Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 8/13/2026 with Jed Sidwell | WASDE Corn Yield Cut and Flooding Threaten Crops

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 8/13/2026 with Jed Sidwell | WASDE Corn Yield Cut and Flooding Threaten Crops · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're going to talk about what happened yesterday in that WASD report.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Packer margins are up for some debate, and oil fell overnight.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: If you didn't notice, we'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Down day on the cattle side and rather unchanged on hogs.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle closed at 223.80, down two and a half bucks.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were down 590 at 339.350.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs kind of up and down across the board, mostly just an upward trend in most contracts up 23 cents at 83 and a half.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Well, quoting the markets here live with our quotes from plus 500, we saw just kind of a continuation of what we saw on the close yesterday overnight on the grain side of things.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Deese corn is at 477.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Sep beans are at 1166.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago wheat is at 656.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: The real interesting one is oil right now as I'm recording here live with my quotes from T4 from plus 500.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: Go ahead and shout them out real quick.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Oil's right now at 8139, 37, going down just a little bit.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have some more thoughts on that here in a sec, but I'd like to get to the weather because, man, it has been a rough one for the northern Corn Belt states, especially Indiana.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Catastrophic flooding in southeast Indiana happened yesterday and kind of overnight.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Radar estimates over a foot of rain has fallen near Newcastle and Henry County, with Wayne County also hit hard.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Both counties are under travel warnings, restricting roads to emergency management vehicles only, and flood watches are now extended across central Iowa, northern Illinois, and Ohio.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Man, it's going to have an effect on the crops out there and crop conditions 100%.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: There's going to be some parts of these fields that will be unharvestable come late fall, even with this amount of time to dry out.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: The fields are just incredibly saturated around here.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I can't even walk in my lawn out here in northern Illinois.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's pretty spongy right now.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: The rest of the country, though, has seen some much needed rains.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: I got some Snapchats from the panhandle of Nebraska getting some much needed moisture there.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: In Colorado, we're finally getting a little bit of relief, even down in some Kansas, a little bit of the panhandle of Oklahoma as well.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: The WASDI report came out yesterday, and you know, there were several charts that I could have brought up to discuss what happened here and what happened there.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: The big thing was that they cut the corn yield to like 180.1.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: That was the big one.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: And it was kind of contradictory to kind of some reports that came out earlier.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: The acreage went down, or the acreage went up down just slightly, and you know, the yield, that was the big cut.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: And it came from states like Nebraska.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: We discussed this more yesterday.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: We had a big roundtable discussion on the premium side of things, where me, Tommy, and Davis talked about the USDA.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: We call it the USDA data update for a half hour, really breaking down what we saw and what we thought that meant for the future.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: That is on the premium side, though.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's a great discussion.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: It got tons of views from all of our subscribers and some pretty positive feedback.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: We would love to have you there.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: $25 or$250 annually at Agbull.com.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: On to the livestock discussion.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this chart here talks about Packer margins, and that's kind of estimated packer margins on beef feds or kind of a projection year over year change.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: That green line is like a 2014 to 2019 estimate.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: I can't really see it here.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Let me see if I can pull it up closer.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: My screen, there is a lot to break down there.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's a 17 to 19 average, that green line.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, all the years past that are below that, and the blue one is where we're sitting at 2026.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: However, some are skeptical though, because I mean that's just the total cutout value that the packer receives.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: But as I was talking with some friends here recently, every single time a knife passes through a piece of meat, it gains value.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: The more time it gets spent being processed, it gains value.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: And it's at a rate that is pretty exponential.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: You know, if we're talking, you know, adding a value-added program to our beef, selling them with CAB or Nolan Ryan or some sort of fed beef program, you're looking at maybe, man, we can get maybe 10-20% growth on what we're going to see when we sell these things at Kill Day.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Man, on a premium, all natural hot dog that's grass-fed and ethically raised, they're seeing like a hundred percent markup on the price of a hot dog.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: So whether the Packers bleeding or not, that is up for some discussion there.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: On to the oil headline for today, and this is the big one.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Oil prices drop as investors' way, falling demand against Middle East tension.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: The International Energy Agency said global oil demand is set to fall further than previously expected this year.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Oman's coastline is apportedly being affected by a massive oil spill caused by a leaking tanker.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: Deadly attacks on the vessel in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea have pushed worries over supply distributions up another notch.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's interesting to see.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Some say that we're going to see a lot of demand for oil this coming year and that fuel prices are continuing to go up because we just don't have the reserves that we once did.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, things like this make you think otherwise, especially when the price falls like it did overnight, about a buck and a half there.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: We'll make sure and keep you updated here on those outside markets here at Ag Bull.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: On the economic calendar for today, the Conan came out already at 7 a.m.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Export sales comes out here in a few minutes at 7.30.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: Same with the jobless claims and PPI.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Natural gas storage change comes out at 9.30 a.m.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Well, make sure to go ahead and follow us on our social medias.
• 6:38
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• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: We'd like to live stream these episodes on X later in the day.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're just want to turn on your notifications for your X for Ag Bull, you can always get a daily update on when to watch.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to do 8 15 and 8 15 a.m.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: and P.M.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: is when we're going to live stream our episodes.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure and catch them there.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: I really enjoy getting to talk to you guys every day and putting together a show.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: It is the highlight of my day.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: If you have any things you'd like to see in the show or any comments or questions, make sure and leave them down below.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, I'm Jed Sidwell with Agble Media for a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.