Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Listener Mailbag Episode! Featuring Andrew Dahl, Founder of Prospect Pulse

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Listener Mailbag Episode! Featuring Andrew Dahl, Founder of Prospect Pulse · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards. Joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly, known as JGB underscore cards underscore. And today this is not a normal episode we have for you. In fact, it's two episodes coming today that will not be normal. Why is that, you may be thinking? Well, we got the man himself here joining us in the in the studio. It's a virtual studio, but a studio nonetheless. we're joined by Andrew Dahl. Dahl does cards on X, I think, is it? What's the Dahl: Sure. Jaba: Yep? Yep. And obviously the creator of Prospect Pulse also the sponsor of this podcast. that's prospect pulse v one dot com. Best place for all of your Bowman collecting, researching, Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: needs. And yeah, no, we're super excited to have Dahl on today. we're gonna pick his brain more a bit later, but the first episode we're gonna do is a mailbag where we will answer some of your questions. So I'll kick it over to Jeremy and then we'll kinda just let whatever happened happen. Jheremy: Yeah, we'll just freestyle it. first one I'm gonna go with right off the bat, right? This is something we got from people said it on the I had a phone call today and somebody brought it up and a couple ple people have brought it up. Everybody loves a good like success story, like we bought this kid at X and he tripled Sad Bell Delzine from last year. And this is obviously for the group and I'll answer as well. They wanna know who have we bought into heavily recently? That just turned out to be the bu be a bust and Wander Franco does not count. Is there anybody that you were like and maybe you didn't even buy into him but Jaba: Yes. Jheremy: like you thought the world of like this is the guy and it just no. He wasn't the guy. Jaba: Great question. I'll I'll I'll start. I mean, I'm looking at my portfolio over on Prospect Pulse. There's a few guys who kinda had flashes earlier this year where I fell for it. bought a good bit, nothing too horrific. But you know, I'd like out. first one being Blaine Bullard. I think he's a solid player. You know, he's fine generally speaking. But that was one where I kinda got caught up in all the hype and seeing people buying And, you know, it's that scramble where you're like, I don't wanna miss out here. I gotta get some pieces, so I bought some, sent it off to PSA and by the time I got it back a couple of weeks ago, like nobody Nobody wanted it. the other one being Yeremy Cabrera. I kinda held some of him and then he got really hot at the beginning of the year. And instead of doing my usual thing, which is at least sell off some pieces, I was like, Okay, this is just who he is now. You know, let's see where this goes. It went right back down. So I think that that was, you know, kind of the second lesson there was just, you know, not kind of piecing things off once you're up. And then the third one that was just kind of a miss. everyone knows I think that I did really well with Anthony Ianson. I also went like equally big on Kyson Witherspoon. I have two of his true reds. That's not great. Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: you know, h if you look at the stats, if you take out April, his ERA like three 390 and they were kind of retooling everything with his wind up and kind of the way he was attacking hitters. So I'm not saying he's dead yet, but that was one that was just kind of a classic just miss. I mean there's nothing I would really do differently. Like it's not like I was missing any huge red flags. I just kinda got it wrong. so that's kinda three from me. all that I got wrong or made a mistake with various reasons. Jheremy: What do you got doll? I know there's gotta be somebody in there. Jaba: Yeah, the d dolls like you guys yeah, you guys mess. Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: no, no, no. Like I definitely found myself getting way too caught up in the hype of pitchers in the twenty twenty five or twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five season. Kinda carried that over into this season and felt like most of my big losses came in investing pitchers to the point where Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: I'm pretty I'm pretty hesitant to even buy pitchers at this point in time. I got burned pretty bad with George Clausen. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Dahl: You know, he wasn't always like the the best pitcher. He's always kind of struggled with that control piece, but but the the strikeouts, the the whiffs, they were exciting and I was hoping like one good debut could be like ch change the entire market. That just didn't end up happening. He was terrible in his Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Right. Dahl: debut. And for those of you Jaba: And it it's funny 'cause w when he came back he was good too, but it's like when you're in a smaller market, obviously the Angels, you know, now that they got Cronky, maybe it won't be a small market, but it's like with the Yankees you can get like a second chance. I think with like the Angels pitchers, it's like you come up, you're bad in your debut, you're dead. Whereas Class and came Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: back was pretty good. And