Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MLB DFS | 6/02/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MLB DFS | 6/02/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear the left of what's going on.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Everybody happy Monday afternoon with my man maids talking some
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: six game MLB six games on DraftKings, six on fan
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Duel seven, ten Eastern start time. No weather concerns at
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: all in terms of like it's gonna get canceled. Some
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: pretty good weather out there to note though, Mai, it's
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: how we doing today on this Monday afternoon.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Could be better, but you know, we got to keep
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: moving on and you know, do what do what we
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: do best, right and break down the slates. Keep your
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: mind off things going on outside of the kind of
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: outside of the DFS world, things like that. But I'm
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: looking forward to breaking this one down. My Brewers are
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: on the slate, so it should be a fun one.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Definitely a big game to talk about there. Head into
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati and they're scorching hot right now. I knew it
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: was gonna turn around some point. That roster is just
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: too talented for kind of the beginning part of the
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: year that we've seen there, So looking forward to breaking
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: them down. Yeah, a lot of really good weather spots.
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: I mean there's four really really good hitting conditions. One
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: really good spots that kind of stands out above the rest,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: not really seeing ownership go to that.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Well, we'll break it all down, but looking forward to
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: jumping in here.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a solid six game Slate Gonna
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: take it down in the sect. But first Pop Stoner,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: Jason Turner, Michael Peterson, Lyle Chai, Redbank, Kenny, Easy Gang, Green,
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: heg our Man, Shaloup, Hope, everybody out there having a
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: great day. All we ask here like button subscribe button
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: helps us out a ton bring new shows on this
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: channel every single day. And if you do want to
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: join us at ship a nation, absolutely no better time
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: to join. The reason you'll not see a bit. You
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: will not see a better deal than this. Usually ninety
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: nine dollars for all the content for all sports projections, Ownership, Slate, plan,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: et cetera, the Stone and Discord and Sabersim Core, which
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: will be showing off Sabersim like we do on all shows.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: By far the best optimizer in the business, So Sabersim,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Discord and Olliver content usually ninety nine dollars as you
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: can see right there. For the core, use the code
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: djen seventy five get you seventy five dollars off your
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: first month less than a dollar a day. Absolutely cannot
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: beat that if you already have used that one, though,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: I do think the Starter Pack. We think the Starter
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Pack is the best value. For only thirty dollars more,
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: you're able to build three or fifty more teams and
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: get two sets of projections ownership. Of course that ship
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: to Nations, you'd get Sabersim's projections own on the Starter
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: Pack and Contest flashback allows you to see what anybody's
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: doing if they're playing the tournament in any single sport.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: You're able to reverse engineer, try and pick up tips
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: tricks on their player pool, on what they do in MLB?
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Are they only five to two wing? Are they only
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: five to two three? Are they doing some weird stuff
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: like that? How's the ownership looking all that? You can
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: go back in contest flashback and look at all that
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: good stuff. So again, Djen seventy five, the code the
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: best deal if you have not used it yet. After that,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: the best deal, we believe is the Starter Package. Who
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: else have I not said? I too? I think Ricky
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: I said Hi, Huan, what's going on? Juan Jake? I
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: think I said hi to easy Messing with Sabers sim
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: as you speak. Oh yeah, you could be on there
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: for days messing around. So much power and that so
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: many videos they have Saber School up here in the
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: top right can help you out a lot, a bunch
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: of YouTube videos, office hours, NonStop learning with that happy
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: fifty K Monday. Our guy Jake says, all right, I
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: think that's enough housekeeping. I think we can talk some
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: six games that we got on tap against seven to
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: ten Eastern start time. No weather concerns in terms of
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: game will get canceled. Let's I'm going by pitching ownership
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: Flarty number one, Joe Ryan number two, Logan Web number three,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: Dustin May number four, and after that we see a
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: big ownership gap between those four up top. Looking at
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: bats quick just like the broad slate, Brewers implied for
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: pretty solid four and a half and above Reds four
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: and a half and above Angels Boston, Detroit, Minnesota Dodgers,
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: and I guess you could say Matt's right there. But
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: multiple teams on this short slate still expected to put
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: up a good amount of runs with some OK pitching.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: So Nate's any broad slate if you have anything otherwise,
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: start with pitching eight K, Dustin May all the way
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: to Joe Ryan ten k. What are we doing there?
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick before I do that. Kenny asked a
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: good question, and many members out there. There's probably a
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: lot of members watching this or I'm gonna be watching
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: us back on playback leading up to Locke talking about
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: if you only run a field lineup tonight, would you
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: recommend upgrading to Starter pack to Ultimate?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: It all depends on your bank roll number one and number.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: Two, kind of your your how serious you are really
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: in the df S streets. I know everyone that's listening
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: to the show is pretty serious, but it is kind
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: of a hefty price tag. There's a lot of value obviously,
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: title myself, the rest of the team here, we all
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: use the Ultimate pack, and I look at SIMS and
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: kind of run a bunch and kind of put as
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: much as as I can into the slate plan. When
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: I'm doing the Slate Plan talking about that, I would say,
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: if you're playing over one thousand dollars a month, I
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: think it's worth it. You're you're it's about two hundred
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: and ninety seven dollars three hundred and twenty four after
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: the first kind of month with our kind of package
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: over here at Shipping Nation, and there's a lot of
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: value to it. I know, it's definitely a hefty price tag.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: You get so much value. You get the ability to
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: change the ownership inputs to higher field, smaller entry stuff,
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: right to see kind of what the ownership looks like
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: in those contests, et cetera.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So there's definitely a lot of value in it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: SIMS are kind of the baseline, which is where kind
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: of the price point comes in, and there's a lot
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: of value in SIMS.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: And I know in added value for ship Nation subscribers is.
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: The one on one coaching round tables that our guy
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: Real does.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I know there's one coming up MLB.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: In particular with Yeah tomorrow be on there with with
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: Tambo and Rio kind of breaking down the ultimate on
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: how it applies to MLB and how some of the
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: best MMY players in the world, with with Sheets and
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: Rio use it for MLB to have success, multiple six
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: figure ships by those two already this season.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of value in it.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: For sure, It's not for everyone, but I do think
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: if you're playing a decent amount of money a thousand
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: dollars or a month, I think it definitely makes sense to.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, great, shout there. I'll add one thing and then
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: you can take it into pitching. I think Nates hit
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: it on the head. What your how much volume you're
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: playing is almost like that's all that. It determines it
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: for me. So if you're playing right here, you see
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: two hundred ninety seven, let me get off this two
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: hundred ninety seven dollars a month. If you don't even
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: play two undred ninety seven dollars a month in contest
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: fees and entry fees, of course, that'd be one of
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: the dumbest investments you can ever make, paying more or
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: the same per month as the volume you're playing. For DFS,
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: not at all. Like Nate said, one thousand bucks, I
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: think that'd be a pretty good baseline, twelve hundred something
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: like that. They're very powerful. It takes a little bit
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: to get used to so many videos out there. But
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: like Nate said, Rio like whoever is an ultimate member,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: we have a zoom link. They hop in the zoom
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: with Rio with Tambo with sheets tomorrow. You can ask
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: any questions you want. If you can't make it, it's
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: pre recorded, so that alone, if you're an Ultimate member,
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: you get access to that, which is really nice, and
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: they are very powerful. It's hundreds of thousands of play
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: by play simulations in baseball. They're going through every single
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: at bat, running that game out hundreds of thousands of times.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: And when they do pop up in the winner, when
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: you build those teams in the simulations, when you're seeing
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: them like that one a simulation, that exact team that's
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: showing one one of those hundreds of thousands of simulations.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: So I think it's very powerful. Nobody even close in
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: my opinion, the business has done it better than Saber
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: sim I've been using them for years, had a lot
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: of success. They constantly keep trying to improve as well,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: which is very nice. Being the best, you still want
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: them to try and keep improving. They have definitely done that.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: So I think if you're playing more than a thousand dollars,
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: maybe give it a try for the month. If you're
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: playing less than eight hundred bucks, maybe not worth it
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: just because you want to put more money into your contest.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: You're not guaranteed to win at the end of the
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: day just because you are using sim So I'll end
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: that part on that.
