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PGA Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all systems gone clear your lift?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone? Tyler Tamberlain here aka Toteken Tambo back
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: for another edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the ship
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: at Nation YouTube Station, going to be talking all things
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: PGA Championship.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: We've got Major number two. Excited for that.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: My guy Alex Blickel here with me, is always going
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: to break it all down to talk about the core fit.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: We have a huge Scottie conversation. We're going to talk about.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: The chalk build, how things have changed since our conversation
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: on the Mail Show last week. I think that's a
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and especially with some of those value plays down low,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: you'll want to tune in for. And then we'll talk,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: of course about how we can leverage all of this
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: and hopefully find our way to the top for a
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: million dollars. I had a really close call Alex at
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: the Masters until I didn't, but it was still a
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: six figure week that I'm excited about and bring it in.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: If you win one hundred k at the first major,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: you're obviously winning it at the second one too, so
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: got to remember that. That's always the excitement. But how
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: you do my friends? Second Major's here, We're back.
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and we're in We're in Philly, so we're in
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: my you know, my hometown, especially of the golf world.
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: I can't I can't wait for this week. I can't
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: wait to see iron I mink and hopefully hopefully this
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: is like, as you know, as good as Ironman can get.
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: It might be a little bit soft, but it seems
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: like the rough is at least thicker than Philly Crickets
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: rough was last year. So I'm I'm really excited for
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: that aspect of it, just to watch as a fan.
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: And then I also think it's a it's a fun
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: DFS week. I'm curious your thoughts on the pricing. I
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: know we talked about a little bit with Pat, but
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: do you like having this five K range? Do you
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: like the way the pricing is set up this week?
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: I'm okay with it.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I like or love it, but
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: I will say that I do feel like there's people.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: I feel like there's an opportunity and people are gonna
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: make more mistakes because of it.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: They're not used to it, they're not ready for it.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Doesn't mean I'll win because of that or will win
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: because of that, but it is noteworthy that I think
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: a lot of people struggle, and we're going to talk
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: about some of those. We're going to abandon the you know,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: comments from last week and you know, the recaps and everything.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: It's a major week. We want to get fully focused
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: on this one, so stay tuned for that. But I
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: will say I do think there's some thoughts, like little
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: tidbits of information you'll hear people say, and I'm like, man,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: that could lead them to a mistake this week, and
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: that could be good for us keeping an eye on
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: our stuff reviewing lineups before we press enter. You're playing
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: from the single entry perspective, but really think this pricing
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: can help work to your advantage. It doesn't mean it
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: will work, but as long as you feel good about
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: the process going in.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: What are your first thoughts on it?
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there are pros and cons to it.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: I think the first con that I see to it
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: is that it's really hard for anybody to build a
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: bad lineup this week, where like man, it's just so
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: whether you want to build Scotty lineups or not, it's
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: so easy to build line where all six players are
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: really good golfers. So that aspect of it, I think
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: takes the edge away a little bit where it's it's
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: one of those weeks where like it's gonna be really
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: hard to outbuild people. You're you're actually gonna have to
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: outpick people, and that's the harder part of DFS. I
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: think you and I both very much agree on that,
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: especially like in NFLDFS, it's one of the things we
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: stress all the times, like you can just outbuild the competition,
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: You're gonna do really well without even trying to outpick
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: the competition. It's a little bit hard to do that
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: typically in PGADFS, but this week I think that's especially true.
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: And then.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: The flip side of that though, is I do think
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: it's going to be a lot harder for the industry
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: to get ownership right this week. And so you know,
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: given how much time and energy I put into ownership,
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: I do think this is one of those weeks where
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: I can get a pretty strong ownership advantage just because
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: I think they're gonna be guys that the field is
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: surprised at how low owned they are. They're gonna be
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: surprised that certain guys get to like twenty five or thirty.
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: They're gonna, you know, someone in this field is gonna
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: get to thirty percent owning, The field's gonna be like,
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: how the hell did this guy get there? And hopefully
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: I can at least somewhat see that sort of thing coming.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: And so I think that's where I'm really concentrated on
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: this week from an advantage standpoint, is just where's the
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: field going to be wrong ownership wise? And that's not
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: a terrible place to be, but it's not quite as
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: strong of an edge as I think we often get
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: when it's just like man for some reason, the field
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: is completely ignoring this entire eight K range.
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: And they're all really good players.
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: So that's a little bit more advantageous than this, but
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: this is still solid.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: I got more on this later.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: You bring us some really good points there, and I
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: think one of the main ones is I actually especially
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: for yourself, and I know it's why you called it
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: an advantage with someone who works strongly on the ownership
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: and understands it and combinatorial things. I think that you
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: mentioned that we will talk about that's a huge advantage, yes,
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: but I actually don't think you'll do a bad job
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  Speaker 2: with it. But I will say I don't care who
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: is good at it. Or how good they are, and
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: I'm worried about it even for our own side at
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Shippa Nation, et cetera. Is there's opportunity for big mistakes
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: to be made this week in the sense of, like
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: you thought it was going this way, it goes this way.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: It changes the dynamic completely. So we'll talk more on
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: that when we get to how to leverage the chalk build.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Before we get into the.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Course the conversation around there, I want to bring up
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: I like this one for retail ripper says, if you
• 5:05
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• 5:08
  Speaker 3: It helps them. I really like the follow up though,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: tremendously bigly.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: It helps.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: So yeah, do us a favor.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: If you're watching as live as you are right now,
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: you just if you're even on mobile, you just click
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: the X on the chat for two seconds, click the
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: thumbs up, bring it back. It does help us tremendously bigly.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: And I got to bring this up, Alex. I just
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: let everybody know. It is our third birthday at ship
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: it Nation this Friday, and you know I'm always working
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: on those one liners.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: So the ship it Nation celebration.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: From marketing perspective, we're turning three join for free if
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: you go to the site. No code required. You just
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: go to ship nation dot com. Very easy to do.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: When you get on the page, it's right at the top.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: You click that banner, it will take you in. It's
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• 5:48
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• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Try it out though, but you can get right in
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: the discord. You can get access to everything we've got
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: to offer. And there is another additional add on. Someone's
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: looking for a breakdown in the chat.
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: We're not gonna do it. I'll do a quick version of.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: It now, but with the Stone two point zero where
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: you guys saw us go fully you know optional too.
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: You can find just the pivots.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: You can have this last week's data, by the way,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: but just noting you can have everything you need in
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: one place. We did add an official lineup handbuilder, so
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: I know people like messing around with this, and on
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: future shows, maybe we bring it in live, just as
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: we'll have more accurate numbers and the up to date
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: data and all that. I'm bringing a beta thing and
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: it's not even live for our members yet. But it's
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: a free week. You get to try this out. It
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: will have everything you need on there where you could
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: set it up. So if I clear the lineup, for example, here,
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: turn off the lock first, clear it. You can bring
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: in and it's a true handbuilder. But you can start
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: to see like, okay, if I go, Tommy, this is
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: last week again sam Burn's Woodland, you'll have just like
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: a standard site would have on an optimized So even
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: if you don't have a Saber sam an optimizer package
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: something like that, you can clear the lineup, you can
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: optimize it and see what the highest projected lineup is,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: what the ownership on each player is, how it all
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: shakes out, the cap used, et cetera. So no full
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: preview here today. Guys want to get right to the content,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: and like I said, stick around. There's gonna be more
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: that we go through. But I do think that this
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: is just another key addle over at chip atnation dot com.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: And if you saw it when I had it there
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: on screen, that is under the stone two point oh again,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: just go there, click free, get in.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: You can join the discord right away.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: You'll get two point oh all the other stuff we
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: offer the showdown content, but it's all access. You'll get
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: the NBA Playoffs, you'll get the MMA slate this weekend.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: You'll get the NHL Playoffs, you get MLB Daily, all
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: that stuff. So you can check us out on ship
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: atnation dot com. All right, Alex, that's the promo. Bring
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: it back to the hometown here. Speaking of hometown, you
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: talked about it. By the way, I'm trying to go
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: to the whole show without having to say the name
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: of the course. I can never say it right. So
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you busted it out one time already. But
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: talk to us about this course. We'll get to the
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: DFS stuff, we'll get to the pricing, how it all
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: shapes out together.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: But first off, people want to know whether course the length.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: Rory's comments today outside of his blister on his toe
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: and quitting after three and Colin morricows back, he's talking
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: about but the course, Rory said, there's like no strategy here,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: just bomb it out there and see how it goes.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: But talk to us about this course. You're from the area,
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: so let us know. Yeah.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: I actually don't think that Rory's correct in his assessment
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: of the course. And it's interesting because he made very
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: similar comments almost a year ago to the day about
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia Cricket Club and he ended up finishing I think
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: it was seventh, but like he was never in contention,
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: and guys who played the course a little bit differently
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: than he did had more success.
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: And so I do think he's a little bit wrong
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: in that regard.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: And it's interesting because like half of what he said
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: when he talked about the greens and he talked about
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: how the greens are the test of this golf course,
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: he was one hundred percent correct. It's just he he
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: makes a different conclusion about how to get there and
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: how to actually strategize around the greens than I would.
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: And then I think most players are kind of making
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: which is the key to understand about this golf course
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: is that the greens are I wouldn't call them like
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: huge by any means, but they play significantly smaller than
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: their actual areas because they've got spines running all throughout
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: the greens and it's it's kind.
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: Of a signature of Donald Ross.
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: But even he has said when I go back to
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: you know, when I go back to a Ronoman guy,
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: I realized, like this is my crown jewel. This is
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: the ultimate Donald Ross golf course. And it's largely because
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: of these green complexes. And so what with these spines
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: end up doing is they create very segmented greens. And
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: so when you're hitting towards a pin, you know, ordinarily,
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: if you hit a shot to fifteen feet, you hit
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: it to fifteen feet. If you hit it to twelve feet,
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: you hit it to twelve feet, If you hit it
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: to twenty five feet, you hit it to twenty five feet.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: But on these greens, it could be the case that, like,
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: if you hit it to fifteen feet, you get into
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: the correct segment and it funnels to the hole and
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: it's a ten foot putt. If you hit it to
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: eighteen feet, you're on the wrong side of the spine
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: and rolls out to twenty five thirty feet, And now
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: even though you're somewhat close to the flag, your putt
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: goes way up a hill, way down a hill, breaking
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: hard to the right, and you just have absolutely no
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: chance at actually making that. And suddenly, even though you're
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: twenty five feet from the hole, it's a tough two putt.
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: So you have to be like super super precise coming
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: into these greens to get scoring opportunities. When you miss
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: these greens, you have the potential to miss in areas
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: where it's going to be impossible to get the ball
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: close on your chip shot, or you can miss in
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: a similar area. And it's a really straightforward up and down.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: And so all of this is to say, like I
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: think there's gonna be a massive emphasis on an approach
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: play this week, a de emphasis on around the green play,
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: an emphasis on accuracy off the tea not distance, which
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: is where I really agree with disagree with Rory. And
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: the cool thing is I kind of came to that
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: conclusion number one, just from knowing the course and from
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: playing the course like twenty times on the sims of
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: the last few months. It's like the only course I've
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: played on Sims anytime I've been on them, just to
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: get a sense for this week, because I'm so damn
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: excited for this week. But so I came to this
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: conclusion about like how I expect the course to play,
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: and then I thought, Okay, well let me test what
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: the course fit model says for like all Donald Ross
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: courses on the PGA Tour, And it's exactly that you
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: see a spike in accuracy, you see a big spike
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: in approach play and you see a massive decline in
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: the predictive value of around the green play and so
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: I think Aronomank is going to be the typical Donald
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: Ross course, a little bit on steroids. And that gets
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: to exactly what I just talked about.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: And you got me fired up, man, like just talking
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: about the crown jewel of his stuff and everything he
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: puts together, like everyone always thinks the Again, I've been
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: part of this as well, so it's like everybody, I
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: would definitely fall in this out like the PGA Championship,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: the worst major, no juice whatever. I get it that
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: you're not going to compare to the Masters, the US Open.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: I love the US Open, by the way, and I'm Canadian,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: so that tells everything you need to know the Open,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: the cool part of like the courses and getting to
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: stay up late and you know, watch it through the night.
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: Have all these different facts.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's always a reason that the PGA Championship comes
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: in last, but maybe the GAP's just not as much
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: as it usually is this year when you get a
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: course this exciting, the full field, everything that's going on
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: in the golf world would live in PGA and the
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: interviews of like Rom can't even answer the questions because.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: Like that's for me to know.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: It's like, okay, buddy, we get it, like things like that,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: but it just does make it that much better. Bryson
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: being in the investment meetings, he's saying going forward, like
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: are you gonna buy live with your YouTube money? Like
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: who knows what's gonna happen. But just the length did
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: come up, so that's why you know you hit on
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: a lot there. But was there anything to this because
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Rinn said he had to run. But longtime member over
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: at Triper Nation, always supporting and we appreciate him, says,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: My question is what makes this course long? There are
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: five out of twelve power fours over four or fifty
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: five yards, which doesn't even seem very long. Is it
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: fully a misconception? It's just like the length is the length?
