Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | May 18, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA Show | May 18, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
Fall systems, clear lift. What's going on? Everybody? Happy Friday?
0:38
You know what Friday means? Talking some fights before I get anywhere. Want
0:42
to shout out two people? I'm in deep Water. Well I forgot to
0:46
shout out last time on the show good luck. He took third. He
0:50
had vanced top fifteen, the same he had danced to New Jersey in two
0:54
weeks. Shout out to you. Maybe it was good, Mojoe. I
0:56
didn't shout you out earlier last week deep Water, and then I always forget
1:00
it. It's like TBR something like that. I shout him out. The
1:04
past two weeks, man, no one ran as good as him. He
1:07
took fifteenth place like point two points ahead of the rest. He is also
1:11
going to Jersey on that last spot. Two Shiping Nation members shout out to
1:15
YouTube, good luck to y'all. In two weeks for sheets for myself for
1:21
Hoop wasn't quite as good of a day. That's DFS. Nobody cares where
1:26
harder as Tambo says, ready to make some money back this weekend, MMA,
1:30
MLB, PGA Showdown, NBA Playoffs, NHL Playoffs, No Better time
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headover Shippinnation dot Com Monthly six month annual packages. Also, if you do
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any of those, you get to test out our ship Tomiser. We released
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have any of those memberships, IMLBPGA, mess around with it, give us
1:51
some feedback in the chats. Ben's in here chee kite for why Guy Loan
1:56
Woolf Hope you guys are doing well? My man, Big Marley throw it
2:00
you. How are you doing? Hope you're doing well today? Yeah,
2:01
I'm good man. We've got four WMMA fights on this card, so you
2:05
can't ask for much more than that. I'm pumped up, ready to win
2:07
this hundred k. But yeah, I mean we also got you know,
2:13
Barbosa on the card, an old school that looking like the best shape of
2:16
his life. I'm starting to love this USADA list UFC, and I'm hoping
2:21
it continues this week. So yeah, right on that. Are you doing
2:24
anything different, like in your process or like how your capping fights like without
2:30
USADA, like a Warly Olives, Edson, Barbosa, some of these guys
2:35
that I mean, like pre Usada that some of these guys have been on
2:38
the juice obviously harder there. Are you changing anything? Are you just?
2:42
I think Barbosa's odds to win a little bit because of the no usada,
2:49
I mean, but a lot of it's recency biased too, with Jose Aldo
2:52
recently and then last week Diego Ferreira looking like the best shape of his life
2:59
at thirty nine years old, and I feel like, just in pictures alone,
3:01
Barbosa has never looked as ripped as he has, and he's got all
3:06
the skills in the world. So if we can look like an old or
3:08
a younger Barbosa, then I like him. Spoiler alert, Yeah, I
3:14
like it. We'll get there. That'll be the last fight, of course.
3:15
Bonding the top is always chessman. Hope you're doing well, Hope life
3:20
is good, and join more time you have with with Rio. With the
3:23
NBA season winding down, our projections and ownership are up, so if you
3:28
are a member at shippination dot com can check it out in the solver.
3:31
You can check it out on our projection sites. I'm not going to say
3:36
all the ownership like a like usual because ownership huge piece of them. May
3:39
content want to keep that behind the paywall for the most part. Maybe a
3:43
fight here and there, I'll mention ownership, but that is up on the
3:46
site. I'm the solver as well. Fight rankings, slate, plan,
3:51
Core report, everything else will be up shortly after this show. Check out
3:54
the MMA stone always filled out by the end of the night as well.
3:59
Let me refrash weighan's quick I've seen what everyone made weight. I thought I
4:03
saw a tweet that SI missed weight, but I'm seeing two oh six.
4:08
I don't know if he cut, like, must have weigh back in then
4:10
yeah, if he cut the last pound or something. MMA junkies showing me
4:14
two o six. I see everybody made weight except Jana Paniero, who has
4:18
not weight in yet and she is the last to weigh in, so yeah,
4:21
someone else has any info on the side. I did see that he
4:25
did miss initially, I'm seeing two o six, so he might have shed
4:29
the last pound or whatever was UFC's back to the Apex Small Cage twelve fights
4:34
seven or I think eight of the twelve now got a slight favorite to finish.
4:38
I think eight of the twelve are expected to finish multiple big favorites above
4:42
minus three hundred. My broadslad overview, it's a tough card. Big Marley's
4:46
already saying he's winning one hundred K. If I had to guess, I
4:48
don't think anybody is winning one hundred K this week. You'll need some big
4:53
dogs, But I mean we see big dogs Carlos Diego Ferre last week win
4:57
all the time. Big favorites lose. Random stuff can happen in the MMA,
5:01
So yeah, I won't be leaving too too much on the table,
5:04
probably one K max for me looking at direct leverage spots. I'm not gonna
5:10
make any rules because I do think like at some of our bosts Lara Murphy,
5:13
Chaos Williams, and Carlson Harris is right in that range for Me's Bahimaj
5:16
and Grimbo's right in that mid tier as well. I think those two other
5:20
fights could outscore that main event I might be a little lower on. So
5:25
there's just no rules I'm making personally on this card. Any broad state over
5:29
you before we go bottom the top now, I pretty much agree with that.
5:31
I'd be okay with more than a grand leftover on salary, But yeah,
5:36
no all in fights for me, and I damn near put zero five
5:42
star fights on this card, but I threw two in there. You can
5:45
go check them out a ship in Nation just because those are my two favorite
5:49
on the card. I will be attacking them heavy, but I won't be
5:51
making a rule on any fight that I want to be all in. Yeah,
5:54
I like it. Let's go on the top again. Ship Nation dot
5:57
com monthly six months, annual packages all of the sports going on. Check
6:00
it out and in the meantime mess with the ship Demiser that we released a
6:04
couple of weeks ago in PGA, in MLB, and it will be in
6:10
MMA and NASCAR in a couple of weeks. Very excited for that. Started
6:15
off with one of the worst fights of the night, Emily Dakota taking on
6:17
Vanessa Demopolis. Minus four hundred Dakota plus three point thirty is is Vanessa Demopolis.
6:24
I didn't know if I should have said Vanessa Demopolis, so I just
6:27
stuttered and combined them plus three hundred for this fight to finish. Ducote plus
6:30
four hundred Demopolis plus seven to twenty five. I ain't playing this fight in
6:36
twenty teams or less. Probably needs seventy five plus to get this fight.
6:42
We'll both be low owned. Like I don't even know my preferred play,
6:45
Like I feel very confident Da Coody can stuff takedowns. Piece you're up on
6:48
the feet, leg kicks, et cetera. You're gonna need a big score
6:51
though, at ninety two hundred, which I just don't see outscoring others in
6:56
the range. I think Demopolis gets pieced up. She's better grappler, don't
7:00
think she has successful takedowns. I guess I'd rather the favorite, but I
7:03
don't know. It's women's MMA, and any dog in this card. Seventy
7:06
from a dog could be enough down low, so nothing for me. I'll
7:11
be fading it. What do you see? Yeah? I agree. I
7:14
think that Dakoty probably keeps this fight on the feet for the most part because
7:18
Demopulous isn't a good wrestler. But even though she's not a good wrestler,
7:21
she just doesn't attempt to wrestle as much as I would want her to.
