Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Still-raging Hurricane Melissa makes landfall in eastern Cuba

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Still-raging Hurricane Melissa makes landfall in eastern Cuba · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: We're starting in the Caribbean, where Hurricane Melissa has now
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  Speaker 1: slammed into eastern Cuba. Cuban authorities say more than seven
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  Speaker 1: hundred thousand people have been evacuated, with forecasters warning that
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  Speaker 1: Melissa could unleash catastrophic damage in and around Santiago did Cuba,
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  Speaker 1: as the country's second biggest city. The hurricane was downgraded
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  Speaker 1: to a still powerful Category three storm after pounding Jamaica.
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  Speaker 1: Jamaican authorities have declared the entire island a disaster area
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  Speaker 1: and a warning residence that flooding and landslides remain a
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  Speaker 1: serious risk.
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  Speaker 2: When Hurricane Melissa slammed into Jamaica, it was the most
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  Speaker 2: powerful storm to make landfall, even recorded winds of almost
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  Speaker 2: three hundred kilometers per hour pound at the coast, with
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  Speaker 2: authorities calling it the worst case scenario.
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  Speaker 3: Jamia Kazganshu what I can call one of its worst
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  Speaker 3: period for structures being severely compromised. Saint Elizabeth is a
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  Speaker 3: bread basket of the country and that has taken our beating.
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  Speaker 3: The entire Jamaica has felt the brunt of Melissa.
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  Speaker 2: At the peak of its power, the storm smashed buildings,
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  Speaker 2: tore down trees, and sint water surging into the streets
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  Speaker 2: of the capital, Kingston, but the eye of the storm
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  Speaker 2: didn't directly hit the city, and residents are grateful.
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  Speaker 4: Take a right turn and I'll go our own.
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  Speaker 5: It benefit me.
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  Speaker 6: I'm really sorry for all really touched, because my fellow
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  Speaker 6: told me we are in love. If you look at it,
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  Speaker 6: it would be like we get in some dangerous thing
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  Speaker 6: and it just divert and shift and take it to
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  Speaker 6: most like the countryside. Hours thinking I was saying, yeah,
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  Speaker 6: God is saying something to somebody down Europe.
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  Speaker 2: Hurricane Melissa sliced through Jamaica before making its way to Cuba,
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  Speaker 2: about one hundred kilometers to the north. While the storm
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  Speaker 2: has been downgraded, the impact is expected to be fierce.
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  Speaker 2: There will be much work to do.
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  Speaker 7: We know that there will be a lot of damage
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  Speaker 7: caused by this hurricane, but we have all the capacity
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  Speaker 7: to recover.
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  Speaker 2: Once the storm has passed, the focus will shift to
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  Speaker 2: recovery for both islands, but authorities in Jamaica have already
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  Speaker 2: warned it will be slow going.
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  Speaker 1: I'm joined now by doctor Helen Hooker. She's a meteorologist
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  Speaker 1: and hydrologist specializing in research on the impacts of Climate
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  Speaker 1: Change at the University of Reading in the UK. Thanks
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  Speaker 1: so much for joining us, Helen. Hurricane Melissa is obviously
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  Speaker 1: making the history books in terms of its strength and impact.
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  Speaker 1: You tell us what's most unusual about this storm from
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  Speaker 1: a meteorological point of view.
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  Speaker 5: So, I think the unusual aspects of Hurricane Melissa. I
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  Speaker 5: think particularly the way that it rapidly intensified, so became
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  Speaker 5: extremely strong over the Atlantic and the Caribbean seas as
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  Speaker 5: it approached Jamaica, and actually because it was moving extremely slowly,
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  Speaker 5: it enabled it to deepen very quickly, and then it's
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  Speaker 5: just sustained a category five status for a considerable amount
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  Speaker 5: of time, which is unusual for a hurricane this late
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  Speaker 5: in the hurricane season.
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  Speaker 1: So if we're talking about or looking at its sort
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  Speaker 1: of incredibly rapid intensification, is that also fueled by warming
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  Speaker 1: sea surface temperatures?
