Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Chaos Crash?📉with Gareth Soloway Technical Analysis

Transcript

Chaos Crash?📉with Gareth Soloway Technical Analysis · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Trump chaos of course hitting the markets again this week.
0:02
Speaker 1: We'll break it down. It's going to be a good one.
0:04
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0:44
Speaker 1: going to bring on mister Garrett Solaway here in a minute.
0:47
Speaker 1: Before we do that, I want to go to a
0:49
Speaker 1: clip that kind of sets up today's topic, which is
0:52
Speaker 1: really around Trump's new threat.
0:55
Speaker 2: Take a look, because if you blinked, you basically could
0:58
Speaker 2: have missed what happened last Saturday nights, taken to target
1:01
Speaker 2: those eight European countries, many of whom, most of whom
1:04
Speaker 2: have basically sent some kind of merit military delegation to
1:07
Speaker 2: Greenland saying that basically all of you are basically contravening
1:10
Speaker 2: my effort to take over Greenland. So these eight nations,
1:13
Speaker 2: which are Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom,
1:17
Speaker 2: the Netherlands and Finland, will all face ten percent tariffs
1:20
Speaker 2: beginning February the first, and that that will ramp up
1:23
Speaker 2: on June the first to a twenty five percent tariffs.
1:27
Speaker 1: So all of this boiling into of course Greenland. But
1:30
Speaker 1: really the key thing here is is that Trump continues
1:33
Speaker 1: to use tariffs as an instrument for negotiation or forcing negotiations.
1:38
Speaker 3: I should say.
1:39
Speaker 1: This of course has rippling effects onto the market. So
1:43
Speaker 1: I want to bring in Gareth Soloway from Verified Investing.
1:46
Speaker 4: How are you, Gareth, I'm good, Thank you, Paul.
1:50
Speaker 1: If you guys have not checked out Verified Investing, you
1:53
Speaker 1: can jump over to their YouTube channel right there, of course,
1:56
Speaker 1: and you can learn a little bit more about what
1:58
Speaker 1: they are doing, and of course subscribe over there their channel.
2:01
Speaker 1: Gareth let's get into a couple of points here. First
2:04
Speaker 1: of all, a lot happening in the markets as well
2:07
Speaker 1: as not only news, but also the markets themselves. S
2:10
Speaker 1: and P holding steady, Nasdaq down one now, Jones now
2:16
Speaker 1: down a half, Gold is up a percent, Silver's up three.
2:20
Speaker 1: You know, when you look at this week right now,
2:23
Speaker 1: especially with everything that's happening on the tariff side of things,
2:26
Speaker 1: do you think that the US being closed in the
2:28
Speaker 1: stock market today, do you think that the market is
2:32
Speaker 1: going to open a little differently tomorrow with all this
2:36
Speaker 1: pressure now from a geopolitical standpoint.
2:40
Speaker 4: Yeah, it is interesting.
2:41
Speaker 5: I think the first thing we have to note is
2:43
Speaker 5: that when these big announcements on change like economic policy
2:47
Speaker 5: come out, they're put on these three day weekends, or
2:50
Speaker 5: at least they're put out on Friday night, And what
2:52
Speaker 5: it does is it gives the market the most time
2:55
Speaker 5: to kind of relax about the news. So initially the
2:58
Speaker 5: reaction is fear and panic, but over the course of
3:01
Speaker 5: a three day weekend here, the idea was is that
3:03
Speaker 5: the markets will adapt to it and kind of come
3:06
Speaker 5: back and be more neutral. Now we're still seeing the
3:08
Speaker 5: futures down pretty sharply here, but I do think that again,
3:11
Speaker 5: there was a method to the madness here of imposing
3:14
Speaker 5: these tariffs when they were imposed.
3:16
Speaker 4: We'll have to see though.
3:17
Speaker 5: The idea here from Trump, and we know his playbook
3:20
Speaker 5: at this point is to strong arm with the threat
3:22
Speaker 5: of tariffs so that he gets others to give in.
3:25
Speaker 5: And we'll see if that works out in this scenario.
