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Ep 8: Loud music and quiet budgets · The Common Sense Revolution Podcast

• Gavin Megaw: own notes. World affairs are dominating the news at the moment, while budget speculation dominates political minds at home. Today we discuss the squeeze on the Liberal Democrats, Labour's war on parking cowboys, and what Kemi Bagnock should say about Russia, Trump and Brexit. Welcome to the Common Sense Revolution. I'm Gavin Mago and with me as ever are Patrick Kidd and Peter Franklin. A week from today, John Healy delivers his first budget. So we're going to start with what the Tories have done the week before it. Peter, they're ahead in the poll still of reform, but not ahead of Labour. that's still good news, isn't it? But what have they been doing to get ahead of the budget? Peter: Well, not an enormous amount. I think they're coasting a bit. There was a economic speech from Kim Kemi Badenock. It rather passed me by, I have to confess. I think it passed a lot of people by. Gavin Megaw: It seems to have passed everyone by. Yeah. Peter: Yes, exactly. Exactly. And I do think, and I have to declare my interest here as a speech writer, but I do think that. Kemi Badenock's speeches outside a party conference and outside of the Commons are very often quite underwhelming and I think she needs better speech writers. Gavin Megaw: Interesting. Okay. And Patrick, have you paid any attention to this? Or are you like the rest of Patrick: Ha! Gavin Megaw: the population? Patrick: Like the rest of the population, I've not, I wasn't doing the sketch this week for the Telegraph, or I am tomorrow, but wasn't doing Kimmy's speech, so I didn't watch it, but it is interesting that she is wanting to take the lead on this, because she will respond as is tradition. The leader of the opposition always responds to the budget. And some friends of mine who were very attuned to politics were wondering, shouldn't she be letting Andrew Griffith cut his teeth, get people to know him a bit better? think as she is the one who is going to have to be dismantling John Healy's budget, it's good that she is setting out the path. I just didn't really see the point of having this presentation yesterday and really all the eyes are just on next Wednesday and what's going to happen there. Gavin Megaw: Well I g I guess if we take a step back. What they're trying to do is to get ahead of it, aren't they? And trying to set the lines of attack for the day itself, the budget day itself. So she's talking about the need to cut spending and borrowing rather than to raise tax. So that's the clear line that's there. They'll talk about the borrowing being at three trillion, a record high. and that's what they'll be pushing between now and the budget to try and push Healy and Burnham into a difficult place. But I th what I think's actually more interesting is if If you go back to the opposition day debate the Tories held last week, which was on inheritance tax, It didn't seem to me that Labour were actually the target. It seemed to me that the Lib Dems were, and they were trying to trap the Lib Dems into a position where the Lib Dems did not back a scrapping of inheritance tax in Parliament in some way, so they could use that locally in the home counties. And it really struck me that it might be the start of a squeeze on the Lib Dems, because the Tories are pushing them on this side, and Labour are really pushing on the other side around Europe and social. occur and other things like that. Is that valid? Do you do you think that's a valid observation? Patrick: The Lib Dems have 72 MPs, there is territory there that both Labour and the Tories will feel that they need to. For Labour, if they're going to lose some of their Northern seats, perhaps to reform or maybe even to the Greens, they want to try and pick up some Lib Dems. The Tories have got to start winning back things like Guildford and Winchester and Maidenhead. So they are going to be winning them. It's an odd time of year. mean, the weather's got rubbish, it's cold. I'm not sure people are really thinking about political personalities right now. We just heard today that inflation is up to the highest it's been this year. I think people really don't want party politics, they just want competence and they want some ideas and ultimately they want to hear what Andy Burnham's ideas are and to judge whether they're any good and sort what the opposition says is sort of always going to be slightly reactive to that. Peter: It should be said that it's really hard to pin down the Lib Dems on anything. And they kind of skip for the most part the hard work of policy developments because I guess they reckon with some justification that no one's going to be much interested anyway. I can remember in the wake of the 2010 election where the Conservatives found themselves in government with the Lib Dems. I was asked by the MP I was working for at the time to take a look at the Lib Dem's localism policy. And I figured, well, they're