Latest / Money Grows on Trees / #365 - Individual Stocks Vs Index Funds? (Which Wins?)
Transcript
- 0:00Looking backwards, picking Apple looks obvious. Looking forwards, identifying
- 0:03the next one is one of the hardest things in investing. Most
- 0:06people assume great stock picking is about research and
- 0:10conviction, but the reality is over the last century, nearly 60% of
- 0:14individual US stocks actually destroyed wealth for their shareholders. The
- 0:18market did incredibly well, not because most companies
- 0:21did well, but because a tiny number of extraordinary companies did
- 0:25extraordinarily well. And the odds of picking those in advance are
- 0:28not what most people think. I'm Lloyd J. Ross, a seven-figure investor and
- 0:31entrepreneur, and I've helped thousands of everyday Aussies, Americans, New Zealanders, Canadians, and
- 0:35those from the UK get out of debt and build real wealth. And in this video, I'm gonna show
- 0:38you the actual data on stock picking versus index funds
- 0:42and why even professional fund managers can't consistently win,
- 0:46and the framework to decide which approach is actually right for you.
- 0:50Now, as you can see, it's Ferrari week again here in studio, and if
- 0:53you haven't watched the episode yet of how and why I bought this Ferrari behind me here,
- 0:57go back and check out the episodes. I think you'll really enjoy it. I'll go through the ins and outs of
- 1:00the whole thing, plus some cool things you'll learn about tax and ownership, and just
- 1:03some cool things about the Ferrari brand. So go back, check it out. Hope
- 1:07you enjoy it, but that's why. The red dolly car behind me is here. So
- 1:10I hope you don't mind, but she's joined us today for this episode on index
- 1:14funds or stocks, which one's right for you. So let's jump straight into it
- 1:17now. Without doubt, the biggest fortunes in the markets and in the world, period,
- 1:21have been through individual ownership of companies. It is the biggest game in
- 1:24town. It's what all the big boys at Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, you
- 1:28got Bill Gates, you got Steve Jobs and Elon Musk and
- 1:31Warren Buffett. Jeff Bezos, these guys are the richest
- 1:35guys in the world and they all got there through building and scaling companies,
- 1:39which become public, which is what stocks are, is public shares that
- 1:42the public can own of these companies. So if you pick one of those
- 1:46early enough and held it, you would have absolutely annihilated the
- 1:50index without question, far out. It's crazy how
- 1:53well you would have done, which is why Bill Gates, he was at the top of the rich list for
- 1:56so long because he owned Microsoft. But
- 1:59people like Warren Buffett come along, folks like him, he's owned
- 2:03Berkshire Hathaway, his company for a long time, but really he's built wealth through
- 2:06identifying and buying private businesses and public businesses over
- 2:10time. So he is well known for someone who can buy shares in public
- 2:13companies consistently well for long periods of time. Like unbelievably,
- 2:17he has outperformed the index so much that check out this statistic. If
- 2:22Berkshire Hathaway's share price fell 98%, 98% from where
- 2:26it is today, he still would have beaten the index since 1965. That's
- 2:31how good he is. Crazy. So can you beat the index? Of course, Warren
- 2:35Buffett and his super investor friends have done so. Like Lee
- 2:38Liu's done it this year, Chris Hunt. There's people that do it, right? It's not easy. You
- 2:41have to be smart, but you also have to have the right emotional intelligence and
- 2:45work hard at it, but it's totally possible. Lay people do it. They do. It's
- 2:49totally possible. Last year, I beat the index. So totally doable, but
- 2:53what does it take and what's the best approach? So let's keep going. Here's the
- 2:56interesting part. When you look backwards, things look obvious,
- 3:00but looking forwards is way harder. I'll give you an example. A
- 3:03couple of years ago, Meta fell by, God, it went from
- 3:06probably, I want to say $400 or $500 a share down to $100. And
- 3:11the reason it did that is because it basically tore up $80 billion of
- 3:14cash building this Meta universe that
- 3:18never transpired, and it just never got a return out of it. And
- 3:21investors punished the stock. They sold out like, oh, this Mark Zuckerberg
- 3:24guy doesn't know what he's doing. They lost all hope in the company
- 3:28doing anything good. And of course it was selling for a hundred bucks a share and
- 3:31I should have bought some, I didn't. It was selling for 10 times earnings, wonderful business. And it
- 3:34basically has, I would say seven X'd since then,
- 3:38700% return. So there are moments
- 3:41where you can identify great businesses that go on sale. Now,
- 3:45if you look back at the stock chart, there's a massive fall and
- 3:48there's a massive rise. Now you look at, now you go, oh, I would have bought then.
