Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 386 - 10/31/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 386 - 10/31/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems go with Josh Appelbaum starts now.
• 0:14
  Hello and welcome to Episode 3. 86 of the all.
• 0:18
  Systems go sports betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:22
  I am your host. Josh.
• 0:24
  Appelbaum, What's going on, everyone?
• 0:30
  Happy Friday. More importantly, happy
• 0:33
  Halloween. That's right.
• 0:34
  One of my favorite holidays of the.
• 0:36
  Year It's funny when you're younger.
• 0:38
  You love trick or treating with your siblings or your parents.
• 0:41
  Then you know, middle school you like just going out with.
• 0:43
  Your friends get to. College.
• 0:45
  Some of the best. College parties I am a.
• 0:47
  Proud alum of the. University of Vermont.
• 0:49
  So we got. After it when I was in college.
• 0:52
  And then? Kind of in your 20s, thirties,
• 0:53
  you go out to bars and maybe you dress up.
• 0:56
  Now that I am. A very proud home.
• 0:58
  Owner at the age of 30. 8 You know what?
• 0:59
  I love to do. I love to hand out candy, so I
• 1:02
  guess that's the evolution of life, so.
• 1:04
  Happy Halloween to everybody. Hope you have a.
• 1:05
  Great night tonight. Be safe, don't drink and drive.
• 1:08
  You guys know the deal. We do have a lot to get to on
• 1:10
  today's podcast. Including a three.
• 1:12
  Pack of sweats for you today. I do have.
• 1:15
  An NBA player prop. I'm going to look at a points
• 1:17
  rebounds and assist prop with a really sharp rhythm edge.
• 1:20
  On a guy who comes off the bench.
• 1:22
  But loads up the stat sheet and then also a couple plays in
• 1:25
  college football. Looking at a dog.
• 1:28
  That's really contrarian with a rhythm edge in a sharp line move
• 1:31
  as well as a total. Or hopefully we can get a.
• 1:34
  Lower scoring game with. One team in particular.
• 1:36
  Plays a lot of very slow lower. Scoring game so.
• 1:39
  Three pack overall guys. See if we can go 2 and one each
• 1:41
  out of winning day and then we also have to.
• 1:44
  Kind of finish off our card for the weekend because we got
• 1:47
  college football tomorrow. We got NFL coming up on Sunday.
• 1:50
  I got three dogs in college football.
• 1:53
  I got 3. Favorites in the NFL, so we'll
• 1:55
  update these numbers and hopefully have a winning
• 1:58
  weekend. Now, looking back to our last
• 2:00
  night, guys, Hallelujah, we actually want to bet.
• 2:03
  Can you believe it? It's been an absolute disaster
• 2:06
  here recently. With losses piling up.
• 2:09
  But finally tasted what a winning.
• 2:11
  Bets you know taste like which was.
• 2:13
  Nice, did get the Tua over 215. And a half passing yards.
• 2:17
  Remember, rhythm had. Around 261 I think he landed
• 2:20
  right around there so. Almost spot on So.
• 2:23
  Did get the Tua hit there to the over, which was nice.
• 2:27
  But again, you know, flickers of of light here deep in the
• 2:30
  tunnel. Try to.
• 2:32
  Take some baby steps here with that to a win.
• 2:34
  Because it was still 1 and 2 -, 1.17 unit night.
• 2:38
  The Dolphins absolutely just pathetic, disgusting.
• 2:41
  And again these these. Sharp dogs.
• 2:43
  I can't tell you how many times over the years guys, you get a
• 2:46
  prime time game. Publix on the favorite line
• 2:48
  doesn't. Move that dog getting 7 1/2.
• 2:50
  That's a winning bet. Historically, but just not
• 2:52
  happening this year. So a tough one last.
• 2:55
  Night and I'm going to point to the referees because here I.
• 2:58
  Am continuing to be frustrated with the results but.
• 3:00
  How about that 15 yard penalty when Ollie Gordon?
• 3:03
  Literally falls down slips. On the grass and.
• 3:06
  Tua completes a deep pass to to. Jalen Waddle.
• 3:09
  It was 14 to 3 at the time. But they could go in and score.
• 3:12
  Make it 14. To 10 instead.
• 3:15
  These idiot referees call a. 15 yard.
• 3:18
  Penalty for a a leg clip. Which again.
• 3:21
  Was not at all and even you go, this is when things aren't going
• 3:23
  your way. You know, the refs make this
• 3:25
  terrible call, they go. To the Sky judge.
• 3:27
  And the sky ref says yeah, that definitely.
