Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #1: Welcome To The Learning Corner
Transcript
- 0:00Hold on one second.
- 0:01Hey, buddy.
- 0:01I'm recording a podcast right now.
- 0:03I'll come see you before you go to school though.
- 0:04Okay?
- 0:05I'm recording though.
- 0:05We're gonna have to edit this out.
- 0:06So
- 0:08It's the week of September 23rd.
- 0:11Welcome to the Learning Corner, a Precursor Ventures podcast.
- 0:18Welcome to the Learning Corner by Precursor, where we talk about the articles and Goodreads
- 0:25that caught our teens' attention over the past week.
- 0:28I'm Mia Farnham.
- 0:29I'm a principal here at Precursor Ventures and I'm joined by our VP and managing partner,
- 0:35Charles Hudson.
- 0:36Charles, how you doing?
- 0:37I'm great.
- 0:38I'm excited for Learning Corner.
- 0:40I'm excited too.
- 0:41It's wildly early.
- 0:42Charles's time.
- 0:43I've known you for 4 years, which is a 100 years in the venture time warp.
- 0:47So I've known that you have 47 hours in the day and everyone else has 24.
- 0:53We're excited.
- 0:54Some of our initial listeners will be friends of Precursor, but do you mind briefly sharing
- 0:58more about the firm and the idea behind it?
- 1:01So I started Precursor in 2015 with this idea that pre seed founders needed more capital
- 1:09options.
- 1:09And I consistently was meeting all these founders who I thought had great ideas and just
- 1:14didn't have great access to capital and didn't have really much in the way of product or
- 1:19prototype to show people.
- 1:20And as you know, Mia, most VCs can engage with someone if they know the person or if there's a
- 1:24product to evaluate.
- 1:25But if you don't have either of those things, I think it's hard for a lot of people.
- 1:28I said, what if we had a firm that just didn't require either of those things and we would as
- 1:32I joke with our LPs, we would engage with strangers with data, and we wouldn't be afraid
- 1:37to do so.
- 1:37And so we've been doing that for the last 10 years, and we've backed over 400 companies.
- 1:4110 years in.
- 1:42How are you feeling?
- 1:43Never been more excited.
- 1:45Awesome.
- 1:46Love to hear it.
- 1:47I know the idea for this podcast came about in a Starbucks in Midtown East, but the title
- 1:54Learning Corner already has some pretty deep roots across the fund and our team.
- 1:59So for the rest of the listeners, where does the name come from?
- 2:03So I've always been maybe a chronic article overshare in our team Discord, and I will drop
- 2:09things that I find interesting into our news and good reads channel.
- 2:14And one day, I think it was actually Marina, was like, you know what would be more
- 2:17interesting than randomly dropping articles into a Discord would be the ability to talk
- 2:22about them on a regular basis.
- 2:23And so we started doing learning corner every Tuesday morning, and it's just a chance for us
- 2:27to talk about a variety of things.
- 2:28Sometimes it's an interesting term sheet.
- 2:30Sometimes it's something that happened in the ecosystem that I think we should all chat
- 2:34about.
- 2:34Sometimes somebody found an interesting article, went to an interesting event.
- 2:38It's just a chance for us to share some of the interesting things that we're finding on the
- 2:42Internet and in real life that impact the world of venture and, and technology.
- 2:47That's become one of my favorite meetings we have as a group every week.
- 2:50The purpose of the podcast is to offer that to anyone in the venture landscape.
- 2:55To just have a couple looks into some articles and Goodreads that our team found and some
- 2:59insights if they find it helpful.
- 3:01But without further ado, I think we should get it started.
- 3:03We can kick it off with the topics and go from there.
- 3:06So topic number 1, 24 venture capitalists tell you what one thing did they wish people better
- 3:13understood about BC, a series by Hunter Wach with the co founder of both Homebrew and Screen
- 3:20Door.
- 3:21We've been following this series by Hunter Wach for a bit on our team.
- 3:24So essentially he prompts 24 different VCs.
- 3:27We're typically GPs on what they wish people better understood about the job and people in
- 3:34quotation marks can include anyone from politicians to founders, to LPs, essentially
- 3:40anyone outside of the traditional VC group.
- 3:43And the most recent piece he put out had some really wonderful quotes.
- 3:48And there were 2 that I specifically wanted to bring here to discuss in a little bit more
- 3:52detail.
