Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part One | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets

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Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part One | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello people, welcome to Targeting Winners.
0:06
This is our Part 1 of the Big 12 preview heading into the 2026
0:11
season. America's dumpster fire.
0:13
I'm here. Warren and Pete.
0:14
April, fellas. Not too bad, man, Not too bad.
0:19
It's my last last full day in mission in Mexico and I fly back
0:23
to the States tomorrow. So that's not great, but that's
0:25
out of that everything's. Good, it's all right.
0:27
Get your last shots of tequila in before you head out.
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It doesn't stuff anyway, it's it's actually like 79° here
0:34
today, so you'll probably be looking at something similar
0:38
when you get back. Well.
0:40
Traverse City is flooding tremendously at the moment,
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which is going to be a problem. And one of the breweries burned
0:44
down, so that's bad too. Oh.
0:46
That's terrible. Wouldn't even go back.
0:48
Yep, it's an outrage. Well, other good news, we're
0:53
looking ahead for the Big 12 for this year, but let's look ahead
0:55
this Saturday, Darren, how about those Philadelphia Flyers?
0:58
They made the playoffs. I'm not downstairs with my
1:01
autograph Lindros jersey behind me.
1:03
But yeah, we never thought we'd seen them in the playoffs again
1:08
in our lifetime. But yeah, and they get the
1:11
Penguins. So obviously if you're a Flyer's
1:14
Boo, you don't like the Penguins.
1:16
In the Boo F the Penguins. They're underdogs, but yay Dan
1:20
Bladar, your career in Philly. He is a wall.
1:24
Here we go, apparently. We'll see.
1:27
They'll probably get swept, but you know, hey, at least they're
1:29
there. So good for that.
1:30
That's right. Hey, yeah, so, well, let's jump
1:33
into it. We got the Big 12 last year.
1:35
This was my favorite conference to bet on.
1:37
I think I had about 40 bets going into the season.
1:41
We creatively call this America's dumpster fire.
1:45
Darren, what are your initial thoughts on the conference in
1:47
general? We're going to do the first six.
1:49
I, I, you know what, this conference is a lot of fun
1:53
because we had talked about at our bankroll management show.
1:56
You know, if you're new to college football and you're
1:58
looking for a place to start and you don't live near an FBS
2:03
football campus, this is a great conference to start in because
2:07
nobody knows what the Hell's going on in this conference from
2:10
here to here anyway. So you're not really any farther
2:12
behind than anybody else. So the good thing about it is it
2:17
always seems like you can count on some kind of surprise.
2:20
I mean, if you've listened to us since the beginning, you know
2:24
what 2023 Oklahoma State did to me mentally and emotionally?
2:28
But they weren't expected to do anything.
2:30
They made the conference final. 2024 Arizona State pick the
2:33
finish dead last, not only won this conference, got to the
2:37
playoff, took Texas to double overtime before losing.
2:40
And then even last year after BYU lost.
2:43
Retz laughs. Yeah, they weren't projected to
2:45
finish any higher than like eighth.
2:47
They got to the conference final game.
2:49
And not even like it doesn't even mean conference final game.
2:52
Like Arizona was projected to win like 4 1/2 games and they
2:55
had a nine win season. So there's just something about
2:59
this conference, I don't know what it is.
3:01
I don't know if everybody's really good, everybody's really
3:04
bad. But one thing you can count on,
3:05
if you're a future's better, there is a chance that you can
3:09
make some money here because we we've got one huge favorite,
3:12
which we're not covering today. But somebody at 7:00 to 1:00 or
3:16
better is going to be playing in this game regardless.
3:19
And if you're lucky, 2 teams with ridiculous odds be playing
3:22
finals. So I love it from a betting
3:24
standpoint. Still, 2023 Oklahoma State
3:29
probably drank 12 bottles of Pepto throughout the season.
3:32
So yeah, I, I have no conference bets here because I can't do
3:37
that again. But I love it for a future
3:40
standpoint. Pete, what about you?
3:43
Yeah, I think, I think you said a lot there.
3:45
I mean, it's an interesting conference in that from the
3:49
betting perspective, there are so many interesting storylines
3:52
in this conference. You look at some of these teams,
3:55
you look at the players they brought in, you just look at the
3:57
volatility in this conference and how each year it's a
4:00
different team stepping up of late.
4:02
From that perspective, I mean, it's a wide open field unless
4:05
you're heavily on the favorite. Outside of that, it is a pretty
4:09
wide open field. So it is very interesting
4:12
looking at some of these teams like Arizona State, Baylor, BYUI
4:16
mean we're talking about a few of them today.
4:18
And I think we'll have some pretty interesting discussions
4:19
on those teams because, yeah, it's it's a difficult conference
4:25
to assess because there's so many teams that could be in
4:28
play, which is fun, right. But that's what makes us fun, is
4:32
a better, especially with futures that makes futures
4:34
really fun. So all right.
4:38
And well, as you can tell, if you're watching on YouTube,
4:40
thank you, Please be sure to like and subscribe.
4:43
But we are so close to 100 subscribers, guys.
4:46
We've we've run a lot in the past couple of months.
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So please do us a favor and like on that and be one of the
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subscribers. Get us over to hump here.
4:54
Get us in the triple digits. This is only Part 1 because in
4:56
true college football fashion, the Big 12 has about 30 teams.
5:00
So we're going to do a half the conference now, half later.
5:03
Let's dive right in. Darren, let's start with you.
5:06
We're going to look at Arizona Wildcats plus 2250 to win the
5:09
conference and the Over Under is at 7 1/2 wins.
5:14
Yeah, this was, I was talking a little bit before we started
5:16
recording. I, I, I had a lean or at least a
5:20
pretty solid thought on seven of these eight teams.
5:23
And unfortunately, we're starting with the one team I
5:26
couldn't figure out to save my life.