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, No, excellent overview is it's kind of Flaherty and
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: Joe Ryan and then Red Sox and Brewers and kind
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: of Tigers. Some of the Tigers is what I'm seeing
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: in terms of the dry run. Tiger's in particular getting
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: slammed due to the price points and the color or
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: the Chicago pitching staff there. It's pretty good weather overall
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: in Chicago here, So it's Boston Detroit mainly in terms
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: of optimizers because they allow you to spend up double
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: spend pitching and Flarty, Joe Ryan, Logan Webb's going to
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: get some ownership.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: But I think we're a little hot overall right now.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: Kind of broad slate overview in terms of projected ownership,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: just because projections drive the DFS landscape in today's world,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: and I run dry run.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I talk about it all the time.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: It's one of the most underutilized tools in all of DFS,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: Campbell talks about all the time.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: And you just get an idea of what.
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: Kind of similar players are going to be playing in
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: your fields when they run projections there and kind of
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: gives you a good idea of what, like I said,
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: what the landscape of the slate sets up to be.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: And it's finely Flairty and Joe Ryan. Projection wise, it
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: is a clear cut two guys at the top and
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: then Detroit and or the Tigers and the Red Sox
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: is kind of what projections are saying. Whether that's right, wrong, indifferent. Well,
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: we'll do our best to kind of break through it.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: But that's kind of my broad slate overview there. Taking pitching,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: you want to do the entire slate just because there's
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: there's not much or stick to it.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, let's see this said, Let's start from all
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: the way on the bottom, uh, Savale and just tell
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: me like easy cross like cross off, cross off. Let's
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: just go bottom the top and start crossing and then
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: we'll circle back and see what we got left.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: So I do think Savali's in play down at six K,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: reason being I think he has run some more behind him.
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: The Reds are going to pick up ownership, so there's
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: double leverage there, and they have a ton of strikeouts
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: throughout that lineup.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I know Eli Dan Cruz is on a tear.
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: I know it's a good hitting place to play, but
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: at six K on a slate where you have the
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: Dodgers that are super expensive, right, you have the twins
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: that are up there in price. Some of the Tigers
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: bats are up there in price. I mean, you definitely
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: can build teams with some salary savings. So I like
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: him a decent amount down there at the clear punt
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: as the cheapest pitcher on the slate. Blackburns out, Dobbins
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: is out, dick Fits is out. Canon I think is
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: interesting in tournaments. Probably not a main team type play,
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: but the reason being is, I mean, this Tigers team
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: is going to pick up a ton of ownership. Cannon
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: has pitched way better at home than he has on
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: the road. If you look at his home road splits
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: on the season, He's pitched way better at home than
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: he has. He is, in my opinion, their best pitcher.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: Now that's not saying much when you got kind of
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: the school of blind as a pitching staff, right, but
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: there is some upside there. At sixty eight hundred, nobody's
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: going to play him double leverages the slate, and he's
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: put together fifteen plus Fantasy point games on the season
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: and he's sixty eight hundred, So I.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Don't mind him.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: I'm out on Sevarino, Tyler Anderson, I mean on I
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: think he's a pretty solid play. I'll hit on Singer
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: in a little bit because I kind of found a
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: nugget right using sabers him to my advantage. On Singer there,
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Dustin May, I think he's in the pool. Colec, I'm
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: out on. I just don't think he has the striking
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: upside at eighty two hundred. I'm much rather play Dustin
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: May or get up to Flarity and then the top
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: three guys so pretty much. I'm excluding Colec, dick Fits, Dobbins,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: and Blackburn for sure, and Severino. Those are kind of
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: the guys that are getting the acts from my pool.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: We can hone it in more if we need to.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: I'll touch on the guys at the top. Logan Web
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: I think is the most interesting play at the top
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: of the board because he sandwiched between the two Chalky's
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: pitchers on the slate. He's got by far and away
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: number one, the best pitching park on the slate and
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: the best pitching weather. I get it right, Sandygo. Sandyego
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: doesn't strike out a lot. However, it's the same thing.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: The White Sox actually have a sub twenty percent k
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: rate against right handed pitching, and Flarerty's right below him
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: at nine thousand dollars, and nobody's really worried about that.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: People are worried about the Padres strikeout rates against right
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: handed pitching, and Logan Webs in the by far the
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: best environment. I think he's the lowest on of the
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: three aces at the top.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So I really like Logan Web.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: People are gonna say, well, San Diego just got to
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: him last time.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a daily fantasy sports game for a reason.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: Right at the end of the day, all these pitchers
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: can have something going on, et cetera, any any little
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: thing right and in any of these hitters can get
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: to any pitcher at any given day. I don't use
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: past performance to kind of make all my decision making process.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: I look at it a little bit. I don't think
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: anything's wrong with Logan Web. He's ground ball pitcher in
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: the best pitching environment on the slate and a nails
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: bullpen behind him, So if he gets the lead, it's
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: there's a pretty good chance. And I think that's a
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: low scoring game on the entire slate, So I like
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: Logan Web the most at the top.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Flarity pretty hard to avoid.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: Flarity on the slate only six games I talked about
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: the White Sox strikeout rate. It's sub twenty percent against
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: right handed ching at home this season. But Flarity at
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: nine K, I mean, that's just a miss price. He's
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: got a ton of upside here. It's still the White
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: Sox at the end of the day. I'm in on him.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: I much prefer Flarity as the chalk on the slate.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: I'm actually significantly underweight on Joe Ryan for a couple
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: of reasons. Number One, he's the highest priced pitcher on
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: the slate at ten K. He's in by far and
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: away the best hitting environment on the slate, and it's
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: not even close. There's ten to fifteen mili hour winds,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: blown out temperatures in the upper eighties in a cracker
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: Jack Triple A ballpark out there in Sacramento, which leads
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: all of the major leagues in runs scored at night.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: So number one.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: Additionally, too right, he struggle with home run power, and
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of lefty power in that A's lineup,
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: and two righty's in Langlears and Rooker, who both can
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: hit the ball in the air. Joe Ryan gives up
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: five balls and he gives up power. So I'm underweight
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: on Joe Ryan. I'm not playing him on either of
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: my main teams. I play two teams tonight. M ME,
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: I would include him for sure, just because he has
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: a ton off side. If I'm throwing one guy out,
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: it's Joe Ryan at the top. So for me, it's
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Web flarity at the top. Dustin May is pretty interested
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: in me. At eight K, I don't think he's a
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: very viable pitcher. However, if you look at the last
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: three starts, his strikeout rates are up. Everything's up. He
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: should have run support behind him, right. I like the
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: Dodgers' bats. Everybody likes the Dodgers' bats against Paul Blackburn
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: and that Mets staff. There is strikeouts to be had
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: with that Metts lineup. He's kind of the wild card guy.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: At eight K.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: I have a hard time believing that he's gonna be
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: twenty eight percent.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think I think flarerity. We
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: could be looking at like sixty five sixty and then
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. I do think like Joe Ryan.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: I think it's flarity. Joe Ryan is the chalk pairing.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: But I do think more people will agree with the
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Logan Web statement of the ballpark, like comparing the Ryans
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: to the webs seeing the projected ownership, and that might
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: be kind of how we have it projected. Maybe they're
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: both higher owned, but a close gap. I do think
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: we're because I'm taking the average right now with sabersim
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: and ship it. And again, it's really hard to predict ownership.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: You can add a lot of value yourself in doing
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: that and create your own fields on the ultimate plans
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: with the new ownership. But I think Flerty's like sixty five. Yeah,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: I just do not think Dustin May can get up
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: to that twenty eight percent by any means, Like twenty
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: is seems a lot more fair, but it is a
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: six game slate with little pitching, so who knows.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think people look at the Mets automatically
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: and just say, I'm not going to play a guy
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: on the Dodgers pitching staff, right with all of the
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: issues that Dave Roberts has with his pitching, right, pulling,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: pitching early, et cetera.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: The one guy he doesn't seem to do that with much.
