Latest / The SME Stream / Martin Hawes: The impact of Trump's win on NZ markets

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Martin Hawes: The impact of Trump's win on NZ markets · The SME Stream

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Speaker 1: The best things in life bar free. You can give
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Speaker 1: it to the birds and bees. I want money, yes.
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Speaker 2: So welcome back to the Weekend Collective. I'm Tim Beverage.
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Speaker 3: And by the way, if you've must even of our
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Speaker 3: previous house, we just had a chat with Kent John's
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Speaker 3: from Kent John's.
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Speaker 2: Health around just avoiding interview burnout.
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Speaker 3: And also a bit of a chat about diabetes given
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Speaker 3: it's Diabetes Action Month, but the politics as well on
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Speaker 3: Politics Central from three o'clock was I had a couple
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Speaker 3: of really interesting interviews actually Marco Rubio's former chief of
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Speaker 3: staff staff Matt Terrell, talking about the just the Trump administration,
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Speaker 3: the landslide went and what we can look forward to.
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Speaker 3: And we carried it on that theme when we had
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Speaker 3: a chat with Maurs Williamson as well, who was the
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Speaker 3: console former consul general too to Los Angeles in Los
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Speaker 3: Angeles and just had his take on it as well.
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Speaker 3: So if you missed any of that then you can
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Speaker 3: go and check out the Weekend Collective podcast wherever you podcast,
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Speaker 3: but go to iHeartRadio anyway. Right now it is time
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Speaker 3: for smart money.
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Speaker 2: We want your calls.
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Speaker 3: Eight hundred eighty ten eighty text nine two nine two
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Speaker 3: and my guest, he's a regular on the show's a
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Speaker 3: finance writer and his name is He's written a bunch
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Speaker 3: of books as well.
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Speaker 2: Martin Hawes Today.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, Hi there, Tom, how are you.
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Speaker 2: I'm not too bad? Have you been good?
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Speaker 4: Good? Really good? Thank you? Very very interesting. Interested in
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Speaker 4: everything that's going on in the world at the moment,
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Speaker 4: and Trump is sort of the gift that keeps on giving.
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Speaker 4: Journos and people like that must be the life of
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Speaker 4: they would never sit around sucking their pencils to write
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Speaker 4: about I guess.
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Speaker 3: So although what came out of the politics, there is
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Speaker 3: a lot of people are a little bit more well,
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Speaker 3: you know, the people who be very activated about it,
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Speaker 3: and there's going to be obviously with American politics, there's
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Speaker 3: always a story there. But I'm fairly sanguine about it.
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Speaker 2: In a way.
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Speaker 3: I'm feeling really not as not as het up as
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Speaker 3: I thought I might be, because you know, we've been there,
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Speaker 3: done that, He's been there, done that, and the question
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Speaker 3: is we can just have more rational discussions about what
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Speaker 3: does it mean and do you have an interest you
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Speaker 3: would have an interest in that in terms of what
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Speaker 3: a Trump administration means for money, wouldn't you.
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Speaker 4: Yes, I certainly do with that. But I've followed politics
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Speaker 4: with interest since I was sixteen years old, and that
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Speaker 4: was a long time ago. So I'm you know, I'm
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Speaker 4: really interested. I'm almost podcasted out at the moment. I
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Speaker 4: get a lot of podcasts from all around the world,
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Speaker 4: and I'm listening listening to him. But the thing that
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Speaker 4: I would say about Trump is that it is just
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Speaker 4: so hard to know what he's going to He is
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Speaker 4: so mercurial that, you know, we just can't can't guess
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Speaker 4: what it would The other thing is that this is
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Speaker 4: and I think probably all American elections are fought on
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Speaker 4: sort of big ideas without ever getting into the detail
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Speaker 4: of policy. So here in New Zealand, you know, we
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Speaker 4: have an election and somebody says we're going to do
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Speaker 4: a and people will say, well is that cost it?
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Speaker 4: And it needs to be costed with an inch of
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Speaker 4: its life. In America, they just talk about big ideas.
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Speaker 4: You know, Trump says we're going going to lower tax Well,
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Speaker 4: what tax taxes are you going to lower? He doesn't
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Speaker 4: bother with that sort of detail. Neither did Harris, you know,
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Speaker 4: to be to be fair, they just sort of they
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Speaker 4: just sort of. It's kind of a popularity got contest almost.
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Speaker 2: Is it actually is, isn't it?
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Speaker 3: And look, in hindsight now I think that they focus,
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Speaker 3: the Democrats focused way too much on identity politics.
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Speaker 2: You're a woman, therefore she'd vote. You should vote for me,
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Speaker 2: You're you know, you're black, you should vote for me.
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Speaker 2: You're a Hispanic, you should vote for me.
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Speaker 3: Where in fact, yeah, that probably missed them obviously miss
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Speaker 3: the mark because it was a landslide.
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Speaker 2: Did you see it coming?
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Speaker 4: No, But I didn't see anything coming, So I wasn't
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Speaker 4: totally wrong or totally right. I couldn't. I just thought
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Speaker 4: it could go anyway.
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Speaker 2: So what sort of podcasts have you been?
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Speaker 3: Do you download podcasts from the point of view of
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Speaker 3: politics or do they have a sort of financial business
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Speaker 3: share market currency slant to them?
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Speaker 4: A bit of both, but more politics, like BBC, New
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Speaker 4: York Times, various other ones which are really about politics.