5:28
So the one thing I love know if a feed it back for a fourth
5:32
year, like you're don't see that at all.
5:36
Who knows if you ever will. So that gives them a huge edge
5:40
in this conference, at least at that position.
5:44
You know, I took a look at this sketch.
5:46
Well, first of all, the defense, their defense really did get a
5:49
lot better as the year went on. Those first four conference
5:53
games, they were giving up like almost 30 points a game.
5:56
The last five they were down to 17 points a game.
5:59
So this defense definitely took a big step in the right
6:01
direction. Now, the drawback to that is
6:03
they only have three returning starters.
6:06
I only like to see the returning starters on a defense if your
6:09
defense was really, really bad. So I think this team is going to
6:13
roll depending on how quickly that defense comes together, if
6:17
indeed it does. Now you have that schedule up
6:19
there early on at BYU is not ideal.
6:23
And the only reason I didn't have a lean either way those
6:26
last five games from Halloween on.
6:29
That is a tough stretch. I mean, we're we're not breaking
6:32
down four of those teams today. But obviously, yeah, we all took
6:36
a look at them because a lot of these are on the schedules of
6:39
the eight that we're covering today.
6:41
But that could be a potentially brutal stretch there at Texas
6:47
Tech. I mean, TCU and Utah at least
6:49
are home games at Kansas State. I think Kansas State might
6:53
actually be sneaky good this year.
6:55
And the Arizona State game is the big rivalry.
6:57
So if they can steal one, maybe two of those, yeah, I think that
7:04
over is in play. But even that at West Virginia
7:07
game is kind of tough. I mean, we're not talking about
7:10
them, but I kind of like what they got going on, too.
7:12
So tough schedule, though. They definitely have an edge at
7:16
quarterback and unfortunately first of 138 teams we're going
7:20
over I, I have no pet, no lean. So yeah, I'll turn it over to
7:25
Pete. Yeah, I mean, that's a that's a
7:29
really good assessment. I mean, the offense, why do we
7:33
have the offense? Having a fourth year starter in
7:37
college football these days is very unusual.
7:39
So that is a big deal. This offense has been good.
7:42
I expect it to remain consistent.
7:46
So I think the offense will be good.
7:47
The defense has improved, as you mentioned, which is which is
7:50
also good. So I think the team is going to
7:52
be serviceably good, especially on the offensive side of the
7:55
ball. The concern and you mentioned is
7:57
this schedule. This schedule is the later games
8:00
are really tough. That West Virginia game I think
8:03
is tougher than it looks. You know, So when you look at
8:06
that 7 1/2 wins, I mean, if I was leaning anywhere, it'd be
8:09
the under 'cause I'm trying to find, I'm trying to find even
8:12
like eight wins. Where am I finding eight wins
8:14
here? I don't think I'm finding eight
8:15
wins here. So I don't see that happening.
8:17
So I think the likelihood it's going to be under that 7 1/2,
8:20
because I don't see them, excuse me, going to BYU and winning.
8:24
Arizona State's a toss up. West Virginia at West Virginia's
8:27
going to be tough. Utah's going to be tough.
8:29
Regardless. Texas Tech at Texas Tech is
8:31
going to be a problem. I mean, it, it's really hard for
8:35
me to find eight wins here. I didn't bet this, but I do
8:38
think that I'm, you know, that my lean is definitely under that
8:42
7 1/2. It's just because of the
8:43
schedule. I think the team will be
8:44
competitive and good, but the schedule's a problem, especially
8:47
later in the year. All right, one team, one
8:51
argument. So I'm looking at the
8:54
quarterback they got Fafita. So, you know, the 7 1/2 they
8:58
were, they won I think 9 games last year.
9:01
They got forfeeta coming back. They did make some additions at
9:05
the offensive line get a little bit better.
9:07
They got some depth coming in from the transfer portal, a lot
9:10
of action on the transfer portal.
9:12
But I like the quarterback for coming back for, you know, his
9:15
eighth and 9th year, whatever it is.
9:17
But yeah, I'm just on that alone.
9:20
I'm looking at the schedule I down the stretch there.
9:24
It is tough. They got Texas Tech, you know,
9:25
at Texas Tech is going to be tough.
9:26
They got Utah, but they got Utah at home, TCU at home.
9:31
I think those are winnable games.
9:32
The quarterback gives them a better chance.
9:34
A Fafita. Fafita chance, anyone?
9:38
No. Very nice, very nicely.
9:41
Oh, come on anyway, Actually because of the.
9:55
Shut up. Because of the.
9:56
Yeah, I know it's no longer funny because of the the odds.
10:01
I was going to bet them for a long shot for the conference.
10:04
Just got to think they might be able to even get to the game.
10:07
I did go 2 units on a bet here. I have them winning over 7 1/2
10:12
wins with two units on this one. I'm going with the quarterback.
10:15
Most important position. He's been there the longest,
10:17
most familiar. I think he can get up to speed
10:19
with the new receivers coming in.
10:22
They got some good players, some better schools coming in from
10:25
the transfer portal, even though my team has not been well, doing
10:30
well with the transport over the last couple years.
10:32
But I'm going to roll with Arizona.
10:33
I think they're, I think they can get to 8 wins.
10:36
I think they'll be very close to last year.
10:37
So if they can get to 8, that's more than 7 1/2.
10:40
So I'm going 2 units, 7 1/2 Arizona.
10:44
Wow, 2 units look at you. Yeah, I'm going 2 units less
10:47
bets, higher units. So last year this this
10:52
conference isn't burning me too much.
10:54
Last year I think I had like 9 bets on on the future.
10:57
So it's. A bit much.
10:59
Yeah, it is a bit much. It's such a tempting conference.
11:01
So it is. It is.
11:03
There's a lot of interesting storylines.
