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AFC Offseason Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Look,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: we are through the draft, we are through free agency. Suddenly,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: nearly every future's betting market is available, super Bowl winners,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year, season win totals. This week, we're
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: going to start dabbling with our first Impressions. Thursday, We're
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: going to be joined by Danny Parkins, one of my
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: favorite Danny Parkins, honest to god, may be one of
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the most talented sports radio hosts in the country in Chicago.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Might have my dream job. Actually, he's going to come along.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: He's going to talk NFC. Obviously Chicago bend because of
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Kayleb Williams and the draft that they had today. Simon
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: and I are going to do pass or Play for
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: every AFC team. Pastor Play is one of my favorite
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: stories that we do every week during the NFL season,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: where we give a pass or a play on every game.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: So we're borrowing the concept bring it into the show
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: joining me as always. As I mentioned, my co host,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: my companion Micah Padre might be a f F professional
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter Eto. So I'm in Simon. If we
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: were doing a roast right now, I feel like I
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: would get to be the host of your roast. Would
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell get to come? Would producer Tito come? How
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: inspired were you by Tom Brady's roast the other night?
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty inspired, But honestly I'm Matt, Matt and Mitchell.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I love you Chad, You're you are in my number one,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: but Matt Mitchell might be the host. I feel like
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: he's better with the one liners. You're very you are
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: funny if you're written funny where And Matt Mitchell I
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: feel like, in the moment could do some great propavization,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: which we saw with Kevin r. You need it right.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: There's even a lot of awkward moments in our roast,
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: so I would love seeing you trying to transition in
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: a roast. That would be something. I mean, if Beth
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: through Sixscide was to sponsor a roast of Simon, I
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: definitely would allow it.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Who was your favorite? I know we were talking a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: lot about the roast before, Like you know, Nicky Glazer
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: was amazing, Kevin Hart was amazing. The roast has been
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: all over socials for the past forty eight hours. You
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: had a very specific favorite.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely for comedians, as people know the love listeners
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: of the show. I'm obsessed with Kill Tony, which is
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: a comedy show Tony Hinchcliff runs, and you know, I
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: thought he did great. But to me, of the athletes,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Drew Blutsoe, I was blown away how funny and clever
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: he was. And now I know a lot of that's
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: written by comedians, but a lot of it was written
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: by him and was good personal shots. I mean, my
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: favorite thing was him making fun of Brady for having
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: a yellow jeep, which is even that funny, but Brady
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: got upset about it where he like said something during
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: the show like I didn't have a LGP. He goes,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: yes you did, and like don't deny it Tom, which
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: I just thought was great where it's like just total
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: big brother syndrome where it's like, doesn't matter Tom's seven
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: time Super Bowl winner, He's still for some reason, he's
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: still Drew Drew Bleutze's little brother, which is just hilarious
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: to me. So, by the way, loved it.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: This bullshit. I'm so good off prompter, I'm so good
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: with one liners, I'm so good spontaneous in the moment.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: Are better than Mitchell? Though, that's the question.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm better than Matt Mitchell, but I
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: it doesn't have to be about me being bad in
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the moment. Maybe Matt Mitchell's just amazing.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: It's true.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: You know. It's like every time I'm talking to my
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: wife and we're saying we're talking about something, she'll point
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: something out to our kids about something I'm bad at.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I'm like, this isn't about me. Why does it have
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: to be about something I'm bad at? Can't it just
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: be good feedback for our children? Meanwhile, Saturday Kentucky Derby,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: biggest most bet Kentucky Derby of all time and this
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: is the inanity of betting the Kentucky Derby. So my
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: buddy Dan was texting me during the week. Dan is
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: not a sports fan at all, to the point where,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: like we were talking about bet he wanted to bet
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the Derby. He's asked me how to do it, and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: he's like, by the way, what is the Derby? Like
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Saturday morning, I'm like, dude, are you fucking kidding me?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: You're gonna go bet the Derby? You don't even know
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: when the derby is on. You don't know what network
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: it's on. Of course Dan bets missed it, Dan, amongst
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: many other bets.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: Anyways, I don't not shocking that your friend is an
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: egomaniac and would bet on a horse just because his
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: name's in the horse's name.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: He made a lot of he made a lot of bets.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: It happened in one of them.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: That's funny.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: How'd you do in the derby?
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: A total wash? I missed it as well. I bet it,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: but I missed it. It's the worst filling everyone. And
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: when you check the account, hoping you hit and you
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: just see the zeros and you go, God, damn it.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Oh for I had trifectas, I had exact as. I
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: had three or four horses to win. None of them
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: were mystic Dan. Next time, we'll get them next time.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites, podcast is presented by
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
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• 5:48
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• 5:56
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, every episode of The Favorites is live
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: YouTube page. All right, Simon, we want to get through
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: sixteen AFC teams in this podcast. Again, we're not going
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: to go like deep on each division. We're going to
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: save that for when we get closer and we do
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: our previews in August, but we do want to do
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: a passer play on each team, and if there is
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: going to be a play, a little bit of a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: hint of which side we're leaning First up, AFC East
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: New England. Right now, season Wintill is five and a half.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: It's juice to the under, a couple of tasty ones.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: They are thirty five and one to go winless. Drake
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: May fourteen to one to be I mean to be
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: offensive Rookie of the year, twenty two to one, twenty
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: two to one to win the AFC East. I mean,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I will start the bidding. This is a play to
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: me on the under. Nothing else is really going to
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: appeal to me.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Patriots fans, welcome to hell. This is your new normal.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: I hope you enjoyed the roast and all the old
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: memories and all the ex players and reliving all that
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: you had the best run ever of twenty years and
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: now you're going to be irrelevant for twenty years. I mean,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: May could be your savior. The odds say he has
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: less than a thirty percent chance of even being a
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: Pro Bowl quarterback. So it's it's all bad man. Like
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: I know, Patriots fans like to convince themselves that you
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: guys have good players on defense, and your defense was
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: played well last year. You just lost the best defensive
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: mind we've ever seen in football in Belichick. It's it's
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: gonna be rough. Like I wish there was some party.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: May I love this underdog story of this team that
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: no one believes in. But you guys were what the
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: Cardinals were last year. It's just like you might see
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: a game here and there and you know, upset the
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Cowboys and shock the world and maybe win four or five, hey,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: six games. Not crazy, but there's a reason people are
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: just hammering this under You're just a really bad team
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: with bad skill positions on offense in a really tough division.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Like it's crazy how hard your division is now, and
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: it was just never was this way, the whole Grady error.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Now you have three teams with three you know, we
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: could say top twelve quarterbacks when Rogers fully healthy. As
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: much as people want to hate on two one, Rogers like,
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: they are very good throwers and they can win some games.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: So I just don't. I don't see how the Patriots
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: win more than one game in their division. Chat. It's
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: just hard for me to get behind them stealing games
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: where they've lost. Now, Belichick like the Belichick magic. As
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: much as they wanted to hate on them, and they
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: needed to change, They're gonna see what that change feels like,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: so I'm with you on that one chat. This is
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: this is definitely an under. I bet at five and
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: a half. I don't mind betting that five if you're
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: if you're scared off by the juice. But just just