• 3:29
  Was not a penalty. Terrible call.
• 3:31
  OK, well, can you reverse the call?
• 3:33
  But anyway. Fumbling the ball left and right
• 3:36
  to again give him credit for getting that.
• 3:38
  Overpassing yardage. But man, that was a that was a
• 3:41
  tough one. They were the points that didn't
• 3:42
  come through. And then also still.
• 3:45
  Stuck in the mud here the Orlando Charlotte.
• 3:47
  Over 239 1/2. I thought we were on our way to
• 3:49
  a winner there at the end of the first half, guys 100 and. 29
• 3:53
  points. Scored.
• 3:54
  Guess how many? Points they scored in the
• 3:56
  second-half 101. So went ice cold to come up
• 4:00
  short with that total so. Again, flickers of light.
• 4:03
  Baby steps. You cash a ticket with Tua,
• 4:06
  Hopefully we're grinding our way back to.
• 4:08
  Again, you can't go from zero to.
• 4:10
  To 100. But you can mitigate your
• 4:12
  losses. You can get back maybe to even
• 4:14
  and. Then we can.
• 4:15
  Hopefully get back to. In the green.
• 4:17
  And I will say if you have been frustrated as I have.
• 4:20
  Been with the results. Here's a little glimmer of.
• 4:23
  Hope as well. Do you guys know what comes back
• 4:25
  on Monday? College.
• 4:26
  Basketball. So college hoops.
• 4:28
  One of our better sports here. On the pod.
• 4:31
  Get ready to fire up your. Ken Palm membership and we've
• 4:34
  been in college. Hoops So again, if football
• 4:36
  continues to be a. Disaster.
• 4:38
  That's another. Sport that hopefully we can take
• 4:39
  advantage of and claw some units back.
• 4:41
  So, something to get excited about for Monday.
• 4:44
  Now looking toward. Tonight, 3 pack overall.
• 4:46
  And then our. Place here for the.
• 4:47
  Weekend I want to start off with.
• 4:49
  Some college football. Games for tonight so.
• 4:52
  There's three games overall, first one.
• 4:54
  That caught my eye. Let's talk Memphis and Rice.
• 4:56
  This is your 7. O'clock game here tonight.
• 4:59
  Memphis comes in seven and one ranked 25th in the country.
• 5:02
  Just beat South. Florida 3431 big upset win as a
• 5:06
  3 1/2 point home. Dog, you know rice.
• 5:08
  Four and four on the year. Just beat Connecticut though.
• 5:11
  3734 and double overtime. They won that game as a 10 point
• 5:15
  home dog. So nice to see rice.
• 5:17
  Get that winner now. What do we see?
• 5:20
  Across the market, well, Memphis open as a 14 1/2 point Rd.
• 5:23
  favorite and public says. No, we're not worried.
• 5:26
  Big number, but. Memphis is ranked seven and one
• 5:29
  Rice. Four and four, they've struggled
• 5:30
  this year. So you're getting 62% of spread
• 5:33
  bets at DraftKings, laying it with Memphis.
• 5:35
  Memphis isn't up to -15 -, 16. They're down 14 1/2 to 14 and
• 5:40
  some shops even down to 13. And a half so.
• 5:43
  Why is this line? Dropping toward rice if a clear
• 5:46
  majority of tickets are laying it with Memphis tells me you
• 5:48
  got. Some sharp reverse line
• 5:50
  movement. And a nationally televised.
• 5:52
  Game. This is a ESPN 2 game I believe.
• 5:54
  But Rice has that. Bet bet against the.
• 5:56
  Public value. Getting less than 40% of the
• 5:58
  tickets they are getting, however half.
• 6:00
  The money so low. Bets higher dollar split.
• 6:03
  Some system matches here Unranked dog VS ranked opponent.
• 6:06
  Those teams are 62 and 52 against the spread, 54 percent,
• 6:10
  4%. ROI this year?
• 6:12
  They're 170 and 143 against the spread. 54 percent, 4% ROI since
• 6:17
  2020. 4 So been pretty consistent.
• 6:19
  Dog VS Unranked Dog VS ranked opponent.
• 6:22
  This year and last year. The owls of rice, they also have
• 6:26
  some betting system value as a conference dog, so built in
• 6:29
  familiarity. Levels the playing field,
• 6:31
  benefits the team getting points home.
• 6:33
  Conference dogs are 57% against the spread this year, 8% ROI.
• 6:37
  They're 55% ATS with A5. Percent ROI since. 2024 and.
