Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 5 Leverage Lane | October 4, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS

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NFL Week 5 Leverage Lane | October 4, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems, go clear your lift.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's up Number one?
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totec and Tambo. Back for another
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: edition of Leverage Lane here on the ship at Nation
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: YouTube Station. Got my guy Alex blikel here with me
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: as always, gonna be breaking down all things week five
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: from a single entry three max twenty max perspective. You
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: can extrapolate it out, but we really want to get
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: to a single entry lineup in the end.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: The way the show works is quite simple.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: We're gonna do a quick recap of last week. It
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: was a really good week here on Leverage Lane. We're
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: gonna break down one of the questions we had from
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: the chat last week that somebody put into the couldn't
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: make to the chat, put into the comments, talk about that.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: I think it's a really interesting concept to start with.
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: We'll talk about ownership in ways others aren't. We're gonna
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: talk about the combinations, the game stacks, the common build.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: How do we leverage that.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: And then at the end of Leverage Lane, we're not
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: going down narrative Street. We're going down leverage Lane. When
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: we get to the end, we will have our leverage
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: lane with the light at the end of the lane myself, Alex,
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: and Alex got.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: To bring you in man.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: Last week you said it's the week to play Mahomes.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Mahomes comes out and crushes, and I'd said, it's pretty simple.
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: You go Stafford, Pooka Adams. You could run it back
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: with Mitchell, our guy over at ship a Nation, Jay Walkin.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: He had exactly those four for one hundred k. Love
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: to see that somebody get there with that, But I mean,
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: in general, could have been even better if a don
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: A Mitchell remembers to hang on to the football entering
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: the end zone.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: What's going on, my man? How you doing this week?
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: And doing very well?
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: That It was a really good show last week, and
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: I think you know, personally, I had a really bad
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: DFS week, but it was so close and the concept
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: was right. I had Kyraen Williams trying to leverage that
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: whole game, and then I played into Las Vegas and
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: Chicago a little bit and I just needed to flip
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: it right. I just needed gent leveraging that game and
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: then playing into the Indianapolis game. And we also saw
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: like the perfect kind of concept play out where if
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: you hit a mini stack in that game, in that
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: Indianapolis game, you didn't get much out of it. You
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: needed the full game stack or the full game stack
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: just totally trounced you. So really cool to see that
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: play out the way it did. Awesome call on your part,
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: and hopefully we can hit some leverage lane plays again
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: this week.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's interesting too.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: What you said there are so key, especially for everybody
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: watching this and focusing. You know, everybody wants more single
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: entry content. That's why we created this show. It's like
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: you only really get one shot of it when you're
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: playing Signatry and you can be really close and in
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: the right spot, just in the wrong way, and that
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: just happens a ton and you just have to know
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: that is part of the single entry game. But that's
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: that's on the right path, right You're on leverage lane
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: with us, You're trying your stuff, but you're if you
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: don't get there on this one, maybe it's the week
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: after or the week after that, whatever it looks like
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: where you can put yourself in that position.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: But as long as you're thinking through it critically. Alex
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: and I talk pre show.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, we're gonna get to the comment from last
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: week in a second about a different concept. But we
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: were talking pre show, and it's like the puzzle that
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: I always talking about, or the you know, the brain
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: the thought of like.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Thinking of it as a game.
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: It's like the people don't always understand the concept of
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: what you said, Like if you're not gonna be on
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: Geno and you're not gonna be on Myers and you're
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: not gonna be on Boers, JENTI just makes sense.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: He just falls in there.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: Like their total was like twenty five points, like team total,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: what happens then?
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: How does that happen?
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: And if you want that to be a part of
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: your build, then if once you do the first move,
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: you got to be thinking about what the other moves
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: look like. And I know we'll get to that later
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: hopefully we can back up last week's but that was
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: sort of what I was seeing with Puka, where it
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: was like, clearly you could play him as a one off,
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: but if he actually has forty and he by the way,
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: ended up having thirty nine, it's like that's where the
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: setup of Okay, I think that is gonna bring Stafford there,
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: And if Adams does anything, which he's been going deep
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: to him, I mean he didn't really do anything out
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: like fifteen or sixteen. If he has a twenty five
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: point game, then that has to lead back to Stafford
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: and then the condensed offenses. Right, we'll talk more on
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: that and sort of how the builds look as you're
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: building them out. I think it's really interesting this week
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: when we get there. But the comment last week basically
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: talked about can you play like leaving money on the table?
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Alex, I'll let you take this one.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: You know, talk about leaving money on the table if
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: you're going and then go a bunch of chalky plays,
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: because like, if you're you know, who cares about the
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: chalk if you're already getting different by leaving money was
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: kind of the concept. I think you can break it
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: down further if you want, but that's kind of the concept.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: The person who was watching.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: Had asked, Yeah, that's exactly what was asked, And my
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: answer kind of gets to the reason why we're bringing
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: this up is that my answer gets to a concept
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: that I think is really important for the Slate this week,
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: which is there's nothing inherently valuable about being different. Being
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: different is a necessary step to something that actually is valuable,
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: which is having the potential to separate from the field
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: and actually, you know, pass people and get up on
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: the leaderboard. And so in my discord like this is
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: something that I talk about a lot, kind of shifting
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: away from the question of do I have enough differentiation
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: in my lineup and my unique enough to do I
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: have separators in my lineup? And now we get back
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: to this question of Okay, if I have a bunch
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: of chalk, but I'm leaving money on the table which
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: makes me unique, is that a good enough strategy. The
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: answer to me is no, because you still don't have
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: any separators in your lineup. Your only paths of success
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: is number one like having every single guy in your
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: lineup do well, and having every single guy in your
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: lineup not just do well for their price, but for
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: somebody a thousand dollars more expensive because you're leaving so
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: much money on the table. So I think this concept
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: of you know, finding separators in your lineup is really
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: important for this upcoming slate, and especially as we talk
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: about where to find those separators in at which position,
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: because we have so much running back chalk, and quite frankly,
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: like a lot of the running back chalk is actually
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: good chalk.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I think we're gonna talk about that in a
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: second anyway, so we'll get into it. But I love
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: that call like finding the separators, And I will say
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: just an add on, I think where people get that
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: from and where it can work at least is like
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: maybe in Showdown, because in Showdown, when you have a
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: single game that you're playing off of, which is we're
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: talking about here, But just to give the concept quickly,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: is in Showdown, it's that that could just be it
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: like you have you already have such a smaller pool
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: to work with. There already is certain plays that makes sense.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: And I'll give you the example just from the other night.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: It was on FanDuel. But when you price a quarterback
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: like Mac Jones and a thousand bucks and you can
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: be in the APT or in the MVP there for
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: teen hundred bucks, you do have to start thinking about
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: that stuff. It's like, okay, clearly this is a starting
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: quarterback for a miss price. How different with that? One
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: of the ways is to leave money on the table.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: And then even if you do have common players, you
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: may not need that separator. But honestly, if you really
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: want to ship it for the top empty prize, you
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: probably still need that separator. So it's a great concept
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: that you brought up, But I think it is important
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: when we get into this.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Week, do you want to relate it to this week?
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Usually we do just like like a quick off the
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: top as we get into the ownership fast is like
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: the running back ownership is something I think quarterback kind
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: of gets summed up quickly.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: You know, if we want to do that first is
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: you know, it's justin squared. It's kind of what I'm saying.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Definitely justin fields looks super popular.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: In single entry, and then I think you'll see like
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: Herbert Jones some of those guys, But what do you
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: got there?
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: And then let's talk about the running back stuff for sure.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah at quarterback, I mean personally, I think it's fields
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: and then everybody else. So we've got Fields at twenty
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: six point four percent in single entries, Daniel Jones, Herbert Kyler,
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: Murray all around ten percent, and then a pretty big
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: drop off before you get to everybody else. So there's
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: so much field's ownership. And I think part of that
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: is it's not that people love the Jets offense more
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: than they love the Chargers offense.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: It's that if you're torn between Fields or Herbert and
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: you start thinking, Okay, who do I pair these guys with?
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: If you go to Herbert, let's say you like the
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: Chargers more, you still have to get the rest right right.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: You still have to figure out if it's going to
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: be Lad this week, or if it's going to be
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: QJ again, or if Keenan's going to be the guy again.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: And that's a pretty intimidating task to guess that correctly.
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: Whereas if you go Feield, do you know the answer,
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: it's just Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Garret Wilson. That's so easy,
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: and that it's such like an overlooked element of single
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: entry ownership in particular, because it's one thing if you're
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: plugging it into an optimizer, if you're if you're building,
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: you know, an MME set of one hundred and fifty lineups,
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: and you go with justin Herbert, it's it's easy to
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: get the combination right because you're gonna have all of
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: the combinations with Herbert. With single entry, you only have
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: the one shot, and so the ease the predictability of
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: who's going to produce with him is such a massive
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: part of where quarterback ownership actually goes, and in this
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: case that makes Justin Fields by far the most popular guy.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think it's what you said is just
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: that everybody has to think about that too, right. That's
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: a key component, especially in single entry if you if
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: you're thinking something, others are thinking it and you you
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: nailed it there.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: It's exactly that what you got.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: Everyone has a stand and they'll they'll have a take
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: on Maconky versus Alan versus QJ, and they think they
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: got to figure it out, but that you've only you
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: You can only build it that way.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: And you have to watch it play out.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: There's three options at wide receiver, all priced like one
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: hundred to three hundred bucks apart or whatever between them,
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: and that's a lot more to figure out than just
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: Fields Wilson call it a day, and then a lot
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: of people might run it back or do something like that.