11:05
So we'll move on. We're gonna go, well, Arizona
11:08
State a little bit higher to win, plus 25 to win the
11:12
conference over under 6 1/2 wins, big drop off from last
11:15
year. I mean, they lost.
11:16
I mean, everybody going one of them is going to your boy down
11:21
there in Louisiana. So we'll start with Pete,
11:23
Arizona State. What are your thoughts?
11:25
Well, you mentioned one big thing, right, Sam Levitt going
11:28
South, and that's a big problem for this team, I think.
11:31
And when I look at this team, I mean, you've got coaching
11:33
continuity, which is good, but you have a lot of young players.
11:37
What? There's eight and a half, 6 1/2
11:39
win total there. That's reasonable, I think, for
11:43
this team. I think this is a team that's
11:45
built to win some games. I just don't know how they're
11:47
built to win this conference. I don't think they are built to
11:49
win this conference. At the moment.
11:50
They're playing Baylor early. Do you have the schedule here?
11:53
Yeah, I got it right here. Excellent.
11:56
They're playing Baylor relatively early, which is going
11:59
to be a really good measuring stick for this team.
12:01
We'll talk about Baylor in a little bit, obviously.
12:03
But you know, I think, you know, I think I like the coaching
12:06
staff. You know, it's just a challenge
12:08
replacing a quarterback like Sam Cutter.
12:11
Bowley seems to be an emerging name here.
12:13
That's that's coming forth with them.
12:14
So we'll see what happens there, but we don't know much about
12:18
that at this point. But yeah, I think the schedule's
12:21
a little challenging for them, especially with Baylor early and
12:24
Texas A and am was game two. I was at Michigan State, not
12:27
that it matters, but early on as well.
12:28
I mean, that's, you know, the schedule's tough.
12:31
So I think it's it's an issue for them. 6 1/2 Can I can I find
12:35
6 1/2 here maybe? So I think if I do anything or
12:39
leaning anywhere maybe over that 6 1/2, but I just don't think
12:42
this team will contend for for the conference.
12:44
I think that quarterback situation is going to be a
12:47
problem and their schedule is a is a bit challenging.
12:50
So those are my thoughts. Darren.
12:54
Yeah, I agree with the I I did have in my notes here, I leaned
12:57
to the over as well. Pete had mentioned Cutter
13:01
Bowley. I I do like that quarterback
13:03
room because they do have Mikey Keene in there as well.
13:07
I don't believe he took a snap at Michigan last year, Pete.
13:09
He didn't. He was on the team, not played
13:11
at all. But still, he's got that
13:13
experience with his time at Fresno State.
13:16
So if the bowling experiment doesn't work out, at least
13:19
you've got an experience back up there.
13:20
So I think that helps them. Again, you had mentioned they
13:23
lost a ton. I'm curious to see how they
13:26
perform in that first game against Kansas.
13:29
That's a team they should win. But those overseas games, I
13:32
believe that's in London, yeah, some of these teams that go over
13:36
there especially it seems like if you lose that game, like
13:40
your, your season just seems to be cursed or whatever.
13:42
But that kind of travel can mess with a team for for like 3 or 4
13:46
weeks after you get back. So looking at that schedule,
13:50
those, those 3 Rd. games, Texas Tech, A&M and BYU, those are
13:54
probably losses right there. So much like Pete, I look back,
13:57
I was like, OK, well, can they go nine and two or I'm sorry,
14:00
not nine and two, seven and two and whatever they had left.
14:05
And I think they can. I mean, if you're making this
14:07
bet on the over, you're betting on Kenny Dillingham.
14:10
You're remembering what he did in 2024.
14:12
I looked it up with a team. They only had nine returning
14:15
starters, you know, and he took him to a conference title.
14:19
I also agree that I don't think they're going to be competing
14:21
for that conference title. But if I had to bet on Kenny
14:25
Dillingham to win seven games with his team, I would bet that.
14:30
But I'm not going to because they did lose a ton.
14:34
Only four returning starters combined on both sides of the
14:38
ball. So I I agree with the lean on
14:41
the over. So agree.
14:43
I don't believe this team is is sniffing the conference title
14:46
game. All right, all right, let's move
14:50
on. We talked mentioned Baylor
14:52
earlier, now here they are here at +2250 to win the conference
14:55
over under his 6 1/2 wins. Darren, we can start with you
14:59
this time. How we doing?
15:01
Yeah, Pete and I were talking about this before we get before
15:04
we got going. He's he's kind of high on the
15:06
Manhattan. I'm really not.
15:08
And I'll just keep my stuff short because Pete does have a
15:10
bet here. So I want him to to have the
15:13
time. This just comes down to can I
15:16
trust two people? One, can I trust DJ Lagway so
15:20
far in his two years? I can't.
15:23
Some of it is health, some of it is probably playing in SEC.
15:26
We all grew up around horse racing, so to use an analogy
15:30
from there, maybe he's dropping in class, playing in the Big 12.
15:34
Maybe that will revive his career.
15:36
I hope for his sake it does. But you know, in his two years,
15:40
he's thrown fewer touchdown passes than the guy he's
15:43
replacing at Baylor threw last year.
15:45
So I mean, he's got to be healthy.
15:48
If he is, he's working with a whole new group of skill
15:53
players. There's only one returning
15:54
starter on that side of the ball.
15:57
So 1. Can I trust Lagway right now?
15:59
I can't. The other person I can't trust
16:01
is Dave Miranda. And Tim, I was talking to you
16:04
before we started. This team smells a lot like 2025
16:07
Oklahoma State. And and when I say that, I go
16:10
back sadly to 2023 Oklahoma State had a great year. 2024,
16:15
they are riding high. They had a terrible season in
16:18
between. After that season, there was
16:20
talk of Gundy being fired. They're trying to get him to
16:22
rework his deal. He wasn't having it.