bound to have quite a lot on that because they're the party of local government and community pavement politics and all of that. And when I went to look for it, there was almost nothing to be found. it's extraordinary the extent that they get away with this. very undailed politics. But perhaps, you know, different approaches need to be found to try and pin them down on different policies. And it would it would, I guess, help if there was some sort of iconic government policy that was very much seen as being targeted at Southern voters with sort of nice-ish commuter belt homes and was bad for them, on which the Lib Dems would be forced to say, do you agree with this or not? And would you agree to form a coalition government with Labour to implement this policy? Now that would begin to make the politics real. But as things stand, the politics is all rather unreal, especially when it comes to the Lib Dem. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. And the l e even on some of those policies which are seemingly targeting the south of England, the Lib Dems have been really clear that they will not back things like the mansion tax. I do find it interesting that the Tories have targeted them really with that debate in Parliament around inheritance tax. Even it seemed to be even more than Labour. They just kept referring to the Lib Dems. They weren't there. They didn't show up to vote. And I expect that will appear in a lot of literature going forward. But look, if we come back Peter: If you if you look at the polling averages long term, people talk about you know the sudden recovery in labour and the sudden collapse of the greens and all of these sort of big ticket items, but slightly under the radar is the long slow deli decline of the Lib Debs. I think at the beginning of the year they were averaging on something like 12, 13 percent, it's now gone down below 10%. It's sort of 9.9, something like that. And in our electoral system, that begins to matter. And they definitely do have seats at risk now. so the conservatives are absolutely right to target that. But I think they should try, you know, they should cycle through different methods of. Bashing away until something properly sticks. Patrick: I think the Lib Dems have their own worries as well of course. Ed Davey recently had a four hour meeting with his backbenchers and that made him sweat a bit and in PMQs today when Daisy Cooper got up there was sort of sarcastic shouts of she's behind you which I suspect she won't like either but once you're seen as the leader in waiting people are going to try and drive a wedge between them so they're feeling a bit wounded But there are times of the year when actually sometimes just doing nothing is the right option. And I think the week before the budget, think people don't need to hear from politicians the whole time. So I just didn't really see the point of Kim's speech this week. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, I guess guess back to that point. They're just trying to position themselves, aren't they? And trying to set up those battle lines. And it the battle lines appear to be family businesses and inheritance acts related to that, plus also spending and borrowing. so those will be the ones that the Conservative Party will be pushing. Patrick: Yeah, and welfare is going to be a massive battle. Peter: best news that conservative economic policy makers had this week was that basically their approach was endorsed by Andrew Haldane, who is ex Bank of England, a very independently minded economist, certainly respected, it doesn't mean he's always right. but definitely not consistently in the conservative corner. But he has now said, there are two different paths ahead of us. we can take Andy Burnham's path park path of continued expansion of the state, or we can start thinking about cutting spending and if at all possible, cutting taxes. And he says in current circumstances, that rightward path, as he calls it, is the right choice. that's there is amongst the economics profession, I think there's a bit of a a change of atmosphere right now. and that that was the best news, not this speech. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. I think we'll come back to France later, but a lot of the commentary around France has been about the similarities between the fiscal situations in both countries, but we will come back to that. I did I think it's worth just touching on P and Q's today. Peter, I know you watched it. a lot of the commentary is suggesting that it was a probably a win for Burnham, is that fair? Peter: I don't think so actually. I think it was more or less a tie. they both got their points in. I don't think it was hugely consequential either way. A good line though from Kemi Badenock, though. At one point she said, when in re in reply to Burnham, who was saying, Yeah, I'm making the decisions I've made, you know, I've set out, you know, sort of big big policy changes on on the on the national care service and things like that. And