Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Meeting vs Crypto🚀Jerome Powell

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Fed Meeting vs Crypto🚀Jerome Powell · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome into the live stream. Today.
0:09
Speaker 2: We'll be breaking down, of course, the interest rate moves,
0:13
Speaker 2: get all of that, and of course we also will
0:15
Speaker 2: be doing a live stream of chair pal talking all
0:18
Speaker 2: about the interest rate cut and what it means to
0:21
Speaker 2: you guys in the market.
0:22
Speaker 1: My name is Baalbara. Welcome back in a tech path.
0:25
Speaker 2: In that case, a great place to get started in crypto,
0:28
Speaker 2: but also a great place to expand in crypto. Maybe
0:31
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0:33
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0:35
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0:37
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0:40
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0:43
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0:46
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0:49
Speaker 2: our link down below. It'll get you started. Let's go
0:51
Speaker 2: over a course to now. I'm using polymarket more so
0:55
Speaker 2: than even watch your guru, which is usually gives me
0:58
Speaker 2: the up to the minute. But right here is the
1:01
Speaker 2: FED decision is in and we are at a quarter
1:03
Speaker 2: basis points. As you can see, THEO point twenty five
1:07
Speaker 2: comes in. Nice bet on that too, by the way,
1:09
Speaker 2: but Anyway, the point is is that we are seeing
1:13
Speaker 2: some pretty good activity here. If you look at what
1:15
Speaker 2: could happen now for January. They've already started to pull
1:18
Speaker 2: some odds on this and right now in the lead
1:22
Speaker 2: is no change?
1:23
Speaker 1: So is it?
1:24
Speaker 2: And do we go flat next month? There's going to
1:27
Speaker 2: be some key things that Chair Palai. Obviously inflation will
1:33
Speaker 2: be a big factor. The other thing I think that
1:36
Speaker 2: we'll start to play into this is the year end
1:38
Speaker 2: retail sales numbers and also the jobs that we'll play
1:40
Speaker 2: into how the FED starts to look at January as
1:44
Speaker 2: a potential cut. We will be doing these livestreams for
1:47
Speaker 2: that comments of what you guys think could happen in
1:52
Speaker 2: the next FED meeting and why you think that might
1:54
Speaker 2: be the case, and don't forget drop some questions over
1:58
Speaker 2: on the chat. I will try to get to some
2:00
Speaker 2: of those. At the end, we'll take a look at
2:02
Speaker 2: some charts, all that good stuff for you guys as well.
2:05
Speaker 2: Further into this, I want to get into the COBEC analysis.
2:08
Speaker 2: Right here, US stock market now worth sixty four trillion,
2:12
Speaker 2: making it larger than all other global equity markets combined. Man,
2:16
Speaker 2: this market is overheated. Right now capitalization the last four years,
2:21
Speaker 2: that is significant when you look at the overall size
2:24
Speaker 2: and the same time period, the value of all other
2:27
Speaker 2: stock market has increased ten trillion, which is only nineteen percent.
2:31
Speaker 2: So some big factors here, guys. Right now, many people
2:34
Speaker 2: think is this an overheated traditional finance market right now?
2:39
Speaker 1: Many people say yes.
2:41
Speaker 2: There are many people looking at the one hundred and
2:43
Speaker 2: five to two one hundred.
2:44
Speaker 1: And eight k bitcoin.
2:47
Speaker 2: Are we nearing that top of bitcoin on this cycle?
2:51
Speaker 2: Have we really seen an all coin market? I mean,
2:53
Speaker 2: there's so many questions that are diving into the markets
2:57
Speaker 2: right now. One other thing that you can consider with
3:01
Speaker 2: this is the US now reflects a record seventy four
3:04
Speaker 2: percent of the world index, which is surpassing the nineteen seventies.
3:09
Speaker 2: Pretty big, you know, prior to the nineteen eighties, remember
3:11
Speaker 2: the dip we had in the nineteen eighties.
3:14
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys remember that.
3:15
Speaker 2: But the point is we had probably the highest inflation
3:18
Speaker 2: ever in the eighties, and that is where we could
3:21
Speaker 2: be nearing.
3:21
Speaker 1: So there's some key factor.
3:24
Speaker 2: Hechner on Andy Scheckner just this last week, and he
3:27
Speaker 2: was pointing to that very issue is that we were
3:30
Speaker 2: going to continue to see an accelerated inflation in twenty
3:33
Speaker 2: twenty five, and it would reroute the Fed's thinking of
3:36
Speaker 2: how this goes forward. And it's also going to put
3:38
Speaker 2: some pressure on the dollar too. So lot didn't that
3:42
Speaker 2: make sure? As I said, drop some questions and over
3:44
Speaker 2: on the side, why is a crypto market down today?
3:47
Speaker 2: Many people are looking to this really prior to the
3:50
Speaker 2: FED numbers and also some of the other data that's
3:53
Speaker 2: going to start printing out towards the end of this month.
3:55
Speaker 2: And do we get this late Santa route to watch
4:01
Speaker 2: a couple of points within this article. The market took
4:04
Speaker 2: a hit today, the total market cap dropping around three
4:06
Speaker 2: percent three point six five trillion holding. This was of
4:10
Speaker 2: course on the eighteenth, and I think that's somewhat in
4:14
Speaker 2: line with the volatility overall, but a total of four
4:18
Speaker 2: to nineteen million have been liquidated over the last twenty
4:20
Speaker 2: four That was again somewhat consistent with some of the
4:24
Speaker 2: other adjustments we've seen in the market before.
4:28
Speaker 1: Not too concerned about it right now, generally.
4:31
Speaker 2: Speaking, when the market sells off into the FOMC meeting,
4:35
Speaker 2: rallies after that's kind of where I think we may
4:38
Speaker 2: be flowing the Again, there's some key things that Chair
4:41
Speaker 2: Powell will address today, and if you guys are maybe
4:44
Speaker 2: brand new to our show, first of all, subscribe. Just
4:47
Speaker 2: hit the little subscribe button right now. And one of
4:50
Speaker 2: the things you want to do when you subscribe is
4:52
Speaker 2: hit that belt. That way you'll catch these live streams.
4:54
Speaker 2: So if you did catch this by a stream update
4:57
Speaker 2: or in the live feed over on YouTube, if you
5:00
Speaker 2: get that notification, you're going to notify it in the
5:01
Speaker 2: future of these live streams. But one thing that we
5:04
Speaker 2: do each of these FOMC meetings is we take an
5:07
Speaker 2: analysis of where Chair Pale and what Chair Pal says
5:11
Speaker 2: to the press corps. The reason that I do that
5:14
Speaker 2: is because a lot of times he gives a lot
5:17
Speaker 2: of hints at how he's going to treat some of
5:20
Speaker 2: the rest of the data that's coming in and also
5:24
Speaker 2: how the FED will possibly look at the next meeting. Now,
5:28
Speaker 2: what you'll hear most likely is we'll need more data.
