Latest / Financial Survival Network / Silver Breaks $40 – David Morgan Explains #6323

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Silver Breaks $40 – David Morgan Explains #6323 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Speaker 1: If you build a base, now you've got support, it
0:02
Speaker 1: goes a little higher, and building up other base you
0:05
Speaker 1: have support that goes up again. And I call it
0:08
Speaker 1: grinding higher. And that's what we're seeing here over the
0:12
Speaker 1: last several months. It's kind of just ground higher and higher.
0:15
Speaker 1: People get a little disgusted. It's going sideways. Oh, it
0:17
Speaker 1: can't get above thirty five? Oh man, thirty five?
0:20
Speaker 2: Is it all?
0:21
Speaker 1: Thirty five? Thirty five? Thirty And all of a sudden
0:23
Speaker 1: it's thirty seven, you know, staying there and then you know.
0:26
Speaker 1: So this is what I expect. You're listening to.
0:28
Speaker 3: Carrie let'sa's financial Survival Network where you get valuable information
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0:37
Speaker 3: trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more
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0:51
Speaker 2: Than ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm
0:59
Speaker 2: your host, Carrie Let's. You're watching myself and David Morgan
1:04
Speaker 2: the Moorganreport dot com. When I want info on silver,
1:09
Speaker 2: when I want I really know what's happening, there's only
1:11
Speaker 2: one person I think of, and that is you, David Morgan, Hey,
1:18
Speaker 2: what can we say about silver? You know it's now
1:21
Speaker 2: trading the highest it's been since twenty eleven. We broke forty,
1:26
Speaker 2: we even broke forty one. And I know you're of
1:30
Speaker 2: a conservative bent, But what your gut telling you? Is
1:33
Speaker 2: this the real deal? Or are we going to get
1:35
Speaker 2: a head fake again?
1:37
Speaker 1: Well, I'll let the market decide. I mean, I'm a
1:39
Speaker 1: big believer. I've said so many times that the market
1:42
Speaker 1: knows more than any of us. But having said that,
1:46
Speaker 1: you know, all I need to do is see a
1:48
Speaker 1: couple closes above forty, you know, a couple more days
1:51
Speaker 1: in a row, and that's confirmation that it's a breakout.
1:54
Speaker 1: I do think it probably is, and there's a much
1:57
Speaker 1: upside resistance above the forty level. If you look back
2:01
Speaker 1: in history, you know, the nineteen eighty high was intra
2:06
Speaker 1: day and the fifty I'm talking about, or fifty two
2:09
Speaker 1: to fifty was I think the clothes on the Chicago Exchange. Regardless,
2:14
Speaker 1: that was very momentary. And then in twenty eleven, when
2:18
Speaker 1: we didn't quite hit fifty, but we did trade above
2:21
Speaker 1: forty four a month and a half. In another couple
2:24
Speaker 1: of months if you look at the chart. So maybe
2:26
Speaker 1: I don't know three and a half months. I haven't
2:28
Speaker 1: studied it to the day, but it isn't a lot
2:31
Speaker 1: of trading that went on above this level. So now
2:34
Speaker 1: we have to build a base probably or we could
2:37
Speaker 1: shoot up. But I'm thinking we're going to kind of, hopefully,
2:39
Speaker 1: in my opinion, stair step up. And the reason I
2:43
Speaker 1: say that is you really don't want a parabolic move
2:45
Speaker 1: at this stage of the last leg up in the
2:48
Speaker 1: precious metals, which means if it goes parabolic, you know,
2:52
Speaker 1: like throwing up tennis ball in the air, what goes
2:54
Speaker 1: up must come down. If you build a base, now
2:57
Speaker 1: you've got support, it goes a little higher. And building
2:59
Speaker 1: up you have support that goes up again, and I
3:03
Speaker 1: call it grinding higher. And that's what we've seen here
3:06
Speaker 1: over you know, the last several months. It's kind of
3:09
Speaker 1: just ground higher and higher. People get a little disgusted.
3:11
Speaker 1: It's going sideways. Oh, it can't get above thirty five?
3:14
Speaker 1: Oh man, thirty five is it?
3:16
Speaker 2: Oh?
3:16
Speaker 1: Thirty five, thirty five, fifty And all of a sudden
3:18
Speaker 1: it's thirty seven, you know, staying there and then you
3:21
Speaker 1: know so this is what I expect. I don't feel
3:26
Speaker 1: that we're going to get to fifty this year, but
3:29
Speaker 1: you know, I'm happy if we do. But I'd rather
3:32
Speaker 1: see what I just said that we kind of just
3:33
Speaker 1: grind up over you know, current day to the end
3:37
Speaker 1: of the year and build that base. They get more
3:40
Speaker 1: and more participation where people get used to the idea
3:43
Speaker 1: that silver is at forty forty two, forty three, forty four,
3:46
Speaker 1: forty five, forty five, forty five, forty five, and it
3:49
Speaker 1: keeps going. And of course it's up and down, as
3:51
Speaker 1: we both know, but generally moving on it.
