Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Everyone Buying The Dip in August📉 September Rally?🚀
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: A couple of things are happening with Bitcoin that could
- 0:09Speaker 1: be setting us up for a very interesting fall. Things
- 0:13Speaker 1: that are also happening with the other giant out there
- 0:15Speaker 1: is Ethereum, also key indicators pointing to a new direction.
- 0:20Speaker 1: So it's going to be a good one today. I think.
- 0:22Speaker 1: One of the things that we got to hit on
- 0:23Speaker 1: though before we get started is our sponsor, and that
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- 0:46Speaker 1: Start your crypto journey over there, and make sure and
- 0:49Speaker 1: use our link down below to get started. Okay, a
- 0:52Speaker 1: couple of things I want to hit at which are
- 0:54Speaker 1: pretty big right now. Cobec coming out with retail investors
- 0:58Speaker 1: being all in. Let me kind of zoom in on
- 0:59Speaker 1: that for you guys. A little bit inflows to us
- 1:02Speaker 1: stock jumped over the last couple of weeks highest levels
- 1:04Speaker 1: in the last twelve months, so activity there on the
- 1:06Speaker 1: SMP aggregate in net retail five day moving average purchase
- 1:10Speaker 1: have more than doubled in a month and hit almost
- 1:13Speaker 1: one point seven billion in the last week. This is
- 1:15Speaker 1: all coming after the negative seven that we saw, which
- 1:19Speaker 1: proved to be a huge by the dipth opportunity, So
- 1:23Speaker 1: inflows continuing to move. Risk appetite for stop stocks overall
- 1:27Speaker 1: still very strong if you take a look at the SMP,
- 1:31Speaker 1: and I think this also starts to play into crypto overall.
- 1:34Speaker 1: Some of the things that you have to compare to
- 1:37Speaker 1: is the risk on sentiment and this may boost right
- 1:40Speaker 1: now if you look at both crypto and gold ahead
- 1:43Speaker 1: of these elections and some of the things that really
- 1:46Speaker 1: play out. I think especially in the elections, you know,
- 1:49Speaker 1: you look at a couple of things. Financial marks is
- 1:51Speaker 1: getting a little crazy, could spill over in a crypto
- 1:53Speaker 1: and gold. I think that could happen, especially if we
- 1:56Speaker 1: see real movement next month in September from the adjusting
- 2:00Speaker 1: rates down and if we see the perfect storm, which
- 2:04Speaker 1: is maybe a gop led election run, a rate cut,
- 2:11Speaker 1: and possibly job pressure because job pressure will put a
- 2:14Speaker 1: little bit of I think movement into risk assets. Add
- 2:18Speaker 1: in the fact that corporations are slashing cash on and
- 2:20Speaker 1: looking at share buybacks. You also have Goldman who's seen
- 2:25Speaker 1: on record demand from clients buying the dips, adding fuel
- 2:29Speaker 1: political tension reflected in the bitcoin skew, which Favors kind
- 2:33Speaker 1: of puts as we approach the election itself, so you
- 2:37Speaker 1: can kind of see there's a very interesting situation brewing here,
- 2:41Speaker 1: and I think this is something that we'll continue to see.
- 2:44Speaker 1: So this may be our last real chance when you
- 2:47Speaker 1: look at the market conditions and what is happening, both
- 2:50Speaker 1: from political landscape, from an economic standpoint, a macro standpoint,
- 2:55Speaker 1: and also the appetite for investors. Is this our last
- 2:58Speaker 1: shot to get bitcoin at fifty k to sixty k ranges?
