Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Transcript

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
Speaker 1: Fall systems, clear the lift.
0:36
Speaker 2: What is going on? Everybody? Happy Thursday night? We are
0:39
Speaker 2: talking some UFC fight nights. Yeah, that's all it is
0:42
Speaker 2: pay per view. Last week, shout out Peter Yan like
0:45
Speaker 2: he's watching the show. I'm shouting him out. But man,
0:47
Speaker 2: what insane performance. Just an absolute masterclass against Morale last week.
0:52
Speaker 2: I couldn't have been any more wrong. Yeah, the bank
0:54
Speaker 2: account suffered from it. My account dwindled because I didn't
1:00
Speaker 2: play nearly as much on as I should have. I
1:01
Speaker 2: did get a little thanks the sheets always brings up
1:05
Speaker 2: the numbers. The game theory, it is a percent chance
1:08
Speaker 2: to win. That's even if it's minus four fifteen plus
1:11
Speaker 2: two eighty five or whatever it is, still has some chance.
1:14
Speaker 2: And you definitely need a purely on last week. But
1:16
Speaker 2: we got thirteen fights this week. It was twelve that
1:19
Speaker 2: we got King Green, Lance Gibson at a Tuesday. That
1:21
Speaker 2: is absolutely huge. I thought it was a pretty mediocre
1:24
Speaker 2: card for DFS with twelve thirteen makes it a lot better.
1:28
Speaker 2: Real life. We're talking, I don't know, a couple fun,
1:31
Speaker 2: couple hilarious fights top to bottom by no means a
1:34
Speaker 2: great card, but plenty of money to be made. Last
1:36
Speaker 2: card of the year. Want to shut out everyone we's
1:39
Speaker 2: been with us throughout the whole year. We are off
1:41
Speaker 2: for about a month. I think January twenty fourth or
1:43
Speaker 2: something like that. The UFC will be back. They're moving
1:46
Speaker 2: to Paramount, so I think they're like doing one extra
1:49
Speaker 2: week off or something like that. So last show of
1:52
Speaker 2: the year. Hope everybody out there has a very merried Christmas,
1:55
Speaker 2: happy New Year, wishing that early we will be back
1:58
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six. Big Marlen, time to bring you in,
2:01
Speaker 2: Big Marley. How you doing, What are your thoughts on
2:03
Speaker 2: this card? And yeah, anything else you want to talk about.
2:07
Speaker 3: I'm good. I mean, I feel like they could have
2:09
Speaker 3: gave us a better card to close the year, ideally
2:12
Speaker 3: a pay per view, but it's a good DFS card.
2:15
Speaker 3: I think if we keep all thirteen fights because it's tough, man.
2:18
Speaker 3: I've tried to build a couple hand built lineups and
2:22
Speaker 3: I just have landed on nothing. Sean Tucker gets a
2:26
Speaker 3: freaking touchdown and I have Bucky and everything believable.
2:29
Speaker 2: I need a Baker, But I.
2:33
Speaker 3: Think I'm just gonna m and me this card and
2:34
Speaker 3: just kinda find as many fades as I can I
2:38
Speaker 3: know I got one that'll be somewhat home later. But
2:42
Speaker 3: then maybe throw like fifty lineups in and just hope
2:44
Speaker 3: you get lucky, come around a tight core and hope
2:48
Speaker 3: that it hits.
2:49
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you guys know by now. I'm definitely
2:51
Speaker 2: an MMM over single entry person. I think it's a
2:53
Speaker 2: solid MM card. I think a variety of fighters in
2:56
Speaker 2: the upper tier that have big upside. And I think
2:58
Speaker 2: there's plenty of live dogs on this card as well,
3:01
Speaker 2: as you can see right here. Put these odds up
3:03
Speaker 2: on Monday. The biggest favorite on the card minus four hundred.
3:06
Speaker 2: The next biggest favorite after that around the minus three
3:08
Speaker 2: hundred rains. So we like to see that go collect
3:11
Speaker 2: y Sen Bryanton here, love to see that as well.
3:14
Speaker 2: Everyone hanging out, we do appreciate it. Like button subscribe
3:17
Speaker 2: button helps us out a ton, and again we'd love
3:19
Speaker 2: to have you at the Nation. You can see about
3:21
Speaker 2: five days for nineteen dollars using the coach chip nineteen
3:24
Speaker 2: get in for the last UFC card. Again, prize pools
3:27
Speaker 2: already out, they're very big. Get some NFL content, NBA
3:30
Speaker 2: and NHL as well. We would love to have you.
3:34
Speaker 2: I say, we take a bottom to top, any broad
3:36
Speaker 2: slate or anything you want to you want to say
3:38
Speaker 2: before we go fight by fight.
3:40
Speaker 3: Now, I'm ready. I usually try to do ownership before
3:42
Speaker 3: we start the show, but I'm running blind here. Maybe
3:44
Speaker 3: I'll try and do something as we go, but I
3:46
Speaker 3: got nothing so far. So this is my first look.
3:49
Speaker 3: I've gone over the car, but my first real DFS
3:53
Speaker 3: looks today sounds good.
3:55
Speaker 2: And then the one thing I wanted to mention, so
3:56
Speaker 2: this King green Landskipson fight again. I mentioned it was
4:00
Speaker 2: at a late add on Tuesday. The fight will be
4:03
Speaker 2: I believe it's after or it's before Kennedy. I believe
4:06
Speaker 2: it's somewhere right in this five six range five six seven.
4:09
Speaker 2: It's just because I had everything already typed out. Yeah,
4:13
Speaker 2: come on, I didn't want you to do that. You
4:15
Speaker 2: guys have kids hooped him all that. I have never
4:18
Speaker 2: said that my life, never will never have done the motions,
4:21
Speaker 2: and I thought about it in the back of my head,
4:23
Speaker 2: but they're all independent to each other. We're gonna talk
4:27
Speaker 2: like the stone bottom the top. But because all the
4:29
Speaker 2: numbers and stuff were in it just it made my
4:32
Speaker 2: life a lot easier. All right, let's go Bot to
4:34
Speaker 2: the top, even though it's not the first fight. Bobby
4:37
Speaker 2: Green minus or King Green, excuse me the name change.
4:40
Speaker 2: King Green minus two ten taken on lads, Gibson Junior
4:43
Speaker 2: plus one eighty minus one sixty for this fight to finish,
4:47
Speaker 2: Green plus one seventy inside the distance, Gibson plus two
4:50
Speaker 2: fifteen but sit out to me. I'll throw it to
4:52
Speaker 2: you right away. But Gibson plus two to fifteen inside
4:55
Speaker 2: the distance and plus one eighty money line. That's a
4:58
Speaker 2: really good inside the distance prop. All of his win
5:01
Speaker 2: equity is pretty much by finish, is what they're saying.
5:04
Speaker 2: I have interest a seventy two hundred just for that
5:06
Speaker 2: fact alone. Ken Green, he throws a lot of volume.
5:10
Speaker 2: He has that late finish upside death by a thousand cuts.
5:13
Speaker 2: He's shown an upside in the past, and I think
5:15
Speaker 2: he has to be relatively low owned at a nine
5:18
Speaker 2: K price tag. So yeah, this is the fight I'm
5:20
Speaker 2: going to be targeting again. It's not the first fight
5:22
Speaker 2: of the night, but minus one sixty to finish, I'll
5:24
Speaker 2: be having some of both sides, what about you?
5:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'll have some of both sides too,
5:30
Speaker 3: And it's definitely interesting that Gibson's inside the distance line
5:34
Speaker 3: will be that close to his money line because it
5:35
Speaker 3: didn't really strike He didn't strike me as that type
5:38
Speaker 3: of fighter. I think he is pretty decent everywhere. I
5:41
Speaker 3: could see him beating Bobby Green if he used his wrestling.
5:46
Speaker 3: His offense is offensive, striking solid. I do think he
5:49
Speaker 3: is more of a striker than a wrestler too, which
5:52
Speaker 3: is not great for him in this matchup, but he
5:54
Speaker 3: can put it all together well. He's got power in
5:56
Speaker 3: his hands. He's just a little too low volume for me.
6:00
Speaker 3: If it is a striking match, I think that's where
6:02
Speaker 3: Bobby is gonna shine. He's gonna double up Green on
6:05
Speaker 3: Gibson on the feet, is what I'm thinking, And I
6:08
Speaker 3: mean he can really get going and maybe even triple
6:11
Speaker 3: him up late if he starts feeling himself possible late
6:15
Speaker 3: knockout puts him on, puts him on the optimal as well.