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, Dustin May, his pitchcount should be right around
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: ninety ninety to ninety five pitches or so which is
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: right in line with the restless slate if you look
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: at it in terms of pitches. Saber also has that
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: that's kind of a lotted right on there. Flerty's really
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: the only guy that's up there in terms of pitch
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: count compared to the rest All of them outs are
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: pretty much within a couple pitches of each other, so
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: I'm not really worried about his pitchcount.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: I think either's strikeouts in that Mets line up, especially at.
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: The back half of that lineup, and Dustin May's looked really,
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: really good over the last three starts, so at eight
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: K I'll take a chance on him. Brady Singer is
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: the one interesting guy. The reason being is when I
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: ran Saber and ran the dry run and then filtered
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: to kind of Saberscore right with the proprietary simulations and
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: which accounts for ownership and kind of the nature slate
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: run totals everything. Dry run gave me zero Singer when
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: I went to projected score for which makes sense right,
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: He's projected almost four points right below Dustin May for
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars less. It's just not going to hit
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: points per dollar wise, But when you flip the Saber score,
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: it wanted to push almost thirty percent of Brady Singer.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: The reason being is number one Brewers Bats are going
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: to pick up a ton of ownership. Singer is at home.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: The game's pretty I mean, four point seven implied team
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: total for the Reds.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: The Reds are facing Aaron Savali.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: He could definitely be in line for the win easily here,
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: and it leverages the field. So I get the reasoning there.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: I don't love it, but that was one guy that
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: stood out when I ran the dry run. Him and
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Tyler Anderson are the two wildcards for me on this
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: entire slate. Saber is definitely higher on them in their
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: simulations and their kind of proprietary formulations behind the scenes
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: when you filter to Saber score and kind of take
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: a look at the nature of the slate, it is
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: a six game slate. At the end of the day,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: there is gonna be guys that you have a hard
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: time stomaching, right, and those two guys for me are
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Singer and Anderson on the slates.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: I just think there's upside there.
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: Seventy two hundred, seventy five hundred leverages the slate, and
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: I trust Sabersim.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Saber Sim's won a lot of people a lot of money.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: It's won me a lot of money.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: And those are two of the guys that they're definitely
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: higher on when you filter by our projections and their
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: projections as an average like I do, like you have
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen. Those are the two guys
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: that are the kind of the wild cards for me
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: on the slate. Everyone else Savali is just strictly a
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: price point play. He's not gonna go out there and
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: get you twenty DraftKings points, but at six k if
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: he gets you ten to twelve and the Dodgers go
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: off for ten runs, right, the high priced bats on
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: the slate go off for eight to ten runs in
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: positive hitting environments, that's where Savali would come into play
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: for sure.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: I like where we're at with the playerpool. A couple
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: quick thoughts, So these four all the way on the bottom.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: If I had to pick two of my favorites, I
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: think I'm just picking the too lowest owned and I'm
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: getting the most direct leverage, and I think that's Tyler
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Anderson and Jonathan Cannon. I think Detroit's going to be
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: very popular. Like you mentioned, I think Boston at least
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: a couple certain bats. The price sig just absolutely stick
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: out way too much, and when you look at it,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: like their pitch count all pretty similar besides Savale who
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: also Savali is getting the most ownership in this lower tier,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: and the reason for that, he's just the cheapest pitcher
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: viable pitcher on the slates. And like the run totals,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: the Reds have less than Boston, the Brewers, Detroit, etc.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: So it all makes sense that way, but nothing by
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: any means it's fun to stomach down here. So again,
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: might as well give me the lowest owned and the
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: most direct leverage and Anderson and Cannon. You can easily
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: just play these four pitchers any combination if you want,
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: like Ryan Logan web the two most expensive. Very easy
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: to do on this slate. Now, yes, maybe you can't
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: get the Dodgers. Dodgers will be decently low owned. You
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: can get a mini something, but plenty of these bats,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Like there's cheap bats throughout almost every single lineup on
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: a slate like today, how I have it, Flairty's definitely
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: number one even at this ownership like it just I'll
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: pick on the White Sox every single day, the Joe
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: Ryan stuff, the ballpark people talking about like a lot
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: of fastballs, fly balls, et cetera. As the highest price
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: pitcher and the second second highest own on the slate,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: I would rather go Vogan Web in that game environment
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of indifferent with Dustin May. I think he's
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: getting the a. We don't think he's twenty eight percent,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: probably closer to twenty twenty's still noticeable on a slate
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: like this, especially when he's projected for fourteen and a half.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: The reason he's getting owned is really just it's a
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: pricing game. There's no picture anyone wants to click on
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: low eight K and that one k difference from Flarity.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: It's one k, but a lot of people will go
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Flarity May. So if I was to play Dustin May,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: I think I almost want to go Logan Web or
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan Moore because I think Flarity May will be
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: more than chalkier pairing, and I feel more comfortable eating
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: chalk bats that way. So that was one thing I
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: had here. I don't love May. I think these three
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: are much better. It's a crap shoot down here. Anderson Cannon,
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: I think have the most direct leverage and the lowest
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: own solid pitch count, so I take a chance it
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: is not fun by any means. Last thing I want
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: to do. I know many people I think enjoy when
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I mentioned k props on the slate, and that'll wrap
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: up pitching for me than to see if Nate's as
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: any final thoughts will talk bats but hies on the
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: slate K prop Joe Ryan six and a half minus
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: won twenty on the over number two, Jack Flaherty six
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: and a half minus one twenty five on the under
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: number three, Dustin May five and a half minus one
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: seventy five on the under number four, Logan Web four
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: and a half minus one fifty on the over. But
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: guys like Cannon minus four or four and a half
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: minus won twenty five on the under, not bad Savale
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: the same thing four and a half minus one twenty
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: five on the under, Singer four and a half minus
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: one twenty five or minus one fifteen on the under.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: So all of these guys like, we're talking seventy cents
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: juice with the same exact number from a guy like
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: Logan Web who's twenty five hundred more so again, smaller
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: slate teams are supposed to put up runs. I think
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: Flaherty probably goes out and has a great game. But
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: if you're SP two, if Cannon Anderson, Singer, Savale, if
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: one of them got you thirteen fourteen, very very well
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: might be enough to get to the optimal on mis
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: slate and let you get up to bats and then
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: pay your SP one pay up for one of those
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: three guys. So that's how I have it. I would
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: not play two of to be honest, I wouldn't play
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Mace two of May, Singer Anderson, Cannon Savalle in twenty
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: years below. I think I would anchor my teams around
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: one of these three, and mainly it'd be Flaarity, but
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: I'm not played Flarity more so be Web, but I'd
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: be fine with the Ryan May pairing as well. I
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: do not want two of these five guys right here.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Any final thoughts for you Tonight's and we'll go to
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: some bets.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: No, I like that, and uh, some of the stuff
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: that I look at, I'm seeing Canon is kind of
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: the third best option on the slate to to earn
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: a quality start from simulation data in terms of matchups, ownership,
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: everything like that. So he's kind of my wild card guy. Again,
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: like you said, right, anyone below May, even May, I'll
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: throw man into that same group right, May and below.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: None of them are by any means a fun click
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: right stomach a bull. May has the most upside and
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: by by far just in terms of strikeouts. But again
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: he's gonna be the highest oone of the of the
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: bunch as well. And we talk a lot about ownership
