Latest / Agentic Conversations (formally mlops.community) / Machine Learning, AI Agents, and Autonomy // Egor Kraev // #282
Transcript
- 0:00So hi, I'm Iego Kraev. I am now principal AI scientist
- 0:06and wise until recently heading up and building up its AI team.
- 0:11Parallel to that, I'm fortunate to also be able to work on my
- 0:15startup on causal inference in marketing code name Causaltun I
- 0:23I instead of coffee I prefer green tea.
- 0:26Things like long gene, for example, There is, you know,
- 0:30there are certain things, there are certain things, but once you
- 0:32know what how the good stuff tastes, you cannot really drink
- 0:35the best stuff anymore. Like wine, whiskey and green tea
- 0:38is certain of them. Welcome back to the ML Alps
- 0:42Community Podcast. I'm your host Dimitrios, and
- 0:44today we got into the traditional ML, the AI world of
- 0:50things, and also the AI agents world of things.
- 0:52And Igor has built packages and open source products for each
- 0:57one of those. It was really cool to dig into
- 1:00what exactly he's done with the different ones, be it fraud
- 1:05detection or segmentation and AB testing in emails or LLMS as
- 1:11being just one part of your DAG and how it's, it's really useful
- 1:16to think of an LLM as taking unstructured, messy data and
- 1:22turning it into structured data. And lastly, the framework Motley
- 1:27crew that he created around AI agents so that you can use
- 1:31various AI agent tools or frameworks if you want to.
- 1:37You don't have to be locked into just lane chain or lane graph or
- 1:41Lum index or crew. AI Monthly Crew allows you to
- 1:45have a monthly crew of agents and leverage what's best about
- 1:49each one of those. Let's jump into this
- 1:54conversation now. And for those who are on
- 1:57Spotify, I've got a nice little song recommendation for you
- 2:01coming right up, which is from my new favourite playlist, Big
- 2:06Desk Energy. And this song is called Smeds by
- 2:12Steve Cardigan. That saxophone is just too good.
- 2:59All right, folks, I'll catch you on the other side.
- 3:07Have a very happy holidays and a wonderful new year.
- 3:15Let's get into this conversation.
- 3:38I think we spoke two or three times in the past year and we
- 3:42didn't record any of those conversations.
- 3:45And now I'm glad that we are finally recording this
- 3:48conversation. So before we get into any of the
- 3:53technical stuff which I want to talk about, because as I
- 3:56mentioned many times when we spoke, I'm a happy user of Wise.
- 4:01I love the product. I know you're leading all kinds
- 4:04of AI initiatives at Wise. What's up with the pirate stuff?
- 4:09That's what I really want to know.
- 4:11I am one of the founders of the Swiss Pirate Party and.
- 4:17What does that even mean? Well, it means whatever people
- 4:21make it mean, of course. For me, what it means is that I
- 4:25think the balance between copyright and public access is
- 4:29way out of is way out of line in pretty much all Western
- 4:34countries or all countries I'm aware of really.
- 4:38Because having being able to control anything, any
- 4:41information that you created is not a God-given, right?
- 4:44Right. It's a monopoly created by
- 4:46government and therefore that monopoly must serve the public
- 4:49good. And because the monopoly always
- 4:51destroys value. So it's only worthwhile if it
- 4:54also adds value. And now, for example, the
- 4:56thriving open source products which we all know from Linux to
- 5:00countless things, show that it's not necessary in all cases to
- 5:06have copyright protection for good things to come into to come
- 5:09into being. Sometimes it is, sometimes it
- 5:11isn't. And So what?
- 5:12For me, what the Pirate Party is striving to do is to shift the
- 5:16balance a little bit. Wow, OK so I was way off base
- 5:21when I thought it was like you all were dressing up as pirates,
- 5:25maybe outside of Halloween and having parties.
- 5:29When I saw that written I thought, oh man, he likes to
- 5:34wear patches over his eyes and. No, it's the other kind of
- 5:37pirates. It's a classic example of
- 5:39concept. Hijack.
- 5:41Yeah, great. You did well.
- 5:45You had me. I'm very misdirected.
- 5:48So the other piece that is cool to talk about before we jump
- 5:53into Wise and everything you do in there is the work that you've
- 5:56done over the years before you hit Wise.
- 5:58And I know you were in Africa, you were in Ghana for a little
- 6:02bit, right? And yeah, can you explain what
- 6:06you were doing there? Oh that was a wonderful story.
- 6:10I was a student in the US and being a young passionate
- 6:15student, I got involved in the anti globalisation protests
- 6:18against the IMF and the World Bank, doing bad things or what
- 6:24the organisers said about things in all sorts of developing
- 6:26countries. And then I was part of those
- 6:31protests. It was all very nice, very
- 6:33civilised. In fact I was reminded of
- 6:36umberta Echo's descriptions in the Name of the Rose about the
- 6:40heretics. It's like a carnival.
- 6:42It was this wonderful, wonderful thing and that as part of this,
- 6:44some of us were invited to the IMF where the people from the
- 6:48IMF were explaining to us what it is actually do and they're
- 6:51not actually evil and all that. And after that, just that very
- 6:56night, there was a party at one of the nonprofits that I was
- 7:00that I was hanging out with. And there I was telling the lady
- 7:04who was organising the party and who had a nonprofit.
- 7:08Like I was telling her, like this IMF guy took such a
- 7:10horrible, such a horrible job of explaining what they did.
- 7:14Like, I could have done a better job of explaining what they do,
- 7:17clearer and shorter and anything.
- 7:20And then she said to me, well, there's somebody I'd like you to
- 7:22meet. And then she introduced me to
- 7:24Charles Abu Grey, who was a big guy in the nonprofit scene.
- 7:28So he had a start up in Ghana doing all sorts of public good
- 7:32stuff. And then he invited me over for
- 7:35a week, first of all. And then we got along.
- 7:38And then I ended up spending at least half of my PhD there doing
- 7:42all kinds of Economic Research for that nonprofit.
- 7:47What kind of Economic Research was it?
- 7:50It was quite mundane actually. So relationships between
- 7:55inflation and income distribution, inequality, that
- 7:59sort of thing. But to what made me then move
- 8:03on, change, change careers is the realisation that it doesn't
- 8:06really matter what research I was doing because the name of
- 8:10the game is just by having somebody who does any kind of
- 8:14credible research move the move the nonprofit to a different
- 8:18league. So they were invited to
- 8:19different tables and could take part in different conversations
- 8:22on the back of that. But the content itself was
- 8:25irrelevant and once or largely irrelevant as long as it was
- 8:28largely pointing in the right direction that the nonprofit was
- 8:31aligning with. And once I realised that I and
- 8:35also got tired of being poor, which is part of working as a
- 8:38nonprofit in Africa, I changed. I changed careers and went to an
- 8:43investment bank. So you went on the exact
- 8:48opposite side. You're like, you know, that guy
- 8:50from the IMF, He actually that stuff they're doing wasn't so
- 8:54bad. Maybe I should get try my hand
- 8:56at finance. Yeah.
