Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | Waste Management PHX Open | February 4, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: All systems go clear. You lift up. What's up everyone?
- 0:37Speaker 1: Tyler Tambaline here aka totegn Tambo back for another edition
- 0:41Speaker 1: of our PGA DFS show Here on the Ship of
- 0:43Speaker 1: Nation YouTube station. Got my guy Hoopster here with me
- 0:46Speaker 1: is always going to break down all things Waste Management
- 0:48Speaker 1: Phoenix Open Before I get into it though, Ship a
- 0:51Speaker 1: Nation YouTube Station nine point six y five K. We're
- 0:55Speaker 1: very close. Only three hundred and fifty subscribers away from
- 0:59Speaker 1: ten thousand. Is free to subscribe. It's easy to do,
- 1:02Speaker 1: it takes two seconds. Please help us out if you ken.
- 1:05Speaker 1: It's a big time giveaway. When we get to ten thousand,
- 1:07Speaker 1: will give you away a nine hundred and ninety nine
- 1:09Speaker 1: dollars all access with Optimizer giveaway. But Hoopster bring you
- 1:13Speaker 1: in man Back for another week of golf. Rory got
- 1:15Speaker 1: the job done last week at the Pebble Beach and
- 1:18Speaker 1: now we're onto the fan favorite at the Waste Management
- 1:21Speaker 1: Phoenix Open, same weekend as the Super Bowl. Kind of
- 1:24Speaker 1: kicks golf off for everybody.
- 1:25Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, very funny event, obviously fun to watch,
- 1:28Speaker 2: fun to be there. I know you've been there at
- 1:30Speaker 2: least a couple of times. The field's pretty good, I'd say,
- 1:33Speaker 2: I mean, you know, some some top end guys and
- 1:36Speaker 2: then it does fall off pretty quickly, but we do
- 1:38Speaker 2: have some names here and seems like a lot of
- 1:40Speaker 2: these guys you know, good history. The course history is
- 1:44Speaker 2: kind of sticky, where like the same guys tend to
- 1:46Speaker 2: play well here every year, and to me, it's one
- 1:50Speaker 2: of those courses where everyone's kind of in play. I mean,
- 1:53Speaker 2: different skill sets can can potentially win here. So it's
- 1:56Speaker 2: a fun one. Definitely a fun one to watch. And
- 1:58Speaker 2: prize pools are big. They they bumped it up a
- 2:00Speaker 2: little bit this week for the waste management, so it's
- 2:04Speaker 2: one of my favorites and I can't wait to dive
- 2:07Speaker 2: in and talk through it.
- 2:09Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of good contest selection stuff out there
- 2:11Speaker 1: where you can work on sort of what you're looking
- 2:12Speaker 1: to get into, because like you said, the lottery is
- 2:15Speaker 1: much bigger. There's some good three and four max contests.
- 2:17Speaker 1: The single entries are nice. The two hunred dollars single
- 2:19Speaker 1: untry is fifty k up top one hundred dollars is
- 2:22Speaker 1: like a six hundred and sixty person, so it's a
- 2:25Speaker 1: solid sizing and payouts are good and all of that,
- 2:27Speaker 1: so lots of good contests to get into, even with
- 2:30Speaker 1: a big NFL week ahead, which we'll also have you
- 2:32Speaker 1: covered here over at the Nation, So we'll go through that,
- 2:35Speaker 1: we'll break it all down. A big topic of the
- 2:37Speaker 1: week hoop is going to be Scotty Scheffler, So maybe
- 2:40Speaker 1: before we get into a few other things, just the
- 2:42Speaker 1: grand scheme overview. One note, they brought in Scotty at
- 2:46Speaker 1: twelve thousand, and they did not bring back the five
- 2:49Speaker 1: K range, So that means the guys in the six
- 2:52Speaker 1: k's there's definitely cases to be made for and you
- 2:55Speaker 1: can easily play Scotty this week. So what's your grand
- 2:58Speaker 1: scheme overview for this event that you're seeing early on?
- 3:00Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean no five K. But I guess the
- 3:02Speaker 2: nice thing is if you are interested in Scotty, which
- 3:05Speaker 2: I imagine most people will be interested in Scotty, is there's
- 3:08Speaker 2: a gap there between him and the next guy, which
- 3:11Speaker 2: is Justin Thomas, and it's a fifteen hundred dollars gap.
- 3:15Speaker 2: So it is a big saving if you do go
- 3:18Speaker 2: down from Scotty to JT. Now, if it was all
- 3:22Speaker 2: pretty tight, you know, if it was Scotty and then
- 3:24Speaker 2: JT is only five hundred less and a Decky was
- 3:26Speaker 2: like seven hundred less. Scotty would be extremely highly owned.
- 3:29Speaker 2: So I think we are going to get a little
- 3:31Speaker 2: bit of a break in the ownership because of the
- 3:33Speaker 2: big gap, you know, the fifteen hundred and then no
- 3:36Speaker 2: five K range, which doesn't really matter when you're saying
- 3:39Speaker 2: like the five k range, but it does matter when
- 3:41Speaker 2: you start bumping everyone down in terms of where they are.
- 3:44Speaker 2: The upper sevens is now the lower sevens, and those
- 3:47Speaker 2: guys look way more appealing. So I think it's good.
- 3:51Speaker 2: You know, we're showing preliminary like right around thirty and man,
- 3:55Speaker 2: this guy came back looked totally fine. I mean, I
- 3:58Speaker 2: know a little bit. We we didn't have personally have
- 4:01Speaker 2: any issues with it, but some people there's some hesitation
- 4:03Speaker 2: to look totally fine. Finished eighth or ninth last week
- 4:07Speaker 2: was I think best in the field from from what
- 4:10Speaker 2: was it an approach or whatever. The statistics are so,
- 4:14Speaker 2: and it's a spot where he's had a lot of success.
- 4:16Speaker 2: I mean, he dominates here, so it's definitely a big
- 4:19Speaker 2: time talking point. Once you start going down, it does
- 4:22Speaker 2: quickly get uncomfortable with some of these price tags and
- 4:25Speaker 2: mean you see, you know we talked about our pre show,
- 4:27Speaker 2: Sam Burns at ten k that's kind of a little
- 4:29Speaker 2: bit of a sticker shock. And then even the upper sevens,
- 4:32Speaker 2: like you know, Corey Connor, the Gala, Benny On, Robert
- 4:36Speaker 2: McIntyre all in the nine k's. So I think it
- 4:40Speaker 2: is interesting in terms of roster construction, like what you do,
- 4:43Speaker 2: because it immediately starts looking overpriced. Even Jordan Speed, who
- 4:47Speaker 2: looked awful last week, eighty seven hundred, so he got
- 4:50Speaker 2: a he got an eight hundred dollars price increase from
- 4:53Speaker 2: last week. Jordan Speed, that is after looking really shitty.
- 4:56Speaker 2: So you know, it does get uncomfortable very quickly. You
- 5:00Speaker 2: start dropping down into the nines of the eights.
- 5:02Speaker 1: Poor Speif, Yeah, he just gets crushed. He did have
- 5:05Speaker 1: a five under bogie free round to round up the event,
- 5:08Speaker 1: but also no pressure when you're completely out of it,
- 5:10Speaker 1: literally like twenty strokes back or whatever it was at
- 5:13Speaker 1: that time. It was way off the lead. I remember
- 5:14Speaker 1: them showing like and Jordan Speed makes a birdie to
- 5:17Speaker 1: go under on the day and I'm like, he's plus
- 5:19Speaker 1: one and the leader is whatever they were at. It
- 5:21Speaker 1: was like an eighteen stroke difference it felt like. So
- 5:24Speaker 1: my takeaway would be, we'll talk about that and we
- 5:25Speaker 1: get there. I will say I was about to I
- 5:28Speaker 1: can't bet a shoeye on this because I can get
- 5:31Speaker 1: clipped hard on this. But I have a hot take
- 5:34Speaker 1: early on, and maybe it's not hot take. Maybe the
- 5:35Speaker 1: chat agrees with me. I don't know. I think Scotty
- 5:38Speaker 1: will be forty percent or more in the lottery, even
- 5:41Speaker 1: I think there's a few factors. One we talked about
- 5:43Speaker 1: the early one. It's not even about the fives. It's
- 5:45Speaker 1: more of the six has become a little more relevant.
- 5:47Speaker 1: People can just spread it out. I don't think there's
- 5:49Speaker 1: gonna be super high ownership in the lower six k's
- 5:51Speaker 1: or anything, but just noting it's easy to get there.
- 5:54Speaker 1: But the problem really lies in ten thousand dollars, Sam
- 5:58Speaker 1: Burns ninety seven underd dollars, Corey Cott your point nine k,
- 6:03Speaker 1: Robert McIntyre, Rasmus Hoguard for ninety two hundred and so
- 6:08Speaker 1: I actually think Scotty gets to forty percent. And when
- 6:10Speaker 1: we get to the dry run here, which I'll pull
- 6:13Speaker 1: up now over on ship at Nation dot com, we
- 6:15Speaker 1: can start there. Let's just flip the screens and see
- 6:19Speaker 1: this is the dry run. We are getting ninety nine
- 6:22Speaker 1: point three to three on one hundred and fifty lineups.
- 6:25Speaker 1: We've already got them at thirty percent, and you're correct
- 6:28Speaker 1: on the statement of like at least they still made
- 6:30Speaker 1: them fifteen hundred more than j T. The problem is
- 6:34Speaker 1: going back here if we go to the optimizer real quick.
- 6:37Speaker 1: And so why you want to have an optimizer for
- 6:38Speaker 1: sure is you can see this stuff. You have sixty
- 6:41Speaker 1: nine hundred even if you're playing both of them, and
- 6:43Speaker 1: you'll you'll see later on there's definitely golf for sixty
- 6:45Speaker 1: five to sixty nine hundred, so you only really need
- 6:48Speaker 1: to make one or maybe two of them work. And
- 6:51Speaker 1: nobody really likes this nine and eight K range because
- 6:54Speaker 1: the eight K, don't forget, is like even starting at
- 6:57Speaker 1: the top in nine Bobby mack Speith at eight, Grazerman
- 7:01Speaker 1: coming off a withdraw for a hand injury. You know
- 7:04Speaker 1: at eighty six, who knows how actually bad it was,
- 7:06Speaker 1: just saying Wyndham Clark, no way Nick Taylor could win
- 7:09Speaker 1: two years in a row at eighty four hundred, Cam
- 7:11Speaker 1: Young eighty one. So realistically, people are gonna be just fine.
- 7:14Speaker 1: And even if they drop from j T, I don't
- 7:17Speaker 1: know who it would be, someone that they go to more.
- 7:20Speaker 1: I don't know, like Sung Jay. Well, now you're at
- 7:22Speaker 1: seven fifty that you can get to so we'll see.
- 7:25Speaker 1: But any thoughts on that real quick before we keep
- 7:27Speaker 1: it moving. The chat seems to think a little bit right,
- 7:31Speaker 1: So yeah, agree.
- 7:33Speaker 2: Just a weird thought kind of popping my head after
- 7:36Speaker 2: you were talking through all that, and it makes sense,
- 7:39Speaker 2: But like what percentage of DFS events last year like
- 7:42Speaker 2: that Scotty was a part of that Scotty was in?
- 7:45Speaker 2: Was he optimal? Like what percent is? It's probably like
- 7:48Speaker 2: what thirty forty percent or so? Right it was?
- 7:51Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know it off the top of my head,
- 7:53Speaker 1: but I know to just say one thing quick. You're
- 7:55Speaker 1: you're our guy. Kenny in the discord who plays all
- 7:58Speaker 1: the high stays all he said like he made a
- 7:59Speaker 1: big mistake by trying to fade him for that reason.
- 8:02Speaker 1: A lot of the stuff last year, and he said
- 8:04Speaker 1: it's crazy when you look at his top ten percent rate.
- 8:07Speaker 2: Yeah, it's even last week.
- 8:08Speaker 1: It's only because Rory won.
