Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Can't Keep Me Down | NHL Stanley Cup Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/9/26

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Tuesday BEST BETS | Can't Keep Me Down | NHL Stanley Cup Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/9/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:18
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: your chaps. Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something in somebody for show. Put
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: hold on.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: Me that but it don't get the crown.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody?
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: It's towed back with you With toad Stool Sports Tuesday,
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: June ninth, I still feel a crap, so hopefully we
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: could somehow get the show done quickly. Even though there's
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: a full baseball slate. I'm gonna give about three baseball plays.
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: Yesterday was a pass for me, which probably was a
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: good thing because my read on some of those games
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: was not great. Red Sox did not win, Houston won
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: if you went full game, didn't win if you went
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: first five. Washington won full game and pushed first five
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: if you went with that one. Those are kind of
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: my three strongest opinions. I suppose whatever, let's get into it.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: We have more WNBA Cup crap as well. I feel
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: like I'm being maybe too selective with the WNBA, but
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: I just don't like these games, dude.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: And then I'm gonna skip the hockey game as well.
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: I know, I think I haven't had a play in
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: the Stanley Cup finals, but that's just the way that
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: it is. I'm not gonna force something like when it
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: isn't there.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: So let's get into it. Seattle and Baltimore.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give out a play on this, even though
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: it looks like I'm on a public side.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Here, but I think it looks good to me.
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, it almost looks too easy, and I don't
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: like that the market read is going against this. But
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: we'll take Seattle on money line in this one. I
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: think this is a mismatch here in various ways. The
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: pitching throughout the game, I think it's pretty much a mismatch.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: I know Seattle did use four relief pitchers yesterday. They
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: still have a couple of their better relievers of it
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: bailable here. Baltimore is the lesser bullpen. They use two
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen, but the bullpen disparity is
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: quite a bit here. Seattle's got a bullpen ERA one
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: and a half runs better, even though I arrange it
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: by whip and they're only ranked fifteen Baltimore nineteen, but
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: I still think they have enough of an edge that
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: will take it full game. Here.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: Offenses are kind of comparable.
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is ranked eleventh, Seattle twelfth based on ops. But
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: I'm also looking at the starting pitching here, and if
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: you want to go first five with this, I wouldn't
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: really disagree with that either. It might be a little
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: bit more of a price here, but this price, I'm
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: worried that it looks too easy, But again, like this
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: is just the way that I see it. Logan Gilbert
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Seattle. He's been really good. Three point
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: seven to nine ERA one point one whip. He's been
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: awesome on the road point nine to four Roady Ray,
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: which again doesn't really make sense because these Seattle pitchers,
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: you expect him to do better at home because it's
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: more pitcher friendly.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: He's been way worse at home.
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: He's been awesome on the road, so I think we
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: can ride him on the road here. He didn't have
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: a great outing last time out against the Mets, but
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: he still had eight strikeouts in one walk, so he
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: is still in good form right now. His command numbers
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: have been good basically the entire season. He's got more
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: than one strike gut and ending low hit rate, low
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: walk rate. His home run rate is a little bit high, though,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: but that's getting skewed a little bit by having seven
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: home runs all lout across a couple of starts there
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: in early May. So he did give up two in
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: his last down into the Mets, though, but I think
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: he can pitch well here. He is going to go
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: up against Baltimore, who they do have a good offense,
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: but Gilbert has been good against them. Sixty nine at
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: bats in his career against them, one seventy four average,
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: five eighty one ops, twenty one to four strikeout walk ratio.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: All these numbers are good, so I think we should
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: get a good start from Gilbert here. Home road splits
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: point in his direction. He's the better of the two
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: pitchers over the course of the season. It's not even
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: really close. He's got good matchup numbers. He's going up
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: against Trevor who has not been anywhere near what he
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: was last year for Baltimore, which is making last year
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: look like more and more of a fluke, because I
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: didn't think he was gonna do anything last year, Like
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: I looked at his numbers before that when he was
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: on Miami and whenever he wasn't good.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Then last year he was shockingly good. But this year
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: he has been horrible.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: Six point two ninety RA one point five to one
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: whip bad numbers. He's a little bit better at home,
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: but six point zero ninety RA is still terrible. Did
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: pitch well in his last game against Boston. He did
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: have a couple of decent starts in a row here.
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: He's gonna have to step up in class to face Seattle, though,
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: after facing Toronto and Boston and Detroit before that. Seattle's
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: a better offense than all three of those. He's got
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: a low strikeout rate this year, a hit rate that's
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: definitely too high. His walk rate is kind of mediocre.
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: He hasn't been good, and his numbers against Seattle aren't
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: really any veteran thirty nine at bats, seven to seven
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, three to zero WA eight average allowed,
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: one thousand and three ops. So I see this as
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: a pitching mismatch. Here. I think we have the pitching
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: edge throughout this entire game. The one concern would be
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: that Baltimore is kind of in a bounce back spot historically,
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: because they lost yesterday in a return home spot. And
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: a lot of times when that happens and a team
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: doesn't do that well in the return home spot, they
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: bounce back and they do better in the next game.
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: So Baltimore isn't a positive situational spot in that regard.
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: But I don't know if that situation is really strong enough.
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: I think this is a big pitching mismatch. We're getting
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: a cheap price here. We'll go with Seattle here. I
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: consider leaving this off my card, but I don't know.
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, it looks like Baltimore is kind of public.
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: Eighty percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: on them, even though they have the worst record.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is with that. Really.
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: Seattle's favored on the road for a reason, though Osbakers
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: is telling you that they should be the better team
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: in this matchup here, it does look like the money
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: is actually hitting Baltimore here. I thought we were on
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: a public side here too. It looks like we're kind
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: of not, but whatever, we'll go with Seattle here. I
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: see it as one of the bigger mismatches of the day.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: Arizona at Miami. These two teams did not play yesterday.
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: Miami is staying at home. They've won five of their
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: last six games as well, so they're playing decent baseball
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: right now. Arizona is having to fly in from home.
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: They had yesterday off as well, so the bullpens are
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: rested here. And I talk about this when teams are rested,
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: I tend to look towards unders a lot of the
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: time because you get rested bullpens, so all the bullpen
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: arms are available. The hitters can be cooled off a
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: little bit by the day off, so I do tend
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: to lean in that direction here.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Arizona could be in a little bit of a positive.
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: Spot because you usually are focused to start a road trip,
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: but they are having to travel across a couple of
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: time zones here, but going east is easier to do
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: with the going west for a late night game. These
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: bullpens have both been pretty good, Miami number seven, Arizona
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: number nine, although their era is a little bit worse
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: than that. Hitting wise, these teams have not been that great.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: Miami twenty first, Arizona twenty third. That's not exactly good.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: And this is a pitcher friendly ball here.
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: Low total here too, So there are some aspects of
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: this that do kind of make this look like it
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: could be an under Zach Gallon is pitching for Arizona.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: He's had bad numbers though, five point three to two ERA,
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: one point five to two WHIP. He's been really bad
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: on the road seven point five to seven road ERA,
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: which doesn't really make sense because Arizona is a hitter
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark, but he's way better at home.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: It's the way that it is.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: Maybe he'll pitch it better here because it's a pitcher
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: friendly park, but I don't know. He had a low
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate in his last two starts. That's a little
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: bit of a red flag there. His strikeout rate on
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: the season is actually really low, and his hit rate
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: is really high, and his walk rate isn't that great either,
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: So these overall numbers do not look good.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Miami, though, doesn't hit him well.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: They only have twelve at bats against him, only four
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: of their hitters have ever faced and they have a
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: one sixty seven average. No extra base hits five hundred
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: ops five to three strikeout walk ratium. It's such a
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: small stamp, but there's not a whole lot you can
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: do with that. But maybe he does have a little
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: bit of an advantage here because it is against an
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: offense that doesn't have familiarity with him. They haven't really
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: hit him well when they've seen him. This is a
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: pitcher friendly park, and Max Meyer is pitching for Miami.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: You know, I think he's good. Two point eight one ERA,
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: one point zero five whip. He's been really good this season.
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: He's been really good at home one point seventy nine
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: hom e Ra pitched really well in his last game
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: on the road at Washington. Miami's won a bunch of
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: his starts recently. They won six of his last seven starts.
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: The one start they didn't win was the start where
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: he gave up five and runs against the Mets. But
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: his pitching line still wasn't really that bad other than
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: the fact that his walk number went up a little bit.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Season wide, numbers are really good.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is really low, his strike gout rate
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: is high, his walk rate is okay.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Numbers against I already forget who.
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: We're talking about here. Who are we talking about Arizona?
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know why.
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: My mind just doesn't work that way anymore. His numbers
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: against Arizona, believe or not, are actually not good. They
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: have five hitters who have faced him thirteen at bats
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: three eighty five average, one forty four oh ps five
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: to one strike out walk ratio. Does that mean I
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: actually think Meyer's gonna pitch poorly here? No, not really.
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: This is just such a small sample size, and I
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: don't believe it was this year, So I think you
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: have to take that with a bit of a grain
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: of salt. I don't think he's gonna pitch that poorly.
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: I think the under might be the way to look
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: at this game.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Again.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: It's a situation that at least sets up for it
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: because you have two decent bullpens that are rested.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: Money looks like it's hitting the over. I don't really
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: agree with that. Eighty three percent of tickets, ninety three
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over. The total is
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: low seven and a half. It's low for a reason.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: I think both pitchers could actually maybe get the job
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: done here. So I would lean under, But I don't
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: have a good gauge on this game. Really, Arizona is
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: getting the money. It looks like, for whatever reason, sixty
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: one percent of tickets eighty one percent of the cash
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: on Arizona. I mean, I did just show you. Gallon
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: at least does have better matchup numbers here, So I mean,
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: I guess you could potentially take a shot with Arizona.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: Miami's around minus one thirty here. I don't really want
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: to fade Max Meyer though, though maybe this could potentially
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: be a spot where maybe you could do that, But
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: you don't want to weigh these matchup numbers that heavily
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: because there's such a small sample size. So Gerald, what's up?