6:18
Speaker 3: But he's gonna be a pivot from cop for me
6:21
Speaker 3: and then Gibson at seventy two hundred, I think I'll
6:23
Speaker 3: be overweight on him and just hope that he can
6:26
Speaker 3: come through because in my mind, like what's this fight
6:28
Speaker 3: do for King Green? Like I just don't see how
6:31
Speaker 3: he gets hyped up for this fight. A win really
6:34
Speaker 3: does nothing for his career other than gets him back
6:36
Speaker 3: in the win column. But Gibson, this changes his life.
6:40
Speaker 3: So I think I'm gonna be more so on the underdog.
6:43
Speaker 3: But my pick to win was Bobby Green because I
6:46
Speaker 3: do think this mainly stays on the feet and he
6:48
Speaker 3: probably is gonna land, you know, almost twice as many strikes.
6:53
Speaker 3: I'm thinking on the feet, which will get it done.
6:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean when Bobby Green gets in flow state,
6:58
Speaker 2: the hands coming from the heads, just pulling him out
7:00
Speaker 2: there volume fer days, busting up the nose like he's
7:03
Speaker 2: a fun fighter. He can be thirty nine years old,
7:05
Speaker 2: as you see on the stone, though, I'm worried about
7:07
Speaker 2: the chin, which I think has a lot to do
7:09
Speaker 2: with the reason Gibson's inside the distance prop so close
7:12
Speaker 2: to the money line. I think, like kind of like
7:14
Speaker 2: you said, I think they struggle to see Gibson winning
7:16
Speaker 2: a decision due to the volume factor, and if he
7:19
Speaker 2: does win, he knock knocks screened down or something like that.
7:23
Speaker 2: One thing I wanted to mention Bobby Greens king Green's
7:27
Speaker 2: last seven wins for DFS one twenty one, one, twenty eight,
7:31
Speaker 2: one oh seven, one o five one eleven, ninety seven
7:34
Speaker 2: one ten for someone that doesn't wrestle, those are very
7:37
Speaker 2: very impressive numbers. And again the ownership has to be
7:40
Speaker 2: in check. With menel Cott ninety two hundred, we have
7:43
Speaker 2: another nine K, seventy two hundred dollars fighter, a couple
7:46
Speaker 2: heavyweight favorites that are gonna get ownership. So yeah, it's
7:49
Speaker 2: a fight. I'm gonna be playing both sides to kick
7:52
Speaker 2: it off, even though again it's not to kick it off,
7:54
Speaker 2: all right, to kick it off. Actually, the first fight
7:57
Speaker 2: of the card, we have a woman going at it,
8:01
Speaker 2: Teresa Blada Jamie Lynn Horth Blada minus one whereas that
8:06
Speaker 2: minus one sixty, Well, let me refresh this. That is
8:09
Speaker 2: some line movements, decent bit, let's see minus one thirty
8:15
Speaker 2: nine on Monday now minus one sixty, okay, interesting, Jamie
8:19
Speaker 2: Lyn Horth plus one forty on the way back, plus
8:21
Speaker 2: two to fifteen. For this fight to finish, we have
8:24
Speaker 2: bladea plus three hundred inside the distance fourth plus six hundred.
8:28
Speaker 2: You can see a big age gap eleven years for Blada.
8:31
Speaker 2: She is the younger fighter. She hasn't fought for like
8:33
Speaker 2: two years though two and a half years, which I
8:35
Speaker 2: don't love to see. At the end of the day,
8:37
Speaker 2: this is the most likely fight to go the distance.
8:40
Speaker 2: You're a parlay and getting a coin flip. Actually, I
8:42
Speaker 2: can't even say coin flip fight anymore. Played is a
8:44
Speaker 2: decent favor, but a fight that's supposed to go the
8:47
Speaker 2: distance pretty heavily favored to do. So there's some wrestling upside,
8:51
Speaker 2: maybe on the Blada side. I don't know. I'm not
8:53
Speaker 2: really playing this fight. I think the mid tier is
8:55
Speaker 2: very weak actually, outside of that Kennedy Marcus fight that
8:58
Speaker 2: we'll get too. So things for me, what about you?
9:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's my least favorite fight on the card to
9:05
Speaker 3: watch and for DFS, so I'm gonna try to fade it.
9:08
Speaker 3: But my preferred play is gonna be Bladea. She's just
9:11
Speaker 3: eleven years younger, taller, longer, stronger, and I think the
9:15
Speaker 3: better wrestler as well. Orth probably has the striking edge here,
9:19
Speaker 3: but a striking match isn't gonna really cut it, I
9:21
Speaker 3: don't think, especially if she's gonna be taken down a
9:23
Speaker 3: couple times throughout the fight, which I do expect, so
9:26
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get a low score from either side,
9:28
Speaker 3: but Blada is the one with more upside, probably won't
9:31
Speaker 3: have much ownership, so I'm fine throwing her into lineups,
9:34
Speaker 3: but I agree mid range kind of sucks this week.
9:37
Speaker 2: Okay, so Blada, you like, what would you set her
9:39
Speaker 2: takedown propat or like can she get five takedowns in
9:42
Speaker 2: this spot? Like? Can she score ninety?
9:44
Speaker 3: I said it at like one and a half two
9:46
Speaker 3: and a half, but I feel like she's like two
9:49
Speaker 3: to four range.
9:51
Speaker 2: Okay, four takedown, seven minutes of control time ninety eighty eight.
9:56
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's still.
9:58
Speaker 3: Probably not gonna get it there, and I feel like
10:00
Speaker 3: she's not real active either when she does get the
10:03
Speaker 3: fight to the ground. But I think if she wins
10:06
Speaker 3: this fight, she has to wrestle, and I mean that's
10:08
Speaker 3: always good for DFS. So I'm fine throwing her in,
10:12
Speaker 3: but definitely not somebody I want to target, And since
10:17
Speaker 3: she is like the second cheapest as a favorite, I
10:20
Speaker 3: just feel like I won't even need to get to her.
10:22
Speaker 3: I'd rather go with the stars and scripts approach. Yeah.
10:24
Speaker 2: No, I agree with you as well. This is a
10:26
Speaker 2: fight fade for me with Blada having to wrestle, who
10:30
Speaker 2: knows how she'll look after two years. Like, if I
10:32
Speaker 2: were to pick a side, it would be the Blada
10:33
Speaker 2: side as well. But if you're only making a handful
10:35
Speaker 2: of teams, that's a fight fade for us. Both one
10:39
Speaker 2: that's definitely not a fight fade. Is this next one?
10:41
Speaker 2: Arguably one of the best fights on the card. Garrimmt
10:44
Speaker 2: Patt taking on Alan frye minus one seventy five Pat
10:47
Speaker 2: plus one fifty is Fry minus six hundred for this
10:50
Speaker 2: fight to finish, the second most likely on the card,
10:52
Speaker 2: Pat minus won twenty five inside the distance Fry plus
10:55
Speaker 2: one seventy Pat and round one plus one fifty five
10:59
Speaker 2: Fry in round one plus three twenty five. I mean,
11:02
Speaker 2: what a slot fest like this is kind of the
11:04
Speaker 2: hilarious fights on Talking pre show. No clue what to expect,
11:08
Speaker 2: both guys young in their pro career, both making their
11:11
Speaker 2: UFC debut. I couldn't even find Alan Fry's reach, Like
11:16
Speaker 2: I'm expecting very gross, but hey, very gross in real
11:19
Speaker 2: life can mean very good in dfs under one and
11:22
Speaker 2: a half, pretty heavily favored. The pricing on both sides
11:24
Speaker 2: is great if you want to leave salary you can
11:27
Speaker 2: build any COP team drop Cop down to Pat. You're
11:29
Speaker 2: not giving up any upside. I could argue you're actually
11:32
Speaker 2: getting more upsides. So yeah, great fight, you have it
11:35
Speaker 2: a five star. I couldn't agree more.
11:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, great DFS fight. Might not be a great fight
11:40
Speaker 3: in real life. I just don't know what to expect
11:43
Speaker 3: from this one. There's not a lot of film on
11:44
Speaker 3: either guy and I did. I did this on Sunday
11:49
Speaker 3: and now on Thursday. I don't remember Fry at all,
11:52
Speaker 3: so I'm kind of running blind on this Fry guy.
