Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets | NFL Week 5
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
- 0:14Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow d Jens, the
- 0:17Speaker 1: returning Kendrim Middleton, and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation.
- 0:21Speaker 1: Stuckey is with us as well for his premium picks.
- 0:25Speaker 1: On today's show, we will submit our official plays for
- 0:29Speaker 1: Week five in the NFL. We've got our stat of
- 0:32Speaker 1: the week, a newly named parlay, some public darlings that
- 0:36Speaker 1: you need to be aware of, like and subscribe wherever
- 0:39Speaker 1: it is that you are tuned in. The shirt bet
- 0:43Speaker 1: has been officially paid off. I don't know if you
- 0:46Speaker 1: can see this, guys, I'm gonna tilt the camera down here.
- 0:49Speaker 1: It is everybody. I'll stand up for this. It says
- 0:51Speaker 1: the cutest pumpkin in the patch.
- 0:54Speaker 2: That's incredible.
- 0:55Speaker 3: I hope you wear that in public today.
- 0:57Speaker 1: I think a pub like flogging on the podcast is
- 1:02Speaker 1: probably enough.
- 1:03Speaker 2: But I don't know.
- 1:05Speaker 1: Thursday nights ago when the Dolphins covered the spread against
- 1:09Speaker 1: the Bills. So there you go, Stucky, is this you
- 1:13Speaker 1: picked out?
- 1:14Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fine. Then you have to bet the Falcons
- 1:17Speaker 4: money line against the Bills. And we have to come
- 1:21Speaker 4: up with a had to head bet for Brown's Vikings.
- 1:25Speaker 4: Since you like Minnesota and Cleveland.
- 1:28Speaker 3: I have a secret. I have a tie break for this.
- 1:31Speaker 3: What's that I'm on the Vikings?
- 1:34Speaker 4: Perfect?
- 1:37Speaker 2: We should have to make Stucky a poem?
- 1:39Speaker 1: Are we both? It should? We should have to say
- 1:42Speaker 1: it with a British accent. Since the games in London.
- 1:47Speaker 4: Trying to come up with something that's Cleveland related.
- 1:51Speaker 2: What's Minnesota famous for? I don't even know schools.
- 1:55Speaker 4: They're mall.
- 1:57Speaker 1: They do have a killer mall.
- 1:59Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm all the that'm all is a good one.
- 2:03Speaker 3: Like famous food, these.
- 2:05Speaker 4: Two famous burger places.
- 2:08Speaker 2: I'm gonna say Skyline Chili is not Minnesota.
- 2:10Speaker 1: A producer says that it's in London. We should eat
- 2:12Speaker 1: beans and toast on the pod. Is that something you
- 2:15Speaker 1: do over there that?
- 2:16Speaker 3: Yeah, they do, yes, and it's discussed, but it's it's
- 2:18Speaker 3: like a very specific type of beans that they don't
- 2:20Speaker 3: sell here.
- 2:21Speaker 2: You have to do like the Bush's baked beans thing.
- 2:23Speaker 3: Here, but like there's coming like a blue cane and
- 2:26Speaker 3: I think they're hinds.
- 2:27Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be down to do that. Yeah, hell yeah,
- 2:29Speaker 2: why not?
- 2:30Speaker 1: All right? That sounds easier than writing a pubble.
- 2:33Speaker 2: I might gag, but I'm down.
- 2:36Speaker 1: Uh all right, So we got that settled. I'm glad
- 2:39Speaker 1: that you're on my side. I am due for a
- 2:41Speaker 1: win in these head to head bets because Stuckey has
- 2:44Speaker 1: been has been running the show so far when it
- 2:46Speaker 1: comes to that. And here I am cute at pumpkin
- 2:49Speaker 1: in the patch today, Kendra. How's the trip to the
- 2:52Speaker 1: West Coast?
- 2:53Speaker 3: It was so good only because they won, Like, I
- 2:56Speaker 3: had a great time. I ate a lot of good food.
- 2:57Speaker 3: But if they lost and I went all that, I
- 3:00Speaker 3: would have been really upset. But congrats on congrats on
- 3:02Speaker 3: the parlay. I listened to the show. It would hit
- 3:06Speaker 3: last week, of course it yeah, it's true.
- 3:10Speaker 2: Yeah, but no, the game was really good.
- 3:12Speaker 3: I feel better about the Jaguars than I did Rock
- 3:14Speaker 3: Perty shouldn't have played that game.
- 3:16Speaker 2: Their fans are still mean as hell, but it was good.
- 3:19Speaker 1: What was your favorite interaction with a forty nine Ers fan?
- 3:22Speaker 2: So I posted it on Twitter.
- 3:23Speaker 3: I was talking about this before we got on, but
- 3:25Speaker 3: I posted a video. I covered his face because I'm
- 3:27Speaker 3: nice and I don't want to ruin anybody's life. But
- 3:29Speaker 3: there was this kid sitting in front of us, who
- 3:32Speaker 3: refused to believe that I knew anything about football at all,
- 3:36Speaker 3: was trying to mansplain the game to me, was asking
- 3:38Speaker 3: me to name players. Just an absolute loser was drinking
- 3:42Speaker 3: hard ciders the whole game and was so hammered he
- 3:44Speaker 3: could like barely walk down the row. And at the
- 3:47Speaker 3: end of the game, I was like just cheering. I
- 3:49Speaker 3: had the whole thing on video. I was just cheering,
- 3:51Speaker 3: and he was like, Rock Party has more playoff appearances
- 3:55Speaker 3: than Trevor Lawrence and at the end of this season
- 3:57Speaker 3: he still will. And I was like, okay, so what
- 4:00Speaker 3: hold this out, loser, And then his friend walked past
- 4:02Speaker 3: us and he goes, I saw you on your phone
- 4:04Speaker 3: before they scored a touchdown. I was like, okay, yeah,
- 4:06Speaker 3: I'm live tweeting the game. Is that supposed to be
- 4:08Speaker 3: a burn? Like, go drink your cider and go home,
- 4:11Speaker 3: you losers.
- 4:12Speaker 1: Unbelievable. This is why people are getting in fights at
- 4:15Speaker 1: San Francisco, this sort of behavior.
- 4:17Speaker 3: There was a huge fight behind us between like three
- 4:20Speaker 3: it was like three forty nine Ers fans and one
- 4:22Speaker 3: Jag fan. And he was just cheering because obviously it
- 4:25Speaker 3: was a good game. I think he said something that
- 4:26Speaker 3: he probably should love, and this one Karen called security
- 4:30Speaker 3: and got him kicked out, and as he was getting
- 4:32Speaker 3: kicked out, he's trying to fight with three other guys.
- 4:34Speaker 2: It was pretty it was pretty awesome.
- 4:36Speaker 1: Wow, well, glad that you got the win. I admitted
- 4:39Speaker 1: this on the Tuesday episode. This is the first of
- 4:41Speaker 1: our three leg parlays that I didn't actually place because
- 4:45Speaker 1: I was on the forty nine ers and I didn't
- 4:47Speaker 1: want to play both sides, and so unfortunately I didn't
- 4:50Speaker 1: profit off of it. But hopefully all of you did
- 4:53Speaker 1: that you lost. I mean, it's really been quite an
- 4:57Speaker 1: epic run of defeats and it's early in season. You know,
- 5:00Speaker 1: I'll take my lumps now, let you guys have your fun,
- 5:03Speaker 1: and then when it really matters, I'll pick it back up.
- 5:06Speaker 4: But you're the gauge for me. I know that. Like, Okay,
- 5:08Speaker 4: if you if you like, if you like this other
- 5:10Speaker 4: side I hate, if you like the same side, I
- 5:13Speaker 4: better look into it.
- 5:14Speaker 1: That was means, that was that was That was probably
- 5:18Speaker 1: the most hurtful thing that you've ever said to me
- 5:20Speaker 1: in our short time.
- 5:21Speaker 4: I'm just being truthful. By the way you mentioned food
- 5:24Speaker 4: and Minnesota is that they're they're known for that. They
- 5:26Speaker 4: have a couple places. They're known for their juicy bluesy.
- 5:29Speaker 4: It's like a Burger and Cleveland. I would say, like corn.
- 5:33Speaker 2: Beef sandwiches, Skyline Chili.
- 5:36Speaker 4: That's Sincy Cincinnati, which it's just.
- 5:39Speaker 2: It's like chocolate chili, right.
- 5:41Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I'm a time purists. I can't like chili
- 5:45Speaker 4: on spaghetti is sacrilegious. But speaking of food, my question
- 5:49Speaker 4: of the week is if you could only you were
- 5:52Speaker 4: forced to eat only one thing for the rest of
- 5:56Speaker 4: your life, and you could, you would You would never
- 5:58Speaker 4: get sick of it. It gave you all the new
- 6:00Speaker 4: you were like, it was completely healthy. No matter what
- 6:03Speaker 4: you chose, what would you pick?
- 6:05Speaker 2: Hey, this is a dumb question.
- 6:09Speaker 1: Let me ask you a personal question kind.
- 6:11Speaker 4: Of question is that it is question what would be
- 6:14Speaker 4: your meal that you ate for the rest of your life.
- 6:18Speaker 4: It could be like one specific thing from a restaurant.
- 6:20Speaker 4: It could be a specific meal one thing.