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: Or is it like something else to this that you
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: want to add on.
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: I would say that it isn't long. It's it's not
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: a long golf course. It's it's gonna be a lot
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: like Philly cricket, where so, like you know, I think
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: I played the Philadelphia Open at this course probably ten
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: eleven years ago something like that, and and I actually
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: remember when I played it, you know, I was forty
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: pounds later and I hit the ball forty yards shorter
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: than I do now, And I remember thinking, like walking
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: around the golf course, like, man, this is a long,
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: difficult course. But I'm sure that if I went back
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: and played it today that I wouldn't feel that way.
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: And it's it's also similar to cricket in the sense that,
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: like you, if you play the Pennsylvania Open, there a
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: quarter of the field can take the bunkers out of
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: play and a lot of the t shuts. Same thing here,
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: except it's a quarter of the field can't when you
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: get to a PGA Torven, when you get to the
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: PGA Championship. And so it's not that the long guys
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: have an advantage. It's that the shortest of the short
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: guys might have a disadvantage because of the length. But
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: you know, and I think Michael Kim put a tweet
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: out this morning where he said, like the carry number
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: you need is to eighty five. The vast majority of
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: tour players, especially the ones that we're considering actually playing,
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: have too eighty five very easily in their bag. Russell
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: Henley might be like the only really really good player
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: who consistently can't carry his ball to eighty five. And
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: so I don't think the distance of the course. I
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: don't think the length of the tee is going to
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: be a huge factor. The only way that it would
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: is if it gets really soft, really cold, really windy,
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: and some of the key holes with the key carries
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: are into the wind.
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: But it doesn't look like we're gonna get quite that.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: Do you have anything else to add on weather? Since
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: we're on that topic, I'll bring this down just to Claire.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, that was a perfect segue. I was gonna
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: ask that next, and you already kind of said, do
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: you see anything with weather that concerns even if we
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: don't bring it up right now or anything, Is there
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: anything from that perspective that you're thinking of.
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's it's something where like at the moment
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: I would say it's just something we need to monitor,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: there's there's not there's nothing like overly obvious that we
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: need to talk through.
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: One thing.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: I do notice, like as I look through the forecasts,
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: there was about a week ago when I looked at
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: the like the initial forecasts, and up through the last
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: few days, it did look like there was going to
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: be a pretty considerable amount of rain Wednesday night into
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: Thursday morning, which could really soften the course. Right now
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: I'm seeing a lot lot less to what was initially forecasted.
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: That would be awesome if that actually comes to fruition,
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: because it means the course we'll play a lot firmer.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: The other thing, if you recall from Philly cricket last year,
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: is the that it played significantly harder than the other days.
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: Day one was kind of its own thing where there
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: was no wind whatsoever, it was warm. They put all
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: of the pins, like literally fifteen of the eighteen pins
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: and the easiest location possible on the greens.
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: I don't know what they were thinking with that, and
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: so they played really easy.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: But then there was one day where it played particularly
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: hard and it was a lot cooler. There was some rain,
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: but it was the coolness the north wind. And it
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: looks like we're getting that. So when guys are teeing
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: off early Thursday morning, it's going to be low fifties.
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: Doesn't get higher than sixty four. On Thursday Friday, guys
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: are going to tee off in the upper forties. Doesn't
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: get higher than sixty seven in the afternoon. There's going
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: to be a lot of wind on Friday, so yeah,
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: I think at least Thursday Friday we could see some
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: pretty difficult conditions. And then it does warm up and
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: the wind looks like it's going to die down on Saturday,
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: and then.
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: It'll be very very warm Sunday.
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: But hopefully by that time the course is like really firm,
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: and now the heat is actually making it play even
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: firmer and tougher. So as of right now, the forecast
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: looks as good as it has in the last couple
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: of weeks in terms of making around them in a
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: really good test.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think a couple key points to outside
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: of the weather, but just some of those factors that
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: you mentioned that lead to these major weeks. And when
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: people get so confused about like you mentioned like the
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Russell Henley thing, it's like, yeah, but the guys used
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: to coming in from these longer iron shots. It's one
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: of his specialties. Oh and then it gets firm. Yeah,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: he's often playing. He's been around for many years when
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: courses get firm, and that's why you see guys like
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: him and Hideki and Lowry and Sung Jay's and those
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: guys in the world that like, yeah, they over the weekend,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: they just find their way up the board and they're like, oh,
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: here comes Harris English again. That guy, how does he
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: still do this? Here's Brian Harmon. It's like it's literally
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: what they've done their whole life. It's their professional like
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: everyone's professional. But I'm saying when people get so shocked
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: by that, it's.
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: Like, well, I thought it was gonna be bombers. I
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: thought it was gonna be this.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: It's like this a lot of these guys can still
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: they're bombers to you, buddy in most cases. Like that's
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: first of all, and it's like the draw like a
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: three hundred yard player and like a three thirty, Like yeah,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: there's a huge difference, but three hundred still plays and
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: two eighty five is all you need to say from carry.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: It's like these guys are still gonna be in the mix.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: They might be forty. Look look at the the year.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: I was talking about me with my dad about this
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: the other day about like remember Bryson versus Lee Westwood
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: at API with the big Bryson thing and boom, It's like, yeah,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: he was what was the eighty yards?
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: I had a Lee Westwood.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: How many poles did that take before Bryson could finally
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: finish it. It's like lead kept up just fine. Yeah,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: I'll be fifty sixty eighty yards back whatever, but I'm
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: very comfortable in this spot. And then I'll play the
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: rest of the hole. And you got to do your
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: job still too, and if you don't, and it was
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: all but it's easier for him. Not always. They're not
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: always the best iron players if they're the longest player
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: off the tee, So different skills required for.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: Different things, anything else you want to add on that.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: If not, we can keep it moving.
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: Oh yeah, So let's think about Henley for a second.
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: Like one of the holes where he's gonna have a
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: disadvantage off the tee is the back nine par five.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: And when you look at the back nine par five,
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: you'll see why there's a there's a fairway bunker left
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: side of the fairway.
• 17:51
  Speaker 5: It's a slight dog leg left.
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: The longer and even the average distance players in the
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: field are gonna take it over that bunker. They're gonna
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: cut that corner little bit and they're gonna have you know,
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: two hundred to two hundred and forty yards in or
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: something like that for their second shot into the par five.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: Henley's not gonna be able to take on that bunker.
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: It's he gonna have to play around the bunker to
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: the right side, maybe even leave his drive short of
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: the bunker. But it's not a huge deal for him
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: because that means his second shot is just a lay
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: up inside of one hundred yards where he's one of,
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: if not these single best players on tour from that range.
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: So that he's when he gets to that te box, Yes,
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: he knows that it might be a three shot hole
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: for him. Maybe he thinks he can get there, you know,
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: with a with a three wood whenever everyone else is
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: hitting six id in the green or something like that.
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: But he's still standing on that tee thinking, I'm gonna
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: make a birdie here because I'm gonna put a wedge
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: in my hand from the fairway from eighty yards and
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna get that up and down six times out
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: of ten or something like that. Right, So he's still
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: gonna be scoring on those holes. It's not like that
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: takes him out of the hole and means he has
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: to play for par when everyone else is playing birdie.
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I again I don't. I don't see length
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: being a big variable at all this week. The one
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: thing I'll say about that is PGA championships as a
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: whole have emphasized distance, and that could be something to
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: do with just the setup and the rough. Again, I
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: don't see that happening this week, but if it does happen,
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to be shocked by it. And I
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: know that, like data Golf found a distance to be
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: predictive the last time the Tour was at Aeronomic in
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, my numbers didn't find that, and it's rare
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: that we differ, but that can also happen when you
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: just have like a one year sample size that's not
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: reliable at all. And again I then point to just
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: all Donald ross courses not having that distance signal. So
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty confident in my read of the course this
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: week and that it's going to be accuracy over distance,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: not because you really gain an advantage with accuracy compared
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: to distance, but because if you're gaining with accuracy, you're
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: putting yourself in position to gain with approach play, and
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: that's where the money's going to be made this week.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: I agree that that's where I mean, we're fully aligned
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: on that to start. We'll see how it shapes out
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: and we get to our leverage lane at the end
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: and some of the other stuff. Definitely see that as
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: a potential way, because I'm very curious to see. Now.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you have any other sort of
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: topics you want to hit on. We're definitely gonna have
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: the Scotty conversation. But it kind of bleeds into the conversation.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: And actually there's some questions of the chat I might
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: hit in the second two, but it definitely bleeds into
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: the conversation of the chalk build and I've built it
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: a few different ways, but it always seems to lead
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: back to Scotty, Like there's always a way to get
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: to Scotty.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: And so I do think we end up seeing like
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: thirty to forty.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: I just I'm wondering right off the top, before we
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: have that conversation, meeb hit some of these questions. First,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: just quickly, do you see Scotty thirty to thirty five
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: or do you see Scotty thirty five to forty plus.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: What's more in twenty five dollars million? Maker, Let's use
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: as an example.
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: My numbers say twenty five to thirty. My brain and
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: instinct coming into the.
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: Week says forty plus.
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: So that's gonna be something like I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: be battling throughout the throughout the next day and a
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: half trying to figure that out. And the main conversation
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: I want to have with you today about ownhip is
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: not trying to predict Scotty by thinking about how the
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: field feels about Scotty, but thinking trying to predict Scotty's
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: ownership based on how does the field feel about the
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: value plays that we need to come in higher owned
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: and they're currently projected in order to get Scotty from
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: thirty to forty percent. So like right now, we've got
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: him at twenty six and a half percent, thirty one
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: percent in single entries. See what kim is the highest
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: highest owned value play at twenty three percent in single entries,
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: then Nickelaize at twenty percent. What do those guys have
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: to get to? And then what does the secondary chalk
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: have to get to in order for Scotty to actually
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: be forty The way my brain and my gut is
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: kind of telling me he will be.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think you said for single entry. Somebody asked,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: I think you've gotten closer to thirty in something forty four, right, So, yeah.
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't.
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: I haven't done the high Stakes ownership yet. High Stakes
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: ownership will be done tonight after after Baseball and NBA lock.
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: I actually NBA is only one game, so I've after
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: MLB locks, I'll be diving into the ownership update, including
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: the first run of the high Stakes ownership. But I
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: would I would guess that he's higher in high stakes
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: than in single inches. I think what the high stakes
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: players are going to realize more than the casual players
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: is that whereas throughout this season, the main reason to
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: not play Scotty hasn't been that Scotty's been struggling. It's
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: been that Scotty lineups didn't have enough upside in the
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: other five players. But with this pricing, with the five
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: K range, and with guys like Nikolai Hoyguard at sixty
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: five hundred dollars when he belongs in the eight thousands, yeah,
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: it's so much easier to build a lineup with Scotty
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: where all six guys in the lineup are actually good.
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: They can all contend when they play really, really well
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: instead of you know, I've got three guys who's ceiling
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: is a T twenty. So I think that's what high
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: stakes players are going to realize, and that's why I
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: think his high stakes ownership will be higher than single
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: entry and higher than mmy ownership this week.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the whole guard conversation is he's one example, but
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: he'll come up in the sort of leveraging the chalk
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: build conversation. I think that's where people off he's gonna
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: be this, I'm out. It's like, you absolutely do not
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: have to be out on him. You have to be
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: cognizant of what you're building from there. But there's a
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: you know, there's a there's a thing as being like underpriced,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: and if you find a way to use it to
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: your advantage, it could work out in that way.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: So definitely want to bring that up.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Stat brought it up to like data golf is predicting
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: distance to be a predictor this year too. It's it's
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: down on accuracy, up on distance. The Rory comments things
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: like that. To me, it just says, like, again, how
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: it actually plays, we'll find out, but it's it's definitely
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: in the game we play, which is what matters here
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: talk about DFS and how it's moving the field. There
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: is that sort of it's some of it's natural by price,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: but some of it's also by these conversations and these
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: these things people see that it's just naturally going to
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: be baked into the projection people use Data Golf projections.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: That's gonna push it that much more, and then now
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: they will become higher owned because of that.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Whether it's we'll find.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: Out I could be wrong about this or don't, don't
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: completely take my word for it, especially if Data Golf
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: has put something out about this or they have a
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: methodology somewhere on the site. But I believe that they
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: are not actually making a prediction about how it's going
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: to play this year, and that their course fit model
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: where they talk about like what's going to be predictive
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: this year is literally just a measure of what has
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: been predictive in the past, which is typically how my
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: course of model works as well. But because I view
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: this this week as one where we don't have enough data,
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: I'm then putting in my own manual thoughts and kind
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: of changing things and actually making a prediction about how
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: it's going to play. And so I think, like if
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: you if you spoke with some of the data golf guys,
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: I think that's what they would tell you.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: Again, I don't know that for sure.
