Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The 3 Reasons Bitcoin is ABOUT To EXPLODE: Prepare Now | EP 1309

Transcript

The 3 Reasons Bitcoin is ABOUT To EXPLODE: Prepare Now | EP 1309 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Bitcoin is about to explode higher, but it's not for the
• 0:03
  reasons that most people think. Everybody's looking at the
• 0:08
  Bitcoin public treasury companies, but what they're not
• 0:12
  looking at is how much Bitcoin is being bought by the ETFs and
• 0:16
  the fact that we have billions of dollars worth of shorts that
• 0:20
  will be liquidated at $125,000 per coin.
• 0:26
  Today. Optia and myself, we're going to
• 0:28
  be looking at the three for why the real Bitcoin bull run hasn't
• 0:33
  even started yet and what we need to be paying attention to.
• 0:37
  Opti, what did you think about Bitcoin hitting $122,000 this
• 0:42
  morning? Well, you know, yesterday I was
• 0:45
  trolling that we got hit by the inverse Kramer.
• 0:48
  And I was pleasantly surprised this morning when I woke up to
• 0:52
  my friend's text saying we hit 122.
• 0:54
  So, you know, maybe, maybe we can avert the inverse Kramer
• 0:58
  here. And it starts ripping.
• 1:00
  And it really does feel like we are on the verge of that RIP.
• 1:03
  Like the price action right now. It's, it's starting to make me
• 1:07
  feel really bullish here. It it's starting to look very
• 1:09
  healthy. I don't know.
• 1:10
  Yesterday's candle did not look good, forget what it's called.
• 1:13
  It was like a bear hammer or something like that.
• 1:15
  Instead of wake up to 122 this morning, I'm like OK, like I am
• 1:19
  reading the markets correctly and the bears are not in
• 1:23
  control. I don't think they're anywhere
• 1:25
  close to being in control, my friend, because we are in August
• 1:29
  right now. It's the year after the halving
• 1:32
  and everybody knows that Bitcoin, while it's a 16 year
• 1:37
  old asset, it still follows some trends.
• 1:40
  There is a little bit of seasonality when it comes to
• 1:43
  Bitcoin and Q4, it is always the most bullish quarter when it
• 1:48
  comes to Bitcoin. It is so bullish that October,
• 1:52
  it actually has the name of being up October because it is
• 1:56
  nearly always green. So right now we are in August,
• 2:01
  August typically this is kind of like a 5050 month.
• 2:05
  You see a lot of red months, a lot of green months.
• 2:07
  September is also a little bit wishy washy.
• 2:11
  But when you get into October, November and December in a bull
• 2:16
  market year, you can see we've had some insane price rises.
• 2:20
  We can see the average price rise in October plus 23%, the
• 2:26
  average price rise in November plus 46%.
• 2:31
  That's an average opti. And if that were to repeat
• 2:34
  again, Bitcoin would be way over $250,000 by December 2025 and
• 2:42
  that is literally months away. Do you read into the Bitcoin
• 2:46
  seasonality? Do you give it any credence
• 2:48
  update? No, yeah, I, I, I truly believe
• 2:51
  in the seasonality of Bitcoin, as we've seen for, I don't know
• 2:55
  if you've been in Bitcoin for a long time, you do kind of notice
• 2:58
  that the Bitcoin price, it always kind of hits these
• 3:01
  certain times. Like, you know, the summer's
• 3:03
  usually kind of weak and then it'll start pumping around
• 3:05
  Christmas. We always joke about Bitcoin.
• 3:08
  The real Christmas is in Bitcoin because it starts pumping around
• 3:12
  October, November, December. And it looks like we're on the
• 3:16
  same trajectory. It looks like this is where
• 3:18
  we're going right now. And when you look at the
• 3:20
  seasonality, again, this is probably the most data points we
• 3:23
  have to really kind kind of try to parse the information in
• 3:27
  Bitcoin because if you look at just cycles, we have three data
• 3:30
  points. It's you can't really learn too
• 3:32
  much from just the cycle tops and cycle bottoms.
• 3:35
  But when you look at the monthly data, it does paint a, a great a
• 3:39
  way better picture. And I mean, just look at this,
• 3:42
  just look at just the overall green versus red ratio here.
• 3:46
  I know we always say that Bitcoin really only pumps like
• 3:49
  10-12 days out of the year, Like and we we mean like really
• 3:52
  pumps. But you look at here and I don't
• 3:54
  know, I mean, I am color blind here, but it looks like there's
• 3:57
  more green on this chart than anything else.
• 3:59
  So it looks like even if the percentages are kind of small,
• 4:02
  Let me let me let me kind of look in here.
• 4:05
  Let me yeah, zoom in a little. Let's look at this yeah.
• 4:08
  Even if some of these percentages are like very
• 4:11
  minimal greens, it still looks mainly positive on the chart
• 4:16
  around Bitcoin. So this is most likely why it is
• 4:19
  the best performing asset ever, because even if it only goes up
• 4:22
  .62% or something a month, it's still going up.
• 4:26
  Whereas if you're holding dollars, it's going down 2% a
• 4:30
  year. So I, I'm a, I'm a huge fan of
• 4:32
  the seasonality of Bitcoin, especially when you kind of
• 4:36
  overlay the, the cycle years. And since we all know, you know,
• 4:41
  1 red, 3 green, we are in the third green of a cycle kind of
• 4:45
  mimetic form here. And so with that being said, the
• 4:49
  Q3 and Q4 odds right now of it going absolutely nuclear,
• 4:54
  they're, they're working in our favor.
• 4:55
  And that's not even considering all the stuff that we've been
• 4:58
  covering in, in, in regards to the news stuff around Bitcoin.
• 5:01
  Like again, we've been saying it, we're a broken record.
• 5:04
  This is the most bullish news cycle and with all that kind of
• 5:08
  aligning at the perfect time and end of Q3Q4 kind of blow off
• 5:13
  top, it's hard not to be bullish, Luke.
• 5:17
  I'm incredibly bullish and, and again, this is kind of what we
• 5:20
  want to talk about today, Opti. I think people are, they're just
• 5:24
  looking at the wrong data. They're looking at the tariff
• 5:26
  data. They're looking at, oh, what's
• 5:28
  the Fed going to do? Is the Fed going to cut rates by
• 5:30
  .25 or .50? Oh, what's inflation?
• 5:34
  I think everybody is looking at the wrong data.
• 5:36
  They're looking at power laws, they're looking at power
• 5:38
  opinions, diminishing returns. And when you look at the bigger
• 5:42
  picture, things look incredibly bullish.
• 5:44
  Now, you mentioned one of my favorite charts there, Opti,
• 5:47
  that is looking at Bitcoins best 12 days every year.
• 5:51
  So this chart's actually looking at Bitcoins best 10 days.
• 5:55
  This is in the purple column and you can see we've got 11 years
• 5:59
  of history here and we can see very clearly Bitcoins best 10
• 6:03
  days in every year, it always outperforms the remaining 355
• 6:09
  days. And yes, that is true.
• 6:11
  For example, 2013 in bitcoins best 10 days, we saw 700%
• 6:17
  returns and in the rest of the 355 days we saw cumulative
• 6:23
  returns of 600%. So this just kind of shows and
• 6:27
  it goes to show what we're trying to illustrate today.
• 6:31
  Please do not trade your Bitcoin.
• 6:33
  Bitcoin will absolutely RIP faces off and it will explode
• 6:38
  much quicker than most people think.
• 6:40
  And if you are not in the market for Bitcoin's best 10 days, you
• 6:45
  can, you can see very clearly by the chart, you could sometimes
• 6:48
  get absolutely wrecked. Like look at 2014 Bitcoin's best
• 6:52
  10 days plus 201%. But the rest of the days -86%
• 7:00
  This is why I think traders lose a lot of money in Bitcoin
• 7:04
  because typically they're, they're not in Bitcoin.
• 7:06
  They miss the face melting 20% God candle.
• 7:10
  And then they try to buy in high and they end up getting they're
• 7:14
  eating red candles. OK.
• 7:16
  This is again why we always say here, all your models are
• 7:19
  destroyed. You need to be in the market.
• 7:22
  Please do not try to time the market because you're going to
• 7:25
  get absolutely wrecked. Yeah, no.
• 7:28
  And Luke actually like going a little further, kind of what I'm
• 7:30
  taking away. Well, First off is, is looking
• 7:32
  at the chart, if I was like a tradify guy, you know, like a
• 7:35
  traditional stonk kind of person, equities, treasuries, I
• 7:38
  I would also be looking at us like, what are these kids doing?
• 7:41
  Like this is the dumbest trade ever.
• 7:42
  Like, why would you go into a market that loses, you know,
• 7:46
  whatever X percentage 355 days out of the year, but it gets
• 7:50
  incredible gains 10 days out of the year.
• 7:53
  I mean, yeah, if you're just like, I'm buying one time and
• 7:56
  that's the only time I'm buying, then yeah, your odds are a lot
• 8:00
  worse. If if that's your strategy, your
• 8:02
  odds are not that good. But what this chart is kind of
• 8:05
  telling me as someone that capitulates his Fiat as soon as
• 8:08
  he gets it, or as other people like to call it a dollar cost
• 8:11
  average type strategy. Like if you are continuously
• 8:15
  buying throughout the year, throughout those 355 days,
• 8:18
  you're getting Bitcoin at a discount.
• 8:20
  And then you're you know, your cost basis gets cut in half or
• 8:24
  whatever cut by a certain percentage and then you get to
• 8:28
  get all of these games. And so This is why the strategy
• 8:31
  of literally just buy Bitcoin whenever you can with whatever
• 8:36
  money you have, this is the winning strategy because you
• 8:38
  never know when these ten days are happening.
• 8:40
  You just need to acquire a position, continuously acquire a
• 8:43
  position and you will see the upside.
• 8:46
  And if you're in the market long enough, you know, over a four
• 8:49
  year period, I think now maybe we move it back to like a six
• 8:53
  year period, you know, 8 year period doesn't sound as sexy,
• 8:57
  but you're gonna be in the green.
• 8:59
  We, everyone that's hung out with us in the chat, everyone
• 9:02
  that's been in the market past, I don't know, 2022 or something
• 9:06
  like that and is just a continuous Bitcoin buyer sees
• 9:10
  this play out very, very easily. It's like it's very maybe your
• 9:14
  first four years, you're kind of on the fence.
• 9:16
  You're like, man, I put in, I don't know, X amount of dollars
• 9:19
  and I only got like X + 100 dollars out of this.
• 9:23
  But when you zoom out and you look backwards over A46, you
• 9:27
  know I've done it eight years. It's you're like, wow, I forget
• 9:31
  how much money I put in. But now I'm also a lot higher
• 9:34
  than that and I'm good to go. Yeah.
• 9:36
  And this is again something that's we talk about a lot of
• 9:39
  optive. You've been in Bitcoin a while.
• 9:41
  Bitcoin is pretty much boring for like 3 1/2 years and then
• 9:45
  it's only really exciting for six months every four years.
• 9:49
  And again, so many people, they just get bored of Bitcoin.
• 9:52
  They get shaken out of Bitcoin and they don't stick around for
• 9:55
  the really parabolic phases of the four year cycle or they're
• 9:59
  just not positioned well enough. Like there's so many people
• 10:02
  sitting on bags of altcoins and trash coins and NFTS from last
• 10:07
  cycle because they think, they hope, they're praying that one
• 10:10
  day these things are going to pump.