- 6:24Speaker 2: Am I gonna get fat?
- 6:26Speaker 1: No?
- 6:26Speaker 4: You don't, you don't. It doesn't impact your health. My
- 6:29Speaker 4: choice is really easy. It's it's either my mom cooking
- 6:32Speaker 4: it or my wife. They both make it like perfect
- 6:36Speaker 4: it's a homemade eggplant parm like homemade noodles all from scratch,
- 6:43Speaker 4: egg by palm and then homemade noodles on top. I
- 6:48Speaker 4: could eat it for the rest of my life growing up.
- 6:50Speaker 4: On Sundays when I was in high school, when I
- 6:57Speaker 4: I would just sit, usually hungover, watching NFL a day,
- 7:01Speaker 4: my mom would make me a giant tray of akept
- 7:06Speaker 4: farm like a big casserole dish, and I would just
- 7:12Speaker 4: eat almost the entire thing and just heat it up
- 7:14Speaker 4: throughout the day and night until uh Sunday night football
- 7:18Speaker 4: is over. And then my wife learned how to cook
- 7:21Speaker 4: it a little little spin on it, but just as good.
- 7:26Speaker 4: So that is. That is my easy, easy choice choice one.
- 7:29Speaker 1: A yeah, I'm not too far off of that. Mine
- 7:32Speaker 1: is lavagna and I'll take it from any direction. Mom, wife,
- 7:36Speaker 1: Uh for Zoli's Maggiano's. I don't everybody gross everybody.
- 7:45Speaker 3: I'm gonna say a special from waffle House. I want
- 7:51Speaker 3: scrambled eggs. I want a chocolate chip waffle. I want
- 7:54Speaker 3: truck or Coffee because their coffee is truck or Coffee.
- 7:57Speaker 3: I want extra crispy hash browns. I want a cid
- 8:00Speaker 3: of grits and a biscuit, not toast breakfast all day.
- 8:05Speaker 4: You guys are going Fizzoli's and waffle House for the
- 8:07Speaker 4: choice of what you would eat the rest of.
- 8:09Speaker 1: Your I'm just saying that if they if that was
- 8:13Speaker 1: the only option for the lasagna, I would accept.
- 8:16Speaker 3: If I'm not going to get fat, Yeah, I'm gonna
- 8:19Speaker 3: eat waffle House every single day.
- 8:21Speaker 2: Oh and bacon, duh.
- 8:23Speaker 4: I feel it happen. What do you got? You do
- 8:25Speaker 4: have something in New York, a certain meal or something
- 8:27Speaker 4: from your your.
- 8:29Speaker 2: Family, or about waffle House, I wouldn't.
- 8:32Speaker 5: Say it's New York specific. I had three things in mind.
- 8:34Speaker 6: I love sushi, I was thinking about lobster, and I
- 8:37Speaker 6: like sausage and peppers. Those felt like the three things
- 8:39Speaker 6: I could potentially eat for every meal and not care.
- 8:42Speaker 1: See, I think I like where Evan's head is at.
- 8:44Speaker 1: Is that I Part of the reason I like lasagna
- 8:47Speaker 1: is it's cost effective too. But in this scenario, I
- 8:50Speaker 1: don't think we need to think we don't need the
- 8:52Speaker 1: factor in pricing.
- 8:53Speaker 6: No, perhaps God, now, yeah, that's the last price didn't
- 8:57Speaker 6: even cross my mind.
- 8:59Speaker 1: So that's.
- 9:01Speaker 2: I'm stucky, not a wlawful house.
- 9:04Speaker 1: Perfect transition with seafood into our shrimply unbelievable stat of
- 9:09Speaker 1: the week courtesy of that man right there who loves
- 9:11Speaker 1: him some lobster is Evan Abrams, with some help from
- 9:15Speaker 1: our Rainbow Shrimp as well. The Panthers haven't won or
- 9:18Speaker 1: covered a spread in a game regular season postseason where
- 9:21Speaker 1: they were favored in a game since twenty twenty one
- 9:25Speaker 1: September of twenty twenty one. That's four full years ago.
- 9:28Speaker 1: Now this no longer applies because the Dolphins have flipped
- 9:31Speaker 1: back to a favorite. They opened as a favorite, then
- 9:33Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill went down and the Panthers were favorite. Now
- 9:36Speaker 1: we're back to the Dolphins's one point favorites in this game. However,
- 9:40Speaker 1: the plight of the Panthers with expectations behind them still applies.
- 9:44Speaker 1: Bryce Young has closed as a three point dog or
- 9:48Speaker 1: shorter four times in his career as a starter, and
- 9:50Speaker 1: Carolina has scored less than twenty points in every single
- 9:54Speaker 1: one of those games, averaging thirteen point three in those situations.
- 10:00Speaker 1: The Dolphins are going to be able to score on
- 10:01Speaker 1: this Panthers defense, and if the Panthers aren't able to
- 10:05Speaker 1: match that, then this is a Dolphins spot. Stucky, We
- 10:08Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday Show. It kind of feels
- 10:11Speaker 1: like this is a primed Panthers bounce back. But do
- 10:15Speaker 1: those numbers scare you at all?
- 10:18Speaker 5: No?
- 10:18Speaker 4: I mean, so, if the Fantas close plus one, then
- 10:21Speaker 4: then they're okay. But if they're minus one, they're not.
- 10:24Speaker 4: I like the Panthers here.
- 10:26Speaker 1: The Panthers.
- 10:27Speaker 4: Yeah, they flipped to a favor and then there was
- 10:28Speaker 4: a service release a person who sells place, There was
- 10:33Speaker 4: a couple and then it flipped to Miami. I wouldn't
- 10:35Speaker 4: be shocked if this eventually flips back and the Panthers
- 10:38Speaker 4: closes a favor. These are not These are two teams
- 10:42Speaker 4: that are bad. But I think it's a great spot
- 10:45Speaker 4: for the Panthers. They're coming off of a misleading loss.
- 10:47Speaker 4: Their special teams were disaster New England. Miami short week
- 10:52Speaker 4: no Tyreek Hill. The defense is bad, they're not getting pressure,
- 10:56Speaker 4: The offensive line is atrocious. Now you lose one of
- 10:58Speaker 4: your two best weapons. Like, what does this Miami team
- 11:01Speaker 4: have going for it? They're trying to blitz a ton
- 11:03Speaker 4: on defense to make up for their lack of pressure.
- 11:06Speaker 4: Bryce Young has been really good against the blitz throughout
- 11:09Speaker 4: his short career so yeah. And the Panthers structurally play
- 11:13Speaker 4: a defense that you want to play to slow down
- 11:17Speaker 4: to it. And this Mike with Daniel offense, so Mike
- 11:21Speaker 4: the Donald offense.
- 11:22Speaker 3: So I.
- 11:25Speaker 4: I like the Panthers here. I think they get it done.
- 11:28Speaker 4: So yeah, not scared whatsoever. If anything, they're due. The
- 11:33Speaker 4: baby cats are due.
- 11:34Speaker 2: Yeah, I do care what cats?
- 11:37Speaker 1: Are? You back on the sad Cats, Kendra, I'm so close.
- 11:40Speaker 2: To being in on the sad Cats. My thing is
- 11:43Speaker 2: is that I.
- 11:43Speaker 3: Think at this point, I'm not even going to go
- 11:45Speaker 3: for the spread. I'm probably gonna go for the money line.
- 11:47Speaker 3: I think that's where the value is. It's plus one
- 11:49Speaker 3: hundred Obviously, if you're going for the spread, it's going
- 11:51Speaker 3: to be like the minus one ten area. If you
- 11:53Speaker 3: want the one and a half minus one fifteen, I
- 11:55Speaker 3: almost think it that short of a spread, Like you,
- 11:58Speaker 3: you got to go with.
- 11:58Speaker 2: The money line. That's where the value is.
- 12:00Speaker 4: Yeah, dogs off of a loss of four touchdowns or more.
- 12:06Speaker 4: For what it's worth sixty percent against the spread past
- 12:09Speaker 4: twenty five seasons, and that just goes back to you know,
- 12:12Speaker 4: maybe you're getting a little extra value at times when
- 12:16Speaker 4: these teams who just got blown out. No one wants
- 12:19Speaker 4: to bet them now. You know they're an underdog, although
- 12:24Speaker 4: not a huge underdog here, but just in general, teams
- 12:27Speaker 4: all flowout losses like that, and Miami was dominated by
- 12:30Speaker 4: the Jets. They're probably the most fortunate team of the week,
- 12:33Speaker 4: them and the Bears. I mean like minus fifteen net
- 12:37Speaker 4: success rate. They you know, the Jets had eleven penalties,
- 12:42Speaker 4: they were jobbed by the refs, They had three turnovers
- 12:46Speaker 4: and won by the goal line, out gaining the Dolphins
- 12:49Speaker 4: four hundred to three hundred. So this Miami team is bad.
- 12:52Speaker 4: I have no qualms fading them on the road.
- 12:56Speaker 3: They're also not good on the road. They're zero and
- 12:58Speaker 3: two on the road. Panthers are one I know at home.
- 13:00Speaker 3: Panthers haven't played a ton at home. I think being
- 13:02Speaker 3: in your own bed's gotta be good for something.
- 13:05Speaker 4: Yeah, I think they bounced back.