5:31
Speaker 2: We'll assess that when we get going. It's those kind
5:33
Speaker 2: of things. But occasionally he will crack and say something
5:37
Speaker 2: because many of these scenarios are playing out months in
5:40
Speaker 2: advance versus what we're seeing here right now.
5:43
Speaker 1: I want to go to a.
5:44
Speaker 2: Clip real quick, because this gets into whether or not
5:48
Speaker 2: the actually get a bitcoin reserve. Everybody's been asking that question.
5:54
Speaker 2: Do you think we'll get one? Not think we'll get
5:57
Speaker 2: one when Trump takes office. Here's Nick Carr, and he
6:00
Speaker 2: talks about this. It may surprise you.
6:03
Speaker 1: Take a look.
6:04
Speaker 3: It depends what we mean by a strategic reserve. If
6:06
Speaker 3: we're talking about a stockpile and just holding the bitcoin
6:08
Speaker 3: the US government has already seized, unclear how much they
6:11
Speaker 3: have right now, they might be selling off some of
6:13
Speaker 3: those coins. I think we can reasonably expect that to happen.
6:16
Speaker 3: Trump's been clear on that front. If we're talking about
6:19
Speaker 3: Cynthia Lomas's bill buying a million bitcoins over five years
6:24
Speaker 3: acquire more bitcoins for the US government, or even potentially
6:29
Speaker 3: moving away from the existing dollar system to a bitcoin
6:32
Speaker 3: back system, I don't think that's likely. I don't see
6:35
Speaker 3: support in Congress for that. You know, Congress would have
6:40
Speaker 3: believe that it would be prudent, frankly, for the US
6:42
Speaker 3: government to signal a move away from the dollar system,
6:46
Speaker 3: move to a commodity standard based on bitcoin. Any other
6:49
Speaker 3: nation state, it makes sense for them to acquire bitcoin,
6:52
Speaker 3: and they are, you know, Bhutan, l Salvador. That's fine.
6:55
Speaker 3: The US is the issue of the global reserve currency.
6:58
Speaker 3: We shouldn't do something that would into question our own solvency,
7:04
Speaker 3: all right.
7:04
Speaker 2: So a couple of points that Nick made there is
7:07
Speaker 2: the scenario that it does weeken the dollar. Many would
7:10
Speaker 2: say that it weakens the dollar. And we've had this
7:12
Speaker 2: question before come up as to when you look at
7:16
Speaker 2: how many other countries work within the bond business buying
7:20
Speaker 2: you as treasuries, and if you look at a weakening dollar,
7:24
Speaker 2: well do they simply say, okay, well we'll just take
7:27
Speaker 2: your bitcoin instead. We'll go for that in terms of
7:30
Speaker 2: the asset. So I think to a certain extent it
7:33
Speaker 2: can help the dollar. But I think it's the way
7:36
Speaker 2: in which this is done. If it's just used as
7:38
Speaker 2: a monetary kind of token, in the sense of, yeah,
7:42
Speaker 2: we got.
7:43
Speaker 1: A reserve and we're going to hold that.
7:45
Speaker 2: You know, it's more of a narrative than it is
7:47
Speaker 2: I think a functional scenario that plays out within this.
7:50
Speaker 2: But he is right many of the countries that do
7:54
Speaker 2: use it as a true strategic reserve because of their
7:57
Speaker 2: currency being so weak, makes perfect sense.
8:01
Speaker 1: I want to go further into this. Now.
8:02
Speaker 2: This is Matthew Siegel coming over from Van k and
8:06
Speaker 2: he talks, hey, this is a loser thing. Should the government,
8:09
Speaker 2: Should the US government avoiding signals of fiscal restraint? Then yeah,
8:12
Speaker 2: that's the point he's getting. In fact, why pretend it all.
8:15
Speaker 2: Let's just print trillions more and see where that gets us.
8:17
Speaker 2: Because that's the point that many people say, is that
8:20
Speaker 2: if we continue to go the route of just printing
8:22
Speaker 2: money versus getting an appreciating asset such as bitcoin or gold,
8:28
Speaker 2: that is the factor that plays out into this. So
8:30
Speaker 2: many people would argue that we will go live with
8:33
Speaker 2: share pal here at two thirty, and that typically is
8:37
Speaker 2: the time in which we'll take a look at again
8:40
Speaker 2: Powell's comments to the press Corps and get into that.
8:43
Speaker 2: What we are tracking right now today, XRP is up slightly,
8:48
Speaker 2: down slightly right now, but up on the week, which
8:51
Speaker 2: has been a pretty good run with the Ripple stable
8:53
Speaker 2: coin being launched yesterday and going hot. So kind of
8:57
Speaker 2: curious if you guys had a chance to get an
8:59
Speaker 2: r l USD in your wallets anywhere. I think Uphold
9:03
Speaker 2: has been one of the launch partners, one of our
9:05
Speaker 2: advertisers kind of curious. Let me know if you guys
9:09
Speaker 2: have done it, and you know how was that experience
9:12
Speaker 2: in getting it done? That will be one to watch.
9:14
Speaker 2: Of course, Bitcoin holding the one to three to one
9:18
Speaker 2: oh five. I am on the daily chart. Let me
9:21
Speaker 2: or actually let me jump over to the one minute.
9:23
Speaker 2: We'll kind of start taking a look at how things
9:26
Speaker 2: are transitioning through the FOMC meeting itself.
9:31
Speaker 1: We'll take a look at that.
9:32
Speaker 2: And of course what else do we have Solana dipping
9:36
Speaker 2: down to two sixteen many people looking at this, Is
9:39
Speaker 2: this a buy the dip opportunity on Solana? With what's
9:42
Speaker 2: going on? Avalanche also dipping into the forty six dollars range.
9:45
Speaker 2: We haven't seen that in a bit, so maybe we
9:48
Speaker 2: are getting into one of those right before the Santa
9:52
Speaker 2: Rally kind of adjustments right now on the market could
9:56
Speaker 2: be the case. Now, I want to go further into
9:58
Speaker 2: this because this is a content inuing the narrative of well,
10:03
Speaker 2: if you have a bitcoin reserve or if you don't
10:06
Speaker 2: have a bitcoin reserve, how does bitcoin react?
10:09
Speaker 1: Which way would it go?
