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Week 13 College Football Predictions for 19 More Games! 2025 · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's week thirteen. We've only got two weeks left of
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five college football season, so screw it.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Why don't we do nineteen more games on today's show.
• 0:11
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• 0:40
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  Speaker 3: than Santa Sac. On the twenty fourth at the ice rink,
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  Speaker 3: She's clutching the edge while my little one is lapping
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: us and Brown Thomas's spraying the perfumes around like air fresheners.
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  Speaker 3: her new face. Then it's Katsus and Wagamamma and Hansel
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  Speaker 3: and Grettel Panto at the Male Theater. Later I drop
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• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Welcome in Winning Cures Everything at College Football Podcast. I'm
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on the socials
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  Speaker 1: me that way as well, and I will certainly be
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  Speaker 1: responding to those first. It's five bucks a month, fifty
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: bucks for the year, and we've got a good community
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: going over there. We've got some interesting games, if not
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: great games going on this weekend, so let's not waste
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: a bunch of time. We've got nineteen games to discuss.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go quick. Let's get the game number one,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: all right. We start off Saturday morning, eleven am Central Time,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: God's Time Zone on Fox. Rutgers going to Ohio State.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Ohio State currently at thirty one and a half point
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: favorite at home fifty five and a half is our total.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: My projected stats spread has Ohio State by thirty point
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: seven to eight. Last four weeks has Ohio State by
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: twenty nine. My power rating has Ohio State by a
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: little less than twenty four points. So looking at the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: projected stats spread here, this is a do you want
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to name your score game? It opened at thirty two
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and a half, it's down to thirty one and a half. Rutgers,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: their offense has at least been really good. Ohio State's
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: offense can do whatever they want to. They're number two
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: in PPAP drive. Rutgers their offense is number twenty six
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: in PPAPRI drive. Not great at running the football, but
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: they are pretty good passing it. The issue there is
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: that Ohio State's secondary is really good, really good, number
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: one in passing explosiveness allowed. They are number one in
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per attempt, number seven in PPA allowed per pass.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And the weakness is the number thirty five in havoc great,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: which means they're not elite at getting after the quarterback.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: They're not elite at causing turnovers and whatnot. But you know,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Ruggers is number eighty two in havoc allowed. There's it
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter here this is kind of a joke. You
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: can name your score. I don't think Ohio State cares
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: about this game at all. They've got Michigan next week.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I think Ruggers can put up at least some points.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Ohio State should get a big lead and then coast
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: in the second half. I don't expect them to keep
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: their foot on the gas the entire time, and if
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: they're not already thinking about Michigan, that would be a problem.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So in this one, I'm gonna take Rutgers plus the
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: thirty one and a half on that. All right, Let's
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: move to game number two. This one to the ACC
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: eleven am Central time on ESPN, and the Hurricanes currently
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: number thirteen in the CFP rankings. Not too shabby. Miami
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: is seventeen and a half point road favorite total of
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. Of course, Virginia Tech just
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: announced that they have hired James Franklin, formerly of Penn State,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: to be their new head coach. This one opened at
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Miami minus sixteen and a half. My projected stat spread
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: has them favored by twenty point five to seven. My
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: power rating has Miami by seventeen and the last four
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: weeks numbers has Miami by twenty and a half, so
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: very interesting, very very interesting. Looking at the spread numbers,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech one and five against the at home so
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: far this season minus ten point eight. Miami has only
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: played two road games. They are minus six, but they
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: are one and one against the spread. This is the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: spot where you have got to got to put your
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: foot on the gas. Miami has two impress voters. They've
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: got to get back up there to where they are
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: being compared with, you know, a team like my, a
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: team like Notre Dame who they beat already. The defense
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: is fantastic. Virginia Tech is number one twenty nine in
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: takeaways per game. The thing that has killed Miami in
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: their two losses has been carson back turnovers. I don't
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: anticipate that this time. I think they're gonna come out
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: hair on fire. The defense, I believe is gonna play well.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: The number eight in defensive success rate, number thirty one
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: or sorry, number four in defensive ppa allowed per drive
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: that's predicted points added as far as points per scoring opportunity.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Miami's defense is number eight, Virginia Tech's offense is number
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: sixty and on the other side, Miami offense number nineteen,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Virginia tich number one twenty eight, so Virginia Tech can't
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: stop them from finishing drives either. This one could get ugly.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I wish it was still at seventeen, but I think
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: motivation is certainly on the cane side, so I will
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: take Miami minus seventeen and a half. All right, carrying on,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: we moved to the Big Ten again, and this is
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: a fun game, just a very very interesting game. Minnesota
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: heads two Northwestern, this one on the Big Ten network,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: eleven AM Central Time. Northwestern currently a three and a
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: half point home favorite total of forty and a half.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: It took them five turnovers. They were plus five in
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the turnover department against Michigan last week just to be
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: able to stay in that game, and they still lost
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: at the Horn on a field goal. But I still
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: think this Northwestern team is okay, right. The defense is
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: not great, the offense is not great. Theyre pretty good
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: at runing the football, which is what Minnesota defends best.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Minnesota not really good at anything
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: on offense. They do like to throw it a lot,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven in pass rate, but they're not good
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: at it. Number one sixteen in yards per attempt number
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: one oh six and QBR well in those metrics, Northwesterns
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: defense is number sixty four and yards allowed per attempt
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: number forty five and QBR allowed they're number fifty six
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: and passing explosiveness allowed. This these are two teams that
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: play really hard. They are super disciplined. Both are inside
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the top five and penalties per game Northwestern number sixty
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: six and turnover margin Minnesota number thirty eight. But they're
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: good at different things. Northwestern number forty three and takeaways
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: per game, Minnesota number eight and giveaways per game. Northwestern
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: number eighty six and giveaways or sorry ninety six and
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game, Minnesota number eighty five and takeaways per game.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Who can finish drives? That's the question. Minnesota sixty six.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Then points per scoring opportunity on offense, Northwestern's defense is
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: number twenty six. Northwestern's offense number one twenty four in
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity, Minnesota's defense is number ninety four.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So who is gonna be able to finish the drives here?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally sure. And let's look at which team
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: plays better at home versus on the road. Et cetera.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Minnesota zero and four against the spread on the road
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: minus sixteen, Northwestern five and one against the spread at
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: home plus eight point seven. Something like that can get
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: you on the margins. My power rating has Northwestern by four,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks has Northwestern minus nine, and I've