3:55
Speaker 2: Well, I feel confident saying it's a breakout, although you
3:58
Speaker 2: do a lot more than I do. You got a
4:00
Speaker 2: few more years in this space than me, a lot
4:03
Speaker 2: more years. But I'm looking at the price of gold today.
4:06
Speaker 2: Broke thirty five hundred thirty five thirty four according to Kitko.
4:10
Speaker 2: If you can believe what they tell you, which generally
4:14
Speaker 2: spot market, it's pretty spot on, no pun intended. And
4:17
Speaker 2: silver broke that forty one in the access market. That
4:23
Speaker 2: was something I wanted to talk to you about. But
4:24
Speaker 2: right now, as of the ten AM fixed forty dollars
4:29
Speaker 2: and eighty three cents. Now, last Friday was the last
4:34
Speaker 2: trading day of August for netals, and that's always a
4:39
Speaker 2: significant day, and silver didn't make it over forty and
4:45
Speaker 2: one could aver or allege that the powers that be
4:49
Speaker 2: were painting the tape. But then in the access market
4:54
Speaker 2: over the weekend, on yesterday or the day before, it
4:59
Speaker 2: broke four forty bucks without a hesitation. So which makes
5:04
Speaker 2: me wonder is the COMEX losing its ability to control
5:11
Speaker 2: these markets?
5:14
Speaker 1: Well, I would say somewhat. First of all, you know,
5:18
Speaker 1: there's so much controversy within the metals community. I mean,
5:23
Speaker 1: there's staunch, there's no manipulation, there's staunched, there is only manipulation.
5:29
Speaker 1: And then there's people like me that have a different view,
5:33
Speaker 1: differing view, and that is you cannot manipulate the long
5:37
Speaker 1: term trend. Within that trend, you certainly can manage the
5:41
Speaker 1: price from time to time, and that's been proven, to
5:44
Speaker 1: my satisfaction by what Adrian Douglas did at GATA.
5:49
Speaker 2: I reread his paper on.
5:51
Speaker 1: It and what we did in the silver manifesto talking
5:54
Speaker 1: about the sharps ratio. But I don't want to go
5:56
Speaker 1: too far down that path. You asked the direct question.
5:58
Speaker 1: Let me answer it as possible. Whether they did it
6:01
Speaker 1: or not, I don't know. What I do know is
6:03
Speaker 1: that and the access market is where most of the
6:06
Speaker 1: time you'll see unusual trading activity. In terms of volume,
6:13
Speaker 1: it's a smaller market. And anytime you put a large
6:18
Speaker 1: sell on anything, be it a stock, be a commodity,
6:21
Speaker 1: be it used cars, be it houses, where you say, well,
6:26
Speaker 1: we've got this inventory, we want to dump it all
6:28
Speaker 1: sell they now, the price is going to drop, especially
6:33
Speaker 1: if you do it in a fin market, which is
6:36
Speaker 1: the access market, because orders have to match. So if
6:40
Speaker 1: you've got forty two dollars silver and you get an
6:46
Speaker 1: abnormally large volume like five, six, seven, eight times a
6:49
Speaker 1: normal volume, how do you match those orders? The answer
6:53
Speaker 1: you don't. I mean you've got to go from forty
6:55
Speaker 1: three and aay down to thirty eight before all the
6:58
Speaker 1: orders line up.
7:00
Speaker 2: And some of those orders, I.
7:01
Speaker 1: Would tell you confidently, are not participants that are overseas.
7:08
Speaker 1: There are people on the other exchanges that are waiting
7:11
Speaker 1: to catch their own sort sale to close out their position.
7:15
Speaker 1: This happens all the time.
7:16
Speaker 2: People don't think.
7:17
Speaker 1: That way, but that's exactly how it works. So there
7:21
Speaker 1: is that part of it. I will not back down
7:24
Speaker 1: on that fact. I mean spoofing. You know, think about
7:28
Speaker 1: the manipulation and the many directions. So I'm on a roll.
7:31
Speaker 1: But you know, if you go to somebody that's more
7:33
Speaker 1: establishing than myself, and you absolutely go into though the
7:41
Speaker 1: law the let's say what was written as a verdict,
7:47
Speaker 1: you will not find a word manipulation. You'll find a
7:50
Speaker 1: word spoofing. So you could argue as a lawyer, and
7:53
Speaker 1: I know you have a legal background greater in mind,
7:55
Speaker 1: I have contract law only. I got an A in
7:57
Speaker 1: the class for.
7:57
Speaker 2: Whatever that's worth.