- 3:53The first was from Andre at maplebc who discussed how wonderful it is that BC reward
- 4:00difference in its foundational form quote, this difference come from the outlier returns driven
- 4:08by backing founders who are different.
- 4:10And then he goes on to call onto the fact that LPs are really not incentivized to take that
- 4:15risk, unfortunately.
- 4:16And Andre hopes that LPs were a bit more open to backing GPs who were in fact different.
- 4:22So similar to Hunter, I know you've been very involved in Screen Door, which is a fund of
- 4:27funds run by VCs focused on investing in new VCs.
- 4:31How does Andre's conundrum have downstream effects into the broader venture landscape?
- 4:38Yeah.
- 4:38I mean, working on screen door in my 25th hour every day is honestly, it's a lot of fun.
- 4:43And, you know, when a handful of the the GP advisors and the LPs that that back screen door
- 4:48got together, I think there was this belief that GPs had some ability to identify people
- 4:54who were maybe doing things that were different.
- 4:56And when I think about what can make a VC fund different, it can be the GP's background.
- 5:01So, obviously, you know, people spinning out of really established venture platforms are pretty
- 5:05well understood.
- 5:06But if you're an independent angel, just an operator, if you're coming from some really
- 5:10different background, I think that that can make you stand out.
- 5:13Sometimes you're different because you're going after a market that's not really well
- 5:16understood.
- 5:17I know a bunch of people who were doing AI centric funds 5 years ago, and there were a lot
- 5:21of questions like, can you build a whole fund just on an AI thesis?
- 5:25I think the answer to that is probably, yeah.
- 5:27Sometimes it's a geography that you're focused on.
- 5:29It's a region that people aren't as familiar with.
- 5:33I'd say the other one.
- 5:34And the thing I think actually is the hardest for LPs, which is there's something structural
- 5:38about your fund that's different.
- 5:40It could be like in the case of precursor, like our portfolio construction of 80 to a 100
- 5:45companies per fund is challenging for a lot of LPs.
- 5:45They're not used to seeing successful funds with challenging for a lot of LPs.
- 5:47They're not used to seeing successful funds with portfolio constructions like that.
- 5:52And so I've over time become more sympathetic to the plight of LPs.
- 5:57As you know, Mia, it takes 7 to 10 years to know if a strategy is gonna work.
- 6:02And I think it takes a lot of courage to back somebody who doesn't fit the model.
- 6:06And, you know, for the listeners, I think if someone were to come to me and say, what's your
- 6:10advice for me?
- 6:10I would say you should run a concentrated strategy where you buy a lot of ownership
- 6:15because most LPs that you will pitch have very finely tuned decision criteria for evaluating
- 6:22funds that fit that criteria.
- 6:25Ideally, you have a multi GP partnership of people who trust and like each other and have
- 6:30worked together.
- 6:31And when you deviate from that platonic ideal, everything about fundraising becomes much more
- 6:37difficult.
- 6:38So you should only do that if you really have deep conviction that the differences from that
- 6:43model are essential to what you wanna do.
- 6:45And I've known Andre since he worked at Uber in Toronto.
- 6:49Wow.
- 6:49Andre is always somebody who I thought has had amazing access to early stage teams and has had
- 6:55this really unique ability to build relationships with founders at the earliest
- 6:59stage.
- 7:00And I've always felt like that's the thing you should be looking for as an LP because,
- 7:04ultimately, the business isn't so much about you as a GP choosing which founders to back.
- 7:09It's about convincing the very best people to take your money instead of someone else's.
- 7:13The Screen Door Investment Committee is an interesting collection.
- 7:15We've got 3 super talented people on the staff.
- 7:19We've got, you know, Jamie, Lisa, and Lane.
- 7:21So everybody on the IC tends to approach these conversations with a different perspective
- 7:26based on what they do for a living.
- 7:28And I I almost always ask GPs, like, given your strategy, why are the very best people that are
- 7:33in spec for you gonna choose you over anybody else?
- 7:37I find the answer to that question tends to be super revealing.
- 7:40I almost feel like you have to walk this fine line of staying true to your thesis and
- 7:44building conviction into an investment area that you feel strongly of while also being
- 7:48realistic of how LPs pick GPs to invest in.
- 7:53So at what point do you have to change direction, or do you ever have to?
- 7:58It's so funny.
- 7:59I mean, I I'll never forget this.