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  Speaker 5: Yes, exactly. So we know that the Caribbean Sea at
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  Speaker 5: the moment is around one and a half to two
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  Speaker 5: degrees above what would be termed usual for this time
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  Speaker 5: of year, So exceptional heat in the ocean, which we
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  Speaker 5: know has been absorbed from our warmer climate, and this
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  Speaker 5: really gives the fuel to the hurricane and enables it
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  Speaker 5: to deepen and become incredibly strong.
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  Speaker 1: Is it unusual to see such a big storm this
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  Speaker 1: late in the year.
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  Speaker 5: Well, usually we have the peak of the hurricane season
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  Speaker 5: in September, but what we're seeing in recent years is
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  Speaker 5: actually the hurricane season lengthening. So we had Hurricane Beryl
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  Speaker 5: earlier in the season, and now we have Hurricane Melissa
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  Speaker 5: later in the season at a very high category, in fact,
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  Speaker 5: the highest landfall intensity or strength ever recorded in the
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  Speaker 5: Atlantic Ocean.
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  Speaker 1: So apart from the warming ocean temperatures that you were
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  Speaker 1: just talking about, how else is climate change driving this
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  Speaker 1: new pattern?
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  Speaker 5: Well, I think climate change in particular is impact in
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  Speaker 5: the amount of brainfall we're now getting from hurricanes. So
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  Speaker 5: the war motion can give extra moisture and this is
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  Speaker 5: drawn up into the hurricane, and with it moving quite slowly,
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  Speaker 5: it meant that an exceptional amount of moisture was held
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  Speaker 5: within the hurricane. And then as it moves over land,
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  Speaker 5: all of that moisture then falls is rainfall, and it
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  Speaker 5: can now fall more heavily, so there's more intense rainfall
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  Speaker 5: than without climate change, which means it accumulates quickly. And
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  Speaker 5: then this then leads to the devastating impacts that we've seen,
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  Speaker 5: such as flooding and landslides.
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  Speaker 1: If we can talk about the path that Hurricane Melissa
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  Speaker 1: is taking, it looks quite erratic. What factors play into
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  Speaker 1: how and where it travels?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, so this depends on the meteorological situation kind of
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  Speaker 5: across a wider area, so where there are high pressures
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  Speaker 5: and low pressures, and these actually steer the hurricane on
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  Speaker 5: its track. So it's taking its kind of usual path now.
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  Speaker 5: So it tracked westwards across the Atlantic, and then it
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  Speaker 5: will turn and then travel northwards, and then it will
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  Speaker 5: actually go back across the Atlantic eventually as it decays.
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  Speaker 5: So I think this is a fairly usual pattern for hurricanes.
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  Speaker 5: And then the speed at which they travel can vary,
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  Speaker 5: and we've seen with Melissa as it costs an approach Jamaica,
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  Speaker 5: it was traveling extremely slowly. It's now moving a bit quicker,
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  Speaker 5: but still expected to bring further impacts to those Caribbean
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  Speaker 5: islands in its path.
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  Speaker 1: And in terms of those those impacts and Melissa's behavior,
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  Speaker 1: what lessons can we learn? What lessons can coastal communities
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  Speaker 1: in particular learn from Hurricane Melissa.
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  Speaker 5: Well, I think Hurricane Melissa was extremely well forecast, and
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  Speaker 5: I think islands such as Jamaica seemed incredibly well prepared
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  Speaker 5: in good time. And I think that's because of the
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  Speaker 5: improvements in the forecast, particularly of the track where the
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  Speaker 5: hurricane is going to travel, which really helps to minimize impacts.
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  Speaker 5: Although with a hurricane of this strength, there's only so
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  Speaker 5: much you can do to protect infrastructure. I think lives
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  Speaker 5: can be saved by moving people out of harm's way,
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  Speaker 5: but probably I guess improvements to infrastructure and protection is
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  Speaker 5: probably what will be needed going forwards.
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  Speaker 1: Helen Hooker from the University of Reading. Helen, thanks so much.
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  Speaker 5: Thank you.
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  Speaker 7: Meteorologist Matthew Capucci is tracking the storm. I asked him
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  Speaker 7: if the downgrading of the hurricane is good news for
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  Speaker 7: countries still in its path.