it's just yeah, sorry to cut you off. I just kinda wanted to make that distinction. Dahl: No, no. You're good. It it's it's something that's it's a little bit interesting in like the the picture market itself and the fact that like it feels like the debut is everything. I I did something last Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Dahl: season that kind of did like a Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: snapshot of how prices move and you know, it probably does have a lot to do with the with the markets and stuff, but if you don't have a good debut, it's almost impossible to get back to even like pre debut prices. So That's definitely Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Dahl: something that that burned me this this past year. It was definitely like George and another pitcher, Mitch Bratt among the two biggest losses I had. I had no idea Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: why I even bought Mitch Bratt. I I just liked him. I thought he was fun. 'cause he was different than like most like exciting pitching prospects and you know, even Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: investing like very little money into him I still got burnt pretty big. So you know thing that that's something I'm gonna keep in mind as we go into next season, probably try and stay a little bit more clear of pitchers unless I have some very strong conviction about certain individuals. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. It it's funny you mentioned that 'cause I I remember when you were putting together kind of that that data on pitchers and it's like, you know, they come up And you get like the foundational price. And it's like every start that they have that's good, it just keeps like building and building and building. But then like even if you get like five good starts, like once you get one that's like doesn't even have to be terrible, it can like, you know, five innings, four earned runs, dead back to the foundation or lower and like, you know, you're really gonna Jheremy: Very hard. Jaba: have to go bananas, like you're gonna have to like Miz to go back up. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: So yeah, I think pitchers was something where we were both, I know just from talking over like the last year, we were both like pretty big on pitchers and I think, you know, that you know, just how volatile it is, I I think, you know, it seems like we're both not walking away from pitchers, but a little more hesitant. Jeremy, let's hear your Jheremy: Mean, I just went through like I have a drawer of slabs next to me and it's like, okay. Jaba: Okay. Jheremy: Like, here we go. I think my problem is getting caught up in the hype. Like you read one tweet about anybody and it's like shit, I need something. Like, just give me whatever's available, like that makes sense. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: I can do that. Like, an Anderson Brito True Gold PSA ten. I bought that for three hundred bucks 'cause it made sense. Like he didn't pitch this year. So right in line with that. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: The thing with it though is like a burrito or like taking a chance on a Sad Biel last year, as opposed to like a Class in, who I have a lot of, Brody Hopkins, who I have a lot of, who is kind of alive now. And even like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Mitch Bratt, is their Bowman runway is a lot shorter than a Sad Biel or an Anderson Burrito who's lower in the minors. Where all it takes is that one Bowman, we like to call it, where like you get that tweet for throwing one two or something, and your market is all of a sudden completely different. And then trying to zig when other people zag and try to like make your own path and be smarter than everybody else. Like I bought a ton of Sam Shaw. Why? I don't know. Like I read a couple good things and the underlying numbers were fine. Like Canadian kid in the Blue Jay system high school pick, like gets on base, and then it's like I mean, I was buying true blues and true golds for sub twenty bucks, but it's just like you buy enough of those and they add up. No offense to Sam Shaw or his family. Like maybe he still has some life to him. But like just like I I did buy a lot of Trevor Cohen early and I feel like that one might work out okay for me 'cause I think the Sam Antonacci like profile is very much alive with him. But just kind of Jaba: You got in so cheap on him too. Jheremy: Sochi like I just think as I continue to like pan through is like just because it's seems like a good deal doesn't mean you always have to buy it. Just like, it's a true gold and this kid kind of has life. Like I I fall into that trap a lot. So I don't have like one big loss because I don't go heavy on a singular player too often. But I definitely have many small losses of fifty to a hundred dollars where it's like I should have just not even bothered falling into like an Ugarte trap from the Royals or you can just go through Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: the list. I mean obviously for anybody who knows me, like I bought a ton of Ethan Peko. He was never like he was good across the board, solid average, had nothing to wow in a bad organization with the Astros in terms of a market. Like, struggled to get called up until late in the year. Bombed his debut. Like I got a snack auto, true blues, galore. Like. But he was so cheap that it is what it is. But at the same time, like I should have taken a step back and been like, What do you need 44 Ethan Peko autos for? Like, get a couple true colors and be done. So Ethan Pekko, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: I mean, and I still will sing the praises of him just because I have so many of And I still do think he's gonna be good. I just don't think he's gonna be great. I don't think his market's gonna recover. I hope it does. I just don't know if it's going to. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I mean like even while you were saying that I I literally looked to my right and on the top of a stack there's a gold Chase Shores. Like I I don't even think he's bad, but it's like why did I buy that? Like, come on. Like he's what, like the eighth best pitcher in the organization? And again, I don't think he's like bad at baseball. But like it's like stuff like that where like it adds up and then you're like, if I took all that money I had spent there, like I could have gotten like a Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: serious card of somebody that like I really, really believe in. but But yeah, I think kinda similar similar thoughts there and different ways of getting there. But yeah, what what do we got up next? Jheremy: Well, Doll, do you ever fall victim of like your own game of seeing numbers move and shift and you're like, let me go get something real quick? 'Cause like you you're looking at it, you built it, you see it real time. Where something just flashes like, this one just jumped up ton and I can get it like under that. Does that ever happen for you or not really? Like are you good? Dahl: yeah, I so I I I always like to say like be patient, like short term filter, short term changes that a lot of people have brought up to me aren't always the the best thing to follow. But of course I I fall victim to like short term Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: hype, seeing the name pop up more and more on Twitter amongst like dynasty content creators Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: and stuff. It Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: it's hard to hard to avoid. It's hard to stay away from. and it definitely never w works out for you. So It's important to try Jheremy: Right now. Dahl: and be patient and like pick your spots more carefully than falling victim to those short term changes and being super Jheremy: For sure. Dahl: reactionary. Jaba: Yeah, and I I I feel like now with social media and how many people Like you said in this space, I think a lot of it is, you know, dynasty fantasy baseball creators, but the overlap, you know, between dynasty and the hobby is so, you know, kind of in lockstep Jheremy: Very strong. Jaba: where, you know, I think it's all great resources. But the problem is it's like there are a lot of smart people that make good content, but it's like there's a new guy every single day. It's like i if you try to buy every new guy, like you're just gonna be spread so thin around various places and you know, I don't have a good answer. as to how to kind of like ascertain, you know, when a guy's gonna be work chasing or not, like and how you figure out if it's legitimate. But like that is a great point, you know, with social media these days. It's like there's gonna be a guy every day. And in a way, it's like you just have to hope that it's a guy you're holding and you can take advantage of it on that side rather than buy. Jheremy: Right. You gotta be like not reactionary. Jaba: Yeah, which is impossible. For most people. Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah, I think it's human nature. I mean I I Dahl: Super. Jheremy: I saw a tweet this spring about Haroberto Rincone like having a two hit game and I immediately went to eBay. Like, he's a medskid Jaba: Ha ha. Jheremy: that has some life. Like, let's go. I didn't buy any. I I've I did back myself off of that ledge, like what are we doing? Like, take a breath. Let's dig jest. Jaba: Yeah, that's that's for the best. Jheremy: next question, doll, we I I'm gonna go right to you because Job and I talked about this a bunch already. AFL's coming up. Is it a buyer's market, a seller's market, a hold market? How would you go about like trading cards or trading players in terms of buy sell hold during the AFL? Dahl: So I've actually been kind of working on like an off season study based on prices over the past few seasons to see how how markets move. And I think the AFL is an interesting situation, right? It it's one of the few places where we don't see cards dropping immediately into the off season. And we do see some massive risers depending on like these these breakout candidates, you know. Instead of having your attention split across a hundred minor league games, there's only a couple every day. So the attention's Jheremy: Right. Dahl: concentrated on a a smaller group of players and more eyes are on these games. So there are opportunities to make some money. I personally, if I was holding someone going into the AFL, I wouldn't be selling right now. I wouldn't be buying them either. I would just kind of be monitoring the situation more as like, it could be good. It could would be bad as opposed to someone who, you know, the season's over going into the off season, it's likely to see Jheremy: Big cleaning. Dahl: us a small depreciation and value. It's just natural in terms of how how the off season moves. So the AFL's interesting. I I think like you can definitely find some players and can put some new candidates on your radar. But it's hard to say whether or not you should buy or sell at this point. Jheremy: Yeah, that's fair. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: And I feel like you're almost if you didn't buy already, like it's probably a good time to just wait. Like it starts this weekend in two days. I see Bo Davidson just got added to a roster down there. Aaron Sabato got added. Like they're still adding some names. Jet Williams was another one recent. But I just Jaba: Sabato's going back again. Jheremy: Yeah. Made his debut at the end of the year too. But I it just feels like if you haven't bought already like kind of prepping for it, like go by a couple guys you think could break out. You still have a small window, but I feel like that window's rapidly closing. And like you said, pipeline's now gonna cover every game. Whereas they might grab a highlight from the East Coast, a highlight from the West Coast, and that's it. Now I truly think like it's gonna be the center focal point moving forward of minor league baseball, obviously. And it also shortens that off season window, which kind of leads into the next question for both of you. And I can answer it as well. basically for the people who are new to Bowman, and I had somebody actually reach out in DMs about it too. Like, how do you approach the off season? Is the off season price dips? Everyone was saying, like, the time to buy is the off season, but it felt like there it was a such a short window last year that there really is no off season in Bowman anymore. do you guys agree, disagree? Like you're gonna have natural slips, especially when draft comes out, but it feels like Draft is that perfect bridge in that dead time of baseball where it kind of is now a continuous loop throughout the year. Agree, disagree, what do you guys think? Jaba: Doll, you go first. Dahl: I I personally think like the past few years have just been so massive for Bowman where where you you're right, like the window has just become more narrow because there there's more people trying to get into this into this space. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Dahl: I I do like I had kind of mentioned earlier, I do have you the study I've been working on and like what we're seeing in the off season isn't a huge dip anyways. It goes down to like ten percent drop in value out. worst for most players and the window to buy is really short. It it's something that like it's hard to really pick your spots. And I'm of the mindset that a ten percent swing isn't that massive. If if you find someone you like and you want to invest in their cards really any time in the off season is is pretty safe. I mean, maybe it drops ten dollars. Jaba: Yeah, and I I think I'd be curious to hear from you. Like, I agree with everything you said about you know, the dip not really being there. I feel like if anything, the only dip is in like the volume of activity. Like I feel like right now it's pretty hard to sell stuff unless it's like the top guys. But like when I do sell stuff, I still get a solid price for it, I find. It's just like there just aren't as many people buying it, whether they're buying other stuff or, you know, they're just shutting down baseball for a little bit. But yeah, I Dahl: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know, I I feel exactly the same where it's like Yeah, there's gonna be like a few steals, but I think it's more just in the sense where those steals are always happening and there's just like less cards being posted, so like the rate of steals may go up. But like it it's really just like the same, you know, people not knowing what they have and throwing it up on eBay way too low, stuff like that. Like Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: it it does really and I feel like with Bowman draft around Christmas, it's like like you had said, it's like the perfect segue into spring training because it's like hot for like one or two months and then you're in mid late February. Dahl: Yeah, like the the the drop we see is something that like really starts around this time. It bottoms out mid October and stays like kind of volatile, going up and down, still below like baseline Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: prices from the end of the season, but it stays that way until like January and then we kind of start to see it pick back up. And it's like it's interesting, like you had kind of mentioned the the volume as well. Like There's about sixty six percent fewer sales on cards over the off season as well. So like the the volume Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: drops for sure and then it just comes back full swing once we get to like January, February, spring training starts to pick up and everyone's starting to get excited for baseball again. Jaba: Yeah, I mean w would you say like obviously once it picks up, you know, it's kinda just in full swing and away we go through the season. Would you say that there's like a point in the season where you see it slow down at all? Or do you think that the entire at least minor league regular seasons, so call it mid September? Would you say that it's like now just at a point where it's steady through the season because of the amount of people kind of in the Bowman space now? Dahl: In terms of like sales volume, like it probably does have a bit of like a mid season lull. Everyone's kind of picked their spots and they're starting to hold the see see where markets go. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: but prices pr stay pretty consistent throughout the season. maybe just just a slight decrease in in volume. Other than that, it's it's not like everyone's kind of picked their spots, they're they're settled in, everyone's trying to make their money the same way, you know. Jaba: Yeah, and you're kinda in your war bunker just waiting for something to happen one way or another. Yeah, I I I definitely feel that. Do you have a PC? And if so, what is it? Dahl: boy. my like I kinda mentioned Jaba: Doesn't have to be baseball. Dahl: like I kinda mentioned earlier, my my PC was pretty much Mitch Bratt. he was just so different, dude. I don't know why I liked him so much. He was just different, but other than that, I I I try not to be like too personally invested in cards. I I view this more as like a business and trying to to make money and like enjoy the hobby. I'd probably say outside of like Bowman, my PC would probably be like random Bills player autographs. Like I have far too many Ray Davis autographs for god knows what reason. He gets four Jaba: Ha ha ha Dahl: snaps a game and does not seem to be a huge contributor, but like it's really more of a business in my in my mind at this point in time. I feel like I've kind of watched myself through the throes of the market, go up and down and stay steady. And it it just like if you can make money, why not make money? I I I don't have like any any strong feelings Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: toward towards any one specific player or card that would prevent me from from trying to make that money. Jaba: Yeah, no, I I I feel like that's like the best mindset possible to have. And I think it's tough because I mean, like, for me, it's like I love collecting the cards. I love the guys I like. But at the same time it has kind of flipped to a point where like the Bowman stuff feels like such an investment where I'm like, I gotta keep the emotion out of it. So like like you said, like I I try to not even collect Mets really. Because I'm like, okay, if they're bad in real life, I'm also gonna lose money. And then I'm just like pissed off for two reasons. Dahl: Mm-hmm. Jaba: But yeah, I have I have some Soto stuff just because I know he's stuck with the Mets whether or not he wants to be there. I know he's there and he's gonna be a Hall of Famer. so Soto is like the only safe bet 'cause I used to have a lot of Pete Alonso and then when he was bad in twenty twenty four until the wild card series, I was like, I don't even want this. and then like last year I kind of sold it all off figuring he wouldn't re sign. so yeah, it's really only only Soto. I've Jonathan the Heritage non auto super just because he was like the first guy I ever went in on and did well on. So it it's more of like a memento. But yeah, I think with the Bowman stuff I'm with you. I think like the less emotion you can have with it the better. Dahl: Yeah, I almost like never bu buy Red Sox players. I I feel like, you know, personal bias gets in the way of it and you you can make like certain assumptions Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: about players because you want them to be good for your favorite team. So kind Jaba: Right. Dahl: of just like not allowing yourself to have emotion in in the in the Bowman market is really important. Jaba: Yeah, and it i it's so difficult. Like it's easy to say, but like you know, like you said with the Red Sox, me with the Mets, you it's so hard because like you just said, you know, you can kinda make assumptions and even say, okay, well, you know, when I go on Twitter, I obviously get a lot of Mets stuff and I see these guys hyped up, it's like, okay, like I I know more than someone else, but like it's really just seeing more positive stuff and not really not really knowing. Although I will say I regret not buying any Mitch Voigt when he was super low. I just kinda didn't buy in there. but yeah, he was like free. Dahl: He was he was one of those guys though that it was hard to see that that just skyrocket coming. Like it it was one of those things where he sat so low for so long and then all of a sudden just took off, went pretty nuclear. So it's Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: hard to like hard to look back and say like I should have bought this person when forever they sat at that price and then one thing happens and then they're f three times that price, you know? Jaba: Yeah, I I mean 'cause It was justifiable too, 'cause I mean he he was bad to start the year for like a re a real sample. I'm trying to pull up the splits here. But yeah, like April six ninety six OPS, May six ninety nine, like he just wasn't doing anything. And like you kinda combine that with like people saying that the Mets really reached making him a first rounder. It was kinda easy to be like, Okay, well this just isn't gonna be a guy and then obviously he went nuts and made everyone look stupid. But You know, I think with those guys, that's another example of kind of even though I missed on it, you know, I don't really regret not going in because I feel like I had the right yeah, you know, mindset behind it. I'm like, Okay, well I nine times out of ten that probably works against me. So Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: I think we got we got Dahl: Yeah, I I remember I was at a Fisher Cats game earlier this year against the Sea Dogs and I watched Garcia hit a home run to left field and I was like, I think we gotta like tinker with his