3:28
Speaker 1: Well, you're looking at his playbook and one of the
3:31
Speaker 1: playbook items is the number six. I'll show you number
3:36
Speaker 1: six when you go over to this. This is one
3:37
Speaker 1: that's been out there for a while. We actually showed
3:40
Speaker 1: this on the channel quite a while ago, and that
3:42
Speaker 1: was interesting because on Sunday, when futures reopen, and this case,
3:47
Speaker 1: stock market is what we see right now, of course,
3:50
Speaker 1: are having a little bit of reaction to the tariff headlines.
3:52
Speaker 1: And then on Monday or Tuesday, President Trump continues applying
3:56
Speaker 1: public pressure and then investors begin to recognize the tariffs
4:00
Speaker 1: maybe are not going to happen. And then by Wednesday,
4:03
Speaker 1: in this case, maybe Thursday, since Monday is closed, you
4:06
Speaker 1: have a reversal one you have to buy the dip,
4:08
Speaker 1: and then of course the market goes back up. So
4:10
Speaker 1: that's kind of the playbook that has been in and
4:13
Speaker 1: around President Trump for almost the beginning because it's been
4:18
Speaker 1: tracked all the way down to what has proven to.
4:21
Speaker 3: Be pretty accurate. Right here.
4:22
Speaker 1: What if you were to hold this position and say no,
4:25
Speaker 1: we really do want Greenland and we're going to apply
4:27
Speaker 1: pressure via tariffs. How does the market respond?
4:31
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the market is it would be much
4:33
Speaker 5: more negative to that aspect. Right is The idea here
4:37
Speaker 5: is that can these tariffs being or threaten to be imposed.
4:40
Speaker 5: We know they'll go in effect at the start of
4:42
Speaker 5: February and then ratchet it up to twenty five percent,
4:45
Speaker 5: will they actually hold? And again, this is going to
4:47
Speaker 5: be interesting because Europe is going to likely call the
4:50
Speaker 5: bluff here. I think there's more and more of a
4:52
Speaker 5: playbook where the threats are serious. But then Trump is
4:56
Speaker 5: very reluctant to do anything that will hurt the market
4:59
Speaker 5: long term from the stock market, and this is something
5:02
Speaker 5: where if the European Union does go the kind of
5:06
Speaker 5: the nuclear route and come back that you would see
5:09
Speaker 5: a massive sell off in the market. I think ten
5:12
Speaker 5: percent is very possible in this scenario as it comes
5:15
Speaker 5: to a head. And so you know, you're right, this
5:17
Speaker 5: is different this is a whole nation now that's at stake,
5:20
Speaker 5: and at some point you have to say, okay, is
5:23
Speaker 5: this a bully scenario? Will we see these European unions
5:26
Speaker 5: stand up to this scenario and put their foot down
5:29
Speaker 5: Allah what they're trying to do with Putin? I mean,
5:31
Speaker 5: in a weird way, while there's no military action here,
5:34
Speaker 5: it's kind of the same thing. I mean, here you
5:36
Speaker 5: have one country, Russia coming into Ukraine trying to take
5:39
Speaker 5: it over, and here you have the US trying to
5:41
Speaker 5: do the same. Obviously not with the same methods, thank goodness,
5:44
Speaker 5: but it does warrant the question of who's able to
5:47
Speaker 5: push who here.
5:49
Speaker 1: Well, and to me, you look at the way Trump
5:53
Speaker 1: has responded, especially when you look at what Scott Besse
5:56
Speaker 1: and Lutnik are doing, and they're all in with you know,
5:59
Speaker 1: over the World Economic Forum right now in Dovo, and
6:03
Speaker 1: I think the point being is is they've been trying
6:05
Speaker 1: to position for quite some time. My question this is
6:08
Speaker 1: much more hypothetical, but is maybe the play really at
6:13
Speaker 1: NATO here in general? That would be I think a
6:16
Speaker 1: bigger impact to the markets and of how that plays out.
6:20
Speaker 1: My question if you have that kind of pressure on
6:22
Speaker 1: traditional markets. Does this not play well for bitcoin because
6:26
Speaker 1: you've got bitcoin trading now which is flipping bearsh right now,
6:31
Speaker 1: we could lose the ninety k. How would this pivot out?
6:35
Speaker 1: And what is your outlook for bitcoin right now?