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: So I think that's a key component to remember, and
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: that's where the steam comes from. So if you're trying
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: to figure it out and trying to put the pieces together,
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: which we always talk about is how.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Is this all connected? Well, that's part of it. You
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: just nailed it.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: Right, It's no surprise when you go look at the
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: ownership that Wilson has steamed up because that's going with
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: the field stuff and everything else that goes with it.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: So just to do a quick breeze through, we'll maybe
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: save running backs. You're just gonna run through it quickly.
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: But quarterback you talked about it. It's like fields and
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: everybody else. It could literally be Fields pushing thirty and
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: then it could be everybody else like twelve or less,
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: so they'll be spread out. There's a few guys there
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: that we mentioned, but like, yeah, where it actually ends up,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: you can get different that way.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: Tight end. It looks to me to.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Be Tyler Warren McBride and then maybe moves around.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Is that what you got?
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And I once again, I do have some stuff
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: that's different from the industry. So I've got Warren up
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: at twenty five percent, Bride around twenty percent, and then
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: I think Ferguson's going to be more popular than people expect.
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: I've got him up at sixteen percent. He's an obvious
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: bringback to all field stuff. So like fields, just the
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: popularity of fields is bringing up Pickens being bringing up
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: Ferguson and then I also have a little portus steaming
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: two about twelve percent. He's basically like between five and
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: eight around the industry. So there, you know, this is
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: this is definitely a week where a lot of my
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: ownership projections are pretty aggressive, but in weeks in the
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: past like this is when we are the most accurate
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: and so very very excited for this slate. In that regard,
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: I think we have a big ownership advantage this week.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want I ask this too.
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: So every month with the Mastermind project, we have a
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: monthly roundtable, a Q and A right every If you
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: want to check it out, you can go to ship
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: a nation dot com slash Mastermind.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: But we do a monthly Q and A.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: I see some people in there, you know, my girl
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: Nika's on it with us, A bunch of people in
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: the chat that I see. But just to note, somebody
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: brought this up the other night, and this is what
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: I was talking about a pre show where like some
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: of this to us becomes like, okay, that means this,
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: if this then that like we just start running with
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: it because it's second nature. And that's why we wanted
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: to do this show to help other people sort of
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: see understand these concepts. But the question the other night was,
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: and we're going to this anyway, So it's a good
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: segue because you're about to get these running backs and
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: whatnot is what we always talk about is how is
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: it connected? And how do you figure that out? So
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: you talked about being aggressive with the ownership projections that
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: can then start to get you to where we're going
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: down leverage lane with the common build.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: So when I ask you the question they.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: Asked, I want to get your answer on this is
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: how do you take a slate from ground zero like
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: where we're at right now and figure out how it's
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: all connected. What's your way to put all the pieces
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: together on paper to get to what you think besides
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: just click and optimize and seeing what the optimal build
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: right now is, it's what are the pieces in those combinations?
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: You see? So I'll kick it to you on that.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's not the easiest thing to do because,
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: like a lot of time, we oversimplify things when we
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: say the field is doing this right, Because the truth
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: is every individual rule DFS player in the field approaches
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: things differently. But the vast majority of people do two things. First,
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: Number one, they kind of pick the guys that they
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: have conviction on they think are high probability plays, and
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: they pick their stack. And so if you can understand
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: who the sort of building blocks that people are going
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: to like are and who the stacks that people are
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: going to like are, everything else kind of flows from there.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: And so in this case, like talking about okay, a
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: lot of people are going to land on Justin Fields
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: and Garrett Wilson as their stack. How does that then
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: affect the rest of the stack. So now, because that's
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: the most popular stack, people want bringbacks, so Ferguson pickens
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: they're going to go up. Then you get into, you know,
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: the building blocks, and this week we've got so much
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: running back value because of guys who are out because
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: of just flat out good spots that you know, those
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: are the building blocks. And so now you have an
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: instance of Okay, people have tons of flexibility in the
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: running backs they're playing. You can pay up twice for
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: you know, at Jonathan Taylor and a Devon ah Chan,
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: you can pay down twice for a Shot White and
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: Rico Dalda, like, there's so much a flexibility that this
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: week we don't have the story that we had in
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: like Week one, where everyone was paying up and running back,
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: which meant that five K and four K range of
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: receivers was going to get hammered that story. So we
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: don't have that this week. But but point being like that,
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: that to me is how you tell this story. It's
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: where are people going for the stack? Where are people
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: using their building blocks, and then understanding how everything has
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: to flow from there.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's the similar, very similar for me.
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: I think just answer for everybody watching this one. I
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: think for you know, the field thing starts the story, right,
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: you know, typically I say this in classic I start
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: a quarterback in Showdown, I started the captain, like, where's
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: the popularity?
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: What does that build out look like? And if you
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: just take the basics.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Like you know, you can go to ship a nation,
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: you go to your your FTN, you're any site with
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: projections ownership, you can check it out and sort it
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: by that you'll start to see some correlations. That's how
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: we get to some of these pockets where we're like, oh,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: that's going to be a common secondary stack. But you'll
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: clearly see Wilson and Pickens atop the wide receiver ownership,
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: but not at the very top. I even think like
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: JSN could be up there things like that. But I'm
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: saying you start to see pieces that go together and
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: then you say, oh, and fields is popular with them.
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: So now that's the starting point. Will that leaves x
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: amount of money on the table? Ah, that makes sense
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: for this. So let's get to that running back stuff
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: because that's sort of where we started and we wanted
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: to segue into. But one of the most interesting things
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: for me this week is that even though there is
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: backup running backs and things like that coming in, because
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: the stacks aren't super expensive this week, even if you
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: want to go to like a monro it's GoF at
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: sixty five hundred. If you want to go to a
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: Jamar Chase, it might not even be with his own quarterback.
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: It might be on the other side with GoF again.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: So but if you want to go with his own quarterback,
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: he's forty nine hundred for Browning. So it's like it's
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: easy to fit the expensive running backs. So what do
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: you see at running back right now? And then anything
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: else you want to add at that position because we
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: kind of started there with the comment from last week.
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So the first thing I'll say is there's a
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: long list of chalk this week, and unlike some weeks
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: that we get the I think the chalk is all
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: really strong, and it's almost like their ownerships are being
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: held in check because of how many good options there
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: are and not because people really like the pivots. So
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: we've got brace Hall over forty percent in single entries,
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: We've got devon a Chan at thirty seven percent, Jonathan
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: Taylor at thirty one percent, Jamior Gibbs at twenty three percent,
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: then Dowdell and Rashad White both hovering around twenty Omari
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: and Hampton just under twenty percent. And so we kind
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: of started by talking about this concept of finding separators
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: in your lineup and the kind of application of that
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: for this late is. Let's say you have a five
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: percent running back that you really like, Derek Henry or
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: somebody like that. Right, Let's say he goes for one
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: hundred yards two touchdowns, gets you somewhere between twenty five
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: and thirty draftings points. That's a great score, but how
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: likely is it to help you separate when we have
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: all these other running backs who are very clearly in
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: great spots and you know their floor is probably between
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: fifteen and twenty points, and twenty five is somewhat close
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: to a median outcome, Like that would still be above
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: average as an outcome, but chances are at least one
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: or two of those really chalky runnimacks are getting to
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: twenty five. Chances are one has you know, one is
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: going to get to thirty. And so if you get
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: a twenty five to thirty point performance from a five
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: percent running back, it's probably not helping you separate from
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: the field because it's just matching what one of the
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: chalk guys is doing. So for me, like that makes
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: a really nice starting point for my approach this week
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: in single luntries, which is I want to find my
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: separators from either the wide receiver tight end position and
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: just kind of pick my favorite running back chalk.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and do you think the other thing too.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: I think this goes with the concept of what we
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: talked about, like, you know, finding the common build and
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: you know, then leveraging it. And I don't know if
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: this is the week to do it again. We'll see
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: how things shake out when we get to the end.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: Maybe we have a clearer, better idea. That's the point
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: of going to leverage land and going through the segments
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: is I think, you know, people just look at this
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: running back set up this week and say it's got
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: to be a three running back week, like you just
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: named it. There's seven of them there, and does it.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Need to be it? Will it be one?
