Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Chuck Ingram, fifty five KRFC the Talk Station. Hey twenty
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: eight here fifty five KRCD Talk Station. It's Tuesday. It's
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  Speaker 1: that time a week regular listeners, No, it's appointment listening
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  Speaker 1: time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired Lieutenant Colonel
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis joins the program every week, as he does
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  Speaker 1: throughout the week with his podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive
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  Speaker 1: talks about matters military, which he clearly has a whole
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  Speaker 1: lot of information about, as we learn every single week.
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  Speaker 1: Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's always a pleasure, sir. Good
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  Speaker 1: to see you did a lot.
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  Speaker 2: To be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.
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  Speaker 1: All right, let's start with Iran. This kind of reminded
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  Speaker 1: me of the red line of the Sand Barack Obama
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  Speaker 1: mentioned with regard to Syria It's use of chemical weapons.
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  Speaker 1: You know, blah blah blah, red line of the sand,
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  Speaker 1: do not cross it. And then the line gets crossed,
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  Speaker 1: and then you wait and wait and wait for something
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  Speaker 1: to happen, and nothing really happens. Donald Trump lately has
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  Speaker 1: been making a lot of very strong pronouncements with regard
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  Speaker 1: to the crackdown on protesters in Iran, most notably last week.
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  Speaker 1: He said on Friday, I made the statement very strongly
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  Speaker 1: to the they the Irani and start killing people like
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  Speaker 1: they have in the past, we will get involved, will
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  Speaker 1: be hitting them very hard where it hurts. Doesn't mean
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  Speaker 1: boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very hard,
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  Speaker 1: very hard, where it hurts. Similar pronounces have been made,
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  Speaker 1: but the crackdown continues now. Depending upon who you believe.
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  Speaker 1: Given the fog of war, somewhere between oh six hundred
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  Speaker 1: and two thousand protesters have been killed, lots and lots
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  Speaker 1: arrested a multiplier of that, but it continues. Internet's been
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  Speaker 1: shut down, which makes it a little more difficult for
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  Speaker 1: the protesters to organize themselves. But the Trump response now
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  Speaker 1: has been to levy a twenty five percent tariffyn countries
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  Speaker 1: doing business with Iran? Is that the step after these
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  Speaker 1: claims about military involvement and bombs being dropped and at least
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  Speaker 1: alluding to all of that, is this the response to
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  Speaker 1: the line being crossed? Because of course this killing continues.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, you know, I mean I.
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  Speaker 2: Want to back up just a bit and even look
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  Speaker 2: at why was that a red line ever drawn?
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  Speaker 1: Period?
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  Speaker 2: Why is it in the interest of America? Why is
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  Speaker 2: it a vital national literat that we should risk our troops,
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  Speaker 2: our planes and go and kill somebody in another country
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  Speaker 2: because there's some protests going on, or there's things happening
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  Speaker 2: in there we don't like, or that their protesters being killed.
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  Speaker 2: Even that's not there's no authorization or justification for that anyway.
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  Speaker 2: And so I don't know why we would let that
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  Speaker 2: be a deciding factor if it wasn't our national security
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  Speaker 2: or anything related to the interest of America. So that's
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  Speaker 2: the first question, which has not been answered at all
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  Speaker 2: so far, right, And then the second one is if
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  Speaker 2: you're gonna make a threat and then all of a
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  Speaker 2: sudden there's a basically a truth social post it's twenty
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  Speaker 2: five percent. That's I mean, there's there's literally thousands of
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  Speaker 2: sanctions already on Iran. This is not no one's even
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  Speaker 2: gonna notice this one. It's not gonna have any real
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  Speaker 2: impact on anything. So I don't really understand. Now, I'll
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  Speaker 2: tell you what I'm concerned about. What I fear is
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  Speaker 2: that we just don't have all the assets in place
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  Speaker 2: right now. And that's the only reason you haven't seen
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  Speaker 2: any strikes because we don't have that much combat power
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  Speaker 2: up there. You may recall that just a few days
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  Speaker 2: before this, we did have a big strike in Syria,
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  Speaker 2: so that's obviously in the same region, and we do
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  Speaker 2: have some package. I was curious that we used apparently
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  Speaker 2: a large strike package against alleged ISIS targets in Syria
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  Speaker 2: when we're already talking about maybe doing something in Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and you don't see this big build up of power
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  Speaker 2: like you did, say before the war in twenty or
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  Speaker 2: the options in twenty twenty four when we helped Israel
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  Speaker 2: against Iran, or in the so called Twelve Day war
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  Speaker 2: in June of last year. So I'm not sure what
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  Speaker 2: we can do other than firing some demonstrative missile strikes
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  Speaker 2: here and there. It's not going to be really painful,
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  Speaker 2: and who knows whether they're going to have any impact.