• 6:42
  Lastly, I did pop open Juice Reel or sorry rhythm I should
• 6:46
  say, and rhythm has. Two recommendations here.
• 6:50
  Both on rice. One is rice plus 10.1 and one is
• 6:54
  rice plus 8.6. So I'm going to.
• 6:57
  Take the points here with. Rice again, Publix, Memphis.
• 7:00
  But those 14 and a halfs are down to 14, some books even down
• 7:03
  to 13 1/2. We got rhythm saying it should
• 7:05
  be around a 9 or 10 point game. Maybe Memphis wins by 7, Who
• 7:09
  knows? Maybe rice keeps?
• 7:10
  This thing close. But I took rice.
• 7:13
  Plus. 14 First bet here of the night.
• 7:17
  Now next game I'm looking at UNC and Syracuse.
• 7:20
  I get a chance to watch Bill Belichick.
• 7:23
  My old buddy. Once again my old.
• 7:25
  Buddy, because I love you. When things are going well, and
• 7:27
  ever since Tom Brady left, you've been a complete.
• 7:29
  Disaster, but let's set. The stage here.
• 7:32
  UNC 2:00 and 5:00. On the year, actually.
• 7:35
  Played better, they covered against Cal and they just lost
• 7:37
  to Virginia 17 to 16 and overtime did.
• 7:40
  Cover though as an. 11 1/2 point home dog.
• 7:42
  And they went for two which would have won the game.
• 7:44
  And the guy? Got stopped right at the 1 yard
• 7:46
  line. So really tough one there.
• 7:48
  For Belichick. On the other hand, Cuse 3 and 5.
• 7:51
  Just got beat up by Georgia Tech. 41 to 16 didn't cover as a
• 7:55
  17 point. Road dog so.
• 7:57
  What do you see across the market here?
• 7:59
  Well. It looks.
• 8:00
  Like this line move is going toward.
• 8:01
  Cuse. You know Cuse.
• 8:02
  Opened around a pick. -1 1/2 they're up to -2 -. 2 1/2 circa
• 8:08
  only 40% bets 49% dollars. The splits actually at
• 8:12
  DraftKings look. Better on North Carolina.
• 8:15
  Contrarian Lo bets higher dollars.
• 8:17
  So the markets telling me Cuse, but then Rhythm is telling me
• 8:20
  take the 2 1/2 with North Carolina.
• 8:22
  So I don't want to. Touch that either way.
• 8:23
  Again, conflicting angles there. Like the Memphis rice game,
• 8:28
  markets toward rice. Rice is a rhythm edge.
• 8:30
  Right cuse and UNC, Rhythm says take UNC.
• 8:35
  Market says take Cuse. So what I'm going to do is.
• 8:37
  Focus on the total here. This was a pretty clear under
• 8:39
  play for me I. Took the under 40. 5 1/2.
• 8:43
  Now it opened. As high as 40. 7 1/2 and we've
• 8:46
  seen it get down. To 40. 5 1/2 and all the 40.
• 8:49
  Five and a halfs out there are even juiced up minus. 1:15 to
• 8:52
  the under. So it doesn't look, it doesn't
• 8:54
  look like it's going to get back up to. 46 if anything looks like
• 8:57
  45 1/2 might be. Your best number DK.
• 9:01
  The under is only getting 38% bets but 54% dollars and UNC is
• 9:06
  one of the slowest teams. In college football, they are
• 9:10
  averaging. 62 plays per game. That ranks 126th.
• 9:14
  Out of 130. Six teams.
• 9:16
  So again. You're slow, you run the clock,
• 9:18
  you know you run the ball. That's good for an under if you
• 9:22
  have been. Wondering unders on Friday
• 9:24
  nights have done very. Well, this season the.
• 9:27
  Under in Friday night. Games are 19 and 1359%.
• 9:32
  With a 14%. ROI and if the Friday night
• 9:35
  total. Falls at least a point.
• 9:37
  Which is the. Case here.
• 9:38
  The under improves to 10 and. 471% with a 37% ROI this year.
• 9:44
  It doesn't hurt that our friends at Rhythm have the total at.
• 9:47
  44.5 so we can still get that 45 1/2.
• 9:51
  Should still be available. I believe I got it at.
• 9:54
  I want to say FanDuel. Or maybe it was.
• 9:55
  ESPN bet, but. Under 40. 5 1/2 at -115.
• 10:00
  Hopefully a lower scoring game. Here UNC and Q.
• 10:02
  So give me that. Under for that.
• 10:05
  UNCQ scheme under 45 1/2. So race plus. 14 UNC QS under 45
• 10:11
  1/2 now. I do have a player prop for you.