8:00
Speaker 1: Manipulation isn't in there, So I could go in the course,
8:02
Speaker 1: there's no manipulation. Here's all the proof. You're on her,
8:04
Speaker 1: and i'mderlying all the spoof Well, spoofing is no spoofy
8:08
Speaker 1: is a manipulation. So you get in that semantics argument, right.
8:12
Speaker 1: The point being is spoofing has been proven time and
8:16
Speaker 1: time again. I consider to be managing the market, so
8:20
Speaker 1: I'm using a different word your honor and life goes on.
8:24
Speaker 1: And then you've got the argument, and I think it's
8:26
Speaker 1: a justifiable argument. Well happens in all the markets. That's
8:29
Speaker 1: probably true. I mean you've seen it happen in the
8:32
Speaker 1: wheat market. You've seen it happen the oil market. Oil
8:35
Speaker 1: is about as managers as the metals market, as far
8:37
Speaker 1: as our data shows or the data shows us.
8:40
Speaker 2: Let me reframe that.
8:42
Speaker 1: And that is and this isn't like new I mean markets.
8:46
Speaker 1: I mean we you know, read Jesse Livermore's book, you know,
8:50
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not new to markets when people
8:53
Speaker 1: could get an edge over each other, insider trading, the
8:56
Speaker 1: whisper thing, seeing the crop report before anyone else. I mean,
9:00
Speaker 1: this is not like you know, oh my goodness, it
9:03
Speaker 1: just started or it started in nineteen seventy nine or whatever.
9:06
Speaker 1: Come on, this is human nature, pitsland. It's on another
9:10
Speaker 1: they're going to do. Sorry, I mean, there's something that
9:13
Speaker 1: won't lay here.
9:14
Speaker 2: I shopped, yeah so so, but yeah, the long run,
9:20
Speaker 2: but if they could keep doing it in the short run,
9:24
Speaker 2: eventually it will catch up to them. But what is
9:28
Speaker 2: the short run? Is it a week? Is it a day?
9:31
Speaker 2: Is it a month? Six months? Six years? The game
9:36
Speaker 2: has been a foot for a long long time here,
9:39
Speaker 2: whatever the game is that they're playing, and no intelligent
9:44
Speaker 2: minds can have differing opinions but certainly spoofing prices. I mean,
9:50
Speaker 2: JP Morgan only paid a nine hundred and twenty million
9:53
Speaker 2: there and they didn't protest too much about it. Maybe
9:58
Speaker 2: there is a plan, maybe there's but for our purposes here,
10:01
Speaker 2: it's not really relevant, is it.
10:04
Speaker 1: Well, again, if you go back to my premise that
10:07
Speaker 1: you can't manage the launch or manipulate the long term trend,
10:11
Speaker 1: I think if you keep that in mind and keep
10:13
Speaker 1: and also keep the right amount, you know, I think
10:15
Speaker 1: one of the problems with a lot of the metals
10:17
Speaker 1: heads out there, and you know, maybe I misled people.
10:21
Speaker 1: None of that was ever deliberate. I always said, basically
10:24
Speaker 1: ten percent enough for most people of plenty if you're aggressive,
10:27
Speaker 1: so that means you got eighty percent and whatever, real estate,
10:30
Speaker 1: the stock market, private business, you know, art, I don't care.
10:35
Speaker 1: You don't want to really load up too much in
10:37
Speaker 1: the metals, and there's some such as myself Mike Maloney,
10:39
Speaker 1: that really are overweighted. But it's our specialty and we're
10:42
Speaker 1: comfortable there. But most people aren't comfortable, especially when I
10:46
Speaker 1: see you know, Tesla taking off or their you know,
10:50
Speaker 1: brother in law's got a rental apartment that's doubled the
10:53
Speaker 1: rental price in the last five years long, so do it.
10:56
Speaker 1: There's no The reason I started what I did was
10:59
Speaker 1: I and know or new that a hedge was required
11:04
Speaker 1: going into a monetary crisis. But I didn't know if
11:06
Speaker 1: the crisis was ten years out, twenty years out, of
11:09
Speaker 1: thirty years out, and I missed times it. I'll admit
11:11
Speaker 1: that I thought it would be sooner than it is now.
11:13
Speaker 1: But we're really entering in to the place where almost
11:17
Speaker 1: all investors are waking up to the fact that something
11:22
Speaker 1: is a right in the monetary system, and we're just
11:24
Speaker 1: starting to see an exit out of or rotation out
11:28
Speaker 1: of stocks of the only place to be the only
11:30
Speaker 1: go up. I'm just going to keep doing an index
11:33
Speaker 1: trading into you know what, I like gold, or I
11:36
Speaker 1: want some gold, or I want to move some of
11:37
Speaker 1: my profits in the gold. And that's already started. Of course,
11:41
Speaker 1: it started a few years back with the central banks,
11:44
Speaker 1: but now starting to move into the top tier. Let's
11:49
Speaker 1: say the elites that have you know, gobs and gobs
11:52
Speaker 1: of stock. They're selling off, you know, a billion dollars
11:55
Speaker 1: worth of their shares and quietly moving into precious moments.
11:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a kind of an inevitability to
12:02
Speaker 2: it all, don't you think I do.
12:04
Speaker 1: I mean, this cycle has been gone through time and
12:07
Speaker 1: time again. It's just never been a worldwide phenomena. I mean,
12:11
Speaker 1: no one knows that better than you know, Martin Armstrong.
12:14
Speaker 1: I mean he knows it better than I. But you know,
12:17
Speaker 1: in other realms, you could have escaped to a different
12:20
Speaker 1: country or a different currency and kind of protected yourself.
12:23
Speaker 1: This way, there's really no out out of the US dollar.
12:28
Speaker 1: Yes there's the bricks, but they really don't have an
12:30
Speaker 1: official currency, and I don't think there's a way to
12:32
Speaker 1: hiden the currency. Marty may disagree with me, but I
12:35
Speaker 1: think gold as he says, it's not me he's necessarily
12:38
Speaker 1: an inflation heads. It's a government hedge. When trusted government
12:42
Speaker 1: breaks down, it's breaking down on a global basis. It's
12:45
Speaker 1: not just you know, the constitutional republic that we purportedly have,
12:50
Speaker 1: which is broken down years ago. You look at democracies,
12:53
Speaker 1: you look at you know, socialist systems across the board.
12:57
Speaker 1: You're seeing people that are disgusted with their leadership.
13:01
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, well, you know, the game has always been
13:06
Speaker 2: the same here, and I just think it's interesting that
13:10
Speaker 2: we finally reached this point. I mean I felt like
13:12
Speaker 2: we were coming here back when Silver broke thirty two
13:16
Speaker 2: dollars that seemed to have been a key resistance point.
13:20
Speaker 2: Thirty two fifty broke through there. Then it played around
13:24
Speaker 2: here for a good six months before we got to
13:26
Speaker 2: this point. I think it was back in May when
13:30
Speaker 2: Silver or maybe April Silver hit thirty two bucks, I
13:34
Speaker 2: don't remember off the top of my head. But yeah,
13:38
Speaker 2: so resistance ahead. What what's the next resistance point? It's
13:46
Speaker 2: got to be fifty bucks, right or forty nine to fifty. Yeah,
13:49
Speaker 2: that's a psychological resistance. I mean, nineteen eighty its stayed
13:53
Speaker 2: there for minutes on the floor, tat say an hour
13:56
Speaker 2: or so. You go back to twenty eleven, at actually
14:00
Speaker 2: didn't even hit fifty to hit the high high high forties.
14:03
Speaker 2: Stayed there momentarily, and it lasted just a few days.
14:07
Speaker 2: So it's psychological.
14:09
Speaker 1: There'd be probably algorithms that say, you know, sell out
14:12
Speaker 1: at forty nine twenty two to fifty one eighty three,
14:16
Speaker 1: whatever the you know, whatever's in the computer, and I
14:20
Speaker 1: think that will happen. Now that's a guess, it's an
14:24
Speaker 1: educated guess. But it doesn't really prove anything. I do
14:28
Speaker 1: think it'll stall out because of the psychological resistance, but
14:31
Speaker 1: there isn't really any true resistance there. I mean, as
14:34
Speaker 1: far as you know, it's you know, having days and
14:39
Speaker 1: weeks and months at that level and the never getting
14:42
Speaker 1: beyond it, which we have seen and overcome as you outline.
14:45
Speaker 1: So really I think it's a psychological barrier only I
14:49
Speaker 1: do think it'll take place. I think it'll be momentary,
14:52
Speaker 1: meaning you know, days, weeks, I don't think, you know,
14:54
Speaker 1: a couple of months maybe, and then I think we'll
14:57
Speaker 1: get through it the next time. And the next time
14:59
Speaker 1: we do stay there under the more been rull three
15:03
Speaker 1: four days in a row on big volume, on clothes only,
15:06
Speaker 1: we're probably off to fifty five, sixty sixty five, who knows,
15:10
Speaker 1: But it will be very interesting to see what happens
15:14
Speaker 1: once it reaches the fifty level and we start seeing
15:17
Speaker 1: a fifty handle where it's not three days, it's three weeks,
15:21
Speaker 1: and then it's three months, and then it's you know whatever.
15:23
Speaker 1: So looking forward to that day, it is ahead of
15:26
Speaker 1: us as far as I can ascertain.
