Latest / TIPS Podcast / Interview: Sustainable Growth Economist, Seutame Maimele on CBAM
Transcript
- 0:09SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies official podcast, the show where we dive into the fascinating world of economies and its impact on global development.
- 0:21SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, London Matchinana, and today we're discussing the new era of green protectionism and why it's significant in the context of climate change and international trade.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: Today we have a special guest with us who's an expert in this field, Sir Dame May Mane, an economist focusing on sustainable growth and trade and industrial policy strategies.
- 0:49SPEAKER_00: His work centers on global climate change policies, trade, and designing climate-compatible value chains for carbon-intensive industries in South Africa and Africa.
- 1:00SPEAKER_00: Welcome to BAMI.
- 1:02SPEAKER_00: It's a pleasure to have you.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: So let's navigate the carbon border adjustments mechanism.
- 1:17SPEAKER_00: Can you for an introduction just introduce CBAM to the audience?
- 1:23SPEAKER_01: Usually I would like to give a bit of a background in terms of where CBAM came from, right?
- 1:29SPEAKER_01: So it came from what they call the European Green Deal, which the European Union introduced in 2019.
- 1:38SPEAKER_01: So it has a lot of policy instruments.
- 1:41SPEAKER_01: Then amongst those policy instruments is what they call the carbon border adjustment mechanism.
- 1:48SPEAKER_01: So the carbon border adjustment mechanism, along with the other policy measures, they are there to actually ensure that the European Union becomes carbon neutral by the year 2050.
- 2:00SPEAKER_01: So in a nutshell, you know, just to try to simplify what the carbon border adjustment mechanism is, is a policy tool that the EU introduced and now it has actually entered its transition period, what they call the transition period, from the 1st of October 2023.
- 2:18SPEAKER_01: So in its first phase, we you know firms are gonna be required to only report uh what they call the GHG emissions, right, that are embedded in the products that are actually highlighted in the legislation.
- 2:32SPEAKER_01: So CBAM is legislation in terms of accounting for GHG emissions of certain goods that are highlighted under the mechanism.
- 2:40SPEAKER_01: So at the moment there are six sectors that are covered, adding up to 42 product lists across uh iron and steel, fertilizers, cement, as well as you know, iron ore.
- 2:52SPEAKER_01: Right, so iron ore is one of the other products that is also included there, but of course, you can you know if you like, you can just um include that under iron and steel there is aluminium, hydrogen, as well as electricity that, for example, you can export it to the EU.
- 3:07SPEAKER_01: Right, so during this first period, um firms will be required to just only report right GHG emissions that are embedded in those products, right, across those sectors.
- 3:18SPEAKER_01: Then from 2026 at the beginning of 2026, Jen, carbon border tax, which I think is one of the biggest highlights of the mechanism, you know, is gonna come into implementation where entities or firms that are considered to be exporting the some you know our Sibem products, then they will have to start paying carbon border tax, right?
- 3:39SPEAKER_01: So in the South African case, we have a domestic carbon tax, but the tax is not necessarily paid to the export.
- 3:47SPEAKER_01: So with the carbon border adjustment mechanism, actually they are trying to revolutionize the whole thing using GHG emissions, right?
- 3:54SPEAKER_01: And you know, moving the global economy into low carbon economies, and this is one of those mechanisms that um, for example, the EU is introducing.
- 4:04SPEAKER_00: Alright.
- 4:04SPEAKER_00: I mean, it clearly is a great opportunity to address carbon leakage, you know.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: But how would you say EM actually calculates these carbon emissions, especially within these goods that you mentioned, imported into the EU?
- 4:19SPEAKER_01: I mean, for example, if you look at you know the during the transition period, right?
- 4:23SPEAKER_01: So we know that the EU is trying to, in a way, play the pilot, right?
- 4:27SPEAKER_01: So they're in the piloting phase of the mechanism, right?
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: So remember it hasn't been used anywhere else.
- 4:33SPEAKER_01: So EU is the first jurisdiction, if you like, that is the only jurisdictions that ever introduce this mechanism, so it hasn't been done anywhere else before, right?