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: got Northwestern minus four point four to six on the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread. This thing was five and a half.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: It's come all the way down at three and a half. Yeah,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Northwestern needs this one to get to a bowl game.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I'll take the Purple Cats. Give me Northwestern minus three
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: and a half. All right, we moved to the big twelve.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Oh yes, Kansas heads two Iowa State. This is another
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: one of those where one team has already made a
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: bowl game or is already eligible for a bowl game.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Kansas needs one more win to get there. So right now,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Iowa State is a four to four and a half
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: point favorite, depending on the book. Total is fifty four
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: and a half to fifty five and a half. It's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: eleven am Central time on FS one. My projected stat
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: spread has Iowa State by four point six. My power
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: rating has Iowa State by three point four, and my
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: last four weeks has Iowa State minus eight point three seven.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: So this thing was i was three and a half,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: it's jumped up to four four and a half. Iowa
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: st eight at home, two two and one Kansas on
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: the road two and two Iowa State. For for as
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: much as we talk about that team six and five
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: or six five and one against the spread over the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: last two seasons, the home field advantage is not great, right,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: but they do play a little bit better at home.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: They do play a little bit better than expected. Plus
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: four point seven Kansas minus three against the spread on
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the road. Very interesting numbers there. Both of these teams
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: inside the top thirty one as far as penalties per game.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Both of them are outside the top fifty as far
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: as turnover margin. But again, you've got a team that
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: is good at not turning the ball over against the
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: team that is good at getting takeaways. Kansas number thirteen
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: and giveaways per game and Iowa State number forty three
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: in takeaways. Iowa State number seventy five and giveaways per game. Well,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Kansas can't force turnovers the number one oh seven in takeaways.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: What is that going to mean? Kansas better special teams
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: efficiency here? The Kansas defense is rough but this Iowa
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: State offense has certainly fallen off. They've lost multiple guys,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: some guys on defense as well, but defense is still
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: holding up, which makes sense for a John Heathcock defense
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: or heat Cock. Excuse me, I I never trust Iowa
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: State with these short spreads. Like maybe I'm crazy, but
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I think Kansas wants this one more. You look at
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: who can finish drives, et cetera, Like, Kansas isn't good
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: at finishing drives on offense, but Iowa State is terrible
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: at defending them on the other side. Iowa State or sorry, sorry,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: excuse me. Kansas terrible at defending drives, Iowa State not
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: good at finishing them on the other side. Kansas's offense
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: number thirty in points for scoring opportunity, I was State's
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: defense number nineteen. Who's gonna budge five factors rank Kansas
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: State is number twenty three. I was staying number thirty five.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I think Kansas might be just overall a little bit
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: better of a football team, and even though they're on
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the road, I think they'll hang within this number. I
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: think they could win the game outright, So four to
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: four and a half, it's crazy. I will take Kansas
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half on the road. Here, look
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: at me betting on these teams to make bowl games.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Somebody's going to lose. Somebody's going to lose in game
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: number five, Washington State at James Madison. Washington State has
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: traveled all over creation. I mean, just bananas. They put
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: a woman on Louisiana Tech last week, but James Madison
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: also just put a woman on app State that I mean,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: somebody call off the dogs, I mean, what are we doing?
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: That was gross? Absolutely gross. This thing opened at James
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Madison minus twelve and a half. It opened or it
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: got to thirteen and a half to fourteen depending on
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: the book. Total is forty two and a half on
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: this one. It's twelve pm Central Time on ESPN plus
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: for this, so you will have to have your streamer
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: for this one. James Madison. Last four weeks, I've gone
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: about seventeen and a half power rating. I've got them
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: a little less than ten. And as far as the
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: projected stats spread, I've got James Madison minus thirteen and
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: a half. James Madison is number fourteen in PPA margin.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: They are number one in defensive success rate allowed. I
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: mean every number for them is awesome except for penalties
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: per game. They're number one fourteen in that. Washington State
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: number one twenty five in turnover margin. James Madison is
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: not great at turnover at number sixty six, you know,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: number fifty six, and giveaways number sixty nine and takeaways.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Washington State cannot generate turnovers. I mean it's wild, really
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: really wild to think about as far as not allowing
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: teams to score. I mean, you get down in the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: red zone Washington State number fifteen in offensive red zone
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: conversion percentage when they have the ball, and their number
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: twenty seven in defensive red zone conversion percentage. But you
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: look at five factors rank James Madison number thirty four,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: number ninety nine for Washington State JMU four and one
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home, Washington State three and two
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: on the road. But I feel like they have caught
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: maybe it's just Virginia and Old miss, but they've caught
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: them in weird spots. I James Madison is in one
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: of those positions where you have to win convincingly. I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: don't think they want to blow out teams, but if
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: you want any chance of getting into the playoff, because
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: again the committee did not rank them again tonight. The
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: AP has them up at like twenty one. They were
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: not in the seat FP top twenty five, and that
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule is just going to kill them. Number
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: one nineteen in current strength to schedule, I think they
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: lay it on here. Washington State back traveling again, so
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: many miles on this team. They've already done way better
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: than you would have imagined. They are five and five
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: right now. They've got Oregon State at home next week
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to be able to get a win and go bowling,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: which would be a huge, huge accomplishment in Jimmy Rodgers
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: first season. But I don't think they get it done here.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Best number I can get is James Madison minus thirteen
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, that's the direction I'm going give
• 15:44
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• 17:37
  Speaker 1: number six, we move to the Big twelve. Baylor is
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: heading to Arizona this one at twelve pm Central time
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: noon on TNT, and Arizona right now is six and
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: a half to seven point favorite, depending on the book
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: total of sixty two and a half. On this one,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: it opened Arizona minus five and a half. It has
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: of course jumped up. My projected stats has Arizona by nine.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Arizona minus seven. My last four
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: weeks has Arizona minus eighteen. And Baylor has not been
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: playing well. I think that might be putting it mildly.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: They are five and five. This is a team that
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: I would imagine really would like to make a Bowl game.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Dave Randa got himself off the hot seat last year.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: This year, nobody has said anything, But man, this isn't
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: the market that you want to be looking for a coach,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: so he might be safe, but man, they had a
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: lot of hype coming into the year, and the defense,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: which is a Randam side of the ball, has not
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: been good. Number one oh two in defensive success rate allowed,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: number one fifteen and rushing success allowed. Now, part of
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: that could be who they have had to face, but regardless,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: number eighty ppa allowed per drive, and I mean, they're