- 8:00When I was raising our first fund, I went and asked for some advice from one of the most
- 8:05respected I won't name this person because I didn't ask for their permission.
- 8:09I asked one of the people who I respected the most, who's one of the OG Seed investors who's
- 8:13been very successful.
- 8:14I went and showed him my deck, and I had all of the, like, really innovative, aggressive, new
- 8:20ideas for Precursor at the front of the deck.
- 8:22And I pitched him, and he sat there very politely, and he goes, you've got this all
- 8:26backwards.
- 8:27What do you mean?
- 8:28He goes, this is gonna scare people because all of these things that you think are new and
- 8:33innovative are risky, and some of the people you're pitching really want vanilla ice cream
- 8:38with sprinkles.
- 8:39So I would suggest you focus on the parts of your fund that are easy to understand and
- 8:44normal and treat these innovations like sprinkles.
- 8:47These are things you're gonna do to differentiate yourself or make your fund
- 8:50better.
- 8:50And he's like, I just worry that if you go out with this pitch, it's gonna overwhelm people
- 8:53because it's too different.
- 8:55I didn't know what he meant at the time, and now I totally get it.
- 8:58And he was absolutely right.
- 8:59And I made those changes and it made a pretty significant difference in our fundraise.
- 9:03Ken, part of what I like about Screen Door is I think we've taken some smart bets on founders
- 9:08who I think are going to turn out to be excellent GPs, but don't exactly fit.
- 9:13Either the fund size is too small or their solo GP or they're investing in a theme or thesis
- 9:18that, like, isn't well understood or the person doesn't have a tremendously long track record,
- 9:22but we think through getting to know them and the portfolio that, like, they're a star in the
- 9:25making.
- 9:26So I I've really enjoyed it.
- 9:27And truthfully, like, as much as advice is useful when you're starting a fund, the thing
- 9:31that's way more valuable is money.
- 9:33And that's one thing that we can bring to the table screen door that, like, you can't bring
- 9:36on your own.
- 9:36Awesome.
- 9:37Thanks Andre for that.
- 9:38That was a great ad.
- 9:39The second quote in the piece was by Ryan Hoover from the weekend fund who talked about
- 9:47the quote unquote traps of escalating fund sizes and calling out the reality that
- 9:52deploying a $10,000,000 fund is wildly different from operating a $100,000,000 fund.
- 9:58Charles, I feel like I've had multiple conversations with you about this, but as
- 10:02someone who has essentially lived through this, curious to get your perspective here and, you
- 10:08know, what's the decision process you went through each subsequent fund that was raised
- 10:12and what are the conversations you actually have to have with LPs along the way?
- 10:16I think it's really interesting.
- 10:19And this, like, tax back to screen door too.
- 10:20I always ask people, like, what do you think fund 3 looks like?
- 10:23Cause we're usually meeting people for fund 1.
- 10:24And it's kind of an unfair question because nobody knows what the future looks like.
- 10:28I think if you'd ask most managers in 2020, what does your 3rd fund looks like?
- 10:32It'd be 20 times the size of the fund they would take that day.
- 10:35And if you ask most people today, they'd be like, flat would be good.
- 10:38Flat would be
- 10:38fine.
- 10:39Right.
- 10:39And so and so when I started Free Courser, our first fund was 15.
- 10:45And I told people our strategy doesn't really work above $50,000,000 So you should think of
- 10:50us as a fund that will always be sub 50.
- 10:52There are a couple reasons for that.
- 10:541, I was single GP and didn't really know how big the team would get.
- 10:572nd, most of our companies didn't need that much money from us to get from the place where
- 11:02we met them to the place where they tended to engage with us less.
- 11:05So I was like, you know, $50,000,000 is enough to give people one pre seed check and one seed
- 11:09check, and the good companies will graduate.
- 11:12And, like, the other ones, like, they won't.
- 11:14And so, like, I I've always approached every fund saying, like, well, what do we need?
- 11:18So I always go back and say, like, well, what are we trying to do here?
- 11:20We're trying to get people from 0 to 1.
- 11:24Like, no product to a product with some data, ideally with seed round, and then from the seed
- 11:29round to a series a, and then I find most people don't need us that much, or they don't
- 11:33need us in the same way.
- 11:34The other thing when I started, I was like, I have no idea if people are gonna let us invest
- 11:37in their a's and b's.
- 11:39Like, I don't know.
- 11:40Like, we're a brand new fund for all I know.