11:55
Speaker 3: But in my notes, I just said that I think
11:57
Speaker 3: Pat looks more of the part he like. Even his
12:00
Speaker 3: body looks more of the part. He looks like a fighter,
12:03
Speaker 3: and I think his striking looks better. It looks more
12:05
Speaker 3: powerful as well, So I'm picking him to get the knockout.
12:08
Speaker 3: I'll be overweight to Pat for sure, but you just
12:12
Speaker 3: kind of have to be overweight to both sides on
12:14
Speaker 3: this fight. Not go all in, but go heavy on
12:16
Speaker 3: this fight and hope that the casuals more so avoid
12:19
Speaker 3: it because they don't know who either one is. But
12:22
Speaker 3: this is going to be my possible favorite fight on
12:24
Speaker 3: the card to target because I like unknowns and we
12:27
Speaker 3: have a minus six to fifty inside the distance.
12:31
Speaker 2: Absolutely couldn't agree anymore. We'll have another very very similar
12:34
Speaker 2: fight coming up, also heavyweight fight minus six fifty to finish,
12:38
Speaker 2: but the pricings are better for Pat and Fry. Sign
12:41
Speaker 2: me up on both sides. I do not care which
12:43
Speaker 2: one I get more of. I just know I want
12:45
Speaker 2: a bunch of both. We'll keep roll another mid tier
12:48
Speaker 2: fight in the woman's division that is the second most
12:51
Speaker 2: likely to go the distance Juana Santo's minus one twenty
12:53
Speaker 2: six Melissa Crodon plus one oh six plus one eighty.
12:57
Speaker 2: For this fight to finish, we have Santos plus three
13:00
Speaker 2: sixty inside the distance, Crodon plus three sixty inside the distance. Yeah,
13:05
Speaker 2: I mean a very similar fight. I think kind of
13:07
Speaker 2: the other one. I do think it's gonna be Santo's
13:09
Speaker 2: trying to wrestle Crodon, trying to keep it on the feet.
13:12
Speaker 2: But that being said, though, the eight hundred dollars difference
13:14
Speaker 2: still leads me to the striker and Croton as my
13:17
Speaker 2: preferred play. I don't love it, no, but she's eight
13:20
Speaker 2: hundred dollars cheaper. It's pretty much a coin flip. Money's
13:23
Speaker 2: been coming in on her again. If no dogs win,
13:26
Speaker 2: one dog wins, maybe her scoring eighties enough in the decision.
13:30
Speaker 2: I don't like it though, but yeah, give me the
13:33
Speaker 2: savings with her. Are you gonna be playing any Santos?
13:35
Speaker 2: I see you have it a three star every which way.
13:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure what I'm gonna do with this one. Really.
13:40
Speaker 3: I do think that it is kind of a binary
13:42
Speaker 3: fight where they're both well rounded. But Santos should have
13:45
Speaker 3: the wrestling grappling edge, Croton should have the striking edge,
13:48
Speaker 3: and if either one of them has their way, I
13:50
Speaker 3: think they can put up a pretty good score here.
13:52
Speaker 3: If Santos gets takedowns in all three rounds, she's possible
13:56
Speaker 3: to live for herself too. But even in the decision,
13:59
Speaker 3: I think her wrestling to get there. If she is wrestling,
14:02
Speaker 3: my issue would be that the wrestling's not working out,
14:04
Speaker 3: she doesn't go for it as much, and it ends
14:06
Speaker 3: up being a striking match. Then I don't want any Santos.
14:10
Speaker 3: And Croden would be the play for sure. I think
14:12
Speaker 3: she could be high volume. She could crack Santos as well,
14:17
Speaker 3: but yeah, I just don't feel good about it. If
14:19
Speaker 3: Santos is getting takedowns and then Croton's winning on the feet,
14:22
Speaker 3: and then it's a back and forth fight. Probably don't
14:24
Speaker 3: get a big score for me either one, so it's
14:26
Speaker 3: definitely closer to a two star than it is a
14:29
Speaker 3: four star for me. But rabit three's all the way around,
14:31
Speaker 3: because I could see it going any which way in
14:35
Speaker 3: this fight, So I don't want to exee the one out.
14:37
Speaker 3: I don't want to be heavy on either one. But
14:39
Speaker 3: I'm fine with this one being more of my sixth
14:43
Speaker 3: spot in a handbeilt lineup.
14:45
Speaker 2: I'm getting a little more like, what are the chances
14:49
Speaker 2: that just domination from Santos through wrestling? She can get
14:51
Speaker 2: four takedowns ten minutes of control time, and you just
14:55
Speaker 2: you need her.
14:57
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I just don't know how good
14:59
Speaker 3: Croton is. Crodon looks like she could be pretty legit,
15:02
Speaker 3: So I just don't know that Santos is that good
15:05
Speaker 3: on the ground. But I also Croton's thirty four years
15:09
Speaker 3: old now at this point, so maybe she's not that legit.
15:11
Speaker 3: I just don't know, man.
15:12
Speaker 2: This is no fight for your dollar, like, there's no doubt.
15:14
Speaker 2: So I wanted to mention a couple of these fights
15:16
Speaker 2: Crodon like so she has one fight in the UFC.
15:19
Speaker 2: Usually there's when there's nothing in these two columns, it's
15:22
Speaker 2: because it's ther UFC debut. Lately, though, I think I'm like,
15:26
Speaker 2: I'm gonna avoid putting even if they only have one
15:28
Speaker 2: UFC fight, because it shows she averages what like six
15:32
Speaker 2: point eight one significant strikes per minute, two point oh
15:34
Speaker 2: six takedowns like that just doesn't paint any picture, so
15:37
Speaker 2: I don't even want to put it up there. But
15:39
Speaker 2: she has fought in the UFC before, so I did
15:41
Speaker 2: want to make that as a note. Croton still my
15:44
Speaker 2: preferred play. Maybe I'll I'll open up my player pool
15:48
Speaker 2: a little bit and keep Santos in and just cap
15:50
Speaker 2: her initially and then be fine if I get zero,
15:52
Speaker 2: But I'm in regardless. It's not a fight I really
15:55
Speaker 2: like much of. It's just the mid tier is not
15:57
Speaker 2: very good at all. Now they're very similar. Spot is
16:01
Speaker 2: this one? It looks like two guys making their UFC debut.
16:04
Speaker 2: But Sean Sheriff has made his UFC debut. He only
16:07
Speaker 2: did fight once, that was a loss to Junior Tafa
16:10
Speaker 2: last year in October. Now he finds himself is a
16:13
Speaker 2: minus two thirty five or excuse me, Steve Stephen Aspalin
16:17
Speaker 2: finds himself is a minus two thirty favorite making his
16:19
Speaker 2: UFC debut taking on Shawn Cherriff, who is plus one
16:22
Speaker 2: ninety five minus six hundred for this fight to finish
16:26
Speaker 2: Asplin minus one eighty five inside the distance Sheriff plus
16:29
Speaker 2: two sixty five Asplin round one plus one twenty five
16:32
Speaker 2: inside the distance asplain the best inside the distance and
16:36
Speaker 2: money line prop or excuse me, best inside the distance
16:39
Speaker 2: and round one prop on the slate under one and
16:42
Speaker 2: a half juice in this one to minus one eighty.
16:45
Speaker 2: It's literally copy and paste that Pat Frye fight. In
16:48
Speaker 2: my opinion, it might be gross. Not sure how how
16:52
Speaker 2: much of a career these guys have in the UFC,
16:54
Speaker 2: but two pretty bad guys going at it a fight
16:57
Speaker 2: very heavily favored to finish. He's going to be throwing bombs.
17:01
Speaker 2: Someone should fall. Yeah. I want a lot of a
17:03
Speaker 2: lot of both sides of this one. What about you?
17:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I want a lot of the Aspalin side. I think.
17:09
Speaker 3: I mean this Sean Sheriff just does not look good
17:12
Speaker 3: when you only get one takedown and like a minute
17:14
Speaker 3: and a half of control time against junior Tafa like
17:17
Speaker 3: you probably just not cut out to be in the UFC.