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: I also know that, like I think they do some
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: comp course stuff, but I think they're even their comp
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: course stuff is based on the predictive weights that they
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: have found. So like, if they find driving distance more
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: predictive than driving accuracy, they're basing the comp courses on
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: other courses where distance is more important than accuracy. So
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: it's not like they're identifying similar golf courses and then
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: blending those weights where some of the similar golf courses
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: might be you know, accuracy over distance. It's like those
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: those are literally what is determining what is a compcourse
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: for them. So again I don't think it's it's them
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: predicting that that's going to be this year. I think
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: they're just telling you what has been the case here.
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah, according to.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: The up here, So just to get your take on
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: it says, the value of each attribute at the time
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: of a tournament is equal to a weighted average.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: Of historical performances.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: For example, the driving distance attribute is a weighted average
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: of past driving distance performances. It is the predictive power
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: of this weighted average on performance that we are estimating.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: Yep, that's what it states.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: For how to interpret the radar plot that they put
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: on their course fit page that you'll see people post
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: out there and be like, Oh, this is exactly what's
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: going to happen.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: And then it's not always the case.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: And again, you know, guys that can drive the ball
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: along typically do well in golf tournaments.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: It's never a bad thing.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Sometimes people get there by accident, sometimes people force it
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: with a skill stack, whatever it might be. But definitely
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: love that point that stat made and something worth talking through.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: All right, let's talk.
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: About this then. Do you want to talk Chock build
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: first or just.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Focus on Scotty and how it tied into that, because
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: they're kind of going to be both the same in
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: my opinion.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: But however you want to start it, I'm good with.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So let's let's talk about the decision at the top.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: I think to start because it is possible to build
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: like Scotty plus Fitzpatrick or something like that, Like you
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: can build that type of lineup, but I think the
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: vast majority of the field is choosing between Scotty and
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: lineups that have two to three of this upper nine
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: K low ten K range. And one of the points
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: that we made like backstage, is it's actually interesting that
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: Rom and Bryson and all of the studs are playing
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: this week because you know, we've had we've had a
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: bunch of weeks lately where either Scotty or Rory hasn't
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: been there, or Morikawa hasn't been there, or Oberg wasn't there,
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: and so we've had like a number of weeks in
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: a row with these really strong signature of enfields where
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: the top has been super compacted, and we've seen twenty
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: five thirty thirty five percent ownership on this like cameo
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: on Xander Schoffley met Fitzpatrick type range, and we're very
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: unlikely to get that this week. But that doesn't mean
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: that people aren't still hammering this range. It's just that
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: there are more guys in this range. Now there's Bryson
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: and there's Ram, and all the guys are here, and
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: you can still go to Rory, who's in this no
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: man's land at twelve four. So I think the the again,
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: the decision is mostly Scotty or multiple of the nine
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: and ten K guys and this is going to be
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: a difficult decision. But the so I think like there
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: are two main factors in terms of how owned does
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: Scotti get, and neither I don't think are related to
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: him specifically and how people feel about him. I think
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: the first is how confident are people that Cam Fitzpatrick,
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: you know that group of players is just going to
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: continue to play lights out and in which case you want
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: those guys because they're winning tournaments and not just finishing
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: second to Scotti. And then second is how does the
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: field feel about the seven K range and this K range?
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: How comfortable are people playing hoyguard at really high ownership?
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: Does anyone want to go into the five K range
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: for Fitzpatrick in a Hall and McCarty or are people
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: more inclined to build the balance lineups? So it's a
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: really interesting conversation and I can't wait to kind of
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: work through the whole thing because I don't have a
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: strong sense yet what people are actually going to land on,
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: and I'm hoping that you know, an hour from now
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: that I have a much better sense of Okay, yeah,
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: I do need a bump Scotty to forty percent or
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: I do need to keep Scotty here at thirty percent,
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: no matter what my gut says.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the biggest part is, you know what you always
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: talk about, and I think stat just put in the chat.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: I was about to say it about like the combinatory alert,
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: like the hole guard thing is just clear right.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: Hoguard is sixty five hundred. He's become the runaway.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: He's the guy that people are used to seeing at
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: eight k. You mentioned yourself probably should be at that
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: this week, Like just look at every angle and that
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: would make sense.
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: There'll be tons of.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: People out there that'll run No, no, I think this
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: guy or I think that I don't care. It's literally
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: the difference in like a small percentage on those guys
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: you're talking about.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: And at the end of the day, it's more about the.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: Concept, not about the play, not about the specific number
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: all that. It's just breaking it down from a overall perspective,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: Hoguard will be more popular than everyone down there. That's
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: what's happened since your Thursday or Friday whatever was. When
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: we jumped on with Mayo, we were more in that
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: upper five k range. But you, by the way, you
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: gotta fill out with six guys. So it's like the
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: minute you say, okay, well I actually think it's gonna
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: be I'd be shocked. I think Harry Hall or who's
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: the guy down there, like Alexispatrick I saw was brought
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: up today. Okay, let's say he gets to seven. That
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: very well could happen. Sure, But like you can easily
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: play Fitzpatrick and Hoguard together. So that's the next piece
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: of the conversation. But it's no secret that like Hoguard
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: with Scheffler should be popular. And then if you're going
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: to the Hoguard version that doesn't have Scottie, it's very
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: easy to figure out that the cam Young's and the
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: Oberg's and the Zen like whoever else, you go to
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick rom who people like to play at Major's, and
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: you'll feel good about or whatever like that. That's an example,
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: that's the alternate version of it. But Hoguard is in
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: both of them, and Hoguard is gonna be a part
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: of the conversation that anchors the Scotty conversation because to
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: your point, there is like a chalk version right now
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: of the Scotti lineup that is random. But just to
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: give an example, something that looks like Scotty Keegan, Ricky
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: Hoguard and then a couple six K guys. Whether it's like,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: you know, if you're like Yella who I mean, by
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the way, Yellen never gets ownership until he does, and
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: then you're like, holy shit, this guy like doubled. But
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: it's like there's things like that, there's versions like that
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: that will pop up. But after that, it's like, what's
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: the other way you can look at this? Obviously that's
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: when we get to sort of leveraging the chalk build.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: But even within the chalk build you mentioned it, what's
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: the Scotty build that also includes the nine K guy
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: or the eight K guy or whatever, because that's really
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: the tricky here in the nine cas Oberg Sure, but
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: then Marikawa talking about his back today Fleetwood who people
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: don't really love, but he might get a little bit
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: of secondary but nobody's gonna want what Hovland, Rose, j T.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Brooks, Sideki Hatt and Reid.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: The ownership can show them all at seven to ten percent,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: but they own the first of all, they won't all
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: be that. You'll have more accurate, like you said, be
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: looking at it from that perspective, I know we will
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: as well, but they're gonna get overlooked for sure, maybe Ludvig.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: But do people go to that do you think that's
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: a possibility, like where obviously it's gonna happen some I'm talking.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: About from the chalk version.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: The Scotty Ludwig Hoguard, which is the best way to
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: start this thing off, only leaves you six point six
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: k and you've got to fill out three spots.
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: Well, So this to me is why it's such a
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: interesting conversation, because if you start Scotti and Nikolai, it's
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: seventy four hundred for the next four spots. The problem
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: that people aren't gonna have with this type of lineup
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: is not finding four guys in this range that they like.
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: It's gonna be very easy to find four guys around
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: seventy four hundred dollars per player that you like. The
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: problem for most people is gonna be that if you
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: start this way and you just play four guys that
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: you like around seventy four hundred dollars, you are not
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: playing Bryce and rom cam Zander fitz Morikawa, Obert Fleetwood. Right,
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: like this huge list of players that the field has
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: loved playing over the last few months and has been
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: given every reason to continue playing them basically in the
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: last few weeks as well. So if people then want
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: to get up higher, let's say they start Scotty and Nikolay,
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: but they they still really want one of those nine
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: ten k guys, and so they want to get Fitzpatrick
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: in there. Well, now you're left with sixty five thirty
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: three per the last three spots, which means you probably
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: have to dip once minimum in the five K range.
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: And so to me, like when we think about Okay,
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: who's whose ownership needs to change the most? If between
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: I'm predicting Scotty at thirty percent, I'm predicting Scotty at
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: forty percent, And to me, it's the guys in this
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: five K range six K range, and then someone in
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: the sevens. But like even Nikolai Hoygard, whether Scotty's thirty
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: or forty percent, Nickolai is going to be very chalky play.
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: He's going to be a popular play if Scotty's forty
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: percent instead of thirty, Like that to me could mean
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: that nor in Yellow Miraje. You you know, the both
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: of those guys are at like six seven percent. Harris
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: English eight percent right now for me, righton nine percent
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: Smallly nine percent. Those guys need to go way up
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: instead of being six seventy nine, they need to be
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: twelve to fifteen eighteen percent something like that. The guys
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: in the five k range Fitzpatrick seven percent, Hall six percent,
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: McCarty seven percent, Nick Taylor five percent, those guys are
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: going to be ten to fifteen if Scotty gets to
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: forty percents like that, to me is where.
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: The big shift comes in.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: And I think it's going to be really important to
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: get that right and whether or not you actually want
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: to play Scotty, whether playing Scotty is the right strategy
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: or not.
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: To me, it's going to be it's gonna be really
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: important to get that right.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: And that that at least excites me from an ownership standpoint,
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: because that's the puzzle that I love solving, right.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: And it excites me as well obviously about I mean,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: my lane is locked in already, So we'll get more
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: on that at the end. But I will say one
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: interesting part of this conversation is like it's a.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: It's a math it's a bit of a it is
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: it's a math problem.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: You're reverse engineering and then you're having to put a
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: little bit of like I know everyone talks about you know,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: I KB, I know better and some people change I
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: know ball, but it's like realistically, it's I know DFS
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: and like in this situation and knowing the sport and
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: tying it together, it can be helpful. The does the
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Rory toe thing to turn off people? I don't think so.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: So that's just my opinion from playing this game the
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: long time, and I'm just I'm not gonna do them all,
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: but I'm gonna do some. Is Bryson gonna be super popular,
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know, But it's also the only chance people
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: get to play them. So I think it's clearly Scotty gap,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Rory gap Bryson. I think Rom and cam Young will
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: definitely get more than Bryson. I mean I can figure
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: that much out. And this is just doing the top quickly.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Xander and Fitzpatrick will actually hold
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: on those numbers. Projections will only do so much with
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: those price tags on those guys ten k and ten
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: to one and a little bit of love, but they're
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: still in that Bryson range, Like how that shakes out whatever,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: But what I do feel very confident in is Ludwig
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: Fleetwood and maybe Brooks or something like, I don't know,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: like like these are just small numb After that, it's
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: like nobody in the eight k range anybody uh speit
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: the Grand Slam conversation maybe like a ten to twelve
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Like these just seem like okay, so nobody wants those
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: guys for the for the exercise.
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: Okay, I feel good about that.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: The seven k range, sure there's you know, like we
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: talked you, maybe a little spawn, a little sea woo
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: min Wu's.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: I think there's gonna be a lot of sea woo
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: at seventy nine. I agree for sure that's a blatant
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: miss price. I also, I will push back a little
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: bit of top I think both Rory and Bryston are
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: gonna be lower owned than all of rom cam Xander fits.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: The Rory conversation is separate then, because I want to
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: I want a table that for a seconds good. We
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: have a bit of a debate. So let's go back
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: to that mint though that I was getting to. And
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: you're right on the seawoop part, and I even see
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: like Keegan and whatever, and we know Hoguard, but where
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking people are confusing it, Like seeing some of
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: this stuff is like a lot of ownership will just
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: get thrown like four percent here and five percent there
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: and six percent there, and it's like, man, those could
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: all be like two to three percenters in some cases.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: So what you actually part of your exercise should be.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: And it's not for us to tell you. We're giving
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: you our concepts and thoughts and you can go put
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: your own spin on it. But like, how much do
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: you really like got her up and Henley and Lowry
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: and Bobby Mack and Griffin and the things that you'd
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: be leaving off, Like you got to think about that.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: How much do you really like Hatton read JT. Rose
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: hovelin Kawa fits?
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: How much do you really like those?
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: If you really think there's something there? The Scotti lineups
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: really just can't get to those very easily. So that's
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: where you'd be able to overtake and you could actually
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: still build with the Rasmus or whoever your choice is
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: down low. So I said Rasmus apologies Nikolai, and just
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: going there. As someone said earlier, they're playing Rasmus in
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: and I get that content, Like I get it, but
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: I haven't seen it as like the talent right now, Well,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: again we're talking about anything can happen in a golf week.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: But just from that perspective, now.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Let's go back. I think when the weeks started, I
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: guess I should say it like more, when the content
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: cycle started and the pricing came out. We were one
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: of the first on it with Mayo yourself and me
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: on Friday it was.