- 3:51But here's the thing, I was, I lived through it. I was watching that.
- 3:55And I didn't do it. And the reason for it is because when a stock falls,
- 3:59it falls because of uncertainty. And uncertainty
- 4:04is not a comfortable thing to invest in. And so people
- 4:07don't. And so they go, oh, it's not going to work out. And all of a sudden,
- 4:10it goes back up. And they go, oh, man, I should have done it. And they didn't, because at the time, it's
- 4:13just not obvious. It's not. It's not obvious. Even
- 4:17during the GFC when the whole market tanked 50%, people were like, oh
- 4:20my God, I wouldn't touch stocks because the whole world's going to disappear and die. I
- 4:24saw it in code. People weren't touching things because they don't know how far it's
- 4:27going to fall. You don't know how far the knife's
- 4:30going to fall, so you don't know when to catch it. That's the real problem. You
- 4:33don't know when to ape into it. because you haven't done enough research to
- 4:37do so. At the time, I didn't know enough about Meta as a business to have
- 4:40an opinion on it, and I didn't have to. You don't have to swing at every pitch, as
- 4:43Warren says. It's not always obvious. That's the first thing.
- 4:47What I've learned is that if you find companies that have been around a long time, and
- 4:51they've been great companies for a long time, great companies tend
- 4:54to remain great companies. Not always, but they tend to. Crap
- 4:58companies tend to remain crap companies. I think straightaway you
- 5:02can get rid of most companies out of your circle of forget about
- 5:05them because they're crap. If you just look at some of the good ones, if
- 5:08you go and look at Warren Buffett's portfolio, he's got Apple, Google, Coke, American
- 5:12Express, Moody's, a couple of oil companies, Chevron. They've been
- 5:15great companies for a long time. Look at John D. Rockefeller's oil company, Chevron, ExxonMobil.
- 5:19They're John D. Rockefeller's company from the 1800s. They have done well for
- 5:23a long time. So you do have these companies and
- 5:26businesses that do well over and if you want to buy into them and hold them, you
- 5:29tend to do pretty good. But a lot of people don't do that.
- 5:33They look for the next big thing. They want to get a bargain. They just can't go
- 5:36for the plain vanilla result. Weird. Anyway, let's drop
- 5:40a statistic in here. There's research done on 29,754 US stocks between 1926 and 2025. Here's
- 5:44what they found. The average return was enormous, but the median stock had
- 5:55a lifetime buy and hold return of about negative 6.9%. That's
- 6:00a very statistically significant number. So investors in
- 6:04nearly 60% of stocks actually experienced a reduction in
- 6:08wealth, 60%. Just check this out,
- 6:12just 46 companies, 46 accounted
- 6:16for half of the entire $91 trillion of net US
- 6:19stock market wealth creation over the century. 46 in
- 6:24100 years. That's it. That's the episode. How? How
- 6:28are you going to do that, right? So the market does incredibly well
- 6:31because a tiny number of companies do incredibly well. So
- 6:35later I'm going to show you why that statistic completely changes how you think about
- 6:38diversification. But first, what are we actually comparing here? Let's
- 6:42keep things really basic. We're comparing an individual stock, so
- 6:45ownership in one company. So for example, Commonwealth Bank, BHP, Apple,
- 6:49Google, NVIDIA, whatever, and your results will obviously depend on how the company goes.
