Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Verizon and 100pct Connectivity - A Paradigm Shift
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:10We just basically turn your phone and be seamless,
- 0:14regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:16know that it's connected by satellite.
- 0:21Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
- 0:27Good morning everybody. What a crazy few weeks.
- 0:33If you can hear me, please give me a thumbs up.
- 0:37I'll wait to start. Or can someone send me a message
- 0:40and let me know that they can hear me?
- 0:45Anyone OK? I see a thumbs up.
- 0:48Yeah. What an exciting morning.
- 0:51This is something that was expected that was supposedly
- 0:56priced into the market, and now we have it.
- 0:59And this is on top of just a massive kind of beside of
- 1:07himself because what a long journey.
- 1:09Five years, five years is suffering.
- 1:13And now we're seeing all the hard work, due diligence,
- 1:17stress, sleepless nights, you know, everything just coming
- 1:21together. And you know, as I talk about
- 1:25how the puzzle pieces are clicking in, they truly are
- 1:28clicking in. And so, yeah, this morning the
- 1:32big piece of news, AFC Swiss Mobile signed their definitive
- 1:36commercial agreement with Verizon.
- 1:38For the folks who maybe perhaps are new to the story, last year
- 1:42in the end of May 2024, the company did enter into a, you
- 1:48know, a memorandum of understanding in addition to
- 1:51with with Verizon, in addition to getting a strategic
- 1:56investment, which was $65 million convert and then $35
- 2:01million of commercial pre payments, which by the way, with
- 2:05this definitive agreement, I think those some portion of
- 2:08those commercial payments actually get released, if not
- 2:12the whole thing. But but yeah, so when that
- 2:16announcement happened last year, that's what caused the stock to
- 2:18re rate, but it was a bit open-ended, meaning that while
- 2:21we did get an investment and of course right on which was crazy.
- 2:26Yeah, they, they decided to work handed hand with AT&T to support
- 2:31AC Space Mobile. They both contributed their 850
- 2:34megahertz spectrum, which as we all know terrestrial spectrum
- 2:37is, is highly valuable and it's their scarce asset.
- 2:41It's the lifeblood of the carriers.
- 2:43Contributing that and in a partnership to your biggest
- 2:47rival is not a trivial thing, but but yeah, that happened last
- 2:52year. And so AC for intensive purposes
- 2:55locked up 60, you know, 2 thirds, 66 percent, 70% of the
- 3:00the most popular wireless market in the world by now having AT&T,
- 3:05which signed a current commercial defender agreement
- 3:08and then of course Verizon, which now formalizes that
- 3:11agreement. And I think it's important to
- 3:14under score what this means and which I'll talk about in a
- 3:19little bit. But he's to say, given the stock
- 3:22price reaction today, clearly, you know, to to the extent there
- 3:27was expectation that this was coming, but it was not priced
- 3:30in. And I'll explain why what that
- 3:33means. You know how this been
- 3:35announced, call it at in fall of last year.
- 3:39It would mean something very different to what it means now.
- 3:42And that's why it truly wasn't priced in.
- 3:44But someone in in a chat that I'm in came up with this this
- 3:49term, which I think was good. Is that the not the invisible
- 3:53hand, but the pimp hand of the market just slapped all of our
- 3:57collective faces this morning. And that includes long
- 4:00investors. It includes short sellers.
- 4:03It includes all the fudsters, dim spacebar and his his ilk,
- 4:09all the legacy guys. I remember and and somebody who
- 4:13runs the website. You know that that covers what
- 4:17how all the terrible takes of Tim Tim Farrar.
- 4:20But whoever runs that website that that that preserves his
- 4:26tweet for tweets for posterity. What was it?
- 4:29I guess it was like a few weeks ago he was claiming that it's
- 4:31like it was likely that Verizon was going to leave AST space
- 4:34monger, go to Starlink. What a fucking tool.
- 4:37What an idiot. That guy.
- 4:41He's basically paid by legacy. The legacy satellite guys, also
- 4:45global star, I mean, you name it.
- 4:47And so he'll come up because he's paid.
- 4:49He'll come up with every reason under the sun to create a point
- 4:54of view, which of course ends up, you know, on the one hand
- 4:57is, is to create FUD and and to speak negatively about AC space
- 5:00mobile. But then, you know, I guess
- 5:02he's, he's kind of like a street Walker.
- 5:04Like he sells, he sells his services and then he doesn't
- 5:06mind being completely wrong. So it'll be interesting to see,
- 5:10not that I care, but it'll be interesting to see, you know,
- 5:13what he, how he tries to spin this today because, yeah, this
- 5:17is, there is no spin. Like there's a definite
- 5:20commercial agreement with with ASD Space Mobile.
- 5:23But yeah, I'm going to go through a few things here.
- 5:26First, I, I think, you know, kudos to Scott Wisniewski, the
- 5:32president and chief strategy officer, ASD Space Mobile.
- 5:36He's just been executing master strokes in terms of strategy.
- 5:42And so it was what, 2 weeks ago? I mean, he was giving everybody
- 5:47fair warning, whether you were long or short that this was
- 5:50coming. And, you know, to be fair, like
- 5:52he had hinted Verizon was coming a number, you know, that it was
- 5:56close, but obviously it took longer than expected.
- 5:59But you know, his his little conviction and talking about how
- 6:04there were two or a handful of agreements that were coming
- 6:07soon. Yeah, you get people fair
- 6:10warning and and a lot of us in the space mob had put together
- 6:12that Verizon was coming. That's why I had like tweeted
- 6:15all these hints like, you know, Verizon soon and and then of
- 6:19course, you know, we, we got the news that Bell Canada announces
- 6:24Castle testing. And by the way, like I'll
- 6:27reiterate the fact that Bell Canada announced successful
- 6:31testing results from the summer for them to do it now means
- 6:34like, you know, I would assume that Bell Canada is going to
- 6:38announce a definitive commercial agreement with ASD space, but
- 6:40we'll probably within the next few weeks.
- 6:43So that's another thing to accord to we we talked about
- 6:45like Catalyst season being upon us.
- 6:47It truly is. I mean, we've got FM one, FM 2
- 6:50launching in the next two to three months in the multi launch
- 6:54campaign going off as well. I think, you know, if we're
- 6:58fingers crossed we'll have 33 launches before the end of the
- 7:01year. As I mentioned before, we just
- 7:04had successful testing with Bell Canada.
- 7:07And by the way, like Bell Canada, you know, there are
- 7:10strategic investor they were there early.
- 7:12And so again, I I expect that defended commercial agreement to
- 7:16drop anytime now. And the other thing of course we
- 7:19saw and I joked about it. The Prime Minister of Canada was
- 7:22here with Trump and they were meeting Trump made some comments
- 7:26about Golden Dome about how it's going to cover Canada.
- 7:29Guess who covers Canada as well ASD space mobile.
- 7:33Guess who has, and this is really important.
- 7:36Guess who has Legato Alden spectrum that covers Canada ASD
- 7:40space mobile. Guess who doesn't have satellite
- 7:43spectrum covering Canada for truly 100% coverage?
- 7:46Starlog Starlink only bought Echostars spectrum here in the
- 7:52US. They're going to have to pursue
- 7:54spectrum rights in Canada, but we happen to have it already.
- 7:57So if if Trump is pushing golden Dome coverage over Canada,
- 8:02there's one specific player that can provide that coverage.