7:25
If she would go for ten takedowns in this fight in Land two, then
7:28
I think she would have a chance, but I just don't trust her to
7:30
do that. So I think ultimately Dakota is gonna win on the feet two
7:34
or three rounds and just not score enough to get there. She's my favorite
7:38
fade on the card. I'm going to x out Dakody, but Demopolis is
7:43
my preferred play in this fight, just because she does have a ceiling with
7:46
an arm bar at some point, and if she did go for ten takedowns
7:49
and landed two, I think she could score over ten X in a win
7:54
just by you know, winning two rounds. If it's like a takedown in
7:56
the first round, takedown in the second round, just hanging on to top
7:59
control time, I think she could land enough strikes on the ground and possibly
8:01
have like eighty five plus in her game here. I just don't think it's
8:07
likely, so I'll mix her into a couple of lineups to be contrarian,
8:11
but ultimately this is fine I'm trying to get away from for sure. Yeah,
8:15
Like, if someone wins one hundred K, this is one of the
8:18
fights that if it like Demopolis scores ninety plus ters on the optim order,
8:22
Cody puts up one to ten plus, that is where one hundred K gets
8:26
a lot more likely. We'll say a couple of fights like this will be
8:28
by far one of the lowest combined ownership fights on the car. Rightfully,
8:33
so the ownership is pretty efficient nowadays for the most part, so it's not
8:37
a man. Anything can happen. Plus three hundred to finish, though Striker
8:41
grappler. Everything you've made sense about Demopolis being your preferred play, like what
8:46
in round one? What is Dakotay plus nine hundred, Like how I see
8:50
it, I would be surprised, like a third round finish from Dakoty,
8:52
like the light kicks that she can put on she put on Pennay like,
8:56
I don't think Demopolis might be able to eat them for all three, but
9:00
Chi can just bounce around the cage and stuff like that. Dakody might be
9:03
a little worried about the takedown. I don't know. We spent enough time
9:07
on that fight first flight. Hopefully it's boring. Hopefully it's not optimal for
9:11
me. Next fight on the card. Another relatively low issue on fight,
9:15
especially the favor Clinton Rodriguez minus one fifty eight, Ali tank hale Lee plus
9:20
one thirty eight, So it's plus one forty five to finish both fighters plus
9:24
three ten inside the distance. Round one props the underdog Ali tank Halee plus
9:30
seven to fifty Rodriguez plus nine hundred, which is pretty interesting. I'll go
9:35
quick because Clinton Rodriguez is an easy fade for me. I just primary striker.
9:39
He's not going to get it done on the mats. Ali Tanklee is
9:43
pretty tough to finish. I think you need a finish, you need a
9:46
lot of volume. I just prefer Laura Murphy, Barbosa Chaos, Carlson Harris
9:52
for cheaper brahimas Grimbo right there. I prefer getting all the way up and
9:56
going stars and scrubs more so, I just don't like Rodrigae. I don't
10:00
like the upside. My preferred play is definitely Alutang hay Lee. I don't
10:05
bove his upside either, though, But what seventy six hundred Marley eighty could
10:09
be enough? Like if eleven of the twelve favorites win and he's the only
10:11
dog or something like that average is over a takedown per fifteen minutes. Maybe
10:16
he can mix in a couple of those. Has some power. I don't
10:20
think he's gonna knock out Quins in Rodriguez. I see a close decision.
10:24
I'm gonna be on the dog the one case Savings goes a long way,
10:26
hopefully mixes in some takedowns. Still don't love this fight, though, and
10:31
well what's going on, Terry? I hope you're doing well. Man,
10:33
Good to see you. I kind of like Rodriguez here. I think that
10:37
the line should be a little bit wider than it is. I think he
10:39
should have a clear striking edge in this fight. Ali tang hay Lee does
10:43
have you know, one shot KO power, he just doesn't throw many shots
10:48
for me to rely on that. I think he really needs to mix in
10:50
takedowns here and spend as much time as he can in top control or try
10:54
and get a submission. I just don't think he's that good. And if
10:58
Rodriguez hand stuff takedowns here, I like him to win all three rounds,
11:01
if not get a TKO at some point. So since he's going to be
11:05
low owned, he is definitely my preferred play. But he's my way of
11:09
getting a little bit different on this card. I probably will be over the
11:11
field on Rodriguez, hoping that he gets the knockout at some point. Al
11:16
tang hey Lee lands what two point eighty eight significant strikes per minute, but
11:20
he eats over five per minute, and I could definitely see Rodriguez just landing
11:26
a lot of volume here, maybe enough that he puts him away. At
11:28
some point scores one hundred points at you know, fifteen, maybe even sub
11:33
fifteen percent ownership. I'm cool with that, So I'll be on the Rodriguez
11:37
side. And then I think Ali tang Hey Lee's gonna be a little bit
11:39
too popular for my liking. He does have one hundred and twenty nine point
11:43
win because he got like a first minute knockout, but aside from that,
11:46
I think eighty is the highest he's ever scored, and even if he lands
11:50
for takedowns here, I don't think he does enough minutes a minute to score
11:54
well in a win. So I'm gonna let the field take him and I
11:58
might x him out just because he too popular. If he was going to
12:01
be ten to fifteen percent, and maybe he will be, but I have
12:05
him a little bit over that. But if he was ten to fifteen percent,
12:07
maybe I would I would get five to ten percent. But I just
12:13
I don't like him enough, and I think Rodriguez might be a bet for
12:16
me as well. No, everything used to that makes sense. Usually I'm
12:20
on the game theory side too, and would be on Rodriguez. I just
12:22
yeah, I just don't think he finishes. Elting's tough to put Away in
12:26
an eighty six hundred like like I mentioned, all the other fighters in the
12:30
mid tier that a little lower, you go off a couple hundred more you
12:33
get to the boost Mago Metas and stuff like that, who just have way
12:37
more upside in my opinion too. But alting Ay is definitely gonna get some
12:41
ownership because if you look at seventy six hundred and below, he by far
12:45
is the best win equity on a slate at plus one thirty eight, and
12:48
you're looking the next fight, we'll talk about plus one eighty five for the
12:50
dog, plus two fifteen, plus two seventy plus four hundred, plus three
12:54
fifty like plus three forty five, so many big dogs in the lower tier.
13:00
It feels nice getting some moneyline equity with Ali ta halee. And I'm
13:03
with you, I don't love the ceiling either. Maybe I just get way
13:05
underweight on boat like I'm not gonna play Rodriguez. I'm fine with Ali tahale
13:11
but if he's gonna be like twenty twenty five percent, I want to be
13:13
under that too, and just hope this fight bus Rodriguez wins a decision something
13:18
like that. So, yeah, everything you made sense. Everything you said
13:22
makes sense about Rodriguez. You can play him in chalk your lineups. I
13:26
still prefer the one case savings. If I play Alta Haylee, maybe I'll
13:28
leave a little money. But I just don't love these first couple fights.