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  Speaker 4: It is from a wind standpoints, so when we talk
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  Speaker 4: about hurricane ratings, this category one through five system to
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  Speaker 4: the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale, but that only ascribes ratings
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  Speaker 4: based on wind speed, not necessarily how much rain is
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  Speaker 4: coming down, and not the storm surge, that wall of
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  Speaker 4: water pushed against the coastline. And so yes, the winds
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  Speaker 4: aren't quite as bad as they were before, but still
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  Speaker 4: as soon as Melissa pulled away from Jamaica, it began
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  Speaker 4: re intensifying once again over the incredibly warm Caribbean waters
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  Speaker 4: north of Jamaica. So this thing is still packing quite
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  Speaker 4: the punch, and it's also going to push water against
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  Speaker 4: the coast and lead to heavy rainfall. One thing I
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  Speaker 4: found very interesting in that story ran a moment ago
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  Speaker 4: the woman described the deafening noise of the hurricane. For
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  Speaker 4: anyone who hasn't lived through a hurricane before, you can't
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  Speaker 4: imagine the roar route side. It's like standing next to
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  Speaker 4: a waterfall for six twelve hours on end, all the
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  Speaker 4: air rushing past you, the fluid rushing past you. The
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  Speaker 4: experience people in eastern Cuba are about to go through
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  Speaker 4: will be an incredibly memorable one, and I do help
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  Speaker 4: folks there have taken.
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  Speaker 7: Precautions, Matthew, you track hurricanes regularly. Is this one Hurricane
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  Speaker 7: Melissa developing the way you expected?
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  Speaker 4: You know, in meteorology, there's this figure called potential intensity.
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  Speaker 4: It's actually a mathematical equation and a mathematical idea created
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  Speaker 4: by a brilliant hurricane research at MIT called carry Manual.
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  Speaker 4: He's an amazing guy. And it's basically, if you had
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  Speaker 4: ideal conditions in the atmosphere, what's the maximum a hurricane
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  Speaker 4: could reach. What's the high end ceiling. It's usually a
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  Speaker 4: theoretical value. Melissa got incredibly close to this ceiling, which
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  Speaker 4: is something we very rarely see. It had extremely warm
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  Speaker 4: water temperatures, favorable winds in the upper atmosphere, robust moisture.
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  Speaker 4: Every box was checked off. And so while I knew
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  Speaker 4: it was possible for a storm to get this strong
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  Speaker 4: in theory, to have that happen and continue intensifying into
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  Speaker 4: a land mass with two point eight million people on
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  Speaker 4: it is something sort of unprecedented in the modern era
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  Speaker 4: in the Western hemisphere.
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  Speaker 7: How does this hurricane compare to others that have struck
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  Speaker 7: the Caribbean in the past. Are we seeing a new
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  Speaker 7: pattern emerging here? Matthew.
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  Speaker 4: I think that's a very good question and what I
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  Speaker 4: should answer with a little bit of nuance in that overall,
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  Speaker 4: every five ten years, somewhere in the caribmane we'll see
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  Speaker 4: a Category five hurricane. Very rarely do you have a
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  Speaker 4: land mask that is this populous in the cross hairs.
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  Speaker 4: Back in twenty nineteen, we saw a Category five Hurricane
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  Speaker 4: Dorian hit the Bahamas and then sort of stall over
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  Speaker 4: the same area. So Category fives do happen from time
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  Speaker 4: to time, but we're noticing that with climate change we
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  Speaker 4: have a tendency for more rapid intensification and sort of
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  Speaker 4: a higher ceiling to storms, especially as water temperatures warm. Interestingly, worldwide,
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  Speaker 4: for whatever reason, they are about ninety tropical cyclones globally
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  Speaker 4: every single year, and that number should roughly stay the
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  Speaker 4: same or actually decrease a little bit thanks to climate change.
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  Speaker 4: But the storms at form more intense and strengthening faster.
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  Speaker 7: Matthew, thank you very much. That was meteorologist Matthew Capucci
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  Speaker 7: in Washington,