• 10:12
  But I, I just feel like we're kind of starting to get to that
• 10:15
  point in the four year cycle where it feels as if things are
• 10:20
  going to really start ripping. And even if you like take a
• 10:22
  little bit of a look at the, the most recent like kind of price
• 10:25
  action, we've just been kind of meddling around.
• 10:29
  We've been flirting with that 120K all time high.
• 10:32
  And again, who knows if history will repeat, who knows if the
• 10:36
  models will continue being true. But if we do continue to see the
• 10:41
  same four year cycle playoffs, then the next three to four to
• 10:46
  five months to end in 2025, historically, it's going to be
• 10:51
  incredibly bullish. Again, we can talk a little bit
• 10:54
  more about why this time could be different bro in the culture
• 10:58
  section of today's live stream. But hey, just if I'm wrong and
• 11:03
  if this cycle is the exact same as previous cycles, we are now
• 11:07
  getting to the phase where things start to get a lot more
• 11:10
  interesting. And one of the reasons why I
• 11:13
  think things could be way more interesting this cycle, Opti is
• 11:17
  looking at what the ETFs are doing.
• 11:19
  See, everybody's looking at public treasury companies, but
• 11:22
  we're completely forgetting about what the ETFs are doing.
• 11:25
  And even them alone, they have bought 50,000 Bitcoin this year,
• 11:31
  while there's only been 18,000 Bitcoin mined.
• 11:35
  That's just insane in and of itself without even looking at
• 11:39
  the buying spree that Michael Saylor, David Bailey, who
• 11:43
  yesterday bought a ton of Bitcoin.
• 11:45
  All of these public companies, I think they're taking the
• 11:47
  limelight and now everybody's just watching what they're
• 11:50
  doing. Everybody's saying, oh, are
• 11:52
  these treasury companies a Ponzi scheme?
• 11:54
  What's going on? What happens if Saylor blows up,
• 11:57
  you know, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
• 11:59
  But what we're seeing is the ETFs continue buying Bitcoin
• 12:02
  nearly every day, and this is just creating a persistent bid
• 12:06
  under the price of Bitcoin. Yeah, no, I mean, look, I know
• 12:10
  there's a a lot of conversation about paper Bitcoin summer.
• 12:15
  I know that's like all the rage right now.
• 12:17
  It's like someone's manipulating the price.
• 12:19
  This is they're not buying real Bitcoin.
• 12:21
  From all the data I've seen, what Luke is saying is spot on.
• 12:25
  Like it's not just corporate treasuries that are scooping up
• 12:27
  a bit a lot of Bitcoin or projecting that they're going to
• 12:30
  scoop up a a lot of Bitcoin. Like, I forget what the number
• 12:33
  is, but we've, we've, I've heard in the last couple of weeks like
• 12:35
  $3 billion raised. And that doesn't even account
• 12:39
  for sailors that just does that like every week.
• 12:42
  And once all that money does get put into the market and they
• 12:47
  start acquiring Bitcoin, that those companies themselves could
• 12:51
  move this market. And then you account for the
• 12:54
  ETFs, how much they're scooping up.
• 12:56
  There is a lot of demand here. And I've been saying it for a
• 12:58
  last couple of weeks, like institutions are eating our
• 13:01
  lunch here because they got the capital and they got the
• 13:03
  conviction. And the the more individual
• 13:07
  retail investor, if you can call us that, a lot of a lot of
• 13:12
  individuals here are not able to scoop up as much Bitcoin as
• 13:16
  these big institutions. And it does seem like some
• 13:19
  people are taking their foot off the gas here.
• 13:22
  So, you know, I know there's a a lot of conversation around
• 13:26
  centralization concerns or or maybe rather honey pots here of
• 13:31
  is it safe for them to hold this much coin?
• 13:35
  The only way to really combat that guys is to buy more Bitcoin
• 13:38
  is to make sure that you're buying your own Bitcoin.
• 13:41
  This is how you win. Yeah, I mean, and we can see the
• 13:45
  potential honeypots. They're increasing in the amount
• 13:48
  of Bitcoin They hold this chart, I love to look at that nearly
• 13:51
  every day. And we can see right now between
• 13:53
  the ETFs, public companies, private companies and
• 13:56
  governments, those entities alone are sitting on like 3.6
• 14:00
  million Bitcoin. That's kind of insane.
• 14:03
  Is there a number there of there that gets you worried like of a
• 14:06
  potential honeypot? Is it 3,000,000 Bitcoin?
• 14:09
  Is it 5 million Bitcoin? Are there any numbers that scare
• 14:12
  you? Not really to be honest, I don't
• 14:15
  I, I, I truly believe in the idea of it doesn't matter how
• 14:18
  much coins someone holds, they really won't have more influence
• 14:22
  over the network than, you know, the combination of all of us
• 14:25
  holding coins. It's really the, the amount of
• 14:28
  economic nodes out there. And so yes, maybe they have more
• 14:32
  impact by one node, you know, like one vote, one computer
• 14:35
  here. But no, I, I'm not really that
• 14:38
  concerned to be honest, especially considering that this
• 14:41
  industry and for better or worse, really is becoming much
• 14:45
  more like regulated, becoming much more mature.
• 14:50
  While it's not above banks and Wall Street like individuals to,
• 14:55
  for lack of better terms, like commit fraud or commit some kind
• 14:59
  of fuckery. We all know FTX, I, I think now
• 15:04
  we have the spotlight on us so hard that these people aren't
• 15:08
  going to kind of, you know, slay their golden goose here.
• 15:10
  So it is concerning, I would say, because they are acquiring
• 15:15
  a lot of Bitcoin and I think only at this price does it make
• 15:19
  me concerned once the price goes up higher, they can't acquire as
• 15:22
  much Bitcoin. So I, I really not that
• 15:26
  concerned about it to be honest. And maybe that's a naive take
• 15:28
  here, Luke. Maybe I'm maybe I'm just like
• 15:31
  stupidly bullish on everything and I'm just like, it doesn't
• 15:33
  matter, man. Like it really doesn't matter.
• 15:35
  Just as long as more people are coming into the market, that's
• 15:38
  what really matters. Yeah, and that's also my take as
• 15:41
  well. A lot of people say, oh, but
• 15:42
  Luke, Bitcoin's failed because now BlackRock controls Bitcoin.
• 15:46
  Luke, Bitcoin's failed because now you're begging the
• 15:49
  governments to buy Bitcoin. And I just think all of that's
• 15:52
  wrong. Again, if, you know, the idea of
• 15:55
  diminishing returns were to be true, then I would never want
• 16:00
  the governments or the big money to ever get involved.
• 16:03
  Let's think about that for a minute.
• 16:04
  If only retail participants were they were the same retail
• 16:10
  participants and if the same people who were buying Bitcoin
• 16:12
  in 2013 and 2017, if they were the only people dominating the
• 16:17
  market today in 2025, then I would agree with this idea of
• 16:21
  diminishing returns or the power law.
• 16:23
  All of these models that say we're getting diminishing
• 16:26
  returns because each time retail is making a smaller and a
• 16:30
  smaller impact on Bitcoin as it's getting bigger and bigger.
• 16:34
  But the fact that now the dominant market, buyers in the
• 16:37
  space, governments, pension funds, banks, billionaires, now
• 16:42
  that these guys are involved, this for me confirms that
• 16:46
  Bitcoin is actually on the path it's supposed to be.
• 16:49
  And I believe Bitcoin is going to be the biggest store of value
• 16:53
  in the world. Again, we've got $900 trillion
• 16:56
  looking for a safe home today. We've got hundreds of trillions
• 16:59
  in the equity market. We got $350 trillion in a
• 17:02
  massively overpriced real estate market.
• 17:04
  We've got $100 trillion of bombs.
• 17:07
  I need to be careful what I call them, but people were actually
• 17:10
  trusting government paper. That's insane.
• 17:13
  And I just think Bitcoin will eventually be the biggest store
• 17:16
  of value bucket in the world. This isn't rocket science.
• 17:19
  Bitcoin is just the best vehicle.
• 17:20
  It's storing value. It has no rulers, and it has
• 17:24
  rules that everybody has to follow.
• 17:26
  Eventually everybody's going to figure out that that is much
• 17:28
  better to store value in than real estate, which has property
• 17:32
  tax, government tax, stamp duty like we have in Australia, and
• 17:37
  eventually unrealized capital gains that is coming to a
• 17:40
  country near you. You're living in the West.
• 17:42
  But again, and people are eventually going to be like, why
• 17:44
  am I holding this trashy asset that I have to pay 20% tax on
• 17:47
  every year? Why don't I just buy Bitcoin?
• 17:49
  So my base case is eventually we're going to see Bitcoin being
• 17:53
  the biggest store of value, whether that's 400 trillion, 500
• 17:57
  trillion. I'm not saying we're going there
• 17:59
  tomorrow, but I am saying we will be the biggest.
• 18:02
  And I'm not even saying Bitcoin's going to eat all of
• 18:04
  the money in the world. Again, straw man arguments, real
• 18:07
  estate is always going to have some value.
• 18:09
  It's just going to shrink to its utility value.
• 18:11
  We're not going to see this massive monetary premium.
• 18:14
  So again, my base case is Bitcoin's going to be $500
• 18:17
  trillion asset, but you're never going to get there unless
• 18:21
  BlackRock, the governments, the billionaires, and the massive
• 18:24
  corporations get involved in Bitcoin.
• 18:27
  I don't think this is a sign that Bitcoins failed just
• 18:29
  because they're sitting on three and a half million coins.
• 18:32
  I think this is a sign that Bitcoin has won and they're
• 18:35
  bending the knee to Bitcoin and Bitcoin is not going to just be
• 18:39
  digital gold or just another asset.
• 18:41
  Again, This is why I strongly believe that if Bitcoin just
• 18:45
  does what gold's done, it's failed.
• 18:48
  Again, gold today is $22 trillion.
• 18:51
  In a world where there's $900 trillion of money looking to
• 18:55
  store value, gold has completely been wrecked.
• 18:59
  What does that mean? Gold's less than like 2.5% of
• 19:04
  global money or global wealth and people think of that like a
• 19:08
  store of value. It's completely wrong.
• 19:10
  If you look back 100 years ago, gold or the thing that was
• 19:14
  supposed to be storing value, it represented thirty, 4050% of the
• 19:18
  wealth in an economy. It just makes sense if the if
• 19:22
  you're looking for a store of value, you put it all in the
• 19:24
  winning theme. The fact that gold's $20
• 19:27
  trillion today, it shows that it's failed and it's not money.
• 19:30
  That's again, it's 2% of global wealth.
• 19:33
  So I think people saying, oh, Bitcoin's just going to be
• 19:36
  digital gold, 20 trillion, $30 trillion, a $1,000,000 a coin,
• 19:40
  it's not going to do anything. It's going to get more and more
• 19:42
  boring each four year cycle. I think it's BS.
• 19:45
  And I just think for me, Opti, the fact that we've got
• 19:47
  governments and all these big boys coming in, that is
• 19:49
  confirmation that Bitcoin is going to be much bigger than
• 19:52
  gold. Yeah, no, 100% and and as
• 19:55
  Sephardo, I think you heard Luke Rock, he said Bitcoin has not
• 19:57
  failed. That's this argument.