6:38
Speaker 5: Yeah? And this is so fascinating because you have two
6:41
Speaker 5: worlds colliding here. One is the fear factor which historically
6:45
Speaker 5: has brought bitcoin down, and then the ultimate safe haven asset,
6:49
Speaker 5: which is hugely bullish for bitcoin. And I'll show you
6:52
Speaker 5: here on the chart, and I think this plays into
6:54
Speaker 5: it very much, So I'll share my chart. We'll go
6:56
Speaker 5: to that is right now you are still putting in
6:59
Speaker 5: what we would call a bear flag on the chart
7:02
Speaker 5: of bitcoin. Right we have this bigger move down here
7:05
Speaker 5: and this is all inside bar action. So what this
7:07
Speaker 5: does is it implies that if fear hits the market,
7:10
Speaker 5: and we're even seeing it this weekend a little bit
7:12
Speaker 5: in this holiday weekend where bitcoin is coming down, then
7:15
Speaker 5: Bitcoin could trade lower. But I don't see the big
7:20
Speaker 5: corrections or the big drops that we've seen in past cycles.
7:23
Speaker 5: And the reason I say that, and I'll show you this,
7:25
Speaker 5: this is a really fascinating chart piece is that if
7:28
Speaker 5: you look at past bull market highs. If you look
7:31
Speaker 5: at the subsequent bear market, we've always come down basically
7:35
Speaker 5: right to that former all time high. Here's the twenty
7:38
Speaker 5: seventeen high, and in twenty twenty two we came down
7:42
Speaker 5: basically testing that high. And by that logic, what we
7:45
Speaker 5: can see here is that if we were to retest,
7:49
Speaker 5: the downside on bitcoin is somewhat limited to only about
7:52
Speaker 5: sixty five to seventy thousand, and again we were keep
7:55
Speaker 5: in mind we were down to basically eighty thousand recently,
7:58
Speaker 5: so it would not be that much further to go
8:01
Speaker 5: before we get a major cycle low. And I do
8:04
Speaker 5: think this is where it becomes more important, right where
8:06
Speaker 5: you have to start saying, yes the fear. If let's
8:09
Speaker 5: just say the stock market corrects ten or twenty percent,
8:11
Speaker 5: the likelihood is this would drive bitcoin lower in the
8:15
Speaker 5: short term, like we saw gold in the COVID era.
8:18
Speaker 5: Right when COVID hit, gold actually collapsed as well. But
8:21
Speaker 5: then I think you actually see this pivotal shift in
8:23
Speaker 5: bitcoin where Bitcoin starts to head much much higher from there.
8:28
Speaker 1: So you're looking at possibly another all time high in
8:31
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six.
8:34
Speaker 5: It's tough to know about that, right because we don't
8:36
Speaker 5: know how long the cycle will play out, Like if
8:38
Speaker 5: the stock market heads down, how long does that come?
8:41
Speaker 5: And then at what point does the switch occur where
8:43
Speaker 5: even a stock market declining becomes a bullish scenario for bitcoin.
8:47
Speaker 5: But I would say the second half of the year
8:49
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty six for me is the bullish half.
8:52
Speaker 5: I think we're at risk here, further downside in the
8:54
Speaker 5: first half, and then a recovery potentially new all time
8:57
Speaker 5: highs in the second half here.
9:00
Speaker 1: To kind of stay with the narrative that we're seeing
9:02
Speaker 1: around rate cuts right now, you've got FED decision in January,
9:06
Speaker 1: no change now at what is that ninety six point
9:09
Speaker 1: three percent? So is there absolutely no shot at a
9:14
Speaker 1: quarter basis point coming off the Fed?
9:17
Speaker 5: Especially, it certainly doesn't look like it at this point, right.
9:20
Speaker 5: I mean, if we look at the data, the data
9:22
Speaker 5: of the jobs market is relatively stable. And again I'm
9:25
Speaker 5: always kind of iffy on the whole picture of GDP.
9:28
Speaker 5: We see GDP numbers so robust, but if you look
9:31
Speaker 5: at the data, a lot of this is AI capex spend,
9:34
Speaker 5: right that's driving GDP.
9:36
Speaker 4: Here.
9:36
Speaker 5: If you look at the whole rest of the economy,
9:38
Speaker 5: the whole rest of the economy is continuing to stay very,
9:41
Speaker 5: very weak, And I think that's a weird dichotomy there
9:43
Speaker 5: that we have to start to kind of factor in
9:45
Speaker 5: in the near term.