- 8:10Speaker 2: Rory won. Yeah, if Rory doesn't win, you still need
- 8:12Speaker 2: Scotty if Rory finishes below Scotty, you still you need
- 8:15Speaker 2: Scotty last week? Right? You probably do because.
- 8:18Speaker 1: There were some version of both because the scoring. But yeah,
- 8:20Speaker 1: it's pretty crazy to think about, Yes, what if you?
- 8:22Speaker 2: I mean so in my head, I'm thinking, like, what
- 8:24Speaker 2: if you just make a point if you think Scotty
- 8:26Speaker 2: has a similar season as he did last year, which
- 8:28Speaker 2: there's a lot of variables and things could change, just
- 8:31Speaker 2: locking if you just went went about just locking Scotty
- 8:34Speaker 2: every single week, Like, would you make money would you not?
- 8:37Speaker 2: It's an interesting thing to talk about, you know, if
- 8:38Speaker 2: you just put him in every single lineup for the
- 8:41Speaker 2: rest of assuming you're gonna obviously assume he's gonna have
- 8:43Speaker 2: a similar season, if not better, Like would you make
- 8:46Speaker 2: money by just hitting that lock button if he had
- 8:48Speaker 2: a similar season that he did last year. It's just
- 8:51Speaker 2: a thought kind of going through my head because I'm
- 8:52Speaker 2: considering this week, if he does get to that forty
- 8:55Speaker 2: to fifty, just hitting that lock button and just saying,
- 8:57Speaker 2: you know what, it's just Scotty this week, and if
- 9:00Speaker 2: it's not him, that's fine, we'll catch him at a
- 9:03Speaker 2: different week. But I just struggle to find in order
- 9:07Speaker 2: for him if he finishes eighth this week in order
- 9:09Speaker 2: order for him to not be optimal like Thomas or
- 9:13Speaker 2: Maziama or Burns would have to to win it and
- 9:17Speaker 2: it would just have to like the numbers wouldn't match
- 9:19Speaker 2: up or some so, I don't know, like I'm considering
- 9:21Speaker 2: hitting the lock button. He looked great to me. He
- 9:24Speaker 2: looked at you know, phenomenal, just smooth, like no mistakes,
- 9:27Speaker 2: plays well here. It's a thought going through my head
- 9:30Speaker 2: like this weekend and kind of moving forward in these
- 9:33Speaker 2: in these situations, I mean, he's less than three to
- 9:35Speaker 2: one to win the event.
- 9:36Speaker 1: It's insane, right, That's why I think the forty percent stands,
- 9:39Speaker 1: and maybe it won't even be a crazy take by
- 9:40Speaker 1: tomorrow when even more content comes up. I just think
- 9:43Speaker 1: right now everyone's projecting him safe at thirty. I think
- 9:45Speaker 1: it's over forty. And I also say we called it
- 9:48Speaker 1: last week, but I mean just so did everybody wasn't
- 9:50Speaker 1: like he wasn't own by point being though, if him
- 9:53Speaker 1: knocking off the rust is coming back to a signature
- 9:57Speaker 1: event with a pretty solid field and still leading the
- 10:00Speaker 1: field in approach, playing what looked like his C plus
- 10:03Speaker 1: game and still finishing top ten to that like looking
- 10:06Speaker 1: like what Rory had to do to win. We're talking
- 10:09Speaker 1: about hold on one, like all these other things that
- 10:11Speaker 1: he had happened. This guy barely played good and won.
- 10:14Speaker 1: He dominates here, He's always putted well here. I'm sure
- 10:17Speaker 1: people will look for reasons, but maybe the answer is
- 10:19Speaker 1: just to do that with Scotty and move on.
- 10:21Speaker 2: Like you said, yeah, but I do agree with you, Like,
- 10:24Speaker 2: it's definitely gonna be higher than thirty just because what
- 10:27Speaker 2: are the builds without him? You're gonna have to really
- 10:29Speaker 2: like Justin Thomas at ten to five, that's, you know,
- 10:32Speaker 2: more expensive than he probably was all last season. Like
- 10:34Speaker 2: JT at ten to five, that's more expensive than he
- 10:37Speaker 2: was all Steason Hideki ten two, Sam Burns ten k,
- 10:41Speaker 2: and then the nine K range everyone looks over priced.
- 10:43Speaker 2: So Scotty is going to be higher owned, I think,
- 10:46Speaker 2: than anybody. Even if some of these numbers bump up
- 10:48Speaker 2: to by tomorrow Tomorrow night and people are showing thirty five,
- 10:51Speaker 2: thirty six, I'm with you. I think it is going
- 10:53Speaker 2: to be around forty because the alternative builds just don't
- 10:57Speaker 2: look all that appealing. You're gonna take Scotty and like whatever,
- 11:01Speaker 2: take Scotty in a random I'm just plugging Sea woo
- 11:04Speaker 2: can and that is like, what is that twenty twenty thousand,
- 11:09Speaker 2: So we're gonna do some rough math here on the fly.
- 11:11Speaker 2: So that's twenty. Your other alternative would be like.
- 11:15Speaker 1: Well, I got it here, I'll put up on the
- 11:17Speaker 1: screen Scotty Sung. You said Scotty Sea Woo right, yeah,
- 11:19Speaker 1: yeah yeah, so five hundred left. Yeah, and so you're
- 11:24Speaker 1: talking about like plugging the in between or something.
- 11:27Speaker 2: Yeah, JT and what is it? JT and uh de gala,
- 11:31Speaker 2: Like everyone's gonna definitely want Scotty, And.
- 11:35Speaker 1: Well it's basically JT and sung. J would be like
- 11:37Speaker 1: the counterpoint, Yeah, seventy five hundred ish.
- 11:40Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe it's somewhat bad. I mean, people are just
- 11:43Speaker 2: gonna want Scotty. I guess it really doesn't even matter
- 11:46Speaker 2: the two v two. So people are gonna want Scotty
- 11:48Speaker 2: when it comes comes down to it.
- 11:49Speaker 1: This is the thing. This if you look at like
- 11:51Speaker 1: the Vegas odds and the win equity and stuff like that,
- 11:53Speaker 1: Scotty has like twenty five percent iniquity himself. These two
- 11:57Speaker 1: combined for like eight or nine percent like, I don't
- 12:00Speaker 1: know how you're making it. You're gonna have to make
- 12:01Speaker 1: it up via six to six. Hope he doesn't do well.
- 12:04Speaker 1: Hope multiples of these guys outscore him. All of that
- 12:07Speaker 1: and more so you're gonna have to find ways to
- 12:09Speaker 1: get different with Scotty and just find him in there.
- 12:11Speaker 1: That's my opinion on it. So don't think there's any
- 12:14Speaker 1: shocker there. But I thought it was a good discussion
- 12:16Speaker 1: to have off the top, because it's not who you play,
- 12:18Speaker 1: it's how you play them. What are your thoughts on
- 12:21Speaker 1: getting different with Scotty? Like, what do you think the
- 12:23Speaker 1: most common Scotty build is? And I'll throw it to
- 12:26Speaker 1: the chat as well, what do you guys think the
- 12:28Speaker 1: lineups start with when they go to Scotty? Because we
- 12:31Speaker 1: have it here.
- 12:32Speaker 2: I think I think it's Scotty and mid tier bunch
- 12:37Speaker 2: of mid tier guys, Scotty and probably maybe eight. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
- 12:42Speaker 2: that's what it's gonna be. Because you look at the
- 12:44Speaker 2: guys in the upper sevens or low eight, like you
- 12:47Speaker 2: look at the names, I don't look all that much
- 12:49Speaker 2: different than the guys in the Night k Rage. You're
- 12:50Speaker 2: not really sacrificing much in projection, Like we have our
- 12:55Speaker 2: preliminary projections up you look at the nine k range
- 12:57Speaker 2: versus some of these guys in the seven very so
- 13:00Speaker 2: similar per projections and very similar like Vegas odds to win,
- 13:04Speaker 2: and people are gonna see that. So it is. I
- 13:06Speaker 2: think it's gonna be Scotty balance is what a lot
- 13:08Speaker 2: of people do, and avoid probably the nine k range
- 13:13Speaker 2: and avoid definitely like the upper eight k range. I
- 13:15Speaker 2: think that's gonna be a very common Scotti type team
- 13:19Speaker 2: this week.
- 13:19Speaker 1: Yeah, if you look at a dry run here who
- 13:21Speaker 1: because of this. That's the other thing that Scotty does,
- 13:23Speaker 1: right You gotta remember that he certainly takes away from
- 13:25Speaker 1: it right away, but like almost no Matziama, no JT,
- 13:29Speaker 1: a little bit of Sung Jay at four percent. And
- 13:31Speaker 1: when you're talking about those other guys up top, and
- 13:33Speaker 1: I don't even see Sam Burns, I imagine just because
- 13:36Speaker 1: his price tag of ten thousand, it's gonna be very
- 13:38Speaker 1: hard to get to him. And if you go back
- 13:40Speaker 1: to our preliminary run, yeah, he's just a lower projection
- 13:45Speaker 1: then those guys. It's gonna be really tough to do.
- 13:47Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't have any other thoughts on that
- 13:49Speaker 1: but I just think you're looking at it from that perspective.
- 13:50Speaker 1: That's what it's gonna come down to. I will show
- 13:53Speaker 1: it off quickly because we presented it last week and
- 13:55Speaker 1: we left it blank again. But as we talked about
- 13:57Speaker 1: last week, the new slate plan that we put up,
- 14:00Speaker 1: a lot of people loved it. Right. We had all
- 14:02Speaker 1: the different cores in there for just you and I.
- 14:04Speaker 1: We had our tier ranking slash player pool section where
- 14:07Speaker 1: we split it up by price and give you all
- 14:08Speaker 1: the extras. It's more for someone who doesn't have a
- 14:11Speaker 1: lot of time to put into their own process so
- 14:13Speaker 1: they don't play a lot of golf. We have the stone,
- 14:16Speaker 1: we have the projections and ownership. We have our value
- 14:18Speaker 1: report which is free. You can check out the course
- 14:21Speaker 1: fit rankings. Then of course Djens notes and scorecard. But
- 14:24Speaker 1: coming back this week will be the weather, the ownership
- 14:27Speaker 1: thoughts by range, and then the roster construction thoughts. So
- 14:30Speaker 1: I'll be filling out more once I complete this show,
- 14:33Speaker 1: go through all the roster construction with Mayo tomorrow and
- 14:35Speaker 1: then get to my final thoughts that will all be
- 14:37Speaker 1: in here on the slate breakdown and give you some
- 14:39Speaker 1: different ideas on how you can go about using Scotty
- 14:42Speaker 1: that I come up with, but anything else you want
- 14:43Speaker 1: to talk about at the top with Scotty if not,
- 14:46Speaker 1: it is JT Hedeki and Sam Burns right behind him there.
- 14:51Speaker 2: Yeah, you know Sam Burns at ten kid definitely looks
- 14:57Speaker 2: like a severely overpriced guy and me and you saw
- 15:01Speaker 2: it in that dry run build. Like if you do
- 15:03Speaker 2: get some Sam Burns are probably sacrificing some Scottie Scheffler
- 15:08Speaker 2: shares and that's something I'm just not willing to do.
- 15:10Speaker 2: I know Burns has played well here and he's been
- 15:13Speaker 2: decent lately. He had the twenty ninth at the American,
- 15:15Speaker 2: expressed the twenty second at the AT and T last week.
- 15:20Speaker 2: I just don't think he can do it this week.
- 15:23Speaker 2: So for me, like, if Burns beats me, he beats me,
- 15:26Speaker 2: and I'm fine with that. And then like the JT
- 15:29Speaker 2: and in Hideki thing is someone a JT scored phenomenally well,
- 15:33Speaker 2: like the Birdies were all I mean Birdie's eagles. Like
- 15:36Speaker 2: he definitely outscored his finishing position. He finished what forty
- 15:41Speaker 2: forty eighth, But like I think his DK scoring and
- 15:44Speaker 2: I'm sure someone has in the chat had to be
- 15:46Speaker 2: like top fifteen maybe, if not more. I mean, it
- 15:48Speaker 2: was just a ton of scoring, a lot of birdie bogie,
- 15:51Speaker 2: eagle bogee, double bogie. I think he had a triple
- 15:54Speaker 2: as well, but the scoring was very good. And then
- 15:57Speaker 2: maziama as always play well here and the course sets
- 16:01Speaker 2: up well for him, and he was not great last week.