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: on this show right now, because it's six games slate, right,
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: and pitching is very weak outside of a couple of arms,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: so it's very condensed, and you can't just go in
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: and play the same way as everyone else does. That's
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: not the way I play in tournaments. If you're gonna
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: do play cash games, good luck beating title over there.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: But you don't have to beat them, right, you can
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: just join them in the old gas streets, unless it's
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: the old headed head. But no, I think we broke
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: down pitching pretty good realistically, single entry, three max stuff
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: a year, sticking to the top four guys, web Flaharty, May, Ryan.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: I put Ryan last because I'm lost on Ryan overall.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Out of those four.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, awesome breakdown. That's pitching. We're gonna move to Bats.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I appreciate that makes my life a little easier. Hit
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: the like button for us. It does help us out
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: a ton. Thank you, Devin Davis, Hope everything going well
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: with you. First game of the six and again fandul
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: and drafting same slate seven ten Eastern Boston Red Sox
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: and the Los Angeles Angels. Tyler Anderson on the mound
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: for the Angels and Boston, it looks like more of
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game. This Richard fitzguy, the opener that we're
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: looking at Hunter Dobbins. Is it potential long reliever? Regardless,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: it's more bullpen stuff for the Red Sox. I hate.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I don't like picking on bullpen games,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: so I will say that I do hate picking on
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: bullpen games. But as the slate gets smaller, the more
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: viable becomes when ownership is pretty much nonexistent, because most
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: people don't like picking on bullpen games. Angels, people aren't
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: gonna play them, even though we're showing like this ownership.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if I believe that they're going
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: to be this high owned. I think they'll be like
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: six percent, seven percent something like this, even on this
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: short of a slate. Can you make a case for
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: four and half run total, low ownership, guaranteed ninth inning
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: at bats at Fenway, and then talk about the Red
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: Sox against Tyler Anderson, who are going to get some
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: decent ownership.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'll start on the Angel side. I actually
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: have interest in the Angels. I don't think anyone's gonna
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: play them, especially Mike Trout. I mean, I get it,
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: Mike Trut's coming back, but I mean the dude's sub
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: five k for one of the best hitters of all time.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Regardless of what you want to say with the injuries,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: et cetera.
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: This Angels team has a two to eleven IO as
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: a team against right hand and pitching on the year,
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: Dick Fitz is gonna go out there and throw at
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: least three innings. In my opinion, he hasn't gone less
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: than three innings in any of his four starts on
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: the year. He has been a starter. I know they
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: there's talk with Dobbins and that they're gonna kind of
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: probably split the majority of the game. I could see
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: like a three three or like four for Fits and
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: three for Dobbins, something like that, because this bullpen for
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox is pretty taxed overall. I go, I
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: know only two guys through yesterday, one of them being
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: their closer and Chapman right.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: But Friday they used a lot whitlock through a lot
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: of pitches, so it's not a great bullpen by any means.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: They're kind of middle of the road is the Red Sox.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: It's good hitting environment in Fenway, probably preferring more as
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: a mini stack the Angels fillers just because they're cheap,
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: they can fill and their direct leverage right off the
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: other side of the game. Everyone's gonna use the Red
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: Sox side as fillers. Guys like Ref Schneider right, Christian Campbell,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: Trevor Story Tooral may Or the right kind of all
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: these guys are sub sub four k for the most part,
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: right outside of the two guys that so I think
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: I much prefer if I'm playing the Red Sox the
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: two most expensive guys at the top, just because that's
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: gonna be unique. Most people at the outfield and third
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: base position are gonna play either the Dodgers, They're gonna
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: play the Brewers, They're gonna play some of those Tigers
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: up spend up outfielders and save money with the Red Sox.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I much rather just flip it.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: Personally, this team has a twenty six percent k rate
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: against left handed pitching. I much prefer the Red Sox
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: against right hand and pitching. I mean, only two guys
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: in this team have an ISO north of two hundred.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: That's Trevor Story Rob ref Schneider. But Ref Schneider is
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: gonna get pinch hit for as soon as Anderson's out
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: of the game. He could only see two at bats right,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: and he's gonna be one of the most popular bats
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: on the entire slate. Narvaias it has been hitting good.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: He's got some power. The rest of this team, I mean,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: even with three guys that have a lot of power
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: on the current season, it's left handed pitching.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Their team ISO is still at one thirty six.
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: Right, I want home runs in baseball, in DFS baseball,
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: and at this ownership, I mean, I'm I'm selling on
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: How much prefer or the Angel side? I get it.
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: The Angels bullpen is horrible right second second or third
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: worst in baseball. Now, the A's kind of took over
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: as the worst bullpen in baseball. But between the Nats,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: the A's and the Angels. It's kind of a horse
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: a piece, to be honest. So there is late inning
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: upside for the Red Sox. But I'm I'm definitely under
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: on the Red Sox Tyler Anderson. I'm stacked against this
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: dude a lot. He just I don't know how he
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: does it. He continues to go out there and just
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: put together quality start after quality start and just scape
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: by disaster. We haven't ranked really good in our pitching
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: rankings as well. It's just I like the Angel side
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: more in particular, a lot of right handed power perform
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: more as mini stacks.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Mike tro Out my favorite bat.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: I'm agree in agreement with being under on the Red Sox.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: I think like my two favorite bats would be Duran
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: Endeavors because yes, they are getting some ownership where I
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: really think people are going to Yeah, I mean nervaias
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: a catcher. Batt and cleanup at thirty five hundred will
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: always be played total like this Trevor story. Can see
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: the io. The wOBA number is great. Yes he is
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: in the seven hole, but shortstop onesie position only thirty
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: three hundred. Those guys are gonna get clicked. So then yes,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: you can easily five man the Red Sox because you can.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: People will play four k guy in the three hole,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: thirty five hundred guy in the five hole. You only
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: can play one a Toro Organzales because they're both first base,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: but both are very cheap. So it's so easy to
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: five man stack this team and spend up at pitching
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: if you want. I just it's not a recipe that
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: I want in a six game slate at the end
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: of the day. So if I did play it, I
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: think the lefty lefty Duran Devers is a one off
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: more so, but I don't even love that because if
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: I'm fading more of a chalky team, why do I
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: really want to spend up for a one off on
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: that Chalckey team. Like if those guys fully get there,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: more than likely their team probably puts up eight ten
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: something like that. So yeah, more I look at it
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: pretty much a no Red Sox. Yeah, like the Angels
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: shout though, like low own a team, they're not going
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: to be played good hitting, weather, solid run total, get
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: trout back, fair pricing. Everything you said checks out a
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: lot right there. Let's keep it rolling. Next game on
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: the site, Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers. We are
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: looking at a let's see nine total minus one fifteen
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: on the over great American small park, always a place
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: we love playing bats. Two pictures where they're cheap. Sofali's
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: getting some ownership, Brady Singer grades out well in the
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: picture rankings. Kind of what you were going back to,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Saber sim you looked at that are picture rankings like
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: it too. You're not going to get much direct leverage
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: with either team, but yeah, fair pricing on both sides.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: One thing I wanted to say before I throw it
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: to you, an absolute insane stat. Our man Jason Turner
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: just showed official Ellie has more strikeouts than Tony Gwynn
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: had his entire career. That's pretty crazy. Obviously, the quality
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: of pitching and all that has changed a little bit
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: does have some insane stuff. But yeah, that is a wild,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: wild stat. What have you got in this one for bats?