15:28
Speaker 2: Time will tell you know, I bought most of my
15:32
Speaker 2: silver right after the crash, after the collapse, when metal
15:36
Speaker 2: markets really got wasted, gold was trading as low as
15:42
Speaker 2: seven hundred. Premiums were up. You know, premiums are asi
15:45
Speaker 2: as ten percent, and I bought silver right around at
15:49
Speaker 2: the same time for eight to ten dollars an ounce,
15:51
Speaker 2: sometimes a little cheaper than that. So I've never really
15:55
Speaker 2: ever thought of disposing of my physical at what point,
16:00
Speaker 2: because you know, people get greedy and just like people
16:04
Speaker 2: like me who sold their bitcoin at six hundred dollars
16:07
Speaker 2: and thought they were cleaning up, we don't want to
16:11
Speaker 2: be in that situation.
16:13
Speaker 1: It's a tough call, Kerrie. First of all, David Smith
16:17
Speaker 1: and I wrote a book, Second Chance, and it talks
16:20
Speaker 1: about how to take profits, and there's several ways to
16:24
Speaker 1: do it. One thing that you got that I think about,
16:27
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's voiced that often in the community,
16:30
Speaker 1: and that is so as long as we're in a
16:34
Speaker 1: dollar system.
16:35
Speaker 2: I put that in a quotation.
16:36
Speaker 1: Mark's not a you know, definition of a dollar, which
16:39
Speaker 1: is a weight of silver, but in the parlance of
16:42
Speaker 1: a februaryserve note, you've got to look at the history
16:45
Speaker 1: that we have in modern times, the nearer term is
16:48
Speaker 1: more important for trading than the long term. So golds
16:54
Speaker 1: out of the ground all in sustaining costs, they can
16:57
Speaker 1: make a round number about eighteen hundreds if you double
17:00
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred to come out with thirty six. So right
17:03
Speaker 1: now gold is trading about double what the ais C is.
17:08
Speaker 1: So if we apply that same metric to silver, you
17:11
Speaker 1: all sustaining costs somewhere around twenty six and around it
17:15
Speaker 1: up to twenty eight. Double that, that's fifty six. So
17:18
Speaker 1: we get to fifty six. We have the same metric
17:23
Speaker 1: that we do in gold, meaning the all in sustaining
17:25
Speaker 1: costs is two x what the you know, the price
17:30
Speaker 1: is two x what the all.
17:31
Speaker 2: In sustaining cost is.
17:33
Speaker 1: Now, if we're just still trading in dollars, which we
17:35
Speaker 1: probably will be, or federal reserve notes, how high is
17:39
Speaker 1: it going to go within you know, within that realm?
17:44
Speaker 1: In other words, unless you get a breakdown, which you
17:47
Speaker 1: can of one or two things. One you could lose
17:50
Speaker 1: faith in the dollar altogether, which is happening more and
17:53
Speaker 1: more rapidly all the time, and that means converting those
17:56
Speaker 1: thud reserve notes into hard assets, especially the Prentice metal,
18:00
Speaker 1: you will push the price higher and higher could go
18:02
Speaker 1: to absurd levels.
18:04
Speaker 2: However, that could be.
18:07
Speaker 1: A momentary event, just like it was in nineteen eighty
18:11
Speaker 1: eighty twenty eleven, especially if there is a new monetary
18:15
Speaker 1: system that's right around the corner, meaning they're going to
18:19
Speaker 1: reprice everything in the new digital currency. So I don't
18:23
Speaker 1: want to get too wrapped up in the one hundred
18:27
Speaker 1: dollars five hundred dollars one thousand dollars silver or whatever
18:30
Speaker 1: some of these numbers are out there. I want to
18:32
Speaker 1: take a more practical view of what's the economy doing.
18:35
Speaker 1: Are we in a blowoff inflationary mode? Are we looking
18:41
Speaker 1: at something more of a debt liquidating liquidity squeeze where
18:45
Speaker 1: the bond market gets forced lower because the interest rates
18:48
Speaker 1: take off on their own, regardless of what the discount
18:51
Speaker 1: window is set up by the Thuld Reserve Board, And
18:54
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, people can't buy groceries or.
18:56
Speaker 2: Pay their electric bill. What are they going to do?
18:59
Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is an out living out. I'm
19:01
Speaker 1: not ruling out a deflationary type of scenario that could
19:06
Speaker 1: be temporary before a hyperinflationary blowoff or it takes hold
19:10
Speaker 1: in it goes that direction. Which means you've got to
19:13
Speaker 1: watch the market closely and price it accordingly.
19:16
Speaker 2: So let me do a real quick example.
19:18
Speaker 1: Let's say the SMP goes from sixty four hundred or
19:22
Speaker 1: thereabouts down to five thousand, So whatever that is thirty
19:25
Speaker 1: percent loss, I can't do that math in my head
19:27
Speaker 1: that well, and then gold stays to goes to five thousand.
19:31
Speaker 1: Now we got a one to one SMP.
19:35
Speaker 2: To gold.