- 8:59You know, if you can't beat and join them.
- 9:01Yeah, incredible. Well, I want to say a few things
- 9:05that I've jotted down from our conversations and I would love
- 9:08for you to elaborate on them because every time that I talk
- 9:12to you, I feel like you have a tonne of hot takes and you are
- 9:18knee deep in so many different areas of AI and ML, from
- 9:24traditional ML all the way to LLMS and AI, quote unquote, all
- 9:30the way to AI agents. And so one thing that you said
- 9:35to me that stuck with me was AI is a bridge from unstructured to
- 9:42structured. Can you explain what you mean by
- 9:44that? Well I would rather say that one
- 9:48of the biggest trolls for large language models is being a
- 9:52bridge between unstructured and structured data.
- 9:55Because if you think about the way we did data science only two
- 9:58years ago is you first had to make everything into a vector or
- 10:03a matrix and then you would begin working with it.
- 10:07So when do you when do you do topic decomposition?
- 10:10Then topics were just areas in vector space really.
- 10:14And then you had a hell of a job explaining what they even meant
- 10:17and you have no hope in hell for normal human to modify them.
- 10:20Whereas now if you do topic classification then topics
- 10:24descriptions are the topics because the LM going to work
- 10:27with the draw text directly and at least 3/4 of production
- 10:32implications for lamps that I've seen are just the LLM converting
- 10:37incoming fluffy language data into something structured.
- 10:43Is that a customer complaint? What is the what is the rate on
- 10:48this contract? The late charges percentage
- 10:51rate. Input goes a contract, out goes
- 10:54a number, and the vast and the vast majority of the
- 10:57applications that I've actually seen are just that.
- 11:03So taking a lot of messy data of the unstructured and then trying
- 11:09to figure out some kind of a system so that that's the input
- 11:13and the output is something structured.
- 11:15Exactly. And in fact, I think the vast
- 11:19majority of use cases for LMS that actually work in production
- 11:24are are not just in comes the magic LM, in comes the magic
- 11:28agent and does everything, but rather you take the LM as an
- 11:32additional Lego brick in addition to all the other bricks
- 11:34you have and you combine them. And that's how we get out the
- 11:38value. OK, Now do you think that it's
- 11:44easier to explain or champion for AI now that it feels like
- 11:50it's more simple to grasp like that then when you were doing ML
- 11:55two years ago and you had to try to tell someone, oh, well, we're
- 11:59going to vectorize this and then we're going to matrices and all
- 12:03of that jargon. Hopefully you weren't doing that
- 12:05when you were explaining it to leadership or, or presenting
- 12:08different use cases. But now you don't really have to
- 12:12do that, right? You can speak at a different
- 12:16level. Maybe, but really the problem is
- 12:23never the technology or even being able to explain the
- 12:26technology, because if you know what you're doing, then you're
- 12:30able to explain it. But there seems just they always
- 12:34the the biggest blockers are always of two kinds, a
- 12:37organisational structure. But this can be broken down with
- 12:42sufficient will from above at least.
- 12:45And the other one is the invisible walls in people's
- 12:47heads. Because there's a fun thing I've
- 12:50observed with a variety of technologies, from bringing FX
- 12:54swaps to Wise Treasury to now LMS in customer support to a
- 12:59bunch of others, is that even if you have a team and then you
- 13:03have a which has an existing workflow that kind of works for
- 13:06them and you bring a new technology to them, which
- 13:08clearly adds value, but they have never, which they have
- 13:11never seen before. And then from the moment you
- 13:14start trying to educate them about it to the moment it
- 13:18becomes just another thing in common place.
- 13:21Minimum of two years. Wow.
- 13:23It just doesn't. It doesn't matter how hard you
- 13:25try. It just takes time for people's
- 13:28heads to adjust around this thing, along with all the other
- 13:31stuff, all the way around all the other problems I have.
- 13:33It's two years. Yeah.
- 13:35And to build those habits, to build those muscles of I'm going
- 13:38to use this instead of my traditional workflow.
- 13:41That makes sense. So if you budget for two years,
- 13:44then you set your expectations at a realistic level and if it
- 13:48happens before then maybe you get lucky.
- 13:51Yes, and generally, generally it won't.
- 13:54Like you could have the prototype out in two weeks, but
- 13:57for people to actually adjust to the fact that exists.
- 14:00This is how it works, that she's good for you.
- 14:02It's not scary. Two years.
- 14:04Yeah, and if it's more than that, it's time to start looking
- 14:08for a new job. Perhaps, Perhaps thankfully, you
- 14:12know, thankfully wise is actually one of the more in gaol
- 14:15places. So it's I have.
- 14:18I have never had good ideas blocked here.
- 14:21Well, there's plenty of ways that you're using ML and AI wise
- 14:27from the traditional fraud detection because it is a
- 14:30financial services company or it's a financial fintech
- 14:34company, I think is what you would categorise it as, right?
- 14:37And for those who don't know, it makes it really easy.
- 14:41And the reason that I love using it is because I can have money
- 14:44in the US and I live in Europe. And so it's really easy for me
- 14:48to move that money around and not have to pay exorbitant fees
- 14:55from traditional banks. And I can just juxtapose the
- 14:59differences of when I would come to Europe when I was like 19 and
- 15:0320. And so why is kind of cut that
- 15:08all out and made it really easy? So coming back to the AI and ML
- 15:13that you're using at wise, since it is finance, I imagine there's
- 15:19a lot of a fraud detection and then B maybe some are you doing
- 15:25loans? I don't think you give loans do.
- 15:27You no that we don't, but there is a lot of things.
- 15:32So absolutely, of course, fraud, detention, anti money
- 15:35laundering, the whole wide, wide area of think frame is probably
- 15:40the oldest because it's so clearly beneficial.
- 15:43And that's classic ML, so wide table of data, extra boost to
- 15:48high primes, tuning the whole thing.
- 15:50And, and of course, and that's also the area that our PR
- 15:53department is not very fond of us telling my details about.
- 15:58And then there's also understandable for good, for
- 16:01good reasons. The other one is treasury and
- 16:05treasury is what you call a trading desk in in banks because
- 16:09the flows, the people want us to transfer and always balance.
- 16:13And so you have to go to the interbank market in one way or
- 16:16the other and source the necessary currency and then
- 16:20manage the risk of holding currencies.
- 16:22Because one way of looking at wise is actually as a market
- 16:26maker to the masses. You always will always give a
- 16:29bid and ask price for any currency pair.
- 16:32So effectively we are a kind of market maker.
- 16:34But a very unusual 1 because we market maker to the masses
- 16:38rather than to other big financial institutions and we
- 16:40try to make you pass press as tight as possible as opposed to
- 16:44the banks who try to see how much they can get away with.