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Reds Brewers.
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll hit on the Red side. I just outside
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: of Ellie. I mean this team, I just I don't
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: like this team much, to be honest, much prefer the
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: Brewers side here.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I mean you got Will Benson hitting fifth or sixth.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: I mean Stevenson strikes out at almost a fifty percent clip,
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: So I mean, you have your clean up guy striking
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: out fifty percent of the time, it's pretty hard to
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: get a rally going right. Ellie's my favorite bat by
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: far in the Reds. I think he's a fine one off.
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: He seems pretty low owned in general, which is pretty crazy.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: He's still in the base upside too. I know Savali
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: is pretty tough to steal on, but Ellie, I mean,
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: Ellie's a special character himself. So people spinning up a
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: shortstop are going to go to Mookie Betts. I think
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: Ellie going all the way up to the top is definitely,
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: definitely pretty intriguing. He's my favorite guy by far. Outside
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: of that, I'm I'm all off the Reds in general
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: Bruis side, though I do have interest. I know Bratty Singer,
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: britty Singer gets hit hard by lefties. Terraing is smashing
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: the ball right now, Freelick smashing the ball right now.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: Yelich is looking good. I know he left the game yesterday.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: X rays came back negative. He seems to be fine.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: He wouldn't have played tonight if the team thinks he's not.
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: Brews are running hot right now. Talked about it at
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: the start of the show. I like hot streaks and baseball.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: I not just being a homer here. I follow metrics.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: I've barely played the Bruis at all this season. I
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: like more mini stacks for the Brus just because I
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: want those lefties. In particular, Freylik is my favorite bad
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: at his price point thirty eight hundred and how he's playing,
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: He's been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: the last month.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Cherio has been a complete stud. This entire team is
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: red hot right now.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: There's always stolen based upside, and O Singer doesn't give
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: up a lot of stolen bases.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I don't expect Singer to be in this in this
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: game super long.
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: And then you got stolen based upside with the back
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: half of that pen and another call out. This reds
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: Bullen is not any good by one and number two
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: they're pretty taxed and Suitor threw a ton of pitches yesterday,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: which is one of their main lefties out of that pen.
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: So you talk about you have terrang Yelich and Freelich
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: majority of there and Bauers another power lefty in their
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: majority of their bats.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: In this game, full nining at.
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: Bats are going to be against right handed pitching with
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: temperatures in the eight upper seventies, low eighties, no real
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: wind to worry about.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: But it's one of the best hitting parts in all
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: of baseball. So I love the Brewers side of things.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: I prefer more as kind of a mini stack with
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: mainly those those lefties there, and then I always add
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: in obviously Caterrere's Chario Hoskins, who's been really good. Don't
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: like Ortez in Monasterio is much Monasteri is my least
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: favorite bat in this lineup, just because I think he's
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: gonna be probably one of the most popular ones, just
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: because you can play him at a second base and
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: a short supposition and he's twenty three hundred, So that's
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: an easy click for people as a one off at
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: second base. Right when they click in their Otani's, they're Freeman's.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: Their breadths of the world are Will Smith's of the world.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: They're gonna need salary somewhere, right. They go in and
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: click Joe Ryan, and they click Flairty, Well, they need
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: salary somewhere right, And you see a guy with almost
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: a five run total at twenty three hundred in this lineup,
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: they're just gonna click that name there. So he's my
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: least favorite. But I definitely like the Brewers quite a bit.
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: They're probably my top stack on the slate, mainly left
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: in particular.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: They're not my favorite, they're probably like three or four,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: though I like it. You made all great cases, good hitting, park,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: guaranteed Nightthony at bats, tax bullpen, and you mentioned singers.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: This is one of the spots in baseball. We talked
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: about it a lot on this show. Singer's gonna be
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: low owned if you're playing ten teams, Hecketniates could even
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: be playing three teams. Let me ask you this, would
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: you be fine going singer on one team completely overweight,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: obviously you're not five man in against your own pitcher.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: But then on the next team where you're not playing
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: singer five man Brewers. Is that something you ever do?
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Is that something you'd be fine with today?
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: No, I do that a lot. Actually, that's kind of
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: the Campbell talks about it all the time. Right a portfolio,
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: it's not like you're playing against yourself. You're playing against
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: a field of tons of entries. Right, even in single entry,
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: you're playing against thousands of people. I make a portfolio.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: I play two to three teams, and a lot of
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: times I'll play either a mini stack or a five
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: man stack. And if it's a guy that's either Saber,
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: like I talked about right with Saber score running the
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: dry runs, looking at projections, looking at different simulation and
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: they're kind of a little bit up there on Singer.
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: That's a spot where, yeah, I'll play both sides. I
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: do it all the time. It's baseball at the end
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: of the day. We talk about it all the time. Right,
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: the best hitters in the world phil seven out of
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: ten times, so it's the highest variant sport in all
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: of sports.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: And you can easily play both sides.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wanted to make a shout too quick,
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: so I refreshed the stone because I knew, like as
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: the lineups come in, we have the Brewers lineup. It's confirmed.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: Now you can see it. We had it projected. But
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: I also noticed picture rankings, some stuff changes, team totals
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: changed throughout the day, K props all that, so that
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: gets updated. So Singer went from he was three, I believe,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: all the way to ten. So that's big when just
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: looking at like that makes me like the Brewers more
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: and side with them than a singer. Tyler Anderson went
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: from I believe like eight or something to number five,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: which is also an interesting shout. He was one of
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: the guys we had below. I preferred him mainly just
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: because Boston's getting more ownership than the Brewers, but that
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: was something to note. Singer went way down, Anderson went
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: a little up that way. So again you can see
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: all that MLB hitter rankings, picture rankings, stack rankings, A
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: lot of it is on the stone as well. Projections, ownership,
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: slate plan Today or Man Big Nads breaks down, favorite pictures, stacks,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: slate plan, a big write up as well. PGA going on, MMA,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: Big Boye pay per view this week, NBA Finals Showdown,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: contents always, projections, ownership, NHL, Stanley Cup time, NASCAR, so
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: how much going on even without the NFL. And again,
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: if you haven't joined, no better time, we would love
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: to have you at the Nation. Usually ninety nine dollars
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: for all the content for sabersim and for the discord,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: use that code djen seventy five get you seventy five
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: dollars off your first month, less than a dollar a
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: day to try us out. Discord Sabersim optimizer content absolutely
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: cannot beat it. We would love to have you next
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: game on the slate. Definitely one of my favorite stacks
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox, Jack Flaherty and
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Jonathan Cannon on the mound eight and a half total
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: minus one twelve and over. Big boy favorites are the
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Tigers at minus two thirty eight. The smaller the slate,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: the more I'm willing to get a bat against my
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: pitcher or something like that. I don't love it going
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: against Flaherty today, but Mike Telpman definitely would be fine
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: with him homeward yesterday. Platoon advantage, Andrew Benattendi grades out
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: well in the hitter rankings. All these guys are going
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: to be low owned. It would mainly be a one
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: off helpman Ben attendee, and more so if I'm not
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: playing Jack Flaherty itself. Flerty clearly my sp one Tigers.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: Highlight the Tigers though, so a lot of people. But
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: if I had to pick a favorite stack in a
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: vacuum again, it is the chalk So I hate saying it,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: but I want to pick on the White Sox all
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: their pitching rotation, Like, I don't think Jonathan Cannon's all awful.