17:19
Speaker 3: But I do think that this line was close. I
17:22
Speaker 3: also don't think the Aspaland is good. It's more of
17:24
Speaker 3: a fade on Sheriff, But at this line I thought
17:27
Speaker 3: was closer than I expected because of how bad I
17:30
Speaker 3: think that Sheriff is, So I do want some of him,
17:33
Speaker 3: for sure. You can't fade him when we have a
17:35
Speaker 3: minus six hundred inside the distance line and he is
17:37
Speaker 3: the one that would be looking to wrestle in this fight.
17:40
Speaker 3: He can also throw some early haymakers and some decent
17:45
Speaker 3: lay kicks early, but I just think he's gonna fall
17:47
Speaker 3: apart as the fight moves along, and then Aspalind I
17:51
Speaker 3: think could get more into it, just a little bit
17:53
Speaker 3: more crazy. The more he gets punched, the more he's
17:55
Speaker 3: gonna get a little wild, I think, and he's going
17:57
Speaker 3: to be throwing the heavier strikes. I think he is
18:00
Speaker 3: the better striker. I think he's more durable, So give
18:03
Speaker 3: me Asplin to buy an early knockout. He's gonna be
18:05
Speaker 3: one of my favorite plays on the slate, but I
18:08
Speaker 3: don't think he's very good in general, so it's not
18:11
Speaker 3: one that I really want to go all in on.
18:14
Speaker 3: It's just that this is a good fight to target
18:17
Speaker 3: and he's my pick to win it.
18:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see it being something like forty percent Asplin,
18:23
Speaker 2: though like sixteen percent Sheriff, and if we're looking at that,
18:27
Speaker 2: just the game theory on that if Sheriff wins, it
18:30
Speaker 2: should be almost I mean it's hard to see it
18:32
Speaker 2: not scoring. And then it's because under one and half
18:35
Speaker 2: favored so much. It's almost like an early knockout. And
18:38
Speaker 2: then Asplin scores very poorly, So you just have so
18:40
Speaker 2: much leverage and you can jump the field if a
18:43
Speaker 2: lot of chalk goes down. Again, That's why I play
18:45
Speaker 2: multiple lineups. I want to play a lot of Asplin
18:48
Speaker 2: for obvious reasons, but I definitely want some Sheriff for
18:50
Speaker 2: leverage with very similar upside as well. Just a great
18:54
Speaker 2: fight to target. Those two sloppy heavyweight fights Pat Frye
18:57
Speaker 2: Asplin Sheriff who knows how to look and life I'm
19:00
Speaker 2: excited to see because it could be funny. But yeah,
19:03
Speaker 2: for DFS, it's two of the best fights to target
19:05
Speaker 2: on the card. We'll keep it rolling to another UFC debut,
19:11
Speaker 2: yaslov Amosa taken on Neil Magni Mosa minus four hundred,
19:16
Speaker 2: Magni plus three hundred minus one forty five for this
19:19
Speaker 2: fight to finish a most of plus one hundred inside
19:21
Speaker 2: the distance Magni plus five twenty five, so most of
19:25
Speaker 2: the highest priced fighter on the card the biggest favorite
19:28
Speaker 2: two hundred dollars more than the next highest price fighter
19:31
Speaker 2: in Minel cop You're the Neil Magni whisperer man, you
19:35
Speaker 2: call it. But he's a big dog and he finds it,
19:38
Speaker 2: finds a way to win most times. I'm always pretty
19:41
Speaker 2: much against him. He's definitely costing me money. I'm debating
19:44
Speaker 2: fading him again. It just feels like, why wouldn't most
19:47
Speaker 2: have not come out and wrestle and he should dominate
19:49
Speaker 2: on top. With that being said, Magni just finds ways
19:52
Speaker 2: to win. So do you think he does it again
19:55
Speaker 2: this week?
19:57
Speaker 3: No, I don't think he's gonna do it, but I'm
19:58
Speaker 3: not gonna fade him. I think he is to win
20:00
Speaker 3: this fight. I think he's the better striker. He's gonna
20:03
Speaker 3: have the better cardio for sure, and I just don't
20:05
Speaker 3: trust Mosta enough really for him to even be a
20:09
Speaker 3: minus four hundred favorite. If I had to bet this fight,
20:11
Speaker 3: I'd rather take Magni at you know, plus three hundreds.
20:15
Speaker 3: But I do feel confident that a Moosov is gonna
20:19
Speaker 3: come in here looking to wrestle heavily, like and he
20:22
Speaker 3: is a pretty relentless wrestler. When he wants to be two,
20:26
Speaker 3: he get a takedown, kind of let the guy get
20:28
Speaker 3: up every now and then, and then he'll go right
20:29
Speaker 3: back for the takedown immediately. And I like to see
20:32
Speaker 3: those kind of guys in the UFC. He's someone who
20:35
Speaker 3: could get ten takedowns in a UFC fight and score
20:38
Speaker 3: great in a decision, probably not against Magni, but he
20:42
Speaker 3: is going to have to wrestle heavily to win this fight,
20:44
Speaker 3: and I think he'll land, you know, three to six takedowns,
20:49
Speaker 3: two to six takedowns possibly, and do enough to win
20:52
Speaker 3: the first and the second round at least. So he's
20:55
Speaker 3: my pick to win. But if he doesn't win the
20:59
Speaker 3: wrestling in one of those two rounds, I feel like
21:01
Speaker 3: he is gonna slow down either way with his wrestling,
21:04
Speaker 3: Magne's not gonna slow down. I like Magne to have
21:07
Speaker 3: the overall striking edge, especially the later this fight goes
21:11
Speaker 3: and Magni slick off is back late to if a
21:14
Speaker 3: moslam does slow down, So lots of ways I think
21:17
Speaker 3: for Magne to win sixty eight hundred super cheap. He
21:20
Speaker 3: kind of lets you do whatever else you want with
21:21
Speaker 3: your lineup, especially if you're gonna get like roy Valle
21:23
Speaker 3: in there too, but not someone I'm looking to target
21:27
Speaker 3: because of Roy val But I'm definitely gonna play some Magnie.
21:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. I'm gonna play a lot of teams,
21:34
Speaker 2: probably like usual, so I'll get some Magni. If I
21:37
Speaker 2: was playing ten or less, I'm not sure I clicked
21:39
Speaker 2: the button. But again I've said that multiple times.
21:42
Speaker 3: I agree. Actually, if I was making ten or lasts,
21:43
Speaker 3: I'll probably not play a Magnie.
21:44
Speaker 2: Okay, that makes me feel a little better. Yeah, I
21:47
Speaker 2: just think of most of his success wrestling. Who knows
21:51
Speaker 2: though the Jake Matthews fight like Jake Matthews had him
21:54
Speaker 2: armbar round one. The raft just lets it go and
21:57
Speaker 2: Magnie gets his submission around three year. I don't know
21:59
Speaker 2: if Tko whatever, like he's just in some wild fights.
22:02
Speaker 2: Sometimes we'll fight for your dollar. He has good cardio,
22:05
Speaker 2: but I think a mostive wrestles and has success wrestling,
22:09
Speaker 2: probably wins a decision. I don't know finished decision. What
22:11
Speaker 2: I do know is I like to fight fade more
22:13
Speaker 2: than anything in this fight, though, with the most of
22:16
Speaker 2: ninety four hundred, like I think, there's plenty of upper
22:18
Speaker 2: tier fighters you can leave money, King Green, pat aspleind
22:24
Speaker 2: Gillian Robertson, like Manel Cop. I just think so many
22:27
Speaker 2: have a lot of upside up top. You can leave
22:29
Speaker 2: money pretty easily. If you go from zero dollars with
22:32
Speaker 2: a MOSA to leaving six hundred, you will definitely be different.
22:36
Speaker 2: Like to Robertson, You'll definitely be different and can eliminate
22:39
Speaker 2: some dupes. So y'all play a little mos of probably
22:42
Speaker 2: not much. MAYNI have plenty of fight fades. Next fight
22:46
Speaker 2: on the car this was supposed to be Jo Anderson,
22:48
Speaker 2: Brito and Melsic Bogdasarian. Out on Tuesday was Bognasarian in
22:53
Speaker 2: is Isaac Thompson. The nice thing is the odds are
22:57
Speaker 2: very close on both fights, the Meltic Brito fight and
23:00
Speaker 2: the Brito Thompson fight, so they just put Thompson right
23:03
Speaker 2: where Melsick was priced at seventy two hundred so no
23:06
Speaker 2: change there, which you like to see. As you see
23:09
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, though this line open minus three hundred. Now
23:12
Speaker 2: it's actually excuse me, it opened minus seven hundred. Immediately
23:16
Speaker 2: got a lot of buy on Thompson. Now all the
23:17
Speaker 2: way down to minus two eighteen plus one eighty eight,
23:21
Speaker 2: I see under a one and a half at plus
23:23
Speaker 2: one sixty one. That is the only prop I do see.