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Speaker 4: But you know, one of the things as an investor
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Speaker 4: that we always have to keep an eye on is politics,
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Speaker 4: and in particular geopolitics. And I don't think i've ever
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Speaker 4: in my fifty or getting close to sixty fifty or
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Speaker 4: sixty years of following this, I don't think I've ever
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Speaker 4: seen a more dangerous time in geo politics than what
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Speaker 4: we have at the moment. And of course Trump because
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Speaker 4: we don't know what he's going to do, you know,
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Speaker 4: and so vague that it's even more dangerous because we
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Speaker 4: just don't know how the cards are going to fall. Yeah,
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Speaker 4: and the other thing I I sort of can't. I
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Speaker 4: couldn't believe I heard this, but you know, Elon Musk
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Speaker 4: was on the and on the conversation and on the
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Speaker 4: call between Trump and Zelenski, who, Yeah, well you know
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Speaker 4: what's going on here now. You know, he's obviously bought
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Speaker 4: Elon Muskin and they've done the the loving bro thing,
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Speaker 4: even though they said they hated each other before. But
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Speaker 4: you know, Trump is just so he's not tied to
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Speaker 4: institutions and he's not tied to rules, and he would
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Speaker 4: be he can and he does do anything.
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Speaker 3: Yes, I don't know how I'd missed that one, but yeah,
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Speaker 3: Elon Musk ended up on a call with Volodimire's Donald Trump.
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Speaker 2: That.
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Speaker 3: Yes, that does make me a little nervous because it
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Speaker 3: just feels about feels a bit random, doesn't it.
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Speaker 4: Yes, Well, they were arguing a couple of days ago
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Speaker 4: about what levels of security clearance that they were going
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Speaker 4: to need, and of course Trump was saying, well, you know,
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Speaker 4: we don't need the FBI to get involved in this.
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Speaker 4: Was any of my good mates are fine.
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Speaker 2: Oh okay, it does that.
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Speaker 3: It learns a little groundhog day for me. Now that's
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Speaker 3: but random, So go I'm sorry.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I was just going to say, it's the
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Speaker 4: whole thing is very awkward. We we just don't know
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Speaker 4: what's going to happen if he did, for example, bring
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Speaker 4: his towerff Son as stated, you know, ten to twenty
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Speaker 4: percent for everyone, doesn't matter whether you're an ally or
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Speaker 4: a friend or indeed an enemy, you're going to have
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Speaker 4: at least ten to twenty percent and a sixty percent
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Speaker 4: on any tariffs from Chinese goods. So that, I mean,
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Speaker 4: that's got major economic ramification ramifications.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, they think do you think that those well, as
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Speaker 3: you even just said, and it's not the first time
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Speaker 3: I've seen that stat. Ten to twenty percent on all
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Speaker 3: goods from overseas countries is what he's talked about.
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Speaker 2: But there's a big.
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Speaker 3: Difference between ten percent and twenty percent, and there are
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Speaker 3: tariffs in place already and of course, if you're an
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Speaker 3: EV manufacturer in China, you're paying one hundred percent tariff
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Speaker 3: already on EV even under the Biden administration.
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Speaker 2: It's I mean, yeah, so.
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Speaker 4: What Tim You're almost speechless?
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Speaker 2: Well, I sort of am, just because because I don't
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Speaker 2: We just don't know, do we.
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Speaker 3: But also in terms of the context of is that
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Speaker 3: threat is it as dramatics as it sounds, or just
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Speaker 3: in terms of New Zealand exports, are we facing tariffs already?
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Speaker 3: And to be honest, look, you know we're already paying
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Speaker 3: ten percent or does it mean it's going to get worse?
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Speaker 2: I mean, we just don't know.
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Speaker 4: No, No, we don't know. The other two big things,
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Speaker 4: and this is important for your money, for your KIPI
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Speaker 4: saver or for those who are investing, is the two
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Speaker 4: things that he has promised is deregulation and tax cuts. Now, look,
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Speaker 4: yet again there's no there's no detail on this. But
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Speaker 4: that's why since Trump will become the president elect, that's
8:23
Speaker 4: why the sheer market in the US at least has
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Speaker 4: gone off on a tier. So shares of rivers and
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Speaker 4: sharp on Friday night, they came off a little a
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Speaker 4: little bit, but you know, very sharp rises. And if
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Speaker 4: you think of this strong a party point of view,
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Speaker 4: the Republicans are supposedly the business friendly party, and it
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Speaker 4: looks like the Republicans could have a clean sweep. So
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Speaker 4: tax cuts and deregulation, whatever tax cuts are and whatever
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Speaker 4: deregulation is a very very likely.
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Speaker 3: Because tax cuts can be inflationary, can't they Because it's
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Speaker 3: and here going to sounds like he is going.
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Speaker 2: To borrow a lot more. Yes, what are your thoughts
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Speaker 2: on that?
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Speaker 4: I think he'll he'll probably have to, but you know,
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Speaker 4: one of the things you've got to sit back and ask.
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Speaker 4: So they're going to be tax cuts, and that increases
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Speaker 4: corporate profitability, So the companies that are listed on the
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Speaker 4: share markets should have more profitability. Therefore share prices should
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Speaker 4: be higher. And deregulation cuts costs and allows people into
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Speaker 4: various markets much more easily, and therefore companies we tend
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Speaker 4: will tend to make a lot more profit. And that's
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Speaker 4: why the shares have gone up so much in the
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Speaker 4: last two or three days, and in my view it's
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Speaker 4: while they'll probably continue to go.
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Speaker 3: That's yeah, because I was wondering, if you know, just
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Speaker 3: the fact of the election win sort of spikes the
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Speaker 3: the share market a bit, but whether that that's it
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Speaker 3: sort of gets priced in already, But you think it's
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Speaker 3: just going to continue to up.
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Speaker 4: I think Prump's victory has taken the share market of
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Speaker 4: it by surprise, and I think it's pushed it up.
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Speaker 4: It'll be easier if there is the regulation, it'll be
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Speaker 4: easier to do business in the US. Presumably it'll be
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Speaker 4: more profitable. It's the US. US businesses are already babbulous
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Speaker 4: money making machines. They will become even more so. And
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Speaker 4: you know, I looked at my portfolio before I came
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Speaker 4: on here. I don't manage it but anymore. But I
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Speaker 4: have ten percent in the New Zealand share market. I
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Speaker 4: have about twenty five percent in the US market.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and what happened to that? So I can get it.