• 19:58
  He said no, gold has failed. And I've said this before as
• 20:02
  well, like gold as money has failed.
• 20:04
  Like it's very clear if it didn't fail, we wouldn't have
• 20:06
  Fiat currencies today. And then further, we wouldn't
• 20:09
  have had to have created Bitcoin, or rather Satoshi
• 20:12
  wouldn't have had to create Bitcoin.
• 20:14
  But yeah, I like that. I, I like that framing.
• 20:17
  It's like a, a flipping of the framing on people's heads.
• 20:20
  Like, oh, but look at gold. Bitcoin's never going to get to
• 20:23
  gold. And you're like, yeah, we're
• 20:24
  going to blow past gold. Gold's trash.
• 20:26
  Like, yeah, gold's nice. I like holding it.
• 20:28
  It feels great, but it's not the global money.
• 20:31
  It literally went from, as you said, you know, 1/2 of every,
• 20:34
  every transaction in the world to what 2% of all transactions
• 20:39
  are like. If that's not a failure, I don't
• 20:41
  know what is. And to your point, I've been
• 20:43
  saying this as well on the show, Luke all the time.
• 20:45
  It's like people seem to forget just how much capital is in trad
• 20:51
  FI system. Like most of the capital is
• 20:53
  locked up in these, you know, market pools that cannot be
• 20:57
  tapped into Bitcoin until this year.
• 20:59
  And we're all looking at the price and saying, hey, you know,
• 21:02
  diminishing returns are here, bro.
• 21:03
  And you're like, I don't think so.
• 21:05
  I really don't think that that's the case.
• 21:07
  I think we are now just beginning to tap into these
• 21:10
  markets that Bitcoin was never able to get into.
• 21:13
  And really a lot of it is being led by Michael say.
• 21:17
  And then of course the ETFs. And now we're seeing as, as we
• 21:20
  mentioned this week, you know, we're we're seeing Ivy League
• 21:23
  pension funds get into Bitcoin, we're seeing sovereign wealth
• 21:25
  funds get into Bitcoin where potentially, I mean, depending
• 21:30
  on what you read in between the lines here, but it sounds like
• 21:34
  the US has been accumulating that Bitcoin.
• 21:37
  So, you know, Bo Hines leaves his position at the digital
• 21:40
  assets working group going into the private sector.
• 21:43
  Usually when this happens, that's like a clear indicator
• 21:46
  that he knows what is going to happen later.
• 21:49
  And I, I think that announcement is going to come very soon that,
• 21:52
  yeah, actually we've been stacking and we are #1 here in
• 21:57
  nation states adopting and accumulating Bitcoin.
• 22:00
  So it's hard to look at what's going on right now and being
• 22:04
  like, yeah, Bitcoin, Bitcoin diminishing returns are real.
• 22:07
  Dude. I'm like, I, you know, I don't
• 22:09
  know, maybe Luke and I are just getting ourselves a little too
• 22:11
  bull tarted on the show, but it just doesn't make sense to me.
• 22:13
  It literally makes no sense to me.
• 22:15
  And that's just from a gut. You know, I forget what my IQ
• 22:18
  was yesterday. 42 IQ take here. It just makes no sense to me.
• 22:23
  So few people actually hold this thing, and then within the
• 22:27
  people that do hold this, I think even fewer understand what
• 22:30
  is actually going on. I think as you say all the time,
• 22:34
  Opti, the math just does not math.
• 22:37
  And I don't know why, but we're seeing individuals sell a ton of
• 22:42
  Bitcoin. That's what this chart here is
• 22:44
  looking at. It's looking at the year to date
• 22:47
  change in Bitcoin holdings and we can see public companies,
• 22:53
  ETFs and Etps in these big grey and light green bars.
• 22:57
  They're buying a ton of Bitcoin. 200,000 have float into public
• 23:02
  companies, 200,000 into funds and Etps.
• 23:07
  And who's selling individuals in the yellow?
• 23:10
  It's the little guy. I don't know why we're selling,
• 23:13
  but we can see 158,000 Bitcoin sold by individuals and long
• 23:19
  term holders. Again, This is why we keep
• 23:21
  making these videos literally every day, twice a day,
• 23:24
  sometimes three times a day. Do not sell your Bitcoin to the
• 23:28
  institutions. The institutions are buying and
• 23:30
  they're buying for a reason. They know where this thing is
• 23:33
  going and I just think it's a matter of time before this thing
• 23:37
  really starts moving. And I don't think, you know,
• 23:40
  $150,000 Bitcoin is what we should be talking about up
• 23:43
  there. I think it's gone much, much
• 23:45
  higher than most people think. Well, Luke, someone in the chat
• 23:49
  just joined us recently and I, I apparently he's been watching
• 23:54
  our videos for a while and he's like, I've heard you and Luke
• 23:57
  say we're going to $1,000,000 by 2025.
• 24:00
  And if that doesn't happen, you guys are scammers.
• 24:02
  So we better hope he goes to a million this year.
• 24:04
  Our reputation's on the line. Yeah, I mean, jeez, I don't
• 24:07
  remember ever, ever telling someone it's going to $1,000,000
• 24:11
  in 2025 is 100% going to happen. What I have said is there are no
• 24:17
  certainties in life and everything is a probabilistic
• 24:20
  outcome. Anyone telling you they know
• 24:22
  exactly where the price of Bitcoin is going, they're lying.
• 24:25
  For me, what I have said and I will continue to say for a very
• 24:29
  long time is I think the probabilities that we hit
• 24:32
  $1,000,000 in 2025, it's much higher than most people actually
• 24:37
  think. Most people think the idea of
• 24:40
  and the probability of us hitting $1,000,000, it's less
• 24:43
  than 1%. Me personally, I think it's more
• 24:45
  like 10%. Again, it's not my base case.
• 24:48
  I'm not saying it's 99% confident it's going to happen,
• 24:51
  but I think a 10% probability of that outcome is much higher than
• 24:55
  most people think. And this is just based on pure
• 24:57
  numbers, like if you look at the Bitcoin bull market multiplier,
• 25:03
  if you look at what Bitcoin did in 2013 and 2017 and you take an
• 25:07
  average coin normally sees 66 X returns in a bull run from the
• 25:12
  bottom. OK, So if you map that onto the
• 25:15
  bottom, Bitcoin bottomed at 15,000.
• 25:17
  If Bitcoin just repeats what it did in 2013 and 2017, you're
• 25:21
  looking at Bitcoin way over $1,000,000 a coin.
• 25:24
  That's just the math. And for me, I don't like to look
• 25:26
  at the 2021 bull run because I think it was kind of a Muses
• 25:29
  Bitcoin bull run. It was a lot lower than most
• 25:33
  than most people expected. And again, that's because of all
• 25:35
  the reasons we talk about here on the show all the time.
• 25:38
  China banning Bitcoin mining, Tesla teaming up with China and
• 25:41
  stopping accepting Bitcoin for payment from Tesla at a very
• 25:45
  interesting time. World Economic Forum, BlackRock,
• 25:48
  proof of work, energy FUD. We thought all of it coalesced
• 25:52
  in 2021, but even if you use the data from the 2021 bull run, and
• 25:56
  if you take an average from the 20/21/2017 and 2013 Bitcoin bull
• 26:01
  runs, from memory the average multiplier was something like 20
• 26:05
  to 30X. So even that would indicate
• 26:07
  Bitcoin being well over $700,000 a coin.
• 26:10
  That is the base case if Bitcoin simply repeats what it does.
• 26:14
  And I don't know where people get this idea of Bitcoin seen
• 26:19
  diminishing returns and it has to top AT150K because we're
• 26:23
  seeing this cycle of diminishing returns.
• 26:25
  I don't think that's true. I think the big boys attacked
• 26:28
  the Bitcoin price in 2021 for a very calculated reason.
• 26:32
  They wanted to buy up their Bitcoin.
• 26:34
  They wanted to load their bags. My base case right now is that
• 26:38
  the big boys, the banks, the Larry Finks, the public
• 26:41
  companies, the governments who are who have been talking about
• 26:45
  strategic Bitcoin reserves for over a year now, they all have
• 26:48
  the bags packed. And it's my base case that we're
• 26:51
  going to see this thing absolutely ripped because now
• 26:53
  they have an incentive to let Bitcoin do what it's going to
• 26:56
  do. And I just think if Bitcoin does
• 26:58
  what it has done over the past three bull runs, we're looking
• 27:01
  at $1,000,000 Bitcoin. That's just if Bitcoin repeats
• 27:05
  history again, who knows if there's some sort of attack on
• 27:09
  Bitcoin at $200,000 a coin, maybe a government says, hey,
• 27:14
  let's attack this thing because I want to buy more.
• 27:16
  I'm not saying that's not going to happen.
• 27:18
  It could happen again. There's a 10% chance we top
• 27:22
  AT200K and it looks as if, God forbid it happens, but it looks
• 27:26
  as if I have to listen to the stupid power law narrative for
• 27:30
  another four years. I'm not saying it's impossible.
• 27:33
  I'm saying there's a 10% chance Bitcoin does top at 180 or 200
• 27:37
  and I have to eat crow for another four years.
• 27:40
  God forbid that happens and it might happen, but again, I think
• 27:43
  everything's a probability often.
• 27:45
  I don't ever remember saying it's going to $1,000,000 in
• 27:48
  2025. A 100% bet you have.
• 27:50
  I I don't think I don't think we said that either, but you never
• 27:53
  know. I do say some dumb things on the
• 27:55
  show sometimes. So I'll you know, yes, as as SF
• 28:00
  Hoddle said earlier, someone clip it.
• 28:01
  If I did say that clip it and I'll eat krill right now.
• 28:05
  But actually Luke, let's bring up the you said it.
• 28:08
  Maybe they will attack the price of Bitcoin AT200K.
• 28:11
  Bring up that long short liquidation chart because we we
• 28:14
  can already see where kind of the market is already making
• 28:19
  their moves here. And so let me see refresh this
• 28:22
  real quick because it has been changing very, very fast.
• 28:25
  So refresh this page and we can look at what you know, how much
• 28:29
  capital is, where and where we should be looking at.
• 28:33
  Go down, you got to go down. I think it's this one.
• 28:36
  Yeah, that one, Yeah. So zoom over this and and let's
• 28:40
  read this a little bit and we can start to see kind of where
• 28:43
  the capital is. So there you go, you know about
• 28:45
  2 billion of short liquidation leverage up until about 1:25 and
• 28:52
  some change. So until Bitcoin breaks 125,
• 28:57
  we're we'll probably be kind of fighting in this range.
• 29:01
  But it does look like the prices starting to get pretty healthy.
• 29:04
  As you said earlier, we saw the the highest daily close ever and
• 29:10
  now it looks like it's starting to make some moves.
• 29:13
  So maybe we will go and test 123 today.
• 29:17
  But if it breaks 123 and it goes towards 125, I think the the
• 29:22
  price range that we should be looking at is if it breaks 125,
• 29:27
  then then the race is on then then, then the game is really
• 29:30
  happening right here. And, and actually Luke and I
• 29:32
  were looking at this earlier before we went live and you can
• 29:36
  see a lot of spoof is a lot of spoofing happening at that this
• 29:40
  price range. So earlier this morning it was
• 29:42
  like 6 billion at 125. Now it's at like 2 billion.