- 16:03Speaker 2: I mean, if deciding between the two, probably lean a ducky.
- 16:11Speaker 2: But I mean the main takeaway for me is I'm
- 16:14Speaker 2: just going to take the stand this week, and I
- 16:16Speaker 2: am not sacrificing Scotty shares to get JT at ten
- 16:19Speaker 2: to five or Hideki at ten to two. So at
- 16:22Speaker 2: the end of the day, I'll probably be underweight on
- 16:25Speaker 2: both those guys, potentially not even play them. I got
- 16:28Speaker 2: to see how it shakes I haven't built teams that
- 16:30Speaker 2: I'll kind of start tonight and then finalize everything tomorrow,
- 16:33Speaker 2: but I am not willing to sacrifice any Scotty shares
- 16:36Speaker 2: for Justin Thomas at ten to five or Hideki at
- 16:40Speaker 2: ten two. So I got to see how it all
- 16:41Speaker 2: shakes out. But my initial thoughts I'll probably be underweight,
- 16:46Speaker 2: if not fading one of those two. I'll probably play
- 16:48Speaker 2: one of the two for sure, could end up playing two,
- 16:51Speaker 2: could be underweight on one. But I'll be off of
- 16:53Speaker 2: burns for sure, so we'll see. I mean, you gotta
- 16:56Speaker 2: take some stance. That's the only way to do it.
- 16:57Speaker 2: But I am kind of leaning towards a very heavy
- 17:00Speaker 2: Scotty approach.
- 17:00Speaker 1: This week, we've got a Super Bowl show. We're going
- 17:03Speaker 1: to be recording it Friday afternoon. It will be live.
- 17:06Speaker 1: I think we said two pm Eastern. That will be
- 17:08Speaker 1: here on the channel. So you guys can mark your calendars.
- 17:10Speaker 1: Make sure you subscribe, because that's what gets you the notification.
- 17:13Speaker 1: All of our shows are free when it comes to that,
- 17:14Speaker 1: So what do you have an early take? Scotty wins
- 17:17Speaker 1: the waste Management, everyone's primed and pumped up, and then
- 17:20Speaker 1: Eagles win the super Bowl to bust all the I feel.
- 17:24Speaker 2: I was just thinking through this. I feel like if
- 17:26Speaker 2: you are doing this, if you're doing the Scotti and
- 17:28Speaker 2: then the super Bowl winner, like when you at least
- 17:32Speaker 2: put like a little sprinkle on the other side too,
- 17:35Speaker 2: Like if you're gonna do it, because the hard part
- 17:36Speaker 2: is getting Scotti to win. Like that's like he's facing
- 17:39Speaker 2: one hundred and what is one hundred and twenty two
- 17:41Speaker 2: in the field. How many in the field this week?
- 17:43Speaker 1: I think one hundred and thirty two with the last
- 17:45Speaker 1: three qualifiers.
- 17:46Speaker 2: So he's facing one hundred and thirty two guys. He
- 17:47Speaker 2: needs to beat one hundred and thirty two, which obviously
- 17:50Speaker 2: it's not one hundred and thirty two. There's a lot
- 17:52Speaker 2: of dead spots in there. But like, if you get
- 17:54Speaker 2: that part right and then you don't get the Super
- 17:56Speaker 2: Bowl win or you'd kind of be somewhat disappointing. So
- 17:58Speaker 2: what I'd personally do is if you are then I'd
- 18:00Speaker 2: go Scotti whichever team you actually think is gonna win,
- 18:03Speaker 2: and then I do a sprinkle of the other team
- 18:05Speaker 2: as well, because that would be somewhat disappointing to get
- 18:08Speaker 2: the Scotty thing right and then not the Super Bowl.
- 18:10Speaker 2: But for me, just a little preview, I would I
- 18:12Speaker 2: would do the chief side.
- 18:14Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the chief side they're gonna take is
- 18:16Speaker 1: then they could sprinkle on the underdog on the money
- 18:18Speaker 1: line with Eagles. But your favorite thing is gonna happen.
- 18:21Speaker 1: All these tickets are going to exist, everyone's gonna have
- 18:24Speaker 1: that one ready. They're gonna literally hedge themselves completely even
- 18:28Speaker 1: on the bet not show their Eagles ticket if the
- 18:32Speaker 1: if the Chiefs win and say, show the big chief
- 18:34Speaker 1: Scottie Parlay that everybody got and then they'll have their
- 18:37Speaker 1: Eagles ticket where they lost all that profit back that
- 18:39Speaker 1: you don't know about. But if that happens the other way,
- 18:42Speaker 1: they'll say, well, good thing I hedged and got the Eagles. Yeah,
- 18:45Speaker 1: good thing.
- 18:46Speaker 2: They always have the hedge bag. I always got the
- 18:48Speaker 2: hedge lined up and they always break even somehow. You know,
- 18:51Speaker 2: they made this bet to break even on the week.
- 18:54Speaker 2: They never have losing weeks. It's a it's a tough
- 18:56Speaker 2: team from those people, that is for sure.
- 18:59Speaker 1: It's my new favorite Hoop's favorite topic. But I guess
- 19:02Speaker 1: David brings up one thing that I will touch on
- 19:04Speaker 1: because we've definitely seen this script in the past, and
- 19:07Speaker 1: you know, like genre back in the Mexico Open things
- 19:10Speaker 1: like this, and I understand it. Those are like scoring events.
- 19:13Speaker 1: The one thing about this one, there is scoring out there,
- 19:15Speaker 1: and there will be. But I'm saying the only way
- 19:18Speaker 1: if like okay, if Justin Thomas Hideki Sung Jay Burn,
- 19:21Speaker 1: those guys are in the mix and hovering with Scotty,
- 19:25Speaker 1: there could be a problem with the Scotty stuff, and
- 19:28Speaker 1: the only problem might be is if you went too
- 19:30Speaker 1: far off the board at the bottom and those guys
- 19:32Speaker 1: missed the cut, or if you double stack Scotty up
- 19:35Speaker 1: top and went too risky, that could put you in
- 19:37Speaker 1: a position where you're gonna be compromised because not only
- 19:40Speaker 1: if a guy like JT. Decky burns him are lurking
- 19:44Speaker 1: and in the mix to win it, that hurts Scotty,
- 19:46Speaker 1: but also if a lot of those Scotty's bust up,
- 19:48Speaker 1: and that's why to hoops to one. If you're gonna
- 19:50Speaker 1: lock him or have a heavy dose, you're hopefully gonna
- 19:52Speaker 1: have more outs to the six to six lineups where
- 19:54Speaker 1: Scotty's likely to be the favorite all the way throughout
- 19:57Speaker 1: as long as he stays up there, because he should be.
- 20:00Speaker 1: But that was just a quick take on the low
- 20:02Speaker 1: end stuff. To Nick's question here, you don't need a
- 20:05Speaker 1: building sets if you're building with Scott, Like, if you're
- 20:08Speaker 1: taking one hundred percent Scotty, you're in that's one set.
- 20:10Speaker 1: I know what you're saying, splitting it. But if you
- 20:12Speaker 1: set it up in your optimizer to just cap Scotty
- 20:14Speaker 1: at sixty percent, I don't lock guys. So I won't
- 20:16Speaker 1: lock Scotty this week. But if you play sixty percent Scotty,
- 20:20Speaker 1: you're just the other forty percent is your seconds, I mean,
- 20:22Speaker 1: non Scotty lineups. It does feel that way to talk
- 20:25Speaker 1: about it out loud, but that's not actually the case.
- 20:28Speaker 1: Risk versus reward. I think that's more than fine. Derek.
- 20:31Speaker 1: Shut up to Derek. I know he said earlier he's
- 20:33Speaker 1: on bathroom duty at the school this week, so he's
- 20:35Speaker 1: back in class. But bathroom duty, I don't even know.
- 20:37Speaker 2: Can we get a further I was. I saw that too,
- 20:39Speaker 2: and I was kind of wondering what bathroom duty it entails. Yeah,
- 20:43Speaker 2: like I'd like to get a little explanation. Maybe, I mean,
- 20:46Speaker 2: maybe I want an explanation. Maybe we don't want to know,
- 20:48Speaker 2: but I know, I don't know what age he teaches,
- 20:50Speaker 2: but like my daughter is now middle school age, and
- 20:55Speaker 2: the bathroom stuff sounds somewhat dangerous.
- 20:57Speaker 1: Dude, Yeah, I want to know what that's That was risky.
- 21:00Speaker 1: You gotta have like a chaperone with you in case.
- 21:03Speaker 1: Like that's Adams saying here too, like this is another thing.
- 21:06Speaker 1: This can go can go really good? Your favorite because
- 21:10Speaker 1: you got Scotty with another dude and you get the
- 21:12Speaker 1: low owned guys down low right. But it can also
- 21:14Speaker 1: go really bad if it forces double punt and a
- 21:17Speaker 1: lot of your double punt lineups end up five or six,
- 21:20Speaker 1: four or six whatever that might be.
- 21:21Speaker 2: Go ahead, Yeah, we got the explanation. Yeah, kids set
- 21:24Speaker 2: up fights selling drugs in the bat. Yeah, so I
- 21:28Speaker 2: get that. As having a middle school there, I fully
- 21:31Speaker 2: fully understand what that's all about. Now.
- 21:35Speaker 1: Ross said he said the same thing about Rory last
- 21:37Speaker 1: week and got punished. But as we always like to say,
- 21:39Speaker 1: you can get it back in showdown. That's that's the
- 21:41Speaker 1: key made it a profitable week overall.
- 21:43Speaker 2: So I do think the double studs probably you know
- 21:48Speaker 2: little less than we typically see. Even though you pulled
- 21:50Speaker 2: it up like you can make it happen, like you
- 21:52Speaker 2: still have if you go was it Scotty and JT
- 21:54Speaker 2: is like sixty nine hundred, you can make it happen.
- 21:57Speaker 2: I personally don't think people people will do it, but
- 22:00Speaker 2: I think it's going to be lower than we typically see.
- 22:02Speaker 2: I think the most common Scotty type build is the
- 22:04Speaker 2: one that you had pulled up where it's Scotty and
- 22:06Speaker 2: a bunch of seven K guys upper sevens, probably lower
- 22:09Speaker 2: eight type stuff. That's gonna be the common build. It's
- 22:13Speaker 2: not going to be completely uncommon to see Scotty and JT.
- 22:16Speaker 2: But I just don't think as many people will do
- 22:17Speaker 2: the double studs this week as we've seen in the past.
- 22:21Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's gonna have to involve something to
- 22:23Speaker 1: do with like a couple eight K guys or something,
- 22:25Speaker 1: because then you could get to just I guess the
- 22:27Speaker 1: biggest thing is going to be if a lot of
- 22:29Speaker 1: lineups are gonna have three to five seven K guys.
- 22:32Speaker 1: That's a first thought for me, obviously. I put all
- 22:33Speaker 1: this stuff in the slate plan over on ship Nation.
- 22:36Speaker 1: Is the way things come to me as the week
- 22:37Speaker 1: goes on, Like, that's certainly going to be a way
- 22:39Speaker 1: to look at it, because you see the lineups, they're
- 22:42Speaker 1: getting five seven K guys in a lot of people
- 22:45Speaker 1: will push it one level and be like, oh, let
- 22:47Speaker 1: me get a sixty nine hundred dollars guy in an
- 22:49Speaker 1: eight K flat guys. He didn't change shit. You put
- 22:51Speaker 1: an eight in front of one number and a six
- 22:53Speaker 1: in front of the other, but you didn't really move
- 22:55Speaker 1: off anything. You got to get a little bit, you know,
- 22:58Speaker 1: within that range, you got to get something that's a
- 23:01Speaker 1: bit unique. Like I'm just making something up here, but
- 23:03Speaker 1: I'm at the same seven thousand as a Scotty JT.