she pointed out very fairly actually you haven't done anything yet and that talking about things isn't the same as making decisions. And I think, you know, the longer we go on without an election, The more that's gonna hit home. And the lack of, we'll see what the budget brings. But at the moment, as far, you know, we haven't had much trailed in terms of big decisions. the biggest thing so far is probably, well, it's probably what they're not gonna do, like this big raid on capital gains tax, which apparently has been. next because of fears of of of the impact on business confidence. But you know, the longer that this holding position goes on, the more that this charge that, you know, Burnham, what are you here for? What are you actually doing? Why are you waiting for an election that hasn't come yet? that seems that that I think will become increasingly a po important. Not quite just yet, because as Baiderlock pointed out today, we're still in his honeymoon phase. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Patrick: I do have a slight problem with her tactics when the Prime Minister makes a decision that she's happy with. So here, with the allowing North Sea oil drilling, the Tories like it, but she was a bit too eager to make him squirm with his backbenchers, many of whom hate it. He's going to be under a lot of pressure from his backbenchers. They're slightly gleeful. I think she should always welcome it. When he does something right, it's much better to to give it the warm embrace and say, well done, you've done the right thing, rather than say, haven't you been a bit of a chump to do what your party hates? Because actually, you know, making the country a better place isn't a bad thing. I remember one of our former colleagues in central office, just to go back to olden days, Matthew Gullock, who is now a judge, when he was working through legislation for Anne Widicombe, when she was chatted at home secretary, and he said he thought his job was always to make legislation better, not to win political points, which I'm not sure many people in politics would agree with, but I actually really respected Matthew for that. He thought his job was to make the place, the world a better place. Peter: There was a point to Baedanox games on the Jackdoor announcements, which is that whilst Burnham has finally given the go-ahead to the Jackdaw field, that leaves the question about the much bigger Rosebank field. Now we're getting into the weeds of super nerdy energy policy here, I realise. But the the the Rosebank decision is quite important. and apparently the the energy secretary Mietta Farmbuller is and presumably her ally Ed Miliband is dead set against approving the Rosebank field. and personally I don't see any logic to approving Jackdaw and not approving Rosebank. That is that is sort of political management. It is absolutely not serious policy making. It's not what a serious Prime Minister should be doing. And so if Beta Nox's laying laying a trap there, I can see what she's trying to do. Gavin Megaw: Interesting. Well look, let's just conclude on the budget expectations for next week, then, can we? Because the commentary around it is that we're expecting a relatively and deliberately quiet budget from the Chancellor. So he's trying to get breathing space for households. Yes, there's not going to be any big tax raids. The hard choices that the Conservatives have been encouraging him to take will not be part of this budget. so it won't be a negative budget in that sense, so the markets might respond. Bond poorly. and the hard choices will be pushed to the 2027 spending review. So any big changes to the fiscal plans will be delayed until then. Now I and the hope I guess is that things like the Iran war dissipates and interest levels start to fall, and the inflation levels that we've seen also fall, and borrowing costs become lower. But it's a hell of a gamble, isn't it? And it all doesn't add up. To a Prime Minister who told us in his speech that he was going to take hard choices. And I think I think if I was on the Tory benches, I'd be pushing that extremely hard now. is are they really going to do what is needed for the country and what they told us they were going to do? But I guess we'll see in a week's time. What do you you both think? Patrick: Yes, I think although Andy Burnham's policy on rogue parking operators this week was a good one, think, they can certainly make the charge that he is fiddling with small-time mayoral things rather than making the hard choices and actually calling him a coward. It is, as Peter said, the all mouth and no delivery. If he isn't prepared to tackle the deficit, to maybe tackle welfare, which the Tories believe is the best way of getting spending under control, and at the same time isn't prepared to announce spending for defence when all the drums are suggesting we're heading towards World War Three. know, Wes Streeting recently was under a fair bit of pressure about that because, you know, if you're going to kick that