- 16:48But so Treasury is a lot of machine learning, trading
- 16:53estimation of flows to make sure we have cash in place.
- 16:57For example, did you know that if you try to withdraw money in
- 17:01Wise in Sri Lanka or places like with the currency control
- 17:06places, actually it's not. We Wise has to send the dollars
- 17:11to our partner bank the day before so they can arrive
- 17:13overnight and wait there safely at the partner bank.
- 17:16So then when somebody wants to withdraw money, Wise can ask the
- 17:18partner bank to please charge us the dollars and give you the
- 17:21local currency. So there is a lot going under
- 17:25the hood for this quasi instance experience.
- 17:29And then my final big area of course, or my final favourite
- 17:32area, of course, it's not, not by far not the only one is
- 17:36marketing and causal in France and all those fun and games.
- 17:40Yeah, well, and you did kind of mention before too support,
- 17:45right? Absolutely.
- 17:48I think support is comparatively young because before LLMS
- 17:53happened that it was quite hard to do because so much of the
- 17:57data is tax based and but now we have a great data science team
- 18:01in place there and they were to have some things in production
- 18:04and more is on the way. So another thing that you said
- 18:09that stuck with me and I want you to elaborate on is LLMS or
- 18:14AI shouldn't be necessarily looked at as the solution.
- 18:18It should be looked at more as one step to get to the solution
- 18:23almost. And the way that I understood it
- 18:25is we should just look at it as another step in a DAG.
- 18:32Yeah, 100%. I also, I, I find it very silly
- 18:36when people ask KGPT to add two and two and JGPT sells them as
- 18:41five and they're like, oh, AI has failed.
- 18:45It's the whole thing is like, you should think about this as
- 18:48one big Lego set and now you have a couple of extra blocks
- 18:53that you couldn't do before. Maybe the blocks can blink or
- 18:55emit sounds or whatever it is they do, but there's just one
- 19:00more addition to your Lego set and it'll it'll be sealed and
- 19:06then it reads. It gets its power from being
- 19:08combined with all the others. And I'm sure it won't be the
- 19:10last cool thing either, because I still remember that when RNNS
- 19:15arrived 10 years ago, it was exactly the same kind of hype
- 19:18wave or air and ends and neural networks will solve machine
- 19:21learning for us. And then for, and that kind of
- 19:23settles down for for, you know, eight years or so, there's
- 19:26nothing. And there's another big thing
- 19:27comes along. I'm sure that'll be another one
- 19:31now Which? Ways are you seeing both LMS or
- 19:35foundational models plus other traditional ML or just regular
- 19:43heuristics being used together? Well, so the most, the most
- 19:51obvious 1 is just LLMS being used in old school pipelines.
- 19:57Or as I mentioned, LLMS just transform data.
- 20:00For example, they give you a score of four.
- 20:04Does this, does this customer e-mail look like a complain,
- 20:08like a complaint based on the text?
- 20:09What is the likelihood? Oh, and then you add that score
- 20:13to a bunch of other data points you might have and do old school
- 20:15machine learning to classify the e-mail.
- 20:18And that is at this point this is the easiest thing to do, the
- 20:21most controllable, the safest and so also the most production
- 20:24radio for the other ones. I guess the fun part about LLMS
- 20:33is that they humanise machine learning in so many ways.
- 20:36So they they make this interface between they make this interface
- 20:41between humans and machine learning fluid.
- 20:45For example, in customer support bots, right before you had a,
- 20:48you had this text block and then you had to classify it.
- 20:51What is the customer asking about is you know, it's called
- 20:53modal vector spaces, yada yada. Now you can just ask an LLM.
- 20:58Does this in from message contain enough information to
- 21:01understand what the customer wants?
- 21:02If not, what you get what? What else should I ask the
- 21:05customer? And that's little prompt.
- 21:07And then you can ask the customer For more information
- 21:10and they'll give it to you so that you unlock this whole
- 21:13interactive potential that just wasn't there.
- 21:18And I want to talk about causal inference technology and what
- 21:24you're doing there because you said marketing and all of that
- 21:27fun stuff is really one of your passions.
- 21:31Give me the lay of the land on what you're doing, how you're
- 21:34doing it and what it looks like with MLA.
- 21:37I, I know it's, it's AB testing, right, But what else is going on
- 21:41there? Well.
- 21:42It's not just AB testing, but the trick is that the trick is
- 21:49estimating causal impacts, and that is hard.
- 21:53It's not like regular machine learning because in regular
- 21:57machine learning, for example, if you want to predict how much
- 22:01a customer will buy in the next month, then after a month you
- 22:05can see how much have they bought.
- 22:06So you have an observed true value, and then you can rate
- 22:10your prediction or the multiple prediction variance, you can
- 22:12rate which one was closest when you send.
- 22:16When you choose to send a customer e-mail Ala versus
- 22:19e-mail B, you really have no way of measuring that impact
- 22:23directly because you cannot send only e-mail A and only e-mail B
- 22:26to the same customer and compare.
- 22:29So that's quite hard. And then, unsurprisingly, people
- 22:32have built models specifically for this case, causal inference
- 22:36models. So for example, Microsoft's
- 22:38economic library is wonderful, but then again, they have half a
- 22:43dozen different models, each with its own hyperparameter
- 22:45universe, and absolutely no guidance about which one to use.
- 22:50So what we've done twice under my guidance is to find a way to
- 22:57score these. So even though you can't observe
- 23:00individual impacts, turns out if you have a whole population like
- 23:05an AB test, you can score these models out of sample.
- 23:09And once you can score out of sample, you can do model
- 23:12selection, hyperparameter tuning, all those wonderful
- 23:14autumnal things. And so now you actually have,
- 23:18even though you can't observe them directly, you have a
- 23:20verified and selected estimate of impact for every single
- 23:24customer. And then, so now you can, once
- 23:27you have that estimate, you can do fun things, right?
- 23:31You can do targeting first of all, so you can send to the
- 23:34customer the e-mail is most likely to have them do the
- 23:37action you want them to do, like click on that link.
- 23:41You can also do segmentation. You can see which parts, once
- 23:44you have that impact a customer level, you can now segment much
- 23:47cleaner because how do people do AB test segmentation now?
- 23:51They slice the whole AB test sample in little chunks and try
- 23:55to see if there's significance. But that's very, very noisy.
- 23:57That doesn't work this way. You can.
- 24:00How many customers or people do you need to have on a list in
- 24:06order for this to actually have like statistical relevance?
- 24:12So certainly as many as you have for a regular AB test is enough.
- 24:20Usually I expect it to be even smaller because now instead of
- 24:25treating in an AB test the whole customer variability, you treat
- 24:30like noise, right? You average over it.
- 24:32All you want is an average. Whereas with all these models,
- 24:36you first model customer variable, customer natural
- 24:38variability based on the customer features, what you know
- 24:41about them. Because after this he can, you
- 24:43can only model the impact on top of this.
