Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 3 Showdown | May 10, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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PGA Round 3 Showdown | May 10, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:47
  Speaker 1: What's going on, golf fans. It's your boy gis Luck
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: here with our Round three showdown stream for the Truest Championship.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Gonna get you guys ready for all your moving day
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: exposure with a look at the weather report, some of
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the strategy out there for round number three, any questions,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: any player deep dives that you've got for me down
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: in the chat, as well as some strategy towards the end.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: So first off, I hope that you're having a fantastic
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: day out there. You've got the weekend started, so excited
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: for all the festivities over the weekend, and because we
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: had an early finish today on the PGA side, gonna
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: be able to get this out nice and early for
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: your research, so maybe you can watch it, be able
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to get some of your lineups in before you head
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: out for the night, which is a nice change what
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: we typically have here on Friday. But today ended up
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: being a little bit of a terrible day for me
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: in showdown, but that happens sometimes over there on the
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Showdown streets. But we have rounds three and four to
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: go out there and get back after them, so I'm
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: super stoked to go ahead and talk about it. So
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: it started off with the look of the golf course
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: from today, which was a nine day difference from round
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: number one. So rounds one it played three point two
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: to one under. Today it actually played over par with
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the cooler temperatures. On top of it being about twenty
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: degrees cooler, it was also about ten to fifteen miles
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: an hour of sustained wins and you even had wind
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: gust it got close to twenty to twenty five mile
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: an hour times. So those two factors combined together, along
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: with some rain that happened and play today, was why
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: it was so drastic out there from round one to
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: round two. Now, not to get too far ahead of ourselves,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: but out there for tomorrow it's gonna be pretty blustery
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: and cold for the first half of the day, so
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I think that it's gonna be a lot closer to
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: round number two for tomorrow than that super low scoring
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: that we had for round one. So if you were
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: somebody that thought this course might have been too easy
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: after Thursday, well you're getting your wish out here for
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: the rest of the weekend, and depending on what we
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: get out there on Sunday, it might even be a
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: good test for the last three rounds. So fingers crossed
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: that we get some of that wind over the weekend,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: because today's test was far more interesting than what we
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: had out there for Thursday. But going into this Friday forecast,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: you could see what this age triple are. Not only
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: is it going to be cool in the morning closer
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: to forty six to fifty degrees for the first few hours,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: but it's also gonna be a lot gustier in that
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: first half of the day. You're talking about closer to
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: thirty even thirty five miles an hour of wind gusts
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: out there, and it's still gonna be pretty strong wins
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: for most of the day out there. Your PM starters,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the guys towards the lead, are gonna have maybe one
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: to two miles an hour less of sustained wins, but
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the win gus drop about ten miles an hour as
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the day goes on. So I think that that will
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: be significant out there for scoring, along with the fact
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: that with a fifteen to twenty degree difference in the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: temperatures closer to a fifteen degree difference out there from
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: morning to afternoon, that that's gonna make the ball travel
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: about like twenty yards further off the tea So that's
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: going to lead to some lower scores out there in
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the PM wave, which because we're going back to twosomes
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: off of whole number one, it's going to be your
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: leaders and the guys that are close to the lead
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: that are teeing off in the second half of the day.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So if you're somebody that's a chaser like me for mainslate,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: maybe not in the best position after thirty six holes.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: It's not the exact kind of weather forecast that you
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: were hoping to see. But from a showdown perspective, I
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: would favor some of these later guys over players that
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: have to go off in those cooler temperatures. So you know,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: your first three, maybe even four hours of tea time,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: so your first three hours would be about about Davis Thompson,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rye area, even out to about this eleven thirty area,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: you're talking about slightly worse conditions. Now, these guys that
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: are closer to like a ten thirty eleven o'clock start time,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: they're not going to be in those cooler temperatures for
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: more than a third of their holes out there. But
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the earlier you go, so like the nine ems are
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse than those ten thirties. There's eight
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: thirties a little bit worse than these first few groups. Off,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: the players are gonna get the worst conditions for Saturday.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So it's unfortunate because normally we like when the weather
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: edge favors these earlier starters because they are your lower