- 23:07Speaker 1: You gotta hope that Scotty Dust JT, the eight K
- 23:10Speaker 1: guys in the mid range eights that nobody can really
- 23:12Speaker 1: get to with super low ownership come through and then
- 23:15Speaker 1: you get three seven K guys or a one to
- 23:18Speaker 1: six two sevens at least, then you're on an actually
- 23:21Speaker 1: different build setup. So to me, that's just how I
- 23:24Speaker 1: would look at it. But yeah, I think that's the
- 23:26Speaker 1: case I'm looking at here. And some people like to
- 23:29Speaker 1: scale back on weeks like this, like, well, if it's
- 23:31Speaker 1: just gonna be a five man roster Scotty and whoever
- 23:34Speaker 1: gets the five right more variance, then you know that
- 23:36Speaker 1: take that going in. If you want to play less,
- 23:38Speaker 1: No one says you have to force action just.
- 23:40Speaker 2: Because or or build to beat that. Like if you
- 23:45Speaker 2: are in agreement that at Scotty, you know less than
- 23:48Speaker 2: half the field, more than half the field will probably
- 23:50Speaker 2: not be playing Scotty, so more than half the field,
- 23:53Speaker 2: and basically any contest the higher stake stuff you probably
- 23:55Speaker 2: it probably has a chance to get to fifty in
- 23:57Speaker 2: the higher stake stuff. But any other contest you're playing,
- 24:00Speaker 2: more than half the field is not playing Scotty, So yeah,
- 24:04Speaker 2: you look at it, it's like, oh, it's just five
- 24:05Speaker 2: v five, but not necessarily because again a majority of
- 24:09Speaker 2: the people are not going that route. So uh, if
- 24:12Speaker 2: you think it's Scotty this week, like, make sure to
- 24:14Speaker 2: get overweight like this for me personally, and I know
- 24:17Speaker 2: you build differently, and that's the beauty of dfs. Everyone
- 24:20Speaker 2: can do things their own way for me personally, if
- 24:23Speaker 2: you're playing them, I'd get a lot of his ass.
- 24:26Speaker 2: I'd get a lot of his mess.
- 24:27Speaker 1: Yeah. In the you know, our guy Kenny said, you
- 24:30Speaker 1: know I've arrived, the show can start. But in the
- 24:33Speaker 1: thundered home and stuff, I don't know who what do
- 24:35Speaker 1: you do that? Like, he's got to be eighty percent.
- 24:37Speaker 1: He could literally ninety percent in the thunder to what
- 24:39Speaker 1: do you do anything different the higher stakes that you
- 24:41Speaker 1: go over the smaller field, where then you at least
- 24:44Speaker 1: start to consider the value of a six to six
- 24:46Speaker 1: versus the value of Scotty winning in a four of
- 24:49Speaker 1: six or a five or six. Any thoughts there.
- 24:51Speaker 2: Yeah, curious Kenny's thoughts as well, because he's you know,
- 24:54Speaker 2: definitely in those streets more than I am nowadays. But yeah,
- 24:58Speaker 2: it makes it tough because I mean the number is
- 25:00Speaker 2: probably I guess in a thirty man Thunderdome or whatever
- 25:05Speaker 2: it is, I'm guessing probably sixty five percent Scottie, right,
- 25:08Speaker 2: I think that's probably pretty fair number. And again curious
- 25:10Speaker 2: see what Kenny says. But you know, it makes the
- 25:13Speaker 2: decision I think a little bit different than in a
- 25:15Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty man field, where we're probably looking
- 25:18Speaker 2: at I don't know, thirty seven, thirty eight. Like, it
- 25:22Speaker 2: makes the decision I think a little bit a little
- 25:24Speaker 2: bit different because you're playing one team. You know, you
- 25:28Speaker 2: have the chance to you know, be different than sixty
- 25:31Speaker 2: five percent of the field if you don't play him,
- 25:33Speaker 2: so it would be opposite. But you know, we're looking
- 25:35Speaker 2: at the best guy high in the world less than
- 25:38Speaker 2: three to one to win, and probably I agree it
- 25:41Speaker 2: could get close to forty, but probably realistically probably thirty
- 25:44Speaker 2: eight percent, i'd say, in like the big contest. So yeah,
- 25:49Speaker 2: I don't know, but it is a very important time.
- 25:50Speaker 2: It's the most important talking point of the week, like
- 25:53Speaker 2: how you handle them, what you do with them?
- 25:54Speaker 1: Yeah, twelve man field, he's a eighty nine. I could
- 25:56Speaker 1: see eighty for sure. In a twelve man field, there's
- 25:58Speaker 1: going to try and figure it out. Let all the
- 26:00Speaker 1: make mistakes. We've heard that be talked about a ton.
- 26:02Speaker 1: But were you trying to get were you trying to
- 26:05Speaker 1: give me two points on the shoe we bet and
- 26:07Speaker 1: say thirty eight, I'll take the over thirty eight in
- 26:10Speaker 1: the lottery.
- 26:11Speaker 2: No, that's not even a fun one though. Man, we
- 26:14Speaker 2: gotta find like some fun stuff that's not fun. Scotty
- 26:17Speaker 2: at thirty eight ver Scotty at forty is the same
- 26:19Speaker 2: damn thing.
- 26:20Speaker 1: Yeah, I know we're sweating Scotty thirty eight four or something.
- 26:24Speaker 1: Who knows what it actually comes in out, but I
- 26:25Speaker 1: think it's going to be very high again. One thing
- 26:28Speaker 1: just to take away, we've talked about this a ton
- 26:30Speaker 1: in the past. We talk a ton about process over
- 26:32Speaker 1: a ship in nation versus just pick some plays, is
- 26:34Speaker 1: if you are fading the win equity of Scotty, focus
- 26:38Speaker 1: on the six to six equity because you so your
- 26:40Speaker 1: only hope. I mean, you're already fading the guy that's
- 26:42Speaker 1: literally three to one to win the tournament. So just
- 26:44Speaker 1: keep that in mind. If you're fading Scotty, you're not
- 26:47Speaker 1: going to be able to make up the win equity.
- 26:48Speaker 1: It just doesn't exist. What you're going to be looking
- 26:50Speaker 1: for is you're hoping that he doesn't win, because that's
- 26:53Speaker 1: a good starting point for you. But you're also hoping
- 26:55Speaker 1: that a lot of the lineups with Scotty bust and
- 26:59Speaker 1: that you find line of that are different. So that's
- 27:01Speaker 1: kind of the conversation. Nobody knows, Like this question gets
- 27:03Speaker 1: asked all the time, nobody knows it's you're it's literally
- 27:06Speaker 1: up to you, and Justin's an awesome supporter of this show.
- 27:09Speaker 1: But to Hoop's point, if you're if you're gonna take
- 27:11Speaker 1: them on, you're you're taking them all in and single entry.
- 27:13Speaker 1: There's literally one option, lock or faith. You know, people,
- 27:17Speaker 1: I locked him this week. What'd you play one hundred
- 27:18Speaker 1: dollars single entry? Yeah, you played him this week versus
- 27:21Speaker 1: you hated him, didn't play him in single entry. But
- 27:24Speaker 1: you know what it is. I think we've done a
- 27:25Speaker 1: good job of breaking it down, what it looks like,
- 27:27Speaker 1: ways to go against it. We'll talk more through it
- 27:30Speaker 1: as you go to the next range. But I think
- 27:32Speaker 1: this next range segueing out who is why that original
- 27:36Speaker 1: thought came up for me. Sure, there's a couple of
- 27:38Speaker 1: guys in here you can make. You know, you can
- 27:40Speaker 1: make a case for anybody content exists for that reason.
- 27:43Speaker 1: I can tell you what's good about Sung Jay and
- 27:44Speaker 1: why I always love playing him. You can make a
- 27:46Speaker 1: case for Tom Kim Thigala almost winning here before. You know,
- 27:50Speaker 1: Bobby Mack and all these other guys, but they're not
- 27:53Speaker 1: gonna make up for Scotty. Now you're allowed to play
- 27:56Speaker 1: one of these guys with Scotty, And I think that
- 27:58Speaker 1: is where at least gets some one interesting from the
- 28:01Speaker 1: Scotty with five seven K guy builds, Because what does
- 28:05Speaker 1: Scotty Bobby Mack look like? Well, now you could you
- 28:09Speaker 1: got seventy two fifty, You could play a couple six's
- 28:11Speaker 1: high seven like. You could really do different things if
- 28:14Speaker 1: you do this. So what's your thoughts on this nine
- 28:17Speaker 1: K range?
- 28:19Speaker 2: The nine K range? Again, as soon as you get
- 28:21Speaker 2: down here, it starts to look like you know, prices,
- 28:24Speaker 2: you know, price takes where guys are a little little
- 28:26Speaker 2: over a little overpriced, you know, Sun Jay and nine
- 28:30Speaker 2: to eight, you know, doing shows with you weekly, you
- 28:33Speaker 2: know a lot of times multiple weeks, Like I just
- 28:35Speaker 2: have to be a Sunday guy because if it does hit,
- 28:37Speaker 2: I got to be there to celebrate with you. So
- 28:38Speaker 2: I'm always in on Sunday. Now. It wasn't. It got
- 28:41Speaker 2: rough there for a while last year, but you know
- 28:43Speaker 2: it's it's smoothed out a little bit, so I'm in there.
- 28:47Speaker 2: You know, Corey Connors at nine to seven typically like
- 28:51Speaker 2: Corey Connors. I typically don't like Corey Connors at like
- 28:54Speaker 2: nine to seven like Corey Connors to me, a lot
- 28:56Speaker 2: of times you're playing them. I want to play Corey
- 28:58Speaker 2: Connors for him to finish Top twenty, top fifteen, not
- 29:01Speaker 2: to you know, finish top ten and at ninety seven hundred,
- 29:04Speaker 2: like I got to see the top ten. I do
- 29:07Speaker 2: like Tom Kim, we talked about it a little bit
- 29:09Speaker 2: last week. You know, he finished seventh. Good with him
- 29:13Speaker 2: at ninety six the Gala. Something just doesn't seem right
- 29:16Speaker 2: to me with de Gala. You know, maybe hit him
- 29:18Speaker 2: up on Showdown as the week goes on, but not
- 29:20Speaker 2: super interested. Sepstraca though I've been ridding Stepstroc are going
- 29:23Speaker 2: to continue. I know he didn't get the job done
- 29:25Speaker 2: that last week, but he did win two weeks ago.
- 29:28Speaker 2: Last week, you know, there's a lot of guys in
- 29:30Speaker 2: contention there. I mean, so people want to say you
- 29:32Speaker 2: shit the better whatever. I don't think that's the case.
- 29:35Speaker 2: There's a lot of dudes in contention, and he's fighting
- 29:37Speaker 2: off probably ten guys to win that event. One of
- 29:40Speaker 2: the best guys in the world, you know, beat him.
- 29:43Speaker 2: That's fine. So Straca at nine to four still interested. Hoyguard,
- 29:48Speaker 2: Benyon McIntyre. I don't know. Out of those three, my
- 29:51Speaker 2: favorites probably Hoyguard, but I really don't know how much
- 29:54Speaker 2: I'll have in him. But my favorites for sure m
- 29:56Speaker 2: Kim and Straca in this range.