16:25
They worked out whatever they worked out third game of the
16:27
year. He lost at home to Tulsa and
16:29
he's gone. So now I look at Aranda, who in
16:31
2021, I believe won this conference, but in the last four
16:35
years since then, he hasn't even really like sniffed that level
16:38
of success. So I have I, I right now I, and
16:42
isn't he supposed to be like a kind of a defensive guy to start
16:46
with? I, I mean, their defense has not
16:48
been good. Now, granted, they're not
16:50
bringing back a lot as far as stars going that side of the
16:52
ball. So I look at that as positive
16:54
because it probably can't get much worse, but just keep an eye
16:58
on how they start. They got back-to-back.
17:01
They play Colorado, who not a lot is expected of and I believe
17:05
they go to Arizona State and then there's a bye week.
17:09
All I'm saying if we're going to see a coaching change and
17:11
Baylor's not off to the start that they want to be off to, we
17:15
saw a lot of in season coaching changes on that Sunday leading
17:19
into a bye week. So, you know, the Auburn game
17:22
will be tough. That's basically a road game,
17:24
even though it's it's technically neutral site.
17:27
But I mean, is 3 and two before that by?
17:32
Is that good enough for Baylor? I don't know.
17:34
I owe for his sake. It is.
17:35
He seems like he's a nice guy, but he's always on the hot seat
17:38
rankings. Mark from coachsasi.com ever
17:40
since we found his work. Yeah, Iran is always up there.
17:43
So for me, it just comes to those two guys right now.
17:46
They've showed me nothing recently that tells me I can
17:48
trust them to hit this win total.
17:51
I didn't touch it, but I do have a small lean to the under here.
17:56
And Pete, tell me what? Yeah, this is, this is an
18:00
interesting one, right, Because yeah, there's there's #1 Dave
18:03
Aranda has not done much in the last four years.
18:06
That's been an issue with this team.
18:07
Now, this conference is difficult, as we just talked
18:10
about. There's, you know, it seems to
18:12
be a cycle. Every year it's another team
18:13
stepping up and everybody else seems to fall back.
18:15
So there is a little bit of that Big 12 thing going on, whatever
18:20
that is not letting him off the hook, but that that is certainly
18:24
in the backdrop here. DJ Lagway, right.
18:27
So no, I do not believe that the upside of this team is winning
18:31
this conference, right? I, I don't see the elite ceiling
18:34
with this team. I don't think that's going to
18:36
happen. You know, you know, the schedule
18:38
we'll talk about in a second, but I just don't see it now.
18:42
Could could I do I think that Lagway will make a difference in
18:45
this offense? I actually do, as you mentioned,
18:48
I like the analogy you said with, you know, kind of going
18:50
down in class. This is a step down in class.
18:53
It's taking a spotlight off a guy that in a place he was
18:56
before gets a ton of spotlight. It's a different situation.
19:01
You know, Baylor's a team that plays differently than Florida
19:04
does. This is just different.
19:06
So I kind of like that. That 6 1/2 is interesting to me,
19:10
right? So the the bet I'm making is on
19:12
the over and looking through this schedule right here, do I
19:15
see seven wins? I think I can see 1/2.
19:20
I I could see 4-5 pretty clearly.
19:23
So where do the other two come from?
19:26
Yeah, I mean, they're going to have to step up and do
19:27
something. They're not going to win a
19:28
BIPYU. So November 14th is out.
19:31
Texas Tech at home, Who knows, maybe if they're hot, they could
19:34
do something. Who knows?
19:36
You know, UCF quite possibly. Prior review, sure.
19:41
Louisiana Tech, sure. Colorado, yes, Arizona State's
19:45
going to be tough. So I don't know.
19:46
I mean, I'm, it's a little bit of a flier to me.
19:49
I think they're going to be right around that 6-7 win mark.
19:53
I'm just, I'm just thinking that as the team starts to gel a
19:57
little bit because they do have a couple of early games that I
20:00
think they can win. Period.
20:02
As they start to gel a little bit later in the year, I do
20:04
think they could be dangerous. If Lagway does what he could do,
20:08
I'm really betting on. I'm betting on Lagway stepping
20:10
up, being better in this situation and and finding that
20:15
you know 7. So I am betting 1 unit on the
20:18
over here just because I think that will happen now I'll bet.
20:21
I think it's her or whatever forget it right, So who knows,
20:23
but at least from that perspective, I think he will be
20:26
refreshed being in a place with a spotlight off of him and I
20:31
think that will help. So that's that's my thoughts on
20:33
this team. OK, that's interesting.
20:37
But two arguments and or two at least disagreements in three
20:40
teams, that ain't bad for us. I don't think so.
20:43
Not bad at all. Last year's darlings for me, we
20:49
got the BYU plus 7:50 to win the conference over under 8 1/2
20:52
wins. They one of my winning bets for
20:55
last year for the win total. Not so much for the conference.
20:59
Peter, let's start with you. We're looking at BYU.
21:02
Yeah, this is also a bet here for me to win this conference.
21:07
I think BYU is going to be quite, quite good this year.
21:10
They have been quite good. So this is not coming out of
21:13
nowhere by any means. They're they're a good team.
21:16
I especially like their early schedule.
21:19
I think their early schedule, they can gain some momentum with
21:21
some of these teams because they should be winning, you know,
21:24
probably all four of those first games.
21:27
It would be my thought and starting to get some momentum
21:29
there. So I do think that will serve
21:31
them well. You know, I I don't see anything
21:35
that scares the hell out of me on the schedule, honestly.
21:38
So they go to Utah, That's always interesting, right.
21:41
Outside of that, they have Notre Dame, sure, but that's not
21:43
that's not a conference game. So don't really care.