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: Or whatever we recorded it.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: I think there was a potential that you know, it
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: was basically setting up where like Rory was going to
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: be really low owned. I thought people would come around
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: on him a little bit more, not because of the
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: fifteen hundred dollars savings, but more just because of coming
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: into the week. I guess the reason I said table
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: that we might debate it a little is just because
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: now with the tow and quitting the practice round and
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: how easy it is to get to Scotty and how
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: many people are excited about all these plays down low
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: to make Scotty work.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Is that where you're.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: Thinking it is it's like people are either going to
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: drop to rom Young one of them, mixing them whatever,
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: or just go up to Scotty.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Is that what you're seeing well.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: So put it this way, like, I think building Rory
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: lineups is too similar to building Scotti lineups and too
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: dissimilar from building the more balanced lineups for people to
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: really land there, because it's just like if you start
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: Rory fits, for example, it's sixty nine hundred per player
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: in the remaining four spots, so you're still very limited
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: even though you have two studs. If you start instead,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: you know, Cam Young Fitzpatrick, you'll if for seventy four
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: to fifty per player, now you can find four guys
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: that you really really like. So it's it's so different
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: to build a Rory lineup than a non Rory lineup,
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: and it's kind of similar to build a Scotti lineup
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: and a Rory lineup, where again I just I see
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: him slipping through the cracks. And then I also think
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: that Bryson being significantly more expensive than Rom, Cam Shoffley Fitzpatrick,
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: Like why would people not just play the guys who
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: have been playing so incredibly well instead of the guy
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: who missed the cut at the Masters with Drew in
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: Mexico while playing horribly and then kind of got it
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: together again in Virginia. But people aren't even paying that
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: much attention to that. So we just haven't seen it
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: from Bryson the way we have seen it from all
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: these other guys, where you know, sometimes we get to
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: a major championship and it's nice to have Rom and Bryson.
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: People are really excited to play those.
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: Guys because the superstars, the guys you're paying up for,
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: haven't done anything crazy. And so like now you're actually saying, Okay,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: I can get more inequity from these guys. That's not
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: the case right now. Like the ten k range is
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: playing phenomenal golf from the typical PGA Tour players, So
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: I think the field is really gonna prefer those guys
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: at a discount compared to Bryson.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: So I will say this then, because I agree with
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: all that now that we've talked it through. So I'll
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: say this now that you've said that, though, it doesn't
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: that just you know, put the nail on the coffin
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: like it's scotty, because at the end of the day,
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: when you when you knock down Rory that much, you
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: knocked down Bryson that much, I still already have guys
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: like Cam Young and Rom at twenty plus already thinking
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: that if you really are gonna knock it off, those
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: are they is Cam Young.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: I guess my point.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: Would be when you go with those guys, you end
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: up with the lineups of like the all these lower
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: owned eight K and nine K and whatever, like whatever
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: else you want to do. Like even if you put
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: Erasmus in there, it's not really like you could easily
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: find your way back to Scotty.
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: So it's gonna come down to that. So at the
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: end of the day, I.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Start to feel a lot more confident in the fact
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: that Scotty's just going to be really steamed up even
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: further than we thought. Because now that you have that
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Rory take and I agree with it now, it's like
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: that that would make me think even more Scotty just
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: from that perspective.
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: And this is why I think this is such an
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: important conversation, because like, let me tell you where I
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: have everybody right now near the top, and and we
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: can kind of go from there. But so single entry
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: ownership Scotty thirty one, Rory and Bryceon nine, Rom fifteen,
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: Cam eighteen, Shoffleet and Fitzpatrick seventeen, Morikawa ten, Fleetwood ten
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: Over sixteen. We'll just stop there, Okay, we are talking
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: about Scotty potentially being forty instead of thirty one percent,
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: and we already have I already have like this group
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: of phenomenally playing golfers Rom Cam, Xander fitz Oberg not
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: even at twenty percent. So if Scotty gets to forty,
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: like to me, either I'm right about these other guys
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: and they're not getting to twenty percent.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: And the build is pretty clear.
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: You play like two or three of these guys who
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: are in phenomenal form, and then you go pick your
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: favorite seven and eight K guys and you're done. Or
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: those guys also have to get up to twenty twenty
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: five percent in addition to Scotty potentially going up. And
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: now like somebody or some group of players down in
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: the value range that I'm currently projecting between five and
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: ten percent, I need to bring like a bunch of
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: these guys way up. So do you think I'm low
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: on this nine to ten K range. Not necessarily, I
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: think you're high on Xander and Fits.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Okay, because for everything you said, like everything that actually
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: turned out to make perfect sense in my brain of
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: like what you mentioned about Rory and Bryson, it's the
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: same to me on the bottom, and it's like I
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: get it, Like, didn't we just see it. What was
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: last week's delta? What was Fits versus Cam Young last week?
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: Or we had these conversations about like Xander versus Fits
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: and all that. I even, you know, I remember talking
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: about that. It's like, I just don't see how they
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: if they're seventeen, then yeah, I think Scotty does say
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: stay slightly in check and they're like the next tier
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: up to the rom Youngs. But I actually think rom
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: and Young would eat more of their lunch and they
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: would come down a little bit and then some of
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: that would also go back up to Scott go ahead.
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: Well, I think I think the uh the Fitzpatrick points
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: really interesting. I think one of the reasons why he
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: was lower. And I'm getting the actual ownership from this
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: past week. So we had we had Rory thirty nine.
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: This is from the two hundred dollars single entry, which
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: is the contest that I do the single entry ownership
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: trying to project. So Roy was thirty, Cam was twenty nine,
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: Shotley was thirty eight, Fitzpatrick was sixteen. So I see
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: what you're saying there where we just had this instance
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: of Fitzpatrick like being well below these other guys, But
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: I think that was largely because people knew with certainty
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: that Quel Hollow is a bomber's course. Now I think
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: it's a bomber and a distance course, where like you
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: really get the full benefit from being both accurate and
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: long off the tee. But the field was very much
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: in on bombers, which is why Fitzpatrick I think fell
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: below that other group of players who all just hit
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: the crap out of the ball. I don't think the
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: field is in on the bomber narrative anywhere near the
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: same degree this week as they were last week, which
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: is why I think Fitzpatrick can closed that ownership gap
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: with those guys.
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: But I do see your point.
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: But I think even I'm not even so much worried
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: about like whether I'm right about Fitzpatrick. It's more am
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: I right about the average ownership about this group of
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: players that the field really likes?
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: So even if you take.
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: Him out, if if we just had a conversation of
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: what is the average ownership of the three highest owned
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: players between ninety five hundred and ten four hundred dollars,
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: do I need to get that average up over twenty
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: percent or is that you know, highest and average good
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: between fifteen and twenty.
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: The other thing I'll say, like, uh yeah, and again
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know the answer. That's why it's your your expertise,
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: but I'll say, like the part there. The other thing
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: is Ludwig as well. You know, I think if I
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: think you could flip Ludwig and Fits for whatever you
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: have and do that too.
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: I mean I have them almost identical. I've got Obert
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: get sixteen percent. Last week he was twenty four percent,
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: so he didn't get as much of the bomber credit
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: as the other guys. But you know, he played pretty
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: well again, especially on Sunday. So because I do, I
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: very much agree. I think he's going to be in
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: that collection of popular you know, upper nine K low
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: ten K guys.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: And so my whole point would be and again you know,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: you better to tie this together from the ownership and
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the math perspective, but just from my you know, putting
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: two cents onto this is like when you it's more
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: to me. It wasn't even about the fits point as
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: much as like, in my eyes, it's Scotty and then
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: it's rom Young Xander and then Ludwig full stop like
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: nine kN up, Like that's the four guys that absorb
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: the ownership. Is fits in the next man up spot
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: most likely? And is Bryson and Rory and some guys
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: in there? Yes at something, but I just think there's
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: just too much likelihood. And you sold me on the
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: first part of like the Rory Bryson combo that that
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: to me just goes to Scotty or it goes to
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: Rom and Young and then they blow up. But the
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: problem is, and this is why people don't always do
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: the full thing just and I know you're not just
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: stopping at the top, but just noting it. This is
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: why it's important when you're figuring out the chalk build
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: is like it's also what's the next levels? If you
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: go to a Cam Young, I don't know what, Let's
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: use just Rom Young.
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna do this quickly. Let's do Rom Young.
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: And then as you do.
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: That, I can I can interject with this interesting note.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: I was just kind of fidgeting with the with the
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: manual adjust that I have kind of set up in
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: my ownership sheet. If I were to give five percentage
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: points of extra ownership to rom Cam, Xander Fits and Oberg.
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: So five percentage points to those five players, it would
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: be less impactful to the overall projected salary ound than
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: giving an additional ten percent to Scotty.
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: That's the power of Scotty's price tag.
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: And if I if I end up not putting Scotty
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: around forty percent, that's why it's because I'm saying, people
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: are just gonna conclude I'd rather play two or even
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: three of these upper nine K low ten K guys
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: that are that like this is this is as much wine.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: So when we thought back to like, let's compare Scotty
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: right now to last year. To me, the biggest difference
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: between whether or not to play Scotty isn't about Scotty's
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: change in win equity. It's about the change in win
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: equity of these cheaper guys. Where last year I was like,
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: if you weren't playing Scotty, you were you were making
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: a very clear, you're an obvious sacrifice that you were
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: going to have a lot less overall combined win equity
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: in your lineup. And that's not quite the case this
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: year because all of these guys are winning golf tournaments
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: at an elevated rate and continuously putting themselves in contention.
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: So again, like if if instead of going Scottie from
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: thirty one percent to forty percent, we saw Rom go
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: to twenty, Cam go to twenty three, Xander go to
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: twenty two, I Fitzpatrick go to twenty one, and over
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: go to twenty that wouldn't surprise me at all. And
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: we just saw like a huge kind of congregation around
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: that ten K price range.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that that's.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: That's you know, another valid point. But I'm just gonna
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: go back here for two seconds to something else. The
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: point I was gonna tell you is if you go
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: look at the Rom Young Hoguard lineup, it's like the
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: chalk nuts, Like it's like what you would expect people
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: to build. What do you think lands on that it's
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Ricky Fowler, Seewou Kim and Minwu Lee boom.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Like that's it. That is the non chalk lineup
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: of the other side.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Like people can say whatever they want them and that's why,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: like the five K guys when we get there in
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: a bit of like having those conversations, like you can
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: say whatever you want, like but a six percent or
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: a seven percent Alex Fitzpatrick. Sure, to the ten guys
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: around him, you could say one's better than the other
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: and like that's crazy, et cetera, et cetera. But ninety
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: three percent aren't playing him, and you can do a
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: ton of different thing. You can leave money on the table,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: you can use him in non Scotti's, you can use
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: him to go away from this build completely.
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: You can use him in a.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: Four nine K guys and get different. Like, there's so
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: many ways that you can get different with any of
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: these low priced guys. That's why this Scotty conversation was
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: such a big one off the top, because now what
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: is the I mean, you're usually gonna figure these out.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: Let's just use Ram and Young. We'll leave Hogard, Fowler,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: se Wou, and we'll leave min Wu for the moment
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: that leaves us six point eight K with Scotty. Do
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: you think it's more likely that somebody goes down and
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: somebody goes up? Like, who am I missing here? Who's
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: the popular eight K guy? If anybody?
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: That's hilarious because I'm I'm literally doing this as you're speaking,
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: and then you ask that exact question. So it's it's
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: cool to see how similarly we think about lineup's the
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: the answer I was kind of coming to was instead
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: of Minmu Lee, like you go down to either Keegan
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: or Kidiyama and then that leaves you sixty nine for
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: Norrin or Yellow Miraju, and I think that's gonna be
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: the build. So it's basically like it's basically Scotty and Norrin,
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: Yellow Miraju, Thigala, Mitchell one of those guys versus rom
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: Cam or you could go like Cam and Fitzpatrick becomes
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: you know, Scotty and now you get you know, another
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: low seven K guy. Now, so Scotty and Harris English
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: versus Cam Young and Fitzpatrick. I don't know what the
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: field prefers between those two, but like that's that's the
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: question that so many, so many people are gonna be
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: asking when they built their lineups.
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: One hundred percent.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: And I will say this too in that previous version, Yes,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: the Minmu could have been Keegan. I do believe, Like
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: somebody said it earlier, I thought it was funny, you know,
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: knowing the show well, and you gotta give a shoutut
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: to my guy. Jenny b got the five K shipper
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: last week. Loved to see that congrats to you, but
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: it was Vince here said my leverage lane fade and
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: sufferable Keegan Bradley. You can't just claim half the US
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: as your hometown. And obviously we talk about that. You
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: see it out there a lot, but just noting it.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: If he's in that lineup, he fits and leaves two
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: unter bucks on the table, and you could change That's
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: my point. You're not, I mean change your single guy.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: Oh I got a guy that's five percent instead. Sure
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: you pulled something, you know, I always people like fun
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: of my my lever conversation. You pulled a lever there,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: but did you really pull a big enough one for
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: something that's you know, got even the two hundred dollars
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: single entry this week as a thousand plus people. So
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: just quickly thinking about it from that perspective. Going back
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: for a second, there's another version. So it still keeps
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: Scottie Hoguard Fowler and see Wu.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: But instead of what did I have before?
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: In there?
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: It was uh Kegan Oran.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: You said, you said the norder yellow version, that's the
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: norm yellow with Keegan that that one's gonna be popular.