13:31
I think it's like last week first couple fights not nearly as good. The
13:35
last end of the car at absolutely phenomenal. Ownership will reflect that for the
13:39
most part. Excuse me. Next fight on the card, Pierre Rodriguez taking
13:43
on Ariana Carnelosi. Minus two twenty is Pierre Rodriguez, plus one eighty five
13:50
is Carnelosi. It's like plus one eighty to finish. Rodriguez plus two eighty
13:54
five Carnelosi plus four sixty. I'll throw it to Big Marley. I'm gonna
14:00
say is, if you have guys or girls watching this and not seen Ariana
14:03
Carnelosi, google imageure right now, grown ass woman, take off the head,
14:11
take off everything, and you just see her arms. You're losing all
14:13
your money, Matt spatting her being a man. Big, big time pipes,
14:18
now you need some. You need more than just pipes to win in
14:20
the MMA. To win an MMA, big Marley, especially in the UFC
14:24
level. Take it away, how do you see it going? Yeah,
14:26
Man, when I grow up, I want arms like Carnelosi's grow up.
14:31
What age is that up? All right? But I mean when I saw
14:37
these names, I remember Carnelosi is just being ripped up big time power no
14:43
U Sawa. Now that's got to be a good thing for And I was
14:46
like, you know what, that could be a possible play for me.
14:48
And then you just go back and watch her fights and she has zero takedown
14:52
defense. She got taken down in all eight attempts from Loopy Godinez, she
14:58
got taken down in three of four attempts Nali Yang. That's not good.
15:01
That's not good at all. And Piero Rodriguez can wrestle. I think that
15:05
she's more of a boxer than a wrestler, and she probably would win a
15:09
fifteen minute striking match here against Carnelosi. But why take that danger when Carnelosi
15:13
can knock you out. When you can just go out there and land takedowns
15:16
with with no defense at all, and then spend time in top patrol land
15:20
your punches there, you could put up a pretty good score. So I
15:24
do like Piero Rodriguez to have a decent ceiling in this fight, but at
15:28
the same time, Carnelosi does have knockout power. If one of these is
15:31
gonna if one of these ladies is gonna knock out the other, it's gonna
15:33
be Carnelosi. So I want a little bit of both of them. My
15:39
preferred play is gonna be Rodriguez because I think she should go in there land
15:41
takedowns, and she probably can land five plus takedowns in this fight and score
15:46
one hundred points in the decision, which I always like. But there's not
15:50
a lot of dogs on this card that have one hundred point potential, and
15:54
I think Carnelosi does. I mean, she's a powerhouse, so even she
15:56
could land some takedowns of her own, I just would like her more for
16:00
her knockout powers. Just be aggressive early, trying to knock this girl's head
16:03
off, and then you can score one hundred and twenty points, even if
16:07
it's super early. But I don't think she'll get much ownership, so I
16:10
could see me being around field weight on Carnelosi. Rodriguez I'm not sure about.
16:15
I haven't built lineups. I like her in general, but there's a
16:18
lot of favorites up in that, you know, eighty eight hundred or more
16:22
arrange that I like where I just don't know what's going to be able to
16:25
fit based on the underdogs that I like, So I'll probably be around field
16:27
weight on both. I would guess, Yeah, I don't really have much
16:30
more to add. Like I like Rodriguez. I did look at her ownership
16:34
number, though, and I was hoping it was going to be a little
16:37
lower. Yeah, I guess that'll be one of the fights. I say,
16:41
twenty nine percent we up here Rodriguez Carneloci we have at seventeen percent,
16:45
and I was hoping it was or thinking it was going to be like twenty
16:48
four percent Rodriguez, twenty percent Carnelosi or something. At this ownership, I
16:56
think I'd rather Carnelosi. And before that I thought it was Rodriguez because I
17:00
was getting more leverage. Again, I thought Carnelosi was higher with the lack
17:03
of dogs. Rodriguez not the most fun click at eighty eight hundred in a
17:07
fight expected to go to decision, And I still again wouldn't be surprised if
17:11
ownership shrunk a little bit to that, so I initially said Rodriguez because of
17:15
exactly you said, Carnelosi can't stop any takedowns. Rodriguez averages well over two,
17:21
maybe even over three. She can glant takedown, stay stafe on top,
17:26
lance some elbows and plus two eighty five inside the distance isn't even bad.
17:30
But man, twenty nine percent, like, I definitely like a boost
17:34
for two hundred more. I much rather like all the size of the world
17:38
than Nolan's of the world. Gotto's of the world for even more money is
17:42
tight on this card. I don't know. I'll have to think a little
17:45
more about what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna play both sides, Carnelosi.
17:49
I guess that this ownership is my preferred play, though as a live dog
17:52
when I don't like many dogs. I was struggling on ownership on this card.
17:57
I had like I was like forty short and now I was almost hitting
18:00
you up, like, hey, man, can you fill the rest out
18:03
for me? Nowhere to go? But I know I was like under twenty
18:07
five percent on Rodriguez originally, and then I just had to keep bumping people
18:11
up and she was one of them. And I think I was like I
18:12
want to say, I was like fourteen percent Carnilosi twenty four percent with my
18:17
first run. I was just so short overall that I was adding into multiple
18:21
people, and Pierre Rodriguez just made more sense with all those takedowns that she
18:25
could possibly land here where I had to up her a little bit. And
18:27
it also makes sense because it's a weird where there's only twelve fights, but
18:32
like a Boos is nine k, there's no eighty nine hundred, then you
18:36
have Pierre Rodriguez No. Eighty seven hundred, and then you have klits in
18:40
Rodriguez who people don't want to click either, So you're kind of in that
18:44
dead zone where people just might land there. Like Luro Murphy's obviously gonna be
18:48
higher on I think Grimbo's gonna be higher Kaos Carlson. I feel good about
18:52
that, Yeah, But I don't know, like it'll be interesting if you
18:56
have like a lineup that leaves one hundred of Pierre Rodriguez or something but doesn't
19:00
play the main event, Like will that lineup be less dupe than a Lara
19:03
Murphy at least four hundred or whatever. That's the stuff I'll be thinking of.
19:08
But yeah, I guess she will be a little higher omen I initially
19:12
expected because just No. Eighty nine hundred she's there. No. Eighty seven
19:17
eighty six is gross too. You just might land on that. Especially it's
19:21
not fun to full punt by any means, which could lead to a more
19:23
balanced mid tier bill, and she just fits it there. So if that's
19:27
the case, I want to avoid using her as a last piece just because
19:30
she fits like. I want to go out of my way to get her
19:33
and then try and get different within her and hope she gets you one to
19:36
fifteen from wrestling. That makes sense, and she Another reason I was raising
19:40
her up is because this line opened pretty pick them and it's just been nothing
19:44
but Rodriguez love, and I feel like that'll kind of carry over into the
19:47
DraftKings side. Yeah, makes a lot of sense. It's not enough time
19:51
on that one. Grown ass woman Ariana Carnilosi taken on Pierra Rodriguez to a
19:56
next fight. A couple of grown ass men A boost Maga metaf Warley Alvez
20:00
minus two to fifty five Magametta plus two fifteen Worley Alvez minus three fifty for
20:06
this fight to finish under one and a half minus one forty five, Margamettev
20:11
minus won sixty five inside the distance, Worley plus three twenty five round one
20:15
props, Magametov plus one fifty five one of the best on the slates.
20:19
Worley Alvez plus was seven fifty in round one. Two notorious gassers. Two
20:27
guys that if this fight gets to the third round, somehow it's gonna be
20:32
ugly. It's gonna be gross. Probably. I don't see it getting there.