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: Versus will people be building with one? And that's where
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: we again people, we have more information going in. It
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: seems very clear people are going to be building with
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: three running backs. That's a concept you can take from
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: later if you can find a.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: Way to one up that.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: And I guess one of the biggest things would be
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: like when you see a I don't know, like Breese Hall,
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: for example, if you're not on a lineup that's involving
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: that game and you're not on Breese Hall, you could
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: go to Garrett Wilson or something and separate it that
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: way where you're like, you have a four wide receiver
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: lineup and you're not using Breess Hall. Even though Wilson's
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: a little bit popular, I'm just saying that's an example
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: where most Wilson lineups would be with fields.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: It's a way to get different that way.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: There's tons of other examples, but I think that's where
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: people don't realize that. It's like you can get different
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: in different ways too. Write your build construction.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Could be different. But what do you feel? How do
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: you feel about that being all those running backs you
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: just named.
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah, to back up your point, we have sixty five
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: percent projected running back ownership in the flex this week,
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: which would be the most of this season. And actually
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: way back in Week one, we had sixty two percent
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: wide receiver in the flex ownership. So really kind of
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: backing at what you said there, And I also think
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: to this point of separation, if you are using a
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: contrarian guy in the flex, it's better off being a
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: receiver than a running back. Because when you look at
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: the leaders and projections this week, the four highest guys
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: for US are all running backs e Chan Jonathan Taylor, Saque,
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: and e Jamier Gibbs. But then when you go to
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: the highest ceilings, you actually see Jamar Chase at the top,
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: you see Ego Collins up there. So wide receivers have
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: a much better chance of competing at the ceiling department
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: than in the median expectation department with these running backs.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: So when you're trying to get separation, when you're trying
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: to play a unique guy at contrarian. You're much more
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: likely to actually have that separating score come from a
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: wide receiver in the flex than a contrarian running back
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: in the flex.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and honestly, even if you don't get there in
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: the flex to everything you said is awesome and dead on.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying, but even if you didn't get there
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: in the flex, think about those options and those ways
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: that they can be even your separators in your wide
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: receiver spots. Right, use your money differently or you're build differently,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: so you can get to some of those separators real.
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: Quick, actually real quick on that tamble. Like when I
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: say like in the flex, it it's kind of broad
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: because it doesn't matter if he's actually the guy in
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: the flex spot. Just understand, if you're using four receivers,
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: you're kind of using all four of them in the
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: flex spot. And if you're using three running backs, you're
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: kind of using all three of them in the flex spot.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: Because if you didn't use that guy, Like let's say
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: you have four receivers, if you took one of them
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: out and put in a running back, you could use
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: any of those running backs in the flex And similarly,
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: if you have four receivers, any of them could be
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: theoretically being the flex. You're you should be putting the
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: latest guy in the flex. But you know, if you
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: were to rework your lineup, theoretically you could take any
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: of them out and put any of those other guys
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: in the flex. So when I say that, I am
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: very much thinking of it that way. So like, if
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: your separator is in the wide receiver spot, but you
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: have another wide receiver in the flex, understand that you're
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: still kind of using that separating wide receiver in the flex.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was laughing because funny enough, So the streak
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: got broken last week. Shout out to your call again
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: on the Mahomes finally getting the job done in the
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: twenty dollars million maker, mind you, one hundred dollars less.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: They just play Stafford and with Pooka and the run
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: back and win by even more. But the point is
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: they also had Bucky Irving in the Flex, who was
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: in the Morning Game. And it's like, all right, I'm
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: not giving full credit to this thing. And it actually
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: wasn't a terrible lineup. We reviewed it on Monday on
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: the Takedown Breakdown. But I wanted to say, what's up
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: to everybody?
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: Real quick? Jordan's in here beg Anthony Tyler shout out
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: to Adam, this is awesome.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: Actually, Adam one ticket number six see Golden Ship at
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: number sixteen will be building the share ship lineup in
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: the five point fifty five million maker this week for
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: the Ship at Games over at Ship in Nation, So
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: a chance to increase the prize pool by five hundred
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Fifty percent would go to the top, so
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: that could be amazing. And a lot of other good
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: people I can't.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: Name them all.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: Our man Hoop came through said let's have a big weekend,
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: So appreciate him and everybody else that's joining us here.
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: But we're we're definitely excited to have this show, role
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: in it, and we're excited that people are enjoying it.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: So we're going to keep going with this.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Let's move to what everybody loves.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: I think this is the spot Alex to move on
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: and go to the next segment of Like we've kind
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: of identified a.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Lot of these factors.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: We'll be able to talk more to the names and
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: these spots once we get to this. But what are
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: you seeing with some of the combinations this week, and
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: then also like game stacks and things like that. With
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: what we know now on the chalk, let's let's talk
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: through that stuff.
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think the first one, in the obvious
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: one is always going to be where is all the
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: quarterback ownership? And so the first kind of combinations that
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: we want to avoid are mini stacks within this Jets game.
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: For example, I don't think you want like a Pickens
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: and Garrett Wilson, to me, would be awful because if
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: those guys go off and you don't have justin Fields
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: or Dak Prescott, you're kind of an idiot, right, Like,
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: there's no path to those wide receivers hitting when a
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: crazy rushing upside quarterback is helping that receiver hit. So
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: and obviously, like if you're also hoping for that game
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: script to go off, then you know that's when Dak
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: has his four hundred yard for touchdown type games. So yeah,
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: that's very clearly a minisat to point. And by the way,
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: like that also to me means you don't want Breese
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: Hall with George Pickens because the same idea, right, you
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: don't want that game going off at least that one
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: like there's a path to the game doesn't go off,
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: but all of the production on the Jet side is
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: Breese Hall on all the production on the Cowboy side
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: is George Pickens. But if that's the case, you're not
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: getting any added correlation out of it. So now you're
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: just playing into a higher commentatorial ownership for no reason.
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: So you'd have to have a ton of conviction on
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: Breeshall and a ton of conviction a Joy Pickens, and
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: also have a ton of conviction on the fact that
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: neither Fields or Prescott gets there, which doesn't seem like
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: a great thing to have conviction on across the board.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: So I definitely want to avoid mini sacks in that game.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: And then I also think, like an under the radar
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: one is I don't think you want mini sacks from
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: the Carolina Miami game. This is this is a game
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: where I think there is going to be a lot
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: of interest. So that is I don't want dawbd all
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: with Jalen Wattall, or I don't want a chan with
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: Ted McMillan. McMillan is somebody that I love. This week,
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: I'm definitely afraid that he steems. But to this point,
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: I'm not seeing any signs of it, So I still
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: haven't projected at twelve and a half percent, I'd probably
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: still play him up to like twenty percent. I think
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: this is just a phenomenal spot for him. So that's
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: another one that I'm going to avoid. Like if I'm
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: playing McMillan, I'm almost certainly not playing HM.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, can you go a little.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: So I want to say this because the first one,
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: like you said, I love that you backed it up
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: with unless you have a ton of conviction on this,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: but I agree like it makes it challenging.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: It's if Ken Breeshall get there on his own.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Yes, it doesn't mean you need to Pickens, but it
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: kind of fills it out and pushes it that way.
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: So I think that one was very well explained, not
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: saying the second one wasn't. But I think people would
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: have more questions on like if, Okay, for an example,
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: Dowdell is just a cheap value. He can obviously get
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: there just based on price. Wattle could be a like
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: could you play Wattle as a one off? And then
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: people say, well, if you could do that, then why
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: couldn't you just play the two of them together? Because
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: Wattle is also kind of leverage off of a Chan
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: who's very popular at the position. So what is your
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: secondary take on like a doubtle wattle mini stack, Because
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's the most popular this week by
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: any means I'm saying, but I think people would wonder
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: why that would be something you might not be as
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: excited about.
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: I'm going to use McMillan and a Chan because I
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: just did the math on it because I thought that's
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: the one you were gonna ask me about. So we
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: have McMillan at around thirteen percent and a Chan around
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: thirty seven percent. If those were totally independent choices of
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: whether you're using a Chan and McMillan your lineup, we
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: would expect them to be in the same lineup about
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: five percent of the time. But the way people are
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: now treating mini stacks is this thing that they need
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: to have in their lineup, and they're often just clicking
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: guys in the same game, and they're not thinking through
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: like what the actual game script and how each player's
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: success truly affects the other. They're just saying, same game.
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: I'm getting the correlation. It's a nice mini stack. I'm
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: going to do that. We have such inflated like mini
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: stack ownerships that instead of being in five percent of lineups,
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: they might be in ten percent of opposing lineups.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: And so.
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: Another way to think about it is like, let's say
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: you have a Chan and you feel great about a Chan.
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: I don't think there's a whole lot of correlation between
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: himself and McMillan. Maybe McMillan has a big, big play
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: this game that speeds up the game, but more often
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: than not with McMillan, like what we've seen this year
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: is his value is coming from the fact that he's
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: being peppered with targets, and so he might have a
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: ten reception one hundred and ten yard game something like
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: that doesn't necessarily help a chan. Same thing with a Chan,
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: he's as valuable as he is because now he's actually
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: getting some rushing success, but he's also getting a bunch
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: of dump off receptions, so neither of them are really
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: speeding up the game, which means you're just playing into
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: higher ownership. So it says if you start with a
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: thirty seven percent eight Chan and now you're going to
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: a one off in another game, but instead of being
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: thirteen percent on like McMillian, that guy is twenty six
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: percent on because you're playing into someone who's the combination
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: is twice as own as you would expect for McMillan's ownership.