• 29:46
  So if that's not an indicator of people getting scared of getting
• 29:49
  liquidated on their shorts right now at 125 K, this might be a
• 29:53
  sentiment change. And I don't know, maybe, you
• 29:56
  know, there's still a lot left in the day.
• 29:58
  It could break 125K and once it breaks that, I don't know.
• 30:02
  This is where the fun happened, Luke.
• 30:05
  This is when things really start moving, and that's a great
• 30:08
  point. We've seen so many people take
• 30:11
  shorts off. Does that mean they're less
• 30:13
  convinced that Bitcoin's price is going to go down?
• 30:17
  Maybe that is when the thing really rips.
• 30:20
  And I mean, like we looked at a while ago, Opti, there was this
• 30:23
  new report done looking at the Bitcoin multiplier effect.
• 30:27
  And they found that in the short term, on a monthly basis, the
• 30:31
  multiplier is like 8X. But in times of very low
• 30:36
  liquidity, like what I think we might be approaching here, if a
• 30:40
  lot of these shorts take their shorts off the market, the
• 30:43
  multiplier effect can be 25 X. This is again, why I don't, This
• 30:50
  is why Bitcoin can explode. And This is why Bitcoin's best
• 30:53
  10 days every year are massive. Like, again, just going back to
• 30:58
  2013. Let's really put this into
• 31:01
  perspective. Bitcoins best 10 days were up
• 31:05
  700%. That means on average Bitcoin is
• 31:09
  nearly doubling in 10 days that year.
• 31:12
  That means it's up by 70% for 10 days.
• 31:16
  If you average that out again, obviously 2013, it was a long
• 31:20
  time ago. Bitcoin was $1000 a coin.
• 31:23
  But even if you look at 2017 again, there's a reason why I'm
• 31:26
  showing you the bull run years. Bitcoins best 10 days were 353%.
• 31:32
  If you average that out, that means for 10 days in 2017
• 31:37
  Bitcoin is moving up by 35% in one day.
• 31:43
  That would represent waking up tomorrow, Opti and Bitcoin's at
• 31:46
  160. Let's go.
• 31:51
  You know, with, with that point in mind, I was, I was texting my
• 31:55
  buddy the other day and he's been notoriously bearish
• 32:00
  recently. And he, we basically saw the
• 32:05
  price start ripping. And my initial thought was like,
• 32:08
  I, I just can't wait till we wake up in the morning and the
• 32:10
  price is higher. And we do that every day.
• 32:13
  And if you guys weren't here in 2017 when it really started
• 32:16
  ripping like that, that, that euphoria phrase that you go
• 32:20
  through or euphoria phase that you go through is like nothing
• 32:25
  you've ever experienced before. Every morning you're kind of
• 32:27
  waking up like you can barely sleep cuz you're wondering, OK,
• 32:30
  what's the price going to do tomorrow morning?
• 32:32
  And you wake up and it's at the time it was like, you know,
• 32:35
  $1000 bigger than it was before. But $1000 used to be the all
• 32:39
  time high at Bitcoin around that time.
• 32:41
  So if this is the case, what Luke's saying is kind of the
• 32:45
  vibe I'm seeing what you're gonna wake up and then literally
• 32:50
  day by day, the price is going to go up 2040 fifty 60% or 60 KA
• 32:57
  day. Like I think that's not too far
• 32:59
  along on the horizon, Luke. But again, maybe maybe we're
• 33:04
  we're drinking our own kool-aid here, Luke.
• 33:05
  So you know, B let's we we should maybe sober bring it,
• 33:09
  bring it in a little bit. All we know it's going up.
• 33:12
  Well, that's never going to happen.
• 33:14
  That's never going to happen. As if we're going to bring it in
• 33:16
  on a Wednesday, opt in. That's insane.
• 33:19
  But I mean, for the people who weren't around in 2017, I was
• 33:22
  just a curious bystander in 2017, I was waiting for a dip to
• 33:26
  buy. And this is what I saw nearly
• 33:28
  every day. For example, on the 5th of
• 33:31
  December 2017, Bitcoin was at 11 K.
• 33:34
  Two days later on a Thursday, it was at 16.
• 33:37
  It was nearly doubling every couple of days.
• 33:40
  And again, I think this is, I think we're going to see a 2017
• 33:43
  bull run again. Let's go.
• 33:48
  It's Wednesday, baby. I just don't think people are
• 33:51
  prepared like October 2017 bitcoins at $4000 a coin.
• 33:56
  It even got down as low as 2900 in September.
• 34:00
  And then less than three months later in December, it's at
• 34:05
  19,000. That's like a what, 700% gain in
• 34:10
  10 weeks? Again, if Bitcoin repeated 2017,
• 34:16
  a 700% gain in 10 weeks would look like Bitcoin at $1,000,000
• 34:22
  by October. OK.
• 34:24
  Now you can actually clip Luke and say that he thinks he's
• 34:27
  going to $1,000,000 in 2025. Oh man, that's hilarious Bet.
• 34:31
  Your house on it 100. No, no, do not bet your house on
• 34:34
  it. This is not financial advice,
• 34:36
  OK? Not financial advice, but in all
• 34:39
  seriousness, I do think the probability of Bitcoin repeating
• 34:43
  what it did in 2017, it's not 0.1% like the majority believe
• 34:49
  it is. I just think it's a 20 to 30%
• 34:51
  chance that we repeat what we did in 2017.
• 34:54
  That's it. I I think it's far more likely
• 34:56
  than most people think. And this is what people need to
• 34:58
  prepare themselves for. And the reason why we get
• 35:01
  stupidly bullish on this show all the time optic, is because
• 35:04
  so many people in the chat weren't here in 2017.
• 35:07
  They think a normal ball run is 2021.
• 35:09
  I don't think it is, but who knows.
• 35:11
  Yeah, no, I agree. I, I like, I, I feel like a
• 35:15
  boomer now on the show because I just, we keep saying, remember
• 35:19
  the days of 2017. That was the good old days.
• 35:22
  And we haven't had it in so long that I would love to see one
• 35:26
  play out in 2025, especially when you see just the amount of
• 35:30
  interest around Bitcoin. And so if you kind of compound
• 35:35
  what we're seeing now with an incredible price ripping as
• 35:39
  well, this could this could get really crazy very quick.
• 35:44
  I was gonna say the H word here, but I'm not gonna say it because
• 35:47
  that's a a pure top signal confirmed when you have the the
• 35:52
  Bitcoin media guys saying hyper bitcoinization.
• 35:55
  So I'm not saying that is what's happening.
• 35:58
  I'm not even saying that I'm saying those words, but it would
• 36:01
  get absolutely crazy. Ah, Luke, I was going to shout
• 36:07
  out a a super chat here, but I lost it because of the no, I
• 36:14
  have it, I have it. So first of all, thank you to
• 36:17
  vault dweller $2.00 super chat and maybe we'll answer this may
• 36:20
  actually we'll maybe yeah. He he asks when do you think US
• 36:24
  makes Bitcoin legal tender? I don't think I don't think
• 36:27
  anytime soon. OK, let's I want to come back to
• 36:32
  the H word hyper bitcoinization. Yeah, yeah.
• 36:33
  We'll we'll talk about. That when do I think the US
• 36:37
  makes Bitcoin legal tender? For me, I subscribe to the
• 36:41
  thesis that maybe they already did, but they did it through El
• 36:45
  Salvador. I think maybe El Salvador was
• 36:49
  their testing grounds. Yeah.
• 36:50
  I mean, if you look at as well as some of the other countries
• 36:54
  who are super bullish on Bitcoin, I didn't think it's any
• 36:56
  coincidence that it's a ton of countries neighboring China.
• 37:00
  So we got Laos talking about publicly mining Bitcoin.
• 37:03
  We got the Kingdom of Bhutan. Both of these countries are very
• 37:06
  close to the Chinese border, but they're insignificant.
• 37:09
  So again, if you think about things from an optics
• 37:11
  perspective and 4D chess, China doesn't want to make Bitcoin
• 37:15
  legal tender, but they want to test what the market does and
• 37:18
  how the market reacts in a smaller country like Laos or the
• 37:22
  Kingdom of Bhutan makes Bitcoin legal tender.
• 37:24
  I don't think there's a 0% probability that El Salvador was
• 37:28
  the equivalent testing ground for America.
• 37:31
  Think about who neighbors America, Canada and Mexico.
• 37:34
  Both countries are way too big to make Bitcoin legal tender.
• 37:38
  It would make a massive splash and I think it would trigger a
• 37:41
  massive pump in the price of Bitcoin.
• 37:43
  And again, hypothetical thinking caps on right now, if you are
• 37:47
  America, you don't want the price to run away from you
• 37:50
  before you've got your bags packed.
• 37:53
  So I think maybe El Salvador is in Central America.
• 37:56
  It's one of the closest small countries to America.
• 38:00
  Again, there's there's obviously what happens with the MS13 gangs
• 38:04
  all getting deported from America to El Salvador in the
• 38:07
  1990s. Maybe a deal was made there,
• 38:10
  hey, to apologize for inundating your country with all of these
• 38:14
  gang members. You do this for us, we will
• 38:17
  benefit your country. You'll get a boost in tourism.
• 38:19
  You'll get a boost in publicity. Your Bitcoin treasury will
• 38:22
  appreciate. I don't know, just a theory, but
• 38:26
  OK. When does the US actually make
• 38:28
  Bitcoin legal tender? I think it's sooner than most
• 38:31
  people think, especially because we're now seeing this talk of
• 38:34
  strategic Bitcoin reserves. For me it happens before 20-30,
• 38:39
  so that's simply because by then the number of Bitcoin on
• 38:42
  exchanges, if the past five years of the trend of Bitcoin
• 38:47
  leaving the exchanges continues, we've got no Bitcoin on
• 38:50
  exchanges by 20/28/2029 and I think by then America's probably
• 38:54
  got its bags packed. So I think 2029 is when we'll
• 38:57
  see American Bitcoin Legal 10. Well, you know, Luke, I thought
• 39:01
  you were, you know, drinking your own kool-aid before, but do
• 39:04
  you have a tinfoil hat over there as well 'cause shut up.
• 39:08
  I do shut up. OK, all right, let's, let's keep
• 39:10
  the show moving. But before I do shout out to San
• 39:12
  Francisco Huddle for the $15 Super chat.
• 39:16
  He goes, we're going higher number go up tech a best
• 39:19
  performing asset in human history.
• 39:21
  This is the way. And then we got one more Ron
• 39:23
  PFKKYA Opti. I don't know what that I don't
• 39:29
  know what that means. I'm a boomer.
• 39:31
  How? How?
• 39:32
  Maybe they're maybe they're trying to tell me that I've got
• 39:35
  pink eye. Yeah, I don't know, dude.
• 39:36
  Luke. Luke lost a fight with an ice
• 39:38
  cube and he almost lost his eye. I'm not actually, I'm not gonna
• 39:44
  say it. I'm not gonna say what I told
• 39:46
  you this morning that maybe you joined some club at this morning
• 39:49
  and This is why you have a black eye.
• 39:51
  I didn't say it. I didn't say it, okay?