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: a disaster upcoming season for this Patriots team.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: All right, So you're saying you did bet New England.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to take some notes here because I
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: want to make sure we're tracking this appropriately over the
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: course of the show and over the next three months.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: You mentioned Tua Miami really good season last year, right
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: up until the playoffs. Yeah, nine and a half wins,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: juiced to the over, Mike McDaniel twenty five to one
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: to be Coach of the Year, Tua twelve to one,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: most passing touchdowns, Raheem Moster nine to one league to
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: lead the league in rushing touchdowns. Obviously, there's no value
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: on that. It's you know, inflated because of what he
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: did last year. But this is a very interesting team
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: and they were so hot to start the year and
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: then kind of lost their momentum. Tua got a little
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: bit exposed, teams figured out how to play them. Obviously,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs they looked terrible against the Chiefs. One
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: of our favorite bets was to under his total completions
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: in that game, and he barely hit it, but he
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: did hit it because the Chiefs have figured it out
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and gotten so good at pressuring the quarterback. Tricky team.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Nine and a half wins with the with the Jets
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: improved feels high to me.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: It feels high, but it also feels right. This is
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: a boom or bust team, like we we saw them
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: put seventy points up last year. I don't know if
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: they've improved that anyway, but they will improve because it's
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: another year of TUA in this system. So it's like,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: all right, I trust their coach, I trust their offense,
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: I trust them to put up points. I just I
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: don't know. They've made some really questionable moves on defense,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: like they let their best defender go, And I don't know, Chad, Like,
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: you're right, like I probably should take the under year,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: but I'm I'm with you where it's it's may a
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: guy have a huge, really strong opinion on that Patriots
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: team Miami. Here, it's like it's right there, Like when
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: I look at them, I had them at nine to
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: ten wins. It feels right I want to take the
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: under though, just because I do think their defense has regressed.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: But it's like what we just talked about, we have
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: flashes up to it when twas in Miami and it's
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: nice and warm out. He's really good. They're a really
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: good offense when like Tyreek Hill can stretch it out,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: you know, the rum blocking scheme, everything to do is
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: really well. So I'm with you Chet. No real feel
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: for by Lean towards Yonder right now.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: It feels like if we're playing pass or play, this
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: is a pass, which is why I don't want to
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: spend too much time on it. Whereas the Jets still.
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: It's a real good that the best is yet to come.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Jets at nine and a half, Jets with a healthy
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, Jets with a revamped offensive line. Jets treating
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the draft and free agency as if they are going
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: to win now because the window with Rogers is so small.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: A couple different things that I like about the Jets.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: The nine and a half wins Roberts fourteen to one
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: to win Coach of the Year. Roberts Salad got a
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: lot of shit last year, and I know that there
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: are reasons for that, and there was locker room discontent.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, the guy did a masterful coaching job.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: That team stayed tight in so many games. They won
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: more games than they ever should have. The poor guy
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: was left with nothing on the roster. They went all
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: in on Aaron Rodgers. Did not get hit any help
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: in the quarterback room. If Aaron Rodgers went down, I
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: don't know how Slid didn't do a brilliant job. If
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the Jets overachieved this year, they are certainly a play
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: for me at nine and a half wins, little taste
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: of salad at fourteen to one.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give them both shited for the fact they
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: wrote it out as Zach Wilson didn't go get Flaco
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: when Flaco wanted to go there. He's right down the
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: street here and had to field New Jersey like Liter
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: an hour and a half drive from their facility. Excusable.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: And that is why what you just touched on that
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: they didn't draft a quarterback at pick ten like they
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: dropped down. They were happy to let JJ go to
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: the Vikings because they know they're not going to be here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: I really do think both of them thought they were
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: going to be fired last year. If they didn't produce,
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: but because Rogers got hurt, the owner right away was like,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: you know what, you get a freebee. I love betting
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: these type of teams to win divisions, to go over
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: their win totals. This is everyone knows. Everyone in that
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: building knows. This is it like this, This next year
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: to two years is the window for Rogers and then
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: it's over. Rodgers might come back and behalf the man
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: he was. That is better than any quarterback they've had
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: for let's say twenty thirty years. I mean it is.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: It's incredible how bad they are and how how much
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: smarter and gift of an athlete he is and anyone
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: they've ever had in that building. So he might not
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: be the man he was after this injury. Right his
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: movement in the pocket, getting outside the pocket was already
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: lacking heading into this major injury at his age, but
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: we've seen it now like the medical technology has come
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: so far. It might hinder him a little bit, but
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: he is going to be the general on that field,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: and they have so many weapons around itim you saw,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: I mean Bryce Hall, Like we even't talked about the
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: skilled positions they have on that team. It's incredible. So yeah,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: people won't be shocked here. I love they're over. Like
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: last year, I mean you were all aboard fading them
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: because there were just step there was no value there.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: This year, we love it right. I love their win
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: total over. I love them divisionally. To me, they're the
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: team that's taken the biggest steps this offseason to be
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: the best team. Now Rogers coming back, he's just out
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: for blood, like this is when you wanted back Rogers.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: Now in the playoffs, me and Chad will be really
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: happy to fade him in the playoffs, but regular season.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Love this Jets team.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: The idea of Aaron Rodgers and how good he can be.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: You know, we had David Bactieri on the pod last month.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I thought he was amazing, But you had asked him
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: a really smart question about Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: and the way he described Aaron Rodgers in practice, the
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: way he described the way he throws the ball, the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: awe and reverence with which he talked about him just
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: as a player, and the way he says something very
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: specific about the GM and the executives and player development,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: telling their scouts you can't look at future quarterbacks and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: compare them to Aaron Rodgers because what he does on
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: a daily basis in practice is not repeatable. And I
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: think about that when I think about Aaron Rodgers at
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: full health being able to play on this team with
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson, Are you fucking kidding me? Yeah, Like Garrett
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Wilson won them games with Zach Wilson throwing him the ball.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: So if they have Aaron Rodgers is like they say
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: in New York, forget about it. You see I pulled that.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: That wasn't scripted, Simon. I could have used that at
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the roast.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah. No, everyone says you got an edge to you, Chad.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Now we're seeing it.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is desperate for us to talk about the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Rights, the Buffalo Bills and their development lack thereof their
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: place in the pantheon of AFC teams. Last year, we
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: freaking loved the Bills ten and a half wins juice
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: to the under plus one fifty to win the Division
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: twelve to one the Super Bowl, same as Cincinnati, by
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the way, which we liked about six weeks ago at
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: eighteen to one, close to twenty to one. A little
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: down in the Bills. I'm not betting the under necessarily,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: but I'm not as I'm not high in the bills
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: like we were last year.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, after were a small bet on their under, A
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: couple of books opened them at ten and a half
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: e eleve and it was like, all right, I'll throw
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: a small bet on the under. Hear it's only gone
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: down since then because now they've gotten rid of digs
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: and everything. So I'm with jad if you don't want
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: to bet it, like it's scary us how to bet
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: against Josh Allen? Like plus one seventy that's all I'm
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: getting from the missed up playoffs. Come on, bet three
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: six five, at least give me plus two hundred, Like,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: what are we doing here? Is really plus one seventy?