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: just bad at everything. As far as stopping the run,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Arizona they don't run it a ton, number ninety seven
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: in rush rate, but teams are running on Arizona over
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the defensive snaps that they have
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: to defend. They are number one twenty in yards allowed
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: per rush, number one fifteen, rushing success allowed, number one
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: twenty two in offensive line yards allowed, and Arizona is
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: better than them by far in all of those metrics.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: On top of that, Arizona can throw the football some
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: number thirty seven in QBR. Noah Fafida is still a
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: pretty good quarterback, especially when they keep them clean. And
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Baylor's number one twenty four in HAVOC. On the other side,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: what a shame, What a shame. The thing that Baylor
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: does best, the thing they want to do all the time.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: They throw the ball almost fifty nine percent of the time.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Number nine in pass rate. Arizona is number five in
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per attempt, number three in QBR allowed. They
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: are number seven in have it created. They are number
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: twenty five in hassing explosiveness allowed, Number four in passing
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. They defend what Baylor wants to do,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: maybe better than anybody in the Big twelve other than
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I guess Texas Tech, but good gracious. Five factors rank
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona number thirty, Baylor number seventy seven. Arizona is four
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread at home plus six point nine,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Baylor one and three against the spread away from home
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: minus four point one. I think that they just had
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: the number wrong to start with. All of my numbers
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: say to take Arizona, especially at less than a touchdown.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: I think some people just have a difficult time trusting
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: this team after what we saw last year. But this
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: is a good football team. Seven and three straight up
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: right now. They got a real chance to be a
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: nine win football team. They got Arizona State next week.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: But I think the I think they're focused here and
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: I will take Arizona minus six and a half at home,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna move us to the AA. I guess
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the AC, the American Conference. I think they took out
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: the athletic for whatever reason. Regardless, two pm Central Time
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: on ESPN Plus, you got South Florida, who just took
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: a devastating loss at Navy last week. They are going
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: to Birmingham. They're gonna take on the UAB Blazers, who
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: I foolishly, foolishly wagered on last week. Not wagered, but
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: picked on the show. Just dumb usf is favored by
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: twenty one and a half here on the road total
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: of sixty nine and a half. My numbers like UAB
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: again for whatever reason, and I can't figure it out.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know how they continue to be propped up.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: I guess it's the offense. I mean, UAB number fifty
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: two in offensive successfully excuse me, number forty four in
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: ppaper drive. They're number fifty seven in PPA per play,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: and there weren't a lot of plays. I mean, there
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: are number forty two in pace of play. But man,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: they just don't seem to get it done. Yeah, I
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: mean this is it's nuts, absolutely nuts. Okay. My projected
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: stat spread has South Florida minus eighteen point seven. My
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: power rating has South Florida minus sixteen point two. In
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: my last four weeks has South Florida minus seventeen. So
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: it's not like the Bulls have been great by any
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: stretch of the imagination. And the losses that they've taken
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: have only been two good teams, Navy Memphis Miami. Navy
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: and Memphis were both by three points on the road.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I mean they South Florida is two and three against
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the spread on the road, but they did absolutely wallop
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: North Texas. So what does that mean? UAB number one
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: thirty and five factors rank South Florida's number twenty nine.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: I mean this UAB defense is a debacle, absolute debacle.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: The total in this is sixty nine and a half.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Now my total, my totals are always wrong on these
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: G five games. I've got to mess with that in
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: the offseason. My total on this is fifty six points
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: seventy five. I might be looking at a South Florida
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: team total over as opposed to trying to bet the spread,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: but I I look at this UAB one and four
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home, Like, I just the only
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: time they covered is when they beat Memphis, and that
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: was coming off of bye week. You fired your coach,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: you completely changed, like overhauled everything, and Memphis quarterback got hurt.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, other than that, we've seen nothing out of
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: UAB to show me that they can cover a number.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: So this one will just make it easy. Give me
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: South Florida minus the twenty one and a half. I
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about laying it. I think I kind
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: of like the team total over more. But yeah, I'll
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: I'll tak South Florida. We make picks on this show,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's what we're doing. South Florida minus twenty
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: one and a half. Game number eight. Back over to
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: the Big ten and we've got Michigan State going to
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Iowa this one two thirty pm Central time, God's time
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Zone on FS one, and right now, Iowa is a
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: sixteen and a half to seventeen point favorite, depending on
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: the book. The total is forty two and a half.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: And none of my numbers have this thing. I mean,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: it's insane. Michigan State, like people really thought that they
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: would have a chance against Penn State last week. This
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Iowa team is better than Penn State, especially at home.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Good gracious. My projected stat spread here has Iowa by
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: twenty My power rating has Iowa minus seventeen point seven.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks has Iowa minus twenty five. And
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: the offense is starting to come along for Iowa, number
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: seventy seven in PPA per drive. They're not great at
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: throwing the football, but you know, I think we've all
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: kind of come to expect that from them. But I
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: do still kind of like their passing attack even against
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Michigan State. This Michigan State defense is bad. I mean,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: they are just bad. But Iowa can run the football
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: number thirty seven in PPA Prier Rush, Michigan State's defense
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: number one twelve. Iowa was number twenty nine in points
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: for scoring opportunity Michigan State's defense number ninety nine, So
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Iowa is going to be able to finish drives against
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: this defense. On the other side, Michigan State's offense not good,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: not good number eighty two and PPA Prier Pass number
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: eighty five and PPA per rush. I was number twenty
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: nine and number thirty two in those two On defense
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: and points for scoring opportunity, Michigan State a little bit
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: better number seventy eight, but Iowa's number forty five and
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity, and that's going against Oregon
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: and USC and you know, Penn State, whatever Indiana. You know.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: This is Iowa has played real teams. Anytime Michigan State
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: plays real teams, they get demolished. I mean it's rough, Iowa.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: I mean five factors rank, they are way up there
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: in five factors rank. Some looks off of that. I'll
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: have to check into that, but I've got on number
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: three in five factors rank right now. Michigan State have
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: got number one oh eight. The one o eight makes
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: a little more sense. Man, this is crazy, absolutely insane
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: to look at these numbers. You gotta go Iowa here.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, Iowa is currently six and four straight up.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: They're four and two against the spread at home. Michigan
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: State is four against the spread on the road, but
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: it's plus two point five and some of the numbers
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: have just been outlandish. If I can get it, and
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: right now I can, if I can get it at
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: sixteen and a half, and Kyle Hunter has always told