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: But what did I have before? It was min Wu.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: And and so then didn't have anybody. We didn't have anybody,
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: and that's what I said to what I did as
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: I went down and put last week's winner in there,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: who we made a lot of jokes last week, but
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: the last name and rating out well and rating out
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: and all that, and then goes on to win the tournament.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: So that was lovely.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: But if you put him in, it gets you the
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: Bible Bros. You get Sam Burns, who, by the way,
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: looks like somebody in the eight K if they get
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: any love it might be him again, might be ten percent,
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: might be nine percent, eight whatever, But in ak it.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: Kind of looks like the guy there, So just noting it.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: There's a couple two v twos, but it's pretty clear
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: that that you know, three to four Scotty Hoguard Sea
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: wou very common, and then can't one of cam Jung
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: or rom or both with Hoguard Sea wou also very common.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if there's any more to add
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: on the chalk build or this conversation, but anything else
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: you got on this. If not, we got to start
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: talking about how to handle that, because that's the biggest
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: question this week is what do you do with that information.
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the other option that people would have
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: there is is to incorporate the five K range and
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: you go like Speth McCarty, So I think we would.
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: I think we'll see a lot of variations to the
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: point where, like you know, I talked about Nick Taylor
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: earlier and Fitzpatrick and Harry Hall, where like all of
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: those guys would end up getting some more ownership, probably
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: like three to five percentage points minimum more ownership than
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: expected if Scotty ends up forty percent instead of the
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: thirty one percent. So that's a really interesting thing to
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: kind of continue to talk through.
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: But as far as where we.
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: Go from there, like, I think the the first thing
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: to notice is, like we just talked about two v
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: two's where it was literally Scotty and somebody else first
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: rom and Cam Young or Cam Young and Fitzpatrick. So
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: I think the very first thing to notice when you're
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: building lineups is if you're building a balanced lineup, just
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: steer clear of the two v two type lineups and
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: go to like a minimum of three v three or
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: a four v four. So you know, one way to
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: do that is to go really balanced and instead of
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: you know, playing three or four guys under eight thousand dollars,
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: you end up with nobody under or one guy under
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: eight thousand dollars or something like that. So like that's
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: I think a very clear and obvious way to pivot
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: off the chalk bill because you're just you're getting so
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: many different spots from all of the chalk variations where
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: I think, to me, like the number one thing that
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: I don't want to do, and this is especially true,
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: like you know, I'm I'm still trying to make I'm
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: still trying to earn a ticket into the Mega. If
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: I have one lineup in the Megamilli and I'm going
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: up against all these people who have ten lineups, twenty lineups,
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: fifty lineps, however many the maxes this week. The last
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: thing I want to do is put myself in a
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: position where my lineup is going up against you know, I,
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: let's say I have a four v four equal, so
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: four guys are the same as a bunch of other lineups,
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: and I'm trying to win with that final TV two,
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: but I'm playing someone who has ten different combinations of
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: that final TWOV two versus my one.
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: I don't want it at all.
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: I want as many guys in my lineup to be
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: unique versus other lineups so that I don't run into
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: that type of an issue. And I think that's the
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: number one way to do is just get out of
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: the lineup builds that have to hammer that like seven
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: six K range and and you know the pivot off
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: of that is one five K and one eight K
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: instead of a six and a seven or two low
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: sevens that sort of thing. Because it's just so hard
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: to win those two v twos. I'd much rather take
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: my chances with a four v four where all my
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: four are actually good players. Yeah.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna pause on that for a second too, because
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: I think something very important and just like I think
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: about all the time, is like that's where people get confused,
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: because I know people run into this and do you
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: have his mastermind over a Chipper Nation discord.
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: It's always sort of something to come up.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: We'll say, well, you just said that, Alex, but then
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: I saw your lineup in the Mega on the weekend
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: and you had Hogard in there at sixty five hundred,
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: and they just stop there like they didn't recognize the
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: to the lineup, and they take it as like you
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: don't want to be in this combo. But because what
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: you said is per when there's that four be four
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: and you're like, okay, Camyong and Ram or Scotty and
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: this guy someone has that, And then so they might
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: even have it in their own portfolio duplicate, like covered
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: that way or with a three v three that's just
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: as close the Keegan versus min Wu. But then also
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: somebody else over here has the other version of it,
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: and somebody else over here has the other. Like you've
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: just packed yourself in so many different ways. But people
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: take it as like the one play. Yeah, but then
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: if you're saying to steer clear of that, then that
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: just means I don't want to play hoguard. It's like
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: not at all what you said, And it's like now
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: you'd be looking at okay, how can I use someone
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: who's popular, But in a completely different way, And that's
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: where people confuse the situation, Like these good undervalued plays
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: on paper going in may may not work out, but
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: if they do when they're needed, you're gonna still have
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: to think about those factors, not just Okay, one play
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: got there for me, it's the whole process. It's the how,
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: not the who, it's everything that we talk about on
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: this very Oh so I don't if you want to
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: elaborate on that further, but I think that's the key
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: to remember. You had a couple weeks I remember where
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: it was like, yeah, see who's popular, but he's gonna
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: be the fourth guy in to every lineup or the
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: third guy in or fourth guy, fifth guy.
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna use him as my last guy in.
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's that's what I did at the Masters.
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: Yes, what I did the Masters, I had I had
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: Henley and and Sea Wu as my only seven K
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: players and that was that was it. Every everyone else
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: was in the eight kor above and so so yeah,
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: I was like that that lineup has multiple pass to succeed.
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: And this is what I like about it. Where someone,
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: you know, in my eight k's let's say, uh, I
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: can't man, I can't remember what the rest of the
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: lineup was. But let's say two of my eight K
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: guys end up like in the top three and one
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: of them wins. That's an easy pass to success because
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: now my highest scoring players are beating the highest scoring
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: players in all the expensive guy lineups because they literally won.
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: No one can score more than that but there's also
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: the potential runout where let's say, you know, my my
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: best finisher is fourth place, but then I have all
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: six guys in the top twenty, are all six in
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: the top thirty, and the fast majority of let's say
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: Scotty lineups if Scotty goes on to win, are a
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: four of six or three of six. Maybe there are
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: some five of six and are really low six for
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: six and two of the mad cuts are outside of
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: the top forty, and a lot of them. I can
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: still beat those lineups because my worst player was just
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: so much better than the typical worst player, even the
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: typical second worst player, and a lot of other lineups.
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: So that's that's why I so often gravitate towards these
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: balanced builds. But the other reason is because they are
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: literally unique builds, and it's it's harder to find unique
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: structures when you're going to some kind of studs and
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: duds version.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's also many like the other side of it.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: Because I know we're gonna get to it in a second,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: I want to ask you one more question first. But
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: when Timmy's point comes up, like if we start in
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: the nines, we had this conversation a couple of weeks
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: ago about like the win equity versus the maid cut equity.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: When you're looking if you can't get to that win
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: equity that Scotty has, fine, but there's other things that
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: can bust up. Scotty lineups could end up being like,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: you know, he could be thirty five percent owned, but
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: they're might only be a small percentage of Scotti lineups
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: with six and six because the way the value plays
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: shake out, especially the popular ones, they do horrible and
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: that doesn't work out. And then somebody that's sitting there
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: with the ballant's like, well, kind of in that spot
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: where everybody's got like, you know, everyone's sitting twentieth right now,
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: but I've.
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: Got a six of six.
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: They all got a shot, and then it firms up,
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: and then those are veterans that have played forever and
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: they're climbing their way to the board, and there's only
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: so many of the Scotty lineups that are even climbing
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: with Scotty now because it's like all the other people
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: got left behind, and those six of sixes aren't filled
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: with the nut six of sixes, they're just filled with
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: Scotti and five guys that kind of came through that
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: made the cut, So it doesn't always mean that will
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: get there either.
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: So we'll spend more time on that one in a second.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: But I do want to ask, and I've got a
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: couple other things, but I want to ask you first
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: after that conversation, as we get to sort of leveraging
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: the chalk build Now, did you get any clarity as
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: of now Tuesday afternoon, you know, evening on the Scotty ownership,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: like you know, for me, like I just said, it
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: felt like it became a lot clear that it's gonna
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: be probably a little more than we think. But I'm
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: just curious if it's different for you or what you're
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: thinking is of right now.
• 59:00
  Speaker 5: I got clarity, but in the opposite direction.
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: I didn't get not the opposite direction, but in a
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: different direction where I didn't get clarity on what the
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: field is going to do, but I got clarity on
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: what I want to do, because I think Scotty can
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: only get more popular than what we're projecting. And I
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: got some clarity that I think it's already even at
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: thirty one percent instead of forty percent, I think it's
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: already better to have a more balanced lineup than a
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: Scotti lineup, so a different way of answering it, but
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: it still gets like, Okay, I know that part of
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: my path to leveraging the common build now is going
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: to be doing so through a non Scottie lineup instead
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: of a Scotti line.
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: All right, we just covered both our leverage lanes. Is
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: that is that it?
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: That's the show now that we went.
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: Through that, So I think people would be very upset
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: if the extent of the leverage lane was Fate Scottie Scheffler,
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: because there's a whole lot more buttons you got to
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: press beyond that.
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's always interesting though, because even if that is
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: what it was going to be, and just sort of
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: from that perspective, we always try and bring the to
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: it and not just like it's not a hot take.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: It's like you literally applied math and then potential further
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: math that we're expecting to see that it kind of
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: really doesn't matter that it's just gonna make it even
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: that much more in a situation. And then we applied
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: also like game theory, contest size, and I'll give you
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: some context as we because I'm gonna segue into it
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: now we'll go into sort of you know, leveraging that
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: chalk build or leveraging a Scotti build that's popular. I'm
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: going to actually leverage the opposite one. We spend a
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: lot of time on Scotty. But let's give you a
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: quick example. If you go to the previous bill we
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: were talking about with like Camjong Ram Sea Wou, Fowler Hoguard,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: and wherever that landed min Wo were your Kegan right
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: was where that landed if you keep Cam Young Henley
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: or sorry, if you keep Cam Young, se Wu and
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Hoguard different tournaments, but I'm talking like a thousand or less.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: Just let me give you this quick example.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: It doesn't even matter who I name, but if you
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: played three eight k guys in that that are all
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: sub five percent, I actually think you can get away
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: with that. Even so, it kind of is the thinge
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: because it's not the Scotty full version, it's not the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: Scotty Hoguard versions, it's not the rom Young Hoguard, Sea
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: Wou four v four where you're just swapping a twov
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: two and I'm considering field size by in typically will
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: relate to that, but just noting it. I think that's
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: where some people are like, oh, I thought I might
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: be too chalky. But it's like you're on a completely
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: different different construction with three popular plays, but you're using
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: them in a completely different way. And then also, I'm
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: not just picking the most popular eight K guys that fit.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: I'm noting that.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: I'm saying, like, you could fit three really low owned
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: eight K guys, and that would be an example where
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: that's how you separate from the people that started with
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: the chalk version and the people that did like Alex said,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: and went to the secondary version. We're like, well, as
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: long as I TWOV two, I'm.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: Good, No, you might not be.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: You would truly separate, and you can't have let's say,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: the seven K range bus and only see Wu comes through. Well,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: so many of those lineups are dead now because they've
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: had three two to three seven K guys, one being
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: Sea Wou, but you've only got Sea Wou. And now
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: it was the eight K range that was needed and succeeded,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: and you've already got three of them in your lineup,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: and it's only a small range to start with.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: So it's like those little moves.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: As much as I'm talking about it's all related to
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: the field you're in, the size, the contest, all the
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: different factors that go into it. But just a quick example,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: and I would still maybe go further than that myself
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: because I'm a bit more aggressive. But I'm just noting
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: where people confuse it of like, you know, they think
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: they can't play any chalk or they think you're saying, well,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: if I'm going balanced, just go everybody under ten percent.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: There's tons of different ways that you can play it
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: from there.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: So let's keep it moving.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 5: Let's go real quick, real quick, Tamo.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: For anyone watching live or if you're watching recorded, take
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: note of the time right now. Because of my leverage lane.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: I'm in a reference what Tamo just talked about because
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: I just put in the lineup that he just talked about,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: because there's like there's a three v three kind of
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: example here that fully illustrates the point that I'm gonna
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: make in my leverage line. So just keep keep this
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: time stamp in mind because you might want to kind
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: of go re listen to what Tamo just said when
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: I end up talking about my leverage lane.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, see our three mark. I see it, and then
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: I'll be you know, things will be timestamped and whatnot below.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: We like to do that for everybody if you check
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: it later.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: So what else do you want to when when it
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: comes to leveraging the chalk build, I mean I was
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: gonna bring it up earlier, but I just I'll go
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: back to it now because you kind of convinced me
