the middle of this, we're still we haven't completed, we're still in the middle of this kind of tactical revolution from Brian Barry Murphy, where he's taken over Cardiff City. He's tried to evolve what was one of the oldest squads in the EFL into one of the younger squads that's playing in a completely different way, playing Highly technical, possession br based football. and there's gonna be bumps along the road of that. Now, did they expect those bumps to be seven winless games to start the season? Probably not. no one expects that or likes that. but they beat Charlton three one at home. summer signing Jack Moylan scored twice. And they've looked good at various times. Their opening game against Wrexham. they look like they should have won that game through the whole thing and almost did. And They've lacked they've kind of lacked a killer instinct up front and they've lacked real fortitude at the back. And that's probably things they're probably things that come naturally with a with a super young squad. Now the question for them is can they deal with the grind of the championship? And it'll be revealing to see how they come out in the next five games after the break. They have Blackburn, which is a huge game for both clubs, obviously. Watford, Middlesbrough, Birmingham City, and Wolves, not a terrible slate, but not easy by any stretch of the imagination. And then there's also this looming nature, si similar to Blackburn, but in a different way. There's this looming nature of the kind of toxic owner here to consider. And it would be really interesting to look at how I've ranked these clubs and how they rank against our institutional ranks or our ownership ranks for each of these clubs, because you can sort of see the off pitch bleeding into the on pitch. In many of these ways. and so so far with Vincent Tan, he's managed to avoid micromanaging Brian Barry Murphy and telling him what to do and meddling in the day-to-day that he used to do so much at this Cardiff City side. Can he keep doing that? Can he have time and patience? How much patience does someone have? Like how long does Brian Barry Murphy have to turn Cardiff City around? And how long will will Vincent Tan tolerate? any of these this lack of winning. And that's going to be the big question. Where does Brian Barry Murphy have to be in terms of wins and losses come end of December in order for Vincent Tan to really believe that this is a project that is still worth investing in? Portsmouth. John Massino loves a relegation fight. Does he? I don't know. But he seems to be good at him. he had one last season. He's probably going to have another one here. And yet at the same time, the sky's not completely falling on Portsmouth. They've got a belief index score of negative six. They're down seven points week over week. Still the highest belief of any club in this group in the bottom tier here. and the reason. for that is the belief in the institution. People believe, fans believe you know, Frat and Park kind of carries this club. The fans give them a cushion and a kind of r belief that you just don't get out of at least the other two fan bases that I've just spoken about. And if you go onto forums and you see that, you know, Portsmouth fans can be a little hand wringy at times about John Massino, but they're not overly concerned and they're certainly not en masse calling for his head. Like a lot of the clubs in this bottom half, they need to find a way to create. And they've they've had some some good some success from their summer signings. but they would have liked to have seen a little bit more. And I think this is just a club that I know I want to watch a lot more of Portsmouth over these next next couple of months, but they're a club that that feels like they need to start gelling a little bit more. They're going to have their backs to the wall a lot. They need to find ways to continue to turn losses into draws and draws into wins. It starts this week against Southampton. They play the South Coast Derby, and then they've got Sheffield United, Norwich City, Wolverhampton, and Millwall in a what's kind of a tough slate there. That brings us to our second bottom club, which is Watford. Watford, eight points, twentieth place on the table, two wins, two draws, four losses. One win, four losses from their last five, bottom of the belief index because of their ownership situation. Started brightly. They beat Southampton. Then they drew with Wrexham and West Ham, but it's all been downhill since there. And all the questions still remain about this club. Despite those first few good games, we're still sitting here. We didn't probably didn't expect to resolve these by October, but we're still sitting here wondering you know, Alessio Dinisi, he's the twenty fourth head coach of the Potzo era. The twelfth in five years. His own C V is not super like overwhelming, overwhelmingly impressive. Fans were skeptical that he'd be here by December, still here in December. Will he still be here in December? That is the question going into this this run of games. It's a really thin squad. it's got a long injury list, especially in defense. they they desperately D N E see desperately wanted to recruit more in defense before the season started. They've got they've conceding goals too easily and their XG is is near the bottom of the table with underlying concerns on on both ends of the pitch. If you look at Opta's take on them, they've their supercuta computer relegates them in 35% of simulations, which is second only to Preston. And so it's a it's a tough position for them to be in here. The short the short story on their on field strategy, on their on pitch strategy, is that they're getting into they're not getting into good enough positions often enough. And