Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 11

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 11 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network and
0:16
Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
0:18
Speaker 1: Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
0:21
Speaker 1: We will review the five picks we put into the
0:26
Speaker 1: Favorites contest, discuss why we left some out, preview the
0:31
Speaker 1: early lines we already like for Week twelve. I'm joined
0:36
Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
0:41
Speaker 1: my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter Ellosa.
0:44
Speaker 2: I'm in, Hello, Chad. Hey, I want to say sorry
0:48
Speaker 2: about your Bears, but at least we had a winning week.
0:51
Speaker 1: I have such little expectations when it comes to the
0:55
Speaker 1: Bears that the fact they played great for the Bears
1:00
Speaker 1: and still lost the way they did is entirely on
1:04
Speaker 1: par and the fact that Matt Ibraflus considered himself to
1:08
Speaker 1: be a coaching genius who decides, yeah, I've got a
1:11
Speaker 1: time out, I've got thirty seconds left in the game.
1:15
Speaker 1: I can do something like maybe center the ball or
1:18
Speaker 1: even hand the ball off and gain five extra yards
1:21
Speaker 1: so my kick can have a little bit more loft,
1:25
Speaker 1: so it's not a line drive as a longer kick
1:28
Speaker 1: from a guy who does not have the biggest leg
1:29
Speaker 1: in the world. But whatever Matt Ebraflus does, Matt Ebraflus,
1:34
Speaker 1: it's why he won't be the coach of the Bears,
1:35
Speaker 1: why he shouldn't been in the coach of the Bears
1:37
Speaker 1: this season. The good news for us, we did have
1:40
Speaker 1: an early day or a winning day, and thanks to
1:43
Speaker 1: the early games, I feel like this was the most
1:46
Speaker 1: stress free contest Sunday we have had all season. We're
1:50
Speaker 1: three and two. Only one of those games was a
1:54
Speaker 1: blowout that was the Lions. Even the games that were
1:56
Speaker 1: in question, though in the early minutes, until in the
2:00
Speaker 1: early games, until the final minutes, felt like we had
2:02
Speaker 1: an edge. I'd argue that even the last game of
2:06
Speaker 1: the day, which was the Chiefs and the Bills, we
2:10
Speaker 1: felt like we had an edge because who would you
2:12
Speaker 1: rather have have the ball that Patrick mahomes in the
2:17
Speaker 1: final sixty seconds of a game. We'll get to all
2:20
Speaker 1: of that. Catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
2:24
Speaker 1: For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us
2:27
Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
2:30
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
2:36
Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
2:39
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
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3:16
Speaker 2: All right.
3:19
Speaker 1: Our only loss from the early slate was the Cleveland Browns.
3:23
Speaker 1: You tried to walk me off it. I said, we
3:26
Speaker 1: have to do it. It'll be good for the show. You
3:29
Speaker 1: know what. The problem with the good for the show
3:32
Speaker 1: logic is, which we have done often in our time together, Simon.
3:38
Speaker 1: It's terrible for the record. Terrible for the record. The
3:43
Speaker 1: Browns had more plays we had the Browns plus half
3:46
Speaker 1: a point. They ended up his favorites close to two
3:50
Speaker 1: more plays, more passing yards, more first downs. They also
3:53
Speaker 1: had only three point three yards per carry, were sacked
3:55
Speaker 1: three times, when three or thirteen on third downs. This
3:58
Speaker 1: was supposed to be the game where they and the
4:00
Speaker 1: ball down the Saints' throats and their defense was amazing,
4:03
Speaker 1: and none of that happened.
4:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, you got Taysom Hill. I mean Taysom Hill. I
4:09
Speaker 2: think I had like one hundred and thirty yards rushing,
4:12
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. It's just one of those games. I never
4:17
Speaker 2: trusted it, but you loved it. The number agreed with you,
4:20
Speaker 2: I mean professionals bet at with you. And then it
4:23
Speaker 2: felt like everybody was giving it out and it's like,
4:25
Speaker 2: oh man, is anyone taking the Saints here? It was
4:27
Speaker 2: just all Cleveland. So yeah, that was that was a miss.
4:32
Speaker 2: But it's it's just it's a tough year. Like there's
4:36
Speaker 2: other games like I wish you would have loved more,
4:38
Speaker 2: but you know I got while you were comping this game,
4:42
Speaker 2: it's like, let's fade this Saints team after emotional win,
4:45
Speaker 2: and you know, they looked ready, they looked prepared for
4:48
Speaker 2: this game. You can't stay the same for Cleveland. Cleveland
4:50
Speaker 2: just looked really dysfunctional that whole game. And yeah, they
4:54
Speaker 2: got out played by the Saints, so yeah tough. I mean,
4:57
Speaker 2: like you just said, though, they got blown out. So
4:58
Speaker 2: it was like I had that one on the TV screen.
5:01
Speaker 2: I just switched it off after a little while because
5:03
Speaker 2: it's like, this is not We're not coming back. We're
5:05
Speaker 2: down fourteen. At one point, I was like, we're not
5:06
Speaker 2: getting back from this. This is not not where you
5:09
Speaker 2: want Jameis Winston to be leading you back. Even though
5:11
Speaker 2: he actually didn't play that bad. I will say like
5:14
Speaker 2: he had a pretty incredible throw in the corner of
5:16
Speaker 2: the end zone. But Jamis the defense just no showed
5:20
Speaker 2: absolutely no show by the defense of Cleveland. So they're
5:23
Speaker 2: what two and eight, Now, that's a team that's totally
5:25
Speaker 2: done with the season.
5:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean our biggest fear in this game was
5:28
Speaker 1: Jamis actually didn't make any mistakes. The problem was their
5:33
Speaker 1: defense didn't get any pressure. Like the premise for this
5:36
Speaker 1: game was their defense would get pressure. Yeah, her defense
5:39
Speaker 1: would cause Derek Carr to make the mistakes that he
5:43
Speaker 1: always makes when he's under pressure. Because he had been
5:46
Speaker 1: so good last week, we thought they were overvalued this
5:48
Speaker 1: week by starting as a favorite. Derek Carr ended up
5:52
Speaker 1: twenty one to twenty seven. Meanwhile, the Browns did not
5:55
Speaker 1: stop the run. The Saints gained two hundred and ten
5:59
Speaker 1: yards on the ground average seven yards per carry. Like pathetic,
6:05
Speaker 1: pathetic display off of a bye against a team that
6:12
Speaker 1: has no proven players on the edge offensively, But none
6:16
Speaker 1: of that is as pathetic as Dustin Hopkins. Did you
6:24
Speaker 1: see any of that?
6:26
Speaker 2: I did now. I saw the game on when he
6:28
Speaker 2: was missing all those field goals.
6:29
Speaker 1: Dustin Hopkins missed multiple field goals in the first half,
6:32
Speaker 1: including a thirty two yarder that was waved off because
6:37
Speaker 1: of a New Orleans penalty. They gave the Browns a
6:40
Speaker 1: first down on the restarted series. I'm in my head,
6:45
Speaker 1: I'm like, fuck, Jamies is gonna throw like a pick,
6:50
Speaker 1: so there's gonna be no chance to even kick a
6:52
Speaker 1: shorter field goal. So of course he almost throws a
6:55
Speaker 1: pick in the red zone. The Browns end up having
6:59
Speaker 1: to try another field goal. Well, this time Dustin Hopkins
7:01
Speaker 1: missus from twenty seven all around. It was. It was
7:05
Speaker 1: now almost from the get go. They went for two
7:08
Speaker 1: when they were down seven to six, and they scored
7:11
Speaker 1: like just all around a bad game for the Browns.
7:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're they're just a really bad team, bad team.
7:19
Speaker 2: We tried getting cue of it. I thought we were smart,
7:22
Speaker 2: should just listen to our instincts, where we knew that
7:25
Speaker 2: at plus three it was okay to take it. It was
7:27
Speaker 2: a good number. Once it had moved as much as
7:29
Speaker 2: it did, we should have known just stay away, And
7:32
Speaker 2: unfortunately we did not, even though like it was a
7:35
Speaker 2: game that we had locked in that you know, if
7:37
Speaker 2: we had updated our picks this morning, maybe would it
7:39
Speaker 2: have taken out because we would have had a bad
7:41
Speaker 2: number on it. But yeah, unfortunately that was a game
7:43
Speaker 2: you loved, and I really didn't hate it enough to
7:46
Speaker 2: take it out, just because what we talked about the
7:48
Speaker 2: Saints team, it's like they're a bad team as well.
7:51
Speaker 2: Both these teams are bad. One team is clearly worse
7:54
Speaker 2: right now, and that's Cleveland.
7:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also I think we just at the end
7:57
Speaker 1: of the day, I would have been okay taking it out.
8:00
Speaker 1: We thought we had the best of the number, and
8:02
Speaker 1: while it hasn't mattered. It's still a bad habit to
8:05
Speaker 1: bet against it. So we left it. There were two
8:08
Speaker 1: games I think we could have put in there. I've
8:09
Speaker 1: got those marked for after we get through our five.
8:13
Speaker 1: Baltimore at Pittsburgh. We had Pittsburgh three and a half.
8:17
Speaker 1: Congrats on us for not overthinking. Congrats on us for
8:21
Speaker 1: pulling the trigger on the most obvious bet on the board.
8:25
Speaker 1: Going back to last Sunday night, all the Tomlin trends
8:28
Speaker 1: as a dog, all the Tomlin trends as a dog
8:31
Speaker 1: at home, all the trends of Harbaugh is a favorite,
8:33
Speaker 1: Lamar is a favorite. The trends for the underdogs in
8:35
Speaker 1: this series, all of them went the way they have
8:39
Speaker 1: been going for the past twenty years. Hooray.
8:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, my best bad days. Like you just said, it's
8:48
Speaker 2: the easy ones that are hard to you know, take.
8:51
Speaker 2: Like I was with you earlier in the week, I
8:53
Speaker 2: was like, is there something I'm missing because I didn't
8:55
Speaker 2: get why it was still three and a half. Even today,
8:57
Speaker 2: there was a bunch of books here in Jersey that
8:59
Speaker 2: were still three and a half, and it just never
9:00
Speaker 2: made sense. It's like, why aren't there professionals hammering this number.
9:04
Speaker 2: Why is this not three or two and a half
9:06
Speaker 2: by kickoff? So that was the only thing that kind
9:09
Speaker 2: of scared me because it felt like you just said,
9:11
Speaker 2: way too easy. We know this matchup, we know Lamar
9:14
Speaker 2: struggles against Pittsburgh whatever that weird voodoo is, and little
9:18
Speaker 2: do we know it's their kicker that it cost it
9:20
Speaker 2: for him. I mean, the Ravens, I don't know what
9:24
Speaker 2: they're gonna do. Justin Tucker, I mean, we've all been
9:27
Speaker 2: thinking it that he's cooked. It's tough to deny it.
9:30
Speaker 2: Like this guy can't hit him over fifty. Now he's
9:32
Speaker 2: missing the ones under fifty, which he just never did.
9:36
Speaker 2: It's tough when you're a kicker, you hit that wall
9:38
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, it's just different. And he
9:40
Speaker 2: is a liability of this team right now. And we
9:44
Speaker 2: got lucky for once with a kicker because, like you
9:46
Speaker 2: just talked, with the kickers missing, at one point, we
9:48
Speaker 2: had the Cleveland kicker miss and then they cut to
9:50
Speaker 2: the Rams kicker missing, and then it cut to this
9:53
Speaker 2: game with him missing. Justin Tucker, I'm like, okay, at
9:56
Speaker 2: least we got one out of the three games here
9:58
Speaker 2: going our way. But yeah, for once, Pittsburgh's kicker made
10:02
Speaker 2: all his kicks for us, and we like we joke
10:05
Speaker 2: that game is the easiest bet we make all year.
10:08
Speaker 2: That matchup. It's you take whoever the dog is and
10:10
Speaker 2: you bet the under, and both things were no sweats today.
10:14
Speaker 2: The plus three and a half was never in doubt,
10:16
Speaker 2: the under was never in doubt. So I wish they
10:19
Speaker 2: could all be that easy. Sometimes the trends are just
10:22
Speaker 2: that good chat you just can't overthink and just have
10:24
Speaker 2: to bet these smart trends.
10:26
Speaker 1: Well, the Steelers did make us a little bit anxious,
10:30
Speaker 1: I will say, because they could not score touchdowns and
10:34
Speaker 1: against Lamar Jackson, against the Ravens, as good as the
10:37
Speaker 1: Steelers defense is, and it was it was lights out today.
10:42
Speaker 1: If you're not scoring touchdowns and you're getting the red
10:44
Speaker 1: zone and you're only kicking field goals, you do leave
10:46
Speaker 1: yourself open to being vulnerable to losing your bet and
10:51
Speaker 1: losing that game, right, And there was a period in
10:54
Speaker 1: the first half it felt like the Ravens could dominate
10:58
Speaker 1: this game if they were able to get one or
11:01
Speaker 1: two touchdowns in the first half, like convert one of those,
11:04
Speaker 1: and they did towards the end of the first half,
11:07
Speaker 1: but it felt like this whole game in the first
11:09
Speaker 1: half was played between the forties right and just a
11:12
Speaker 1: field goal kicking contest, and the Steelers kept getting it.
11:16
Speaker 1: Did you ever feel nervous about this at all? Because
11:18
Speaker 1: I felt a little bit anxious about it when we
11:20
Speaker 1: got into the second half and the Steelers like could
11:23
Speaker 1: not get into the end zone.
11:24
Speaker 2: No, these games are just really stupid. I mean, it's
11:27
Speaker 2: just that all the turnovers they had as well Pittsburgh
11:30
Speaker 2: and like you just said, they won the game, and
11:32
Speaker 2: the Ravens scored two touchdowns, they scored zero touchdowns. Like
11:35
Speaker 2: it's just that's how these games are. So it's like,
11:38
Speaker 2: I don't know, I know people hate these teven games.
11:41
Speaker 2: These are literally my favorite football games to watch. It's
11:43
Speaker 2: like I love just ugly underdog, low scoring games with
11:47
Speaker 2: the under and it's just like that's just my favorite
11:50
Speaker 2: type of football. I know it's sickening for most people.