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: on the Rory factor.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: So it's not just about Rory.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: Specifically, but it's just noting a concept that goes with it.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: So it is you know, results and how they play out,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: and also DFS as a whole. But I think another
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: thing that gets confused is like your point even selling
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: me on the spot, I'm like, okay, actually, yeah, that
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: makes a ton of sense.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: I can see this now.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: That's fine. But ken Rory win this golf tournament, yes,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: and you know this, as does everybody else. And if
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: Rory does, there's a possibility he's needed and likely in
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: most golf turners when you have the winner. We just
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: talked through how Scott he might not still be needed
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: up there because the way the rest of the lineup
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: shakes out and the chalk and the value that gets
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: plugged into that and Rory's could be the same. But
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: my point would be if Rory's needed or he beats
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: Scotty or whatever. And that exists, especially going back to
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: what type of turnerm you're in the five dollars with
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: fifty k up top, the twenty five dollars worth a
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: million of top. Someone is going to have that lineup.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: So like, no matter what you think, and I know
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: Alex is talking fully from it, you know, a single
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: jury perspective and as a whole, but just like from
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: the perspective, especially if you've got a portfolio, I don't
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: think enough people consider that where it's like that's another
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: example of Okay, if I've got Hoguard and si Wu
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: and Scottie, I'm not just gonna drop Scotty to Rory.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: Probably I'm saying you could, I would leave money on
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: the table, be completely different. Everyone else is that that's
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: more of like a NFL showdown thing. Right, You've got
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: Jamar Chasin for the Bengals else he's an obvious one,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: and you say I'm not gonna play him. I'm gonna
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: go to t Higgins and leave thirty five hundred on
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: the table, or I'm gonna go even further than that
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: because i want to be even more well that's a
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: small slate, single game, smaller player pool, et cetera. So
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: you're probably not doing that, but just saying when people
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: are like, yo, Alex made a good point. If you
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: go to Rory, you kind of got the same as
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: the Scotti lineup. That is true, but it's also true
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: that if that version comes through, you probably need that.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: So it's like, you got to think these things through
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: when you're building. That's when your player takes or you're like,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: I've got a ticket to the Mega this week. I've
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: only got one. It's my first time ever playing it.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: I want to go down with my ship no pun
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: Intenta deship it Nation. You can join free right now.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: If you want to go check it out, do my
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: best Mayo impression. There no code required, the banner right
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: on the top. Drop the problem in with it. But
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: if you want to go to I believe in that, Alex.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: You've talked about this a ton man. Play a lineup
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: you want to play, go down with your players and
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: run it. If you think it's Rory weak, don't give
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: a shit about the rest. Play Rory and then figure
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: it out because that's what you've decided. But it doesn't
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: it doesn't mean that both things can't be true, was
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: my point. So people don't do that enough when they're
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: trying to figure it out. Well, someone said, it's not
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: the best lineup to play, but you like this player
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: and you want to build your own lineup, so go ahead.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: The other thing I like about the Rory thought is that, yeah,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: it's only fifteen hundred different than Scotty. But remember the
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: kind of build that we were talking about, like trying
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: to get out of where you're kind of left just
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: choosing multiple players from that you know, mid to high
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: seven K range, upper six K range. Well, one way
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: to get out of that range is to go from
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: like Scottie Fowler and min Wu. And the reason why
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: you might want to get out of that range is
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: because you have to get that Fouler min Wu decision correct,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: because you know there are gonna be so many other
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: lineups that instead of Fowler and min Wu, it's gonna
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: be you know, Spawn and English or Kidiyama and Batilla,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: and someone's gonna have the right combination of those players,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 4: and it might not be you, but you can get
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: out of that range, and out of that you know,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: two v two over and over and over again competition
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: with people by going to Rory and now the final
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: two instead of like so many possibilities where you have
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: to get it right in that upper mid seven k range,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: that just becomes that becomes you know, Burns and Speeth
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: or Henley and see Wu or Henley and McNeely, right,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: someone like that, where you're out of the range where
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: everyone has different TV twos and they're all competing with
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: one another, and now you don't need to be quite
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: as perfect with the two that you actually come up with.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: And I just generally like that style of bild, especially
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: like we talked about, if you're in the Mega, it's
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: less important in the two hundred and seventy seven dollars
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: single entry because you're not playing against other people who
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: have multiple combinations in that range, and so you don't
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: have to be quite as perfect number one because it's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: a smaller field. Number two because everyone only gets one
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: chance instead of multiple shots where they're building around the
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: same core and then just taking you know, like maybe
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: they have four the same in ten different lineups, and
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: those ten lineups all have different TV twos, all from
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: seventy three, eight to seventy seven. They are likely to
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: have the perfect combination you with one bullet or not.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think we did review it a little
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: bit after maybe it was the week after the Players
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: Championship when Giant Squid won the Mega Milly and Brandon
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: Adams had like a bigger portfolio, and we showed how
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: he played. Wasn't it the Players when markow withdrew at
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: forty eight percent owned in the Mega right, and it
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: was like everyone's like, oh, Brandon Adams still won like
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: four hundred thousand dollars or something. It's like, yeah, he
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: had fifty percent of his lineups, he was field matched
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: on his sixteen lineups. He had eight more Cow lineups
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: dead at the bottom.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: It's the other eight.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: But was most interesting to me, And I know people
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: like yourself who actually dig into this stuff and try
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: and learn from this, and you know, you learn from
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: the best and try and apply it to your own stuff.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: It's like, realistically, it was crazy because the more Cow
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: lineups were in such great shape versus the field. If
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: Morikawa didn't WD and even if he had success, where
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: most people are like, oh fish play or like what
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: an idiot who plays that donkey chock at forty eight
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: percent whatever. It's like again, it wasn't who he played,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: it was how he played him and his other lineups.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: He played accordingly within a portfolio to be able to
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: apply that. But Giant Squid only had two lineups and
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: he clearly played them both differently and to win. It
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: was like there was no way. He was not in
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: the four v four. He was not in the three
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: B three. It was like, I'm here or I'm there,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: but I only have two. And then with his only two,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: I say only like it's nothing, but I'm just telling you,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: like versus what he could play. He had two.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: One was to play this way. One was to play
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: this way over here. But both had shots to the
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: top and paths needed things to go his way and
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: they did so.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: Shout out to him and another million maaker. I think
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: it's the seventh or eighth or maybe nine. Two 's
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: by now, but one of the best, and that's just
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: a point to be made, is you can learn from
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: what people do in the past. You're not gonna be
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: able to apply the plays, but you are able to
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: apply the concept.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: So that's the key.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the one of the kind of like
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: inspirations for this whole conversation was I mean, I did
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: like a big giant strategy. Note in my discord about
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: this was the round one of the NFL Playoffs. I
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: noticed one of the guys who won the Mega he
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: had like he had a pretty basic core stack with
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: some of the good values, and then like he had
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: I think it was eight different lineups and all eight
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: were identical except for the final two v two.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 5: Maybe it was the final three v three, And he.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: Just had so many combinations, and so his combinations included
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: it was like, you know McCaffrey, which crappy, DeMarcus Robinson
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: and the Niners defense, right, And it's like, if you're
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: building a single entry lineup, you are not landing on
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: that combination as your final three. He he had one
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: Niners combination, but that was the one that won. And
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: so if you had the same core that he did
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: and you had one lineup and he had eight, and
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: your lineup was like your core was perfect, it was optimal,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: you still had a very low chance of winning, because
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: he had a huge chance of winning. And like I
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: from that day on, it was like anytime I'm in
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: a contest where I have one lineup and everyone else
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: is multiple I'm making sure I avoid those final two
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: V two s three threes where I'm up against multiple
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: iterations at the same lineup, and I'm making sure that
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: my lineup as a whole is unique. And that's been super,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: super helpful whenever I've been in that kind of you know, contest.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: And so yeah, if this kind of this kind of
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: conversation really interests you, I think you'll you'll find that
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: strategy not really fascinating and definitely a reason to check
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: out the discord.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you said too, like you know,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: the last part there of like what that sets up.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: Like I wrote this note a long time ago and
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: my my Apple notes or whatever, and sometimes I go
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: back to these and I'm all, people know, I'm like,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: I'm obsessed. I'm always going back and reading things and
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: coming up with these little things or whatever. But it
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: was basically just a quick note to myself to remind
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: myself because one thing that comes with majors is softer pricing.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: We've talked about this all star pricing. This this goes
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: with leveraging the chalk build. So it's right on pace
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: with what we're talking about. But in majors and softer
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: prices events, we can focus less on being contrarian because
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: naturally the ownership gets spaced out with a bigger, one
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty six person event where people know less
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: people or these lazy weeks like I've talked about, the
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: ownership gets more congested, and then it actually makes it
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: easier to pivot off of guys. But we're not saying
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: you don't have to be contrarian, but we're saying, and
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: what you just said reminding me of something actually funny
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: NFL related as well, is my own leak in my
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: own game that I'm gonna be working on for this
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: upcoming season. It's a golf show, but you can apply
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: it to this. I'm gonna do it in golf in
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: two seconds. In NFL when the season starts, we have
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: softer pricing and people go mad trying to like figure
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: it out, and it's like, no one knows anything yet,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: but we know that looks like bad pricing, so we're
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: gonna use the best players just use it to their advantage.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: It might just be the stack that they're on that's
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: slightly different. It might be everyone's on a running back
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: and this stack and they flip the build or it
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: might be everyone's on high priced running backs and they
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: go to lower, but it still allows them to fit
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: the popular stack or the popular guy.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: But now it fits the quarterback and the wide receiver too.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: And I'm using NFL because people can relate and like, damn,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: that just looks like every like, how do I not
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: get to that?
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 3: It just they played all the chalk.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: It's not that they got a few things different, but
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: they didn't ignore the softer pricing and the lower They're
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: not trying to.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: Pivot just to pivot, and that's what so many people do.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: Same thing here, Like I said, That's what I was
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: trying to explain earlier.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: People will just go nuts.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: About a guy like Hoguard, especially in like a higher stakes,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: smaller field.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: I get it, and there's tons of ways you can
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: get different.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: But I'm saying, if you really want that play in
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: your lineup and you want to use that, stop thinking
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: about that play and that singular ownership, and start thinking
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: about what that can do for your build, and then
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: tie it together with all the things that Blickele just
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: talked about and I mentioned throughout the show of like
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: ways that you can use it to your advantage. Because
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: you're still not if you got Hoguard and that's it,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: but you're not in the three v three, you're not
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: in the four v four. You don't have Scotty, you
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: don't have cam Young, You've got a little bit of
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: a different variation, whatever it looks like to you. What's
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: stopping you from using that? If you still think Hoguard's
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: the option down there, you think he's under price by
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: fifteen hundred dollars, why would you not use him and
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: figure it out from there? So too many people get
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: caught up in that of like, oh, I just can't
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: play Hi because he's x percent owned. It's you got
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: to figure out what he can do. Does he do
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: something for you that does make you feel comfortable? If so,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: and I'll reverse it quickly just to get the final
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: thought out is people will go top down instead, and
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: they'll get an awesome top down build. They're like, holy shit,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: I can't believe it. I just did this magic thing,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: like I switched the build. I love what I see
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: in these first five, but of course it lands on Hoguard,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: that loser, that donkey chock. But they're not thinking about
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: how different their land up's a completely different construction, lower
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: owned options up top, like there's so many things going
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: in their favor, and they're like, I'm as well, go Rasmus,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: and they just can they get it? They get different
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: again at the bottom, and maybe Rass beats them this week.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: My point being, though you didn't. You're thinking about it
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: in two different ways. If you're starting with them, keep
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: that in mind, and then you got to think from there.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: But if you land on them, go back, what do
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: you currently have? Well, shit, I'm already super different. I'm
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: already in a different time zone than everybody else. I'm
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: not on what Blickele talked about with the three v
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: three's or the four v four's or all of that shit.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: I could actually play Hoguard and he clearly projects far
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: and away the best in this spot, and that ownership
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: isn't even gonna hurt me.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: It's after et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think enough people do that, And I know
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: a lot of people are playing one to three lineups
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: and they stumble into that as a mistake and like,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: should have just played Hoguard. Guess what, you could have
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: just played them. Nothing was stopping you. You just decided
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: because of like an arbitrary thing in a vacuum that
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: you can't and you could so any anything else you
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: want to add on leveraging the chalk bill, that was
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: my value play, softer pricing takes that I wanted to
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: make sure I got in before we get out of here.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: Uh no, I agree with that, and there will be
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: more in my leverage lane about that.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the betting breakdown. I know you,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: uh you had some calls last week. I telled both
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: of them it was it was Ricky Fowler and not
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: to win the whole thing. But if we were betting, well,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: what did he end up finishing? I hope fourth because
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: I was trying to think how it finished out. What
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: was the final leader board last week?
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 5: Where did fell finish?