- 8:06And as we all know, we all have a very high level conviction
- 8:08that the company and including Scott, who's been more vocal
- 8:13about it, I think the company is going to get Golden Dome.
- 8:18What does that happen? You know, it's up for debate,
- 8:21but like I I've kind of changed the how I express these events
- 8:26on these these spaces is that I think we should all kind of in
- 8:31your collective minds as you kind of go through the
- 8:33day-to-day machinations of the market and and re rethink, you
- 8:37know re underwrite your investment ASTC mobile.
- 8:40I think the the keyword to think about is inevitability, right,
- 8:44Because I think these things, whether it's the bug Canada
- 8:48defender agreement, whether it's defense use cases, what what
- 8:53100% connectivity means this is this stuff is all inevitable.
- 8:57Like AST, yeah, there's going to be because it's space, there's
- 9:01going to be delays. It's going to take longer than
- 9:03you expect. The company, the engineering
- 9:06mindset is to get things right the first time and every time.
- 9:10So they're not going to they're not going to ship the satellite
- 9:12and put it out into space without absolutely without
- 9:14making absolutely sure that they've accounted for any
- 9:17possible scenario and that you know you've got forward and see
- 9:21that you know the the satellite has every chance to succeed,
- 9:25right. And so when you're under that
- 9:27engineering mindset, sometimes things take longer than
- 9:29expected. But given the type of service
- 9:32we're about to deploy and how critical it will be for all
- 9:36these other industries, which I'm going to talk about, and
- 9:39that's what got me and Kook last night totally hopped up, which
- 9:43is why I tweeted, you know, it past midnight that our
- 9:47discussion basically, yeah, informed me that we're not
- 9:51bullish enough. I truly believe that.
- 9:54So anyway, yeah, this, as I mentioned before, there there
- 10:01was this narrative out there from short sellers, skeptics,
- 10:05you know, in industry consultants or clueless that,
- 10:10you know, Verizon was somehow going to use that switch.
- 10:13And I, you know, in, in all honesty like that, that was a
- 10:16true potential risk because there was no definitive
- 10:20commercial agreement that was signed just yet.
- 10:22And obviously Verizon was already half pregnant.
- 10:25They'd already contributed their spectrum.
- 10:28They've already gone through the SEC review process with us and
- 10:30continue to be very supportive. They also made overall $100
- 10:35million investment, part of that commercial prepayments part of
- 10:38it in the credible debt, which then became equity.
- 10:40Now they're a shareholder. But you know, never say never.
- 10:43Like there's always a risk. You know, if you in any
- 10:48transaction, it's not done until it's done.
- 10:50And anybody who's worked on M and A transactions knows that at
- 10:55the 11th hour they can fall apart.
- 10:58And sometimes that happens for a reason, right?
- 11:00Like people, people want to get better economics or there's
- 11:06there's personality issues or any number of things or maybe
- 11:08competitor comes in and and tops your bid.
- 11:10And so, but you know, they got it over the finish line.
- 11:14That's great. And so I think it'll be
- 11:17interesting to see, you know, how the press and media and
- 11:20everybody reacts to this because the, you know, Echostar Starlink
- 11:27start and by the way, like it is totally like 100% a great
- 11:34signal. And I think space mob gets this
- 11:36right whenever Starlink starts putting out PR about like, Oh my
- 11:41God, we did the first video call, which was, by the way,
- 11:43absolute bullshit. They, they never did the first
- 11:45video call. And, and when they did that
- 11:47call, they had two engineers standing next to each other,
- 11:50next to their building, their office.
- 11:52And I, I, I forget where it was, maybe it was in Washington or
- 11:55something. That's not a true test.
- 11:57Like that's within Wi-Fi coverage.
- 11:59Those two engineers are sitting next to each other.
- 12:01They could be actually being they, they could literally be
- 12:04routed through the same exact satellite.
- 12:06And that doesn't really demonstrate anything like
- 12:09anybody can do that link actually does that.
- 12:10They they, they do a video call between 2:00 between the exact
- 12:15same satellite. Satellite connects to both
- 12:17phones. The true task is like if you are
- 12:20in a remote area that has no coverage and you do a video call
- 12:24to a satellite, which then beams it down to the operators network
- 12:29and then connects that to someone further away, you know,
- 12:32much further away. So, but anyway, my point there
- 12:35is that, well, first that test that Starlink touted is absolute
- 12:39bullshit. But then they're putting that
- 12:41aside whenever Starlink, which over the last, gosh, I don't
- 12:46know, two weeks, they have just been pounding PR, going to the
- 12:50press and like tweeting stuff like, oh, we're doing all these
- 12:53things and we're going to release these like dumb down
- 12:55apps that can deliver services, you know, basically with
- 12:59hundreds of kilobytes of data throughput, which is great.
- 13:03And and that's a great service by the way.
- 13:05Like in the in the absence of no service at all, people will, I
- 13:09mean, even if it's 100 kilobytes a second or half a half a MB
- 13:14megabit per second, like that's a good service.
- 13:17And even for me, like if I'm using my Bloomberg on my phone,
- 13:21I just need to see prices moving and do so.
- 13:25So that's a good service, but it's not broadband and that's
- 13:27what we're doing. But my point is that when
- 13:30Verizon starts beating or sorry, when Starling starts beating the
- 13:34drum and starts putting PR, it's almost as like as if, you know,
- 13:39the sun rises, It's it's it's in anticipation and you know that
- 13:43ACCS mobile has something coming.
- 13:46The reason why I say that is, you know, the industry is pretty
- 13:49small and I'm sure you know, AC, for example, one way that
- 13:53Starling can get a, a beat on what's happening is that
- 13:57obviously SpaceX launches our satellite.
- 13:59So they know, they probably know, you know, when launches
- 14:02are happening, they probably hear from different competitors.
- 14:05I'm sure Starling was talking to Verizon too.
- 14:06Like over the last several months, they were begging like,
- 14:10hey, sign an agreement with us, do a deal with us.
- 14:14And maybe that's why it took some time with AST, right?
- 14:17Like maybe the definitive personal create took time
- 14:20because Verizon's like, oh, you know what, let's see what
- 14:21Sterling could do. Well, guess what?
- 14:23They signed it with us. They re underwrote the, the
- 14:25transaction, the relationship. And so, and This is why
- 14:31everything isn't priced in. And So what does that mean?
- 14:36So you'll have and well, the market for in general over the
- 14:40long term is, is pretty smart. Obviously it gets things wrong
- 14:45many times. Like anybody who thinks the
- 14:47market is efficient or fully efficient is kidding themselves,
- 14:50right? Like the market was fully
- 14:52efficient, the 2008 financial crisis would have ever happened,
- 14:55right? But that was when the system was
- 14:59over leveraged. And, you know, you had a cascade
- 15:01of events and obviously we were in a bubble.
- 15:05And yeah, if the market's efficient, why do we have
- 15:06bubbles? But anyway, I won't go down that
- 15:09rabbit hole, but the market for the most part is efficient to
- 15:15the extent players are rational and you know, capital is
- 15:18properly allocated. But the reason why this was not
- 15:21pierced and now the expectation is that Verizon was eventually
- 15:24going to have a definitive agreement with AC space mobile
- 15:27and people. People were expecting it, but
- 15:30they were still biting their nails right.
- 15:32And you had Fudster saying oh what if it doesn't happen or
- 15:35where to start? Link signs Verizon.
- 15:37So there is a high degree amount of uncertainty and with every
- 15:40passing a month that degree of uncertainty increased, right?