- 3:02Speaker 1: This is an interesting time. Kobac also comes in a
- 3:05Speaker 1: typical bar. Gold now costs around a million bucks. Over
- 3:09Speaker 1: the past year, the value of value of gold weighing
- 3:12Speaker 1: four un announcers has served by thirty two percent. At
- 3:15Speaker 1: the same time, Spot gold prices closed yesterday at above
- 3:18Speaker 1: twenty five hundred. That's an all time high, so pretty
- 3:21Speaker 1: big deal. Gold markets continue to trade like we're in
- 3:23Speaker 1: a bit of a crisis, which could still be the
- 3:26Speaker 1: case going forward. If you look at the performance of
- 3:29Speaker 1: gold over the last year, I should say, really just
- 3:32Speaker 1: the year to date, Bitcoin holding at about almost a
- 3:35Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty percent gain on year to date
- 3:38Speaker 1: since January, gold up around twenty two percent. So depending
- 3:42Speaker 1: on your risk appetite, those are the kind of scenarios
- 3:45Speaker 1: that you are facing, both of which are actually in
- 3:48Speaker 1: pretty good shape. I want to go over to a
- 3:51Speaker 1: clip real quick, and this will get into a little
- 3:53Speaker 1: bit more detail of why we haven't seen bitcoin really
- 3:57Speaker 1: starting to hit it stride. Take a look.
- 4:00Speaker 2: One thing that's not participating in this move is bitcoin
- 4:02Speaker 2: right now. So you know, it's had a series of
- 4:05Speaker 2: lower hides, a series of lower lows. How do you
- 4:08Speaker 2: explain that disconnect between what gold's doing right now and
- 4:11Speaker 2: the way that Bitcoin's been acting over the last couple months.
- 4:13Speaker 3: Yeah, so a few factors are at play. One is
- 4:16Speaker 3: the unwind of various carry trades and growth, which has
- 4:20Speaker 3: been struggling a little bit. And when you look at
- 4:22Speaker 3: Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq, it's had a two year high,
- 4:26Speaker 3: it's well below the highs that we had in kind
- 4:28Speaker 3: of late twenty twenty two, but it's a two year high.
- 4:31Speaker 3: The second reason is there are four sellers in the market.
- 4:35Speaker 3: The German government has sold all of its bitcoin two
- 4:37Speaker 3: billion dollars worth. The US government is selling Silk Road
- 4:40Speaker 3: related coins. There are two major bankruptcies where creditors have
- 4:44Speaker 3: just been paid out, that's Mount Cox and Genesis. So
- 4:47Speaker 3: with all this foreselling behind us. And this is a
- 4:50Speaker 3: typical seasonal pattern where bitcoin tends to struggle in the
- 4:53Speaker 3: kind of one to three months after the having which
- 4:55Speaker 3: was in April, and right pre election, as the market
- 4:59Speaker 3: comes to grip with whatever candidate wins, we're in for
- 5:02Speaker 3: four more years of reckless fiscal policy. The history is
- 5:07Speaker 3: that bitcoin really hits astride at that point.
- 5:09Speaker 4: So we're buyers here.
- 5:11Speaker 3: We think it recovers.
- 5:13Speaker 1: So Siegull Matthew Siegel there from Benneck, I think he
- 5:16Speaker 1: hits on all the points. You know, he's nailing it
- 5:19Speaker 1: in the sense of timing, the sense of what we've
- 5:22Speaker 1: seen over the last three months. And also the cycle
- 5:25Speaker 1: lined up again like we were talking earlier, with that
- 5:28Speaker 1: perfect storm of potential conditions that could really take bitcoin
- 5:31Speaker 1: and many of digital assets, of the digital assets out
- 5:35Speaker 1: there to a whole new spot, especially for the risk
- 5:40Speaker 1: you know interested out there in the markets as a whole.