his hit tool grade. I mean, he's been pretty on fire and like he's been pretty mu pretty dominant in tr double A and then his price didn't move at all. So it's like I I I had this like emotion that could have drove me to buy a lot of his cards 'cause he was stupid cheap. But you know, the market's kinda spoken. doesn't seem to have a whole lot of interest in a in a player like him and you know, he he does have a a thirty five, forty grade hit tool for a reason. It's not something that that is ever going to really change overnight and the market's not gonna respond in in that manner. Jaba: Yeah. All right. Last last big one we had was someone was asking, you know, they said that they heard from other podcasts that the twenty six draft class was fantastic. I think we all saw a lot of you know, hype on social media about it. Looking ahead to Bowman Draft, I guess I'll start with Jeremy, 'cause these guys are really your your wheelhouse and you're gonna be the guy I'm leaning on a lot here. how excited are you for this year's Bowman draft release? I I guess maybe relative to other years would be a good measurement. Jer Jeremy cut out again there, but I mean again, I think Jeremy is gonna be the guy to talk to here. But I think that It it's very exciting because I I think the issue last year is there were really no big college hitters and those are gonna be the guys that are the fastest to them to the majors most exciting. Obviously in twenty-four you had Cam Smith, Kurtz, Carson Benge, I'm forgetting like five guys, but that was so many guys quick to the majors where I think a lot of people saw that and they were like, it's so easy to make money in Bowman because you know it's like you wait six Monson, these guys are in the major leagues and they're playing well. Last year was kind of missing that, and then you know, picks one and three, Chalowski and Lackey, both advanced college guys. I know Chalowski people are, you know, really expecting him to move fast. I know he wasn't great in the minors, but you know, we'll kind of see how that develops. And then some other names I'm excited for. I think Bo Lawrence with the Dodgers is gonna be a monster. I I like Jared Group. Grindlinger, the guy the Angels took. He's also not turning 18 until April. But yeah, there's a lot of college hitters at the top, and I think that those are gonna be the guys that people are chasing the most just because their perceived kind of closeness to the majors, and with the way these college hitters have just kind of come into the MLB and you know, maybe they struggle for a month like Carson Benge, but then they're just like good players. I I like that you're not sharing those names. It makes me feel like I might have to go out go out and see and maybe bring my waterboarding kit. I I'm fine with you doing it as long as as long as it gets out in the trust tree at least. Dahl, you got any thoughts on on the draft? Dahl: kind of going back to what you had said earlier, not so much on twenty twenty six draft itself. I'm more of like the mindset of let's see how how the market pans out. I feel like draft is one of those products that's always been kind of harder to price out because of how fast these guys rise and like how how much hype is kind of carried behind them. But Looking at like the twenty twenty four draft checklist, there's already been seventeen players that have reached CMLB, and that includes, like you had said, guys like Benj, but there's also Connor Griff and Jack Hegley and I can't say his last name, apparently I'm forgetting how to speak. But like some big bats Jaba: It is a tough one. Dahl: that we just haven't seen in the twenty twenty five class, where it's only been one player that's reached the majors, and that was Kate Anderson. I mean, there's guys that will probably make their debut next year, but Who are who are you like that excited for in 2025 draft to like make it to the MLB? Murph Gray, maybe? I mean, it's Jaba: Yeah, and it's funny 'cause I mean Murph, I I forget where he went, but I feel like he was a second rounder. Another guy who's just a great hitter, you look at Devin Taylor with the athletics, he made it up to triple A this year. But it's funny because Again, this'll probably be a different one for Jeremy. again, he's having some technical difficulties. But I feel like a draft class like last year where in the following season one guy makes it to the majors, I feel like that's a lot more normal and standard. And after twenty-four, it kinda like, you know, it sounds bad saying that. But it's like I feel like the twenty-five class was, you know, maybe not great, but I feel like it was fine. And then it's just like, you know, twenty-four was just such an insane product that it it made twenty five look bad and I feel like people are going to you know be chasing twenty six again because you know like like I had said who who was even the first college hitter last year. It was Gavin Killen who really had no no buzz around him 'cause he was kind of more of like a floor over ceiling guy, you know, middle infielder who's gonna hit a lot of doubles and he wound up having a nice season. But like it was him, then Mark Houston, another guy who just sat at what, twenty bucks, like all year. I think he had a little bump. Ethan Conrad was out all year. I mean Fisher obviously went nuts. Not even gonna start any debate on him because I feel like everyone could go on all day with that. But You know, it was just a lot of arms up top and then You know, even Ethan Holliday