- 4:43SPEAKER_01: So there are multiple mechanisms that are being put in place, and usually at the beginning of the transition period, so these are you know, for example, you have to report the GHG emissions on a quarterly basis at the moment to calculate GHG emissions.
- 4:58SPEAKER_01: So there is actually uh recommended from the European Commission, so they've published a lot of documents right around trying to make you know industries you know globally aware on how they can account for GHG emissions, and they have multiple methods that they use to calculate GHG emissions.
- 5:17SPEAKER_01: For example, the other one called calculation base, where you just use calculations and a lot of estimates to calculate the GHG emissions in a space, and there's uh you are more advanced and you have a computerized or some sort of like an installation that can account and monitor the GST emissions that are emitted across the production process of let's say for example of steel.
- 5:39SPEAKER_01: Right?
- 5:40SPEAKER_01: So looking at steel, remember the production process starts from the inputs that goes into the production of, for example, crude steel, right?
- 5:47SPEAKER_01: So there's iron ore that goes into the production process, then there's what they call the sinister process where the iron ore is actually being processed into agglomerated iron ore, um as they call it the sinister ore, which can be it's gonna be like an input material into the production of steel, of crude steel.
- 6:07SPEAKER_01: So there will be some several production processes there.
- 6:10SPEAKER_01: So in the production process, there will be some emissions that are emitted across the you know production process, and at the moment, I think there are almost nine emissions that are actually emitted, for example, for the production of steel that are emitted across the production process.
- 6:25SPEAKER_01: So using the calculation-based method, then what you'll do is that you will have to account for the GHG emissions that are actually emitted from every to every input material that you put into the production process, then you have to make estimates based on, for example, past data that you might have, or if you don't have data, then you can just start monitoring and accounting for that data and use that as estimates to calculate the GSG emissions.
- 6:53SPEAKER_01: So I don't want to go into the technicalities of the mechanism.
- 6:56SPEAKER_01: Sure.
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: But um But do you think South Africa is equipped with all of those verifications or certification required to be able to count?
- 7:05SPEAKER_00: At the moment, there is you know South Africa is not prepared for all the rest of Africa.
- 7:09SPEAKER_01: It even gets worse in the African continent, right?
- 7:11SPEAKER_01: So in the African continent, looking at South Africa, which we can say we are in a better position, right?
- 7:17SPEAKER_01: Because we already have a domestic carbon tax, which is tax on emitted emissions from you know overall industries in South Africa.
- 7:25SPEAKER_01: So those industries that emit a lot of emissions, you know, from plastics to chemicals, iron and steel, and aluminum.
- 7:32SPEAKER_01: So already even production of electricity in South Africa, so there is already carbon tax that is already being paid there.
- 7:38SPEAKER_01: And with the carbon border adjustment mechanism, so we already know that there's gonna be a tax that is actually now not only on domestic production but on exports, right, that we're gonna be exporting into the EU.
- 7:51SPEAKER_01: So with that mechanism that South Africa has now, in a way they're gonna get like some sort of rebates because at the moment I think they're paying$10 right for every emissions that are emitted, you know, domestically in the production processes.
- 8:05SPEAKER_01: But moving into the carbon border adjustment mechanism, then that amount will actually be expected to pay around 100 US dollars, right?
- 8:14SPEAKER_01: You know, based on the weekly average prices that uh, for example, the European trading scheme is using, right?
- 8:21SPEAKER_01: So you start to see that South Africa might get some rebates in terms of the country having the carbon borrower, the domestic carbon tax, and in the African continent, you see that South Africa is the only country that has that mechanism, and most of the African countries don't even have that in place, so they will have to actually pay a higher cost as compared to South Africa.
- 8:43SPEAKER_01: But of course, also Africa is going to be you know similar conditions or way.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: I think mentioning the cost implication is one of the issues.
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: An impact on our competitive advantage, especially exporting into the EU.
- 8:58SPEAKER_00: What significant portion of our EU can you give us more information on that?
- 9:04SPEAKER_00: What are the industries that will be affected that export directly into the EU?
- 9:09SPEAKER_01: So, in the African context, Rwanda CBEM is like one policy instrument among many policy instruments, right?
