Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 2026 Week 3 Trade Values: Buys, Holds and Sells Decided on Usage

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2026 Week 3 Trade Values: Buys, Holds and Sells Decided on Usage · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Two weeks into the season is the best time to make trades all year because this is exactly when people start panicking off of two games and when the box score is kind of lying to them about a bunch of guys.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: I went through the usage, the route participation, the target share, expected fantasy points per route run, all of it.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got buys, I've got holds, I've got sells.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: A few of these buys are guys people are actively trying to get rid of right now.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: One of my sells is a guy coming off a two-touchdown game that I think you should be shopping today, and that's what we're doing today.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Buys, holds, sells.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get right into it.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: Lad McConkey is my first buy.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's talking about how bad this Chargers offense looks, how bad Herbert's been playing, and it's just been true.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: But this is exactly why this is a buying opportunity because the offense revolves around Ladd.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: He got hurt in week one, only ran about on 51% of dropbacks in that game, but he was targeted on 39% of the routes he did run, and he still led the team with a 27% target share on half a workload.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: He obviously wasn't himself in week two, but he should be a lot healthier this week.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: He's got a great schematic matchup against the Bills, who played too high safety coverage at the 10th highest rate this season so far.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's where Ladd has been really good.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: 10th in targets per route run against that coverage, 11th in yards per route run against two highs so far this season.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's also been top 10 in expected fantasy points and actual fantasy points per route run.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: So those routes are going to be going up.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'd be buying Ladd everywhere right now.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Matthew Golden.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'm buying him too.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: He's tied with Christian Watson with a 27% target share.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: His week two output was low enough that people kind of might not know what to do with him.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I do.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: The film looks good.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: The target distribution in Green Bay is extremely tight right now, especially with the Jaden Reed injury.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: So one or two more looks a week, and he separates from everyone else.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: And the Packers are running the sixth highest pace of play in the league.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: So the volume is gonna be there.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Same thing with Tucker Kraft.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: The route participation grew this past week up to 84% from 48% in week one.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: He was also in the field for 100% of overall snaps in week two.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And then obviously with a Jaden Reed injury, a lot of those short and intermediate targets are opening up right in Kraft's area of the field, right?
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: So the Packers, by the way, they've been sixth in pace, seventh in pass rate.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: This offense is throwing a lot more than people think.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd buy both these guys, and I'd buy Kraft before he turns into what we thought coming into the season, which was like a locked-in weekly starter at a position that isn't so easy to find right now.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: George Pickens is up next.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm buying him heavy.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's underperformed through two weeks.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think people are starting to maybe talk themselves out of him potentially repeating last season, which I get, but the talent hasn't gone anywhere.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Dallas has run the seventh fewest offensive plays in the league so far, compared to the fourth most plays at this time last year, and the most overall plays in 2025.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: So we haven't seen the real Cowboys offense yet, okay?
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: But on a per play basis, this offense is still legit.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Second in points per drive, fourth in EPA per play, and Pickens has the same 23% target share that he had last year.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: So with more competitive games coming the next few weeks, Ravens, Texans, Bucks will see more plays and the production should follow.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm buying him before he starts popping off, it's just a matter of time.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking of just a matter of time, Josh Downs, my boy.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: With the Alec Pierce injury now, he could be out for half of the season, maybe longer.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but Josh Downs is the wide receiver one in this Coles offense until he comes back or maybe for the entire season.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Downs is run the third most in-breaking routes in the NFL through two weeks, and that matters because those are the type of routes that are most correlated to fantasy points for wide receivers.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: He looked great in week two with an elite 30% target share, 91% route participation.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: He was a full-time player in both of his games so far.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: And you saw what Downs did on Monday night.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: If you saw the game, like he was nasty with it.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: He looked great out there.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: The Colts, you know, did go out and sign Darius Slayton as the Alec Pierce replacement, which I'll honestly is great news for Downs because Slayton isn't a threat to that primary role.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Downs is the guy I'm buying.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Then you got Zay Flowers, who I am buying heavy.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Like I might be buying him more than any other player right now.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: He's obviously hurt, so people aren't treating him like the league winner wide receiver that he is.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: And that's our opportunity here.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Before he got hurt, the target rate was insane, man.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: 55% targets per route run.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: He put up 26 fantasy points before halftime in week one.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is moving him all around the field.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's why, you know, just the deployment here is exactly what you want, man.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Like inside, outside, in motion.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: The deployment is just as legit as it gets.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if his manager is nervous about the hamstring injury or isn't viewing him like the you know top 12 wide receiver one that he is moving forward, go get him.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think he can be a league winner.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking of league winners, my boy Parker Washington, he's looking like a fantasy wide receiver one.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't mean because of the fantasy points that he scored so far, I mean the usage.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: 34% target share, that's second in the league behind JSN.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: He's moving all around the formation.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: 51% air yard share, okay?
