Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAF Week 14 Best Bets

Transcript

NCAAF Week 14 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
0:06
Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
0:12
Speaker 1: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
0:15
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
0:18
Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
0:20
Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing,
0:24
Speaker 1: two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
0:27
Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season, Man with
0:32
Speaker 1: bookends slump that I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached
0:38
Speaker 1: a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
0:42
Speaker 1: hat man, I don't know what is going on with
0:44
Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
0:47
Speaker 1: don't even know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
0:51
Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
0:54
Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Men, back with you after
0:57
Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have with you,
1:00
Speaker 1: as I always am until I die, at least oh
1:04
Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well
1:07
Speaker 1: for me. Own five the worst month that I've ever
1:11
Speaker 1: had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't know
1:14
Speaker 1: what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump, Yes,
1:17
Speaker 1: the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
1:25
Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
1:33
Speaker 1: It's towed back with you. This is Toads Still Sports
1:38
Speaker 1: College Football Week fourteen edition. I will rant about today's
1:45
Speaker 1: losing day tomorrow because I'm just sick of it. I'm
1:49
Speaker 1: tired of everything. I don't want to do it, don't
1:52
Speaker 1: want to do any of this anymore. We went too
1:55
Speaker 1: and one in college football today, so that's fine. I
2:00
Speaker 1: mean it was NHL was really the problem today. I'm
2:02
Speaker 1: not happy about it at all. We'll talk about the
2:07
Speaker 1: rest of the college football slate here for tomorrow. I
2:09
Speaker 1: feel like I'm being too selective here by giving out
2:12
Speaker 1: only two plays and then watch them both lose or whatever.
2:16
Speaker 1: It's gonna be awesome when that happens, obviously, Yeah, I
2:21
Speaker 1: mean not. Yeah. I don't have much else to say.
2:25
Speaker 1: We can get into it. I guess I don't even
2:28
Speaker 1: have the banners in yet, but I guess I will
2:30
Speaker 1: put them in now while while I'm doing this I
2:33
Speaker 1: was gonna update the image on this thing too, But
2:37
Speaker 1: what are my plays? I don't even remember, man, No,
2:40
Speaker 1: I do remember. I don't like either of them. They
2:43
Speaker 1: both suck, all right, They're both gonna be losers, obviously.
2:50
Speaker 1: All right, I'll update the image later. Let's get into this.
2:55
Speaker 1: Usually I have the scoreboard up, all right, and we
2:59
Speaker 1: do have game that I think are still going on
3:01
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah, Arizona looks like I was correct about
3:03
Speaker 1: that going against the market in that one. So yeah,
3:08
Speaker 1: my gauge was correct, and I did get Texas correct
3:11
Speaker 1: and did not get a miss slash Mississippi State correct.
3:14
Speaker 1: So there we go. All right, noon, we have a
3:18
Speaker 1: big game, maybe the biggest game on Fox. Number one,
3:22
Speaker 1: Ohio State, number fifteen, Michigan. This is at Michigan, I
3:26
Speaker 1: believe at the Big House. A lot of things going
3:30
Speaker 1: on in this game, man, Ohio State. They're in a
3:33
Speaker 1: win and in scenario. So you know, I don't love that,
3:37
Speaker 1: or it's not even that, it's if they win or
3:40
Speaker 1: Indiana loses all that. Actually Indiana already won today, so
3:43
Speaker 1: now it is a win and in scenario for Ohio
3:46
Speaker 1: State because Indiana won by a ton, which was expected anyway,
3:50
Speaker 1: So yes, it is. If Ohio State wins this game,
3:52
Speaker 1: they're in the Big Ten title game. I believe if
3:56
Speaker 1: they lose, there are scenarios where they will not get in.
3:59
Speaker 1: I think Michigan actually doesn't control their own destiny, So
4:03
Speaker 1: I actually do kind of like that. I like teams
4:05
Speaker 1: that don't control their own destiny. Man, I think Michigan
4:08
Speaker 1: they if they win. I do think they actually need
4:11
Speaker 1: help to get into the championship game, even though they
4:15
Speaker 1: would I think have the tiebreaker over Ohio State. But
4:18
Speaker 1: I guess they need other one loss teams to lose
4:21
Speaker 1: at the same time. Something like that, or there's something
4:24
Speaker 1: something about that scenario. But as I mentioned with Texas
4:27
Speaker 1: A and m Today, teams that control their own destiny,
4:32
Speaker 1: I don't like it because it's like the pressure just
4:35
Speaker 1: builds up and it's just there's too much weight on that.
4:37
Speaker 1: If we win, we're in, and usually that team is overvalued,
4:41
Speaker 1: so I think that will be the case with Ohio
4:42
Speaker 1: State here. I do kind of lean to Michigan in
4:45
Speaker 1: this one. Ohio State is a ten point favorite. They're public,
4:49
Speaker 1: seventy three percent of tickets, eighty one percent of the
4:51
Speaker 1: cash on them. I mean the number. I don't know
4:55
Speaker 1: if it necessarily looks too high or anything like that.
4:58
Speaker 1: I mean I almost think it looks too easy to
4:59
Speaker 1: lay with Ohio State because they're undefeated and they are
5:03
Speaker 1: probably legitimately the top team in the country. The total
5:06
Speaker 1: is low, though it's down a forty three and a
5:07
Speaker 1: half money coming in on the under expected to be
5:10
Speaker 1: a playoff style atmosphere here, as it seems to usually be.
5:14
Speaker 1: I think last year's game was way low scoring, so
5:17
Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with the under in the game.
5:20
Speaker 1: I think you've lost a little bit of value on that.
5:22
Speaker 1: But also that does mean that taking the points. Each
5:25
Speaker 1: point is going to be worth more, so it makes
5:27
Speaker 1: sense to take the points in a way because of that.
5:30
Speaker 1: My hesitation with Michigan, though, would be that Ohio State
5:35
Speaker 1: they know what happened last year. Man, it's like it's
5:38
Speaker 1: been the thing. Oh my god, Ohio State can't beat Michigan.
5:40
Speaker 1: I don't even remember when the last time they beat
5:42
Speaker 1: Michigan was, but we know Michigan pulled off the upset
5:45
Speaker 1: last year at Ohio State, so I do think Ohio
5:47
Speaker 1: State will remember that. Because these teams do not like
5:51
Speaker 1: each other, so there is the potential that Ohio State
5:53
Speaker 1: shows up for that reason, and maybe Ohio State actually
5:57
Speaker 1: kind of puts more weight into this than even the
5:59
Speaker 1: Big Ten championship game, because I mean they know they're
6:02
Speaker 1: gonna be in the playoff at this point, so yeah,
6:06
Speaker 1: I mean they might actually weigh this game fairly heavily.
6:08
Speaker 1: So I have a very very timid lean, I guess
6:13
Speaker 1: or tepid leen whatever on Michigan getting the points. We
6:17
Speaker 1: have number five Texas Tech at West Virginia also at
6:21
Speaker 1: noon on ESPN. West Virginia cannot become BO eligible, so
6:25
Speaker 1: this is their final hurrah. It is their senior day,
6:28
Speaker 1: so I do expect them to show up for that reason.
6:31
Speaker 1: Texas Tech they can make the Big twelve title game.
6:36
Speaker 1: I believe they're gonna win an in scenario, I think
6:38
Speaker 1: if they win, then they're in. So they're in a
6:41
Speaker 1: spot that I don't like as well. Again, they control
6:43
Speaker 1: their own destiny. If they win, they will be in
6:45
Speaker 1: the Big twelve title game. I don't really think they're
6:48
Speaker 1: gonna lose West Virginia though, but it is a matter
6:51
Speaker 1: of will they cover, and I'm not so sure about that.
6:55
Speaker 1: Texas Tech actually is coming out of a bye, so
6:57
Speaker 1: both of these teams actually had a bye. I think
6:59
Speaker 1: these might be like some of the only teams that
7:01
Speaker 1: actually had to buy this past week, this late into
7:03
Speaker 1: the season. Texas tex of course, went into the buy
7:06
Speaker 1: in a really good note, winning four games in a row.
7:08
Speaker 1: So I don't think that buy is helpful because I
7:11
Speaker 1: think that buy can be a momentum stop or when
7:13
Speaker 1: you go into it on a good note. Whereas West
7:16
Speaker 1: Virginia also had to buy, and they went into the
7:18
Speaker 1: buy on a bad note losing at Arizona State of
7:21
Speaker 1: They actually played pretty well and covered as an underdog,
7:24
Speaker 1: So I don't know, do we really say that was
7:27
Speaker 1: a bad note. I mean, yeah, they did lose the game,
7:29
Speaker 1: so I would say, yeah, I guess, so I think
7:33
Speaker 1: West Virginia should be using that buy a little bit
7:36
Speaker 1: more effectively overall. Yeah, I would lean to taking the
7:39
Speaker 1: points here. I don't want to make it a play
7:41
Speaker 1: or anything like that, but I would probably take the
7:43
Speaker 1: points with West Virginia. The money seems to disagree with
7:45
Speaker 1: Texas Tech Up from twenty and after twenty three, sixty
7:49
Speaker 1: six percent of tickets eighty six percent of the cash
7:52
Speaker 1: on them, A lot of money, seemingly laying it on
7:54
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, and I don't really know why. I don't
7:58
Speaker 1: know if there's is there, like a West Virginia quarterback
8:00
Speaker 1: injury or something. I don't know what's going on. Even
8:02
Speaker 1: if there was, I don't know how much it would
8:04
Speaker 1: necessarily matter. It doesn't seem like that's the case. So
8:09
Speaker 1: I have no idea, But that's probably the way that
8:12
Speaker 1: I would look at that game. Pinsy, what's up man?
8:15
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. I'm hoping that this show is
8:18
Speaker 1: not gonna take that long, but we know it always does.
8:22
Speaker 1: All for two additional plays, we had three today. I
8:27
Speaker 1: think I'm only gonna have two tomorrow, though, unless I
8:30
Speaker 1: decide last minute to do something. But I think I'm
8:32
Speaker 1: not going to another big game on ABC at noon,
8:35
Speaker 1: number twelve Miami number twenty two pit. This game is
8:39
Speaker 1: at Pitt. But I mean, I have been talking about
8:42
Speaker 1: how I think Pitt is an overrated team. I don't
8:44
Speaker 1: think they're that good, which is part of the reason
8:47
Speaker 1: why Miami is obviously the favorite here in this one. Now,
8:51
Speaker 1: both these teams do not control their own destiny, though,
8:53
Speaker 1: so both these teams need to win, but also need
8:56
Speaker 1: help to get into the ACC Championship game. Miami does
9:01
Speaker 1: kind of have an outside chance of making the playoff
9:03
Speaker 1: as well, so they do have that in front of
9:06
Speaker 1: them as well. So that might be Miami needs like
9:08
Speaker 1: style points in this game, so maybe there is more
9:12
Speaker 1: motivation on the Miami side. Pitt also is coming off
9:16
Speaker 1: a huge win over Georgia Tech. Man, I mean that
9:19
Speaker 1: was huge. Yes, they still need to win this game
9:21
Speaker 1: at home. Yes, it is senior day for them, so
9:23
Speaker 1: I don't really want to come in and fade them here.
9:26
Speaker 1: And it's also gonna be Miami playing in like freezing temperatures,
9:30
Speaker 1: which I don't love. Although they did win at Virginia
9:33
Speaker 1: Tech last week. I don't know what the temperature was
9:35
Speaker 1: in this game. I assume it was probably cold, although
9:39
Speaker 1: we don't even see it here. Thanks ESPN for not
9:41
Speaker 1: even telling me what the weather info was. It's probably
9:44
Speaker 1: gonna be colder in Pittsburgh though, But Miami did get
9:46
Speaker 1: the job done, although they were expected to as a favorite.
9:51
Speaker 1: All that being said, I mean Pitt coming off the
9:54
Speaker 1: bigger win, Pitt being I think pretty overrated, Like I
9:58
Speaker 1: don't really know if they're gonna be able to slow
9:59
Speaker 1: down this Miami offense enough, and Pitt does not defend
10:02
Speaker 1: the pass very well, and Miami does a lot of that.
10:05
Speaker 1: I would probably lay the points with Miami, although right
10:08
Speaker 1: now it looks like the money is kind of disagreeing
10:10
Speaker 1: with it. Fifty three percent of the tickets, fifty two
10:12
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, and the total is
10:14
Speaker 1: pretty low at forty nine and a half. Uh, the
10:17
Speaker 1: number has gone up a little bit, though, it looks
10:18
Speaker 1: like it's headed towards seven. I mean, if you like Miami,
10:22
Speaker 1: I would try to find the six and a half
10:24
Speaker 1: out there, obviously because seven is that key number. But yeah,
10:27
Speaker 1: I mean I have a slight lean towards laying it
10:29
Speaker 1: with Miami, just based on what the teams did last
10:32
Speaker 1: week and Miami needing style points. So I mean, I
10:38
Speaker 1: do think both teams are gonna show up though, So
10:41
Speaker 1: I yeah, I don't. I don't want to do anything
10:43
Speaker 1: with that game, Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
10:48
Speaker 1: All right? Going through all the ranked matchups first year,
10:52
Speaker 1: ESPN two at one pm, a weird time, we have
10:54
Speaker 1: UCF at BYU. UCF does need one more win to
10:58
Speaker 1: become Bowl eligible, which is probably not gonna happen, But
11:03
Speaker 1: there is gonna be pressure on BYU because I do
11:05
Speaker 1: think they're in a win and in scenario here. I
11:08
Speaker 1: believe if they win, they will be in the Big
11:10
Speaker 1: twelve title game and they do have the potential to
11:13
Speaker 1: make the playoff as well, so they do kind of
11:15
Speaker 1: need to win for that reason too. But the win
11:19
Speaker 1: and in scenario, you know me, I don't love that scenario,
11:23
Speaker 1: So I do think it escalates the pressure on that team.
11:28
Speaker 1: So I don't really love it for BYU. BYU is
11:30
Speaker 1: coming off a decent win on the road at Cincinnati.
11:33
Speaker 1: I mean, UCF had a much easier time than it.
11:36
Speaker 1: Kind of didn't look good, and they're win last week
11:39
Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State, barely winning his twelve and a half
11:42
Speaker 1: way favorite. So I think you could say that's kind
11:44
Speaker 1: of an escape for UCF there or was that two
11:46
Speaker 1: weeks ago? Even let me see, No, it was last week.
11:51
Speaker 1: I don't know. For some reason, I was thinking Oklahoma
11:52
Speaker 1: State played Kansas State, but maybe that was two weeks ago.
11:55
Speaker 1: But yeah, U SEF. I mean they had to win
11:57
Speaker 1: that game right at the wire there. That's not I mean,
12:02
Speaker 1: that's not a good performance. So I do think what
12:04
Speaker 1: that means is UCF is gonna be kind of shocked
12:07
Speaker 1: back into focus after that, So I do expect a
12:10
Speaker 1: more focused effort from them here. How will they tolerate
12:12
Speaker 1: having to go to high elevation. I don't really know,
12:16
Speaker 1: but you're getting seventeen and a half points if you
12:18
Speaker 1: like Central Florida, forty seven and a half is the total.
12:22
Speaker 1: Like BYU is kind of a physical team at this point,
12:25
Speaker 1: which is kind of weird to see that being the case,
12:29
Speaker 1: but it is in Central Florida. They do have the
12:32
Speaker 1: ability to cover as an underdog because they run the
12:34
Speaker 1: football a lot, so they should be able to do that.
12:38
Speaker 1: It is a low total, so again, taking the seventeen
12:41
Speaker 1: does kind of make sense to me in this one
12:42
Speaker 1: for all those reasons. Ninety one percent of tickets, ninety
12:45
Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on BYU. They look very
12:48
Speaker 1: very public, So yeah, I mean, my lean in that
12:51
Speaker 1: game would be to taking the points with UCF there,
12:54
Speaker 1: And again I liked that they looked horrible last week,
12:56
Speaker 1: but I do worry about them having to go into
12:58
Speaker 1: elevation here. I don't believe they played Utah this year,
13:01
Speaker 1: so they have not really done that this season. And
13:05
Speaker 1: I don't again. I still don't love fading teams on
13:07
Speaker 1: Senior Night either. I mean, there are certain situations where
13:10
Speaker 1: I'll do it, but I don't want to do it there.
13:14
Speaker 1: Number six Oregon is at Washington on CBS. Oregon is
13:18
Speaker 1: in a scenario where they can make the Big twelve
13:20
Speaker 1: title game, I think still, but I think they need
13:22
Speaker 1: to win and they need help. I think they need
13:24
Speaker 1: Michigan to beat Ohio State, and I don't know if
13:26
Speaker 1: they might need more than that too, I'm not sure.
13:30
Speaker 1: And of course they need to win. They are coming
13:31
Speaker 1: off a big win last week though as well against USC.
13:35
Speaker 1: Now they're going on the road out to Washington and
13:39
Speaker 1: this is an old PAC twelve rivalry. Manber Washington has
13:43
Speaker 1: done well a lot of times in this rivalry in
13:45
Speaker 1: the past. They did win twice against Oregon two years ago.
13:48
Speaker 1: I think Oregon beat them last year though, if I'm
13:50
Speaker 1: not mistaken, so that might mean there's maybe a little
13:53
Speaker 1: bit of a revenge motive for Washington here. Yeah, Washington
13:56
Speaker 1: lost forty nine to twenty one out Oregon last year
14:00
Speaker 1: and in this game, Number six ranked Oregon only laying
14:06
Speaker 1: a touchdown here. It almost looks too easy to lay
14:08
Speaker 1: the points with Oregon and the numbers gone up. So
14:10
Speaker 1: if you do like Washington, which that is the way
14:12
Speaker 1: that I lean here, you are getting a little bit
14:15
Speaker 1: more value on it. Eighty one percent of tickets, seventy
14:17
Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Oregon. Yeah, I mean,
14:21
Speaker 1: my opinion is to take the points with Washington in
14:24
Speaker 1: this game. Don't really have much of a feel otherwise.