• 10:13
  I was. Looking at the NBA.
• 10:15
  Slate tonight I got to admit and banging my head against the
• 10:18
  wall. We started off good.
• 10:19
  I think we're. Two and O with.
• 10:20
  Our NBA overs early and. Then I think.
• 10:22
  We've lost three straight so I. Don't want to?
• 10:24
  Touch the overs, but I do want to isolate a player prop here.
• 10:28
  So I want to focus on the Nuggets.
• 10:31
  Blazers game for tonight. Now.
• 10:34
  If you look at the market, it looks like the lines going to
• 10:37
  the Blazers is a late. Game 10:00 tonight.
• 10:40
  So, Nuggets. Open around -5 1/2.
• 10:42
  The line is down to 4 1/2. So.
• 10:44
  Again, moving a little bit toward.
• 10:45
  Portland The total is another high one. 236 1/2 now it's been
• 10:50
  bet up to 239 1/2, but I'm going to focus on a player.
• 10:53
  Prop here so I. Want to look at and again when I
• 10:57
  look at rhythm, what? I try to do is go game by game.
• 11:00
  And then look at the. Green Star recommended plays.
• 11:02
  And then kind of use a little bit of my.
• 11:04
  Own market research. So I landed on Jeremy Grant.
• 11:08
  He comes off the bench. For the Portland Trail.
• 11:10
  Blazers. But.
• 11:11
  It's kind of a. Lot to like about.
• 11:13
  Jeremy Grant now. If you look at some of his
• 11:15
  stats. Here Jeremy Grant on the year is
• 11:19
  the second leading scorer. For the Trail Blazers.
• 11:21
  Averaging 21 points per game and he's only plays around 27.
• 11:25
  Points per game because he does come off the.
• 11:26
  Bench so. Hopefully you know.
• 11:27
  Coming off the bench, you would think you.
• 11:29
  Know going up against. Lesser defenders.
• 11:32
  But I looked. At his points, rebounds and
• 11:34
  assists, so. Combined scoring, rebounding
• 11:37
  and. Again, assisting it's. 20 1/2 in
• 11:40
  the market. And it is juiced up a little bit
• 11:42
  here. So if you look across the board.
• 11:44
  20 1/2 / - 120 - 130 across the market, but I took the.
• 11:50
  Over because if you look at the rhythm recommendation.
• 11:53
  It is a Green Star recommended play and.
• 11:57
  It is predicted by rhythm to finish with. 29.7 points,
• 12:03
  rebounds and. Assists.
• 12:05
  So again. If you're over 20 1/2 you need
• 12:07
  21. Rhythm is predicting basically
• 12:09
  30. That is a nine point rebound
• 12:12
  assist edge off. Of the predicted.
• 12:15
  You know, or the. The number here that obviously
• 12:17
  the sports. Books are offering.
• 12:19
  So if you look at a lot of his game logs here.
• 12:23
  He's scored 29 points, 22 points, 17 points, 22 points,
• 12:28
  18. Points.
• 12:29
  His assists were one. 2:03. One rebounds 322. 33 So this is
• 12:36
  a high total. Game that's rising.
• 12:38
  If you look at. Grant going over 20 and half.
• 12:42
  PRA this year he's. 4:00 and 1:00.
• 12:45
  To the over over. 20 1/2 and he's 2 and O at home.
• 12:49
  Then my last thing is, hey, let's.
• 12:50
  Get the best price. Fanatics is over 21 1/2. -1 O 5.
• 12:56
  ESPN bet is 20 1/2 / - 125. Caesar's is over. 20 1/2 - 122
• 13:02
  FanDuel is over. 20 1/2 - 130 But bet MGM.
• 13:05
  That's where I played this one over. 20 1/2. -120 so again,
• 13:09
  save getting the best juice price here.
• 13:12
  But it's juiced up. Liability over.
• 13:14
  He's gone. Over this number in four of his
• 13:16
  five games. He's 2 and O to the over.
• 13:19
  This number at home, It's a green star rhythm.
• 13:21
  Recommended play the line is. Dropping a bit toward the
• 13:24
  Blazers. So maybe it's a competitive.
• 13:27
  Game back and forth. He'll be off the bench.
• 13:29
  Still getting good minutes though against lesser.
• 13:31
  Defenders and this total. Is on the rise.
• 13:34
  So I took a shot on. Jeremy Grant.
• 13:37
  Of the Blazers over. 20 1/2 points, rebounds and assists and
• 13:41
  again, rhythm with a Green star recommended.