- 11:41They're gonna look at the pro rata side letter, and if we don't have one, they're not gonna
- 11:44give us an allocation.
- 11:45That did
- 11:46that didn't turn to be true.
- 11:47So over time, a couple things changed, and I think this is true of a lot of managers.
- 11:51I think the good reasons to change your fund size and get larger are there something about
- 11:55your model you've realized requires more capital.
- 11:59You believe you have the ability to deploy more money against the same strategy without
- 12:04changing your ability to access the most important deals.
- 12:07And for us, what I realized is like, well, very few of our companies were going c to series a
- 12:11and one check.
- 12:12Most of them needed 2 checks.
- 12:14And I was like, well, if we're gonna be a good partner to these companies, we need a bigger
- 12:16fund because I wanna be able to write both of those seed checks when it's right.
- 12:20The other thing was people were offering us allocations in the a's and b's, which I hadn't
- 12:24put into the model.
- 12:25And like, I wanna do these selectively, not in every case.
- 12:28And that requires more money.
- 12:30I do think though the problem with AUM is that some people's ego is very tied to the amount of
- 12:35money they have under management.
- 12:37Yep.
- 12:37And, early in my venture career, someone who I really respect once told me nobody willingly
- 12:42raises a smaller fund.
- 12:43And, like, that has stuck with me for a long time.
- 12:45Like, but what if it's the right thing?
- 12:46Like, what if you overshot?
- 12:48What if you realize, hey, we don't need and he's like, nobody does it because everybody
- 12:51assumes if you raise a smaller fund.
- 12:53It was because you had to, not because you chose to.
- 12:55And so I've always I always ask myself, honestly, on a weekly basis, like, what's the
- 13:01maximum dollars we could deploy given the model and constraints we have?
- 13:05And we've talked about this internally.
- 13:06I think for us, it's, like, between a $100120,000,000.
- 13:09Yeah.
- 13:09You get beyond that and, like, a bunch of the core assumptions in our fund break.
- 13:13But I think it's really tempting to grow your fund size.
- 13:16And I think the biggest mistake I see people make besides simply pursuing bigger fund size
- 13:20because it is more fees and more fees make day to day life more enjoyable.
- 13:24Right.
- 13:25The other mistake I see people make is, well, I wrote a 25 k check-in Fund 1.
- 13:30I'm sure I can size my check up to 2.50.
- 13:32And then, like, you can size it up.
- 13:34You just might not get into the same companies.
- 13:36You might go from being the person who was super value add at 25 and produced a 100 ks of
- 13:42value to a person who puts in 250 ks and still produces a 100 ks of value.
- 13:48And the, and the founder's perception of their relationship with you and your value add will
- 13:52change pretty dramatically.
- 13:53So I always caution people on like doubling is a big deal.
- 13:57Yep.
- 13:57Like doubling your fund size is a big deal.
- 13:59It changes a lot.
- 14:00And so it's very hard to convince managers not to raise the maximum amount of money on offer.
- 14:05I found it's very hard.
- 14:06It feels like sometimes fund managers forget that while they're raising their subsequent
- 14:11funds from fund 1 to fund 4, there have been other people who've entered the space from a
- 14:16fund manager perspective and other multistage funds have continued to raise and build
- 14:20incubators underneath their platform.
- 14:23And so all of that affects you, even though you probably don't wanna do or tell LPs that it
- 14:28won't, I assume feeds into the fundraise.
- 14:31I always ask people like, how elastic is your strategy?
- 14:34I would say series a strategies are actually fairly elastic.
- 14:39If you can get into an a and you can maintain, like, if you can get into a good a and you do a
- 14:43good job on pro rata rights, you should be able to like deploy a lot of money in the b and c if
- 14:47you want to.
- 14:47I just don't think pre seed and seed strategies are that elastic.
- 14:51I just think if you stretch them too hard, you snap the rubber band.
- 14:53So I I always try to get people to think about, like, how much could you really stretch the
- 14:57strategy and still do what you say you're gonna do?
- 14:59Love it.
- 15:00Well, we're gonna move on, but thank you, Hunter, for continuing to share these awesome
- 15:04insights.
- 15:05We encourage everyone to follow that series.
- 15:07We'll include the link in this episode, of course.
- 15:10Topic number 2, an article by The Economist titled Open AI's new fundraising is shaking up
- 15:18Silicon Valley.