- 9:17SPEAKER_01: That for example the EU is introducing, and other countries as well are also looking into having similar measures, like for example, in like recently Australia has also said that they're gonna introduce their carbon border adjustment mechanism along with Canada, Japan, the UK, as well as US, which they are looking to introduce what they call the ProVID Act.
- 9:39SPEAKER_01: Right?
- 9:40SPEAKER_01: So, within that context, as much as in the short term you can see only SIBAM impacting in South Africa specifically, there's iron, steel, and aluminium that are actually being will be impacted at the African continent with regards to SIBAM.
- 9:54SPEAKER_01: Then you start to see other you know countries coming to be impacted by the mechanism, especially if you look at uh North African countries, looking at Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, you know, to just let me feel there, as well as uh Mozambique, right?
- 10:09SPEAKER_01: So aluminium in Mozambique is has I think most people who follow some developments in the cement space they'll always you know tell you that Mozambique is gonna be one of the highly impacted countries globally in terms of its uh exports of aluminum into the EU.
- 10:24SPEAKER_01: Right, so iron and steel, aluminium.
- 10:27SPEAKER_01: If you look at the southern region of Africa, so specifically looking at Mozambique, having South Africa, then those will be some of the primarily impacted sectors of products.
- 10:37SPEAKER_01: I think Morocco is the only country in the African continent that exports electricity to the EU, right?
- 10:44SPEAKER_01: So they will also be impacted in the space, you know, in terms of electricity, looking at Egypt and Tunisia, fertilizers, right?
- 10:51SPEAKER_01: So you see that uh the proportions in the African continent is actually divided between some North African countries and southern African countries.
- 11:01SPEAKER_01: So that's just Tem, but looking at other measures, for example, looking at broadly at the European Green Deal, you start to see other countries which will also be impacted by the introduction of certain mechanisms that are introduced in the European Green Deal.
- 11:16SPEAKER_01: So there are other mechanisms called the Deforestration Free Supply Chain Act or you know, um, or strategy in the EU that is introduced.
- 11:25SPEAKER_01: So at the moment there hasn't been a lot of developments in the space.
- 11:28SPEAKER_01: So they're looking at some of the other products that, for example, promote deforestation globally.
- 11:34SPEAKER_01: So if you look at your meat exports and, for example, cocoa in West Africa mostly, some of those products will also be impacted.
- 11:42SPEAKER_01: But you'll start to see that it also covers the industrialized um sectors, you know, and also some of the agricultural goods.
- 11:50SPEAKER_01: So it's like it's it covers everything that pertains to um, you know, that might have negative impact on the environment, right, in terms of GHG emissions and deforestation and all other climate change issues that might come with the production processes from these goods.
- 12:08SPEAKER_00: So, what would you then say is a way these regions can actually mitigate against some of these forthcoming challenges as you see them?
- 12:18SPEAKER_01: For example, in South Africa, we are as researchers we've been engaging with some industry players in the space trying to, in a way, co-create some of the other issues that we foresee coming.
- 12:29SPEAKER_01: There has been some lot of suggestions on the table actually, right, with regards to how we can mitigate some of these issues.
- 12:36SPEAKER_01: So we know that the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment they have what they call SAGEA, so which report GSG emissions, but the way they report GHG emissions, they're not reporting them at the product level.
- 12:50SPEAKER_01: So at the moment, we know that the CBEM will require entities now to start reporting GHG emissions at the product level.
- 12:57SPEAKER_01: So those for the two product lists that I just mentioned earlier on is that you need to account for the GSG emissions that are embedded in each of those products, right, in order for you as an exporter or as an entity that exports to the EU to gain the European market.
- 13:12SPEAKER_01: So you will have to start reporting on that.
- 13:14SPEAKER_01: And at the moment, South Africa, as much as we have a SAJIT, SAJET is not comparable to SIBAM.
- 13:19SPEAKER_01: So in the short term, what we can do is that we can you know engage with, for example, DFFE and other like the DTIC Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, or also our national treasury, if you like, so that we engage on some of these possible solutions in the short term so that some South African entities that are affected by you know the likes of CBAM, then they can actually start accounting and reporting for, for example, GHG emissions in the short term.