19:36
Speaker 1: Well, now that piece of gold hasn't really changed.
19:39
Speaker 2: The price has. But what does it buy?
19:40
Speaker 1: What buys a lot more companies than it used to?
19:43
Speaker 1: What if it buys more housing than it used to,
19:45
Speaker 1: What if it buys more automobiles than it used to?
19:47
Speaker 1: And that's what I'm looking for, because people want to
19:49
Speaker 1: get a numerical price. But as the inflation or depreciations
19:54
Speaker 1: a better term of the dollar continues, you're looking at
19:58
Speaker 1: a shrink unit. You don't really know what the price is,
20:04
Speaker 1: meaning it's the value, which means you've got to compare
20:07
Speaker 1: it to other goods and services. So let's say, for example,
20:12
Speaker 1: we do start to see a lot of backing down
20:16
Speaker 1: in the equity side, and even the bond market starts
20:19
Speaker 1: to have more and more.
20:20
Speaker 2: Problems now what do we do.
20:22
Speaker 1: Well, we evaluate what the value is of those metals
20:26
Speaker 1: and how much they've appreciated against all their asset classes.
20:29
Speaker 1: And if that's the case and the price remains the same,
20:32
Speaker 1: the value has increased. And now what do we do well?
20:36
Speaker 1: I think you use some logic, you say, you know what,
20:38
Speaker 1: I'm going to take some profits here. I plan to
20:41
Speaker 1: filter out on the way up, not get too greedy.
20:44
Speaker 1: I know from trading futures for a living how difficult
20:48
Speaker 1: it is. And always sell in the strength and not say,
20:51
Speaker 1: oh my god, I sold it at fifty five in
20:53
Speaker 1: the day. At sixty, well I didn't sell at all,
20:56
Speaker 1: and it's still selling in the strength, and I still
20:59
Speaker 1: have some powder. I might sell some more at sixty
21:02
Speaker 1: or whatever. But there's a plan or plans outlined in
21:05
Speaker 1: that book. To think you're going to get the very
21:08
Speaker 1: tippy top. That's an amateurs game. You don't want to
21:11
Speaker 1: play that game. You want to be a professional. You
21:13
Speaker 1: want to get out within hopefully twenty percent of the top,
21:17
Speaker 1: and at the top is one hundred, twenty percent of
21:19
Speaker 1: that is eighty.
21:20
Speaker 2: So if you got out.
21:21
Speaker 1: At sixty seventy eighty and it went to one hundred,
21:24
Speaker 1: and you got some out at ninety let's say, at
21:26
Speaker 1: peaks and it starts to fall ninety eighty, you sell
21:29
Speaker 1: off the rest. You're convinced that the peaks here, everybody's selling,
21:32
Speaker 1: and call the dealers. I'm selling. Well, we're going to discount.
21:35
Speaker 1: You discount.
21:37
Speaker 2: What do you mean?
21:37
Speaker 1: So it was it ninety, Well, we've got so many sellers,
21:39
Speaker 1: we're just cutting you to eighty bucks, which is what
21:42
Speaker 1: happened in the nineteen eighty run up. The dealers in
21:45
Speaker 1: La bid backed about thirty five, even though the futures
21:49
Speaker 1: price was hitty in fifty.
21:51
Speaker 2: Momentarily, yep, no, I just remember what Bernard Beruk said
21:56
Speaker 2: that he got rich letting the other guy make the
21:59
Speaker 2: last ten percent. And you know you can't expect to
22:04
Speaker 2: get out at the top here. You're a professional, you
22:06
Speaker 2: know you've been doing this your whole life, and you're
22:09
Speaker 2: saying you can't get out at the top. How does
22:12
Speaker 2: that work for me? It can't be done. But on
22:15
Speaker 2: the other hand, you might always want to keep core
22:17
Speaker 2: holding right, but my person power goes up so much
22:22
Speaker 2: that you can buy other assets that historically were overvalued
22:26
Speaker 2: for undervaluation. That's what you're saying, right, So if you
22:30
Speaker 2: can buy a house for a thousand ounces of silver,
22:34
Speaker 2: say just as a for instance, maybe you do that right, right,
22:40
Speaker 2: And I think there's a legacy, you know.
22:42
Speaker 1: I mean you listen to Jim rickcards and a lot
22:44
Speaker 1: of respect for Jim, and you know what are the
22:47
Speaker 1: legacy investments? The lands lamb, golden and fine art are collectibles.
22:53
Speaker 1: So you know, most people are out of the collectibles thing.
22:56
Speaker 1: That's for pretty much the very rich. The gold is
22:59
Speaker 1: accessible to almost start everyone these days in real estate.