9:46
Speaker 4: But ultimately I agree.
9:47
Speaker 5: I think in the first half here, you're less likely
9:50
Speaker 5: to get rate cuts until we get the new FED chair.
9:53
Speaker 5: Once we get the new FED share if we see
9:55
Speaker 5: how Trump has been towards Jerome Powell, you better believe
9:58
Speaker 5: that that new FED chair is going to be cutting
10:00
Speaker 5: rates and that'll lead into the second half.
10:03
Speaker 3: So that lines up quite nicely.
10:06
Speaker 1: If you compare what Bitcoin is doing against ethereum, and
10:11
Speaker 1: especially as the bitcoin eth trade overall, how would you
10:15
Speaker 1: look at ethereum by end of year? Do you feel
10:18
Speaker 1: like it has a better upside? If I'm trying to
10:20
Speaker 1: invest one or the other asset without hedging each, how
10:24
Speaker 1: would you play eth right now?
10:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's take a look at the eighth chart and
10:28
Speaker 5: see what that shows us here. So if we flip
10:30
Speaker 5: over to the eighth chart, we have the same sort
10:33
Speaker 5: of pattern in bitcoin, and what we're seeing here is
10:35
Speaker 5: this divergent kind of trend line period here where it
10:38
Speaker 5: connects from our April lows, which obviously where the tariff
10:41
Speaker 5: liberations sell off lows. And what we're watching here is
10:44
Speaker 5: do we get a break of this twenty nine seventy
10:47
Speaker 5: five level on eth? If that does occur, I see
10:50
Speaker 5: us heading down to the twenty one hundred level here
10:53
Speaker 5: there's a major major form or high, and then we
10:55
Speaker 5: could see right here where the price broke above and
10:58
Speaker 5: it retraced and then got the big bull move to
11:01
Speaker 5: the upside. So I'm actually I embarish on ETH in
11:04
Speaker 5: the near term here ultimately, like bitcoin, thinking that again,
11:07
Speaker 5: d risking could play a role, especially if the stock
11:10
Speaker 5: market does head lower like I think it will, the
11:12
Speaker 5: question is do we head down to twenty one hundred
11:15
Speaker 5: and hold that level? Now, if we look at where
11:17
Speaker 5: Bitcoin was back here versus eight, that obviously would be
11:20
Speaker 5: a pretty significant percentage sell off on eight, dropping from
11:23
Speaker 5: five thousand over fifty percent back to twenty one hundred.
11:27
Speaker 5: But I would start nibbling down there as well on
11:29
Speaker 5: eth and start looking for it to turn up in
11:31
Speaker 5: the second half of the year.
11:33
Speaker 1: You look at some other factors I think that people
11:36
Speaker 1: are following, and that is it does not appear that
11:39
Speaker 1: we're going to see a government shut down so that's
11:41
Speaker 1: good news.
11:41
Speaker 3: You know.
11:42
Speaker 1: Another thing, however, we're starting to see all of these
11:46
Speaker 1: bills and also I think positioning in DC around other
11:50
Speaker 1: issues that are facing the crypto and the digital assets
11:52
Speaker 1: industry along with what we're looking at, you know, from
11:56
Speaker 1: a standpoint of more money being injected into the The
12:00
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve now set to inject another fifty five billion
12:03
Speaker 1: between tomorrow and Feb twelve.
12:05
Speaker 3: So we're still seeing QE.
12:07
Speaker 1: Maybe it's not at the accelerated numbers that we saw
12:11
Speaker 1: in the past cycle, but I would say that's normal
12:14
Speaker 1: because the best past cycle was quite a bit different.
12:18
Speaker 1: Wouldn't a trader look at this and say, yeah, this
12:21
Speaker 1: is just the beginning of QE, and yeah we need
12:23
Speaker 1: to be in risk assets.
12:25
Speaker 4: So I agree with that.