10:10
Speaker 3: Take a look, Yeah, I think that's a risk factor
10:14
Speaker 3: for sure. You know, the hardest thing about being a
10:16
Speaker 3: bitcoiner is you're in the trade with a lot of
10:18
Speaker 3: delusional people, right, And whether it's the stock to flow
10:22
Speaker 3: theory or now the strategic reserve, which I don't think
10:25
Speaker 3: is likely to happen, and I think there is a
10:27
Speaker 3: bit of a risk that these elements are being priced in.
10:30
Speaker 3: Trump wants bitcoin to go up to vindicate his pro
10:34
Speaker 3: bitcoin stance. You know, he's a market's driven guy. The
10:38
Speaker 3: rally I think does have legs. I think it has
10:40
Speaker 3: fundamental soundness to it. But at the same time, we
10:42
Speaker 3: should be cautious of getting overly bullish about things like
10:46
Speaker 3: the reserve, all.
10:49
Speaker 2: Right, so very cautious on the reserve, and basically if
10:54
Speaker 2: we don't get it, he's saying that we could see
10:56
Speaker 2: an adjustment here on the market itself. Arthur Hayes also
10:59
Speaker 2: kind of in that camp. He says bitcoin reserve is unlikely,
11:02
Speaker 2: warns of a bitcoin selloff under Trump going in. Many
11:06
Speaker 2: people kind of say this as well to sell the
11:07
Speaker 2: news kind of scenario.
11:09
Speaker 1: Then there's the contrarian side of.
11:11
Speaker 2: This that says, no, this is just the beginning, So
11:13
Speaker 2: let me know where you guys stand on this. He
11:15
Speaker 2: believes Trump will face a significant political challenge.
11:19
Speaker 1: I don't know.
11:20
Speaker 2: You know, we just had a congressman on today. We're
11:23
Speaker 2: going to be publishing the video a little later, but
11:26
Speaker 2: he said some interesting things that even I was a
11:29
Speaker 2: bit very positive to the market in general for crypto,
11:34
Speaker 2: but it did surprise me on some of their assessment
11:37
Speaker 2: and how much education is still in the process at
11:39
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. So maybe he will face some political challenges,
11:43
Speaker 2: but if he gets into a position where he's got
11:45
Speaker 2: a bipartisan support, then I don't know, it's almost impossible
11:49
Speaker 2: for Trump to appease his base sufficiently to prevent Democrats
11:51
Speaker 2: from retaking both legislative bodies in twenty twenty six. That'll
11:55
Speaker 2: be the factor again again. I think this will be
11:57
Speaker 2: a factor where fair Shake will play into this. It
12:00
Speaker 2: has already had a massive effect on what turned out
12:05
Speaker 2: right now. Now the Democrats have been pretty much licking
12:08
Speaker 2: their wounds in the sense of how to adjust to
12:11
Speaker 2: the market, and when I see the market, the voters
12:14
Speaker 2: to kind of deal with that.
12:15
Speaker 1: But I think.
12:15
Speaker 2: People are they're a little impatient right now, and I
12:18
Speaker 2: would agree with Arthur's assessment here, and in many cases,
12:22
Speaker 2: people are very desperate. So because of the economy. If
12:25
Speaker 2: we do see inflation continue, you're going to hear on
12:28
Speaker 2: this today. If we do see inflation continuing to accelerate,
12:33
Speaker 2: it could be another factor that gets that reversal that
12:37
Speaker 2: we've seen before, and those have not been pretty in
12:41
Speaker 2: the markets. So this is what we're watching for right now.
12:44
Speaker 2: So big deals ahead. I do see a lot of
12:47
Speaker 2: questions coming in and a couple of statements one coming
12:51
Speaker 2: in kind of interesting, so drop them in over on
12:53
Speaker 2: the chat. I will try to get to those. We'll
12:56
Speaker 2: take some of those maybe in the filler between going
12:59
Speaker 2: over to chair Power.
13:00
Speaker 1: Well just in.
13:00
Speaker 2: Blackrock also released a three minute educational video explaining what
13:04
Speaker 2: bitcoin is now.
13:06
Speaker 1: Why is that?
13:07
Speaker 2: Well, you think about Blackrock and what they're trying to
13:10
Speaker 2: do with the traditional investor, and you have to understand
13:14
Speaker 2: that even just last week, I think it was last
13:16
Speaker 2: week that we started to see Blackrock up the ante
13:20
Speaker 2: in terms of how much exposure your portfolio should have
13:23
Speaker 2: to bitcoin. That went from what was one percent now
13:27
Speaker 2: to two percent, So that's double the exposure but still
13:30
Speaker 2: only two percent. But the point I think that Blackrock
13:32
Speaker 2: is trying to make is to get traditional investors comfortable
13:37
Speaker 2: with where bitcoin is both on the ETF but also
13:40
Speaker 2: of the technology. And the reason I think that is
13:43
Speaker 2: going to be helpful in the market is because of
13:47
Speaker 2: the ether ETF now and I think that's where you're
13:50
Speaker 2: going to see some interesting things happen. So BlackRock's gold
13:54
Speaker 2: ETF took twenty years to reach thirty three billion a UM.
13:58
Speaker 2: It took their Bitcoin ETF lets the year. So this
14:01
Speaker 2: is the other point they're going to get to is that, well,
14:04
Speaker 2: this is what happened with the bitcoin ETF.
14:06
Speaker 1: Look at the performance here. How could you deny that.
14:09
Speaker 2: You're a traditional investor, you're looking at charts, You're looking
14:12
Speaker 2: at market I won't say manipulation, but you're looking at
14:16
Speaker 2: market impact and market structure in terms of how these
14:21
Speaker 2: charts and how these investments go. And then you will
14:24
Speaker 2: probably say, well, all right, well if bitcoins doing this,
14:27
Speaker 2: did we miss it?
14:27
Speaker 1: And what is next?
14:28
Speaker 2: Well, that's where I think eth will play into it
14:31
Speaker 2: for sure. Here's Jeremy Lair going in on this as well,
14:35
Speaker 2: because and this will all come together here in a second.
14:38
Speaker 2: He's going to talk a little bit more about the
14:40
Speaker 2: new administration and how this plays into bitcoin. But there's
14:43
Speaker 2: a reason for this.
14:44
Speaker 4: Take a look, so you have a less hostile and
14:47
Speaker 4: maybe even embracing administration. But what does that mean in
14:50
Speaker 4: terms of new regulations, things that could be done tomorrow
14:54
Speaker 4: that couldn't have been done yesterday.
14:56
Speaker 5: Well, I think I'll start with stable coins, which is
14:59
Speaker 5: the There is not yet a federal law that defines
15:03
Speaker 5: dollars stable coins as legal electronic money in the US
15:07
Speaker 5: financial system. Once we have that, then every company in
15:11
Speaker 5: the world, every public corporation, every financial institution all around
15:15
Speaker 5: the world will be able to treat this as digital cash.