14:28
Speaker 1: They are coming off an easy win last week. They
14:30
Speaker 1: went to UCLA and beat them pretty easily. So yeah,
14:36
Speaker 1: not a play for me, though, ABC at three point
14:39
Speaker 1: thirty has LSU in Oklahoma. Of course, Oregon is still
14:43
Speaker 1: also playing to make the playoff. But I mean, even
14:46
Speaker 1: if they lose this game, I think they're still in
14:48
Speaker 1: position to make the playoff, which is I guess another
14:51
Speaker 1: reason to maybe fade them. Because we have a lot
14:53
Speaker 1: of things going on. You have to gauge like playoff scenarios,
14:56
Speaker 1: you have to gauge conference championship scenarios. I mean, it
15:00
Speaker 1: makes this all really difficult. So I wind up being
15:02
Speaker 1: very very selective this week because there are just a
15:06
Speaker 1: lot of hesitations that I have LSU at Oklahoma. Oklahoma's
15:10
Speaker 1: ranked eighth in the country. This game, I think It's
15:14
Speaker 1: going to be a battle of defenses. I mean, these
15:16
Speaker 1: defenses have been good. LSU's offense has been a big
15:20
Speaker 1: disappointment this year. They have been a disappointment this year.
15:23
Speaker 1: But maybe they will show up for this because LSU,
15:26
Speaker 1: I mean, they had championship aspirations. They're already in a bowl,
15:29
Speaker 1: their bowl eligible. But I just don't know that LSU
15:32
Speaker 1: is going to care that much about whatever bowl they're in,
15:34
Speaker 1: so they might put more weight into this, like, hey,
15:37
Speaker 1: we can at least play against Oklahoma and maybe spoil
15:40
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's season here, because I think Oklahoma does have a
15:44
Speaker 1: I don't know if they have a chance to make
15:45
Speaker 1: the title game at this point or not for the SEC,
15:49
Speaker 1: but they're still playing for the playoff scenario because there
15:52
Speaker 1: are two lost teams, so they definitely cannot take a
15:54
Speaker 1: three third loss. But I think that does mean that
15:57
Speaker 1: the pressure is going to be on them. It is
15:59
Speaker 1: senior night. They're coming up a pretty unimpressive performance against Missouri.
16:03
Speaker 1: But you want to talk about unimpressive, LSU really unimpressive
16:08
Speaker 1: last week beating Western Kentucky thirteen to ten, although the
16:12
Speaker 1: last the only touchdown the Western Kentucky score was a
16:15
Speaker 1: fumble six near the end of the game, so the
16:18
Speaker 1: game was kind of over at that point. It was
16:21
Speaker 1: thirteen to three LSU. But that was still a very
16:24
Speaker 1: bad performance. They've been bad for a couple of weeks,
16:26
Speaker 1: so maybe they will want to redeem themselves from that
16:29
Speaker 1: and play a little bit better here. It's a very
16:32
Speaker 1: low total down to thirty six and a half. Now,
16:35
Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with an under, although you've lost
16:38
Speaker 1: a little bit of value on that number. It is
16:41
Speaker 1: really really low. But I don't think the public is
16:43
Speaker 1: really gonna want to do anything as far as playing
16:45
Speaker 1: an undering this one. But you've had offenses that have struggled.
16:48
Speaker 1: You've had defenses that look good here from both sides.
16:51
Speaker 1: Matier hasn't looked good for Oklahoma. Sin's his injuries. So
16:55
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the under, But also taking ten
16:58
Speaker 1: and a half with LSU with this slow if it's total,
17:01
Speaker 1: does look like the right move on the side. Eighty
17:04
Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets only eighty two percent of
17:06
Speaker 1: the cash on Oklahoma, Yeah, I would lean to taking
17:09
Speaker 1: the points. It's just a matter of how much is
17:11
Speaker 1: LS Do you really care about this game, which is
17:14
Speaker 1: what you really have to gauge like it's not a
17:16
Speaker 1: huge rivalry or anything like that. So if you want LSU,
17:19
Speaker 1: you got to make sure they're gonna have motivation here.
17:21
Speaker 1: And I'm a little bit worried about that, although that
17:25
Speaker 1: is the way that I would lean in the game
17:27
Speaker 1: ESPN at three point thirty PM. We have the big
17:33
Speaker 1: Tennessee rivalry here between Vandy and Tennessee. I mean, this
17:36
Speaker 1: is a rivalry game where I do think both teams
17:38
Speaker 1: will show up here. Vandy's ranked fourteenth, Tennessee's ranked nineteenth.
17:42
Speaker 1: I think Vandy might have a little bit more to
17:44
Speaker 1: play for here because even though I don't really think
17:47
Speaker 1: they can make the SEC championship game, I think they're
17:51
Speaker 1: too far behind and they've lost the tiebreaker to too
17:53
Speaker 1: many of the other two loss teams here. They still
17:57
Speaker 1: haven't beat Tennessee, I think in a long time. So
17:59
Speaker 1: I think that's still a reason why they're gonna show
18:01
Speaker 1: up here and they could still make the playoff. I think,
18:05
Speaker 1: like as a two loss SEC team, I think they
18:07
Speaker 1: still have a shot at that depending on what they do.
18:11
Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna be a little bit more
18:12
Speaker 1: motivated here because they're gonna have a three lost Tennessee
18:15
Speaker 1: team that is out of it. Although Tennessee will be
18:18
Speaker 1: their senior day, I think they might play with a
18:21
Speaker 1: chip on their shoulder because now Vandy is ranked ahead
18:24
Speaker 1: of them, so that might piss Tennessee off a little bit.
18:28
Speaker 1: Tennessee coming off a win over Florida last week, I mean,
18:32
Speaker 1: nothing to really see there, although I think they usually
18:35
Speaker 1: struggle at Florida, but whatever. And then Vandy had no
18:38
Speaker 1: real issue with Kentucky last week, which I thought Kentucky
18:41
Speaker 1: would show up in that game and they did not.
18:44
Speaker 1: I would slightly lean to taking the points with Vandy here.
18:47
Speaker 1: Fifty five percent of tickets fifty seven percent of the
18:49
Speaker 1: cash on Tennessee looks like you'd still get three with
18:52
Speaker 1: Vandy if you do like that. I don't know if
18:54
Speaker 1: that cash percentage is gonna stay that way or not.
18:58
Speaker 1: I also like the over in this game. The total
19:00
Speaker 1: is way high, up to sixty seven, but again it's
19:03
Speaker 1: high for a reason. You got two pretty prolific offenses here,
19:07
Speaker 1: and neither team is very good defensively, so I think
19:10
Speaker 1: the over does make sense in that game as well.
19:13
Speaker 1: It's actually probably better than the side in my opinion.
19:16
Speaker 1: Although I don't really do much with totals, but that
19:19
Speaker 1: would be the way that I would lean ESPN at
19:23
Speaker 1: seven pm the Battle of the Virginia's. I'm very tempted
19:28
Speaker 1: to give out Virginia Tech as a play here, but
19:31
Speaker 1: we've lost some of the line value on this one
19:34
Speaker 1: because the line was at ten at one point or
19:38
Speaker 1: ten and a half, and now it's down to eight
19:40
Speaker 1: and a half. We still see a lot of the
19:42
Speaker 1: money coming into the Virginia Tech side. The total is
19:44
Speaker 1: a little high at fifty three and a half, but
19:46
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of tickets on Virginia seventy eight percent
19:50
Speaker 1: of the casual Virginia Tech. I like Virginia Tech in
19:53
Speaker 1: this one, plus the points. This is going to be
19:55
Speaker 1: their last game of the season. They're not going to
19:57
Speaker 1: a bowl. It's a huge rivalry game, so I think
20:00
Speaker 1: they're gonna show up for this one. And as far
20:02
Speaker 1: as Virginia is concerned, they control their own destiny as
20:06
Speaker 1: far as getting into the ACC Championship, which that is
20:09
Speaker 1: their path to the title game. By the way, like
20:11
Speaker 1: a lot of these teams that can't make the playoff
20:14
Speaker 1: any other way, they can do it by winning their
20:17
Speaker 1: conference Championship, so Virginia could do that, even though if
20:21
Speaker 1: they don't win the ACC they're probably not gonna make
20:23
Speaker 1: the playoff. But that is their path right now. But
20:25
Speaker 1: their path is again it's one of the really simple ones.
20:27
Speaker 1: If they win, they're gonna be in the title game.
20:30
Speaker 1: So you know, I don't like that for Virginia. Virginia
20:35
Speaker 1: also is coming out of a bye and they went
20:37
Speaker 1: into the buy and a good note, beating Duke, who
20:40
Speaker 1: was one of their competitors to get into the ACC Championship.
20:43
Speaker 1: I think Dukes still technically can get into it, but
20:45
Speaker 1: that was a huge win for Virginia, and then they
20:47
Speaker 1: went into the by after that. I don't like that.
20:51
Speaker 1: When you go into the buy in a good note
20:53
Speaker 1: like that, I think you can come out a little
20:55
Speaker 1: bit flat. Man. I know this is at home, this
20:57
Speaker 1: is their senior Day, but Virginia Tech they might go
21:01
Speaker 1: all out here, man, because it is their final game. Again,
21:03
Speaker 1: it is a huge rivalry. They did play last week,
21:06
Speaker 1: but they lost in their senior Day to Miami. And
21:10
Speaker 1: the other reason why I think Virginia Tech might show
21:12
Speaker 1: up here is because they know who their coach is
21:15
Speaker 1: gonna be next year. It is gonna be James Franklin,
21:18
Speaker 1: and he is gonna be there at this game. So
21:20
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, they're players that are gonna stay. They're gonna
21:24
Speaker 1: be motivated to want to look good for James Franklin,
21:27
Speaker 1: who's gonna be in the house. You know, they're gonna
21:29
Speaker 1: want to look good for him for next year. So
21:32
Speaker 1: I like Virginia Tech and this one, this is like,
21:36
Speaker 1: this one is really close to making my card. Man, Like,
21:38
Speaker 1: let's just put it that way. I don't think I'm
21:40
Speaker 1: gonna quite do it for the reasons that I just said,
21:42
Speaker 1: but I do like it. I would take the points
21:45
Speaker 1: with the Virginia Tech for sure. It also looks way
21:48
Speaker 1: too easy to late single digits with a nine to
21:51
Speaker 1: two ranked eighteenth in the country Virginia team against a
21:54
Speaker 1: three to eight Virginia Tech team. But we know Virginia Tech.
21:58
Speaker 1: They started off ugly, they fired their co it gave
22:00
Speaker 1: them a little bit of a spark, and they've been
22:02
Speaker 1: pretty competitive since then for the most part. So I
22:08
Speaker 1: don't mind that for Virginia Tech either. I think Virginia
22:11
Speaker 1: is a bit overrated as well. I mean, what is
22:13
Speaker 1: Virginia really done? I mean they had that huge win,
22:16
Speaker 1: which is a win for us on the show against
22:18
Speaker 1: Florida State, and then since then, like, what have they
22:21
Speaker 1: done nothing? I mean, they beat Duke, that's a decent win.
22:25
Speaker 1: Winning at Louisville was a good win, but that was
22:27
Speaker 1: a loss on the show. Louisville probably should have won
22:30
Speaker 1: that game. In Virginia, I thought they were in a
22:32
Speaker 1: major letdown spot. Pretty shocking that they won that game outright,
22:37
Speaker 1: but there were some I think statistical anomalies in that one.
22:41
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't love Virginia and they haven't really
22:44
Speaker 1: been really showing an ability to win by margin that
22:48
Speaker 1: consistently either, so I don't love that either. So yeah,
22:51
Speaker 1: I like Virginia Tech in that one, plus the points.
22:56
Speaker 1: Alabama Auburn is gonna be one of my plays, So
22:58
Speaker 1: we'll hold off on that for now. Seven thirty pm NBC,
23:04
Speaker 1: we have UCLA and USC, who was ranked seventeenth of
23:06
Speaker 1: the country. USC. I think there's still an outside chance
23:10
Speaker 1: that maybe they can make the playoff. I don't believe
23:14
Speaker 1: that they can make the Big Ten title game anymore.
23:15
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure they're eliminated from that, and they are
23:18
Speaker 1: coming off a game against Oregon where they took the loss.
23:22
Speaker 1: But this is their senior day and this is a
23:24
Speaker 1: rivalry game, So will USC show up here? I don't know.
23:28
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously they're already Bowl eligible. I don't know
23:30
Speaker 1: if they feel that they could still make the playoff.
23:33
Speaker 1: I mean, it's kind of unlikely because they can't win
23:35
Speaker 1: the Big Ten and they're a three loss team, so
23:38
Speaker 1: it seems like, I don't know, man, it seems like
23:41
Speaker 1: those dreams are kind of over. So I don't really
23:43
Speaker 1: know if USC is gonna have a whole lot left
23:45
Speaker 1: here for UCLA. They're coming off a blowout loss in
23:49
Speaker 1: their senior night and they might be pissed about that.
23:51
Speaker 1: Just go on the road, maybe play better here in
23:55
Speaker 1: their rivalry game here. I like UCLA and this one
23:59
Speaker 1: plus the points, that's the way I would play. You're
24:01
Speaker 1: getting twenty one and a half now on it high
24:03
Speaker 1: total though of fifty nine, but again you're getting a
24:06
Speaker 1: lot of points, sixty three percent to take us fifty
24:09
Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash in USC is the money,
24:12
Speaker 1: seemingly agreeing with UCLA there, That's what I would do.
24:15
Speaker 1: I would take the points. I mean, USC, I just
24:18
Speaker 1: don't know what their motivation is necessarily gonna be here, man.
24:21
Speaker 1: For UCLA, they're not gonna play again after this because
24:24
Speaker 1: they're not boeligible. This is their last game of the season. Man,
24:27
Speaker 1: A lot of times you'll see that team put in
24:29
Speaker 1: a huge effort, especially in a rivalry game like that,
24:32
Speaker 1: where they consider themselves to basically be the little brother here.
24:35
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the way that I would lean in
24:37
Speaker 1: that one. Man. Again, I just don't know USC a
24:41
Speaker 1: questionably motivated team laying all those points. I don't love that.
24:46
Speaker 1: An ESPN you at seven point thirty Charlotte, who's just
24:49
Speaker 1: been a total train wreck this year is at Tulane.
24:53
Speaker 1: But of course Tulane's gonna be a gigantic favor here.
24:56
Speaker 1: For Tulane, they can make the American Championship game, man,
25:01
Speaker 1: and they can also they have a chance to make
25:04
Speaker 1: the playoff as well. I actually think Tulane I wanted
25:10
Speaker 1: to look at scores. I think Tulane is the is
25:14
Speaker 1: the team that's projected to get into the playoff right now,
25:16
Speaker 1: is that last seed. So they do have a lot
25:19
Speaker 1: on the line here and they might need style points.
25:21
Speaker 1: So that is maybe a reason to not want to
25:25
Speaker 1: fade Tulane here. I mean Charlotte again. Yeah, they have
25:28
Speaker 1: nothing to play for. This will be their last game.
25:30
Speaker 1: They've absolutely sucked. Though it is Tulane's senior night. Tulane
25:34
Speaker 1: is very public though ninety two tickets and cash. I
25:38
Speaker 1: don't really, I mean, I wouldn't want to lay thirty
25:40
Speaker 1: points with them. I mean really, I would hesitate to
25:43
Speaker 1: do that in most cases in football. I know I
25:45
Speaker 1: do it a little bit in basketball, but I don't
25:49
Speaker 1: want to take the points. So Charlotte here, I mean again, Tulane.
25:52
Speaker 1: If they think they need style points, they might actually
25:55
Speaker 1: try to run up the score in that one. So
25:57
Speaker 1: I would worry a little bit about trying to fade
25:59
Speaker 1: them there. ESPN two at eight pm. We have SMU
26:02
Speaker 1: ranked twenty first in the country going to cal SMU.
26:05
Speaker 1: They control their own destiny. I'm pretty sure if they
26:08
Speaker 1: win this game, I believe they will be in the
26:11
Speaker 1: ACC Championship. I don't know why they're below pit here
26:14
Speaker 1: in the tiebreaker or whatever, but I believe that is
26:16
Speaker 1: the case. You can correct me if I'm wrong about that.
26:19
Speaker 1: It's also gonna be the first time they're having to
26:21
Speaker 1: travel to the Pacific coast, so I don't know if
26:24
Speaker 1: we like that, either man the last time SMU left
26:28
Speaker 1: or the last time SMU played on the road. Well,
26:30
Speaker 1: SMU is in the Central times on I was gonna
26:32
Speaker 1: say the last time they played in the Central time zone.
26:34
Speaker 1: But they haven't been good in the Central time zone
26:36
Speaker 1: on the road, let's just put it that way. Losing
26:39
Speaker 1: outright to TCU and not covering against Missouri State and
26:43
Speaker 1: that was a win for us on the show there.