21:47
But yeah, I mean, I think if you look at the schedule, you look
21:50
at the quality of this team, at the way this team has performed
21:53
for a number of years now. And I really and and really the
21:58
transfers and the newcomers coming in will add some, I
22:01
think, depth to this team. You know, I do think that this
22:04
is a really interesting opportunity to for them to win
22:08
this conference, right? So they have a high ceiling and
22:12
we're going to find out in this chaotic conference what they can
22:14
do. But I, I think their schedule
22:16
leans into them doing quite well and being in play, right?
22:20
They're, they're certainly going to be in play because I don't
22:22
see a lot of losses in the schedule.
22:24
So that's going to serve them well.
22:25
So from that perspective, I think their schedule leans in,
22:30
you know, the player continuity, the players that are there and
22:32
the the newcomers they brought in will will help them quite a
22:35
bit. So I do really think this team
22:38
will be quite good this year. So I do have a one unit bet on
22:42
them to win this conference. Those are my thoughts.
22:46
Darren. Darren.
22:48
Yeah, I'm going to keep it short.
22:50
I kind of got in depth about BYU month ago on the national
22:52
championship show. I have 1/2 unit on them to win
22:57
the whole damn thing at 125 to 1.
23:00
Tim, if you don't mind, put that schedule back up there.
23:04
I mean, I've been trying to find 3 losses on here.
23:07
For me was was difficult. They do struggle at TCU.
23:12
So I mean, maybe keep an eye on that one.
23:14
But I mean, outside of Notre Dame in Utah, I mean, what other
23:18
games could you look at and say, well, they, they have a less
23:20
than 50% chance of winning that game.
23:22
I I just don't see it. The quarterback is back.
23:25
The running back is back. More importantly, the head coach
23:27
is back. He said no thanks to Penn State.
23:29
I think that does something to those guys currently on that
23:32
team say, hey, you know what? He didn't ditch us for Penn
23:34
State. He's staying right here.
23:36
One of the few teams in this conference with a lot of
23:38
defensive starters coming back. I mean, I love this team.
23:43
I got 5 futures bats already. Two of them involved the the
23:45
fighting Mormon. So yeah, I I've got over 8 1/2
23:48
here, 1 unit. I did not do half unit one unit
23:52
over 8 1/2 one O 8, which is still available at FanDuel as
23:55
we're sitting here. So I, I just yeah, I, I mean, I
24:00
love this team this year, man. I, I think 8 1/2 is is more than
24:05
doable here. Yeah.
24:07
Yeah, we gotta have #47 up there on the graphic, so.
24:10
There. I went.
24:12
I went last year. Schedule.
24:13
No Houston, no Texas Tech. I'm not even super high on Utah.
24:18
I took a quick peek at them before and I.
24:21
Yeah, it's to be a new next week.
24:23
Yeah, definitely like over there.
24:26
It wouldn't surprise as much as this conference is messed up, it
24:29
would not really surprise me if we had the same conference title
24:31
game as we had last year. Yeah.
24:34
Right. We're gonna move on to
24:37
Cincinnati. Here they are.
24:38
Plus, 7500 to win a conference over under his five and a half
24:43
wins. Peter, let's start with you for
24:45
the Bearcats. Yeah, if you look at those
24:48
numbers, I mean, to me, this, this is a A-Team that's probably
24:51
priced right at the moment. I, I, I don't, I don't see a
24:54
tremendous amount of upside off of that.
24:56
You know, I think you've got a, you've got a young QB room here.
24:59
You know, their schedule early is, is, is relatively favorable
25:03
for them. So I think that's positive.
25:05
But that their mid season stretch is tough.
25:08
If you look at that middle that that's, that's pretty
25:11
challenging for them. So I, I don't know.
25:14
I mean, for me, they'll be competitive.
25:16
You know, I just think they're A-Team.
25:19
They're a team that I think is in danger if, if one of the
25:21
young QBs don't step up, this is a team that's in quickly in
25:25
danger of falling to the bottom half of this conference, right?
25:27
That's, that's what concerns me about them is I just don't see
25:31
the upside. I see them at best being
25:34
serviceable, maybe dangerous in the right situation, but I
25:38
really, really don't think they can to play with the better
25:43
teams in this conference. So from a conference
25:44
championship perspective, no. And from the wins perspective, I
25:48
think they're priced where they should be.
25:50
So to me it's a no bet. So that's where I am on them.
25:53
It's the opposite of Arizona with the quarterback.
25:55
Their quarterback left. Yeah, some new transfer coming
25:58
in. Darren, what do you think about
25:59
Cincinnati? Yeah, not high on the Bearcats
26:03
either. I mean, the best guess is the
26:06
Georgia Southern kid French wins the job and again to use another
26:11
horse racing now he's stepping up in class to A to a powerful
26:14
conference. He's he's going to see some
26:15
stuff he hasn't seen before this schedule.
26:19
Also, I mean, you look in there, you got the road game against
26:22
Arizona and I am going to mention West Virginia in here
26:24
because I think they're going to be a a tough out for anybody.
26:27
You got what Houston's on there, BYU's on there.
26:31
You got to host Texas Tech in Utah and again, the defense
26:35
coordinator is brand new. He runs something that
26:37
Cincinnati does not normally run or had run in the past.
26:40
That's going to take some time. I I this was one of the last
26:45
bets I'd I'd crossed off, but I do have a lean here to the under
26:49
5 1/2 fan. Well, it's minus one O 8.
26:52
So you're actually getting a decent price on that.
26:54
So do this. I was going to bet the under.
26:57
I wouldn't bet myself. Mike, don't do it.
26:59
Don't do it. One bet, one bet.
27:01
Don't go crazy. But yeah, I was living the under
27:03
here nice analogy with the horse race and he's going from maiden
27:07
special weight to maybe a grade 3.
27:09
So yeah, that's a big, that's a big step up in class there for
27:12
the. Court but not call the big 12A
27:13
graded. OK, starter.
