Latest / Rich Valdés: This is America! / Media, Mirages, Messaging: Matt Towery (interview only)

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Media, Mirages, Messaging: Matt Towery (interview only) · Rich Valdés: This is America!

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This is America.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: He's got the best head of hair and podcasting.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: This is America with Rich Valdez. All right, America, welcome back.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Rich Valdez keeping you company tonight. And I want to
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: get into this topic because we're tracking a bunch of
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: races all across the country with one of America's top pollsters.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Back when Donald Trump was talking about running for president
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: and people were saying, not him, not the billionaire who
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: designed the New York City skyline. Matt Towery was calling
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: these shots and he was calling them right. Matt Towery
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  Speaker 1: is a pollster. He's an accurate pollster at that. And
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  Speaker 1: he's the author of a book, The Honoring of Ignorance,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: The Seven Mirages Destroying America. Matt Towery, welcome, sir.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Thank you. So happy to be with you, Rich.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: My pleasure. So I want to get into a bunch
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: of things. Obviously, we're talking about the book. You're about
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: to hit this New York Times bestseller list. I can't
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: wait till that happens. I want to see you succeed
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: with the book, but I want to pick your brain
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: because there's a bunch of different things going on with
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: the election. So Let's talk about, I mean, here in
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: New York, right? We had Kathy Hochul, Bruce Blakeman. They
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: were going at it. I shouldn't say they were going
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at it. It seems to me Bruce Blakeman was having
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: his way with Kathy Hochul. She seemed quiet. She seemed defenseless.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: She couldn't fight back. Your thoughts? Well, you know, here's the.
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  Speaker 2: Thing about New York, and I've polled it numerous times.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not an expert about New York like some. I
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: often defer to my friend John McLaughlin and others. But,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: you know... New York, we seem to get closer every
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  Speaker 2: single time to seeing a Republican win. Whether this is
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: going to be the year or not, I don't know.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: The electorate, the makeup of the electorate, is obviously not
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  Speaker 2: one that inures to the benefit of Republicans. Now, people
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: don't realize when you get out and set up Manhattan
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: and you go further upstate and the like, it's certainly Republican.
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  Speaker 1: Very red.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Very red. And someday... People are going to get fed
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: up with all this stuff. And it may be after
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  Speaker 2: the mayor gets through with the city and turns it
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  Speaker 2: into a complete disaster. But I do think the candidates there,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: both the AG candidate, the candidate for governor, are waging
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: strong campaigns. And their opponents are not.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: And they're strong candidates.
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  Speaker 2: They're very strong candidates. So anything can happen. And I'm
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  Speaker 2: seeing basically I've polled every battleground state in the country.
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  Speaker 2: We've not polled New York yet because it's not really
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  Speaker 2: a battleground per se. But if it holds, in every state,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: we're seeing senior voters saying they're more excited about voting
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: than any other group. They are incredibly enthusiastic.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: They don't want to move.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Well, and that's, by the way, Rich, that has not
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: been the case since the pandemic. The Republicans weren't doing
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: well with seniors. Seniors were sort of tepid about voting.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: That is completely reversed. They don't like socialism. They don't
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: like what they're seeing. They don't like what I call
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: the honoring of ignorance, which is the title of my book.
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  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
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  Speaker 2: And they are reacting to it in a way that
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: the pollsters didn't expect. So we're going to have to
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  Speaker 2: reweight some of these polls in the coming days because
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  Speaker 2: if this silver wave continues like I think it's going to,
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  Speaker 2: it's going to change these numbers when we start cross-weighting
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: these polls, including in New York.
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  Speaker 1: You know, we talked about battleground states. And we're going
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: to get into the book, but I'm just really curious
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  Speaker 1: about this stuff because— your colleagues, your counterparts at Calshi,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: they say Abdul El-Sayed has got this hook, line, and sinker.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: They say that James Tallarico is in the lead. So
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: talk to me about Michigan and Texas, because I'm curious.
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  Speaker 2: Well, let me first reflect. What if you were someone
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  Speaker 2: who had They say it's not betting, it's contracts. I
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: don't get near that stuff because I feel like as
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  Speaker 2: a pollster, I shouldn't. Some pollsters do. I think shame
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  Speaker 2: on them. But how would you like to have been
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  Speaker 2: one of those people with big bets on some of
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  Speaker 2: these candidates? When you saw their nomination battle and their
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: primary go down to the wire, where they thought they
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  Speaker 2: were going to win by 20 points and they're winning
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  Speaker 2: by like half a point, how would you feel if
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  Speaker 2: you put half a million bucks on that? I don't
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  Speaker 2: believe these markets know politics. I don't think they're good predictors.