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: rowned players. And it's real easy to remember that because
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: anytime you have a showdown slate, people like playing the
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: guys that are in form and towards the top, and
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: these guys that are going off early out there tomorrow
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: there are the exact opposite of that. So from the
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: showdown perspective, you're gonna see me taking a lot more
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: chalk than you would typically see for this kind of
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: slate showdown, especially on an eighteen whole sample size. I'm
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: in trying to trying to embrace as much chaos as possible,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: But when you have what could be a half a stroke,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: maybe even more than a half a stroke difference between
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the first and second half of tea times, I'm gonna
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: go out there and lock them in as much as possible.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So in my player poll of about twenty seven players,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I've already made my projections and player pool over there
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: for tomorrow. So I've got a really good idea of
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: what I'm doing for the slate. So if you have
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: any questions about specific ownership numbers on players, I can
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: give you some insight into where my site has them
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: projected to help you out with some of your early research.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna be playing a lot of those higher
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: owned guys that are towards the top end of the board,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: which means I'm either going to have to leave some
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: salary on the table to go out there and make
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: sure I'm not duplicating myself, and I'm probably gonna have
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: to go to a mid to early guy, right one
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: of those guys that's teeing off earlier for some of
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: that leverage. Now, it's worth noting that you don't have
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: to go to like the eight M guys to go
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: out there and get your leverage. If you went to
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: this like nine point thirty to ten range, where these
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: guys don't have the best conditions, their first like two
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: hours of player are gonna be sub ideal, I'd say,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: because it's gonna be super gusty out there. You could
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: still find a player or two out here from this
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: range to throw into your player pool because they're going
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: to be super low owned in GBPS, and you know,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: if you're taking eight, almost their entire round is gonna
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: be played in those harder conditions. But if you go
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: just a little bit later out there on the tea times,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I think you can find a good mix of leverage
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: and players that can still get there, because I don't
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna have more than maybe one guy out
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: of these first like six seven groups that goes out
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: there and shoots anything respectable. I'm talking about like minus
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: four or better. Like, I think it's gonna be a
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: struggle bus with those cold and windy conditions, Whereas with
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: these guys a little bit later on, I think there
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: could be a handful of players that are going off
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: in this like you know one and a half two
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: hour window that we're looking at right here, that could
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: be used for some of the lower owned ownership over
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: there in your lineup. So I do want to target
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: these later guys. I think it makes sense out there
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: from the weather perspective, but it's kind of like a
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Sunday showdown slate where you can't go out there and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: just stack the top end of the board, because if
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: you do so, you're gonna be taking quite a bit
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: of ownership in the process. So that's the top level strategy,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: that is how the weather impacts the slate. But we're
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about ness will be all the player pull
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: stuff for around number three, So we're gonna go through
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: some gained metrics together. How I incorporate those over into
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: my process. Any player pull deep dives that you want to,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: any specific players that you want to know how they
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: played out there today, just let me know over there
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: in the live chat. But that can be with shots gained, metrics, ownership,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: whatever the case. May be an open book for the
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: next fifteen to twenty minutes here, but it start off
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: with the shots gained ball striking, and you can see
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: today that Gary Woodlands leads the way at about six
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: and a half shots gained ball striking and most of
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: that came on approach, so I find that rather impressive.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: But as you've seen in my content over here with
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: a showdown before, these ball striking guys are always towards
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the top end of my list, and because we have
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: a weather edge that's favoring your later starters, oftentimes i'd say,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: like a Gary Woodin, a Lowry Justin Thomas. You better
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: love them if you're going to go out there and
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: throw them into lineups, because they're going to be a
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: little bit higher owned. And that is still true. They
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: are going to be higher owned. But because they're now
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: on the right side of the draw, they're getting the
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: better side of conditions for round number three. It's not
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: very typical that these guys towards the top are getting
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the better side of the draw. I think that they're
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: even better plays for round number three. So you're gonna
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: see me playing Justin Thomas once again. I've played the
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: rounds one and two. I'm going back round number three