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Speaker 4: It's it's done extremely well. But your your keyp be, Savor,
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Speaker 4: Tim will be will be similarly invested. That Mine's not
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Speaker 4: terribly radical, really, but all these companies like you know
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Speaker 4: the well the Magnificent seven of the particularly Microsoft, Apple
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Speaker 4: and Amazon and so forth, all of these are going
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Speaker 4: to do extremely well. I think over the overcoming a
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Speaker 4: year or two or three or.
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Speaker 3: Four, how much of it gets how much of that
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Speaker 3: price bump happens sort of instantly, it gets priced in
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Speaker 3: because people are expecting an anticipation. In other words, has
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Speaker 3: the bump that's happened to a lot of those stocks?
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Speaker 3: I mean, how much should you be aware of the
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Speaker 3: fact that they might get ahead of themselves in terms
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Speaker 3: of their genuine value as opposed to the notion that
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Speaker 3: Trump's and this is good for the company, we must
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Speaker 3: be worth more. But actually the fundamentals might eventually go well,
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Speaker 3: not as much as you thought.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really good question, and you'll have to
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Speaker 4: give me a moment to fire up my crystal ball
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Speaker 4: and have a look and see what's going happened. I
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Speaker 4: think this is more than a short term bump. Yeah,
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Speaker 4: you know, I think that this is you know, the text,
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Speaker 4: maybe one off or there, maybe a couple of them,
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Speaker 4: who knows, But deregulation it seems to me to be
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Speaker 4: much more systemic. And you know, I think the Republicans,
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Speaker 4: if the Republicans control presidents in the House and in
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Speaker 4: the Senate, you know, I think you'll find it a
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Speaker 4: lot easier to do business. I think will be more
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Speaker 4: profitable Okay, do you like that? Well, I like businesses
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Speaker 4: to be profitable, but you know, if that's at the
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Speaker 4: cost of deregulation, which makes workplaces, for example, somewhat unsafe,
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Speaker 4: then I don't like it. It depends. It just depends
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Speaker 4: what it is.
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Speaker 3: I guess it actually, of course it depends because business
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Speaker 3: covers just a multitude of products and services and industries
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Speaker 3: and things, doesn't It's difficult to sort of sum it
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Speaker 3: up if you okay, well, it's just we're going to
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Speaker 3: throw it out by the way for you to give
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Speaker 3: us call on the Trump presidency. Does Is it something
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Speaker 3: that's going to entract attract your investment dollar in any
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Speaker 3: particular form regarding the sher market or industry and where
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Speaker 3: you're going to put your money. What do you think
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Speaker 3: it's going to do for for investment generally? Because Martin
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Speaker 3: is there are particular Are there particular industries.
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Speaker 2: That sort of.
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Speaker 3: Well, I'm assuming you're fired your crystal ball up, but
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Speaker 3: are there particular industries that might benefit more than others
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Speaker 3: as a result of the deregulation.
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Speaker 4: I think the batteries must be flat on the crystal ball,
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Speaker 4: because I would assume tech is the big one yes,
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Speaker 4: and that's the big one anyway, isn't it. Yep, tech
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Speaker 4: and all the stuff and forms one of the areas
13:44
Speaker 4: of tech. I really like the so called clean tech,
13:47
Speaker 4: which is technology designed to make the world a cleaner place,
13:53
Speaker 4: have better environments, have less carbon in the atmosphere, and
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Speaker 4: so forth. I don't think that that he is going
14:01
Speaker 4: to be so good under I mean, he's still a
14:05
Speaker 4: he's still a climate change DENI you know, listen to
14:09
Speaker 4: several podcasts that talk significantly about that. But if you
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Speaker 4: come to other tech, if you come to AI and
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Speaker 4: particularly but also biotechnology, and one little area that I
14:24
Speaker 4: particularly like is medical devices. So it's all the various
14:30
Speaker 4: things that help make us get well. And you know,
14:33
Speaker 4: there's a never ending demand with the baby boomer generation
14:37
Speaker 4: getting older and so forth, a never ending demand for
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Speaker 4: better and better health care.
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Speaker 2: That's an interesting one, isn't that. Okay, Look, we want
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Speaker 2: to take a break and we'll be back in just a.
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Speaker 3: Moment, but we want to know what your thoughts are
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Speaker 3: regarding the Trump presidency and what it means for where
14:53
Speaker 3: you might want to put your money. And doesn't mean
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Speaker 3: that there's suddenly the US share market with the US
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Speaker 3: businesses is the place where you want to put it.
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Speaker 3: I eight one hundred eighty ten to eighty text nine
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Speaker 3: nine two. My guest is Martin Horsey's financial writer, and
15:09
Speaker 3: it will be back in just a moment. It's twenty
15:11
Speaker 3: two minutes past five. Are you worried about funding a
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15:14
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16:07
Speaker 1: Helping you get on top of your busy life.
16:09
Speaker 2: Tim Beveridge on the Weekend Collective News.
16:12
Speaker 3: Talk Sad be Yes, and we are with Martin Hawes,
16:15
Speaker 3: a financial author and writer of No matter how many
16:18
Speaker 3: books is it?
16:19
Speaker 2: Martin twenty twenty four on have you have you released
16:24
Speaker 2: another one and you're still working.
16:26
Speaker 4: At there's another one and I think we might talk
16:28
Speaker 4: about it last time I was on air. I've sent
16:32
Speaker 4: the manuscript off for another one and the publisher publishers
16:35
Speaker 4: doing all the things that it does, like designing a
16:38
Speaker 4: cover and getting it punted and so forth. That will
16:40
Speaker 4: come out in March and that will be number twenty four.
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Speaker 3: Okay, look, we want your calls now on the on
16:47
Speaker 3: the outcome of the US election. Does it affect where
16:49
Speaker 3: you're going to put your money? Where does your optimism lie?