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: That's it? That's very telling. It is telling. That means
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: people have hit that under, so professional money has clearly
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: driven that number down. I mean, it's scary to bet
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: against Josh Allen this position chat, but it feels like
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: that's the bet. Like you expect them a regression this
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: year because they're clearly transitioning into a different type of team,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Like they got rid of Gabe Davis, they got rid
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: of stuff on Diggs. You saw the second half of
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: the year, they became a more run oriented team to
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: try to project Josh Allen, especially in the red zone.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: It worked out for me. I mean, that's what you
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: were talking about. You said we loved them last year.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: We really didn't. But then the second half we're like, hey,
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: a three hundred three to one or four to one
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: for them to win the division? Right now, the path
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: was there. We got really lucky where they ran perfect
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: the end of the season. They did win the division
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: where Miami collapsed. We all expect the Bills that have
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: a season from hell, and usually that's a bad stot
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: to be in, right, That usually doesn't work that way
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: in football. It's never that easy. But how can you
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: sit here and be positive about the Bills? What have
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: they done to make you positive heading into this upcoming season? Right?
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: This is to me the worst thing they've had, at
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: least in the last three years when you look at
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: all the pieces. I mean, it's just all that Josh
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Allen money's kicking in and now you've got thirty million
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: dead cap whatever it is to just have the cancer
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: that Stefan Diggs is off your team, so you expect
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: them to not be that good this year, right, So
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: for us them being the favorite to still win this division,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: that's probably the most shocking thing. I think that's the
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: respect that Josh Allen gets. So you're right, Chat, it's
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: either the under for me or just nothing at this point.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: All right, So in our pass or play game for
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the AFC East, we are definitely on New England and
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the under. We are definitely on the Jets and the over.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: We are noncommittal to a pass right now. In general,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Miami Markets and Buffalo Markets AFC North. Last year, this
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: was the best division in football. Every team went over
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: their season win total. Every team had at least nine wins.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: They proved it weekend and week out that this was
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the most competitive division. Now Pittsburgh, I don't know why
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: bookmakers do this, and the jew shows it. Pittsburgh is
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half wins minus one pint eighty
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to the over man.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Mike Tomlin raw Ross spot. You just gotta bet
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the He's never not had a five hundred season or better,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: So why would this season be any different for the
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: You're right, and it's funny. Last year at this point.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: I remember being out on Pittsburgh and then like a
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: freaking fool, I got sucked in on Kenny Pickett because
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: he threw a couple of deep balls in preseason. I
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: was like, yep, he found it. That was total sham.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Got lucky last year, like hammered, they're over because I
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: was all in on Pittsburgh and God was at a sweat.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: It's still hit somehow, Chad. So you're right, it's like
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: the man has never gone under is never had to
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: lose in season, made an opportunity to get a quality
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: dude at a discount, like what we're talking about the
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: two highest upside best quarterbacks they've had in the building
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: since you know, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, fully good to
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: go Roethlisberger. So nine years about of below subpar level
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: quarterback play for Pittsburgh and Tomlin's gone over his over
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: the win totals, like He's just he's performed really well
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: every time he's a little win total like this. So,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: like I just said, this is juiced up to minus
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: one eighty. Now if you hate the juice, you can wait.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: I think it might touch eight. I think eventually he
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: might get there. But if if you want to play
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: the safer bet and get the seven and a half
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: right now, totally get it. But I'm willing to wait
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: and hopefully it goes up to eight and out to
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: pay minus one to eighty on the juice.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would totally wait on this and just take
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: it at the eight. So are you either to push in
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: or you're just pay him last? Like, yes, of course
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: you're gonna wait, because you got to get to eight
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: to win the bet. Anyways, Tom was just like Tomlin
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: is good for two to three games. He shouldn't win
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: on the road because their defense makes a fluke play
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: every single year. And that's the difference between winning five
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: games and winning eight games, or winning six games and
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: winning nine games. It's the difference between having a top
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: ten pick and being in the middle of the back
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: every year for better or for woras. Tomlin is able
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to do that for his team,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: So kudos to him. Cincinnati Bengals.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: The Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Ten and a half wins juiced over, I don't love that,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: but I did love the Bengals at eighteen to one
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Like I said, now down
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: to twelve to one, Burrow nine to one, MVP six
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: to one to lead the league in touchdown passes, Jamar
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Chase twelve to one to win Offensive Player of the Year.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: There's a million ways to look at this Bengals team. Simon,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: is this one of your favorite plays so far this
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: year in the AFC?