• 39:52
  I didn't say that, all right? I didn't say that.
• 39:55
  All right. Anyways, guys, before I move on,
• 39:57
  I do want to give you guys a huge shout out here.
• 40:01
  Everyone watching us, we truly appreciate it.
• 40:04
  Of course, smash the like button comment on this video.
• 40:07
  What do you think of the show in general?
• 40:09
  Maybe our bullishness, but just tell us what you think about the
• 40:12
  show. Maybe even tell us what we
• 40:13
  should do better. I'll take some constructive
• 40:15
  criticism here and of course, hit the subscribe button.
• 40:18
  Guys, we are dropping the best content period.
• 40:20
  Well, maybe it's us and Luke on his channel.
• 40:22
  We're dropping the best content period on YouTube.
• 40:25
  And then of course, moving forward, guys, I do want to give
• 40:27
  a huge shout out to our boys. Over at Bitcoin, well, make sure
• 40:32
  you sign up to bitcoinwell.com using the code Simply BTC or
• 40:38
  bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC. Scan the QR code, wait right
• 40:42
  here, scan it right here. And when you scan it and sign
• 40:46
  up, you have three chances to win a million sets.
• 40:48
  That's what, $1200 right now? Yeah, $1200 right now.
• 40:53
  All you have to do is sign up and then you toss a coin in the
• 40:56
  wishing well and you have a chance to win generational well,
• 40:59
  $1200 right now. So make sure you do that.
• 41:02
  And then of course, if you're listening to this and you have a
• 41:06
  lot of dollars or your local Fiat currency sitting on the
• 41:10
  sideline, make sure you reach out to the infinite well team
• 41:13
  and they will allow you to smash by 50K or more at a time.
• 41:18
  And they won't just let you run off.
• 41:20
  They will give you a white glove service so you can back up that
• 41:23
  coin and you can have this for generations.
• 41:26
  So here we go. We got a we got a great show for
• 41:28
  you guys. Let's just dive in.
• 41:30
  We went really long today, like so let's keep it moving.
• 41:40
  I want to give a shout out to our partner stamp seed.
• 41:42
  Is your Bitcoin and cold storage really secure?
• 41:45
  Are your seed phrases really secure?
• 41:48
  Stamp Seeds Do it yourself kit has everything you'll need for
• 41:51
  you to hammer your seed words into commercial grade titanium
• 41:55
  plates instead of just writing them down on paper.
• 41:58
  Paper is fragile, titanium plates are strong.
• 42:02
  Your words are actually stamped into the titanium plate with
• 42:06
  this hammer and these letter stamping tools.
• 42:09
  Once the words are in, they aren't going anywhere.
• 42:12
  No risk of the plate breaking apart and pieces falling
• 42:16
  everywhere. Titanium stamp seeds will
• 42:18
  survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire.
• 42:21
  They're also crush proof, waterproof, non corrosive, and
• 42:25
  time proof. And now you can customize your
• 42:28
  titanium seed plates. You can upload your design or
• 42:32
  logo and they will laser engrave it on the back of your seed
• 42:36
  plate, the opposite side of where the words are.
• 42:39
  Stamp your seed on Stamp seed and use promo code simply to get
• 42:44
  15% off anything on the Stamp se-ed.com store.
• 42:53
  Yeah, the chat, you guys are killing me right now.
• 42:55
  All right, anyways, I'm over here on Clark Moody's dashboard,
• 42:58
  bitcoin.clarkmoody.com. If you're new to Bitcoin, highly
• 43:01
  recommend this website. You can investigate the
• 43:04
  blockchain yourself, but currently I I've been just
• 43:07
  hitting, maybe you can say I'm getting lazy, but I'm just
• 43:10
  hitting the favorites here, the fan favorites.
• 43:11
  We are currently at a price of 121800I repeat $121,800 per
• 43:18
  Bitcoin, which is a look at that -1% decline from all time high.
• 43:23
  Guys, we have 1%. Dude, I'm going to just chart
• 43:25
  boy live here real quick. Jeez.
• 43:27
  We're we're pumping. Anyways, the block height is
• 43:30
  909,875 and the market cap is 2.42 trillion.
• 43:36
  Actually, dude, I might have to make a Luke since Luke's here.
• 43:40
  I think I'm going to have to make an audible, a live audible
• 43:43
  here because I was mentioning this yesterday and it looks like
• 43:48
  we are on the verge of taking over Google.
• 43:52
  So as you can see you guys, maybe we can do some quick math
• 43:56
  here, but we will overtake Google at a $2.46 trillion
• 44:02
  market cap. We are currently at what, 2.42?
• 44:07
  What's this say, oh, $2.421 trillion market cap?
• 44:12
  So you know, Luke, actually I'm doing some quick maths here, so
• 44:18
  it's probably wrong. You guys can Fact Check me in
• 44:21
  the chat. But it seems like that 125 K
• 44:24
  number that we were just chatting about, that might also
• 44:28
  kind of correlate to when we break and pass Google as the
• 44:32
  number 5th market asset by market cap.
• 44:36
  I don't know, maybe maybe I got to do some quick maths here.
• 44:41
  But it does seem I think that might correlate.
• 44:46
  So I was going to play a video for you guys, but it looks like
• 44:48
  we're climbing here, guys. It looks like things are
• 44:51
  ripping. We have we're 1% down from all
• 44:54
  time high. It looks like my poll of us
• 44:58
  passing all time high by end of the day might, might actually
• 45:03
  happen. So here I'll I'll switch it over
• 45:05
  here and then Luke, RIP it, RIP it about this asset market cap
• 45:10
  number. And then let me see if I can do
• 45:12
  some quick maths here while while you RIP it.
• 45:14
  Yeah, I mean, this is insane. The fact that literally 16 years
• 45:17
  ago Bitcoin was launched and it was zero.
• 45:19
  It was sent out to the cypherpunk mailing list and has
• 45:22
  no marketing behind it and has, you know, we we're not on, we
• 45:26
  don't, we don't own the CNBC to talk about how brilliant
• 45:29
  government bonds are. We don't have trillions of
• 45:32
  dollars like the real estate market does to lobby the
• 45:34
  government and create this propaganda around the necessity
• 45:38
  to buy a home. What we have is literally just
• 45:42
  better money. And right now we're at, what,
• 45:44
  nearly 2 1/2 trillion dollars of market cap?
• 45:47
  And we're about to continue climbing up that list.
• 45:49
  I think this is massive. I thought it was really
• 45:52
  interesting that we actually surpassed Amazon yesterday by
• 45:56
  market cap. And what did the founder of
• 46:00
  Amazon, Jeff Bezos, do on the exact same day he started
• 46:05
  accepting Bitcoin for payments for his other company, Blue
• 46:09
  Origin? Again, you guys know, I don't
• 46:12
  like to believe in many coincidences, but I just can't
• 46:16
  think that that is a coincidence that Bitcoin surpasses Amazon's
• 46:20
  market cap. And Jeff Bezos maybe tips his
• 46:24
  hat and says, yeah, you know what?
• 46:26
  You've got us Bitcoin, you're bigger than us.
• 46:28
  I don't know, maybe this is the last time that Bitcoin will be
• 46:31
  valued less than Amazon, the multi trillion dollar company.
• 46:35
  I I think there's some credence in in that kind of thought
• 46:38
  experiment, but I think any way you look at it, Bitcoin will
• 46:42
  eventually be that number one top spot.
• 46:44
  The only question that we're all asking ourselves is when, when
• 46:48
  is it going to happen and what is the path to go from here to
• 46:52
  there? My, my chips, they're kind of
• 46:57
  placed on the more bullish, more volatile outcome, so to say.
• 47:00
  I don't know where you stand on that one opt in, but I think
• 47:03
  it's going to happen a lot quicker and a lot more in a lot
• 47:06
  more of a volatile fashion than most people think.
• 47:09
  Yeah, well, I mean, I love where you started.
• 47:11
  You know, 16 years ago. It was, it was, you know, wasn't
• 47:16
  even a thing. And here we are figure well
• 47:19
  about to pass Google or Alphabet and that's just insane.
• 47:23
  And I know we always talk about how fast the development in the
• 47:28
  movement is in the space, but it's happening way faster than
• 47:33
  anything. I don't.
• 47:34
  I literally think the, the math, or rather the, the facts of it
• 47:37
  is, is that Bitcoin as a technology is being adopted
• 47:40
  faster than any other world changing technology we've ever
• 47:43
  seen. And it's just crazy because
• 47:45
  there is a prize attached to it as well, which is the price of
• 47:50
  Bitcoin. And so look guys, I think I did
• 47:52
  the math right. I'm, I'm again, my IQ is
• 47:55
  dropping live as we speak, but 125K times 21 million, which is
• 48:02
  how you get the market cap, right?
• 48:04
  That would be a $2.62 trillion market cap.
• 48:06
  So at 125 K, we are very securely in that number 5
• 48:12
  position. So I think that's going to be
• 48:16
  the number we're all looking at right now.
• 48:17
  Once we break 125, I think things are going to get crazy.
• 48:20
  But someone. OK, yeah, So, yeah, I, I think
• 48:25
  all right. So I think my math's right
• 48:27
  because he was saying, oh, really?
• 48:29
  It's just saying 135, but I think it's 125 guys.
• 48:32
  I'm, I'm pretty sure of that at this point.
• 48:34
  OK, SO125K so it might be what 123?
• 48:41
  It might be at all time high that we just knock off Google
• 48:45
  here. And then who's?
• 48:47
  And then we're gonna take another company.
• 48:48
  We're gonna take another company.
• 48:49
  After that, it's only a matter of time.
• 48:51
  That's gonna take Apple's at 3.445 trillion and then
• 48:55
  Microsoft's at 3.9, and then NVIDIA at #2 spots 4.4.
• 48:59
  So, you know, we let, let's just take our wins as they come and
• 49:04
  we'll just take Alphabet. We'll take Google this week.
• 49:06
  All right, let's we'll take Google this week, and then we'll
• 49:10
  start making that climb higher. So man, what a crazy week.
• 49:13
  It's already getting crazy out out here.
• 49:16
  And it looks like here, actually, I'm, I'm not going to
• 49:19
  show you this 'cause you guys are going to troll me.
• 49:21
  But the one minute chart, it's looking all right.
• 49:23
  All right, one minute chart. We're not one minute chart
• 49:25
  trading here, but it looks OK. All right, anyway, guys, I do
• 49:28
  want to keep it moving 'cause I I'm trying to get to the end so
• 49:33
  I can get Luke even more bullish.
• 49:34
  And we're going to talk about cycles here.
• 49:36
  But I do have some update on M2 supply, the USM 2 supply or so,
• 49:42
  M2 Global liquidity M2 from the US And guys, we just hit a new
• 49:47
  record number in the US in our debt.
• 49:49
  So looks like there's more money coming, guys.
• 49:52
  And you know what that means. The money printer is starting to
• 49:56
  get warmed up and it's got to find a home eventually and it
• 49:59
  will all lead to Bitcoin. So let's cover that.
• 50:03
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Let In, the leader
• 50:06
  in Bitcoin Back Loans unlock the liquidity in your Bitcoin
• 50:10
  without having to sell your Bitcoin.
• 50:12
  They've issued $9 billion in loans to over 10,000 customers
• 50:16
  since 2018. I absolutely love these guys.