11:53
Speaker 2: As a better it's just so much fun to watch
11:55
Speaker 2: because every point matters so much. So I maybe you're right,
11:59
Speaker 2: maybe the only part of me that really thought anxious
12:01
Speaker 2: with the very end win. You know they're going for
12:03
Speaker 2: two and it's just like Okay, could we lose this,
12:06
Speaker 2: because then go to overtime and somehow Lamar gets the
12:08
Speaker 2: six and we do lose. But honestly, the whole game
12:11
Speaker 2: never really worried about it. I mean, I think we
12:14
Speaker 2: started the game out the gates of what up six nothing,
12:17
Speaker 2: The Ravens scored seven to six. Then at half it's
12:20
Speaker 2: it's nine to seven. It's like, okay, as long as
12:22
Speaker 2: they keep these this weird type of score, we're going
12:25
Speaker 2: to cover this three and a half for three, Like
12:27
Speaker 2: that's that's what we needed, is just a weird number
12:29
Speaker 2: to land on it.
12:30
Speaker 1: At fifteen ten, the Steelers were near the Ravens goal line.
12:34
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson got pressured. He threw the ball out of
12:37
Speaker 1: bounds and out of the end zone, and my son,
12:40
Speaker 1: who was sitting next to me, said, I feel like
12:42
Speaker 1: he is in this game. I feel like he is
12:44
Speaker 1: constantly throwing the ball away, and in my I said
12:48
Speaker 1: out loud, that's what we like about him right now,
12:51
Speaker 1: as opposed to someone like justin Fields. He's he's not
12:56
Speaker 1: trying to reach very next play touchdown or interception in
13:03
Speaker 1: the back of the end zone and what could have
13:05
Speaker 1: been an eighteen to ten lead turns into a Ravens
13:08
Speaker 1: with the ball. Unfortunately, like it played out our way
13:11
Speaker 1: and everything you said, here's the most important thing. Ravens
13:15
Speaker 1: are now seven and four, Steelers are eight and two.
13:19
Speaker 1: The Ravens have looked terrible at times offensively, especially against
13:24
Speaker 1: good teams. So what do we take away from this
13:28
Speaker 1: about the Ravens right now?
13:31
Speaker 2: I mean, nothing's really changed. I thought they Honestly, I thought, okay,
13:35
Speaker 2: those of I'll figure it out and win this division.
13:37
Speaker 2: But yeah, Pittsburgh now just being the Commanders and then
13:40
Speaker 2: turn around and winning this game. It's like, how do
13:43
Speaker 2: we not give them their flowers and take them more serious?
13:45
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, it's their their division now. But the
13:49
Speaker 2: Ravens I was just already out on like I had
13:50
Speaker 2: zero futures on them for the super Bowl, just because
13:53
Speaker 2: we talk I thought last year was the peak, it
13:55
Speaker 2: was the perfect year. This year there's gonna be too
13:57
Speaker 2: many holes when you're paying Lamar while you're paying them,
14:00
Speaker 2: like we're like we even talked to the Chiefs. Yet
14:02
Speaker 2: you're seeing that with the Chiefs, right, they can't afford
14:04
Speaker 2: any offensive lineman because they're giving so much money to
14:06
Speaker 2: Mahomes and a couple other guys. So it's the same
14:08
Speaker 2: with the Ravens. It's like, yeah, big deal that they
14:11
Speaker 2: got Derek.
14:12
Speaker 1: Uh.
14:12
Speaker 2: You know, Henry, he's been a game changer for them,
14:14
Speaker 2: but they allocated money there and they've gone cheap in
14:17
Speaker 2: other places, and you've kind of seen it this year.
14:19
Speaker 2: It's just it's all on the mark. When he's not
14:22
Speaker 2: on this one hundred percent a game, they're they're they're
14:25
Speaker 2: a team you can beat, and you're you're right, Like
14:28
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, if he was a little better in this game,
14:30
Speaker 2: the pittsfordh Steers probably would have rolled them like they
14:32
Speaker 2: were moving the ball up and down the field, and
14:33
Speaker 2: they just couldn't finish those drives. I will say, I
14:37
Speaker 2: just remember there's one moment I was freaked out. It
14:39
Speaker 2: was with Justin Fields. He could have got an easy
14:42
Speaker 2: first down. He slid early to get the second and
14:46
Speaker 2: two or second and one. Yeah, get this guy out here.
14:50
Speaker 2: His field awareness is just zero.
14:52
Speaker 1: He slid a yard early.
14:55
Speaker 2: Yeah.
14:55
Speaker 1: So instead of going first down and basically ending the game,
15:00
Speaker 1: it kept the drive. It allowed the Steelers to call
15:03
Speaker 1: time or the Ravens called time out. That was ridiculous.
15:07
Speaker 2: A man, I don't care how the other thirty one
15:10
Speaker 2: to doing it.
15:11
Speaker 1: Rams at New England. We bet the Rams four and
15:14
Speaker 1: a half. We liked them all week, but when we
15:16
Speaker 1: discussed it this morning, this was the game you were
15:19
Speaker 1: most worried about.
15:20
Speaker 2: Tell me why just for what I bet personally? Because
15:23
Speaker 2: I told you I didn't really get the movement like
15:24
Speaker 2: I was. I told you I was up all night
15:27
Speaker 2: and they were down to three and a half and
15:29
Speaker 2: I was betting it, but I was just like, what
15:32
Speaker 2: is happening? Who is hitting this other side so heavy?
15:35
Speaker 2: And I'm not gonna lie. I really did think we
15:37
Speaker 2: were gonna get drake me at the end of that game.
15:39
Speaker 2: It was just like they somehow didn't get that first
15:42
Speaker 2: down the Rams when they could have done whatever they wanted.
15:45
Speaker 2: It seems like every player they wanted to make is
15:47
Speaker 2: easy with Cooper, Cup or Puka, but Stafford's like, now
15:49
Speaker 2: let me throw it to my third tight end or
15:51
Speaker 2: some random other guy on the outside. It's like, just
15:54
Speaker 2: go to your best guys in these tight moments, Stafford,
15:57
Speaker 2: come on, I don't care if they're covered. But yeah,
16:00
Speaker 2: they punted up six. I thought, oh my god, I
16:04
Speaker 2: can't believe this is gonna happen just because I mean,
16:06
Speaker 2: they dominated that game, the Rams. They were clearly the
16:08
Speaker 2: better side. But Drake May's got some moxie. That team.
16:12
Speaker 2: They don't quit. They let him hang around. I think
16:14
Speaker 2: at one point they were up I don't know if
16:16
Speaker 2: we were up fourteen or maybe it was fifteen, a
16:18
Speaker 2: random number. And you know, he comes down and gets
16:21
Speaker 2: that touchdown and now we're only up six, and it's like, okay,
16:24
Speaker 2: I thought the number should be six. Hopefully my model
16:27
Speaker 2: is right and the Land's right on six, because that's
16:28
Speaker 2: the whole reason we took this number, is like it's
16:31
Speaker 2: under six. We think we're getting a good number here,
16:32
Speaker 2: and the public was overacting that Patriots team, and they did.
16:36
Speaker 2: That's what ended up being the number moved too much.