- 15:19This article surrounds the rippling of facts across venture from the news that OpenAI, the
- 15:24maker of ChatGPT, is on the brinks of reaching a roughly $150,000,000,000 valuation as it
- 15:31works towards raising $6,500,000,000 from investors.
- 15:35And that valuation is second to only SpaceX in the US.
- 15:39And so the article highlights 3 specific challenges that this emergence of generative AI
- 15:44funding poses across the traditional venture landscape.
- 15:48The first is the amount of funding and therefore check size required to support these
- 15:53LLM companies is huge.
- 15:55And as a result, it makes it pretty clear who has the ability to be a check writer here.
- 16:01Charles, what are the things that you probably need to believe to be true in order to write a
- 16:07check into this space as a fund manager?
- 16:11I mean, I it's funny.
- 16:12A good friend of mine who's a very successful early stage deep tech VC sent me this article
- 16:19on a text, and it was like, hey.
- 16:21It's like they read your blog post.
- 16:23I wrote a post a while ago.
- 16:24I think it's very hard right now to be I don't even say contrarian.
- 16:28I don't think we're contrarian on AI.
- 16:30I'd say to be cautious and conservative on AI.
- 16:33I think it's a very hard place to sit as an investor.
- 16:36It's very hard to also conversation to have with LPs because they're like, look, all of the
- 16:40biggest multi stage funds that they're in are all in on this theme.
- 16:43And my view has been there's a lot of awesome AI companies that I think are super promising
- 16:47that don't make sense for a sub $100,000,000 pre seed fund
- 16:50Sure.
- 16:50Because the entry points are, like, 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars, if not 1,000,000,000 of
- 16:55dollars from a starting position.
- 16:57So you have to believe that these companies can become worth 50 to a $100,000,000,000 in the
- 17:03future for those, let alone, can you get access to these deals, to believe that they're good
- 17:09investments, and I I'm just not there.
- 17:11Yeah.
- 17:11And so some combination of reservations about what the technology can do today versus in the
- 17:17future, plus entry place, plus our fund size.
- 17:19I'm like, these just don't make sense for us.
- 17:22Yeah.
- 17:22And I think they really only make sense for multibillion dollar.
- 17:26If you think about it, I mean, I think for those of you who've listened to, Nick Charles'
- 17:31podcast about the launch of Asylum Ventures, I think I maybe don't have quite as extreme of
- 17:35you as he does, but I will say this, the only people who I think can play that game are
- 17:40people who can say, we could go multiple 1,000,000,000 of dollars of capital invested
- 17:45into this company and it doesn't break our fund.
- 17:49Sure.
- 17:49Maybe it maybe we end up 20% concentrated or maybe we end up 10% concentrated and we have a
- 17:54big chunk outside the fund.
- 17:56But, you know, being several $1,000,000,000 of committed capital, not like net asset value,
- 18:01but like actual dollars in is fine.
- 18:04That is not, in my opinion, a game that most seed investors can afford to play.
- 18:07And my question is, like, what happens if you're the 3rd, the number 3 or number 4,
- 18:13number 5, LLM Yeah.
- 18:14And the price to develop the next model is an excess of what you can raise.
- 18:18What's the residual value of an LLM company that can't continue to innovate?
- 18:23Is it 0?
- 18:24Sure.
- 18:24Is it greater than 0?
- 18:25Is it one of these weird aqua hire license deals where you take the talent?
- 18:30It's sort of like being at a poker table, and everyone's like, we're just gonna, like,
- 18:33continue to, like
- 18:34Pile it.
- 18:35Raise pile it and and, you know, the pot's gonna get a lot bigger, but at some point, if
- 18:39you fold, you're you might walk away with nothing.
- 18:41Sure.
- 18:41So Beyond the sovereign wealth funds and these massive $1,000,000,000 funds, I think most
- 18:46people forget that most of the funding for these massive LLM companies actually was raised
- 18:51by large tech companies.
- 18:52So Microsoft and Amazon have collectively invested $17,000,000,000 into either OpenAI or
- 18:59Anthropic.
- 19:00That pales in comparison to the check side is that most precede and seed funds raise.
- 19:04In fact, another good point is PitchBook said that last year, the average fund that was
- 19:09raised in America was around $150,000,000 That's it.
- 19:13The Economist pointed out that OpenAI is seeking to raise more than 40 x that from
- 19:18investors.
- 19:18So, like, how does the math math?