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: Thanks for hanging out. I feel a crap. My sore
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: throat has turned into the sinus part of this whole
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: thing now. It's not going well. Also, the Red Sox loss,
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: so that's not going well either. They're playing against Tampa
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: again today. Red Sox lost three to one yesterday, so
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: yet again, the Red Sox offense is their downfall again.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: Good pitching from the Red Sox yesterday, bad hitting. They
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: use four relief pitchers yesterday. They do have the better bullpen.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay had a bullpen game yesterday, so they used
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: six relief pitchers yesterday, so the Red Sox should have
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: a bullpen advantage again here they're ranked third and bullpen
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: and Tampa Bay is seventeenth and their ERA is significantly
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: higher than the Red Sox. Red Sox have a struggling offense,
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: so twenty fifth after the did go on a little
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: bit of a run, but now they're playing poorly again.
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay fourteenth in offense, So Tampa Bay does have
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: the better hitting. Red Sox have the pitcher with more
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: upside in this game. I would say they have the
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: much younger, probably higher ceiling, Like I said, pitcher here,
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: Peyton Totley. He's been good two point two eight ERA
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: point nine to seven whip. I saw some metrics. I
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: think it was like some of the advanced analytics that
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: put him like upper echelon pitchers this season, which is
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: a good sign.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: He doesn't have significant home roads.
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: What's his ERA is almost exactly the same home and
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: away pitch well last time out against Baltimore shut them
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: out after he had kind of a shaky start the
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: previous start against Atlanta.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: He still hasn't allowed more than three or in runs
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: in any.
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: Start this season, he's got a high strikeout rate, low
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: hit rate in his walk rate isn't too bad either.
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: Numbers against Tampa Bay, though they've faced him, He actually
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: pitched well against them earlier this season in Fenway, he
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: had an outing where he went five innings, allowed one
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: on and run on, six hits, four strikeouts, no walk,
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: so he was not bad in that outing. But his
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: career numbers against Tampa must include some really bad start
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: last year or something, because his numbers are not good
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: against them. It's a very small sample eighteen at bats,
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: so maybe you shouldn't put too much weight into this
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: three eighty nine batting average with though nine four oh
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: ps two zero strikeout walk ratio, that doesn't look that great.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: And Tampa is.
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: One of the more familiar teams with him in the
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: league so far. So a lot of times you have
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: these younger pitchers, they do better when they're unfamiliar to
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: their opponent, and he's not very unfamiliar to Tampa. Nick
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: Martinez is pitching for Tampa much older dude, but he
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: is having a good season two point twenty nine e
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: RA one point one to nine whip. He's been worse
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: at home, but two point eight six y is not
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: exactly bad. Wasn't good in his last start though against Detroit.
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: There are some red flags in here. I mean, pitching
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: poorly against Detroit is not a good thing because they're
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: not a good offense. Two of his last three outings
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: he only had one strikeout. That's not a good sign either.
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: So his strikeout rate is kind of low. It's actually
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: really low on the season. He's not striking out anybody.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: He's a lot more than one hit per inning as well,
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate is quite low. He's been all right,
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: but he does not really go out there and blow
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: guys away. Red Sox have hit him well in the
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: past fifty eight at bats three twenty eight average eight
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: thirty nine oh ps nine to one strikeout walk ratio,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: and they faced him earlier this year, but he actually
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: pitched okay in Fenway. He went five or two thirds,
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: give up one on run on seven hits though three strikeouts,
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: no walk, so he was okay in that outing. I
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: think totally is probably the better pitcher, though, Like if
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: I was gonna pick a side, I think I probably
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: would lean to the Red Sox again here slightly. I
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: think an over could potentially be worth a look here,
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: though the money's coming on Tampa. I don't really know why,
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: because the Red Sox initially did move to a favorite here,
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: so the favorite flipped to the Red Sox, which which
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: is usually some indicator. But we have eight fifty four
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: percent of the tickets on the Red Sox fifty six
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Tampa.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: I don't really buy that though.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: I don't think the public is coming in and playing
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox here.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't think so because their record is just bad.
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: They're eleven and a half games behind Tampa Bay, so
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: I don't really see that really being the case here.
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: The odds makers, I think, are telling you something like
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: I said yesterday by lining the Red Sox as a favorite.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: But I thought the Red Sox had a better match
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: up betge yesterday with a good young starter against a
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: bullpen game, and they still couldn't get it done. I think,
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: like I said in over, might actually be worth considering
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: here because both starting pitchers are familiar to the opposing hitters,
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: and they both have bad matchup numbers, and there's not
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: much leeway here with the total of seven and a half.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: Usually I know seven and a half. Odds makers are
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: telling you they think it's gonna be a pitching duel.
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: They think it's gonna be a low scoring game. But
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: I could see this going over. Tampa Bay's bullpen is
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: like completely shot here too, so that might actually be
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: my preference in this game.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Is to just go over. But this is not gonna
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: be a play for me.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: I could see both pitchers doing well here too, because
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: they both have done well on the season. Obviously, uh So,
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: obviously there's still a decent chance they pitch well.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Excuse me.
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: We have a sixty three percent of tickets, sixty one
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the under, so the money
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: looks like it is indicating.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Towards the over. Kyle, what's up?
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: They start hanging out? Next game is Dodgers and Pirates.
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: Uh these teams were off yesterday. Pittsburgh is returning home.
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: They went to Houston and Atlanta got swept by Atlanta.
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: You know, I do talk about when a team returns
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: home from the road, it's a bad spot. Generally you
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: have to get back to home life. It can be
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: a distraction. But I think the fact that they're playing
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: to the Dodgers might keep them focused enough here, but
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: I would say it's still negative for Pittsburgh enough that
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: I don't think I really want to get involved in
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: this game. Dodgers are having to travel though they're coming
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: in from LA, so they do have a day off,
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: but having to travel across multiple time zones can be
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: a little bit difficult, although again starting a road trip,
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: like I said with Arizona, sometimes is a positive spot.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are number one in offense, Pittsburgh number six. Dodgers
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: number two in bullpenal their ray has actually gone up,
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: so maybe they're not really the number two bullpen here,
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: still better than Pittsburgh, who is sixteenth better ERA than
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: they have as well. Now looking at this pitching matchup, though,
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: this looks like the starting pitching matchup has to be
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: an edge for Pittsburgh here. Eric Lawers pitching for the Dodgers.
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: They just picked him up off the scrap heap not
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: too long ago after Toronto got rid of him. He
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: hasn't been good this season most of these numbers with
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: Toronto though, five point seventy for ERA one point.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Three to eight whip.
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: He was pretty good for Toronto last year, but this
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: year he was just not doing well. His road numbers
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: are not great either, five point five to seven. Roady,
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: al right, he is a little bit better on the road,
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: but that's still pretty bad, and Pittsburgh is a good
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: offense at home. Lower has made two starts with the
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: Dodgers here. I don't know why this says he was
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: acquired between these last two.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: These these were both with the Dodgers.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure he had one good start at home
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: against Colorado and then he had a pretty shaky start
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: in his last start on the road against Arizona. I
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: think this is more comparable to that Arizona start because
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: he is going to a road environment that's not gonna
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: be very pitcher friendly going up against Pittsburgh here. I
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: hate how ESPN does not switch these. He's got bad
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: numbers against Pittsburgh forty one at bats. You only have
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: six hitters who have faced him, but they've all done
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: damage pretty much, three sixty six batting average, eleven to
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: twenty seven OPS, eight to two strikeout walk ratio. So
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: Loward does not look like he sets up very well here,
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: and he has to go up against Paul Skeens, who
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: is the better of these two pitchers obviously, three point
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: zero nine ERA point nine to one whip. He's been
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: good at home two point five homeyra. You expect that
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: his ERA on the season should be in the twos
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: as well. I think maybe at some point it will be.
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit shaky though over his last
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: four starts. In fact, Pittsburgh has lost all four of them.
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: Not entirely his fault, but he did a lot too
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: many runs in a couple of them.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: But I think he's probably gonna get back into form here.
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's skiings, he's got a high strikeout rate,
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, really low hit rate. We know that
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: he's really good. Obviously his numbers against the Dodgers hard
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: hitting lineup, but Skeens has done pretty well against them
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: in the past. Sixty two at bats, seventeen strikeouts, two walks,
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: two ten average six seventy oh ps. So, even though
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: I don't love to jump on teams that are in
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: the return home spot, and that's kind of the reason
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: why I'm avoiding this, you're not gonna get skins at
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: a cheap price like this very often, Dude, sixty four
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: percent ticket, seventy eight percent of the cash on Pittsburgh.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: They're on minus one twelve. I would lean to Pittsburgh here.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: Again, I don't love the spot in the return home spot.