- 24:46So now you actually treat customer variability in in the
- 24:49customer behaviour signal. And so this is also, so we
- 24:53haven't tested that extensively, but I expect we actually need
- 24:56smaller sample sizes than for a Glaber test.
- 25:00And is this what you're doing with Wise Pizza or is is why is
- 25:03pizza a little different? Why is pizza is related?
- 25:08So why is pizza is there for for finding fun segments?
- 25:12It started with growth analysis. Supposing you have this data set
- 25:16with customer segments, regions, the device they use, region
- 25:20they're in customer from from currency to currency product
- 25:24they use to any number of dimensions you might want to
- 25:26have for your customers. And then so you have like a
- 25:29million micro segments and now you want to find out my overall
- 25:34say error revenues per customer went down by 2% or went up by
- 25:4010% or from 1/4 to the next. And you want to find out which
- 25:45simple explainable segments were driving this and that's advice
- 25:49pizza does or Rick, my growth rate went down from went down by
- 25:541% from 1/4 to the next. What were the main customer
- 25:59segments explained in simple terms in terms of those
- 26:02dimensions I gave you that drove it?
- 26:04And you could also apply it in causal tune results.
- 26:06So you could also apply it on causal inference results, but
- 26:08you don't have. To do you always find segments
- 26:14that match up and that you understand, oh, it's, it's these
- 26:17people with these different features that drove whatever the
- 26:22question was whether it's an increase or decrease in revenue
- 26:26and or is it sometimes that it just is a little bit scattered
- 26:31like or or very weighted towards one or two people that don't
- 26:37really have anything in common, I guess.
- 26:41Well, in twice we're fortunate to in this sense fortunate to be
- 26:47AB to C company. So we have large, large customer
- 26:50bases and so, so sample size is not a problem.
- 26:55And this thing will always find something, right?
- 26:58Because that's machine learning. That's what machine learning
- 27:00models are built to do. You tell them to find something,
- 27:03they will find it. And then you could always just
- 27:06split your sample in half and fit it on 1/2 and then look at
- 27:09statistical significance on the other half.
- 27:11And if it's there that it's really something.
- 27:16Wow. That is so cool.
- 27:19And how do you bring that? Because wow.
- 27:24So let's say that you are answering some of these
- 27:28questions and you're finding different segments that are
- 27:31driving the reasons and you've split it in half and then you've
- 27:37recognised, OK, this, this seems to be true, right?
- 27:41Then what do you do with that information?
- 27:45Well, that's really where humans step in.
- 27:49In our case, we have So what the rest of the world calls data
- 27:53scientists, the wires calls analysts, and what the rest of
- 27:58what wires calls data scientists is more like an ML research
- 28:01engineer in the rest of the world.
- 28:05And so we have those wonderful analysts who then go in and dig
- 28:08deep into those segments. And now they don't have to go
- 28:11through little while wandering around in pivot tables looking
- 28:14for something that's out of line.
- 28:15They can clearly see these are the drivers.
- 28:17OK, now let's look at, say, iPhone users in Asia.
- 28:20What happened there? Or it's really the big tickets
- 28:24that drive the change. So let's look at the big
- 28:27tickets. What's going on there.
- 28:29But that's I think also a bigger philosophical point.
- 28:32I have exactly 0 fear the two to be replaced by algorithms.
- 28:39In fact, the more you know, the more machine learning can do
- 28:43things that are currently manual labour by data scientists, the
- 28:47more data scientists can use them and therefore add even more
- 28:51value. So the more labour replacing
- 28:53stuff like AGPD happens, the more jobs that will be for data
- 28:56scientists, not the other way around.
- 28:58Fascinating. And so you're, you're digging
- 29:01around in that data, you're trying to find insights and then
- 29:04they're presented to leadership and hopefully you're whatever
- 29:10creating a new campaign to try and target that specific segment
- 29:15or you're running a a discount or you're doing something, some
- 29:18kind of action is taken to help with that.
- 29:22Exactly. And also, of course, it wouldn't
- 29:26be 2024 if I wasn't currently working on an extended agenda
- 29:32question of this, where you run this analysis, you come up with
- 29:35those segments, and then you see whether you can source some more
- 29:38data from wikis or chat or Slack channels or any kind of internal
- 29:43information you have that would help explain it or be maybe be
- 29:46relevant. You still never fully automate
- 29:49it, but you could go a long way to.
- 29:52But you would have an interactive tool where, in
- 29:54dialogue with the machine, humans could do a much better
- 29:57job of telling the whole story, not just the numbers.
- 30:01So if I'm understanding you correctly, you're analysts are
- 30:06digging through very specific segments of users who are
- 30:12driving some question that you have.
- 30:16And let's use this example of revenue went down 1% in the last
- 30:21quarter. So let's figure out who are the
- 30:23major reasons for that and you find out that it's iPhone users
- 30:29in Asia or something along those lines.
- 30:31Analysts are digging through that data and then they can
- 30:36augment that data, that structured data with, oh, you
- 30:40know what happened, We raised the prices in Asia for XYZ
- 30:46transfers or we did something. And those analysts would not
- 30:50know that unless they had the agent bringing them extra
- 30:54context. Absolutely.
- 30:58And this is not well. So I don't want to over promise
- 31:02there's not something we have just yet.
- 31:03It's something I'm actually working on right now.
- 31:06So hopefully we'll have something rough out by end of
- 31:09year. But that's a niche that I don't
- 31:12really see occupied right now because like, let's let's ingest
- 31:17all your corporate data and put a chatbot on top kind of
- 31:20startups or a dime a dozen. Yeah, such a natural idea.
- 31:24But combining this with the qualitative analysis to do
- 31:30storytelling that's that's linked to the to what the data
- 31:34tells you, that's not really something I've seen out there.
- 31:38And so in a way, it's just it's plugging into all of your
- 31:42internal docs, your internal messaging systems, and it's
- 31:46trying to find relevant information to the data segment
- 31:51or how is the, how are you interacting with the agent?
- 31:54Is it through a chat bot? Yes, I think so.
- 31:58It's just just, it's just a chat dialogue.
- 32:01So again, this is now very much in the design stage again, but
- 32:05it's very much just a dialogue. So you have the kind of report
- 32:09with draughts and text that The thing is generating.
- 32:12And then there is a chat panel to one side telling you where
- 32:15you can say, oh, no, let's zoom into the segment or what's going
- 32:18on here. Or they make changes report this
- 32:20way because I think it has to be a dialogue because ultimately
- 32:25humans, they know what story they want to tell.
- 32:30And this has to be a story that's supported by the data.
- 32:32But potentially there are many stories that could be supported
- 32:35by the data and ultimately it's a human thing.
- 32:37Of those stories, which are, which is the one you actually
- 32:40want to focus on this time? Yeah, I also like the UX.