15:18
Speaker 6: But what's the terminal value of bitcoin taking into account
15:23
Speaker 6: twenty one million, Well, it can.
15:25
Speaker 5: Be you know, if you look at kind of M one,
15:28
Speaker 5: M two aggregates and you sort of say, and then
15:30
Speaker 5: you take gold or other things in addition, you know,
15:32
Speaker 5: that's like one hundred and twenty trillion dollars of value.
15:36
Speaker 7: And what does that deserve?
15:37
Speaker 5: What could be I think the question to me would
15:41
Speaker 5: be if there's a reduction in the number of fiat
15:44
Speaker 5: currencies in the world, and more and more fiat currencies
15:48
Speaker 5: also have some component that is reserved against, you know,
15:54
Speaker 5: a digital gold type of instrument, that monetary base could
15:57
Speaker 5: be quite.
15:58
Speaker 7: Dramatically higher can you just give me a number.
16:03
Speaker 5: You know I haven't done the math.
16:05
Speaker 2: Well let's go with the number. Just in one point
16:08
Speaker 2: five trillion from Deutsche Bank coming in. They're building on
16:12
Speaker 2: an L two blockchain on Ether and that I think
16:15
Speaker 2: will be part of this. And when you look at
16:17
Speaker 2: the overall financial system and the potential of these stable coins,
16:22
Speaker 2: you have to throw into the factor two big factors
16:25
Speaker 2: going forward. One is Ripple USD and the other is
16:30
Speaker 2: MECA and Tether. And if you guys are a brand
16:33
Speaker 2: new to crypto, for first I want you to do
16:35
Speaker 2: is do a little bit of research of how Tether's
16:37
Speaker 2: being impacted by MECA. Go check that out. We've done
16:39
Speaker 2: a lot of videos, so go check those out and
16:42
Speaker 2: then understand really the impact of what our LUSD is
16:46
Speaker 2: going to be. And we've just done a couple of
16:48
Speaker 2: videos here recently. Go back to the last two and
16:51
Speaker 2: take a look at where we were going, especially around
16:54
Speaker 2: real world assets, because that will be a factor that
16:57
Speaker 2: a lot of people are missing on what this is
16:59
Speaker 2: going to like in the area four x RWA real
17:03
Speaker 2: world assets. What we'll see and this is really the
17:06
Speaker 2: first time and Ripple will get exposed to a market
17:09
Speaker 2: I think is going to be huge going forward. So
17:12
Speaker 2: it's going to be an interesting race right now between
17:14
Speaker 2: I think you are l USD where that's going to
17:16
Speaker 2: be exposed USDC obviously we've already seen the exposure and
17:21
Speaker 2: the potential within that. We will be going live with
17:24
Speaker 2: shair Pal here in just a little bit. Just as
17:26
Speaker 2: a reminder again, if you guys are not I know
17:28
Speaker 2: there's several thousands of you watching right now live, make
17:32
Speaker 2: sure and subscribe, okay, So that does help us. And also,
17:36
Speaker 2: by the way, we're going to we're closing on a
17:38
Speaker 2: one million subscribers. I don't know if it's going to
17:40
Speaker 2: happen this month, but it might, but it will help
17:43
Speaker 2: if you guys hit the subscribe button. And the cool
17:45
Speaker 2: thing is is you're gonna get notified when we do
17:48
Speaker 2: these lives. We haven't been going live as much, so
17:50
Speaker 2: when we do live, they're they're important and they could
17:52
Speaker 2: have major market impacts. So that's when you want to
17:54
Speaker 2: get notifications, So do that at the bare Minium Blackrock. Also,
18:00
Speaker 2: if you look at I shares, the eth ETF now
18:03
Speaker 2: holding over one million in eight one million eth over
18:07
Speaker 2: four billion over in the market cap. Look at the
18:10
Speaker 2: size of this right now. I'm gonna zoom in on
18:12
Speaker 2: this right now just to give you guys a little
18:14
Speaker 2: bit of a closer look at this. This is pretty
18:17
Speaker 2: significant because remember Eth was a very slow start at
18:21
Speaker 2: the ETF was a very slow start, and now we're
18:24
Speaker 2: trading at around thirty eight hundred. We clipped over forty
18:27
Speaker 2: one hundred late last week. I think Eth is in
18:31
Speaker 2: for its final run of getting to its all time high.
18:34
Speaker 2: The real question is where does the market go when
18:38
Speaker 2: Eth hits forty eight hundred. That's its recent market high.
18:42
Speaker 2: And I think a lot of people are looking at
18:44
Speaker 2: this because of how it affects the all coin market,
18:47
Speaker 2: which I know many of you guys follow very closely,
18:50
Speaker 2: So for sure keep an eye on where Eth is
18:54
Speaker 2: going further into here. The last three FOMC meetings, Bitcoin
18:58
Speaker 2: dominance dropped and all coins rebounded, So that's really kind
19:03
Speaker 2: of the question right now, do you guys think that
19:05
Speaker 2: this will be a rebound for some of these all
19:07
Speaker 2: coins because it has been a little softer on major
19:09
Speaker 2: assets such as Solana, Avalanche, Cardano Mini that have been
19:14
Speaker 2: on a slide over the last ten days. So let
19:18
Speaker 2: me know what you guys think, and then we'll get
19:20
Speaker 2: into a couple of things. I'm going to look at
19:22
Speaker 2: Avalanche right now, and this is the slide I'm talking
19:25
Speaker 2: about now.
19:25
Speaker 1: Granted we're in.
19:26
Speaker 2: The actually you know what, I'm going to go to
19:28
Speaker 2: the daily for you guys and just to give you
19:30
Speaker 2: a quick rundown on where some of these tokens have
19:33
Speaker 2: been moving. So these are the slides that I'm talking about.
19:36
Speaker 2: Really after this reversal that we saw on the twelfth
19:39
Speaker 2: of December where Avalanche hit fifty three again, this is
19:43
Speaker 2: what we've been looking at, so almost a week of
19:45
Speaker 2: red and let me know what you guys think on that,
19:48
Speaker 2: and we'll get into some questions here before we go live.
19:50
Speaker 1: We've got a few minutes before.
19:52
Speaker 2: We go live with shair Pal. But there's Avalanche, the
19:56
Speaker 2: other one you guys are asking about. Swee has been
19:59
Speaker 2: an absolute monster here recently. And if you look at
20:03
Speaker 2: the entry points on these these sentiment numbers back down
20:06
Speaker 2: here in what was a buck eighty seven back in
20:09
Speaker 2: November the fifth, and where were we what was that
20:13
Speaker 2: gain on that from the last time we did that chart,
20:16
Speaker 2: So nice one fifty three, one hundred and fifty three percent.