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: I think I would actually play at first five. But
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: if you do that, you have to pay a little
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: bit extra uh in the first five because obviously the
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are they know that the biggest edge Pittsburgh has
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: is the starting pitching matchup, so you're you're probably gonna
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: have to lay a bigger money line on that. But
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: I think that's the way I would do it, is
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh first five money line. I think you have an
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: edge there with Skeins over lour. So that's the way
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: I would look at that game. Next game up is
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: gonna be another play for me. We better get some
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: wins here today. Man, this next game, I think this
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: is gonna be an under the radar type of play here,
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: Twins and Tigers. I'm gonna go under four and a
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: half in the first five innings here with this pitching
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: matchup here. And it might sound crazy like nobody's gonna
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: want to play an under in a game like this,
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: but as I already pointed out, you have two teams
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: that are returning, the two teams that were off yesterday,
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: excuse me. So I think when that happens, the bats
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: can kind of cool off a little bit. You get
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: rested bullpens here. I know I'm cutting the bullpens out anyway,
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: because I don't like these bullpens at all. Like I
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: don't think you could. You do not want to risk
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: having Minnesota's bullpen in here. They're twenty eighth and bullpen
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: very bad Detroit twenty first, so I'm just gonna cut
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: them out.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: These offenses have.
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: Struggled Detroit twenty third, Minnesota nineteenth, so I think we
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: could fade these offenses here, and I like the starting
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: pitching here. I'm looking at the scheduling spot. By the way,
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: Detroit is hot right now. They are staying at home.
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: They have been hitting a little bit better. Got to
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: give them that. They've won five of their last six games.
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: Their offensive numbers that have improved a bit, but I
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: still think they might be held down by the pitching here.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: Minnesota has played in some low scoring games where recently
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: they've been playing poorly.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: They lost four of their last five.
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: They're coming in from home starting a road trip, which
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: that is a better Uh. That is sometimes a good
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: spot when you leave home and just start a road trip.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: You can be more focused here. But I'm looking at
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: the total here. As I said, TODJ. Bradley is pitching.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: For the Twins.
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: I know his whip isn't very good. One point three
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: to two is elra three point five six is pretty good,
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: although it should be higher based on that whip. He's
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: not quite as good on the road three point six
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: to eight road.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I get all that.
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: I do worry that he had five walks in his
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: last ounting against the White Sox, and he wasn't that
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: good in that Pittsburgh game the game before that where
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: we lost on a first five under in that one.
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: But I still think he's you know, I don't want
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: to say he's like completely out of form here. I
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: know the walks are concerned, but those are pretty good offenses.
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: He's stepping down in class to face Detroit here. He
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: faced them earlier this season. He had one of his
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: best starts of the season against them earlier this year
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: in Minnesota. Went six and a third, ten strikeouts, no walks,
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: one on and run, allowed six hits. He was really
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: good in that outing against Detroit, and he has good
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: numbers generally against Detroit as well. He has held him
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: to a one sixty seven average four to thirty nine ops.
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: It's a small sample though, twenty four at bats they
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: only have one extra base. He had a double from McKinstry,
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: nine strikeouts, one walk, So I think Bradley has a
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: good match up here. So I think he can come
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: back into form here. And nobody's gonna pay attention to
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: Troy Melton, who is pitching for the Tigers year.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: He's actually not bad.
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: He's a young pitcher still, and they've put him in
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: the starting rotation basically because they don't really have any choice.
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: But he was in the starting rotation for a while
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: last year too, and his numbers last year are pretty good.
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: His numbers this year are pretty good between the bullpen
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: and between and starting one point seven point eighty seven
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: whip that's all pretty good.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Actually, he's only made starts this year. My mistake.
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: Last year he made a bunch of relief appearances. His
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate wasn't good last year. I know he's not
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: really a strikeout pitcher, but he's been pretty capable man,
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: and he's going deep into these outings. Actually, he hasn't
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: pitched at home yet. He's only made roads starts so far,
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: and it hasn't really been that easy. Like he had
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: a deep outing against the White Sox, another one against Tampa.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: Those are not easy offenses to face, and Baltimore all
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: on the road and he allowed no more in the
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: touring runs than any of them. Has a low hit rate,
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, And yes, I know his strikeout rate
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: is not good, but Melton has been pretty good. And
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: he also has done well against Minnesota in the past.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: It's a small sample.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Four at bats, a lot of their guys haven't even
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: seen him, but the row for four off and with
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: no strikeouts and no walks, so he's got a clean
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: sheet against them. I like that he's going deep into
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: these outings and these bats that haven't seen him.
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: Seem to tend to struggle against him a little bit.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: So I like it. First five under in twins Tigers here,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: Let me see if we can find it here. Let
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: me look for Melton there.
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: It is Hi, the FAQ, where are you Melton there?
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: The money is indicating on the under pretty strongly here.
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: Fifty six percent of tickets on the over, sixty two
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the under. Full game is
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: eight and a half. I just don't want the bullpens
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: involved because they're not good bullpens. So that's the way
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: I'm doing it. The money is also coming in on Detroit,
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: for what that's worth. They're about minus one thirty here.
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: Seventy four percent of tickets are on Minnesota, fifty three
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the Tigers. So do with
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: that info what you want. But I like the under
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: first five there. That's gonna be another play, all right.
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: Yankees and Cleveland. Unfortunately, the Yankees wound up winning an
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: extra innings yesterday even though they were losing the game late.
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: So Cleveland blowing that game, maybe Cleveland will be a
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: little bit hung over here. Yankees are still probably gonna
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: take Cleveland seriously because Cleveland played them well yesterday. Cleveland
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: beat them two out of three in New York like
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: a week ago. So I don't think the Yankees are
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: gonna be unfocused here. This is TBS and Prime. Here
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: is where this game is. Yankees did use a lot
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: of relief pitchers though the game went into extra innings.
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: They use seven guys out of the bullpen. That's not good.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: Cleveland also used quite a few. They use five these
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: bullpens are both mediocre. Yankees are twelveth Cleveland at fourteenth,
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: but I would not want to trust these bullpens given
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: the lack of rest that they have right now. Yankees
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: are number two in offense, Cleveland is way worse than
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: that of twenty six. Yankees clearly have the better offense
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: here and they have the better starting pitcher here, obviously.
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: Garrett Cole's pitching for the Yankees. He's been good so
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: far in his return from injury to Era point eight
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: nine Whip. He has a zero roady ray so far,
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: only one start, but it was his best start, shut
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: out with ten strikeouts against Kansas City. He actually just
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: faced Cleveland, though, and that was his worst start of
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: the season easily. I gave up three bombs, four and runs,
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: six hits and five and a third.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: I know home runs are fluky.
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: But two strikeouts, one walk. He wasn't good in that
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: outing and Cleveland just saw him. So that might help
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's bats a little bit. And believe it or not,
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: Cole does not have good numbers against Cleveland. They have
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: ninety nine at bats against him, nineteen strikeouts, twelve walks,
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: two sixty three average eight fifty seven ops, so Cleveland
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: is one of the offenses that can actually do damage
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: against him. For whatever reason, Slay Chacone is pitching for Cleveland,
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: He's not good four point nine two ERA, one point
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: four to three whip that's not very good. He's good
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: at home though, ish four point one to nine home hera,
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: so he is better at home. He just faced the Yankees,
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: so the Yankees offense might have a little bit of
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: an advantage here as well because they just saw him.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: But he pitched well. He went six innings, gave up
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: one on run, four hits, four strikeouts, one walk, and
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Cleveland somehow managed to not win that game.
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: Because their offense sucks. But Chacone he actually does well
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees. That was not his only start against them.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: They have thirty six at bats against him, not a
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: huge sample, but still decent, sixty two strikeout walk ratio
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: two twenty two average, six eighty ops. So Slay Chaconi
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: actually has the better matchup numbers in this game here.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: Would we dare actually go with Cleveland here?
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think I kind of have to lean
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: that way a little bit. They're an underdog at home here.
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: Yankees probably paying a little bit of a price for
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: them with coal, they're minus one thirty something.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Here looks fairly easy to play the Yankees.
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: Although we have ninety one percent of the tickets ninety
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: three percent of the cash on Cleveland. I don't think
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's the public side here, Like, do you really think
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: the public is going against the Yankees and Cole and
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: going with Chacony. I highly doubt that, So I think
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: maybe Cleveland is worth a look.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: But I think.
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: You know, an over might be worth a look here
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: if you go full game on this and include the bullpens.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: Because Chaconi is just not good, so there's a chance
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: he gives up runs here. Even though the Yankees are
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: not as good offensively on the road. Cole doesn't have
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: good matchup numbers here. Eight and a half is the
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: total here, sixty four percent of tickets, ninety five percent
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the over.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: So do with that information what you want.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: I could see the arguments fort I think there are
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: there are arguments for an under too, though you could argue, well,
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Cole is still a good pitcher and Chaconi has good
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: You could argue for an under if you're gonna go under.
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: I would go first five though, because the bullpens are
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: just totally unrested there.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna go over, I would go full game
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: with it.
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: All right, Philadelphia and Toronto, these teams did play yesterday.
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia won, not a shock. I said that I thought
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: they would with Sanchez up against. I don't even know
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: who pitched for Toronto, Oh yeah, Patrick Korman. Philadelphia used
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: two relief pitchers, Toronto used three. I think Philadelphia has
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen, even though they're ranked lower in whip
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: Toronto's ten Philadelphia thirteen, But Philadelphia's got the better ERA
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: A little bit more rested here too.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has been poor offensively though.
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: They're tied in twenty sixth with Cleveland and Kansas City.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: And uh, Toronto is not really that much better at twentieth,
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: so we have some offenses that are struggling here. Zach
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: Wheeler is pitching for Philadelphia. He's been really good since
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: coming back. He's right back in form, like he basically
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: picked up right where he left off.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: He's got a two.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: Point three to one ERA point eight three whip home
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: road splits. His ERA is the same both home and away.
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: Doesn't matter. He did throw over one hundred pitches in
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: his last out, and he was a pretty good start
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: against San Diego. I wouldn't be that concerned with that,
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: even though I know that was the first time he
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: threw over one hundred pitches this season. But he's a
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: veteran dude. I mean, he's used to it, so I
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: wouldn't be too concerned by that. His strike cut rates
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: a little bit low here, but not too bad. His
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: hit rate is really low and his walk rate's not
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: bad either, so he's pitched well this season.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: He's got good numbers against Toronto as well.