16:38
Speaker 2: We got a good number. LANDA ray Ward should have
16:41
Speaker 2: been Yeah, that's that was a nice cover. That was
16:43
Speaker 2: a nice game. We talked about predicted hung in there,
16:46
Speaker 2: kept it in there, and it was a good cover.
16:48
Speaker 1: That was a game where it just felt like the
16:50
Speaker 1: Rams were playing with their food. Yeah, you know like
16:53
Speaker 1: that they were. They were so much better than the Patriots,
16:58
Speaker 1: and in the first quarter, like the Patriots were making plays,
17:02
Speaker 1: they were getting momentum, they were building confidence, and then
17:06
Speaker 1: from the second quarter through the third quarter, the Rams
17:11
Speaker 1: basically went on a twenty eight to three run and
17:15
Speaker 1: they were up twenty eight to ten. The Patriots score
17:20
Speaker 1: a touchdown at the end of the third twenty eight
17:23
Speaker 1: seventeen sixteen or something like that. Then they get that
17:27
Speaker 1: last touchdown. I was definitely thinking we're fucked because they
17:33
Speaker 1: went back to sort of playing with their food in
17:35
Speaker 1: the same way we hit the Saints last week at
17:37
Speaker 1: the exact right spot. I feel like we got the
17:39
Speaker 1: Rams this week in the exact right spot. So the
17:43
Speaker 1: challenge will be looking ahead. They've got the Eagles. It's
17:47
Speaker 1: a primetime game, their dogs at home against the Eagles.
17:52
Speaker 1: I'm going to be excited to talk about that game
17:54
Speaker 1: with you when we get to the week twelve lines.
17:58
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Detroit. This was our Big Balls bet of the week,
18:01
Speaker 1: first time we've ever done a double digit favorite for
18:04
Speaker 1: Big Balls Bet of the Week. We had Detroit minus
18:07
Speaker 1: twelve and a half. As they say in Hollywood, no else.
18:12
Speaker 2: Hello Detroit.
18:20
Speaker 1: No.
18:20
Speaker 2: That was the dream. That was a game we loved.
18:23
Speaker 2: We both bet a bunch on and even if you're
18:26
Speaker 2: betting a bad number, Like I even bet a couple
18:28
Speaker 2: thirteen and a halfs and it's like, I should just
18:31
Speaker 2: wait and maybe it goes back to thirteen. But I
18:33
Speaker 2: was just I just felt like it was only going
18:34
Speaker 2: to go up to fourteen by kickoff, but professionals held
18:38
Speaker 2: that line, like that number really did budge back down
18:42
Speaker 2: from fourteen to thirteen and a half. And you know,
18:45
Speaker 2: we obviously had a good number in the contest. I
18:47
Speaker 2: think we've bad twelve and a half, But wouldn't it mattered,
18:51
Speaker 2: Like we even joked about, like these ermers really haven't
18:53
Speaker 2: mattered for us so much in the contest. I mean,
18:55
Speaker 2: two and a half's havelf, but other numbers, for the
18:56
Speaker 2: most part, it's not really been landing on those numbers
18:59
Speaker 2: as much. So that was the game where we were
19:02
Speaker 2: final leaving it in even at a bad number. Honestly,
19:04
Speaker 2: even at fourteen and a half, it'd have been like,
19:06
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'll keep it in just because I
19:08
Speaker 2: rather have that in than the Colts and end up
19:10
Speaker 2: being the Colts being a great bet. So yeah, that
19:13
Speaker 2: was a great bet. What was it twenty eight to
19:17
Speaker 2: three to start the game. That's what you need when
19:19
Speaker 2: you bet these huge favorites, It's like you just need
19:22
Speaker 2: a roll to completely take the other team's will. And
19:25
Speaker 2: that's what happened. I mean, the Jaguars quit instantly like
19:28
Speaker 2: I think they had. They started the game with three
19:30
Speaker 2: straight rushing touchdowns, and you know, it just looked like
19:33
Speaker 2: the Jaguars were playing in mud. And this Detroit team
19:36
Speaker 2: is just not like they're just incredibly talented. I saw
19:40
Speaker 2: a lot of books move them to be the odds
19:42
Speaker 2: on favorite right now for the Super Bowl. Makes sense,
19:45
Speaker 2: like if they get home field and they're running like this,
19:48
Speaker 2: you don't need Aiden Hutchinson if you're putting up you know,
19:51
Speaker 2: thirty five forty points on any giving team, any given night.
19:54
Speaker 2: So yeah, we know the deal. When this Detroit team
19:56
Speaker 2: plays bad team Chad, we can't overreact and get word,
20:00
Speaker 2: I've been these big numbers we just got taken. I
20:01
Speaker 2: think now Evan could correct me if I'm wrong. I
20:04
Speaker 2: believe double did your favorites now five and zero against
20:06
Speaker 2: the spread this season.
20:07
Speaker 1: So I looked at this game and to me, it
20:12
Speaker 1: was the get Jared Goff the MVP game. Like Dan
20:16
Speaker 1: Campbell saw what happened last week with it, you know,
20:20
Speaker 1: when they when they came back and with the five
20:24
Speaker 1: picks this week, four hundred and twelve yards. I think
20:28
Speaker 1: he was twenty four of twenty nine four touchdowns. They
20:35
Speaker 1: kept the pedal to the medal the entire time. It's
20:38
Speaker 1: almost like somebody was in Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell's
20:42
Speaker 1: ear telling them, Okay Lamar is now completing fewer than
20:46
Speaker 1: fifty percent of his passes. Of course, this was all
20:48
Speaker 1: before the Bills played the Chiefs, which we'll get to
20:53
Speaker 1: because that was our final game of the day. So
20:55
Speaker 1: we went into the last game three and one on
20:59
Speaker 1: the day, Patrick Mahomes as a dog and dude, twelve
21:05
Speaker 1: minutes left, they're down twenty three fourteen. I say to myself,
21:11
Speaker 1: the Bills are dominating this game, like time the possession
21:16
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Really they had two good drives, but the
21:20
Speaker 1: Bills were playing better than the Chiefs were. And I
21:25
Speaker 1: thought to myself, this is why we bet on Patrick Mahomes,
21:30
Speaker 1: because in this moment, that's who you want to have
21:34
Speaker 1: the ball. And I believe that right until the last
21:39
Speaker 1: play of the game. Didn't work out for us, but
21:41
Speaker 1: I never regretted betting on Patrick Mahomes.
21:46
Speaker 2: The Bills.
21:47
Speaker 1: Make me want something, throw your hands something, throw your
21:52
Speaker 1: hand back to come.
21:54
Speaker 2: Now the Bills. I'm making it happen now. Yeah, it
21:57
Speaker 2: was a great run. It hurts, but you know I
22:00
Speaker 2: make that bet every time, and we saw how it
22:02
Speaker 2: could have worked out for us. It's pretty simple. It
22:04
Speaker 2: was fourth and two. Josh Allen's up two. If he
22:08
Speaker 2: gets stuff there, who knows, right, the Mahomes either drives
22:11
Speaker 2: the field scores or he gets stuffed and that game's over.