into late 2027, who knows where the world will be then. I think there's a lot of fertile ground for the Tories to say that he is just, I hate the phrase dither and delay, that's got to be awful. the time but that is what he is doing he is just vacillating. Gavin Megaw: And you just mentioned the sort of populism that we're seeing from Burnham, Patrick. Peter, you're a big fan of the private parking code, are you? Peter: I'm very much in favour of what Labour's done on these small items this week. It's not just the sort of crackdown on you know, sort of private parking charges. It's also the one hundred pound fine for people that play out videos on trains and things like that or just put their put their phones on on speaker whilst taking calls. Really stupidly, reform in particular has tried to attack the government over this, saying, why are you why are you sort of fiddling, fiddling with these irrelevant items when when well Not when Rome is burning, but when Paris is burning. For some reason, they seem to think that Burnham is responsible for events in France. I think reform seems to have lost the common touch here. People actually hate these irritations, as minor as they might be in the greater scheme of things. They want someone. A to just restore a bit of order, a bit of decorum to the public sphere. And they want someone, they want a government that seems to be on their side, that just doesn't abandon them to the most sort of obnoxious and antisocial elements in society. the train companies, I think, have been incredibly bad at enforcing standards of behaviour. On their trains. and I think the great majority of commuters whose daily lives are made miserable by a few idiots will be applauding ministers for for taking action on this. And certainly anyone who's just got a hundred quid parking ticket in dubious circumstances will also be applauding the government. so yeah, Full marks on that. We'll see how the implementation and the actual enforcement goes. But yeah, government can do more than one thing at the same time, and if they can't even do the little things, then how can we trust them with the big things? Patrick: I really like the idea of dealing with everyday irritations. God, we all have plenty of those. Many of those have been imposed by Labour councils, for instance. So anyone who gets rid of 20 mile an hour zones will have my vote. But I do like some of the things he's saying, whether he should be saying it as Prime Minister or whether he should just actually, I suppose he is giving councils the power to do it, but it's like he's trying to claim it as his great success. I'm not sure that's needed. But there can be unintended consequences. And with the public transport, loud music, something I thoroughly support, my worry is how do you enforce it? I mean, at the moment, ticket inspectors are non-existent on trains and certainly station staff aren't stopping people just walking through barriers in London. You often see people just brazenly, as you see them shoplifting as well, and no one's stepping in. And I worry instead that what we will have is a proliferation of loud announcements on the trains telling us not to play our music loudly which will just irritate me even more. I already hate the see it say it sorted cacophony and if we are now going to have every two minutes an announcement don't play your music I'll just get really peed off with that instead. But how do we enforce it? Well you know, put them on a... a reward system as some parking wardens do. Tell them you can get a bonus if you collar a few more people, I'd all in favour of that. Gavin Megaw: Well, I think I think there's a more practical element to this, isn't there? It's probably not about actual enforcement. It's about creating a behavioural standard that you make clear that you want and you can get posters up in trains and other things and just to try and help make that point and then at least people can sort of self place it themselves. And I know there's dangers in that. I I find a political strategy of this really interesting because we talked in the first bit earlier about how Burnham was squeezing the lib dems on one side This is Burnham now going after traditional just standard normal Tories and even reform voters really who are the ones who are saying the world's gone mad, I can't get a dream these days, or like someone playing, whoever it is, you know, Kendrick Lamar lightly in my carriage, and it's it's getting in the way of my enjoying the telegraph or whatever on the way home at night, etc. And this seems to be a bit of Burnham saying, right, well, it's a smart play here, just to do these things. It helps my voters, yes, but also I can show others that I'm doing stuff that matters to them. Whilst it's all small moan stuff, it will matter. So I think we can dismiss it a bit easily because it will land on doorsteps. you know, it's probably harder to make the case on the big stuff. Peter: If if you remember, at the at the beginning of David Cameron's leadership of the party, he did this sort of stuff. He he made a point of criticising supermarkets for putting sweets at the at the checkouts to like capitalise on on the pester power of kids. And he spoke up in favour of the mothers and the fathers who are Patrick: It was the war on the Terry's chocolate orange. Peter: driven driven to distraction by this stuff. And people mocked him for it, but it was actually rarely popular. And Burnham's doing the same thing, and as a filler, before he actually has to make the big decisions, you know, it it's it's effective stuff. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. I d we can just imagine the focus groups though that led to this, can't we? So tell tell us the things which annoy you most. And it'll have been someone on the train, it'll be pe what do you see? It'll be people on electric bikes. will be in another focus next or scooters and things like that. That will come up without a doubt. It'll be potholes. There'll be a some sort of pothole thing going into place as well. And and I suspect ahead of any election campaign, we will see all of these coming quite quickly again. So you know, I think watch this space. These things are a signal, if from my perspective, to the sort of how Burnham is trying to you know, we talked last week about him maybe restricting himself to the left of and and centrists, but actually to me he's he's not discounting others in the votes he wants to win. And I think that's interesting. And also it's interesting how Kemi and the Conservative Party respond to these because they should be embracing it and saying, We will give you all our support to make sure these things happen. Peter: she actually made it had a little dig at Burnham today on the train phones being loud on trains points. I think that was a mistake. She should not have done that. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, she said the Prime Minister was worrying about live music on trains. This is not serious. when she was talking about the budget and debt and all and I completely get what she's trying to say. I just not sure that is the way to say it. It's my issue. Well Peter: That's right. Gavin Megaw: Well, let's get on to how we think Kemi should be saying it on some of the other big issues of our day. Because it's really difficult, isn't it, to be leader of the opposition at a time when you are facing really difficult fiscal headlines globally? You're facing what's happening in Paris and Discord there, and also what's happening in Ukraine and the president of the United States not exactly being helpful to the Ukrainian president or the people of Ukraine. so how do you find a way forward on this? So maybe Patrick, what you know, from your perspective, do you think she should be having a loud voice on these things or she should just be letting them go because she can't really impact them? Patrick: Well, she got into a bit of trouble recently by her team revealing what she had allegedly said to Giorgio Maloney in Italy and then the Italians protested and had to row back. I would love to hear someone on either side. to come out and say that Donald Trump is being a traitor. I think he is acting disgracefully over Ukraine. But again, this is a situation that requires more than just words. And really, the Tories should be urging Andy Burnham, while at the same time saying there's no money Andy needs to cover his spending, but urging him to contribute to the war effort in Ukraine, be properly arming them, to be giving them more than just thoughts and prayers. Because this is an existential issue facing a European ally and I think the behaviour of America is appalling. We can only hope that once the midterm elections are out of the way maybe he'll temper it a bit. But you know I really do worry about what's to come next. Peter: I think to go back to my, I totally agree with everything Patrick's just said, but to go back to my theme of giving speeches. we have, you know, on the foreign policy front, we have one of the most thoughtful, well-read foreign policy experts on the front bench, now as our shadow foreign secretary. that's Tom Tuggenhart. He's my he is my local MP, so I am biased here. But I'd really love to see our front bench people give really thoughtful speeches. They can't do anything, they're in opposition, they're potentially years, even decades away from power. But they have got a platform and I really want them to use it. And I hope that. Politics, opposition politics, isn't so totally dominated by social media and sort of minute-by-minute com strategies that we can't tell our frontbenchers would be you know, supposedly a government in waiting to take a step back, think deeply, and share thoughts with the nation. I in a way, not even government ministers can do that because they're so busy and they're so distracted by constant firefighting. But shadow ministers can do it. And, you know, we compare we've got our you know, we have to fight reform at the same time. We've got a huge advantage over reform in that