- 19:20And I think it's really interesting because I remember when Microsoft announced that original
- 19:23OpenAI deal, people were like, that's crazy.
- 19:26Doesn't seem crazy, but the benefit of hindsight.
- 19:28And if you're in the business of selling compute, there's probably no better customer
- 19:33for you than these big LOMs.
- 19:35So I think if you're those companies, you're like, look, we're investing, like, all
- 19:38strategics for a variety of reasons.
- 19:40Making money is one of them.
- 19:42Getting these companies to take a serious look at our infrastructure and use it is another
- 19:46one.
- 19:47And 3rd, being close to these companies and ideally getting some insights into, like, what
- 19:50they're learning is probably the third one.
- 19:52So I think for those companies, it maybe does make sense to to do this because like, if
- 19:56you're Microsoft, you're like, hey, if if this investment is part of a bigger BD deal I need
- 20:02there's a lot of ways for us to win above and beyond the upside of being in the stock.
- 20:06Next one that the article highlighted as another challenge is around the concept that
- 20:12investing in these new companies is very different than investing in internet startups,
- 20:16where you throw cash at a company to see it grow as quickly as possible.
- 20:20With these types of companies, the new game is to invest immeasurable amounts of money into
- 20:26the company upfront, to invest in computing power and data to make the models as smart as
- 20:31possible.
- 20:32It's not a revolutionary thought, but it feels like every VC recently wants to have a stake in
- 20:38LLMs and generative AI.
- 20:40And I would go out on a limb to say perhaps LPs are also asking this of their fund managers as
- 20:47well.
- 20:48Wanted to know your thought.
- 20:49I I mentioned to an LP.
- 20:50I'm like, the amount of dollar exposure you have to AI as an LP in big funds, it doesn't
- 20:55matter what you think about AI.
- 20:58Like, someone told me, he goes, it doesn't matter.
- 21:00The managers that we've chosen to back have already voted for us.
- 21:03You give them the capital.
- 21:04You trust their judgment.
- 21:05They made the decision that it was wise to put a significant amount of that capital to work in
- 21:10AI.
- 21:10So you are now very long AI, and I hope that that decision is consistent with your beliefs
- 21:16about where the opportunities lie.
- 21:19And I do think there was like a bit of an LLM craze.
- 21:23And I think people said like, I've got to have one of these in my portfolio.
- 21:27And I, I kinda get it in some ways, like the business of venture is somewhat bubble driven.
- 21:33Like we get these like innovations and waves and the questions like, can you find the
- 21:37companies that matter?
- 21:39And it all it always seems to turn out there are far fewer companies that really matter.
- 21:43Mhmm.
- 21:44In the end, I got a chance to spend some time with some of the management at OpenAI.
- 21:48It's the first company I've seen that reminds me of Google, not in terms of ambition, but in
- 21:53terms of, like, all of the problems that, like I remember when I met Google in the early days,
- 21:58they were trying to solve this algorithm problem around search, but also this compute
- 22:01problem around how do we solve all these search queries and this data center problem because,
- 22:05like, they needed they were growing faster than anyone.
- 22:08They were solving all of these problems mostly because they were encountering them in a way
- 22:12that others weren't and at a velocity that others weren't.
- 22:16And that's, that's a lot of the, like a lot of the internal tooling that's come out of Google
- 22:20too.
- 22:20Like that was in response to really hard compute.
- 22:23And OpenAI is the 1st company I've seen in a long time.
- 22:25Or when I talk to the people there, I'm like, Oh, you guys are doing the same thing.
- 22:29You're trying to iterate on this reasoning model or whatever the next generation is of the
- 22:33core model.
- 22:34You're trying to solve a compute and data center problem.
- 22:36You're trying to solve a semiconductor Silicon pro.
- 22:38You're trying to solve a lot of problems because you're experiencing this new market,
- 22:42which is demanding things that tech doesn't provide.
- 22:45And I think the history has shown those companies end up being special.
- 22:49So as much as I think these AI LLM companies don't make sense for most venture funds, I do
- 22:55think if you're like, I have a multibillion dollar fund, what's the one bet I could make
- 23:00with asymmetric upside where I could generate a real return on 1,000,000,000 of dollars of
- 23:05capital invested?
- 23:06Yeah.
- 23:06This is like a rational thing to do if your starting position is, I have a 5 to
- 23:10$10,000,000,000 venture fund that I'm trying to turn into a 2 to 3 x net fund.
