Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / How Godzilla El Niño is unfolding across the world

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How Godzilla El Niño is unfolding across the world · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: El Niño is here and it is intensifying. The world
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: is waiting for what comes next. Its effects can be extreme,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: but they vary from place to place. That said, they
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  Speaker 1: will affect you wherever you are. So here's our map.
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  Speaker 1: We are going to take a look around the world,
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  Speaker 1: hearing from BBC reporters on the ground. And we are
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  Speaker 1: going to begin here in Kalimantan on the Indonesian part
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  Speaker 1: of the island of Borneo.
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  Speaker 2: Here in Indonesia, scientists say a super El Nino drought
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  Speaker 2: is fueling the worst fire season since 2015. Over 200
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  Speaker 2: hectares have burned across the country. In places like Kalimantan
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  Speaker 2: and Sumatra, skies have turned a glowing orange. Toxic haze
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  Speaker 2: has drifted across Southeast Asia, reaching Malaysia, Singapore and even
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  Speaker 2: the Philippines. For local residents, every breath carries the acrid
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  Speaker 2: taste of burned earth. The government has already recorded a
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  Speaker 2: spike in respiratory infections linked to these fires. Experts warn
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  Speaker 2: that underground peat fires are difficult to put out and
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  Speaker 2: can smolder for weeks. Fire suppression efforts have been ramped up,
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  Speaker 2: but these fires keep burning while big companies and individual
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  Speaker 2: farmers keep being blamed for carrying on burning to clear
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  Speaker 2: land for agriculture. Indonesia finds itself unable to do much
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  Speaker 2: else apart from waiting for the monsoon rains.
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  Speaker 1: It's not just weather, though. On the other side of
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  Speaker 1: the Pacific, El Niño is already squeezing one of the
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  Speaker 1: world's great trade arteries. The Panama Canal links the Atlantic
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  Speaker 1: with the Pacific. And what it means is ships don't
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: have to make this enormous journey around South America. but
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  Speaker 1: its locks are fed by rainwater. And this year's rainy
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  Speaker 1: season has been far drier than usual, thanks in part
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  Speaker 1: to El Niño, say scientists. As a result, the number
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  Speaker 1: of ships allowed to use the canal each day has
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  Speaker 1: been reduced by 10% and might be cut even further.
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  Speaker 1: Now that may not sound much, but with disruption in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East driving up demand for the route, prices
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  Speaker 1: have soared. So from about $ 100, 000 for a slot, to
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  Speaker 1: more than a million dollars. And the economic impacts don't
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  Speaker 1: stop at shipping. By bringing drought, floods and extreme heat
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  Speaker 1: to major farming regions, El Niño can hit harvests too.
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  Speaker 1: That can reduce supplies of crops such as rice, wheat
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  Speaker 1: and coffee. And in some years, It has pushed up
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  Speaker 1: food prices all around the world. So what is El
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  Speaker 1: Niño and how can it go from causing fires in
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  Speaker 1: Indonesia to disrupting traffic on the Panama Canal? It is
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  Speaker 1: one of the most important weather systems on the planet
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  Speaker 1: and it begins here. Our globe, pretty impressive, eh? Shows
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  Speaker 1: the pattern of heat in the tropical Pacific. In a
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  Speaker 1: normal year, the winds blow from South America towards Australia
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  Speaker 1: and Indonesia, blowing the surface water, warmed up by the sun,
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  Speaker 1: towards the west. Now in El Niño years, bursts of
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  Speaker 1: wind blow the other way, moving some of that warm
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  Speaker 1: water towards the east. Now as the central Pacific warms up,
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  Speaker 1: the winds weaken and it allows more heat to build up.
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  Speaker 1: So you get a kind of feedback loop. The warmer
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  Speaker 1: the water, the weaker the winds, the more heat builds
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  Speaker 1: up off the coast of South America. And we can
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  Speaker 1: see that more clearly if we take a different perspective.
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  Speaker 1: We need to look beneath the surface.
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  Speaker 2: Whoa.
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  Speaker 1: Now, ocean monitoring shows a huge wave of warm water
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  Speaker 1: building beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific. And this
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  Speaker 1: is warm even by El Niño standards. A strong El
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  Speaker 1: Niño would typically see surface temperatures rise by about two
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  Speaker 1: degrees Celsius. Scientists say this year's could deliver more than
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  Speaker 1: three degrees of additional warmth. And some of that heat
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  Speaker 1: and moisture with it is already radiating into the atmosphere,
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  Speaker 1: and scientists say there is a lot more to come. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: so we know how it works and some of what
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  Speaker 1: it can bring. Tropical countries tend to be most affected,
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  Speaker 1: but here's the thing, the effects vary from El Niño
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  Speaker 1: to El Niño, and different countries face different risks. South
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  Speaker 1: America is a very good example of that, so let's
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  Speaker 1: go to the Colombian capital, Bogotá.
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  Speaker 3: I'm walking into the mountains surrounding Bogota, the capital of Colombia.