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 3: But I know the last one.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: But if we had had him with the T three
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: and said now he got the T two, of course
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: he did. He would have hit that each way because
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: it was like rose and speed and it was like
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: why not just get you know Fowler he fits the
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: same mold from that.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's fine.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm going so what were my I
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 4: want to I want to figure out which one I
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: want to talk about because I think the the speF
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: pick like he was the one that I said, like
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 4: I'm I'm you know, almost ashamed to be talking about it.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 5: But it was funny because he kind of showed.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: Why we made the bet to begin with, because at
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: the truest like that was his best off the tea week.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 5: In a long, long long time.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, he gained one point twenty five per round.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: I'm trying to find, Okay, the Memorial in twenty twenty
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: four he was cut, he gained one point four to four.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: So the actually at Quel Hollow in twenty twenty four,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: Wells Fargo one point four to seven. That's the last
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: time that he did that well off the tee. So
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: like we we got what we needed right in that regard.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: He set himself up where if he had a spike
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: week with the Irons and or Putter or was good
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: around the green, he was gonna be in contention.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: The problem was it was.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: The only category he actually did well, and he was
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 4: really bad tea green or from fairway through the green
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 4: I should say not ta green because the again the
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: driving was awesome, but like that that's what we're looking
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: for with speed right now. Right it's the fact that
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: he is literally showing spike weeks in all four categories
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: and he just needs to put them together. He didn't
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: last week, but maybe he does this week. So I'm
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: actually going right back to him now at one hundred
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: and twenty five to one, and I will give both
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: my outrights this week since it's a major and it's
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: worth it. But Morikawa now available at fifty five to
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: one over on bet three sixty five, with that one
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: fifth each way for three spots, and I love his
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: outright because there is obviously still injury uncertainty, But the
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 4: truth is the jury uncertainty just doesn't matter that much
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: for outright bets because the chance that he's healthy is there,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: and if he's healthy, he can play well. And on paper,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: this is like a this is a fantastic fit for him.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: You get the accuracy and approach combo. Only Scottie Scheffler
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: has a higher combined strokes gained driving accuracy plus strokes
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: gained approach than Morikawa does in our estimates, and one
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: of his biggest weaknesses is around the green. Probably isn't
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: gonna matter as much here as he usually does, so
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: I love the fit for Colin. Yes, he might still
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: be hurt. But the other thing is like when Colin
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: talked about his back injury after the Masters, he didn't
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 4: talk about the issue being pain and finding a way
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: to swing through the pain or commit through the pain.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: He talked about just trust, trusted his back would hold
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: up if he did make an aggressive swing. But then
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: he went to the Heritage and he finished fourth and
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: his approach play was spectacular, which said to me, Okay,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: he's he's started to trust things again. Yeah, he was
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: bad in Durrell, but that golf course does not fit
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: him at all. So I don't care how he played
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 4: whatsoever much. I care a lot more about the fact
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: that he was healthy enough to go play a course
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: that he knew didn't fit his game, and then he
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: got a week off of rest. Like, I think there's
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: a pretty good chance that he's close to one hundred percent,
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: And if he's anywhere close to one hundred percent, he's
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: got a great chance to win on this golf course.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: In the market reflects like a fully injured version of himself,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: and not the potentially getting healthy again on a course
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: it really fits him well.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which is all the matters too, say you're getting
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: it reflected as much as we talked about when things
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: are baked in DFS and the same thing in DFS
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: with ownership, you can have from that perspective and you know,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: different roster constructions, all these factors.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: But yeah, from a betting perspective, love that.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: Cos Speet also had a pretty good celebration. He went
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: back to the go get that last week. But it's
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: tough to do when you're down the board. I mean
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: maybe he thought he was going up the board, so
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: that's what he was doing.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: That was the eagle putt, of course, which was nice
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: to see.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: But yeah, going back to it never wrong, just early
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: is it common saying in the golf space, especially with
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: golf betting. So I like that call going back to
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: him one and done. What do we got for this
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: week and what's available for us to use? Man?
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: I thought I thought there was a I thought there
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: was a time last week where we're gonna be we
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: were gonna be right back.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 5: In it since we used Cam last week.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: Uh, but then Cam kind of faded on Sunday, which
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: was very unlike him this year. Uh, we can kind
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: of do whatever we want, but I think we need
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: to be contrarian, because there are an awful lot of
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 4: people in really good shape now, given how consistent Cam
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: and Fitzpatrick have been, and you know a lot of
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: people have Scotty second place finishes.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 5: We have Scotty, Rory.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: Rom Bryson, Oberg, Fitzpatrick, Koepka, Morikawa. My choice, I think
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: it's Fitzpatrick is like one of the things that I
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: keep touching on and I think is a really important
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: point when you're thinking through the game theory of one
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: and done at this point is if you haven't gotten
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: a win from Fitzpatrick or Cam especially, But I'd also
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: throw Rory in there because he was popular at the Masters.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: Their ownership the week of doesn't matter anymore. You are
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: competing with people way ahead of you who can't possibly
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: use him again. So if you're way behind, the easiest
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: way to catch up is to use guys who've already
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: won and make that previous win less important because they
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 4: win again. And so I Fitzpatrick, Cam, Rory. If you've
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: got any of those three guys still remaining, this is
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: a great week to use them because the purse is
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: so high. I think for that reason, Fitzpatrick is probably
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: my favorite choice here. I think he's a really good
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: fit for the course and we haven't used him yet.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: I'm five with Fitzpatrick.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: I was just gonna say, did we have a like
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: I remember some conversation around like do we go Cam
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: or Rory and then flip it for the following week.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: But I think if people have, you know, like who
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: knows how it goes. But obviously those that.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: Have Rory left over, he's in high consideration. Even with
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: the live conversation stuff where people like, oh, but it's
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: the only time people get to play live guys. I
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: don't think people really want to play Bryce in here.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: They got the US Open for rom, they got the
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: US Open in the open. It's like, I don't know
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: how high those guys are going to be. I don't
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: think people are, you know, super high on the ones
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: that you know, don't get into all the big events
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: as often like Brooks making a nice run at Myrtle
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: last week before the crazy story of brand Stenecker getting
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: the job done, but just noting it, like isn't around
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: every week to play, So maybe some people who gravitate,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: but not that many I think so. To me, it's
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: like Scotty gets pushed, Cam Young still gets pushed, and
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: and maybe even Rory a little bit, just for whoever
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: has him left over. But did you have any second
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: thoughts because we did, Waiver. I think last week back
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: and forth on like Young versus Rory and why we
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: went Young but out on Rory and in unfits is
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: what you're saying.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, I just think you know this is when
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: when we play Rory, I want it to be at
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: a course where he's taking full advantage of his length,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: and I don't think he's gonna be able to do
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: that here. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but ironically, like
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: I think Bryson is one of the best plays this
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: week as well, because I'm in full agreement with you
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: on what you just said, where even though the field
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: is very aware of the play lift guys in majors
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: because it's the only chance you get to play them strategy,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's gonna be popular at all this week.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: He was popular at the Masters, He's gonna be very
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: popular in the US Open. He'll be somewhat popular at
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: the Open Champion just because, like you know, especially if
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: he does well in one of these majors beforehand, it's
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 4: gonna be people's last chance to use him. They will,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: but I don't think people are really gonna use him
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: this week. I think Ron will still be a popular pick,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: but I don't think Bryson will because the US Open
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 4: narrative is just so so strong for him. So I
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: like that thought as well of just saying I might
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: get to lean into the live strategy in major championships
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 4: with one of the best players on live, one of
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: the two best players, and get him at pretty you know,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: intriguing ownership. So I think that that's also very much in.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: Play, right, I'm down to go fits. I'm in on that.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: Probably wrap this thing up in the next five or
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: six minutes, I will say. Aaron brought up said Blickl's
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: point is a good one and probably counter intuitive. Most
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: with only one bullet will likely take less risk, which
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: gets on common build very true. And also want to
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: know this is like one of the number one mistakes.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: I talk about it in my you know, my master
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: my modules with the Court, the my map modules that
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: I have over on DFS Mastermind, the courses that I
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: go through, everything I've talked about sort of my.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: Whole time doing this is people.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: The secret of satellites are part of the secret is
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: when you play satellites, you gotta play that way when
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: you get the ticket too, not tense up, don't. It's
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: like when somebody makes a bet and then gets like
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: one tenth of it and it's like, should I cash out?
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: It's why the hell did you make the bet? Like
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: you you're tensing up now for no reason. It's not over.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: There's three full days to go and whatever. And I
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: know I'm exaggerating the numbers, but my point being when
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: you a lot of people play loose in a nine
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: dollars satellite wake up or end the day super pumplic,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, I just want a five to fifty
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: five ticket, and then they go play a five fifty
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: five ticket horribly because they're like, oh, I can't play
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: like I just did the way you just won with
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: you can't play like that. Well, no, it'd be pretty risky,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: wouldn't it.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: No, it would not.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: So that's how you win the actual tournament now, So
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: that that would be the way you'd want to kind
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: of keep that in check. Obviously you can make some adjustments,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: but just from a grand scheme overview, I like to
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: talk about that's a huge mistake I see people make,
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: so it kind of goes with that too.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I love your call out there on the cash
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: outs that That has to be my biggest pet peeve
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: about the betting industry is when you especially like let's
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: say it's an NFL Sunday parlay, and you include one
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: bet from the Sunday Night game, like you know with
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: one hundred percent certainty that if everything goes according to plan,
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: you're gonna have to make that decision, and you chose
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: to include the Sunday Night prop as well or the
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: Sunday Night bet, knowing that that meant that your cash
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: out offer is going to be lower than what you
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 4: would have made if you just didn't include it. And
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: people still include it and then take the cash out
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: so you knew you're gonna have to make that decision.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: What the hell are you doing? But people do it
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: all the time. It drives me nuts.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: See emotional mindset right, like they get attached to the
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: money that's not theirs yet, but it could be if
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: they just press this button. And I think there's like
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: you know again, honestly, most of them are still bad,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: but there's like life changing decisions on some of these
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: big ones for people, Like let's say someone's rolling with
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: like thirty grand a debt. They've got a parlay to
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: win one hundred k, and this parlay is like a
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: bad cash out at thirty five grand, but they're making
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: a life decision at that point. Again, math and US
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: and numbers and most people thinking about like, yes, probably
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: you should still run it. But I at least understand
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: if it's at that level. Like I've seen people, you know,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: so you've seen some of these biggs's like five hundred
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: grand and their cash out is for like one hundred
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: and forty grand.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: It might be two to three year salary maybe more
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: like I don't know.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying like that could be that, And it's
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: like I get, then I get there's a totally different conversation.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: From a math perspective. It's still bad. But I always
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: say that's where.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: Most cases, but maybe not maybe maybe other factors.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: The criticism in this example isn't isn't of them actually
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 4: taking the cash out. It's of them placing or adding
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: that leg to the parlay to begin with, knowing that
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 4: you're gonna take the cash out, because you might be
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: taking a cash out at like twenty thousand dollars, when
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 4: if you just hadn't include that, hadn't included that prop,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 4: you would have made twenty three thousand dollars on the parlay. Instead,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: you cost yourself three thousand dollars because you threw that
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: into the end of the parlay without even considering if
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: I if I end up hitting every single leg except
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: for that one, am I gonna have the stone sletter ride?