- 5:43Speaker 1: I do want to get into it today, and that
- 5:46Speaker 1: is if you guys are not part of our Diamond circle,
- 5:48Speaker 1: make sure and jump in on that which, by the way,
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- 6:04Speaker 1: video because it will help others find a little bit
- 6:06Speaker 1: more about what's going on, and not only crypto market,
- 6:08Speaker 1: but in blockchain in general. If you're not part of
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- 6:12Speaker 1: get additional content. All you have to do is click
- 6:14Speaker 1: the link down below to join. All right, I want
- 6:16Speaker 1: to go on into a couple of other things that
- 6:18Speaker 1: are happening. This is where it gets a little bit
- 6:20Speaker 1: interesting from a political standpoint. And here, of course, as
- 6:24Speaker 1: a bankless guys kind of hitting in at Matthew Foldy's
- 6:26Speaker 1: talking about your reporting that Kamala Harris is likely to
- 6:30Speaker 1: nominate Gary Gensler as a Treasury secretary if she wins,
- 6:34Speaker 1: How reliable are your sources? Because if that's true, if
- 6:37Speaker 1: we saw the Dems take the White House, this would
- 6:40Speaker 1: end crypto in the US, and we might as well,
- 6:42Speaker 1: in their case, flee the country. I don't necessarily think
- 6:45Speaker 1: it's quite that bad, but it's not a good position
- 6:48Speaker 1: to be in. And again, all this is still speculation
- 6:51Speaker 1: because we haven't really seen real clear policy outside of
- 6:55Speaker 1: the list that we saw from the DNC this week
- 6:58Speaker 1: going forward, so maybe we'll see more clarity from these
- 7:02Speaker 1: candidates as they get into some debates. Other things that
- 7:06Speaker 1: are playing into this twenty twenty four election could see
- 7:08Speaker 1: major impact from pro crypto. These are young voters. This
- 7:12Speaker 1: is something that we talk about often, and that is
- 7:14Speaker 1: there is a lot of gen Z and millennials today
- 7:17Speaker 1: which count account for forty percent of the vote forty percent,
- 7:22Speaker 1: and this may be the year that they finally come
- 7:24Speaker 1: out with twenty five percent of voters between eighteen and
- 7:27Speaker 1: thirty four owning crypto and then compared to just fourteen
- 7:31Speaker 1: percent of older Americans. The other thing is I think
- 7:33Speaker 1: this is under reported in terms of the twenty five percent.
- 7:36Speaker 1: I think this is much deeper in terms of what
- 7:39Speaker 1: we will see coming out on pro crypto voters. Remarkably,
- 7:42Speaker 1: these young crypto users are politically divided almost evenly, around
- 7:46Speaker 1: forty one percent identifi as Deems, thirty nine in Republican
- 7:49Speaker 1: and remaining considered the m's independence. That I think plays
- 7:53Speaker 1: out because they are single policy voters, and if it
- 7:56Speaker 1: comes down to it, I think crypto will win that
- 7:59Speaker 1: vote and it may be enough to sway the US
- 8:04Speaker 1: presidential election this year. That's a pretty bold statement to
- 8:08Speaker 1: hit on. If you look at the current tracker, this
- 8:11Speaker 1: is our political tracker sentiment. Again, Trump kind of holding steady,
- 8:15Speaker 1: not blowing up a lot in terms of overall. He's
- 8:18Speaker 1: still holding above seventy three. But if you look at
- 8:20Speaker 1: the Harris campaign really has been falling off since her
- 8:24Speaker 1: policies and or lack of taking debates and giving input
- 8:28Speaker 1: to the crypto community at all, and it has now
- 8:32Speaker 1: fallen to quite a low, which is thirty four h six.
- 8:35Speaker 1: And of course Kennedy is almost outside the map right now,
- 8:38Speaker 1: most likely will be a non issue on this campaign, unfortunately,
- 8:43Speaker 1: because he was very pro crypto candidate. Donald Trump says
- 8:48Speaker 1: he'll also offer Musk a cabinet position if he's elected.
- 8:52Speaker 1: This would be interesting because, as we all know, Elon
- 8:56Speaker 1: operates kind of on the first principles model. He is
- 9:00Speaker 1: known for really getting down to the bare bones in
- 9:03Speaker 1: terms of operating businesses, and I think and also getting
- 9:06Speaker 1: great results in most cases. So if you were to
- 9:09Speaker 1: get in and do something in the US, that would
- 9:12Speaker 1: be pretty cool. Even though I love that AI Department
- 9:15Speaker 1: of Government efficiency do, I'm willing to serve. I love
- 9:20Speaker 1: this is too good, too good. Anyway, I want to
- 9:22Speaker 1: go to a clip real quick. This is a little
- 9:24Speaker 1: bit more on Vance Spencer because he's talking a little
- 9:26Speaker 1: bit more about regulation and the clarity needed. Take a look.