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  Speaker 3: All of this nature is part of an ecosystem that
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  Speaker 3: is absolutely vital to the water supply of millions of people.
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  Speaker 3: But there are growing concerns about what El Niño could
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  Speaker 3: mean for this region. If some of the worst predictions
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  Speaker 3: come true, Colombia could face water shortages, drought, and a
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  Speaker 3: much higher risk of wildfires, with agriculture also taking a
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  Speaker 3: serious hit. And that's the thing about El Niño, that
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  Speaker 3: its impacts can look very different across South America. In Colombia, Chile, Bolivia,
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  Speaker 3: and parts of Peru, for example, the big concern is
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  Speaker 3: drought and water scarcity. But along the Pacific coast of
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  Speaker 3: Peru and Ecuador, El Niño can mean exactly the opposite
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  Speaker 3: with torrential rains, flooding and landslides. We have already seen
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  Speaker 3: some of that. Last month, heavy rain triggered serious landslides
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  Speaker 3: and road closures in Peru's Arequipa region. Peru has declared
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  Speaker 3: the state of emergency and other governments across the region
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  Speaker 3: are now scrambling to prepare because this could only be
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  Speaker 3: the beginning and the worst impacts can arrive towards the
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  Speaker 3: end of this year and into 2027.
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  Speaker 1: El Niño doesn't just affect weather and land. All the
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  Speaker 1: way across the Pacific in Australia, There are worries for
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  Speaker 1: sea life.
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  Speaker 4: With higher than usual ocean temperatures, it's the impact on
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  Speaker 4: marine life that's of most concern here in Australia, especially
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  Speaker 4: on the south coast. Australia's suffered from several marine heat
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  Speaker 4: waves in the past few years, causing coral bleaching and
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  Speaker 4: algal blooms, which are hugely damaging to the wildlife. It's
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  Speaker 4: early spring here in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology has
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  Speaker 4: said this has been the warmest start to spring since
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  Speaker 4: records began yesterday. In the mid-19th century, and that's expected
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  Speaker 4: to peak in the summer months, authorities are making sure
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  Speaker 4: that we're prepared for what's expected to be a very
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  Speaker 4: strong El Nino. So, for example, with the recent hot
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  Speaker 4: temperatures here in New South Wales, a total fire ban
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  Speaker 4: was introduced. They've also introduced an early warning system for
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  Speaker 4: marine crises, so offering finance to fisheries, relocating crucial species,
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  Speaker 4: as well as more monitoring of coral.
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  Speaker 1: So, so far, we've seen El Nino bring fires to Indonesia,
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  Speaker 1: disrupt trade in Panama, bring too much or too little
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  Speaker 1: water to South America, and, of course, disrupt sea life
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  Speaker 1: in Australia. But here in East Africa, the fear is
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  Speaker 1: it will bring an unusually severe wet season. We are
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  Speaker 1: going to Kenya.
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  Speaker 5: Here in Kenya, we're one of the six countries in
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  Speaker 5: the region where forecasters are expecting above-average rainfall later this year.
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  Speaker 5: Every year, we get short rain season between October and December,
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  Speaker 5: and when it's above average, areas like this get flooded often.
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  Speaker 5: But experts warn it could be one of the worst
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  Speaker 5: on record because of El Nino. Heavy rainfall raises the
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  Speaker 5: risk of flooding, especially in areas near rivers like this
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  Speaker 5: place where I am now. Other risks are landslides, and
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  Speaker 5: it could damage farmland and cause disruptions to the local
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  Speaker 5: food production. Back in 1997 and 1998, a devastating El
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  Speaker 5: Nino hit the region and flooding killed an estimated 2,000
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  Speaker 5: people in Somalia alone and displaced millions across the region.
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  Speaker 5: The effects of heavy rainfall are more severe to low-income populations.
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  Speaker 5: Here in Nairobi, it's the people living in places like
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  Speaker 5: this along rivers that are most at risk. The National
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  Speaker 5: Disaster Operations Center tells us that it's prepared for the
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  Speaker 5: worst and Nairobi City authorities say they have set up
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  Speaker 5: rescue centers and cleaned up drains and cleared settlements near
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  Speaker 5: riverbanks to mitigate the effects of flooding.
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  Speaker 1: But El Nino doesn't just affect the weather in the
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  Speaker 1: regions that we've visited. Its effects ripple out around the world. So,
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  Speaker 1: for example, in Northern Europe and the UK, thousands of
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  Speaker 1: miles away from the Pacific, it can bring a warmer,
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  Speaker 1: wetter autumn and start of winter and a colder end
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  Speaker 1: to the season. And then there's climate change. El Nino
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  Speaker 1: is a natural cycle and scientists have not established that
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  Speaker 1: climate change is making it stronger. But the extra pulse
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  Speaker 1: of heat it brings comes to a planet already made
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  Speaker 1: significantly warmer by all our greenhouse gas emissions. In fact,
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  Speaker 1: scientists are already warning that next year, 2027, is very
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  Speaker 1: likely to be the hottest ever recorded. El Nino is here.
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  Speaker 1: You've been warned.