26:45
Speaker 1: So for whatever reason, SMU, they haven't done well on
26:48
Speaker 1: the road in the Central times zone. They haven't done
26:51
Speaker 1: well on the road generally. Actually, they lost to Wake
26:53
Speaker 1: on the road as well, so all of SMU's losses
26:57
Speaker 1: have come on the road. Now they're going to the
26:58
Speaker 1: Pacific Coast to the first time this year, and they're
27:00
Speaker 1: playing a late night game, which might mess with their
27:03
Speaker 1: biological clock a little bit. Cal, I mean, I expect
27:07
Speaker 1: them to show up because it is senior day for them,
27:09
Speaker 1: Senior night, so I do think they'll show up. They're
27:11
Speaker 1: coming off an ugly loss so that that was in
27:14
Speaker 1: their big rivalry against Stanford, So I don't know. Maybe
27:19
Speaker 1: I would worry a little bit about Cal being hungover
27:21
Speaker 1: after that coming into this game, but I think that
27:23
Speaker 1: was kind of the hangover spot because Cal had beaten
27:26
Speaker 1: Louisville the week before then, and then they had to
27:28
Speaker 1: travel back to the Pacific Coast after that, and the
27:31
Speaker 1: Louisville game made Cal Bowl eligible as well, so there
27:35
Speaker 1: was kind of a letdown component there against Stanford as well,
27:37
Speaker 1: which as you remember, I did say that I leaned
27:41
Speaker 1: to Stanford in that game, although didn't give it out
27:43
Speaker 1: as a play, and it was an easy winner. I
27:44
Speaker 1: think SOB might have had that one, and I agreed
27:47
Speaker 1: with it. But now Cal is on the Pacific coast
27:50
Speaker 1: now because they obviously they came back home they played
27:53
Speaker 1: at Stanford, so their travel is a lot less from
27:56
Speaker 1: last week to this week now, so that is not
27:58
Speaker 1: bad for them. And you're gonna be asking SMU to
28:01
Speaker 1: lay a lot of points here. So I would take
28:04
Speaker 1: the points with Cal if I was gonna play this.
28:06
Speaker 1: SMU is a thirteen a half point favorite, seventy seven
28:08
Speaker 1: percent of ticket, sixty six percent of the cash on them. Yeah,
28:12
Speaker 1: so they're public with less of the money on them.
28:14
Speaker 1: I think taking the points does make sense in that one,
28:17
Speaker 1: but not my strongest. And then we do have on
28:20
Speaker 1: ESPN at ten to thirty pm Eastern. You want to
28:23
Speaker 1: talk about a late night game, Notre Dame is having
28:26
Speaker 1: to go play really really late night at Stanford. I
28:30
Speaker 1: do worry about that. Again, Notre Dame Pacific Coast. I
28:35
Speaker 1: was gonna say, I thought they did it this year,
28:37
Speaker 1: but they didn't. They played USC at home this year,
28:39
Speaker 1: so Notre Dame has not gone to the Pacific Coast
28:42
Speaker 1: this year, so that might be a little bit dangerous
28:44
Speaker 1: for them. And they're coming off a seventy to seven
28:48
Speaker 1: win against Syracuse, which is really just unbelievable. So they
28:54
Speaker 1: do need style points because Notre Dame is not any conference,
28:57
Speaker 1: so they got to win and win big to make
28:59
Speaker 1: sure they get into the playoff, which at this point
29:01
Speaker 1: I think they definitely will. But I mean, they can't
29:05
Speaker 1: lose to Stanford, though. They got to at least win
29:07
Speaker 1: this game. But will they need will they be will
29:09
Speaker 1: they be motivated to win this by a giant margin
29:12
Speaker 1: and cover this huge number? I'm not so sure about that.
29:15
Speaker 1: And I mean, winning seventy to seven, you're gonna be
29:18
Speaker 1: really really I think over valued coming into this final
29:21
Speaker 1: week for Stanford. This is their last game, this is
29:25
Speaker 1: senior night. They might want to go out with a
29:27
Speaker 1: nice win, although they are coming off a big win
29:29
Speaker 1: in their rivalry against Cals, so I don't know if
29:31
Speaker 1: they'll be in a let down here though, because this
29:33
Speaker 1: is also a rivalry game, and again it is their
29:35
Speaker 1: final game senior day. It's Notre Dame coming in, so
29:38
Speaker 1: they might want to come in and try to avoid
29:41
Speaker 1: embarrassment here and actually play. Okay, you're asking Notre Dame
29:44
Speaker 1: to cover a thirty two and a half point spread here.
29:48
Speaker 1: I don't know what this six and a half was.
29:49
Speaker 1: That's obviously wrong. Thirty two and a half being the
29:52
Speaker 1: number though, was just crazy, crazy high for Notre Dame
29:56
Speaker 1: on the road. I mean, that's insane. I know Notre
29:58
Speaker 1: Dame is like legitimately a top five team though, and
30:02
Speaker 1: Stanford is pretty ass, but uh, thirty two is a
30:06
Speaker 1: ridiculously high number. And I think the fact that Notre
30:09
Speaker 1: Dame kind of needs style points is built into that number.
30:12
Speaker 1: And I think it's also skewed because of what we
30:14
Speaker 1: saw last week got a Notre Dame. I would probably
30:16
Speaker 1: take the points with Stanford if I was gonna do this,
30:19
Speaker 1: Plus the total is crazy low for a thirty two
30:22
Speaker 1: and a half points spread. I mean the totals forty
30:25
Speaker 1: nine and a half. So it's like, if Stanford scores
30:28
Speaker 1: like ten points in this game, they'll probably cover. Although
30:31
Speaker 1: I know Notre Dame is a really good defense eighty
30:34
Speaker 1: two percent tickets, ninety percent of the cash and Notre Dame. Yeah,
30:37
Speaker 1: I would take the points. It seems like there's a
30:39
Speaker 1: lot of value in getting thirty two and a half points.
30:43
Speaker 1: Maybe the spread is I mean, what is that The
30:45
Speaker 1: spread is like like well over sixty percent of its total.
30:49
Speaker 1: I mean that's insane, Like you almost never see that.
30:53
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would take the points there in that one,
30:57
Speaker 1: although that is not on my card. All right, now,
31:01
Speaker 1: we can talk about the rest of these games here,
31:03
Speaker 1: and I do have two plays. I mean, I don't
31:04
Speaker 1: know if I'm considering giving out another one here. I
31:08
Speaker 1: like Virginia Tech a lot. That one is close. We
31:11
Speaker 1: got Kentucky and Louisville in this Kentucky rivalry. Here. Louisville
31:15
Speaker 1: they're going to a bowl, but they've looked like a
31:18
Speaker 1: dead team. Man Like. Basically, I liked SMU last week
31:21
Speaker 1: because SMU still had something to play for, like trying
31:24
Speaker 1: to make the ACC title game, whereas Louisville. They were
31:27
Speaker 1: pretty much dead after they lost to Clemson, and they
31:29
Speaker 1: looked dead last week, but now they are back home
31:32
Speaker 1: and they did get embarrassed last week. So is Louisville
31:36
Speaker 1: gonna still be that dead team here where they actually
31:38
Speaker 1: gonna show up here to not get embarrassed on Senior
31:41
Speaker 1: Night and it is a rivalry game here, I don't know.
31:46
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm kind of thinking they might show up.
31:48
Speaker 1: But Kentucky the any wan more win to become Bowl eligible, man,
31:52
Speaker 1: and they had an ugly performance last week, and I
31:54
Speaker 1: expect them to show up against Louisville. So and Kentucky
31:58
Speaker 1: does play pretty good deepen, so you're gonna be getting
32:00
Speaker 1: some points with them, So I probably do lean to
32:03
Speaker 1: the Kentucky side. Louisville's down from four and a half
32:06
Speaker 1: to two and a half, but I think some of
32:07
Speaker 1: that has to do with a quarterback situation with Louisville,
32:10
Speaker 1: and that is another question that I haven't gotten an
32:13
Speaker 1: answer to, So I don't really want to get involved here.
32:15
Speaker 1: But sixty nine percent taken seventy two percent of the
32:18
Speaker 1: cash on Kentucky. The total dropped a little bit to
32:20
Speaker 1: forty six and a half so taking the points worth
32:23
Speaker 1: a little bit more. Here again at the Kentucky, the
32:27
Speaker 1: motivation to try to get to that six win, I
32:29
Speaker 1: think is there. Kentucky was not in a bowl last year,
32:32
Speaker 1: so I think that is a pretty big motivator for Kentucky.
32:34
Speaker 1: They want to get back to a bowl. So I
32:37
Speaker 1: think that side does make sense. For Louisville, you got
32:40
Speaker 1: to see what's happening with Miller Moss, their quarterback man,
32:43
Speaker 1: because he got hurt and he did not play last week,
32:46
Speaker 1: and they're whoever their quarterback was last week didn't do well.
32:50
Speaker 1: It was Deuce Adams, and then it looks like they
32:53
Speaker 1: might have taken him out. Uh maybe because it was
32:55
Speaker 1: a blowout and they decided to try Brady Allen, which
33:00
Speaker 1: he was only in for a little while. Though. I mean,
33:02
Speaker 1: they didn't really get much out of their passing attack
33:04
Speaker 1: at all in the game, just generally, so I don't
33:08
Speaker 1: know what you're gonna get out of those guys this time.
33:10
Speaker 1: It looks like Deuce Adams does run the football a
33:12
Speaker 1: little bit as well, so he's got a little bit
33:14
Speaker 1: of a dual threat component. To me, because the line
33:17
Speaker 1: is at two and a half, it seems like it's
33:19
Speaker 1: gonna be Adams again, because I mean Louisville. They can't
33:22
Speaker 1: get into the a SEC Championship or anything like that now,
33:24
Speaker 1: so I don't think they really have any reason of
33:27
Speaker 1: play Miller Moss here except well, I don't know, man,
33:30
Speaker 1: because it is senior day and he is a senior,
33:33
Speaker 1: so I believe so maybe that would be like the
33:36
Speaker 1: one thing where maybe they'll bring him back for that,
33:38
Speaker 1: but the number seems to indicate they're not doing it,
33:40
Speaker 1: so that is something to be aware of in this game.
33:43
Speaker 1: If he does come back, you'll probably get more live
33:46
Speaker 1: value taking the points of Kentucky. Though. Yeah, he is
33:49
Speaker 1: a senior, so maybe it would be a spot where
33:52
Speaker 1: they would play him if he was healthy, But I
33:54
Speaker 1: don't know. I think again, if he is gonna play,
33:57
Speaker 1: I think the line would be closer to that four
33:58
Speaker 1: that we saw at the Open. We do have Clemson
34:02
Speaker 1: in South Carolina. These all still noontime games here, big
34:06
Speaker 1: South Carolina rivalry. South Carolina got the win at Clemson
34:10
Speaker 1: last year, but is that gonna be enough to motivate
34:12
Speaker 1: Clemson here, man, I'm not so sure, because yes, it
34:15
Speaker 1: is a revenge game because Clemson did lose this game
34:18
Speaker 1: last year, and I believe Clemson was already in the
34:21
Speaker 1: ACC Championship game last year, so they kind of overlooked
34:25
Speaker 1: I think South Carolina last year a little bit, although
34:27
Speaker 1: it was a close game and Clemson kind of blew
34:29
Speaker 1: it at the end. But for Clemson their bowl eligible again.
34:32
Speaker 1: But I just don't think they care, man. I mean,
34:35
Speaker 1: they're they had championship ass rations this year and they're
34:38
Speaker 1: sitting at six and five and they're gonna be headed
34:41
Speaker 1: headed to some really crappy bowl that you're probably gonna
34:44
Speaker 1: want to fade Clemson whatever bowl they're in, because they're
34:47
Speaker 1: probably not gonna show up. But the I mean, we'll
34:50
Speaker 1: talk about it when we get to bowls season. But
34:52
Speaker 1: then the issue becomes like when all these guys opt
34:55
Speaker 1: out than the players that actually get to player players
34:57
Speaker 1: that don't usually get to play, and they actually will
34:59
Speaker 1: be excited to place, then you have to kind of
35:01
Speaker 1: you have to weigh that against like what the drop
35:05
Speaker 1: off in skill is, you know what I mean? Because
35:07
Speaker 1: the backups that they get to play, they will be motivated.
35:10
Speaker 1: So it's bowl season is very hard to handicap men,
35:13
Speaker 1: Whereas it used to be way more straightforward it was like, Oh,
35:16
Speaker 1: Clemson is still gonna play most of their guys and
35:18
Speaker 1: they're just gonna be a you know, a defeated team.
35:22
Speaker 1: But I don't know. But for Clemson in this game,
35:24
Speaker 1: I mean, they've still been playing with motivation though, man.
35:28
Speaker 1: I mean they've won three games in a row, including
35:30
Speaker 1: beating Florida State and Louis Vall. Though you could argue
35:33
Speaker 1: they were just trying to get that six win for
35:35
Speaker 1: Bowl eligible toy and they got that last week against
35:37
Speaker 1: an onn FBS team Firm, and now they're going out
35:42
Speaker 1: on the road again. For South Carolina, this is their
35:45
Speaker 1: last game. They're not going to a bowl this year.
35:47
Speaker 1: They're not going bowling, and they beat us last week.
35:50
Speaker 1: I just thought they wouldn't have motivation in that game
35:52
Speaker 1: against Coastal, especially coming off how they lost that game
35:55
Speaker 1: to A and M blowing a thirty to three lead.
35:58
Speaker 1: I can't believe South Carolina showed up and just annihilated
36:02
Speaker 1: Coastal like that, even though Coastal does suck, but still
36:06
Speaker 1: that actually kind of shows you that South Carolina actually
36:08
Speaker 1: is still trying to play, and since this is Senior
36:11
Speaker 1: Day and it is gonna be their final game, I
36:14
Speaker 1: kind of lean that way. Clemson. I mean, they will
36:16
Speaker 1: be going to a bowl at least, so this won't
36:20
Speaker 1: be the last time they play. The money is coming
36:21
Speaker 1: into South Carolina fifty ticket seventy six percent of the
36:25
Speaker 1: cash and them they're up to a two and a
36:26
Speaker 1: half point favorite if you do like them. I wouldn't
36:29
Speaker 1: really want to let that get to three, though, because
36:31
Speaker 1: that is a key number, and in a game with
36:33
Speaker 1: a low total forty six and a half, you could
36:34
Speaker 1: see this game might be a close game, man, So
36:37
Speaker 1: those points are they may matter. And South Carolina has
36:43
Speaker 1: been pretty challenged offensively as well. Houston Baylor is actually
36:48
Speaker 1: gonna be one of my plays, So I'm gonna stay
36:50
Speaker 1: off of that for now. Colorado at Kansas State. Now,
36:53
Speaker 1: for Kansas State, the way they lost last week was
36:57
Speaker 1: absolutely brutal, dude. They went into Utah and they went
37:00
Speaker 1: all out. Kansas State has eighteen and a half point
37:03
Speaker 1: underdogs in high elevation. Kansas State played their guts out, dude,
37:07
Speaker 1: and they were winning this game forty seven to thirty five.
37:11
Speaker 1: With seven minutes left in the game, Kansas State scored
37:13
Speaker 1: a touchdown and they were They decided to go for
37:16
Speaker 1: two because that would have put them up fourteen. So
37:20
Speaker 1: it makes sense. The decision makes sense. And then what happened,
37:23
Speaker 1: the two point conversion was run back the other way
37:28
Speaker 1: for a two point conversion by Utah, which cut it
37:30
Speaker 1: to ten, and then that basically gave Utah all this
37:33
Speaker 1: momentum and then they wound up scoring two more touchdowns
37:36
Speaker 1: and winning the game unbelievably, like unbelievable loss for Kansas State.
37:41
Speaker 1: There they had that game in their grasp and now
37:43
Speaker 1: they're coming off of that. They could be a pretty
37:46
Speaker 1: defeated team here, man, I mean, I don't know how
37:49
Speaker 1: they get back up off the mat after that, except well,
37:52
Speaker 1: I mean the answer how is that It is senior
37:55
Speaker 1: Day for them and they are still looking for a
37:57
Speaker 1: sixth win. But do they care about going into some
38:00
Speaker 1: crappy bowl? I don't know, man, because this team, I
38:04
Speaker 1: mean Kansas State, they expected to be in the mix
38:06
Speaker 1: for the Big twelve title this year and they're not
38:07
Speaker 1: even gonna come close to that. So do they care
38:10
Speaker 1: about getting that six win and becoming Bowl eligibly? I mean,
38:12
Speaker 1: maybe to save themselves from embarrassment again? It is their
38:17
Speaker 1: final home game. They are a big favorite, though, so
38:19
Speaker 1: I don't really think they're gonna lose the game, but
38:22
Speaker 1: I would probably take the points with Colorado here that
38:25
Speaker 1: we got. I don't know what we're talking about here
38:28
Speaker 1: with Julian Lewis, I don't really know who that is
38:30
Speaker 1: the Colorado I mean, they've had a lost season. This
38:33
Speaker 1: is gonna be their last game of the year. They
38:35
Speaker 1: got embarrassed in their senior day last week against Arizona State,
38:38
Speaker 1: so I don't know. I kind of think they're gonna
38:42
Speaker 1: show up here, but then we have I don't know
38:43
Speaker 1: what's going on with all these coaching things that are
38:46
Speaker 1: already happening. Man Marshall fawkn remember him from the Rams
38:51
Speaker 1: and the Colts, I believe the NFL running back He
38:54
Speaker 1: was the running backs coach for Colorado, and I guess
38:57
Speaker 1: he is now taking a head coach job at Southern
39:00
Speaker 1: You so he's gonna be going out of FBS, but
39:04
Speaker 1: he's gonna get to head coach, So I don't know.