- 9:30Speaker 4: I mean, crypto has only ever existed in a hostile
- 9:33Speaker 4: regulatory environment. Basically from the jump, they've been trying to
- 9:36Speaker 4: stop Crypto and I honestly have lost count of how
- 9:39Speaker 4: many cases there are who they're being fought by or
- 9:42Speaker 4: for it, But it doesn't really matter. I think what's
- 9:44Speaker 4: coming down the pike is legislative clarity, things like the
- 9:46Speaker 4: Stable Point Act, things like FIT twenty one, And if
- 9:50Speaker 4: we get even one of those done, it provides a
- 9:52Speaker 4: legal pathway for DeFi to exist, and it kind of
- 9:55Speaker 4: you know, does away. With all the court cases and
- 9:57Speaker 4: even things like the Chevron doctrine being repealed, you know,
- 10:00Speaker 4: that's going to make it a lot tougher for the
- 10:02Speaker 4: SEC and other regulatory bodies to really go after these
- 10:04Speaker 4: DeFi protocols. But you know, if there's fraud, if there's scams,
- 10:08Speaker 4: if there's people doing bad things, we want those taken
- 10:10Speaker 4: care of. We just want a pathway for innovation.
- 10:12Speaker 5: Peter Chuck Schumer, and he said that he was confident
- 10:14Speaker 5: that we could get one of these bills passed into law,
- 10:16Speaker 5: and now he didn't specify which one, but to have
- 10:20Speaker 5: the Democratic lead kind of throwing his weight behind that.
- 10:23Speaker 5: Certainly a lot of people enthusiastic that we might see
- 10:25Speaker 5: some clarity finally from Capitol Hill.
- 10:28Speaker 4: It's great that it's bipartisan. Little scant on details from
- 10:31Speaker 4: from Chuck from Senator Schumer, but I think, you know,
- 10:34Speaker 4: people are coming around with the idea that crypto is
- 10:36Speaker 4: not dying. The government has tried to kill it at
- 10:39Speaker 4: various points. It didn't work. You know, FTX happened, still
- 10:41Speaker 4: didn't die. If it hasn't gone away by now, it's
- 10:44Speaker 4: probably not going away in general, and it's time for
- 10:46Speaker 4: legislative clarity.
- 10:49Speaker 1: Well, I think the key there again is still and
- 10:51Speaker 1: he mentioned it that, you know, Schumer's position was still
- 10:54Speaker 1: very top coded, very glossy. We don't really have any
- 10:57Speaker 1: details from the Democrats. We've already seen what the Biden
- 11:00Speaker 1: administration is capable of when it comes to crypto, and
- 11:03Speaker 1: he is right, it's been a very hostile environment. Could
- 11:07Speaker 1: that really change? I believe that we are in for
- 11:11Speaker 1: a big challenge if we continue to see the current
- 11:14Speaker 1: administration hold the position, at least based on what we're
- 11:17Speaker 1: hearing so far, that could change, of course, with just
- 11:20Speaker 1: clear policy and clear action. That's all it would take.
- 11:24Speaker 1: And I think that's what American voters are really asking
- 11:26Speaker 1: for when you really bail it down. Ethereum exchange balance
- 11:31Speaker 1: is now hitting record low. The signaling a potential price
- 11:34Speaker 1: explosion on eth ETH has been a little bit slow,
- 11:36Speaker 1: but it has started to move here recently as price
- 11:40Speaker 1: is falling approximately twenty three percent over the past month.
- 11:43Speaker 1: Situation reach a low point around August fifth. Eth the
- 11:46Speaker 1: course dropped down on under twenty two. We've seen some
- 11:49Speaker 1: pretty interesting opportunities. I wonder if you guys had a
- 11:52Speaker 1: chance to get that. Let me know in the comments
- 11:54Speaker 1: down below, are you buying Ethereum at these rates right
- 11:57Speaker 1: now when you look at where ETH is, is this
- 11:59Speaker 1: still some thing that you're very bullish on or are
- 12:02Speaker 1: you shifting your opinion around other projects like Avalanche or
- 12:06Speaker 1: Solana or others out there that are kind of competing.