- 29:59Speaker 1: One thing I don't stand is like Corey Connors has
- 30:03Speaker 1: played here a bunch. He's one of the best ball
- 30:05Speaker 1: strikers going typically like you usually see really great numbers
- 30:08Speaker 1: out of him. He struggled last week bad, like really
- 30:11Speaker 1: bad round one round he lost over three strokes on
- 30:14Speaker 1: approach and it was pretty evenly spread out. It wasn't
- 30:16Speaker 1: like a couple bad holes where he went in the
- 30:18Speaker 1: water or went a rye off the tee or something
- 30:20Speaker 1: like that that caused him to be in a bad
- 30:22Speaker 1: place and then have a bad approach. It was really
- 30:24Speaker 1: rough overall, and he's never had a good result here
- 30:27Speaker 1: twenty eight to fifty a thirty eighth. He did have
- 30:29Speaker 1: a seventeenth back in twenty one, forty fifth before that. So,
- 30:32Speaker 1: like you said, can't see any ownership going a guy
- 30:35Speaker 1: like him, very tricky to get to him at like
- 30:36Speaker 1: a ninety seven hund dollars price tag, and I would
- 30:38Speaker 1: take my chances again on my guy Sungjay over him
- 30:41Speaker 1: right there. Tom Kim plays slow as shit, but he
- 30:44Speaker 1: is still usually a pretty good ball striker, and seventh
- 30:47Speaker 1: place last week, seventeenth here last year seems to be
- 30:50Speaker 1: okay on the stats there. Thigala has been pretty good here,
- 30:53Speaker 1: fifth and third and two of the last three years.
- 30:56Speaker 1: That one year close called down the stretch.
- 30:58Speaker 2: And when he hit in the water right on seventeen
- 31:01Speaker 2: rough bounce too, man, Yeah that's right.
- 31:03Speaker 1: Yeah, he was like crying after and I get it
- 31:06Speaker 1: because it was close to a wind, but it was
- 31:07Speaker 1: like that hole is so fun because.
- 31:09Speaker 2: You should take that hole.
- 31:11Speaker 1: Yeah, you should take it on though, and he did
- 31:13Speaker 1: it just right, and it literally just somehow kicked super
- 31:17Speaker 1: left off. The bounce that he got it was so brutal,
- 31:19Speaker 1: and I was like, man, it wasn't like Medo Pereira
- 31:23Speaker 1: on the tee at the seventy second hole of the Major,
- 31:26Speaker 1: where it's like, okay, you just pure You saw it
- 31:28Speaker 1: in his swing.
- 31:29Speaker 2: In slow motion swing it looks super weird. That was
- 31:31Speaker 2: like an awkward looking swing, like, yeah.
- 31:34Speaker 1: He blew it, right, he blew it. I thought the
- 31:36Speaker 1: Gallas shot was fine, got a bad bounce and then
- 31:39Speaker 1: obviously he didn't recover and that was unfortunate. But again,
- 31:42Speaker 1: if you want to take a risk on him, he's
- 31:43Speaker 1: been playing pretty poorly, so I don't know, it's tough.
- 31:46Speaker 1: But you talked about Sep. Sep would be the guy
- 31:48Speaker 1: here right playing really good golf right now. I like
- 31:52Speaker 1: Sep no matter what. And I think the ownership, if
- 31:54Speaker 1: it's going to anybody here, is Sung Jay and Sep,
- 31:57Speaker 1: and I'm okay with that. I feel like that might
- 31:58Speaker 1: be correct. I don't think just going back to the
- 32:01Speaker 1: build here real quick, if you take out dude.
- 32:04Speaker 2: I think that is an interesting talking point on Stepstraka
- 32:07Speaker 2: real quick, because last week he did not have much
- 32:08Speaker 2: ownership coming off the win. Now he's ninety ninety four,
- 32:12Speaker 2: I have a feeling that it could be lower than
- 32:15Speaker 2: what we're showing ten initially. Like I wouldn't be surprised
- 32:18Speaker 2: if it is lower. To be honest with you, he
- 32:20Speaker 2: was eight k last week.
- 32:21Speaker 1: Yeah, well no, I was just gonna say, you're right.
- 32:24Speaker 1: But that's also what we got to wait and see
- 32:25Speaker 1: for the.
- 32:26Speaker 2: Setup off the field things people are gonna say ninety
- 32:29Speaker 2: four per sep Like he's a guy that we're typically
- 32:31Speaker 2: paying seventy five for. Now we're paying ninety four for him.
- 32:35Speaker 2: Like this is the spot where I'm out. I think
- 32:37Speaker 2: a lot of people will have that mindset.
- 32:40Speaker 1: And Rinz trying to bring back old jokes here. EVR
- 32:43Speaker 1: will be coming up later. But anytime I think my
- 32:45Speaker 1: grandmother Walker is going slow. Yeah. There was a thing
- 32:47Speaker 1: about like an old shot clock thing with Colin Moricwi
- 32:51Speaker 1: the other day and he called out Tom Kim even
- 32:53Speaker 1: back then. So Scotty's first career win at twenty five
- 32:57Speaker 1: to one, Yeah that.
- 32:58Speaker 2: Was what was Yeah, sounds like something I might have said.
- 33:04Speaker 1: Ye, there's there's hoop a golf betting tout now Victory lapping.
- 33:07Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I probably said that, let's see the ticket hoop,
- 33:10Speaker 1: Let's see.
- 33:11Speaker 2: That the archives, see if I can produce tickets.
- 33:16Speaker 1: For that one. The Yeah, I want to see this too,
- 33:19Speaker 1: and I do just want to see going back. And
- 33:21Speaker 1: that's what I was trying to look at. If you
- 33:22Speaker 1: take out Scotty, like, I just can't see anybody getting
- 33:25Speaker 1: to something like this. We'll have to see. But man,
- 33:28Speaker 1: you can't really get anything. Who's the other guy we
- 33:30Speaker 1: said in this range? Sung Jay step Oh, Tom Kim, Yeah,
- 33:35Speaker 1: I mean you got seventy one hundred. I don't know
- 33:38Speaker 1: if Im, Kim and Straka is making up for Scotty
- 33:40Speaker 1: Scheffler alone. So that's gonna be the tricky part, right,
- 33:44Speaker 1: It's it's all gonna be what what happens with Scotty.
- 33:46Speaker 1: But even looking at different ways to build for you
- 33:48Speaker 1: guys and try to get ideas, that is what you're
- 33:50Speaker 1: up against, and it didn't really get like what died
- 33:53Speaker 1: to give you. You still land on three seven K guys
- 33:56Speaker 1: or a six K guy with two seven so it's
- 33:57Speaker 1: not like you're that far off the beaten out of
- 34:00Speaker 1: that twelve K price tag. And while you got to
- 34:02Speaker 1: keep thinking about that when you're building, if you go
- 34:05Speaker 1: two of them some Jay and Sep. That is where
- 34:10Speaker 1: the build can get different. This is where I would
- 34:12Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's right. I'm just trying to frame
- 34:14Speaker 1: this up. If you somehow believe this to be a thing,
- 34:17Speaker 1: and whoever your two are, pick your two. The only
- 34:20Speaker 1: thing different about this I can say, Hoop is you're
- 34:22Speaker 1: hoping on Scotty to go down. You're hoping on Scotty
- 34:25Speaker 1: to go down, and the guys that you play with
- 34:28Speaker 1: them not to come with him, like you're hoping for
- 34:30Speaker 1: five and six is four or sixes. You're hoping for
- 34:32Speaker 1: the chalk with Scotty to bust up.
- 34:34Speaker 2: So you have to really Scotty and another upper seven
- 34:38Speaker 2: K guy or these two dudes. That's like the two
- 34:41Speaker 2: v two. That's how the builds a little bit different.
- 34:43Speaker 1: You know, yes, good way of putting it, actually perfect
- 34:45Speaker 1: way of putting it. It's that's where the consideration happens.
- 34:49Speaker 1: And that's where you got to make that decision, because
- 34:51Speaker 1: it now.
- 34:51Speaker 2: Becomes to be the build if you run it through
- 34:53Speaker 2: an optimizer, Like if you just run an optimizer, that
- 34:56Speaker 2: is going to be the very common build Scotty with
- 34:58Speaker 2: all those upper seven K guys, because I mean we
- 35:00Speaker 2: got yeah, those upper seven K guys projected very similar
- 35:04Speaker 2: to the nine K guys, and that is what's you know,
- 35:07Speaker 2: going to be produced in an optimizer that is going
- 35:09Speaker 2: to be the common build.
- 35:11Speaker 1: So four sixty seven and we got different variations of
- 35:15Speaker 1: it right now, okay, four sixty seven and we got
- 35:18Speaker 1: different variations. If there was a nine K guy that's
- 35:21Speaker 1: going to be popular, who do you have right now
- 35:24Speaker 1: that's going to be the guy in the pair them
- 35:25Speaker 1: with Sung Jay?
- 35:26Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yep. Then you got seven K that's going
- 35:34Speaker 2: to be probably like one six K then back into
- 35:37Speaker 2: the sevens.
- 35:38Speaker 1: So you can get it easily like four seven was
- 35:41Speaker 1: the number and you're still getting it. This is just
- 35:43Speaker 1: to look at it right quick. But you got you
- 35:46Speaker 1: got Scotty Sung Jy. You gotta go down to these
- 35:49Speaker 1: two seven K guys, which Homo will get to when
- 35:51Speaker 1: we get there. But this is more important. I think
- 35:52Speaker 1: that's why we try and tell you guys with this show,
- 35:54Speaker 1: instead of just giving you every pick in the range
- 35:56Speaker 1: and all this stuff, we talk through it and how
- 35:59Speaker 1: can we apply to DFS what we're actually playing this
- 36:02Speaker 1: week in the game. We're up against because nobody knows
- 36:05Speaker 1: how any golfer is actually gonna do. That's a secret
- 36:07Speaker 1: for you out there right quick. It's all about the
- 36:09Speaker 1: field we're up against, how they're playing it, and how
- 36:12Speaker 1: we can attack them for all the money this week.
- 36:14Speaker 1: This is the thing, though, Hoop, I don't think people
- 36:16Speaker 1: give a shit about Kevin You and Patrick Rodgers. Those
- 36:19Speaker 1: are just two more seven K guys that happened to
- 36:21Speaker 1: have a six in front of them. So it does
- 36:23Speaker 1: show that this type of build would be sort of
- 36:25Speaker 1: probably the second most popular, right Scotty with one nine
- 36:28Speaker 1: k yep and then filling out the rest of it.
- 36:30Speaker 1: So I don't think there's any surprise there. I think
- 36:32Speaker 1: it's gonna be if we go back, you can just
- 36:34Speaker 1: play around with it for two seconds. Who is take
- 36:36Speaker 1: us into the eight K range, give me your thoughts
- 36:38Speaker 1: on the range, and then I'll try and run it
- 36:40Speaker 1: that way. Let's do that way. Talk to me about
- 36:42Speaker 1: these AK guys.
- 36:43Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you look at the top and you
- 36:45Speaker 2: know for me, it's I struggled with a lot of
- 36:47Speaker 2: these guys at the top of the AK range. Like
- 36:49Speaker 2: Kidiyama eighty nine hundred, he has not been playing well
- 36:54Speaker 2: matv McNeely eighty eight. Jordan Speith, like we talked about,
- 36:57Speaker 2: he was seventy nine hundred last week I took I
- 37:00Speaker 2: took a shot at him, had some teams with him.
- 37:03Speaker 2: Obviously did not work out well, did not play very well.
- 37:06Speaker 2: Like you said, he did turn it on round four,
- 37:08Speaker 2: but completely out of contention, nothing to play for, probably
- 37:11Speaker 2: just flag hunting at that point. Grazerman, I believe it
- 37:15Speaker 2: was like a hand issue that he w de'd last week.
- 37:18Speaker 2: He was not playing well prior to that. That's a
- 37:20Speaker 2: little scary. Wyndham Clark has not been playing well, so
- 37:23Speaker 2: for me like very interested though in the bottom eight
- 37:27Speaker 2: k range. Nick Taylor is I believe he won was
- 37:30Speaker 2: it He won here last year and he's always played well.
- 37:33Speaker 2: Eighty four and playing solid golf. Louke Clanton at eighty
- 37:36Speaker 2: three I think is an interesting play. But Tia, I
- 37:39Speaker 2: don't mind at eighty two, and then JT post him
- 37:43Speaker 2: crazy because JT posts and usually a pretty damn good putter.