20:34
Books don't see it getting there even after round one. I'll be keeping
20:37
a close eye on this one for live betting, but I don't know what
20:41
side of a better cardio. There's been a lot of line movement in this
20:44
fight. A boost open minus four seventy five immediately got bought to like minus
20:48
two twenty and ever since then, it's kind of been hanging around there the
20:52
past couple of days. Yeah, like a Warley has taken a little money,
20:56
but mainly the big line movement. Initially minus four seventy five was posted
21:02
morely for plenty money. I'm guessing his big bets that moved into minus two
21:06
twenty range. I'll throw it right to you in this one. You're in
21:10
a Boost guy. I know from the past couple fights, his first two
21:12
UFC fights, so or first three, maybe the first two and then you
21:17
didn't like him. Maybe I'm the last one. But yeah, I was
21:19
that Boost guy until freaking Strickland. Yeah I remember that one. Hey,
21:25
you look good at round one and then the cardio. I was like,
21:27
oh, that was just so pathetic, Like you just signed up for a
21:30
five round fight. You guessed in five minutes. Man. Yeah that was
21:33
one of the easier. That was one of the easier live bets of all
21:37
time because he was not keeping that pace and Strickland was just let's go,
21:40
I could take these That was easy. Yeah, that was horrible. So
21:42
that kind of made me a non a Boost guy. But I'm going back
21:47
to him here. I like him in this one, but I like this
21:48
fight as a whole. This is one of my favorite fights on the CAR
21:51
because it is plus one twenty to end in round one, so that's just
21:56
over forty five percent chance to end in the first round and both of them
22:00
can get there. A Boost kind of needs to get there because I don't
22:02
expect him to wrestle at all, and the longer this goes he's gonna slow
22:04
down, like if you told me this is gonna be. If this is
22:07
even hitting the third round, he's probably a full fade. And Worley's my
22:11
preferred play of the two. And I think Worley's more likely to win because
22:15
I would guess that means he's getting a couple of takedown spending time in top
22:18
control, wearing a boose out more. But I do think a boose is
22:23
one of the more likely first round finishers on the card. Both of these
22:27
guys are front loaded, though, and that's what I'm targeting this fight for.
22:30
It's just that if it makes it out a round one, it's gonna
22:32
be a shit show. Probably, so not all in, but I do
22:37
want to be heavy on it. I would guess I get about I don't
22:40
know seventy five percent of my lineups with this fight, maybe forty five percent
22:45
of BOOST twenty five thirty Worley, I don't know something along that I haven't
22:49
built lineupsht I will be after this, but this is gonna be the one
22:52
that I target pretty heavily, if not even more so than the main event.
22:57
So I'll be hoping this fight and round one and I probably won't even
23:02
care either way who it is. But if a Boos wins in around one,
23:04
he's still got to compete with everyone else. But if Warley wins in
23:07
around one, he breaks the slate. So I don't know, take take
23:11
what you will that fight. You can't trust either of these guys, but
23:14
hopefully we get a high score. Yeah, and again we said we're not
23:17
making any hundred percent this fight. If you want to do that, I
23:19
don't think it's the craziest thing, but there are multiple minus three hundred like
23:23
inside the distance props expected to finish. So yeah, again, we're not
23:29
gonna go one hundred percent. I don't really have much more to add like
23:32
Warley is. I think if some if you tell me a dog's putting up
23:34
one hundred plus, my guess is it's gonna be Warley. And of course
23:38
it could be a Victor Martinez, it could be Venetia Salvador. I just
23:42
think they're way more likely to lose. I think this fight, Warley has
23:47
so many outs to a big score, but I think he gets starched in
23:49
probably like two minutes. I think a boost comes off, maybe not at
23:52
Dustin Stolespis performance, but man early he's just so attimidating. Is a boost
23:59
so big, so long, so powerful. I think he asks them out
24:03
in the first my preferred play, though it's one of those spots we talk
24:06
about a lot big Marley. If I added I don't know, fifty percent,
24:10
Warley might feel a little uncomfortable. But with how bad these dogs are,
24:14
I probably if I loved everything and i'd fifty Warley and twenty five of
24:17
a Boose, I'd probably roll with it. If I had fifty a Boose
24:19
at twenty five Warley, I'd for sure roll with it. But on this
24:22
card, yeah, like nine k Si is six hundred more, Nolan's five
24:27
hundred more. They're gonna get ownership up there. You can leave five hundred
24:32
or six hundred. A Boose gets a first minute knockout, he gets the
24:34
bonus. He just gets a couple of knockdowns in the first round, et
24:38
cetera. I do think it is viable to fade Ci or Nolan, who
24:42
have way better money line props, but similar inside the distance props, similar
24:47
round one props, And that's a way to get different take off fifty dupes,
24:51
get it down to eight or something. If you have the nuts and
24:53
my boose can outscore them up top. So yeah, really not. I
24:57
don't really have a preferred. Like I said, if I had fifty Alves,
25:00
I'd probably be fine with it. Fifty a Boost, I'd be fine
25:03
with it. I might end up with more Warley just for the nature of
25:07
I'm crossing off a decent one of these big dogs that we get up to,
25:11
or I've crossed off some already. Yeah, I don't really know.
25:15
A Boost is my pick, but your pick doesn't always translate to you play
25:18
in dfs. Yeah, and I was thinking that I would be fine with
25:21
more than a thousand on the table because of this fight, Like, I'd
25:23
be okay putting my favorite a BOOST lineup and just going all the way down
25:26
to Warley, leaving eighteen hundred and getting real different that way. But it's
25:30
really the warly part of this fight that makes me being okay leaving a lot
25:33
of salary. He'd be on most of those lineups. Yeah, that makes
25:37
sense because he wins. He can put up one ten. Like he is
25:41
the dog that has definitely a lot of upside. He just gotta win as
25:44
a plus two to fifteen dog. What's going on, Nicol? How you
25:48
doing, Man and Pete, what's going on? Definitely don't kind of say
25:52
sorry, we appreciate you hanging out. What else do we got? Eric
25:55
Carcia, appreciate you hanging out as well. We appreciate those words. Enjoy
25:59
work on this Friday. Nobody works on Friday. JK, JK, Big
26:03
Marley and not here working a little bit MLB Show. I'll be on later
26:07
with Nid's a lot of money to be made today, Big drinks. What's
26:11
going on? My man? Next fight on the car Melissa Gatto Tamer's Vidal
26:15
minus three forty five. Gatto plus two seventy is Vidal. This fight is
26:21
minus one ten to finish. Just yesterday it was plus one hundred, so
26:23
some money coming in on the under gotta mine or plus one oh five inside
26:29
the distance Vidal plus nine to seventy five. I mean you always talk about
26:33
like ten X does Vanal even ten X in a win. I don't know.
26:37
I don't think she wins. I don't think she's on the optimal.
26:41
If she is, I will not I won't be on the winner. Huh
26:45
yeah, there's no other way around that. I just don't love the upside.
26:48
I'd rather wharlely and like, to be honest, I'd rather Venetia Salvador
26:52
and i'd rather Victor Martinez cause you get some leverage off the fighter that they're
26:57
fighting against, and just the un there's so much steam, Like if they
27:02
win it's a knockout, they're very low owned, et cetera. But all's
27:04
low owned. I don't think she's finishing nothing. I think Gotto is better
27:08
wherever the fight goes. It's just does she go for takedowns and wrestle and
27:12
maybe submission because that's where she can get you won ten or does she keep
27:17
it on the feet. And if that's the case, I don't really think
27:21
unless she gets a knockout, which is plus five hundred, you want her
27:23
to get to the mat, you want her to wrestle. Her sub is
27:26
plus two hundred, which is pretty encouraging. Plus five hundred for KO.