22:13
Speaker 2: We cover the two and a half. I hit my
22:15
Speaker 2: under bet. It would have been really nice. Josh Allen
22:18
Speaker 2: had a big moment right MVP moment he stepped up
22:21
Speaker 2: the Chiefs for some reason didn't run a QB spine on,
22:23
Speaker 2: which was just to me bizarre because it's like Matt
22:26
Speaker 2: Mitchell said it. It just felt like it was a momentere
22:27
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's like, this is going to be in my hands,
22:30
Speaker 2: Like I'm not gonna let someone take this moment from me.
22:33
Speaker 2: I think he is now four and one. Maybe I
22:35
Speaker 2: could be wrong. Four and one straight up against Mahomes
22:38
Speaker 2: in the regular season, which is pretty insane. Yeah, but yeah,
22:42
Speaker 2: pretty big time play by Josh Allen and Yeah, that
22:47
Speaker 2: was a really fun playoff game that came down to
22:49
Speaker 2: two or three plays that didn't go our way. And yeah,
22:53
Speaker 2: the worst part of it's the teasers didn't cover either
22:56
Speaker 2: for Mahomes, which head into that spot. I think Evan
22:59
Speaker 2: said he was fourteen to zero as an underdog on teasers.
23:04
Speaker 2: Pretty brutal. That didn't cover. So yeah, I was hoping
23:06
Speaker 2: we'd get the back door Chad get a big scramble
23:09
Speaker 2: I think for thirty yards. They caught it back on
23:11
Speaker 2: a hold, made it fourth and thirteen again, and it's like, Okay,
23:14
Speaker 2: we're dead. We're not getting this back doors. So yeah,
23:17
Speaker 2: tough loss, but yeah, just another day betting these trends.
23:20
Speaker 2: It's tough when they don't work out for you.
23:23
Speaker 1: MVP adds just before the afternoon games, after the Jared Goff.
23:29
Speaker 1: After Jared Goff threw for four hundred yards, he had
23:31
Speaker 1: been twenty to one during the week. He had dropped
23:35
Speaker 1: because of the five pick game before the Chiefs and
23:39
Speaker 1: Bill's played. It was Lamar plus one thirty, it was
23:45
Speaker 1: Josh Allen plus two fifty and Jared Goff plus six hundred,
23:50
Speaker 1: so he jumped quite a bit. In the MVP tallies.
23:54
Speaker 1: We're waiting on updated MVP adds. Post this Josh Allen game,
23:59
Speaker 1: I amadine, and he'll now be the odds on favorite
24:03
Speaker 1: to win the MVP, given that he just beat Patrick
24:06
Speaker 1: Mahomes did it in spectacular fashion. Alert here for.
24:11
Speaker 2: Josh Allen looking for hell.
24:16
Speaker 1: He's alon.
24:17
Speaker 2: No, he's a flier.
24:19
Speaker 3: He's a football player through and through him here, but
24:22
Speaker 3: there's nothing there.
24:22
Speaker 1: He goes, shan't try an excuse me touchdown?
24:28
Speaker 2: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
24:31
Speaker 2: there's no fears, no way. He was being.
24:39
Speaker 1: Pizza.
24:46
Speaker 2: He's still going, Oh my god. The demands to do
24:50
Speaker 2: something about this album reachous man making louder and louder.
24:58
Speaker 1: He was Mahomesyan. He made the play that he had
25:00
Speaker 1: to make. He hit the guys that he had to hit,
25:02
Speaker 1: converted hard third downs, scored the game winning touchdown, you know,
25:06
Speaker 1: converted the fourth down. Kudos Josh Allen, Kudos Buffalo Bills.
25:12
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell maybe buying ice cream for his entire neighborhood
25:16
Speaker 1: tonight because he's so excited. At the very least he
25:19
Speaker 1: gets to eat wings with gloves because all of his
25:22
Speaker 1: fears are over now.
25:24
Speaker 3: No chad buying ice cream for everyone in my neighborhood
25:28
Speaker 3: is reserved for big playoff victories, regular season wins like this.
25:33
Speaker 3: I celebrate the old fashioned way as a Bills fan,
25:37
Speaker 3: which is breaking all the side mirrors off the cars
25:40
Speaker 3: in my neighborhood.
25:41
Speaker 2: Go Bills.
25:42
Speaker 1: All right, here's the regrets. I don't think we seriously
25:46
Speaker 1: discussed the Colts enough. We had the Colts in the
25:51
Speaker 1: underdog round robin along with Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tennessee.
25:55
Speaker 1: None of them won, but the Colts and the Steelers did.
25:57
Speaker 1: We never had a combo about them, and I felt
25:59
Speaker 1: like we actually liked them more after Anthony Richardson was
26:03
Speaker 1: named the starter. Why didn't? Why do we miss that one?
26:06
Speaker 2: I mean I loved him, It just it wasn't on
26:08
Speaker 2: your radar. I only have so many winners in me
26:10
Speaker 2: that should have been you that instead of Cleveland, you
26:12
Speaker 2: should have the Colts. I got nothing to do.
26:14
Speaker 1: I love the Colts all week.
26:17
Speaker 2: I was never really on them. I bet them because
26:19
Speaker 2: I liked the number, but it was like I was
26:20
Speaker 2: never in love with it. You liked them more than me.
26:22
Speaker 2: So I wish I could stay and be like I
26:24
Speaker 2: knew the Colts was gonna be a great but I
26:26
Speaker 2: honestly it wasn't on my radar. I just I didn't
26:28
Speaker 2: know what Anthony Richards was going to react. He obtually
26:31
Speaker 2: came out had an incredible game. I think at one
26:33
Speaker 2: point he was like seven and nine passing like totally.
26:36
Speaker 1: Yeah. He ended a game like twenty thirty for two
26:38
Speaker 1: seventy five or something like that. Yeah, and he converted
26:43
Speaker 1: some fantastic third downs like that was a really grown
26:48
Speaker 1: up football game for him.
26:50
Speaker 2: Yeah. So again it was it was a good bet.
26:52
Speaker 2: I wish we had made it, but yeah, I was
26:54
Speaker 2: never it was never one of my bigger bets this week.
26:56
Speaker 2: I never would have been in one of Like I
26:57
Speaker 2: was never going to force in. So yeah, it sucks
26:59
Speaker 2: where you definitely liked it, but it was never one
27:01
Speaker 2: year like, oh, we have to get this one and
27:03
Speaker 2: we never really talked about it. Now.
27:05
Speaker 1: Broncos was the other one. I felt like we had
27:07
Speaker 1: done a full one to eighty on that one, and
27:10
Speaker 1: we were all over Atlanta early in the week and
27:12
Speaker 1: by the end of the week we really liked Denver.
27:14
Speaker 2: Yeah. Chris Raybun helps though with that. Yeah, although like
27:17
Speaker 2: when he starts bringing down all those stats, We're like, shit,
27:20
Speaker 2: you're right. Like this Atlanta team, their offense still struggle
27:24
Speaker 2: against good defense and Denver we've both talked about Denver
27:26
Speaker 2: is a good defense. But bow Knicks man like that,
27:30
Speaker 2: that was really a bon Knicks game. We talked about
27:32
Speaker 2: it like I bet him Rookie of the Year just
27:34
Speaker 2: because it's like, yeah, it feels like a two man
27:37
Speaker 2: race between him and Jane Daniels. That might have been
27:39
Speaker 2: his best game of the season. I mean, he played
27:41
Speaker 2: incredible in that matchup. So yeah, the bow Knick stock
27:45
Speaker 2: keeps going up every week.