12:27
Speaker 5: I do think that again we need a flush out
12:29
Speaker 5: of the markets first. You need kind of that scare
12:31
Speaker 5: factor that we saw last March in April that really
12:34
Speaker 5: knocked the markets down before they could regain right. And
12:37
Speaker 5: part of this is the whole psychology side of investing,
12:40
Speaker 5: where you get a lot of weak hands to invest
12:42
Speaker 5: because they think it's so easy to make money. They
12:44
Speaker 5: can become millionaires overnight, and generally history has shown us
12:48
Speaker 5: that those players need to be wiped out, and it's
12:50
Speaker 5: the hardcore people, the hardcore people in crypto that survive
12:53
Speaker 5: and thrive, the hardcore people in the metals. Right, we've
12:55
Speaker 5: seen the metals and what they've done. For the longest time.
12:58
Speaker 5: You were laughed at for being in gold and silver, right,
13:01
Speaker 5: And now all of a sudden, those long term holders
13:03
Speaker 5: are seeing the results of this. But ultimately, I think
13:06
Speaker 5: again it's a matter of yes, we're seeing the same playbook.
13:10
Speaker 5: We're already seeing qey, like you said, and it's only
13:13
Speaker 5: going to get more accelerated. In other words, what we're
13:16
Speaker 5: seeing here is the yields on the tenure already breaking out, right,
13:20
Speaker 5: And that to me is shocking because here you have
13:22
Speaker 5: a federal reserve that is cutting rates. Right, And if
13:25
Speaker 5: we go to the chart, we can take a look
13:26
Speaker 5: at the ten year yield. Look at this breakout that's
13:28
Speaker 5: beginning to happen on the US ten year yield. But
13:31
Speaker 5: the whole idea is most people would say, but wait,
13:33
Speaker 5: the Fed is cutting rates, but remember the Fed only
13:36
Speaker 5: controls the short end, not the long end. Well, what's
13:38
Speaker 5: one way the FED can try to control the long end?
13:41
Speaker 5: By buying mortgages. We did hear Trump just recently talk
13:45
Speaker 5: about doing that essentially mortgage backed securities, to try to
13:48
Speaker 5: control the long end of the curve. But I do
13:51
Speaker 5: think again, this here is telling you that, yeah, no
13:54
Speaker 5: government shut down, but other players countries out there that
13:58
Speaker 5: buy the US debt, big fun that buy the US debt,
14:01
Speaker 5: they're beginning to get nervous. There's no fiscal responsibility in DC.
14:06
Speaker 5: You know, we just talked about how there's no government shutdown,
14:09
Speaker 5: but that's just because we're willing to sign on to
14:11
Speaker 5: more spending, right a doge. They made cuts early. We're
14:14
Speaker 5: at new all time highs and spending it has all
14:17
Speaker 5: gone down the tubes, and that ultimately is going to
14:19
Speaker 5: make those that are buying US debt even more nervous
14:23
Speaker 5: and demand really higher interest rates and all of this
14:25
Speaker 5: screams de risking and eventually the rise of bitcoin in my.
14:29
Speaker 1: Opinion, Okay, so the rise on bitcoin, it's early, just
14:32
Speaker 1: a matter of timing here. You look at what's happening
14:36
Speaker 1: in the metals market, gold new time new all time highs,
14:39
Speaker 1: Silver new highs. Many people would look at this and say,
14:44
Speaker 1: maybe it's setting up for a blowoff top silver. We've
14:49
Speaker 1: can you know, we've been talking about one hundred dollars silver,
14:52
Speaker 1: five thousand dollars you know gold. Could this accelerate beyond that?
14:56
Speaker 1: And if it did, what would that do to crypto
15:00
Speaker 1: in general? Because it feels like there's a lot of
15:02
Speaker 1: money moving into silver over the last twelve months from crypto.
15:06
Speaker 5: Yes, And that's been one of my big thesis is
15:09
Speaker 5: for why the stock markets remain near its all time
15:12
Speaker 5: highs but bitcoin has fallen so much is because investors.
15:15
Speaker 5: You have two sets of investors in the crypto market.
15:18
Speaker 5: The people that have been in this forever, like you, Paul,
15:20
Speaker 5: who have just been diehards, and then you have the
15:22
Speaker 5: get rich quick people, right, and they're not going to
15:25
Speaker 5: stick around in bitcoin if it's not performing when they
15:27
Speaker 5: see silver and the shininess and the run on that.