• 50:20
  Not only do I have an account with them, but I also have a
• 50:22
  loan. And what I love about them is
• 50:24
  that there are no monthly payments and you could pay back
• 50:27
  the loan at any time. As soon as you send your Bitcoin
• 50:30
  as collateral, you'll have cash in your account within 20 4
• 50:33
  hours. Over 1005 star customer reviews
• 50:37
  and they've never lost a single dollar or sat of customer money.
• 50:41
  Go to learn dot leaden dot IO simply today and you'll get .25%
• 50:47
  off your first loan. I want to give a shout out to
• 50:50
  our partnersat123.com. Sovereignty isn't just about
• 50:54
  your money, it's about your communications too.
• 50:57
  When the grid goes down, most people go dark.
• 51:00
  Cell towers fail and hurricanes, cyber attacks and blackouts.
• 51:03
  But satellite phones, they don't rely on local infrastructure.
• 51:06
  Iridium has 77 satellites in orbit, giving you a Direct Line
• 51:10
  anywhere in the US, even offshore.
• 51:13
  If you hold your own Bitcoin keys, you should hold your own
• 51:16
  commstoosat123.com also has everything you need need to
• 51:20
  start building your Bitcoin. Citadel, Starlink, battery
• 51:23
  backups, Faraday bags to protect your hardware wallets and much
• 51:27
  much more. It's a one stop shop for anyone
• 51:30
  serious about resilience and off grid independence.
• 51:32
  Stay connected, stay independent, stay sovereign.
• 51:36
  Go to sat123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get
• 51:41
  15% off anything on the store. All right guys, I'm getting
• 51:54
  trolled in the chat. Everyone's calling me bearish
• 51:59
  and that we get Google today, but San Francisco Huddle, SF
• 52:02
  Huddle did the math at 123.5. We take Google provided Google
• 52:06
  doesn't move higher. So let's we're going to shoot
• 52:09
  125K is our mark here at simply Bitcoin, 125K is the mark.
• 52:14
  So we don't have to play these games.
• 52:15
  But anyways, moving forward, I don't know if you guys saw this
• 52:19
  and, and maybe this is just because we're Americans.
• 52:21
  Well, Luke's not, he's got a funny accent, but here, you
• 52:25
  know, we're American centric and for us here in the US, we just
• 52:30
  got a new crazy metric guys. So of course I'm using U.S. debt
• 52:33
  clock here. Check this out U.S.
• 52:35
  National debt has now officially crossed $37 trillion and
• 52:40
  climbing and as as I've been showing this is one of my
• 52:43
  favorite favorite sites. They did just update this guys
• 52:48
  and I finally found unfunded liabilities.
• 52:50
  They changed it, but it's still on here.
• 52:52
  So 37 trillion national debt and US total debt, which for some
• 52:57
  reason it doesn't work when I try to give you guys the, you
• 53:01
  know, the, the, the info up here, but $105 trillion, guys,
• 53:08
  105 trillion. And of course the interest on
• 53:10
  the debt is at 1 trillion. This is completely unfeasible.
• 53:14
  We were talking about the interest payments yesterday.
• 53:16
  Ray Dalio has been kind of talking about this.
• 53:18
  Larry Fink's been talking about if the US cannot get its debt
• 53:21
  under control, they have a problem losing world reserve
• 53:24
  currency status to Bitcoin. Well, you know, the debt just
• 53:28
  keeps climbing. And actually, I wish I could
• 53:30
  remember when it hit 36 trillion.
• 53:33
  I think that was 100 days ago. So at this rate, the US is
• 53:36
  increasing its debt by something like a trillion dollars every
• 53:42
  2-3 months. It's absolutely nuts.
• 53:45
  OK, now this is just the US, you know, maybe you don't care about
• 53:48
  the US, but moving forward we have over here
• 53:50
  fred.saintlouisfed.org and here is just the USM 2 money supply.
• 53:57
  And this has also hit a new all time high, roughly $22 trillion.
• 54:03
  You can see here, you know, in COVID it was 15.4 trillion and
• 54:08
  now we're at a $22 trillion M 2 supply.
• 54:13
  Now again, this is American centric, I live in America.
• 54:16
  This is kind of the big number we look at.
• 54:18
  But here is the global monetary supply, the global M2 supply.
• 54:24
  And maybe Luke wants to kind of hit the the fact that it's got
• 54:27
  the Bitcoin chart here, but you can see here the global M2
• 54:33
  monetary supply, the global liquidity has hit also an all
• 54:37
  time high of $109 trillion, which is absolutely nuts.
• 54:43
  They gotta find a home for this. And of course, this is only
• 54:45
  going to continue. And to the Keynesians out there
• 54:48
  that think this is feasible and they could you know, I forget
• 54:50
  what they say, they can take from the future for now, you
• 54:54
  know, print future prosperity to now so that we deserve it or
• 54:57
  whatever their meme was. I don't I don't believe in that.
• 55:00
  But you do have here the Bitcoin price over here.
• 55:04
  I'm on trading view and look, it's even on trading view now
• 55:06
  you could see the Bitcoin price. This is delayed usually and it
• 55:10
  seems to be bottom bottoming out at exactly the bottom of the
• 55:13
  global M2 money supply. So if this is the case, does
• 55:18
  this have the Bitcoin price here I?
• 55:21
  Think we're lagging? Yeah, it's lagging, but this is
• 55:27
  maybe, maybe I could go to source code?
• 55:29
  No. I've seen the same M2 money
• 55:32
  supply chart and it's even more parabolic right now, which
• 55:35
  means. Yeah, let me see.
• 55:36
  Bitcoin is going to play catch up.
• 55:39
  Let's see if I can find this. I think I had the old one, so
• 55:42
  I'm going to look for this. But Luke, how unfeasible is the
• 55:46
  fact that this debt is going higher, M2 money supply is
• 55:52
  continuing to go higher globally.
• 55:55
  It's not looking good, guys. If you are still in Fiat, it is
• 55:58
  not looking good. Yeah, I mean, it's just math.
• 56:01
  They're going to have to print money.
• 56:02
  And everybody's like, oh, but how do you know that?
• 56:04
  I mean, you just look at the debt.
• 56:06
  Opti pulled out the debt clock. America has a debt to GDP ratio
• 56:09
  above 120%. And if you look back through
• 56:12
  history, there's been 52 governments that have hit a 130%
• 56:16
  debt to GDP ratio since the year 1800.
• 56:19
  And if you look at 51 out of those 52 governments who hit
• 56:24
  that magic 130% number, they ended up defaulting on the debt
• 56:28
  within 15 years of them originally hitting it.
• 56:31
  So what does that default look like?
• 56:34
  How does a government default on its debt?
• 56:36
  Does a government put its hands up and say, all right, take my
• 56:39
  house, take all my, all my assets?
• 56:41
  We're we're defaulting on our debt.
• 56:43
  No, no, no, no, no. A government default looks like
• 56:46
  hyperinflation or in significant inflation, where they will
• 56:50
  simply get their magic money printer out.
• 56:53
  They would debase the money, they'll print a ton of money,
• 56:56
  devalue the money and pay back their enormous debt with the
• 56:59
  devalued dollars. And if you look back through the
• 57:02
  past 225 years of economic history, this is what every
• 57:06
  government does. And the fact that we have
• 57:09
  America, the majority of the Western countries like Portugal,
• 57:14
  Italy, Greece and Spain, all of the PIGS countries at or around
• 57:18
  that 130% debt to GDP ratio, I just think we're going to see a
• 57:22
  ton of money printed. And again, this is going to be
• 57:25
  really bullish for Bitcoin because we know that Bitcoin is
• 57:28
  the most sensitive asset to the money supply being increased.
• 57:32
  Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan did that study that you mentioned,
• 57:35
  Opti, where they looked at which assets are most sensitive to
• 57:38
  increases in the money supply. And it's Bitcoin, Bitcoin by
• 57:42
  far. So if we know money's going to
• 57:44
  have to be printed, why not own Bitcoin?
• 57:46
  You'd be crazy to not own Bitcoin or even have a small
• 57:50
  allocation to Bitcoin like Michael commonly says
• 57:54
  diversification is. Or well Michael says
• 57:58
  diversification is a bad idea. I will say that diversification
• 58:02
  is for idiots. I think that if you are
• 58:05
  diversifying your money, you just don't know what he's the
• 58:07
  best bet. Michael has a really great video
• 58:10
  where he gives this analogy. He's like, why would you tell
• 58:13
  LeBron James to diversify his time in a lot of different
• 58:17
  sports? Why don't we put LeBron in the
• 58:18
  swimming pool for 25% of his time?
• 58:21
  Or why don't we stick LeBron at the end of a ping pong table and
• 58:24
  play whack A mole playing table tennis with the Chinese guys?
• 58:28
  Why would you do that when Lebron's 6/6 at 13 years old and
• 58:32
  he's clearly destined to be a basketball superstar?
• 58:35
  You say LeBron spend 100% of your time playing basketball
• 58:39
  because that is clearly the best option for you and your future.
• 58:43
  It's the same with Bitcoin. Why would you just keep 20% of
• 58:47
  your money in Bitcoin when the rest of your money, the other
• 58:50
  80%, is clearly losing money? It's clearly more at risk.
• 58:55
  It clearly doesn't have the same in property rights that Bitcoin
• 58:58
  has. I just think you don't know, you
• 59:00
  don't understand Bitcoin if you've only got 20% of your
• 59:03
  money in Bitcoin. You don't understand money, you
• 59:05
  don't understand the history of money, you don't understand
• 59:07
  technology. That's not a shade of you.
• 59:09
  That's an encouragement to look into Bitcoin more.
• 59:12
  And again, this is a personal story.
• 59:14
  I didn't understand Bitcoin in 2018 when I had 20% of my net
• 59:18
  worth in Bitcoin. I thought I was too smart for my
• 59:20
  own good. I thought, oh, I'm, I'm so smart
• 59:23
  and clever. I've got 20% of my money in
• 59:24
  cash, 20% in gold and Silva, 20% in a business, 20% in Bitcoin.
• 59:30
  I'm so diversified. God, I'm smart.
• 59:33
  I was an idiot. I was a moron.
• 59:34
  I didn't understand money or Bitcoin or technology.
• 59:37
  And again, I just think if we know the money printer is going
• 59:40
  to turn on, there's only one right allocation and that right
• 59:44
  allocation is 1 greater than 80%.
• 59:47
  That's just my thoughts, not financial advice.
• 59:49
  As we always say here on the channel, this is only financial
• 59:52
  entertainment. But that's just how I think
• 59:53
  about them. Financial entertainment, I love
• 59:59
  it. Yeah, man, it's pretty simple
• 1:00:02
  and actually like it is interesting.
• 1:00:06
  I know inflation was one of the hot button topics here in the US
• 1:00:10
  in the this recent election, but.
• 1:00:13
  I think a lot of people still just kind of ignore this.
• 1:00:16
  Maybe it's too complex, maybe they can't think in 2nd order
• 1:00:19
  here and they don't really understand what's going on after
• 1:00:22
  that. And I, I do like with this
• 1:00:25
  winsome hacks comment here and we're seeing this play out in
• 1:00:28
  real time around the world. So when some hacks goes, when
• 1:00:32
  the capital controls come in and they will preventing you from
• 1:00:35
  getting your capital in a lifeboat, you will regret it.