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: That was that's fifth in the NFL, 4.31 yards per route run, which is actually insane.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's third in the NFL, 10th and first downs per route run, third in expected fantasy points per route run.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: All of it lines up.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Most people will just see him as like a nice little story.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: He's probably gonna, you know, you know, go down from here, but he's the clear top option in Jacksonville.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: He's a fantasy wide receiver one in actual fantasy points and underlying utilization.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm buying him from anyone who doesn't believe that he's a top 12 wide receiver rest of the season.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Debo Samuel.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: He's the last buy here.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: The 49ers receiver is obviously all banged up.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: And of all people, Debo's the healthiest of the bunch.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: His target rate is high, 31%.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's sixth in the NFL.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's top 16 in fantasy points per route run, sixth in expected fantasy points per route run, and his route participation at 59% so far has a lot of room to climb.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's going to climb given the injuries, right?
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: So, and you can probably get him for cheap, so it shouldn't be too hard to get him.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: All right, a few guys that I'm holding here, the first hold and the second hold, honestly, Colson Lovelin and Luther Burden.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna sell them.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: I I know that it's been frustrating.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: You know, for Colson Loveland, you know, one catch for three yards this season through two games is absolutely brutal, but you just can't sell him this low.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, the talent is not gonna disappear overnight.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: You know, the weather this past where he didn't help, not trying to make excuses here, but you know, I get if you want to take him out of your lineup for another tight end, I get it.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: Just don't sell.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, and the same story with Burden, except, you know, he at least led the Bears with a 24% target share this past week.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of that did come with Tyson Badgent at quarterback.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, he is in the concussion protocol now.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Tyson Badgant is, so that's not great.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: It might end up being Case Keenan for the Bears this week, so keep that in mind.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Just don't sell.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Don't sell yet.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Um, Dalton Kincaid, uh, don't even think about selling, okay?
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I know that he's been scoring a lot of fantasy points, and you might look at this and say, I might as well get out while it's good.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: I just wouldn't.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: He's leading the league and receiving yards and yards per route run among tight ends.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, he's a league winner.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Just just hold him, okay?
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: His route participation is all the way up, higher than it's ever been over the past couple years.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: The usage is amazing.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: He looks healthy.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Just don't overthink this one, okay?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Travis Etienne, I am oh I am gonna overthink this one.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, you know, listen, I'm not I'm gonna hold.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: His role is in serious flux.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: He fell all the way down to just 33% of the rush attempts with Camara back.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: He barely played you know half of the snaps in week two.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: You know, this is a terrible situation for him right now.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: I I think you know, you're not gonna get any sort of fair value if you try to trade him.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna wait it out.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna hold for now, and I'm just gonna hope that it gets to some point where you know there's some predictability here, okay?
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: As of right now, because uh of all of the usage issues, you gotta hold.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Jalen Coker, this is not a Fugazi, okay?