- 13:07Speaker 1: I took the Dolphins as a teaser leg when they
- 13:10Speaker 1: were I'm not willing to go head to head. I
- 13:14Speaker 1: have them up to seven and a half, so I'm
- 13:16Speaker 1: I'm gonna sit with that number. I have that with
- 13:19Speaker 1: the Texans. I got that when they were at three
- 13:22Speaker 1: and a half. So I feel pretty good about where
- 13:24Speaker 1: I'm at with that. That one's in the app, but
- 13:26Speaker 1: those numbers have disappeared with Lamar being out. Still to
- 13:30Speaker 1: come our newly named parlay a week off of our
- 13:33Speaker 1: first dub as a trio. Great week on the Favorites
- 13:36Speaker 1: in week four, We're about to get to our picks,
- 13:37Speaker 1: but first I'm gonna kick it to myself to talk
- 13:40Speaker 1: about DraftKings. The Favorites is sponsored by DraftKings and in
- 13:44Speaker 1: partnership with DraftKings, we'd like to tell you the next
- 13:46Speaker 1: great touchdown is coming and you can bet on it
- 13:48Speaker 1: right now. New customers bet five dollars and get two
- 13:51Speaker 1: hundred dollars in bonus bets. That's right, New customers, turn
- 13:55Speaker 1: five bucks into two hundred if your bet wins paid
- 13:58Speaker 1: instantly in bonus bets. To get started, use the promo
- 14:01Speaker 1: code Favorites when signing up once more, that's code Favorites
- 14:05Speaker 1: at DraftKings when signing up to get on board, the
- 14:08Speaker 1: crown is yours. So, Kendra, what game has you in
- 14:13Speaker 1: a pickle? As we enter week five?
- 14:16Speaker 3: I gotta go with the Broncos and the Eagles. I
- 14:20Speaker 3: think the Eagles obviously, as we know four and oh
- 14:22Speaker 3: have been a lucky four and oh two and oh
- 14:24Speaker 3: at home, Broncos two and two, zero and two away.
- 14:28Speaker 3: Not sure who Bonix is right now. He's had some
- 14:30Speaker 3: really up and down moments through this season. The defense
- 14:33Speaker 3: has been strong, but we've also seen them struggle at times.
- 14:36Speaker 3: Will Philly's luck run out while the Broncos defense come
- 14:39Speaker 3: up with a huge win. This game is a real
- 14:41Speaker 3: question mark for me. Obviously, I love the Eagles at home,
- 14:44Speaker 3: but the Broncos have been feisty. I think they're due
- 14:47Speaker 3: for a big win. This game has me a little confused.
- 14:51Speaker 1: This is a luck game through and through. Read Nick
- 14:55Speaker 1: Giffen's article at actionnetwork dot com if you haven't already.
- 14:57Speaker 1: The luck differential in this game is twenty three. The
- 15:00Speaker 1: Eagles have been the luckiest team in the NFL. The
- 15:03Speaker 1: Broncos have been twenty fourth and so Nick Giffin has
- 15:08Speaker 1: pointed this out as an A grade with a luck
- 15:12Speaker 1: based cover rate of sixty percent. Unlucky teams receiving an
- 15:17Speaker 1: A grade are twenty five to fifteen and two against
- 15:19Speaker 1: the spread. That's nearly sixty three percent, and these luck
- 15:24Speaker 1: rankings hit their optimal efficiency weeks two through Week four.
- 15:28Speaker 1: A little bit of a dip between week five and
- 15:31Speaker 1: week seven, so this is right in the heart of
- 15:34Speaker 1: luck ranking season. It picks back up after Week seven,
- 15:38Speaker 1: and the Broncos are clearly the side here and it
- 15:42Speaker 1: looks like they're taking money as well. This went from
- 15:45Speaker 1: four and a half down to three and a half.
- 15:47Speaker 1: I have a bet on the Broncos. I'm willing to
- 15:51Speaker 1: I'm willing to argue that one in terms of throwing
- 15:54Speaker 1: that into our parlay. We'll get to that portion of
- 15:57Speaker 1: the show on the tail end. Did you end up
- 16:00Speaker 1: up on that side, stucky on the Denver Broncos. Yeah.
- 16:04Speaker 4: I played the Broncos mainly a fade of the Eagles.
- 16:09Speaker 4: The Eagles that they're just not that not the same
- 16:11Speaker 4: team as they were last year. Yet they've been extremely fortunate.
- 16:14Speaker 4: You know, you took the blocked field goal, the block
- 16:16Speaker 4: punt last week. They played a really banged up Tampa team.
- 16:20Speaker 3: Uh.
- 16:21Speaker 4: This this team is not look good. Their defense has
- 16:22Speaker 4: been around league average. If you look at some of
- 16:24Speaker 4: the advanced stats you can run on them, their thirtieth
- 16:27Speaker 4: and rushed success rate. I think that's what Denver is
- 16:29Speaker 4: gonna lean on here. And the Broncos have the better
- 16:32Speaker 4: defense as well. And this Eagles offensive line is also
- 16:36Speaker 4: way down Lane Johnson dealing with injury. The interior is
- 16:39Speaker 4: not as good. They really missed Mackai Becton. There's also
- 16:42Speaker 4: I think some lingering injuries in the interior. So I
- 16:46Speaker 4: think the Broncos can take advantage there. You can put
- 16:49Speaker 4: certain on aj Brown, not that they're throwing to them anyway.
- 16:52Speaker 2: Yeah, what's the deal with that?
- 16:55Speaker 4: The offensive quarter? I think it's the offensive coordinator drop off.
- 16:57Speaker 4: I think it's massive. I mean it's a team that
- 17:00Speaker 4: had nine yards or like nineteen yards last week in
- 17:04Speaker 4: the second half. They had thirty three yards in the
- 17:05Speaker 4: first half against the Rams. Now you're going up against
- 17:08Speaker 4: one of the best defenses in the country. But in
- 17:10Speaker 4: the NFL, excuse me, Like the offense is Barkley's not
- 17:14Speaker 4: even the same.
- 17:15Speaker 1: That's big bets on campus coming through, by the way,
- 17:17Speaker 1: we see that. Yeah.
- 17:18Speaker 4: Yeah, so I just was I guess I'll plug my
- 17:24Speaker 4: college piece. I just spent all night writing my college
- 17:26Speaker 4: stuff up. So check out Action neverorkap actually dot com.
- 17:29Speaker 4: But the Barkley last year, on the second half of games,
- 17:32Speaker 4: he averaged six point seven yards per carry. It's two
- 17:34Speaker 4: point seven this year, four yards per carry less, Like
- 17:38Speaker 4: the run game isn't even bailing them out. They're just
- 17:40Speaker 4: getting by on smoking mirrors. So I do like Denver,
- 17:45Speaker 4: And I mean even Lane Johnson's banged up, so he's
- 17:48Speaker 4: not at one hundred percent full strength, and he's super important.
- 17:51Speaker 4: He might be their most important offensive player. And if
- 17:54Speaker 4: you go back historically, I mean he might be. I
- 17:58Speaker 4: think he's probably the best right tackle in the NFL. Well,
- 18:00Speaker 4: the Eagles are one oh five fifty five and one
- 18:02Speaker 4: with Lane Johnson, it's a sixty seven percent win percentage.
- 18:06Speaker 4: Without them, they're fifteen and twenty three, thirty nine percent
- 18:09Speaker 4: win percentage. So yeah, I think the Broncos can lean
- 18:12Speaker 4: on their ground game, lean on their defense. This will
- 18:15Speaker 4: be a lower scoring game. Points at a premium, so
- 18:17Speaker 4: endything over a field goal.
- 18:19Speaker 2: I like, Denver, you guys are scaring me. Fading the
- 18:22Speaker 2: Eagles at home.
- 18:24Speaker 1: This feels like the bro Hug game of the week.
- 18:26Speaker 1: Come on, you.
- 18:27Speaker 2: Guys, you guys are scaring me. Like, I get it.
- 18:31Speaker 3: AJ Brown is posting Bible verses on Twitter, like, clearly
- 18:34Speaker 3: shit is like not one hundred percent, but fading Eagles
- 18:37Speaker 3: out on this scared.
- 18:39Speaker 1: Here's the thing that has not looked good the Brown
- 18:41Speaker 1: stuff is that they've had these issues before and it
- 18:45Speaker 1: didn't stop them. They won a Super Bowl with locker
- 18:48Speaker 1: room strife. So I just don't know what to make
- 18:50Speaker 1: of that. As far as a look at this game,
- 18:54Speaker 1: he hasn't been involved and they've still been winning and
- 18:56Speaker 1: covering the spread. They're three and one. Ats.
- 19:00Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say, is it a AJ Brown anytime week?
- 19:03Speaker 3: Do we think they're going to feed him to make
- 19:04Speaker 3: him happy? Because they did that last year when he started,
- 19:06Speaker 3: you know, popping off on social media, they fed him
- 19:09Speaker 3: to keep him happy.
- 19:10Speaker 2: Is this is this?
- 19:11Speaker 1: Is this a look just doesn't feel like the matchup
- 19:14Speaker 1: for it.
- 19:14Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm as certain. And by the way, yeah, the
- 19:17Speaker 4: Eagles are three and one against the spread. They needed
- 19:18Speaker 4: They were down twenty at home to the Rams and
- 19:21Speaker 4: needed a block'll.