16:53
Speaker 3: Where do you think the money is going to your
16:54
Speaker 3: money is going to do the best? Martin has made
16:58
Speaker 3: the comment that the that I think if I'm not
17:01
Speaker 3: going to paraphrase you incorrectly, Martin, you can always jump
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Speaker 3: in if I do get wrong, that the US share
17:06
Speaker 3: market is looking like it's actually going to do pretty
17:08
Speaker 3: well and will continue to do quite well.
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Speaker 2: But that my guess.
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Speaker 3: My question is I always assume that once someone like
17:15
Speaker 3: you has said it, Martin, that that horse has bolted,
17:17
Speaker 3: and then I'll be too slow or too late.
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Speaker 4: Now. Yeah, not that comes back to what we're talking about,
17:24
Speaker 4: for not tim If you are a long term investa, yes,
17:28
Speaker 4: if you were a trader, and and look, I'm not
17:31
Speaker 4: saying that you're you know, if you brought shares that
17:34
Speaker 4: they would simply go up on a straight line. They weren't.
17:37
Speaker 4: There'll be a lot of volatile until they will be
17:40
Speaker 4: ups and downs, good times, bad times and so forth.
17:45
Speaker 4: But I think there'll be more good times than there
17:47
Speaker 4: are bad times. And my guess is that if you
17:51
Speaker 4: bought a basket of various technology shares and set on
17:56
Speaker 4: them for teen years, you'd be very pleased that you did.
18:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an interesting one actually, because there have been
18:04
Speaker 3: some superstar shares of course and technology and what is
18:07
Speaker 3: in video, they had some amazing growth.
18:09
Speaker 2: How are they looking at the moment? Do you follow them?
18:10
Speaker 1: Mate?
18:11
Speaker 4: Yes? So, because they're in my portfolio and they have
18:14
Speaker 4: been for a good time. They are so in my
18:16
Speaker 4: portfolio portfolio, they are a so called ten bagger, which
18:21
Speaker 4: means they've gone up. It means that they've gone up
18:24
Speaker 4: by a factor of ten, that they've multiplied multiplied ten times.
18:29
Speaker 4: And given that they still control seventy five percent of
18:33
Speaker 4: the chips that are needed for AI, I don't think
18:39
Speaker 4: that they a lot of the prices that we built in,
18:42
Speaker 4: but I think they're going to continue to do very well.
18:45
Speaker 4: They are an excellent company. The chips that they design,
18:49
Speaker 4: they don't make chips. This is computer chips. They don't
18:52
Speaker 4: make them. They just design them. They have somebody else
18:55
Speaker 4: making for them. The chips that they design are ahead
18:59
Speaker 4: of the pack, and their job is to keep ahead
19:02
Speaker 4: of the pack. And it looks like but I'm doing
19:04
Speaker 4: that fairly Saturday.
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Speaker 2: Fact really right.
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Speaker 3: We're going to take your calls one hundred and eighty
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Speaker 3: ten eighty. Initially, our conversation is going to be on
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Speaker 3: what does Donald Trump's win mean for share markets in particular,
19:16
Speaker 3: maybe the New Zealand markets as well. I tend to
19:18
Speaker 3: think probably I don't know what it's going to do there.
19:21
Speaker 3: But we're going to let's take some calls and we'll
19:22
Speaker 3: dig into that with Martin in just a moment.
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Speaker 2: Greg, Hello, good any general, general?
19:29
Speaker 4: I agree, high agree.
19:31
Speaker 5: Sorry, I'm in a bad communication zone. He gentlemen, how
19:35
Speaker 5: are you good?
19:36
Speaker 2: Good?
19:36
Speaker 4: Good?
19:38
Speaker 5: Just picking up on Jamie McKay's the host of the country. Yeah,
19:45
Speaker 5: the country that the red meat industry. This is a
19:48
Speaker 5: little bit off topic, but the lamb and bee for
19:52
Speaker 5: the red meat exports. He has had a lot of
19:55
Speaker 5: commentators in the last week talking about the potential for
20:00
Speaker 5: a little bit of a silver lining. This is, as
20:02
Speaker 5: I say, wee bit off topic, but it's.
20:05
Speaker 2: All about trade and money. You're welcome to carry on, Yeah,
20:08
Speaker 2: where you go.
20:10
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely. So you know he's going to go after
20:15
Speaker 5: Trump that is is going to go after the you know,
20:18
Speaker 5: the illegal immigrant workers that a lot of the farmers
20:21
Speaker 5: are employing, and they're going to tell the farmers to
20:23
Speaker 5: pay the going rate for for for labor, et cetera.
20:29
Speaker 5: So how do you how do you see agricultural exports
20:35
Speaker 5: with the red meat. And it's not just the burger meat,
20:39
Speaker 5: which we've been sending to the US for quite some time,
20:41
Speaker 5: but some of them are the premium meats and this
20:45
Speaker 5: is what Jamie has been talking about that could be
20:49
Speaker 5: particularly with a declining New Zealand dollar at the moment,
20:51
Speaker 5: that could be a pretty good windfall, could it not?
20:55
Speaker 4: It could be, Greg, And I would hesitate before I
20:58
Speaker 4: argued with Jamie McKay about agricultural stuff because he knows
21:03
Speaker 4: more about it than I do. But what happens if
21:06
Speaker 4: there's a ten or twenty percent on the meat that's
21:09
Speaker 4: landing on the shores of the US. Now they are
21:12
Speaker 4: our biggest I think the US is our biggest red
21:15
Speaker 4: meat buyer. So what happens to our lamb? And if
21:23
Speaker 4: that dries up?
21:25
Speaker 5: Now?
21:25
Speaker 4: All very well to say, well, the Americans may not
21:28
Speaker 4: be abut to produce enough of what if there's a
21:31
Speaker 4: ten or twenty percent tariff of or not? These things?
21:34
Speaker 4: You know, pricing is usually really sensitive.
21:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, what do you think of it? What did you
21:40
Speaker 2: think of it? Gregor do you do you think that's
21:43
Speaker 2: going to be?
21:46
Speaker 5: This was discussed on two cable news networks, NBC and
21:52
Speaker 5: also Fox about that very thing. And because the American farmers,
21:57
Speaker 5: if they are forced to not have have illegal immigrants
22:01
Speaker 5: working on their farms and paying them five six seven
22:04
Speaker 5: dollars now instead of fifteen sixteen, their production costs are
22:08
Speaker 5: going to go up and the New Zealand exporters will
22:11
Speaker 5: be able to work through maybe a tariff. The other
22:13
Speaker 5: thing I would say too, think the incumbent government that
22:16
Speaker 5: we have at the moment has probably got the best
22:21
Speaker 5: chance ever of shmewing Trump and maybe limiting that tariff,
22:28
Speaker 5: and maybe not a tariff at all, because American consumers
22:32
Speaker 5: are looking for quality products.
22:34
Speaker 3: Are you saying, so we've got a good chance because
22:37
Speaker 3: they want our quality products?
22:39
Speaker 5: Well, well exactly. I mean if you go if you
22:42
Speaker 5: go back to the previous six years of government governance
22:46
Speaker 5: that we had here, if Trump had been in power
22:50
Speaker 5: at that time, there would not be a lot of conversation.
22:55
Speaker 5: I remember just into Adourn referring to Trump as that
22:58
Speaker 5: guy or the other guy, and she would never wanted
23:00
Speaker 5: to sit down. So is it Tim Grocer who's traveling
23:04
Speaker 5: all over the world trying to.
23:07
Speaker 3: In terms of our ministers, it's Todd McLay and Winston Peters,
23:10
Speaker 3: who I think pretty good at their job, and Tim
23:12
Speaker 3: Grocer is yeah, I can't remember what his rollers.
23:15
Speaker 2: I guess this is.
23:19
Speaker 4: This is the part of the problem used to be
23:20
Speaker 4: that Yeah, yeah, it is. I see. The problem is
23:24
Speaker 4: Greek we just don't know, and I don't know. I mean,
23:29
Speaker 4: I'm not a politician, but I wouldn't back myself to
23:32
Speaker 4: go and get an appointment. What's Trump as Prime Minister
23:36
Speaker 4: of New Zealand. But b even if I got up
23:38
Speaker 4: to get him to concentrate for very long about New
23:44
Speaker 4: Zealand exceptionalism. That is, everybody else can have a tariff,
23:47
Speaker 4: but not us. And I think every man in the
23:50
Speaker 4: dog from European countries right through to South American ones
23:55
Speaker 4: will be trying that on if they do announce, And
24:00
Speaker 4: all of the podcasts and stuff that I read suggest
24:04
Speaker 4: that Trump loves tariffs and always has done.
24:08
Speaker 2: Actually, it is interesting.
24:09
Speaker 4: I think we'd being lucky to be making made an exceptional.
24:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, Greg, it's an interesting point you raised though about
24:15
Speaker 3: the cost about how everything's connected. So if he does
24:19
Speaker 3: successfully crack down on illegal immigrants and farms, a lot
24:22
Speaker 3: of the farming produce and work there has been sort
24:25
Speaker 3: of supported by cheap immigrant labor, it does I mean,
24:29
Speaker 3: it's a complex scenario, isn't it, Because it also assumes
24:33
Speaker 3: that he's going to be successful at trying to purge
24:35
Speaker 3: a million or two million illegal immigrants from the USA
24:38
Speaker 3: and I'm predicting failure on that one because it's just
24:43
Speaker 3: I think they are too embedded in American American culture.
24:46
Speaker 5: What do you reckon, Greg, Well, I see most of
24:50
Speaker 5: the Democratic state governors and are saying the Federals can
24:54
Speaker 5: come in, but we're going to defend these people to
24:58
Speaker 5: the very last, you know what. Ever, and that's that's
25:02
Speaker 5: that happens.
25:03
Speaker 2: That's going to be terrible.
25:05
Speaker 5: But I'm thinking more so that the American agricultural industry
25:11
Speaker 5: is going to find higher costs and producing what they're doing,
25:15
Speaker 5: and we have this quality thing that's going on. But
25:18
Speaker 5: at the end of the day, I mean, you look
25:21
Speaker 5: at Alban Easy in Australia has already said to Trump,
25:25
Speaker 5: you know, let's keep Orcus and all this sort of
25:28
Speaker 5: stuff going on. So this is another dimension to my conversation.
25:32
Speaker 5: What will Winston Peters do about being a supporter and
25:36
Speaker 5: principle of aucas if it were to mean that we
25:40
Speaker 5: could get a favorable trade deal?
25:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, Well, of course that's lots of things to
25:45
Speaker 3: plug in there, aren't there Martin.
25:46
Speaker 2: Thanks for call. Greg Sorry, did you have a comment there? Money, No,
25:50
Speaker 2: I didn't know.
25:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, because we're almost getting into a little bit of
25:54
Speaker 3: politics central there.
25:55
Speaker 2: I guess the thing about the the tariffs which make it,
26:00
Speaker 2: that makes it.
26:01
Speaker 3: We're playing so much guessing with this because there's an
26:05
Speaker 3: on the hustings I'm gonna and we know Trump likes likes,
26:08
Speaker 3: Trump likes tariffs, and he's talked about ten or twenty percent.
26:12
Speaker 3: But then again, there's a reason America imports a lot
26:15
Speaker 3: of our beef. It's because our beef is really good
26:18
Speaker 3: and they don't create enough of it. So it doesn't
26:21
Speaker 3: make sense that they would necessarily put a tariff on
26:25
Speaker 3: our beef because it's just going to hurt the American consumer,
26:30
Speaker 3: as opposed to if America was producing truckloads of beef,
26:35
Speaker 3: then there might be an argument for tariff so they
26:37
Speaker 3: can sell more to their own consumers. But if they
26:39
Speaker 3: need ours, why would they tariff it?