- 15:44So we were, what was it a year? So last year, last year they
- 15:49signed at the end of May. So you were basically, you know,
- 15:52a year and four months from that initial partnership to get to
- 15:56this defend agreement. So every passive month, the
- 15:58probability of that agreement kind of lay edge down a little
- 16:02bit, right. But more importantly, and yeah,
- 16:05it was a bummer it took so long. But as they say, good things
- 16:08come to those who wait and especially by waiting to sign
- 16:13this different agreement, it tells us a lot of information
- 16:16that the market now has to reassess.
- 16:19And what do I mean by that? Well, So what has happened since
- 16:24June of last year? We've got the block when
- 16:27Bluebirds that are flying around Earth and there's been, you
- 16:31know, testing that's happened with that.
- 16:32You've got obviously the the administration, US has changed,
- 16:37the FCC has changed. They've become much more
- 16:39supportive of the service. So what was viewed as kind of
- 16:42something interesting and great now I mean, was it the FCC
- 16:48Brandon Carr just announced that October is space month and and
- 16:52direct to device connectivity and broadband connectivity in
- 16:55general from space is become the tip of the spear for a Med
- 16:59American competitive leadership globally right.
- 17:03Like we obviously China is developing a, a star like knock
- 17:07off. They are also doing a knock off
- 17:10for a directive device, which, you know, there some of us have
- 17:13seen the, the satellite that looks very similar to our Block
- 17:151 satellites. And, and Chinese going to get
- 17:18there. They're going to make a
- 17:19competing service. However, due to sovereignty
- 17:23issues and, and the like, you know, you're going to have this
- 17:26bifurcation of the market where it can be US and US friendly
- 17:30countries and allies will be using Starlink and HD-6 mobile
- 17:34and you'll have everyone else, meaning it'll be China, people
- 17:38in Russia maybe will be using the service.
- 17:40Who else is there? Iran, W Korea, maybe some
- 17:43African countries. Yeah, there's going to be this
- 17:46other group of, of folks who use the Chinese service and they're
- 17:50going to be comfortable with that.
- 17:51Like, you know, if you're, if your country using Huawei
- 17:54technology, maybe you're OK with, with the satellite using
- 17:59their satellite services. There's some, there's some
- 18:02problems with that. But then, you know, I'm not
- 18:03going to that's a totally different Twitter space.
- 18:08But yeah, the the important thing is that the administration
- 18:10has changed. You know, now we're ramping up
- 18:13production, you know, we've expanded space, but a lot of
- 18:16things have changed over those that you know, what is that?
- 18:2012716 months, right. So for the defendant agreement
- 18:26to be announced now the reason why the market has to re
- 18:29underwrite this for the reason why it was not, you know, was
- 18:31not priced in, is that there the probability of it not happening
- 18:35had gone up over the over time, but now obviously it's happened.
- 18:37So the stock is is, you know, re rating for that.
- 18:41But most importantly, what this is today is a validation of
- 18:46where we are. So what does that mean?
- 18:48Like, but yeah, people are pissing their pants about launch
- 18:51being delayed. You know, we should have got our
- 18:54first satellite, the first lot to satellite up back in what
- 18:58April or that was the original target, which by the way, like
- 19:01I've talked about this before, space companies, you, you put
- 19:03forward aggressive targets because everybody, your
- 19:06employees, your suppliers, your service providers, everybody
- 19:10works towards that target with the understanding that it's
- 19:13aggressive and it it may slip. And then if it slips by a month
- 19:18or two, then great. But if you put out targets that
- 19:20are that are, you know, I would say more conservative or
- 19:24realistic than than often times things will slip beyond that
- 19:28one. And so you, you generally
- 19:31speaking, you want to put forward more aggressive but
- 19:34realistic targets. That's just kind of how the way
- 19:37the world works in space. But yeah, what this means, as I
- 19:41was saying before, is that launch being delayed production
- 19:45and getting ramped up, you know, more.
- 19:47Most importantly, Verizon, you know, they Scott has talked
- 19:50about working with like 100 different folks at Verizon, you
- 19:52know, network integration testing operation, you know,
- 19:57doing all the back end stuff. But but most importantly to me,
- 20:01testing with, you know, on the Verizon network and their
- 20:04spectrum and their phones like that's all happened to you.
- 20:08Verizon also is part of due diligence is probably looked at
- 20:12ASTS funding plans their their ramp of of launching service,
- 20:17like all these different things, right.
- 20:20And then and so over that the past 16 months, a lot has
- 20:23changed and the information that.
- 20:26The the decision point of what Verizon made at the end of May
- 20:30was very, to be quite candid was like pretty uncertain versus the
- 20:34decision they're making today. They have a ton more information
- 20:37and a lot of the, for example, you know, some of the AST space
- 20:41mobile investors criticisms and also the fudsters of like, oh,
- 20:45these are things are delayed and there must be problems or
- 20:47whatever. Verizon's looked over all that
- 20:50stuff and I guarantee you they've been talking to Starling
- 20:52too. And all through that 16 months
- 20:55they've decided today we're going to ASTC, we're signing
- 20:59this contract and that's powerful that that's the mark.
- 21:04No, it's not priced in. They just re underwrote this
- 21:07investment and so did so do all of us and so do institutional
- 21:12investors and so do short sellers and show so does the
- 21:15industry by signing in definitive curve for agreement.
- 21:17Today they looked at everything that has happened up to this
- 21:20point and they look at the future plans and the multi
- 21:23launch campaign and initial commercial service and they're
- 21:27they're voting with their feet. They're saying, all right, we're
- 21:29signing this agreement today. That is powerful.
- 21:34We're not we're not signing with Starlink.
- 21:35We're not signing with some of these like legacy players like
- 21:39this is it? This is where we're making our
- 21:41bed. We've looked at everything and
- 21:43you know, we're not we're not like some fly by night shop, you
- 21:47know, mobile virtual network operator like Boost Mobile or
- 21:51something like no, we're Verizon.
- 21:53We're like the we're we're the most profitable carrier in the
- 21:57United States, you know, along with AT&T and we're making our
- 22:02bet and this is our bet and based off of everything we've
- 22:04seen and the future potential, this is where we want to go.
- 22:08It's ASD space mobile. And so that has ripple effects,
- 22:12right? Like you're going to have all
- 22:16the industry press, you know, Verizon's going to be talking.
- 22:18But then, you know, just as importantly, regulators like the
- 22:21FCCS can be like, oh, OK, so now there's two definitive
- 22:25commercial readings with Verizon.
- 22:26ATTI know Verizon was like working with you guys, but but
- 22:29they're they're serious. So, yeah.
- 22:30And by the way, like the our application for US commercial
- 22:34access just got the comment period closed, I think it was
- 22:38yesterday. And so commercial access, I
- 22:40mean, that's going to be a huge event, right?
- 22:42Like and that's, that's going to be coming.
- 22:44We talked about catalysting. So that's going to be the next
- 22:46few weeks, right, like 2 weeks, maybe a month or two.
- 22:51But when we get granted US commercial access, that is a
- 22:54total game changer, right? Because then you can actually
- 22:57start service and that's a hard thing to do.
- 23:01I mean, for HD-6 mobile, I think our initial application for
- 23:05commercial access was like in 2018, nineteen, I forget.