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: even a Shane Lowry in consideration. Now, he's a little
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: bit chalkier than my liking. I'll just tell you right now.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: He's actually one of the few guys towards the top
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: that I am not using out there in my lineups.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: You can't play all the chalk up here, right, You've
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: got to have some stands that you're taking against the
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: rest of the field. But at Gary Woodlands, you'll see
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: him in my player pool. Victor Hovin continues to hit
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: the ball beautifully but lost over two and a half
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: strokes out there with the plutter today. These sort of guys,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: and especially like these guys starting in the top ten,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I guess Simu kim a Colin Morikawa that had really
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: good days over there with their ball striking stats you're
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: gonna see out there in my lineup, so partially weather based,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: partially because they are hitting the ball the best of
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: anyone out there in the field. And if you've been
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: to these live streams before, you'll know that how you
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: actually swing the golf club you're driving. Your iron stats
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: out there from round to rounds are the most consistent
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: stats that you can find from day to day. And
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: on top of just looking at the raw shots gain
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: metrics that we're looking at here, you can use tools
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: like the stone over there on the ship at Nation website.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: True approach will help you iron out and kind of
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: take away some of the outliers out there with some
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: of these approach stats. So that true approach category I
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: will look a little bit different than some of these
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: raw numbers over here on the right, because if somebody
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: holds out for an eagle, for example, which happened with
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: a few players today. In fact, I think Woodland was
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: one of those players. Let's stumble check on that right here,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: so you can see on the whole number twelve we
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: did hole out out there for an eagle. That makes
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: a massive difference when it comes to your shots gained approach.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So sure Woodland's had a really good day out there,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: still going to grade out well out there from the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: iron perspective, but he didn't really in terms of his
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: true approach today gain five strokes into the positive there.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: So you know, the raw shots game metrics have a
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: lot of advantages to going out there and using them,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: but tools like that true approach over there on the
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: stone on shipped Nation a great tool to go out
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: there and utilize as well. So I'll look at some
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: of the approach stats from today here too. So a Dunlap,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: who by the way, I mean he was the last
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: place player after round number one, goes out there and
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: fires a minus four out there today. He's an absolute grinder.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: That doesn't surprise me. Decki Matsiyama had some favorable iron stats,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: but also a horrendous putting day, so could be due
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: for a little bit of short game regression, which we'll
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: talk about here in a minute. That short game regression
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: another category that we're going to sort by. But a
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Nick Taylor another guy that's popping with the approach stats
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: but couldn't make a putt today? Who else on here?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: And Adam Hadwin had that kind of a stat profile,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa had that stat profile. Daniel Berger once again,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: he had a little bit of a better putting day.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Missed two putts from seven feet for Bertie today, which
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: for somebody that took us over at four and a
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: half Bertie's that was rather tilting out there in my lineups.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: But all of these guys that popped on approach maybe
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: didn't go out there and gain like three or four
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: strokes over there with the putter are players that I'll
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: go out there and use in lineups now. Jacob Bridgeman,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: he did have himself a day over there with the Irons,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: but he had the spike hutting performance today. And the
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: next thing I want to talk about would be this
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: short game regression, which, as we mentioned on yesterday's live stream,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: it is really tough to go out there and gain
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of strokes putting in back to back days,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and you know, accept Straka. Let's take a look at
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: him as a case example, here round number one, he
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: went out there and gained one stroke putting, and then
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: today gained three and a half strokes putting. This is
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: well over his baseline, Especially this three and a half
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: strokes that you have here round number three. It would
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: be rather mind blowing to me if he went out
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: there and he gained three and a half strokes putting again,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell would be an even bigger short game regression candidate.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: And this isn't a good short game regression candidate, right,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: This is the kind of negative regression that you want
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: to avoid in some lineups. Today he gained three and
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: a half strokes putting. Round number one, he gained over
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: two strokes over there with the flat stick. These sort
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: of players, especially a Sep and a Keith Mitchell, that
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: aren't known for being good putters, you really kind of
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: want to maybe avoid out there in your round three lineups,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: since you know, it's not to say that they couldn't