23:26
Speaker 2: But wow, what a wide opening line plus seven or
23:29
Speaker 2: minus seven hundred. Thompson gets slammed. You can see Thompson
23:33
Speaker 2: making his UFC debut only twenty three years old. Looks
23:37
Speaker 2: like he'll fight for your dollar. It looks like he's
23:39
Speaker 2: actually fought some solid competition, which you like to see.
23:42
Speaker 2: Brito is always live for an early finish. He's strong,
23:46
Speaker 2: he's powerful, he can wrestle. But nine k is a
23:48
Speaker 2: big price tag, So how do you view him compared
23:51
Speaker 2: to others in the upper tier? And then what about Thompson?
23:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I almost made this a two star because I
23:56
Speaker 3: really don't love Brito in this. He is strong, he's powerful,
24:02
Speaker 3: he could get a knockout. He could also use that
24:05
Speaker 3: power to wrestle, but he's not active enough for me
24:08
Speaker 3: for a nine K fighter. If he's not gonna get
24:10
Speaker 3: a finish, I just don't think he's gonna land like
24:12
Speaker 3: a six plus takedowns. He's more of a one to
24:14
Speaker 3: four type of takedowns. And then what do we have
24:17
Speaker 3: him on the feet land in two point four to
24:20
Speaker 3: eight strikes per minute? I mean, that's not great. It's
24:23
Speaker 3: good when you're getting knockdowns along the way. But I
24:25
Speaker 3: think Thompson is good. I think he's good everywhere. It's
24:28
Speaker 3: like he grew up fighting, so he's kind of got
24:31
Speaker 3: a full, well rounded MMA game. It's just that he's
24:35
Speaker 3: taking this fight on short notice against Brito, who is good,
24:39
Speaker 3: who's fought good UFC competition, been up there in the rankings,
24:43
Speaker 3: and I just think it's a little bit too much
24:44
Speaker 3: too soon. Where Brido, even though he's probably not gonna
24:48
Speaker 3: be higher on volume, I also don't think Thompson's a
24:51
Speaker 3: high volume striker either where he's gonna blow Brito away.
24:54
Speaker 3: So maybe Brito landing the higher or the harder shots
24:57
Speaker 3: can win him the minutes on the feet and then
25:00
Speaker 3: and the wrestling could go either way. But I think
25:01
Speaker 3: the strength of Brito and the submission grappling edge to
25:06
Speaker 3: Brito gives him the overall edge there too, so I'm
25:09
Speaker 3: picking him to win by decision. But at nine K
25:12
Speaker 3: I don't really want a Burrito decision on my lineups,
25:15
Speaker 3: I don't think, so it's more of a two star
25:17
Speaker 3: to me, and I might end up switching it to
25:19
Speaker 3: two star Burrito, four star Thompson. It's somewhere in between there,
25:23
Speaker 3: but overall not when I'm looking to target. It's more
25:26
Speaker 3: one where I'm okay getting either one of them into
25:28
Speaker 3: my lineup, and I might even switch it. Maybe Thompson's
25:31
Speaker 3: my preferred play of the two. It's just that I
25:33
Speaker 3: haven't really seen it yet for him to beat a
25:36
Speaker 3: guy like Brito. But I also don't think of that.
25:40
Speaker 3: It's clear that Brito is gonna beat him.
25:42
Speaker 2: Thompson's my preferred play for the eighteen hundred savings. It
25:45
Speaker 2: has to do with a lot of like I think
25:47
Speaker 2: the upper tier is so strong if under one and
25:50
Speaker 2: a half plus one sixty one, and I'm definitely gonna
25:52
Speaker 2: wait for his inside the distance prop the round one prop.
25:56
Speaker 2: But maybe I said his max at the round one prop,
25:59
Speaker 2: like hey, if he gets a second round finish, sure
26:01
Speaker 2: it can be enough. But it's almost like he would
26:03
Speaker 2: then need a second round, finished third round. I don't
26:05
Speaker 2: think he gets there again.
26:07
Speaker 3: So many we.
26:08
Speaker 2: Talked about King Green, Pat Aspalind, Julian Robertson, We're talking
26:12
Speaker 2: about cop like. There's definitely upside in the upper tier. Yeah,
26:17
Speaker 2: I just this Thompson guy looks solid to me, and
26:20
Speaker 2: I mean just the line movement alone minus seven hundred
26:22
Speaker 2: to minus two twelve that quickly. Yeah, I'm I prefer
26:26
Speaker 2: the Thompson side in the savings and I'll probably be
26:29
Speaker 2: underweight Brito. I do want to see Thompson's props though,
26:31
Speaker 2: I am waiting as you can see no props yet.
26:34
Speaker 2: This is why the inside the distance columns blank. But yeah,
26:38
Speaker 2: not a fight I love right now Thompson. I prefer play.
26:40
Speaker 2: If anything changes, I will put a note at the
26:43
Speaker 2: end in the slate plan, but you can find right
26:45
Speaker 2: here again. MMA slate plan, a bunch of MMA content projections,
26:49
Speaker 2: ownership core reports, slate plan, Big Marley's fight rankings, Tier
26:52
Speaker 2: rankings breaking down every tier. Also, do have an education
26:56
Speaker 2: video Big Marley and I did education MMA. Check it
27:00
Speaker 2: out if you are a ship in nation member, and
27:02
Speaker 2: again if you're not, you can get in as low
27:04
Speaker 2: as nineteen dollars using the coach ship nineteen five days
27:08
Speaker 2: for nineteen bucks. Height get a little early Christmas present
27:10
Speaker 2: for yourself. Maybe you'll bink and then you're free rolling
27:13
Speaker 2: for all the presents. So we'd love to have you
27:15
Speaker 2: get in the discord if you do join. Six fights left,
27:20
Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one. Julian Robertson minus two hundred,
27:22
Speaker 2: Amanda Lamos plus one seventy minus one fifty five for
27:26
Speaker 2: this fight to finish, Robertson plus one fifteen inside the
27:29
Speaker 2: distance Lamos plus three sixty five striker and Lamos versus
27:34
Speaker 2: the grappler and Robertson in a fight favored to finish.
27:37
Speaker 2: All that sounds pretty good. To make things even better.
27:40
Speaker 2: On Monday, this fight was minus one ten to finish.
27:43
Speaker 2: Now it's minus one fifty five. Robertson was or was
27:46
Speaker 2: plus one eighty five inside the distance now plus one fifteen.
27:51
Speaker 2: Robertson was minus one sixty three now minus two hundred.
27:55
Speaker 2: All that line movement is just pointing me to Robertson, Robertson, Robertson,
27:59
Speaker 2: and to make things even better, similar to King Green,
28:02
Speaker 2: if you want to hear her last handful of wins
28:04
Speaker 2: in the UFC five wins she has scored. Excuse hold on,
28:09
Speaker 2: it was her last DK scores from twenty seventeen. I
28:15
Speaker 2: don't even know. This might be eight. But every single
28:17
Speaker 2: win she said since twenty seventeen one oh seven, one hundred,
28:20
Speaker 2: one o two, one oh five, one oh five, ninety eight,
28:23
Speaker 2: one sixteen, ninety four, ninety two, one ten, one oh six,
28:27
Speaker 2: ninety six, ninety seven. That's pretty good. Now, there isn't
28:31
Speaker 2: like one ten too many one ten pluses, But at
28:34
Speaker 2: eighty eight hundred, would you take ninety five to one
28:37
Speaker 2: oh five is what I'll ask, because that's what she
28:39
Speaker 2: gets most times she wins.
28:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm playing her over cop all day long.
28:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
28:47
Speaker 3: I am going to pick her as my picked way.