• 13:43
  Play is projecting. 29.7 so. About a nine point edge.
• 13:48
  Points, Rebounds assist edge. But can be Jeremy Grant over 20
• 13:52
  1/2 now. Looking toward the weekend,
• 13:55
  let's run through some of our plays that we are have in pocket
• 13:58
  here. This is.
• 14:00
  One that I took. A shot on and didn't look great.
• 14:02
  Because I was thinking. You know.
• 14:05
  Arch Manning may not play. I don't know the updated number
• 14:08
  or the updated status of Arch Manning.
• 14:10
  But I did take Vandy +2. At the time, Vandy was trending
• 14:14
  down to 1 1/2. And I thought 2 would be a good
• 14:16
  number because, hey, if Arch Manning's out, that 1 1/2 might
• 14:19
  get down to a pick. EM or even go to Vandy -1.
• 14:22
  Well, again, I don't know the status of Arch Manning.
• 14:24
  But this line did go back up to Texas -3.
• 14:28
  What I do have some. Confidence in Still with Vandy
• 14:31
  is #1 if you haven't played it yet, you can get the key number
• 14:33
  of three. But the rhythm prediction.
• 14:35
  Here is Vandy plus 1.3 and Vandy plus 0.8.
• 14:42
  So it is your most heavily back game.
• 14:44
  The lines kind of. Gone back and forth.
• 14:47
  SEC conference dogs have done well.
• 14:49
  This year. And even.
• 14:50
  Historically, they are. 57% against the spread.
• 14:53
  Since the start of last year. Vandy would match a.
• 14:56
  Short Rd. dog getting 4 or less so again I got a bad plus. 2
• 15:00
  with Vandy. If you want to play it, you're
• 15:02
  at. You can now get a three.
• 15:03
  But you may not. Want to wait too long because it
• 15:05
  looks like it may get back down to 2.
• 15:06
  And a half but. Maybe some consolation here.
• 15:09
  Rhythm still got about a one. Point game.
• 15:11
  So I did play Vandy again. Bad +2 for me.
• 15:14
  You want. To play it.
• 15:15
  You can take. The three now, if you're
• 15:17
  interested. Oklahoma and Tennessee.
• 15:20
  This one is definitely. A gross one.
• 15:23
  Because seems like it's. An obvious Tennessee play.
• 15:26
  Oklahoma lost out right. Don't remind me against old
• 15:29
  miss. But if you look at.
• 15:31
  Kind of what the betting market is thinking, they think this
• 15:33
  Tennessee line. Is way too short.
• 15:35
  Because Tennessee is getting 79. Percent of spread bets, but the
• 15:40
  Vols. Opened -3 1/2 and they're down
• 15:42
  to three. So why is this line dropping
• 15:45
  toward Oklahoma if everyone is playing Tennessee?
• 15:48
  That would match with a SEC conference dog system.
• 15:51
  Play short Rd. Dog getting 4 or less.
• 15:55
  Rhythm has Oklahoma +2 and plus 2.3.
• 15:59
  I did jump on. Oklahoma plus 3 1/2 earlier this
• 16:02
  week at -120. So you might be.
• 16:04
  Able to. Shop around and find the hook.
• 16:05
  Although a. Lot of these books.
• 16:07
  Are three juice toward Oklahoma looking like it'll get down to 2
• 16:10
  1/2? But still going to ride.
• 16:13
  The Sooners here again. I got a 3 1/2.
• 16:16
  You can still. Get a three but rhythm.
• 16:17
  Has around A2 point game with a good sharp line move line
• 16:20
  moving. Toward the Sooners.
• 16:22
  Even though Publix on. Tennessee.
• 16:23
  And then K State. K State is at home against Texas
• 16:27
  Tech. And everybody and their mother.
• 16:30
  Is on Texas Tech ranked team. Obviously looking pretty good.
• 16:34
  This year. Little bit of a.
• 16:35
  Disappointment for the. K State Wildcats.
• 16:39
  But if you look at. Texas Tech ranked 13th overall.
• 16:42
  They're getting nearly 70% of spread bets at DraftKings, but
• 16:47
  they pretty much were sitting -7 -, 7 1/2 and all those 7 1/2's
• 16:51
  are getting scooped up and it's getting down to. 7:00 So that
• 16:54
  tells. Me that that hook 7 1/2.
• 16:57
  Is again. Kind of the sharp wise guy play
• 16:59
  here if you look at circa K. State's only getting 40% of
• 17:04
  bets, but 90% of the money. And also K state would be.
• 17:08
  A unranked dog VS ranked opponent.