39:07
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's really gonna matter coming into
39:09
Speaker 1: this game, though, But again, I do think Kansas State
39:12
Speaker 1: is gonna struggle to get back up off the mat
39:14
Speaker 1: after they went all out. They did they basically decided
39:17
Speaker 1: to make that game against Utah. They're like bowl game, dude,
39:20
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I don't think they'll lose outright,
39:24
Speaker 1: but I don't know if they're gonna cover this. I
39:26
Speaker 1: would take the points with Colorado seventy eight percent of tickets,
39:29
Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on Kansas State. They're
39:32
Speaker 1: seventeen point favorite, so you you will get a lot
39:35
Speaker 1: of points with Colorado here and Kansas State, I mean,
39:39
Speaker 1: I don't know how often have they covered a number
39:41
Speaker 1: like that this season. I don't know. Their wins are
39:43
Speaker 1: by three against North Dakota, really really ugly. They're not
39:46
Speaker 1: even an FBS team. They beat UCF by fourteen, TCU
39:50
Speaker 1: by thirteen. The one blowout win was against Kansas Kansas
39:55
Speaker 1: surprisingly on the road at Kansas that was the one
39:58
Speaker 1: blowout win. And then they barely beat Oklahoma State by eight.
40:02
Speaker 1: So Kansas State has not really shown the ability to
40:04
Speaker 1: cover these big numbers either. So that's probably what I
40:07
Speaker 1: would do there. I will talk about the games that
40:10
Speaker 1: have like the conference championship implications here. Whoop, I thought
40:15
Speaker 1: I just removed myself from the stream. Oops, No, I
40:19
Speaker 1: did not, All right, Toledo in Central Michigan. This is
40:22
Speaker 1: a really weird interesting scenario here where in the MAC,
40:28
Speaker 1: Western Michigan is already in the MAC Championship because they're
40:32
Speaker 1: a one loss team in conference. So Western Michigan is
40:34
Speaker 1: already in the MAC Championship. But oddly, I think Ohio
40:39
Speaker 1: and Toledo I actually think are both better teams in
40:41
Speaker 1: Western Michigan. But Ohio is actually eliminated even though they're
40:46
Speaker 1: sitting at six and two, they don't have the tiebreaker
40:49
Speaker 1: over Toledo or Central Michigan. So Toledo and Central Michigan
40:53
Speaker 1: are playing each other in whichever team wins is gonna
40:55
Speaker 1: be six and two, and they would have the tiebreaker
40:58
Speaker 1: over Ohio. But they also I believe, need Miami Ohio
41:02
Speaker 1: to lose because I think Miami Ohio actually has the
41:04
Speaker 1: tiebreaker maybe over both of them. It's an insane scenario
41:08
Speaker 1: in the MAC. Dude, Ohio, Ohio is sitting at second
41:11
Speaker 1: place right now, but they literally cannot make the title game.
41:14
Speaker 1: So and they already played this week, I believe, right,
41:16
Speaker 1: they played today, Yeah, Ohio, they beat Buffalo today and
41:20
Speaker 1: it didn't even matter. So yeah, they got the win
41:22
Speaker 1: against Buffalo, but they still can't make the title game,
41:25
Speaker 1: and that's because Kent State won against Northern Illinois. I
41:30
Speaker 1: don't know why that was the reason why, but it was.
41:33
Speaker 1: It doesn't make any sense to me why Kent State
41:35
Speaker 1: winning today made the difference. And I'm still shocked that
41:39
Speaker 1: Kent State won five games this year because they are
41:43
Speaker 1: absolutely terrible. But all that aside Toledo versus Central Michigan.
41:48
Speaker 1: Both these teams are in a situation where they need
41:50
Speaker 1: to win this game, but they also need help basically
41:53
Speaker 1: in that I believe they both need Miami, Ohio to lose.
41:57
Speaker 1: I think that is the scenario here. So neither of
41:59
Speaker 1: these seems control their own destiny. So both teams are
42:03
Speaker 1: in a spot where I think they're both gonna show
42:05
Speaker 1: up like pretty big time here. The game is at
42:07
Speaker 1: Central Michigan, so it is senior Day for them, But
42:09
Speaker 1: I mean, both teams have a lot of motivation anyway
42:12
Speaker 1: if their goal is to win the MAC, and I
42:14
Speaker 1: think it probably is Central Michigan. Yep, they're at home
42:18
Speaker 1: final home game. Sure, they just beat Kent State in
42:22
Speaker 1: their last game, and they do have extra time off,
42:24
Speaker 1: but I don't know if that extra time off is
42:26
Speaker 1: gonna be helpful. They played last Wednesday. Don't know if
42:29
Speaker 1: that's helpful though, because they went into that extra rest
42:32
Speaker 1: on a good note, so sometimes that will hurt your momentum.
42:35
Speaker 1: For Toledo. They played last Saturday, but I think that's
42:38
Speaker 1: fine because they're just continuing their momentum. And the odds
42:43
Speaker 1: are gonna look really really bizarre in this game. And
42:45
Speaker 1: I mean, both teams are seven and four, they're both
42:48
Speaker 1: five and two in the MAC. Yet the odds makers
42:50
Speaker 1: have put this line up with Toledo on the road,
42:53
Speaker 1: they're a double digit favorite. I mean that just looks insane,
42:57
Speaker 1: Like how could you have a road team being adult
43:00
Speaker 1: digit favorite when the records are the same. The oddsmakers
43:03
Speaker 1: are telling you that Toledo is the better team, and
43:05
Speaker 1: I've been saying that all year. They did have at
43:08
Speaker 1: least one like kind of bizarre loss as a road favorite,
43:12
Speaker 1: a two actually against Western Michigan and Bowling Green, and
43:15
Speaker 1: I actually think they were technically a favorite against Washington
43:18
Speaker 1: State two on the road. I think they were like
43:19
Speaker 1: a one point favorite. So Toledo's actually lost three times
43:23
Speaker 1: as a road favorite, although maybe that's bad because they're
43:26
Speaker 1: a road favorite here and they have not performed well
43:29
Speaker 1: as a road favorite, but if I was gonna play
43:31
Speaker 1: this game, I would still lay it like they're the
43:33
Speaker 1: better team over Central Michigan. Man. In Central Michigan, they
43:37
Speaker 1: really struggle offensively and Toledo has a much much better offense.
43:42
Speaker 1: As far as the defense, I don't know. I don't
43:46
Speaker 1: even know if Toledo has a worse defense at Central Michigan.
43:49
Speaker 1: I just know their offense is way better. But lame
43:53
Speaker 1: points looks a little bit iffy with a total pretty
43:55
Speaker 1: low forty five and a half. But the public is
43:58
Speaker 1: coming in on a Central Michigan man again and it
44:00
Speaker 1: looks like a very misleading line. It's up from nine
44:02
Speaker 1: and a half to now eleven. So if you like Toledo,
44:05
Speaker 1: I mean you missed out on the key number there
44:07
Speaker 1: because it got through to en So that's not great.
44:11
Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent of tickets only sixty percent of the
44:13
Speaker 1: ash on Central Michigan though, so public percentage looks like
44:18
Speaker 1: it's on Central Michigan. They're less of the money on them.
44:22
Speaker 1: I think Toledo wins the game. I would probably lean
44:25
Speaker 1: towards Toledo covering as well, but for that to happen
44:30
Speaker 1: you're gonna need Central. Michigan really be held off the
44:32
Speaker 1: board quite a bit at home, so we will see
44:36
Speaker 1: if that actually happens. And then Miami Ohio against ball
44:39
Speaker 1: State Miami Ohio, I believe they're in a situation where
44:44
Speaker 1: if they win, they're in I think I think if
44:48
Speaker 1: Miami Ohio wins, I believe they have the tiebreaker over
44:51
Speaker 1: I know they have the tiebreaker overall over Ohio, but
44:54
Speaker 1: because Ohio is eliminated, I looked it up, but I
44:57
Speaker 1: believe they also have the tiebreaker against Toledo and Central,
45:00
Speaker 1: which is crazy, but that means Miami Ohio basically controls
45:05
Speaker 1: their own destiny. Yes, they're at home and it's senior Day,
45:09
Speaker 1: but and they're they're playing a really, really bad ball
45:12
Speaker 1: state team. But the thing is Miami Ohio in a
45:16
Speaker 1: situation where they control their own destiny, and they don't
45:18
Speaker 1: need style points either. And it's a low total of
45:20
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. Their offense is kind of questionable.
45:23
Speaker 1: I don't think I would want to lay the points man.
45:25
Speaker 1: Seventeen and a half is the number. Seventy nine percent
45:28
Speaker 1: of tickets, only seventy three percent of the cash on
45:30
Speaker 1: Miami Ohio. I expect them to win the game, but
45:33
Speaker 1: I would take the points with ball State if I
45:35
Speaker 1: was going to play it. And for ball State, this
45:38
Speaker 1: will be their last game. They're not going to a bowl. Miami,
45:42
Speaker 1: Ohio already is Bowl eligible. Toledo and Central Michigan both
45:46
Speaker 1: are as well. But still those teams are all trying
45:49
Speaker 1: to get to the MAC title game, so we will
45:51
Speaker 1: see what happens. But again, team that controls their own
45:54
Speaker 1: destiny laying extra points basically because of that, you know,
45:57
Speaker 1: I don't like that. And then Delaware, I mean, they
46:03
Speaker 1: could become Bowl eligible in their first season and they
46:07
Speaker 1: just wrecked us last week. Man, I was shocked that
46:10
Speaker 1: they were that bad against Wake last week. Wake thirty
46:13
Speaker 1: five points in the first half, and that's a team
46:15
Speaker 1: that doesn't even score well, I don't know what that was.
46:18
Speaker 1: Delaware had two shots to become Bowl eligible, although it's
46:23
Speaker 1: their first season in FBS, so they're in transition. But
46:26
Speaker 1: if they get to six wins, they can petition the
46:28
Speaker 1: NCAA and if there aren't enough bull spots they can
46:30
Speaker 1: still get in. But they got to get that six
46:32
Speaker 1: win and they blew it against Sam Houston. That was
46:35
Speaker 1: their shot to do it. I mean, they could do
46:38
Speaker 1: it here. They're a favorite at home on Senior Night.
46:41
Speaker 1: But I think the pressure is kind of on Delaware
46:43
Speaker 1: now because they want to get that six win. It
46:45
Speaker 1: would mean a lot in their first season here. For UTEP,
46:49
Speaker 1: I mean they're not going anywhere though, does UTEP really care?
46:52
Speaker 1: Like they're having to go all the way to Delaware.
46:54
Speaker 1: UTEP is in El Paso and now they're gonna go
46:56
Speaker 1: all the way to the East Coast, which by the way,
46:58
Speaker 1: they have not done this year. They have to go
47:01
Speaker 1: to the Eastern time zone for an afternoon game, So
47:03
Speaker 1: I don't really love that for UTEP, And like, where's
47:06
Speaker 1: their motivation gonna come from? I don't know, because this
47:08
Speaker 1: isn't really a rivalry game. Although the money seems to
47:12
Speaker 1: be coming in on UTUB, I think maybe just fading
47:14
Speaker 1: Delaware because Delaware has all the pressure on them to
47:18
Speaker 1: try to get the sixth win. Delaware down from five
47:20
Speaker 1: to four, eighty three percent of tickets on the fifty
47:22
Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on UTEP. I'm not gonna
47:25
Speaker 1: disagree with that, but I mean I don't want to
47:27
Speaker 1: touch that game at all. FIU is at Sam Houston
47:31
Speaker 1: and FIU. They just got their six win and they
47:34
Speaker 1: beat Jacksonville State. That was a huge win, man, because
47:37
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State was undefeated in Conference USA and they're in
47:42
Speaker 1: a position where they are, you know, they're in a
47:45
Speaker 1: decent position to still make the Conference USA championship game.
47:48
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is Florida International. They did just pull off
47:51
Speaker 1: that big win over them. They beat Liberty the week
47:53
Speaker 1: before that too, So two huge wins at home. The
47:57
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State went I was correct about that by the way,
47:59
Speaker 1: I gave that out as a lean last week. Maybe
48:01
Speaker 1: I should have made it a play. I don't know.
48:04
Speaker 1: But they got the win. So their six win, that
48:06
Speaker 1: was their senior day, So FU they pretty much accomplished
48:09
Speaker 1: their goal. Man, they're gonna be bowl eligible. They're going
48:12
Speaker 1: to a bowl. This team hasn't been to a ball
48:14
Speaker 1: I think for years, Like I don't think they've been
48:16
Speaker 1: in a bowl since like twenty nineteen. So it is
48:19
Speaker 1: big for FVIU to be in a bawl. Man. So
48:23
Speaker 1: I don't know how much motivation they're gonna have to
48:25
Speaker 1: go on the road and beat Sam Houston though. Man,
48:27
Speaker 1: for Sam Houston, they're not going to a ball which
48:31
Speaker 1: is probably disappointing because they actually were in a ball
48:34
Speaker 1: last year and had a much better season last year.
48:36
Speaker 1: They're coming up an ugly loss in Middle Tennessee and
48:38
Speaker 1: now they're gonna be at home in Senior Day as
48:41
Speaker 1: an underdog. Mean, this is gonna be their last game
48:43
Speaker 1: of the season. You know. They showed some signs of
48:46
Speaker 1: life last couple of weeks. They beat Oregon State, they
48:48
Speaker 1: got the monkey off their back, finally got a win.
48:51
Speaker 1: They beat Delaware in an upset. So they pulled off
48:54
Speaker 1: a couple of pretty big upsets, you know, and if
48:57
Speaker 1: you take the points, you don't need them to win
48:59
Speaker 1: the game here. I would probably take the points with
49:01
Speaker 1: Sam Houston. The money's coming into an FIU, which I
49:04
Speaker 1: don't really understand. They're up to an eleven point favorite,
49:06
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash.
49:09
Speaker 1: I mean, it might just be numbers guys who are
49:11
Speaker 1: basically just saying, yeah, Sam Houston sucks, so we're gonna
49:15
Speaker 1: lay the points here, and that maybe that number is
49:17
Speaker 1: slightly too low on FIU. But I don't know, Man, Again,
49:20
Speaker 1: I fi you, I just don't see where the motivation
49:22
Speaker 1: comes from. Because they will be going to a bowl,
49:24
Speaker 1: so they might already be looking ahead to that, so
49:27
Speaker 1: they don't really have anything to gain by winning this game.
49:29
Speaker 1: So I would take the points with Sam Houston. All Right,
49:36
Speaker 1: we have a Georgia Southern and Marshall, and I believe
49:39
Speaker 1: these two teams are both sitting at five wins. So
49:42
Speaker 1: this is about bowl eligibility. These teams can't make the
49:45
Speaker 1: Sunbell Championship or anything like that, but I think it
49:48
Speaker 1: matters more to Marshall because Marshall, if you remember last year,
49:50
Speaker 1: they had a good season, they won ten games, and
49:53
Speaker 1: then their entire team just quit. Their entire team left
49:58
Speaker 1: and they couldn't even feel the team the Bulls, so
50:00
Speaker 1: they had to back out of the bowl. Some other
50:03
Speaker 1: team went in and took Southern Wait, who was it.
50:05
Speaker 1: I forget who it was that took their Some team
50:08
Speaker 1: came in and took their bull spot. I forget who
50:10
Speaker 1: it was. But Marshall, this program is supposed to be
50:14
Speaker 1: awful this year because the entire team left and became
50:17
Speaker 1: Southern Miss. They all went to Southern Miss. So this
50:19
Speaker 1: Marshall team was a complete rebuild this year and they
50:22
Speaker 1: were expected to suck. And now if they win their
50:25
Speaker 1: final home game, and I believe their favorite, they actually
50:28
Speaker 1: will be Bowl eligible, which I think is big for
50:31
Speaker 1: marshall Man because of the way that last season ended
50:33
Speaker 1: and the whole team left and bailed. I think this
50:36
Speaker 1: new Marshall team is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Man. Yeah,
50:39
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern, I mean they'd like to get to a
50:41
Speaker 1: Bowl again, but I think they'd bend to bulls the
50:43
Speaker 1: last few years. I know they got embarrassed in their
50:45
Speaker 1: senior day against ODU Old Dominions, so maybe they will
50:48
Speaker 1: show up for this. But I like Marshall in this
50:51
Speaker 1: one of the the money seems to agree with. Maybe
50:54
Speaker 1: they're already up to a ten point favorite when you
50:56
Speaker 1: could have laid seven earlier to take It's ninety nine
51:00
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, so this looks like
51:02
Speaker 1: a game where it's just professional money just hitting marshall Man,
51:07
Speaker 1: and I don't disagree with it. But they also are
51:09
Speaker 1: not gonna need to win by margin here either, so
51:12
Speaker 1: but it's a high total of sixty four so makes
51:15
Speaker 1: it a little bit easier for a team to cover
51:18
Speaker 1: as a favorite like that. We'll see Western Kentucky and
51:22
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State This is kind of a weird scenario. I mean,
51:25
Speaker 1: both of these teams are in the mix for the
51:27
Speaker 1: Conference USA Championship, and so is KENSA. So it's gonna
51:32
Speaker 1: be some combination of Jacksonville State, Kanessas State in Western Kentucky, Kennesaw.
51:37
Speaker 1: I believe there is no scenario where they can host
51:40
Speaker 1: the Conference USA Championship and they can get into it.
51:42
Speaker 1: Missouri State cannot and that's only because they are in
51:48
Speaker 1: transition period, so they're not allowed to play in the
51:50
Speaker 1: They're not allowed to play in the Conference Championship, but
51:52
Speaker 1: they are allowed to petition to get into a bowl
51:56
Speaker 1: with seven wins. So very strange scenario from Missouri State.