- 23:09But you know, I, I think it's important like when when people
- 23:12talk about, yeah, no problem, we're going to get into this
- 23:14market too. It's like that's a long, arduous
- 23:17process to do it. And obviously the the FCC is
- 23:20trying to be more accommodative to helping foster innovation and
- 23:25they want to speed up these regulatory processes.
- 23:27But you know, you've got to prove that you can do this.
- 23:31You've got to have partners, you got to have the technology, you
- 23:34got to have spectrum, whether you own that or you partner to,
- 23:38to utilize somebody else's. It's a very long process, right?
- 23:41And then not only just threshold, I mean, spectrum to
- 23:44feeder things or sorry to the device.
- 23:47You also need to get spectrum to, you know, from your ground
- 23:50stations to the satellite. Like it's a it's a big deal.
- 23:52It takes a long time, but anyway, but that's, that's one
- 23:55of the big modes. And I think the most important
- 23:57point is that Verizon by signing this agreement today is
- 24:02basically given at least, you know, this is how I feel they
- 24:06validated everything up to this point.
- 24:08And so there's always going to be like some Maggie questions in
- 24:12anybody's mind of, you know, does the technology scale is it,
- 24:16is it is it going to do well if there's like a lot of users,
- 24:19well, well, guess what they've been testing with these five
- 24:23Block 1 satellites with Verizon and they like what they see.
- 24:29And so I highly, highly doubt that Verizon will be science
- 24:34agreement if there was any question that the service is not
- 24:38going to be successful. And credit to Verizon, like
- 24:42they, they drag their feet, they wanted.
- 24:44It's just like when you are, you know, you have to do something
- 24:50like you buy a house or, or you know, you make some big
- 24:53financial purchase and commitment, but it's like a
- 24:57really big one and you're, you know, it's not, you know, you
- 24:59have to do it, but it's tough. You drag your feet, you wait,
- 25:03you wait until the last minute because you want to have more
- 25:05information. You want like, you know, if
- 25:08you're, if you're buying a house, you want to have the
- 25:11inspections, you want to get an engineer in there, you want to
- 25:13drag your feet. Maybe rates go down.
- 25:16So you want, you don't want to close yet.
- 25:18And then in the meantime, maybe you're like looking at other
- 25:19houses too. And then but you drag your feet
- 25:23because you want absolute perfect information before
- 25:26closing deal. And that's what Verizon did.
- 25:27They drag, that's my perspective.
- 25:29They drag their feet, they waited till the last minute and
- 25:32of course last minute meaning like we're on the cusp of
- 25:34commercial service. So it's like shit or get off the
- 25:36pot and they they're doing it. And by doing that, you know,
- 25:42Verizon has done us a favor by validating up to this point.
- 25:49So that's super powerful. I think I think anybody who kind
- 25:52of tries to poo poo that this Verizon definitive agreement
- 25:55should have been priced in or that it doesn't really mean
- 25:57much, they're kind of are missing, they're missing the
- 26:00plot. They're missing the whole point.
- 26:02Like it's going over the head. And that's what.
- 26:06And by the way, like we saw this back in the end of May last year
- 26:10when Verizon announced a deal with AST space Mobile, the
- 26:16market had to completely shift its its thinking and it was a
- 26:19true validation, right? Like based off of everything up
- 26:22to that point, Verizon was like, yeah, we we we evaluated
- 26:25Starlink and we want to go with AST.
- 26:27And in May if at the end of May 2024 and the stock completely
- 26:33rebated, went from was it like 13 bucks or sorry, not 13 bucks.
- 26:37It was like in the 8 or nines. And then it re rated along with,
- 26:41of course, other news, but it went to like a peak of 39
- 26:43several to 26. And that's because you know,
- 26:49they're for 18 T to work. They see they, you know, to make
- 26:52an investment to have a commercial agreement.
- 26:55You know, the company will work. Company was working with AT&T
- 26:57back in back I guess long back as 2018.
- 27:03And so you know that that was a great yeah great validation.
- 27:09But for a another party to come in later to do all the due
- 27:13diligence and evaluate all the solutions out there, but then
- 27:16decide and you know, also decide with to work with a a big rival
- 27:20for rising to do that back in May of 2034, that was a big
- 27:24validation point. And so today we have a slumber
- 27:27tug event where this definitive commercial agreement is a huge
- 27:30validation of what the company has done today.
- 27:34As I mentioned before, Bell Canada like that, that definite
- 27:38agreement is coming soon. You know, if it's going to
- 27:40happen, you know, Scott, please give us a break.
- 27:43You know, you can do it like, you know, in a few days.
- 27:46I'd be fine with that. You don't have to, you know,
- 27:48stop it now. Give the market like some some
- 27:51time to read. But I think an important thing
- 27:55as well is that Scott has become super savvy and and perhaps it's
- 28:00like through the help of retail, the space mob, but he's become
- 28:03super savvy in terms of PR. And I know people have
- 28:07criticized the company from time to time, but when they do PR,
- 28:10they slap the shit out of people, right?
- 28:12Like it wasn't it. It's not lost on me and nor
- 28:16should it be to any of you, and especially to, you know,
- 28:19institutions and short sellers, like they dropped the ATM
- 28:22yesterday full well knowing that Verizon was coming today, right?
- 28:27And so they put the A-Team in place.
- 28:30And I mentioned this before in my talk yesterday, they're
- 28:32they're pretty in place for a reason.
- 28:34Like there, there's opportunities for them.
- 28:36And you know, people will say, well, the first constellation is
- 28:40fully funded. Yeah, it's fully funded.
- 28:41But there's other stuff to do. There's other stuff to do.
- 28:44Like we whether it was Legato in January, we we bought that
- 28:49spectrum, which in hindsight, of course, everyone would question.
- 28:52But then on Echoes, Sterling did Echo Star was like the smartest
- 28:55thing, the best thing since sliced bread, right?
- 28:58Which it is. And then now Fast forward to
- 29:01stay. Yeah, we're fully funded for the
- 29:03first consolation, but we also have other shit to do.
- 29:06Like if you get Golden Dome or if you get any other defense
- 29:11awards, you're going to have to pre fund some of that cap backs.
- 29:13I mean, there's a reason why we got manufacturing space in
- 29:18Homestead, FL. Like that's for defense.
- 29:20It's not, it's not for commercial stuff.
- 29:22And so that takes money. And so if, if the government
- 29:26would come to you tomorrow and say, hey, we're going to award
- 29:28you a billion dollar contract, but you're going to have to plow
- 29:31in like $100 million, your own money.
- 29:32Are you going to say no, of course not.
- 29:34You're going to you're going to raise money and you're going to
- 29:36go do it. And so I think, you know, it's
- 29:40like that whole thing was lost on people.
- 29:45It's like people are just whining about, Oh my God, the
- 29:47company puts the ATM in place. By the way, like every time the
- 29:49company has recently put in an ATM, the stock is like rallied
- 29:53tremendously because people, people know like at this point
- 29:57the company is a great steward of capital.
- 29:59Like they're, they're doing these things for a very specific
- 30:02reason and they're looking at highly accretive opportunities.
- 30:05So like, who knows, tomorrow they may, you know, they may
- 30:07announce the acquisition of some S band spectrum rights globally,
- 30:13you know, and so there's, there's there's a whole host of
- 30:17things whether, you know, they might need to ramp up satellite
- 30:21production from, you know, Scott has already talked about like if
- 30:24we get some military stuff, we might have to ramp up production
- 30:27from 6 to 12 satellites a month. Like he's telling us now that is
- 30:33in the realm of possibility. He like told the market and the
- 30:37market kind of just shrugged it off.