20:19
Speaker 2: Any of you guys hold sweet. Let me know in
20:21
Speaker 2: the comments down below. I see some of you guys,
20:22
Speaker 2: Ricky Ricardo Crypto coming in with sweet for sure. XRP
20:29
Speaker 2: is the next Bitcoin, says Jay and Panajh says we're
20:34
Speaker 2: going to see an all coin sell off right here
20:36
Speaker 2: in December. So do you guys agree with that? Do
20:38
Speaker 2: you think we'll see an all coin sell off? Because
20:40
Speaker 2: that would be a significant alteration to previous cycles, And
20:44
Speaker 2: if you look at the four year cycle, twenty five
20:47
Speaker 2: will be the four year cycle window, and you kind
20:50
Speaker 2: of compare to what happened in twenty twenty one. We
20:53
Speaker 2: saw that early run up in the spring, and then
20:56
Speaker 2: we saw a reversal in the summer, and then of
20:59
Speaker 2: course Bitcoin it's all time high, and most of the
21:02
Speaker 2: all coins also made their runs in the fall around
21:06
Speaker 2: November October.
21:08
Speaker 1: Could we see that.
21:09
Speaker 2: Many people still pointing toward the end of next year,
21:11
Speaker 2: but a lot of people say that it is a
21:14
Speaker 2: sell in May and go away time again coming up.
21:17
Speaker 2: So do you guys think that's the case. Is that
21:19
Speaker 2: going to happen this cycle?
21:21
Speaker 1: Around?
21:22
Speaker 2: A lot of people looking at that. Listen, agent Peanut,
21:26
Speaker 2: when is the salana etf well, I can tell you this.
21:29
Speaker 2: We're most likely going to see a lot of crypto
21:32
Speaker 2: assets starting to fold into potential ETFs. Next year, we
21:38
Speaker 2: could see everything. I think Eric balshunis, who's the ETF
21:42
Speaker 2: analyst for Bloomberg, probably I would say one of the
21:44
Speaker 2: best out there. He's pointing at light Coin. We've looked
21:48
Speaker 2: at XRP, Solana. Of course, we may see a rap
21:51
Speaker 2: on Bitcoin and Ether. There's a lot that will happen.
21:54
Speaker 2: I think this is again just more exposure to the
21:57
Speaker 2: market in general.
21:59
Speaker 1: For sure.
22:00
Speaker 2: Let's see what do we have you Boro says Poka
22:02
Speaker 2: Dot King twenty twenty five is going to be a
22:04
Speaker 2: big one. Listen, Poko Doon could be a sleeper because
22:08
Speaker 2: of the very simple reason of TikTok. And if you
22:11
Speaker 2: don't know what I'm talking about there, go watch our
22:13
Speaker 2: TikTok videos about Polka dot and why it is so big.
22:18
Speaker 2: There is a big deal there that could be happening,
22:21
Speaker 2: and we are very close to that happening. January nineteenth
22:24
Speaker 2: is the day in which TikTok will be removed from
22:28
Speaker 2: app stores. So if you have a phone out there
22:31
Speaker 2: by the way, if you just go put TikTok on
22:33
Speaker 2: all your phones, so at least you don't lose access
22:36
Speaker 2: to it eth at least ten k, says Mike Claremont.
22:41
Speaker 1: I like that. That's a big number. Ten k.
22:44
Speaker 2: That would be a big reversal on ETH holding at
22:47
Speaker 2: ten k, that would be a huge number there. Now
22:51
Speaker 2: there is signs yeat that we could go there, but
22:54
Speaker 2: I think many people have been looking at around that
22:56
Speaker 2: eighty two to eighty five mark. All Right, the Feutre
23:00
Speaker 2: boy says, XRP all time high in twenty twenty four,
23:04
Speaker 2: So you're thinking the three dollar number is in the cards.
23:07
Speaker 2: I like that, Cornelia says, any update on Over, We
23:10
Speaker 2: just did a big over video and connection to where
23:14
Speaker 2: over could be playing in to some of some very
23:18
Speaker 2: interesting innovations. So again we cover a lot of this
23:20
Speaker 2: deep dive research guys on an ongoing basis here on
23:24
Speaker 2: the show. So if you're not subscribed, this is the
23:26
Speaker 2: time to do it. Get in on it. XRP will
23:29
Speaker 2: pass Salana and will be the number one token. I'm
23:34
Speaker 2: assuming you mean outside of wait a minute, did these
23:39
Speaker 2: say Salona on that one?
23:41
Speaker 1: There?
23:41
Speaker 2: It's already passed Salana. Maybe you're thinking something else, but
23:45
Speaker 2: many people say XRP could possibly go right past ethereum
23:49
Speaker 2: into the number two position. Remember at one time XRP
23:52
Speaker 2: was the number two token out there, so just remember,
23:56
Speaker 2: all right, So no, come on, Mike Claremont, I do
23:59
Speaker 2: not think that ETH will be a forty eight hundred
24:02
Speaker 2: will be the top.
24:03
Speaker 1: That's the last top of ETH. That's the time in
24:07
Speaker 1: which I think we'll start to see some things.
24:09
Speaker 2: There's chair Pal. He's getting ready to come in the door. He'll,
24:13
Speaker 2: of course start taking some questions here in a few moments.
24:16
Speaker 2: Those to two dollars, Well, Omar, you are way out
24:18
Speaker 2: there on the edge on that one. I mean, who
24:20
Speaker 2: knows this market could get crazy?
24:23
Speaker 1: Sweet is a big one.
24:24
Speaker 2: Would people sell by the end of December for a
24:26
Speaker 2: tax situation? Make zero sense? No, you'd want to carry
24:28
Speaker 2: that through. Here we go on the live with care
24:31
Speaker 2: Pal coming in.
24:31
Speaker 1: Let's go to that.
24:37
Speaker 7: Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on
24:42
Speaker 7: achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable
24:45
Speaker 7: prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy
24:49
Speaker 7: is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our
24:53
Speaker 7: goals over the past two years. The labor market has
24:56
Speaker 7: cooled from its formerly overheated state and remain solid. Inflation
25:01
Speaker 7: has moved much closer to our two percent longer run goal.
25:06
Speaker 7: We're committed to maintaining our economy strength by supporting maximum
25:10
Speaker 7: employment and returning inflation to our two percent goal. To
25:14
Speaker 7: that end, today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to
25:16
Speaker 7: take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint
25:20
Speaker 7: by lowering our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point.
25:25
Speaker 7: We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
25:28
Speaker 7: I'll have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly
25:31
Speaker 7: reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggested that economic activity has
25:38
Speaker 7: continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at
25:43
Speaker 7: an annual rate of two point eight percent in the
25:45
Speaker 7: third quarter, about the same pace as in the second quarter.