52:01
Speaker 1: But for these teams, Yeah, Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State here.
52:05
Speaker 1: Uh for Western Kentucky, I mean they played that game
52:09
Speaker 1: against LSU, and they played pretty tough last week. Man,
52:11
Speaker 1: I don't know why they scheduled LSU when they did
52:14
Speaker 1: there when you gotta have figured Western Kentucky was probably
52:17
Speaker 1: gonna be in the mix for the Conference USA because
52:19
Speaker 1: they usually are, So why did they schedule LSU? Well,
52:22
Speaker 1: the answer was they got paid a ton of money.
52:24
Speaker 1: That's why. That's why I think like the bigger program
52:29
Speaker 1: I think pays the smaller program to play them. So
52:32
Speaker 1: I think LSU paid Western Kentucky. It's under money in
52:34
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky, that's why they did it. But now they
52:38
Speaker 1: played pretty tough against LSU or LSU maybe just played
52:41
Speaker 1: poorly and just didn't score a lot. I know Western
52:44
Speaker 1: Kentucky was pretty much out of that game late though.
52:46
Speaker 1: They were down ten with like a two or less,
52:49
Speaker 1: like in the final two minutes of the game. Then
52:51
Speaker 1: they had that fumble. It's earned touchdown, but I think
52:53
Speaker 1: they knew the game was out of reach. So I
52:56
Speaker 1: don't know. Man, will they being hung over into this
52:58
Speaker 1: game from that game, I don't really know, because I mean,
53:02
Speaker 1: they do still need to win this game, Like I mean,
53:04
Speaker 1: this game matters as far as the CUSA, which is
53:07
Speaker 1: what these two teams are fighting for. Jacksonville State. They
53:11
Speaker 1: did just lose along win streak man losing to FIU.
53:13
Speaker 1: I know that's an ugly loss, but they had won
53:16
Speaker 1: five games in a row, and so imes when a
53:18
Speaker 1: team lose a win streak, they don't play well in
53:20
Speaker 1: the next game. This is at home, though, so it
53:22
Speaker 1: is senior day for them, and I don't know, maybe
53:26
Speaker 1: they have a little bit more motivation here to get
53:28
Speaker 1: this because I don't know who won the CUSA last year.
53:31
Speaker 1: I don't even remember. I don't know if Jacksonville State
53:35
Speaker 1: has won it because I think they're new to FCFBS,
53:40
Speaker 1: excuse me, as of like a few years ago. So
53:42
Speaker 1: they might play with a little bit of an extra
53:44
Speaker 1: chip on their shoulder for that reason. But the money
53:46
Speaker 1: is coming in on Western Kentucky, fifty tickets on Jacksonville State,
53:50
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash on Western Kentucky, and they're
53:53
Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite here right now.
53:56
Speaker 1: I don't know. I worry about Western Kentucky coming up
53:59
Speaker 1: the LSU game, man, So I don't know if I
54:03
Speaker 1: really agree with that. I might lean towards Jacksonville State slightly,
54:06
Speaker 1: but I don't love it at all. Then we do
54:10
Speaker 1: have them Missouri State team, which is an interesting scenario
54:12
Speaker 1: because they're already Bowl eligible and they cannot get into
54:15
Speaker 1: the CUSA Championship game because again they're in transition, so
54:20
Speaker 1: they can't do it. But will they show up anyway
54:22
Speaker 1: because this is senior night? I don't know, man, I mean,
54:26
Speaker 1: this is gonna be their first senior night as an
54:28
Speaker 1: FBS team. I believe this is their first year in FBS,
54:31
Speaker 1: so maybe that does matter. But they're coming up a
54:33
Speaker 1: big loss to Kansas State, man, I mean, they had
54:36
Speaker 1: a chance to beat one of the better teams in
54:38
Speaker 1: the conference and they lost. That ended along win stream
54:40
Speaker 1: for them, So I worry about that. But Louisiana Tech's
54:44
Speaker 1: not in a good spot either. Man. They just became
54:46
Speaker 1: Bowl eligible again, so they got their six wins, and
54:49
Speaker 1: they did it by beating Liberty, which is a huge win.
54:52
Speaker 1: So yeah for Louisiana Tech. I mean that's a yeah.
54:57
Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about it. Louisiana.
55:00
Speaker 1: I mean, they could be in a little bit of
55:01
Speaker 1: a letdown spot because beating Liberty is a big deal.
55:04
Speaker 1: So this is a tough game to figure out, man,
55:06
Speaker 1: because I don't think Missouri State really has that much
55:09
Speaker 1: to play for. They're down from three and a half
55:11
Speaker 1: to two and a half. Eighty three percent of ticket
55:14
Speaker 1: is ninety seven percent of the cash, so it looks
55:16
Speaker 1: like the money kind of is coming back on the
55:18
Speaker 1: Missouri State side. But I don't think I would agree
55:21
Speaker 1: with it, Like, I just don't understand, Like, I mean,
55:24
Speaker 1: it is Senior night yes, and maybe that's enough motivation.
55:27
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, to me, it looks like
55:29
Speaker 1: both teams are gonna lack motivation though because louisianattack again,
55:33
Speaker 1: they're bow eligible. They don't really have a rivalry or
55:35
Speaker 1: anything against Missouri State, So what's gonna motivate them to
55:38
Speaker 1: show up? And that's what I worry about. Like if
55:41
Speaker 1: you had Louisiana Tech motivated in Missouri State not motivated,
55:44
Speaker 1: I might maybe want to come in on Louisiana tack,
55:47
Speaker 1: But as far as it stands right now, I want
55:49
Speaker 1: nothing to do with it. Even though Missouri State looks
55:52
Speaker 1: like a team that you would want to fade. They
55:54
Speaker 1: both are nate. What's up? What are we? What are
56:00
Speaker 1: we talking about? Dallas? Are you? Are you a Dallas fan?
56:07
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I mean, I'm I only
56:12
Speaker 1: the only thing I'll say about it is that I
56:13
Speaker 1: did say that the Cowboys would make the playoffs before
56:16
Speaker 1: the season starts, so I want to be correct about that.
56:20
Speaker 1: But I'm not like a I'm definitely not a Dallas
56:22
Speaker 1: fan and the Stars are really fucking pissing me off.
56:27
Speaker 1: Uh that that should have been a spot where we
56:29
Speaker 1: got the win Utah was up two to nothing. I mean,
56:33
Speaker 1: you think I wanted to lose that play that I
56:34
Speaker 1: gave on in Utah? Absolutely not. That was a bad
56:38
Speaker 1: spot for Dallas. That's why I did it. We were rolling,
56:41
Speaker 1: we were up two to nothing in that game, and
56:42
Speaker 1: then all yeah, it all went to hell and the
56:46
Speaker 1: game was still tied late. Fuck the Dallas Stars, Fuck
56:49
Speaker 1: them Iowa, I mean Iowa one. I mean that that
56:54
Speaker 1: is what I predicted. I said I would would win
56:56
Speaker 1: and cover. You're a Nebraska fan, though I believe is
56:59
Speaker 1: that right? Yeah? I mean I don't know. I all
57:04
Speaker 1: I know is my opinion in that game was correct. Now,
57:07
Speaker 1: Arkansas State and app State their bull sitting at five wins,
57:11
Speaker 1: but I think this matter is more to app State, man.
57:13
Speaker 1: I mean, this is their final home game at Senior Night.
57:15
Speaker 1: But app State, you remember what happened in them last year.
57:17
Speaker 1: They had the they had the hurricane come in and
57:22
Speaker 1: they had to cancel a game, and that was basically
57:25
Speaker 1: the reason why they didn't make a bowl last year.
57:28
Speaker 1: They wound up with five wins and they didn't get
57:30
Speaker 1: that shot at home against Liberty, and they could have
57:32
Speaker 1: won that game and become Bowl eligible. But because of
57:35
Speaker 1: the hurricane and the flooding, they had to cancel it.
57:38
Speaker 1: So I think bowl eligibility matters more to app State here,
57:41
Speaker 1: so I would lean towards them. The money doesn't seem
57:44
Speaker 1: to agree, but seventy six percent tickets, ninety eight percent
57:47
Speaker 1: of the cash in Arkansas State. Arkansas State, I believe
57:50
Speaker 1: won a Bowl last year, So again, I think it
57:52
Speaker 1: matters more to app State. They're down from two to
57:55
Speaker 1: a pick them, so if you like app State, you
57:57
Speaker 1: get them at a pick them. Again, I think it
58:00
Speaker 1: matters more to them. I think there's a meaning for
58:03
Speaker 1: app State for that program to get back to a
58:05
Speaker 1: bowl this year. So that's what I would say there,
58:10
Speaker 1: down to fuck that. I hate when people say that shit,
58:13
Speaker 1: like in soccer and whatever, because oh yeah, the team
58:17
Speaker 1: it's up to gets complacent. Yeah whatever, fuck that. I'm
58:22
Speaker 1: pretty I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure I handicapped that
58:25
Speaker 1: game correctly. I'm fucking pissed. No, hell no, I'm not good.
58:31
Speaker 1: I'm not happy about this. Two fucking losing days in
58:34
Speaker 1: a row, and all my NFL reads are fucking wrong
58:37
Speaker 1: this week. No, I'm not good. What other games we
58:42
Speaker 1: have left here? I don't even what other games am
58:45
Speaker 1: I going to talk about. I mean, a lot of
58:46
Speaker 1: these games are just totally uninteresting. I'm only talking about
58:49
Speaker 1: the ones that have playoff like playoff or conference championship implications.
58:58
Speaker 1: Wake Forests may do. There is some outside chance that
59:02
Speaker 1: Duke can still get into the ACC Championship. I don't
59:05
Speaker 1: exactly know how, but that loss to Virginia made it very,
59:09
Speaker 1: very difficult. They did show up last week, which I
59:11
Speaker 1: didn't really expect, but it was a rivalry game against
59:14
Speaker 1: North Carolina they got the win. Now this is another
59:17
Speaker 1: rivalry game against Wake, and it is Duke's final home game,
59:22
Speaker 1: and yeah, I know Duke can still get in. I mean,
59:25
Speaker 1: they're in a scenario where they don't control their own destiny,
59:28
Speaker 1: I know, so they need to win and they need
59:29
Speaker 1: a lot of help. So I actually like that more
59:31
Speaker 1: because the pressure is off of them. But they might
59:33
Speaker 1: just think that realistically they just don't even have a chance.
59:37
Speaker 1: So I don't know. Man, And for Wake, I think
59:39
Speaker 1: they'll show up because Wake, I mean, they have a
59:42
Speaker 1: chance to beat both UNC and Duke, and that would
59:46
Speaker 1: be pretty big I think for Wake's program, because they're
59:48
Speaker 1: always kind of the little brother of those, so I
59:51
Speaker 1: do lean to Wake in this game. Duke's down from
59:53
Speaker 1: three to one, sixty two percent of the tickets and
59:56
Speaker 1: then fifty five percent of the cash on Wake sixty
1:00:00
Speaker 1: I think it's on Duke cash on Wake. So no,
1:00:06
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I mean I would lean to Wake
1:00:08
Speaker 1: in that game. But I do worry that maybe there's
1:00:10
Speaker 1: a reason that Duke still shows up there. So that's
1:00:13
Speaker 1: what I worry about there. It's not completely the dream
1:00:16
Speaker 1: Crusher there yet. I mean, you don't have to leave
1:00:20
Speaker 1: because you can still watch my shit. I'm just yeah,
1:00:23
Speaker 1: I'm just pissed, and I'm an asshole all the time.
1:00:25
Speaker 1: And yeah, I also get pissed when people are praising
1:00:29
Speaker 1: teams that fucking dealt me a loss, the fucking Dallas Stars.
1:00:35
Speaker 1: I still think my read was correct on that fucking game.
1:00:40
Speaker 1: What else do we have or Cincinnati TCU? Does this
1:00:43
Speaker 1: game matter? I don't fucking know. For TCU, I mean
1:00:46
Speaker 1: they're coming up a big winner for Houston last week.
1:00:50
Speaker 1: That was a big Texas rivalry game, if you want
1:00:53
Speaker 1: to call it that. Now TCU, I mean, they're already
1:00:56
Speaker 1: Bowl eligible. They are coming back home for Senior Day.
1:00:59
Speaker 1: But I don't know man, I mean that win over
1:01:01
Speaker 1: Houston was pretty big. They basically knocked Houston out of
1:01:04
Speaker 1: the Big Twelve title contention. There. Cincinnati's lost three in
1:01:10
Speaker 1: a row, and I kind of think they're gonna want
1:01:11
Speaker 1: to show up to try to get this one, even
1:01:13
Speaker 1: though they're already Bowl eligible too. I think it's more
1:01:16
Speaker 1: of a letdown spot for TCU. I mean Cincinnati, they're
1:01:20
Speaker 1: gonna be a little bit pissed, I think after losing
1:01:22
Speaker 1: their senior Day there. So I don't know, man, I
1:01:27
Speaker 1: like Cincinnati and this one. Tc used the three and
1:01:29
Speaker 1: a half way favorite fifty nine percent of tickets on them,
1:01:32
Speaker 1: only fifty three percent of the cash, so money seems
1:01:35
Speaker 1: to agree with Cincinnati. That's the way I would lean.
1:01:38
Speaker 1: No strong opinion. You're going to the Avalanche tomorrow. That
1:01:45
Speaker 1: could be like a hangover spot or some who do
1:01:47
Speaker 1: they lose to today? I don't even know. I don't
1:01:49
Speaker 1: even know what's going on. I'll handicap the game tomorrow though.
1:01:54
Speaker 1: Bad weather on Missouri State No, I mean that's that's
1:01:59
Speaker 1: a reason. Who bet the game? You should? That means
1:02:01
Speaker 1: you should bet the game over because that means that
1:02:04
Speaker 1: the total is gonna over adjust too. Low and slippery turf.
1:02:08
Speaker 1: Pretty much, slippery turf means that you're saying over as well,
1:02:14
Speaker 1: I guess right justin Yeah, I mean slippery turf means that,
1:02:17
Speaker 1: like the the defense is not gonna be able to
1:02:21
Speaker 1: like maneuver like with the offense, you know what I mean,
1:02:23
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to respond to what the
1:02:26
Speaker 1: offense is doing, if that makes sense. So what's what's
1:02:29
Speaker 1: the total in that one? Yeah, it's over adjusted down
1:02:32
Speaker 1: to forty eight and a half. So I would probably
1:02:34
Speaker 1: go over in that game might be the better way
1:02:36
Speaker 1: to go in that game because I worry about both
1:02:38
Speaker 1: teams motivation in that game. But that also means that
1:02:41
Speaker 1: both teams might not be motivated to play really strong
1:02:44
Speaker 1: defense there. So yeah, I do kind of like an
1:02:47
Speaker 1: over in that one. Although I don't really do anything
1:02:50
Speaker 1: with totals the Wild in a shootout. I'd be more
1:02:54
Speaker 1: tempted to fade the Wild after they did that, because
1:02:57
Speaker 1: I don't think the Wild are that good. Kind of
1:02:59
Speaker 1: sus and Liberty this one. Kennesaw again, they can make
1:03:06
Speaker 1: the championship game. I think they need to win and
1:03:08
Speaker 1: they need help though, because I think Kennesaw to get
1:03:12
Speaker 1: in I think they're gonna need I forget what the
1:03:15
Speaker 1: scenario is. I think they need Western Kentucky to win
1:03:18
Speaker 1: or something. I don't remember exactly what it is. But
1:03:20
Speaker 1: I don't think they control their own destiny here. They
1:03:23
Speaker 1: are having to go to Liberty. This Liberty team is
1:03:25
Speaker 1: a dead team though, I mean Liberty. They were basically
1:03:29
Speaker 1: the favorite. They were expected to win the Conference USA
1:03:32
Speaker 1: this year and they have completely plummeted and they're not
1:03:35
Speaker 1: even gonna make a bowl either. So yeah, this is
1:03:38
Speaker 1: their senior day, but like, are they really gonna be motivated?
1:03:41
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe just just because it's their last game.
1:03:43
Speaker 1: But it's not like they hate Kennisa State, who's like
1:03:46
Speaker 1: a newcomer here. So I don't really see them, you know,
1:03:49
Speaker 1: showing up because it's some sort of rivalry or anything
1:03:52
Speaker 1: like that. I think the game really only matters to Kennesaw,
1:03:56
Speaker 1: and that's probably why you see the money coming in
1:03:57
Speaker 1: on them. But that's also probably why they're a road face, right,
1:04:00
Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
1:04:02
Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't disagree with Kenna saw in
1:04:05
Speaker 1: this one man. That is probably the way that I
1:04:08
Speaker 1: would lean in that one. Do I want to play it?
1:04:11
Speaker 1: Not really? And then yeah, Missouri State, I see it
1:04:16
Speaker 1: as having gone from three and a half to two
1:04:18
Speaker 1: and a half. You're saying four and a half to
1:04:20
Speaker 1: one and a half. I mean, right here, it's uh, yeah,
1:04:24
Speaker 1: I don't know consensus three and a half to two
1:04:25
Speaker 1: and a half. But yeah, I don't want anything to
1:04:29
Speaker 1: do with the side in that game. Like pretty much
1:04:31
Speaker 1: neither team has anything to play for in that game.
1:04:34
Speaker 1: To me, it seems that way, uh except the Missouri State.