• 17:10
  Home conference dog and we have rhythm with two.
• 17:14
  Recommendations on K state? One is +6, one is plus 5.8.
• 17:18
  So around a six point game you can get 7 1/2 against the
• 17:21
  public. I took a shot here on the
• 17:23
  Wildcats lose by 7 or less. Or win the game.
• 17:26
  And make everyone happy. I'm on K state plus 7 1/2.
• 17:30
  Got to get the hook there. Now over to the.
• 17:32
  NFL even when. He got a sharp dog.
• 17:34
  These dogs are getting taken to the woodshed, getting blasted
• 17:37
  like old the other. So I played three favorites
• 17:39
  here. But what I like about these
• 17:41
  favorites is they have Sharp. Line moves, and they're not.
• 17:44
  That public, which is a good thing, because still you.
• 17:47
  Know the public's killing it. I don't want to be.
• 17:49
  On a favorite. Getting 80% of bets that.
• 17:50
  Kind of goes against everything. That I've come to learn about.
• 17:53
  Sports over the years. But the.
• 17:55
  First bet for me is the Bears money line.
• 17:59
  Bears are on the. Road at the Bengals.
• 18:01
  It looks like Flacco will play. There's a question whether he
• 18:03
  would or would not. But this line is.
• 18:05
  Really moved toward Chicago. Chicago opened.
• 18:08
  Around to pick them. Chicago's now been bet up to -2
• 18:11
  1/2 -, 3 Bears are only getting 54% of spread bets, but 78% of
• 18:17
  spread dollars. So again.
• 18:19
  In undecided public. But money on the.
• 18:21
  Bears favorites off a loss this year are.
• 18:23
  Covering 67% of the time. But what I like about this money
• 18:27
  line which you can shop around and get around a -, 150 at this
• 18:30
  point is the fact that when both teams are coming off a loss,
• 18:34
  take the favorite that is a 17 and five straight up system 77%
• 18:38
  this year and you have non conference.
• 18:40
  Faves straight up. Again, lack of familiarity.
• 18:44
  Benefiting the quote UN quote Favorite or better team 69% this
• 18:47
  year. And then also again.
• 18:49
  Bengals defense got. Shredded by The Jets, Flacco.
• 18:53
  Again, covered that great number for US against Steelers.
• 18:56
  I think that was the last. Primetime dog that covered for
• 18:58
  us I like. Chicago in the spot Which?
• 19:01
  You are with this. Favorite trend?
• 19:02
  You're just not that public and you got the line move.
• 19:05
  So I did play. Bears money line.
• 19:06
  Around -150. Next one Denver and.
• 19:10
  Houston, this is a really. Gross one, but it's.
• 19:12
  Right up my alley because everyone's playing.
• 19:14
  Denver 74% of spread bets, but the line has moved toward
• 19:18
  Houston. A lot of these books open
• 19:20
  Denver. Pick em or Denver -1 1/2 and now
• 19:24
  we flip to Houston. -1 1/2 so. Dog to.
• 19:27
  Fave line move even though Houston.
• 19:29
  Is only getting. You know, 20% of bets, 25%.
• 19:32
  They have flipped dog to fave. We do have.
• 19:35
  Both off a. Win.
• 19:36
  Take the favorite. That's a 73% straight up system
• 19:39
  since 2022 and favorites. Straight up this year.
• 19:42
  Just in general are 53 and 2172 percent, 3% ROI.
• 19:47
  So again, it looks gross, but Pat's or?
• 19:49
  Tan is hurt. Houston's got the number one
• 19:51
  scoring defense. They.
• 19:52
  Might get a couple of their wide receivers back.
• 19:54
  I think they've won three or four.
• 19:56
  I played Houston with a sharp dog to.
• 19:58
  Fave line, move on the money line.
• 20:00
  At -120. Five, then the big.
• 20:02
  One the granddaddy of them all. Kansas City Chiefs.
• 20:05
  Buffalo Bills 425 your your late window game.
• 20:09
  I would. Argue it should.
• 20:10
  Have been your Sunday night game but.
• 20:12
  I'm going to go, Chiefs. To win the game on the money
• 20:14
  line. Now what I like about the
• 20:15
  Chiefs. Number one, this line has moved
• 20:18
  in their favor. This was basically.
• 20:19
  A chiefs -1 opener. Chiefs are now up to -1 1/2.
• 20:24
  Some shops. Even up to -2.
• 20:27
  Public is split and doesn't know where to go.
• 20:28
  It's a 5050 ticket count but on the money line.