26:42
Speaker 4: Well, because they his comments were that there would be
26:46
Speaker 4: a blenkty tariff. And you know, they don't make enough bananas,
26:51
Speaker 4: for example, either, or they don't make any whatever's widgets,
26:57
Speaker 4: and there'll be lots of things, and there'll be lots
27:01
Speaker 4: of countries and companies that will be going well. You
27:03
Speaker 4: know that should apply to other people, but not not
27:06
Speaker 4: to us, whereas if he does this as a blanket,
27:10
Speaker 4: everything that comes into the country has a ten or
27:14
Speaker 4: twenty percent terrify lot, then that will be very hard
27:17
Speaker 4: to get through. Yeah, we have to really behave ourselves.
27:21
Speaker 2: I think paving ourselves make a difference.
27:23
Speaker 3: Look, we're going another call will go to in just
27:24
Speaker 3: a moment, but we will take a break. It's twenty
27:26
Speaker 3: three minutes to Sex News Talks.
27:28
Speaker 2: He'd b.
27:40
Speaker 3: Yes, Radio Gaga in a way, we're a little bit
27:42
Speaker 3: Radio Gaga. This is the health not the health of
27:45
Speaker 3: This is smart Money with Martin Hawes.
27:46
Speaker 2: I'm Tim Beverage.
27:47
Speaker 3: And because we're talking about that where the markets might
27:51
Speaker 3: go under a Trump presidency, Well, we know we've got
27:54
Speaker 3: the Trump presidency. What's it going to do to the
27:56
Speaker 3: share market? And where should you put your money? Oh,
27:58
Speaker 3: eight hundred eighty ten to eighty. I've got questions for Martin,
28:00
Speaker 3: but first let's go to Tony Hello.
28:04
Speaker 6: And Martin, look a good good question. At the start
28:06
Speaker 6: of the program, Martin said that he had a share
28:09
Speaker 6: that went up ten times you know from this original
28:12
Speaker 6: purchase price. But when would someone when would you think
28:16
Speaker 6: about actually, you know, in a situation like they're basically,
28:19
Speaker 6: you know, taking on shares that have gone up a lot.
28:22
Speaker 6: One of the factors that would make you basically think
28:25
Speaker 6: about sort of taking the money and not so much running,
28:28
Speaker 6: but maybe sort of Well, I've been lucky. I mean,
28:31
Speaker 6: you know, I've worked out well at this stage, but
28:33
Speaker 6: at some times you know you're going to sort of
28:36
Speaker 6: turn it into cash.
28:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, a really good question. My First of all,
28:42
Speaker 4: I'm not managing my own money. One of the reasons
28:45
Speaker 4: I don't manage my own money is that although I'm
28:48
Speaker 4: not a bad buyer of investments, I'm not a terribly
28:51
Speaker 4: good seller, and I tend to get have an emotionally
28:54
Speaker 4: attached and don't sell. But the basic principle would be
29:02
Speaker 4: you might look at selling something like an Nvidia if
29:06
Speaker 4: something substantial, systemic, or something major had happened within the
29:14
Speaker 4: company and its place in the market was no longer
29:19
Speaker 4: the event, you might sell the whole lot. The second
29:22
Speaker 4: thing to say is that as that sheer has gone up,
29:26
Speaker 4: my managers have been what's called trimming it. That is,
29:30
Speaker 4: they've been selling little bits of it, you know. So
29:35
Speaker 4: for example, that might have started off as two percent
29:39
Speaker 4: of my total portfolio, as it went up, it turns
29:43
Speaker 4: into five percent. Now that's a fairly big slug for
29:46
Speaker 4: just one security in the portfolio. So I would my well,
29:52
Speaker 4: my managers, I keep talking about me doing this, I
29:54
Speaker 4: don't do. My managers have been trimming that periodically as
29:59
Speaker 4: it's too Now I wish they hadn't trimmed it. It
30:01
Speaker 4: would be but it would be a big chunk.
30:04
Speaker 2: Now.
30:04
Speaker 4: It might be twenty percent of the portfolio now if
30:07
Speaker 4: it hadn't been trimmed. But you are talking to somebody
30:11
Speaker 4: who's not a very good seller of shares. My instinct
30:14
Speaker 4: isn't the sell.
30:15
Speaker 6: No.
30:16
Speaker 4: I A I work on a basis, or I used
30:20
Speaker 4: to work on a basis that I would try to
30:22
Speaker 4: buy good businesses so that I wasn't buying shears I
30:27
Speaker 4: was buying I was actually buying a little bit of
30:29
Speaker 4: a business. I'd try to get that at a fair
30:32
Speaker 4: price or better, and then I don't trade. I tend
30:37
Speaker 4: to hold them for very long term, long term. My
30:40
Speaker 4: basic thing was to look at the big secular cycles
30:43
Speaker 4: and the really big things that are going on in
30:47
Speaker 4: the world and trying to play those from an investment
30:49
Speaker 4: point of view. The obvious one of them all that's different, guys,
30:52
Speaker 4: is something that I would be trying to play at
30:58
Speaker 4: the moment.
31:00
Speaker 6: Right, So you wouldn't subscribe to the velocity of living
31:03
Speaker 6: a bit in the next and moving it on where
31:05
Speaker 6: you've basically done well, it's not a good idea. You've
31:08
Speaker 6: basically sort of got a sort of maybe cheshire, but
31:11
Speaker 6: to secure and then your initial investment and then sell
31:14
Speaker 6: off little bits like your managers doing with your sees,
31:17
Speaker 6: Is that right?
31:18
Speaker 4: Yes, I'm not if I was managing my own money,
31:22
Speaker 4: I'm not going to sell out of a really good company.
