Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - What EVERY Investor Needs to Do Now [After FED GOES NUCLEAR] + Stock Market News 17 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - What EVERY Investor Needs to Do Now [After FED GOES NUCLEAR] + Stock Market News 17 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-morning live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: The Fed just went AWOL.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Absolutely nuts what's going on between the Fed and President Trump and that's going to impact the markets massively here before the Easter weekend, and I want to make sure that you are the best informed investor out there.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: That's also why Winston, of course, is joining me here, because he's the really smart hound here.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Why is he off screen?
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Winston, there you are.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Um, he's a bit hot, isn't he?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: And what we're going to walk you through is why the fed just went able, what trump is threatening the fed with?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And, number three, will the first trade deal actually save the market here?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I'll then, number four, walk you through the one stock that's tanking the markets today and explain to you what happens.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: If you are tired of missing out on rallies and if you're just tired of being stressed out by your portfolio because buying the dip doesn't really work and I'll show you why and what the better alternative is I'll give you literally my advice to investors today, and then we're going to review popular stocks.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I looked at the stock charts for things like Palantir, nvidia, tesla, sofi and Artro and so on, and my goal is always for you to be sort of as well informed as an investment banker would be if you had a proper morning briefing what I used to get.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So that's the goal here today.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: If that sounds like something that could be high value to you, with or without Hound, then there it is again in its ultimate glory.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Write value in the chat and I know that you are getting something out of this which is good.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Winston's awake today.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: He just chased one of his favorite friends around the park and he's still quite excited about that.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: As you can see right, he looks happy today.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So Stephen there says I only have 1.2 million in my 401k and retiring soon.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going to join the Academy because I want to ensure my financial freedom.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Welcome, stephen, and I'm very glad you're making steps in that direction, and I always say it doesn't mean you guys have to like join us or learn from me, but just the fact that you're learning is what makes me motivated to keep doing what we're doing here.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So let me show you what the Fed just said, and I might have to get rid of Winston here for a moment.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So Jerome Powell spoke yesterday in Chicago Thanks for all the Vs and all the values there.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: And he said look, a bunch of things which kind of shocked markets.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: He said the economic impact of tariffs is larger than expected and he says inflation caused by tariffs are going to stick around for longer.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Not what we want to hear, because, you know, a few weeks ago he was saying, oh, it's transitory, it's temporary.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: And then he was asked is there a Fed put for the market?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Now, what's a Fed put?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: A Fed put is a sort of insurance, as in the Fed will step in when things go really really south.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: And he says I'm going to say no, and that kind of was just really not what we wanted to hear, because we've been all led to believe that if things go really south, the Fed will step in, because they always have in recent years.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: But there seems to be such a strong rift between Papa Powell and El Presidente that things are looking very, very dicey.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: So he's also said the Fed is not going to be influenced by any political pressure.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: What kind of political pressure are we talking about here?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Well, trump fired back shortly afterwards.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: He said the ECB is expected to cut, that's the European Central Bank expected to cut rates for the seventh time.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: And they have just done that, and yet too late.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Jerome Powell is always too late and wrong.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: As you report, there was a complete mess.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Too late.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Should certainly lower them now.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Powell's termination cannot come fast enough.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So he's basically saying he wants to fire Jerome Powell.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Whether or not he'll do that is a whole different story.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: But Powell's term does expire in early 2026.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: He's certainly going to get replaced then.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: This is just not really what we want, right?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: We kind of want these big government head honchos, the president and the Fed, to actually kind of work together to cause stability and prosperity.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: This is not what the market likes to hear.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: And the president cannot fire the Federal Reserve chairman, true.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And now, well, that's the current state of affairs.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: There is a lawsuit which will decide that.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: By the way, I think it's going to the Supreme Court.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So maybe you can, maybe you can't, because the president can fire the heads of pretty much every government agency, because that's the executive and he's the head of that.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: But the Fed does have some special independent powers, allegedly.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: We'll find out short enough.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So Japan came to Washington yesterday and was meant to save the party, didn't they, winston?
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: They could save the party, he thought they did, but they didn't bring any bones, so to speak.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Well, they made a lot of progress.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So the market was like brilliant, we're going to get our first trade deal.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: It'll be the template for all other trade deals and they're going to fall into line and tariffs are going to come down and it'll be absolutely wonderful.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: So why does the market not look absolutely wonderful as we're looking here this morning?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Whoops, unitedhealth it's one of the largest stocks in the world and it took a 20% tumble on earnings because they had a surprisingly large amount of stuff to pay for on Medicaid and so on, and their guidance wasn't particularly great either.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: That's what I always look at.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I always think like was it predictable?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Were there any warning signs?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So very quick chart lesson for you chartists out there, because ultimately, this is what makes us the most money.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: So what did we see?
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: We had a nice gap up here, right, that was bullish on nice strong volumes.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So the rally looked really good.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: What happened then On the next one, two, three green days?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Can you see that volume went down significantly.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: You see that?
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: What about the resistance line there, that red line?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: I'm pointing out, that was the resistance line.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: We didn't close above that.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: What happened the next day?
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: We had a red day here.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Volume went even lower.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: What about on the next day?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Well, we closed even lower and volume went even lower.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So what we're seeing is that the steam went out of the rally.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: So could you have foreseen this?