- 23:16It's kind of the one place you could I could see how it happens there.
- 23:19If you've invested in OpenEye at 8 or $10,000,000,000 on paper, you're up
- 23:24Sure.
- 23:2415 x?
- 23:25Yeah.
- 23:26Which is psychotic.
- 23:27Like, that's not supposed to happen.
- 23:29It ties into the last challenge, which is that the venture ecosystem is now tasked with
- 23:35working out how startups that rely on these LLMs can be profitable.
- 23:41So to our earlier conversations, since some VCs are being priced out of the LLM funding market,
- 23:46some are actually funding startups that can build on top of them.
- 23:49So you have your coding tools, cluster support, your digital healthcare, or what have you.
- 23:54But to what end does that make sense?
- 23:58The other thing that I didn't appreciate that I like, I still haven't worked out what it means.
- 24:02There are 2 things I see happening that to me, like, make it very difficult to figure out,
- 24:07like, when to start a company in this space.
- 24:10And 1 is the cost of compute is coming way, way down.
- 24:13I believe both OpenAI and Anthropic believe that, like, if compute is cheaper, people will
- 24:18compute more stuff and you will be able to, like, answer harder questions.
- 24:22And second, with each successive generation of these models, things that were hard or
- 24:27impossible become possible.
- 24:29So for me, if you and I started an AI company today, we would have to solve a bunch of
- 24:34problems that exist today, and we would have to undertake a use case that makes sense with the
- 24:39cost of AI today.
- 24:41Yeah.
- 24:426 months from now, there could be something we spent 6 months building and fixing that the
- 24:46system just does for you.
- 24:48So So you gotta throw that you gotta throw that, like, hack the stuff away.
- 24:51And, oh, by the way, the cost of commute of compute is now a quarter of what it was when we
- 24:56started.
- 24:56Yeah.
- 24:56So whatever architecture we built, assuming that compute cost is maybe less relevant, And a
- 25:02brand new company could start now and be cool.
- 25:04I get to skip solving all the stuff that Charles and Mia solved because, like, it's like
- 25:08you look at, like, what, like, the reasoning that you can get
- 25:11on a
- 25:11new model.
- 25:12Yeah.
- 25:12People were, like, trying to figure out how to do that, and now you're like, oh, like, the
- 25:15model does it.
- 25:16So all the time we spent
- 25:17And the money.
- 25:18Scratching our head and all the money.
- 25:20And so, a friend of mine, David Crenshaw, sent me a good article about this.
- 25:24He sent it to me on Twitter.
- 25:25And it's just sort of like, in the end, all of the specialty hacking doesn't matter.
- 25:29It's just like you throw more compute at it and the models get and the models do more of the
- 25:33work over time.
- 25:34That's a bad summarization of the article, which to me means it seems maddening to me to
- 25:38start a company because you know that in the future, everything is gonna be easier, which
- 25:42has always been true of software.
- 25:44But in this case, we're like 2 quarters from now.
- 25:47I remember I met a bunch of people who were trying to voice enable open AI a year and a
- 25:52half ago.
- 25:52I'm like, isn't open AI going to do this?
- 25:53No, they'll never do it.
- 25:55Here's what?
- 25:55And I was like, I kind of think they're gonna do this and they did it.
- 25:58So now I feel like primary value prop was like voice input, like it's offered at the platform
- 26:03level.
- 26:04You're welcome.
- 26:05And that's probably better for people that like the platform does it.
- 26:09So I don't know.
- 26:09I continue to think these applications are interesting, but I do think like riding the
- 26:14wave of these successive model improvements and the things that these companies are gonna throw
- 26:19out of left field just makes it really hard.
- 26:22Makes it really hard.
- 26:23Well, great.
- 26:24We gotta move on to the last one.
- 26:26The third topic, it was LeadEdge Capital's letter that segmented the type of reporting
- 26:32information companies.
- 26:34And this was circling on LinkedIn following a post by Better Tomorrow Ventures and Lead Edge
- 26:38Capital is a New York City based growth equity firm focused on internet, software and services
- 26:43and tech enabled services investments.
- 26:45The letter placed pretty concise messaging on company letterhead outlining the reality that
- 26:51there is in fact, a hierarchy of information included in decks about traction metrics from
- 26:57an investor's POV.
- 26:58At the top, we have, if companies have good cash profits, they will report those.