- 13:48SPEAKER_01: At the moment, when we engage with the FFB and other, for example, government departments and even industry people, we don't have to just only focus on iron, steel, and aluminium.
- 13:58SPEAKER_01: So we have to focus broadly on uh you know accounting systems or GHG accounting systems or methodologies for the country, right?
- 14:06SPEAKER_01: Considering all other products and sectors that might be looted later on, not only by CBAM but by other mechanisms that are introduced uh globally.
- 14:16SPEAKER_01: So that's the first thing that can happen, right?
- 14:19SPEAKER_01: So is engaging around developing a more comparable accounting system, right?
- 14:24SPEAKER_01: Carbon or GHG emission system, right?
- 14:28SPEAKER_01: We know that, for example, the introduction of CBEM, especially for developing countries, is a problem because now we are not prepared, we don't have the systems in place.
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: So the implementation period is quite soon, right?
- 14:41SPEAKER_01: 2026 is not that far.
- 14:43SPEAKER_01: During the transition period, then to account for the GHG emissions, the time frame is quite short and it might cause other problems in terms of industries, for example, importing GHG emissions incorrectly, or even not submitting the GHG emissions data to the EU.
- 15:01SPEAKER_01: So there is what they call the declarance, right?
- 15:04SPEAKER_01: So when you're gonna be exporting your stuff that then you have to declare your GHG emissions to those import declarants in the EU.
- 15:11SPEAKER_01: So what we can do to mitigate some of those issues also in the short term is that we can in the meantime start engaging with the EU, right?
- 15:20SPEAKER_01: To say that, you know, the time that you've given us to transition or even to implement the SIBEM, right?
- 15:26SPEAKER_01: The mechanism, then it's too short, then we might, you know, considering that we are developing countries, right, then we can get more, for example, implementation time or transition period.
- 15:36SPEAKER_01: And of course, there are some other issues that come with that, for example, entities they are, for example, they don't even know what CBEM is, right?
- 15:43SPEAKER_01: So there is a lot of awareness that needs to happen in the space to share some of these, you know, uh impacts to broader audience, and later on, the EU might need to start funding, for example, capacity building and technical assistance programs that might come into the implementation or the adoption of SIBEM, especially in developing countries.
- 16:05SPEAKER_01: So those are the two main things that can happen that we can do.
- 16:09SPEAKER_01: In the meantime, of course, there's a lot of other interventions right in the longer term that we can do.
- 16:14SPEAKER_01: Like, for example, you know, um I know at the WTO now there has been a lot of research or engagement in terms of trying to bridge the gap that has already been there in terms of climate change and trade.
- 16:25SPEAKER_01: So we start to also see these things, these developments at an international or at the multilateral level where multiple bodies are coming together to engage on issues that, for example, that you know, you might say that they've been stimulated by the introduction of CBEM globally, where they say that, for example, there should be a link between climate change and trade, right?
- 16:45SPEAKER_01: And which I think CBEM is there to also say that we also saw the gap and trying to close that gap, right?
- 16:51SPEAKER_01: So there might be a lot of engagements and negotiations at the WTO with but of course, remember a lot of people they say that the engagements in the WTO and even negotiations they can take a very long time.
- 17:04SPEAKER_01: So, in the short term, I think it is wise to start now raising some of these uh issues while already everyone is talking about them and try to position, for example, not only South Africa but the African continent or even developing countries in general, say that the introduction of CBEM is not positioning African countries or developing countries to be globally competitive, as is actually highlighted under the WTO that the system is there to promote fairness, right, among different countries in terms of trade and the like.
- 17:35SPEAKER_01: So there is a need to open that door of negotiations, especially positioning the continent, to say that the system has always been there, then we have to live by the system as it is.
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: But at the moment, you know, there are a lot of issues in the space there.
- 17:49SPEAKER_01: Sure.
- 17:49SPEAKER_00: I mean, you mentioned a lot of the implications, you know, for the continent.
- 17:53SPEAKER_00: Do you see any opportunities that uh it has brought to the continent having the opportunity to collaborate?