27:30
Yeah, I'll be playing some gotto because she's gonna be lower on than NOL
27:33
and she's gonna be lower on than SI, lower on than a Boose.
27:37
Not too too low on though if you look at her ownership. So yeah,
27:41
I'll throw it to you. What's going on? John? What's going
27:44
on? Joanne. Good to see you guys. Good call on that Chase
27:47
Hooper yesterday or last week as well. John, And I will say I
27:49
saw those guns when you were reflexing. Great work man, Big boy pipes
27:55
are Carnilosi pipes is what I'm seeing. He's down, Kyle. I just
28:00
run Kyle right there. You see. Yeah, I like Gotto quite a
28:06
bit in this one. I don't really see where Vidal is better anywhere.
28:10
Maybe just like one shot power, I guess. But my worry for Gotto
28:15
would be like, this is a fifteen minute striking match and it's it's just
28:19
a little bit too close on volume and the judges screw it up. That's
28:22
how I think vide wins. But yeah, she probably doesn't even ten x
28:26
there where. I think Gotto could dominate this fight on the ground. I
28:29
also think she's the better striker. She probably should win a clear two or
28:32
three rounds if this is a standing fight. But at ninety four hundred dollars,
28:36
we can't have this fight take place on the feet. We need Gotto
28:40
to get it to the ground, and I think she if she get it
28:42
to the ground in round one, I think she could finish it in round
28:45
one. I think plus two hundred for the submission props a little too wide.
28:48
I think it should be lower than that. So that's a possible prop
28:52
play for me. But I also like Gotto. I would like her more
28:55
if her ownership was lower, which it could be. She was another one
28:59
that I I was bumping up. But I think if anyone dominates this fight,
29:03
it's for sure gonna be Gotto, and that would come on the ground,
29:06
so she doesn't even need a finish if she's gonna go out there and
29:08
wrestle all three rounds, I think. But I like her to get a
29:11
submission on this fight. So God is my preferred play. I'm fading by
29:15
del yeah, and I'm not worried about her moving up and waiting this fight
29:18
like Vidall's cheeks. There's really no other way about it. God was just
29:21
way more skilled. The plus two hundred by seb it was plus two to
29:25
twenty five, so little steam there around one prop was plus four hundred now
29:29
plus three twenty five. Again, the under just yesterday was plus one hundred
29:33
now minus one ten. So some underprops coming in, and it's definitely not
29:37
because people think Vidal's finishing anything so worth noting. I do like Gotto quite
29:42
a bit, because, yeah, if you can wrestle, you have first
29:45
round submission upside, and you're gonna be not low owned by any means,
29:51
but at least lower own than the two people more expensive than you, and
29:55
then a couple below. So yeah, I'll definitely be playing some of the
29:57
lista Gatto next fight on the card Omar's side, taking on George Toco's minus
30:04
five fifty side, the biggest favorite on the cart and the most expensive at
30:07
ninety six hundred tokos plus four hundred on the other side, taking this fight
30:11
on four days notice. Shout outs anybody that taking this fight on four days
30:17
notice, flying across the country. I mean a lot is a lot stacked
30:21
up against him in this one. I will say, I'll throw it to
30:22
you in this one, just like more game theory, how you see the
30:26
fight going, et cetera. Mine open minus five hundred, bought right to
30:30
minus two eighty five, which is really interesting. Then ever since then,
30:34
money's been pouring in on side. He did again misweight. I saw you
30:38
put it in the discord, and then I think he went back out and
30:41
cut the pound. That's what I'm seeing for unmade junkie. I don't know
30:47
this side. He looks pretty nice French nine to zero prospects making his UFC
30:49
debut. Iss Toco's dude does not look good. He lost like minus seven
30:55
hundred a couple of years back on the quarterfinals of Tough for Something to zero
31:00
to two and Bellator. This feels like one way traffic and side has wrestling
31:03
upside. From what I'm seeing, I don't see any props besides under one
31:07
and a half minus one fifty and under two and a half minus three fifty
31:11
if you have an inside the distance prop, but obviously you know that's gonna
31:15
be pretty high. Yeah, I might have to raise size ownership later because
31:22
I had it a little lower because I thought they had an inside the distance
31:26
prop earlier and it was a lot. It was a lot worse than I
31:30
thought it was gonna be. I think you were looking at the they still
31:33
have if you're looking at a fight outs that Tony O TRICALI fight who were
31:36
supposed to fight. Possibly, yeah, because they won fifty five for that
31:40
and it's minus two seventy two thirty because it got It's tough me for a
31:42
sac too, because they still have a So yeah, it's gonna be way
31:47
higher than that. Yeah, that's what I was thinking, because I just
31:51
think the size better everywhere. I think he's the better striker, more dangerous
31:53
striker, better wrestler, can finish the fight with ground and pound. Uh.
31:57
But Tokos was just He's looked like a sloppy brawler to me, and
32:01
they're big boys. So if he's gonna win, I think it would be
32:05
an early lucky knockout, which breaks the slate at no ownership. So I
32:09
don't want to X him out of my player pool, but I just don't
32:13
like his chances of winning here. I think Cy either knocks him out on
32:15
the feet in the first round or gets a takedown and grounded pounds them into
32:20
a TKO for the first round. So SI is my preferred leverage play here.
32:24
It's just that he's ninety six hundred dollars. It's hard to get up
32:27
to ninety six, especially when Nolan is one hundred dollars cheaper. See,
32:31
I'm gonna get as much sigh as I can afford, but I'm not gonna
32:35
force him into lineups. I'm fine going all the way down to Pierre Rodriguez.
32:38
If that is getting me up to an underdog that I like more and
32:43
then Tokos, I'd probably set a max at like ten percent, just to
32:46
make sure that the optimizer doesn't give me too much of them. But I
32:51
would prefer to be closer to five or zero on him, just because he's
32:53
he's not good and his wins are against a bunch of scrubs too. BESI
32:59
is early in his career, he's kind of unproven, so it wouldn't completely
33:02
shock me if he did knock out Side just being aggressive in round one,
33:07
knowing he took this fight on short notice, probably doesn't have three rounds of
33:12
cardio in his tank, so he should be aggressive. But yeah, give
33:15
me Side By knockout. Yeah, I'm not going to have any Tokos.
33:19
I'll play. I guess I'm talking a little hat on what word I was
33:22
looking for. I'm playing some Victor Martinez. I'm playing some Venetia Salvador,
33:27
also really big dogs. I think they both get destroyed. I like that
33:30
more than Tokos, but you do get a good amount of leverage if you
33:34
do play tocos. If SI does lose, I just think he's better everywhere
33:37
from what I seen this Tocos, dude doesn't look very great. Next fight,
33:42
so you mentioned say you mentioned Nolan perfect sideway minus four fifty Tom Nolan
33:46
plus three fifty Victor Martinez fights minus five hundred to finish minus two seventy five
33:52
for Nolan, plus four seventy five for Martinez. So do you prefer SI
33:58
for ninety six hundred or do you prefer no at ninety five hundred. I'm
34:01
going to break this fight down. Well, the I got to see the
34:05
inside of the distance line and everything for Cy, but minus comparing, I
34:09
feel like it's got to be like a minu roughly minus. I guess it's
34:13
minus four fifty inside the distance because we got minus one seventy under one and
34:17
a half in Nolan fight. We have under one and a half at minus
34:21
one fifty four in the side fight. So like plus four fifty plus four
34:25
seventy, Like it has to be very similar to the Nolan is what I'm
34:29
getting out of it. Yeah, well, so I would say stylistically,
34:31
I would like Sy more because he can get the same knockout and Nolan can
34:35
get just on the feet. I do think back to this fight Nolan.