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: Eighty one at bats twenty one to three strike out
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: walk ratio to twenty two average, five eighty three ozh ps.
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: So Wheeler looks like he has a good match up here.
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: I think he should pitch well. Dylan Cease will be
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: making his return from the injured list for the Blue
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: Jays here. Cease having a good season three point zero
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: five ERA, one point two to one WHIP. He's been
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: good at home two point three to four home ERA.
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: Struggled a bit over his last few outings.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: I know one of them was against the Yankees.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: One of them was against Pittsburgh, but he was walking
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: too many guys in the last few outings. Didn't get
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: injured though, so maybe the injury had something to do
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: with it. It's Pittsburgh start got cut short, I think
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: because of the injury. Overall, he's got a really high
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate, like maybe he might even have the highest
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate in baseball. He hasn't thrown that many innings
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: and he's almost at one hundred strikeouts already in sixty
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: two innings. He's got a low hit rate as well
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: as walk rate is too high. That's like always the
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: case with Cease, though he blows guys away.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: He tends to throw too many pitches and walks too
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: many guys.
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: Against Philadelphia, he hasn't been that great and sixty at
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: bats twelve six strikeout walk ratio to sixty seven average
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: nine hundred ops. So Cease doesn't look like he matches
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: up well. However, what I will say is that a
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: lot of times you have a veteran pitcher like Cease
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: coming back from the injured list. A lot of times
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: they're pumped up and they pitch well because they're excited
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: to get back out there, and the team kind of
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: rallies around them and whatever. So I don't really want
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: to fade a veteran pitcher like Cease coming back here.
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: And the money is actually on Toronto seventy to nine
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on them,
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: they're around minus one ten. I mean, I think if
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: you forced me to pick a side, I think I
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: would still fade Toronto here. I think I would prefer
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: Wheeler Overseas still, based on the matchup numbers. I just
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: showed you the totals really low at seven and a half,
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: so the odds makers are kind of telling you they
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: think this is going to be a pitching duel here,
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: and you know that's not really going out on a limb.
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: Although Cease doesn't have good matchup numbers, but these are
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: two good starters here. I wouldn't really disagree with the
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: under all though we have fifty three percent of tickets
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: fifty two percent of the cash on the under. I
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: don't know how much I love the bullpens, but I
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: don't really hate them either. I don't know a full
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: game under. I see more arguments for that than that,
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: you know, then for an over here, but I don't know.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: I think the best arguments are actually for Philly in
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: that game, but I don't want to do anything with it.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I don't know what's.
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Gonna happen in that game tonight. I have an opinion
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: on it that is not what the market is saying.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis at the Mets. The Mets are returning home
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: from the Pacific Coast, and you know, I talk about.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: That when a team has been gone for a week
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: and they're.
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: Travel across country, that's one of the worst spots you
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: can be in because you gotta get back to home life.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: You can get distracted.
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: It's even worse in baseball when it's a bad team,
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: and I think the Mets.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: Do qualify as a bad team.
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: So this is not a good spot for the Mets here,
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: although they are actually favored because I think Saint Louis
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: is just a massively overrated team. Saint Louis has the
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: better situational angles, though they're starting a road trip. Been
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: coming in from Saint Louis, so I think that's better.
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: They're on a four game win streak. They did just
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: sweep Cincinnati, but I don't think you're gonna be in
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: a letdown spot for sweeping the last place.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Team in your division. Mets still have a lot of
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: name recognition whatever.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: Playing in New York is still a big deal, So
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: I think Saint Louis is in a focused spot here
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: with momentum. Both teams were off yesterday, by the way,
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: for whatever that's worth. Mets have the better bullpen. Mets
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: are ranked fifth. They actually have a pretty good bullpen.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is twentieth, so the Mets have a bullpen edge. Year.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: Hitting wise, the Mets have been awful. They're twenty ninth,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: although at least they're out of the bottom spot thinks
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: to San Diego.
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis is fifteenth, so Saint Louis does have the
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: better offense. Dustin May is pitching for Saint Louis. He's
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: been pitching better recently. His numbers on the season are
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: actually in kind of a range where they're more tolerable
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: four point five to ninety or one point twenty nine whip.
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit better on the road four
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: point two to three road, which doesn't make sense because
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis is a pitcher friendly park.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: But he's actually pitching better recently.
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: He's had a high strikeout rate recently seven plus strikeouts
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: in four of his last five starts. He's allowed no
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: more than foreign runs in any start going all the
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: way back to his first two starts of the season.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: So May is actually pitching better. Unfortunately, you know.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Because the Red Sox had him very briefly, and I'm like,
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: what the fuck are the Red Sox even doing because
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: I thought May was never going to bounce back from
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: his injury issues and whatever. He's still not there, like
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: he's not what he once was, but he is pitching better.
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty easy task here against a weak
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: hitting Mets line.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Up here, and he is a good form.
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: Like I said, against the Mets, He's got twenty six
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: at bats against them. They only have six hitters who
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: have ever faced him, one ninety two average allowed and
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: five ninety two ohps five to five strikeout walk ratio,
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: but four walks are from Soto, so May actually does
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: have good matchup numbers here, so he might actually pitch well.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: He is not the better pitcher out of the two,
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: just on the surface, I think Freddy Peralta is the
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: better pitcher, although Peralta's whip has gotten into higher territory here.
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point six y three RA. His
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: whip is too high though, one point three to two.
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: That's not good. He's been worse at home as well,
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: four point one to nine homey RA. Pitched well last
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: time at Seattle, which was a nice bounce back because
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: he had two bad outings in a row against Miami,
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: although his strikeout rate was still really good over that span.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: But he is kind of trending back in the right direction.
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: He's got a good strike out rang on the season,
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: good hit rate. His walk rate is too high. That's
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: always his problem is the walks. He's got to get
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: that number down against Saint Louis. He has alright numbers
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: here in ninety five at bats two forty two average,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: six poin fifty eight ohps. They've seen a lot of
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: them because he was on Milwaukee for a while, but
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: he's done pretty well against them. Twenty five strikeouts eleven
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: walks isn't great though, too many walks, but overall his
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: numbers pretty good here. So I don't really want to
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: fade Peralta, even though I think if you forced me to.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Pick a side I would lean to Saint Louis here.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: The money's not agreeing, sixty one percent of tickets on
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis, sixty eight percent of the cash on the Mets.
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: I do not agree with that. The Mets are around
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty here. Mets are in a bad spot, dude.
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: Like I said, the return home spot, I don't like that.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: I don't like that spot at all. So I think
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: I would lean slightly towards Saint Louis is the dog here.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: And under makes some sense here as well. The total
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: is low for a reason, it's seven and a half.
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: Then the money looks like it's on the over fifty
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: the over.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: I think it undermakes some sense.
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: Both starting pitchers actually have good matchup numbers here, so
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: I think and undermakes sense. Maybe a first five under
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: if you want to avoid Saint Louis's bullpen, But you
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: have two. Like I said, these are teams that were
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: off yesterday, so you have offenses that might be cooled off.
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: The offensive offense for the Mets might be distracted as
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: well from the return home and.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Travel cross country.
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: Neither bullpen is really that bad and they're both completely arrested,
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: So I think it under makes more sense than anything
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: else in that game.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Actually, yeah, I don't know.
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: I'm torn between Saint Louis and the under in that one,
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: but I'm not gonna do anything with that, is it?
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: Eric Vetti, I'm not sure. I looked at the Braves
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: five games ago and it was a Davis Martin start,
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: so I don't know. He's not pitching yet, so I
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: don't know what they're doing, or I mean, I looked
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: at the White Sox.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Excuse me, the White Sox.
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: Yes, I'm happy the Knicks lost the run line. This
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: is Braves at Chicago here, so at least if you
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: go run line, you.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: Have all nine innings to work with.
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: Here, the White Sox are returning on from a road trip,
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: so that's a negative. They went to Minnesota and Philadelphia again.
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: When a team returns home from the road, a lot
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: of times they're distracted. But I think that's mitigated somewhat
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: by the fact they're playing the team with the best
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: record in baseball. I'm pretty sure the Braves, like, are
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: you really gonna overlook the Braves?
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Probably not. Atlanta could be in a letdown spot too, because.
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: They're coming out a sweep of Pittsburgh. Pretty big weekend
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: series there, although they avoided Paul Skins though, right so
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: they kind of lucked out there. But they won five
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: of their last six games. They won eight of their
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: last ten. But this could be a letdown spot for them.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: I think it's kind of a negative spot for both
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: teams here. No bullpen usage because the teams are off yesterday.
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: Atlanta has the better bullpen. They're number one in both
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: WHIP and ERA.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: White Sox not great at eighteenth, so Atlanta.
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: Has a bullpen advantage. Both offenses are good. Atlanta number three,
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: White Sox number four. Grant Holmes is pitching for Atlanta.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm not really a fan of these numbers.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: Three point eight six e Ra's pretty good, but at
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: one point three to two WHIP isn't that great. He's
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: a little bit worse on the road, but not much
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: for road ERA. He was alright in his last start
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: against Toronto.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know. He's been a little bit shaky and.
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: Not really going deep into a lot of these recent outings.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: He's got too high of a walk rate too. I
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: don't really trust Holmes here. He's got a decent hit rate,
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate is way too high his strikeout rates.
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: You know, Okay, I don't think Holmes is that good
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: against the White Sox. Let me say, uh, they haven't
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: really faced him, so he does have that advantage.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: They're oh for three with a strikeout.