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: And so when you right, so if you're using like
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: a McMillan at thirteen percent saying oh and he's he's
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: helping me differentiate, he's potentially helping me separate. No, he's not,
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: because you're playing into a lot more ownership than you
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: think you're playing into it. That combination.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a great concept and I think
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: it'll actually run year round because I think when we
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: get to the golf season, you know, this stuff comes
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: up a ton as well, with like a value play
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: mixed with a Scotti Scheffler or something, and that people
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: just don't understand that, like when it makes it all work,
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: and it's like it makes you feel better about it
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: all working, and it is like I get trying to
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: make it easy, especially in single entry. You want to
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: try and say like okay, XYZ, now it's good. And
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: we talk about that a ton, like a sports betting parlay, right,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: like you know you've got three favorites and your outlier.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: I used them Sheets's example a couple of weeks ago
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: when he won one hundred k in the Million Maker.
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: He came second, and it was like he had three
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: really good bets and his underdog if you will on
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: the parlay was Gino, Tucker, Myers and Bowers and it's like, look,
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: I'm not trying to figure out the Washington side.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: I'm just rolling with.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: That full on passing stack. And everyone's like, that's that's crazy,
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: that's horrible, that's this. It was factored in though, like
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: he had three really good bets that all made sense
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: together or were great for the slate, and then the
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: one outlier is like, yeah, that's the one.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: That would win me a million dollars if I get
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: it right.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: So I know what I'm doing when I'm betting this
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: parlay if you will in a DFS lineup. But he's
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: saying that's without saying it verbally. That's what the lineup
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: is saying. So that's how you have to think about it,
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: you know, Ross says, good point.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: I got to answer this one quick.
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: Someone asked, hey, yeah, we do have the promo five
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: days for nineteen dollars. That's as it says at the bottom.
• 27:59
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  Speaker 3: to ship at nation dot com click Join the Nation
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: and you'll be able to do that.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: But I think the biggest one this week, and.
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: You identified it, and it's not to say it can't
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: get there, but it's just it's thinking about it deeper.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: Is what you said is with the Breece Hall Pickens,
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: like that just has to be it. I know, it's
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: just easy to plug in. It already makes a ton
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: of sense. I talked about this concept yesterday on the
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: show with Mayo and with Scuorell Patrol, and it's like,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: oftentimes we're looking at a starting running back going out
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: so that we can then we're like, okay, sweet, now
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: we have a backup, like the Daudell situation right where
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: it's like, okay, Hubard's officially been ruled out. We've got
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: dawd All, he's forty three hundred. You know, somebody mentioned
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: here you'll be Trice, real name, no gimmicks, says didn't
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: doubt'll get twenty fantasy points a couple times maybe, But
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: I'm saying like that that's immediately what people are going
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: to be thinking and moving to it, and he's fine,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: he's forty three hundred bucks on this slate. I'm not
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: saying don't go there. I'm just saying it's that's what
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: people are thinking about with the Breee Hall situation. It's opposite.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: It's like the guy that would usually be worrying us,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: like Braylen Allen, We're like, man, this guy's in there again.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: This guy's in there again, Like come on, and he's
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: obviously very good and that's why they put him in
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: there and little you know, change of pace, But now
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: you don't have that. So it's almost like you're elevating
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: a guy and he's already getting six targets a week
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: for the last two weeks and again small sample early
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: in the season, but we know he can get there
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: for that. So I think that's where people struggle of, like, Okay,
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: I do have all the conviction on him, why can't
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: I just play Pickens?
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: But you already hit on it. So I don't know
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: if you have any.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: Others that you would go to, like Tyler Warren very
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: popular at the tight end position, Trey McBride right there
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: with him, But I don't really see any correlation that's
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: happening a ton. I think it's more where people don't
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: realize that's the combination of not a secondary stack, but
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: of if this then that it's like that's in the
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: fields lineups where you're seeing Warren a bunch because you're
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: seeing Fields Wilson the easy starting point with Pickens, and
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: then people just plug in Warren because that's where the
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: money goes, and now they can fill it out with
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: those three running backs.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: That's the common builds that we talked about earlier.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: So I don't think people are taking it to that
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: next level fully and understanding that it's not just the
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: secondary stack combo as much as what we talk about
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: is with these game stacks as well, or where it
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: leads to in the common bild.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Do you have anything else on that that you want
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: to add?
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: I think one of the lessons we can learn from
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: last week, and this is already something we were obviously
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: talked about since we know we used it as a
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: leverage lane. But what we're not saying is if you
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: have a ton of conviction on Pickens and Garrett Wilson
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: that you shouldn't play them together. We're saying is if
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: you have that conviction just say, Okay, I love these guys,
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: so I'm going to build out my stack around these
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: guys and yeah, just like a bit of a teaser here,
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: like my leverage lane today is going to be an
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: example of this exact sort of thing. It's not gonna
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: be from this game. But the idea is, if you
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: have all the conviction in the world on Garrett Wilson
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: and George Pickens to do well, just use that as
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: the stack. Say okay, I'm using justin fields now, and
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: I'm also gonna bring Javonte back, or I'm gonna throw
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: breecee Holland there as well, and hope that the Jets
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: score thirty. I'm gonna go dack with Pickens and Ferguson,
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna bring it back with Breece holl instead. Maybe
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: you just have conviction on Pickens there. So it to
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: me like that's the lesson here is if you like
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: the game environment that much to love a player on
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: each side, just been on that being the game environment
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: that goes off and surround yourself with all of the
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: pieces that those guys would help bring to a ceiling
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: performance with them, Yeah, and people.
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: That's again I know this sometimes comes across like for
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: us like it was second nature or something, And I
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: want we were trying to help people get better at
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: the game.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: We're trying to.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: Teach them how we think about it doesn't mean it's
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: right as much as like we've we've got experience with it.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: We're trying to help put these pieces together. And I
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: continuously use this one of like the the Penthouse and
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: different levels to it.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: It's like you said that you nailed it.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: It's not that we're saying they can't get there, it's
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: think about a different way that they can get there.
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: And I use last week's with the staf Afford stuff.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: It was like nobody staffer was three percent, DeVante came in.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: I think it like five point seven percent. Like those
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: guys weren't getting mixed in. But everybody wanted Puoka, everybody
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: wanted Warren. It was like, if that really happened, that
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: would set it up for this and we had we
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: had different ways that you could build it out. So
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: I think that's key the genty thing we talked about earlier.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: It really resonates with me this week for a couple
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: different spots which we'll get to, but like for this game,
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: even the Javonte stuff. Like what people are forgetting is
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: if one goes down, if it still happens in that game,
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: though other stuff goes up. Everybody watching this right now
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: has been there on a showdown slate when the backup
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: tight end gets the score and we're all in the
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: starting one. It's like, if one can hurt the other,
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: you really punish them because their lineup.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: Now whoever has this goes down and you not only
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: go up, but you hurt their piece. Like now they
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: have to really catch up. They can get another if
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: your guy catches an eighty.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: Yard bomb for a touchdown. Let's just use a backup
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: tight end and a showdown slate as an example. Man,
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: they're starting tight end that's filled in that spot now
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: has to come all the way back that or some
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: other value play has to come all the way back
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: from that.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: So they did.
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: You didn't just push them down. You push them down,
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: stomped on their neck and took it to that out
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: like it's it's a huge gap. And so that's what
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: I don't think people think enough about.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: When you're moving.
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: Okay, well I'm not gonna play this game. Then I
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: only got my single entry, though you still should tell
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: the rest of the story. If you're not playing Haul
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: and Pickens, what do you think happens? If you think
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: that the game's a dud, or you think that it
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: gets spread out too much and whatever, whatever.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: Then I understand it.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: But if you feel a certain type of way about
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: the stacks because there is significant injuries causing some of
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: this ownership, it's like you said, it's not just who
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: is the chalk, it's wire they the chalk, And then
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: what does that mean? And then how can you leverage that?
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: Literally what the show's all about. That's the point where
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: if you're not seeing it, you can move away.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: And I think that was the thing last week.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: Look, CMC only got twenty four points, but it was
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: twenty five points whenever it ended up being. It was
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: still a standard CMC type game. You know, he got
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: a million opportunities, could have done even more. But I
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: think there was people saying, look, I want James Cook,
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: I want Hampton, I want Scatt, I want this. You
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: can't play them all. If I'm gonna move off something,
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: let me move off the San Francisco spot and hope
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: that CMC at a eighty five hundred dollars price tag.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Which is fair but still up there.
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: Let's just hope that's not needed and he gets his
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: twenty to twenty five points and that's what ends up happening,
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: and he showed up in some lineups and not in
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: others because just total roster construction. But I think that's
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: the key component. People aren't doing that though. They're typically
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: building what they like to start and then being like, oh,
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: what can I just fill it in with?