31:26
Speaker 4: So as a really well run company, it's doing stuff
31:31
Speaker 4: that almost nobody else is doing it. It's got pricing power,
31:36
Speaker 4: so it's pushing up the price of its silicon chips
31:40
Speaker 4: more and more. So Yeah, I don't mind selling a
31:44
Speaker 4: little bit so it doesn't become too dominant within the portfolio.
31:47
Speaker 4: But I'm not going to get right out of it.
31:50
Speaker 6: Okay, thanks, Actually you do it.
31:56
Speaker 3: I mean the question about when to sell as you
31:59
Speaker 3: do a whole hour on that, really, isn't it? Because
32:02
Speaker 3: and hindsight's fambulous, isn't it.
32:05
Speaker 4: I love homesight. Yeah, you'd probably want somebody else on
32:09
Speaker 4: the show. Rather than me if you're going to be
32:11
Speaker 4: talking about selling, because I really, you know, it was
32:14
Speaker 4: one of the things that I identified about myself that
32:18
Speaker 4: I am a good buyer. I'm not a bad buyer,
32:22
Speaker 4: but I'm a very poor seller.
32:24
Speaker 3: Is it just a look, I know you don't like
32:27
Speaker 3: you're not going to give specific financial advice, but just
32:30
Speaker 3: as a banterish sort of question, I look at the
32:37
Speaker 3: tariff potentials, right, and I look at one of the
32:40
Speaker 3: guy who's in the tent with Trump, and that is
32:44
Speaker 3: Elon Musk. And my gut tells me, probably wouldn't hurt
32:48
Speaker 3: to buy Tesla shares. And then the other part of
32:52
Speaker 3: my gut says, well, I get told that usually the
32:54
Speaker 3: market is way quicker than I'll ever be, and that's
32:56
Speaker 3: probably been priced in. And I noticed that the share
32:59
Speaker 3: share price for Tesla since the fifth in November has
33:05
Speaker 3: gone up from two hundred and two hundred and fifty bucks, sorry,
33:09
Speaker 3: two hundred and forty dollars to three hundred and twenty already.
33:14
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was going to say, I think it's up
33:16
Speaker 4: twenty percent. So look, as a short term thing, you've
33:20
Speaker 4: missed the boat. If it's right that Tesla is going
33:25
Speaker 4: to be able to ride a particular, particularly favorable wave,
33:32
Speaker 4: and it'll be able to do that for ten years.
33:35
Speaker 4: Then yes, it'll have ups and downs, but maybe you
33:37
Speaker 4: should buy it because it it could be good at
33:40
Speaker 4: it almost at any price. If it really does well,
33:44
Speaker 4: I've no doubt that Musk will be doing his very
33:47
Speaker 4: best to leave off the relationship piece. Now I've got
33:51
Speaker 4: with the president elect of the United States.
33:54
Speaker 3: You know, the funny thing about the risk with that
33:56
Speaker 3: is is that there are and this is based on
34:00
Speaker 3: is that Trump has relationships which persist, but then he
34:03
Speaker 3: does have relationships where people fall out with them. I
34:05
Speaker 3: mean some of the people he put in his first administration,
34:08
Speaker 3: he loved them, and all of a sudden he fell
34:10
Speaker 3: out with them.
34:10
Speaker 2: My risk would be, my worry would be that if.
34:13
Speaker 3: Elon actually at some stage really I don't know, and
34:15
Speaker 3: I don't suspect he is going to but if they
34:18
Speaker 3: have a clash of egos suddenly and he falls out
34:20
Speaker 3: with Trump, then I don't know what that would mean.
34:23
Speaker 2: But that's These are the sorts of things.
34:25
Speaker 3: That at play, aren't they If you're narrowing your investment
34:28
Speaker 3: focus too much, and that's.
34:31
Speaker 4: Not the sort of thing I like an investment where
34:35
Speaker 4: it can they hang hang on a personal relationship, because
34:41
Speaker 4: I think you're absolutely right. The chances have been falling
34:44
Speaker 4: out at quite great Anthony Scaramucci last that I was
34:48
Speaker 4: six or seven days or something as a director of
34:52
Speaker 4: communications in the White House.
34:54
Speaker 2: Oh that's right.
34:54
Speaker 1: Yeah.
34:55
Speaker 2: That was a spectacularly short time and entertaining at the time,
34:58
Speaker 2: wasn't it.
34:59
Speaker 4: Yes?
34:59
Speaker 3: Yes, Well, what about people who are interested in in
35:02
Speaker 3: who think I mean, again, I know it's not specific advice,
35:07
Speaker 3: but say you decide you love tech stocks, and you think, look,
35:10
Speaker 3: I actually really believe that the nvideos of this world
35:13
Speaker 3: and other tech stocks. So I'm going to buy into
35:15
Speaker 3: a fund that focuses on American tech stocks. And again
35:20
Speaker 3: this is rule of thumb stuff, because everyone has their
35:23
Speaker 3: own appetite for risk. But there be those who think
35:25
Speaker 3: I'm want to stick everything I've got into American tech stocks.
35:28
Speaker 2: Is that?
35:29
Speaker 4: No? No, I mean I wouldn't do that. But what
35:32
Speaker 4: I would do, perhaps is have a fund that owned
35:35
Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred, which is the top
35:37
Speaker 4: five hundred companies now that has the magnificent seven to
35:41
Speaker 4: the top a dozen or so companies of that or
35:45
Speaker 4: say eight or ten companies are technology stocks. But then
35:49
Speaker 4: on top of that, I might have ten percent of
35:52
Speaker 4: a portfolio or something which is focused solely on technology,
35:58
Speaker 4: and also to focus on technologies that are outside of AI,
36:04
Speaker 4: outside of the likes of Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and so forth,
36:09
Speaker 4: and looking at things like medical devices and possibly even
36:14
Speaker 4: in spite of Trump, clean tech. Yeah, yeah, it may maybe,
36:21
Speaker 4: especially if it was involved around the world like I
36:25
Speaker 4: would potentially and I don't know of one that exists,
36:29
Speaker 4: but I would potentially buy a company in New Zealand
36:33
Speaker 4: that that solar you know, that was selling solar panels
36:37
Speaker 4: or something within New Zealand. Now I don't know whether one.