25:49
Speaker 7: Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in
25:53
Speaker 7: equipment and intangibles as straintment. In contrast, activity in the
25:58
Speaker 7: housing sector has been Overall, Improving supply conditions have supported
26:04
Speaker 7: the strong performance of the US economy over the past year.
26:08
Speaker 7: In our summary of economic projections, committee participants generally expect
26:12
Speaker 7: GDP growth to remain solid, with a median projection of
26:15
Speaker 7: about two percent over the next few years. In the
26:20
Speaker 7: labor market, conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains have slowed
26:24
Speaker 7: from earlier in the year, averaging one hundred and seventy
26:27
Speaker 7: three thousand per month over the past three months. The
26:31
Speaker 7: unemployment rate is higher than it was a year ago,
26:34
Speaker 7: but at four point two percent in November, it has
26:36
Speaker 7: remained low. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year,
26:41
Speaker 7: and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed. Overall, a
26:45
Speaker 7: broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labour
26:49
Speaker 7: market are now less tight than in twenty nineteen. The
26:54
Speaker 7: labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.
27:00
Speaker 7: Projection for the unemployment rate in the sp is four
27:02
Speaker 7: point two percent at the end of this year and
27:05
Speaker 7: four point three percent over the next few years. Inflation
27:10
Speaker 7: has eased significantly over the past two years, but remains
27:14
Speaker 7: somewhat elevated relative to our two percent longer run goal.
27:18
Speaker 7: Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data
27:22
Speaker 7: indicate that total PCE prices rose two point five percent
27:26
Speaker 7: over the twelve months ending in November, and that excluding
27:30
Speaker 7: the volatile food and energy categories, core pce prices rose
27:34
Speaker 7: two point eight percent. Longer term inflation expectations appear to
27:38
Speaker 7: remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of
27:41
Speaker 7: surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures
27:46
Speaker 7: from financial markets. The median projection in the SEP for
27:50
Speaker 7: total PCEE inflation is two point four percent this year
27:54
Speaker 7: and two point five percent next year, somewhat higher than
27:57
Speaker 7: projected in September. Thereafter, the median projection falls to our
28:02
Speaker 7: two percent objective. Our monetary policy actions are guided by
28:08
Speaker 7: our dual mandate to promote maximum employment, employment, and stable
28:11
Speaker 7: prices for the American people. We see the risks to
28:15
Speaker 7: achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance,
28:19
Speaker 7: and we are attentive to the risks on both sides
28:22
Speaker 7: of our mandate. At today's meeting, the Committee decided to
28:26
Speaker 7: lower the target range for the federal funds rate by
28:28
Speaker 7: a quarter percentage point to foreign a quarter to four
28:30
Speaker 7: and a half percent. We've been moving policy toward a
28:34
Speaker 7: more neutral setting in order to maintain the strength of
28:36
Speaker 7: the economy and the labor market while establishing further progress
28:40
Speaker 7: and sorry enabling further progress on inflation with today's action,
28:45
Speaker 7: we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage
28:48
Speaker 7: point from its peak, and our policy stance is now
28:51
Speaker 7: significantly less restrictive. We can therefore be more cautious as
28:56
Speaker 7: we consider further adjustments to our policy rate. We know
29:01
Speaker 7: that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could
29:04
Speaker 7: hinder progress on inflation at reducing policy restraint too slowly
29:09
Speaker 7: or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.
29:15
Speaker 7: In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to
29:18
Speaker 7: the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee
29:21
Speaker 7: will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance
29:24
Speaker 7: of risks we're not on any preset course. In our
29:29
Speaker 7: summary of economic projections, FOMC participants wrote down their individual
29:33
Speaker 7: assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate
29:36
Speaker 7: based on what each participant judges to me the most
29:40
Speaker 7: likely scenario going forward. The median participant projects that the
29:45
Speaker 7: appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be three
29:48
Speaker 7: point nine percent at the end of next year and
29:51
Speaker 7: three point four percent at the end of twenty twenty six.
29:55
Speaker 7: These median projections are somewhat higher than in September, consistent
29:58
Speaker 7: with the firmer inflation per These projections, however, are not
30:03
Speaker 7: a committee plan or decision. As the economy evolves, monetary
30:09
Speaker 7: policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum
30:11
Speaker 7: employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong
30:16
Speaker 7: and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward two percent,
30:20
Speaker 7: we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the
30:24
Speaker 7: labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to
30:27
Speaker 7: fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy more quickly.
30:31
Speaker 7: Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and
30:34
Speaker 7: uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our
30:38
Speaker 7: dual mandate. On a technical note, we lowered the offering
30:42
Speaker 7: rate on our overnight reverse repo facility to align it
30:46
Speaker 7: with the bottom of the target range for the Federal
30:48
Speaker 7: funds rate its typical configuration. Technical adjustments of this kind
30:52
Speaker 7: have no bearing on the stance of monetary policy. The
30:56
Speaker 7: Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum
31:00
Speaker 7: employment and stable prices. We remain committed to support in
31:04
Speaker 7: maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our two percent goal,
31:09
Speaker 7: and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success
31:13
Speaker 7: in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We
31:17
Speaker 7: understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across
31:21
Speaker 7: the country. Everything we do is in service to our
31:24
Speaker 7: public mission we at the FED. We'll do everything we
31:27
Speaker 7: can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
31:31
Speaker 7: Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
31:35
Speaker 6: Gina genus my Liqui with the New York Times, thank
31:41
Speaker 6: you for taking our questions.
31:44
Speaker 1: All right, So there's some big things he said there,
31:46
Speaker 1: So we'll get to that in a minute. But stay too.
31:48
Speaker 6: Think it's appropriate to cut rates, am all, in twenty
31:50
Speaker 6: twenty five if inflation is expected to remain firm throughout
31:54
Speaker 6: the year, and what would you expect at this point
31:57
Speaker 6: the timing might look like would January potentially be possible
32:01
Speaker 6: or does it pause next month seem more likely?