- 12:09Speaker 1: The Ethereum's exchange balance reached a historic low, falling ten
- 12:13Speaker 1: percent blow for the first time ever, surpassing Bitcoin and
- 12:16Speaker 1: exchanges hole around eighteen point seventy eight million Eth approximately
- 12:19Speaker 1: fifty bill so down twenty one million Eth on the
- 12:23Speaker 1: same day last year. So pretty interesting. I think people
- 12:27Speaker 1: are buckling in for a big run on it. So
- 12:29Speaker 1: sharp decline and eth held on exchanges could signal maybe
- 12:33Speaker 1: a price movement here, and it would be I think
- 12:36Speaker 1: a little bit overdue. I still feel that eth is
- 12:39Speaker 1: well under price. I feel like ETH, based on where
- 12:41Speaker 1: Bitcoin is right now, should be in the low three
- 12:45Speaker 1: thousand marks, but we have not been able to really
- 12:47Speaker 1: crack that number much this year. I want to go
- 12:49Speaker 1: to another clip. This is Van Spencer going a little
- 12:52Speaker 1: deeper on where the vcs are putting their money.
- 12:55Speaker 5: Take a look, but with respect to the Bitcoin ecosystem
- 12:58Speaker 5: in particular. I feel like earlier this year there was
- 13:00Speaker 5: all this excitement around L two projects that we're building,
- 13:04Speaker 5: a lot of unprecedented deal activity happening specifically within bitcoin.
- 13:08Speaker 5: I'm talking to other vcs about this. Has that momentum
- 13:12Speaker 5: maintained itself or have you seen is there less excitement
- 13:16Speaker 5: specifically in bitcoin?
- 13:17Speaker 4: I thin think momentum is sustaining. All these projects have
- 13:19Speaker 4: yet to really launch, and so we'll kind of we're
- 13:21Speaker 4: kind of in like a wait and see type scenario
- 13:23Speaker 4: for the next six months. But I think these projects
- 13:26Speaker 4: are going to ride the wave of enthusiasm and flows
- 13:28Speaker 4: from tradfy into both Bitcoin and ethan. Every cycle, people
- 13:32Speaker 4: say that Bitcoin is the thing we're going to do
- 13:34Speaker 4: this cycle, and nobody's going to go on any other
- 13:35Speaker 4: chains and we'll stay there forever. I just don't see
- 13:38Speaker 4: that being the case. The world is multi chain, Ethereum
- 13:41Speaker 4: has a dominant L two ecosystem, and so we see
- 13:43Speaker 4: more excitement on the east side than Bitcoin. But you know,
- 13:46Speaker 4: those are kind of the two main horses for this cycle.
- 13:49Speaker 1: Totally agree with that. I will say this though, that
- 13:51Speaker 1: when you look at the big money and where they're
- 13:56Speaker 1: really sliding into it, still has been pushing a little
- 13:59Speaker 1: bit into the coin ETFs, and I'm talking about people
- 14:01Speaker 1: who have never been invested in crypto. That's going to
- 14:03Speaker 1: be a big part of people who are going to
- 14:06Speaker 1: be coming into the market. So we're still going to
- 14:08Speaker 1: see that. Could we see the more advanced investor go
- 14:11Speaker 1: the e throughout, Yeah, I totally think it could. But
- 14:14Speaker 1: I think it's going to be more of people that
- 14:16Speaker 1: are drinking the kool aid, people that are already understanding
- 14:18Speaker 1: the eth ecosystem. I think that's where the growth is
- 14:20Speaker 1: going to come from. And do we see a lot
- 14:23Speaker 1: of startups and possible more VC investment into the space. Yes,
- 14:27Speaker 1: I think he is definitely dead on with that. TRADFI
- 14:30Speaker 1: giant State Street now initiating crypto custom tokenization services for
- 14:35Speaker 1: intitional investors.
- 14:36Speaker 4: So this is just.