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: me that's a low total double digit spread. You take
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: the dog hits it like a sixty percent clip, but
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: that does still mean that there's almost forty percent that
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: do cover, and I think this might be one of them.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: I don't see Michigan State being able to score here.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I will take Iowa minus sixteen and a half, taking
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of favorites. Taken a lot of favorites. All
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Right to the ACC for game number nine, two thirty
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: pm Central Time on the ACC Network. Duke in North Carolina,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: the Battle of Tobacco Road, excuse me, or the Battle
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: for Tobacco Road, whatever you want to call it. Normally,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: that's a basketball thing. Here. You got Manny d Is
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: going up against Bill Belichick. This is interesting, Manny Diaz
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: not holding up his end of the defensive bargain. Number
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: one twenty three and PPA allowed per drive on defense.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: And they are terrible against the pass. Lucky for them,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is atrocious passing the football. I mean they
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: are really really bad. Number one twenty eight in passing explosiveness,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven in PPA per pass, number one
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: sixteen in yards per passe attempt. Duke can at least
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: somewhat stop the run. They can slow you down, but
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: they can't stop the pass. On the other side. The
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: North Carolina defense is coming along. They look all right,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: But I mean Duke a number twenty six in yards
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: per passe attempt, number nineteen in QBR, North Carolina's number
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: forty four and number fifty seven in those Duke number
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: thirty in pass success right in North Carolina number fifty.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: I think. I think Duke is going to be able
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: to throw the football on North Carolina. The issue is
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: can they hold on to it right? Because Duke has
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: had several of these games where they've given the ball
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: away a little much. They're number fifty six and giveaways
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: per game their biggest culprit. They are number one twenty
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: nine in fumbles lost per rushing attempt. North Carolina's defense
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: is number forty seven and fumbles gained per rushing attempt defended.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: So can Duke hold on to the football? We shall see?
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: We shall see. So this Duke offense going up against
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: North Carolina's pretty good defense, a terrible abysmal North Carolina
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: offense going up against a terrible Duke defense. What are
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: we going to get here? Duke is three and two
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: against the spread on the road North Carolina? Or sorry?
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Is that right? Yes? On the road Carolina two and
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: three against the spread at home. I think this ends
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the Bowl hopes for North Carolina. Duke did just suffer
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: a devastating loss against Virginia last week, but they are
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: still in contention and have a bunch of different tie
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: breakers they can get them to the ACC Championship game.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Even though they are five and five. It's pretty insane.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: They need like one more team to lose, or two
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: teams to lose, whatever, and it's not crazy to think
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: that they could happen. So six and a half, I
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: don't think it's enough. My projected stat spread on this
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: has Duke minus four point twenty six. My power rating
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: has Duke minus four point six. My last four weeks
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: has North Carolina favorite. Here, I'm going against that. I
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: don't trust North Carolina. They bit me last week. I
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: thought they were going to hang with Wake Forest. I
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: was incorrect. This week, you know gona catch me doing that.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I will take the Blue Devils Blue levels as another favorite.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: So Duke minus six and a half. Good gracious to
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: the AAC. We go this one two thirty pm Central
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Time on ESPN Plus. Again you're gonna need your streamer,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: and we got an AAC contender in East Carolina. They
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: are favored on the road at UTSA East Carolina minus
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: two and a half total sixty two and a half.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and look at these two teams home
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: and away. East Carolina three zero and one plus fifteen
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: point nine against the spread on the road, UTSA three
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread at home plus fifteen point three.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: UTSA is a different beast at home. This number is
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: kind of dead on. My projected stat spread has East
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Carolina minus two point seven. My power rating has the
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: East Carerolna by one. My last four weeks has East
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Carolina minus three point nine. The only issue that I'm
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: seeing is that Utsa's defense cannot stop the pass, and
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: boy is that Caden Howser kid good throwing it number
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: thirty seven in yards per attempt, number forty seven in
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: QBR Utsa's defense number one fourteen and number one seventeen.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: As far as running the football, UTSA can stop that
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: number twenty six and rushing success allowed number thirty two
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: in rushing success for East Carolina's offense. And East Carolina
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: runs the ball almost fifty three percent of the time.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: Big problem here is who is going to be able
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: to finish drives. So East Carolina number fifty six in
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity, utsa's defense number one thirty three.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: On the other side, UTSA number sixty seven in points
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. East Carolina number eighteen on defense. This
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: East Carolina team, with the three losses that they've got
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: on the season, they've only got one loss in conference,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: and this team their number ninety four. In current strength
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: of schedule, UTSA is number sixty five that could play
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: into it. I think that November air gets a little
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: more thick. It's a little bit harder to breathe. We
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: talked about this before. I think we talked about it
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: with South Carolina Texas at M last week. It's just
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit more difficult. UTSA not playing for a
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: whole lot here. They are five and five. They gotta
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: get to a bowl game. East Carolina has not been
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: in this position in a long long time. I mean,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: you went out, you were probably going to the AAC
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: title game. I think UTSA catches them. I'm gonna bet
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: big on the Alamo Bowl here or the Alamo Dome,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: not the Bowl. Excuse me, the Alamo Dome gets it on.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Give me UTSA it was three and a half, it's
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: down to two and a half. I'll even roll with
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: the two and a half. Give me utsa plus two
• 34:08
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• 35:45
  Speaker 1: If you like these spreadsheets, of course you can check
• 35:47
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• 35:54
  Speaker 1: five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year. I'm
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: going to be doing them all the way through the playoff,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: all through the ball season, all that kind of stuff,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: and you get my official plays, you get more random
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: stat sheets, all that kind of stuff over there, and
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: you're helping me out. Let's be honest, that's what this
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: is about. Uh yeah, I don't ask you to do
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: anything as far as paying for the show or whatever else.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: I mean that is very simple. Just subscribe to the
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• 36:20
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• 36:23
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• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Back to the AAC and we are talking about another
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: title contender. Two Lane is heading two Temple, this one
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: at two forty five pm Eastern no Central, excuse me,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: two forty five pm Central God's time zone on ESPNU
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: and two Lane is headed to Temple. Tu Lane is
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: a seven and a half to eight and a half
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: point favorite, depending on the book. Total is fifty six
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: and a half on this and Temple K. C. Keeler
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: has been doing some things. They have been pretty good
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: in spots this year. Two Lane has not played very
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: well on the road. They are two and three against
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: the spread. Probably should not have won that game last
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: week against FAU if you're just looking at success rate