32:05
Speaker 7: Well, so let me start by saying why we cut
32:08
Speaker 7: today and then move to twenty twenty five. So I
32:10
Speaker 7: would say today was a closer call, but we decided
32:15
Speaker 7: it was the right call because we thought it was
32:18
Speaker 7: the best decision to foster achievement of both of our goals,
32:22
Speaker 7: maximum employment and price stability. We see the risks as
32:25
Speaker 7: two sided moving too slowly and needlessly undermine economic activity
32:29
Speaker 7: in the labor market, or move too quickly and needlessly
32:32
Speaker 7: undermine our progress on inflation. So we're trying to steer
32:35
Speaker 7: between those two risks, and on balance, we decided to
32:38
Speaker 7: go ahead with a further cut. And I'll give you
32:40
Speaker 7: some details on why. Downside risks of the labor market
32:43
Speaker 7: do appear to have diminished. But the labor market is
32:46
Speaker 7: now looser than pre pandemic, and it's clearly still cooling
32:49
Speaker 7: further so far in a gradual and orderly way. We
32:53
Speaker 7: don't think we need further cooling in the labor market
32:56
Speaker 7: to get inflation down to two percent. Job creation is
32:59
Speaker 7: now well below the level or certainly below the level
33:02
Speaker 7: that would hold unemployment constant. The job finding rate is
33:06
Speaker 7: low and declining, and other measures such as surveys of
33:09
Speaker 7: workers and businesses, quits, things like that broadly show a
33:14
Speaker 7: much cooler labor market than there was that we had
33:17
Speaker 7: in twenty nineteen. It's still quite gradually cooling, so we
33:21
Speaker 7: keep an eye on that inflation. We see that story
33:24
Speaker 7: as still broadly on track. And I'll tell you why
33:27
Speaker 7: we've made a great deal of progress. Twelve month core inflation,
33:30
Speaker 7: as I mentioned, through November is estimated at two point
33:33
Speaker 7: eight percent, down from a high of five point six percent.
33:37
Speaker 7: But twelve month inflation has actually been moving sideways as
33:40
Speaker 7: we are lapping the very low readings of late last year.
33:44
Speaker 7: Housing services inflation actually is steadily coming down now, albeit
33:48
Speaker 7: at a slower pace than we might like. But it
33:49
Speaker 7: has now come down substantially and is making progress slower
33:55
Speaker 7: than hoped, And we've had recent high readings from non
33:58
Speaker 7: market services and somepiness for good. So I'll just say so,
34:03
Speaker 7: remember that we coupled this decision today with the extent
34:06
Speaker 7: and timing language in the post meeting statement that signals
34:09
Speaker 7: that we are at or near a point at which
34:11
Speaker 7: it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments.
34:14
Speaker 7: You ask about twenty twenty five, I think that the
34:20
Speaker 7: slower pace of cuts for next year really reflects both
34:26
Speaker 7: the higher inflation readings we've had this year and the
34:29
Speaker 7: expectation inflation will be higher. You saw in the SEP
34:32
Speaker 7: that risks and an uncertainty around inflation we see as higher. Nonetheless,
34:38
Speaker 7: we see ourselves as still on track to continue to cut.
34:42
Speaker 7: I think the actual cuts that we make next year
34:45
Speaker 7: will not be because of anything we wrote down today.
34:48
Speaker 7: We're going to react to data. That's just the general
34:50
Speaker 7: sense of what the Committee thinks is likely to be appropriate.
34:54
Speaker 6: Sorry, just one quick follow up, Why I guess would
34:57
Speaker 6: you make those cuts?
34:58
Speaker 7: Like, what would be the trick to cut? So we're
35:02
Speaker 7: to cut further out to this point, I would say
35:05
Speaker 7: it this way. We've reduced our policy rate now by
35:08
Speaker 7: one hundred basis points. We're significantly closer to neutral at
35:11
Speaker 7: four point three percent and change. We believe policy is
35:14
Speaker 7: still meaningfully restrictive. But as for additional cuts, we're going
35:18
Speaker 7: to be looking for further progress on inflation as well
35:21
Speaker 7: as continued strength in the labor market. And as long
35:23
Speaker 7: as the economy and the labor market are solid, we
35:25
Speaker 7: can be cautious about as we consider further cuts. And
35:30
Speaker 7: all of that is reflected to your question in the
35:32
Speaker 7: December sep which shows a median forecast of down two
35:35
Speaker 7: cuts next year compared to four in September's.
35:42
Speaker 8: Power shining with the riders and thanks for the opportunity
35:45
Speaker 8: to ask the question. So this does seem employs the
35:48
Speaker 8: dynamic In twenty sixteen, during the last transition to a
35:51
Speaker 8: Trump administration. The Committee saw slightly tighter policy in part
35:58
Speaker 8: an expected anticipation of the fiscal policy stance that was
36:02
Speaker 8: a scene evolving over the year. Some of it was
36:04
Speaker 8: a data marked to market exercise and some of it
36:07
Speaker 8: was anticipation.
36:08
Speaker 7: Of fiscal What's the split.
36:09
Speaker 8: On this one. How much of this was accounting for
36:12
Speaker 8: inflation data that was coming in, and how much of
36:14
Speaker 8: it is expecting that there will be inflationary fiscal policy
36:18
Speaker 8: next year.
36:19
Speaker 7: I'd say, I'd point to five or six things, and
36:22
Speaker 7: I'd start. Let me start by saying that we think
36:25
Speaker 7: the economy is in a really good place, and we
36:27
Speaker 7: think policy is in a really good place. Let's remember
36:29
Speaker 7: that the economy is growing two and a half percent
36:31
Speaker 7: this year, that inflation has come down by fifty percent
36:35
Speaker 7: from five point six percent to two point six percent.
36:38
Speaker 7: Headline inflation is two point five percent on a twelve
36:41
Speaker 7: month basis. We're actually in a really good starting place here.
36:44
Speaker 7: But since you know so, what's really driving the slower
36:49
Speaker 7: rate cut path? First thing is growth is stronger. Right.
36:53
Speaker 7: The economy grew faster in the second half of twenty
36:56
Speaker 7: and twenty four so far than we had expected, and
37:00
Speaker 7: is expected to be above what our expectations in September
37:04
Speaker 7: next year as well, unemployment is lower, and you know
37:07
Speaker 7: in the SEP you'll see that participants think that the
37:11
Speaker 7: that the downside risks are less and uncertainty is less,
37:14
Speaker 7: and so that's that's more strength. Right. Inflation is higher,
37:20
Speaker 7: as we talked about, inflation is higher this year. It's
37:22
Speaker 7: also higher in the forecast next year. I'd also point
37:25
Speaker 7: out that we're closer to the neutral rate, which is
37:27
Speaker 7: another reason to be cautious about about further moves. And
37:31
Speaker 7: but then getting to your to your point, there's also, uh,
37:35
Speaker 7: there's uncertainty, and certainly inflation i pointed out is actually higher.
37:40
Speaker 7: It's also it's also in the case of some people
37:44
Speaker 7: some people. The way i'd say it is this, some
37:47
Speaker 7: people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate,
37:54
Speaker 7: you know, highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies
37:57
Speaker 7: into their forecasts at this meeting and said so in
38:00
Speaker 7: the meeting. Some people said they didn't do so, and
38:03
Speaker 7: some people didn't didn't say whether they did or not.