- 37:46Speaker 2: Struggling with the putter right now. But if he can
- 37:49Speaker 2: find that putter, like I think this is of course
- 37:51Speaker 2: that he can definitely play well at so in on
- 37:53Speaker 2: him and then seaw Kim. I think eight K for
- 37:55Speaker 2: seaw Kim is a solid finish twelfth last week, and
- 37:58Speaker 2: I know he's had some success here as well. So
- 38:01Speaker 2: for me, it's like polar opposite. It's like not much
- 38:03Speaker 2: interest at all in the upper eight, but those lower
- 38:06Speaker 2: eights I like quite a bit.
- 38:08Speaker 1: Yeah, I never fill out a full one, but people
- 38:10Speaker 1: can put two and two together. It's not sneaky to
- 38:14Speaker 1: do this, but at least it gets you completely off
- 38:16Speaker 1: the seven ks. So I'm not gonna say it's not good.
- 38:18Speaker 1: I'm just saying I picked the most popular and the
- 38:21Speaker 1: most what you would want to do in this spot.
- 38:24Speaker 1: But just an example hoop where you can break free
- 38:26Speaker 1: from it. You saw in the in build what it
- 38:28Speaker 1: looked like, and it landed on two six k golfers.
- 38:31Speaker 1: You can still land on the two six k golfers,
- 38:34Speaker 1: play three eight k's and just to get a rough projection,
- 38:38Speaker 1: what is it here? You know? Nice for eighty seven?
- 38:42Speaker 1: I mean it's got to be about the same projection, right,
- 38:44Speaker 1: It's it's pretty damn close to the same projection we
- 38:46Speaker 1: were just talking about. So I don't know, It's not
- 38:49Speaker 1: like you can get a ton of different ways there.
- 38:51Speaker 1: It's just you're kind of trading off when we get
- 38:53Speaker 1: there the bottom or sorry, the upper seven k range
- 38:57Speaker 1: for the lower eight K range, and we'll talk about
- 38:59Speaker 1: that in a I'll just look at it quickly here
- 39:01Speaker 1: to see. I know some people are betting mcneelly this week,
- 39:05Speaker 1: so I would suspect if anybody gets a little bit
- 39:07Speaker 1: in the top range, it's McNeely. I don't think anyone
- 39:09Speaker 1: is worried about chasing speeth at eighty seven hundred after
- 39:12Speaker 1: a pretty rough outing and one good round.
- 39:15Speaker 2: You know some people are betting. Are you saying that
- 39:16Speaker 2: they are recommending to bet him or they're actually betting
- 39:19Speaker 2: it themselves exactly.
- 39:20Speaker 1: I didn't see any tickets, so you're correct. There's people
- 39:23Speaker 1: saying they're betting Maverick McNeel this week, which probably is
- 39:25Speaker 1: crazy in its own right, but who knows, And so
- 39:28Speaker 1: it would just make me think that translates a little
- 39:30Speaker 1: bit looking at his odds. Nick Taylor Akshay is also
- 39:35Speaker 1: I will say about Okshay. One guy that's not here
- 39:37Speaker 1: that usually has been out here and surprising is Tony Fenow.
- 39:40Speaker 1: But Tony Fenow was always a fan favorite fowler who
- 39:43Speaker 1: is here Hadeki. We didn't. We didn't talk a ton
- 39:46Speaker 1: about this earlier, but someone mentioned the chat the guys
- 39:48Speaker 1: that have played well at this course and always got
- 39:52Speaker 1: some ownership for that reason. Bottia still you know, Botia, Thigala,
- 39:57Speaker 1: some of these guys here, grazermen before his injury, Clanton
- 40:00Speaker 1: even as an amateur. Some of these guys just get
- 40:02Speaker 1: natural ownership because there's sort of fan favorites and people
- 40:05Speaker 1: want to be there first or be on them for
- 40:08Speaker 1: these prices. So I don't see a ton of ownership
- 40:10Speaker 1: in this range outside of maybe Posting at the bottom,
- 40:14Speaker 1: McNeely at the top. And there's a chance Sea Wou
- 40:17Speaker 1: gets a little bit of late steam only because again,
- 40:20Speaker 1: if you look at some of the stats and stuff
- 40:21Speaker 1: coming in, people usually like see Wu Kim, he did
- 40:24Speaker 1: just finish twelve last week. He's got twelve, twenty third
- 40:27Speaker 1: and twenty sixth tier. So I think the version I
- 40:30Speaker 1: showed you of Posting and Sea Wou is where people
- 40:33Speaker 1: would land if going Scottie with the eight k.
- 40:35Speaker 2: Guys right, correct, Yes.
- 40:39Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's where people would land. So you know,
- 40:41Speaker 1: I just needed your validation, so thank you for giving
- 40:44Speaker 1: me that. But you got what I was saying. So
- 40:45Speaker 1: my point being, I think it's gonna you're gonna have
- 40:48Speaker 1: to look in the middle. Like I don't think as
- 40:50Speaker 1: much as people like Luke Clanton when they do play them,
- 40:52Speaker 1: I don't think they like them enough to get them
- 40:53Speaker 1: to anywhere near ten percent or anything. So I think
- 40:56Speaker 1: Clinton would be a guy you could see, you know,
- 40:59Speaker 1: Kiddiama speed, those guys maybe get left alone if you
- 41:01Speaker 1: want to take that shot. That's where you'd have to
- 41:03Speaker 1: get different at I do see the upper eights as
- 41:05Speaker 1: a bit of a dead range. The thing I was
- 41:07Speaker 1: gonna say, and segueing into the seven k range is
- 41:10Speaker 1: that's kind of the decision in that build that I
- 41:12Speaker 1: just showed you with the Scottie and let's say it's
- 41:15Speaker 1: posting and see WU you're kind of just comparing those
- 41:18Speaker 1: guys against like Spawn Davis Thompson, Harry Hall, Billy Horsechell,
- 41:23Speaker 1: Ricky Fowler. Popularity. Austin Eck wrote, Sam Stevens been playing, well,
- 41:28Speaker 1: do you see any big difference between these upper sevens
- 41:30Speaker 1: and the low eights?
- 41:32Speaker 2: No, not too much. I mean, I think it's just
- 41:35Speaker 2: a continuation and it looks pretty good, like for me,
- 41:38Speaker 2: right at the top, like Spawn I'm okay with, but
- 41:40Speaker 2: min Wu Lee I like quite a bit. I mean
- 41:42Speaker 2: seventeenth last week. I think he definitely has some success here.
- 41:47Speaker 2: Very interested. Matthew Fitzpatrick. It just kind of looks weird
- 41:50Speaker 2: down here at seventy seven, Like maybe that's just kind
- 41:53Speaker 2: of what he is now at this point, but you know,
- 41:56Speaker 2: can he potentially find something Harry Hall at seventy seven
- 42:00Speaker 2: L Stevens. There's a lot of guys down here that
- 42:02Speaker 2: look appealing, and you know, when it comes to the
- 42:06Speaker 2: builds like these Scottie builds, a lot of the Scotty
- 42:08Speaker 2: builds are gonna come in this range. The nice part
- 42:11Speaker 2: about that is there's so many options where I think
- 42:13Speaker 2: the ownership does get spread out down here quite a bit.
- 42:15Speaker 2: So that's one reason I don't think you have to
- 42:18Speaker 2: avoid those Scottie and seven K builds because there's so
- 42:21Speaker 2: many guys. Novak Glover coming off a solid finish last
- 42:25Speaker 2: week third and he's been pretty good, so seventy four
- 42:28Speaker 2: hundred for him, Hogy seventy four. You know, Max Home.
- 42:31Speaker 2: I don't have much interest in Homer. I know he
- 42:34Speaker 2: popped up on one of these teams here, but I
- 42:36Speaker 2: got to see I got to see more out of
- 42:38Speaker 2: him before I do do anything. Our guy Kenny had
- 42:41Speaker 2: posted about Hoffman. Hoffman's playing well seventy two, Seamus Power,
- 42:47Speaker 2: Taylor Moore, Montgomery, Hodges. I'm gonna keep playing Hodges. I
- 42:51Speaker 2: know Hodges tilted everyone last week did fall off a
- 42:54Speaker 2: little bit in round Flour, but he was the cheap
- 42:57Speaker 2: popular guy. Finished thirty third last week, Woodland, Eric Cole,
- 43:02Speaker 2: Chris Kirk, I'm gonna play, definitely play some Kirky, McKenzie, Hughes.
- 43:07Speaker 2: So there's a lot of guys down here, and again
- 43:10Speaker 2: that is the one nice part about these Scottie teams.
- 43:12Speaker 2: And there's so many options down here. It's not like
- 43:15Speaker 2: it's just one guy that everyone's going to gravitate, gravitate
- 43:18Speaker 2: towards ownership, pascity get spread out because the number of
- 43:21Speaker 2: guys that appear to be solid plays.
- 43:23Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's why I don't really care about the
- 43:24Speaker 1: plays as much as everything you just said. And I
- 43:26Speaker 1: think it's important if you guys want to throw throw
- 43:28Speaker 1: some of your favorite seven K range guys in the chat.
- 43:31Speaker 1: I know Ross has been naming a few. I see
- 43:33Speaker 1: Tim in here with Novak. I see Adam just posted
- 43:36Speaker 1: dunlap Ross got Billy Hoen there. So yeah, throw some
- 43:39Speaker 1: of your favorite seven K guys in the chat while
- 43:41Speaker 1: I talk through this, because to your point, Hoop and
- 43:43Speaker 1: just going back here, I mean, I don't even believe this.
- 43:46Speaker 1: We'll have to wait and see what do I have
- 43:47Speaker 1: clark at on first run, I have an eight percent,
- 43:50Speaker 1: so we'll see seven or eight percent, like somewhere in
- 43:52Speaker 1: that range.
- 43:53Speaker 2: So it's probably like five five to eight.
- 43:55Speaker 1: Is probably a better range exactly. So the crazy part
- 43:58Speaker 1: about this, and this is why I like shipped them
- 44:00Speaker 1: just to show this off quickly. But you could see
- 44:02Speaker 1: sort of you know, you're getting your leverage, and you
- 44:04Speaker 1: could see it through total ownership. You could see it
- 44:06Speaker 1: through product of how many lowan guys do you have?
- 44:09Speaker 1: But all these Scotti locked lineups are only using seven
- 44:13Speaker 1: K guys. I went back to the old way and
- 44:14Speaker 1: I only did it for twenty but you saw before
- 44:16Speaker 1: it's basically all the lineups so we were running all
- 44:19Speaker 1: of them still have guys under ten percent. So you're
- 44:21Speaker 1: still getting a ton of leverage. If you went double
- 44:23Speaker 1: the field on Scotti and even went with the standard
- 44:26Speaker 1: build strategy this week of just using seven K guys
- 44:28Speaker 1: and six's you're not getting anybody, you're not. You still
- 44:31Speaker 1: can get a ton of leverage because there's so many guys.
- 44:35Speaker 1: From seven k down, let's do sixty seven hundred and
- 44:37Speaker 1: up just to seventy nine hundred. There is fifty five
- 44:43Speaker 1: golfers and right now I've got maybe one, two, three,
- 44:51Speaker 1: maybe four of them top double digits. That's the difference, right,
- 44:54Speaker 1: And that's what I was gonna say, like, I don't
- 44:57Speaker 1: see him again. High stake, smaller field stuff totally different.
- 45:01Speaker 1: There will be a chosen few that get the steam.
- 45:04Speaker 1: Watch our guy degenerate at seventy five tomorrow night, as
- 45:06Speaker 1: you probably already do on the emergency stream, because he
- 45:09Speaker 1: will tell you who is steaming and who is moonwalking back.
- 45:12Speaker 1: That's how you'll know. And then those guys typically translate
- 45:15Speaker 1: over into into the high stakes. Maybe it's a guy
- 45:17Speaker 1: like Fitzpatrick, major winner, who they say, you know what
- 45:20Speaker 1: the price does just look bad on that guy. Let
- 45:22Speaker 1: me get him to fifteen or sixteen and that surprises you.