1:04:37
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess if you want to say, oh,
1:04:39
Speaker 1: they'll play for Senior Day in their first season, is
1:04:43
Speaker 1: a FBS team For Kennasa to get into a Western
1:04:50
Speaker 1: Kentucky needs to win, I think that's right, but I'm
1:04:52
Speaker 1: not one hundred percent sure of that. Troy and Southern
1:04:56
Speaker 1: Miss is a simpler scenario here. Whichever one of these
1:05:00
Speaker 1: teams wins is gonna get into the Sun Belt Championship
1:05:02
Speaker 1: to face James Madison and probably get destroyed. So yeah,
1:05:08
Speaker 1: Southern Miss Troy, they're both sitting at five and two,
1:05:10
Speaker 1: and that's because Southern Miss has dropped two straight games,
1:05:13
Speaker 1: so now they have to win this game, which is ridiculous.
1:05:17
Speaker 1: So but this is a win an in scenario for
1:05:19
Speaker 1: either for both teams. So I mean, so there isn't
1:05:23
Speaker 1: like you know, there is no like pressure on one
1:05:25
Speaker 1: side but not on the other. So this comes down
1:05:28
Speaker 1: to which team is the better team. I do believe
1:05:31
Speaker 1: it is Southern Miss. They're also at home here and
1:05:33
Speaker 1: it is their senior night, if you think that matters
1:05:36
Speaker 1: a little bit as well, Troy. I mean, they got
1:05:40
Speaker 1: an easy win last week against Georgia State. Now they're
1:05:42
Speaker 1: going out on the road. I don't think any of
1:05:44
Speaker 1: that really matters that much. But I think I would
1:05:48
Speaker 1: lean to Southern Miss in this one because they are
1:05:49
Speaker 1: the better team. The money seems to agree. They're at
1:05:51
Speaker 1: six and a half, they might hit seven here, so
1:05:54
Speaker 1: if you like them, I would try to get the
1:05:55
Speaker 1: six and a half, sixty eight percent of tickets eighty
1:05:57
Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on them. So the money
1:05:59
Speaker 1: seems to agree with that. Yeah, I think they're the
1:06:02
Speaker 1: better team and it's time that they bear down, man,
1:06:05
Speaker 1: buckle down, and do it because they're coming off two
1:06:07
Speaker 1: pretty ugly losses. Although we know Texas State is a
1:06:10
Speaker 1: lot better than non their record would indicate Florida State
1:06:14
Speaker 1: Florida is a big game, huge rivalry game for thirty
1:06:19
Speaker 1: pm on ESPN two. Florida. They can't become Bowl eligible,
1:06:23
Speaker 1: so will they show up here? Maybe because it is
1:06:26
Speaker 1: their senior day it is against Florida State. But I
1:06:29
Speaker 1: think the game means more to Florida State because we
1:06:31
Speaker 1: know they had that horrible season last year and they
1:06:33
Speaker 1: did not make a bowl. And if Florida State gets
1:06:36
Speaker 1: a win here, they will be Bowl eligible. So I
1:06:40
Speaker 1: think that actually does matter to them, whereas Florida This, Yeah,
1:06:44
Speaker 1: this is just Florida's last game, man, and that's all
1:06:47
Speaker 1: there is to it. They're not making a bowl. Florida
1:06:50
Speaker 1: State could, so I think maybe there is a little
1:06:51
Speaker 1: bit extra motivation on the Florida State side, but maybe
1:06:55
Speaker 1: that means you're paying a little bit too much of
1:06:57
Speaker 1: a price. Although in this situation is really just picked
1:06:59
Speaker 1: the winner Florida down from two to pick them in
1:07:02
Speaker 1: Florida State, that is what their motivation is gonna be
1:07:04
Speaker 1: to win. They're not gonna need to win by margin
1:07:06
Speaker 1: here to get you that win on the bet fifty
1:07:09
Speaker 1: four percent of tickets fifty eight percent of the cash
1:07:11
Speaker 1: on Florida. I would lean to Florida State in that one.
1:07:14
Speaker 1: I think becoming boeligible does matter to them. Oregon State
1:07:18
Speaker 1: Washington State, this is the Pac two rivalry were these
1:07:22
Speaker 1: two teams played twice and Washington State already lost at
1:07:26
Speaker 1: Oregon State earlier this year, which was ugly. I got
1:07:30
Speaker 1: the game right. Oregon State was a three and a
1:07:32
Speaker 1: half point underdog, and I didn't give it out as
1:07:34
Speaker 1: a play, but that was a lean for me. Now,
1:07:37
Speaker 1: Washington State, they played tough last week against JMU Man
1:07:41
Speaker 1: James Madison, fifteen and a half point underdogs in Washington
1:07:44
Speaker 1: State played well. Washington State is making a habit of
1:07:47
Speaker 1: doing this. Man. They've gone into the Eastern time zone twice. Well,
1:07:52
Speaker 1: they've gone east, if you want to say, three times
1:07:55
Speaker 1: to own Miss Virginia and JMU, and they played competitively
1:07:58
Speaker 1: every time as a digit dog and barely lost every
1:08:02
Speaker 1: one of those games. Now they're coming back. Maybe they're
1:08:07
Speaker 1: gonna be motivated still because they do need a six
1:08:09
Speaker 1: win to become Bowl eligible. That's the only thing that
1:08:11
Speaker 1: I see as far as Washington State here, because that's
1:08:14
Speaker 1: a tough loss to take man against JMU. Now they're
1:08:17
Speaker 1: flying all the way back across the country, they're playing
1:08:19
Speaker 1: an Oregon State team that they already beat on the
1:08:21
Speaker 1: road or no, excuse me, they lost. What am I saying?
1:08:23
Speaker 1: My apologies? They lost on the road, So I guess
1:08:26
Speaker 1: there is a little bit more motivation maybe on Washington
1:08:29
Speaker 1: State side, if they want to get that revenge win.
1:08:32
Speaker 1: But it's still a very difficult travel spot and coming
1:08:34
Speaker 1: off again playing a really close game is a big underdog.
1:08:37
Speaker 1: I don't love that. And for Oregon State, yeah, they're
1:08:42
Speaker 1: coming off some losses here. I know this is gonna
1:08:44
Speaker 1: be Washington State's final home game. I know they're looking
1:08:47
Speaker 1: for revenge potentially trying to become Bowl eligible. Washington State
1:08:51
Speaker 1: is also laying way too many points here, Like if
1:08:54
Speaker 1: you look at the number in this game, they're laying
1:08:57
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half of this game, Like, how is
1:08:59
Speaker 1: any impossible? Like what to the personnel change? I don't understand,
1:09:03
Speaker 1: Like they were three and a half on the road
1:09:05
Speaker 1: at Oregon State, which would basically indicate they should probably
1:09:08
Speaker 1: be like maybe like ten and a half at most
1:09:13
Speaker 1: in this game, if you really give both teams a
1:09:15
Speaker 1: lot of home field advantage. Thirteen and a half seems
1:09:18
Speaker 1: way too high, especially with a low total forty three
1:09:21
Speaker 1: and a half, sixty two percent taken seventy two percent
1:09:24
Speaker 1: of cash on Washington State. So I think I would
1:09:28
Speaker 1: take the points with Oregon State there, Maryland and Michigan State,
1:09:33
Speaker 1: I see kind of an angle here. I would probably
1:09:35
Speaker 1: fade Michigan State because they were a big seventeen and
1:09:38
Speaker 1: a half point underdog against Iowa last week and they
1:09:40
Speaker 1: played Iowa to the limit. Man, that was a big
1:09:43
Speaker 1: game for Michigan State and they fell just short. I
1:09:46
Speaker 1: don't know what they're gonna have left in the tank
1:09:47
Speaker 1: here against Maryland. This game will be in Michigan, not
1:09:51
Speaker 1: at Michigan State's campus, though it's gonna be in Detroit.
1:09:54
Speaker 1: I don't know if their fans are really gonna show
1:09:56
Speaker 1: up for it because it's been a lost season for them.
1:09:59
Speaker 1: It's been a bad season for both teams. Neither team
1:10:02
Speaker 1: is gonna go to a bowl. Maryland did lose more
1:10:05
Speaker 1: in more of a blowout fashion last week to Michigan Michigan,
1:10:09
Speaker 1: So yeah, even though the game is a semi home
1:10:12
Speaker 1: game for Michigan State, I think Michigan State kind of
1:10:16
Speaker 1: went all out in that game against Iowa, So I
1:10:18
Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna have much left. I would take
1:10:20
Speaker 1: the points with Maryland Michigan State down from four and
1:10:22
Speaker 1: a half to four, fifty percent of tickets on them,
1:10:24
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of the cash coming in on the
1:10:27
Speaker 1: Maryland side. I would take the points with Maryland in
1:10:30
Speaker 1: that game. Rice is South Florida. South Florida. I don't
1:10:36
Speaker 1: know if they can make the American Title Game or
1:10:38
Speaker 1: not at this point, because I believe Navy and nowt
1:10:42
Speaker 1: North Texas both already won, so that might eliminate South
1:10:45
Speaker 1: Florida now. So now South Florida might not really have
1:10:48
Speaker 1: a whole lot to play for anymore now, and Rice
1:10:52
Speaker 1: is playing to become Bowl eligible man which I think
1:10:54
Speaker 1: would be pretty big for them, So I would probably
1:10:57
Speaker 1: look towards Rice in this one. So Florida is a
1:11:00
Speaker 1: twenty eight point favorite, so you're getting a lot of
1:11:03
Speaker 1: points with Rice if you do like it. A nine tickets,
1:11:06
Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the cash on South Florida. So
1:11:11
Speaker 1: money looks like it's coming into South Florida for now.
1:11:14
Speaker 1: But I would probably take the points with Rice. With
1:11:17
Speaker 1: the at least they're gonna attempt to become Bowl eligible there.
1:11:22
Speaker 1: Northwestern in Illinois, this is a big I mean, this
1:11:25
Speaker 1: is a rivalry between two sort of Chicago area teams.
1:11:28
Speaker 1: These teams don't like each other. Northwestern he is already
1:11:31
Speaker 1: Bowl eligible though they got Bowl eligible last week, so
1:11:34
Speaker 1: that's pretty big from them because they think they missed
1:11:36
Speaker 1: out on the bowls last year if I remember correctly,
1:11:39
Speaker 1: so maybe they kind of accomplished their goal. Now maybe
1:11:42
Speaker 1: they don't care as much, even though I do think
1:11:44
Speaker 1: they consider themselves to be the little brother to Illinois,
1:11:47
Speaker 1: so that is what I worry about them. Maybe they
1:11:48
Speaker 1: will still show up for that reason. But for Illinois,
1:11:52
Speaker 1: they're coming off an ugly loss at Wisconsin. Illinois were
1:11:55
Speaker 1: eight and a half point favorites and they lost to
1:11:57
Speaker 1: this very bad, really struggling Wisconsin team that just can't score.
1:12:04
Speaker 1: Very ugly loss for Illinois. Now this is senior day
1:12:07
Speaker 1: for them, so I do think they're gonna want to
1:12:08
Speaker 1: bounce back from that ugly loss, even though they're not
1:12:11
Speaker 1: going anywhere this year. Money is saying Northwestern though Illinois
1:12:15
Speaker 1: down from seven to six and a half, sixty nine
1:12:16
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, sixty one percent of the
1:12:18
Speaker 1: cash on Northwestern. It is a low total, so I
1:12:21
Speaker 1: could see that argument and the argument that Northwestern is
1:12:24
Speaker 1: the little brother and we'll still want to show up there,
1:12:27
Speaker 1: but I don't know. The spot based on what happened
1:12:30
Speaker 1: last week kind of points me towards Illinois. So it's
1:12:34
Speaker 1: a difficult read in that game. Don't want anything to
1:12:36
Speaker 1: do with it though, all right, and then we have
1:12:41
Speaker 1: North Carolina and NC State. I mean this is a
1:12:44
Speaker 1: rivalry game as well. NC State's coming up a pretty
1:12:46
Speaker 1: nice win over Florida State though, so I don't know, man,
1:12:50
Speaker 1: I mean, North Carolina might want this game a little
1:12:52
Speaker 1: bit more. N C State they're already Bowl eligible and
1:12:55
Speaker 1: North Carolina is not going to a bowl. North Carolina
1:12:58
Speaker 1: they already lost to the other two North Carolina school
1:13:01
Speaker 1: so maybe they will show up with some intensity here
1:13:04
Speaker 1: in the final game to try to beat one of
1:13:07
Speaker 1: their in state rivals in NC State. NC State seven
1:13:09
Speaker 1: point favorites seventy three percent of tickets on them, but
1:13:12
Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash on u NC forty
1:13:16
Speaker 1: eight and a half is the total, so it's another
1:13:18
Speaker 1: low total. I agree with the money and that one.
1:13:20
Speaker 1: I would take the points with North Carolina again n
1:13:23
Speaker 1: C State they became Bowl eligible, though I don't know
1:13:25
Speaker 1: how much they really care about that, because there are
1:13:27
Speaker 1: they're in a bowl almost every year, but they did
1:13:30
Speaker 1: do it, and they did they did it against Florida State,
1:13:33
Speaker 1: So now UNLV Nevada. I was looking at this and
1:13:38
Speaker 1: thinking that UNLV can't make the Mountain West title game
1:13:41
Speaker 1: anymore because New Mexico got us a win today against
1:13:45
Speaker 1: San Diego State, and Boise State is there, and if
1:13:49
Speaker 1: you look at UNLV, they already lost to Boise and
1:13:52
Speaker 1: New Mexico Boise somehow escaped with a win today or
1:13:55
Speaker 1: the Utah State's still covered. So I was correct about
1:13:58
Speaker 1: the cover there, and I'm pissed on it. Put it
1:14:00
Speaker 1: in my pick six and pick seven because I almost
1:14:03
Speaker 1: put Utah State in for Mountain West. What it was
1:14:08
Speaker 1: like or for UNLV. I mean, it looks like they
1:14:11
Speaker 1: can't make the Mountain West title game anymore, But apparently
1:14:14
Speaker 1: that's not true because I guess they use for a tiebreaker,
1:14:18
Speaker 1: they use like computer metrics, which is ridiculous. So I
1:14:24
Speaker 1: believe San Diego State is in and then between boys
1:14:29
Speaker 1: in New Mexico and UNLV, it's gonna come down to
1:14:31
Speaker 1: like I think it's gonna come down to, Well, UNLV
1:14:34
Speaker 1: has to win this game at Nevada, but I think
1:14:36
Speaker 1: it's all if they do, it's gonna come down to
1:14:38
Speaker 1: computer metrics, which is totally bizarre. Now for Nevada, I
1:14:43
Speaker 1: think they are gonna show up one last time here
1:14:45
Speaker 1: because these two teams do not like each other. This
1:14:48
Speaker 1: is a rivalry, and Nevada did not win the game
1:14:51
Speaker 1: last year. UNLV did. UNLV's been the better team the
1:14:53
Speaker 1: last couple of years, so Nevada probably doesn't like this
1:14:56
Speaker 1: role reversal where they're For a long time they were
1:14:59
Speaker 1: the that or the two teams, and now UNLV is
1:15:02
Speaker 1: almost the bigger brother now in the state of Nevada.
1:15:05
Speaker 1: So I think Nevada will show up for it. They've
1:15:07
Speaker 1: won two games in a row, which is a good
1:15:08
Speaker 1: sign that they're starting to play a little bit better
1:15:11
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be in their senior night here. So
1:15:15
Speaker 1: but for UNLV, I mean, I was gonna potentially give
1:15:18
Speaker 1: out Nevada if UNLV was eliminated from Mountain West contention,
1:15:21
Speaker 1: but they're not, and they're in a situation where they're
1:15:24
Speaker 1: not controlling their own destiny, so they might still come
1:15:27
Speaker 1: in and play looseier and play well. So I don't
1:15:29
Speaker 1: quite want to do it, but I would lean to
1:15:31
Speaker 1: Nevada plus the points. UNLV is at seven and a half,
1:15:34
Speaker 1: seventy percent of tickets on them, fifty three percent of
1:15:36
Speaker 1: the cash on Nevada, so the money coming in on
1:15:40
Speaker 1: the Nevada side, I don't disagree with that. And then
1:15:45
Speaker 1: Fresno at San Jose Steve. Fresno, they're eliminated. They cannot
1:15:48
Speaker 1: get into the Mount West Championship game, so they're already
1:15:53
Speaker 1: Bowl eligible, So they don't really have a whole lot
1:15:54
Speaker 1: to play for here. Man, They're going to San Jose State.
1:15:57
Speaker 1: San Jose State is not going to make a bowl
1:15:59
Speaker 1: this year, and this is gonna be their senior Day
1:16:02
Speaker 1: and their last game. So and they were better against
1:16:05
Speaker 1: San Diego State, as I pointed out earlier today than
1:16:07
Speaker 1: what that score looked like. San Jose State actually outgained
1:16:10
Speaker 1: San Diego State in that game. So I think San
1:16:13
Speaker 1: Jose State will show up for Senior Day. And they've
1:16:15
Speaker 1: only scored thirteen points in the last two games, which
1:16:18
Speaker 1: is just embarrassing. So again, Fresno, they're already in a bowl,
1:16:22
Speaker 1: so they don't really have a whole lot of motivation here.
1:16:26
Speaker 1: I don't think they're up to a three and a
1:16:27
Speaker 1: half point favorite as well, and their public ninety percent
1:16:30
Speaker 1: of tickets, only eighty seven percent of the cash. The
1:16:32
Speaker 1: public sees the records and they just want to lay
1:16:35
Speaker 1: the points with the team with the better record. But
1:16:36
Speaker 1: I would take the points with San Jose State. The
1:16:39
Speaker 1: totals fairly low at forty seven and a half as well.