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Oh, I'll just put this and this. It makes sense
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: and like you say.
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: A lot of that stuffs already baked in, So yeah,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: it's really tricky. And then we have a ten game
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: slate like they mentioned.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: So let's see here.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: A couple questions I want to see just pull up
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: in the chat, you know, involve that sum. But Kevin says,
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: if you are avoiding Hall Pickens Mini Stack, would you
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: also avoid playing them as one offs?
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: And I'll kick into you. I've got some thoughts here,
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: but I'll let you run with this one first.
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: No, you can. You can definitely still play them as
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: one offs. Pickens is a little bit harder to play
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: as a one off just because of the style in
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: which that he succeeds, Like when he succeeds, he's probably
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: bringing Dak with him, or he's picking up the pace
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: of the game, whereas Brides can get there because he's
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: running well and he has a bunch of short receptions
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: that doesn't do anything for the game environment. So but
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: but the point here is like when you use a
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: mini stack, you're trying to thread such a like a
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: tiny needle there where both of your guys have ceiling performances,
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: but they don't help the game enough to the point
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: where you're better off with which with whichever quarterback you
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: chose instead of one of the quarterbacks from that game.
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: It's just a much much harder thing to get right.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: And so I think, like an easier way to think
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: through this is just about making things easier on yourself.
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: What does being right entail. It's a lot easier to
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: be right about a Jets and Calboy's game stack than
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: it is to be right about Garrett Wilson ceiling game
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: and a George Pickens ceiling game. But somehow Fields doesn't
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: get there, and somehow Prescott doesn't get there. Right, that's
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: a much harder thing to be right about. And so
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: using them as one ups is totally fine because you're
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: not trying to thread that crazy needle where it's It's
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: obviously very easy for hal to hit without fields and
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: Dak hitting. It's a little bit harder with Pickens, but
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: you can still get there with you know, maybe Pickens
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: has a great game, but the Jets totally fail and
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: therefore Prescott doesn't have to throw the ball in the
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: second half, and so he doesn't get there either. But
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: Pickens already has this one hundred yards and a touchdown.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: So I didn't like, that's an easier way to think
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: of it.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you answered it pretty much exactly how I would.
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: I will say too, though, I think this is another
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: good concept for this show. So I'll hit it again
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: because some have heard it. But I think it's important
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: is to me, at least price matters, and that's another thing.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: Pickens is not. I mean, he's almost seven k.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: So for his big day, I think it's going to
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: involve more like something else happened and that turns out
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: to be a bigger spot than we expect. There's more
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: on that later, I think, but just to note it,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: I will say, like the example last week the got
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: brought up was with quarterbacks with their running back and
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: that you know, it actually just got brought up yesterday too,
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: by the way, with Squirrel Patrol and him and I
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: have sort of disagreed on this, and I said, I
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: like Fields and Hall together and leave Wilson out, because
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: I said, it's like eleven two hundred for the.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Whole end zone.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: And if as someone said, I think I just saw
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: it here is like you know, talking about Isaiah Davis.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: But if Alan removing Allen clears the path of breeze
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: to get the goal, and we're assuming Fields doesn't run
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: it in, but how many lineups with Fields are gonna
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: be with Haul? And even if that's the case without
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: Garrett Wilson, that's where you start to move some of
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: these combos around to look leverage within the spot.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: And so the idea there is also, like I said
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: last week.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: The battle was about Barkley and Hurts their max price dudes,
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: like it was the highest priced quarterback, the highest price
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: running back or close to. I think he was a
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: little less because we'd see them see et cetera. But
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: they all there's so many different stories to tell. They
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: can eat it to eat each other's lunch on the
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: goal line with the tush push stuff. They're both very expensive.
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: Ken hurts throw and has he definitely thrown passing touchdowns
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: to Barkley who just takes it eighty yards to the house. Yes,
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: Will that even matter at the end of the day
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: still maybe not because you had to pay so much
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: for them. It changes so much of the rest of
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: your lineup. It's like people want to be about getting
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: one thing right. If you had a lottery ticket for
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: the power Ball and you got one number right, like
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: that's one thing out of the ticket. You don't win shit,
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: and I don't think you're running around that excited about it.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: You need everything to go right. And the difference in
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: DFS is a lot of it is correlated in the
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: sense of if you build this way, there's there's a
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: way you can get down the lane like what we're
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: talking about here and get.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: To the full build.
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: For those key pieces you're you're leaving out, you can
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: bring them in in different places. And that's one where
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: I think it gets confused because price matters.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, last thing on the on the one offs question.
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: The other key point to remember is if you're using
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: them as a one off, tting them for their ownership,
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: and like their ownership is all that matters. The thing
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: that we're really avoiding with these mini stacks is the
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: higher comminatorial ownership than their individual ownerships suggest. Right, So
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: if you're using well, I think Pickens was at like
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: just under twenty percent, of brie was at forty percent.
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: So if you're using Greece, Pickens might be in thirty
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: percent of Briese lineups instead of his eighteen percent ownership
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: whatever it is. So if you're using Greece, now Pickens
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: is actually a higher ownership than what his overall ownership is.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: Does that make sense to him? Am I explaining that?
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Well?
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. Again, I think it's like a concept
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: that is different. So everyone's gonna sort of take time
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: to think that one through and work on it.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: But the obvious is what you're saying is like people
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: aren't thinking about a lot of people are just looking
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: at the single ownership number and saying, well, that's the ownership,
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: and they're not thinking about what that leads to. And
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: that's where I just can't say it enough times about
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: like it's it's where it all started.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: It's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: It's like, oh, this guy's chalk, you can't play him.
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Like the Puka thing last week, It's like, you got
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: if if Stafford's gonna be three percent. It used to
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: happen all the time. By the way, with Jamar Chase
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: and Burrow, everyone gets so pissed off because Jamar Chase
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: breaks the slate at Chalk and then Burrow's one to
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: three percent owned. It's like, if Jamar Chase has three
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: touchdowns today, Burrow has likely has three touchdowns unless you
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: get like a T. Higgins pas or something random in
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: the offense. But my point being that people are mad
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: about something that they had full control over. They forgot
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: something that it's you should be mad at yourself because
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: you skip the step in the thought process of if this,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: then that, like, that's what you have to be thinking about.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: That's the levels, that's the layers to it.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: And that's what you're saying is, don't just think about this,
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: think about the extra step of what that looks like
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: in the total combo or the total lineup build that
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: he might be inside.
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: I think I think I have a good way of
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: kind of explaining this and helping people kind of visualize
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: the importance of this concept, which is, imagine you're just
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: you have the dk app Open, You're you're in one
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: hundredth place in your single entry tournament, and your running
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: back does Breese Hall does something really good, and you
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: go from a one hundredth to seventieth, and now Pickins
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: does something really good and you say, ooh, I'm going
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: to go from seventieth to fortieth, but oops, you only
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: went to sixtieth. Why because so many of the people
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: who have Breecee also have Pickens, So you expected that
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: like each of them would help you the same amount.
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: But so many people who had bree who like also
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: then took that jump with you from hundredth to seventieth,
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: now are also taking that jump with you. So you
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: can't pass that many more people. We want every single
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: time one of our guys does really well to have
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: that ability to jump forward and pass a bunch of
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: people to get to the top of the leaderboard. And
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: so when you go to these mini stacks, when you
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: go to these higher comminatorial ownerships than their individual ownership suggests,
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: that's why it matters. It makes it harder to link
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: frog a bunch of people at the same time because
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: all of the people who are up there already with you.
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: They're up there because you guys had the same guy
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: get you there at Breze Hall in this example, and
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: now you also have the same next guy who's getting there,
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: which is Pickens, and you know, maybe now then the
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: next play is like, you know, Fields, there's a touchdown
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: to a tight end, and it was because so many
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: people have those guys together. Now you're getting leap frogged
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: and they've already been up there with you because Fields
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: was up there. So that's why think the game stack
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: is the better way to do it if you really
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: like the game and you really like those players.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: And it's a great example. A couple things there.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: One is like the Mason Taylor situation this week, because
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: a lot of Justin Field's lineups in single entry will
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: have Warren or McBride. And again, there will be definitely
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: be people that go the full route and say I'm
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: gonna put Taylor in there because he pairs up. It's
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: a way to separate and get different, it is, and
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: if Taylor does have you know, fifty yards five catches,
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: fifty yards and a touchdown, that does hurt a lot
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: of the Warren lineups that exist in that build type,
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: So there'd be that the same thing though last week,
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: like I said, what goes down over here can help
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: you go up if you had. There was a lot
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: of Puka Warren lineups, but and that was seemingly good
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: until it was like, oh and you need Stafford and
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: oh I played Myers in my lineup.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, now Gent's crushing.
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: Oh well, guess what the lineups that built that and
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: thought about that, that had Genty in it, are now
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: crushing you. And you now you get a Warn touchdown
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: and like, oh he's doing good, he's back. Well, it
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: doesn't help you because Gent's already fallen up the ward
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: or whatever it might be in that scenario. So again
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: you got to think about that when you're looking at stuff.