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  Speaker 2: So this is this is a big puzzle to me.
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  Speaker 1: It is, and I suppose to the former comments, you're
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  Speaker 1: channeling a friend of the show, Senator Ran Paul, who
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  Speaker 1: expresses the same concerns about congressional involvement, declarations of war,
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  Speaker 1: and the larger question, Wait a second, are you going
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  Speaker 1: to be doing this everywhere freedom and democracy or whatever
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  Speaker 1: is in jeopardy or anywhere in the world, whether people
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  Speaker 1: being having the rights violated, And the answer is that
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  Speaker 1: that would be literally impossible. So we're picking and choosing.
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  Speaker 1: But also I read an article, and maybe this is
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  Speaker 1: to your point about whether we are ready to engage
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  Speaker 1: in some sort of military operation in Iran. I've heard
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  Speaker 1: that the military, the folks within the military, the generals,
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  Speaker 1: the admirals with whom I guess Donald Trump consults, say
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  Speaker 1: they are not ready to do engage to engage in
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  Speaker 1: this that bombing Iran may suggest a much longer, more
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  Speaker 1: protracted military involvement than we are ready to bite off
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  Speaker 1: at this point. I guess we got our hands full
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  Speaker 1: over in Venezuela with a lot of military resources there.
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  Speaker 1: We certainly have not had the problem when the South
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  Speaker 1: China seed disappear or go anywhere. So we're kind of
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  Speaker 1: spread far and wide. Is that really maybe part of
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  Speaker 1: the problem, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's part of many problems. I'll tell you that
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  Speaker 2: the fact that we are spread literally to the four
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  Speaker 2: wins in the Seven Seas, and we are four structure
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  Speaker 2: is not really that big. And so if you get
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  Speaker 2: called into engagement anywhere it's gonna come close to tapping
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  Speaker 2: you out. And we saw we had fifteen percent of
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  Speaker 2: the Navy and all kinds of other power marines, air Force,
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  Speaker 2: Navy all down there in the Venezulin area. Well a
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  Speaker 2: lot of that, most of it is, I understand, is
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  Speaker 2: still there. So you haven't redeployed that anywhere. It takes
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  Speaker 2: a long time to ship things back over into the
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  Speaker 2: Middle East, etc.
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  Speaker 1: I think you'd need.
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  Speaker 2: Probably a couple of aircraft carriers if you're going to
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  Speaker 2: do anything meaningful to Iran, and I haven't even heard
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  Speaker 2: of the potential deployments of any of that yet. Thankfully,
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  Speaker 2: I'm glad because the last thing we need to do
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  Speaker 2: is to go back and start another war with Iran,
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  Speaker 2: because Iran has said that this time that the gloves
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  Speaker 2: would come off if you attack us again. We're going
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  Speaker 2: to hit your bases throughout the Middle East. And I
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  Speaker 2: can just tell you from personal experience of being there,
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  Speaker 2: many of these far flung bases that we have throughout
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East have literally no air defense coverage on
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  Speaker 2: a strateg or on a theater level operation, and those
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  Speaker 2: missiles from Iran could just rain down and there's nothing
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  Speaker 2: we could do to stop them. They could cause enormous damage,
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  Speaker 2: and we need to be really, really careful that we
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  Speaker 2: don't get into this habit that we can bomb anyone
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  Speaker 2: would want, like Venezuela and nothing will happen. Ever, because
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  Speaker 2: one of these days we're going to bout off more
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  Speaker 2: than we can chew, and all of a sudden, there
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  Speaker 2: could be Americans throughout the Middle East or killed for
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  Speaker 2: no reason at all. So this is something we really
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  Speaker 2: don't need.
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  Speaker 1: To do, so, I would think given the seemingly precarious
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  Speaker 1: nature of the Iranian administration, given the protests, a lot
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  Speaker 1: of people speculating that maybe the regime will be overthrown.
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  Speaker 1: It remains to be seen. But desperate situations result in
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  Speaker 1: desperate acts. So, Daniel Davis, in your military experience, do
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  Speaker 1: you think Iran will make good and launch attacks on
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  Speaker 1: our various military resources in the Middle East, which suggests
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  Speaker 1: also that Israel might get attacked. They've done it before.
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  Speaker 1: That means Israel would get involved in whatever retaliation if
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  Speaker 1: they launch one.