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: He's eighth in the NFL in target share at 29%.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I am not trying to sell him high or anything like that.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: He's moving all around the formation, he's third in the league in expected fantasy points per game.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: The usage says that this can easily stick.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we need, we desperately need Bryce Young, you know, to continue to do what he's doing right now because historically, over the years, and we have a large sample size of Bryce Young, he doesn't necessarily throw for a lot of yards, right?
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: Is this gonna change?
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: The Panthers are throwing it more than they typically do over the last few seasons with Dave Canales.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna hold Coker for now, not looking to sell high.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Tyler Warren's another one, right?
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: Touchdown in each game.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: He hasn't cleared 21 yards in either one.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I understand if you're thinking about selling because of the usage, but I wouldn't.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: With Allah Pierce out for a while, even more targets are up for grabs.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Warren showed last year that he's a strong target earner.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna hold tight.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now a few sells, Jake Ferguson is the first one.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: This is the one that I talked about at the top.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Two touchdowns this past week.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: Makes Ferguson look like a really attractive tight end, especially with all the underperformers and injuries at the position, like Loveland, Bowers, uh Fannon, Dallas Goddard.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but there are four Cowboys players out besides him that are above his 10% target share.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't want to just count on touchdowns and you know pray for that he reaches the end zone.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody in your league is desperate at tight end.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: I would sell him to that.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Rashi Rice, man, I am uh very worried about Rashi Rice, man.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: You take a closer look at his role, 8% target share in week one, 13% in week two, 11% for the season.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: He's not their primary guy right now.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: His their primary guy is Kenneth Walker, and even at receiver, like other guys are getting targets over him.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: His average depth of target is a bit further downfield than it's been uh over the past couple years.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: That could have a lot to do with the fact that they have a new offensive coordinator, Eric Biennemi, you know, who's now their OC, and you know, he said that they're trying to challenge him more.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Not really what I want to hear personally.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'd rather him be in his comfort zone.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I want.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but he's also not getting the screen work that we've been used to.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Kenneth Walker's usage in the passing game is eating into Rice's role as well.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, so if someone still wants to pay for like the old Rashi Rice or the name value, or they think he can get back to his wide receiver one ways, like I take that bet and I sell him for a pretty penny before it's too late.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: He needs a very specific role for him to come through given how he wins, and that's against zone coverage with space.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: We saw Denver basically play man coverage and turn him into a pumpkin.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, this is just a different offense now.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: So I think I want to move on if I drafted Rashi Rice.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: Stefan Diggs, uh, he's overperformed like crazy, man.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: 12th and fantasy points over expectation among all wide receivers.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Uh on pretty low route participation, only 59%.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: Jane Daniels gonna be out for a little bit.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: Um, listen, Diggs is gonna be fine.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Like you can start him whenever you want.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Still startable, you know, this week.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: But with the utilization not matching the fantasy points, like he's not actually a must-start every week.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: And even though, you know, his fantasy points suggest that he's somebody that you want to start, you gotta be careful, right?
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: You gotta look at the underlying utilization because that's where you know you you see what his role actually is.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: He's the perfect player to send to a wide receiver needy team that might overvalue him a little bit.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: Similar thing with Devontae Adams, like, you know, just an insane game on Monday night without Puka, eight for 195, two touchdowns.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know, utilization was amazing without Puka, and like obviously he could be this amazing player, you know, if Puka misses more time, but it doesn't seem like that's gonna happen.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: In week one with Puka, you the utilization wasn't great.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: Like, he wasn't the lone wide receiver near the goal line.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't have a high target share.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: But glad to know that he still has it, right?
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh honestly I'm perfectly fine holding him.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: But I will say if someone in your league views him very, very highly after this game, like the wide receiver one, the fantasy wide receiver one that he was last year, it might be a good opportunity to use him to improve your team overall.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna do it for this week.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: If this helped, subscribe to the channel.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: It helps a ton, and it's the best way to catch these every week.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you in the next one.