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: I don't think Ben Martin's awful. The thing is, they're
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: not great. If it's a bad outing for them, you
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: get this awful bullpen for a long time. Even if
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Cannon has a solid five innings, all right, I still
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: got four more. The Tigers can put up a crooked
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: number that way, they're cheap. Plenty of lefties in the lineup. Yeah,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: I one through nine. I'm good playing the Tigers, but again,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: they will be owned. If you go Tigers with Joe
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Ryan and Jack Flaherty, you're gonna be holding hands with
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of people that way, So think about how
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: to use them. They're number one for me, though. Break
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: down this one White Sox Tigers.
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the Tigers are fine. I mean, the
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: lefties are who you want. I think they get Parker
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: Metal's batter tonight as well. He has a lot of power,
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: pretty solid hitter in general against right hand and pitching.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: My two favorites are Kerry Carpenter or Riley Green. Then
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: two most popular bats. I'm sure Coke Keith is interesting
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: then too. In Parka Meadows if he does crack that
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: lineup when Seal Perez, I think is decent.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: They're all solid. I prefer some other teams more on
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: this slate.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: I'm going to talk about the game later on this
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: evening that I just think has a ton of upside.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: I'm a huge weather guy in baseball and ballpark guy,
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: and I just don't think it's getting the love that
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: it deserves. So I kind of put those teams a
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: little bit ahead of the Tigers. But yeah, I mean,
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: all the points you made Tigers really good plays. The
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: reason they're getting played so much is again it's it's
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: all math, it's all projection driven. And their highest price
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: hitter on the team is forty eight hundred. The rest
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: of this team is all sub four k for the
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: most part. It allows you you can five man stack
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: the Tigers easily play Joe Ryan play Flaherty.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: A lot of people are like, Okay, if I'm five
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: man stack and the Tigers, I'm expecting them to go
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: off higher chance for Flerity to get the extra four
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: points right from a pitching standpoint, so everything checks out there.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: I agree, you can't really say much about them. I
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: think their solid stack for sure. And yeah, you talk
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: about the bullpen. It's not the worst bullpen in baseball,
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: but they're a bottom ten for sure. There's nothing nothing
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: special by any means on the White Sox side. Talkman,
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: I like that call, Ben Attendi. I like that call,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: and I think these are some of the pivots. I
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: won't even mind a two man stack on the White
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: Sox on non Flarity team. So say you go like
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: a Joe Ryan and a Logan Web type team. Right
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: while you're saying those two guys are gonna outscore Jack
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: Flaherty in that same range enough, or even like a
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: Logan Web Dustin May type, right, you're because you're using
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: Dustin May to outscore Flarity. And then you leverage with
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: two White Sox who have power and talkman, Ben Attendi,
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: I talked about their strikeout rates. I would play the
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: guys that just don't strike out against right hand pitching
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: because you always have a chance.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Right that they're putting ball and play. Anything can happen
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: to get on.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: They can steal bases like Chase me Drothel Steele, he's
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: thirty five hundred at short stop.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I get it. You want lefties in particular, against Flerity but.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Flarit again pretty league average strikeout rates, he lost some
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: fly balls. So I think it's a decent little mini
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: stack there, and they're direct pivots right off some of
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: those Boston guys right who are gonna be much much
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: more popular. And yeah, I mean I think it's a
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: decent little leverage play. I'm not going in in five
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: man stacking this team by any means, would limit it
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: to two man or one off see in particular.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: YEP, I agree. So you mentioned the park Parker Meadows
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: possibly returning. He is. We did get that lineup like
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: a men, Holla said. So he's leading off definitely gonna
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: be pretty high on thirty seven hundred will be chalky.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: Then they got Labor carry Carpenter three, Riley Green, four,
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: Dingler five, Keith six, mckinstreet, Perez, Hobby Baias to wrap
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: it out. So you can see a little different than
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: we have for projected. But Parker is leading off definitely
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: throws a wrench into some things. I mean, metal is
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: gonna be super high on Carpenter, Green, Labor, Colt, Keith
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: is free with dual eligibility like these dudes. Perez in
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: the sixth spot three point one k. Yeah, man in
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: a vacuum, But this team's gonna be super chalky. That
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: new lineup makes it even worse.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm telling you when I ran the dry
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: run in Saber, one hundred and fifty teams and filter
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: by projected sixty five percent of stacks were from the Tigers.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: So if that tells you anything there, I mean, that's
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: it's I get it right. They could easily go off.
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: But when you go off, I mean, if you have
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: one of the wrong guys, well you're not gonna win, right,
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: because they're the Chalky's team in the slate. Everybody's gonna
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: have them. You have to hit all five guys that
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: you need for the Tigers. You could probably make money, yeah,
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: for sure. But we're not playing the min cash, right.
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: We played tournaments here. We're playing for the top prize.
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: These top these tournaments are so top heavy that even
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: if you five man stacked the Tigers, right, I mean.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: You have to nail all five of them, right, You
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: have to nail all five.
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: If you have one of the guys in there, that
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: only gets you six and the rest of the lineup,
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: all these guys have twelve to twenty. Right, Well, you're
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: not gonna You're not gonna beat all of those other
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: teams because there's gonna be people that go in there
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: and play sixty percent Tiger stacks in their mmec MM sets,
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: even in their single untry stuff. Right, people just go
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: in and slam this team because it allows you to
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: double spend a pitcher and take all the quote unquote
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: variables of the pitcher out of play. Right, they'll just
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: play Flarity and they'll play Joe Ryan and just say, Okay,
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: I'm just going in on the two popular pitchers. I'm
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: gonna play the Tigers and hopefully it works out.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: Man, they're definitely the chalk on the slate with Ryan
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: and Flaherty. So I would think about a way to
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: get different, whether you're fading Parker Meadows and cold Keith
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: the two chalk gets bats and doing something different. That way,
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: you're pivoting into sp one as Heck, maybe you're not
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: playing Flarity or Joe Ryan and you're going Logan Web
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: dustin Ay or something like that. I just would be
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: cautious when playing the Tigers. What bats. If you are
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: five Manningham doesn't mean I don't like them, though, I
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: think the lineup's really good.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Next one on the slates definitely gonna be very low
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: own San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres seven
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: and a half total, which is the lowest on the
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: slate by a lot minus one eighteen on the under
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: Logan Web is getting some ownership. Can you make a
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: case for the Padres at direct leverage Giants against Kolik. Yeah,
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: I'll let you take it away. It's a game theory
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: game at best, and I just don't like it. I'd
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: rather have the Angels than both these teams.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: I'd rather play the Angels, and there's another team I'd
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: rather play much more in much better park. What I
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: will say, though, is the stolen base guys for the
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: Padres would be the guys that I would play. Xander Tatista,
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: ma Chana, merrill Ariyas are the main guys you're looking
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: at that steel bases. Logan Web does give up a
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: lot of stolen bases twenty two over the last two seasons,
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: So it would just be that sucks. The weather sucks.