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: You mentioned the WTO or to have a more systemic collaboration among the region.
- 18:08SPEAKER_01: There's a need for collaboration, right, in the African context, right?
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: So you see at the moment a lot of people I know they talk about, and we know this for a fact that Africa has contributed less, you know, uh historically to GHG emissions.
- 18:25SPEAKER_01: So their historical contribution is less than 3%, right?
- 18:28SPEAKER_01: And now the introduction of SIBEM, one of the other objectives of SIBEM is to also promote climate change actions, you know, abroad, so not only in Europe but across the world, right?
- 18:40SPEAKER_01: So we know that Africa contributed less to historical GC emissions, is also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, right?
- 18:50SPEAKER_01: And it still has like one of the you know natural resources that we can tap into.
- 18:55SPEAKER_01: So there's a possibility of, for example, start engaging on perhaps creating what we call a regional carbon market or something, right?
- 19:04SPEAKER_01: So in that market we can utilize it to, for example, sell what we call carbon credits, right?
- 19:11SPEAKER_01: We sell carbon credits to, for example, you know, to Europe or to other high-emitting entities globally to offset the um, you know, their GC emissions that they emit on a yearly basis.
- 19:23SPEAKER_01: So that's one option.
- 19:24SPEAKER_01: So there's a need for utilizing the resources that Africa has, which we're looking at the natural resources that we have in terms of, for example, the forest that the African continent has, then we can utilize that for carbon credits.
- 19:38SPEAKER_01: And there's a need for a collaborative approach there in terms of creating what we can call the regional carbon market in the continent.
- 19:45SPEAKER_01: So that's one opportunity.
- 19:47SPEAKER_01: And another opportunity is that you know, once you report your GHG emissions, you account them and report them into the EU, then from 2026, you will, you know, whatever you're gonna be reporting has to be verifiable by third-party verifiers, right?
- 20:00SPEAKER_01: And that actually opens a lot of doors for SMMEs.
- 20:04SPEAKER_01: Well, already I've been engaging with some people.
- 20:07SPEAKER_01: I think there were some guys from Kenya who they consider themselves carbon auditors, right?
- 20:12SPEAKER_01: For example, if firms in the African continent they report that this is what you've emitted in terms of emissions, then all the process and everything you know um in place that is, we say we have all of this stuff, and they come as auditors or verifiers and they verify that actually what the entity reported is actually true.
- 20:31SPEAKER_01: So there is that big opportunity at the moment in terms of small businesses playing into the space, acting as, for example, verifiers or what you call auditors, right, of these GHG missions.
- 20:42SPEAKER_01: And at the moment in the African continent, there is a lot of those guys in the space active, but there is a lot of opportunity in the space there.
- 20:50SPEAKER_00: Alright, as we are in this transition, what are the opportunities for it process to be just as well, knowing that we're also on a just transition in South Africa?
- 21:00SPEAKER_01: So a just process, right?
- 21:02SPEAKER_01: Remember, um, first of all, requires participation, right?
- 21:05SPEAKER_01: Engagement.
- 21:06SPEAKER_01: So there needs to be a lot of more engagement.
- 21:09SPEAKER_01: So you need to educate people.
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: And what we've realized now is that a lot of entities, even people, need more time to transition, especially looking at uh developing countries or countries that don't have a lot of financial resources to transition.
- 21:22SPEAKER_01: So there's a need of trying to understand the problem and the need for a certain entity to transition.
- 21:31SPEAKER_01: And at the moment, looking at CBEM, there's you know there's a lot of time pressures there, right?
- 21:35SPEAKER_01: And the more pressure that we get in terms of, for example, implementation, there are gonna be a lot of mistakes that we make along the way, and that you know is not gonna be a just process.
- 21:45SPEAKER_01: And again, there's a lot of other issues that come with the implementation of CBEM, right?
- 21:48SPEAKER_01: For example, you know, we mentioned earlier on about increased cost, right?
- 21:52SPEAKER_01: So once the cost increases, for example, for NDTs, entities will, for example, start looking into other measures like reducing.
- 22:00SPEAKER_01: You know, work, we're gonna see a lot of job shading, right?