1:16:43
Speaker 1: Now it is best bets time, I know. I give
1:16:46
Speaker 1: it a strong lean on Virginia Tech. Oh and I
1:16:49
Speaker 1: do have one other lean that I like hold on
1:16:51
Speaker 1: before I get to best bets. This one. The money
1:16:54
Speaker 1: is just disagreeing with me too, strong man. I just
1:16:56
Speaker 1: don't think I could do it. But I don't know
1:16:58
Speaker 1: how I skipped over it. Where this game, Yeah, it's
1:17:03
Speaker 1: bcing Syracuse. And yes, by the way, I think I
1:17:08
Speaker 1: think I ran Nate out of the building. I apologize, man,
1:17:11
Speaker 1: I'm definitely a dick. I apologize. So I get super
1:17:14
Speaker 1: frustrated about the losses that I take on the show.
1:17:17
Speaker 1: So we're just in general the losses that I take.
1:17:20
Speaker 1: So yeah, oh you're still there, thank you, Nate. I've
1:17:23
Speaker 1: yelled at Nate before too over deflate Gate. So I'm
1:17:28
Speaker 1: I'm very much a dick. I apologize, yeah, I mean yeah,
1:17:34
Speaker 1: I just get really really frustrated. Man, I'm stubborn. I
1:17:36
Speaker 1: want to be right. That's really the whole thing. Yeah, UNLV,
1:17:39
Speaker 1: they are not my favorite. I don't want to say
1:17:44
Speaker 1: I've been proven right, but I mean I think maybe
1:17:46
Speaker 1: I kind of have. I still don't think they're very good,
1:17:48
Speaker 1: but boise staying, I mean they just fell off because
1:17:51
Speaker 1: they lost their quarterback whatever. All right, Yeah, yeah, thank you, sir.
1:17:57
Speaker 1: B Seeing Syracuse this game, to me, this game looks
1:18:01
Speaker 1: like Syracuse has to be the right side here. I mean,
1:18:04
Speaker 1: I know how ass Syracuse has been, and I know
1:18:08
Speaker 1: that the fact they have three wins and BC only
1:18:10
Speaker 1: has one, it almost looks too easy to take the
1:18:12
Speaker 1: points with Syracuse, which kind of has me hesitating, like
1:18:15
Speaker 1: why is BC the favorite here? But but look at
1:18:19
Speaker 1: what BC did last week. Dude, BC almost beat Georgia
1:18:22
Speaker 1: Tech like this was BC senior day. I did say,
1:18:26
Speaker 1: I leaned to taking the points with BC, and they
1:18:28
Speaker 1: had Georgia check completely on the ropes. Dude. BC was
1:18:31
Speaker 1: winning this game twenty eight to twenty in the fourth,
1:18:34
Speaker 1: actually twenty eight to seventeen going into the fourth quarter
1:18:37
Speaker 1: and they blew the game and BC had retaken the
1:18:41
Speaker 1: lead with four minutes left with Turbo Richard by the way.
1:18:45
Speaker 1: Turbo Dick got them their touchdown that gave them the
1:18:49
Speaker 1: lead with four minutes left, great name, by the way,
1:18:53
Speaker 1: and they went for the two point conversion to go
1:18:55
Speaker 1: up three and failed, And if they had done that
1:18:59
Speaker 1: then the game would have gone into overtime, but instead
1:19:01
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech won with a field. I mean, that would
1:19:03
Speaker 1: have been a massive win for BC. Man. So I
1:19:06
Speaker 1: just don't see how BC gets back up off the
1:19:08
Speaker 1: mat after that and goes in plays at Syracuse. I
1:19:11
Speaker 1: just don't see it. And Syracuse just lost to Notre
1:19:14
Speaker 1: Dame seventy to seven. I mean, you lose seventy to
1:19:18
Speaker 1: seven to anybody. I know. Notre Dame's good and Syracuse
1:19:21
Speaker 1: is really bad and they've been awful without Angelly Angelie. However,
1:19:26
Speaker 1: you pronounced to the quarterbacks name. I know he's gone,
1:19:29
Speaker 1: he's hurt, But seventy to seven, I mean you got
1:19:32
Speaker 1: to bounce back from that in some way, man. I mean,
1:19:35
Speaker 1: no team is as bad as they look in their
1:19:37
Speaker 1: worst game, and that was that game could not have
1:19:39
Speaker 1: been any war seventy to seven is insane. If you
1:19:43
Speaker 1: look at the box score, the stats weren't as bad.
1:19:47
Speaker 1: I mean, Notre Dame outgained Syracuse my close to two
1:19:49
Speaker 1: hundred yards, but Syracus had three turnovers. Seventy to seven
1:19:54
Speaker 1: is crazy. And the craziest thing is Syracuse outpossessed Notre
1:19:58
Speaker 1: Dame forty like basically forty two minutes to eighteen. I mean,
1:20:02
Speaker 1: that's insane. I mean it's one of the craziest box
1:20:05
Speaker 1: scores I've ever seen. But I think Syracuse is gonna
1:20:08
Speaker 1: be really embarrassed off of that performance. Man, So I
1:20:11
Speaker 1: like Syracuse in this game plus the points, So the
1:20:14
Speaker 1: money is disagreeing with me. Fifty nine percent tickets, seventy
1:20:17
Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on BC. I mean, the
1:20:21
Speaker 1: only concern I think is that Syracuse has just been
1:20:23
Speaker 1: so bad with with their you know, with this quarterback
1:20:30
Speaker 1: scenario that they've had here, they like haven't shown the
1:20:32
Speaker 1: ability to win. And if you take them plus three,
1:20:35
Speaker 1: you're pretty much gonna need them to win the game.
1:20:36
Speaker 1: But BC has been really bad too, So I don't
1:20:40
Speaker 1: know I would take the points of Syracuse. That one's
1:20:42
Speaker 1: close to a play for me. I just don't see
1:20:45
Speaker 1: how BC has anything left after what they did last week.
1:20:48
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm very tempted to give that out as
1:20:50
Speaker 1: a play. Actually, I don't know. I kind of want
1:20:53
Speaker 1: to do it, but the market read is kind of
1:20:55
Speaker 1: disagreeing with me. You know what, Let's see what it
1:20:57
Speaker 1: looks like tomorrow morning and we'll see if I want
1:20:59
Speaker 1: to do it. Let's get to the best bets. Oh
1:21:04
Speaker 1: thank you, sir, A toad Mega fan, all right, hell yeah,
1:21:08
Speaker 1: let's get to the best bets. And hopefully my my
1:21:10
Speaker 1: read on these games is correct, man, because I've really
1:21:14
Speaker 1: tried to narrow this thing down, and one of them,
1:21:16
Speaker 1: we're going right back to our abuser from last week.
1:21:20
Speaker 1: They hurt us last week, and hopefully they don't hurt
1:21:22
Speaker 1: us again. We're gonna lay the two and a half
1:21:24
Speaker 1: with Baylor. This is against Houston. The public is not
1:21:28
Speaker 1: gonna want to do this, obviously. I mean, the public's
1:21:30
Speaker 1: gonna see Houston was just ranked for a while. They're
1:21:33
Speaker 1: eight and three and Baylor's five and six. Why would
1:21:36
Speaker 1: you lay points with Baylor? Right Like? That's I think
1:21:38
Speaker 1: what the public sentiment is gonna be. But again, the
1:21:41
Speaker 1: Osbiggers are telling you that Houston is only this slightly
1:21:44
Speaker 1: better team, and I don't think the spot is good
1:21:47
Speaker 1: for Houston because Houston is basically in the dream crusher now.
1:21:51
Speaker 1: I mean Houston the fact that they just lost on
1:21:53
Speaker 1: their senior Day against TCU last week. That officially eliminated
1:21:57
Speaker 1: Houston from potentially being in the Big Twelve title game
1:22:00
Speaker 1: because that gave him their third loss. And third loss,
1:22:03
Speaker 1: I mean, they're definitely not gonna be going to the
1:22:05
Speaker 1: playoff or anything like that either, even though I don't
1:22:07
Speaker 1: know if well they could have gone to the playoff
1:22:09
Speaker 1: if they won the Big Twelve. So that was pretty
1:22:12
Speaker 1: much the dream crusher game, man. And now they've gotta
1:22:13
Speaker 1: turn around again, go out on the road and play Baylor,
1:22:16
Speaker 1: and I just don't see what they have, Like, what
1:22:19
Speaker 1: reason do they have to play now? I mean, they're
1:22:20
Speaker 1: already gonna be in a bowl. It'll be an alright bowl,
1:22:23
Speaker 1: whatever it is. They can't get to the Big Twelve
1:22:25
Speaker 1: title game anymore, so they just don't really have anything
1:22:28
Speaker 1: to play for as far as I can see, whereas
1:22:29
Speaker 1: Baylor they still do. I mean, they still want that
1:22:32
Speaker 1: six win, I think, to become Bowl eligible at the
1:22:35
Speaker 1: very least. This will be senior day now. I mean Baylor.
1:22:38
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened in that game last week.
1:22:40
Speaker 1: Remember Baylor was winning that game seventeen to fourteen, and
1:22:43
Speaker 1: I'm thinking, all right, Baylor's gonna cover for us here.
1:22:46
Speaker 1: That was at halftime and then all of a sudden,
1:22:49
Speaker 1: like it was like the worst second half they could
1:22:51
Speaker 1: possibly have. But statistically the game was really close. I
1:22:54
Speaker 1: don't know what happened in this game. Arizona only outgained
1:22:57
Speaker 1: them by twelve yards. Baylor output posess them and the
1:23:01
Speaker 1: first downs were close. Baylor was minus two and turnovers.
1:23:05
Speaker 1: What happened in this game. I didn't watch it. I
1:23:07
Speaker 1: don't know. There was a pick six at the end
1:23:08
Speaker 1: of the game. Yeah, I just don't get it, man.
1:23:12
Speaker 1: I think I don't think my read was wrong on that.
1:23:14
Speaker 1: I think Baylor deserved better than what that final score was.
1:23:18
Speaker 1: I like Baylor here. I think they're the only team
1:23:20
Speaker 1: that has really a real reason to show up in
1:23:22
Speaker 1: this one. The only thing that I could really see
1:23:24
Speaker 1: is that you could argue that Houston considers themselves to
1:23:27
Speaker 1: be a little brother in Texas and they're gonna want
1:23:29
Speaker 1: to go beat Baylor. But I don't know man, I'm
1:23:33
Speaker 1: not sure that I see it. I think Baylor's got
1:23:35
Speaker 1: the motivation on their side. I like Baylor in that game,
1:23:38
Speaker 1: and looking at the market, Reid, Houston is a public underdog,
1:23:42
Speaker 1: and you know, I weren't about public underdogs. Sixty eight
1:23:45
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, only sixty five percent of
1:23:47
Speaker 1: the cash. Baylor is sitting in a nice two and
1:23:49
Speaker 1: a half price here. You might have to lay a
1:23:52
Speaker 1: little bit of juice on the two and a half,
1:23:54
Speaker 1: but even up to minus one fifteen, I would probably
1:23:57
Speaker 1: do that rather than lay the three. Just so you're
1:24:01
Speaker 1: on the right side of that key number. I think
1:24:02
Speaker 1: it's worth paying maybe that just up to the minus
1:24:05
Speaker 1: one fifteen juice on that of the I don't know.
1:24:07
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly like how much each half point
1:24:09
Speaker 1: should be worth, and I think some of it depends
1:24:11
Speaker 1: on the total. And this is a high total at
1:24:14
Speaker 1: fifty seven, so each point is worth a little bit less.
1:24:16
Speaker 1: In that case, it's gonna make it. The high total
1:24:19
Speaker 1: makes it a little bit easier for the for a
1:24:23
Speaker 1: team to cover. Right now. The one thing I guess
1:24:26
Speaker 1: that you could worry about is that Houston is the
1:24:27
Speaker 1: better defense. So Houston does fall into the better defense
1:24:32
Speaker 1: getting points. But again, I just don't see them being
1:24:34
Speaker 1: motivated here. I think Baylors should be able to get
1:24:36
Speaker 1: that offense going here in this one. So that's the
1:24:40
Speaker 1: way that I'm leaning, or that's the play that I'm
1:24:42
Speaker 1: giving out there. And then the other one is gonna
1:24:45
Speaker 1: be Auburn plus the points at five and a half,
1:24:47
Speaker 1: we're gonna go. We're going back to both of our
1:24:49
Speaker 1: abusers here. Man. Both these teams have been awful to
1:24:52
Speaker 1: us this year. Auburn has been awful to me for
1:24:55
Speaker 1: multiple years. But the public's gonna be all on Alabama. Man,
1:24:59
Speaker 1: this looks like a small price to lay with a
1:25:01
Speaker 1: top ten ranked Alabama team against an Auburn team. It's
1:25:05
Speaker 1: below five hundred, it looks so easy to lay the points.
1:25:08
Speaker 1: It basically looks like a trap. Eighty three percent of tickets,
1:25:11
Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of the cash in Alabama, they're gonna
1:25:13
Speaker 1: be public. The total here is low at forty six
1:25:16
Speaker 1: and a half, so taking the points I like taking
1:25:19
Speaker 1: the points of the low total. I would not disagree
1:25:21
Speaker 1: with an under in this game as well, because I
1:25:22
Speaker 1: think you're gonna see good defense here, man, Auburn, they
1:25:26
Speaker 1: do play good defense. Their offense has really been their problem.
1:25:29
Speaker 1: And Alabama, this is a huge game, and this is
1:25:33
Speaker 1: this is the Iron Bowl in Alabama. It's gonna be
1:25:36
Speaker 1: a really hostile environment here in a huge rivalry game
1:25:39
Speaker 1: where these teams eight each other, and it's gonna be
1:25:42
Speaker 1: you know, Simpson having to go out on the road
1:25:44
Speaker 1: here for Alabama. And I know he's been good this
1:25:47
Speaker 1: year for them, for sure, but I don't know, man,
1:25:51
Speaker 1: as a true freshman, is he gonna come in and
1:25:53
Speaker 1: be able to handle this situation. I mean, maybe he
1:25:55
Speaker 1: did handle the Georgia situation, but I don't know if
1:25:58
Speaker 1: I like this man for Alabama or Sorry, they rank tenth,
1:26:01
Speaker 1: but yeah, that still qualifies to the top ten for Alabama.
1:26:06
Speaker 1: I am pretty sure they control their own destiny at
1:26:09
Speaker 1: this point, so I don't Again, that's a situation I
1:26:12
Speaker 1: do not like. I like to fade teams in that
1:26:15
Speaker 1: spot because you're gonna be getting value fading them, because
1:26:18
Speaker 1: the oddsmakers know that too. So I'm pretty sure with
1:26:20
Speaker 1: the fact that A and M loss here, in the
1:26:22
Speaker 1: fact that Alabama has the tiebreaker over Georgia, I believe Alabama,
1:26:26
Speaker 1: if they win, they're gonna be in the SEC Championship game,
1:26:29
Speaker 1: all they have to do is beat to Auburn. So
1:26:31
Speaker 1: it's like it seems so easy. All we got to
1:26:34
Speaker 1: do is be to Auburn. Right, that's the whole thing.
1:26:37
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know. And yeah, Alabama,
1:26:40
Speaker 1: I mean, they can't really afford a third loss. I
1:26:42
Speaker 1: wouldn't say if they take a third loss, it's gonna
1:26:45
Speaker 1: be dicey for them to make the playoff. But of course,
1:26:48
Speaker 1: you know, Auburn's gonna be motivated for even just for
1:26:51
Speaker 1: that reason alone. They get to spoil their hated rival
1:26:54
Speaker 1: season at home on Senior Day. I think Auburn's gonna
1:26:57
Speaker 1: show up for that reason. But Alabama has not been
1:27:00
Speaker 1: good at covering on the road, man, I mean, look
1:27:02
Speaker 1: at their road games. They had an outright fourteen point
1:27:04
Speaker 1: loss at Florida State, they won by three at Georgia,
1:27:08
Speaker 1: by three at Missouri which was a push for US,
1:27:11
Speaker 1: by seven at South Carolina which was a win for
1:27:13
Speaker 1: US there and then and that's it, I think, right,
1:27:17
Speaker 1: that's all their road games. So they have not won
1:27:21
Speaker 1: any road game by more than a single score. And
1:27:24
Speaker 1: three other four road games they were not able to
1:27:27
Speaker 1: cover a they were not able to cover this number,
1:27:30
Speaker 1: so they have not covered by margin on the road. Man.
1:27:33
Speaker 1: And Auburn, as I've been saying all year, I think
1:27:36
Speaker 1: they're flying totally under the radar here. They faced a
1:27:38
Speaker 1: really difficult schedule and they've come up just short in
1:27:41
Speaker 1: a lot of games. Man, I mean, look at these games.
1:27:43
Speaker 1: They lost by seven. I think they lost the cover
1:27:47
Speaker 1: against Ou like right against Oklahoma on the road, like
1:27:50
Speaker 1: right at the end on a safety. I think, so
1:27:52
Speaker 1: they were gonna lose that game by five. Instead they
1:27:55
Speaker 1: lost by seven. They only lost at Texas A and
1:27:58
Speaker 1: M by six, even though I know Texas and did
1:28:01
Speaker 1: destroy them statistically, but still Auburn that defense coming through again.
1:28:05
Speaker 1: They only lost by ten at Georgia, and I'm still
1:28:08
Speaker 1: pissed or sorry. At home against Georgia, I'm still pissed
1:28:11
Speaker 1: about that. I think that should have been a cover.