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Definitely love it. I mean you've talked multiple times now
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: about Sin seeing how we feel about him. We luckily
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: got a good number on them for Super Bowl futures
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: and they've just only come down. But yeah, to me,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: they're the best value this division. And the fear is
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: like again, talked to a lot of professionals who love
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: this bet as well. That's why the numbers come down.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: The fear is always going to be Joe Brown's health,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: like we've had multiple season now, the kid getting hurt.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: That's that's a real issue. Like I want to gloss
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: over it, but it's it's a problem. Like we're putting
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: big money on the future market on a person that
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: you know, he got us to the super Bowl an
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: incredible run, but his other seasons he's been banged up
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: and running for his life. And Okay, did they fix
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: the offensive line issues. Is he more protected, Is he's
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: still going to have his issue of holding onto the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: ball too long and taking these unnecessary hits. These are
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: major issues as a better So me and Chad love
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: this team, but we're telling you now if you're this
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: is probably one of the the least safe teams to bet,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Like there's no doubt when we're talking about these like
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: they are not on the same level as the Chiefs.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs feel so much safer, where since he does
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: not feel safe. So you are getting a bad number
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: right now in super Bowl market. Don't touch that. Me
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: and Chat already hit it. Don't touch it. The Bengals,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: we've we've seen this history of Joe Burrow for some
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: reason keeps missing time in the preseason and then they
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: come out on a slow start like this has happened
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: multiple times with them. If you want, you can just
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: wait on that type of future market where their super
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: Bowl futures now, because you've already missed a good number
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: six to one him TV passing leader. I don't know.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: It feels like they're run the ball decent amount and
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: they get in the red zone. So that's another bet
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: that's a little weird where it's that low. But me
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: and you we love Joe Burrow. I think we both
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: said we probably have him as the second guy we
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: trust the most behind the homes in a game. So
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: I don't want cissy fans that feel like wee bashing
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: you guys here. It's just it's the question mark with Joe.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Could Joe stand the field and not take these unnecessary hits?
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: So don't mind it. She just towards the over right.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: I love this team to win this division, love this
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: team towards third ten and a half over It's just
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: they're the most complete best team right now, and this
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: is the last year really feels like they can hold
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: it all together because you know they're gonna lose Tiaggans.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: They're gonna lose a bunch of guys, a couple of
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: guys in the defense next year. So this does feel
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: like this is it for the Cincinnati team.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Joe Burrow question obviously is massive, and I
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: think it's why. It's almost like the bookmakers forgot Joe
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Burrow was on the Bengals when they listed the Bengals
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: at eighteen to one to start the year, because that
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: got hit so quickly. Yeah, I mean we move markets
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: here at the favorites, and I'm glad we got it.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: But look, there's one quarterback who has kept Patrick Mahomes
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: out of the Super Bowl, and it's Joe Burrow. And
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I think what makes it a little bit scary is
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the AFC is just loaded.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: You look at the NFC, you'll bet on anyone, You'll
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: spray the field. We'll talk about this on Thursday. Because
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: nobody's dominant. You look at the AFC and the Bengals
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: could be dominant, dominant, the Ravens could be dominant, dominant,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs could be dominant, and like, we're not even
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: talking about teams that have improved. So it's a it
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: is just a crap shoot. And yet we are going
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: to go all in on the Cincinnati Bengals. It's just
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: how we're going to do it. Baltimore Ravens. I don't
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: like anything about it.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Eleven and a half wins, juice to the under Lamar
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: ten to one MVP. He's not going to repeat everything
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: about the Ravens right now is overinflated.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean no shock or to any Ravens
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: fan or people that just know how we operate here.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: But they're an easy team to fade this year. They've
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: lost so many good veterans from that team from the
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: previous season. They just haven't fish because the Lamar money's
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: kicking in, Like this is the They just paid him
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: a huge contract last year in the offseason, Like that's
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: a real thing. So Derek Henry's signing was cool, like
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: that's seeing him and Lamar together, that's really cool. But
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much better he is than some
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: other guy at his age with all those miles on
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: the tread like he's a great player, but he doesn't
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: really move the needle where you know, Eagles got Saquon
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: that that kind of moved the needle a little bit
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: more with the Eagles, where you know, Derrick Henry's cool,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if it's that big of a deal. So, yeah,
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: easy team to bet for regression. You don't have to
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: do it. But I bet them to miss the playoffs.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's one of my favorite bets, but
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of books out there. Two seventy five,
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: three hundred bet three sixty fives two sixty for them
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: missed the playoffs. I like that value on this team.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: Just would expect them being a hit away on Lamar
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: from their season just falling apart, and it's a guy
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: who you know, he had a couple of plays last
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: year he just got out of it and it's like
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: he's gonna get caught on one of these. And that's
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: definitely a team that you bet for aggression, especially in
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: that division. That they didn't have to face this really
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: dominant Joe Burrow team, even Pittsburgh in a game they
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: lost to them, it was like, that's just the Pittsburgh
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: style playing them. So there's just a couple couple of
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: ways they can get to the under the fact that
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: it's eleven and a half as well, Chad, that's that's
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: such a high wind total massive number, yes in that division.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the under again, you can you can bet
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: the misplayoffs with me, that wouldn't be my biggest bet,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: the under eleven and a half. To me, that's a
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: position you take around this team.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Look, Derek Henry, to me, it's just not that much
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: of an impact because we know when push comes to
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: shove literally, the Ravens might not run the ball, because
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: look at what they did against the Chiefs, right like
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: they just decided.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Hope they learned from it. I mean you hope they
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: learned from But yeah, like even like we haven't talk
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: about they've lost coordinators, they've been stripped like that team
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: we saw with the Eagles last year, losing important coaches,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: it just important players. It's a big deal. It's just
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: not all going to be roses like it was last
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: year for this this Baltimore team.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: The most interesting team in this division. Cleveland Browns.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Dumb players do dumb things. Dumb players do dumb things.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Some of these guys got to get their head out
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: around here. Eight and a half wins, juice to the over,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson eighty to one, most passing touchdowns. Look, this
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: defense is so freaking good, and then they would be terrible,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: just terrible on the road. It was crazy but at
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: home one of the most dominant defenses ever on the
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: road one of the worst defenses ever. We saw that
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: play it play out in the playoffs. What do we
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: do about this team? What do we do about Deshaun
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Watson the same It's it's freaking groundhog day, dude. Like
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: we had the same exact conversation. Everything about this division
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: and the upside in this division and the ROI in
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: this division depends on what you believe about Deshaun Watson.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, They're just a curse. There's just a curse franchise.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's no other way around it. Like the
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: bad luck they have no teams suffer like the Cleveland
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Brown suffer. It's crazy. I mean, the only good, the
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: best game we've ever seen does Shaun Watson play was
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: when he was on an incredible amount of drugs against
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens in that second half where he was
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: down fourteen points. I think he went fifteen for fifteen
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: passing when he had a dislocated or broken collarbone. Yeah,
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: it's I don't know what to think here. I feel
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: like it's Watson is show in his head that it's
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: just been impossible for him to be the player he
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: used to be. Like when he's not clearly, when he's
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: not thinking, when he's whatever, he's incredible. Like we know
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: the talent's there, the talent's always been there. He just
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: has not looked like the Deshaun Watson of old. We
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: just he just hasn't. So there's No, I can't be
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: convinced on this one. Like last year, I was all
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: in on this team and I felt very fortunate to
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: hit their over and all that. But this year, I
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: just don't have the confidence in Deshaun Watson. I don't
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: know what he is, what I'm getting. And as once
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: you want to praise that defense, they have lost some
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: players off that defense. They're still gonna be really dominant,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: but like, is that enough for them to win this division?