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  Speaker 2: The way I see a lot of these battleground states is,
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  Speaker 2: particularly in Michigan, again, the seniors are voting in big numbers. Well,
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  Speaker 2: the Michigan polls aren't weighted that way. And when you
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  Speaker 2: look at the Michigan polls and you turn, you give
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  Speaker 2: the senior voters, and I'm not talking just 65 and above,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: I'm now going to be 67. I can't believe it. But, um,
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  Speaker 2: even 55 to whatever. That's a big chunk of the vote.
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  Speaker 2: They're voting Republican. So I think these polls are off.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know that they're off so much that the
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  Speaker 2: Democratic candidates lose, but I have an inkling of a
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  Speaker 2: feeling that places like Texas and Michigan are not going
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  Speaker 2: to turn out the way that people betting on or
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  Speaker 2: placing contracts on CalShear or PolyMarket think they're going. I
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  Speaker 2: think they're way to have a 67 percent chance of
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  Speaker 2: the Senate flipping. I think that shows immaturity on the
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  Speaker 2: part of the people who bet. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: And, you know, this brings up a point that you
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  Speaker 1: just made, which is the honoring of ignorance, right? Not
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: only the title of your book, but truly, I think
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: it's probably a fitting title, right? Because when you talk
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: about people who aren't in the political game, taking these
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: types of bets, if you will, on political outcomes, it's
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: a coin toss, right? They might be right, they might
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: be wrong, but there's a lot on the line. For
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: all of us, there's a lot on the line. And
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: part of what's on the line, people are sounding the alarm. Why?
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  Speaker 1: Because taxes are on the line. Thank God President Trump
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: was able to put the big, beautiful bill through and
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  Speaker 1: to do a lot of things prior to this election.
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  Speaker 1: But there's still a lot of the agenda that's yet
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  Speaker 1: to be done. And I'm wondering how that plays out.
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  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the honoring of ignorance. How did
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  Speaker 1: you come up with that phraseology? And what inspired you
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  Speaker 1: to use it for this particular book?
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  Speaker 2: There's a funny story. I started at the University of Georgia,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: but I was a dropout. I dropped out to work
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: with a guy. Pardon me. I dropped out to work
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  Speaker 2: with a guy named Newt Gingrich, of all people. And
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Newt Gingrich.
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  Speaker 1: That's Newt Gingrich calling you right now. Hold on.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Let me tell him. Hey, Newt, can you hold off?
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  Speaker 1: So sorry.
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  Speaker 2: Newt Gingrich and Mack Mattingly, running for the U.S. Senate,
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  Speaker 2: persuaded me to get out. And I was Newt's debate... assistant,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: and I was Mack Mattingly's speechwriter. I went to DC
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: and worked on Capitol Hill for a year and ended
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: up at Cambridge University. Long story made short, when I
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: was a student there.
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  Speaker 1: That's right next to DC.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, right. Well, I had to escape. These guys were
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: driving me crazy. And they're still great friends of mine.
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  Speaker 2: So I went to Cambridge University. I started working on
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  Speaker 2: this book. I got a literary agent in New York.
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  Speaker 2: The agent took me on. They pitched me to big publishers,
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  Speaker 2: same title, different times. They said, well, he's too young
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  Speaker 2: to write this. We love the book. He's too young.
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  Speaker 2: Now I'm wondering if I'm too old to write the
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  Speaker 2: book now, 40 years later. Here's the essence of the
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  Speaker 2: honoring of ignorance. We have allowed straight news to fall apart.
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  Speaker 2: It's now a combination of infotainment. It's a combination of
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  Speaker 2: what people want you to hear. There's censoring left and right.
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  Speaker 2: When it comes to pollsters like myself, you have these
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  Speaker 2: folks like Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight that grade the pollsters.
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  Speaker 2: When Real Clear Politics grades pollsters, it's just based on
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  Speaker 2: your error rate. When it's based on that, Insider Advantage,
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  Speaker 2: my firm, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, Atlas Intel, Emerson College are always
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  Speaker 2: at the top. When you let these people who want
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  Speaker 2: to influence things, or I think they do in my opinion,
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  Speaker 2: they put all kinds of their opinion of your grade
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  Speaker 2: and how much you know. They'll take a polling firm
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  Speaker 2: that's ranked at the top in terms of accuracy, gets
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  Speaker 2: everything right. and rank them 158 in the country and
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  Speaker 2: name all these little pollsters in the middle. That's a
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  Speaker 2: hide the ball sort of game to make sure that
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  Speaker 2: you won't listen to those polls. And then when you
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  Speaker 2: get to the news, they will leave what President Trump
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  Speaker 2: says out. They will omit things. They will totally ignore things.