- 27:04And at the very bottom, we have, quote, if companies don't have good page views, they
- 27:10report on that they were voted the best place to work in X, Y, and Z city.
- 27:15Charles, I saw your comment.
- 27:16Nobody hides good news.
- 27:18Tell me more here.
- 27:19Early in my venture career, someone I worked with told me nobody hides good news.
- 27:23This was someone who'd been in the, finance department at Disney.
- 27:27Know anything about Disney Corp strategy and finance.
- 27:30It's a pretty inte it was a pretty intense group back in the nineties.
- 27:32And he was just like, nobody has good news.
- 27:34He's like, if you're making a bunch of money or profitable, like, that's the lead.
- 27:37And you can kinda tell where somebody is by what they decide to lead with.
- 27:40And I love one of the things I love about, like, growth equity people is they're kinda no
- 27:44BS and they're really direct.
- 27:46And I have found what they said to be true.
- 27:48Whenever someone tells me about downloads, my immediate question is like, well, let's talk
- 27:51about acting.
- 27:51Like, I I realized without even ordering them as hierarchy, whenever somebody tells me as a
- 27:56metric, I always wanna go, well, what's one what's the one level metric that would be
- 28:00better if we knew it?
- 28:02So if someone's like, these are these are revenue.
- 28:04I'm like, okay.
- 28:04What's profits?
- 28:05What are gross margins?
- 28:06Like, what are all these other things that I wanna know?
- 28:08And I think it's like it's one of these things where it's like an obvious tell, it's also
- 28:11like, I don't know what else you're supposed to do as a start up.
- 28:13If you're like a brand new company and you're like, all we have is downloads, that's all you
- 28:16can talk about.
- 28:17Right.
- 28:17All we have is the best place to work in x, y, and y, city.
- 28:20For pre seed and seed companies, what would be the hierarchy of information or maybe even more
- 28:25in simpler terms, the what's the one thing that you care about?
- 28:27Because to no fault of these super early founders, some of the more palpable news could
- 28:32quite literally be more intangible things like awards and media announcements.
- 28:36It's funny.
- 28:36A lot of what I work with our portfolio companies on is, like, figuring out, well, what
- 28:39KPIs do we care about in this business?
- 28:42Yeah.
- 28:42And how can we, at an early stage, start thinking about tracking and measuring them?
- 28:47The results might not be great, but I find if you pick the right things to measure and track,
- 28:52you will get clues as to whether you're on the right track.
- 28:56And then you can make trade offs.
- 28:57Like, I was talking to somebody this weekend who's like, well, you know, our monetization
- 29:01and retention is really strong, but our growth is slow.
- 29:04I'm like, well, we have to fix growth.
- 29:06And, like, I'm actually okay trading some of the success.
- 29:09Like, we're probably over delivering in these other areas at the expense of growth.
- 29:13And so I think most startups, it's this, like, multi you have to be good at multiple things at
- 29:18once.
- 29:19Like, you could be profitable and, like, have super awesome retention and not growing and no
- 29:23one's gonna care.
- 29:24So it's like, how do we balance growth, profitability, good unit economics, all these
- 29:29things that I think it's maddening for founders because sometimes the equation for what people
- 29:33want changes in 2021.
- 29:35It was like, if it costs you $10 to generate an incremental dollar of revenue, spend the $10
- 29:39like people wanted growth.
- 29:41Right.
- 29:41And then it switched and people were like, this is life.
- 29:43This is venture.
- 29:44People change the balance between those things.
- 29:47And I think as a founder, you have to adapt to that, whether it's fair to ask you to do so or
- 29:52not.
- 29:52That is the job.
- 29:53And I will also say, I think there are a lot of investors who also don't know why they're
- 29:57asking specific questions.
- 29:58I also think sometimes we have portfolio company founders who are like, this person
- 30:02asked me for a 5 year financials for a pre seed company.
- 30:05Like that tells you more about them than it's about you.
- 30:07Tells you like how they like to engage.
- 30:09This, this person might not be the right investor for you.
- 30:12Right.
- 30:13I'm going to deem this as a success for the first episode.
- 30:17Thank you, Charles, for taking time in the morning.
- 30:19And also thank you to everyone who popped over to the learning corner.
- 30:23We'll be running this weekly, so we hope you come back in.
- 30:26And in the meantime, please share, subscribe, and tune in next week for another episode.
- 30:33Thanks.
- 30:34Thanks.