34:38
I do think it's just a much better striker. He's aggressive in round one,
34:42
and we saw Martinez get knocked out by u Jeorgan. It's not good,
34:46
so I think Nolan. This is a fight for Nolan to get back
34:51
on track. Put him away. It's just that he's real green in his
34:52
career and I don't trust him, especially coming off a knockout. And then
34:58
Nolan is a striker only, so if he's not getting a first round knockout,
35:01
I don't really like him. And Si could go out there and wrestle,
35:05
so he just has SI has more ways to hit one hundred plus points
35:08
in my opinion, so maybe I like him for that reason. But Nolan's
35:13
one hundred dollars cheaper minus two to seventy five inside the distance plus one ten
35:17
to win in round one. I like them both, and I feel like,
35:23
if I'm building, you know, let's say ten or less handbuilds,
35:28
I want one of them and probably all ten, if not both, in
35:30
a couple of them. If I just don't know that I'll be able to
35:34
get both with the underdogs on this card, but I do feel strongly that
35:38
those are probably the best two plays on the slate. If we can get
35:40
up to them, and then I also have size ownership lower right now,
35:46
which would make me like him more. But if I'm gonna bump up anybody's
35:50
ownership after the show, it's it's gonna be size. So I have no
35:53
idea. I'll probably get close to the same on both of them. But
35:57
I would also want my favorite SI line to be duplicated and have Nolan in
36:01
there also, that makes sense, Yeah, I would. If I had
36:05
to pick, I'd go Side, but he gets your one twelve and Nolan
36:08
gets you one sixteen, like you're wrong, but you're flipping coins essentially at
36:13
the end of the day. I like Side because he has more takedown Upside,
36:15
he has more passed to I think a bigger score where Nolan just striking.
36:20
But I mean, Jordan Levit just knocked out this dude. Like Tom
36:23
Mohan's a lot better striker than Jordan Levitt. It should be easy. Yeah,
36:29
Martine is gonna be a fade for me. He's gonna be a fade.
36:31
Yeah. I'm playing him because like he's one of the dogs that I
36:35
am playing just because like we have it and I think it probably is the
36:37
case. Nolan the highest one on the card, if you see crazy things
36:42
happen under one and a half minus one seventy Martinez inside of this is problem
36:45
not bad at plus four seventy five. Now again I think he loses.
36:50
I think he puts up very very little. But I'll play some Martinez and
36:53
like if he wins, that's when you see a hundred k shipper like that
36:58
three three uniques or something three or something like that. You need some crazy
37:01
thing to happen on this twelve fight card to get there, or victim Martinez.
37:07
I'll be playing Chalky or fighters in the in that lineup with him,
37:09
hope he wins top fifty percent. That with Tom Nolan five percent Martinez gets
37:15
there, then you hope you have the right combination. But yeah, Nolan
37:17
should make it look pretty easy. We'll keep it rolling. Next fight on
37:21
the car at Angela Hill. One of Pinero minus one forty four is Angela
37:25
Hill plus one twenty four of the one of Pinero, so it's plus three
37:30
hundred to finish Panero plus five hundred hill plus five fifty. That's interesting because
37:35
yesterday when I was writing this, it was plus four fifty Pinero and plus
37:40
seven hundred. No, maybe it was plus six hundred for Hill. Now
37:45
Hill got a little money on the inside of the business prop Pinero's went down
37:49
a little bit. Really, this fight is like again, if this fight
37:52
outscores the main event or Chaos Williams or brahimaj Grimbo, like those are the
37:57
three fights we'll get to in the mid tier, all expected to finish again,
38:00
all priced right together in the mid tier. Then you get this fight
38:04
is the other one plus three hundred to finish, two woman like girls going
38:08
at it with very little finishing equity. It's it's not a good fight.
38:13
It's very more than likely this fight's not on the optimal. You don't want
38:16
it because you probably need ninety ninety five plus to outscore those other three fights.
38:23
But when it does happen, when he'll puts up one hundred and eighty
38:28
four significant strikes or puts up four takedowns like she did a little bit of
38:31
going she scores one oh six, or a Piniero does what she did in
38:36
her first fight, random Marcos, five takedowns, control time, starts to
38:39
slow down, gets up kicked DQ and puts up one twenty nine. Yeah,
38:44
you're gonna want that fight. However, I just don't see many many
38:47
outcomes where that happens. He'll's my preferred play because of volume, like a
38:52
late third round finish, I could see that happening. But yeah, what
38:55
I'm trying to say is it's not really a great fight when you're comparing them
38:59
tall the other ones in terms of ceiling, and I'm not gonna have much.
39:04
Yeah, I don't disagree with any of that. I think, uh,
39:07
Pinero's success is all front loaded here. If she has any knockout power,
39:13
it's in round one. Most of her takedowns probably come in round one
39:15
two, But after that, I think he'll kind of takes over. She'll
39:20
start tough and take stuff and takedowns and just piecing her up on the feet.
39:22
Being the higher volume just the better overall striker. So I like he'll
39:27
to win at least two rounds on this one, if not all three.
39:30
So she is my preferred play. But if Panero had the gas, then
39:37
she would be the type of fighter that I would like because she can wrestle.
39:40
She landed five takedowns in that first fight against Random Marcos, but then
39:44
she quit because she knew she was gonna gas out at some point. So
39:47
I just don't trust her, and I think he's gonna be too hard to
39:51
finish, so he'll's my preferred play. And I'm not gonna x out either
39:54
side of this fight because I could see pats of both of them making the
39:59
optimal. But with my handbills, I'm really trying to get away from it.
40:02
Yeah, you and I see it identical. Not much up more I
40:05
need to add for that one. Four fights left, four very fun fights,
40:08
and all of them expected to finish. Adrian Yanya is my and Venetia
40:14
Salvador. Yanya is minus four fifteen Salvador plus three forty five. It's like
40:19
minus two forty to finish. Yanyas minus one sixty five Salvador plus five point
40:23
fifty. It feels clear his day with the UFC is trying to do.
40:28
I mean, how do you go from fighting Rob font and Jonathan Martinez to
40:30
Venetias Salvador. Yeah, Yanya is by ko. However, I don't love
40:37
him like I like side more for more money. I like what's his nuts?
40:43
And Tom Nolan for more money. Godo's kind of close, I guess.
40:46
But why I'm saying this is Yanya's is just a boxer. He throws
40:50
a lot of volume, but he is just a striker. This fight goes
40:52
the decision unless it's Sean O'Malley, Chris Mattino, and I just know one
40:58
you can bank on having the chin like did that day. He's not gonna
41:01
outscore these other people in the top range. He is minus one sixty five
41:05
to finish. He is plus one ninety and round one, So I think
41:09
he's a good play, knocked down upside, good volume, but just no,
41:13
there is no wrestling upside like there is with Si, like there is
41:16
with Gatto, etc. But that is kind of why I'm playing Salvador two
41:21
over like Tokos, just because, all right, anyone little gloves two guys
41:25
locked in the cage. These guys are still training every single day too.