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: Logan really good bullpen, ground ball pitcher. There's just I mean,
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: it's just the game theory at best. I mean, all
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: these dudes are going to be two percent if if
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: that in terms of ownership.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: I don't love it.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: I don't like anything really from this game in my
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: main teams, in pretty much all the teams that I'm
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: playing tonight, I'm not really going to have anybody in
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: this game. Giants side don't love it against Colec. I mean,
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: this dude is not a good pitcher. I don't know
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: what's going on right now with this. I mean all
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: of his stat cast underlying metrics just look terrible. I mean,
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: does he blow up here? Could be a spot right.
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: Giants have won a lot of people a lot of
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: money this season when nobody's really talking about them. This
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: ballpark is okay for home run hunting at night. Chapman
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: Adamis have a lot of power. Y Stremski some of
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: the pot power guys for US. Has had a pretty
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: good season. But again, I don't love it. Colek gets
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: into trouble. They have a really good bullpen. Both these
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: teams are top five in baseball in terms of bullpens.
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: Park sucks just one off mini stacks only. If that's
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: more mmy.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: Give me the A's in this next game at very
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: similar I talked about the Angels. I think the A's
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: you can compare to both those teams in terms of ownership,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: in terms of pricing. The big difference. You get a
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: lot more direct leverage off of Joe Ryan. So yeah,
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: we're taking this next taking us into the next game.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: The best hitting environment on the slates, Man, is it
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: a good one eighty degrees win? Blowing out in Sacramento
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Luis Severino Joe Ryan on the mound. Joe Ryan gives
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: up fly balls like man, is he a lead against righty's,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: especially in terms of strikeouts. So you prefer the lefties,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: A couple of projected lefties in the lineup always like
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Lawrence Butler, Soda Strum. I mean even the rightis if
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: you did mix men like a Brent Rooker. Shay Langleier
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: is very cheap, has some power. Again, he can give
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: up fly balls, very lead against righty's in terms of strikeouts.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: Several Reno on the other side, keeps the ball on
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: the ground, the complete opposite as Joe Ryan that way,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't miss too many bats, sitting at about
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: like twenty percent. I just signed me out for this game.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: With the hitting weather, with the ballpark, with the winds
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: blowing out, it's the pricing. I like both sides of this.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: Twins would be number two behind the Tigers in the
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: vacuum for me in terms of favorite stacks, and I
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: think the A's are up there when looking at all
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: the leverage you can get on this small slate. So, yeah,
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: what do you like in this game?
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, dude, thing, I'll say number one for the Twins.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: I like the Twins a ton they'd probably I mean
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: I would much rather have the Twins than Tigers, for sure,
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: in a very similar spot at a quarter of the ownership,
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: I would assume, just because they're slightly more expensive and
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: people are gonna look at Sevarino. I mean his strikeout
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: numbers and his swinging strike rates are at a career
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: low for his entire season, and naturally right when you
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: have to throw, I mean you're not getting swing and miss.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: His balls are going to be in play, winds blown out.
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: It's a small park, right, no stands to built up
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: to really hold the wind out. And I mean the
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: A's bullpen is the worst in baseball behind Sevarino and
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: their tacks at that, So I love this Twins team
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: kind of circling back.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: I said the Brewers earlier.
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: The Twins are my favorite stack on the slates, just
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: with the I like them both a lot slight edge
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: to the Twins, though I get it several rein now
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: right overall historically keeps the ball on the ground, but
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: these guys can hit the ball in the air.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I like the lefty.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: Power wallner Larnock. There's some pinch hick concerns there, but
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: I'm not too worried about it. Overall, Buxton, I really
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: like Jeffers, I mean, this entire team. If brooks Lee's
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: in there, I like him a ton. I love the
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: Twins here and then on the athletic side, I mean
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: you kind of stowed the thunder a little bit. This
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: is my favorite sneaky stack on the entire slate. Nobody's
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: gonna play them. Everybody's gonna play Joe Ryan tons of
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: fly balls. I get it, he's elite versus righties. But
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: these righties for the A's have a lot of power.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: Right Rooker laying lears, I don't care if they strike
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: out twice. They can definitely hit it. I mean they
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: could have hit a home run. They could have hit
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: a double whatever. I mean, you're playing a DFS game.
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: You're not looking for a batting average aspect, right, and
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: then the other right, he's like Jacob Wilson, never strikes out.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: I get it.
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: Joe Ryan has elite stuff against right handed hitters. I'm
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: playing the game theory approach in a good park. I
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: like the a's quite a bit and you get some
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: cheap bats at the back half that are pivots off
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: of the Red Sox and pivots off of the Tigers lineup.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: I get it.
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: They're not great hitters. But I'll take a chance on
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: a two K guy anytime, right. I mean, if he
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: gets you zero, it doesn't kill you, right. If a
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: six K guy gets you a zero, it's a little
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: different story. So I like this game of ton my
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: favorite game on the slate. I like both of these
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: teams a lot.
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: I like it pretty lockstep today, Nate's see on this
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: last game of the slates. Again, appreciate all three hundred
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: hanging out. Hope everybody having a good Monday so far. Again,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: all we ask is the like button, the subscribe button,
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: and if you do want to join us at the Nation,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: you know where to find us. DJN seventy five is
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: the code to get you seventy five dollars off your
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: first month only twenty four bucks. Optimizer the best one
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: out there. All the content like five six sports going on,
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: even tennis, like the French Open, all that's going on.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: We don't charge for tennis. We don't have a tennis content,
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: but we have multiple sharp people in the discord. Shoutout Picket.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: A lot of them talk, they're dfs, who they like, bets,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: all that, et cetera. So by far the best discord
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: out there. Shout out to everybody that's been involved. All right,
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: last one of the slate, Last game, Los Angeles Dodgers,
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: New York Mets, Dustin May, Paul Blackburn on the mound.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: We are looking at a nine and a half total,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: minus one point fifteen on the under hitting weather seventy degrees,
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: wind blown out, a little bit very fair. Nice night
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: in Los Angeles. Paul Blackburn. He just doesn't miss bats.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: Another ground ball pitcher, but does not miss bats, and
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: that is not a good recipe when you were playing
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: this Dodgers lineup, I mean, Max Monty's finally hitting the ball.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Otani's out of this world. Freddie Freeman's out of this world.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: You can ease play this team one through nine. I'll
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: throw it to you on this Do you have any
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: Pinchhick concerns with any of the guys on the Dodgers?
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: And then are you playing any Mets?
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: Probably Rushing. If Rushing's in there and Will Smith is not,
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: I'm seeing kind of a couple of different projected lineups.
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: If Rushing starts this game, He's definitely gonna get pin
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: hit four for Will Smith if this game is remotely close,
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: So he's probably the biggest guy outside of that. I'm
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: not seeing anyone really in this projected lineup that I'm
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: looking at the Dodgers. I mean Paul Blackburn, Like you said,
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: he's a decent real life pitcher overall, not great for
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: DFS purposes. I'm not playing Paul Blackburn against the Dodgers
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: on this slate. There's just no reason to do that.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: You actually want righties against him. Looking at last season
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty seven played appearances, he gives a
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: lot more power to right He's still ground ball guy,
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: but where he allows more fly balls is more to
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: the right side and a lot more power you're talking
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: to two thirty four io versus a one to twenty
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: eight flyball rate twenty two percent, which again is not good.
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: But this entire Dodgers lineup outside of TiO Hernandez is
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: all thirty one percent or higher on the current season.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: It gets right hand and pitching. It's a gauntlet lineup
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: to go through.
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: Mets bullpen is pretty solid behind Blackburn, and the price
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: points on these Dodgers is pretty concerning, but again it's
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: one of the best teams in baseball, one of the
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: best lineups. I prefer the right handed power more so,
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: and more so mini stacks just due to the salaries.