28:48
Speaker 3: And it is a binary fight where she has to
28:50
Speaker 3: get the fight to the ground. But if she does,
28:52
Speaker 3: she could dominate this fight for all three rounds, or
28:56
Speaker 3: she could get a submission in any round. So I
28:59
Speaker 3: expect Roberts in the put up with good score, but
29:02
Speaker 3: she cannot strike with lamebos if she if she can't
29:04
Speaker 3: layd the takedowns, I think she's getting knocked out. So
29:07
Speaker 3: that's gonna be a good score for Lamos unless she
29:09
Speaker 3: gets dominated in the first two rounds and that knockout
29:12
Speaker 3: comes in around three. But I think it would be
29:14
Speaker 3: more so like it's just not happening and Lamemos knocks
29:17
Speaker 3: her out early. So I don't know that I want
29:20
Speaker 3: to be overweight to Lameos, but I'll get some exposure
29:22
Speaker 3: there and I'll for sure be overweight to roberts And
29:25
Speaker 3: she's one of my top plays on the car Top
29:28
Speaker 3: three four play.
29:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I'm definitely gonna get some Lamemos too.
29:31
Speaker 2: I mean, she hits like a truck, she's athletic, the
29:34
Speaker 2: hips are good. But it very well might just be
29:36
Speaker 2: one takedown. That's kind of what this line movement stops
29:38
Speaker 2: telling me is once she does get the takedown, it's gigs.
29:42
Speaker 2: Robertson very dangerous, very slick grappler on the bottom, so
29:46
Speaker 2: or run the fight's on the ground on the bottom
29:48
Speaker 2: or top. She is very dangerous and lame and Lamos,
29:51
Speaker 2: I mean she she hits like a man. At the
29:53
Speaker 2: end of the day, She's got some big boy power.
29:55
Speaker 2: It's hard to hit like a man though when you're
29:56
Speaker 2: flat on your back, so great class of styles fight.
30:00
Speaker 2: I prefer the Robertson's side. We'll get some laymost as well.
30:04
Speaker 2: Heavyweight fight Kennedy and Jack Bouo minus one twenty eight
30:07
Speaker 2: Marcus Bceca plus one aweight minus four hundred for this
30:10
Speaker 2: fight to finish Kennedy plus one fifteen inside the distance,
30:13
Speaker 2: Butcecha plus one forty five Bucecha the slight underdog plus
30:17
Speaker 2: three fifty in round one Kennedy plus three seventy five
30:21
Speaker 2: in round one. We just talked about a striker versus
30:24
Speaker 2: grappler matchup. Let's repeat striker and Kennedy versus the grappler
30:28
Speaker 2: in Butcecha. On Monday it was minus one fifty Kennedy.
30:32
Speaker 2: Now it is minus one twenty six, so some money
30:34
Speaker 2: came in on the Butchcha side minus four hundred to finish.
30:38
Speaker 2: Mid tier fight. We kept talking about how bad the
30:41
Speaker 2: mid tier is. Yeah, this is a phenomenal mid tier fight.
30:44
Speaker 2: Will be heavily owned due to the lack of options
30:47
Speaker 2: or appealing options around it. I don't really care what
30:50
Speaker 2: the ownership is. I'll eat the chalk. I'll get different elsewhere.
30:54
Speaker 2: I'll play both sides. Buceca is my preferred side. Though
30:57
Speaker 2: six hundred cheaper as the grappler. The line movement, you
31:01
Speaker 2: can plug at Kennedy team in go to Butceca and
31:04
Speaker 2: not give up anything. So yeah, that's my preferred side.
31:07
Speaker 2: With that being said, if Buceca closes like minus one
31:10
Speaker 2: twenty plus one hundred and we're looking at like thirty
31:13
Speaker 2: nine percent versus eighteen percent, we're talking a whole different ballgame.
31:17
Speaker 2: Then it comes to game theory. So for now, Bouceca
31:20
Speaker 2: my favorite, but yeah, what you project ownership at and
31:24
Speaker 2: depending online movement could change things. How do you see
31:27
Speaker 2: this fight.
31:29
Speaker 3: By an area. I think it's Buceca gets the fight
31:32
Speaker 3: to the ground and possibly dominates the fight, or he
31:35
Speaker 3: can't get the fight to the ground and Kennedy either
31:38
Speaker 3: knocks him out or cruises and dominates the striking, which
31:42
Speaker 3: would suck. But I think it's more of a knockout
31:44
Speaker 3: or submission type fight, similar to the last one. I'll
31:48
Speaker 3: be heavy on both sides, but I again prefer the grappler.
31:51
Speaker 3: Give me Buceca. It could be just like Kennedy's last
31:55
Speaker 3: fight where it's just one takedown fights over shortly after that,
31:59
Speaker 3: but I do Tha could be heavy in top controler
32:02
Speaker 3: just kind of dominate the fight, maybe right at the
32:04
Speaker 3: first round, get a late submission, put up one hundred
32:06
Speaker 3: and ten points. I do like him, but this is
32:10
Speaker 3: the best mid range fight to target. I think the
32:12
Speaker 3: winner is probably gonna be on the optimal lineup. Really,
32:16
Speaker 3: my favorite couple Kennedy lineups Ideally, I would duplicate those
32:20
Speaker 3: and put Butceca in there too, and then you get
32:22
Speaker 3: in a lot less.
32:23
Speaker 2: Dupes that way, absolutely, and you're not giving up much.
32:26
Speaker 2: I mean, it would be surprising if this fight closes
32:28
Speaker 2: as the pick them. You actually get a slightly better
32:30
Speaker 2: inside the distance prop around one prop on the Butceca
32:34
Speaker 2: side with the wrestling upside. So yeah, Pacheca might preferred
32:38
Speaker 2: play Kennedy. I mean his highs are very high, his
32:41
Speaker 2: lows are very low. I mean the osp fight, but
32:44
Speaker 2: then you can go to the Albert fight where he
32:47
Speaker 2: was getting his ass be but he stood in there
32:49
Speaker 2: and then finally finished him in round two. So yeah,
32:52
Speaker 2: great fights to target mid tier week. This fight is
32:55
Speaker 2: very good. Let's go to another mid tier fight. A
32:58
Speaker 2: straight pick on minus one ten a piece mel Coasta
33:01
Speaker 2: taken on Morgan Charier plus one fifty for this fight
33:04
Speaker 2: to finish, Charier plus one ninety five inside the distance
33:07
Speaker 2: coast to plus six hundred. Charier is definitely my preferred side.
33:11
Speaker 2: I don't love coin flip fights that are favored to
33:13
Speaker 2: go the distance. I talk about it a lot, You're
33:15
Speaker 2: parlaying a lot of stuff. But that being said, I
33:18
Speaker 2: get a plus one ninety five inside the distance guy
33:20
Speaker 2: against a plus six hundred, and I think Charier more
33:23
Speaker 2: likely to wrestle in this one, as his takedown defense
33:26
Speaker 2: is much better. Melcasa's takedown defense is sitting at fifty
33:30
Speaker 2: eight percent, Charier's is eighty three percent minus one ten apiece.
33:35
Speaker 2: Give me the guy that has some wrestling upside that's
33:37
Speaker 2: three times more likely to win inside the distance. I
33:40
Speaker 2: still don't love the fight, but Charia is the one
33:42
Speaker 2: I'm gonna click more than Coasta. What about you?
33:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really don't want to click this fight at
33:48
Speaker 3: all because I don't feel good about either side. I
33:50
Speaker 3: think it is going to be a close fight, a
33:52
Speaker 3: back and forth fight, and a three round fight, and
33:56
Speaker 3: I don't see that one of these guys really just
33:58
Speaker 3: putting a stamp on the optimal link in a three
34:01
Speaker 3: round fight. I give Cherie the wrestling advantage in the
34:07
Speaker 3: power advantage, but I give Coasta the speed advantage and
34:11
Speaker 3: the submission grappling advantage. I think it could be close
34:14
Speaker 3: on the feet, it could be close on the ground.
34:16
Speaker 3: I just have no real leen on this fight, and
34:18
Speaker 3: I'm hoping that it is back and forth in the
34:20
Speaker 3: winner score seventy points, so we just don't care who wins.
34:22
Speaker 3: So my goal is going to be to play this
34:25
Speaker 3: fight like it's a one star, but I didn't want
34:28
Speaker 3: to make it a one star because my one stars
34:30
Speaker 3: are like I feel good that this fight is not
34:32
Speaker 3: going to score anything at all, but either one of
34:34
Speaker 3: these guys could put up ninety plus. I just don't
34:37
Speaker 3: feel good about clicking the button and who it's going
34:39
Speaker 3: to be, So I'm just gonna try to get away
34:41
Speaker 3: from it and hope that it's not only optimal I picked.