- 45:25Speaker 1: I get it. But when for the most part, Brian Harmon, Novak, Cole,
- 45:29Speaker 1: Billy Hoe, Dunlap maybe Stevens is one of them. Hoffman
- 45:33Speaker 1: don't know. Like course history sure, but Acrod always gets
- 45:36Speaker 1: a little bit of steam. But honestly, most these guys
- 45:38Speaker 1: people are talking about d Tree. Maybe it's Glover, I
- 45:41Speaker 1: don't know, but not many of these guys are gonna
- 45:43Speaker 1: get over ten percent. And you can get them all
- 45:46Speaker 1: in there with Scotty and get tons of different variations
- 45:49Speaker 1: of these lineups without even having to get to a
- 45:52Speaker 1: different construction. And I say all that just to go
- 45:54Speaker 1: back to the original point hoop of when you do
- 45:56Speaker 1: look at your builds and looking at it when we
- 45:58Speaker 1: were doing the comparisons, well, easy to get there when
- 46:01Speaker 1: you go to something like this. But even going back,
- 46:04Speaker 1: if you don't think, like I said, that this is
- 46:06Speaker 1: that much different, then why even bother You don't have
- 46:09Speaker 1: to look for a different roster construction. If you have
- 46:11Speaker 1: all these leverage options down load, just pick golfers that
- 46:15Speaker 1: you like that not everybody's playing together and get different combinations.
- 46:18Speaker 1: What you will need to figure out, and what's most
- 46:20Speaker 1: important to know is what are the most popular combinations
- 46:23Speaker 1: with Scotty Scheffler and how can you leverage those? Because
- 46:27Speaker 1: that's where you get into trouble when you've got three
- 46:30Speaker 1: of the same golfers with Scotty in a bunch of
- 46:33Speaker 1: your lineups, because your four core pieces are Scotty and
- 46:36Speaker 1: three super popular golfers with Scotty. Well, now you just
- 46:39Speaker 1: got a bunch of builds like everybody else, and they're
- 46:41Speaker 1: not different construction. There is no leverage points outside of
- 46:44Speaker 1: one or two, and you're backing yourself a bit into
- 46:47Speaker 1: a quarner. But I think it's going to be your
- 46:48Speaker 1: play here, hoop. It's just going to be heavy Scotty
- 46:51Speaker 1: and get different with whoever you like down in the seven.
- 46:53Speaker 2: Case, right, Yeah, I like that move again because a
- 46:56Speaker 2: lot of these guys are gonna get a little bit
- 46:58Speaker 2: of ownership. There's no way, hey, anyone comes in popular
- 47:02Speaker 2: or Chalky down here. I mean, it just seems like
- 47:05Speaker 2: it has to get spread out.
- 47:08Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the sixes. Then I'll go
- 47:10Speaker 1: back just to see if there's any that popped up
- 47:11Speaker 1: in the exposures, just to see that we were getting.
- 47:15Speaker 1: But I don't see a ton. How much is Mackenzie
- 47:19Speaker 1: Hughes this week right now? Seven K, yeah, flat seven?
- 47:23Speaker 1: So I guess it's more of those guys where's how
- 47:26Speaker 1: much Patrick Rodgers, if any? Did we get none in
- 47:31Speaker 1: the twenty Now in the bigger set, we got some
- 47:34Speaker 1: Patrick Rodgers. So it looks like Patrick Rogers. Kevin, you
- 47:38Speaker 1: are a couple guys that are popping. But is there
- 47:39Speaker 1: anybody in the sixes that stands out to you? Is
- 47:42Speaker 1: there any sort of thought process you have down here?
- 47:44Speaker 1: I got one super hot take here, but it's it's
- 47:47Speaker 1: way off the board. I'll still bring it up to
- 47:48Speaker 1: I'll let you go first.
- 47:49Speaker 2: Yeah, I got a few, I mean out of it.
- 47:51Speaker 2: I mean I'm willing to play some of these guys
- 47:53Speaker 2: down here. I think are there are playable guys. It's
- 47:55Speaker 2: not super gross like Rogers, like you mentioned, I don't
- 47:58Speaker 2: mind Tim, I don't know. I guess this could be
- 48:01Speaker 2: a nasty one. But I am somewhat interested in Jake
- 48:05Speaker 2: Napp at sixty eight hundred, I'm not going to be
- 48:08Speaker 2: sleeping on sleeping on Nap this week back to back
- 48:11Speaker 2: pretty solid weeks thirty second, thirty third last week. You
- 48:16Speaker 2: know he has some upside. We haven't seen it. He
- 48:18Speaker 2: had a really bad year last year, but sixty eight hundred,
- 48:22Speaker 2: I'll take a chance on him. Like his style, of
- 48:24Speaker 2: play I think can correlate well here. So interested this
- 48:29Speaker 2: who is a Frankie Cappin if that's how you pronounced it.
- 48:32Speaker 2: He's you know, a couple solid results. He is sixty
- 48:37Speaker 2: eight hundred. Come down a little bit more. Adam Shank.
- 48:41Speaker 2: I just always play Adam Shank, so you know, I mean,
- 48:44Speaker 2: you don't necessarily have to join me, but I do.
- 48:46Speaker 2: Putnam Sam Ryder was a name that someone brought up earlier.
- 48:50Speaker 2: Three straight pretty solid starts for him, twenty first, forty
- 48:54Speaker 2: third at the American Express, then twenty fifth at the Farmers.
- 48:57Speaker 2: He definitely stands out as a play for me. And
- 49:02Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm sure I'll have some others. Oh Man,
- 49:05Speaker 2: our guy Ben Silverman is not getting the job. I'd
- 49:08Speaker 2: like to recommend him, but I don't think I can
- 49:09Speaker 2: really do it at this point. So yeah, fine with
- 49:12Speaker 2: a few of these guys down here, probably play five, six,
- 49:15Speaker 2: maybe seven of them.
- 49:16Speaker 1: What about Ben Coles?
- 49:18Speaker 2: I have played him in the past. Let's see what
- 49:20Speaker 2: mister Coles has been up to you. I gotta see
- 49:22Speaker 2: some sort of form, Okay, all right, I see fifty third,
- 49:26Speaker 2: twenty first, Yeah, I could have sixty three hundred yeah,
- 49:28Speaker 2: I could. I could do Coles for sure. Yeah, I'm interested.
- 49:31Speaker 1: Yeah, there's really not much down here. That's kind of
- 49:33Speaker 1: the issue. So here's the hot take. And he's the
- 49:36Speaker 1: exact same price as Patrick Rogers, and this is gonna
- 49:40Speaker 1: be a long shot. I'm gonna play some Rogers. Still,
- 49:42Speaker 1: he's sixty nine hundred, I get it. But Bud Cally
- 49:48Speaker 1: is sixty nine hundred. And Bud Cauley was really good
- 49:52Speaker 1: at the Sony Open, and a lot of people looked
- 49:55Speaker 1: at Bud Cauley. And because he withdrew off the Amax recently,
- 50:00Speaker 1: he had like a twenty fifth and the twenty sixth
- 50:01Speaker 1: here back in the day, I don't really care about that.
- 50:03Speaker 1: He played it last year mid the cut was fine.
- 50:06Speaker 1: But he's having some good golf. I think it's three
- 50:08Speaker 1: straight top thirties. It was a thirtieth of the Sony Open.
- 50:10Speaker 1: Then he wd'd last week and I did some digging
- 50:13Speaker 1: in and nobody knows. It's quote unquote undisclosed by the
- 50:17Speaker 1: injury followers. But if you do follow Bud cally and
- 50:21Speaker 1: go to his Instagram and then you find his wife
- 50:23Speaker 1: and you deep dive, you'll remember shout out to Chad
- 50:26Speaker 1: Eckert our Boy. He had it covered earlier in the
- 50:29Speaker 1: season of people that were expecting you get a little
- 50:32Speaker 1: baby swag, baby number two swag. His wife was due
- 50:36Speaker 1: late January, and her latest post on January twenty fifth
- 50:41Speaker 1: is like now two weeks ago, said any day now
- 50:44Speaker 1: or something like that. So I'm assuming we'll never know
- 50:46Speaker 1: because it's literally bud Cally I'm talking about here, but
- 50:49Speaker 1: they probably had the baby and then he's back Yo
- 50:53Speaker 1: does the w D and now he's back into the
- 50:55Speaker 1: mix and he's gonna get the daddy daddy time. You know,
- 50:57Speaker 1: the what do they call them? What's the what's the
- 51:00Speaker 1: word for it again, daddy swag? Yeah, father, I don't know.
- 51:04Speaker 2: People call it how kid baby swag, right.
- 51:06Speaker 1: Baby swag, baby swag, that's what it is. Yeah. Somebody
- 51:10Speaker 1: used to call it like father swag, and I remember
- 51:12Speaker 1: laughing at it, buddies and making fun of it because
- 51:14Speaker 1: it's not what it is, but baby swag. And then
- 51:16Speaker 1: the nappy factor is like when someone's first gets like
- 51:20Speaker 1: the white their wife gets pregnant and then they come out.
- 51:22Speaker 1: So he already had that and has been riding it.
- 51:24Speaker 1: He's been riding the nappy factor with like twenty fifth,
- 51:27Speaker 1: thirtieth good results recently, been good here in the past
- 51:31Speaker 1: and now maybe had the baby and good to go.
- 51:33Speaker 1: So I like some bug Cally here. It's a narrative piece,
- 51:36Speaker 1: but he's done well here before and he's playing well now,
- 51:38Speaker 1: so I like him. After that, it gets a little
- 51:42Speaker 1: bit tricky, like it's not a ton of these guys
- 51:44Speaker 1: that I love, and because we talked about in the sevens,
- 51:46Speaker 1: I don't think you need to go crazy down here.
- 51:47Speaker 1: I'm just trying to scan the list. But I guess
- 51:50Speaker 1: Roger Smally you the most popular ones for sure. Kappin,
- 51:54Speaker 1: who you mentioned was a guy had interested in ct
- 51:56Speaker 1: PAN was another one. I forget who's trying to sell
- 52:00Speaker 1: me on Rico Joe and some of these other guys
- 52:02Speaker 1: down here.
- 52:02Speaker 2: But as me, every single week, he's teed up because
- 52:05Speaker 2: I always play is where is his ass? Because I
- 52:07Speaker 2: always play him?
- 52:08Speaker 1: He's at sixty seven hundred.
- 52:11Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I got a check yeah seven Yeah.
- 52:17Speaker 1: I don't think whoever sold me that is actually gonna
- 52:19Speaker 1: run with the lineup they were thinking of. But we'll
- 52:21Speaker 1: see and after that, not much, I guess for me,
- 52:24Speaker 1: it's just Like I said, if you're playing two of
- 52:26Speaker 1: these guys, it's probably just two of them in the
- 52:27Speaker 1: high sixes anyway. So if the ownership does court like,
- 52:31Speaker 1: if the ownership does get heavy there, I don't love
- 52:33Speaker 1: it nearly as much because we already talked there's so
- 52:35Speaker 1: many different guys in the other spot. One guy that's
- 52:38Speaker 1: not playing great right now and didn't play great last
- 52:41Speaker 1: week either. I just want to go pull his stats
- 52:43Speaker 1: to see he still it doesn't really matter. He didn't
- 52:45Speaker 1: play good, but Hadwin. I was gonna bring up only
- 52:49Speaker 1: because he typically plays well in the desert. We've seen that,
- 52:53Speaker 1: and he's he seems cheap too. I don't know why,
- 52:55Speaker 1: but at sixty nine hundred, it just seems like it's
- 52:56Speaker 1: a fair price. But he's got ten twenty six. He
- 52:59Speaker 1: was even better here back in the day is tenth
- 53:01Speaker 1: and twenty six, and more recent years we know if
- 53:03Speaker 1: he gets hot with the potter, he plays good in
- 53:05Speaker 1: the desert. He's sort of that same price range. Two
- 53:08Speaker 1: bez is there. I just think there's a lot of
- 53:09Speaker 1: ways to get different in the seven in the low sixes,
- 53:14Speaker 1: but there's already enough ways to get different in the seven.