- 14:36Speaker 1: Further into the point that we are not going to
- 14:39Speaker 1: see this going away because Wall Street has showed up
- 14:42Speaker 1: and right now we're looking at an asset manager where
- 14:44Speaker 1: four trillion in assets now announcing it's partner with trus
- 14:48Speaker 1: and this is a strategic collaboration that will automate the
- 14:52Speaker 1: issuance of serving servicing digital assets, including tokenized securities and
- 14:57Speaker 1: funge management vehicles. Remember, Blackrock has already got this moving
- 15:01Speaker 1: with their partnership with securitized which we've had on the
- 15:03Speaker 1: show before and Biddle. So if you guys have not
- 15:07Speaker 1: watched that, go back and watch some of our videos
- 15:09Speaker 1: on Biddle and Securitize. This will give you a much
- 15:12Speaker 1: better understanding of what these fund managers are trying to
- 15:15Speaker 1: do around token is securities. All right, here's Bitcoin ETF
- 15:18Speaker 1: trading volume hitting its lows, a mid market uncertainty, and
- 15:21Speaker 1: you've got to remember a couple of things that are
- 15:22Speaker 1: happening here. This, of course, is trading volume plummeting to
- 15:25Speaker 1: seven earn seventy nine million, significant drop. Again, this was
- 15:29Speaker 1: on August sixth, and the downturn diminished market enthusiasm followed
- 15:34Speaker 1: recent sell offs, and again this gets back into these
- 15:36Speaker 1: seasonal factors. And some of this is again back to
- 15:39Speaker 1: the hedge funds that don't do a lot of activity
- 15:42Speaker 1: within the summer months, and in many cases they're placing
- 15:45Speaker 1: a lot of these bats out you know, ninety days
- 15:47Speaker 1: in events, and they're also looking at strategies that are
- 15:51Speaker 1: you know, toward the end of the month so or
- 15:52Speaker 1: end of the year, so that is one of the things.
- 15:54Speaker 1: You see these lags in the summer months, and then
- 15:56Speaker 1: you get retail that kind of follow us along with
- 15:58Speaker 1: that actually around some of things like summer vacation, schools, etc.
- 16:03Speaker 1: And just people not necessarily active at least here in
- 16:05Speaker 1: the US. Once you move outside the US, it is
- 16:08Speaker 1: a twenty four to seven market, so maybe that is
- 16:11Speaker 1: going to start to have a little bit more push
- 16:12Speaker 1: on it. Van K of course, is defying the SEC.
- 16:15Speaker 1: This is all based on their Salana ETF. They are
- 16:18Speaker 1: pushing ahead despite some roadblocks coming in a couple of points.
- 16:21Speaker 1: That was Matthew Siegel that we showed earlier in a
- 16:24Speaker 1: clip who is leading this topic, and he even talked
- 16:27Speaker 1: about it in his tweet right there. But venex announcement
- 16:30Speaker 1: on Salon's value increasing significantly, reflecting growth and interest on
- 16:34Speaker 1: Solana as a viable investment option. But he stated in
- 16:37Speaker 1: this tweet right here, some have noticed that the nineteen
- 16:39Speaker 1: four or nineteen be four for van x Slana has
- 16:42Speaker 1: been removed from the CBOE website. Remember that exchanges like
- 16:46Speaker 1: Nasdaq CBOE file rule changes and list new ETF issuers.
- 16:52Speaker 1: All that's been in play. They're saying that, don't panic.
- 16:55Speaker 1: We're still pushing forward on all of this, so we'll
- 16:58Speaker 1: see if Solana continues to hold the position. It has
- 17:01Speaker 1: not been you know, when we look at it, because
- 17:03Speaker 1: we track sentiment on Salona as ETF and it has
- 17:06Speaker 1: not been anything that has been skyrocketing. But at the
- 17:08Speaker 1: same time, we have not seen a big fall off
- 17:10Speaker 1: on it, so there's still is interest and I think
- 17:12Speaker 1: that's the key. This could come out of nowhere, much
- 17:15Speaker 1: like the ethereum ETF came out of nowhere and we
- 17:17Speaker 1: just got an ETHATF and it started moving. If you're
- 17:21Speaker 1: not following me on X mixture and do that, it's
- 17:23Speaker 1: just at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right
- 17:25Speaker 1: here on tech Path