34:44
Speaker 3: I actually don't even know I picked it. I think
34:46
Speaker 3: I picked Costa because it was plus one hundred or something.
34:48
Speaker 3: I'm not sure on this one, but really no real pick,
34:52
Speaker 3: but I think Coastal was.
34:53
Speaker 2: My fifth sounds good. Yeah, again my thought, Shari, and
34:56
Speaker 2: my preferred play. I agree with you, though, not a
34:58
Speaker 2: fight I want to target very much. The mid tier.
35:02
Speaker 2: It's very weak. There's no doubt outside of the Kennedy
35:05
Speaker 2: and Marcus fight. Three fights left. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out.
35:09
Speaker 2: Oh yeahs like button and subscribe. Button helps us out
35:12
Speaker 2: a ton. I'm excited for this one. Michael oli J
35:15
Speaker 2: Check's brother is making his UFC debut. Cesari Old J.
35:19
Speaker 2: Check minus two oh five taken on Caesar al made
35:21
Speaker 2: a plus one seventy five once this opens, minus two
35:26
Speaker 2: to fifty for this fight to finish, Cesari minus one
35:29
Speaker 2: fifteen inside the distance al Mada plus three hundred Old
35:33
Speaker 2: J Chuck in round one plus two fifty. I'll ask
35:37
Speaker 2: you this, do you think Old J Check wrestles in
35:39
Speaker 2: this one? Obviously a primary striker, but so is Almeida.
35:43
Speaker 2: Almeida is like he beat Alex Prairi and kickboxing. Everyone
35:47
Speaker 2: to always talks about that. Just a pure striker, a
35:50
Speaker 2: very good one. Cesari a peer striker too. But if
35:53
Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, we saw Michael or Michelle Old J.
35:57
Speaker 2: Check put on the wrestling shoes already tried to against Shara.
36:02
Speaker 2: Outside of that, he really doesn't wrestle, But yeah, what
36:06
Speaker 2: are your thoughts? You think he just comes in stands
36:08
Speaker 2: and bangs or do you think he mixes in takedowns.
36:11
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't really know. I picked him because
36:14
Speaker 3: he can mix in takedowns and has more ways to
36:17
Speaker 3: win this fight. But he is a striker, maybe the
36:21
Speaker 3: more powerful striker of the two, probably the more powerful
36:23
Speaker 3: striker of the two, but Almda is just way better,
36:26
Speaker 3: more seasoned kickboxer could hit Old Jay Chick with shots
36:30
Speaker 3: he doesn't see come in type of knockouts. But I
36:33
Speaker 3: think that the striking. If I knew it was a
36:36
Speaker 3: fifteen minute striking match, I would lean with Almeida in
36:39
Speaker 3: this one. But I'm picking Old Jay Chick because I
36:42
Speaker 3: think the knockout is in play for his win equity.
36:45
Speaker 3: And I also think maybe one to three takedowns could
36:50
Speaker 3: be enough, or I think the striking is close enough.
36:52
Speaker 3: But then he gets those takedowns and he possibly wins
36:55
Speaker 3: every round because of them. And then when I'm when
37:00
Speaker 3: I was building my lineups, I was picking other favorites first,
37:04
Speaker 3: and he just wasn't ended up in there, and then
37:06
Speaker 3: I needed underdogs, and I was like, well, shoot, maybe
37:08
Speaker 3: I like Almeeda in this fight because if he can't
37:11
Speaker 3: get takedowns and this is a striking match. That's Almeida's fight.
37:15
Speaker 3: I mean, Roman Copylove was trying to get takedowns against
37:18
Speaker 3: this guy like his life depended on it. So he
37:22
Speaker 3: is the real deal on the feet. But he's thirty
37:24
Speaker 3: seven years old, twelve years older and old. Jay Check
37:30
Speaker 3: is the younger and probably better brother of the two,
37:33
Speaker 3: which is I always like the younger brother. They kind
37:35
Speaker 3: of grew up idolizing their older fighting brother, and I
37:39
Speaker 3: think typically that leads to them being just the more
37:43
Speaker 3: better athlete and fighter in general. So he's my pick,
37:47
Speaker 3: but not when I feel good about and if I
37:49
Speaker 3: need to end up with more Almeida lineups because of it,
37:52
Speaker 3: I'm okay with that.
37:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I picked Almeida just because I thought
37:55
Speaker 2: the number was a little wide for someone that I
37:59
Speaker 2: think is pop a striking fight, and if so, I
38:02
Speaker 2: just think the line's wrong that way. But Caesar Csari
38:06
Speaker 2: could wrestle, He still could knock out all made on
38:08
Speaker 2: the feet. He has multiple ways to get there, and
38:10
Speaker 2: he's only eighty seven hundred, So again, I can build
38:13
Speaker 2: any COP team go COP down to Cesari and feel
38:16
Speaker 2: fine with it. There's a lot more around one equity,
38:19
Speaker 2: knockdown equity, maybe wrestling. There's plenty of outs for Cesari
38:22
Speaker 2: to get there. Also, he's his ownership has to say
38:25
Speaker 2: somewhat in check right in between Pat and aspland the
38:30
Speaker 2: two heavyweight fights that are very heavily favored to finish.
38:33
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it's a solid fight. I will
38:36
Speaker 2: be playing both sides. Not even sure my preferred play.
38:39
Speaker 2: Oh I said, I'll made it wins, but if he
38:40
Speaker 2: wins a decision, he still might not score enough at
38:43
Speaker 2: seventy five hundred, assuming some other dogs win. So kind
38:47
Speaker 2: of a fight. I just want to be around the
38:48
Speaker 2: field with on both and I don't want anything to
38:50
Speaker 2: burn me any result of this fight. All right to
38:54
Speaker 2: fight two fights left, Kevin Vlahous minus three hundred. He
38:57
Speaker 2: get Chakadze plus two fifty plus one oh five for
39:01
Speaker 2: this fight to finish. Vallejos plus one forty five inside
39:04
Speaker 2: the distance Giga plus six hundred. Yeah, I mean it's
39:08
Speaker 2: Vallejoster pass for me, and I really don't love Vallejos
39:12
Speaker 2: due to Giga just runs around the octagon and tries
39:14
Speaker 2: to make it a boring kickboxing fight. Leaos I think
39:17
Speaker 2: has to find the chin in rounds one or two,
39:20
Speaker 2: and at the end of the day, over two and
39:21
Speaker 2: a half is minus one fifty five and even if
39:24
Speaker 2: Leos gets a second round knockout, there's no guarantee he's optimal.
39:28
Speaker 2: So yeah, valaoster pass and more teams for me will
39:31
Speaker 2: probably pass.
39:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that. I just really don't think
39:36
Speaker 3: I'm gonna get to Jiga. He's kind of a long
39:38
Speaker 3: term fait for me. I never play him in dfs.
39:41
Speaker 3: He's a pure kickboxer, so he doesn't need this fight
39:44
Speaker 3: to be on the feet, and he probably is gonna
39:46
Speaker 3: get that. But Valejos is a pressure fighter. He's a
39:49
Speaker 3: power puncher. He can also load up volume, get in
39:54
Speaker 3: Jiga's face and not let him get that kickboxing footwork
39:58
Speaker 3: that he would need. Villy House is our more likely
40:01
Speaker 3: wrestler as well, so he's my pick to win, my
40:04
Speaker 3: pick to be more likely to be on the optimal lineup.
40:07
Speaker 3: But ninety one hundred is a lot to pay, and
40:10
Speaker 3: Jiga is a good defensive fighter, so I think we're
40:14
Speaker 3: kind of relying on the knockout from Layhouse, and I agree.
40:17
Speaker 3: Maybe I prefer more in my lineups to not have
40:20
Speaker 3: this fight.
40:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a fight I like very much. Like Brian said,
40:24
Speaker 2: a lot of geekas fights have been low pace. He
40:26
Speaker 2: wants to fight at range, wants to bounce around, pick
40:28
Speaker 2: his shots, either get a KO or a boring decision?
40:32
Speaker 2: Is this game plan? Main event time? Again? We appreciate
40:36
Speaker 2: everyone hanging out last fight of the year, and I
40:38
Speaker 2: will say, on a pretty subpar fight night which they
40:41
Speaker 2: just got off of a pay per view, it's the
40:43
Speaker 2: last one who knows who all wants to fight on
40:46
Speaker 2: the last cart of the year, they got a great
40:48
Speaker 2: one in the main event. Anytime I see Brandon roy
40:50
Speaker 2: Bell's name, you know you're in for a dog fight.