- 30:38But for people who are paying attention, like that's a fucking
- 30:42big deal. That's crazy.
- 30:43Oh, you need to like build another constellation for the,
- 30:45for the government potentially. And so you, you have to put AATM
- 30:49in place just in case. Yeah, take my money.
- 30:52And so it was funny because like Kook has talked about this
- 30:56where, you know, when you get to a point where the where the
- 31:01narrative had changed and the market understands why you need
- 31:05capital and it's for highly creative opportunities.
- 31:09When you do a fundraise. And by the way, the company does
- 31:13not do is not doing market offerings anymore.
- 31:15They're they're going to do this through AT Ms. which are very
- 31:17efficient. They've done the right way and
- 31:19if the if supported by the market, you know, you have like
- 31:23little slippage and you can take advantage of when the stock
- 31:26price is in your favor, when the market understands that and
- 31:32you're going to be a good steward of capital and a good
- 31:34fiduciary, then they reward you. They reward you for it.
- 31:37It's like why some companies when they do following offerings
- 31:40or converts, you know, stock may trade down a few percent for the
- 31:45next day. You see it up.
- 31:46And so yesterday we saw that shift, that paradigm shift where
- 31:51the company announced an ATM. You know, the market shit it's
- 31:55pants through degree. And and of course, I'm sure
- 31:57short short sellers, you can always count on those clowns.
- 32:01They shorted the stock down to 6% in the hole in the morning.
- 32:06And you had our our favorite short seller.
- 32:10He's kind of like a Keystone copper.
- 32:12Just some of these guys. I mean, they truly are the
- 32:15bottom signal. God bless them.
- 32:17I hope they keep going because I've made a ton of money by just
- 32:20following them. And by the way, like I, I, I do
- 32:22think Pivotal Capital and Adata Capital, they're definitely
- 32:27worth following. I should actually follow them
- 32:30today. But they truly are the bottom
- 32:33signal When they get, when they get very confident and they say
- 32:37it's over and they tweet like FUD, that's the time when you
- 32:41want to, if you're trading any part of your position, that's
- 32:43when you want to get longer at exposure because they just never
- 32:47miss. They're so good.
- 32:49And so, you know, kudos to them. I I, I believe like Pivot
- 32:52Capital, Pivotal Capital, I think he probably works in a pod
- 32:55shop. But if I was like I said, if I
- 32:57was his boss, I would pay him like 3X whatever he makes.
- 33:00I would just tell him, you know, just keep giving me your best
- 33:03ideas. And then I would have a separate
- 33:05book so that I wouldn't, you know, hurt his feelings.
- 33:07But I would just take the other side of everything gaming
- 33:10because I mean, he's just an absolute money maker.
- 33:13But anyway, I digress a little bit.
- 33:15But yeah, so I think, yeah, I just thinking when I talk about
- 33:23this paradigm shift, actually where was I?
- 33:29That engine kind of threw me off.
- 33:33But yeah, so I think like the fact that the company can raise
- 33:37capital and people view that, know that they're going to do
- 33:41highly accretive things with that.
- 33:43That changes things quite a bit, right.
- 33:45You go from a what is a pre revenue startup, which by the
- 33:50way like we're going to start, we're generating material
- 33:52revenues this quarter and it's going to continue to ramp.
- 33:55But when we do fundraising like that's going to be, I think
- 33:59people are going to be that positively.
- 34:00Now obviously there's like a bunch of retail investors among
- 34:04the mob. We were like, oh, the solution
- 34:05is bad, but no, it's not. It's people sometimes forget
- 34:10like growth companies, the capital to grow and pursue
- 34:14opportunities until they get to a point profitability where they
- 34:17become self funding. We're not there yet, but we're
- 34:19getting everyday we're getting closer and closer.
- 34:22And then when you do have inorganic opportunities, meaning
- 34:25you know something beyond what's in front of your face, but you
- 34:28know, you, you need to whether it's M&A or there's like a
- 34:31completely new business that you have to pursue.
- 34:33Sometimes you need to raise capital as an accelerant to go
- 34:36pursue them, right. And so that's, that's kind of
- 34:38what we're seeing. But the other thing I wanted to
- 34:42talk about, so this is what got me bulled up last night when I
- 34:45was talking with Kook. You know, we were, I guess a few
- 34:49things we were talking about. One was when, where, where can
- 34:52the stock price go? This kind of, I see reform
- 34:54trader down there. His, his analysis kind of got us
- 34:57thinking about it. And, and I think anybody who
- 35:00throws around like the potential of $500 stock price, it, it kind
- 35:04of, it's hard to comprehend, but when you think about where the
- 35:07market is now, and I'll be the first person to say like, we're
- 35:10in a pretty frothy environment, but the question is, what part
- 35:15of the cycle are we in, right? So we're in this mode now where
- 35:19more rate cuts are coming because of what's going on in
- 35:22Japan. And we're basically in zerk
- 35:23again, like 0 interest rate environment or heading that way
- 35:26soon. And so my guess is like, you
- 35:29know, are we in the third inning?
- 35:30Are we in the 4th inning? But we probably have another, I
- 35:33don't know, 6 to 12 months. And there's going to be like
- 35:35gyrations along the way in corrections.
- 35:37But this is a very accommodative environment.
- 35:41And then especially given what the US government is doing.
- 35:45And I'll talk about how this is how this plays into space.
- 35:48But yeah, I mean, it, it's it's you have a president who watches
- 35:53the stock market every day and is highly supportive.
- 35:55And whenever the market sells off, he calls people panic.
- 35:58And and then when things go well, he like takes a victory
- 36:00lap. So clearly they're focused on
- 36:02managing the market in addition to, you know, the economy and
- 36:05other things. And now what does that mean long
- 36:07term? It's probably not a good thing
- 36:09for the for for the economy to get to, you know, to get
- 36:16basically juiced up. But I think it's important to
- 36:19recognize the game and to understand it and to play it
- 36:23properly. And what I mean by that is
- 36:25during this period of time, things are going to work and
- 36:29things that are speculative are going to work.
- 36:31And so do you, you know, you can take one side of the view of,
- 36:35well, I'm not going to participate because I think it's
- 36:37all everything's kind of overvalued or, and sit on hands,
- 36:41or you can actually look at trends and situations and, and
- 36:46take advantage of it, right. And I think, and how does this
- 36:49relate to ACCS mobile? I I think the opportunity for
- 36:52the stock price to get to several 100 to, you know, 1000
- 36:56like that's all in the realm of possibility, but it's going to
- 36:59take a long time. At least in a normal, a normal
- 37:03distribution, like a normal market.
- 37:04It would take time of execution of rolling out service of
- 37:09getting, you know, the service getting to a level where you
- 37:12you've got like a number of subscribers, maybe hundreds to
- 37:15then billions of revenue to eventually get to some of these
- 37:18prices. But then when you're in a market
- 37:21that is basically pulling forward expectations and
- 37:25discounting that crazy things can happen, right.
- 37:28So what I mean by that is what was it?
- 37:32I guess it was like a year ago, two years ago, like we all knew
- 37:34about AI and, and there were some people who were early in
- 37:37terms of touting the benefits and how it's going to be
- 37:40disruptive. But the second order and 3rd
- 37:43order effects, I don't think people fully understood, right?