so their f their goals they have scored have come from finishing above expectation. And they're just not doing enough on the pitch that really has them stand out and have us believe that they can push forward in a way that's not going to result in Dionysis's firing at some stage this season. And if that results in his firing, if he's not the guy, Watford fans will just believe that another version of him will be put in place. And so you have this perpetual wheel of Managers coming into the squad, having different ideas and different ways to play, not being supported by ownership, not having the squad they need, not putting the results up on the pitch and then getting fired again. It's like the perfect flywheel. It's what you look for actually in in businesses is to have this s kind of like impeccable flywheel. They've got it at Watford. It's just going in the wrong way. The question is, you know, can they can they get some wins here that will stretch Dinisy's period in time out at Watford? Create some stability potentially. Their next five games are against Burnley, Cardiff, Charlton, Wolverhampton, and Norwich. The game against Burnley this Saturday is the two lowest belief clubs in the league, head to head. Whoever loses that in a real trouble. They both there's two you couldn't pick two teams who are more desperate for a win at this stage of the season, and they play each other. Last club is Preston. Preston, we talked a lot about in the last episode. You know, their story of their first two months is obviously all about Paul Hackingbottom and his firing. They gone after he was gone after six losses from seven games. And we talked about in prior weeks that disconnection between how Hackingbottom saw the side and how management and ownership saw the side. And we saw it play out in lots of different ways, whether it was you know, the way that Hekingbottom was using different players and how his s whether his strategy truly truly matched the players that he was putting on the pitch. And it felt like that gap between management and ownership, who said in their statement when they released him, they said, you know, we felt like we put together a good squad this season. and we felt like he wasn't getting the most out of that squad. And Hackingbottom felt probably that they weren't honoring the kind of team that he was trying to put together. That gap kept growing and growing. And so the Hiring of a new manager, Graham Alexander, who we'll get to in a second, the hiring of that new manager represents this opportunity to immediately close that gap and to try to resolve some of those issues. And if Alexander, you know, is in the right mindset, he will look to say, what can I do with this squad that's in front of me and how can I have them play to their strengths? You know, Graham Alexander is a club legend. He had three hundred and fifty-two appearances as a player for Preston. He was part of their title winning side when they won the third tier in two thousand. he comes from Bradford, who were the top of league one. He's won promotion with other clubs in the past. Hacking bottom, ironically, is now the favorite for the Bradford job. So that'd be pretty exciting if those two guys swapped offices. And so it's early. it's probably before early, actually, because they haven't haven't even played one game. But we should see or we could see a lift here from this appointment, potentially, and a lift in belief. They're negative 25 points on the belief index right now, and in crisis mode. And but that's to be expected when you move on from a manager like this. Their next five games are against Millwall, Birmingham City, Wrexham, West Brom, and Stoke. That is a rough run. makes you question in a way If you're cruising at the top of League One and you get approach to come and take on this struggling team, you know, we saw it with Eustace in Derby, where he went from Blackburn to Derby a couple of years ago. You know, why do you go and take over these squads that are at the bottom? And it's because you probably see an opportunity, you s because of lots of things, but you see an opportunity to to do something differently, which is gonna r lead to immediately positive results. You've got to a lack of belief and you know that just a few small things and a few small changes might have massive impact. but that's a rough run for Graham Alexander to walk into and start with. So he's been on the job a week and a half or two weeks or so. We'll see how he goes up against Millwall this week. So that's that's the group top to bottom. reach out and let me know what you disagree with and how you feel your club is going to go coming into this next phase of the season. Biggest games I'm looking forward to this weekend as we get back to original programming after this long break. West Ham takes on QPR. That the question there for me is QPR for real? This is a great test for them going to West Ham and playing. they kick us off, I think, tomorrow, tomorrow night. Swansea takes on Norwich. Did Norwich learn how to defend over the break? What are they going to do up front without Torre? Lots of questions coming there. Swansea, can they keep the the foot on the on the gas here going into the next stage, next phase of the season? Blackburn Rovers versus Cardiff, a classic clash of cultures. You know, the old Buck takes on the young one. Pragmatism versus the beautiful game. That's exciting. And then the South Coast Derby, Southampton versus Portsmouth. Does Portsmouth have a chance against a Southampton that's going to be so excited after? Eckett getting off after Spargate. So lots to watch this weekend. Exciting to have football back. Thank you so much for listening. And we will be back with more next week on Minnows Football.