- 19:24Speaker 1: This is why this is why this has an a
- 19:27Speaker 1: grade on it in the luck rankings. Yeah, they didn't cover.
- 19:30Speaker 4: Against the Cowboys, so they should be zero and two
- 19:31Speaker 4: against the spread at home. So uh yeah, if they
- 19:36Speaker 4: cover again on a block field goal return that they
- 19:38Speaker 4: should just go down on like the game is over.
- 19:40Speaker 4: The only way you lose is if you return that
- 19:43Speaker 4: but uh neither here nor there. So if I lose
- 19:46Speaker 4: on a block field again, sobey it. But uh yeah,
- 19:50Speaker 4: I like your Gronko's.
- 19:52Speaker 1: According to Action Network betting data, teams with sixty percent
- 19:55Speaker 1: of the tickets this season ten and twenty four ats
- 19:59Speaker 1: through the first four So I've got some public darlings
- 20:02Speaker 1: out there. It's a long list. If you just want
- 20:06Speaker 1: to fade these teams, chances are you'll end up profitable
- 20:11Speaker 1: this weekend the publics do.
- 20:13Speaker 4: I wouldn't necessarily say that, though, Just keep out of mind,
- 20:15Speaker 4: like they're not gonna they're gonna have They're always remember this,
- 20:17Speaker 4: They're gonna have good weeks. Public bets can win all
- 20:20Speaker 4: the time. Maybe maybe they're they're due for a bounce back,
- 20:24Speaker 4: but what do you got who are.
- 20:25Speaker 1: The big eventually? That is true, but if if, And
- 20:30Speaker 1: that's the weird thing about trends. Sometimes trends die sight unseen,
- 20:34Speaker 1: and sometimes you can catch them on the tail end
- 20:37Speaker 1: before they fizzle out. So, of course, don't just blindly
- 20:40Speaker 1: bet anything, but buyer beware, I think is probably the
- 20:43Speaker 1: best way to put this. On The Ravens plus one
- 20:46Speaker 1: and a half these are all teams that I'm gonna
- 20:48Speaker 1: mention that sixty of the bets or more according to
- 20:54Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot Com. Ravens plus one and a half, Lion's
- 20:58Speaker 1: minus ten against Cincy, the Bucks plus three against Seattle Giants,
- 21:02Speaker 1: plus two at New Orleans, Colts, minus seven against the Raiders,
- 21:07Speaker 1: Cowboys minus two and a half at the Jets, Cardinals
- 21:10Speaker 1: minus seven and a half against the Titans, and the
- 21:12Speaker 1: Browns are on the borderline. They're fifty nine percent, so
- 21:15Speaker 1: they're kind of scratching the surface there. But that's a
- 21:18Speaker 1: ton of public percentages that are out there, and I
- 21:23Speaker 1: like a couple of these other sides. So I feel
- 21:25Speaker 1: good being on the fade the public side this week
- 21:28Speaker 1: because I've definitely gotten caught up with some popular teams
- 21:31Speaker 1: in the first couple weeks of the season. But it
- 21:33Speaker 1: feels like some of those teams do have alarm bells
- 21:36Speaker 1: on them in terms of the public sentiment, Kendrick, is
- 21:39Speaker 1: there anything that stood out to you there?
- 21:41Speaker 3: I feel like the only thing that I thought was
- 21:43Speaker 3: maybe the Giants.
- 21:44Speaker 2: That's about it.
- 21:45Speaker 3: Everything other than that, I gotta be honest, I don't
- 21:49Speaker 3: love this late this week. I feel like, once again
- 21:51Speaker 3: numbers are just getting too huge. Maybe the Colts, I
- 21:54Speaker 3: would say, the Colts and the Giants stuck out to me,
- 21:56Speaker 3: what about you?
- 21:57Speaker 1: Stuck?
- 21:58Speaker 4: All makes sense? Nothing that I really pay attention to. Like,
- 22:03Speaker 4: I mean, last year, the public had like a massive
- 22:06Speaker 4: year all season long, so that could happen, and it
- 22:09Speaker 4: doesn't really bother bother me one way or the other.
- 22:13Speaker 4: I know people love it and love looking at it.
- 22:17Speaker 4: But the one that I probably agree with them the
- 22:20Speaker 4: most among those is the Browns. I just can't lay
- 22:24Speaker 4: points with this Vikings team. I don't care if it's
- 22:27Speaker 4: a rookie quarterback, like I think it's gonna be an
- 22:29Speaker 4: upgrade because you can Gabriel movie. They're just gonna hand
- 22:31Speaker 4: it off. They're gonna try to run on Minnesota is
- 22:33Speaker 4: their run. He's been bad. I just don't know how
- 22:36Speaker 4: you're gonna block Cleveland. So with Carson Wentz, who's atrocious,
- 22:40Speaker 4: I just holds onto the ball too long. He's gonna
- 22:42Speaker 4: have three backup offensive linemen going up against the Cleveland front.
- 22:45Speaker 4: I don't know how Minnesota moves the ball. The totals
- 22:48Speaker 4: thirty six, and then you're gonna ask Minnesota to win
- 22:50Speaker 4: by margin. So Yeah, I just think they're gonna rely
- 22:54Speaker 4: on Judkins. Here Minnesota's twenty sixth and rush epa twentieth
- 22:58Speaker 4: and rush success rate on defense, It's like they've been
- 23:00Speaker 4: bad against the runn You saw that last week the
- 23:02Speaker 4: Steelers who couldn't they'd have a run game all.
- 23:04Speaker 3: Year and had such bet regret. I wanted to bet
- 23:07Speaker 3: the Steelers so bad. I said this on here. I
- 23:10Speaker 3: was almost behind the Steelers and I had such bad
- 23:13Speaker 3: bet regret.
- 23:14Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Kenneth Gainwell looked great. He was running
- 23:16Speaker 4: all over them. So uh, that's probably the one I
- 23:19Speaker 4: agree with the most.
- 23:20Speaker 3: My thing is is that the Vikings have just been
- 23:22Speaker 3: over in that time zone all week, and once again,
- 23:25Speaker 3: I'm going to live and die by that sword.
- 23:27Speaker 2: So that's where I'm at with that.
- 23:29Speaker 1: It's not a big sample size, but it's a small,
- 23:32Speaker 1: profitable sample size, and it is part of the reason
- 23:34Speaker 1: why I find myself on Minnesota. That was my plant
- 23:37Speaker 1: the flag game on Tuesday's episode, Evan, where do you
- 23:39Speaker 1: end up bringing Evan Abrams? Because you write about this
- 23:43Speaker 1: a lot in the primer, Where do you land on
- 23:47Speaker 1: the overall value of public sides? And in fading strong
- 23:54Speaker 1: percentages in that regard or is that something that we
- 23:57Speaker 1: as recreational betters tend to overrate.
- 24:01Speaker 6: It's something I look at after coming to a conclusion,
- 24:03Speaker 6: and it's not something I mean. I think it's just
- 24:05Speaker 6: interesting information one way or the other. And I think
- 24:08Speaker 6: a lot of different sources also come up with different percentages.
- 24:11Speaker 5: I think, And here's the one thing.
- 24:13Speaker 6: I would want at a betting percentages that I feel
- 24:16Speaker 6: like even Action Network would probably try to do to
- 24:18Speaker 6: make it a little bit more accurate, is I'd like
- 24:20Speaker 6: to see betting percentages.
- 24:22Speaker 5: Around the timeline of the.
- 24:23Speaker 6: Line because, like I'm really really curious about, you know,
- 24:27Speaker 6: the ravens, Like how much of that money came in early,
- 24:30Speaker 6: how much of that money since Russia has been named
- 24:32Speaker 6: the starter? Like I think certain things like that bring
- 24:34Speaker 6: more to the table and give a little bit more
- 24:36Speaker 6: information to the situation. But nonetheless, it's eye candy, it's
- 24:40Speaker 6: fun to talk about, and the numbers as a whole
- 24:43Speaker 6: is an interesting microcosm of the season.
- 24:45Speaker 1: Would you also say that it's the most valuable right
- 24:48Speaker 1: before kickoff and anything prior to that, it can be
- 24:51Speaker 1: noisy in terms of the numbers.
- 24:53Speaker 6: I would say, yeah, But I would also say the
- 24:55Speaker 6: delta between like the start of the weekend, and like,
- 24:59Speaker 6: I think looking at it in if you could do
- 25:02Speaker 6: it in like spans, would be more interesting because I
- 25:06Speaker 6: do think, as Stucky knows and everyone knows, like certain
- 25:09Speaker 6: money comes into the market at different times which impact
- 25:12Speaker 6: those betting percentages. So something that's like fifty nine percent
- 25:16Speaker 6: now could be drastically different. So that's probably the way
- 25:19Speaker 6: I would prefer to look at it if I could.