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  Speaker 2: And then they'll use the fact checkers that they rely
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  Speaker 2: on to say they're factually right and you're wrong. That
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  Speaker 2: whole mirage machine comes together to create incredible, public opinion mirages.
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  Speaker 2: And I'll give you a great example. The economy right now, yes,
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  Speaker 2: gasoline prices are high. They're about the same they were
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  Speaker 2: Joe Biden was running in 2022, or not running, but
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: had his midterm elections going on. Inflation was 8.5% at
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: that time. It's what, 3.7% now? Unemployment was high. Unemployment's
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  Speaker 2: the lowest it's been right now since 1964, okay? You're
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  Speaker 2: not hearing that from the media because they don't want
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  Speaker 2: you to know that. So they create this mirage that
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  Speaker 2: the economy is terrible. Let me ask you this, Rich.
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  Speaker 2: If the economy is so bad, why did we have
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: record numbers of people flying and record numbers of people
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  Speaker 2: driving on Labor Day, our last big holiday? It's because
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: it may be pinching our wallets at the pump, but
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  Speaker 2: it's not keeping people from having high 401ks or spending
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  Speaker 2: or getting ready for Christmas. That's the mirage machine. That's
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  Speaker 2: the honoring of ignorance. And that's what they want us
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  Speaker 2: to do to keep the Democrats in power.
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  Speaker 1: Amigos, we're on with Matt Towery. He is a pollster.
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  Speaker 1: He's an author. And he's an all-around really knowledgeable guy.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to push back on this, what you just said.
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  Speaker 1: And I agree that the media is a spin machine
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  Speaker 1: that will tell you what they want you to hear.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: But I will tell you, in a number of interviews
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I've done in the last, I don't know, I'm going
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: to say 45 days, A lot of business owners in
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: the jewelry business. I have some interest in the jewelry business.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Business owners in the restaurant business. These guys are telling
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: me they're seeing a cashflow crunch that they have not
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: seen in their 25 plus year careers as a restaurateur
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  Speaker 1: or as a jeweler. And I understand that when gas
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: prices go up, people get scared, right? It's almost like
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: shrinkflation in products. People start shrinkflating themselves, right? Say, nah,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: maybe I'm not going to go that far, right? Because
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Labor Day, Gas wasn't four bucks a gallon, right? We
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: had a pretty decent rate during Labor Day. So that
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: was a good thing. But now I think it's getting
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit more aggressive. And I'm wondering, is that
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: fear or maybe the media itself, what is causing people
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: to not go out to restaurants as much and not
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: buy that, you know, that upgraded diamond ring for their wife?
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: That's probably true. And I want to put it in perspective.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: I understand. I understand if they're businesses, they're seeing a
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: shrinkage right now in terms of their revenue or their
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: number of patrons coming. I get that. But I want
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  Speaker 2: to put it in perspective with the Biden era. And
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  Speaker 2: more importantly, with the time period that I look back
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: on when Jimmy Carter was president, I actually knew Jimmy
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Carter pretty well as both a kid and as an adult.
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  Speaker 2: So I'm not putting him down. Those were days when
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  Speaker 2: literally you had to be in line for gas all
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  Speaker 2: day long. The interest rate was 18%. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: I was going to say it doubled whatever Biden did.
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  Speaker 2: So where I think the failure is, to be honest
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  Speaker 2: with you, if it's any failure on the Trump campaign side,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: is that they have not properly explained why we got
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: into Iran. And that is because we knew that they
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: were capable of creating a nuclear weapon fairly quickly. We
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: knew that their ballistic missiles could actually reach Europe. That's
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: been proven because they actually used them and they reached
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: areas of Europe. They could reach our own bases. And
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: we knew that in the end, they wanted that nuclear
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: substance to somehow make its way to the United States.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: And Trump, for whatever reason, decided he had to pull
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: the trigger. Now, had that been John F. Kennedy during
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: the Cuban Missile Crisis, or had that been Barack Obama
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: or Joe Biden, you wouldn't have heard all the trouble
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: you hear about the situation.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Right, right. They'd be heroes.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: They'd be heroes.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Resounding applause.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: But anytime there's a vulnerability, and the vulnerability is the
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: gas pump, let's face it, and that's affecting the rest
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: of the economy. But, you know, years ago, I mean,
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  Speaker 2: I'm pretty old now. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson was running
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: against a guy named Barry Goldwater who was portrayed as
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: being sort of a rogue who would be a cowboy
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: and pull the nuclear weapon trigger at a moment's notice.