- 6:53Versus an index fund, which is where you're buying a basket of stocks. designated to
- 6:56track an index, right? And some examples are the S&P 500 index that
- 6:59tracks the top 500 companies in North America, ASX 200, which is the top
- 7:03200 Australian companies, ASX 300, top 300 Australian companies, MSCI
- 7:07World Index, which tracks a broad 1,000 companies in
- 7:10the world, the NASDAQ, which is top 100 non-financial companies
- 7:14in North America. Each major stock indices has,
- 7:18so the Nikkei, which is the Japanese stock exchange, it's
- 7:21got an index that tracks the top 50 to 100, Japanese companies
- 7:25and same as China and so forth. So indexing is basically
- 7:29buying a basket of stocks. You're fully diversified and then your
- 7:32returns are matching the market return for that particular market. So
- 7:36which one wins? It's basically does an individual company or an individual horse
- 7:39win or does the collection of horses in the race win? That's really
- 7:43what we're comparing here. That's what we're diving into. And I think what's
- 7:46interesting too is that just because you own an Australian index fund that
- 7:50may beat a single stock, it may not beat the American index fund. So
- 7:53you can even track, you can even compare index funds to index funds.
- 7:57So let's have a look at this. Let's do the case for individual stocks. I
- 8:01don't want to just cast them aside because there's some real legitimate advantages
- 8:05to buying individual stock. And I own individual stocks. Here's
- 8:08the major benefit. The first one is your upside isn't limited
- 8:12to the market return. Because if you look at the market, It's since 1957, the S&P
- 8:16500 has basically produced 10.26% per annum on
- 8:19average over that time. So that's the market return. Now here's
- 8:22the thing. It's limited to the market return too, if you own the market. Whereas if you own an individual company,
- 8:26it's not limited to that. So like for example, had you have bought any number
- 8:30of tech companies, you would have just absolutely just, you would have gotten
- 8:33so rich. Like monetarily wise, you would have gotten a
- 8:36lot of rich, like if there's less limited upside. Okay. So
- 8:40if you identify an exceptional business, you can outperform the
- 8:43market drastically. Okay, so I think if you look at, I
- 8:47think they studied like 29,000 different US listed stocks through
- 8:522023, and NVIDIA actually produced the highest annualized compound return
- 8:56of any stock with at least a 20-year history. 33.3% per annum.
- 8:59Fucking huge, right? Incredible. What
- 9:05about this? Altria produced the highest cumulative lifetime return in
- 9:09the study, right? It basically returned $2.65 million for every
- 9:12dollar originally invested. For every dollar invested, it
- 9:16produced $2.65 million, assuming that
- 9:20the investor held it through the entire history, which is not easy to do. I don't know if
- 9:23anyone can do that, but that's why they often say, if you're going to buy individual stocks, buy them
- 9:26and put them in a drawer and don't look at them for another 50 years. Okay, so
- 9:30think about that. That's insane, right? Like 10% compounded every
- 9:33year over time is brilliant. That's why indexing is so powerful. 20% is
- 9:37extraordinary. Like Warren Buffett produced 19% over
- 9:4260 years, which is obscene. Think about 30%. Sustain
- 9:46that for decades, 72 divide 30. So 72 divide three
- 9:50is, we've got two and a bit. So
- 9:55basically your money doubles every two and a bit years. At a 30% return,
- 9:59your money doubles every say two and a half years. It's crazy. That's
- 10:04with 33% returns, okay? 7.2% at
- 10:0810% returns. So you can see, it's really good though. And that's why
- 10:12people obsess over finding the next Nvidia, because they know this, right? The
- 10:15second great thing about individual stocks is you can own only
- 10:19the businesses you like, okay? So you can do that. You can choose quality,
- 10:23you can choose on valuation, you can choose on industry and debt and management,
- 10:26capital allocation, dividend policy, like all these cool things you can do. So like the
- 10:30individual stocks, I own them because I believe they're gonna be around for another 100 years. They've