- 53:15Speaker 1: So I'm not so sure you need a venture down
- 53:17Speaker 1: here that much anything else for you on that one.
- 53:19Speaker 2: It's kind of my main takeaway. It's like, man, I
- 53:21Speaker 2: look in those low sevens and I see so many
- 53:23Speaker 2: guys that I want to play, and so many of
- 53:25Speaker 2: them look like way better than these guys in the
- 53:27Speaker 2: six k. And with that being said, in my one
- 53:29Speaker 2: to fifty, I'll definitely have some of the sixes, but
- 53:32Speaker 2: I want to be in the low sevens more than
- 53:34Speaker 2: the sixes for sure.
- 53:37Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to DJNZ notes. You guys have golfers.
- 53:39Speaker 1: You want us to look up for the notes, you
- 53:40Speaker 1: can throw them into the chat. But easy courses, weak
- 53:43Speaker 1: field so has made good T ten spike results at
- 53:46Speaker 1: week long, Yeah, I guess had One's kind of interesting
- 53:48Speaker 1: to me at that same price there, I'm not sure
- 53:50Speaker 1: if Caley look at him, look how happy this guy has.
- 53:52Speaker 1: Imagine thrilled, you know, imagine fadings. Bud Cawley returned to
- 53:56Speaker 1: form after missing He had the injury and stuff for sure,
- 53:58Speaker 1: but easier course and blow average. So I didn't find
- 54:02Speaker 1: anything for dessert, I mean dessert. I was gonna say, yeah,
- 54:07Speaker 1: I was gonna use my joke as I was just
- 54:08Speaker 1: teaching my daughter dessert versus desert, and you know the
- 54:12Speaker 1: difference is dessert has two s's because seconds you always
- 54:16Speaker 1: want more. I mixed that one up, but just trying
- 54:19Speaker 1: to see some people at someone someone had shank and
- 54:21Speaker 1: hear your boy.
- 54:22Speaker 2: It's your boy.
- 54:23Speaker 1: Adam a solid approach play at no cut events, but
- 54:27Speaker 1: below average on short courses, above his baseline on TPC courses,
- 54:31Speaker 1: So that could be good, good T ten grinder. Like
- 54:35Speaker 1: maybe maybe Chikopotamus as DJ likes to call him up here,
- 54:40Speaker 1: Maybe maybe Shakeopotamus is in the mix here. What's his price?
- 54:42Speaker 1: Sixty eight?
- 54:43Speaker 2: It's down there, sixty seven? Maybe let's see yeah, six
- 54:47Speaker 2: six six even cheaper, even better, shap the.
- 54:50Speaker 1: Cheaper the better. Joe high Smith did he make the
- 54:53Speaker 1: cut here or like the cut for this? I mean
- 54:55Speaker 1: he did bucket at that's an unknown. He does have
- 54:58Speaker 1: a bucket at swing season, I might tell you all
- 55:00Speaker 1: you need to know. But he's a good DK points
- 55:02Speaker 1: per dollar.
- 55:02Speaker 2: Scorer, not spling season, so that's season.
- 55:07Speaker 1: Taylor Moore incredible off the tee, can get nuclear hot
- 55:11Speaker 1: at showdowns. Struggles on approach, that's tricky. Prefer on long
- 55:14Speaker 1: can show up at Birdie Fest, performs a weak fields,
- 55:17Speaker 1: struggles and strong cuts best putting on poet trivialis this
- 55:22Speaker 1: this is the week? Then maybe maybe Taylor Moore? What's
- 55:24Speaker 1: his price?
- 55:25Speaker 2: Taylor Moore?
- 55:26Speaker 1: Is I like that? Seventy Taylor Moore? Let's not forget
- 55:34Speaker 1: about Taylor Moore. Let's let's get that guy going. Oh
- 55:36Speaker 1: we see we got a band in the chat.
- 55:39Speaker 2: Yeah, people want to talk to ship see you later.
- 55:43Speaker 1: Oh man, I missed it. I want to be involved.
- 55:46Speaker 1: What do we got Joel Damon? Let me see Joe
- 55:48Speaker 1: Damon another bucket at we got high Smith and Damon
- 55:51Speaker 1: under performs often quits on a round. Do not chase
- 55:54Speaker 1: that showdown following an excellent round. So if he does
- 55:56Speaker 1: have a good one, don't play him and show showdown.
- 55:59Speaker 1: Can't get roasty hot with irons. What has Damon done
- 56:03Speaker 1: ninth recently? And then he's made the cut the last
- 56:05Speaker 1: three years? Or we know of him, you know, popping
- 56:07Speaker 1: the shirt off with Harry hall Thou But yeah, that
- 56:13Speaker 1: was him. Yeah, he he likes to have a good
- 56:15Speaker 1: time on the course, but he said he's been taking
- 56:17Speaker 1: it more serious. I'm not sure if he saw the
- 56:19Speaker 1: the the Joel Damon the yeah, all the oh now
- 56:23Speaker 1: I'm seeing them the people. That's the popularity of the show. Sorry,
- 56:26Speaker 1: go back to the other show, the setup, the Joel
- 56:30Speaker 1: Damon thing though he said he went and took like
- 56:32Speaker 1: Navy seal training, because I'm not sure if you saw
- 56:35Speaker 1: like the the Full Swing series where he wasn't taking
- 56:38Speaker 1: it serious and everyone's mad at him and he's like
- 56:40Speaker 1: drinking and other guys are taking it more serious, and
- 56:43Speaker 1: then he you know, he's drinking the white Claw at
- 56:47Speaker 1: the corner and then goes out and wins the gets
- 56:49Speaker 1: the seat into it. So yeah, it's pretty funny, but yeah,
- 56:52Speaker 1: this is what it was. Yeah, it was literally something
- 56:54Speaker 1: like this. He was gonna lose his Caddy Gino if
- 56:57Speaker 1: he if he didn't start taking it more seriously. But
- 56:59Speaker 1: maybe he's been inspired. And what's his price again? We said, yeah,
- 57:05Speaker 1: he's sixty four hundred, so he's kind of free.
- 57:07Speaker 2: Yeah. Saw another name down there that people were asking
- 57:10Speaker 2: about is Ventura off the what T four? I believe
- 57:13Speaker 2: he finished? Yeah? T four at the Farmers sixty six
- 57:17Speaker 2: hundred finish.
- 57:18Speaker 1: He didn't. We didn't get him in here yet, not
- 57:20Speaker 1: in there yet Yeah, we saw him a couple of times.
- 57:22Speaker 1: Last week saw Ace Spentura one and a Spenturer two.
- 57:25Speaker 1: Last week with Shane Lowry and Roy McElroy though back
- 57:28Speaker 1: back to back, so that was pretty crazy though, the
- 57:32Speaker 1: two holes in one on the same day, yes, and
- 57:35Speaker 1: then they finished one too, so it kind of made
- 57:37Speaker 1: sense after all four days. But what'd you say he
- 57:40Speaker 1: was coming off of fourth last.
- 57:42Speaker 2: Time they finished fourth. Yeah, he was fourth place finish.
- 57:45Speaker 2: He was up there definitely at the end.
- 57:46Speaker 1: How much is Springer here? He's another guy that just
- 57:49Speaker 1: I saw pop he's sixty four hundred as well. I
- 57:51Speaker 1: don't know. It's really tough, but you don't necessarily need
- 57:53Speaker 1: these guys. And you said Ryder earlier. Ryder is right
- 57:57Speaker 1: there at sixty five and you already mentioned it. But
- 57:59Speaker 1: twenty forty third, twenty first, fifth and a thirtieth in
- 58:03Speaker 1: five of his last six and then he missed the
- 58:06Speaker 1: cut here last year, but before that twentieth and twenty third,
- 58:09Speaker 1: so he's playing much better golf. And Ryder is like
- 58:12Speaker 1: sixty five hundred, So I don't know, I have no idea.
- 58:16Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. I mean the main thing to
- 58:18Speaker 2: me is like you look at the You look at
- 58:20Speaker 2: the lower sevens like we covered, and there's a lot
- 58:22Speaker 2: of guys down there that look pretty appealing, that are
- 58:24Speaker 2: playing some pretty solid golf, and you know, you start
- 58:26Speaker 2: comparing them to the six k guys, it's like, man
- 58:31Speaker 2: to me, it's it's almost like night and day. And yeah,
- 58:33Speaker 2: the Rider, for sure, I mean, I think he's the
- 58:35Speaker 2: one guy that probably gets a little bit of ownership
- 58:38Speaker 2: down here, just because it's been like three straight weeks
- 58:40Speaker 2: where he's been pretty solid and he's only sixty five
- 58:43Speaker 2: hundred and it's twenty fifth, forty third, and twenty first
- 58:48Speaker 2: in his last three starts, and people are gonna like
- 58:51Speaker 2: that for sixty five hundred. He's not gonna be super
- 58:53Speaker 2: high on, but he will get a little bit of
- 58:54Speaker 2: traction down here.
- 58:56Speaker 1: This might be another one too. Let me see what
- 58:58Speaker 1: do we got for fish good t ten percent, there
- 59:01Speaker 1: is no real weakness consistent, but doesn't get a ton
- 59:04Speaker 1: of it. Lego ahead, Yeah, that looks right. But what
- 59:06Speaker 1: was that?
- 59:07Speaker 2: That's an awkward shaped upper body. Look at that. That's
- 59:10Speaker 2: a little bit that's a little different there.
- 59:11Speaker 1: How much is Fishburne this week? Sixty eight? Another guy? Yeah,
- 59:17Speaker 1: that is kind of interesting because Fishburn, you know, missed
- 59:19Speaker 1: the cut the last couple, but before that, it's kind
- 59:21Speaker 1: of perfect for GVPS, right, you want that boom bust sixth, eighth,
- 59:25Speaker 1: twelve beyond the miscuts. So it's like we've we've done
- 59:28Speaker 1: this with guys when they're you know, eight k or
- 59:31Speaker 1: something and be like, at least we have that opportunity
- 59:33Speaker 1: and we know who they are better. But here he
- 59:34Speaker 1: was like seventy five seventy seven hundred a couple of
- 59:36Speaker 1: weeks ago. So I wouldn't hate taking some shots on
- 59:39Speaker 1: Fishburn Matt Chew Pavent and he loved for him. He's
- 59:43Speaker 1: got a not much going on lately. But did you
- 59:46Speaker 1: do you like him?
- 59:49Speaker 2: He's tough for me? I mean sixty eight hundred, uh
- 59:54Speaker 2: cut cut the last two, Like I don't know, like
- 59:57Speaker 2: here is lower mid sixes, lower sixes potentially, but sixty
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: eight again to me, just too close, too close to
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: the seven K range.
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: Johnny got me, man, that's a good one, said maybe yeah,
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: that's what it is. Maybe just really heavy like they
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: are super.
- 1:00:14Speaker 2: I couldn't figure out what it is. I was like,
- 1:00:16Speaker 2: something looks a little different, but yeah, he's like really
- 1:00:18Speaker 2: those shoulders are really down, really angles.
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: Yeah, this angle is like across. This one's just down,
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: all right? Anything else from you man, any final thoughts
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: before we get out of here. I know we've got
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: a lot of good stuff going on right now, a
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: lot of big stuff upcoming. But anything else you want
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: to talk about before we get out of here.
- 1:00:36Speaker 2: No, just you know, we'll have all our stuff stuff up,
- 1:00:38Speaker 2: but nice and early Onlike a lot of spots in
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: the industry, we get our content up nice and early
- 1:00:43Speaker 2: so you have time to kind of digest it. Getting
- 1:00:45Speaker 2: the discord very active, friendly discord. There's gonna be no
- 1:00:49Speaker 2: negativity in there. You can count on that. And now's
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: a perfect time to get in with the code ship fifty.
- 1:00:55Speaker 2: Fifty fifty dollars off your first month of all access
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- 1:01:08Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll check it out right here with you quick.
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: But that's the code Ship fifty. If you go to
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: it on the site, just go to join the nation.
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: It's actually less right now if you were joining just
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- 1:01:42Speaker 1: the API MMA coming back for seven straight weeks this
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