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: go out there and get you in optimal performance, just
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: that for them to go out there and do it
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: with the flat stick is highly unlikely if they're gonna
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: go out there and shoot something like minus five minus six. Again,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: it's because they're going out there and they're flipping it
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: from t to green, and you can see today that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: neither one was that stout from tee to green. Step
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: did gain at least over a stroke over there on approach,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: but Keith lost one point seven strokes over there on approach. Today,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: stepstrack A lost strokes there off the tee. So I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: would say that those are fragile pieces of chalk just
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: because of how many putts that they were making. It's
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: somebody like a sun GM that lost strokes on approach
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: but gained with the putter. Maybe somebody that you just
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: got to have a little bit of caution before you
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: go out there and throw into lineups. I'm not using
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: any of those guys out there in my lineup, So
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: that's just how I incorporate it into my process. You
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: want to mold it and use what's best for you
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: out there with your given results. But those are the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: kind of players that I'm looking to put in kind
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: of downtick out there in my process. The other side,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: he can look at some of the guys that lost
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of strokes putting. So Keegan Bradley a
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Decky as we outlined before, but as alturs An o'bear A, Hobblind,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Si Wu Wyndham Clerk were all not likely to go
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: out and lose two three strokes putting again, and especially
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: when it's a guy like Wyndham Clark that's typically a
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: good putter. O Bears a much better putter than losing
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: two and a half strokes per round. Victor Hoblin the
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: same way, and Hoblin's just like Keith Mitchell right has
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: lost sorry gain strokes putting for two days in a row.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Victor Hoblin, on the other hand, has had the exact
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: opposite happened. He lost over two strokes today, He lost
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: over three strokes out there and round number one. If
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: he has some short game regression coming, it could be
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: massive out there for Victor Hoblin, because if you take
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a look at his game outside of the putter, he's
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: been into the positive in all three categories. One stroke
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: off the t, two strokes over there with the approach,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: played pretty respectable there with the short game two. So
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: if he can find a way to just even be
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: a neutral over there in the greens for tomorrow, that
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: could be a near optimal performance. So that's why I
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: use that short game regression to my advantage. You take
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: a look at around the green as well, So losing
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of strokes around the green, it's not
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: usually gonna happen in bunches. So Justin Rose, who I
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: played it in lineups today, that was a terrible play
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: for sure out there with him shooting a seventy seven.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: He lost four strokes around the green in three strokes putting,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: so it was mostly the short game that caused him
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: to have such a poor performance. Guys like a Chris
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Kirk probably not gonna lose all those strokes short game
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: two days in a row. Chris Kirk also had a
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: pretty rough round number one, so could be due for
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: some short game regressions sooner rather than later. Same thing
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: as what we have with the putter. So these guys
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: that gained two to three strokes into the positive here
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: also not likely to go out there and repeat that
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: in back to back days. So those are the sort
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: of things that I'm looking for out there in my
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: player pool. And because we do have that weather advantage,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: perhaps towards the later starters, these chalky guys that sometimes
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: i'd be avoiding out here for our round three showdown,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: are going to have a really big part in my process,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: So we'll talk about how I'm navigating my lineups with
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: some higher ownership players in my player pool, because it's
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: not impossible. You can still play some chalk and get
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: away with it as long as you're very intentional about
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: how you're getting different. So we'll talk about that as
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: we get to the contest. Sorry, the lone of construction
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: here in just a few minutes, it's going on. Joseph,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: you said colder than a witch's titty out there today. Yeah, man, cold,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: windy and rainy out there. I wouldn't want to be
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: playing golf, but it was fun to watch on a couch,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that's for sure, especially down here in sunny South Florida.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the contests that are available.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: So over there on DraftKings, it's a little bit better
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: than yesterday, but not by much. You have the same
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: size of contest over here in the five to five
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: to five, which is also not as top heavy as usual.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: So if you want to enter that five five to five,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: actually don't think it's the worst contest. The issue is
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: is that it's over twenty five hundred dollars to go
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: out there and max entry. In fact, it's twenty seven
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: hundred nearly twenty eight hundred dollars they go out there
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and max enter it. So it's a little bit rich,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: i'd say for a lot of people's portfolios. More realistic