• 1:00:37
  This is why you need to get off 0.
• 1:00:39
  So if getting to base, if, if your savings getting destroyed
• 1:00:43
  isn't the one thing that's going to get you to start to acquire
• 1:00:47
  Bitcoin, maybe a more fear mongering take that we're seeing
• 1:00:50
  play out in real time. Luke's done huge videos on this
• 1:00:53
  idea of the EU trying to freeze your savings account.
• 1:00:56
  We're kind of seeing, we're seeing a kind of a, a pivot here
• 1:00:59
  in the US with the recent executive order by Trump around
• 1:01:05
  unfair de banking practices. So it seems like maybe you'll be
• 1:01:08
  safe here for a little bit, but I wouldn't really hold my breath
• 1:01:11
  on on that happening. Or rather, you fully being
• 1:01:14
  protected. The only way to actually protect
• 1:01:16
  yourself is holding something that they can't stop, they
• 1:01:20
  cannot control something that cannot be debased.
• 1:01:22
  Like I'd much rather feel safe and sleep at night if I'm
• 1:01:27
  holding Bitcoin than hoping that my bank doesn't shut me down
• 1:01:30
  for, you know, saying something dumb on the Internet.
• 1:01:33
  Because like, that's literally my job here.
• 1:01:34
  So maybe I'm in a different boat than everyone else, but you got
• 1:01:38
  to get off 0 guys. This is simple.
• 1:01:41
  Well, it's worse than that. In the UK and Australia, you,
• 1:01:44
  you, you are getting your door kicked in by the police for
• 1:01:48
  saying something smart. On the Internet.
• 1:01:50
  You can't even face something dumb or inappropriate.
• 1:01:53
  You just share a meme that's intelligent and guess what
• 1:01:55
  you're going to hear. Knock, knock, knock.
• 1:01:58
  Sir, we saw your Facebook posts. We're here to arrest you.
• 1:02:01
  In the UK there's 12,000 arrests every single day for social
• 1:02:07
  media posts where you say 12. Hundred a day.
• 1:02:11
  No, I no, it's 12,000 a year. So it's about, oh, 12. 1000.
• 1:02:15
  OK 30 a day is insane. This just clearly shows your
• 1:02:21
  savings are not going to be safe.
• 1:02:23
  We've got France talking about citizenship based taxation in
• 1:02:26
  Australia. The government right now is
• 1:02:28
  trying to pass a law where they will tax your superannuation
• 1:02:31
  counts. That's a retirement account in
• 1:02:33
  Australia at 30% unrealized capital gains.
• 1:02:38
  You don't even have to sell anything.
• 1:02:39
  They're going to steal your money.
• 1:02:41
  It's the same in Canada. They're talking about new tax
• 1:02:43
  laws making it tougher to escape.
• 1:02:46
  Same in Spain. We're talking about wealth
• 1:02:48
  taxes. If you look at all of the
• 1:02:50
  Western countries that have too much debt, they're all doing the
• 1:02:52
  exact same thing. They're all trying to come after
• 1:02:55
  your savings, come after free speech.
• 1:02:58
  And this is going to end in a CBDC like Christine Lagarde is
• 1:03:01
  trying to pass in Europe. Sorry guys, my bad.
• 1:03:06
  I shouldn't have got her mad. Now she's taking it out on you
• 1:03:09
  guys. Right.
• 1:03:13
  No, I'm Joan. I'm telling.
• 1:03:14
  All right, let's move it. Let's keep it moving because
• 1:03:16
  this is where Luke will really shine is when we start talking
• 1:03:19
  about some bullish cycle theories, whether they're
• 1:03:22
  broken, whether they're not where we should be looking at
• 1:03:25
  bottoms and tops. I got a good thread from Adam
• 1:03:28
  back and then we're gonna chat about it.
• 1:03:30
  And I'm I'm pretty interested to hear Luke's take on this because
• 1:03:33
  I did just have this conversation with another
• 1:03:35
  Australian and he had an an interesting take on where you
• 1:03:40
  where people are taking, you know, their their bull
• 1:03:45
  multipliers happening here. So let let's get into this.
• 1:03:50
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
• 1:03:53
  Technology. Why Hive in 2025, unstoppable
• 1:03:57
  growth as the first ever public miner, Hive's position to
• 1:04:01
  quadruple their global footprint, making them one of
• 1:04:04
  the world's fastest growing miners in 2025.
• 1:04:07
  And with elite operations that consistently topped the industry
• 1:04:11
  in Bitcoin mine, per Exahash. Hive's now headquartered in the
• 1:04:15
  USA. They're lean and mean.
• 1:04:17
  They're green and clean, and they're rewriting the playbook
• 1:04:20
  on sustainable Bitcoin mining. You can catch the latest buzz at
• 1:04:25
  Hive Digital Tech or at Hive digitaltech.com.
• 1:04:34
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Bitcoin Ben dot IO.
• 1:04:38
  If you're into freedom Bitcoin and building a real community,
• 1:04:42
  this is for you. Gain exclusive access to real
• 1:04:45
  world members only private clubs across the globe featuring poker
• 1:04:50
  nights, expert LED classes, Co working spaces, educational
• 1:04:54
  meetups, live events and more. Current locations include
• 1:04:58
  Sarasota, Nashville, Boston, Dallas, Las Vegas and Saint
• 1:05:03
  Louis, with new clubs launching soon in West Palm Beach,
• 1:05:07
  Scottsdale, Alabama and beyond, not to mention Bitcoin Bends
• 1:05:12
  Resorts and El Salvador. There's three of them and
• 1:05:15
  they're absolutely beautiful. You'll also get access to the
• 1:05:18
  first fully backed Bitcoin bank with Fiat ramps and savings
• 1:05:24
  accounts. It's called private KeyBank and
• 1:05:27
  you guessed it, it's based out of El Salvador.
• 1:05:30
  Go peer-to-peer with Bitcoin bulk buys, tap into home equity
• 1:05:34
  for long term Bitcoin growth and join their exclusive mining
• 1:05:38
  pools. If you're interested in mining,
• 1:05:39
  what are you waiting for? Head over to Bitcoin bend dot
• 1:05:42
  IO. Join today where Bitcoin meets
• 1:05:45
  freedom. All right guys, so I saw this
• 1:05:53
  thread and it really made me think.
• 1:05:57
  So of course, this is a thread by Adam Back.
• 1:06:01
  Actually, let me let me just read the thread and then and
• 1:06:03
  then I'll give kind of my my context on it.
• 1:06:05
  So Adam backhoes reminder, last having cycle top was March 2024
• 1:06:10
  at 73.7 K cycle started May 2020.
• 1:06:14
  This cycle started April 2024. There were earlier tops April
• 1:06:18
  2021 at 64.8 K and November 2021 at 69 K Cycle end estimates
• 1:06:24
  March 2028. So for cycle top calls, Q42027
• 1:06:29
  or Q12028 is a four year interval from prior cycle top.
• 1:06:34
  Now some argue the top that counted normal time from cycle
• 1:06:38
  start was November 2021 at 69 K and that four year interval
• 1:06:42
  would be November 2025. Three months from now.
• 1:06:45
  Does it feel like the bull market will fade in three
• 1:06:48
  months? Who knows Personally, I don't
• 1:06:49
  think so. Dips aside, I'd expect more all
• 1:06:52
  time highs later. Now this is right up a Luke
• 1:06:57
  alley here because I think you've been saying it's you feel
• 1:07:01
  like it might be going longer. But I did bring up another
• 1:07:05
  Australian. I did have a conversation with
• 1:07:07
  Chuck maybe. And he was kind of we were
• 1:07:10
  trolling a little bit on this idea of like, it's very easy to
• 1:07:15
  kind of pick whatever data you want.
• 1:07:16
  And when you're looking at cycle bottoms, the cycle tops, he he's
• 1:07:21
  taking a more bearish take here. He's like, if you look at the
• 1:07:24
  cycle bottom of I believe here, I, I got to, I got to look it
• 1:07:27
  up. If you look at the cycle bottom,
• 1:07:30
  then the last bottom would have been, it's hard to really see
• 1:07:35
  which bottom to talk about. It could either be April, you
• 1:07:37
  know, March 2025, it could be September 2024 or is it, you
• 1:07:44
  know, January 23rd, 23. So if you're depending on which
• 1:07:51
  cycle bottom you're actually kind of doing your your chart
• 1:07:55
  bowling from, if you're doing Jan 23, then we're already at a
• 1:07:59
  pretty good, you know, cycle top area.
• 1:08:02
  And he's starting to feel like it might be getting toppy here.
• 1:08:05
  And we have Adam back saying this cycle bottom was where was
• 1:08:10
  he saying the cycle? Does he say it right here?
• 1:08:13
  No, he's doing tops. So the last cycle top would have
• 1:08:18
  been what is it April 2024 at 73 K or March 2024 at 73 K?
• 1:08:27
  So no, sorry, 202169 K and the four year cycle would be
• 1:08:34
  November of this year. Now I know we did start with the
• 1:08:40
  seasonality of Bitcoin and I do feel like November, it's going
• 1:08:45
  to get very frothy. But I'm also looking at the
• 1:08:49
  chart and it feels like we're doing some new stepwise
• 1:08:51
  functions here and it's doing this pump, consolidate pump.
• 1:08:57
  So I don't know, Luke, what's your thoughts on this idea of
• 1:09:02
  depending on where you kind of chart your cycle bottoms from,
• 1:09:07
  we might be getting choppy now. Do you think what this kind of
• 1:09:11
  consensus is, is that November 2025, it's going to kind of
• 1:09:15
  follow the same patterns we've seen or as Adam back saying
• 1:09:19
  here, you know, he's been here for a long time.
• 1:09:21
  He's like, I think 20272028, things are going to get very
• 1:09:26
  interesting here. So longer cycles, I'm OK with
• 1:09:31
  this. I like longer cycles.
• 1:09:33
  But what's your thoughts on this whole idea?
• 1:09:35
  Yeah. So I think it's becoming, this
• 1:09:38
  is the way I look at things. I think it's becoming more and
• 1:09:41
  more hard to accurately predict where the Bitcoin price is going
• 1:09:46
  to go. I personally think there's like
• 1:09:48
  a 30 to 40% chance we break cycles this cycle.
• 1:09:52
  I actually think it's more like 50% chance that we just
• 1:09:55
  completely break the cycles. What does that look like?
• 1:09:57
  It could look like anything. If Bitcoin goes above $250,000
• 1:10:01
  or about 2:30, that would like prove and cement the fact that
• 1:10:05
  diminishing returns has officially broken.
• 1:10:07
  I can't remember that number. It was like a 190 or 230 last
• 1:10:11
  time I looked. So I think there's a good 50%
• 1:10:13
  chance we just blow that away again.
• 1:10:16
  I, I think there's also a good chance we do see that Omega God
• 1:10:19
  candle. I don't think it's 2025 like I
• 1:10:23
  think it's 20 to 30% chance we see it in 2025.
• 1:10:26
  I more think we're definitely going to see that before 20-30.
• 1:10:30
  And that would just look like Bitcoin gapping from 200K to a
• 1:10:33
  million in a month or two. And again, I know those numbers
• 1:10:36
  sound crazy, but we showed you all the data earlier.