• 20:31
  Chiefs only getting 40% of bets but 60% of dollars.
• 20:35
  So again, I guess the theme of the week is money lining short.
• 20:38
  Favorites at Circa. Only 50% of spread bets.
• 20:41
  But 64? Percent of spread dollars are on
• 20:44
  the Chiefs and I do have a Green Star smart signal.
• 20:48
  Recommended play so the. Best of the best from Rhythm
• 20:51
  telling me to take the Chiefs on the money line.
• 20:54
  And that is a recommended play here.
• 20:57
  They have chiefs -2 so it's not really an edge on the 1 1/2.
• 21:01
  But a good. Green Star recommended play
• 21:04
  smart signal on the Chiefs. To win the game.
• 21:06
  So I did money line the Chiefs, I want to say.
• 21:09
  They're like -125 S some. Some lower money lines here
• 21:14
  again I don't know how many times I can.
• 21:15
  Continue to bang. My head against.
• 21:17
  The Wall and hope these dogs. Play well and cover.
• 21:18
  Because it just ain't happening right now.
• 21:21
  But we do have some. Favorites with good sharp.
• 21:23
  Line moves and rhythm. Recommendations.
• 21:24
  So I did. Play Bears, Texans, Chiefs we
• 21:27
  can get. Two of.
• 21:28
  Those three to win. That would be That would be
• 21:30
  awesome. So that about does it for
• 21:32
  episode 386. Of the all.
• 21:35
  Systems go Sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 21:38
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 21:41
  always start first by. Saying thank you, thank you for
• 21:43
  listening, thank you for tuning. In thank you for grinding while
• 21:47
  things aren't going our way. Because we know it's going to
• 21:48
  turn we. Just got to stick with it, but
• 21:50
  there's highs and lows there's. Ups and downs, this is.
• 21:52
  The bad part of betting? When again, everything you,
• 21:55
  everything. You touch turns to.
• 21:56
  Crap when usually hey, you can grind.
• 21:58
  Out a profit you just got to. Keep keep sticking with it.
• 22:02
  Keep grinding here guys. So thank you for.
• 22:04
  Listening through the UPS. And the downs right now.
• 22:06
  But as always, if you do want to help me grow the pod, please
• 22:10
  could you give it a 5 star? Review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 22:13
  Leave a nice. Comment under the review.
• 22:14
  Section click the follow. Button recommend the pod to a
• 22:17
  friend that would. All be really great.
• 22:20
  Next if you want. To learn more about data-driven
• 22:22
  betting. Go to Amazon.com.
• 22:23
  Type in the NFL. Sharp.
• 22:25
  Betting playbook or the. Everything Guide to sports
• 22:27
  betting. Those are my two books that I've
• 22:29
  written. Both available on Amazon.
• 22:31
  You would make my. Day if you wanted to pick one
• 22:33
  up, learn more about data-driven betting support the team.
• 22:35
  And you can bring. Them to the.
• 22:36
  Sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 22:38
  I'll buy a. Beer or ginger ale?
• 22:40
  And we'll sweat some games together next, have you?
• 22:44
  Downloaded Rhythm and Juice. Real yet?
• 22:46
  Thank you all who. Tuned in last night to the
• 22:48
  Rhythm rundown. But if you haven't downloaded
• 22:50
  Rhythm and Juice Real yet, go do it now.
• 22:52
  Rhythm is great for their AI backed.
• 22:54
  Models and predictions for game bets.
• 22:55
  And player props you. Can have college hoops coming
• 22:57
  back on Monday, which is great and then we have.
• 23:00
  Juice reel where you can get the all systems go best bet picks.
• 23:04
  For $4.99 a week if. You want to support.
• 23:07
  The team and tip. Your podcast host.
• 23:09
  But then also you will get the robo Jackson best bet picks the
• 23:11
  sharp mush indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop
• 23:14
  for. The best sign features.
• 23:15
  All available when downloaded. Juice Reel.
• 23:18
  So download Rhythm download. Juice Reel give them a 5 star.
• 23:21
  Review in the App Store. Next that you have.
• 23:24
  A live odds page if you don't. Have one.
• 23:25
  You need one. Maybe you have one, but it's
• 23:27
  really expensive. Or maybe you have one and it's.
• 23:30
  Quote UN Quote Live but. It's really delayed and.
• 23:32
  It's way. Behind it doesn't update in real
• 23:34
  time and you have no clue. You know where?
• 23:36
  They're getting the lines from well.
• 23:38
  I would recommend going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 23:43
  Test out. Odds logic for seven.