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: And where I gonna want to cash out? Just think
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: about it, right, It's just that it's not that hard,
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 4: especially when you have been doing parlay bets for a
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 4: while and you know the cash out option is coming
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 4: and you still end up taking it.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: That's the funniest part. Yeah, you know what's coming in,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: but it's like that's not even brought into the original
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: thought process.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 5: Right, Like, you didn't you didn't get blindsided by this.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: You didn't you weren't surprised that the Sunday Night game
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: didn't happen earlier in the day. You know it was
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: the Sunday Night game. You know that the cash out's coming,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: you know you're gonna take it because it's still in.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 5: A life changing amount.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 4: Why didn't you just not click that one to begin with,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: and you would have made an extra six thousand dous.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: The best part two is the reactions, and I was like,
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: oh my god, a cash out option.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 3: It's like you legit knew that was coming.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: But it's like if you're acting like you're super surprised,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: it's just you're more surprised that you hit the other
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: legs of it and now you have a decision to
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: make and the emotions get involved.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: But it's always fun.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: We want to have fun with all we do, so
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: we appreciate everybody tuning in and watching this. We of
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: course have our leverage lane to go through still, Alex,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: I'll let you go first. I'm very concerned we end
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: up similar, but I'm gonna try and like at least
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: tie a secondary part to it. But by all means,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: I guess I will say this, even if we do
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: end up similar, the point would be this is why
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: it's fun, like doing content on major weeks together, like
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: especially with the Mayos show being involved now too, and
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: we're on the other ones.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: You aw's gonna have all three of us on all
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: the majors, he said.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: So it's like that's where we were seeing it so
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: clearly that day. It's like it hasn't really changed that
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: I don't see it where it's that so it's kind
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: of like it's like it just coming together now, that's
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: what's happening.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, we literally finished that show with Pat four
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: or five days ago, and as soon as we all
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: finished recording, we said, like, did it feel like we
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: have like a really good picture of what this DFS
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: content is gonna look like? Even though like we don't
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: even have projections from any sites, we don't have ownership,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: like we nothing, and yet it feels like we have
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: a pretty slided So yeah, and not surprised that we
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: seem to be seeing it clearly and similarly. But I'm
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 4: gonna try to frame our phrase my leverage lane in
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: a way that's different from what I think you're gonna say.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: And so my leverage lane is gonna be trying to
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: find separators as high up the pricing board as I
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: can possibly find and build my lineup through them. And
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: so I'm gonna use the lineup that you had previously
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: as an example, where you talked about starting Cam Yong
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: Nikolai Hoyguard and Seawu Kim and that leaves. That leaves
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: the potential for, like let's say, Rom Fowler and Minwouly,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: something very chalky and something that puts you in that
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: exact scenario that we were talking about trying to avoid earlier,
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: where you are forcing yourself to get that combination of
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: like you know, mid seven k guys perfectly correct, and
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: in this case you'd have all of Hoyguard, Seewu, Kim,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: Fowler and Minwule. So you're gonna have to get that right.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: And so like one possible pivot off of that build.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: One way to get out of that would be to say, okay,
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Ram Straka and Thigala. So now I'm
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: going Straca and Thigala instead of min Wu and Fowler.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: But now the problem with this type of lineup is,
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 4: look at the quality of your separators. Your separators are
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: now steps Straca and Sa Thigala. I've got no problem
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: with that. Those are good players, they have plenty of upside.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: They are valid separators. But if instead of going Ram
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: Straka Thigala you go something like you're now left with
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: eighty four to sixty six for these final threes, you
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: could do something like let's say you still like Straca,
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 4: so you're gonna leave Straca in and now you're gonna
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: go Speak and Chris gotter up. Well, now you have
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: three separators instead of two, and instead of Straka Thagala,
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: you have Straka, Speak and gotter.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 5: Up as your potential separators.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: So the quality of player is just a lot higher,
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 4: your win equity is a lot higher. And these are
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: the guys that you're relying on to actually get you
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: to the top of DFS leaderboard. So this is one
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: example that you can use of the type of lineup
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 4: that I'm gonna build. But I'm looking at the separating
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: potential in my lineup to be from the best possible
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: players they can be. So I'm gonna explore Rory lineups,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: Bryson lineups. Morikawa looks like a separator, Hoveland, Rose, Hitdecki Hatton,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: even Brooks JT got her up.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 5: As I just mentioned, speak.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 4: Lowry like, I'm looking at this group to start there
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: and then I can fill out the rest of my
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 4: LINEU pretty much however I want.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's good, we're not We're not on the
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: same and it'll be it'll be somewhat similar. But I mean,
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: I don't just want to say fade Scotty, because I'm
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: definitely fading Scotty after what we talked about, and I
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: was already in on that part of the conversation. Is
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: the builds end up to some of the It's not
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: just that though, like people get it so confused, like,
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: oh really, that's that's pretty risky.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: It's Scotty, I get all that. It's not even about that.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 3: It's for me. It's a lot of the names you
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: just mentioned.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: I can't get multiples of them, let alone in some
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: cases even one and feel as good about it.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 3: So when when you've got the quality in the nine
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: K range.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: Of players that I still believe can come through here,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: and then you've got the quality of the guys in
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: the eight K range, and we did X amount of builds,
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: We did tons of builds to try and look through
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: this that you just don't land on them. None of
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: the builds land on them. So that's gonna be awesome
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: for getting leverage in a portfolio. That's also gonna be
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: awesome to get leverage in a you know, doesn't matter.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: I was talking with the two undred dollars single entry
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: on here, So I do have a mega ticket this week,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: but I'm gonna note it just to be clear. So
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: for the tw hundred dollars Singletry one hundred KF top,
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: my thing is gonna be multiple eight K guys. And
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: the reason I'm gonna go that route, and I'll say,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: fate Scott, he is an add on instead of this
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: starting point is because there's enough guys and just the
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: eight K range alone that it could pick up more
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: of them. There's definitely some nine K guys, but then
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: there's also builds that could be like I don't know,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: cam Yong or Ram or fits that jump into this
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: eight K range. But all I'm saying is is that's
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: how I'm gonna look to differentiate, because we just looked
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: through all these different builds and none of them can
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: really land on that.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 3: It just they don't.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: And we gave one version that could land on it,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: and it's with like three chalky eight K guys. So
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: there's tons of ways to get different in the AK.
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: Rangers can't lay Goddter Up, Henley Speed Lowry, Bobby mac
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: ben Griffin. Even if you don't like niem It, there's
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: Burns Sepstraka, like, there's so many options in there, and
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: I think if you're playing multiple eight K guys, you're
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: gonna just naturally be different. But I think what's most
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: interesting is that they they can lead you to so
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: many different unique build types. Even if you did end
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: up in your portfolio with a sea Wu or a
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: Hoguard or the popular option up top that we talked about,
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: there are almost none of those builds end up in
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: these three v three, four v four categories unless you
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: literally play the highest owned option at every other price
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: that fits. So just noting that perspective, I think that's
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: kind of the the key for me.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I level that ours are very clearly similar. I
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: thought I thought what yours was gonna be was that
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: you were going to play some of the value chalk
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 4: and just not all of it. So like whether it
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 4: was Nikolai, whether it was Sea Wu, I thought that's
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: where you were gonna go with your leverage lane and
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: then just get different elsewhere, Which is why I didn't
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 4: want to explicitly say that, because like then they would
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: literally be identical. But just to just to clarify my
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 4: leverage lane now that you haven't said that, I am
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: probably playing some of the value chalk, probably Nikolay, maybe
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: Seewoo Kim. I would I'd be more surprised if I
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: end up not playing Nikolay than if I end up
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 4: not playing Seawoo just because he's another fourteen hundred dollars cheaper.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 4: But it's it's similar to like one of one of
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 4: the leverage lanes that we often used in the NFL
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: season was quote unquote flipping the build. Like let's say
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: the field was, you know, paying up for Christian McCaffrey
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: and Jon Robinson. We'd say, well, okay, I'm gonna go
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 4: to the value running backs and then I'm gonna pay
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 4: up for a J Brown and Jamar Chase or something
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: like that. This is a similar idea where most of
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: the field is picking their favorite plays up top, either
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 4: Scottie builds or loading up on rom Cam, Shoftley, Fitzpatrick
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: and Oberg. What I'm saying is, I'm going to differentiate
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: up top instead, and now, instead of having to find
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: a way to get different from the field by going
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 4: off Nikolay guard who projects significantly better than everyone around him,
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: to you know, Keith Mitchell or Aaron Rye or saith Thigala,
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: Ricky Castillio or Ryan Gerard. Now I can just play
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: the best plays down there instead of feeling the need
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: to separate to find separators there. And the result is
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 4: I don't feel like I'm sacrificing a ton in terms
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: of like how good the best player is in my lineup,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: because when you look at like Rory or Bryson, like
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 4: obviously those guys Colin Morikawa or even Fleetwood or Hovelin
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: and Rose, like those guys have the same ceiling the
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: guys up top half. They can absolutely contend, they can
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: absolutely win. Now, the quality of my value play is
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: significantly better, and the quality of my separator is significantly better.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: Just so just a little bit of a clarification there
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: of what my leverage lane really is.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: I think the NFL thing relates to most people play
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: pgadfs play NFL too, But you said it like it's
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: different because that's positional, right. If people are paying up
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: at running back, you're still getting two payoffs. You're just
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: doing it at wide receiver in golf, that's it. There's
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: two pay ups. In our example of like Ram and
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: Young that are popular, they're all the same position though
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: they're a singular golfer and a six person salary cap
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: based game lineup, et cetera. So it's like you are
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: not pivoting from the two popular running backs in Ram
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: and Young to two popular wide receivers, but you're able
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: to say, yeah, well they're gonna be twenty something percent,
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: let's call it. And I can get Morikaw with injury
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: concern and Fitzpatrick who's been winning everything lately at a
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: better course fit that I see. And I'm different, even
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: though I'm spending the same amount up top. I'm just
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: different because that's where my separators lie.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of like if you know, let's say
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 4: there was a really cheap chuck stack and then the
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 4: whole field was using that cheap chalk stack and then
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: going to a really popular McCaffrey and Bjon Robinson. And
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: I'm saying, instead of going to mccafrey and Jon Robinson,
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 4: I'm then paying up for a contrarian Saquon Barkley and
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: Jamier Gibbs. It's like, obviously those guys can get me
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: forty points each and break the slate, and if they do,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: I now have highest probability cheap stack. And so I'm
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 4: relying on like the you know, as as good of
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: the highest quality players that I possibly can who also
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: give me the potential to separate.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and even in those lineups, he said earlier, like
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: in the football side of things, people can still play
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: the cheap chock tight end to make that work. I
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: still want the two payoffs. I'm just going in a
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: completely different direction. But the cheap tight end, I'm not
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: moving off of them. That's hoguard or hoyguard this week,
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: like you talk about him down low.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 3: So all right, let the.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: People know what else you got going on man, where they.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 3: Can find you.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: It is a major week. We appreciate everybody tuning in.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: We're excited obviously, as you can tell, for this major.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: We'll be back again next week to our regular time
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: Wednesday at ten thirty am Eastern for the what is
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: it the CJ Cup and Byron Nelson. Yeah, but this
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: is the major first. Let's get through the major first.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: Hopefully some big weeks for people watching or for ourselves here.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: But Alex, let the people know where they can find you.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: What else you got going on this?
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: Last thing I want to mention this week is like,
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 4: this is a spectacular underdog and props week because we're
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: gonna get some hole scores, and there're gonna be some
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 4: holes on this golf course where like one day the
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: pin was in a really easy location and the next
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: it's perfectly guarded by the greenside bunker, or one day's
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: perfectly guarded and the next day it's in the middle
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: of the green and in a funnel spot where you're
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: gonna see some huge swings in scoring average on particular
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: holes from one day the next. And the sites that
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 4: are offering whole scores, like Underdog and certain sports books,
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: they're not gonna see that kind of thing coming. So
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna be hammering away at props all week in
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 4: the discord. And a reminder to everyone, you can find
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: my discord through my Twitter at alex plica Ian and
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: use promo code Leverage for ten percent off forever. So
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 4: it's not just ten percent for your first month, it's
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: every single time your subscription renews, you still get that
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: ten percent off.
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know you should do like if you're not
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 3: in the discord.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: First of all, that's what you should do watching this
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: and get an Alex's Discord. But I would say you
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: should buy a URL like go on like name cheap
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: or something whatever. You use godad somebodple use go Daddy,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: buy like a crazy URL that you like and just
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: have it forward directly to your because then it's so
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: much easier.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 3: It's like it could go there and it's like boom.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: It'll just land on your page and people can get
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: But you could have like a sick URL that's just
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: so easy to say and use and then boom, you know,
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: I like that blixscore dot com and it just forwards
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: to your page where people go sign up.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: It's just so much easier.
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: But yeah, man, if if you're not in Alex's discord,
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: definitely get in there. There's a ton of money to
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: be made in different ways each week if you guys
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: want to get in over at tip and Nation, we
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 2: are celebrating our three year anniversary is this Friday, May fifteenth,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: but with the Major week, want to celebrate. Everybody likes
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: early gifts. A lot of places with good deals this week.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: Most people use a major to promote their best sales
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: promotion of the year. To make money, we are giving
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: it away for free, so you can just go to
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: shipnation dot com click the banner at the top.
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 3: No code required.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: You could check out all access content for the week,
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: and that gets you in for free.
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: You can cancel it anytime.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: It's just noting that when you get in you do
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: have to set it up, but you'll be in the discord,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: you'll have access to everything. And to Timmy Timmy Dubbs
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: question he brought up early, I'll just bring us back
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: for two seconds.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 3: One thing that I'm gonna do.
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: And I know we don't have it set up for this,
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: and it's old data and all this yet, but obviously
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: the win equity will be a lot differ. Was Scott
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: he in the field and this. Everybody has different numbers,
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: but we were using our data. You would be able
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: to start to build lineups from this perspective. You're like, okay,
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: look and I'm just doing what I do. But you're like, okay,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: last week, not results oriented, just saying like what fits Like,
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: I'm just using cheaper guys that fit lineups that you're like, okay,
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: that's kind of what I have. Now, I've got eighteen thousand,
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: two hundred left. If I put Cam Young, what does
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: that land me with it's eighty one hundred. Well, these
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: are all high win equity guys. I'm I'm just using
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: an example of what you can do. And then you said, okay,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: I got sepstraca and speak. My process is to look
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: at the projections, like look at different factors. Okay, I
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: like step and you could do that and then you'd
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: see I've got nothing. That's my handbuild for the week,
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: and then you could compare off of that. But the
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: point being, you know a ten eight eight with three sevens,
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: you could see there is some separation, not much to
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: be honest in this one, because I kind of picked
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: the best of the best, but just noting it, you
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: would see your projection, you'd see what the ownership looks like,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: you'd see everything. That's what you can do with the
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: Stone two point zero and that is free to check
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: out this week again.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: Just go to the site click, you'll be in right away.
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 3: All right, good one is always Alex.
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: I love talking to the majors, love talking through the
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: shows in general with you. I think there's a lot
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: of good nuggets and tidbits and information that we brought
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: out there. So good luck to everybody this week. Appreciate
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: you all for watching. Make sure to hit that thumbs
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: up on the way out for Alex and for myself
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: to tagging Tambo good Luck this week. Led Ship It