- 25:21Speaker 4: I think, Yeah, for example, the forty nine Ers Rams
- 25:24Speaker 4: game tonight, I mean that's you might see someone say like, hey,
- 25:31Speaker 4: seventy eight percent of the bets are on the Rams. Well,
- 25:35Speaker 4: the Rams were minus three and a half, then they
- 25:37Speaker 4: were minus five and a half, they were minus six
- 25:39Speaker 4: out there, minus eight and a half. A lot of
- 25:41Speaker 4: recreational betters will bet the day of and then what
- 25:46Speaker 4: they're laying eight and a half. So if the forty
- 25:49Speaker 4: nine Ers win, I mean, if the Rams win by seven, right,
- 25:54Speaker 4: like they technically didn't cover the clothes, but what percent,
- 25:59Speaker 4: a lot of people well would have cashed their bets
- 26:01Speaker 4: because there's just a line at different points. And yeah,
- 26:03Speaker 4: and as you mentioned, like limit sculpturing the week and
- 26:05Speaker 4: there's different inflection points with that data. So yeah, I
- 26:08Speaker 4: think that there's there's definitely an opportunity for media and
- 26:12Speaker 4: the way that's reported to get a little a little
- 26:16Speaker 4: bit more refined in how we report that. So but
- 26:20Speaker 4: definitely interesting to look at.
- 26:21Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's it's just another it's another data point.
- 26:25Speaker 1: It is not a reason to place a bet on
- 26:28Speaker 1: either side. But I will say I tend to feel
- 26:31Speaker 1: better when I don't see that those percentages are skewed
- 26:33Speaker 1: in terms of the overall bet percentage, and I happen
- 26:36Speaker 1: to be on the other side, And this does feel
- 26:38Speaker 1: like it's one of those weeks. It's time now for
- 26:40Speaker 1: the artist. Formerly known as the Three Musketeers, Parlay took
- 26:45Speaker 1: a couple of l's to start the season, and then
- 26:49Speaker 1: what you know, we renamed it and we cashed with
- 26:53Speaker 1: a dub last week the Parlay hit. We went six
- 26:56Speaker 1: and two overall with our best bets on the podcast
- 26:59Speaker 1: throughout the week. Make sure you're following the favorites on
- 27:01Speaker 1: the Action Network app forty five percent ROI last week
- 27:05Speaker 1: absolutely killer. A round of applause for everybody here, But
- 27:09Speaker 1: we can't celebrate too long because we have to hand
- 27:12Speaker 1: out more winners. It's just about what have you done
- 27:15Speaker 1: for me lately? So we've got more to hand out here.
- 27:17Speaker 1: This is where we're going to nominate two plays each
- 27:19Speaker 1: see if we can come to a general consensus. Kendrick,
- 27:21Speaker 1: you put out the social media video asking the audience
- 27:25Speaker 1: what we should rename this parlay too. I haven't even
- 27:28Speaker 1: gotten a note about what that is, so inform me
- 27:32Speaker 1: what are we calling this?
- 27:33Speaker 2: I think that this is a Gifford question.
- 27:35Speaker 1: Right, do we have kings and a queen? Right?
- 27:40Speaker 4: Is not the best? Is not the best one we've gotten.
- 27:42Speaker 3: I think that that's probably the best bet, But I
- 27:44Speaker 3: don't know. It's definitely a Gifferd question.
- 27:47Speaker 4: If you're asked me, that's my vote. Okay, So tennecos
- 27:52Speaker 4: a DraftKings, I think it makes no sense.
- 27:54Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in it now.
- 27:55Speaker 4: You need to hit it this weekend.
- 27:57Speaker 1: Okay, the crown is yours, Kendra, go ahead.
- 28:02Speaker 3: So I am between going with the Titans or the Chargers.
- 28:07Speaker 3: The Titans have been frisky, man. I loved Cam.
- 28:10Speaker 2: Woard saying yeah, like, I think that they've played better
- 28:14Speaker 2: than they've looked. That's what I'll say.
- 28:16Speaker 1: Yes, scored zero points last week.
- 28:18Speaker 3: I know, and but they hung in that game for
- 28:20Speaker 3: the first quarter.
- 28:21Speaker 2: Don't don't come in me.
- 28:22Speaker 3: I watched this game in the stadium on my phone.
- 28:24Speaker 2: They hung in there for that first quarter.
- 28:26Speaker 3: Okay, I think that they've looked better than the scorer
- 28:28Speaker 3: has shown. I like that cam Ward is like, yeah,
- 28:31Speaker 3: we suck.
- 28:32Speaker 2: It is what it is.
- 28:33Speaker 3: I don't think that the Cardinals should be favored by
- 28:35Speaker 3: this many points against anybody. They haven't done anything spectacular,
- 28:39Speaker 3: too big of a number like the Titans. Other option
- 28:42Speaker 3: is going to be the Chargers on a bounce back.
- 28:44Speaker 3: I get that the Chargers are injured. The Commanders are
- 28:46Speaker 3: also injured. It makes sense for me the Chargers are
- 28:50Speaker 3: at home this week bounce back or just hoping that
- 28:54Speaker 3: the Titans can hang in there enough.
- 29:01Speaker 2: I'll go to my world.
- 29:02Speaker 3: Usually I hate everything you guys have, so I'll let's see.
- 29:06Speaker 4: I if I had to pick, like the charters, Evan.
- 29:12Speaker 1: Joe Joe Alt is highly questionable.
- 29:15Speaker 3: It looks like doubtful.
- 29:18Speaker 4: Or high ankles forraying week after a doubt.
- 29:22Speaker 1: Jaydon Daniels's bag, but how healthy is he?
- 29:26Speaker 3: Mclaurin's hurt, Like both of these rosters are decimated.
- 29:29Speaker 2: That's not the question for me.
- 29:31Speaker 4: Uh, Like, here's the thing. If I had to break
- 29:34Speaker 4: the tie, every trend in the world says about the Titans, Like, just.
- 29:39Speaker 2: Weren't you.
- 29:41Speaker 1: Every every trend except for the Titans.
- 29:43Speaker 4: Yeah, but I'm saying that there's usually one team that
- 29:47Speaker 4: just defies that, Like it used to be the Browns
- 29:49Speaker 4: back in the day that every week they would get
- 29:51Speaker 4: chart money and they just wouldn't cover.
- 29:54Speaker 2: All Right. My other option was going to be the Cowboys.
- 29:56Speaker 2: Do you like that better?
- 29:59Speaker 4: I bet the Jet So I think the Titans is
- 30:02Speaker 4: like that. The Titans are three and eighteen against the
- 30:04Speaker 4: spread under Brian Callahan. He's a joke, Like he's the
- 30:06Speaker 4: worst coach maybe in NFL history. He costs the team
- 30:09Speaker 4: every week.
- 30:10Speaker 1: He's gonna get fired before McDaniel does.
- 30:12Speaker 4: This team also wears down every week because with their
- 30:15Speaker 4: defense with sweat on ir that their Simmons wears down.
- 30:18Speaker 4: So you have one coach who never covers and then
- 30:21Speaker 4: another coach who always does, in Harball, and who just wins.
- 30:26Speaker 4: So my vote would be to start off the parlay
- 30:30Speaker 4: with Chargers money online and just trust Harbor, Harball and
- 30:34Speaker 4: Herbert to get it done at home. The Washington defense
- 30:36Speaker 4: is bad.
- 30:37Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I'm in for that. I was gonna vote
- 30:40Speaker 1: the Chargers anyway if we can eliminate the number.
- 30:42Speaker 2: Weren't you in on the Titans on Tuesday?
- 30:45Speaker 4: Me?
- 30:46Speaker 1: No, I put them in solitary confinement. They're now in jail.
- 30:50Speaker 3: I think stuck. He was in on the Titans on Tuesday.
- 30:52Speaker 3: I listened to this you he was.
- 30:55Speaker 1: Only he would only lean in that direction because he
- 30:57Speaker 1: wants to fade me at every opportunity. And I that
- 31:00Speaker 1: the Titans are unbettable.
- 31:02Speaker 4: No, I can't bet the Tights. I would need ten,
- 31:04Speaker 4: I said, I said, there's a number forever you did.
- 31:06Speaker 2: You did, but I'm just saying not ten. Wait, is
- 31:09Speaker 2: Lad McConkie still in bet jail for me? Because he
- 31:12Speaker 2: still has a scorn?
- 31:14Speaker 4: Yes? He is?
- 31:16Speaker 2: We hi I it like I was. He is. He
- 31:20Speaker 2: is my goblin mask.
- 31:22Speaker 1: I don't know what it is.
- 31:24Speaker 4: All right, we're starting. So we're starting with Chargers money line.
- 31:28Speaker 4: My two are going to be the Panthers plus one.
- 31:32Speaker 4: We'll call it. And I guess if you went money,
- 31:36Speaker 4: then we'll go Panthers money line or Saints money line.
- 31:40Speaker 4: I like the Saints ofthing against the Giants. Panthers first
- 31:43Speaker 4: bet I made, uh the Saints like, look Jackson Dart's
- 31:47Speaker 4: first road start, there's no molik, neighbors. What did you
- 31:49Speaker 4: do last week? I mean he threw for eighty yards
- 31:51Speaker 4: and that was with the leak neighbors playing half the game.
- 31:54Speaker 4: All you gotta do is spy him. That's all they
- 31:56Speaker 4: have to do here. And then how are they going
- 31:57Speaker 4: to move the ball? Quarterbacks making their first two starts
- 32:01Speaker 4: on the road, so within their first two starts when
- 32:04Speaker 4: they've been on the road. This is thanks to Evan Abrams.