we've got a complete front bench team. Reform still don't have a proper foreign Affairs spokesman or a proper defence spokesman. We do push them forward, get them before, you know, august bodies of academics and thought leaders and get them sort of winning the battle of ideas. I think just because you don't get the immediate sort of media hit and And the clickbait and all of that that people are constantly monitoring. It doesn't mean that that credibility doesn't filter down and cash out in terms of votes in the long term. So, you know, that would be my recommendation on these big existential issues. Rise to the occasion, don't sink to it. Patrick: I think that's a very good argument Peter and they have talent, especially on the shadow foreign and defence team. We've spoken before Peter: Yes, they do. Patrick: about Tom Toogan and James Cartledge, it's very good too. We have seen a little bit of trying to woo the sissy and making speeches, just aimed at looking competent. I spoke on a previous podcast about competence, porn, that people actually get quite turned on by people who are capable and I think you're right. I think if we just look like we are the grown-ups. This is after I've said we should give Donald Trump a bashing, but frankly that's what he does to us. He shows no desire to play the diplomatic niceties. I think in the nicest of ways we should say he is wrong. He is acting irresponsibly. He is trying to play to his base in difficult election and we believe that Russia can end this war in Ukraine any moment they want. But as soon as Ukraine decide to offer a peace branch, then they are destroyed. and I think making that argument eloquently and intelligently is a good thing. Gavin Megaw: Let's get into what's been happening in France, because that is very interesting to observe, very worrying as well. And I think probably British administration and security services will be very, very pleased that we're not in the summer anymore, because that is a time when such things can really run amok and and can spread away from one country into others. so they'll be pleased that we're not sitting in the summer with nice weather and lots of With out on the streets in that nice weather. but it does create some political issues because in less than a year Burnham could be shaking hands with Le Pen. and that anger that we're seeing in France is going to have an impact during this presidential election in France on both sides, isn't it, Peter? Peter: Absolutely. I've just been looking at the first polling to come through since the since the height of the violence so far, which was on Saturday. it shows that Le Pen is extending her lead in the first round voting. And as for the second round, Where it's the the top two candidates from the from the first round go through through to a head-to-head. It looks like that the person she'll be running against is Jean-Luc Melenchamp. Now he is a hard leftist, he's the guy who seems closest to the protesters, and some people accuse him of of encouraging some of the excesses that we've seen to describe them politely. And if that is the contest next May, then it's almost impossible to imagine Le Pen not winning. That or most certainly she'd win by about two to one. You know, it it will be a landslide for her, not just a victory. Gavin Megaw: Wow. Really? You really think that's going to be the case? Peter: well, it's there's still months to go, right? The race for second place is still pretty open. a more moderate candidate could well just about get their nose ahead and go through to the second rounds, in which case it would be a closer vote. But that polling that we've had you know, in the last day shows her. Extending her lead even over the more moderate candidates. So so far the race it really is hers to lose. And we could have a President Le Pen. And the question is: does I mean, I'm sure that she'd be on a plane to to Washington and she'd be shaking, she'll be shaking hands or embracing with Trump at Washington. one of the Washington Airports. but there's gonna be a really difficult dilemma for Vernon. Is he gonna be photographed shaking hands with a woman who large parts of her of his party regard as a fascist? I don't think she is a fascist by the way, but she is pure poison to most of of of of the British left. and and center and you know, what is Burnham gonna do about that? Gavin Megaw: Well, I I would also say what's Kemi going to do about this? 