• 1:10:38
  Looking at the 2017 bull run, it's not crazy to see a 700%
• 1:10:43
  return in 10 weeks. We've seen that before in 2017.
• 1:10:47
  I just think that's going to happen again.
• 1:10:49
  So cycle theory again, I'm this is probably an unpopular
• 1:10:53
  opinion. I don't like to sit on the fence
• 1:10:55
  on most things, but I think now that we have the big boys
• 1:10:58
  involved it's now becoming more and more hard to predict what
• 1:11:02
  was happening. Predicting Bitcoin cycles was so
• 1:11:05
  much easier before 2020 when the same buyer, it was the dominant
• 1:11:09
  buyer in the space. Retail money was driving the
• 1:11:13
  Bitcoin bull cycles and we saw Bitcoin on exchanges continually
• 1:11:18
  grew from 2008 to 2020. For me, that would have been
• 1:11:21
  really easy to predict where we were going if the supply and the
• 1:11:26
  demand variables were the same. Post 2020, everything's
• 1:11:30
  different. So we're seeing less supply on
• 1:11:32
  exchanges and we've seen this for five years now.
• 1:11:35
  This is a consistent trend of Bitcoin leaving the exchanges.
• 1:11:38
  And now we've got a completely different buyer.
• 1:11:41
  We got demands coming from pools of money that have access to
• 1:11:45
  trillions of dollars of capital. So for me, it's really difficult
• 1:11:49
  to use that prior data and project out where we're going to
• 1:11:52
  go. And I think anybody doing this,
• 1:11:55
  I think they're going to be set up to be surprised on the
• 1:11:57
  upside. And just a just a comment on
• 1:12:01
  analysts and supply shocks and being bearish.
• 1:12:05
  Something I've noticed is that typically the most bearish
• 1:12:08
  people in the space or the most conservative people in the
• 1:12:12
  space, they don't believe in the supply shock because they're
• 1:12:15
  tracking the data incorrectly. And they think that cycles are
• 1:12:19
  going to continue because if you are selling a paid product, that
• 1:12:22
  is like the most comfortable, politically palatable opinion to
• 1:12:26
  try to sell, like, oh, it's just going to be the same.
• 1:12:28
  Nothing's changed. So we have to be smart and
• 1:12:30
  assess the data as we see the data.
• 1:12:32
  And for me, I just think any technical analysis or like any
• 1:12:35
  of these models, like power laws and power opinions, it's all
• 1:12:38
  just taking faulty data and just hoping that that faulty data
• 1:12:42
  continues being true long enough so that you can make some money
• 1:12:45
  off it. So again, I just think power law
• 1:12:47
  models on chain models, throw them all in the bin.
• 1:12:50
  Again, that's the most unpopular opinion to take in the Bitcoin
• 1:12:53
  space. All the models are wrong.
• 1:12:55
  I I just think that is true. That's going to happen and I
• 1:12:57
  have no idea where the cycle's going to go.
• 1:13:00
  All I encourage people to do is be prepared for Bitcoin, Bitcoin
• 1:13:03
  to top somewhere between 100 and $1,000,000 a coin.
• 1:13:07
  I will be significantly surprised if we go to 3,000,000
• 1:13:10
  a coin this cycle. I would be very surprised if
• 1:13:13
  that would happen, and I would be very surprised if Bitcoin's
• 1:13:15
  already topped at 120. But anywhere between those two
• 1:13:18
  numbers, I honestly have no idea.
• 1:13:21
  And I'm just throwing darts at a wall and just, you know, licking
• 1:13:24
  my finger and just kind of testing the thing to kind of see
• 1:13:27
  where things are going. I honestly have a clue.
• 1:13:30
  Well, it's funny you said that because there's a comment here
• 1:13:32
  and he goes, where is Luke getting these chances from?
• 1:13:36
  And you're like, I just, I'm kind of pulling them out of my
• 1:13:38
  ass. Exactly.
• 1:13:41
  It's a coin blip. Exactly.
• 1:13:43
  Yeah, it's you can run the numbers all you want and you can
• 1:13:46
  look at previous cycles versus future cycles.
• 1:13:48
  My base case is pretty simple. You look at the average bull run
• 1:13:52
  return and I think Bitcoin's going to do what it's done
• 1:13:54
  previously and if not, do more, and that indicates $700,000
• 1:13:59
  Bitcoin. If Bitcoin just repeats what it
• 1:14:01
  did in 2013, 20/17/2021 take the average we're looking at Bitcoin
• 1:14:05
  close to 1,000,000. Yeah, no, I mean, look, I just
• 1:14:09
  did. I I don't wanna get caught for
• 1:14:11
  being a full chart boy here, but my chart boy does confirm with
• 1:14:15
  my gut instinct that we're gonna see 300K this year.
• 1:14:20
  Yeah. And will we go longer?
• 1:14:23
  Who knows? Will we have a draw down in
• 1:14:27
  2026? I don't know, but I've been
• 1:14:29
  saying for over a year when we were at what?
• 1:14:32
  What was the price a year ago? I don't even remember what the
• 1:14:35
  price was a year ago here I. Remember that we were getting
• 1:14:38
  called out for being bullish when Bitcoin was at like 30 to
• 1:14:40
  $40,000 a coin. People were saying, oh, it's
• 1:14:43
  it's going to 11 K because Gareth Soloway drew some stupid
• 1:14:46
  lines on the chart and said bear market confirmed it's going to 9
• 1:14:49
  K, it's going to 3K. They want a liquidate sailor.
• 1:14:52
  I do remember that. Yeah, it was roughly like 40K,
• 1:14:57
  roughly ish 3840K. And I remember then I was
• 1:15:02
  basically saying it's going to 253100K and I'm sticking to my
• 1:15:07
  guns now and I'm getting more and more convinced that that is
• 1:15:10
  what's going on. I, I just it with everything
• 1:15:13
  we're talking about, it makes perfect sense to me.
• 1:15:16
  Well, or rather there is no logic to it.
• 1:15:18
  It's just, it's just an intuition here and I don't know
• 1:15:21
  about you guys, but I always trust my intuitions and it's
• 1:15:24
  usually right. It's gotten me this far.
• 1:15:26
  So my my gut feeling IS300K. Will we see the cycles play out?
• 1:15:33
  I don't know, like I really love Adam Back kind of saying these
• 1:15:36
  cycles are getting longer because as Ron P said in the
• 1:15:40
  chat, he's like, look, if I'm going to trust anyone on a price
• 1:15:42
  prediction, it's probably the guy that is mentioned in the
• 1:15:45
  white paper, the only guy mentioned in the white paper.
• 1:15:47
  He might know a little more than I do here, but and everyone
• 1:15:50
  knows he's a good trader. He's low key kind of a degen
• 1:15:53
  trader, but you know, he loves to do that.
• 1:15:56
  And I dude, it just feels like it feels like longer cycles from
• 1:16:01
  from what I'm kind of like again, intuitively grasping.
• 1:16:05
  It just feels like longer cycles with the new players coming in
• 1:16:08
  with this long term thinking. Again, you got to remember the
• 1:16:11
  newest players in the space are are all basically like Sailor
• 1:16:15
  acolytes here. Larry Fink basically is, you
• 1:16:19
  know, following the Sailor strategy, Michael Saylor
• 1:16:22
  himself, all the new Bitcoin treasury companies and their one
• 1:16:25
  motto is they don't ever want to sell this thing.
• 1:16:28
  So they are completely, completely, I think changing the
• 1:16:33
  fundamental structure of what's going on.
• 1:16:34
  And Luke, I think you said it the best a minute ago when you
• 1:16:38
  said that the last cycles were really driven by the same
• 1:16:43
  people, the same type of retail, you know, individual whales.
• 1:16:47
  And now there's a new entrant into the market.
• 1:16:50
  I think if this doesn't change the structure of the market,
• 1:16:53
  like, it just doesn't make sense to me.
• 1:16:57
  Like, things are changing in real time.
• 1:16:58
  Everything is changing. You know, as the saying goes, I
• 1:17:01
  think it's Sun Tzu, I believe can never step into the same
• 1:17:04
  river twice. We're no longer in the same
• 1:17:07
  river, guys. These things are changing
• 1:17:09
  rapidly in real time. So I'm starting to get bullish.
• 1:17:12
  But hey, we got six more months to figure out whether Luke and I
• 1:17:15
  are wrong or if we're right here.
• 1:17:17
  But we'll be, we'll, we'll continue to chat about this for
• 1:17:21
  the next 6 months, two years, five years, 10 years here.
• 1:17:27
  Let's see, Tao says 150K Max in 2025.
• 1:17:31
  Bro, Tao, I love how you are a public bear, but a private
• 1:17:37
  bulltard. I absolutely love it, dude.
• 1:17:41
  And thank you Lee for the $2.00 super, super chat.
• 1:17:45
  But I think I think he I don't know if he's shilling a shit
• 1:17:49
  coin in here, but you know, shout out to Jesus.
• 1:17:52
  I, I'm, I'm I, I fully endorse that.
• 1:17:55
  If that's not about a shit coin, if it's if, if it if it's not
• 1:18:00
  blasphemous, I fully endorse that message.
• 1:18:02
  But it seems a little blasphemous here.
• 1:18:04
  Anyways, Luke, thank you for coming on last minute.
• 1:18:08
  Don't get into more fights with an ice cube.
• 1:18:11
  Let's hope your eye does better tomorrow.
• 1:18:14
  It'll Tao. Don't call me a bear.
• 1:18:19
  Yeah, man. Really appreciate you coming on
• 1:18:21
  the show. Super last minute, guys.
• 1:18:23
  You're going to be stuck with me all week.
• 1:18:24
  I know tomorrow's going to have Sophie and then we're going to
• 1:18:28
  bring Chris in on Friday. So show's going to be just
• 1:18:34
  bullish Opti all week. I'm holding the team down.
• 1:18:37
  Nico is doing some very cool stuff in Finland right now.
• 1:18:41
  He's going to, I think it's called BTC.
• 1:18:44
  Hell, it's in Helsinki. It's a conference right now.
• 1:18:47
  He's had some incredible dinners.
• 1:18:49
  I'm sure he'll tell us all about this when he comes back on the
• 1:18:51
  show. And then I do want to give a
• 1:18:53
  shout out to kilowatt on on the orange pill app asking me about
• 1:18:58
  stuff right before I was going live on the show about the what,
• 1:19:01
  what's some good kilowatt that I should be looking for if I want
• 1:19:05
  to mine some Bitcoin? So, you know, I'm, I haven't
• 1:19:08
  been that active on there, but I, I want to, you know, give a
• 1:19:12
  shout out to him for for kind of reminding me to go on there and,
• 1:19:16
  and message. So if you guys are on Orange
• 1:19:18
  pill app, of course don't flood my DMS because they'll take me
• 1:19:21
  forever to get to them. But you guys can DM me directly,
• 1:19:24
  OK? Anyways guys, we love you.
• 1:19:26
  We will see you tomorrow. Tomorrow is what, Thursday,
• 1:19:29
  August 14th? We'll be back for another show
• 1:19:34
  at roughly 12:15 PM Eastern Time.
• 1:19:37
  We'll see you tomorrow guys. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:19:42
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:19:45
  mission to enable financial independence.