barely played. you know, Steele Hall went to the complex. Billy Carlson basically played. I mean, that's three or top ten, being high school hitters who just didn't didn't play very much. So I think twenty-six people are gonna be very excited to see those college bats again where it's like, you know, these guys that are gonna start in high A and you know, you could see you know, speed run the minors next year. Dahl: Yeah. I I don't want it to come off like I think twenty twenty-five draft is bad. I think I think the the checklist that they released was it was solid. It's a lot of good players, but what really seems to move the needle in in hobby is those those quick risers and power hitters that just don't Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: seem to be as prevalent in twenty twenty five as as opposed to twenty twenty four. But it seems like twenty twenty six we've kind of gotten back to that. There's a lot of exciting power hitters in the twenty twenty six draft and hopefully in the twenty twenty six draft checklist. Jaba: Yeah, and I mean it it's funny you mention that because when I was, you know, trying to think of twenty four draft names, it's like, you know, if you had put Kaggs in twenty five draft, he would have been the biggest hitter far and away. Connor Griffin, if you put him in any pro product, he would have been the biggest guy. I mean, it it's like there were like ten like Kurtz, like there were like ten different guys that in like a average year or like if they had been in twenty five, that would have been like the guy. And like it's so easy to forget, like I Tags was huge. He still has like a really big market, even though he's been like okay. But it's like that twenty four draft, I think it kinda set everyone's expectations so high because they're there were like ten hobby stars and I think in a normal product, you know, you probably bet on like three or four. So Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: I I I think that this one's gonna skew closer to twenty four. But I'm also a little wary of you know I I don't wanna say I'm nervous, but I wanna be really smart with looking at these first round college hitters because I feel like they're all gonna be they're gonna have it priced in that people are expecting that almost. So I feel like you're gonna have to be really careful knowing that you know you're not gonna have the full runway of value because people are chasing those guys so heavily and have seen what the twenty four guys did. Dahl: Mm-hmm. I think like my favorite thing to say when people ask me about like the hobby market is like it's the most efficient, inefficient thing that exists in this world. Like there are so many factors that we can't quantify that are effectively priced in without like us knowing it. And it's something that that needs to be taken into consideration. Kind of just watch how how prices move throughout. Like I know I've always kind of generalized as like seven, eight weeks after release is the best time to buy. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: See where they're sitting two months after a lease and kinda make your decisions and don't don't get too caught up in the initial hype to like fall victim to these high prices because it's it's gonna come down. It's just a matter of how much it comes down. Jaba: Yeah. And I I mean it's funny because, you know, you've always said that and you know Especially with base autographs and I would say refractors as well. It's so true. Like we've been doing weekly kind of price checks here using the prospect pulse data. It's like week one to week two, they go down like fifty to a hundred percent. And then with chrome, like week two to week three, it was like another twenty-five percent down. And I feel like Chrome might be settling faster just because like baseball's ending and we're kind of speed running, getting to an equilibrium there. But You know, I I do fully agree with you on like the base autos. I I mean you can wait a month and like especially in the first week or two, like you're just shooting yourself in the foot if you buy them. I do think, you know, with high end color, I think you kind of have to just bite the bullet and you know pay a little bit of a premium up front if you want to be grading it, just because you know, people snap Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: those up and then you never see them again. And the true color that's floating around is the stuff that like eight people have passed up on, and then you get It in and you're like, great, there's like a fingernail lodged in the back. But you know, as Jheremy: But. Jaba: far as bass and refractors go, I'm with you fully there. And I think it is interesting with Chrome. It's like we were talking yesterday, like Samil Serrano is down to 20 bucks. It's like I'm not sure how much more he can go down. Cause like basically all those second-tier guys are 20 bucks, and you know, half of them will probably be, you know, names we laugh about in a year, but like half of them will be like 50-60 bucks. And for me, I'm like, Jheremy: So, Jaba: Even if he goes down another twenty five percent, I'll be fifteen bucks. I'm like, okay, I feel fine like buying his bases now. But I wonder if that's just like the timing of chrome. Dahl: Yeah, I'm I'm not sure what's going on, but I've definitely felt like it's it's dropped Jheremy: So. Dahl: pretty rapidly compared to like past releases. and I I I think like Jaba: Yeah, and I I No, no, no, you c go