- 32:44Sometimes when I'm playing around with different agent chat
- 32:48bots of it will guess what question I want so I don't have
- 32:53to think as hard. And for me it's a lot easier
- 32:56just say, Oh yeah, let's see what's going on there.
- 32:59Almost like when you click on a YouTube video because the title
- 33:03entices you. So the agent comes up with like
- 33:074 questions that maybe you might want to know.
- 33:10And I've seen this done where you ask an initial question and
- 33:14then there's the follow up questions.
- 33:16That's a pretty common theme that is in agents these days or
- 33:21just in chat bots in general. And it, it feels like it would
- 33:26be very cool if you're moving around in the data and you're
- 33:31asking questions and then the agent can suggest things like,
- 33:35oh, maybe you want to know about XYZ.
- 33:39And so I like the way that you're going about that.
- 33:45And it also is is very nice to augment the capabilities and
- 33:49augment the tools that an analyst or a data scientist has
- 33:54at their fingertips to be able to tell the story that they want
- 33:58to tell. As you were saying, when you're
- 34:00building out the agents, what have been things that have been
- 34:04difficult? I am afraid it's the usual right
- 34:12prerequisites, data quality and then convincing and then get it
- 34:18working with engineering lead times for getting things into
- 34:21production. So those are but because in chat
- 34:28bot in its own is good as a toy. But for example, if you want a
- 34:32chat bot to answer customer queries, you need to have a hard
- 34:38but old school underlying taxonomy of what the possible
- 34:41customer questions you could handle are.
- 34:44And you have to distil that taxonomy and build it and expose
- 34:47it to the agent. And then the actual Asian part
- 34:50is easy. In fact, I think that's the
- 34:54that's the general theme in the whole hype around agents.
- 34:57Like it's kind of fun, but I think agents like using an agent
- 35:01in itself will be kind of written very shortly, will be
- 35:05kind of like using a database. Like, yeah, they're useful to
- 35:08add value, but they're it's not a big deal.
- 35:11It's like, oh, we have a database and we have a multi
- 35:14database application. How wonderful it's, you know,
- 35:17it's just a pattern and it's sort of it's sort of very hard
- 35:20pattern. All the whole the stuff around
- 35:22around you to make it work a hard agents as well.
- 35:25So easy. The database is not for the
- 35:32majority of people. It's not the most sexy of
- 35:35technologies. It's kind of old.
- 35:37Maybe it was back in the day, but now it is.
- 35:40Like you said, it's just the database.
- 35:43Let's the ultimate success, actually.
- 35:45Yeah, yeah. So is that the maturity of where
- 35:50it's at? So the thing that I, I'm
- 35:54wondering around agents is how are you making sure that the
- 36:03right data is not going to the wrong person or the wrong data
- 36:11is not going to the wrong person?
- 36:13I, I guess when it comes to for example, with Google Docs, you
- 36:18have a very clear sharing protocol and I'm not worried
- 36:25that somebody is going to be able to see all my Google Docs.
- 36:27But with agents, I think it's really easy to not have that
- 36:32role based access. And so the agent can now get
- 36:36into any data that it wants to even in private Slack channels
- 36:40or whatever. And then you're surfacing
- 36:43information that that analysts maybe shouldn't have access to?
- 36:49Well, that's an excellent point actually.
- 36:53And to some well on on one level we don't really have that
- 36:57problem yet because we don't have, we certainly don't have
- 37:01customer facing agents which directly output all of them.
- 37:04So all this thing is human in the loop, but and also internal
- 37:10tools, most of these things, they provide draughts which
- 37:14humans then can edit. But in the long run, actually
- 37:18the problem you address is not that difficult because when you
- 37:21the way you store things, you think about how these things
- 37:23work like you ingest, you ingest snippets from everywhere and
- 37:30then those snippets and then via some kind of rag.
- 37:34And I could go on about rag for a day, probably will be giving
- 37:37some talks and it's sue and stuff on.
- 37:41But you retrieve some of the snippets that might look
- 37:43relevant or that look like they might be relevant.
- 37:46And then you give those snippets in the prompt.
- 37:48They'll analogue with the question.
- 37:51Now there is nothing easier than to attach to those snippets
- 37:54metadata where we shall they came from and then philtre by
- 37:58that. So that's actually not a very
- 38:02hard problem, but it's an important one.
- 38:07Oh, so you're doing it within the metadata of the different
- 38:11chunks as opposed to in the database itself?
- 38:16Oh. I'm not sure how else you would
- 38:19do it because there are so many different systems and the
- 38:22permissions are granular and entangled.
- 38:25Almost all you could the best you can hope for is just is just
- 38:29flag. OK this chunk friend, these are
- 38:32the this chunk came from here. Is this person titled to the
- 38:35source yes or no? Yeah, yeah.
- 38:38Is this person in that Channel? If it's a private channel and if
- 38:42not, then make sure not to include it exactly and.
- 38:46Who could they read? Are they allowed to read this
- 38:48wiki page? And so on and so forth.
- 38:51Yeah, OK, so now tell me about Mötley Crüe.
- 38:58Mötley Crüe is fun. Basically it's the it's the
- 39:03usual nerd thing. We had a vision for with with my
- 39:07partner about what agent frameworks should be like.
- 39:12I actually started, I first started looking because I, I
- 39:15assumed there was something there would be something there
- 39:18and I looked at a bunch of them. Lung chain alumni didn't have
- 39:23much back then Crew AIA, couple of the young, a couple of the
- 39:26more more prototypey ones that were around back then.
- 39:31You didn't find anyone that looked the work quite the way I
- 39:35wanted it to. And in particular crew I came
- 39:39closest. But then what?
- 39:42But then they really wanted to have their own walled garden.
- 39:46So when I when I submitted to them APR that would allow to
- 39:50freely interpret with any kind of land chain or lama index
- 39:53agents or any other agents, they they ignore the PR Oh, wow.
- 39:59At that point I said, no, like what it's, it's a Lego set,
- 40:01right? It's my favourite metaphor for
- 40:03for this whole game. I want to mix and match.
- 40:06And so that was a starting point.
- 40:08And so now Motley Cruz core premise is you want to be able
- 40:12to mix and match any frameworks at all.
- 40:14From other Gen, Llama, index, LAN, Chain Korea, they all have
- 40:19their strength and their weaknesses, so you should be
- 40:21able to use the best tool for the job without trying to pull
- 40:23people into a log garden. And then as we tried to use it
- 40:28for things, which is the only way to make it good, we also
- 40:32started adding other patterns that I haven't seen anywhere.
- 40:36And my favourite one, for example, is a forest validation.