27:16
Off. Starter off an 8080 thousand
27:19
dollar allowance. Maybe at best.
27:22
At best. Well, I figured SEC Big 10
27:25
that's your Grade 1. I figured maybe, maybe the ACC,
27:29
maybe grade two or three, I don't know.
27:31
But well, it's not Maiden, Maiden claiming 5000 at
27:37
Charlestown or something. Oh, come on.
27:41
Speaking of a huge 5000 claiming, here we go.
27:45
That Colorado plus 10,000 to win a conference over under 4 1/2
27:49
wins. I feel bad for Coach Prime.
27:51
I hope he turns it around. Not touching this one at all.
27:56
Darren, let's start with you with Coach Prime and the
27:58
Buffaloes. If you could find an alternate
28:01
win total of 3 1/2 and get some plus money on the under, I would
28:05
take that in a minute. The the finest 170 at FanDuel to
28:10
go under 4 1/2 is way too high and that tells you that a 3 1/2
28:15
might not be far off on the horizon.
28:18
I think this is Dion's last year.
28:20
I mean, his health is is a concern.
28:24
You know, all of his kids are gone.
28:27
He did great in the portal. He always does great in the
28:29
portal. But the problem is, well,
28:31
they've had 18 conference games in the last two years.
28:33
He's lost 16 of them. I think either way, whether he
28:38
gets let go or whether he quits at the end of the year, and I
28:40
think they'll probably let him leave on his own terms.
28:43
This team does not look good this year.
28:45
I mean, Julian Lewis could be something he got a little bit of
28:48
of playing time last year. But other than that, what I
28:52
mean, what does this team have? I mean, the defense is bad.
28:54
They don't have any starters coming back, so maybe that
28:57
helps. It can't get worse.
29:00
Addition by subtraction. So yeah, for, for defense, I I
29:03
totally believe in that. But you've only got 1 returning
29:06
starter on the offensive line, so Lewis could spend half the
29:09
season running for his life. Who knows, you know new
29:12
coordinators on both sides of the ball do not like this team
29:16
at all. Under 4 1/2.
29:18
I don't want to use lock, but damn, if you can find 3 1/2 and
29:22
and get an alternate or get a get a nice plus number on that,
29:26
I would do that. This team, I'm predicting this
29:28
team last in the conference. It does not look promising.
29:31
All right, Peter. Man, it's hard to argue any of
29:35
that. I mean, are we, are we kind of
29:37
determining here that Dion really can't coach very well?
29:40
I mean, if we come to that conclusion, because it's easy to
29:43
coach when you have a couple superstars in your team that are
29:46
both, you know, potential Heisman Trophy candidate, you
29:50
know, candidates when you don't have that and you have a normal
29:53
team and this team has been not good.
29:56
And I agree, I think this team is going to be abysmally bad
29:59
this year. I mean, I, I don't I don't know
30:02
what they're doing with this. I don't like their roster.
30:05
Sorry, Tim. I don't like their coach as a
30:07
coach. He can draft and he cannot
30:09
coach. I don't know what he's going to
30:12
do here. I don't know what's going to
30:13
happen with the QB position. That defense is garbage.
30:17
Their schedule is brutal pretty early.
30:21
I mean, this is an interesting team from the betting
30:23
perspective week to week because could they beat somebody at some
30:27
point perhaps, right? If you can find the right slot
30:32
it, it might work right somewhere on the schedule, but
30:35
like a a full season bet on them.
30:38
I I I don't I think they're just going to be bad.
30:41
So I don't really know what the best.
30:42
So from that perspective, I I'm I'm out, I, I just I think
30:46
Dionne will be gone by the end of this year.
30:48
I think he'll take himself out or they'll have a discussion
30:51
with him to take him to health out.
30:52
But I think he's going to be. Gone.
30:53
I think it's like health reasons and, you know, let him know.
30:56
Or incompetence, you know, But both, maybe.
30:58
Well, yeah, but you know, figure, I mean, he did have a
31:00
couple, you know, years there where he got everybody excited
31:03
and everything for whatever reason.
31:04
So and it. They retired his son's number so
31:07
well. It was his son.
31:08
It was his son and you know. What else is telling?
31:12
Did you hear some some of these guys that transferred out of
31:15
Colorado and went to other schools saying that like now,
31:20
like Jordan Seton, offensive lineman who went to LSU, he's
31:23
saying this is like a totally different atmosphere.
31:26
You know, we're we're getting coached, but you know, we're
31:28
actually accomplishing things in practice.
31:32
I mean, and he's not the only ex Buffalo to say that.
31:36
So I mean, I mean, if you're Dionne, you got all the money in
31:40
the world. Focus on yourself.
31:43
Just go do something else, man Watch.
31:45
Your I always wondered about their coaching staff, 'cause I
31:47
think Warren Sapp is coaching the line, Marshall Faulk
31:50
coaching the running backs, and you just wonder maybe they were
31:52
just too good. It's like, you know, say why
31:55
can't you just bowl over these people say, well, we're not you
31:58
Coach SAP. You know, why can't you just run
32:00
over, run around everybody and do three 60s and everything?
32:03
Well, we're not you, Coach Faulk.
32:04
That's why we can't do this. You know, maybe they're they're
32:07
really great players. Sometimes don't make the best
32:09
coaches. It's always, you know, yeah, a
32:11
great it's always the backup, the backup quarterback and stuff
32:14
like that that makes the the good coaches.
32:16
But we'll see what happens and, you know, hopefully, you know,
32:18
Butron gets better and he can concentrate on his health there.
32:22
Let's move over to Houston +1750 to win the conference over under
32:27
7 1/2 wins and oh crap, Darren, we'll start with you.
32:31
I just deleted my notes, so we'll start with you, Darren.
32:34
Yeah, this is this is everybody's hot trendy pick to
32:40
be in the conference title game. So naturally I want to try and
32:43
find a reason to to go against that.
