Latest / Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update / Small Biz Sentiment Sours Again | S2 E030 | 04-08-25

Transcript

Small Biz Sentiment Sours Again | S2 E030 | 04-08-25 · Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

• 0:00
  Megan Horneman: We realize that tariffs are really dominating the market moves these days, but we can't forget about some of the economic data that's coming out to get us a better picture of where we stand in the economy and are we headed towards a recession?
• 0:11
  Megan Horneman: It's Tuesday, april the 8th, and this is Markets with Megan.
• 0:14
  Megan Horneman: If you like this podcast, please subscribe.
• 0:17
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• 0:20
  Megan Horneman: But what we wanted to do today was come to you about the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey that we received this morning.
• 0:28
  Megan Horneman: This survey gives us a gauge of what are the small businesses think about here in the US and unfortunately, this index now has fallen for the third consecutive month.
• 0:38
  Megan Horneman: It's the lowest level we've seen since October of last year and it's the biggest month-over-month drop that we've seen since June 2022.
• 0:45
  Megan Horneman: Year.
• 0:45
  Megan Horneman: And it's the biggest month-over-month drop that we've seen since June 2022.
• 0:47
  Megan Horneman: Remember that's when the Fed was in the midst of their aggressive tightening cycle.
• 0:52
  Megan Horneman: Now let's dig into some of these details, because we do get a lot of different components to this report.
• 0:57
  Megan Horneman: We saw the biggest weakness in the expectation for sales and the expectation for earnings.
• 1:04
  Megan Horneman: Every single component in this index was below its six-month moving average, except those that are expecting for prices to be higher.
• 1:14
  Megan Horneman: So, from an inflation standpoint, not a great report.
• 1:17
  Megan Horneman: When you look at what some of these small business owners had mentioned as being a challenge, it's hiring and costs.
• 1:25
  Megan Horneman: Still, they still mention that labor quality is the single biggest problem that they face.
• 1:31
  Megan Horneman: And then when you look at those expecting a better economy in the next six months, we actually saw the biggest drop in that component since 2020.
• 1:41
  Megan Horneman: So markets today are moving more on the ongoing headlines that we're receiving about the tariffs, reciprocal tariffs and potential negotiations that we're seeing.
• 1:51
  Megan Horneman: We think this will continue to dominate the markets and we'll be back with any of our impact reports as we see fit to give you guys any and all new information that we find.
• 2:02
  Megan Horneman: In the meantime, we won't neglect this economic data.
• 2:05
  Megan Horneman: The report today is showing the economy slowed into the first quarter.
• 2:10
  Megan Horneman: We'll get a couple more very important data moving reports this week.
• 2:14
  Megan Horneman: We'll get two on inflation.
• 2:15
  Megan Horneman: We'll get both CPI and PPI.
• 2:17
  Megan Horneman: We'll also get the preliminary reading on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and this is the one that's just been deteriorating.
• 2:26
  Megan Horneman: If you get weakness in the sentiment on the business side and the consumer side, basically that's just a standstill for the economy and that puts downward pressure on economic growth.
• 2:35
  Megan Horneman: That's all we have today.
• 2:37
  Megan Horneman: If you want a further history of our podcast, you can go to marketswithmeganfm.
• 2:41
  Megan Horneman: Thank you.