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Well, the third red candle candles that look like this are really, really not very good, because what it means is that during the day feel free to take notes we rallied all the way up to the top and then we went all the way back down to almost the bottom of the day.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: It's a very, very, very bad red candle.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So somebody always knows.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: By the way, there is always somebody who knows what's about to happen, especially pre-earnings.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: So, pre-earnings, watch the chart very, very, very, very carefully.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: And then what you might want to do when you have a beautiful rally like this is draw a trend line that connects the lows sort of roughly right Approximately.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: My line isn't sort of perfect, but you get the idea, and when you break below that trend, you might want to take at least half your money off the table.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: That's a very, very good lesson.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Especially when you hit resistance lines like this, you might want to be like well, I've had a really nice run here.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: This was an easy.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: What was the rally up You're like?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Well, this was an easy eight and a half percent in four days.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Let's not get greedy, let's take a little bit of money off the table here.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: But of course, nobody knew what the results were there, except for a few people who probably traded it the day before.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, pretty ugly opening there to UNH, which is what's hitting markets pretty hard here.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: We also had Wells Fargo coming out, which is a really lovely sentence which is the following and I promise this is not going to be a doom and gloom session I want to make sure you walk away with some actionable value here.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: But they're saying home sales aren't far off from the levels seen in the wake of the great recession.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, talk about cheering up the market, right, so the housing market's obviously in trouble.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: And then we have united health here, which is taking down the whole kind of health services sector with it, at least most of it, which is definitely not good.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Wolf, wolf winston yeah, he's here, there he is.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: He's now looking a little bit less, uh, less lively.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Eli Lilly oh, yes, um, that's a fat story, isn't it?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, I asked you guys, are you, um, happy buying the dip?
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: And yeah, 38% of you are, but the other half, or the other 62%, who may be a little bit more honest, not really.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: You don't feel great buying the dip, right, and I'll show you in a second why buying the dip is not a great idea here.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And if you are bored of being stressed by your portfolio, you need to actually learn how to pick good stocks, depending on where we are in the market.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: The market is a set of patterns.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: It basically goes sideways, it goes up, it goes sideways, it goes down, it goes sideways, it goes up, and it sort of does that In January, speaking, an upward trend.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: But these downwards and sideways motions can be very, very long and we therefore want to take them into account, and literally everybody on Wall Street agrees that there are a couple of things you can do about three of them, and what I will do for you is this Easter Saturday, I will teach them to you.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: If you come and join us live for a webinar where I will teach you how to pick great long-term stocks, and I'll also explain to you how these patterns work, so you know what to do right now.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Right, like, I'm not buying tech stocks right now.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Right, I'm buying stuff that most people would think is really boring, because that's actually what's making us money right now.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: And then there'll be a certain point when we buy tech stocks again, and if you don't know that, you're basically like swimming against the tide.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: It's just a really, really hard way to make money when there is a much, much easier way to potentially make money.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: And that's what I want to teach you guys, so that you can bounce back from the crash like a rock star.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Retire sooner, retire better.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Who was it at the top of the chat here who said you're about to retire?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Let's go up, stephen, my friend, that's exactly what we're teaching, or about to teach you guys.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: So come and join us.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: It's completely free.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: I love doing these and I keep doing these as long as many, many, many of you show up.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So this Easter Saturday will be an opportunity to actually learn how to be a winner in literally this market, this right market, this market right now.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Exactly what's going on right now.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Let me explain to you why.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: If you're still convinced by the whole dip buying thing which is fair enough, because you've been indoctrinated with buy the dip for many years and why has it worked for many years?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: The market's gone up in a pretty much straight line since COVID.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Why the Fed printed $4 trillion.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: That money found its way into the stock market.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: It wasn't that we were a genius making money in this market.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Anybody could have made money in that market.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: But the tough times is where we separate the skilled investor from the lucky investor.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Right, it's good to be lucky, by the way, I'm all in favor of luck, but if we want to keep those gains, we need the skills to make sure we keep them.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So if you look at a bit of a funky chart here, you know bankers make these charts as complicated as possible to make it look like they're smarter than they actually are.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So this is basically showing you the big drawdowns in the S&P, and we've had some pretty big ones you know, like in the 2008,.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: We went down 50%.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: We went down 40% sometime around 2001 or so In the 70s.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: We've gone down 40%, but then we've had some pretty, pretty, pretty major ones.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Covid up here actually is a pretty minor one sort of whatever that was Now.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: But what I actually want you to focus on is the left side of the screen, is how many months until we get a new, all-time high.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: The buy the dip thing buy the dip only works if you are going to get a new high pretty quickly.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: If it takes, like in the 1970s, if it takes about 80 months to get the new high, you're probably going to stop buying the dip because you get really exhausted.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: It's a really exhausting way to make money, right?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Or what was that here?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: The dot-com one that was about 70, 80 months too.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: And there was another one here around 2008 that also took about 60 months, 60 months.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Think about that.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: It's five years, right?
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So five years of dip.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Do you think you have the stamina to buy the dip all the time?
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Probably not.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So there is a smarter way of dealing with this to actually make money in the dip and then position ourselves for the things that are going to make money when we come out of it, rather than just buying these falling knives.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Like you know, some people are telling you buy nvidia, now buy, and now please don't because they're falling.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: And one of my mentors amazingly smart guy.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: He ran brokerage teams and some of the most biggest investment banks in the world.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: He taught those guys how to trade.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: He was a floor trader in a big stock exchange and super smart brain.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: He wrote something to me the other day and said like I do one very simple thing I buy things that go up.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: It sounds so silly, right, but that's literally what the rule is.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Like the guys on Wall Street, they're not buying falling things, they're buying things that are going up, they're going with the wave, they're not going against the wave, and retail at the moment seems to be going against the wave, and it's a really, really, really short way of making sure you get exhausted and stressed and everything else.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: So don't do that, my friends.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Come and join me on Saturday instead and I'll teach you how to swim with the tide, not against it.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So that's, honestly, my advice to investors.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: It's like just big tech right now, all tech right now, is insanely risky.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying it.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I'm nibbling on a few things defense, for example, a little bit of gold, stuff like that and I'm being very, very cautious.