27:46
Speaker 1: It really does. And look, Jade Daniels is struggling.
27:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Jane Daniels is injured. That's why.
27:51
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean he struggled against the Eagles obviously, and
27:53
Speaker 1: they got to him quite a bit. On Thursday night.
27:55
Speaker 1: I was at that game. Let me just say this.
27:58
Speaker 1: I know it's sacriligious to say these things, but after
28:01
Speaker 1: a week of going to Knicks, Bulls at MSG, Bulls
28:06
Speaker 1: win with three free throws with three seconds left, and
28:12
Speaker 1: then Jalen Brunson has a shot go in and out.
28:15
Speaker 1: Then I go the next night with my kid to
28:18
Speaker 1: Eagles commanders at the link and Saquon goes off in
28:23
Speaker 1: the second half. It's great. Eagles dominate. First half was
28:27
Speaker 1: so freaking boring, and these games take so long, and
28:30
Speaker 1: it's like every five seconds there's a minute to two
28:33
Speaker 1: minute break. And then we went. We visited the University
28:37
Speaker 1: of Maryland, which was amazing, great campus, really impressive school.
28:42
Speaker 1: Went to the Maryland Marquette game and that game came
28:45
Speaker 1: down to the final seconds. Maryland was down two with
28:48
Speaker 1: fifteen seconds left left. A kid was on the line
28:50
Speaker 1: to shoot two for Maryland missed them. Both game ends.
28:54
Speaker 1: But like the in stadium, in game live experience for
28:58
Speaker 1: basketball is just so much better in the NFL. It
29:01
Speaker 1: just is.
29:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, it all depends. I mean, you have a different
29:05
Speaker 2: way watching football. It all depends the type of year
29:07
Speaker 2: you are. I think you just like action, you like points,
29:10
Speaker 2: which is nothing wrong with. Go watch NBA or go
29:12
Speaker 2: watch NHL. That's for you. For someone like me, I
29:16
Speaker 2: like that game. I know people didn't love if I loved.
29:18
Speaker 2: That was an NFC East Classic. It was ugly. Every
29:21
Speaker 2: catch mattered. I mean, guys were dropping the ball all
29:24
Speaker 2: over the field because it's just so intense everyone's so tight.
29:27
Speaker 2: I love that because you can feel it in the stadium.
29:29
Speaker 2: So I get what you're saying. It's just a different
29:31
Speaker 2: type of thing where it's like, yeah, do we both
29:33
Speaker 2: want to see a fifty to forty five game? Sure,
29:36
Speaker 2: I would have loved that and if the NFL game
29:38
Speaker 2: was going crazy, but instead we got a what twenty
29:41
Speaker 2: to twelve type of game? And that's just that's just
29:43
Speaker 2: how it is sometimes.
29:44
Speaker 1: First of all, don't fucking insult me with I want points.
29:48
Speaker 1: I grew up in Chicago.
29:50
Speaker 2: You sound like a TikToker, dude. You sound like a
29:51
Speaker 2: little little gen zer right now.
29:53
Speaker 1: Going to Bears games when it's four below and rooting
29:56
Speaker 1: for the game to be three nothing Bears, because all
29:59
Speaker 1: I want to do is sorry, you're soft.
30:01
Speaker 2: Now, that was a lot.
30:03
Speaker 1: I'm definitely soft. I definitely thought after the game, I
30:08
Speaker 1: don't really need to go to a game if it's
30:09
Speaker 1: less than forty degrees. Number one, number two, it's it's
30:13
Speaker 1: not the intensity, it's the interruptions and the commercial breaks
30:18
Speaker 1: and the amount of time that is spent just sitting
30:21
Speaker 1: there waiting for the next thing to happen. It could
30:24
Speaker 1: be attention deficit. It could totally be about intention span,
30:27
Speaker 1: but I'm just saying, as a product, the experience for
30:31
Speaker 1: basketball was much better in game than the experience for football.
30:33
Speaker 1: So I'm saying, thank god, we don't have to put
30:36
Speaker 1: the Steelers in the Browns in the contest this week.
30:39
Speaker 1: Looking ahead to Week twelve, the lines that we are
30:43
Speaker 1: looking at Rounds are four point dogs at home. I
30:47
Speaker 1: hate that I feel this way, you know, but I'm
30:52
Speaker 1: glad we're not gonna have to put it in the contest.
30:53
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have an early lean on
30:55
Speaker 1: that game.
30:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're supposed to about the Browns. You're right. I
30:56
Speaker 2: don't want to do anything with that game. I want
30:59
Speaker 2: to early lean Pittsburgh.
31:00
Speaker 1: Yep, there is a game. However, a team had to
31:05
Speaker 1: buy this week. A team looked pretty good two weeks ago.
31:11
Speaker 1: Last week, Carolina Panthers were eleven and a half point
31:15
Speaker 1: underdogs against Kansa Cy Chiefs.
31:20
Speaker 2: Are you doing it?
31:22
Speaker 1: I'm not saying we're doing it like I think it
31:25
Speaker 1: merits attention. I'm not going to bet it right now,
31:28
Speaker 1: but I do think it merits some attention to think about, especially,
31:34
Speaker 1: you know. Now.
31:37
Speaker 2: I agree that we're supposed to bet that we always
31:39
Speaker 2: say we like to fade mahomes. But yeah, I wonder
31:44
Speaker 2: if the our listeners will let us bet it. But
31:46
Speaker 2: that's definitely a game that jumped out to me that
31:48
Speaker 2: I want to bet. We just talked about it. Favorites
31:51
Speaker 2: right now, double digits or five? And oh, I know
31:54
Speaker 2: you you always talk about teams things being overdue. Isn't
31:57
Speaker 2: a big dog overdue to win this year or cover
31:59
Speaker 2: at least a big double digit spread? So yeah, that
32:02
Speaker 2: numbers two big. I'll take it early here with you.
32:04
Speaker 2: But I don't know if listeners will let us put
32:07
Speaker 2: that one in. But I'm with you. I definitely love that.
32:09
Speaker 1: I can't see that one making it into the contest.
32:12
Speaker 1: There are loads of home dogs this week. I'm gonna
32:16
Speaker 1: read a list of the home dogs. There are seven.
32:19
Speaker 1: I want you to tell me which ones you pinpointed it,
32:22
Speaker 1: because I got a couple I want to see if
32:24
Speaker 1: we match. The Bears are five point dogs at home
32:27
Speaker 1: against Minnesota. These are all home dogs that I'm reading
32:29
Speaker 1: off Indy seven points against Detroit Giants, three against Tampa Vegas,
32:36
Speaker 1: three against Denver Green Bay, one against San Francisco Rams,
32:42
Speaker 1: two and a half at versus Philly Chargers plus three
32:46
Speaker 1: versus Baltimore.
32:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean jumped that right away. I wanted to
32:52
Speaker 2: grab the Lions at minus seven. That's already up to
32:54
Speaker 2: minus eight. Unfortunately. I just I felt like a little
33:00
Speaker 2: too low to me for that cold steam, but not
33:02
Speaker 2: that it's up to eight. It's like, I don't need
33:04
Speaker 2: to rush and take that one. If you're still able
33:07
Speaker 2: to get seven to seven and a half, I throw
33:09
Speaker 2: a little bit on that, just because it seems like
33:11
Speaker 2: it's gonna keep going up on this cold steam. Patriots?