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: Only Akunya, not not the not the Braves, Acunya, Luis
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: on Hellakunya, I don't even know who that is, and
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: Greed Chuck have combined for that over three with a strikeout.
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: So Holmes does have an unfamiliarity yet here at least,
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: and Chicago's going with a bullpen game, which is pretty ugly.
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: Isert is listed as a starter, He's probably only gonna
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: go one to two innings here. He's got a three
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: point two one ERA one point two one whip Carrott.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: You think it's gonna be Fetti coming in after? It
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: might be because again I looked five games back and
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: it was Davis Martin, so I was like, I don't
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: really know what they're doing here. Obviously Martin is not
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: gonna have an opener in front of him. FEddi last
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: pitched on the third, so I think you might be right.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: It might be Fetti. He actually went he actually went
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: five innings of shutout ball last time out against the Mets.
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean I don't trust Fetti. He's got
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: some ugly numbers here, four point nine to four e RA,
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: but one point four to one whip indicates his THERA
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: should be higher than that other brothers. All right, so
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: this is the battle of the brothers then interesting.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I still don't really like Fetti.
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: Feedti's been better at home though, three point eight two
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: homie RA, so he's significantly better at home.
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Atlanta not great.
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: In one hundred and eleven at bats to eighty eight,
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: average allowed, eight thirty five ops, fourteen to twelve starting
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: None of that is really good.
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: So if you're gonna get a bullpen game with FEddi
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: you know, probably going four five innings here or whatever,
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: at least they're gonna try to let him do that,
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: I guess is what they're doing here. Yeah, I mean,
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: I think you're probably right. Atlanta probably should win this game.
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: White Sox look public, which doesn't make any sense to me.
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, I understand the White Sox being public because
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: there's hype on them they're a good offense, but I
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: guess it Landa. Oh, Fetti is listed as a starter,
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: now you got that right? Yeah, all right, yeah, you're correct.
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: He's listed as a starter on the board here now,
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: so yeah, it will be him, but kind of slash
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game. I think if you're gonna play this game,
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: I think you should go action on the White Sox side, though,
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: I think you should specify Holmes must start, but for
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: the White Sox, because they might put an opener in
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: front of Fetti, and I think you could be pretty
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: certain you're gonna get Fetti here at some point, but
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: maybe not to start the game. If you want your
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: bet to still count, I think you should specify Holmes
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: must start, but you don't care who starts for the
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: White Sox. I think that's probably what I would do,
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: unless you think they're gonna switch to Davis Martin here,
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: but I don't think so.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: I think he might pitch tomorrow.
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's about minus one fifty something here, ninety four percent
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: of the tickets, eighty five percent of the cash on
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: the White Sox money looks like it's indicating towards Atlanta.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: I still don't buy that the White Sox are actually
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: a public side here though that makes no sense to me,
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: and Money is hitting the over here. The totals at nine,
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: so it's a pretty high total. Oddsmaker's kind of thinking
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: that there's gonna be some offense in this game here,
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: which might be right, you know, I think the better
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: way to play this because Holmes is just kind of
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: a mystery here. I think Atlanta team total over is
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: probably the best way to play this because I think
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: they could definitely get runs. I know they're actually better
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: on the road too, Atlanta. They actually hit better on
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: the road than at home, believe it or not. So
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: I think that is probably the approach in this game,
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: Atlanta team total over. That would probably be what I
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: would recommend you. I think they could definitely get runs
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: off of Fetti plus whatever relievers come in for the
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: White Sox here. Fetti Mikolas got the job done yesterday. Man,
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: he did well enough for Washington to win that game. Yeah,
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: that was like the one spot where you might want
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: to play Micholas, although he had to go full game
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: on it, and I never would have done that with Washington.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: I never want to include their bullpen, all right, Texas
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. These teams were off yesterday as well. Kansas
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: City just started the road trip that they're finishing now.
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: They started it in Texas and they got swept. So
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: Kansas City has a little bit of a quick revenge
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: angle here maybe.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: But they're returning home from the road. They just had
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: three roads series in Texas, Cincinnati, Minnesota. Now the returning
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: home from that, you know, I talk about this, when
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: a team returns home from the road.
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: It's a negative spot. Typically you have to get back
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: to home life. It's not a good spot to me in.
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: But again that might be negated somewhat by the fact
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: that they got swept at Texas to start the road trip,
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: so they may not overlook Texas here, even though Kansas
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: City is a bad team in a bad spot. Texas
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: was off yesterday as well. They just beat Cleveland. They're
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: hot right now Texas. They've won seven of their last
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: nine games, including beating Cleveland ten nothing the last time out.
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: Although Texas's offense is not really that good no bullpen usage.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know why I'm looking at that.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: Texas has the better bullpen, though by a lot, the
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: ranked six than bullpen Kansas City's twenty ninth and Texas
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: ERA is almost two runs better than Kansas City. This
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: is a huge bullpen advantage to Texas year, even though
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: they're both rested.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: Offensively, neither team has done well.
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: Texas is twenty first, Kansas City twenty six, so Texas
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: has a little bit of an advantage there too. On
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: the surface, I think Texas has the better starter here
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: as well, with Nathany Vivaldi. He's got a four point
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: one ERA, but his one point one to eight whip
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: is pretty solid, like his ther should probably be a
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: little bit better than that. He's been good on the road,
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: which is kind of weird because Texas is a pitcher
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark, but he's got three point eight to eight
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: rodio race.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit better on the road.
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: He did just get knocked around a bit by Saint
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: Louis in his last downy, but his command members are
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: still there seven to one strike out walk ratio, so
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's like totally out of form here,
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: but his last two starts were a little bit worse. Overall,
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: he's got good numbers. He's got a strike out rate
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: right around one per inning, hit rate lower than that,
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: and walk rate is low as well, but he's allowed
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: fourteen home runs, so the long ball.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: Has been kind of an issue for him.
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: But other than that, he's got solid numbers otherwise, and
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: he's a solid pitcher. He's been around for a while.
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, we know, I can't find Kansas City here.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: He's he's got numbers that aren't that good against Kansas
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: City though. In seventy six at bats, seventeen to three
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio is good, but a two seventy
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: six average eight fifty six ops allowed, that's not good.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: So this might be a bad matchup for Reavaldi here.
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: Steven Colek is pitching for the Royals. He was on bereavement,
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: but I don't think he's missing a start here. I
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: think he's on schedule here and he's been good at
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: home one point eight home he ra. I don't know
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: if the bereaveman is gonna be like an distraction for
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: him or anything thing, But he pitched well. Uh six
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: days ago, he pitched in Cincinnati, hit her friend the ballpark,
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: and he pitched well there.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good on the season. Low hit rate,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: low walk right.
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is low though doesn't strike out a
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: lot of guys. I think Evaldi just has better stuff
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: than colect but Coleck has been pretty good.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Texas, though, are not good.
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: Thirty seven at bats three seventy eight average allowed, eleven
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: oh one oh ps, five strikeouts, two walks. So I
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: don't really like what I'm seeing with these matchup numbers
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: from either starter or here.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, we would we dare go over in this game. Uh.
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: The crazy thing is the oddsmakers are really kind of
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: putting these totals really high in Kansas City.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: They've brought the walls in and E Evaldi colec games
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: at nine to nine and a half here on the total,
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: that's crazy. The money is indicating pretty heavily on the
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: over as well, and eighty nine percent of tickets on
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: the under ninety two percent of the cash on the over.
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think I quite want to do it,
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: because you do. You do still have two pretty good
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: starting pitchers here, but their matchup numbers are bad, so
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: I can see the argument for the over, and that
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: does look like that's where the.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: Money is going.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't want to do it, though, especially over that
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: high of a total. But then again, odsmakers are kind
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: of signaling with a total that high. Kansas City also
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: appears to be public, which I would not buy that
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: at all. Seventy six percent of ticket, seventy four percent
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Kansas City, there's no way that
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: the public is actually on Kansas City. Minus one twenty
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: or so is the price on Texas. I'd probably lean
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: Texas here. I think Evaldi he does have better matchup
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: numbers two, even though they're not great, but I think
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: he's just the better pitcher there. So that's what I
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: think about that. I'll be right back and then I'll
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: talk about the rest of these games. I have one
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: more play in baseball. Give me a second, all right.
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: Our next game is Cubs at Colorado. Cubs are coming
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: in from home, so they're starting a road trip. Could
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: be a focused spot, possibly bounced back spot, because the
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: Cubs haven't been playing great recently.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: They just lost to San Francisco.
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: Colorado is staying at home off of getting swept by Milwaukee,
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: so both teams seems like a focused spot for both
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: teams to me here. Colorado, well, yeah, neither team played yesterday,
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: so there's no bullpen usage here. Colorado's bullpen is bad
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: though the Cubs are ranked eighth and bullpen Colorado is
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: where are they.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: Twenty six? A huge bullpen disparity.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: In fact, Colorado is the worst bullpenny ra so Cubs
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: have a huge bullpen edge here. Cubs are number ten
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: on offense, the Rockies are seventeen, so the Cubs have
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: the advantage there too. Colin Ray is pitching for the Cubs.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been.
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: Great four point five ninety Ray one point three to
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: five whip. He's been way way worse on the road
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: six point one to nine ROADI ra now, he's not
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: an extreme fly ball pitcher though, so he might do
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: okay in course field.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: And I looked.
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: I think the last time he pitched at Corsefield was
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: two years ago, and he actually did well in that start,
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: although that was two years ago. But he profiles as
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: a guy that can pitch okay in course field, just
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: because he's not really a huge fly you know, not
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: a huge fly ball pitcher, not a huge home run
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: pitcher here.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: But he's struggled recently still though he's.