23:02
Speaker 1: And so I would definitely for a legacy toward my
23:05
Speaker 1: kids and my granddaughter pass on some you know, some
23:09
Speaker 1: precious metals. I probably never sell it all, but certainly
23:13
Speaker 1: when it gets overvalued relative to other things. Again I
23:17
Speaker 1: say overvalued, maybe not correctly priced in the imagination of
23:22
Speaker 1: you know some people. I mean, so when you get
23:25
Speaker 1: to the hyperinflation, the prices are relevant. I mean, in Zimbabwe,
23:30
Speaker 1: the one hundred trillion dollar bills never hit circulation. The
23:36
Speaker 1: currency had failed before those bills were allowed to circulate,
23:39
Speaker 1: So you know what good were they?
23:40
Speaker 2: They weren't.
23:41
Speaker 1: They're worthless even though they had that large number on.
23:45
Speaker 2: MM. So I guess you know, the question on everybody's
23:51
Speaker 2: mind is how high it can go, and your responses
23:55
Speaker 2: doesn't matter. You have to watch it and don't be greedy.
24:01
Speaker 2: Take your exit when it's time.
24:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just believe that you got to be a
24:08
Speaker 1: sound mind, and you've got to, you know, be satisfied
24:13
Speaker 1: with what you get. As the late great Jim Doane said,
24:16
Speaker 1: love what you get, it's all you're gonna get.
24:19
Speaker 2: Yeah. I couldn't agree with that more. In fact, I've
24:23
Speaker 2: more or less lived my life that way. You got
24:26
Speaker 2: to want what life wants for you because you have
24:30
Speaker 2: no control over what it's going to give you anyway,
24:32
Speaker 2: So you might as well be happy with what you
24:34
Speaker 2: have a little bit of philosophy, but it certainly happens
24:38
Speaker 2: with the markets. But it is a nice feeling when
24:42
Speaker 2: you see that your your stack is appreciating in value,
24:48
Speaker 2: and you know it's more than doubled over past year
24:53
Speaker 2: and a half. That is a good feeling. Oh absolutely.
24:57
Speaker 1: I mean you look at you know how poorly silver
25:00
Speaker 1: has done. If you go to gold, you know from
25:03
Speaker 1: the last twenty five years it has a Keeger compound
25:06
Speaker 1: annual growth rate of over ten percent. That's better than
25:10
Speaker 1: the stock market, which yes and P is about eight
25:13
Speaker 1: percent and the housing market's about six percent. Now, silver
25:16
Speaker 1: hasn't done as well as gold. It's somewhere near what
25:19
Speaker 1: the S and P has done, but still that is
25:23
Speaker 1: a compound. Now the problem is people say, well, wait
25:25
Speaker 1: a minute, day, what are you talking about. I'm talking
25:27
Speaker 1: about the compounded average growth it over that time period.
25:31
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean every year it does that. Some
25:34
Speaker 1: years it goes up thirty percent, some years it goes
25:36
Speaker 1: down thirty percent. But the idea of the metals especially
25:41
Speaker 1: is its preserved wealth.
25:43
Speaker 2: Wealth preservation.
25:45
Speaker 1: It's there forever and always and because of that, if
25:48
Speaker 1: you hedge or write them out for you five percent,
25:51
Speaker 1: ten percent, twenty percent, whatever it is that in the
25:55
Speaker 1: long run is going to do what I just outlined.
25:57
Speaker 1: And this is something that investors actually have the mindset
26:01
Speaker 1: to do it, whereas day traders, swing traders, traders really
26:07
Speaker 1: don't have that mentality. That's okay, it takes all currents
26:09
Speaker 1: to make a market. I've nothing against them at all.
26:12
Speaker 1: They just have a different view of the markets and
26:14
Speaker 1: how they approach them, and that's fine. But if you're
26:17
Speaker 1: looking at the market as a speculator and yet you're
26:22
Speaker 1: acting as an investor. You have cognitive dissonance. Oh my god,
26:25
Speaker 1: I bought the silver of thirty and now it's twenty five.
26:28
Speaker 2: What A'm gonna do? What am I gonna do? What
26:29
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do?
26:30
Speaker 1: Well, you're about to write them out. You're probably spit
26:32
Speaker 1: a sleep soundly, because you know, if we go into
26:35
Speaker 1: a currency crisis, you're going to do fine. And if
26:38
Speaker 1: we don't, you're gonna be okay, especially if it even stays.
26:41
Speaker 2: Below where you bought it.
26:42
Speaker 1: Four in terms of Federal Reserve notes, at least, one,
26:45
Speaker 1: you haven't lost everything. Two it has some value, and
26:48
Speaker 1: three you should be happy in a way because you're
26:51
Speaker 1: hedged in the worst case scenario. But people that go
26:54
Speaker 1: all in and go for the wrong thing at the
26:56
Speaker 1: wrong time, to buy the wrong product of the day,
27:00
Speaker 1: they ever heard the word silver?