33:14
Speaker 2: Are we a suckers? Are we a sucker for trying
33:16
Speaker 2: to take the patris a plus seven and a half?
33:18
Speaker 2: That feels like it's a lot of points for that matchup.
33:21
Speaker 1: I forgot who they're playing.
33:22
Speaker 2: Hold on, they're playing Miami.
33:24
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I was really focused on home dogs.
33:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know they're on the road. I'm just taking
33:30
Speaker 2: that one right now. They're just another big, big dog
33:34
Speaker 2: that popped out to me. That just feels like that
33:37
Speaker 2: number will come down just because you know, I know Miami.
33:40
Speaker 2: They won what thirty one nineteen today, But.
33:44
Speaker 1: That was a a scoreboard win, not a box score win.
33:49
Speaker 1: Like that game was much closer I agree about the
33:52
Speaker 1: game than it should have been.
33:54
Speaker 2: And I think we both agree this. This Raiders team
33:56
Speaker 2: is totally terrible, so terrible. What do we do with
33:59
Speaker 2: that line? You see their line against Denver, it's minus four.
34:03
Speaker 1: I mean you have to take the Raiders like right,
34:07
Speaker 1: just and that to me was.
34:07
Speaker 2: One of the fish That line's really fishy. Giants are
34:11
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at home against Tampa.
34:13
Speaker 1: So that's interesting, Like some of these lines have moved.
34:15
Speaker 1: You know, obviously these were the lines before we get
34:17
Speaker 1: on the shodow and it's been thirty minutes that we
34:19
Speaker 1: since we started recording. So now you're saying Raiders are
34:23
Speaker 1: up to four. They opened at three, Giants are up
34:27
Speaker 1: to three and a half. They opened at three. Like,
34:31
Speaker 1: I'm gonna want to be on the Giants. I'm gonna
34:33
Speaker 1: want to be on the Raiders.
34:35
Speaker 2: I know. It's just again we need to like pull
34:38
Speaker 2: it back because the like this, Like today, we took
34:40
Speaker 2: a lot of lines I normally wouldn't honestly take, like
34:43
Speaker 2: we we joked about the Chiefs were a really public dog,
34:46
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh was a really public dog. And Detroit I
34:50
Speaker 2: think it was like ninety five percent of the bets
34:52
Speaker 2: and the tickets in the action app were on Detroit.
34:55
Speaker 2: But we're just leaning into this year like this year
34:58
Speaker 2: thates not matter. The public's just been winning. So normally
35:01
Speaker 2: I'd honestly be with you and just hammering these giants
35:04
Speaker 2: and radio lines. But the public has been so good
35:06
Speaker 2: it's like, I'm not Russian. I am not rushing to
35:09
Speaker 2: bet these ways unless you're been in the favorites. Then
35:11
Speaker 2: we just talked about you should rush because Denver just
35:13
Speaker 2: went Chatty said, went from three up to four. So
35:16
Speaker 2: that's early professional money coming in on them, a team
35:19
Speaker 2: I wanted to feade no matter what because of what
35:21
Speaker 2: happened today where the Seahawks. The Seahawks pulled up a
35:24
Speaker 2: last second win. We can get Arizona right now plus
35:26
Speaker 2: one plus two as a yes, yes, I'm so that's
35:30
Speaker 2: an I'm scrabbing now in case it's the same thing
35:33
Speaker 2: as like Cleveland. Don't know if we'll bet it as
35:34
Speaker 2: a week goes along, because it might flip. But I
35:37
Speaker 2: could easily see this number flipping as we sit here
35:41
Speaker 2: Sunday night, where you out with the Bears because they're
35:44
Speaker 2: three and a half against this Vikings team.
35:46
Speaker 1: Well it's come down. It opened at five. Wow, So
35:51
Speaker 1: that tells me that professionals are coming in on the Bears.
35:54
Speaker 1: And I, like, I got a lot of questions about
35:57
Speaker 1: this Minnesota team. I just don't think Sam Darnold is
36:01
Speaker 1: very good as a quarterback unless he's throwing to the
36:04
Speaker 1: middle of the field. And they let Tennessee stay in
36:09
Speaker 1: this game. So will Brian Flores be able to do
36:14
Speaker 1: to Caleb Williams what he does to every rookie quarterback?
36:18
Speaker 1: It's possible. Will the Bears have a come down moment
36:21
Speaker 1: because they had their best game in the week where
36:25
Speaker 1: they could run some new schemes with a new offensive coordinator,
36:29
Speaker 1: and now there's a little bit more film on that.
36:31
Speaker 1: Will they be emboldened like the Broncos were to come
36:34
Speaker 1: out and just dominate after a really tough loss which
36:38
Speaker 1: they should have won. Like, I don't know about that yet.
36:42
Speaker 1: So for me, if it's already moved to three and
36:46
Speaker 1: a half, we'll just fucking wait and see.
36:50
Speaker 2: Those are the professionals who were like literally talking during
36:53
Speaker 2: that Bears again they were gonna bet the Bears no
36:55
Speaker 2: matter what this opening week because they just think that
36:58
Speaker 2: Kleb looks way freer. I guess then he's had looked
37:01
Speaker 2: in weeks and I would totally agree, do you Because
37:04
Speaker 2: again I didn't watch enough of that game. My idea
37:07
Speaker 2: was it just seemed like by free, do you mean
37:10
Speaker 2: he's just scrambling more and running with the.
37:11
Speaker 1: Bowls ran a lot more, But also he was It
37:15
Speaker 1: felt like they were they were throwing more vertical passes
37:20
Speaker 1: like downfield, like the routes he was running were the
37:25
Speaker 1: receivers were running were just more vertical. They weren't throwing
37:29
Speaker 1: as many crossing routes, and the players made better plays.
37:32
Speaker 1: There were also a lot more screens, Like it was
37:35
Speaker 1: out of his hands in about two seconds flat versus
37:39
Speaker 1: being closer to three seconds. So who knows, maybe the
37:42
Speaker 1: protection was a little bit better, but clearly they did
37:44
Speaker 1: something that gave him the confidence, that gave him the
37:46
Speaker 1: confidence to play as aggressively as he did all game.
37:50
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it had to do with
37:51
Speaker 1: getting the ball out of his hands fast.
37:54
Speaker 2: All right, I'll throw a couple of thousand on them,
37:55
Speaker 2: because I could see professionals betting this down the three
37:58
Speaker 2: So because I was with for the one o'clock games
38:01
Speaker 2: and they were just a bunch of them were just like,
38:03
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a bit, This will be a
38:05
Speaker 2: good change for this Bears team. Like they seem like
38:07
Speaker 2: they had a rhythm to them. And I honestly wasn't
38:09
Speaker 2: watching the game enough to have an opinion on it,
38:11
Speaker 2: but I trust their opinion. You're saying, you're kind of
38:13
Speaker 2: seeing the same stuff. It's like, Okay, I already was
38:16
Speaker 2: looking for a reason to fade this Viking team because
38:18
Speaker 2: I'm with you. It's like their defense has just been
38:21
Speaker 2: carrying them this season. Their defense is so good with
38:23
Speaker 2: their offense. Sam Darnold's just been so inconsistently these last
38:27
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. And you know, now he's got another
38:30
Speaker 2: game on the road outdoors against a divisional opponent. You
38:33
Speaker 2: expect this to be a tough matchup for him. So yeah,
38:37
Speaker 2: that makes sense. Sucks. It feels like we missed the
38:40
Speaker 2: best of it, right, But yeah, I still think three
38:43
Speaker 2: and a half might be the best of it because
38:44
Speaker 2: I could see this keep going down if professionals or
38:46
Speaker 2: keep hitting this number.