36:40
Speaker 4: I know that a lot of small providers, none of
36:43
Speaker 4: them listed. I don't think that you can buy on
36:44
Speaker 4: the shere market, but you know we you know we can.
36:49
Speaker 4: We can start putting solar panels on our roofs. And
36:52
Speaker 4: Trump is not going to care one way or the other.
36:55
Speaker 3: Well, the other thing is the world has an appetite
36:57
Speaker 3: for clean technology, and if those companies in America producing
37:00
Speaker 3: matter whether America wants to actually adopt all those technologies,
37:04
Speaker 3: which I suspect it still will, the world is still interested.
37:08
Speaker 2: So intuitively, it doesn't seem like it's such a dog.
37:13
Speaker 4: No. And the companies in the US that are trying
37:17
Speaker 4: to do direct carbon capture, for example, these are machines
37:20
Speaker 4: that suck in the atmosphere, strip out the carbon, turn
37:24
Speaker 4: the carbon into something solid like a big block, and
37:27
Speaker 4: dispose of that thick a hole. Now there are a
37:31
Speaker 4: lot of companies in the up not a lot, but
37:33
Speaker 4: there are companies in the US working on that, and
37:35
Speaker 4: in Switzerland and Finland they will carry Yeah, yeah, it does.
37:40
Speaker 4: They will carry on doing that. And Trump or no Trump,
37:44
Speaker 4: but it won't matter because the price of carbon will
37:48
Speaker 4: read the price of carbon probably who knows.
37:51
Speaker 3: That's fascinating probably Yeah, Okay, well, we'll come back to
37:54
Speaker 3: wrap up in just a moment.
37:55
Speaker 2: It is nine minutes to six. This is news talks.
37:59
Speaker 3: He'd be news, said be Tim Beveridge, my guest for
38:02
Speaker 3: Smart Money, as Martin Hawes Martin.
38:05
Speaker 2: Gosh, time flies it because we've.
38:06
Speaker 3: Sort of it's been more of an easy banter today
38:08
Speaker 3: because there is so much uncertainty about what's what America
38:11
Speaker 3: is going to do when it comes to tariffs and
38:13
Speaker 3: all that.
38:15
Speaker 2: Can I run past you? So you you you've made
38:18
Speaker 2: the comment that Trump.
38:20
Speaker 3: Is he likes tariffs, and he does like them broadly speaking,
38:25
Speaker 3: whereas we had Morris Williamson on and who did make
38:27
Speaker 3: the comment that he thinks that for a bunch of reasons,
38:31
Speaker 3: that it might not be the smartest thing to be
38:35
Speaker 3: his blanket with the tariffs and everything. He sort of
38:38
Speaker 3: thinks that there's a lot of bluster and that basically, look,
38:40
Speaker 3: we should just have a cup of tea and lie
38:42
Speaker 3: down and we'll it'll be fine, it won't be as bad.
38:45
Speaker 2: Does that inform your opinion at all?
38:48
Speaker 4: No, that's sort of it's exactly my opinion really right
38:51
Speaker 4: at the top of the show that we just don't
38:55
Speaker 4: know that, you know, I mean, he's so mercurial. But
39:02
Speaker 4: I think there's a reasonable chance we will see not
39:05
Speaker 4: so much tariffs. I think there's almost a certainty that
39:08
Speaker 4: we'll see tariffs on going. I mean there've been quite
39:12
Speaker 4: big tariffs under under Biden, yes, but that we might
39:17
Speaker 4: see there's there's a chance at least that we will
39:21
Speaker 4: see blanket tariffs. That is, every article that comes into
39:26
Speaker 4: the US as subject to a tariff. And I mean
39:30
Speaker 4: Morross Williams highly experiences the Minister of the crown. He's
39:34
Speaker 4: a Minister of Trade or something like that. Customers.
39:38
Speaker 3: I think I've got as well, something like that.
39:42
Speaker 4: He will know a lot about this, but we're all
39:47
Speaker 4: showing a dart at a dart board and to find
39:49
Speaker 4: the mause because we just don't know.
39:51
Speaker 2: It's quite a fit.
39:51
Speaker 3: It's been interesting to bander about it, and also just
39:54
Speaker 3: a few ideas about tech stocks and what it's going
39:56
Speaker 3: to do. And even we can make their own decisions,
39:57
Speaker 3: but it's always good to get good advice and and
40:00
Speaker 3: usually a good fund manager will do way better of
40:03
Speaker 3: managing your shares than you will.
40:04
Speaker 2: Isn't that right?
40:07
Speaker 4: Generally? I'm certainly finding I'm certainly finding that for myself.
40:12
Speaker 4: It's no longer imagining my money. I've handed my money
40:14
Speaker 4: over to others, and I think it hur's to say it,
40:18
Speaker 4: but I think they they are doing better than I
40:21
Speaker 4: was doing. I was doing okay, but I was only
40:23
Speaker 4: doing it.
40:24
Speaker 2: I don't mean you, I meant me probably no. Hey.
40:27
Speaker 3: And the good thing is, look, if they don't buy
40:29
Speaker 3: quite as much as bad beef, maybe we'll be able
40:31
Speaker 3: to get some of the good stuff. Because I was
40:32
Speaker 3: told by meat exporters like, oh, I know all the
40:34
Speaker 3: good stuff goes overseas.
40:35
Speaker 2: So maybe anyway. Hey, thanks, thanks so much mate for
40:39
Speaker 2: your time. Really appreciate it.
40:41
Speaker 3: Thanks Jerry, and thanks my producer, Tyre Roberts. Check out
40:45
Speaker 3: the podcast week and collect them on IUT radio and
40:47
Speaker 3: Sunday at six is next