- 40:42Oh, So what, what, what, what normally happens when you use an
- 40:46agent with tools. For example, you have an agent
- 40:49that generates Python code. Then if you want to make sure
- 40:55that the that the Python code is that, then the agent calls a
- 40:58tool. We stress, for example, to run
- 40:59the code. And if there's any errors, it
- 41:01gives them back to the agent. And the hope is you tell the
- 41:04agent in the prompt that the agent will keep trying until the
- 41:08agent will keep trying until the code is valid, until the tool
- 41:12says you're good. However, there is no guarantee
- 41:16of doing this and the LMS are famous for doing strange things
- 41:19sometimes. So basically you're putting that
- 41:22into the prompt and help. Whereas with force validation,
- 41:26what you say is that the agent is only allowed to return result
- 41:31via the tool. And so the agent tries to call
- 41:36the tool with that say Python code.
- 41:38If the call, if it's, if the code is fine, the tool returns
- 41:41the code and if the code is not fine, it returns the reasons why
- 41:45not to the agent. The agent tries again.
- 41:48And if the agent tries to return directly to the user, the agent
- 41:51gets told no, you have to return by calling the tool, try again.
- 41:55And this way you have guarantees because then if you get anything
- 41:58at all back from the agent, you know it's been validated and you
- 42:03see this pattern, People reinventing this pattern with
- 42:06like clammy index workflows and line graph and whatnot.
- 42:09But I haven't really heard it described as a pattern
- 42:12elsewhere, strangely enough. So you're, I like the force
- 42:18validation description because it is very clear on how the
- 42:25agent is not the one that is giving you it, it's the tool.
- 42:31And by way of the tool, if you're getting it back, then you
- 42:35know that it's it's been able to go through the tool and past
- 42:38what it needs to go through. Exactly.
- 42:43OK, so and the other idea on Mötley Crüe, which is really
- 42:47cool is the and it also makes sense on the name you're using
- 42:52any framework that you want. So how does that even look?
- 42:55It's an abstraction above the lane graphs and the llama
- 42:58indexes and autogens. So right now, first of all, all
- 43:04of our well, we have wrappers for all the common agent types
- 43:08because every framework has their own agent pairing class
- 43:11and we can wrap them all, which is necessary, for example, to
- 43:15make them all support the force validation pattern, which which
- 43:20we can well search certainly LAMA index and long chain agents
- 43:25we can make support. We support the force validation
- 43:27pattern as well. Oh, they all support their
- 43:30honourable interface. So you can plug them into land
- 43:32graph as well, because land graph is actually cool.
- 43:37And so so that doesn't those are the main 2 bits.
- 43:40So you have wrappers and those wrappers also inherit from
- 43:43landfills runnable because you can say many things about
- 43:46Lancade which had not which, which had contained the word
- 43:50flag planting and similar not entirely nice words, but to some
- 43:55of the things it has is really cool.
- 43:56And Landgraf is certainly one of them.
- 43:58Yeah, yeah, excellent. Well, that's fun and that's
- 44:05fully open source, so anybody can go and play with it right
- 44:07now. Exactly, and the commitment is
- 44:10to make it truly open source so it will never be used to try and
- 44:14upsell people into stuff, or will never deliberately cripple
- 44:17it to make people pay a little more for the pay.
- 44:20Pay a little for the paid version.
- 44:22It's meant to Max be Max, and that's also why it is maximum
- 44:25compatible with everything. Like the next fun thing that
- 44:27we'll have to look at now is Anthropics Model Context
- 44:31Protocol. Oh yeah, it looks really cool.
- 44:33So we really have to support that.
- 44:35Very cool. Not there yet, but coming soon.
- 44:39And now what's causal tune? First of all, can we just take a
- 44:43a moment to note that you've been pretty busy creating a lot
- 44:48of stuff over there. We've gone through what why is
- 44:51pizza, We went through Mötley Crüe.
- 44:53Now we're going to talk about causal tune and also just
- 44:57everything in general that you're up to.
- 45:00Hats off to you all at the Wise ML and AI section of that of
- 45:07that company. Well, first of all, I've been
- 45:09very fortunate to work it twice, which is very cool with people
- 45:16doing other things in parallel outside of working hours.
- 45:20And so now I've I've been able to officially lay down my people
- 45:25leadership responsibilities and work part time and wise and
- 45:30devote the rest of my time to bring up a start up and causal
- 45:34tune is exactly the stuff I've been telling you about causal
- 45:38inference segmentation. So the idea that in marketing
- 45:42you cannot, you can extract more value from an AB test than just
- 45:46averages. In fact, you can observe the
- 45:48impact on every customer and use this for segmentation by impact,
- 45:52targeting by impact and all those wonderful things which
- 45:55until you've seen them done, you wouldn't even believe it.
- 45:59So causal tune is the causal inference with marketing, but
- 46:03it's also the segmenting piece because I know there was there
- 46:07was a few different parts that we talked about within that.
- 46:10Well, so causal Tune, it's an open source, it's a library open
- 46:13source by Wise. So we are actually using it wise
- 46:16by the way successfully with the numbers.
- 46:18So we we do see a distinct upticks in click through rates
- 46:22and such like. So causal 2 is just library for
- 46:26causal difference. So it does 2 cool things.
- 46:29Cool thing number one, it allows you estimate customer level
- 46:32impacts. Cool thing #2 it allows you to
- 46:37estimate outcomes of hypothetical treatments.
- 46:41So suppose you did, you did some kind of assignment using your,
- 46:44your causal tune targeting or just a random test even.
- 46:48And then all of a sudden you're, you know, you go, you head of
- 46:51marketing comes in and says, oh, no, you should have reused these
- 46:54rules instead. And then instead of waiting for
- 46:58another month to run another test to test those rules, it's
- 47:01actually possible you're having, for example, a past randomised
- 47:04trial result to compute with a very high degree of precision of
- 47:08what the outcome of any rule would have been on that sample.
- 47:14So if you want to test. So if you want to test ideas of
- 47:18simple targeting rules, you don't have to run a new test for
- 47:21each one. You just run a random test 1st
- 47:23and then you use that data set and get the outcomes with
- 47:27confidence intervals of any other assignment.
- 47:29You could try it. And you don't actually need to
- 47:32even be sending emails, you just run the tests on old data.
- 47:39Well, you need to have one test. You need to have one test full
- 47:44of randomised one will do perfectly and then using this
- 47:48you can estimate the you can get the average outcome of any other
- 47:52assignment or based on the same customer features that you had
- 47:56in the original test without running more tests.
- 48:00So why do people, for example, set aside randomised samples
- 48:04whether they're targeting? It's just ways of sample size
- 48:06when you can just do it exposed by math.
- 48:10Yeah. OK.
- 48:12And so now what you, you mentioned you kind of hinted at
- 48:15it, you're building a start up with this.
- 48:19What does that look like and. So very early stages.
- 48:23We hope to have something up in a couple of weeks because it's
- 48:28not just the product itself. So the technology itself has
- 48:30been tested it Wise, it works, it's been open sourced by Wise
- 48:34as well. So there is no obstacle to using
- 48:36it in the start up by anybody, including myself.
- 48:40And but now there's the whole machinery of of a SAS start up,
- 48:45you know, hosting and to use authentication and all the best
- 48:49that go into a functioning system.