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: and whatnot, but they found a way to get it done.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: But they are two and three against the spread minus
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: ten point two. Good Old Temple three and two against
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: the spread at home plus point one. So Temple is
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: slightly better at home. Two Lane slightly worse on the road.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: My projected stat spread has two Lane by three. My
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: power rating has two Lane minus four. My last four
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: weeks has two Lane minus fifteen point four to one.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: If you only watched the Memphis game, you would believe
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: that two lane is a pretty good team as far
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: as a P four team. They looked fantastic, especially that
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: first half. If you watch the second half, it's a
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: little questionable. You watch the FAU game, you watch the
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: East Carolina game, you watch there's multiple games this year
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: where TWU lane has not looked very good, which is
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: surprising considering they're one of the more talented G five
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: teams out there. Temple plays way above their head. Defense
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: is not great. Offense is okay. They're not great at
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: running the football, one thing that TU Lane has to
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: look out for. They are number one oh four in
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: yours allowed per pass attempt, number one oh six and
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: QBR allowed two lanes sixty three and twenty nine in
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: those metrics. On offense, TWU Lane is number twelve and
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: points for scoring opportunity two lanes defense is number seventy
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: five on that, so Temple number twelve at two lanes
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: seventy five when Temple has the football. The problem there
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: is that Temple is number one twenty one in scoring
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: opportunities per game. That's when you get a first down
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: inside the opponent forty and they don't get down there
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: very often, but when they do, they certainly capitalize. It
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: looks like both of these teams are inside the top
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: fifty as far as special teams is concerned. The Green
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Waves offense, I think is just gonna run the football
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: at will. Here the number eighty six and rush rate
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: or sorry, number eighty six and rushing success rate. They're
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: number thirty eight in yards per rush. Temple is number
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: one twenty in yards allowed per rush, number one twenty
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: four and rushing success allowed. So Tulane probably gonna be
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: able to do whatever they want to. This Temple team
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: is five and five. They need a win to get
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: to a bowl game. In K. C. Keeler's first season,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think anybody really expected that Temple is number
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: five in turnover margin tu lane number twenty seven to lane,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: number one twenty six in penalties per game, and they
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: are number sorry, Temple is number eighteen in penalties per game.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: So Temple the much more discipline football team. Both of
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: them are outside the top ninet eight as far as
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: pace of play, so this will be a slow game,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: especially if Tulane is going to run the football. I
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: think Temple can throw it on them a little bit,
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: make them uncomfortable. This number is kind of crazy, but again,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: it's November. You've got a team going on the road.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I don't see it with this two lane team now.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Would have surprised me if they decided to blow out Temple. No,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: because there's a massive talent advantage for the Green Wave.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: But I'm going the opposite way. I'll take Case Keeler
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: as a dog over time. That has just worked out really,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: really well for me. So Temple plus eight and a half.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: If this thing ends up hitting double digits, yeah, that'll
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: that'll end up being a bet for me. Of course,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: you can find out whether or not it does over
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: at Buy Me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Big twelve in Kansas State
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: is hosting Utah. Sorry, that's the other way around. Utah
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: is hosting Kansas State. Good gracious. The Wildcats get to
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: go on the road to Salt Lake, which has been
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: devastating for everybody not named Texas Tech. I mean these
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: numbers for Utah. Number four in PPA margin, number ten,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate, number thirteen defensive success rate. This team
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: is outrageous, and yet they've got two losses on the season.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Kansas State looking for a bowl game. They have not
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: played well. They are five and five. They are two
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread on the road plus three
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: point one Utah at home four and one against the
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: spread plus eleven point six. Man, just insane to think about.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Kansas State still pretty good on defense. Oh the number
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: on this by the way, Utah favored at home by
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. Total is fifty two and a
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: half to fifty three and a half. It's three pm
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN two. And this one. I mean
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: the Utah offense I think is going to be able
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: to move the football running it on this Kansas State defense.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Kansas State number nineteen in offensive line yards allowed, number
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: forty four and stuff for eight. Utah is number three
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: and number eight in those. On offense, I mean, Utah
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: is number three in PBA per rush, Kansas State is
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: number fifty five. That ain't good, you know, Kansas State
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: is still pretty good along the line of scrimmage. I
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: just I've been shocked at this team on the other
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: side of the ball, both of them, by the way,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: outside the top sixty is for special teams. Efficiency is concerned.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Turnover margin Utah number thirty eight. Kansas State is number eight,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: but they are number eighty three in giveaways per game,
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: number three in takeaways, so if Utah doesn't turn the
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: ball over, this could get tricky for the Wildcats. Penalties
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: per game Kansas State is number two, Utah is number
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: sixty four, and if we're looking at five factors, rank
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Utah number fifteen in Kansas State at number fifty five.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: I I'm not seeing it. Projected stat spread has Utah
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: by twenty and a half. Last four weeks has Utah
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: minus twenty nine. My power rating has Utah minus about fifteen.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: The projected stat spread, though, is much closer to where
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: the actual spread is. But it's going over Utah at home.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: I ain't betting against that right now, so I'll take
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: another big favorite. I will take Utah minus seventeen and
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: a half. I think they think they kind of laid
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the wood here. Game number thirteen to the big ten
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: we go Maryland hosting Michigan this one at three pm
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the Big Ten Network. Right now, Michigan
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: is a thirteen and a half to fourteen point road
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: favorite total of forty five and a half on this one,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: and Maryland once again has just completely fallen apart. They
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: started off four and oh they have lost six straight.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: They are decent in the first half against teams and
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: then they just completely fall apart in the second half.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's been it's been rough. They are three
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: and three against the spread at home, but minus one
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: point three average margin against the spread. Michigan one in
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: four against the spread on the road minus five point eight,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: so they rarely cover these two touchdown spreads for whatever reason.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Let's start off with this. The projected stat spread has
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Michigan by nine and a half. My power rating has
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Michigan by nine point one. The last four weeks has
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Michigan minus twenty two. Michigan gave away five turnovers last
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: week and still won the game at Northwestern. Did they
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: cover no, But all in all, this is still a
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: pretty good football team. Number twenty six and ppa margin.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: The number twenty six offensive success rate defense not great,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: especially against the pass. They are number sixty in defensive
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: success rate, number eighty nine in passing success allowed, So
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: that's not good. But this Maryland offense has been just
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: bad all year. They throw the ball almost fifty nine