41:29
Salvador has knockout power. You hope he lands flush, so he has a
41:32
puncher's chance. I'll be playing some since I don't like many dogs. Gang
41:37
is the preferred play. I think he knocks him out, but I guess
41:40
i'll throw it too. Do you think he knocks him out in round one?
41:44
Yeah? I think he does, and I think round two could be
41:45
enough. Also, we've been doing the show almost a year now and I've
41:51
said one fighter sucks, and it was Salvador. I just think he's horrible.
41:57
I mean, he's he's standing out there, his hands are at his
41:59
hips, and that's where he's throwing every shot from. He's throwing haymakers from
42:01
his hips and against a good boxer with nice straight shots, and Yanis throws
42:07
at angles that most guys don't throw at and I like his striking a lot.
42:10
Yeah, I think it's a clear UFC wants him to win. Get
42:14
back on track. Let's get Salvador out of here. Anybody that's getting pieced
42:16
up by Shannon Ross doesn't deserve to hear anyways. So yeah, I'm gonna
42:20
fade Salvador completely and hope one of those haymakers doesn't land. And I think
42:24
Janes puts them away, probably in the first round, but I think he
42:28
could just put on a clinic in the first round not come out in the
42:30
second. It could still be enough. So I like Yanas, and if
42:34
he's gonna be a lot lower on than sy and Nolan, I could see
42:37
me getting leverage on Yanez. But I like all those people. I almost
42:42
I hand built the lineup, and I think I probably started at the top,
42:45
and I would be completely fine with that same lineup and then just getting
42:47
all the people below him too, just kind of duplicating it. So I'll
42:51
have one unique in all of my builds, hoping that I can hit on
42:54
my underdogs and then just hit the right combination with these high favorites. Yeah,
43:00
makes sense. And I want to say, and you obviously do the
43:02
ownership. You see it the same way. We don't think Giannas is going
43:06
to be low owned. I think there's four clear highest owned plays nine K
43:09
and above, and it's Tom Nolan, it's Sai, it's a Boost,
43:13
and it's Yanya's in what order. I don't know. I guess that I'm
43:16
not as strong about go ship a nation dot com. Check out our projections,
43:22
check out our ownership. But Yanya's is gonna get ownership. I think
43:24
it's those four Gatto I think is the somewhat of a pivot. Still gonna
43:29
get some the really low owned ones to Cody if you want that. But
43:34
again, I think ownership sufficient. I think she should by far be the
43:37
least owned in the nine K range. So yeah, nothing really more to
43:40
add. Yanya's probably makes it look pretty easy. Three fights left. Three
43:45
great mid tier fights, all expected to finish. Plenty of ownership will be
43:49
in these three fights, and it's a lot easier to leave money on the
43:52
table when you play fights like this. So Bemba Grimbo, Remiz Brahimaje minus
43:58
one forty Grimbo plus one's one Remis fights minus two twenty five to finish the
44:02
slight underdog with better finishing props plus one forty five Brahmaje plus one seventy five
44:08
is Grimbo round one props Brahimage plus three hundred Grimbo plus four fifty. I'll
44:15
throw it to you on this question because I'll answer mine. I guess quick.
44:20
I have this fight ranked one the main Event two Chaos Williams three.
44:23
If I'm trying to rank these three mid tier fights strong leans not really,
44:30
but at ownership, I think this fight comes in lower own them the main
44:32
event, and this fight I think plays out on the ground for the most
44:37
part. Grimbo wrestler, Brahimaje a grappler, Both guys Cardio, I mean,
44:42
especially Brahimage, but even Grimbo can slow down. I just think the
44:45
winner this fight has a good chance to score one hundred plus a little lower
44:50
own than the main event, So it's my slight preference, not a strong
44:52
take, though I obviously like Edsen Barbosa, Luo Murphy fight too. Answer
44:57
that question and then take this fight away. Yeah, I mean taking in
45:01
to account ownership. I'm fine with that ranking this being first, main event
45:06
second and Chaos being third. But just like outright points and like who's likely
45:13
to score points just because of the five rounds, I would put the main
45:15
event first, as in all have more exposure to the main event I'm guessing
45:21
than I will this fight. But they're close, man, I could see
45:22
both of these guys score in one hundred plus points. So yeah, taking
45:27
an ownership into account, I'm fine with your ranking. And ray monje is
45:31
actually one of my favorite underdogs on the play on the card because he is
45:37
an aggressive grappler when he wants to be, and if he can go out
45:40
there and land a takedown in the first fifteen seconds like he has a lot
45:44
in a lot of his past fights, I feel like he's super live for
45:46
a first round submission. And I also think Brady Moche could completely dominate this
45:52
fight. I just don't trust his fight IQ to go out there and shoot
45:55
for the takedowns on the first fifteen seconds. I think Garembo's the more dangerous
46:00
striker of the two. Maybe a fifteen minute striking match could be close,
46:04
but that's not going to get us there either way. So I'm just targeting
46:07
ceilings here, and I think Brahimajh has the more likely high ceiling with a
46:12
first round submission, so he's gonna be my pick, my preferred play.
46:15
But at the same time, I do want a good amount of Grimbo too.
46:17
I don't want to be too far under the field because I could see
46:20
him completely burning me. I'll probably just be right right around the field,
46:24
give or take five percent or so. Yeah, that makes sense. I
46:28
did pick Formiz round one two submission, but I don't feel strongly like that
46:32
his ceiling's way higher because man, I could see, like if Remish just
46:37
doesn't like Grimbo ends up on top, he can't stay safe. Rahimaj just
46:39
starts the gas. I mean, we could see five six takedowns all the
46:44
control time, elbows on top like you can see one twenty five from Grimbo.
46:49
If Brian Madge has nothing left in after the first round, like he
46:52
has multiple times, I mean, almost all of his finishes in round one
46:55
Grimbo, a wrestler can stay safe on top that way. Definitely green though,
47:00
which is why I did pick Ramis. His grappling's nice all the time,
47:04
his wins by sub But yeah, it's my favorite fight because I think
47:07
it plays out mainly on the mat Rahimage earlier, Grimbo late, and I
47:10
think either way the winner score as well, and any Groombo lineup can definitely
47:15
leave six hundred and go to Brahimage, no doubt about that. Two fights
47:20
left comine event time Chaos, Williams, Carlson, Harris minus one thirty two,
47:24
Chaos plus one twelve is Harris fits minus two ten to finish, Chaos
47:29
plus one fifteen Carlson Harris plus two fifty round one props. Chaos at plus
47:35
two fifty is very appealing. Harris at plus seven hundred. I'm looking at
47:39
it as a class of styles. Chaos the striker, Carlston the grappler.