15:29
Speaker 5: And so there's a lot of money that has moved
15:32
Speaker 5: over from the crypto markets, especially the all coins, right,
15:34
Speaker 5: the all coins, we've seen how barish they've been, and
15:37
Speaker 5: this money has flown into those metals. And so the
15:39
Speaker 5: idea is if we do see a reversion trade on silver,
15:42
Speaker 5: you might get some of that money back in the
15:44
Speaker 5: all coins. In the near term. And just going over
15:47
Speaker 5: to my chart on silver here, let's take a look.
15:49
Speaker 5: One of the interesting things is we are definitely into
15:52
Speaker 5: a resistant zone on silver right around this ninety four
15:56
Speaker 5: to ninety five dollars per ounce level, and you could
15:59
Speaker 5: see this trend line goes back to November, so it's
16:01
Speaker 5: not a long term trend line, but it's been such
16:03
Speaker 5: a vertical move that you just connect these lows and
16:06
Speaker 5: essentially you drag this line up to those highs, and
16:10
Speaker 5: you can see we're right up. Last time we hit it,
16:12
Speaker 5: we had a little pullback, we're hitting it again. I'm
16:15
Speaker 5: very curious this week to see where silver goes, and
16:18
Speaker 5: I do think there's a pullback in the cards down
16:20
Speaker 5: to about eighty. Then we'll have to see does it
16:22
Speaker 5: break the trend line and come even lower. But fascinating times, Paul,
16:27
Speaker 5: really is would.
16:28
Speaker 1: You double down on crypto, I mean on gold and
16:31
Speaker 1: silver right now?
16:33
Speaker 5: I would not know, you know, kind of what we
16:35
Speaker 5: were talking about prior of how you get a lot
16:38
Speaker 5: of the get rich quick people in and generally those
16:40
Speaker 5: get need to get washed out of the trade.
16:42
Speaker 4: First before it recovers.
16:44
Speaker 5: So I'm projecting out here a washout on silver, maybe
16:47
Speaker 5: back to as low as sixty or even fifty dollars
16:50
Speaker 5: this year, and the van of resumption of the uptrend.
16:54
Speaker 5: What about gold, Let's take a look at gold and
16:56
Speaker 5: see what we have here. So if we look at gold,
16:59
Speaker 5: we have gold that is now pushing above this key level.
17:02
Speaker 5: Needless to say, the tariffs and the kind of the
17:04
Speaker 5: financial worry there that's been announced to ten percent for Greenland,
17:09
Speaker 5: that's definitely contributing.
17:11
Speaker 4: To the polishes here. Yeap.
17:13
Speaker 5: And basically what you can do is you see the
17:15
Speaker 5: same sort of parallel and gold. If I had to
17:18
Speaker 5: pick one of the medals right now, gold would be
17:20
Speaker 5: the one that I would choose because it still has
17:22
Speaker 5: upside to this level. Notice where that is. It's right
17:25
Speaker 5: around that five thousand dollars level. And so I do
17:28
Speaker 5: think there's one more push up in gold. I think
17:30
Speaker 5: silver might be the one, maybe it touches one hundred,
17:33
Speaker 5: but I'd be very scared about being in silver because
17:36
Speaker 5: of its massive corrective abilities here where it could really
17:39
Speaker 5: flush out in a short amount of time.
17:43
Speaker 1: Man, this is we have got some crazy past few
17:46
Speaker 1: months here. I think a lot of people there's been
17:48
Speaker 1: a lot of people I mean, of course we've been
17:49
Speaker 1: reporting on gold and silver, have had a handy anty
17:51
Speaker 1: checkman on many times kind of leading into that, and
17:54
Speaker 1: I would say six eight months ago it was still
17:57
Speaker 1: kind of a push get ready for what would be
17:59
Speaker 1: happening with these metal markets, which seems to be going
18:02
Speaker 1: in that direction. Copper though, here's a good one, Copper gone.
18:06
Speaker 1: This should stop everyone in their track. World's largest online bully,
18:10
Speaker 1: Understaying says, we're just out.
18:11
Speaker 3: You know.
18:11
Speaker 1: So you and I were talking pre show. You felt
18:15
Speaker 1: like copper had pretty much maxed out here? Do you
18:19
Speaker 1: hold that position right now? Would you not go into
18:21
Speaker 1: copper right now?