- 37:46And so the ones that did started buying, you know, I remember
- 37:49when some of the Bitcoin miners started, you know, that first
- 37:53deal, I think it was like core Weaver, somebody did a deal for
- 37:57an AI to to host AI infrastructure, which, you know,
- 38:01I did some cursory research and I was like, Oh yeah, these these
- 38:04like crypto mining companies are probably going to be great
- 38:09hosts, you know, great providers of basically AI data centers,
- 38:13right. And so, but I never acted on it
- 38:17because I was so busy with the AST and of course things were
- 38:19going well. It just didn't really focus.
- 38:21And by the way, like there's a lot of things that are going on.
- 38:24It's OK to stay focused on what you do.
- 38:26And, and when you realize like there's a lot of opportunities,
- 38:29sometimes when there's so much noise, you can't focus, you end
- 38:32up missing or not doing things well and everything.
- 38:34Like you just really have to stay focused on the thing that
- 38:37you know, well, but if you had kind of made that connection and
- 38:43it's like, OK, well, there's going to be a tremendous demand
- 38:45for AI and these these processors are going to need
- 38:47power. Then I should go buy like these
- 38:50crazy concepts of next generation modular nuclear
- 38:54companies that are out 1015 years out.
- 38:57Like maybe I should take a punt on some of these and, and even
- 39:01quantum computing, like some of these names when they were
- 39:03trading of a dollar or so. It's like, oh, maybe I should
- 39:05take a punt now. Obviously, like there's a huge
- 39:07question about, you know, the modular reactors.
- 39:10I think those eventually will come to, you know, that the the,
- 39:14those will become commercially viable.
- 39:16And, but, but now they're being discounted to all of them are
- 39:21being the valuations being discounted to today.
- 39:23As you know, they're all decent monitoring to be successful and
- 39:26really needed. And by the way, like I've
- 39:28started doing some work around solar, like every type of energy
- 39:33source, whether this administration likes or not,
- 39:36like all of them are going to be important, right?
- 39:38Because there's going to be this huge demand for electricity and,
- 39:43and whether it's nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, like everything's
- 39:48going to need to be tapped. And so some of these solar
- 39:51names, you've seen them rally quite a bit.
- 39:53I think we're starting to see, you know, the big, the boom into
- 39:56that. But the reason why I mentioned
- 39:57these things is that we're in this market environment now
- 40:00where people can see that they're not looking at just one
- 40:03or two years out now because of Ray.
- 40:05Something's floppy. But then people kind of see
- 40:07where things are going. You're looking at 4567 years, 10
- 40:11years out. I mean, for these nuclear names
- 40:13is 10 to 20 years out. And so going back to what
- 40:17Reformed trader was saying is like you have these sectors
- 40:21where there's like there's multiple ways to express the
- 40:24investment of the thesis, whether it's nuclear, quantum,
- 40:27you know, AI. But then for this particular
- 40:30market, which is going to be massive.
- 40:31And I'll talk about why it's going to be massive.
- 40:34There's only two companies to express the bet, right?
- 40:36I mean, there's like a few legacy guys that are doing X
- 40:39messaging and and very intermittent type of services.
- 40:43That's that would be Iridium, which got who's gotten destroyed
- 40:46global star, which is rally because it's it's Apple
- 40:49association. And then there's a few others as
- 40:52well. But if you want to focus on
- 40:55direct to device broadband connectivity, I will I guess
- 40:59broadband connectivity that then that would primarily be AC space
- 41:01mobile. And then if you are looking at
- 41:03emerging broadband connectivity or eventually that would be
- 41:05Starlink. The only way to invest in
- 41:08Starlink is through for most normal investors is through a
- 41:12special purpose vehicle that you know somebody is is shilling.
- 41:16You would send you, you know, in order to which holds Starlink
- 41:20shares and then you've got to pay 2 and 20 to participate in
- 41:23that vehicle. That's one way.
- 41:26And then by the way, like SpaceX is worth $450 billion.
- 41:29So you know, how much upside is there?
- 41:32You know, could it trade over a trillion?
- 41:34Sure, but but it's going to take some time to get there.
- 41:39But then the other way to play it is in the public markets is a
- 41:43Steve space mobile. There's like one true.
- 41:45And by the way, it's not like you're getting exposure to
- 41:48rockets and you're getting exposure.
- 41:50I mean, in Spacex's case, that's good because they're a dominant
- 41:53provider. But here you're getting very
- 41:56exact exposure to the niche that you want, which is direct to
- 42:00device connectivity, which is an exciting market.
- 42:02It's going to transform and disrupt the wireless industry.
- 42:06And this is the only true way to express the bet.
- 42:09And it's a great way to express the bet goes through the company
- 42:11that has a technological lead. It's working with over 50 M and
- 42:16OS globally covering 3 billion subscribers.
- 42:19It's got regulatory back in the US.
- 42:21It's it's about to, you know, you get regulatory backing in
- 42:25Europe, you know, it's already going through the regulatory
- 42:28process in Japan and and so on and so forth, right?
- 42:31Like this is the way to play it. You've got Eldan spectrum
- 42:35through regatto, which you know, depending on how people
- 42:38evaluate, is it worth 15 billion, You know, wind fully
- 42:41deployed 20 billion, you know, the market cap of AST space
- 42:44mobile recently, I haven't looked as of today, but it was
- 42:47like 26,000,000. So, so you're already getting
- 42:50like a high valuable asset that the company owns for the next 80
- 42:53years, right? But the reason why I think so
- 42:59going back to what reformed trader was saying, like if
- 43:01people are pulling forward expectations in this, you know,
- 43:04this frothy environment, like, you know, I, I talked about how
- 43:08once we get to the launch campaign and we get into launch,
- 43:13like I think a stock price of 100 is likely.
- 43:15And that was putting aside like we're not even discounting, you
- 43:19know, a Verizon definitive crucial agreement, which by the
- 43:21way, it just happened today. And then Bell Canada first net,
- 43:25some of these other things are getting commercial access to the
- 43:27US. But just just on launch, I
- 43:28thought we were going to go from it was at 49 dots to call it,
- 43:33you know, 100 or at the low end, you know, 70.
- 43:37I think in the my post, which I was pinned like 79.
- 43:40So where do you pass that? And, and we know like these
- 43:43things can overshoot because like in the first launch
- 43:46campaign, the stock went from 13 to as high as 39 and then kind
- 43:49of settled at 26. So I, I don't know what the
- 43:52ultimate high is going to be. And then then we'll obviously
- 43:55pull back from that and settle, you know, once once launch
- 43:58happens. But yeah, once people I think
- 44:02and Kevin Mack had mentioned this before yesterday, he's
- 44:04like, I don't think it's shortcoming and it's people who
- 44:06are re rating the stock higher because they see the
- 44:10fundamentals are improving, which I agree with.
- 44:12And so, yeah, I mean, we're as the as institutions are, you
- 44:18know, they're getting to the office today and like, oh, wait,
- 44:20they see space mobile. They signed it to fit an
- 44:23agreement with Verizon. So it's good to see that that's
- 44:25another milestone. What does that mean?
- 44:27Oh, I guess these guys are going to be one of two big winners of
- 44:30this massive market. But then I would argue they
- 44:33don't really know what the market is yet and that this is
- 44:36kind of the next section I'm getting into.
- 44:38But yeah, it it that's that's how the stock price could re
- 44:41rate much higher beyond what we think, because we as investors
- 44:46think we know most of the story. But then once the market, the
- 44:50rest of the market decides like this is the name to own and you
- 44:54have a ton of demand for the stock, then that's when the
- 44:57numbers OF100200300 like it's possible, it's possible.