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: Right So, Mookie Betts I like a lot, Tommy Edmond Pages,
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: nobody's gonna play Pages. TiO Hernandez has a ton of power.
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: He's fine. If Will Smith is in there, I like him,
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: hit him a lot. I'm more so on the mini
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: stack side of the Dodgers game. I just like other
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: hitting environments better. I like the salaries better for other teams.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: And then on the Mets side of things, Dustin May
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: is going to get played on this slate for sure.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: Looking at what you want to attack against him, he
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: allows a ton of right handed power as well over
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: the course of the last kind of thirty days, even
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: when you date back to kind of last season one
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: seventy eight ice or one seventy three IO against right
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: handed pitching or right handed hitters, excuse me, thirty percent
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: fly ball rate, So it'd be the it'd be the righties.
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: Lindor is obviously a stud I mean, switch hitter. He's
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: got a ton up side always, but I would start
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: with Pete Alonzo. More mini stacks only for me. I
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: don't love it personally. I'm more on the side of
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: Dustin May Good. Dodgers bullpen behind Dustin may as well,
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: so if he gets some issues, they're going to play
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: the platoon game and have a lot of good relievers
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: in there. So overall, it's more mini stack in this game.
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: Dodgers my preferred side, just like everyone else.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned the thing with the Dodgers of the pricing,
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: and that is why you see the ownership right here.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Like the Dodgers will get owned, no doubt about it.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: But they're not going to be top three on the
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: slate probably for sure, not top two, because when you
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: play them, you're almost forced to play one of those
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: savales and er sins all that in the world. You
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: can go flirty May and then go Dodgers and cheat
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: mini somewhere else like a Benettendee Takman or something, but
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: just the pricing alone, and that's good. You you want
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: that when you don't want the Dodgers to be thirty
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: percent on. I prefer playing the Dodgers when they're like
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: eleven percent owned and still the tide for the highest
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: run total on the slate. You just have to make
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: other things work. It's the beauty of the game. We
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: play DFS, so I like making way.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's two things with the Dodgers too.
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: Even if the Dodgers go out and score six seven runs, right,
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: you might think that's great it. I mean, at their salaries,
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: they have to and the top tier pitching kind of
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: has to bust right because you can't play both sides
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: of it. So you just need kind of so much.
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: If you're five man stacking the Dodgers to go right, right,
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: you need the top three arms right who are clear
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: cut by far, projection wise, everything, the three best pitchers
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: on the slate. Even if I'm underweight on. There's a
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: case where Ryan's the highest scoring pitcher easily on the slate.
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: You can't five man stack the Dodgers and play two
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: of those spin up arms. So if two of those
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: three at the top have must have It scores, you
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: just need your cheap pitcher to get enough right to
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: get somewhat close, and you need the Dodgers to outscore
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: all of these other teams that are significantly easier to
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: five man stack, because if any of these teams come
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: close match them, or even come within a run or
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: two at their salaries, you're not going to beat those
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: teams from a points per dollar upside standpoint. So there's
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: just a lot of things that have to go right
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: when you do five man stack a dat Dodgers team
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: on a slate like this, where the cheap end pitching
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: is just yeah, we talked about some of them, but
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: it's not great by any means, and they could get
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: dwarfed by twenty points from the top tier, top tier pitchers,
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: and then you're screwed for sure.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: Mets side again, that's the last spot, last game with
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: a slate. I have a little interest in I think
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I like them more. I like them more than Giants, Podres.
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: It's close between the Angels and them. The thing is
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: why I like think there's somewhat interesting. Dustin May will
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: be the fourth highest own pitcher on the slate, just
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: out of default, not because people like him that much.
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: He also gives it up to lefties, like you want
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: lefties against him for sure, more than right E's. He's
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: pretty tough against the right side of the plate. Lefty, lefty, lefty, lefty,
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: lefty lefty that projected lineup, but the Mets are expected
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: to throw out six lefties, some of them Juan Sotos,
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: Francisco Lindor's Baity's been fine for a cheap price tag.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Then like, yeah, one of the right's, Pete Alonzo has pop.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: They can really make Dustin May work in this one. Now,
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: I don't love picking on the Dodgers for their bullpen aspect,
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: but I think you could do worse on a six
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: game slate at single digit ownership. You can play plenty
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: of lefties. Again, they're price taking. Their price takes too
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: like the Dodgers. They're the pivot off the Dodgers, but
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: it's like a huge pivot. You're gonna get a fraction
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: of the ownership because you do have to spend for
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: him when you want to play, like people will go
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: Boston and play during endeavors when they're gonna spend up
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: that way, or yeah, if you play the Twins, they're
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: gonna play Buxton because they'll have the money to spend up,
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: et cetera. So yeah, I think the Mets are a
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: little interesting. Tigers, Twins, they're by far my favorites. After that,
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: it's tough like Dodgers the A's, But yeah, I think
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: I think if you're playing ten plus teams, getting overweight
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: to the Mets isn't hard. And I like the lefties.
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're one of the hottest teams in baseball too.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Right, they've won eight of their last ten games.
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: They always have upside obviously right stolen based upside to
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: right guys like Lindor Will will swipe all the time,
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: tons of power right.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Pete A.
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: Lonso has been one of the best hitters over the
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: last month and a half or so. So there's tons
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: of upside there. Kind of expensive for the guys you
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: want to play, for sure, there is some cheap bats.
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: Brett Bady has a lot of power from the left side.
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: Second base third base, which is the two weakest positions
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: in MLB dfs in today's landscape.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: So I definitely I agree with you on the Mats.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: They're sneaky.
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: I prefer the the A's game or the A side
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: in that game, and probably the Angels both ahead of
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: the Mets there.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: But I think they definitely have upside for sure.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: I just hate going against the Dodgers bullpen there, and
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: I think Dustin May, the way he's pitched as of late,
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: there's definitely some question marks there for sure.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: It's by no means safe. It's mainly just the ownership.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: You're getting some direct leverage against the fourth highest own pitcher.
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: Dustin May does rank oh pretty well in the stack
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: or in our pitcher rankings at number four though. Nate's
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: awesome stuff. And now we're talking some six games in
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: depth pitching and the bats. Any final thoughts you had
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: before we get on out of you?
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: No final thoughts. I think we broke down pretty good overall.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Have fun.
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: I mean, don't go in there and play like we
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: said right five Tigers and Joe Ryan and Flaherty unless
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: you want to hold hands with everyone else. If that's
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: the case, play double ups play fifty to fifties et cetera,
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: and just go in there and throw cash team in
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: there and hope to double your money. I mean, maybe
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: send title ahead to head and he might enjoy that there.
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: But no, it should be a fun slates. I think
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of ways to go. We talked about
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: a lot. I'm kind of going off the wall a
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: little bit. I'd like to take chances I play for
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: play for first, right, I know I'm gonna win. The
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: most likely outcome going in any slate is you're gonna lose, right,
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: So I'm playing when I win to win the most
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: amount of money possible.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of what.
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at here, and I like that even more
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: on a six game slate where you can leverage the
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: field so much more.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, And again, if you do want to find out
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: Naid's final thoughts, a couple of corps from Pitcher rankings,
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: stack rankings, all of us right up. Slate plan right there.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: You can find cash cores on there as well for
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: FanDuel and DraftKings, stack rankings, hitter rankings, picture rankings, projections,
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: ownership everything up. As always, of course, Sabers sim the
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: best optimizer out there. Shout outs to them. That's gonna
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: do it for us though. For Big Naids on titled Town,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: good luck on the six game or be safe, have
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: a good Monday night. Peace and.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: Mans mother no moss and made still mother My mothers
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: lost a leg still