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: Been allowing too many walks, not going that deep into
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: some of these games. I don't know, not really great
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: stuff here, more than one hit a upper ending on
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: the season, low strike out rate, kind of a high
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: walk rate, so I don't really like these numbers here. However,
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: against Colorado I think.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: He does do well. Yeah.
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: They only have four hitters who have faced him though,
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: so not a huge sample to look at here. The
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: only extra Mase hit is a double from Julian. They're
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: one for eleven, two strikeouts, one walk. Uh oh ninety
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: one average is what that is? Three forty eight ops.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: Ray might do well here, He's pretty unfamiliar to them,
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: and he does profile okay from pitching a course Tomoyuki
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: Sugano is pitching for the Rockies.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: He's he's been alright.
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: Uh three point nine to eighty RA one point two
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: six really not bad considering he has to pitching course
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: field half the time. He's been worse at home though,
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: of course four point five home ye RA. It's not
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: easy to pitch in this stadium. But he's done alright.
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he's been kind of a serviceable pitcher.
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low strikeout rate though, but his
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: hit rate and his walk rate really aren't that bad.
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: He is kind of a fly ball pitcher, though, so
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: he's allowing some home runs. Here, numbers against the Cubs
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: are actually not bad, and twenty at bats strike out
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: walk ratio two under an average five thirty eight ops.
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I would trust it, but I
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: mean I could see the argument for an under in
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: this one. The totals twelve and a half, which is ridiculous.
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: It's coors Field, but you know, money coming in on
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: the over eighty three percent of tickets on the under,
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: ninety five percent of the cash on the over, first
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: five under, I think you could make an argument for it.
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: I think both starting pitchers might actually do better than
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: people think here. I would not go full game under
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: because Rockies bullpen it's just awful, but I think first.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Five under does make some sense here.
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: The Cubs are also around minus one fifty ninety percent
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: of tickets ninety two percent of the cash on Colorado.
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: I don't really have an opinion on the side there.
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: Cubs are the better team, but I don't know. I
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: mean that game just I don't have a good.
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Read on it. Houston had Anaheim.
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: Anaheim returned home yesterday and Houston was able to beat them,
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: but it took extra innings to do it. Anaheim could
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: be in a bounced back spot after that, because when
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: you return home sometimes if you don't play well, sometimes
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: you bounce back. But it was a close game yesterday.
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: Anaheim used five relief pitchers. Their bullpen has not been good.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: Houston used four. Houston's bullpen has been a little bit
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: better recently. They were really bad for so long, but
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: they're twenty fourth now, which isn't too bad. Anaheim twenty seventh.
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: These bullpens are both pretty close right now. Neither are
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: good though. Houston is number seven in offense. Anaheim is eighteen,
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: so Houston has a bit of an edge there. Kaiwai
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: Tang is pitching for Houston. I still don't know what
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: to think about him. He's got good numbers. A lot
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: of it was out of the bullpen, though, three point
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: six ERA, one point one to seven whip. He's been
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: good on the road two point five to seven roadyra.
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: But there are some indicators that this is not gonna last.
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: Like if you look at his longer outings, he's walked
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: at least three guys and three out of the four
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: he's been allowing some runs recently, he only had one
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: strikeout last time against Pittsburgh. I don't know, man, I
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: think this is gonna unravel a little bit for Tang here.
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: These numbers are really not that great on the season.
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is good, his strike out rate is
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: all right, but his walk rate is way too high.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: So the walks are definitely a problem for him.
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: But maybe he matches up okay here because Anaheim hasn't
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: really seen him much.
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: They only have eight of bats against him.
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: Only Peraza has a hit against him, one strikeout, no walks,
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: one twenty five average two fifthy ops.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: So maybe he does pitch well here.
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: But I think Walbert Uranium I'd actually be the more
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: talented pitcher here. Urania has been alright in what I
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: think is his rookie season. He's got a two point
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: six to eighty RA. His whip is too high though,
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: one point three to three, so that indicse the THERA
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: should be higher. But he's been good at home two
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: point one to two. Homie Ray pitched pretty well last
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: time out against the Rockies. He's got to get his
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: walk number down, though the walks are the concern with
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: him here. He's got a decent strike out rate, a
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: good hit rate, it's low, but his walk rate is
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: too high. And he is more ground ball oriented than
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: flyball oriented, which is not bad really, although sometimes that
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: does tend to mask the amount of walks that you're
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: giving up. He hasn't been that good against Houston, but
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: it's only in seven at bats. The only have six
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: hitters who have faced him two eighty six average allowed
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: though nine to twenty nine OPS, one to three strike
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio, So Urania hasn't been that good against them.
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: All of that was earlier this season. He actually pitched
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: against Houston twice to start the season.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: I think both were out of the bullpen. He gave
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: up now runs one of the starts.
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: Houston got six unearned runs against him, which is crazy.
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: But I think Urania might actually pitch okay here, I
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: think I might lean towards Anaheim here. I mean, it's
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: potentially a bounce back second game back home, maybe just
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: first five.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe just go with Urania and I'll pitch teng.
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: But the money is coming in against that sixty eight
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on Anaheim, eighty one percent of the
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: cash on Houston. I have no idea why Anaheim would
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: be a public side.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: It makes no sense. Houston at minus one twenty. I
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: don't know. Should Tang really be favored like that on
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: the road, I don't know about that. And the money
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: is coming in on the over as well, for what
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: that's worth at eight and a half. If you go
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: over in that game, obviously go full game with it
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: because the bullpen's are awful. So that's what I would
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: say about that, But I think maybe a slight lean
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: to Anaheim verse five. Don't have a good read for it.
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: The next game up will be my last play, though,
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: and we are going to go with Cincinnati on the
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: run line in the first five minus a half run
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: at minus one oh five. You could go full game
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: on this if you want to, but their bullpen is
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: clearly horrible, Like Cincinnati has a massive bullpen disadvantage here,
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: so I think you have to go first five. But
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers know this. They know that the big advantage
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati has is the starting pitching here, so they're juicing
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: that price way up on Cincinnati. They're like minus one
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: sixty I think on the money line in just the
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: verse five. But we'll go with laying the half run here,
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: and yes, it means they have to be winning at
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: that point, but I think they could do it. These
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: teams did play yesterday. San Diego used four relief pitchers,
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati used two. Cincinnati's bullpen is still totally untrustworthy, though
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: San Diego is number four in bullpen. Cincinnati's dead last
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: thirtiethough the ERA is better than Colorado's, but they have
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: the worst whip. They're awful hitting whyse San Diego has
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: been awful their last thirtieth and Cincinnati is middle of
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: the pack at sixteen.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: So we do get the better offense here.
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: But I think we have a big starting pitching advantage
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: here with Chase Burns. Who else We're gonna go with him?
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: Man two point zero five ERA, point nine to five whip.
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: He's been really good on the road one point eight roadra,
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: which makes sense because the Reds Stadium is hit her friendly.
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: Put him in a pitcher friendly ballpark here. I think
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: he should do well. He was six, so he had
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: his last start pushback, but he pitched well anyway against
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: Kansas City, so he's continuing to pitch well. He's allowed
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: more than tour and runs only one time this season.
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate, really low hit rate,
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: and his walk rate is slightly high, but the.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: Rest of his numbers are overcoming that.
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: And San Diego's never faced him before, so we have
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: an extra advantage here with a talented young pitcher who
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: he's facing a bad offense and this offense hasn't.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: Seen him before.
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: That should be an advantage to the pitcher because the
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: offense has to try to figure him out.
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: So I like all that. Lucas Gillledo's pitching for San Diego.
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: He has not been good. Four point eight six ERA,
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: one point seven to four whip is awful. He's been
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: better at home. He has a zero home he RA,
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: but that was only one start. He did shut out
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: the A's at home, but he had five walks in
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: that outing. So there's really not a lot to like
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: about what jill Liedo has done so far. He's got
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: more walks than strikeouts in sixteen two thirds innings so far.
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: None of this is very good.