18:23
Speaker 5: Yeah? As of now, I wouldn't go into copper. And
18:25
Speaker 5: again it's had such a run effect. If we take
18:28
Speaker 5: a look at the chart here, look at the trend line,
18:30
Speaker 5: and Paul, you know, I'm more of a technician, so
18:32
Speaker 5: I'm really just looking at the charts to see, not
18:34
Speaker 5: so much on the sentiment or if they're out of.
18:36
Speaker 4: Copper and so forth.
18:38
Speaker 5: But very clearly we have this trend line that goes
18:40
Speaker 5: back to twenty twenty four. Notice where we hit it.
18:43
Speaker 5: In twenty twenty five we had the big correction and
18:45
Speaker 5: now we've run up into that level and slammed into
18:48
Speaker 5: it again. So for me, I have to respect that
18:51
Speaker 5: trend line of resistance. And I also think it's important
18:53
Speaker 5: to kind of understand that, you know, we take this
18:56
Speaker 5: and say, the latest CPI data showed muted in, but
19:00
Speaker 5: then you look at copper, then you look at silver,
19:03
Speaker 5: then you look at live cattle prices, and they're all
19:06
Speaker 5: surging to the upside. And what are the bear cases
19:08
Speaker 5: could be for the market, for the stock market that
19:11
Speaker 5: is later this year, is that inflation starts to roar
19:14
Speaker 5: back based on all the data points we're seeing here,
19:17
Speaker 5: And I think that is something the market's not factoring
19:19
Speaker 5: in and could hamper the FED cutting rates in the future,
19:21
Speaker 5: even with a new FED share.
19:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is well, it's very unusual times right now
19:28
Speaker 1: in the markets, and it's kind of this unusual nature
19:31
Speaker 1: that typically you see crypto running alongside what's happening in
19:34
Speaker 1: the S and P has not been the case. I
19:36
Speaker 1: think most of this has been centered around the Clarity Act.
19:40
Speaker 1: This of course, Eleanor Ta put this out that the
19:43
Speaker 1: White House is considering pulling its support for the Crypto
19:46
Speaker 1: Market Structure Bill entirely if coinbase doesn't come back to
19:49
Speaker 1: the table. We've been reporting on this a lot, and
19:52
Speaker 1: it does put I think the market and the crypto
19:56
Speaker 1: industry at odds, and there seems to be fact coming out.
20:00
Speaker 1: And I would say many people would say, let me
20:03
Speaker 1: ask you, do you think Trump and the administration sold
20:06
Speaker 1: out crypto based on these kind of statements?
20:09
Speaker 5: Oh, I mean, I certainly don't like to see those
20:11
Speaker 5: type of statements. And I think, you know, this is
20:15
Speaker 5: always the toughest thing, Right is, Like I did not
20:18
Speaker 5: like the Trump coin debut, Right, I think that set
20:20
Speaker 5: the tone for me. Is it seemed to me like
20:23
Speaker 5: a pump and a rug pull and stuff like that.
20:26
Speaker 5: And anytime someone uses crypto in a matter to get
20:29
Speaker 5: rich quick, and granted the president was already very very rich,
20:33
Speaker 5: but it certainly didn't come across as someone who really
20:35
Speaker 5: believed in the long term viability of crypto. And that
20:39
Speaker 5: makes me concerned about everything else. Is it all about
20:41
Speaker 5: just getting the deal done and getting some money in
20:43
Speaker 5: the pockets, or is there really what you and I want,
20:46
Speaker 5: which is the long term feasibility of crypto to thrive
20:49
Speaker 5: in any environment.
20:52
Speaker 3: Well, here's the thing.
20:53
Speaker 1: I am not happy with the White House right now,
20:55
Speaker 1: because if they're trying to put pressure on the industry,
20:57
Speaker 1: because they are fighting back for the bare minimum of
21:01
Speaker 1: what we have been asking and expecting in these laws yield.
21:06
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, guys, let's just call a space
21:09
Speaker 1: of space. This is bad banks doing bad bank behavior,
21:12
Speaker 1: like always going after your yield. And it's interesting that
21:17
Speaker 1: so many people came out and kind of got that
21:19
Speaker 1: thing delayed for a little bit. But now you have
21:20
Speaker 1: the White House saying, wait a minute, wait a minute,
21:23
Speaker 1: we need to get this through.
21:24
Speaker 3: I'm a little concerned with that overall.