- 10:34got great managers, great capital allocation. They're growing their earnings presently
- 10:37and will in the fortuitous future. They're paying good dividends. They grow their dividends for
- 10:40many decades and they've proven to do that. And they're not carrying too much debt
- 10:44and all these great things. So I get to choose that. I'm not just picking
- 10:48an individual company, right? You get to choose the best. Whereas in an
- 10:51index, it doesn't matter what you personally think about a company, whether
- 10:54it's expensive or you own it. The
- 10:57other thing with individual stocks is you can concentrate. So diversification reduces the
- 11:01damage, right? If you're wrong, that's great, it's important. But concentration
- 11:04can magnify what happens when you're right. So you have
- 11:08to definitely know your stuff if you're going to buy an individual company. But that's where
- 11:12you're going to do the work. So on the flip side, concentration is
- 11:16not always intelligent either. Like I've held, like last year I held a million dollars
- 11:19in one company and I ended up diversifying a way out of that, made
- 11:23money doing that decision and I'm comfortable now with what I hold. Would
- 11:26I have a situation where I could full port my whole portfolio into one stock? Would
- 11:31I do that? I think I'd do that with Berkshire Hathaway. I'd probably do it maybe
- 11:34with Google. There's a handful maybe, but again, you don't have to.
- 11:37I think three. I think Charlie Munger used to say, if you own three really good companies, that's all you
- 11:41need. And he owned Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire
- 11:44Hathaway is like a company within companies. It's like its own index fund. But
- 11:47Google, if you look at Google and Apple, they are actually multiple
- 11:51businesses within a business, which is fascinating. So they're like a mini index fund in
- 11:55their own right. They've got five kind of business lines coming
- 11:58into them, which make them very diversified too, which makes them
- 12:01powerful businesses. So I think if you look at even S&P Global's like
- 12:04that, to some extent, MasterCard and Visa have got these consulting businesses
- 12:08they're bringing through. So you can find diversification within
- 12:12a business, you can. And that's an effective, yeah, if
- 12:16you look at Chevron, it's got upstream, midstream, downstream. You'll find diversification
- 12:19within a company, whereas if you've got a company that's got one income, it's
- 12:24a bigger risk. That's what's interesting. So when it looks concentrated, it
- 12:27may not be as concentrated. Okay, so there you go. All right. So
- 12:31this is where the data gets brutal. So this should probably be the strongest section
- 12:36of this part of this episode that we do. How hard could
- 12:39picking winners really be? So we'll talk about the research. They
- 12:42did a global study and they examined 64,000 stocks. That's quite a lot of
- 12:46stock. 64,000 stocks across the world from 1990 to 2020. That's a
- 12:50lot. The results, check it out.
- 12:5455.2% of US stocks underperformed one month US treasury bills. risk-free
- 12:58asset, treasury bills, 55% underperformed treasury
- 13:02bills, 57% of non-US stocks did the same. And
- 13:06just the top 2.4% of all companies accounted for
- 13:09all the $75 trillion of net global stock wealth creation in
- 13:13that time. Just 2%. Like, it's crazy, right? It's
- 13:16just a minuscule amount. This is why Warren Buffett just
- 13:20is so selective. It doesn't mean that 97.6% of
- 13:24stocks lose money. It just means the returns are skewed. So
- 13:28you've got lots of mediocre companies, lots of failures, some
- 13:32decent winners, and a tiny number of absolute monsters. And
- 13:36the monsters pull the average market return upward. This
- 13:39is why averages are deceptive. So an example, let's
- 13:43go through, let's say there's five companies, company A is 100%, company
- 13:47B minus 50% returns, company C 20%, company D
- 13:5150%, company E 1,000%. So most weren't spectacular, but
- 13:54the one massive winner, that 1,000% returner, can change
- 13:58the entire average portfolio. So would you
- 14:01rather try and identify the company E beforehand or
- 14:05own all five and guarantee that E is actually in the portfolio?