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: He's not a good pitcher, and against Cincinnati he does
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: not have good numbers and forty two at bats, seventeen strikeouts,
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: seven walks, ten average one thousand and three ops.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: So we will go with Cincinnati run line first. Five.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know why the money's coming in on San Diego.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: I do not agree with that. San Diego I believe
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: won yesterday. By the way, Yeah, they won yesterday. They're
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: staying at home.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: Maybe a little bit of a bounce back here for
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati as well, even though Cincinnati is not a great team.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: I know, but their biggest disadvantage is the bullpen, and
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: we're taking that out of the equation. I think they
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: have a huge starting pitching edge year. But I don't
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: like the money here. Sixty percent of tickets eighty six
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on San Diego, Cincinnati's around minus
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: won twenty something a full game, like I said, and
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: much higher than that in the first five for a
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: reason though. Totals also seven and a half with money
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: coming in towards the under do with that info what
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: you want, but first five Cincinnati run line is the
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: play there. Washington at San Francisco ESPN Unlimited. San Francisco
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: was in a really bad spot yesterday. They return home
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: from the road, having to travel all the way back
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: to the Pacific coast, and Washington was only coming in
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: from Arizona. So it was a terrible spot for San
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: Francisco and San Francisco is coming off two straight extra
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: inning games, including the Sunday night game, which went into
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: extra innings. It was an awful spot, so bad that
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: they lost to Miles Mikolas.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: There you go. I still don't think San Francisco's offense
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: is good. They had three games where they just totally
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: exploded in course field, once against Milwaukee and once in Wrigley.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: But I don't I'm not buying it. I don't think
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is that good offensively. Three games in a
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: row they haven't been, so keep that in mind. Could
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: be a bounce back spot for them here, though, because
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: when a team returns home from the road and they
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: don't do well, a lot of times they do bounce
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: back in the next game. San Francisco used two relief pitchers.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: They only Us Smith for three pitches yesterday Dylan Smith.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: Washington used four guys out of the bullpen. Washington has
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: the lesser bullpen here. They're number twenty three, although San
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: Francisco is number twenty five, but their era is still better.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: Neither bullpen has been that good, though, but San Francisco's
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: got the better era and they're more rested. Washington's number
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: five in offense, the Giants are number twelve, but like
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: I said, I'm not really buying it. I think they're
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: gonna fall off here, and I actually like Washington starting
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: pitching better here with Andrew Alvarez making a start here.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: He made five starts last year and he's made one
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: start so far this year, and he's actually been pretty decent.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: His walk rate was way too high last year, but
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: he looks like he's kind of getting that under control now.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point five to four ERA this
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: year and a one point two to three whip most
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: of it out of the bullpen. I'm making like long
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: relief appearances. But I think he's a decent pitcher. He's
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: got a zero road ra which is solid, did fairly
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: well in his last time out against Miami. He hasn't
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: gone deeper than four and two thirds innings so far, though,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: so they might have him on a little bit of
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: a leash here. I don't know how long he's gonna go,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: so that could be a problem because Washington's bullpen is bad.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 4: So if they're gonna pull him somewhere around the fifth inning,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: you got to deal with Washington's bullpen after that, which
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: isn't great. Alvarez is allowed, you're with the one hipper
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: inning more than one strike up r inning in. His
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: walk rates not too bad, so he's got good numbers overall.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: San Francisco has twelve at bats against him, not a
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: big sample, but most of their batters have faced him.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: Three strikeouts, no walks, two fifty average five eighty three ops.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: So I think Alvarez could actually pitch well here. He's
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: gonna have to face Adrian Houser, who is not having
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: a good season for San Francisco. Five point four to
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: ninety RA, one point five eight whip really bad. He's
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: been worse at home six point nine to seven homey
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: RA makes no sense because it's a pitcher friendly ballpark here.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: He's been roughed up recently to three straight outings where
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: he didn't make it five innings.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: He's been bad.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: He's got a high walk rate, his strikeout rates really low,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: his hit rate is high. He's allowed a fair amount
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: of home runs too. He's been pretty bad overall. His
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: numbers against Washington or sort of average in forty two
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: at bats to sixty two average, seven forty five ops,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: six y five strike out walk ratio.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really want to trust Howser.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: I know it looks like a bounce back spot for
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: San Francisco here, but I think Washington first five is
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: probably the way to look at this game. I think
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: Alvarez can outpitch Houser here, and Alvarez should be in
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: there for most of the verse five innings. At least
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: you kind of avoid Washington's bullpen by doing it first five.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is a favorite, They're probably a favorite first
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: five as well. They're around minus one to twelve here,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: minus one fourteen.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: Whatever. The money looks like it is agreeing with Washington.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: Fifty three percent of tickets on San Francisco, sixty nine
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Washington. Money also coming in
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: towards the over pretty strongly in that game over eight
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: and a half. I don't know if I probably wouldn't
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: disagree with that. I mean, you got bullpens that I
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: don't really trust here. Maybe both starters are un trustworthy,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: so there are probably more components to that that would
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: indicate towards an over, But I think first five Washington
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: makes the most sense, and Washington they're good at hitting
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: on the road, too, so keep that in mind, and
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: then we have Milwaukee and the A's in Las Vegas
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: and a total even higher in tonight's game because if
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: you didn't see last night's game, they scored twenty nine
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: runs in last night's game and it went twelve innings.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: There were a lot of extra innings runs and almost
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: every guy that reached base scored, so like they scored
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: twenty five. Yeah, I think it was twenty nine runs
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: they scored, but I think it was on like thirty
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: three hits or something like that, so it was a
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: really high like run to hit ratio.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: But still, twenty nine runs is ridiculous.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: And one thing that I forgot to mention is I
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: think this is a Triple A stadium, but it's also
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: in high elevation.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: For whatever reason in Las Vegas.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: It's not like cors Field, but I think it's like
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: three thousand something.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: Feet at elevation.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: So keep that in mind. And yesterday's game went way
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: over the total. So does that make me want to
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: go over again here? I don't know, I mean maybe,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: and went into extra innings and a lot of the
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers came in. The A's used six guys out
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen Milwaukee used six as well, so we
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: have some unrested bullpens here. Milwaukee is the better bullpen,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: the ranked eleventh and they have a good bullpen ERA.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: The A's are number twenty two, not very good hitting wise.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: The A's are eighth and actually tied with Milwaukee. They're
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: tied in eighth. For the pitchers here we have Robert
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: Gasser pitching for the Brewers. He hasn't been that good.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: Four point seven to three ERA and one point four
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: to three WHIP. Those are not great numbers. Home road
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: split's not really that significantly. Slightly better on the road,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: but he's only made three starts so far and his
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: last one was good, but it was against San Francisco,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: so I don't know how much weight to put into that.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is too high right now.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: His strike got rate and hit rate er okay, but
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: it's also a really small sample. But one problem with
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: Gaser is his fly ball rate is really pretty extreme.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: So that is not what you want in a ballpark
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: like this, So that is not a good indicator that
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: Gaser allows a lot of fly balls.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: Look at last year. That seemed to kind of be
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: the case. Last year too.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: He hasn't really pitched that much though, so we don't
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: have a huge sample here, and the A's have never
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: faced him, so maybe that's a little bit of an
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: advantage to him because they haven't seen him. But I'm
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: not sure the gasler is really gonna do well here.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: J T. Ginn is pitching for the A's.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: He's had a good season two point seven to four
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: ERA one point oh wait whip. He's been good so far,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: but he's been worse at home three point nine to
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: six home e RA. And I know that's in Sacramento,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: but this stadium is very similar to that, so I
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: think that's not a good sign that he doesn't pitch
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: as well in stadiums similar to this. Although he's not
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: an extreme flyball pitcher, he's pretty even with the ground
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: balls and fly balls, so he does set up.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: A little bit better to pitch in an environment like this.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: He pitched well last time out against the Cubs, was
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: pretty good the start before that too against the Yankees.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty good recently. Actually, his last four full
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: starts have actually been really good. He had one kind
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: of bad outing where he got pulled early against San Diego,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: but other than that, he's been good recently.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: His strike out rates not that high. That's not really
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: what he does.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is low, but his walk rate is
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: too high, so the walks are the biggest concern for him.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: His numbers gets a milwauk, You're okay. In twenty six
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: at bats two thirty one average seven A fifty six
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: obs is like right around that average there where I
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: look at seven fifty as kind of a Mendoza line there,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: ten to four strike out walk ratio, you know, I
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: mean you could look towards an over here. I mean,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: the bullpens are both in bad shape after yesterday.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: Man. You know, I don't know if I love either pitcher. Here.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: Money is kind of indicating towards the under here. The
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: totals thirteen, which is ridiculous, but it is that high
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: for a reason. Sixty four percent of tickets, fifty nine
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over though, And I
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: don't know if I'd really want to do it, because
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: when you see a fifteen to fourteen final score that's
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: what it was last night, fifteen fourteen. When you see that,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: like the public is just gonna come in on an
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: over after that thing. Oh my god, this Vegas Stadium
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: is ridiculous. Milwaukee won fifteen to fourteen, totally ridiculous, and
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: it is.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: But when you see a game like that and the
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: bullpens get used like that and whatever, a lot of
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: times that kind of dominoes into the next game. You
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: don't even need it to be anywhere close to that
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: high scoring to get this thing over this time. I
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: don't know. I think it over kind of makes sense
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: in this one. The money's indicated towards Milwaukee for whatever reason.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: A is seventy four percent of ticket, seventy percent of
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: the cash, They're around minus one ten. They look like
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: a public side here, which that doesn't make sense to me.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: You think Milwaukee would be a public side here. I
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: don't know.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't have a good read on this game,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: so do with it what you want. But yeah, I
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: got nothing on this game.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: Really.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: I still think it over might be the way to
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: play it. But first play with Seattle Mariner's money line,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: all right, even though I'm worried that the market read
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: is not really agreeing with me on that, or actually
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: it looks like it is now. I don't know who knows, man,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: I'm just doing my handicapping, man. I just think there's
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: a big pitching edge there. All right, let's look at WNBA. Unfortunately,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: WNBA Cup action, I don't have any plays here. I
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: know I'm skipping the WNBA a lot here. I think
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: I was right about two of the three games last night,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: maybe all three, I don't even remember. On the side
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, ESPN has Atlanta and Chicago. Chicago has not
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: been playing well in Cup play right now. I think
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: they only have one Cup win so far. I don't
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 4: know what that means as far as like when they
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: could potentially get eliminated. They haven't been playing well recently.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: They just got blown out by Toronto on the road.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: It was only a single game on the road, So
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: Chicago might play better here back at home. They're not
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: going to overlook at Lanta. Atlanta has been a good team.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: Chicago coming off an embarrassing loss to an expansion team.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's coming off a pretty satisfying thirty two point win
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: over Washington. I know Washington is not a good team,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: but still, when you beat anybody by that much, you
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: gotta be feel pretty good about yourselves going out on
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: the road here, I would lean towards Chicago plus the
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: points here. This is gonna be a really interesting game though,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: because this is the Angel Reese battle. If you remember,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: I mentioned that Angel Reese was on Chicago last year,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: which I think was her only season so far, or
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 4: maybe the last two seasons whatever. Now she's on Atlanta,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: So I don't know which way that goes though, Like
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: does Reese want to play well against her former team?