- 45:01Or 500 is, as a form trader said, under the right
- 45:04conditions, you could get this like high level view for it,
- 45:07which is why I go back to where Myspace the other day, which is
- 45:12like, make sure you have a plan. Like even these scenarios that
- 45:16you thought were not possible until maybe 1-2, three years
- 45:19later, have a plan in case those things get pulled forward
- 45:22because it's possible. I'm not saying it's, it's likely
- 45:25and I'm not saying it should happen, but it can happen.
- 45:29And there's a decent chance it will.
- 45:30And I'll explain why here shortly because I think this,
- 45:35this next segment is like why there's a great chance that will
- 45:38happen. So here's the title of this
- 45:41space. Like 100% connectivity is a true
- 45:45paradigm shift. It's like it's going to
- 45:47transform mobile connectivity, what it means to be connected,
- 45:52and it's going to be required. It's not going to be something
- 45:54like an aspiration. It's going to be absolutely
- 45:56required. And I think I see Ryan O'Connor
- 46:00down there and, and, and Prania as well as I've written about
- 46:03this in their recent letters. But you know, when you have a
- 46:07true paradigm shift, that's when the real rewriting happens,
- 46:10right? And I think it's something that
- 46:11I didn't really appreciate. And yeah, we all, we've all
- 46:14talked about it. And but he kind of hit home when
- 46:17I was speaking to this industry consultant who knows the telecom
- 46:22site very well. He, he works with like all the
- 46:23major M and OS. And he was saying one of the
- 46:27killer use cases of this is the fact that everything needs to be
- 46:31connected at all times, right? And so his, his analogy was
- 46:34like, imagine Domino's Pizza. They want to go deliver pizzas
- 46:37by drone. The FAA is going to ask the
- 46:42first question to be like, so are you going to, are these
- 46:44drones going to be connected all the time?
- 46:46And they're going to say, Oh yeah, you know where they have
- 46:48these like 3 GBP modems and they're going to have a service
- 46:52of the Verizon or AT&T. But then, and so, yeah, they'll
- 46:55be connected. And then the FAA will say, well,
- 46:57no, you have to guarantee me that they're going to be 100%
- 47:00connected. There can't be even through dead
- 47:02spots. They need to have connectivity
- 47:03and then and then Domino's going to be like, what do you mean
- 47:06it's a dead spot? They can't have connectivity.
- 47:08So during that period of time, like the drone will have
- 47:10autonomous, you know, functionality where it'll figure
- 47:13out where it is through GPS and it'll make it through that dead
- 47:17spot. And the FAA will say this is
- 47:19dead on arrival. I'm not proving this because
- 47:22like, I think for public safety, imagine a world where, you know,
- 47:26we talked about like Internet of Things and, and drones and
- 47:30robots and autonomous vehicles. Forget about autonomous
- 47:34vehicles, even just regular your day-to-day car today, right?
- 47:38Everything in the future will need to be connected and it
- 47:41needs, it's not just connected, but it'll have to have 100%
- 47:44connectivity. So for these companies that are
- 47:46looking at drones or robots, like you cannot from a
- 47:51regulatory point of view, you know, and if it's like an
- 47:54autonomous truck, like a semi barreling down a highway, but it
- 47:58goes into a dead, dead spot of coverage, The writers going to
- 48:02be like, there's no fucking way I'm approving this because they
- 48:05need a human operator that's monitoring these things at any
- 48:07point in time to have their finger on a kill switch that
- 48:11basically turns the thing off because if you don't do that,
- 48:14then then human lives are at risk, right.
- 48:16And so going back to the pizza analogy, like if there's a, if
- 48:20there's kids playing in the yard and this drone is in a dead spot
- 48:23of coverage and it and the kit and the drone decides to land on
- 48:25the kid and the kid gets injured or, or a pet gets injured.
- 48:28Like the company, Domino's can't afford that type of liability.
- 48:32And you would have a huge backlash of like, fuck these
- 48:34drones. Like no one's, no one wants to
- 48:36use them. And so it's going to be a bare
- 48:40minimum, minimal requirement that you have 100% country, no
- 48:44matter where you are for these types of vehicles or services.
- 48:47And so terrestrial networks can't do that because you have
- 48:51to build a tower. And you know, if you want 100%
- 48:54community, you're going to have to overbuild, You're going to
- 48:56have to build in areas where it's uneconomic.
- 48:58But even then, you're going to have dead spots because towers
- 49:01aren't perfect. They don't, they may not overlap
- 49:03perfectly or there may be like valleys or they may be different
- 49:07areas where they, where they don't work.
- 49:08And so the beauty of AC6 Mobile is 1, It uses a cellular
- 49:13spectrum and it will cover those dead spots.
- 49:15But then just as importantly, this is where the company's like
- 49:18truly visionary. They will leverage their L van
- 49:21spectrum, which covers the entirety of the US and Canada.
- 49:24And then, you know, they're going to expand to other
- 49:25countries as well. But that's true ubiquitous 100%
- 49:29coverage that overlaps with the trash network.
- 49:31You can go to the DMNO and say, hey, look, I'm going to leverage
- 49:34your spectrum and we're going to use the cellular spectrum in
- 49:38these dead areas. But then we're also going to
- 49:41provide you with this MSS spectrum for to augment your
- 49:45capacity. Like you're going to be able to
- 49:47leverage our network in areas where perhaps, you know, it's
- 49:50congested, like, let's say a football game like will help.
- 49:53We're going to, we're going to put in, we're going to give you
- 49:55additional connectivity options where then you're going to
- 49:58aggregate like, and then I'll put in spectrum connectivity.
- 50:03But then more thing is that they're going to be able to go
- 50:07to car manufacturers, real by manufacturers prones and say,
- 50:11Hey, look, IAT and T and price are going to say, Hey, we can
- 50:13give you 100% guaranteed coverage.
- 50:16And then those guys are going to be able to go to regulators, the
- 50:18FAA, the Highway Safety Administration or whatever,
- 50:22NHSTA or whatever. And they're going to be able to
- 50:25say, Hey, we, these, these vehicles are going to be
- 50:27connected all the time. We're going to be monitored by
- 50:29humans. If there's any issues, then
- 50:31we'll be able to control it and we'll be able to, you know, shut
- 50:33them down. And that's like a true game
- 50:35changer. And and that's just like, you
- 50:39know, we talk about the MN OS having 3 billion subscribers.
- 50:43Like forget about the subscribers, like how many
- 50:45devices there are going to be. If there's like 3 billion
- 50:47subscribers, there could be 15 billion devices that need to be
- 50:51connected or 20 billion. I don't know you, you make up
- 50:53the number. I mean, my family, we've got
- 50:56like 4 phones, 2 watches, No 3 watches.
- 51:01We've got like all these air Tags, which by the way, like
- 51:03those things eventually are going to get a cellular modem or
- 51:07some type of ability to connect. Like just imagine the
- 51:10proliferation of devices in your house and then and then imagine
- 51:14like those device, some number of those devices going outside
- 51:18and need to be connected any, anytime, anywhere.
- 51:21And so that's a huge paradigm shift.
- 51:23And, and it's not, you know, the other thing is like ACE TS,
- 51:27large satellites are able because we have a large phased
- 51:30array and the spectral efficiency and you know, you
- 51:33have cellular and also MSS spectrum being able to penetrate
- 51:39walls, houses, but also like cars.