- 48:52Once we get those up, we really, we really would love to have
- 48:56more people outside of wise try this out and see the benefits
- 48:59because any kind of targeting where you know something about
- 49:02the users who your target is, this is the technology with
- 49:08which you can squeeze as much information as given.
- 49:11We can do the targeting as well as it can be done giving the
- 49:14features that you have. I actually think it's pretty.
- 49:17It's pretty close to optimal. And how have you been using it?
- 49:21Is it just more for if you're running a sale or if you're
- 49:25running better rates or what are the, can you give me like an
- 49:30example of what you actually do? Because I'm not sure I fully get
- 49:35across the finish line on understanding like how that
- 49:38looks with an e-mail that I get from Wise.
- 49:43So in this particular case, the one that we have just got to
- 49:47where the where the weather test is just over and we've seen nice
- 49:50numbers come up. The wise doesn't just offer
- 49:56transfers, it offers many, many nice things.
- 49:58You have assets, you have balances, you have the card, and
- 50:02you can use the card in different ways.
- 50:04And so we have between half a dozen and dozen emails
- 50:08encouraging users to use a particular aspect of our
- 50:12offering, what we internally call the product.
- 50:17And then the measure of success are people who actually go ahead
- 50:21and not just click on the e-mail, but actually register
- 50:24and start using the that particular aspect of our
- 50:26offering within a certain time window of receiving the e-mail.
- 50:30And then the question is, now that you have 8 or 10 different
- 50:36encouragement for different festive part to choose from,
- 50:39which one do you send to this user?
- 50:41Yeah. And that's something which you
- 50:45can try naive rules, but it'll where you'll get much better
- 50:50impact if you do it with this kind of technology.
- 50:55OK, OK. Yeah, that makes sense.
- 50:59So it's like, hey, this person generally will use my use case
- 51:04because I feel like I've probably seen these emails
- 51:06before. And as I mentioned, I use wise
- 51:09they're you're looking at me and you're saying I generally
- 51:15transfer from American dollars to euros and I'm using the
- 51:21savings function or the checking function right now.
- 51:25And you know, what he might like is the credit card or the the
- 51:31card, because I have thought about that.
- 51:33And so I, I definitely have. And if an e-mail hit me in the
- 51:39right moment, I probably would end up getting it.
- 51:44Exactly. And that's that's exactly the
- 51:46kind of thing. And the nice thing is that these
- 51:49things are that now you can take into account many of the other
- 51:54things like different regions might grow differently, or
- 51:57people with different average transaction sizes might behave
- 52:00differently. You can take any kind of
- 52:02features into account. Just train your model and it
- 52:04tells you know which is the most, which is the thing that's
- 52:07most likely to produce a positive result.
- 52:09Very cool. Well, can we talk a little bit
- 52:11about organisational structures and what thoughts you have on
- 52:17those? Oh, ABS, I would love to.
- 52:23In fact, that's the big relation when I came to WISE was the
- 52:28degree of autonomy that not just a person but a team could have.
- 52:32And when I first joined the Wise Treasury, it was really a
- 52:36revelation where to be in an organisation where certainly all
- 52:41I saw around me is that nobody told anybody else what to do,
- 52:45not even your lead, which is strange when you hear about it,
- 52:50but it actually works. And so this idea of autonomous
- 52:55organisations is very close to my heart since because it's not
- 53:01just about how people behave, it's just about intent.
- 53:03It's also about how organisations are structured.
- 53:05For example, if you have a vertical IT organisation which
- 53:09everybody has to compete for, you can forget about autonomy.
- 53:13And if you have or if you have an organisation, if you have a
- 53:18team which is only regarded as a cost centre, then this team will
- 53:21penny pinch to the detriment of the rest of our organisation
- 53:24because that's her incentives. And so there is a personal and a
- 53:28structural component to it. And I've actually been working
- 53:31on a book. Let's see how well I get about
- 53:35this. So reasonably far advanced,
- 53:39hoping to bring it out early next year, but we'll see.
- 53:42Nice. And the fun part about the
- 53:45timeliness of this is that I think, and I'm not the only one
- 53:50thinking this, of course, that the, and yet in this way of AI
- 53:57will transform the way organisations are structured,
- 54:01right? If you think about it, a typical
- 54:03firm, sort of like a big firm, is structured around is like
- 54:06information flows and is information flows a hierarchical
- 54:10because that's until recently, that's the only way that humans
- 54:13knew how to deal with text data. You have middle managers making
- 54:17reports for their managers, who are making reports for their
- 54:20managers. And then many Chinese whispers
- 54:22later, the CEO thinks they know what's going on.
- 54:25Yeah, but now if you can shortcut this whole, this
- 54:30pyramid of Chinese whispers and just have AI look directly at
- 54:36all the raw data in the organisation.
- 54:39And if necessary go out and ask questions over chat when it
- 54:42doesn't know enough and then give you the answer, the right
- 54:46granularity, maybe you don't need the hierarchy.
- 54:50And so that's, that's a very, that's a very, very exciting
- 54:54thought. And there's certain space that I
- 54:56will try to be present in over the next over the next years.
- 55:00You did say something that was a question that came up time and
- 55:04time again when we did the AI Agents in production conference
- 55:07a few weeks back, which is how do you create an agent that
- 55:14understands when it does not have enough information?
- 55:18And that's a really hard problem.
- 55:20I think like you just said, because AI and you, you
- 55:24mentioned it before, like if you give AI and MLA task to find
- 55:29something, it's always going to find something, whether or not
- 55:31it actually is the thing that you're looking for, it's always
- 55:35going to find something. So it's really hard to have an
- 55:40agent understand that it does not have sufficient information
- 55:44to answer whatever the question is or whatever the report it's
- 55:48drawing up. It will.
- 55:49A lot of times that's when it defaults to hallucinating.
- 55:55That is true, but at the same time I think you know there are
- 55:59solutions for this. You have to build.
- 56:02You have to build to this from the start.
- 56:04I mean, the simplest 1 is consensus.
- 56:08If you run it several times, does it come up with the same
- 56:11answer or different answers? And if it does come up with
- 56:14different answers, then maybe it doesn't know.
- 56:17And I'm 100%. But frankly, as far as this kind
- 56:22of technology goes, I'm happy to be a fast follower.
- 56:26I'm 100% sure that smart and well paid teams at Google, Open
- 56:32the Eye, etcetera are even now working on smarter decoding
- 56:36methods to deal with this because it's such an obvious
- 56:41blind spot in LMS and I'd rather wake another quarter to quarters
- 56:45and use that to build products. Yeah.
- 56:49And it was a bit of a tangent to the actual organisational
- 56:53structures conversation that I wanted to have, but you said it
- 56:56and my mind went that way like a little dog chasing a ball.
- 57:01The organisational structures piece though for me is
- 57:05interesting because AI can imagine a lot of folks that are
- 57:10listening, including myself. They think, well, how does
- 57:13anything get done and how do real initiatives?