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: Is that enough for me? And you want to put
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: our money on it. It's just I can't get behind
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: it when we're so in love with Joe Burrow in
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: that team. So no real play for me on this
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: brownsing We'll pass.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: I believe it's a pass. Pittsburgh, we like it at
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: eight wins. We're gonna wait because the juice is too
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: high at seven and a half, so that will be
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: a play. Cincinnati is a play at ten and a
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: half wins over it is juice to the over. We
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: feel like the value is gone in them going to
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: the winning the Super Bowl. That was at eighteen to one,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Now it's twelve to one. I would say we're making
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: a play on Baltimore under eleven and a half wins
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: to me, that feels like a definitive play. Yeah, okay,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: and then the Browns were to pass right now? All right, Oh,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: so far, so good. We're halfway through the AFC simon,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: United States?
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 31:14
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• 31:16
  Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I
• 31:19
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• 31:22
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• 31:25
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• 31:28
  Speaker 1: here in from my house here in Connecticut. Guess what
• 31:33
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• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Last minute tickets lowes price guarant to you AFC West
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: next year. The Denver Broncos. They just burned us like
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: we were all in on Sean Payton. We were all
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: in on Russell Wilson. We were all in on the
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: over Yeah, we nearly got there, like, came so close
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: to getting there until Sean Payton decided I got to
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: get out of the Russell Wilson business and just bench
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: him at the end of the year. Now, what is
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: being described as the most arrogant move in the draft,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: taking bo Nix, who most people had a second round
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: grade on and putting him at number twelve overall, That's
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: what Sean Payton did, basically putting tying his future to
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: bow Nick's success season win told right now five and
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: a half, five to one to make the playoffs, Sean
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Payton twenty eight to one to win Coach of the Year.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Someone's got to be bad in this division.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're an easy pick, just about the under don't
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: overthink it. I mean they're bad. And like you say, said,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: total total eagle move. Taking bone Knicks at that pick.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: You know, he's either going to look like a genius
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: or he's just slowly, slowly getting rid of all of
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: his good karm. He built the words career Drew Brees,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: and he's going from being one of the best minds
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: of football to kind of turn into a joke. So yeah,
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: just a year of rebuilding for Denver. Like you're expecting
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: to be bad this year. I have a ton of
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: dead money on the cap. It's just he'll be bad
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: in this division. I'm with Chad. I have him as
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: the fourth worst team. So, like like the ender of
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: five and a half.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: It's such a bummer because I love Sean Pitton. I
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: love him as a coach. I love the stories I've
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: heard about him. He seems like an incredible hang he.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I think he's obviously a brilliant football coach. I want
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: this to work for him so badly. I want bone
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Nicks to be great. I want him to prove everybody wrong.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: I'd almost bet this and then rooted against it, just
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: because I'm such a huge Sean Payton fan. But golly gee,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: this team is in some serious roster turmoil right now.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it makes people feel better. I have them at
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: four and a half win, so like this is this
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: is definitely a bigger edge I have is a full
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: full game, So five and a half is feels like
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: it's pretty pretty heavy.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: That's good, intel, Yeah, that's how much of an edge
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: did you have? On the other totals we've bet with
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the other plays we've made New England, was it five
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: and a half? What was your edge there?
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Like that's another one. Like again, it's rare to
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: get over a game or half a game of an edge,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: you know, where there's always gonna be that those rare unicorns,
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: which again we'll bring up and talk about, but like
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: that Ram six and a half last year, I had
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: them at eight and a half, like two games. It's
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: rare you get that big of an edge because it
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: is so heavily opinion based, like betting these kind of markets, right,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Like you know, the books can try to build off
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: last season, but it really is that they put the
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: numbers out and they let the market dictate where they're
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: going to move these numbers. So yeah, rare do you
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: get over a game of value just because the professionals
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: are so sharp they don't need that much meat on
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: the bone.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: Sure, But like I'm assuming every game that we've talked about,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: you've got a half a game to a game in right.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, now, if I give it a picture, it's
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: right now. Whenever I'm giving out it's a game edge.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, God, yeah, we're.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Better necessarily need I need a big edge to bet that.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: We bet New England under five and a half. You
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: got him at four and a half, four and a half, Jets,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: you got him at ten and a half. We liked
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: him at nine and a half. Cincinnati ten and a half.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: I guess you like him at eleven and.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: A half and actually have them at you could literally
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: they're almost at twelve. It was like eleven seven to five,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: so oh interesting, Yeah about being twelve.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: Baltimore under eleven and a half, you probably have them
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: at ten and a half, and Denver you've got at
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: four and a half. So Can't City.