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and the only other thing I'll say there is
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: I think also throw Ferguson in that group of popular
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: tight ends in Fields lineups, because I think he'll be
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: a pretty popular bringback. I don't think too many people
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: will go like Fields Wilson, Pickens and Ferguson, but I
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: think we'll see the vast majority of Fields Wilson lineups
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: will either have Pickens or Ferguson as a bringback.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll have to see I mean again, it's all relative.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: I think in the large field stuff we'll see that
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: even less. But I think in the small field stuff
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: that makes a ton of sense. But then you also
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: think about the price difference. And Warren is right there,
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: and people saw him get goal line carries now, and
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: of course he got goal line carries last week. It
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: means this week he's absolutely going to get more goal
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: line carries. Right. We know how the NFL works, so
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: just thinking about it from that perspective, it's always ways
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: to make things different.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, there's some questions there. We went through some
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: of those game stacks.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: Anything else you wanted to talk about with the other
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: games on the slate, Like I think the Detroit factor
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: is interesting, and then I think the Charger stuff with
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: like the over stacks and the Herbert stuff. Again, I
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: don't don't don't want to give away too much. We'll
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: get to.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Our leverage lane at the end, our own lanes.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: But anything else you want to talk about from those
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: two spots or anything else you had.
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: We're gonna talk more about Detroit Cincinnati, so we can
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: just save that one one other. Actually I'll give two
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: others that I am giving some consideration to. Is I
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: am thinking about Bryce young Stacks. I already mentioned like
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: how much I like Ted McMillan, and I do think
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: both one on and e Chan are in good spots.
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: I also think you can go to Darren wallerg in here,
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: So turning that into a game stack, I think is viable.
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: And I really, really, really actually like a double stack
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: of Jackson Dart with Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson, super
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: super cheap. It needs a bring back on New Orleans.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: And that's the hardest part for me. I don't like
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: any of the Saints this week. I think a lobby
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: is going to be massively over owned. I'm I'm a
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: little bit wary of Camara.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: I liked Kamara a lot last week. I hated how
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: involved Kendre Miller was. And we also now are are
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: gaining a sample this year of like Rattler is just
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: not throwing to Kamara the way you know, Derek Carr
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: throw to Kamara, so that that hurts, and like, actually,
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: like the weirdest thing about then is a lot of
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: like the designed receiving stuff for the running backs like
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: a well executed screen pass actually going to Miller and
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: not Camara. So I don't like what I'm seeing from
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: Kamara in that way. She hate is probably the guy
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: that I would go to as a bringback. But now
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: you have like an insanely cheap game stack, where I
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: almost think it might be too cheap, because how are
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: you even you know, using all that salary at that point.
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: But that's something I'm looking at, and what I might
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: end up doing is just playing a Dark double stack
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: on the early slate instead of the main slate. But
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: I I think that's a really really intriguing one. New
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: Orleans is obviously very bad. I like the I really
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: like just darts overall kind of price and outlook here
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: we saw six designed runs for him last week, so
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: there's that. And you know, Slayton is a very capable receiver,
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: and I loved his role in the fact that, like
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: he was one of the favorite targets for Dark even
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: in a matchup with the Chargers that was as bad
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: as it could possibly be for Slayton. And now he
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: has a very good matchup against the New Orleans tem
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: that plays a lot of single high and really kind
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: of allows those you know, deep downfield targets that Slayton's
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: really good at and with no neighbors. We also saw
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: THEO Johnson more involved. So I think that's actually a
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: very good double stack. And I almost wish that we
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: had more higher priced guys or more reason to find
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: a cheap stack this week than we do, because I
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: think that one's so good and so overlooked. But as
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: you'll see in my leverage lane, I maybe going the
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: polar opposite, were oute the very expensive stack instead?
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: All right, you'll Bee Trice through ten bucks in we
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: appreciate you and said, you know had this question, so
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: we want to answer this one for sure. It said
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure how popular Texas defense. So I think
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: talking Texans defense right, because they look popular. But are
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: they low owned enough that it is good to leverage
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: against the popular Saints defense?
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: What are you What are you seeing right now? In
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: the the setup?
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: It looks like people are willing to play this twenty
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: two hundred dollars Saints d at against the Giants, and
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: that's you know, your Jackson Dart stuff would be a
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: good way to leverage that because you're you're going against
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: the most What could be the most popular d on
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: the slate because people just want to, you know, punt it.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: But the Texans defense is you know, not looking that
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: far behind either, for when you go cheap, when you
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: go cheap.
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: So my my ownership has been the most accurate in
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: the industry for the last couple of years. And I
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: think like the one of the more underrated things that
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: I do is I actually kind of incorporate, Okay, how
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: are people going to respond to the ownership projections that
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: they're seeing around the industry. This is one that I'm
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: projecting people to make this exact conclusion that the Saints
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: should not be twice the ownership of the Texans when
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: the Texans are a much better defense and facing a
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: backup quarterback. So I'm actually projecting fifteen percent for the
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: Texans and Englentry thirteen percent for the Saints. But I
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: still think that that means the Texans are probably undervalued.
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: Like personally, I think efficient ownership here would be like
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: twenty percent Texans, ten percent Saints. To me, the Saints
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: are very very over owned defense. There's no chance I'm
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: using them. I don't know how high the Texans would
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: have to get where before I say I'm not going
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: to use them, but I also think there are some
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: very strong defensive plays at five percent or less, kind
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: of just a few hundred dollars more like, I really
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: like the Giants against the Saints. I think Seattle against
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense. I think going
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: up to Philly against bon Nicks, who has struggled mightily
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: against the coverages that Philly plays and against just good
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: defenses in general, makes a lot of sense of thirty
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: two hundred dollars. So I don't think I'm gonna play
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: the Texans, but I would play the Texans a million
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: times out before I play the Saints here.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think another thing too that came up
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: now that I mean, that's all you nailed that. I
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: think that's a key component. People don't look.
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: They just trust the ownership that they're seeing from wherever
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: and then say, oh, that must be the case. But
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: if you actually think, like what we talked about earlier
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: with the Justin Herbert stuff, if you actually think people
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: are going to struggle to pick the wide receiver and say,
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: let me just make this easy on myself, I'm going
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: to go to a different Justin Hope he has a
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: field day and put him with Wilson.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: Make it easy.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: That's the whole setup people do. And it's the same
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: with defense. Say well, wait, this number looks crazy. I'm
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: just gonna pivot off that and go to the Texans
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: because they're playing a backup quarterback that seems more logical.
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: The numbers end up changing that way and it changes
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: up the total rosters completely. Another concept that came up
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: quick and then we'll get to the finale of all this.
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: I think it's also about people think of combo and
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: it's automatically just two, right.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: They think, like you get a combo, it's two, but
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: like you can get.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: A burger drink fries combo three, you can get a
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: you know, a one two three knockout punt like a combo,
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: like you can still get it differently. And I think
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: that's like an example with a Chan. And then you
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: brought up Bryce Young earlier. You want to cut into
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: the look if a Chan does go off and what
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: does that mean?
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: What does that look like?
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: It doesn't necessarily mean it's Bryce Young and tet But
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: how do you quickly cut into that ownership really easily?
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: Is how many people are gonna be sitting there with
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: those lineups thinking they're in good shape, and then the
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: Bryce Young tet connection for two touchdowns, Bryce runs one
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: in a lot of a chan lineups are in trouble
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: now that don't have that or didn't think about adding
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: that layer or that level to their lineup.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: And that's where people how the heck did they get
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: to this? I would have never got if Bryce Young
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: kills me. Bryce Young kills me?
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: All right, but you're saying this could happen, just so
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: you know, if this happens, that could lead to this.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: And that's a way you can I call it slice
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: and dice. You can cut into it quickly. We saw
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: we used this one a couple of weeks ago. But
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: the Jordan Mason week, everyone wanted him, but nobody wanted
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: the Minnesota D.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: And then they're like, how do people get to the Minnesota.
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: D at three percent? And I hate defenses that get
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: thirty points? Sure I do too.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: It sucks if you don't have them, But that's how
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: people got to it. How did people get to Woody
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Marx last week? The inverse of that, there was a
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: lot of people on Texans D.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: Some people jumped the gun and said you know what,
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: I think Chubb could be a little bit left behind here.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna try and be early on Woody Marx, but
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna make it make sense. You get the Texans
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: D you get him what a combo pack in that way,
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: it's two, but it's just to say that is a spot.
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: So thinking about how you can put these things together.
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: Are the ways to look at it and then build
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: it all out and see what those builds look like.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: And I can't stress this enough. That's another thing.
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: I know we're talking single entry and people love that
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: about it, but for those that are looking to extrapolate out,
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: use the full lineups, like start build out of If
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: you've got three or four thoughts coming from this, build
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: them out. Even if you're gonna take it down to
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: single entry or go up to more lineups, think about
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: what the total build looks like. I used that lottery
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: ticket example earlier. If you get one number right on
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: the winning lotto numbers, you're not jumping around for joy.