38:47
Speaker 1: Where are you at on rams plus two and a
38:51
Speaker 1: half versus the Eagles? Versus the Eagles?
38:55
Speaker 2: My view would is be patient if you like the Rams,
38:58
Speaker 2: which I kind of do. But I took the Eagles
39:01
Speaker 2: here right away at two and a half because there's
39:03
Speaker 2: a couple of books at it to two and a half.
39:04
Speaker 2: I just took that early just because I assume this
39:08
Speaker 2: will go up to three three and a half by kickoff.
39:11
Speaker 2: This is the Sunday night game, so uh, this this
39:15
Speaker 2: makes sense right the I would say this is a
39:21
Speaker 2: great test for this Eagle scheme because we've all heard
39:23
Speaker 2: the hype right now with these rookie cornerbacks and everyone's
39:27
Speaker 2: talking about how the difference they're making, and this will
39:30
Speaker 2: be the ultimate test Cooper Cup Puoka, you know, to
39:34
Speaker 2: the best in the game going against young corners. You
39:36
Speaker 2: just think that'd be advantage to this Rams team. And
39:39
Speaker 2: we know that this Eagles team is different on the road.
39:41
Speaker 2: You know, Jalen Hurts is just better simply at home.
39:43
Speaker 2: But it's a big deal. They're on extended rest and
39:47
Speaker 2: this is a Sunday night game, so it's like coming
39:49
Speaker 2: off of mini bye week against the Rams team that's
39:52
Speaker 2: coming off the road. You know, this is not it's
39:55
Speaker 2: not sure rest, but it kind of is right because
39:56
Speaker 2: they're not getting hume till tonight. Yeah, that's that's definitely
39:59
Speaker 2: a big deal. So I would say, if you want
40:01
Speaker 2: to grab the early number and you like the Rams,
40:03
Speaker 2: I would just wait. If you like the Eagles, I'd
40:05
Speaker 2: grab it now because I could easily see this just
40:07
Speaker 2: going up to three three and a half by Sunday night.
40:11
Speaker 1: Boy to Eagles fans, love Cooper dejan Man.
40:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, did you see his a T shirt? He award
40:19
Speaker 2: you're a big wine guy. I forget now. So you know,
40:22
Speaker 2: like if you go shopping for wines, they'll be like
40:24
Speaker 2: the labels to say, exciting whites. Okay, So him in
40:28
Speaker 2: this human blanker ship wore these shirts. This had exciting
40:31
Speaker 2: whites on it, and they've got it from this guy
40:35
Speaker 2: at the Different Mall, which if you know the local area,
40:37
Speaker 2: it's like, you know, different malls are like I love
40:40
Speaker 2: Different Mall. It's our trashing mall. Like just the good
40:42
Speaker 2: people of South Jersey send him and this other guy
40:45
Speaker 2: this exciting white shirt. So just it's just hilarious. So
40:48
Speaker 2: just we have a white safety and white cornerback who
40:50
Speaker 2: are sick. It's it's so random, so funny.
40:54
Speaker 1: All right, what else am I missing? You mentioned Arizona?
40:57
Speaker 1: There is a one and a half out there by
41:00
Speaker 1: the way.
41:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I saw too. So the twos are going
41:03
Speaker 2: down to one and a half.
41:05
Speaker 1: It's worth checking out. What else? What did I miss?
41:08
Speaker 2: Just we just talked about this forty nine ers team
41:10
Speaker 2: obviously is not the same team. Isn't this the time
41:14
Speaker 2: to buy plus one and a half in Green Bay?
41:16
Speaker 2: I mean you just watched that Green Bay. Something's wrong
41:19
Speaker 2: with Jordan Love? Like, can we all agree he's just
41:23
Speaker 2: not what he was last year? Like I know if
41:26
Speaker 2: it's all the injuries, but he's reckless with the ball.
41:29
Speaker 2: Did he have another interception in this game?
41:30
Speaker 1: He did a costly one at the goal line.
41:34
Speaker 2: Yes, Like he just he keeps making these mistakes and
41:38
Speaker 2: I don't want to fault him to her because it's
41:39
Speaker 2: his second year as a starter in this league. It's like,
41:42
Speaker 2: this is what we expect. Like that last year we
41:44
Speaker 2: talked about that was lighting in a bottle. You know,
41:47
Speaker 2: if they would have lost that game, I might have
41:50
Speaker 2: been more convinced to take them here. How do we
41:53
Speaker 2: not take this Fortnite team? They have to be one
41:55
Speaker 2: of the more desperate teams in all football, and now
41:58
Speaker 2: they're a dog in this spot. This could be a
42:00
Speaker 2: little bit like the Chiefs last week, where I got
42:02
Speaker 2: a little bit. Maybe I'm getting a little bit blind
42:04
Speaker 2: to it just because I love the number here. But
42:07
Speaker 2: I make this a pick. We're getting plus one and
42:09
Speaker 2: a half plus two right now in the forty nine ers.
42:11
Speaker 2: This is just an early bet I'm going to make
42:13
Speaker 2: right now. It's forty nine ers two. I just love
42:14
Speaker 2: that number, all right.
42:16
Speaker 1: So we're looking at the Cardinals as dogs. We're looking
42:21
Speaker 1: at the Niners as dogs. If you like the Rams, wait,
42:29
Speaker 1: if you like the Bears, you might want to take
42:31
Speaker 1: the three and a half. We'll probably end up on
42:35
Speaker 1: the Giants and the Raiders, but we're keeping our powder
42:38
Speaker 1: dry the last game. I think tonight has something to
42:41
Speaker 1: do with it. The charters in the Ravens. Any initial opinion.
42:46
Speaker 2: Here, No, I'm in no Russia about that one. Yeah,
42:52
Speaker 2: they're like to me, if it goes under three, I'm
42:55
Speaker 2: gonna take Lamar because we talked about I cap Lamar
42:58
Speaker 2: different against Pittsburgh. Do any other team that's just for
43:02
Speaker 2: some reason, that's just kryptonite of all the teams he plays.
43:06
Speaker 2: We know the deal. If Lamar is under a three,
43:07
Speaker 2: it's an auto play. Don't overthink it. He'll get back,
43:11
Speaker 2: He'll get right that number. That opening number sounds right.
43:14
Speaker 2: If the Chargers win this game tonight, this will come down,
43:17
Speaker 2: so we'll get a better number. One. So I'm gonna
43:19
Speaker 2: know Rush, but I do my early pick I want
43:21
Speaker 2: to be on. Is this Ravens team all right?
43:26
Speaker 1: That covers it? Brother As a reminder, Favorites podcast is
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