'Cause it's not just a problem for Burnham, it's a problem for the Conservatives as well. Because let's just go back to Farage and the Reform Party conference. And everyone's gone a bit quiet about this, but they signed disagreement, didn't they, with Le Pen's party in terms of small boats and stopping those boats coming across. Peter: That's right, yes. Gavin Megaw: yeah, so would that be possible for Burnham to put in place because then he would be cooperating with whatever Le Pen wants to do. Probably not. It's really difficult this because you know, I I I think we're all aligned on this. None of us would l want to really see Le Pen in par. but it's going to create headaches and it's going to be very, very good news for reform, I fear. Peter: Well, what I think in the event of a Le Pen victory, what Betenock and Tuganhart should do is get on a plane to Italy and work out a strategy with Georgia Maloney, who was also once seen as beyond the pale, by the way. I mean, she literally joined a party in her teens, which was the kind of post fascia, the post war fascists. Party, right? she's since moderated and she's in fact these days a great defender of Ukraine and a great Atlanticist. I'd like to see Badenog and Maloney jointly go to see President Le Pen and try and keep France firmly in the Western Alliance. That's I I I I would I'd really like to see that because I'm not sure if Burnham can reach out, but I think I think the Conservative Party could. Patrick: Well this is apparently what Priti Patel has been appointed to do, to make links with other right-wing parties around the world. But I agree that that would be a sensible thing to do. I think let's also judge her on what she does. As you said about Maloney, you can moderate as you get older. But when you say that we don't want to Le Pen in power, think given the choice between her and Melanthon, I think I would rather see National Rally in power than the communists. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, it's becoming extremely difficult Peter: Yeah, I mean Gavin Megaw: though, isn't it? The extremes are coming through pretty hard and fast. And the last time this was happening across Europe Patrick: and in Germany too. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, and the last time this was happening across Europe, things did not end well. Peter: They didn't, but it has to be said that even in Germany, the leading populists are nowhere near as extreme as the ideologies we saw between the wars. so that's a smidgen of comfort at least. so I mean don't don't give into despair just yet. Gavin Megaw: Really? Peter: but yes, it is an extraordinary period. but instead of getting sort of super paranoid and talking about, you know, setting up censorship bodies to control what they call misinformation, I think the people in the middle, the the liberal establishment, need to spend a lot more time. reflecting on their own failures. You know, what is it that they've done that has led us to the current state that we're in? Because they're the ones who have been in power. They run politics, they run the media, they run academia, they run, they run business. Why are we in the state that we are we're in? And why have they done so little to head off the current crisis? Populism exists for a reason. It is a warning sign that the establishment, the elites, have gone decadent and they really need to straighten out their own act before it's too late. Patrick: That is a very good point, Peter, and I was thinking of that this week when people were gleefully tweeting footage from the presidential debate in America in 2016 between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump when she said he will be a puppet of Putin. And they're going, aha, aha, she told you so. But what they don't have is the self-knowledge about, yes, she did, and people were not attracted by her. Hillary Clinton should really feel ashamed that she didn't beat Donald Trump and the Democrats should feel ashamed that they put up Kamala Harris. And this sounds like I'm getting at female candidates, I'm not. I just don't think either of those were particularly attractive candidates to middle America. And moderates need to wonder why they can't beat the populace because sometimes smugness only gets you so far. Peter: Yeah, and the Democrats also spent months pr pr pretending that President Biden wasn't in suffering from significant cognitive decline. when quite plainly he was, and it was cruelly exposed in one of the debates, and they're the ones lecturing on misinformation and disinformation. this is crazy. we seem to have come to a a state in which we're tolerating vastly higher levels of incompetence than we used to. and I'd love to see I'd love to see some proper soul searching on that issue. Gavin Megaw: Right. Well that's a very positive note to move on to whether Kemi Badenok and the Conservative Party are up or down this week. Patrick, let's start with you. what do you reckon? Has it been a good week for the Tories or a bad week? Patrick: Look, I know you don't like sitting on the fence, so I will try and... Gavin Megaw: No sitting on the fence, Patrick, come on. Patrick: I will try and fall to the 5248 division or something like that. I think the fact they are still ahead of reform, but only just, and this is in a week when reform have been exposed by the ITV documentary, certain members of their councillors acting very disgracefully. the fact that TOR is only one point ahead and haven't really made any headway. I think it's a bad week. I'm sorry to say that because I don't think it's been disastrous, but I just don't think they've really sort of done much this week. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Peter, what about you? Peter: well, I was gonna say moderately good, but having just listened to Patrick, I suddenly feel down on it. It is true that we find ourselves making progress, but not having yet tackled some of the real difficult issues facing the party. Most of all are recording governments and you know, in PMQs this week, Burnham was bringing up the trust mini budget and other things like that and other mistakes the over the last five years in power, and bad Betanox still does not have a way of addressing that, and I think that's a a major impediment to further progress. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, I think I think it's a down week. and I don't think it's 'cause of anything the Conservative Party have done, but I think the point is Burnham's vote share in the polls is not dropping. he's staying up there, which is interesting. and all the attacks on him in the last few weeks are not really holding water yet, but I think it's gonna be all about the budget. And the budget is key. And I think being down for a couple of weeks ahead of a budget is fine. because people aren't as Patrick said earlier paying attention, the weather's got bad and we're all a bit down about the world. so these things are the reality. But let's get on to recommendations then. Patrick, let's you can give us your RT Farty cultural one Patrick: Well, okay, it's not cultural this week actually, but here's a question for you. I saw history made last night with my boy. Do you know who are the oldest football club in London? And it's not your beloved Fulham by the way, Gavin. professional. Gavin Megaw: It is well, they're the oldest professional football club, aren't they? Or one in the professional leagues. I don't Patrick: Well no, is Cray Wanderers, Cray Wanderers who are sort of in the Alpington-Shizzlehurst area, date from 1860, so they've been going 166 years. They have never competed in the first round of the FA Cup in their history, until last night. And I was there with my nine-year-old boy watching them play Bedford Town, a Cray in level seven, Bedford level six, and Cray missed a penalty in extra time that would have won the game. went to a penalty shootout and they won on a penalty shootout and they are in for Gavin Megaw: brilliant. Patrick: the first time ever, first time ever at Flamingo Park last night they are into the FA Cup proper where they play Stockport County and so while I would slightly recommend that that game might be the one to watch in the first round I would just say generally because I'm much more rugby fan than football that non-league football is brilliant there's much better atmosphere there's much less faff on the field no falling around trying to con the referee and you can have a pint of beer while you're watching it because Andy Burnham doesn't have to act on non-league football. So go and support your local non-league side and enjoy it. Peter: my recommendation this week is actually quite cultural. It's also political. It's the German TV series Babylon Berlin. It's about Germany between the wars, the Weimar Republic, all of that, the rise of the Nazis. it's an utterly compelling drama. Yes, it is in German with subtitles, but the the visuals alone are incredible, gritty and sumptuous and dreamlike. And and if that sounds a bit surreal, a bit too art house, it's also a really good, compelling story. You feel for all of the characters. it it's superb and it's wonderful to see some drama that isn't confined by Anglo-American norms. so yeah, great stuff. it started in 2017. this year sees the conclusion. Of the whole thing, the multi-season drama. you can see it on now TV, possibly other streaming services. Totally recommended. Gavin Megaw: And my recommendation is Ari Emanuel's biography, which is called Roll the Calls, which is a rip-roaring, unfarnished, brilliant read. I've nearly finished it in a couple of days. It's just brilliant. He's the executive chairman of WME, he was the person who was meant to be the lead character in Entourage, at least it was a portrayal of him. And if you want to read a book where he does not hold back and what he b thinks about major stars in Hollywood, major business leaders across the States and the Globe, this is one to read. He really, really is interesting. Now I I would never have allowed him to say half the things he says if I've been working for him. but he I don't think listens or cares, which makes it hugely enjoyable. Well, that's it, folks. That's the common sense revolution for this week. I'm sorry if we depressed you. We hope to be happier next week following the budget with lots more politics to discuss. if you enjoyed today, please leave a review and please share with your friends, and we will hopefully. See you next week for the budget review. Bye all. Peter: Right. Patrick: Bye Gavin Megaw: I just did that again because it's easier then just to save us than