- 32:07Speaker 4: By the way, they're thirteen and thirty four. Straight up,
- 32:10Speaker 4: there's tape on. Now what the Giants want to do?
- 32:12Speaker 4: Like they caught the charters off guard last week, and look,
- 32:14Speaker 4: if you go back and watch that game, the Giants
- 32:16Speaker 4: were dominated. They got two picks that basically turned into
- 32:18Speaker 4: touchdowns because their defensive line dominated the game. Saints are
- 32:22Speaker 4: haven't won a game yet, looking for their first win
- 32:24Speaker 4: at home. They went to Totoe with the forty nine ers,
- 32:26Speaker 4: to Totoe with the Cardinals. They played. They went to Totoe
- 32:28Speaker 4: with the Bills in Buffalo. That game is basically dead
- 32:30Speaker 4: even throughout like everyone, I thought that the Saints had
- 32:35Speaker 4: to have a review to take a touchdown off the
- 32:37Speaker 4: board that would have given them the lead with six
- 32:39Speaker 4: to go in the game. So they were right there.
- 32:42Speaker 4: Their defense is twentyeighth and success rate Giants is twenty ninth.
- 32:45Speaker 4: The biggest tee here though, and you look, you might
- 32:48Speaker 4: have Taysom Hill contributing in some way. The rush defenses.
- 32:52Speaker 4: Both these teams want to run the ball like that's
- 32:54Speaker 4: all the Giants can do. They're they're just gonna try
- 32:57Speaker 4: to run dark give it to Scataboo. The Saints are
- 33:00Speaker 4: sixteenth in rush EPA eleventh and success rate on defense
- 33:05Speaker 4: against the run. The Giants are thirty second in both.
- 33:09Speaker 2: But the Giants defensive line is so good.
- 33:12Speaker 1: But that's some past defense.
- 33:14Speaker 4: I think the I think the Saints can run it
- 33:16Speaker 4: here just like they did against Buffalo, and they can
- 33:19Speaker 4: stop the Giants rush. And Rattler has not been bad.
- 33:23Speaker 4: I mean he's he's basically been around league average. He's
- 33:25Speaker 4: seventeenth and success rate, fifteenth in completion percentage, sixteenth in
- 33:28Speaker 4: completion percentage over expectation. So uh yeah, first road start
- 33:34Speaker 4: for Dart Saints hunning their first win have been better
- 33:37Speaker 4: than people think. So it's either the Saints or the Panthers.
- 33:42Speaker 3: All right, Evan, You're gonna have to tie break. But
- 33:44Speaker 3: also I would like to say back on my Titans thing.
- 33:47Speaker 3: They got their buck kick last week by twenty six points,
- 33:50Speaker 3: and stucky. You love to talk about the teams who
- 33:53Speaker 3: get shut out and beat by that many points, So
- 33:55Speaker 3: I don't want to hear your bull crap about it.
- 33:57Speaker 4: I team's off of shut out. They are always good
- 34:00Speaker 4: bets teams off of blots. I got. I said the
- 34:03Speaker 4: Titans scream. I could every single possible trend you could
- 34:08Speaker 4: imagine the Titans are going to fit it. But I
- 34:11Speaker 4: have I have a The Titans have fit that for
- 34:13Speaker 4: the last year and a half, and they and Brian
- 34:16Speaker 4: Callahan one.
- 34:17Speaker 2: Week you I'm gonna like your gold.
- 34:20Speaker 4: I'm not saying they won't cover, but I'm saying Brian
- 34:22Speaker 4: Callahan is special. Three and eighteen against the spread is
- 34:25Speaker 4: like it's in the NFL is a pretty efficient market.
- 34:27Speaker 4: To go three and eighteen is mind boggling. But Evan,
- 34:30Speaker 4: you got to break the tide. Brianon is going with
- 34:33Speaker 4: the Saints, Benjuine with the Panthers, shocker.
- 34:38Speaker 3: Oh my god, I didn't have them last week, the
- 34:40Speaker 3: one week I didn't have them.
- 34:42Speaker 2: Thank God, don't come for me right now.
- 34:44Speaker 5: I at least have to say this.
- 34:45Speaker 6: The Titans Cardinals is the perfect market, Like seven and
- 34:48Speaker 6: a half on both sides. Why would I want to
- 34:50Speaker 6: touch a Cardinals Panthers game. Also, fewest total tickets of
- 34:54Speaker 6: any game this weekend. Betters are telling you they want
- 34:57Speaker 6: nothing to do with either side of that game.
- 34:59Speaker 5: So I'm sure that what that.
- 35:00Speaker 4: The stadium too, That stadium is not going to be it's.
- 35:03Speaker 5: It's gonna be horrible to either way. Panthers, There's absolutely.
- 35:07Speaker 6: No question that. Like, yeah, the sad Cats, it is
- 35:11Speaker 6: their time. This is a perfect line for them. I
- 35:14Speaker 6: would prefer the one and a half because I think that, yeah,
- 35:18Speaker 6: that game is going to be the sloppiest, dirtiest, worst
- 35:21Speaker 6: thing you've ever seen, where Miami could win by one.
- 35:23Speaker 5: I like it, But we're gonna go money line, sad Cats.
- 35:26Speaker 1: Give me the plus, yes, Evan, Yeah, I was really excited.
- 35:30Speaker 1: I was really excited to get the Saints in there.
- 35:31Speaker 1: But all right, we got the Chargers money line, we
- 35:33Speaker 1: have the Panthers money line. I think it's time we
- 35:36Speaker 1: hit a spread, I have. My two nominees are the
- 35:39Speaker 1: New York Jets plus two and a half at home
- 35:42Speaker 1: against the Cowboys or the Broncos the aforementioned plus four
- 35:48Speaker 1: against the Philadelphia Eagles. You know, the more I sit
- 35:52Speaker 1: and think about this Eagles team, just the way that
- 35:54Speaker 1: they've gotten to this point, they feel so fadable. Ceedee
- 35:58Speaker 1: lamb drops in week one and Kelsey bobble in week two.
- 36:01Speaker 1: The Rams out a nineteen point lead in week three,
- 36:04Speaker 1: and then more special teams buffoonery from from them in
- 36:09Speaker 1: week four against Tampa.
- 36:10Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 36:10Speaker 1: AJ Brown disgruntled, whatever that's worth. Saquan hasn't gone off yet,
- 36:14Speaker 1: They're dealing with Elane Johnson injury. This just feels like
- 36:16Speaker 1: such a such.
- 36:17Speaker 2: A fade against the Packers defense.
- 36:21Speaker 1: Yeah, who did the Cowboys?
- 36:24Speaker 4: Cowboys? Yeah? Okay, what do you what? Kevin Sketzo, what
- 36:28Speaker 4: are you going with? Kendra?
- 36:29Speaker 1: Oh?
- 36:29Speaker 2: My god?
- 36:30Speaker 3: Every week you make me feel like I'm choosing between
- 36:32Speaker 3: Satan and the devil every single week.
- 36:35Speaker 2: Every week.
- 36:36Speaker 1: God, I just want to say that, as as poorly
- 36:40Speaker 1: as my head to heads have gone with Stuckey, I
- 36:42Speaker 1: am over. I have hit my nominee on this parlay
- 36:47Speaker 1: two weeks in a row. So I've done my part here.
- 36:51Speaker 4: Oh Andrew, while you're deciding, I'll say, well said, we'll
- 36:55Speaker 4: keep it money line, let's go. I'm gonna go Jets.
- 36:57Speaker 4: I really like the Jets. I mean they look this
- 36:59Speaker 4: Cowboys team they got they got blown out by the
- 37:01Speaker 4: Bears backup defensive backs. They couldn't move the ball without
- 37:03Speaker 4: Ceedee Lamb. They also might be without multiple three or
- 37:06Speaker 4: four offensive linemen. Turpin might be out. Lamb is already out.
- 37:11Speaker 4: This is one of the worst defenses in the league.
- 37:12Speaker 4: They play. All they do is play zone. Fields has
- 37:15Speaker 4: been good against zone this year. Jets are top ten
- 37:17Speaker 4: success rate on offensive defense. They've been just completely burnt
- 37:20Speaker 4: by turnovers. They haven't forced any yet, so they're overdue.
- 37:23Speaker 4: I think they're the only team in the league hasn't
- 37:25Speaker 4: forced a turnover. Jags a force thirteen. That makes a
- 37:28Speaker 4: big difference teams who are zero and four or worse
- 37:32Speaker 4: facing a team that's five hundred or worse twenty and
- 37:35Speaker 4: eleven against the spread since twenty eighteen. So yeah, I
- 37:39Speaker 4: think that there's a lot going for the Jets here,
- 37:42Speaker 4: and if we want to keep it, keep this money line.
- 37:45Speaker 4: The Eagles are the new Chiefs. I'm sure they'll find
- 37:47Speaker 4: a way to win by three. My vote is for
- 37:50Speaker 4: the Jets and to go Jets money line. To make
- 37:54Speaker 4: it Chargers Panthers, Jets.
- 37:56Speaker 3: But Kendra, you fine Jets money line if I don't
- 38:02Speaker 3: think you like that one.
- 38:03Speaker 2: I don't think you like that one.
- 38:04Speaker 1: The Jets, by the way, dead last in Nick Giffen's
- 38:07Speaker 1: luck rankings. Dead last.