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: And I guess she does, But I don't know if
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: that's gonna be enough. Man Chicago might I don't know.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: I want to get back at them too. I think
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: the spot's a little bit better for Chicago. Atlanta's laying
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: eight and a half on the road here. They've gone
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: up from six and a half to eight and a half,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: cash on Atlanta. They do look like a public side.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: The money has come in on them early. But I
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: think I would lean towards taking the points there. I
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: don't want to do it. Dallas and Minnesota is a
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: good game, and it is kind of interesting. Minnesota is
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: still without call here, but they've been playing really well anyway.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: They've won seven games in a row. They just beat
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: Seattle which is whatever. I think they're undefeated and cup play.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: Seattle's not a good team though. Now they did actually
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: win at Dallas already. If you looked at that game, uh,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: Dallas I think was a three and a half point
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: home favorite in that game, and now Minnesota is like
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: five and a half I think at home here, So
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: that seems like a bit of an adjustment, you know,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: maybe an over adjustment, like if Dallas was three and
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 4: a half at home, you think this game would be
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: like closer to like maybe Minnesota one one and a
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: half here. Five and a half seems crazy. And if
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: you dig into that matchup here, Minnesota shot really well.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: They shot sixty percent from the field forty six percent
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: from three. Dallas was only forty six percent and twenty
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: nine percent, respectively. And Dallas had more field goal attempt
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: So Dallas actually kind of outplayed Minnesota in some ways
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: in this game, although Minnesota did still out rebound them.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: But it looks like the biggest outliers they were the shooting.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: I think that might mean that Minnesota might shoot worse here,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: it might mean the Dallas might shoot better here. It's
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a road revenge angle here, Dallas
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: has been playing well, even though they're young, kind of
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: inexperienced team.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: They've won four games in a row and six of seven.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: They just beat LA.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: But they're coming into Minnesota from LA, which is not
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: that easy of a travel spot. But I would lean
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: Dallas in this game. I think Dallas is not getting
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: the money though. It looks like the public is taking
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 4: Dallas thinking Minnesota at five and a half is kind
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: of crazy, which I think it is too.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: You gotta look see if they're injuries, I guess, because I.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: Don't see why Minnesota would be five and a half
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: here if Dallas was three and a half at home
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: when they played earlier this year, Dallas ninety one percent
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash. So it
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: looks like the public is taking the points with Dallas here,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 4: thinking this is going to be a competitive game and
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: you do not want public underdogs like Dallas.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: I will tell you that. Yeah, I mean, there are
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: some injuries here. I don't know how. I mean.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: Obviously, we already know Colliers out for Minnesota. She's been
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: out since the playoffs last year, so that's not a change.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: Sims is out for the Wings.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: That doesn't look like a big deal either. I have
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: no idea, dude, I don't know why the line is
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: like that. I think I would lead towards Dallas plus
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 4: the points there. But I'm not playing these WNBA games.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: You're tailing Seattle, all right, let's get it done, man.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: I found out about minus one fifteen, so the price
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: was all right. And then we have Phoenix and Golden State.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: Phoenix is playing better recently. Golden State has been playing
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: worse recently though. I think Golden State's a pretty strong
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 4: team though. I think they're on the way up. But
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: they did just lose to Minnesota and Vegas in close
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: games on Those are two good teams. Those are two
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: of the best teams in the league. So I'm not
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: gonna blame them for losing. They've had really really difficult
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: games recently in the last three games and played Vegas.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: Twice in Minnesota.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: That's not easy, so playing Phoenix is a step down
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: in class. But they're coming home from the road, although
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: they were only on the road Thursday Saturday, so that's
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: not that big a deal. But returning home from two
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 4: big games, they're playing a Phoenix team they already beat
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: at home ninety five to seventy nine, so they already
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: easily beat Phoenix at home earlier, so they might overlook
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: Phoenix for that reason, so the spot doesn't look that good.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: Phoenix is already on the Pacific coast and they're coming
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: in from Portland. They had some wins against Seattle in
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: Portland that I think we'll just give them some momentum.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: Those are not big wins against teams that aren't really
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: that good, so I think that might just continue their
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: momentum into this, so I would leave Phoenix. I think
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: Phoenix is not as bad as the record looks, although
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: Osbegers are telling your Golden State's the better team.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: They're eight and a half eight here minus eight or so.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: But it's a low total, and with a low total
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: like that, it makes more sense to play an underdog
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: points a little bit more out a premium.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: I think I would take the points with Phoenix there,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: so I think I lean to all three underdogs.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: And then we have NHL Carolina and Vegas Game four.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: I don't want to play this game, though Vegas is
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: better at home, so we do have that. Vegas has
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: had three goals in the last two games taken off
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: the board by for various infractions. One was off sides.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 4: I think two were goaltender interference. I think the one
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: two games ago might have been an incorrect call.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean the other two were probably not.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: But Vegas, I mean, I don't know, man, they should
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: have more easily won that game last time out. They
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 4: were winning four to nothing and they blew that game, dude,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 4: and Carolina switched goalies, dude. So I don't even know
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: who who Caroline is putting in net here. But that's
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 4: not good when a team switches goalies. I'm gonna tell
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: you right now. They took Anderson out and if they're
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 4: gonna put him back in, that.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: Could kind of hurt his confidence. Man. So I don't
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: like that. We don't even know who they're Who are
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: they starting?
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: I have no idea, Garrett, who are they starting in
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: net I have no idea because they're either gonna go
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: with and Anderson, who might have his confidence shot after
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: he was bad in the last game, or they're gonna
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 4: go with Bussy, who did play well in the last.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: Game, but he's very inexperienced.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what they're doing, but I don't
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: think it's a good sign when it's he pulls their goalie. Man, Like,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: I just leave Anderson in because he's played so well
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: throughout the playoffs. I would have just left him in,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: let him regain his confidence. I don't know what that was.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: And yeah, putting bussy and almost got them the game,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: that's true, but.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: He's not telling anyone, all right. That makes this game
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: even more difficult to handicap. But I don't think that's
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: a positive. Having a goaltender question mark is not good. Vegas,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: like I said, should have won that game more easily.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 4: They were winning the game four to nothing. The game
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: was crazy, dude. Carolina did score on a power play,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: and their power play really hasn't been that good really
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: throughout the entire season. Vegas did out shoot them slightly,
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: but Vegas out hit them by twenty somethings hit, so
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: Vegas was the more physical team, although Carolina won the
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: face off battle. Yeah, I feel like shit, this is awful.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: Oh god, I know it's obvious. And then in the
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: game before that, by the way, the game before that,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: Vegas probably should have won the game before that too.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was just a crazy sequence of events.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: In this other game.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: The game prior to that, where Vegas was winning two
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 4: nothing into the third period, Carolina tied the game. Then
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: Vegas looked like they had the go ahead goal taken
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: off from goaltender interference. Tortorella challenged it, lost the challenge,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: which gave Carolina power play. Then they scored on the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: power play that they don't they don't really have a
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: good power play. Vegas wound up tying it anyway again
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: after that, and then they lost on another power play
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: on a trip in overtime. I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: Vegas definitely could have easily won that game too. I
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: think Vegas has been the better team in this series
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: of of our I think the Carolina after putting all
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: that energy into come back from down four to nothing,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: huge comeback, doing all that just to fall short again,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: and of the goaltender question marks here, I like Vegas
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: in this game.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: That's the way I would lean here.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: The money does not agree with that, though, Uh we
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: have fifty six percent tickets eighty six percent of the
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: cash on Carolina the round minus one thirteen. I don't
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: agree with it though, and the money's coming in on
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: the over all three games. All three games have gone
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: over the total so far, but I think a lot
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: of that was kind of flukey, man. So I don't know,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: but I think Vegas is actually kind of correlated to
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: an over. I think Carolina wants to play under. Carolina
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: wants to play under games. That's what they want to do.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: They play low scoring games.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: Vegas is a better offensive team, so they want to
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: like probably push the pace and they have been able
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 4: to do that in the series. Vegas, Well you mean Carolina,
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: I think, yeah, But yeah, those are my thoughts on it.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it, man.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 4: I don't really have much else on this game, but
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: slight lean for me towards Vegas. I don't really have
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: a good read on the total though, with all the
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: games going over so far, maybe an under does make sense.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 4: But I think an under might be correlated to Carolina.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 4: So do that if what you want.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: We got through it all.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: Maybe I have to be sick all the time just
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: so the show goes faster. Three plays today or the
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: Mariners on the money line. Minnesota and Detroit first five
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: under four and a half in baseball and also baseball
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: Reds minus a half run first five innings, that's gonna
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: do it. Let's get some wins today. Two and one
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: would be fine with me. Hopefully we can do it.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: I appreciate it.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: Everybody.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: like subscribe to the channel here? What else am I
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 4: gonna say? We're on audio as well, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: That all helps covered in you because my yuke channel
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: on YouTube which I have not gotten back to, and
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: now I can't do anything when I'm sick with that.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: So whatever, Patreon dot com, slash, learn to toe do
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 4: you support me there? Loser casts will be back tonight
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: if I'm healthy, even I have no idea, and then
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: giants g spot podcast.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody. Thank you, sir.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna be a good day, it really isn't.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: I am just in a horrible state right now, and
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: I need to be better for tomorrow. For the Less
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: Claypool Extravaganza that I'm going to tomorrow, which features Primus
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: and a couple of his other bands. It's Sean Lennon
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 4: and whatever. I want to go, man, I love Primus,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 4: I love Less.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: I gotta go. I gotta be healthier at some point. Tomorrow.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm gonna take drugs to try to
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: overcome this. Am I allowed to say that. I don't know.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: I mean like ni quill and shit, that's gonna do it. Peace,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: Somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on leting, no hold on, load.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: On me for.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 3: That bites hard, but it don't.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: Get the crown. Hold on, hold on, Stay with me now,