ahead. Dahl: I was just gonna say like I think like you make a really good point in terms of like if you're someone who's interested in like the higher end market, y you gotta act quick and you do have to you do have to bite the bullet 'cause if you wait too long it's gonna be pick through and you're kinda SOL Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: after after a certain amount of weeks and the card passes through Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: a certain number of hands, you know? Jaba: Yeah, I mean like even now, like I'm like watching the auctions every night for kinda high end collar and it's like for the first two weeks, you know, you're seeing like fifty high end collar cards a night of good players where you're like, like I have to like pick and choose my spots. And now, I mean, today's three weeks in a day after release, and it's like last night, like there were only like two or three that like looked clean that I even like looked at. you know, it's funny and I I guess that that's kinda Jheremy: So, thank you Jaba: It's kind of a reverse thing where instead of building your foundation of your portfolio first with kind of like the bases and you know the safer plays, it's like you almost have to take your shots first, and then once everything settles, you're like, okay, I'm gonna get like, you know, supplementary pieces and kind of get bases and so I I think and you know, having talked about it and thought about it, I feel like the market settling might not just be the timing, and I think it's just because of how many people are getting. Jheremy: you you Jaba: Into Bowman now, which I think is great, you know, just to have more people in it. I think that it benefits everyone and makes it a more serious market. But at the same time, it's like there's so many people where it's like musical chairs, everyone's playing, and then you know, you get your stuff, and then you're a month out and the dust is settled, and then it's just kind of waiting for well-priced base. So I'll be curious, like with draft, to see if it's the same thing where this is just like the new normal, where there's just more people, and you know That means more, you know more volume of deals and we're seeing guys settle faster, or if this is just kind of a one off. Dahl: Yeah. I mean I've I've been like sitting and thinking about it. Like the volume of sales over the past few weeks has been just ridiculous. I mean it's been almost seven, ten days, maybe with over two thousand, two twenty two hundred Bowman prospect auto selling. And that's that's not usual. I mean, back in like Jheremy: So. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: middle of the season we were seeing like fifteen, sixteen hundred being being the most, maybe even Jheremy: you you Dahl: Getting up to 18 on a Sunday, but it's been pretty interesting to see how how how the market's been moving this past few weeks since the Bowman release or Bowman Crumb release, sorry. I think like it's one thing to keep in mind is like the more money that Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: goes into this this market and into this hobby, the more people have to protect their their financial interests. And it's going to change how how markets move after releases. So what what Jaba: For sure. Dahl: happen what has happened historically isn't always accurate for what what happens in the future. I think that's important to keep in mind. Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: Yeah, I think that's a great point. I think that's why, you know, all three of us were kinda so fascinated by this. Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: Because it is like a real self-sustaining market, but it's also growing so rapidly where like you said, it's like we kinda have things that we assume are normal, but even then, like the normal is changing so fast. It's like right now it's like, okay, is this market settling now just like what it's gonna be now? Or, you know, what? So I I think we're all kinda fascinated with it. I think, you know, you're the best person in the world to talk to on it with how much data you're looking at and you know, you just have compiled. there and yeah I mean I think we're all fascinated to see it. I think anyone listening, I assume the majority of our listeners are subscribers to Prospect Pulse. But again I just want to plug it here and say, you know, it's really what helped me take my big step in, you know, doing this more for fun into like a serious investment. And you know it's just an invaluable tool. You know, you kinda find a la carte tools online. It's like, okay well card ladder's great for you know, comps, and then you know, you have an Excel for tracking your collection, all that. The thing about Prospect Pulse that's great is you know you have it all in one place. It's a centralized location, it has everything you need. It's organized. And you know, I just think anyone listening who has not checked it out yet, I know Dahl's happy to talk to anybody about it. I'm happy to talk about it. I know a lot less, but I can at least point you in the right direction. But yeah I think we'll wrap Up there, and you know, we're just really glad we could get this out. We definitely want to Jheremy: . Jaba: be able to get doll on more here. So that's gonna wrap up this one. We're gonna do another QA after this, I think. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: thank you all for listening, really appreciate you all, and let's go, Mets.