- 38:08Speaker 2: That's upset.
- 38:09Speaker 4: Yeah, they should be two and two. They should have
- 38:10Speaker 4: beat the Steelers. They all played the Steelers, it got
- 38:14Speaker 4: that entire game, and they dominated the Dolphins last week
- 38:18Speaker 4: and just got unlucky. So they should be two and two.
- 38:21Speaker 4: The Cowboys should have lost to the Giants at home.
- 38:23Speaker 4: They needed a miracle at the end. You know, easily
- 38:27Speaker 4: could have lost, Like the Cowboys could be over they
- 38:30Speaker 4: could easily. They could easily be alling four, and the
- 38:32Speaker 4: Jets could be two and two, and this line death
- 38:35Speaker 4: would would certainly be a I think the Jets, that's
- 38:37Speaker 4: a favorite. I think I don't know I make it
- 38:39Speaker 4: a pick. So uh, if Evan, if you had to
- 38:42Speaker 4: choose between those, between the Jets and Broncos, who would
- 38:45Speaker 4: you have went with both?
- 38:46Speaker 6: These are super sharp sides to the sense of like
- 38:49Speaker 6: I liked both games and I saw them in the rundown.
- 38:51Speaker 5: It was probably my favorite selections of the two.
- 38:53Speaker 4: I think at the moment, you would.
- 38:54Speaker 1: Go with the Jets.
- 38:55Speaker 6: I feel terrible about both of them, and then both
- 38:57Speaker 6: are going to go down in absolute disasters. Consider and
- 39:00Speaker 6: you're betting against Philly and you're betting on fields. But
- 39:04Speaker 6: I would go Jets.
- 39:05Speaker 4: And what's fields is record when other team scores twenty
- 39:08Speaker 4: five points, it is like five five Yeah. So but
- 39:13Speaker 4: the Cowboys offense is going to be beat up this week,
- 39:17Speaker 4: down multip potentially down multiple starting receivers, including their best,
- 39:20Speaker 4: and maybe down three or four offensive linemen. So it's
- 39:24Speaker 4: it's it's messy. And if you want to go by
- 39:26Speaker 4: the Jets can't move the ball will against this embarrassing defense.
- 39:30Speaker 1: I think if you wanted to go with the spot
- 39:32Speaker 1: play too the Cowboys coming off of that game, Yes,
- 39:35Speaker 1: they put up forty on the Packers. That was troubling
- 39:37Speaker 1: for Green Bay's defense that we all thought was top
- 39:40Speaker 1: of the line. Clearly there are question marks there, and
- 39:43Speaker 1: to do that without ceedee Lamb. But that was that
- 39:45Speaker 1: was a Super Bowl setting. You're on Sunday Night football.
- 39:48Speaker 1: Micah Parson's back in town. That felt like one of
- 39:50Speaker 1: the biggest games of the year from a hype perspective,
- 39:54Speaker 1: and then going to play the Jets the next week.
- 39:57Speaker 1: Is that's a big letdown spot emotionally. Yeah, tie oh,
- 40:02Speaker 1: I agree with that wholeheartedly.
- 40:04Speaker 4: I need to expand, expand the overtime like.
- 40:06Speaker 3: Fifteen do like do it like college does. Why do
- 40:09Speaker 3: we do it like college football? The college football overtime rules?
- 40:12Speaker 4: Yep? Agreed?
- 40:14Speaker 3: Okay, Wait, I have one last question, Evan, Chiefs are Jags?
- 40:18Speaker 2: You can break my heart. It's okay. I don't expect
- 40:19Speaker 2: to win this game.
- 40:20Speaker 5: Oh there is no Jags.
- 40:22Speaker 6: Yeah, this isn't This isn't even a questions Jags game?
- 40:27Speaker 2: Are we dragging off?
- 40:28Speaker 4: Also? Casey is Detroit next week?
- 40:32Speaker 6: I mean that's going to be a massive game on
- 40:34Speaker 6: Sunday Night football, even though this is Monday night.
- 40:36Speaker 1: Like, jack are you going trapped? Are you going trap game? Here? Evan?
- 40:41Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 40:42Speaker 4: Every single week.
- 40:42Speaker 6: But I'm saying like that Lions game is massive I
- 40:45Speaker 6: think for both teams, and just the same the Seahawks.
- 40:48Speaker 5: I like Jacksonville.
- 40:49Speaker 4: This is Jags Podcast I have I bet on the
- 40:53Speaker 4: Jags uh this year. A couple of times. I have
- 40:56Speaker 4: had some futures on them to win the division, to
- 40:58Speaker 4: make the playoffs over their wind. Total love Liam Cohen,
- 41:01Speaker 4: loved him in college.
- 41:02Speaker 2: I was looking at flights this morning.
- 41:04Speaker 4: This This defense is better, their special teams are good.
- 41:07Speaker 4: The offense is going to come around like it's so
- 41:09Speaker 4: well schemed. I love the Jags. On Monday night, I'm
- 41:14Speaker 4: gonna have a podcast now, like I'm invested in the
- 41:16Speaker 4: Jags for the season, and the Ravens have to feel
- 41:22Speaker 4: a practice squad with Cooper Rush. Now Brandon's Dolphins are dead,
- 41:26Speaker 4: so like I'm I'm about thought.
- 41:30Speaker 5: I feel like you got to try to get Jackson
- 41:32Speaker 5: Deville on the pod. That's god, I'm going.
- 41:34Speaker 3: That's That's why I'm going home next weekend. I'm actually
- 41:37Speaker 3: collaborating with him.
- 41:39Speaker 1: Amazing, that's awesome. I'm really glad that you brought that up,
- 41:41Speaker 1: because I did not want to finish this podcast not
- 41:43Speaker 1: talking about the Chiefs and the Jags. I do worry, though,
- 41:47Speaker 1: so I'm with you. I think I'm gonna end up
- 41:49Speaker 1: atting Jacksonville. I had don't have anything on this game yet.
- 41:52Speaker 1: I worry about that Trayvon Walker injury and Xavier Worthy.
- 41:56Speaker 1: I think last week was a good example of how
- 41:59Speaker 1: valuable he is to this offense. He got hurt three
- 42:01Speaker 1: plays in too Game one in Brazil, the offense came
- 42:05Speaker 1: back to life with him on the field. Now, was
- 42:07Speaker 1: that the Ravens defense because they have issues or is
- 42:11Speaker 1: that the real twenty twenty five Chiefs Because if it is,
- 42:15Speaker 1: that's not a Chiefs team that I want to fade
- 42:17Speaker 1: in prime time. So that's that's my concern.
- 42:20Speaker 4: You trick you. I mean, we saw this Chiefs offense
- 42:23Speaker 4: all last year with when Worthy played, and they weren't
- 42:26Speaker 4: that explosive. Uh, the Ravens were without eight starters by
- 42:29Speaker 4: the end of that game on defense, including five Pro Bowlers.
- 42:32Speaker 4: You take any defense in the league, and then, by
- 42:34Speaker 4: the way, you take all those starters out of the
- 42:36Speaker 4: mix and then half of them during the game, like
- 42:39Speaker 4: any offense is going to look that explosive and competent.
- 42:42Speaker 4: I'm not buying it with the Chiefs yet, as far
- 42:44Speaker 4: as their offense looking explosive and Worthy helps for sure,
- 42:47Speaker 4: they still don't have a run game. The offensive line
- 42:50Speaker 4: still has issues. Yeah, the Walker injury Are they going
- 42:53Speaker 4: to club them up.
- 42:55Speaker 3: And let them Yeah, they He's not going to play
- 42:57Speaker 3: this week, but they're definitely going to club them up.
- 43:02Speaker 3: I watched him. It's pretty big. The defense has played
- 43:05Speaker 3: really well. But I the way that they switched everything
- 43:08Speaker 3: around to have Josh Allen kind of like sub in
- 43:12Speaker 3: a little bit last week I thought was awesome. They
- 43:14Speaker 3: definitely got a lot more pressure on brock Perty on
- 43:16Speaker 3: the right side than I thought that they would, which
- 43:19Speaker 3: was nice. But they're definitely gonna club him up. I
- 43:21Speaker 3: don't think he's gonna play this week.
- 43:23Speaker 4: My concern says there's a chance that he plays, so
- 43:26Speaker 4: we'll say.
- 43:26Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 43:27Speaker 3: When I watched him walk off the field, I thought
- 43:29Speaker 3: it was his shoulder at first because of the way
- 43:32Speaker 3: that he was like kind of holding his upper body.
- 43:35Speaker 2: So he's a tough guy. I don't know.
- 43:38Speaker 3: I don't, I don't. I don't think he plays. But
- 43:41Speaker 3: it's Chiefs Monday night. They might just shoot him up
- 43:43Speaker 3: and put a club on him. I'd love if they did.
- 43:45Speaker 4: Yeah, he had surgery yesterday, so they might just protect
- 43:49Speaker 4: it and see how.
- 43:50Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a long season.
- 43:53Speaker 2: I think you gotta I think you gotta sit him
- 43:55Speaker 2: this week.
- 43:56Speaker 4: Regardless. I like the Jacks, and.
- 43:58Speaker 2: It's also a better thing than I thought that it was.
- 44:00Speaker 3: I thought he was going to be out, you know,
- 44:02Speaker 3: six to eight weeks, and they're saying way less, like
- 44:05Speaker 3: they're like barely going to miss any time.