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: They are a mature, physically powerful squad with a special
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: merely trying to avoid mistakes.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Can't City eleven and a half wins? Of course we
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: want to bet the under, and of course we're not
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: going to because it's Patrick Mahomes and we just don't know.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: And they finally got a receiver and Xavier Worthy, who
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: everyone thinks can be that field stretcher with good hands
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: that they were missing last year, and they still won
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: the freaking Super Bowl.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Mahomes the whole all of it's crazy.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Like as much as like even we were talking about Brain,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking about he's the goat. He never had had
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: to deal with the kind of shit that Mahomes deals
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: with on the offseason, like his brother's getting arrested for assault,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: his dad's getting DUIs, and this dude's performing the highest
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: level you can be in the same week in the
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl. It's he's just there's nothing that can shake
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: this dude. Like that season last year was a season
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: from hell and they flipped their season went on this
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: in sand and run and the hardest mathematically you look
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: through the data, it's the hardest schedule hardsh run ever
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: to a Super Bowl. To win a Super Bowl like
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: that was arguably the greatest run we've ever seen from
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: how tough of a road they had to go through
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: right on the road all those games they won. So yeah,
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: if you like the Chiefs over eleven and a half,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: you can bet it. It's to be juiced. What a
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: lot of people like to do, a lot of pros
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: like to do is take them where, Like say, I
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: love the Eagles this year to win the division. It's
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: one of my favorite bets. You just pair them with
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs to win the division like that they might
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: be minus two to twenty five minus two thirty at
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: most books right now to win this division. I mean,
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: we're gonna get into it. But like, the only team
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: you have any type of fear at all with are
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: the Chargers, and that is so small. The fear is
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: so small because they're in a rebuilding mode, like they're not.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: This ain't going to be a quick turnaround, right Chargers.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: The next year is a real turnaround here. But if
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: Benny team's gonna shock the world, it would be them,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: just because we have the type of respect for Harball
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: and obviously Herbert at the quarterback position. So the Chiefs,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: I got them at minus three fifty minus four hundred,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: Like I love them for their division. So if you're
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: looking for my favorite we've had division wise, it's the Chiefs.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: Like they're far above the best team, the most complete
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: team in this division. The fact that it's still under
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: two fifty at most books. I love that value. So
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: if you want to parlay them with another team to
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: cut down that juice, I get it, but got no
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: issue betting this one straight. I just I love this
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Chiefs to win this division.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Well, look, it's amazing how quickly things change. Right two
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: seasons ago, when the Chargers had Herbert and had gone
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: to the playoffs and Broncos had just signed Russell Wilson,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: and the Raiders were being the Raiders who.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, when got DeVante Adams the parent with Derek Car.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: They had DeVante Adams and Derek Carr. We were talking
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: about the AFC West is the best division in football.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: We were talking about the Chiefs as being a team
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: that had reached its peak, and all they've done since
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: then has went to straight Super Bowls, and the rest
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: of the division has fallen off such a freaking cliff
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: that the Broncos are under five and a half. The
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Raiders their season to win total is six and a half.
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: The autumn win is a Raider pillaging.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Just for fun.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: I would take the Raiders under six and a half
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: right now, and it's juice to the over.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: So I would say, you're I know a lot of
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: pros who love the over.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: Really, why, Yeah, that's.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: A pros Joe's game. I'm with you, like I wanted
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: to take under, and the professionals love this Raiders to
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: the to the over. They got a lot of guys
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: I talked to have them at eight wins, which I
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: was shocked, so I have him at six. So I
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: had him half a game to the under. So I
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: would tell listeners of other show just stay away, like
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: there's just something off about that long because usually in
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: the pros like a team like this and I'm like, well,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: you're just Vegas bias. It's like, no, it's a lot
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: of the guys I know they're up here in the Northeast.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: That are the ones that are hitting it so pretty interesting.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: They love Antonio Pierce. I don't know. Maybe they believe
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: in the Minshew magic. I just I've seen enough of
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: I just can't get behind it. I just can't do it.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: So I'll stay away from that one. But I'm with you,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: jim My gut instinct was like pound this team under,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: but I'm going to pass on it.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the Raiders did something that no other team
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: since the Raiders and before them, no other team since
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: the Raiders had done draft quarterback or draft tight ends
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: back to.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Back in the draft.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: So they signed Christian Wilkins. That's great. So they got
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: Max Crosby and Christian Wilkins on the defensive line. Gardner
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Minshew was great last year because Shane Steiken made him great.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah right, Like that was a testament in so many
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: different ways as a football fan. You saw how brilliant
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Shane Steiken was. You saw it, and how Jalen Hurts struggled.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: You saw it and how the Eagles struggled. You saw
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: it on how Anthony Richardson was playing in control with
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: accuracy and athleticism before he was injured. And then you
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: saw it in the way Gardner Minshew was un Gardner
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: Minshew like in how often he would throw the ball away.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: He was great. He had a great year and it
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: got him a really nice year with the Raiders. Antonio
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Pierce is not the offensive genius and the strategic genius
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: for the offensive side of the ball that Shane Stykeen is.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: He's great motivationally, he's great Tom type.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: He just finds me of Tomlin.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: What what? Yeah, like he's going to win. By the way,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: that could be why the pros like the Raiders. There
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: could be two games, right and and look, the AFC
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: West is not very good, so maybe you steal a
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: game from the Chargers, maybe you steal two games from
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: the Broncos.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: And play the Chiefs hard.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Right, So all of a sudden, you're three games towards
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: needing to win seven, and you got a lot of
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: opportunities now with with there being more games to play.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: So I guess I could see the math, but I
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: don't like it. Pass pass La Chargers eight and a
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: half wins juiced to the over Harbaugh five point fifty
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: to be Coach of the Year. I believe that is
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: the shortest odds minus one of five to make the playoffs.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, Harba's magic hoop, Like his teams don't
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: take the year to regroup, Like his team's just played
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: well the exact year that he gets there. They just
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: do yeah.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: And he's he's stepping into like a team that felt
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: like they haven't had a real coach since Marty Schottenhei,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Like it's been a long time since the Chargers have
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: had a good, yeah coach. It's bad, Like I want
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: to believe it, but it's another one I'm just gonna
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: pass for right now. But I just I'm not trying
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: to get sucked into the hype because this this will
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: be by far the best coaching Herbert's ever had in