- 51:42That's going to be really important when people want to
- 51:44use the service, right? You don't want to be dropped
- 51:47even if you're, I mean, I think I talked about this before, like
- 51:5080% of device usage is in the house, but then that 20% when
- 51:55you're out, half of that, call it 10% is in your car and you
- 51:58want it to work through the roof of your car.
- 52:00But having ubiquitous coverage is going to be important, not
- 52:04just for like physical human subscribers, but it's going to
- 52:07be required for all these devices and vehicles that
- 52:11especially the vehicles that are going to provide services that
- 52:16will need to be connected all the time.
- 52:18And that's not going to be something that a company just
- 52:21decides how come it's going to be required by regulators.
- 52:25And so and you and then of course, you can like imagine
- 52:28that into the defense applications and the battle
- 52:31space. We don't need to go through
- 52:33that. But I mean, all the things that
- 52:34are connected, Andrew, and you name it, like all these things
- 52:36are going to have to be connected and there's enough
- 52:39redundancy. The the enemy is going to try to
- 52:41jam one network. And that's why I like AC space
- 52:44Mobile, Starlink, even some of these other players like the,
- 52:48the US government's going to leverage everybody because
- 52:51you're going to want to have resiliency.
- 52:53So if something is jammed, then something else works.
- 52:57So there's going to be like a seat at the table for pretty
- 52:59much everybody. But I think, I think like when
- 53:04talking about re rating, most institutions are focused on the
- 53:08consumer side. You know, they haven't even
- 53:10thought about golden Dome defense applications.
- 53:12I mean, everybody sees AC space mobile and they think of like,
- 53:15hey, that's a mobile phone company that can connect to
- 53:17satellites. No, it's way beyond that.
- 53:20And, and Prana and his investor letter yesterday covered like in
- 53:25detail because the guy's been studying, he's been basically
- 53:29become a knight, an engineer at night.
- 53:31He's been reading a lot of books about spectrum and, and the
- 53:34different applications that can be used with spectrum.
- 53:36And so in his letter last night, which I posted, you can see to
- 53:42me it crystallized what it meant.
- 53:43Like, yeah, and, and Cassie's written about this too, but like
- 53:47deals utilize our two satellites in order to view basically like
- 53:51radar imaging and tracking is pretty damn cool.
- 53:54And the accuracy that you're able to get from those two
- 53:58satellites is is invasion. But yeah, so I think for
- 54:03institutional investors, once they kind of, you know, they
- 54:05scratch the surface and get involved, then they start
- 54:08peeling back the layers and it's like, Oh my God, this is not
- 54:11just a mobile phone connectivity company, it's a defense company.
- 54:15It's like 100% connectivity for drones and, you know, all all
- 54:21kinds of things, right? Kind of enabling the next
- 54:23generation of applications where as, as some people said,
- 54:28manipulating photons or spectrum, you know, basically
- 54:31spectrum is going to be key to enabling these other areas of
- 54:35growth, which are Richard drones and AI, you know, any number of
- 54:40things. But anyway, but yeah, it's, it's
- 54:44an exciting time. I think as I mentioned before
- 54:47today is a big validation point that the market, it's going to
- 54:51take time to digest and before they're able to adjust it,
- 54:54there's going to be another news event which will be about Canada
- 54:56on shore. But I think it's important to
- 55:00know like it's got like from a investor perspective, like the
- 55:05guy knows how to he's a killer. He like dropped.
- 55:09I, I, I didn't get to finish this point before now.
- 55:11I'm thinking about that, thinking back about it.
- 55:13He dropped the ATM. He he, but before that he told
- 55:16us like all these great things are happening, but he dropped
- 55:18the ATM. I'm sure a bunch of shorts and
- 55:21other people like, you know, the short sellers sold and or sorry,
- 55:25shorten the sock and, and of course for those of us who knew,
- 55:29Oh yeah, the company's dropping the ATM, it must mean like
- 55:31something big's happening. And by the way, like I gave
- 55:33credit to Rocket Lab holders like they understand Rocket Lab
- 55:36like sets up the ATM Oh, Peter Beck must be he sees like some
- 55:41really creative like acquisitions.
- 55:42So, so this is good. Whereas like I think some of
- 55:45our, our shoulders need to be conditioned as such that when
- 55:49the company's raising capital, they're raising it for a reason.
- 55:51The last time they they spent big money was on legato and and
- 55:55that was like a highly a creative transaction.
- 55:57They're putting this ATM in place for a reason.
- 56:00It's not to fund the current consolation because it's totally
- 56:03funny. It's to go pursue other
- 56:06opportunities, many of which we don't even we can't comprehend.
- 56:10And so I'll end the space for that that, you know, as we enter
- 56:16in catalyst season, there's going to be a lot more great
- 56:19news. I I just dropped, I reposted my
- 56:23my old post from August in which I need to update on milestones
- 56:26that have passed and upcoming catalyst.
- 56:29Now several of those casts have already come to pass, but I
- 56:31think near term we can look forward to our FM 1 FMT launch
- 56:36and then FM 3 through 5 launch, all which I mean should happen
- 56:41before the end of the year. Bell Canada Defender Agreement,
- 56:44Golden Dome and any other defense awards.
- 56:48And then, yeah, there's other partner MNO partnerships that
- 56:52can come to fruition. First that, you know, we've been
- 56:55panning the table for quite some time, but we do know that
- 56:59they're close to making some type of investment or contract.
- 57:02So, so that should be coming soon.
- 57:04And, and yeah, there's a lot of things that, I mean, you can
- 57:07just read the list. But anyway, I hope that was
- 57:09helpful. The market's about to open.
- 57:11I need to get ready to do to, to make some moves.
- 57:14So I'm going to end the space here.
- 57:16But yeah, thanks everyone for joining.
- 57:17I hope this is helpful, but yeah, very big day to be
- 57:20excited. Verizon signing this commercial
- 57:23agreement, huge validation point after 16 months, everything
- 57:28that's happened since then and about to happen, Verizon feels
- 57:32really good about. And the science commercial
- 57:34agreement. So a big fucking deal.
- 57:36Take care everyone. We are all the best.
- 58:26I'll be for both of us. They're the best.
- 59:11The. She lifts around she draws the
- 59:24wink a clap to simply March in the safe patrol and under my my
- 59:30steep. My big Lord.
- 59:35She hung around the sound of that the longest of my heart
- 59:46stepped here up and home open the board's.
- 59:53We are all the winners. We are all the best.
- 59:57My people bump this up. They're the tea the mess ever on
- 1:00:01the lunar only going all the way.
- 1:00:07So Harvey and the movement all my life give me yeah.
- 1:00:11We are all the winners. We are all the best.
- 1:00:16The Beast. We are all the winners, we are
- 1:00:31all the winners, we are all the. Thanks for listening to the AST
- 1:00:43Space Mobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
- 1:00:46you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
- 1:00:49others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
- 1:00:52review. To catch all the latest news
- 1:00:55about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
- 1:00:58Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
- 1:01:04We're doing something very, very big, an activity technology.
- 1:01:07We can really affect billion lives.
- 1:01:10AFT Space Mobile is the only company that has proven
- 1:01:13technology to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly
- 1:01:17from space. In everyday smartphone, people
- 1:01:21will just basically turn their phone and be seamless,
- 1:01:24regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 1:01:27know that it's connected by satellite.
- 1:01:29Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership
- 1:01:33with the MMO. Listen, Waffles.