- 44:07Speaker 4: Yea officially day to day per Cohen.
- 44:11Speaker 1: But I can get down with that one more, one
- 44:14Speaker 1: more before we officially wrapped. Because the other primetime game
- 44:18Speaker 1: is Patriots Bills. I really want to bet the Patriots here.
- 44:21Speaker 1: Can somebody talk me out of it?
- 44:23Speaker 2: Don't do it, don't do it. No, it's I don't.
- 44:27Speaker 2: I don't think you should do that. The Bills are
- 44:30Speaker 2: the Bills have kind of been. I wonder what are
- 44:33Speaker 2: the Bills luck rankings, because.
- 44:36Speaker 1: I'm glad you asked they are the fifth luckiest team,
- 44:39Speaker 1: and I was gonna.
- 44:39Speaker 3: Say they feel like they've got to be up there too.
- 44:42Speaker 3: It's the fact that it's in Buffalo. I get that
- 44:44Speaker 3: they didn't look good against the Saints and they haven't
- 44:46Speaker 3: been the Bills team that we thought they would be
- 44:48Speaker 3: this season. But this Patriots team I just think is
- 44:51Speaker 3: due for a fallback to reality.
- 44:53Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 44:53Speaker 3: I was the Panthers, they beat the bag out of them.
- 44:55Speaker 3: The offense seemed to come together. Drake May maybe had
- 44:57Speaker 3: his coming out moment last week, but I just the
- 45:01Speaker 3: way that this Patriots team has been all year. I
- 45:03Speaker 3: think that they are due to a bump back to reality.
- 45:07Speaker 3: Divisional game, prime time in Orchard Park. It's the last
- 45:11Speaker 3: time the Patriots are going to play them in Orchard Park.
- 45:13Speaker 2: I think they're going to be the bag out of them.
- 45:16Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the lines just probably about right. To
- 45:18Speaker 4: be honest, there's some injuries worth monitoring with the Bills,
- 45:22Speaker 4: like are they gonna get Milano and at Oliver back
- 45:27Speaker 4: Spencer Brown? The right tack we want to play it
- 45:30Speaker 4: is not. I don't think it's a great matchup for
- 45:32Speaker 4: the Patriots because the Bills are still getting a pressure
- 45:34Speaker 4: at an elite rate. The Patriots are giving up pressure,
- 45:37Speaker 4: which means there's probably going to be some drives that
- 45:41Speaker 4: are killed by sacks. And look, May's playing really well,
- 45:45Speaker 4: especially on late downs, although I'm not sure he can
- 45:48Speaker 4: sustain this high a level, especially against the defense. It's
- 45:52Speaker 4: going to get pressure, but he has no help from
- 45:53Speaker 4: the run game. I think that's huge.
- 45:55Speaker 2: Because I was just going to add something this week.
- 45:58Speaker 3: They said this morning that Travion Henderson is expected to
- 46:02Speaker 3: get the majority of the touches over Stevenson this week.
- 46:06Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go's.
- 46:08Speaker 4: Their run game has been so bad, mainly because the
- 46:11Speaker 4: offensive line and like that's how you want to attack
- 46:14Speaker 4: this Bills team. And I haven't seen enough on the
- 46:16Speaker 4: Patriots to have confidence in their run game. Like the
- 46:21Speaker 4: Saints run game has been decent, which is why I
- 46:23Speaker 4: thought they could move the ball in Buffalo. I haven't
- 46:25Speaker 4: seen that from the Patriots. It means you're gonna be
- 46:26Speaker 4: third and longs and then there's gonna be pressure, and
- 46:29Speaker 4: then May's probably going to take too many stacks. And
- 46:31Speaker 4: on the other side of the ball, the Patriots of linebackers,
- 46:34Speaker 4: their safeties aren't great, and coverage their linebackers the worst
- 46:36Speaker 4: in the league. I didn't coverage like Splaine and now
- 46:40Speaker 4: like it's bad. That's bad news against Allen, who is
- 46:45Speaker 4: can probably just carve them up in the middle of
- 46:46Speaker 4: the field. So I don't know if it's so. I
- 46:51Speaker 4: think it's like between seven and ten. It feels probably
- 46:54Speaker 4: about right. But I'm monitoring their injury report, so I
- 46:57Speaker 4: don't have anything for you there. Unfortunately, do you have
- 46:59Speaker 4: anything to add Evan on that game.
- 47:01Speaker 5: I was just gonna say, I mean whiteouts to Roo
- 47:02Speaker 5: and one with Penn State.
- 47:03Speaker 6: So maybe you're worried if you're in Buffalo for this one,
- 47:06Speaker 6: but I'm sure there's been other white acts this season.
- 47:08Speaker 5: It's more of a joke.
- 47:09Speaker 6: Obviously, Stucky took it out words right out of my mouth.
- 47:12Speaker 6: I think the eight and a half is actually kind
- 47:14Speaker 6: of right on target. I think both teams, like Buffalo
- 47:16Speaker 6: has been lucky in New England's playing much better than expected.
- 47:19Speaker 6: I think it just they meet this week in a
- 47:21Speaker 6: game that's kind of god. I think it's a prop
- 47:23Speaker 6: game more or less.
- 47:25Speaker 1: Yeah, Henderson anytime touchdown Drake may has been awesome. When
- 47:28Speaker 1: he hasn't been Remy Henderson, Yeah, he's also played the Dolphins.
- 47:32Speaker 6: Of Hunter, Henry Hunter, Henry Henry not bad.
- 47:36Speaker 3: My thing with Henry though, is that like because of
- 47:39Speaker 3: the offensive line, the reason he hasn't been as active
- 47:42Speaker 3: is because he's been.
- 47:42Speaker 2: Expected to block so much. Otherwise he would be their
- 47:44Speaker 2: best receiver.
- 47:45Speaker 5: That's fair.
- 47:46Speaker 1: All right, let's recap it head to head this week
- 47:49Speaker 1: Vikings Browns. It's Kendra and I against Stucky and someone's
- 47:53Speaker 1: gonna have the gross bean toast if if they lose
- 47:56Speaker 1: this one, this.
- 47:58Speaker 4: Is win win for me. I either win or get
- 48:00Speaker 4: these now.
- 48:02Speaker 1: I want, Well, why don't we do the bean toast?
- 48:04Speaker 1: I think Stuck you should have to read the poem.
- 48:06Speaker 1: I think can we get Stucky reading a poem?
- 48:09Speaker 2: I feel like he'll be at writing poems though I don't.
- 48:12Speaker 4: I mean I could write it. I don't time to
- 48:14Speaker 4: write a poem.
- 48:17Speaker 1: Roses are red, you can do. I don't want Sucky
- 48:22Speaker 1: eating bean toast on the show. If he's happy about
- 48:24Speaker 1: eating bean toast, that's just that. I'm wearing you cutest
- 48:27Speaker 1: pumpkin in the pat shirt people.
- 48:29Speaker 4: When you guys are eating bean toast, I'll be eating
- 48:31Speaker 4: it with you, even after the Browns cover how to
- 48:33Speaker 4: Seat It for fun. But I'll write a poem for you.
- 48:36Speaker 1: Okay, Parlay this week Chargers money line against the Commanders,
- 48:41Speaker 1: Panthers money line against the Dolphins, and Jets money lines.
- 48:44Speaker 1: We got a money line special with the Chargers, Panthers
- 48:47Speaker 1: and Jets as our two kings and a Queen Parlay,
- 48:51Speaker 1: and we're gonna have a jag slumber party.
- 48:53Speaker 4: I'm so sick in the head that the one I'm
- 48:55Speaker 4: least confident about that is the Chargers. That's how sick
- 48:58Speaker 4: my mind is. I'm like, I like the Jets and Panthers,
- 49:00Speaker 4: but the Chargers offensive line like.
- 49:03Speaker 2: Can just say you hate me?
- 49:05Speaker 4: Want to hate my brain? That's my brain. We have
- 49:08Speaker 4: a moneyline parlay at the Jets, Chargers, and Panthers. The
- 49:12Speaker 4: Jets and Panthers who have one combined win, I'm like, okay,
- 49:17Speaker 4: I like those, but the Chargers, who all they do
- 49:19Speaker 4: is win under Harball their.
- 49:21Speaker 3: Favorite podcast with sad cats between the Panthers and the Jags.
- 49:28Speaker 2: My work here is finished.
- 49:30Speaker 4: How about this one?
- 49:31Speaker 5: Roses are red, violence a blue? Don't bet the Titans
- 49:33Speaker 5: will never come through.
- 49:36Speaker 2: You're doing his homework for you?
- 49:38Speaker 4: What the hell got to be about you? Guys?
- 49:40Speaker 1: So, but I like that Evans. Evans talent knows no bounds.
- 49:45Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, that's all I got.
- 49:47Speaker 1: That's well, it's not gonna get any better than that.
- 49:49Speaker 1: That's going to do it for today's episode special Thanks
- 49:51Speaker 1: to our producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, our pollet Evan Abrams.
- 49:55Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Sunday evening. A week five
- 49:58Speaker 1: recap catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
- 50:01Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in right here on the Favorites podcast
- 50:04Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours Cashy's tickets.
- 50:10Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
- 50:22Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
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