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: percent of the time, but their number one twenty five
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt, number one twenty two in QBR,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: number ninety seven in passing explosiveness. They are number fifty
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: two in passing success rate, but Man Michigan number forty five.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: In passing explosiveness, they're number twenty seven and have it created. Yeah,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: And when Maryland tries to run the football, I mean
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: they are not gonna be able to do it against
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: this Michigan front at all. Michigan number twenty four in
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards allowed, Maryland is number one oh four.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: I just don't see them being able to do a
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: whole lot on offense. On the other side of the ball,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: the Maryland defense is okay, but they're not gonna be
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: able to stop this rushing attack number one oh eight
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: and offensive line yards allowed number one fourteen and stuff right,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Michigan is number twelve and number three in those on
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: offense Michigan number eighty nine, and points per scoring opportunity
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Maryland is number twenty nine. But the difference there is
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: that Michigan averages seven point four to four drives per
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: game that they get a scoring opportunity that's the first
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: down outside the opponent forty and Maryland number one oh
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: three in scoring opportunities allowed per game, so they give
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: up almost seven drives per game, so they are really
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: bad at that. Michigan could kick enough field goals in
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: this game to be able to cover thirteen and a half.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: I think Maryland has already said that. I mean, they've
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: already said that Locksley's coming back, but I don't know
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: if that like spruces them up. I don't know if
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: Maryland plays better at home or whether I should trust Michigan.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: I would trustee the one of these teams. Michigan laying
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: points is terrifying. I mean just terrifying, especially the week
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: before the Ohio State game. I will look at it
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: this way. I don't think they care at all about
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: this game, and they could still end up covering the
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: spread because I think they'll just run it. But I
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: think they're going to be very focused on Ohio State
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: next week. Even though they don't cover spreads very much
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: on the road. They also don't cover them at home either. So, yeah,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna do here is we're gonna take Maryland
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: plus the fourteen and just hope that this thing ends
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: like twenty to seven. Would you could totally see with
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: this Michigan team, like they're not gonna do anything crazy,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna get anybody hurt. They are folks on
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: the game next week, I'll take Maryland plus fourteen. All right,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: We're gonna stay in the Big ten. This one had
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: all the promise, like they booked this at the end
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: of the season for a reason. This was gonna be
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: a big one. Nebraska going to Penn State six pm
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Central on NBC. Penn State right now favored by nine
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: and a half total of forty three and a half
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: to forty four and a half. Take a drink, make
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: sure I'm ready. Penn State is number forty three and
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: PPA margin Nebraska is number thirty seven. Nebraska cannot stop
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: the run. That is what Penn State does best, and
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: it's what they do the most. They run it almost
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the time. They number thirty one
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush. Nebraska's defensive line number one twenty
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: two in PPA allowed per rush. Nebraska is pretty good
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: against the pass. The problem is that Penn State is
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: not going to do that very often, especially with a
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: young quarterback. Now. As far as points per scoring opportunity,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Penn State number thirty two in points per scoring opportunity Nebraska.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Their defense is number seventy four. Penn State surprisingly number
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: five in special teams efficiency, and it has not been
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: able to get them very many wins. Penn State is
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: still alive to make a bowl game, and you saw
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: that on full display when they absolutely took Michigan State
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: behind the woodshed last week. Both of these teams inside
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the top fifty one as far as turnover margin, both
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: of them inside the top twelve. As far as penalties
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: per game, surprising, surprising this Nebraska offense. You can't really
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: look at these numbers anymore because Dylan Rala is out
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. The backup quarterback looked
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: okay against UCLA. I just think that's going to be
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: difficult to duplicate against Penn State, especially in Happy Valley,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: when this team is motivated they would like to get
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: to a bowl game. I think that Penn State is
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: actually playing all right and nine and a half. You know,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: my projected stats spread has been State minus five point
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: four four. Power raiding has been State minus seven point four.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: Last four weeks has Nebraska minus five and a half.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: But I ain't trusting it because Dylan Rail is not there.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: I this is the first real road environment for Nebraska's quarterback.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: I'll take Penn State here. I think they got some
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: things cooking. I think Nebraska is not very good without Raola.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Give me the Nitney Lions minus nine and a half
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: at home, and we are going to State in the
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Big or sorry, the Big Ten. You can tell us
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: late on Tuesday night, can't you good? Gracious? All right?
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Game fifteen Illinois at Wisconsin, This one six thirty pm
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the Big Ten network. Illinois favored by
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to eight and a half. Here
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: total of forty and a half on this one that
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: has come down from the forty two and a half.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Illinois was a nine and a half point favorite. That
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: has come down. Very interesting spot. Wisconsin has been playing better.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: My projected stat spread has Illinois by eight and a half.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Power rating Illinois by eight. Last four weeks has Illinois
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: by nine point one six and yet the numbers coming
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: down because Wisconsin has been playing pretty good. There are
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: two and four against the spread at home, Illinois two
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread on the road, both of
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: them worse against the expect or worse against the expected
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: number by at least a touchdown. In this spot. However,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin has been playing better as of late. The defense
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: is pretty good against the run, but my god, are
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: they terrible against the pass? I mean, holy mackerel. This
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: team is this This could be a route because even
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: though it's at Camp Randle and Wisconsin has been playing better,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: they are still really bad against the past. Number one
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: twenty one and have it created. They are number one
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: eighteen in PBA allowed for pass, Illinois number fourteen. For
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, people are just totally buying in on this
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: new birth and new life and this youth movement and whatnot.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Illinois is number four in special team sufficiency, Wisconsin number
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: one eleven. Wisconsin doesn't do really anything good and they
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: can't score points. And if you can't score points, you're
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: not gonna be able to keep up with all Meyer
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: because they're going to score. They are number eighteen in
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity, number forty six and scoring opportunities
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: per game Wisconsin's defense number forty two in points per
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity allowed number eighty one and scoring opportunity, and
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: he's allowed per game. On the other side, Wisconsin wine
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: thirty five and points per scoring opportunity even though Illinois
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: is number one twenty two there, this Illinois defense is
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: not good. Wisconsin makes it look difficult against error. So
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying the hype. I'm not buying the renaissance here.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: I will say Illinois, I think that they are still
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: fully bought in here. I think they continue the winning ways.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: The best number I can get is seven and a half.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: I'm going against the market. Give me Illinois minus seven