- 14:09This is the beauty of indexing, right? And that's the philosophical difference. I
- 14:13often can think of it as an individual stock like picking the winner of
- 14:16the Melbourne Cup. but a bit more evidence around it, a bit more
- 14:19like price discovery and a bit more certainty, a lot more certainty. Or
- 14:23an index is like owning all the horses in a race. And
- 14:27the odds of you winning are 1.1 to 1. It's so much easier to
- 14:30deploy large amounts of capital into
- 14:34the 1.1 to 1 odds than it is to put large amounts of capital into
- 14:37the, God, I've got to get this right, I've got 2% chance, right?
- 14:41I think. So that's why even with my individual stock holdings, I'm
- 14:45not just I have typically held between six to eight stocks in
- 14:48a portfolio. I have held a lot less. I've had three before. I
- 14:51currently have four plus other things. So
- 14:56it's fairly concentrated, but it's not really. If it's
- 14:59concentrated, you have to be okay with volatility, meaning
- 15:03you have to be okay with your portfolio swinging quite drastically because it
- 15:06will. Whereas if you own the index, it will swing less drastically. So
- 15:10if you're someone who can't stomach big swings, don't buy individual stocks, just
- 15:13buy the index. But the other thing with individual stocks, which is, fuck, it's
- 15:17so hard. It's so hard. If it starts winning, you've got to hold
- 15:20it. Oh my God. You see some big investors like Manish
- 15:25and Li Lu. These guys are disciples of Charlie Munger and
- 15:28Warren Buffett. And they both held Micron, MU
- 15:32Stock Ticket Code, probably two years ago. And it was going okay. They've
- 15:35obviously done their due diligence. Some things changed in the business model. I think
- 15:38it was a competition thing. So
- 15:41it lost a competitive edge with how it was earning money. So they both
- 15:45sold it. And then no joke, the next year it 9x'd. Like
- 15:49it 9x'd and they didn't hold it. So it made absolute rational sense to
- 15:52sell it. And they did, but it fucking 9x'd. And so even with Coke, he's
- 15:56had to hold that. You have to have held stocks. Even John
- 16:00D. Rockefeller, what I love about him is he held his oil stocks. long
- 16:04time and he would just keep buying them. How you do individual, from
- 16:07what I have learned, how you do individual stocks is you find companies
- 16:12that won't be disrupted, that have been great companies for a long time, that
- 16:15will continue to be great companies, and you get a selection of them, diversify
- 16:19them away from sectors if you can, so like maybe an oil and railroad, and
- 16:22then you have a consumer discretion, and you might have a tech, so like one
- 16:25from each of the main sectors. It helps your volatility, and you
- 16:28steer clear of cycles, but Outside six
- 16:32to eight like that's how you do and you just gotta hold like even
- 16:35when Google has gone through that challenge recently with Chachapati
- 16:39and Anthropic coming up and they didn't have Gemini sorted their stock
- 16:42price was languishing and if you had have held Google all that time you might have thought it's
- 16:45the end for Google like we're done and you would have sold and you
- 16:48would have missed this massive run up like 2x
- 16:52on a two trillion dollar company and you would have lost a hundred percent like It's
- 16:56so easy to do because you can get, Peter Lynch have this saying, he used to
- 16:59say, the key to stocks is not to get scared out of them. That's
- 17:03what's hard about it. It's just not, it's picking in a
- 17:06video in 1999 is just not enough. You have to have bought it, not
- 17:09sold it after 100% return, not sold it after 500% return,
- 17:14survived COVID, the crashes of like the GFC and COVID,
- 17:18and tolerate the awful years, still believe in the business and avoid replacing it with
- 17:21the next shiny thing. You would have had to have done all that, right? So
- 17:26extraordinary lifetime returns often come from relatively unremarkable
- 17:30looking annual compounding periods, enormous periods
- 17:34of time, right? So when they did this study with all these thousands of
- 17:37stocks, 17 stocks with lifetime returns above 5 million
- 17:41percent. Check this out. So there were 17 stocks that had returns
- 17:45above 5 million percent, which is just flipping ungodly amounts
- 17:49of returns. And yes, you would want to be part of that, but check it out. They
- 17:52had annualized returns of around 13.4%. So
- 17:56you have to get this boring, like over, so years like way up
- 18:00and then way down and way up. But the average was 13%, but
- 18:03the averages don't look smooth. They're very bumpy. Like Charlie
- 18:07Munger had this saying, if you can't handle a few percent of your stocks, you don't need to, you shouldn't
- 18:10own them. Same thing, right? So there you go. It
- 18:14sometimes, it doesn't always, it's not always smooth. Right.