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: So if you're lying up, it feels like, Man, this
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: and this I really think can go my way. But this,
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: this and this that seems like it's gonna be a
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: tough hill to climb. Well, then maybe you want to
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: go with the next line up where it's like, damn,
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: this feels like I covered what I want to cover.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: I just listen to those guys. I got separators in there.
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: I think this combo will be lower like I'm doing
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: this right, You'll get that feeling.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: That's how you start to build your own process. So
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: I think that's key to remember as well.
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's that's an awesome point. And like even my
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: stack decision sometimes comes down to which lineup I like more, right,
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: So like I might say, you know, I like the
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: Jackson Dart stack more than the Bryce Young stack, but
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: I like the Bryce Young lineups more, so I'm going
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: with the Bryce Young stack. So yeah, that's a great
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: point there.
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: I love that that was almost like a one liner
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: that they didn't rhyme or anything. But it's like the
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: key the way you said it is so key, Like
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: I like this quarterback, but this stack. You could say
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: even I like this stack, but I like this lineup more.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: And the lineup is what Matt. You have to play
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: a lineup, you have to play the full thing. You
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: don't if you get the stack right. A great starting
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: point for sure, yes, you need that to go correct
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: in both spots, but to win all the money, you
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: need the entire lineup to get there. And I think
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: the more experience you get the art versus science stuff,
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: but really starting to recognize the science behind the art
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: is like you can say like, Okay, if this, then
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna do that. If everyone's doing this, I can
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: do this. This would be a way to change it
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: up and get me there in a different way. And
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: sometimes too, Alex, You're already different enough. Like if you go,
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: for example, back to my previous one, if you go Bryce,
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: Tet and a Chan in single entry.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: I think you can do. I'm not saying you don't
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: have to put any more separators or pull them any
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: like pull I don't.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: You don't need to pull five more levers would be.
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: My point is that I'm trying to say in a
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: better way, you're.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: You're not maybe you need to go one more. You're
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: maybe not all the way there, but.
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: You are already pretty different with just Bryce Young and
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: maybe Tet as a way to also be different with
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: your A Chan lineups.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: But you do have more spots to fill.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: I just I would say that's important to think about
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: when you're building out your entire lineup.
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think if I'm doing that, I probably want
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: like a either Tommy Tremble or Darren Waller in there
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: as well. Tremble would be especially valuable there because if
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: he scores the touchdown and you're helping Bryce Young actually
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: get to a ceiling performance, It's like that's kind of
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: the hardest part of the Bryce Young step, right, It's
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: like I can see Ted having a great game, I
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: can see Ted having a ceiling performance, but he might
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: do that as eighty percent of the Bryce Young passing production.
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: So having Tremble in there, who can really help Bryce
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: Young go from an eighteen point performance to a twenty
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: six point performance could be key there to actually turn
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: it into a separator.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think this is important, Jenna. We appreciate
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: you joining us.
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: I saw I add some questions earlier too, And I
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: think like for a lot of people, especially if your
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: first time watching this one, the concepts are I would
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: say this just you know, to be totally honest and clear,
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: like they're definitely not beginner concepts, so you may have
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: to go back, and I would just suggest this to everybody.
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: I always think like the way you learn is to
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: re listen, go back and start sort of trying to
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: review an application.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: I talk about that a time with the MA my project,
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: like you got.
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: To review, but I think if you just rewind back
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: or after this is done, watch this through with us
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: live and then go back to it. The way Alex
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: said it was like very clear to not so he's
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: not saying that.
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: You avoid it.
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: He's saying there's ways that you can do it differently.
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: And then also like I think the best example is
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: when we went to the Hall Pickens one. You were
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: pretty clear on that, but maybe you want to add
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: on here quickly.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: To it as well.
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: I think she's saying it right here that we're avoiding
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: mini stacks and just full game stack if you like
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: those those guys. So it seems like number one, Jenny,
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: you kind of have it. But also i'd say the
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: reason why we're avoiding the ministacks is two reasons. Number one,
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: it's because that combination is higher owned than the individual
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: players should be, so you're avoiding that like higher combinatorial ownership.
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: But the second part is you're also trying to thread
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: like a really thin needle in terms of how the
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: correlation works for you where you're you're saying, I'm using
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: this mini stack because these players are correlated, but they're
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: not related well enough to help the entire game go off.
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: So it's just a really hard thing to get exactly
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: right when so many people now are mini stacking, and
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: in particular, like we're highlighting the ones we really want
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: to avoid because we know there are going to be
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: so many lineups that do include the quarterbacks, that do
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: include a second pass catcher or something on the other side.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it's it's like the thought here is the
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: combinatory ownership between Pickens and Garrett Wilson is going to
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: be too high. But also, if you're right about those
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: two guys, it's incredibly likely that you're wrong about not
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: playing Fields or Prescott. We want to be right about everything,
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: including who we choose not to play.
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think like just in general, there is
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: many stacks that you can play and get away with.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Like you said, there's.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: Ways that they can get there, But it's you got
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: to be thinking about the whole lineup and not just
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: that one piece. And that's what we talked about, Like
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: last week was the Pooka Warren thing. Very popular together,
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: but how many people were then adding staff Adams and
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: a donn a Mitchell like our guy Jay Walkin did
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: win one hundred k like that. That's the difference, right,
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: you got to come up over the top and add
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: a bunch more. Do you have a thought on this one?
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: And then we'll get to our leverage lane and then
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: the show here. We each have a good one this week,
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: I think, or I feel good about mine. I know
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: you've got a good one as well. But what they're
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: talking about is running Gibbs Monty and then even adding
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: in there to play the defense as well.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Do you have a thought on this? Because I do,
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: but I want to get yours first.
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I really like the idea of playing both running
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: backs on a team in Showdown, like it's to me
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: it's one of the best combinatorial ownership things that you
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: can do, where you might have both guys at thirty percent.
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: Therefore you think like they're just going to be in
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: about nine percent alignmups, but nope, they're in about three
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: percent alimps together something like that. So it's something I
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: do all the time on Showdown, but on a site
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: like this, Remember we talked about like finding separators at
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: the running back decision and how hard that's going to
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: be because chances are other running backs are going to
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: have a lot of success. I don't think you want
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: to play two guys who are cannibalizing each other on
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: this slate.
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we can't say it enough here. I
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: think people think this is a thing to do.
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: It's all this is, like I said earlier, price matters
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: in something like this slate matters. We have like nine
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: good running back plays and you're even if you get
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: this right, you can by all means victory lap me.
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: You better come with a full winning lineup though, because
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: it's not about can two of those guys get there together?
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: And you had the great call and whatever, Again, get
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: your whole lineup. Then. I hope you do this in
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: a lot of lineups too, because we're talking with single entry.
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: If you're gonna do this, you're talking about them both
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: coming through and beating like nine other running backs on
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: this slate, and there's a chance, like you said, they
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: end up hurting each other.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: You know, you need like Gibbs to be the full
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: first half, Manty the full second half. It can happen.
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: We saw it against the Ravens again on a full
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: slate like this particular slate. I actually don't even know
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: if that's gonna matter for you. Still right, it'll be
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: a good start, but then you got to get so
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: much else right with just the one lineup. If you
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: think that's a way to make it easier for yourself,
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: by all means, giver, But I don't think it's the
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: best use of the running back slots on this late
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: using one of them though, And maybe that's a good segue.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: We'll get to the end here.
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: Alex is definitely this Detroit since he game right, Detroit
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: has almost what is it, a thirty point team total again,
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: give or take. I use this to my advantage. Last
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: year I had a ton of stacks where I just look,
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna figure this slight out really easily. I'm just
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: gonna play the team that's probably gonna put up thirty
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: to fifty points the way it looks, and last year
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: it was even higher.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: In this spot.
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: Detroit could just smash here and then there will be
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: guys that you need from Detroit. If that's the case,
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's very likely they could spread it out,
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: but typically you'll need something what's your thoughts on that game,
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: and then give give your leverage lane.