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: contest for a lot of you out there would be
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: contests like you have this one hundred dollars single entry,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: this long drive that is fifteen percent out there to
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: first place. You also have the thirty three dollars single entries,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the twelve dollars single entries that are really good contests
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: for people that are newer tor dfs. This one is
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: ten percent to first place. So it's got that flat
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: payout structure that we're kind of looking for. Let's see
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: if I can find the twelve dollar on here, and
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: I know they've been hiding it a little bit further
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: down the board. It's a little bit over that ten
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: percent to first place, but also the kind of payout
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: structure that you're looking for in that top five top ten.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: So if you're somebody that's just playing a few lineups
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: out there for any given slate, maybe you have like
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: a fifty dollars budget, the twelve dollar, the thirty three
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: dollars single entry, then also that five dollars single entry,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: which that one's going to be hidden. It's going to
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: be hard for me to find on here, but let
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: me see if I can find it throughout all these
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: different five dollars contests. That's the five dollars GPP that
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you have there, But the five dollars single entry you have,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: which has about one thousand entries, I think out there
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: for tomorrow, if you want the five to twelve and
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the thirty three, that's fifty dollars right there, and you've
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: got three single entries which you can enter three different
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: lineups if you want to out there into this three
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: different contests will give you that fifty dollars exposure that
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: you want without having to go against like ten thousand
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: other entries. Some people that have that fifty dollars budget,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: I'd say a lot of them probably are going to
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: see this five thousand dollars were prized to first, you know,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: going against six thousand other people and go oh, I'll
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: throw ten lineups into this sort of contest. And I
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: would say, if that's you out there, try to go
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: out there and change your process if you can, at
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: least if you care about being sustainable long term, because
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: finishing in the top five, top ten of this contest
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: is going to be much much more difficult than going
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: out there and just beating a couple one hundred dollar entries.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: And if you go out there, even just one of
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: those three single entries, even if it's the five dollars
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: that you enter and you finish top five, you're gonna
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: end up like three to four x on the day
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: overall with their portfolio. So if you go out there
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: and do that same kind of thing, you're gonna get
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: a similar payout, by the way, right, depending on which
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: contest you have that top five, and like if it's
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: in the one hundred dollars single entry, you man actually
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: be getting a better payout out there for like fifth
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: place in that contest as opposed to what you have
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: over here in the big GPP. That's why I prefer
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: that kind of exposure if you're not going to be
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: entering a whole bunch of lineups. So today, for example,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: I entered a whole bunch of single entries. I had
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the two one hundred dollars single entries. I had the
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: thirty three dollars, twelve dollars, some of the secondary like
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: twelve and thirty three dollars that they posted as well,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: and then only like twenty five lineups out there into
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: the big GPP. So you know, even somebody like me
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: that does this at higher volume than a lot of
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: people watching this is trying to go out there and
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: keep it as sustainable as possible by entering the right
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: sort of contests. In terms of your lineup construction, we
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: do have to focus on the weather a little bit here,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: which is why we might want to consider leaving some
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: salary on the table. So because we're gonna be taking
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: more ownership than usual, I'm gonna be leaving five hundred
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars on the table on a lot
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: of my large field GPP lineup, which is not going
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: to be the bulk of my exposure. I'm going to
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: have more single entries over there for tomorrow. But the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: lineups that they throw into that big five dollars GPP
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: are probably going to try and I'm just gonna try
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: and juple themselves with no one right, but still go
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: out there and play all those PM players. So I'm
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: gonna have to really get different from the lineup construction.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: So to show you an example of how you could
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: do that, I'm gonna start with the JT who has
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: started off with some really good ball striking stats and
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: also has a little bit of a later time. Let's
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: go to I'm trying to make sure that they're going
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: off at least like mid or late tea time. So
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: let's go with Kegan Bradley, who's a mid to later
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: tea time who is also due for a little bit
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: of putting regression. Let's throw the same Burns in there too,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: who is also a later tea time. Now shots game
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: metrics not really the reason for playing a Burns, but
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: he is a high upside player that I will be