- 18:18So I think that kind of encapsulates stocks.
- 18:21And of course we haven't mentioned this, but I will just mention it quickly. What happens
- 18:24if you get it wrong? Like you choose Enron and you bought
- 18:28these shares in Enron and all of a sudden it's broke. What if you bought Lehman brothers, which
- 18:31is like 150 year old investment bank that you would never in a million years think go
- 18:34bankrupt. 2008, gone. They let it go bankrupt. You lost
- 18:37all your money. That can happen. But it's
- 18:41not what usually happens. It's more like
- 18:46it might lose 50% and stay there for 13 years. Could
- 18:50you imagine? I think this is what's gonna happen to the crypto guys. It's gonna go
- 18:53sideways for 10, 15 years, and it's just gonna be brutal. So,
- 18:58avoiding catastrophic losses, yes, one thing,
- 19:02but holding it, like what about Nike right now? Nike, you would
- 19:05have had, now I don't know what's gonna happen to Nike. By all accounts, great company, blah,
- 19:08blah, blah. This is why apparel company's not the best, I don't think. It's had
- 19:11a 78% drawdown in the last 12 months, 78. You
- 19:15had to have copped this on the chin and still hold.
- 19:18What if you had 5 million in it? You'd be down to $1.5 million.
- 19:22You would have lost $4 million in paper gains. You've got to hold yourself
- 19:25through this. And you've got to still hold. And I don't know how low it's going to go. What
- 19:29if it sits low for 20 years and then grow?
- 19:33See what I'm saying? Like you have to know, anyway. So why are
- 19:36index funds hard to beat? Obviously all those things you don't have to contend with, thank God, right?
- 19:40So if you're not convinced yet that index funds are the way to go,
- 19:43you probably will be by now. So index funds own the great companies and
- 19:46the crappy ones, okay? So you will own the whole horses, the sick horses and
- 19:50the good horses in the race, but you do get to
- 19:53participate in the monster gains of those good ones and the crappy
- 19:56ones offset those great gains, okay? The
- 19:59S&P 500 for example, use that as an example, it evolves. The
- 20:03S&P 500 today is not the same as the one in 1980. So what's cool about it
- 20:06is companies have grown, shrinked, merged, disappeared, added value and been removed. So
- 20:10I like to say in the horse race, some have jumped the fence, some have died, some
- 20:13have just been left behind, but you get to still participate
- 20:17and win the race at 1.1 to 1 odds. That's what's cool about it. So
- 20:20what's interesting when you hold an index, you're not holding those same companies for the next 20, they
- 20:24will evolve and change and it's automatically reshuffled for you based
- 20:27on their weights. It's quite an incredible thing. It
- 20:31is. You don't have to predict which company is gonna be good 20 years from now. You
- 20:34don't have to worry about what happens to a big drawdown sale. It's just such an
- 20:37easy path, right? And it's so simple but
- 20:41so effective that even the best
- 20:45money man has struggled to beat it, right? They do. It's
- 20:48up 11.5% this year, despite the tariffs, despite
- 20:52the oil, the war. It's still
- 20:55up 11%. This thing is like an unstoppable force. I'm
- 21:00up 13% on my portfolio currently, year to date, and
- 21:04it's been so hard. I've had some big gains in oil stocks, and I'm
- 21:07finding it challenging this year. Again, it's not easy. Let me
- 21:11give you this statistic as well. In Australia, where I
- 21:14live, the 89% of Australian equities