• 53:34
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• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Game number sixteen and let me go and tell you
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel like the video. Jump in the
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: comments check out buying me a Coffee dot com slash
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: winning Cures. But game number sixteen ACC Network, six thirty
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: pm Central time. CAL is going to Stanford, and what
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: an interesting spot here. This thing was Cow minus two
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's out to three three and a
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: half in some spots, total of forty nine and a
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: half on this one. My projected stats for it has
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Cal by two point nine, so almost three. My power
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: rating has Cal minus one point seven, and man the
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: last four weeks it would have Stanford favored by two.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: It's very very intriguing, uh, looking at this. Stanford is
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: number one twenty six in PPA margin, CAL number eighty
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: nine and Cal is already six and four. They got
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: a chance to hit seven wins here and then next
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: week a chance to hit eight. I mean, it's just
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: it's remarkable. When Cal is on offense, they cannot run
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: the football and they don't try to run the football.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: They're number one twenty eight in rush rate. They rush
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: it only about forty percent of the time. That's about
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: the only thing that Stanford is good at defending throwing
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: the football. It's hit or miss, right. They throw it
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: almost sixty percent of the time, which I would too
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: if I had JKS number sixty in passing success rate,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven in passing explosiveness, Stanford is number one hundred,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: number one twelve in those so not great. I think
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: Cal is going to have success throwing the football. On
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: the other side, Stanford can't run it. They try and
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: throw it. They are number twenty eight in pass rate,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: but their number one ten in QBR. Cole's defense is
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven, the number eighty in yards per pass attempt.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: Cole's defense is number twenty five, the number one sixteen
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: and havoc allowed, and Cal's defense is number forty three.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Points for scoring opportunity, Stanford number one twenty six. Col's
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: defense number fifty two. This is a justin Wilcox defense
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: is what it is. Stanford number one hundred. In special
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: team sufficiency, Cal is number seventy eight. Five factors rank
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Cal number ninety two, Stanford number one twenty five. I'm
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: not sure why the number is spitting out less than three,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: but I think that Cal is the significantly better team here.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: Stanford has been playing better as of late. They still
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: cannot score and that could be a problem against Brian
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Harson and Nikrolovich's defense. Sorry offense, especially with jks so yes,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: you can still get a three. I would roll with it.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Give me cal minus three in this one. Back to
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: the AAC where we got another title contender, North Texas,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: another one of those teams that's ranked up there, and
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: you know their current strength of schedule is bad, but
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: you get some pretty good wins in the AAC, especially
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: if you win the title game. So North Texas going
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: to Rice and this one again six point thirty pm
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: Central time on esbn U in North Texas is favored
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: by eighteen and a half total fifty five and a
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: half on this one. My numbers for whatever reason, are
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: never high enough on North Texas, never high enough. Last
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: four weeks, I would have North Texas favored by eleven
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: point thirty four. Power rating would have North Texas minus
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: twelve point nine. Projected stats spread would have North Texas
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: minus fourteen point five to five. This thing was seventeen
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's gone up to eighteen and a half.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: North Texas, their offense is just incredible overall, number eight
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate, they are number nine in ppa
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: per drive, they are number three in points per scoring opportunity.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: You look at offensive D zone conversion percentage, they're number
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: seven in offensive zone touchdown rate. They are number one
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: in offensive rid zone appearances per game, number twelve in
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: conversion percentage they are and the reason for that. They're
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: number sixty six in special teams efficiency. So they're not
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: great at hitting the field goals. But man, they do
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: everything right on offense. And this Rice defense is okay,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: but they're not great. They're better at stopping the run.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: The issue for them is that North Texas is elite
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: throwing the football. That Mestermaker kid is unbelievable. North Texas
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: number thirty eight and five factors. Rice is number one eleven.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: And when Rice is on offense, I mean they run
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the ball almost seventy three percent of the time. This
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: is a triple attack. The problem is that they are
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: number eighty three in yards per rush number one fourteen
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: and rushing success rate number one oh five, in offensive
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: line yards number ninety seven, and stuff rate allowed. Like,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: they're not great at it, and even though North Texas
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: is not good at defending it, Rice can still get
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: in their own way. I've gotten burned on this North
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Texas team so many times. They are three to one
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: against the spread on the road this year plus three
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: point eight Rice at home, two and four against the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: spread minus three point four. They actually cover better when
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: they're on the road. So Rice is still fighting for
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: a bowl game, Yes, but this is not the team
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: to be doing that against. They are not good at
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: stopping anybody. I mean they are this late in the season.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: They are giving up one hundred percent of red zone conversions.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: They haven't gotten a team to miss a field goal.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: They have not gotten a turnover in the red zone.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: That nothing. They're number one twenty nine in takeaways per game.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: North Texas is number three in takeaways per game. This
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: could be a problem, and I've got to go with Rice.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've got to go with the North Texas here.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: This team scores so much that it's just easier to
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: handle spreads that are not up to the retouchdowns, especially
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: against your competition. And this Rice team is not that talented,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: and North Texas never takes their foot off the gas
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: like ever. So I'll go with another favorite here. I
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: will take North Texas minus eighteen and a half to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: the Big twelve at seven pm Central time, God's time
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Zone on the ESPN two and Arizona State traveling over
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: to Boulder against a Colorado team that sometimes it looks
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: like they've just quit. Sometimes it doesn't I don't know
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: what to make of this team. Arizona State's favored by
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: six and a half to seven, depending on the book,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: total is forty eight and a half to forty nine.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Again depending on whichever book you get it at Arizona
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: State is they've got to entice Sam Levitt to stay
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: because apparently he is looking at the transfer portal. And
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: as goofy as this is, they've got a pretty easy
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: road to finish the season. If BYU gets upset again,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, if they went out, would have tie breakers
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: and would go to the Big twelve championship game over
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: BYU over Utah. How does it? None of it makes sense.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: None of it makes sense to me at all. I mean,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: it's just insane to look at. This team is seven
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: and three, They are two and two against the spread.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: Away from home, they are three and two. Sorry, excuse me.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: Colorado is three and two and one against the spread
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: at home minus two point six. So neither team is
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: great when they're put in this situation. This is what
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about. Like, Arizona State has kind of hovered
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: in the seventies and PBA margin all year, now there
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: are number thirty in current strength of schedule. How this