38:05
Speaker 7: So we have people making a bunch of different approaches
38:08
Speaker 7: to that. But some did identify policy uncertainty as one
38:14
Speaker 7: of the reasons for they're writing down more uncertainty around inflation,
38:20
Speaker 7: and you know, uncertainty is it's kind of common sense
38:24
Speaker 7: thinking that when the path is uncertain you go a
38:26
Speaker 7: little bit slower. It's not unlike driving on a foggy
38:29
Speaker 7: night or walking into a dark room full of furniture.
38:32
Speaker 7: You just slow down. And so that that may have
38:34
Speaker 7: affected some of the people, but as I said, there's
38:37
Speaker 7: a range of approaches on the committee.
38:39
Speaker 8: If I could follow up on that, you mentioned the
38:41
Speaker 8: risk and uncertainty indexes towards the back of the document,
38:45
Speaker 8: the upside risk to inflation jumped quite substantially. The only
38:49
Speaker 8: thing really that's happened. You mentioned that the disinflationary story
38:53
Speaker 8: remains intact, yet the risk waiting has jumped to the upside.
38:57
Speaker 8: The only real thing that's happened is November fifth in
38:59
Speaker 8: the meantime, Is it fair to say that that's what's
39:01
Speaker 8: driving the higher sense of upside risk on inflation.
39:04
Speaker 7: Actually, that's not the only thing that's happened. What's happened
39:07
Speaker 7: is that our forecast year five tenths higher than they
39:11
Speaker 7: were in September. So you've got you had two months
39:14
Speaker 7: of higher inflation in September and October. As I mentioned,
39:17
Speaker 7: November is back on track. But you know, once again
39:21
Speaker 7: we've you know, we've had a year on projection for
39:24
Speaker 7: inflation and it's kind of fallen apart as we've approached
39:27
Speaker 7: at the end of the year. So that is certainly
39:30
Speaker 7: a large factor in people's thinking. I can tell you
39:32
Speaker 7: that might be the single biggest factor. Is inflation has
39:35
Speaker 7: once again underperformed relative to expectations. It's still you know,
39:40
Speaker 7: going to be between two and a half and three.
39:42
Speaker 7: It's way below where it was. But you know, we
39:44
Speaker 7: really want to see progress on inflation. You know, as
39:48
Speaker 7: I mentioned, as we think about further cuts, we're going
39:51
Speaker 7: to be looking for progress on inflation. We have been
39:53
Speaker 7: moving sideways on twelve month inflation as the twelve month
39:57
Speaker 7: window moves. That's in part because inflation was very, very
40:01
Speaker 7: low measured in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. Nonetheless,
40:04
Speaker 7: as we go forward, we're going to want to be
40:06
Speaker 7: seeing further progress on bringing inflation down and keeping a
40:09
Speaker 7: solid labor market.
40:12
Speaker 9: Chris, Thank you, Chris Rugiber and associated Press, thanks for
40:18
Speaker 9: taking the question. In September twenty eighteen, the FED staff
40:21
Speaker 9: in the tealbook discussed the policy of looking through any
40:24
Speaker 9: new tariffs as long as there were one time increases
40:27
Speaker 9: and inflation expectations remained anchored. Could you comment on if
40:30
Speaker 9: that analysis remains effective in any other thinking on tariffs
40:35
Speaker 9: generally that you can share.
40:37
Speaker 7: So, I do think that the twenty eighteen September twenty
40:40
Speaker 7: eighteen Tealbook alternative simulations are a good place to start.
40:44
Speaker 7: I have him to have brought them here with me today.
40:46
Speaker 7: I'm sure you have them too.
40:48
Speaker 1: They're a good story, all right, guys. So he's wrapping
40:50
Speaker 1: up there, I think.
40:51
Speaker 2: But the key here is that it appears that Chair
40:54
Speaker 2: Pal is not as concerned about the inflation into twenty
40:57
Speaker 2: twenty five. And as you probably noticed, we were showing
41:00
Speaker 2: the true inflation numbers over on the screen as he
41:04
Speaker 2: was kind of mentioning that. And the point is that,
41:06
Speaker 2: and I think rightfully so that some of the reporters
41:10
Speaker 2: we're making is that we've seen nothing but up really
41:12
Speaker 2: since right after the scenario of a new administration come in,
41:16
Speaker 2: and so could we be into a new cycle here
41:19
Speaker 2: going forward. If that were the case, it would cause
41:22
Speaker 2: the FED to not necessarily cause a rate If you
41:25
Speaker 2: go back to polymarket, and we'll just take a look
41:28
Speaker 2: at what's happening right now because this is live. Let
41:30
Speaker 2: me refresh that, guys, just to make sure, because I
41:33
Speaker 2: want to make sure we've got the live Yeah, so
41:34
Speaker 2: it's okay, So see right there, as you're continued right there,
41:39
Speaker 2: it went from eighty percent up to eighty eight percent
41:41
Speaker 2: right now on a potential no change for the January date,
41:46
Speaker 2: So that I think is still the question is whether
41:48
Speaker 2: or not they go flat in January. It wasn't necessarily
41:51
Speaker 2: a large amount of adjustment on the Fed Fund rate
41:55
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five, but it would still be almost
41:58
Speaker 2: a full point means potentially for rate cuts if you
42:01
Speaker 2: were using quarter rate cuts, So all that will play
42:04
Speaker 2: into this. Of course, we will be tracking this pretty
42:06
Speaker 2: significantly as we go into the first of the year.
42:10
Speaker 2: There will be some activity around this, and I think
42:12
Speaker 2: you guys should just be aware there's going to be
42:14
Speaker 2: volatility going into the inauguration. A lot can happen between
42:18
Speaker 2: now and then, so just always be on the lookout
42:21
Speaker 2: and make sure and follow us right here. It's a
42:24
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42:27
Speaker 2: by the way, it's a great place where you guys
42:29
Speaker 2: get in our group, we do an email out to you,
42:32
Speaker 2: we'll send you some wrap ups. I do an additional
42:34
Speaker 2: podcast all that good stuff as well. And I think
42:39
Speaker 2: we're going to go to the poll real quick before
42:40
Speaker 2: we cut out of here. Let's take a look what
42:42
Speaker 2: everybody says. Twenty four hours, our fadminting crypto market will
42:46
Speaker 2: have rallied forty seven percent of you, but thirty one
42:49
Speaker 2: percent say we're going to kind of stay the same,
42:52
Speaker 2: So little bit mixed numbers here, guys, right now, follow
42:56
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42:58
Speaker 2: there on X which is just at Paul Baron. We'll
43:01
Speaker 2: catch you next time right here on tech Bath.
43:10
Speaker 7: M hmm