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: his life. Like this man he is a great coach.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: He is a psychopath. He is living in an RV
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: outside the stadium right now, and God bless his poor wife.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: She knew what she signed up for when she married
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: the man. But man, like, I can't imagine being married
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: to this guy living next to the stadium in an
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: R and B. He's just one of the kinds. I
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: truly love him, so yes, the human side of me
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: wants to slam this over. I love everything about it.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: The pro of me is like this team they're they're
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: just like the Raiders, Like they're equally as terrible just
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: because they have Herbert. I want to give them that benefit.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: But it's like the rest of their team is so
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: bad right now, Like they have so many aging veterans
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: that they've gotten rid of and moved on from. And
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: you know, going from Keenan Allen to whatever they're going
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: to now is going to shock Herbert like he's never
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: been shocked before. Like the safety valve that Keenan Allen
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: was on third downs, there's nothing like it, Like there's
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: you know, five six other guys in the NFL that
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: can do what keen Allen does on given routes, Like
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: there's just no one better setting people up and getting open.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: So Chad's right, like, I want to get I want
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: to get on this one. I'm gonna pass for right now.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: But don't be shocked in August fun talk about taking
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: this team on there just there's just there's just too
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: much love for this team. This this overfeels too high
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: for a team that's just in a rebuild mode.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Do' not living in an RV as someone who's spent
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: five straight spring breaks traveling in an RV with his family,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: caravanning with another family in an RV, no joke. The
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: greatest family vacation memories I've ever had.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: I can smell it. I don't even know what it
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: smells like. Smells like ballooney kind of, I don't know.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's freaking terrible.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: I can imagine it's it's so awful.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Every time we walk into this RV, my wife look
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: at me, she goes, what are we fucking doing? Every
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: single and yet we went for it every single time
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: we did it. We freaking loved it great. It was
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: so funny, the greatest memories. There's nothing better than that.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: For like, we'd all get T shirts. The Milman Rosenberg
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: our v family trip. Then we'd have to date and
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: we'd all walk into Walmart with the T shirts on
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: and we're pushing our carts and then we are loading
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: up the RVs and we are raring to go.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: Delete this man, Mitchell, please.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: It is honestly the best vacation I ever had. AFC South,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: the division no one cares about ever. Tennessee Titans, a
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: team that is so on the decline. I couldn't tell
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: you anything good they've done this offseason. Six and a
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: half wins, Expectations so low it's juice to the under
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: thirty five to one to go winless. Oh, poor Will Levis.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I won't believe this, but I actually love Tennessee. They're
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: a super sleeper. If they're just a classic team of
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: if this kid Will Levis can all of a sudden
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: become a good quarterback, they could easily shock the world
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: and win this division and be a really good team.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: That's just how this division works, where it's like they're
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: all kind of good and they all kind of suck
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: at the same time. And now that you know CJ's
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: come in, he might be. But we thought trebl Larns
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: was going to be which is the big dog who's
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: going to run this division now for ten fifteen years.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: But football hasn't usually worked that way, Like CJ could
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: be that dude. He takes a huge step or now
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: the book's out on him and he is an insane
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: year of a regression And that's the way I kind
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: of look at it. So starting off with Tennessee, I'm
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: not going to do anything here, people, we'll pass on
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: this for right now. But don't be betting this under
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: don't be looking at this team as just this awful team,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Like this is a team that if the beat Riders
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: are giving it a ton of love. And Will Levis
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: has rid through these TV coaches this offseason. It works
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: on his therm mechanics and kind of learns their offense more.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: They did make a big move, kind of touched over it.
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: They brought in Cleveland's offensive line coach, which does sound
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: like that big of a deal. No, you're right, he's
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: one of the best lines on football, Like, and they've
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: drafted offensive line, like they've done a bunch of stuff
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: where it's like, okay, they're taking steps here to improve.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: But yeah, just as we say here right now, right
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: it's I don't want to tell people to bet this
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: over six and a half because I do need to
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: see improvement before I put any type of money on
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: this Tennessee team.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Look, it's a lot of faith in Will Levis, It's
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of faith in Brian and Brian Callahan, who's
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: the new head coach. He was the coordinator in Cincy.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: He didn't call plays in Sincy. Zach Taylor called the plays,
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: but the key which you just mentioned, Bill Callahan, Brian
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Callahan Callahan, Yes, Brian Callahan's father is considered the greatest
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: offensive line coach in NFL history. He's known as the
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: guy who took over the Raiders from John Gruden and
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: took them to the Super Bowl where they lost with
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: which Cannon as the quarterback to John Gruden in the Bucks.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: But he has made a career the past twenty years
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: of being a brilliant offensive line coach who like teams
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: get him and they are immediately better. So you're right,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: I forgot about that. I don't think I'm ready to
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: buy in because he got a new head coach and
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a quarterback who really just his best play was chucked.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: And but there is optimism for the offensive line I
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: think they.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Know they fit the bill of a team that could
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: be twelve wins and win this division, or two wins
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: and Will Lovis is done. They're already drafting a new
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: quarterback next year.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: You know how I feel about infrastructure. I like to
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: bill from the inside out. I'm a huge fan of
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: building from the offensive line. Jacksonville a team that so
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: disappointed us last year. Trevor Lawrence so disappointed us. We
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: thought he was ready, We thought he was taking that
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: next step forward. We thought he had found the touch
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: in the red zone. Turns out he kind of didn't
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: do anything. He took a step back, didn't have any
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: touch in the red zone. Doug Peterson and him did
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: not find the magic that we thought would be there.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: With great coach, offensive great talent, I think they've been
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: lapped in the division, certainly by Houston. Eight and a
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: half wins is the total? Give me your take care.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I there's some pros. You love it because they
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: think they're buying a loan Trevor Lawrence, who was injured
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: the second half of the season, and that's just why
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: this team kind of fell apart. But I don't know.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: I'm with chat. I'm a little burned by this team
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: just because it's it's all it was all there and
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: they did have a total meltdown, and it is it
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: is Trevor Lawrence's fault. Like at the end of the day,
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: it does fall on this kid and he has not
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: lived up to expectations yet. And you know, you should
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: keep on improving and wouldn't be shocked if they go
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: over this wintil eight and a half and they do
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: win this division. But Jeah's right, I got no interest
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: in this team right now. I'm gonna pass on everything.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: I just I'm not into them. But they do feel
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: their price correctly where it's like, are they the first
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: third best team or who are they in this division?