- 21:18generally underperform even the ASX 200. It's crazy. By
- 21:23and large, U.S. indexes will
- 21:27outperform Australian index. Only because if you look at the quality of the companies in
- 21:31our countries and how we operate, of course, US is winning
- 21:34and winning solves everything. So there's a reason why typically, not always,
- 21:37but typically the American index is outperforming Australia. Australia is a very resource
- 21:42heavy country. So you're going to have the differences there. So
- 21:45in big commodity cycles, we tend to do well, which we're
- 21:48about to enter one. So we could do pretty good, but we're predominated by banks and
- 21:52they've had a good run up and they probably won't now for a while, so it's
- 21:55hard to tell what ASX is going to do. But America, it's just all these unique companies popping
- 21:59up all the time, a lot of tech companies. Anyway, I digress. The statistic
- 22:02you need to know is this, 90% of
- 22:06professional money managers that spend 60 hours a week doing this, they do not outperform
- 22:09the S&P 500. Now, Warren Buffett knows this. So he made a famous bet
- 22:13in 2007 and he challenged the hedge fund industry
- 22:16and he said, I'll bet that you
- 22:19can choose five hedge funds and run
- 22:23by professional managers and I bet of the next 10 years,
- 22:27a low-cost S&P 500 index fund beats them. And
- 22:31one of the hedge funds took him up on the bet and they bet a million dollars and they give it to charity. He said,
- 22:34okay. So 10 years went by, the S&P 500, check this, it's crazy.
- 22:38You're going to die when you hear this statistic. It's 125% return
- 22:43for the S&P 500 in 10 years. The other hedge funds, 8.5% average
- 22:47annual gain. Crazy, right? Oh, no, that's not
- 22:50right. Wait a second. That's the average. It
- 22:54is, that's correct. Let's go back. Cut. So
- 22:57this is interesting. 125% for the S&P 500, 125%, which is only 8.5% average annual return, by the
- 23:01way. It's not heaps. Like, it's good. This
- 23:07is amazing what 8.5% a year can do, but do for you. But
- 23:10the five portfolios, they did this. One did 21, one did
- 23:1442, one did 87, pretty good. One did two, 2.8, one
- 23:17did 27. So not one of them beat the index, not even close. So
- 23:22even brilliant people can lose a huge portion of return through fees, excessive
- 23:26activity and trading, and trying to outsmart everyone, right? This is why
- 23:30Warren Buffett has often said in his will
- 23:33to his wife Astrid, when I die, put the money into an index fund. So he said
- 23:37that time and time again. And he even said, if I was a lay investor and
- 23:40I wasn't doing this, I'd just buy the S&P 500 in a heartbeat. It's crazy. But
- 23:43index funds aren't perfect either. You have to be careful that it
- 23:47doesn't get too concentrated. So right now, the S&P 500 is heavily tech
- 23:50concentrated. Now, it's not such a bad thing. It's okay. But just so you know,
- 23:54it's predominantly built, made up of tech companies because they've
- 23:57done the best. So it's weighted index and they've
- 24:01done well. So if there's a big tech drawdown, the S&P 500 is going
- 24:04to get hit with that. So if there's a big fallout in the AI boom, you're going
- 24:07to see the S&P 500 do pretty badly. If it's done pretty well, don't
- 24:11forget. 8.5% from 2008 to where it was. It's
- 24:14done like 14% in the last 10 years, year in, year out, which is
- 24:17crazy. So there has to be some reversion to the mean. So I anticipate
- 24:21the S&P 500 is going to have a couple of down years or a couple of sideways.