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: using in some of my lineups for today and this range.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: We don't have a whole bunch of guys that fit
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: to kind of build that we're looking for, so let's
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: go a little bit go a little bit further up.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: We could play Keith Mitchell, we could play sun GM
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Mitchell a little bit chalkier than I really want. And
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: because this is for the large field GPP, like the
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Big five or twenty five dollars GPP, we're gonna avoid
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: a Keith Mitchell. He is probably gonna be at twenty percent,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: maybe even a little bit over twenty percent out there
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: in some of those contests, So we're not gonna be
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: able to find a later starter in this range. But
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: let's throw in a Hideki Matsiyama, who's towards the middle
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: end of tea times. He might even be a little
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: bit of a piece of leverage for us over here
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: in this eight K range. And as we were looking
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: at in the shots game metrics before, I think he
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: makes sense out there for tomorrow, So let's throw him
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: in there. So in Batilla there, it's seventy seven hundred dollars,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: So we've got all mid to later starters here, so
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: that weather edge is taken care of a Deci's giving
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: us a little bit of leverage. But because we've got
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of chalk here, and normally this lineup would
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: be like blasphemous over here in showdown, just because it'd
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: be higher owned than I would want out there in
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: my large heal GPP exposure. But if we leave like
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: four hundred five hundred dollars on the table and we
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: get somebody down here that's going to be a little
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: bit lower owned, then I think you're totally fine in contest. So,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: for example, if you rounded this off with Nick Taylor
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and Alex Noorn down there, maybe a Gary Woodland down
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: there at sixty four hundred dollars sixty four hundred, we
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: would be leaving a whole seven hundred dollars out there
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: on the table. It is chalky your leverage. It's going
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit more of an issue than
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: it typically would be. But that weather edge, if it
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: is going to be like a half a stroke, I
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: mean it's going from cold to mild temperatures, and it's
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: going from windy to less windy out there in the afternoon,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: I think it might be worth having four or five
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: of those guys out there in your lineup. So that's
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the whole reason that we're going down here and leaving
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: some of that salary on the table to begin with,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: so that we're less likely to duplicate ourselves out there
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: with other lineup stands. That it gives us a little
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: bit of leverage as well when it comes to that
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: lineup construction. So you know, if you really wanted to
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: push it, really make sure that you had some leverage
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: there if you went to a pivot play down here
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: as your last min in so perhaps like a bridgeman,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: a grazierman. Really, any of the guys that aren't like
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: minus five minus six, they're going to be getting a
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: little bit more steam when it comes to that ownership.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Then you're for sure going to be fine when it
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: comes to some of that leverage. So that's how the
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: lineup construction for tomorrow differs from what we typically have
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: out here in this kind of slate. It's usually all
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: about the leverage, especially for rounds two and three, but
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: we don't have those placement points out there in play.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: But the weather is dictating a little bit of a
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: different kind of thought process. So that's how I'm approaching
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: this slate with a different mindset than what you'll typically
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: see out there on tour. And best of luck out
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: there with all the exposure that you guys are getting
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: to but it's over there on DraftKings with all your
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: your GPP exposure, any outright bets, maybe some placements that
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: you're sweating there over the weekend. Hopefully it treats you
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: guys nicely out there for all of your exposure and
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: for all the prop and bidding stuff over there for
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Saturday's round make sure to check out my YouTube page
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: later on, we're gonna be going live at seven pm
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Eastern time going through penlications stat averages from all these
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: given events. It'll be the main event this week. We
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: have the ult event over there at Myrtle Beach. Also
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the DP World Tour where we have props posted on
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: sites like Prize Picks and Underdog, So if you're on
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: those sites Underdog and Prize Picks, you want that kind
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: of reasoning, that kind of analysis over there for tomorrow,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: check out my YouTube channel for that. So again it's
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: she a sloop dfs over there on my channel at
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: seven pm Eastern time for all the betting stuff for Saturday.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: But as all I've got guys, I'll see if there's
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: any questions to go over. Got Nick down there. Hey,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: I did it earlier for you, Nick, so I'm happy
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: that you got in there early today and then go
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: coolect as well. I'm always showing up for these live streams,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: but it's all got best of luck out there for
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: all of your exposure, and we'll see you guys out
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: there for the Round four live stream tomorrow