• 23:45
  Days 7 day free trial. Get 50.
• 23:47
  Percent off your first. Month of service.
• 23:49
  It's the best live odds page. Around and it's going to.
• 23:52
  Again, allow you to. Track the market.
• 23:53
  Identify. Steam Shop.
• 23:55
  For the best price I use it everyday and it is a great
• 23:58
  great. Piece of.
• 23:59
  Information so again 7. Day free trial 50.
• 24:01
  Percent off your first month but.
• 24:03
  You got to go. To oddslogic.com slash.
• 24:06
  Josh, 123. Next, have you?
• 24:10
  Signed up with Novig yet? Novig is a sports betting.
• 24:12
  Exchange, so it's not. A sports book.
• 24:15
  But it's like a sports book, but the.
• 24:16
  Difference is you're not betting against the house.
• 24:18
  Who's going to gouge you with big juice prices?
• 24:21
  It's an exchange where you're betting against fellow betters.
• 24:24
  So you won't get limited when. You win you.
• 24:25
  Won't get booted. And you're going to get much
• 24:28
  better juice prices because again, you're not going against
• 24:30
  the house. So you're going to get. -1 O 5
• 24:32
  -, 1 O 7. Plus one O 2.
• 24:34
  Plus one O 4. So you can win at the same rate,
• 24:37
  but make more money because you're paying less.
• 24:39
  Juice. As a bet to.
• 24:41
  Risk versus bet to win better. So if you want.
• 24:43
  To download Novig, go do it right now and.
• 24:46
  Then when you fund your account, make sure there's that.
• 24:48
  Promo code you put in. Josh 123 for 100% deposit match.
• 24:52
  Up to 25 bucks. So that about does it for
• 24:55
  episode 386 of the ASG pod. I tell you what, guys, I'm
• 24:59
  excited for Halloween. I'm excited to get this week.
• 25:01
  Over with, because nothing went our.
• 25:02
  Way. But hey, 52 weeks in the year
• 25:04
  you have a couple where things don't.
• 25:06
  Go your way, just as we're going to have.
• 25:08
  Many where we're stacking units, so let's.
• 25:10
  Get back to our winning ways. Finish off the week strong as
• 25:14
  always guys, whether I see you at the.
• 25:15
  Borgata in Atlantic. City Twin River in Rhode Island.
• 25:18
  The Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 25:21
  Connecticut at the encore in Boston plain Ridge park casino
• 25:24
  MGM Springfield the Nash. And my neck of the woods on the
• 25:27
  border of. Nashua, NH and Massachusetts.
• 25:30
  Are out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 25:32
  Or Billy. Walters sends his number.
• 25:34
  Runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South.
• 25:36
  Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping.
• 25:39
  In the stadium swim. Pool.
• 25:41
  When you cash a. Big ticket at Circle.
• 25:42
  Wherever it may be, guys, I know.
• 25:44
  It was a one and two night losing night, but we.
• 25:46
  Finally had a winner there. So again, baby steps.
• 25:50
  You know. Maybe a little glimmer of light
• 25:51
  at the end of the tunnel. Flash me that.
• 25:54
  Two overpassing yards ticket. First one's on me next.
• 25:57
  One's on you. We'll post about the book and
• 25:59
  sweat some hopefully winners here for tonight and throughout
• 26:01
  the weekend. So as always guys coming off.
• 26:03
  A1 and two or a two and one. A3 and O&O and three.
• 26:06
  Whether you're ice cold or red hot, never get too high or too
• 26:09
  low. Things are going great.
• 26:11
  Don't think betting is easy when things are not going your way
• 26:14
  and you're struggling. You know, don't.
• 26:16
  Don't. Quit.
• 26:16
  Or or punch a. Hole through a glass.
• 26:18
  Window even even though you probably really want to but.
• 26:21
  If we can stay even. Keeled and weather the.
• 26:23
  Storm. I think that's key.
• 26:25
  Next bet mentality. I think we're going to do OK
• 26:28
  long term. So as always, guys against the
• 26:31
  public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
• 26:33
  and get that COV if we can do that.
• 26:35
  Long term we're. Going to be successful betters.
• 26:38
  But have a great Friday. Have an even better.
• 26:39
  Weekend have a great. Halloween.
• 26:42
  And I'll. See you back on Monday.
• 26:43
  For episode 380. 7. Of the All Systems Go sports
• 26:47
  betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
• 26:49
  Good luck everybody, and save me a Reese's.
• 26:52
  Pieces or a Reese's Peanut Butter cup, I should say.
• 26:55
  Happy Halloween.