47:45
I do think Carlson has. Carlson's grappling is even more wide. I don't
47:52
even I hope people are trying to It's gonna sound really dumb because the words
47:54
aren't coming out right. But I guess the difference in grappling is higher than
48:00
the difference in striking. How I see it, I think Carlson is a
48:01
much much better grappler than Chaos, whereas on the feet, I do think
48:06
Chaos is better, but Carlson could still land like a big shot. He
48:08
throws that weird angles, et cetera. It's just Chaos is way I mean
48:13
the power from Chaos. He's way more technical, throws good volume. But
48:17
if this fight hits the mat, I think it really might only be one
48:20
takedown. We just saw Carlson Harris get dominated by jaredmyer Wells until he did
48:24
it in a third round and he got an anaconda choke that's always in play
48:28
for Harris. So good fight to target again. I ranked this third of
48:31
the five of the three in the mid tier just because I think Chaos my
48:36
picks Chaos. I think he can stuff takedowns, which might mean he has
48:39
to be a little more composed on the feet because he doesn't want to.
48:43
I forget who it was last week, I mean just absolutely went balls,
48:45
oh freaking to Spain or whatever I think it was. This went crazy overthrowing
48:50
and Korto Zacosa the easiest takedown of all time from a non wrestler, like
48:53
you can't be doing in that fight this in this fight against Carlston, I'll
48:58
throw it to you. I guess I don't even have a strong lean on
49:00
the winner. I picked Chaos the stuff takedowns and knock him out, but
49:04
I no strongly no confidence in this at all. I'm the same. I
49:08
don't have a lien on this fight, and I picked Harris because he had
49:13
the plus next to his name, but I mean I picked him by split
49:15
because I have no real lien on this fight. I think Chaos is a
49:20
better striker, more dangerous striker, more likely to get a round one finish
49:23
like the odds say, but I think he needs the round one finish and
49:28
plus two fifty we're looking at about twenty eight percent, So I think about
49:34
twenty eight percent where I'm gonna set my ceiling on Chaos here and then Harris.
49:37
I think he has more paths to the optimal lineup because he could go
49:40
out there and get a knockout too, only he's only eight k. Maybe
49:45
he could go get a decision and score eighty five ninety points and still get
49:49
there. But I think he could maybe dominate the fight on the ground and
49:52
score really heavily. So since he's cheaper, I probably have more Harris.
50:00
I won't cap him at twenty eight. I'd be fine with thirty five forty
50:02
Harris if I got there, but ideally i'd be around thirty on him,
50:07
maybe twenty on Chaos something like that. But I do think both these guys
50:10
have pats to one hundred points, and if you have a strong lean get
50:15
leverage on that guy, maybe hedge with the other. But since I don't,
50:17
I'll just be throwing them both in the lineups, kind of letting the
50:19
optimizer take over. Yep, makes a lot of sense. You and I
50:22
and you have this one ringing third by far behind it. Yeah, those
50:25
two as well. Yeah, yeah, I actually I had it as a
50:30
four star. I'm changing at the three star right now. That makes a
50:34
lot of sense. Like Chaos plus two fifty and run one is definitely appealing
50:37
and it is a small octagon. But yeah, this fight goes a decision.
50:43
You want Carlson Harris to be the winner, obviously, assuming you have
50:45
him, Like, he's not getting there unless he has like four knockdowns or
50:50
something, and that's just you can't pay stuff like that, so yeah,
50:53
I think that makes a lot of sense. It is still minus two fifteen
50:57
to finish, so and I do think it will be the lowest combined own
51:00
of those three fights we talked about. Brahi Mas Grimbo probably pretty close in
51:05
ownership though main event time though, if this like usual, will be the
51:09
highest combined ownership fight on the card. Ro Murphy edsen Barbosa minus one fifty
51:15
Murphy plus one thirty Barbosa. Fight ends inside the distance minus one forty.
51:21
Arbosa plus two to ten Murphy plus two to ten inside the distance run one
51:24
props. Barbosa plus seven to fifty Murphy eight p fifty over three and a
51:30
half is favored at minus one fifty. So I'm on Barbosa two with you.
51:35
I just think the eight hundred savings the plus money. He's more active
51:37
on the feats, Murphy can be lower volume. I do think it's someone
51:42
mixes in takedowns. It's Murphy. I don't think he can control Edson on
51:45
the mats. With all that being said, that was my quick breakdown.
51:49
I'll let you break down the fight, but I'm almost always anti stacking.
51:54
I don't think it's the craziest thing on this card, I don't know if
51:58
I'm going to get there, but if we don't have any dogs win,
52:00
and again so many minus three hundred plus favorites, like I would take a
52:06
Lee's the only winner, but he scores seventy Like, I don't know.
52:08
Would you rather can a loser in this score more or just say no favorite
52:14
or no dogs win? This is by far the staff you do want to
52:17
do. I don't know. I rarely bring up stacking. The more I
52:22
thought about it, though, the more I think it's viable. But people
52:24
always do it so as it could even be higher on than usual, which
52:28
is still going to be over owned. Any thoughts on that and break down
52:30
this fight? Yeah, I mean, if you're gonna stackify, it's this
52:36
one. But I won't be even with one hundred and fifty. I don't
52:38
see me doing it at all. But a lot of it is because I'm
52:43
picking the underdog to win, so I am gonna be getting leverage to Barbosa
52:46
here and then like over three and a half is favored. That makes me
52:51
like Barbosa even more. I just don't see bar Murphy beating Barbosa in a
52:54
five round fight. I think he has to knock him out early before Barbosa
52:59
gets going, or get the fights to the ground and just hang on to
53:02
as much top control as he can there. But Barbosa's pretty good at stuff
53:06
and takedowns, and we just saw Barbosa go a hard five rounds against Yusuf.
53:12
I don't know that Murphy's beating Yusuf, So I like Barbosa. I
53:16
slightly favor him in this matchup, so he's an underdog. Anytime I think
53:20
an underdog should be favored, they're gonna be one of my favorite on the
53:23
entire card. And I'll probably have forty five plus fifty percent plus of Barbosa,
53:30
Whereas if Murphy wins this fight, I could see him not making the
53:34
optimal lineup and I'll probably be under the field on him, maybe half the
53:38
field something like that, just because I don't like him to win. I
53:43
do think he has big upside though, with the first round knockout potential,
53:45
But aside from early wrestling, we've never seen Murphy go five rounds. I
53:51
don't know if he has third, fourth, fifth round wrestling in his game,
53:57
and I just don't I don't see him being the better striker in the
54:00
last half of this fight at all, and now with no usada, Barboso
54:04
looking like the best shape of his entire life. I think he's live for
54:07
an early knockout as well. He could chop Murphy's legs down. He's the
54:09
best leg kicker I've ever seen. Uh So give me Barbosa. I'm gonna
54:14
be heavy on him. Yeah, I'm with you. I like it a
54:16
lot. I do think Barbosa will be higher own than Murphy. Maybe not
54:21
by two too much, but I do think it's one of the spots to
54:22
dog, especially on this card, because it's not fun clicking a lot of
54:27
dogs. It's still that's chalk. I'm good eating, and I'm willing to
54:30
play other fighters lead money to get different and rightfully, to be honest,
54:35
like it's not a card. I'm even trying to get unique. Like give
54:37
me if I won with seven other people, I would be totally fine with
54:40
that. It's it's tough. You'll need a i'mi Nakote to start it off.
54:45
You'll need a Clinton Rodriguez. Are you gonna need a Venetia Salvador Victor
54:50
Martinez? Like tokos, you know where the leverage is. Lowe plays again,
54:53
ownerships up. Definitely check that out. Projections, everything is in solver,
55:00
rankings, slate, plan, co report. Everything will be up shortly
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after we get off, just pretty shortly or I'm MLB. I'll be talking
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