- 57:18Who's crafting the high level vision or the goals if nobody is
- 57:23telling anybody else what to do? Well, I think there is still
- 57:30hierarchy, it's just that the hierarchy is not coercive and
- 57:35it's just that the the point of a lead is not telling people
- 57:39what to do. It's really instead it's the
- 57:42following. Firstly, it's telling people a
- 57:45story. Why is the team here?
- 57:47What is there for in big terms? How does it fit in with the rest
- 57:50of the organisation? That's task number one.
- 57:54And task #2 is this is this is really enough for smart people
- 57:58to figure out what is most important for them to look at.
- 58:02And the other half is then clearing out of the way
- 58:05obstacles the team can deal with itself.
- 58:07So if there is an organisational problem somewhere, somewhere
- 58:10else in the organisation, some stupid process is stuck or you
- 58:14know, things happen. But then just going in there
- 58:17cleaning this up, I think those are the, the big, the two
- 58:19biggest things. And if a leader each level does
- 58:22this, and especially the storytelling part, then the
- 58:28amount of freedom that is unleashed thereby, the amount of
- 58:31creativity is astounding and it even has an economic effect.
- 58:35So when I was hiring for Wise Data science team, it was not
- 58:40uncommon to people turn down higher offers elsewhere because
- 58:44they came here for the autonomy. And the autonomy in practise
- 58:51means that I, if I was on your team, I can say, you know what
- 58:58this project, considering what our story is and why we're here
- 59:03on this team, I feel like the best way to help us move the
- 59:07needle on this project or on this team is to do this project
- 59:13and I propose something and then it gets sign off.
- 59:16Or is it just I run with it and I say hey I've already hacked
- 59:21together a little bit and now I need more resources from XYZ
- 59:25teams? I guess, and that's where I
- 59:28guess that's how seniority works in autonomous teams, because
- 59:35seniority is measured by the amount of people that you're
- 59:39able to bring along with a for your with your idea.
- 59:44So if you're really a junior and you don't really know what's
- 59:47important, then you're you're generally happy to take guidance
- 59:50and that is you progress you first.
- 59:52So you have to convince people around you that what you're
- 59:55proposing makes sense, at the very least makes enough sense
- 59:59for you to work on it. But then how you grow to be more
- 1:00:03senior is when you start saying you start convincing people that
- 1:00:06it's an important nothing for the whole team to work on it.
- 1:00:10And the more the more people you can, the more people you can
- 1:00:14engage and bring along with your storytelling, that the more the
- 1:00:17more senior you are. And then eventually titles
- 1:00:21adjust. And what about this scenario?
- 1:00:24I am very excited about working on a project like, let's just
- 1:00:31say Wise Pizza. Before Wise Pizza was a thing.
- 1:00:35I go around trying to rally the troops and it falls flat.
- 1:00:41People don't understand it. People aren't really interested
- 1:00:45in joining the cause. How long do I have to try and
- 1:00:52champion for that before it falls flat completely and I give
- 1:00:56up and I'm on to something new? Is it a matter of days, weeks,
- 1:01:01months? Or is it just something that I
- 1:01:04put on the back burner and I never truly let the dream die?
- 1:01:09Well, first of all, of course everything I say, Needless to
- 1:01:12say, is my are my opinions about how an autonomous or
- 1:01:16organisation offence around autonomy would would really
- 1:01:18work. And in any particular
- 1:01:21organisation, including wise many people would disagree
- 1:01:23that's how organisations and humans work.
- 1:01:26But in so I would say that since there is no objective standard
- 1:01:32of truth of usefulness for most people, like maybe marketing
- 1:01:37people, they increase revenue, but most people in our
- 1:01:40organisation have no direct measurable impact on their own.
- 1:01:43Then you have to bring you have to deliver enough value that
- 1:01:50makes sense to people around you.
- 1:01:54And but you'll, you'll have to have some slack to pursue things
- 1:01:58which are to pursue things which make might make no sense to
- 1:02:01them. But you have to have the more
- 1:02:04record you have of delivering things that visibly add value in
- 1:02:08a way that makes sense to others, the more slack you will,
- 1:02:10the more slack you will gradually get for doing things
- 1:02:13that might have make sense at once.
- 1:02:17But it's all, it's very much your relationship.
- 1:02:19It's a human thing. That's I guess that's the thing
- 1:02:21about autonomy, whether like it's not, you can think about
- 1:02:25like my favourite metaphor is that of a machine versus a
- 1:02:30forest, right? So many advice, so much advice
- 1:02:33on scaling and organisation centres around making it like a
- 1:02:36machine. Every role is precisely
- 1:02:38described. People are replaceable and then
- 1:02:40it can scale. Whereas autonomy centric
- 1:02:44organisations are more like gardens where things grow the
- 1:02:49way they are and they're just around each other.
- 1:02:52But it's really, oh, there is no No2, no two plants are alike,
- 1:02:56No2 humans are alike. And then you have to call you,
- 1:03:01you have to tell stories to the people around you and you and
- 1:03:05what you have, what you're doing must make sense to them.
- 1:03:09And that's and that's the main criteria.
- 1:03:12Are you familiar with permaculture and that whole
- 1:03:15movement for gardening? Which one?
- 1:03:19Permaculture. I am not oh what is it about?
- 1:03:23Talks about how and, and I'm by no means an expert, but from
- 1:03:27what I understand is is not only if you look at traditional
- 1:03:33farming and traditional gardening, you'll place all the
- 1:03:37tomatoes in a line and or maybe you'll have a whole field of
- 1:03:42corn, but this is more like, you know what goes really well with
- 1:03:46tomatoes is basil because it keeps the fruit flies away.
- 1:03:52And so you put tomato, one tomato plant and then one basil
- 1:03:57plant and one tomato plant. And so you're varying things and
- 1:04:00you put different plants together because they have a
- 1:04:04nice ecosystem or homeostasis together.
- 1:04:07And it feels like that is what you're talking about.
- 1:04:12It's, it's not only gardening and having each individual plant
- 1:04:16be an individual that grows in the way that it does.
- 1:04:19But if you can put two plants together that work very nicely
- 1:04:24together, you're going to get that combined effect and the
- 1:04:28outcome of both plants doing better.
- 1:04:32Oh this is a thank you for a lovely metaphor.
- 1:04:34In fact this is perfect because also in terms of autonomy,
- 1:04:39functional verticals are the kiss of death.
- 1:04:43So a centralised IT reporting line which overrules product
- 1:04:47centric reporting lines is the gist of death for any kind of
- 1:04:50autonomy. It's exactly this.
- 1:04:52You have to make the different specialties and proportions that
- 1:04:54allow them to do the thing that they had to do and without
- 1:04:59having without having any kind of vertical prior vertical
- 1:05:04priorities getting in the way of.
- 1:05:06Brilliant.