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: Well, I'll just give my leverage lane because it's from
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: this game, so it's a pretty easy one to kind
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: of talk about the whole thing. So my leverage lane
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: is both Jamar Chase and Jamison Williams. I do not
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: know which side I'm going to end up playing, but
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: I can tell you with almost certainty that this is
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: going to be my game stack. And it's just a
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: question of am I using golf and either a double
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: or triple sack with golf, or am I using Browning
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: and going with Higgins and Chase. I'll start with the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: Detroit side because I think this is the obvious answer,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: And to be honest, I am a little bit concerned
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: with the Montgomery going home. Like we know, Dan Campbell
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: really kind of takes care of his players, and it's
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: propping going to give Montgomery a touchdown, which takes one
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: passing touchdown opportunity away from golf. But they could still
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: score fifty points, so they could still obviously still get
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: there with golf. But I love Jamison Williams here because
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: he has been near the top of the league in
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: deep targets and in the air arts. This year, he
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: already has nine deep targets. He only had thirteen last year,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: so they're really really using Jamison Williams deep. The difference
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: is he caught five of thirteen last year. He's only
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: caught two of nine this year. So I think the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: efficiency is going to regress, and I think they're still
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: going to try to be aggressive down the field team,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: so I think very big games are coming for him.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: This is a great matchup, So I think James and
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: Williams ceiling game coming, and I love just what he
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: does to the overall game environment. When he hits on
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: that big play, you give Cincinnati the ball right back.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: The second part of this is Jamar Chase. Especially on
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: this slate where the expensive wide receivers are not that
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: great and there's there's not a ton of ceiling in them,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: Chase should not be anywhere near single digit ownership. He
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: should be twenty to twenty five percent, even with Browning
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: as a quarterback. And I urge you guys to remember
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: that Browning has actually been a very capable backup quarterback.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: He had three three hundred yard games in a four
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: game stretch a couple of years ago, he helped Jamar
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: Chase to an eleven reception like one hundred and seventy
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: yard and a touchdown game. He helped t Higgins too,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: I think one forty and a touchdown even without chasing
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: that game. So he has been very productive in the past.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: We collectively are like writing him in. The Bengals offense
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: completely off because of two really bad games against the
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: Broncos and against Brian Flores and the Vikings. These teams
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: are the second worst matchup for quarterbacks and the fourth
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: worst matchup for quarterbacks in our DVA just at fantasy
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: points against Ata over at a ften fantasy. I do
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: not want to overreact to that. Browning and the Bengals
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: are gonna throw the ball a ton in this game.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: They have to.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: They can't run. Detroit shuts down the run. They should
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: be way behind. So if we're having Browning throw forty
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: to forty five times, he's mostly throwing to Chase and Higgins.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: I love the idea of a double stack for Browning,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: and at the very least, I love Jamar Chase as
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: at bringback to Detroit stuff so leverage lane. I don't
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: know which side I'm gonna be on. But it's a
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: game stack including both Jamar Chase and Jamison Williams.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I love that.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: And let's talk about, you know, a secondary stack that
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: you're not using it as a secondary stack because you're
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: picking a quarterback at one point. But like you said,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: if you just even think of those two together, the
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: ceiling outcomes you talked about earlier, what they're capable of,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: on top of the fact that they're both separators on
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: this slate because they're just not the popular build.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: They're not the popular setup.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: Some will say all about I know I heard this
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: guy say, Jamison will Yeseople.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: A lot of people talk a lot of things.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: It's what they actually do in their lineups, and we
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: have ownership going in and know this stuff. It's just
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: not gonna be super popular.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: Another thing. And it's not even against the chat.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: You're just like bringing stuff up like this, Like my
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: family's in attendance every week. It doesn't make me win
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: the Millie Maker, like this guy could get a touchdown
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: because of that. I guarantee you the SINCD is not
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: very good. But they don't care who's in attendance. They're
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: gonna be trying to stop him. If you think he's
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: having a big game, play him. But I don't think
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: any of those things are reasons why people have a
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: big game.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: It's it's just a storyline for afterwards.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: And when he does score on Sunday and they show
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: a sister in the stands and all that.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: That's you can say whatever.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: It's just my point is that it's not because of that.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: It's the guy's either gonna get in or he's not.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: Like you can bet on it doesn't mean it's gonna
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: be one of the best three running backs on the slate.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: If you want to say that, people are using that
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: in the flex and that ends up being required. There's
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: just so many other factors to it. But my leverage lane,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: I can't get away with it. I get away from it.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: I have the conviction. Like I said, it's not often
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: that you see. Usually it's a starting running goes out
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: and then we're we're talking about backups. We got a
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: backup that was getting in the way of what I
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: like with the starting running back, and I like the
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: Breeze Haw spot this week.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: So I got my build and it's just gonna be
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: to flip the build. I'm going to Dak.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: I'm going to Pickens and I'm going to Ferguson, And
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: that's the key component here because he's to me. Like
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: I said, even if you see him getting plugged in
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: as the run back in some of those fields lineups
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: right now, I'm seeing Fields, Jones, Herbert, There's a bunch
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: of like even before we get to Dak. And so
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: I think that Fields could speed up the game. But
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: I think we could see the spot. Lamb is out,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: like all these other factors are leaning that way, Turpin
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: is out, and so you can build this however you want,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: but I'm definitely in my spot.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: Is gonna be. Like I said last week, I picked
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: four guys.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: I'm going Dak, Pickens, Ferguson with Breese Hall, and you
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: can build it out from there. You know, it doesn't
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: mean certain guys or other guys don't get in there.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: But I'm leaving it with that. And remember all the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: stuff that we talked about on this show. If I'm
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: doing that, what am I not doing? What does that
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: mean for the where the rest of the build goes.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: And I'll be I'll have it up on the site
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: over Tribernation be part of my core. But that's the
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: that's the main starting point that I'm gonna be running
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: with this week. And I do like just flipping the build.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: We saw the Mariota stuff a few weeks ago where
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: he was super popular and you know that was more price,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: but when it got flipped to the other side and
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: ended up being Geno that was needed when when nobody
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: was there, there's there's not a lot of Dak conversation
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: as much as there is for Pickens and and Hall
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: as like a secondary stack. I'm jumping in up over
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: the top and then I'll build the lineup accordingly from
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: there to take advantage of some of the other spots.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: I'm not landing within my stack. Any other final thoughts
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: from you, Alex and anything else you want to add.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: There, No, I think it's a it's a really sharp
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: way to build. And to your point, like we have Dak.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: We have Dak projected at four percent single entry ownership,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: So even if you're using all popular skill position players
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: number one, it means you're still getting that separator in
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: Dak himself. But also it tells us that because he's
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: only in four percent of lineups, Pickens and Ferguson probably
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: are gonna be pretty unique together and so then the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: separator can be well, both of them have a great game, right,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: Pickens has one hundred yards in a touchdown and Ferguson
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: has eight receptions in a touchdown. So yeah, you have
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: you have plenty of separators within that leverage lane E level.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think that's what you have to remember
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: is even with like, oh some of those guys are
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: still chalky. It's just that and like it's when if
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: you have conviction on something, you don't have to like
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: people lock or fade, like that's a bad hook for
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: a TikTok video. Three years ago, I said, like that,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: that's what that is. Like you don't have to lock anyone,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: you don't have to fag anyone. Now in single entry,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: they're all locks, like once you put in your line up,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: you locked them in.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: It's a single entry.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: But the setup is is there is so many other
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: spots to get even more separators. But Dak is already
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: the starting point for me, because if he's coming in
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: at four and five percent, a lot of Pickens owners
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: are gonna be pissed off. If he has one hundred
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: and fifty yards and two touchdowns and they just have
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: him and then it's Dak breaking the slate, right or
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: something like that.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be there, go ahead.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: I also think it's really important here that you have
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: Breese's that bring back and not Garrett Wilson, right, Like
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: if you and Garrett Wilson is to bring back when
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: he hits, Fields is going to hit. Briese can hit
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: without Fields having that ceiling performance, so you can actually
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: get separation between Dak and Field. So yeah, I think
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: this is a this is a really well built leverage link.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love yours as well.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: Obviously, you know, playing three max, twenty max, I'm playing
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: you know, still one fifty. It's the kind of concept
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: of you know you can get those those and other places.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: I like this idea of the leverage, and again I've
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: obviously come in prepared. It builds out pretty nice for
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: everything else that I want to cover. So that that's
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: why I went there, And you know, I wanted to
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: make sure going through it with you and talking through everything,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: that I could still have a way to get different
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: within it.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: And I know I've got that.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: So I'm excited for this week ahead, Alex Final thoughts
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: where the people can find you everything you got going on,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: let them know, and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah, if I'm me and Alex Flicka one on Twitter,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: same as I did last week, I'll also shout out
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: just the fact that I'm doing a lot of props
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: and pick them stuff. I didn't have the best week
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: last week, and then on Monday, I was like, you
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: know what, I'm better than this, and I made a
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: couple changes to the process. Immediately hit four for four props,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: had an SGP on Bet three six five hit and
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: an underdog pick them hit, and then had a really
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: good week on Pick them for MLB playoffs. So it's
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: been a really fun props and pick them week as well,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: and we're just gonna keep rolling with that. Have a
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: ton of plays. I think I have like fifteen six
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: pickplays or something like this already in my discord for
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: this week. So it's gonna be really fun Sunday for sure.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a huge week ahead. I'm excited. I like this.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: The ten games is nice.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: It's not too many, it's not too little, like it's
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: just right the Goldilocks slate, So I love that call
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: and I'm excited for this week. So hopefully This was
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: helpful again.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Smash the like.
• 1:08:38
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• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: give us comments, let us know what you thought, any
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: questions you have. Like people posted some good comments last week.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: We brought them up to start the show. We want
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: this to be about you, helping you get better at
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: the game of dfs, thinking about it different than other shows.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Maybe you're covering that's gonna do it for this one. Guys,
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• 1:09:06
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