1:28:13
Speaker 1: That was a loss for us with Auburn there, I
1:28:15
Speaker 1: think they should have covered that number because that was
1:28:19
Speaker 1: the game of the refs just handed the game to
1:28:21
Speaker 1: Georgia basically, and Auburn had that touchdown taken off the
1:28:24
Speaker 1: board or whatever that was. That pissed me off. They
1:28:27
Speaker 1: only lost by six to Missouri. So again another close
1:28:30
Speaker 1: game that was at home. And then yeah, they lost
1:28:35
Speaker 1: by seven to Kentucky. I know that was a really
1:28:37
Speaker 1: ugly one, and Auburn fired their coach because of it,
1:28:40
Speaker 1: like they should have won that one. They were a
1:28:41
Speaker 1: huge favorite home and that eliminated me and Survivor. So
1:28:44
Speaker 1: Auburn keeps abusing me, I know. And then they did
1:28:48
Speaker 1: bounce back pretty nicely though in the fired coach spot,
1:28:51
Speaker 1: which should have been a cover. Yet again we were
1:28:54
Speaker 1: on Auburn again. So dude, Auburn is eliminating me from Survivor.
1:28:58
Speaker 1: And I know I'm zero to three in giving out
1:29:00
Speaker 1: Auburn as a play or maybe own four even I
1:29:03
Speaker 1: don't know if I had them in that Ou game
1:29:05
Speaker 1: or not. Maybe I don't think I did, but I
1:29:07
Speaker 1: gave them out against Georgia Missouri, I believe, and Vandy
1:29:10
Speaker 1: so or own three against them, or we're owned three
1:29:14
Speaker 1: and giving up plays on them. I know, I get it,
1:29:16
Speaker 1: But the losses were basically all bullshit. This game went
1:29:20
Speaker 1: into overtime and Auburn did enough to cover this number.
1:29:23
Speaker 1: I don't know how they blew it. Man, They were
1:29:25
Speaker 1: winning a long like they were winning for a long
1:29:29
Speaker 1: stretch of this game. They sent the game into overtime.
1:29:33
Speaker 1: I mean they should have covered that. All that aside, though,
1:29:38
Speaker 1: I think Auburn's gonna show up here, not only because
1:29:40
Speaker 1: this is the iron Ball, it's a huge game, it's
1:29:42
Speaker 1: at home. They want nothing more than to beat their
1:29:45
Speaker 1: hated rival, and I think it's been a while since
1:29:47
Speaker 1: they've been able to do that, and they could spoil
1:29:50
Speaker 1: their season by doing it. The other thing is Auburn
1:29:53
Speaker 1: did not make a Bowl last year, and if they
1:29:55
Speaker 1: win this game, they'll be Bowl eligible, so I think
1:29:58
Speaker 1: that matters to them. So I think they're gonna show
1:30:00
Speaker 1: up for that reason too. I like Auburn plus the
1:30:03
Speaker 1: points here. Man, it looks way too easy for Alabama
1:30:07
Speaker 1: and their scenario, like in their mind, is gonna be
1:30:09
Speaker 1: way too easy. All we got to do is win
1:30:11
Speaker 1: and we're in. I think Auburn has a very good
1:30:14
Speaker 1: chance to win this game outright. So that's the other
1:30:17
Speaker 1: play there, man, It's just those two. What's up guys?
1:30:23
Speaker 1: Sob what's up? Man? I'm going through the chat here
1:30:26
Speaker 1: before I leave shorter video for once because it's because
1:30:30
Speaker 1: we had a lot of games today, so I don't
1:30:33
Speaker 1: mind that at least, and then we'll be back for
1:30:35
Speaker 1: Championship Week next week. Sab, what's up man? Thanks for
1:30:37
Speaker 1: hanging out my hat, boring bets. What's up man? No,
1:30:43
Speaker 1: this is a Boston College Eagles hat right here, baby
1:30:48
Speaker 1: BC Eagles, because because they're so great baby at every sport.
1:30:53
Speaker 1: This is my BC hat. I kind of I like
1:30:55
Speaker 1: how it fits me backwards though it's it's a little
1:30:58
Speaker 1: bit small, but it fits my head snugly, and it's
1:31:01
Speaker 1: got like an elastic headman, so it fits like it
1:31:05
Speaker 1: fits to my head like perfectly. Man. I don't know.
1:31:08
Speaker 1: I like it for that reason. Thank you. I've been putting,
1:31:12
Speaker 1: putting in work, but I mean it's been a good
1:31:14
Speaker 1: last couple of months, but the last couple of days
1:31:17
Speaker 1: have been not great. We had a slight loss today,
1:31:19
Speaker 1: but thank you, sir. You like Kennesaw State. I agree
1:31:22
Speaker 1: with that. Wisconsin. I don't even think I talked about
1:31:25
Speaker 1: the Wisconsin game. I don't even know if I agree
1:31:27
Speaker 1: with that or not. I agree with Southern miss I
1:31:29
Speaker 1: agree with U c l A. I agree with ucf UTSA.
1:31:35
Speaker 1: I didn't talk about UTSA. Kentucky. I do agree with Maryland.
1:31:38
Speaker 1: I did mention that the other two I might agree.
1:31:42
Speaker 1: Oh no, I did. I did talk about Kentucky. I
1:31:44
Speaker 1: agree with that as well. Utsa, I don't know. I
1:31:48
Speaker 1: mean I could look real what game is that? Again,
1:31:51
Speaker 1: They're at home, so usually they're a team you do
1:31:54
Speaker 1: want to look for at home. Money seems like it's
1:31:57
Speaker 1: coming in that way. I mean, I probably would agree
1:31:59
Speaker 1: with that. I don't have a strong opinion on that
1:32:02
Speaker 1: one really, though some of the other ones are stronger
1:32:04
Speaker 1: for me, Like Maryland is a stronger opinion for I think.
1:32:08
Speaker 1: Out of that list, Maryland is the strongest opinion for me.
1:32:11
Speaker 1: Kennesaw I agree with because I just don't see their
1:32:14
Speaker 1: opponent having any motivation. Let me see, that was who's
1:32:18
Speaker 1: Kenna saw up against again? Yeah, Liberty. I think Liberty
1:32:21
Speaker 1: is a dead team. But I mean the only worry
1:32:24
Speaker 1: is that they show up for Senior Night. But yeah,
1:32:26
Speaker 1: I agree with Kennesaw otherwise. And then the other one
1:32:30
Speaker 1: that I didn't really talk about was Wisconsin. They're playing Minnesota, right, Yeah,
1:32:34
Speaker 1: the money's coming in on Wisconsin. I don't know if
1:32:37
Speaker 1: I love that, But Minnesota they don't really have a
1:32:39
Speaker 1: whole lot to play for because they're already Bowl eligible,
1:32:42
Speaker 1: so Wisconsin is not going bowling, so there is that
1:32:45
Speaker 1: at least. And I believe they lost to Minnesota last
1:32:48
Speaker 1: year if I'm not mistaken. I forget though, But Wisconsin's
1:32:51
Speaker 1: coming up a big upset win ofver Illinois and their
1:32:53
Speaker 1: senior night. Man, So I worry about the letdown spot
1:32:56
Speaker 1: for Wisconsin here, Man, what that is my concern with
1:32:59
Speaker 1: Wisconson in that one. But Minnesota, I mean, I don't
1:33:04
Speaker 1: know how much reason they're gonna have for showing up
1:33:06
Speaker 1: because they are already Bowl eligible. So well, what about
1:33:11
Speaker 1: the last two games? I mean, they played like Northwestern
1:33:14
Speaker 1: in the last game. Why does that really matter? And
1:33:16
Speaker 1: Northwestern sucks? I don't like. I think the fact that
1:33:20
Speaker 1: Wisconsin just pulled off a pretty big home upset over Illinois,
1:33:24
Speaker 1: I think puts them in a potential letdown spot. In
1:33:27
Speaker 1: my opinion. I still agree with Wisconsin in this game,
1:33:30
Speaker 1: but it's not strong for me. Yeah, BC, yes, sir,
1:33:36
Speaker 1: all right, that's gonna do it. Man. So we went
1:33:38
Speaker 1: two and one today, so I'm not mad about that.
1:33:42
Speaker 1: That was all right. We lost with Mississippi State, but
1:33:44
Speaker 1: we turned it around. We got the win with New
1:33:46
Speaker 1: Mexico and we got the win with Texas beating the
1:33:49
Speaker 1: undefeated Texas A and m oh my god, the plays
1:33:52
Speaker 1: tomorrow Baylor minus two and a half Auburn plus five
1:33:56
Speaker 1: and a half were keeping it very selective. Hopefully we
1:33:59
Speaker 1: can get it done. Man. I'll rant about what happened
1:34:03
Speaker 1: today tomorrow morning, and hopefully the rest of the board
1:34:06
Speaker 1: is not big tomorrow, because it's gonna be a lot
1:34:07
Speaker 1: of college basketball at the very least that I'm gonna
1:34:09
Speaker 1: have to break down, So I'll be back in the morning.
1:34:12
Speaker 1: We're gonna have something in college basketball, probably, and then
1:34:15
Speaker 1: hopefully there's not a ton of hockey because all the
1:34:17
Speaker 1: hockey teams played today, so usually Saturday is fairly loaded
1:34:22
Speaker 1: for hockey, but hopefully it's not tomorrow. And then I
1:34:24
Speaker 1: know there'll be some NBA, but hopefully it's light. They
1:34:29
Speaker 1: blew a twenty eight to seven lean. I don't know
1:34:32
Speaker 1: if I care that much about that, though against Northwestern,
1:34:36
Speaker 1: I'm not really sure I care about that. You're up
1:34:39
Speaker 1: seven point one four units on the month and two
1:34:43
Speaker 1: point four or you're talking about me or you. I
1:34:47
Speaker 1: should switch on my tracking to the number of units
1:34:50
Speaker 1: on Action Network. But I tried to do that, and
1:34:53
Speaker 1: it like fucked it all up, like it didn't. It
1:34:55
Speaker 1: didn't get it right, like because my I do I
1:34:59
Speaker 1: do it with like I track it with like with
1:35:01
Speaker 1: money or used to actually be the money that I
1:35:03
Speaker 1: would bet, but now you know, I don't have enough
1:35:06
Speaker 1: liquid funds to bankroll this right now, but I would
1:35:10
Speaker 1: track it like based on that. So every one of
1:35:12
Speaker 1: my bets is like, oh, three hundred basically here, and
1:35:14
Speaker 1: that's how I'm tracking on an action network. I try
1:35:17
Speaker 1: to switch it to say, all right, let's just convert
1:35:20
Speaker 1: all of this to my unit size. Huh unit and
1:35:22
Speaker 1: my unit size is one hundred, and I'm betting three
1:35:25
Speaker 1: units on everything. That's what I tried to do, and
1:35:27
Speaker 1: it fucked it all up. It like divided it by
1:35:29
Speaker 1: a hundred or whatever. I'm like, or no, it didn't
1:35:33
Speaker 1: divide it by one hundred. So it was saying I
1:35:34
Speaker 1: was betting three hundred units on everything, and I'm like, no,
1:35:37
Speaker 1: I'm betting three units on it. So I couldn't get
1:35:39
Speaker 1: it to work correctly. So I don't know. Oh, you're
1:35:44
Speaker 1: following me on action, thank you, sir? Wait wait is
1:35:47
Speaker 1: that you I only have one follower? Is that you
1:35:50
Speaker 1: oh shit, that is you? Hell yeah, oh thank you, sir. Yeah,
1:35:55
Speaker 1: I mean I'm not like verified or anything on there.
1:35:57
Speaker 1: And sometimes I'll put like a placeholder bet in just
1:36:00
Speaker 1: oh that's you, all right, we follow each other. You're
1:36:02
Speaker 1: the only person I follow I think, and you're my
1:36:05
Speaker 1: only follower. Hey. We're mutuals on there, all right. Hell yeah,
1:36:08
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I don't know why I didn't realize that.
1:36:10
Speaker 1: Hell yeah, Well thank you for following me. Man. Yeah,
1:36:14
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're watching me there, I mean, everything
1:36:16
Speaker 1: is confirmed because I give out all my plays on
1:36:19
Speaker 1: this show beforehand, so that can be confirmation. But like
1:36:23
Speaker 1: sometimes I'll put in a placeholder where it's a game
1:36:25
Speaker 1: like Texas today, Like I threw the two and a
1:36:27
Speaker 1: half in there just so I didn't forget about it.
1:36:30
Speaker 1: Like I threw it in there just as a pick
1:36:31
Speaker 1: to track it. But I said, like this morning, I
1:36:34
Speaker 1: was like, you're gonna get a three on this most likely,
1:36:36
Speaker 1: so I had to switch it to a three in there.
1:36:38
Speaker 1: But yeah, other than that, you know what I mean, Like,
1:36:41
Speaker 1: so I use it for place holding, but everything like
1:36:44
Speaker 1: that becomes final should be accurate as far as every
1:36:48
Speaker 1: like literally everything I give out here should match exactly that.
1:36:52
Speaker 1: And I'm on Instagram as well with the same place.
1:36:59
Speaker 1: You ha, you and I doing like the opposite things.
1:37:01
Speaker 1: Holy crap, that's crazy. What are we just betting the
1:37:04
Speaker 1: opposites of each other? I don't know, man, But yeah,
1:37:09
Speaker 1: I mean, hell yeah, thanks for hanging out. Oh hell yeah,
1:37:13
Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out man. But yeah, so you know
1:37:17
Speaker 1: where I stand. And if you watch my show you'll
1:37:19
Speaker 1: see my reasoning on all these plays here. So that's
1:37:23
Speaker 1: gonna do it for now. I'll be back in the
1:37:24
Speaker 1: morning with all these other sports. Like I said, learn
1:37:27
Speaker 1: it's on Instagram. Learn it's own on Twitter. You can
1:37:30
Speaker 1: check me out there, like, subscribe to the channel here.
1:37:32
Speaker 1: It's get me some more viewers here, give me some
1:37:35
Speaker 1: good comments. Yeah, thank you guys. I again, Nate, I
1:37:39
Speaker 1: apologize for getting all heated and being a dick about
1:37:42
Speaker 1: about losing my play on Utah today. Dude, I just
1:37:46
Speaker 1: get really pissed man on the Utah mamoth. I mean shit, man.
1:37:53
Speaker 1: I'm also on audio. You can give me a good
1:37:54
Speaker 1: review on there, and that helps me out. And listening
1:37:56
Speaker 1: helps me out there too. That's Spotify and iTunes or
1:38:01
Speaker 1: Apple there, so that helps me out. I have a
1:38:03
Speaker 1: ukulele channel as well, because I do that still have
1:38:05
Speaker 1: put up a couple covers recently covered in you on YouTube,
1:38:09
Speaker 1: and and then we have Patreon dot com slash learned
1:38:14
Speaker 1: to Toe and you get a ukulele Spotify feed over
1:38:16
Speaker 1: there and requests that I still have to pay its
1:38:20
Speaker 1: atention to. So yeah, well, uh yeah, that's all. That's
1:38:26
Speaker 1: that's all the plugs. Man, I don't know. I'm out
1:38:28
Speaker 1: of it. It's too late right now. I'm trying to
1:38:29
Speaker 1: read the comments too. Oh thank you, Nate, thank you, sir.
1:38:34
Speaker 1: They're five and one when they've been down too. Yeah,
1:38:38
Speaker 1: I don't want to think about it. Man. Oh and
1:38:40
Speaker 1: they're in the the Dead Dad spot too. Oh my god. No.
1:38:43
Speaker 1: I talked about the dad trips being motivating, but uh,
1:38:47
Speaker 1: keller on Utah's father died, did he play because that's
1:38:50
Speaker 1: usually a big motivator, like or you know, like like
1:38:54
Speaker 1: not only just the player, but maybe the team will play.
1:38:56
Speaker 1: You remember the famous one was Brett Favre like having
1:38:59
Speaker 1: one of his career days, like right after his father died.
1:39:02
Speaker 1: He was like, no, I want to play, and he
1:39:04
Speaker 1: got out there and just slung it and had a
1:39:06
Speaker 1: huge game, which I think was against the Raiders, but
1:39:09
Speaker 1: I don't remember. Oh, thank you sir, Thank you guys. Yeah,
1:39:13
Speaker 1: i'll catch you in the morning. Yeah yeah, he played,
1:39:15
Speaker 1: So that should have been another part of the handicap.
1:39:17
Speaker 1: I didn't even I didn't even realize that. But yeah, Keller,
1:39:22
Speaker 1: I should get a jersey. I want to get a
1:39:25
Speaker 1: mammoth jersey with the Mammoth logo on it, man, because
1:39:27
Speaker 1: people make fun of it, but I actually kind of
1:39:29
Speaker 1: like it. I think it's funny and cool and I
1:39:32
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, it kind of sounds badass. It
1:39:34
Speaker 1: sounds like mast it on one of my bands that
1:39:37
Speaker 1: I like. Mammoth sounds, you know. I don't know. It
1:39:41
Speaker 1: sounds powerful. So I like it and people are making
1:39:44
Speaker 1: fun of their mascot, but I still like it. I
1:39:47
Speaker 1: want to get one, man, Maybe I will one of
1:39:50
Speaker 1: my knockoff Chinese wholesale jerseys. I'll get a Keller. I
1:39:54
Speaker 1: want to look into it. That's gonna do it. I
1:39:57
Speaker 1: appreciate it, guys. I'll be back in the morning. In
1:39:59
Speaker 1: peace for now,