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  Speaker 2: So they ran an ad called the Daisy Ad. And
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: in that ad, there's a little girl walking with a daisy.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: She's plucking daisies and counting the daisies, the petals she's
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: taking off the daisies. Suddenly you hear a countdown to
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: a nuclear weapon. You see the weapon explode. You hear
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: Lyndon Johnson come on in his Texas twang and say,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: now is the time for us not to have war,
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: but to love one another. It was a direct hit
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: at Barry Goldwater. It was the most effective political ad
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  Speaker 2: in the history of America. I believe the Trump campaign
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: should run a daisy ad right now with a little
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: girl and show that Iran was ready to have nuclear-grade
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: plutonium again within months, that they have the ability to
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: deliver this by ballistic weapons to Europe, and also that
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: they were willing to take that uranium and export it
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: to the United States in the form of a dirty bomb.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: This is the intelligence that they've not shared with the
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: American people. Don't you think a mother who's upset about
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: the gas pumps might think twice if their child is
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: being saved from that sort of catastrophe? That's the only
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: failure I've seen. You got to explain these situations. That's
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  Speaker 2: part of what I talk about in the honoring of ignorance.
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  Speaker 2: I feel like, and I've been involved with the Republican
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: Party since, you know, forever, obviously. And to me, their
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: biggest failure is they have never come up with a
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: mechanism to advertise on TV in off years or before
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: elections to get the news out, to overcome the news
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: that you and I have to watch every day that
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: just gives us these mirages and causes us to believe
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: the sky is falling down. That's the biggest problem the
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Republicans have. We're going to find out if they can
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: overcome it in this election cycle.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Familia, we're on with Matt Towery. He is the author
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: of The Honoring of Ignorance, The Seven Mirages Destroying America.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: And I like the way you put it, these mirages,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: because that's truly what it is, right? You know, we
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: don't think about them as mirages as probably as often
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: as we should, but it really is a smokescreen. And
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: when it clears up, you're like, oh, shoot. We've got
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Mamdani now. And people are sounding the alarm on that stuff.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: So let us know and let everybody who's listening know
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: where they can get a couple of copies of the book,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: one for themselves and one to give away.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: Well, so here's the thing, folks. When you get together
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: with your family these holidays, everybody's got a family where
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: they're not talking to each other. You got a liberal
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: in there. Give them this book. They can't refute it.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: I guarantee you, everything I researched, there's facts everywhere. Tell
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: me if you don't win the debate after you read
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: this book and give it to them. It's The Honoring
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: of Ignorance. You can find it on Amazon. It's doing
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: really well right now. Go to Amazon, buy some copies
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: and give it. to this family member who doesn't agree,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: but read it first.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: One crazy left-wing uncle.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: Well, it's not just one crazy. I mean, sometimes I'm
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: in a room of folks that feel the other way.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: But instead of debating them anymore, I'm just saying, okay,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: read my book, come back, debate me after that. So
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: The Honoring of Ignorance is on Amazon right now by
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Matt Towery. And I would love for you to tell
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: me how you do with your family or your friends
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: or that neighbor you're having trouble with. Once you just
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: give them the book and say, read this and then
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: let's talk.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Now, Matt Towery, after they get a couple of copies
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: of the book and they want to follow you online
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, on Instagram, on whatever social media you're on,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: let them know how to follow you and where to
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: go to your main website.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: You know, I've never been a big social media person.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: I do everything through our polling company, Insider Advantage, and
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: that's Insider Polling, at Insider Polling on X. And that's
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: about the only way I communicate. I found being on
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: social media became a big problem. Because I would end
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: up in the middle of the night giving my opinion.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: And I do Fox every week and the like. I
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: really didn't want to give everybody my opinion and then
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: have to fight everybody out of my house to get
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: to the studio network. So I just don't do a
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: lot of social media. I just go to that one site.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: You'll see my polls and everything else. And you'll see
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: a link to the book. But what a great pleasure
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: to be with you, Rich.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Matt.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: Same here.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Folks, Matt Towery, Insider Polling. Make sure you get the
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: book again. It's The Honoring of Ignorance, The Seven Mirages
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Destroying America. It's out right now. Make sure you get
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: a copy for yourself and at least one to give away.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: The holidays are coming. Matt Towery, you are a gentleman,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: a scholar, and a patriot. Godspeed to you, sir.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Rich.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: You bet.