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  Speaker 2: That is the threat that it would be the US
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  Speaker 2: and Israel, they said, and so they would have hit both.
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  Speaker 2: And I think that the intent is to say, hey, look,
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  Speaker 2: you saw what happened during the Twelve Day War. Your
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  Speaker 2: air defenses in Israel couldn't even protect you, and it
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  Speaker 2: won't protect you this time either, because we have rebuilt
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  Speaker 2: a lot of the capacity that we lost there, and
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  Speaker 2: they've continued to make a lot of these better era
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  Speaker 2: ballistic missiles that were so successful last time. And listen,
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  Speaker 2: a lot of these protests, too many people in the
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  Speaker 2: West are saying, oh, this is just all indigenous stuff,
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  Speaker 2: It's just natural. It's not there has been long time
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  Speaker 2: simmering things. There are domestic issues, but there is no
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  Speaker 2: question that a lot of this has been fomented from
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  Speaker 2: the outside. Mike Pompeo openly admitted on his ex account
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  Speaker 2: that Mossad is in the is already on the ground there.
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  Speaker 2: There has been many other credible reports that both six
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  Speaker 2: and CIA has been fomenting things on the ground to
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  Speaker 2: try to make it worse than it was, and a
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  Speaker 2: lot of people in Iran are understanding recognized that The
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  Speaker 2: reason why that is so important to understand is when
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  Speaker 2: you're talking about there is the legitimate possibility for large
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  Speaker 2: scale upheavals that could overturn the regime.
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  Speaker 1: If you make them.
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  Speaker 2: The regime recognized that they their very existence could be
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  Speaker 2: a threat if they do nothing. Now they have no
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  Speaker 2: motivation to restrain themselves if you now add on top
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  Speaker 2: of that missile. So we don't want to put them
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  Speaker 2: into back them into a corner to where it's like
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  Speaker 2: use it or lose it, because they may use it.
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  Speaker 2: I'm just telling you our defenses will not stop most
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  Speaker 2: of these things, and we will suffer casualties if we put.
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  Speaker 1: Them in a no win situation. Well, you know, interesting
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  Speaker 1: the global outside influence pot stirring that's made that's led
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  Speaker 1: to some of these protests, we might want to look
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  Speaker 1: a little bit inwardly about that same concept happening here
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  Speaker 1: in the United States of America, because we have a
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  Speaker 1: lot of protesters here who many analysts and researchers have
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  Speaker 1: suggested are being stirred by outside nefarious forces who just
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  Speaker 1: simply don't like the United States.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, what's good for the goose is good
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  Speaker 2: for the gander kind of thing, and we don't like that.
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  Speaker 2: We don't talk about how bad it is, and we
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  Speaker 2: try to expose whenever that does happen, and we've been
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  Speaker 2: doing it for decades. I mean, oh yeah, a long time,
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  Speaker 2: and you know, and sometimes those chickens can come home
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  Speaker 2: to roost. And this is part of the reason why
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  Speaker 2: I'm adamantly against that. I actually believe in self determination
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  Speaker 2: of people in Iran want to change their former government.
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  Speaker 1: That is their right prerogative.
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  Speaker 2: They take all the risks and the potential rewards for
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  Speaker 2: whatever they do on their own. We don't need to
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  Speaker 2: stir the thing up or do anything because our national
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  Speaker 2: security is not at risk no matter who runs Iran.
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  Speaker 2: They are a weak country militarily and they don't threaten
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  Speaker 2: us at all, so we don't need to use any force.
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  Speaker 1: Whatever they do is.
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  Speaker 2: On their own. But when we do that, Brian, it
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  Speaker 2: then invites it to come back home. And I fear
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  Speaker 2: that we may find that to urcha grin one day.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting quote a silver parallel that I'm gonna
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  Speaker 1: quickly draw here the anti Iranian sentiment, and I agree
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  Speaker 1: with your principles about we don't need to be going
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  Speaker 1: around telling anybody else how to live their lives. Period
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  Speaker 1: and point taken the ant Iranian propagandas built into the equation.
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  Speaker 1: We remember the overthrow of the shot, We remember the
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  Speaker 1: taking of the hostages. We remember Iran threatening to blow
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  Speaker 1: everybody up with the nuclear weapon. We think it's a
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  Speaker 1: dangerous thing to get a nuclear weapon, on and on.
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  Speaker 1: This has been going on for decades, so there's this
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  Speaker 1: general animosity toward Iran which makes something like this military
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  Speaker 1: strike seem more palatable. Like, yeah, this sounds analogous to
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  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin. Yeah, he was affiliated with the Soviet Union.