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: team beat Texas Tech, I will never know. It makes
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: no sense to me, and yet do it to It
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: is what it is. They are Apparently Jordan Tyson is
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: going to be back this week or there's a chance
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: of that. And on top of that, like it's Sam
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: levit't still hurt. You didn't have a Jeff Simms game
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: at any point. I mean, this dude was the king
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: of the turnovers and yet he's done pretty good job
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: this year. They're number ten in interceptions thrown per pass attempt.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Even if they've tried to throw interceptions, it'd be hard
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: for Colorado to get them their number one oh five,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: interceptions gained per pass attempt number seventy six, and fumbles
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: gained per rushing attempt defended. And Arizona State just doesn't
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over much number thirteen and giveaways per game.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: Colorado was number one oh one in turnover marg and
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: overall Arizona State number thirty eight. Arizona State is number
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: one thirty five, and penalties per game Colorado number fifty seven.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: As far as being able to finish drives, this Arizona
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: State offense number one oh six in finishing drives, but
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: there are number twenty in scoring opportunities per game. Colorado's
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: defense number ninety one in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Colorado fifty seventh then points per
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, but they are number one thirty one in
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game. I you know, Arizona State is
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: number seventy seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity, but
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: there are number forty four in defensive red zone touchdown rate,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: so they can defend like they can keep you out
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: of the end zone onant you get down there. Five
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: factors rank this Arizona State team is number eighty three.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just just bonkers to look at. I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: look at this and I am perplexed because, yeah, Arizona
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: State's going on the road, and yeah, all of these
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: numbers are lower. The projected stat spread has Arizona State
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: minus four point one six. My power rating has Arizona
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: State a little less than five. Last four weeks Arizona
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: State minus seventeen point seven to seven. Dillingham has figured
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: out how to use Jeff Simms, and that should terrify everybody.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is Arizona State's defense is really good.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: They're number fourteen and have it created in Colorado's offense
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: is number one thirty one and have it allowed even
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: at home. There's a chance that Arizona State just boat
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: races this bunch. So with this thing being you know,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: it went from eight and a half down to six
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: and a half, like it's moving the opposite direction, I'm
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: gonna trust Arizona State here. They've got a legit chance
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: to go play for the Big twelve title again, so
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna catch them sleepwalking anything like that.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: Even with this being like a back twelve after dark game,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: I still believe that Arizona State is gonna get this done.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: So I will take another favorite that's terrifying. Give me
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: Arizona State minus six and a half there. And then finally,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: our last game of the week, at least the one
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: that we are going to cover, Utah State heads two
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Fresno State nine thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: on CBS Sports Network. Fresno is a two and a
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: half to three point favorite, depending on the book. Total
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: is fifty and a half to fifty one and a
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: half depending on the book. Utah State. This is strength
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: on strength, weakness on weakness, right, Utah State number forty
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: two and PPA per drive on offense. Fresno is number
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: forty eight on defense, Fresne's offense number one oh seven,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: and PBA per drive on offense Utah State's defense number
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: one oh three. Who breaks first? That's the question here.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: My stats projected spread has Fresno by three point seven.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Fresno by three point three. Last four
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: weeks has Fresno by three point seventy five. But look
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: at the strength of scheduling, Utah State number sixty three,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: nonumber one fifteen. You look at five factors, number seventy
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: and number seventy one. You look at I mean, both
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: of these teams cover in this spot. Utah State is
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: minus three point six, but they are three and two.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: Fresno is three and two and they are plus five
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: point three. Bronco Mendenhall, needing a win to get to
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: a bowl game, almost got it at UNLV last week.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: Now they're on the road against Fresno and a Fresno
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: team that cannot score, but a Fresno team that plays
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: pretty good defense. Fresno is already Bowl eligible I'm curious
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: about this passing attack for Utah State, what they're going
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: to look like against Fresne's defense. Points for scoring opportunity,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: Utah State is number eight, Fresno's defense is number seventy three.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: Both of these, by the way, number ninety eight, number
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: one ten in special teams efficiencies are not good. There.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: Turnover march in Utah State is number twenty seven, Fresno
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: number sixty two. Fresno turns the ball over a lot,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: a lot penalties per game. They're both outside the top
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: eighty five. Utah stag is number one, twenty one Forresne
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: eighty eight. And this defense for Utah State is rough.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: But man, that Fresne offense just doesn't appear that they
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: can do a whole lot of anything. There are number
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: seventy six in points per game, twenty five point nine
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: points per game. This has the feel of Broncos, big
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: bad boys getting it done. So the fact that I've
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: got a three at this point, I know that all
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: of my numbers have Fresno by a little over three.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: I trust that Utah State offense to be able to
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: score on Fresno, even with as bad as Utah States
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: defenses I don't necessarcessarily feel the same about Fresno's offense,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: and the turnover variants could certainly go Utah State's way.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Aggies. Give me Bronco Minen Hall.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: I trust him more as the coach in this situation.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: I think Utah State gets done, so I will take
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: the three there. Utah State plus three on the road.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: All right, let's recap it here. We got nineteen of them.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Rutgers plus thirty one and a half. Excuse me, Miami
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: plus No minus seventeen and a half. Boy, I didn't
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: write very well. Dida Miami minus seventeen and a half,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: Northwestern minus three and a half, Kansas plus four and
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: a half, James Madison minus thirteen and a half, Arizona
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: minus six and a half, South Florida minus twenty one
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: and a half, Iowa minus sixteen and a half, Duke
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: minus six and a half, Utsa plus two and a half,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Temple plus eight and a half, Utah minus seventeen and
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: a half, Maryland plus fourteen, Penn State minus nine and
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: a half, Illinois minus seven and a half, Cow minus three,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: North Texas minus eighteen and a half, Arizona State minus
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: six and a half in Utah State plus three. That
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: does not feel good. I will tell you that that's
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of favorites, a whole lot of favorites. But
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking about bad football teams here, So
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: if we're betting on good football teams against bad football teams,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: I don't feel so bad about that, d'aal. Let me
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: know in the comments, tell me what you think. All right,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: let's go wrap things up. It's almost midnight. I still
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: gotta edit this thing. We got one more week of
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: the regular season after this, and that is going to
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: wrap it up. Take care of yourself. No no, no good
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: at betting CFB dot com. Subscribe to the channel, like
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: the video and jump of the comments. I would certainly
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: appreciate that. With that said, take care of yourself, take
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: care of each other. God bless college football and hopefully
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment
• 1:12:10
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