27:02
Speaker 2: You know. I'll tell you a little anecdotal tale here.
27:06
Speaker 2: Back in twenty ten eleven, I was really business is great.
27:12
Speaker 2: I just sold out of my law firm. I was
27:14
Speaker 2: buying well the metal I could lay my hands on,
27:17
Speaker 2: and I got my friend into doing it, and he
27:20
Speaker 2: had a lot more money than me. He bought way more,
27:24
Speaker 2: you know, he was sitting on over seven figures worth
27:27
Speaker 2: and then his business went under. He got divorced, and
27:31
Speaker 2: he said, you know, I needed to cash in a
27:34
Speaker 2: lot of that. But if it wasn't for the fact
27:36
Speaker 2: that you got me into it, I would have never
27:38
Speaker 2: had that money. Because when you've got the medal, there's
27:42
Speaker 2: an intense predisposition not to part with it, and it's
27:47
Speaker 2: a kind of forced savings. So he was well ahead
27:51
Speaker 2: of where our entry point was. But more importantly, it
27:56
Speaker 2: was a type it's liquid, but it's still a pain
28:00
Speaker 2: to get rid of. It's not like sending money from
28:03
Speaker 2: one account to another or selling your crypto off and
28:06
Speaker 2: transferring the money to your account. And as a result
28:09
Speaker 2: of that friction to dispose of his medals hoard, he
28:15
Speaker 2: had it when he needed it, and he was very
28:18
Speaker 2: thankful to me. And I felt like, hey, what did
28:20
Speaker 2: I do here? I just gave you my opinion, you
28:24
Speaker 2: acted on it. I'm no financial advisor, but I'm putting
28:27
Speaker 2: my money where my mouth is. And it really worked
28:29
Speaker 2: out for him. So that is an added benefit to
28:33
Speaker 2: having the physical that most of you out there really
28:36
Speaker 2: don't get. All right, Well, it's great to talk to
28:40
Speaker 2: you again. Especially on this momentous day. And I do
28:43
Speaker 2: think it's momentous because we've got gold making new all
28:48
Speaker 2: time highs and we've got silver making almost fifteen year
28:54
Speaker 2: highs here. So this is a good day for US
28:58
Speaker 2: vindication validation as if you needed it anyway, which you
29:02
Speaker 2: certainly don't. Oh, one final thing, the metal stocks, precious
29:07
Speaker 2: metal stocks, they seem to be coming back to life. Now,
29:12
Speaker 2: what are your thoughts.
29:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, they're they're confirming the move. I mean, they've
29:16
Speaker 1: been doing well during the summer while golds really been flat.
29:20
Speaker 1: More and more interest in them. They are really the
29:23
Speaker 1: value plays. I mean the gold miners were trading as
29:26
Speaker 1: if gold was like twenty two hundred the ounce instead
29:29
Speaker 1: of or thirty five hundred the ounce. They're starting to
29:32
Speaker 1: move now. Newmont is the second best performing stock this
29:37
Speaker 1: year on the sm P five hundred. Think about that,
29:39
Speaker 1: five hundred stocks the videos edging it out slightly and
29:43
Speaker 1: new Month's the second best.
29:45
Speaker 2: Maybe at the end of the week, New.
29:46
Speaker 1: Mount Willacks would be the number one best performing stock
29:48
Speaker 1: on the S and P five hundred.
29:50
Speaker 2: Think about it.
29:51
Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, nobody's talking about that, So
29:54
Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting.
29:55
Speaker 2: Yes, I know exactly what you're saying. Couldn't agree with you.
29:59
Speaker 2: More holding of stocks and some really good ones, but
30:03
Speaker 2: we don't really talk about particular stock names here. If
30:06
Speaker 2: you are interested, you can always send me an email.
30:09
Speaker 2: I'll shoot off to David. You can get the Morgan
30:12
Speaker 2: Report where he covers a lot of companies and the
30:16
Speaker 2: David's Pleasure. I've got a question for David myself. Shoot
30:20
Speaker 2: me an email kl at Carrie Loot dot at carrielots
30:23
Speaker 2: dot com. It's the Morgan Report dot com links to
30:27
Speaker 2: the show notes if you go to the site Financial
30:29
Speaker 2: Survival Network dot com, which we're phasing into a substax
30:34
Speaker 2: site because it's just so much easier to manage, less costly,
30:39
Speaker 2: and it lends itself to writing articles and newsletters, and
30:43
Speaker 2: you'll find it there. But Financial Survival Network dot com
30:47
Speaker 2: is going to take you there anyway. David can't thank
30:50
Speaker 2: you enough. It's so great to reconnect with you. Hopefully
30:52
Speaker 2: I'll see you at a conference one of these days.
30:54
Speaker 2: So great, Grey, thank you very much.
30:56
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network your
31:00
Speaker 3: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
31:04
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31:10
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