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  Speaker 1: A lot of people my age, you know, I'm sixty,
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  Speaker 1: I remember the Cold War. I hated the Soviet Union
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  Speaker 1: as much as the next guy. So sort of that
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  Speaker 1: animosity is baked into the cake, which is I think
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  Speaker 1: a lot of the reason why people are so against
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  Speaker 1: the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Again, to the security interests
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  Speaker 1: of the United States, Ukraine doesn't really pose any this
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  Speaker 1: war is ongoing. I see that Russia recently bombed to
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  Speaker 1: the Ukrainian city which with reportedly one of those hypersonic missiles.
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  Speaker 1: Is that accurate, because seems to me that Russia still
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: keeps moving forward and capture more Land. Daniel, Yes, it
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  Speaker 1: is absolutely accurate. I was reading some of those reports.
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  Speaker 1: Is very warning.
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  Speaker 2: A lot of viscandors and other hypersonic missiles and then
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  Speaker 2: another wave of the guaranty drones, the theater level drones
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  Speaker 2: that have been going across most of them, well not
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  Speaker 2: most of them, but a large number of them, a
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  Speaker 2: large percentage to get through every time. And it is
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  Speaker 2: just continuing to just destroy the ability of Ukraine to
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  Speaker 2: have any energy electricity, either to do business or to
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: have military industrial capacity.
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  Speaker 1: It's all just devastating that. And now then they're.
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  Speaker 2: The mayor of Kiev is literally telling people to leave
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  Speaker 2: the city because they don't have enough power to keep
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  Speaker 2: people from freezing to death.
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  Speaker 1: That tells you a lot right there, It really does.
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  Speaker 1: I want to say war of attrition, but it's one
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  Speaker 1: that the Russians seem to be winning, right. Just real
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  Speaker 1: quick quick question before we part, Cody Daniel Davis, did
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  Speaker 1: you ever when this first started, this conflict with Russian
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  Speaker 1: invading Ukraine, do you ever anticipate that it would take
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  Speaker 1: this long that this war would still be going on
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  Speaker 1: without some clear victory. I would imagine my guess early
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  Speaker 1: on would have been the rush would have rolled right
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: over Ukraine apps in some mace, massive outside force boots
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  Speaker 1: on the ground from the European Union or NATO or whatever.
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  Speaker 1: But they keep moving forward and it's been going on
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  Speaker 1: for a long time.
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  Speaker 2: Well, the problem with the Russians is that, and with
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  Speaker 2: that scenario is that they did not intend to do that.
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  Speaker 2: They did not intend to roll over and take over
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  Speaker 2: the country because they knew that. I mean, they'd been
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  Speaker 2: watching a year civil war going on before then, they'd
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  Speaker 2: been watching NATO build up the Ukraine military, so they
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  Speaker 2: knew that they were capable and fairly large, and so
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  Speaker 2: they went in with a relatively small force.
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  Speaker 1: It was a demonstration force.
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  Speaker 2: This canard that Russia thought they were going to win
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  Speaker 2: in three days was nonsense. They never said that. They
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  Speaker 2: never intended that. They didn't have the force to it.
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  Speaker 2: They intended to compel a negotiated settlement, which they nearly
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: got in Istambul two months into the war. But then
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: when they didn't get that, they didn't have a plan
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: be resourced, and that's when they said, oh crap. And
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: so it took them a year and a half to
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: get back up to the point to where they're at now,
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  Speaker 2: where they can fight and win a war of attrition.
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  Speaker 1: That's where are at now. And so.
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  Speaker 2: That no, to answer your question, I didn't expect this Russia.
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  Speaker 2: Didn't expect this. I did not expect that this would
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  Speaker 2: go on this long. I thought we'd have a negotiated
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  Speaker 2: settlement a long time ago, because that was in the
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: best interests of Europe, Ukraine, and the United States. Unfortunately,
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  Speaker 2: that's not what we did, and now then we have
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  Speaker 2: a much stronger Russia our on the NATO Eastern Flank
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: than we had before, and we're gonna have to deal
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: with that for a long time to come.
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  Speaker 1: Every Tuesday, beginning at a thirty, the Daniel Davis Deep
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Dive with our guest and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Find him where you find your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: It'll be on my blog page fifty five Casey dot com. Sir,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: you have a great week. We'll do this again next Tuesday.
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  Speaker 1: Look forward to it, Brian, see you then, take care, sir.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Eight forty two Dusty