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: No one really knows, because I don't know what the
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: hell they are. But yeah, eight and a half by
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: the books, that's a good number for them to put
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: out there, just because that's what they are. They're a
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: five hundred team right now in a really tough division.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Kind of a classic AFC South team, non ascript, no
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: players anyone cares about, no passion for anything that they're doing,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: no real interest in them from the national media. They
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: are the epitome of an a C South team. Meanwhile,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: I do think the Indianapolis Colts are primed. Yep, like
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Shane Steichen fourteen to one Coach of the Year, gimme
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: eight and a half wins, juiced to the under, gimme
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: the over like they were they were on the cusp
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson. Kudos to you, Flowers for Simon. You were
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: all over Richardson. He was the real deal before he
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: got injured. And that team, to me, when it comes
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: to the AFC South, they're thet the competition to the Texans,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: not anybody else.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: It's scary that me and Chat are so locked in
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: step here. This could be my dumbest bet then because
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: I'm with Chat, I like this one just feels so easy.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: I love it. They to me have the best coach
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: right now in the division with a ton of upside.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Like I just I love this team in so many
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: different ways. And you know, I could be convinced on
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: Houston obviously for a multiple, multiple tude of reasons, but
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: there's just no value there where the Colts team feel
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: like the value team because they're kind of, you know,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: not the third team in this division, but it feels
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: that way a little bit. It feels like most people
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: have the Jaguars above them just because Anthony Richardson is
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: so unproven right now, which is fair. But yeah, if
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: we're going long shots, that are a fun team that
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: I really like. Cults are one of my favorite teams.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Like they're over winning. Eight and a half is their
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: win total. I'm gonna bet that no child will bet that.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: You want to bet them to win the division right now?
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Plus three twenty at bet three sixty five, why not?
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Like we just I like this team. I do think
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: Andrew Richardson's is gonna get so much better just from
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: last year to this year, just because he's going to
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: be working on his arm and throwing this whole offseason.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: Like I've already read stuff about him working and throwing
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: and learning the offense and everything like that. So yeah,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: a team that me and Chad will not be shocked
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: if we are just burned severely by this team by
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: the time we get to January. But there's just so
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: much to love here. There's so much untapped potential on
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: this team with high upside. Richardson another guy the professionals love.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Like I talked to a bunch of pros they slammed
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: him at sixty to one, fifty to one to be MVP.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: I've seen some books now showing him at forty one
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: thirty to one to be MVP Anthony Richardson. That's pretty
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: crazy to think his numbers moved that much. So definitely
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: a team that professionals love.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Sam and I find when you and I are together,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: things go, well, yeah, if.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: It's not the Bears, I'm just getting the Bears vibe
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: here where it's like we're loving this young team with
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: good upside. It's just keep I keep having that fear
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: where it's like you can't. I can't tell you how
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: many people Chad I talked to before the season. We're
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: diehard Green Bay fans that were like, you're making a
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: huge mistake. Don't let Chad suck you in. Green Bay
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: is the team you want to back, Like again Detroit,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: we all knew they were really good, but they were like,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: the Bears are the sleepers. Green Bay's the sleepers. And
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: I was like, no, you don't get it. Justin Field
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: is gone the difference, but egg on my face he
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: went over too against Green Bay and same old he's
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: gone now, so again we can move on. But that's
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: my fear here with the Colts, where it's like I
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: don't want to be doing another Barriscenaria here. I'm just
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: we're just so in love with this quarterback, this incredible
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: athlete at the quarterback position.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: Once again, I think the key difference here is we
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: love the coach. I love the coach more than I
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: love the quarterback. I just think the guy is brilliant.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: And we saw so much evidence of that last year.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Houston nine and a half wins minus one, fifty to
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: the over. Everything here is inflated. Strout ten to one, MVP,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: super Bowl sixteen to one, Will Anderson thirty to one
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: DPOI I'm passing on everything to do with the Texans
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the be we're supposed to make is the under,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: but what's the rush? People should keep hitting this, you know,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: I love the digs moves. Like the one year rental
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: of Stefan Diggs on this team. I love it. Like
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: the guy might be a psychopath and a bum for
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: all we know, but on field, when he's producing, he's
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: one of the best receivers in football. Like, the guy
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: is incredible. He just totally fell off the map last year.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: And then you know, cost the Bills dearly in the playoffs.
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, he is a huge ego maniac. He doesn't
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: want that to be his legacy. Like this guy's out
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: for blood as well. That's why they kind of gave
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: him a one year deal, like they bought the years
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: out of his contract to be like not approve it year.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: But it kind of is for Digs. So for Houston's
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: GMS and everything they've done this offseason, they're one of
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: my favorite teams, like what they've done this offseason. But
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Chad's so right, like, as a pro, this is I'm
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: supposed to go the other way in this one, and
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: I am. I'll be first to admit it. I am
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: scared to bet it, just because I do have that
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: much respect for cg and what he's put on tape
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: and everything I've done. The organization wise this offseason has
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: been amazing. Like I just I love the moves Houston's made,
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: so it pains me. I really want to hit this over.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: But in this division, in the AFC, this just feels
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: like it's just too much, like the value is just
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: not there anymore. So I'm with Chad here. I want
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: to take the under butt. I'm happy to wait, let
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: this get to ten hopefully and take the under one
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: when it does.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to get to ten. Like there's it's
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: there's too much excitement, and we.
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: See because pros do. Pros have been heading this under
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: so well, because the public does love the over.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: But when we get into when we get into the
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: preseason and there's more activity and it's not just pros
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: playing these this thing is going to skyrocket because people
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: are only thinking about CJ. Shroud, Stefan Diggs, Will Anderson
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Like that's that's what people are going to look forward to.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: That's when we can hit the ten. Uh, no doubt
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: about it. I believe that fascinating team. But the Colds,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: to me, that's where the value lies right now in
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: the AOC South. Okay, here's our place, So everything everything
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: else is a pass for right now. Again, we're going
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: to move deeper into the off season. We will do
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: the division by division previews beginning in August. We also
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: are going to have Warren Sharp on the podcast at
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: the end of the month after we have the schedule release.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: One of our favorite things is like Warren Sharp analyzing
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: the value of rest in the schedule, and we're going
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: to know more about sort of the road these teams
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: face once we get the schedule release, and Warren is
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: going to come out and talk about that. Our plays
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: right now, New England under five and a half, New
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: York Jets over nine and a half. These are season
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: win totals. The Cincinnati Bengals over ten and a half.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Don't forget Simon and I already bet the Bengals eighteen
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl. There are now
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: about twelve to one. We like Baltimore under eleven and
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: a half wins. We like the Denver Broncos under five
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: and a half wins. We like Case to win the division.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: And then we like a lot of stuff about Indy.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: We like eight and a half over. I would take
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: Shane Stike and four team to one coach of the year.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: We would take Indy a plus three twenty to win
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: the division. We're all over.
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: The Colts love it.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: Speaking of the Colts got roasted by Tom Brady. Did
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: you hear that line? Colts are just Broncos that don't oh?
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: Okay?
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
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• 58:01
  Speaker 1: or I. We'll be back with our next episode on
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page eleven am, covering
• 58:10
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• 58:13
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