32:47
There's not many reasons to go against that.
32:49
I mean, I don't have a bet here. I do like the over 7 1/2, but at
32:54
-150 that's a little too much juice for me to lay here.
32:59
Anytime you got the quarterback coming back, in this case Connor
33:02
Wegman, that's a good thing. The one interesting pick up,
33:04
Makai Hughes, the running back from Oregon, who did not do
33:08
barely anything with the Ducks last year.
33:10
But remember, he played for Tulane with Willie Fritz a
33:14
couple years ago and he was incredibly productive.
33:16
So now he's back with Willie Fritz here at Houston.
33:19
So I expect offensively this team to click right out of the
33:23
gate. The only concerns on defense
33:26
their their guy who led the team with 7 sacks is gone.
33:28
Their top 2 tacklers are gone, but they did OK in the portal.
33:31
You know they've still got 6 returning starters on defense.
33:35
I I don't see too many holes with this team.
33:38
Man, if if I can get a little bit better number than -150 on
33:42
that over, I would probably I don't feel comfortable enough
33:46
going alternate 8 1/2 here because they do have Rd. games
33:49
at Texas Tech and Utah and there's a couple other tricky
33:53
Rd. game there, Kansas State and and our darling West Virginia.
33:57
So yeah, that those two games could be tricky there.
34:01
But I I almost had them to to win the conference, but I had
34:07
like 7 leans after breaking down these eight teams.
34:10
I had to kind of I didn't want to be Tim and have like 11 half
34:16
a conference in. I did not need, you know, double
34:18
digit futures bets already, but I do like Houston here with that
34:23
with that over the win total, but I I held off no bet for me.
34:30
Peter. Yeah, Darren, you said, you said
34:33
a lot of it already. I mean, this is a, this is a
34:35
good team. There's continuity here.
34:39
So I do like that. I, I, it's clear why people are
34:42
picking them as a team that could do something.
34:44
Absolutely. I mean, the Big 12 is well, a
34:47
mess anyway, or just interesting or whatever you want to call it,
34:50
whatever verb you want to use. But if it turns into chaos, this
34:53
is a team that really could take advantage of that, right?
34:57
This is a team that's good enough, could be in position to
34:59
take advantage of that has the right coaching staff to do it.
35:02
I mean, this is a team that could make noise and do
35:05
something and end up right in the conference championship
35:08
game. I would not be surprised here if
35:09
they did. So certainly possible.
35:11
I think the the other schedule here, Tim, I think this early
35:14
schedule a little bit little bit challenging going to Texas Tech
35:19
at least a little bit there. But I mean, really, if you look
35:22
at this for the over as Darren was talking about, I mean,
35:25
there's there's I could pick up quite a few wins here.
35:27
I mean, going to West Virginia could be challenging, especially
35:30
later in the year. We would expect that team to
35:32
keep getting better. You know, Oregon sedate, you
35:36
know, but but you know, southern Georgia Southern too, UCF and
35:40
there's some there is definitely some opportunity for them to hit
35:44
that over here and for sure to to to to make a run at the
35:49
conference. If it turns into chaos, which it
35:52
could, right. And that's what's going to be
35:54
interesting about the Big 12 overall, right?
35:56
There's one clear favorite, which we're talking about next
35:59
week, next next show. But outside of that, there's a
36:04
bunch of teams that are just like right there that could do
36:07
something. This is one of those teams,
36:09
right? That's how I'd view them.
36:11
So I think if it's interesting, they could certainly do
36:13
something. So we'll have to see how the
36:14
first few weeks play out in this conference.
36:16
But this is a quality team. So, but I do not have a bet
36:19
here. So those are my thoughts.
36:23
I just want to say one other thing and one of the reasons I
36:26
did not go with a conference bet here.
36:27
You look at that schedule, you see those, those Rd. games,
36:31
Texas Tech, Kansas State, Utah losses there that that could
36:35
affect the tiebreaker scenario. If you go to head to head and
36:39
Houston has lost a couple of those.
36:42
You know, if they're, you know, if they're sitting seven and two
36:45
in the conference with one of those other teams and one of
36:46
their two losses is to any of those teams who also might
36:49
happen to be 7 and two, you know, they they could be out,
36:53
you know, because of a tie breaker.
36:54
I'd feel better if they had, you know, one of those teams like at
36:57
home. It seems like all the good teams
37:00
on their schedule, they have to go there.
37:02
So that, that, that kind of dissuaded me a little bit, but.
37:09
Yeah, that that could be a factor for sure.
37:11
I mean, this, this whole, this whole conference, it's like we
37:15
said, it's, it's nuts at. The peace point now they could
37:18
win all three of those and I could have no.
37:20
Idea. Yeah, they're capable of doing
37:24
that. They could.
37:24
So they are. They really are.
37:28
And finally, for this show, we got Iowa State plus 7500 to win
37:32
the conference over under 5 1/2 wins.
37:35
I was leaning heavily under for the win total this year.
37:38
I mean, quarterback's gone, coach left for Penn State.
37:41
I believe 2 most important things you can have.
37:44
And they're they're doing a total revamp.
37:48
They're heavily on a transfer portal.
37:50
We started with Darren, I believe last time.
37:52
So, Pete, let's start with you with Iowa State.
37:55
Yeah, this is a team. I mean, yeah.
37:56
So clearly some of the major things like head coach turnover,
38:02
you know, UV and all that are not right.
38:05
It would suggest as a team that's going to have some
38:08
growing pains and struggle and evolve and all that stuff going
38:12
on for sure. So I think trying even this team
38:15
is not a conference winner. Bet no over 5 1/2.
38:22
It depends. I mean, I think it depends.