40:52
Speaker 2: Then Neel Coup not necessarily the case. He can be
40:56
Speaker 2: in some boring fights. Very very skilled though very powerful,
40:59
Speaker 2: good rest, very athletic. He is a big favorite at
41:02
Speaker 2: minus two seventy over Brandon roy Vale at plus two
41:05
Speaker 2: thirty minus one ninety for this fight to finish, we
41:08
Speaker 2: have Cop minus one twenty five inside the distance Royvale
41:11
Speaker 2: plus four sixty five. I see you have four stars
41:15
Speaker 2: COP two stars or excuse me, four stars Royvale two stars,
41:19
Speaker 2: COP four stars for this fight? Are you picking the
41:22
Speaker 2: big underdog in Brandon Royval.
41:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I am picking roy Vale, and I would
41:27
Speaker 3: have met him already if I didn't go to YouTube
41:29
Speaker 3: and see that seventy plus percent of people were picking
41:31
Speaker 3: roy Vale to be Cop in their poll. So I
41:35
Speaker 3: always hate when that happens. But Cop is just somebody
41:38
Speaker 3: I never play at nine K, even in a five
41:41
Speaker 3: round fight. I'm just not interested. He's a low volume
41:43
Speaker 3: I mean, not a low volume, but too low the
41:46
Speaker 3: volume striker in DFS, and he doesn't wrestle, so I
41:51
Speaker 3: would prefer the roy Val side, who I think is
41:54
Speaker 3: more likely to wrestle. He is a very high volume striker.
41:58
Speaker 3: It looks like they're really close neck and neck when
42:00
Speaker 3: you watch these guys, Boy, it looks like Royval could
42:02
Speaker 3: double Cop up, and he's more consistent with his high
42:06
Speaker 3: volume as well. Cop is kind of like a King
42:09
Speaker 3: Green though, where he can really start to feel himself
42:12
Speaker 3: and get going on the feet a little bit more powerful,
42:15
Speaker 3: you know, pound for pound, I'd say than King Green,
42:18
Speaker 3: he is more likely to get the knockout. But I
42:20
Speaker 3: think this fight's gonna go the distance, or at least
42:23
Speaker 3: go a few rounds, and in that case, give me
42:26
Speaker 3: roy Val all day. If roy Val wins, he's on
42:29
Speaker 3: the optimal lineup. If Cop wins, I don't even think
42:32
Speaker 3: he makes the optimal lineup, So I'm literally xing out Cop.
42:35
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna play any of him. I don't think
42:37
Speaker 3: I'll get to one hundred and fifty lineups. But even
42:39
Speaker 3: if I do. First move i'm doing is xing out Cop,
42:42
Speaker 3: and I'm fine playing anyone we've talked about around his
42:45
Speaker 3: range instead of him at possibly lower ownership, because main
42:49
Speaker 3: event favorites are always gonna have ownership even if they're
42:52
Speaker 3: not a good stylistic DFS player.
42:54
Speaker 2: I could see Cop being a little lower own than
42:58
Speaker 2: most main event favorites. And when I say that, maybe
43:00
Speaker 2: like a thirty six percent, but you're yeah, you're absolutely
43:03
Speaker 2: still right that very well could still be over owned.
43:06
Speaker 2: I'm picking Cop, And the reason I'm picking Cop is
43:09
Speaker 2: I think his takedown defense is enough for Royvale that
43:12
Speaker 2: he can't wrestle on the feet. I just think Revel's
43:15
Speaker 2: volume is great. I'm not saying he has pillows for hands,
43:18
Speaker 2: but when you're comparing him to Cop, like Revel can
43:20
Speaker 2: still double Land or like Land twice as more. The
43:24
Speaker 2: cops just one shot just knocks him down, like I
43:26
Speaker 2: think there's multiple knockdown upside. He just went through the
43:29
Speaker 2: war against Joshua Van months ago. Not sure about his chin.
43:34
Speaker 2: I know he's gonna fight for the dollar. But Cop Man,
43:36
Speaker 2: when he is flow state like do Zolgis fight, it's insane,
43:39
Speaker 2: like the dude just can't miss so strong. However, then
43:43
Speaker 2: he goes through fights like Nick Lauer. It's just a
43:45
Speaker 2: staring match for fifteen minutes and it's super boring. So yeah,
43:50
Speaker 2: Cop falls down the list is my favorite upper tier
43:52
Speaker 2: fighters because there's twenty five minutes he's favored to finish.
43:56
Speaker 2: I play a lot of lineups on picking him to win.
43:58
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have some uh yeah. Not asked about Roy
44:02
Speaker 2: Bell's ownership, you said high forties. Yeah, probably like forty two,
44:06
Speaker 2: forty percent. I think something like that, thirty eight maybe
44:09
Speaker 2: I do see it.
44:10
Speaker 3: I think I'll start like forty six and then work
44:12
Speaker 3: my way down actually as I need to. But he's
44:16
Speaker 3: just the easiest underdog to click on, I think, and
44:19
Speaker 3: that allows people to pay up for other favors. So
44:21
Speaker 3: I just think he's gonna be high, and like you mentioned,
44:24
Speaker 3: Cop will be low for a over thirty to mid thirties.
44:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think actually Royvel will probably be higher on
44:32
Speaker 2: than Cop straight up, and also for that reason because
44:35
Speaker 2: I think there is appealing dogs Fry Sheriff, Thompson, Bouceccha Like,
44:41
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be underweight roy Belle when it's all
44:44
Speaker 2: said and done, especially if he is in the forties,
44:46
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna be overweight on fight fades on this
44:48
Speaker 2: one if I think Cop wins a third round knockout,
44:51
Speaker 2: a fourth round knockout decision, all of that. As long
44:54
Speaker 2: as other dogs are winning, there is a path Rovell
44:56
Speaker 2: can be optimal in a loss, especially if it's twenty
44:59
Speaker 2: five minutes. If not many other underdogs win. I'm hoping
45:03
Speaker 2: some other underdogs win, though I think he's probably over owned.
45:06
Speaker 2: Maybe both are over owned. I definitely will have fight
45:08
Speaker 2: fades in this one. An Any final thoughts for you
45:13
Speaker 2: on the last card of the year ESPN plus is
45:17
Speaker 2: no more paramount is where you'll have to be to
45:20
Speaker 2: catch all the UFC fights. No pay per views, though
45:23
Speaker 2: I'm glad they got rid of the model not charging
45:25
Speaker 2: people that way. But yeah, I'm ready to end it
45:27
Speaker 2: in the bang. Any final thoughts for the people before
45:30
Speaker 2: we get on out of here.
45:31
Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to Paramount as well well. Hopefully this
45:34
Speaker 3: is a good final card of the year. Hopefully it
45:37
Speaker 3: plays out better than it looks on paper, and hopefully
45:39
Speaker 3: we get somebody winning a buttload of money in DFS.
45:43
Speaker 3: If it's not me, hopefully it's your title. If it's
45:45
Speaker 3: not you, hopefully it's somebody listening. But good luck to you,
45:48
Speaker 3: good luck to everybody listening, and Joe the holidays, Happy
45:52
Speaker 3: New Year, thanks for watching, and good luck.
45:55
Speaker 2: Absolutely we'll be back next year. Big Marley and I
45:58
Speaker 2: like always breaking down all of the fights you guys.
46:02
Speaker 2: Enjoy your New Year, Enjoy your Christmas, Hanukah, whatever you
46:05
Speaker 2: celebrate with family with friends, best time of the year,
46:08
Speaker 2: absolutely enjoy it. Hopefully you have a little extra money
46:11
Speaker 2: in your pocket to this card or NFL or anything
46:15
Speaker 2: this weekend. Again, you can join us at ship a
46:17
Speaker 2: Nation for as low as nineteen dollars using the code
46:20
Speaker 2: ship nineteen four or five days get in the discord.
46:23
Speaker 2: If you do join as well, that'll do it for us.
46:26
Speaker 2: Have a great year. Thank you everybody for your support.
46:29
Speaker 2: Hit the like on the way out for Big Marley.
46:31
Speaker 2: I'm titled talent piece safe peace, good luck, Let's go.
47:03
Speaker 3: And stay
47:05
Speaker 2: At any mista