- 24:24It's not going to always be 14%. Okay, not again. And
- 24:28again, I don't know that, but it would, I would anticipate from history that
- 24:31it's going to have some correction. Okay. But with AI and computers
- 24:34who flipping knows. So getting into the final
- 24:38part of this is owning an ETF doesn't automatically mean you diversified
- 24:41because it can be concentrated. And you
- 24:45have to make sure you've got the right index. You have to understand country-specific indexes.
- 24:49You have to understand what's in them. So if you were to own an index, obviously
- 24:53you're going to own perhaps one or two or three, and you want to have some level of
- 24:56country-specific diversification in that sense. But
- 25:00you have to also know that America is like, the
- 25:04size and scale of that market is so big and its ability to win in capitalism
- 25:09is so vast that it is the place to own stocks.
- 25:14It just has the best companies, right? But again, it's based on your
- 25:17objectives. The good thing about indexes is they're simple, they're diversified, low
- 25:20fees, low research, low company-specific risk, and high probability
- 25:24of capturing market returns. That's beautiful. Great, right? Individual
- 25:30stocks would suit someone who loves analyzing businesses. They understand financial statements.
- 25:33They understand valuation. They can tolerate big drawdowns. They've got a long time
- 25:36horizon. They can accept being wrong. They can make mistakes. It's a
- 25:40game. So, it's not whether individual
- 25:43stocks beat index funds, it's which game you prefer to play.
- 25:47That's really what it comes down to, right? Because I own individual stocks, I like playing the game,
- 25:50but again, I understand the power of indexing. And so, most people
- 25:54can beat professionals by indexing, which is such a beautiful thing. It's
- 25:57great. It's awesome, right? So, hopefully that makes sense. You can have a hybrid approach too.
- 26:00You can have a core Index, a core index
- 26:04and a satellite series of companies and stocks you choose. You could do
- 26:07that. That would be sensible. Usually the answer to these questions
- 26:10lies somewhere in the middle. And I think that's pretty sensible. And that's not
- 26:14such a bad way to play it. Because I don't want you missing out on the Nvidia games. At
- 26:17the same time, I wouldn't want you to lose all your money to it. But I think something in
- 26:20the middle makes a lot of sense. And I hope that gives
- 26:23you some value. But coming back to the original stats and what you
- 26:27should be probably focused on is remember, 60% of individual
- 26:30stocks reduce wealth over time and just 46 companies
- 26:33created it. So I hope that helps you
- 26:37make this decision easier, helps make the decision easier what to do. And
- 26:40I like the notion of people who aren't going to do the work. It's
- 26:44all about going where you're not going to die. And that happens to be index funds.
- 26:48And if you look at some of the funds out there, what they can do is quite
- 26:51incredible. You and I have access to those. So if you're wanting
- 26:54to learn more about the details of shares, ins and outs
- 26:58of picking companies and indexes as well, I did a full masterclass
- 27:01breakdown on this show on our YouTube channel. I love it.
- 27:04It's a full hour. You're going to love it. Go back and check it out. It's called Share Masterclass,
- 27:08not meant for the public. Go check it out. It's one of my favorite pieces of content we've ever
- 27:11made. I'm sure you'll agree. and share it with a friend if you want to, if they want to
- 27:15learn. But of course, if you want to just get your money sorted, go check out our book, Money
- 27:18Buys Happiness. I think we've sold over 50,000 copies now, a very popular
- 27:21book. Moneybuyshappinessbook.com is where you can get it. And that's for someone
- 27:25who really just wants to turn their finances around. And if that's you, it's a perfect starting
- 27:28point for you. It's $9, you get some bonuses. And I'll leave
- 27:31it at that. So I hope you've enjoyed Ferrari week. It's been a lot of fun.
- 27:35And if you go check out that episode, that's fun too. But thanks for
- 27:38your attention. Thanks for participating. Hit the subscribe button, share this with
- 27:41a friend, and I'll see you in the comments. And I'll see you in the next episode of the Money Grows on Trees podcast.