21:27
Speaker 1: And I think we'll see if this plays out or
21:29
Speaker 1: if one side backs down, which could be really good
21:32
Speaker 1: for crypto. I think if this goes through, maybe this
21:35
Speaker 1: isn't priced d like a lot of people think it is.
21:38
Speaker 1: Let's get into token i's assets and token is securities.
21:43
Speaker 1: The New York Stock Extine now announcing development of a
21:45
Speaker 1: platform for trading on chain settlement of token is securities.
21:50
Speaker 1: All of this is happening real time. We're going to
21:52
Speaker 1: see twenty four to seven operations around this. What do
21:56
Speaker 1: you think about this? I mean, you've been trading for
21:58
Speaker 1: a long time, Gareth, did you ever think you would
22:01
Speaker 1: see something like this becomes become a thing.
22:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean until crypto probably not.
22:07
Speaker 5: But once crypto become twenty four to seven, right, it's
22:09
Speaker 5: just all of a sudden. It brings forward the idea
22:11
Speaker 5: that these exchanges, these the Nasdaq for instance, I mean,
22:15
Speaker 5: there's money to be made here, and if there's money
22:18
Speaker 5: to be made, they're generally going to be in favor,
22:20
Speaker 5: especially because it's all computerized at this point, right, It's
22:23
Speaker 5: there's no physical people that have to be there trading
22:26
Speaker 5: the stocks and creating liquidity, and so I think overall
22:29
Speaker 5: it's a good thing. It means I'll probably get less sleep,
22:32
Speaker 5: but at the same time, it gives the average investor
22:36
Speaker 5: the ability when something happens in China overnight, at least
22:39
Speaker 5: they're not stuck until the next day before they can exit.
22:42
Speaker 5: Because we know that the institutions can get out, give
22:45
Speaker 5: it to the people. Let the people make the same
22:47
Speaker 5: potential moves that the institutions can do.
22:50
Speaker 1: That's the most fabulous thing. And you look at Solana
22:53
Speaker 1: being one of the cornerstones of token is stocks.
22:56
Speaker 3: We've already seen the.
22:57
Speaker 1: Success of x stocks will probably see even more success
23:01
Speaker 1: as things start to really heat up. I think within
23:04
Speaker 1: trading around tokenized securities. When you look at Solana right now,
23:09
Speaker 1: because this is a popular token on our network, we
23:11
Speaker 1: have a lot of audience that follows this one. How
23:14
Speaker 1: would you play Solana right now?
23:16
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually bullish.
23:17
Speaker 5: I actually have a long position in Solana right now,
23:20
Speaker 5: and I'll tell you why. So it's had this little
23:21
Speaker 5: bit of a pullback here, But what I really like
23:24
Speaker 5: is this potential pattern formation in the charts, and I
23:26
Speaker 5: think we're going to actually create this inverse head and
23:29
Speaker 5: shoulders and start to break up again. It will have
23:32
Speaker 5: stops along the way, just like this recent pullback. It's
23:34
Speaker 5: not going to go straight up. But if there's one
23:37
Speaker 5: coin of the big players, the top five, let's say
23:39
Speaker 5: that I would be in right now, this is the
23:41
Speaker 5: one here, and I think again, you might have hit
23:43
Speaker 5: it right on the head with this tokenized security trading
23:46
Speaker 5: as being one of the big driving forces for Solana.
23:50
Speaker 5: So I am bullish on Solana here.
23:52
Speaker 3: Yeah.
23:52
Speaker 1: We had a chance to talk with a couple of
23:54
Speaker 1: traders last week and one of the narratives that I
23:56
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are missing. Everybody kind of
23:58
Speaker 1: thought Solana would not make its way on to Wall
24:01
Speaker 1: Street and now it is one of the darlings. I mean,
24:04
Speaker 1: obviously Ethereum is, but the fact that we're seeing Salona
24:07
Speaker 1: more engaged on this, I would agree with you. I
24:10
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be one to watch. Gareth, as usual,
24:12
Speaker 1: always love to have you on the show. Thank you
24:14
Speaker 1: so much for coming in today. It has been a
24:17
Speaker 1: good one. We're going to watch the markets very closely.
24:20
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for having me. Paul appreciate it.
24:29
Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
24:31
Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
24:35
Speaker 3: The link is in the description.