38:25
I wouldn't bet it right now because I think it's a bit of a
38:27
challenge. I don't know where that's going
38:28
at this point, but you know, could, you know, could they
38:32
become dangerous game by game later in the year, potentially,
38:38
potentially they could. But you know, for what we're
38:40
doing here, right, this is a, this is not a, you know, weekly
38:43
let's bet them. So who knows I could end up
38:45
betting them in you know, week 9 or something.
38:46
But at the moment, you know, for, for the conference, for
38:49
total wins. I, I don't I don't know, there's
38:52
too many unknowns here with them.
38:54
I really don't know what to expect New head coach.
38:56
It's hard to get a grip on what's going to happen there.
39:00
Yeah, I don't. I don't, I don't know.
39:01
I said no bet for me. I just don't think they're going
39:03
to be all that good. So that's my thoughts.
39:06
Darren. Yeah, I, I feel bad for for the
39:10
fan bases that, yeah, when they have a coach leave for whatever
39:14
the reason is and like half the coaching staff, half the team,
39:19
they all bolt at the same time and usually end up at the same
39:21
school. Like Marshall a couple years ago
39:23
when they got rid of Charles Hough, everybody went to
39:27
Southern Miss and they couldn't even play in their bowl game.
39:29
I'm like, you know, I felt bad for the for the fans of the
39:32
Thundering Herd. I kind of feel the same here for
39:36
for Iowa State. I mean, this is a team that, you
39:38
know, doesn't really spend the money on the football program.
39:43
They're not very active in the transfer portal.
39:47
So shout out to to Matt Campbell for getting all those wins when
39:51
he did there. And again, it's probably part of
39:53
the reason I'm kind of high on Penn State because, you know, he
39:55
is a really good coach. That being said, I do like the
39:59
Jimmy Rogers higher. Washington State was a pretty
40:02
good football team. I love that he brought his
40:04
defense coordinator with him. You know, a lot of people
40:06
probably don't know this because their kickoffs are, you know,
40:09
10:30 Eastern. They had a pretty solid defense
40:12
there last year. So they also brought a handful
40:15
of defensive players with him. So I like what?
40:17
They could look like defensively, I'm not against
40:21
getting Jalen Rayner from Arkansas State to be the
40:24
quarterback. So I mean, there's there is some
40:27
promise there. He's got to cut down on the
40:29
picks though. He had double digit picks last
40:31
year. I got a feeling he's going to be
40:33
doing a lot of throwing in some of these games.
40:35
But you know, this team, let's see last lowest returning
40:40
production in the Big 12. Only three Power Four teams
40:43
actually have less than them. 2nd to last ranked Portal class
40:47
in the Big 12, no returning starters on either side of the
40:51
ball and a win total of 5 1/2. So you're telling me this
40:54
completely revamped team is going to make a bowl game?
40:59
That's a huge ask regardless of who your coach is.
41:03
I just don't think the personnel is there.
41:06
You know, you got that non conference game, you go to Iowa,
41:09
that's probably not going to go well.
41:11
And then you got Utah, West Virginia, you go to BYU, you go
41:14
to Arizona, you got Oklahoma State and their offense should
41:17
improve by leaps and bounds. Rd. game at Baylor at I mean
41:22
then at Kansas State. This is just kind of a tough
41:25
schedule for a team that is basically rebuilding.
41:29
Next year. I will probably be all over this
41:31
team because I like some of the pieces that they've brought in.
41:35
But considering everything they've lost, how little they
41:38
got back, you know, and the quality of what they got back in
41:42
the portal. I mean, if this team makes a
41:45
bowl game, dude, Jimmy Rogers should be considered coach of
41:48
the year. It's just it's just a lot to
41:51
overcome, especially in a powerful conference.
41:53
So unfortunately, I am kind of down on them this year.
41:58
I think 2027 is more likely going to be there a year to do
42:03
something, but that schedule's tough.
42:05
I mean, those conference games are teams that are either
42:07
improving or are already halfway decent.
42:10
But there's just so many holes that that needed to be filled
42:14
here. And, you know, it just comes
42:17
down to can this team make a bowl game?
42:18
Because that's what you that's what you're betting on if you're
42:21
if you're doing anything with this wind soil.
42:23
I just don't see it, unfortunately.
42:26
So yeah, I I do have one unit on the under 5 1/2 -115 and MGM is
42:33
the best number. It's like -134 at FanDuel.
42:35
So if you've got MGM, go there for a little bit less juice.
42:39
But yeah, probably all over this team next year.
42:43
But I am going to watch that Iowa State, Iowa game because
42:45
Iowa is one of the three teams that actually has lower
42:48
returning production than I. For whatever reason, Iowa always
42:54
seems to come up with a defense no matter what.
42:57
So. Pre answer it under a bit for
43:00
that game. Yeah, it's, it's, it's just too
43:03
much to overcome basically. So I'm rolling with the under
43:06
here. All right, let's wrap this up.
43:11
We're getting done here. Let's still recap our bets.
43:14
I have a 2 unit bet on Arizona over 7 1/2 wins.
43:18
Pete, what you got? I've got Baylor over 6 1/2 wins
43:22
one unit and I've got the raging Mormons BYU to win the
43:25
conference with one unit as well.
43:28
And to continue mine and Pete's run on the three letter
43:32
colleges, you know, we're both on LSU winning the national
43:36
championship. I'm also on BYU here, except I'm
43:38
going over that 8 1/2 win total. And IO State I'm going under
43:43
their win total. If I'm so, does that mean
43:46
ACCFSU? Yeah, No, probably not.
43:54
This wasn't that strong. I don't think so.
43:59
You got to get the good weed down there in Mexico.
44:00
So all right guys, everyone, thank you for listening.
44:05
Please help us out like and subscribe on YouTube and on
44:08
Spotify. We'll be back with the other
44:10
half of this conference for our next show.
44:13
Until then, thank you all for listening.
44:15
We'll see you next time.