- 22:03SPEAKER_01: People being retrenched or people let go at work due to less profitability of some of these entities.
- 22:10SPEAKER_01: And in that process, and a rather just process also aligns that, for example, you know, the people who will be impacted by the transition, there should be a plan to make sure that we cater for those uh people.
- 22:22SPEAKER_01: So, in this case, if um you know the profitability of businesses suffers and people lose their jobs, do we have a plan for those people who lose their jobs due to, for example, CBEM and other measures that are introduced in the global space?
- 22:37SPEAKER_01: There is a need to understand all these issues and a lot of participation and engagement with people who will be impacted.
- 22:42SPEAKER_01: It might be entities in this case are gonna be highly impacted, which will see an indirect or even direct effect you know of CBEM coming into the livelihoods of people on the ground.
- 22:54SPEAKER_01: And we need to understand all those issues, and we also need to collaboratively co-create some of the interventions, right?
- 23:02SPEAKER_01: Of how we can mitigate some of those issues or the effects that might come into as the result of, for example, CBEM and CBEM-like measures implementation globally.
- 23:11SPEAKER_01: So there's a lot of engagements that we need to do and to understand the issues on the ground.
- 23:17SPEAKER_00: Alright.
- 23:17SPEAKER_00: Thank you, Sidami, for shedding light on the implications of CBAM for the European Union and Africa.
- 23:23SPEAKER_00: Do you have any closing remarks?
- 23:25SPEAKER_01: So, as the CBAM has already entered its transition period, right?
- 23:29SPEAKER_01: So I'm I'm sure you can imagine this, but it entered from the 1st of October 2023.
- 23:35SPEAKER_01: So from the 1st to December 2023, then that's the last quarter of the year, right?
- 23:42SPEAKER_01: So during the transition period, entities that are exporting to the EU they're required to submit their reports on a quarterly basis.
- 23:50SPEAKER_01: So for this quarter, they have to submit um the quarterly report like a month later, or data that's gonna go into the European clearance, right?
- 23:59SPEAKER_01: So I know that you know a lot of people might not be aware of that.
- 24:02SPEAKER_01: They were actually required to you know submit their first report next year, which is January 2024, by the end of January 2024.
- 24:12SPEAKER_01: But but if you don't have, for example, you're not aware of CBEM and you or you don't have any systems on a lot of issues, then I think it's uh wise to start communicating some of those issues, for example, with departments, especially in South Africa, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition has been active in the space, then maybe if you engage with them, then I think you can also engage with us because we have also been engaged in the space as well.
- 24:36SPEAKER_01: So um, so that we can highlight some of these issues while it's still early.
- 24:41SPEAKER_01: As much as there is a lot of grace period that, for example, for the first two quarterly reports, so the one that is due in Janu next year, and the other one that is due in April, so the April 2024 uh report is due for the first quarter of 2024.
- 24:56SPEAKER_01: So for those two first reports, the quarter for 2023 and the first quarter of 2021, there's gonna be a grace period up until the 31st of July 2024.
- 25:05SPEAKER_01: For entities, for example, if you didn't report your GHG emissions correctly, or you didn't even report them, then you still have that grace period to submit those first two reports.
- 25:15SPEAKER_01: So there is a lot of awareness, I think, that needs to go into the SBEM so that a lot of people are aware of that.
- 25:20SPEAKER_01: You know, CBEM is here and it has already entered its first phase, which is the transitional phase.
- 25:26SPEAKER_01: And the first report is due end of January 2024.
- 25:30SPEAKER_00: Sure, those are some very tight deadlines.
- 25:33SPEAKER_00: But thank you so much for sharing your invaluable insights into understanding how all of this policy will shape the future of trade, the dynamics in the region.
- 25:43SPEAKER_00: This wraps up today's episode, and a huge thank you to our guest on sharing all of his expertise on CBAM and its impact for Africa's value proposition to the UE.
- 25:54SPEAKER_00: And to our listeners, don't forget to subscribe, leave a review, and connect with us on social media.
- 26:00SPEAKER_00: Until next time, I'm your host, Nauli Machinana, signing off.