Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Macro Turmoil Over?📈Crypto Market Update

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Macro Turmoil Over?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Market volatility might be over and of course the tensions
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: are now starting to ease up. Today we'll break it
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: down for you and how this affects the crypto market.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barrel. Welcome back in the tech path.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Let's get going into it today. I do want to
• 0:17
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• 0:20
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• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Let's go into it today.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: I want to lead off with this right here because
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of things happening this week other than
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: what's going on in the Middle East. Say is expected
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: to announce some more bitcoin purchases. We got the Bank
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: of Japan, they're going to see a rate decision. We'll
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: see a rate decision of course this week. Also coming
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: out of chair pale US jobless claims are coming in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: on Wednesday. That's the one I'm really concerned about and
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I want to watch very closely. This could put some
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: pressure on pal But remember that the Fed interest rate
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: decision also is set to most likely hold.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: I think it's like a ninety five percent.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: China's interest rate decision is also coming in this week,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: and then we've got obviously tensions and tariff policy shifts
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: that could be happening all around the Middle East. So
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: get ready, guys. We could be in for a very
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: volatile week. One thing I would say, and this was
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: something that happened over the weekend, even within my own
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: group of people that trade on crypto and etc. And
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: some people got a little bit queasy and they started
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: to step away. In other words, they exited the market.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: And that's one of the things I'm just saying right now.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: You've got to be able to deal with these kinds
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: of volatile issues and be able to basically slide through
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: these in continue your strategy, because that's the bigger picture.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I ran the seeking talks with the US, and I
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: think that's why we've seen bitcoin coming right back to
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: one oh seven almost one oh eight. And if this
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: comes through as a potential piece deal, or at least
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: something that would lower tensions in the Middle.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: East, then this could be huge.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: And it's interesting because the market knew this was coming
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: about twelve hours ago and it started to see a
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: little bit of a correction there, including the crypto markets.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Remember there was a lot of.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: People pushing for an explosion in the Middle East. One
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: of them were kind of pushing for around a ninety
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: percent chance. But even with that, the S and P
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: would be down over fifty percent. Gold would be like,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: you know, ten thousand dollars an hours. I would agree
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: with that. Oil prices would be two hundred bucks in
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: a pail. Not necessarily what we're seeing in the markets
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: right now. Even though gold is still stabilized. Oil is
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: still coming down though after a complete reversal, and I
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: think this is something you got to pay attention to.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: There is West Texas crude after what we saw was
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: a bit of a spike from around the mid sixties
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: up above seventy dollars a barrel, And of course the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: crater is that the flow of oil is still happening
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: down under seventy bucks a barrel, and that's the magical number.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Seventy five and under is the magical number. According to
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the oil baron who I talk to all the time
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: about this, he's saying, get in the seventy five dollar
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: barrel is the way to go, because that's going to
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: be continued lower prices. Now, I want to go to
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: this clip first because this is how markets are trying
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: to trace along with what's going on geopolitically.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: We seem to be on the sidelines. I think the market.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: The reason we're seeing a positive market reaction this morning
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: is things didn't get markedly worse over the weekend. I think,
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: you know, we're the US to get involved, investors would
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: need to reconsider what's going on. But in general, markets
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: don't really follow geopolitics all that well, and I think
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: we've had obviously they're watching the oil price, and oil
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: you know, oil does watch geo politics very closely. But
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: from a stocks point of view, I think the market
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: is saying, you know what, Israel's a relatively small country.
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: Multinationals don't have much action going on in Israel enough
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: to affect their bottom lines, although many do business there
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: and around has basically been out of the world economy
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: for decades. So I think the market's saying, you know what,
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: if as long as we stay on the sidelines and
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: oil stays around here, we can manage this conflict. It
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: doesn't affect stocks that much. If the US board to
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: get involved. Different story, you know, let me phrase it differently.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: When geopolitics come into fray market, equity markets basically say what,
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: how will this affect the bottom lines of my companies?
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: And ultimately, in this case, you're not going to see
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: it too much. So if you're if you've been trade
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: basically involved, let's say in the AI trade megacap tech,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: this doesn't affect your life too much.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So I would agree on the front end of that
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: is that it is fairly contained right now. But if
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it did get out of hand, and usually it means
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: that you're going to draw in other countries. The one
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: that of course is the most concerning is China. If
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: they were to be drawn into this, then that is
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: a completely different story around this. So those are the
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: things you do have to watch out for. This is
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: something that was kind of interesting over on poly market,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: and this is in reference to a USRN nuclear deal
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. The possibility raised considerably. So if
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Trump maybe is working on the backside to try to
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: stabilize the region, this would be good in general, mainly
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: because it would keep China out of really in a
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: position where we might get into a global conflict. And
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: that's the more I think the more concerning factor as
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: we start to see these tensions rise around the world. Now,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: was the escalation priced in? I think a lot of
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: people were looking at this and saying it's going to
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: be a tit for tat type situation. They're going to strike,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: We're going to see other strikes. It is fairly zeroed
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: in on a very defined areas, so that in itself
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: does seem to be very similar to what we saw
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: with Iran earlier and also Israel earlier around some of
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: these exchanges. I want to go to this clip because
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: this will give you a model of whether or not
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the market's price ten Take a look.
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: And I think what's being priced in is a de
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: escalation from here or certainly not a significant escalation by
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: any means. In our minds, it would be more sensible
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: to price in an escalation, not because we believe that's
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: a base case, but if you look at where equities
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: are trading and the risks that can lay ahead, right,
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: it's very likely that you'll have a better opportunity to
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: buy the market in the coming months or quarters than
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: you do today.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: All right, So look at that escalation somewhat priced in.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: There will be opportunities. And that's the thing that we
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: talk about here on this channel a lot, and that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: is buying the dips, getting in anytime you see an
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: adjustment on any project stocks, whatever it might be, that
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: you feel very committed to or you have a really
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: good understanding of. That's the thing that I think a
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: lot of investors they just get a little bit skittish
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: in the sense of being able to commit or deploy capital.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: And that's something to keep an eye on. Foreign investors.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Though this is interesting. Foreigners hold twenty six trillion more
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: in US assets than Americans hold, so surely that tells
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: you something is that they understand where the balance of
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: power weighs in for the US, the imbalance has doubled
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: over the last five years. That's a continuation. I think
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: that we'll see American exceptionalism continue to play out in
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the markets.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: There is a lot behind this. Yes there's other competition,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: but you're still talking about a US global reserve. You're
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: still talking about a leader in technology. And what's really
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: changed recently is, of course, the move on accepting the
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: bold moves of blockchain. I think that's a big factor
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: going forward. If you look at this chart right here,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: this is the US market and is beyond dominant. When
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: you look at this in comparison of US net in
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: international investment positions, it continues to absolutely explode. Look at
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: that all the way back to the nineteen eighties where
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: it was almost non existent. Now, if you're an investor,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: this is good for you because most likely you're reaping
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: the benefits of all these kinds of investment volatility and
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: also injection of capital into the market. So some pretty
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: good moves out there. I think overall, the biggest event
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: of the week right now is the FMC. The rate
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: cut decision will happen. Most likely it's going to be
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: going to zoom in on that ninety seven point five
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: percent probability of no rate cuts. I agree with that
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: it's most likely going to be the case. Many people
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: worried that we were going to continue to see on
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: escalation of oil prices that may actually be disappearing. The
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: one though that I mentioned earlier, and that is the
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: job numbers. This is one to watch very closely because
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: this could have a little bit of an effect on
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Powell and how he responds, because most likely who have
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: those numbers, well, he will have those numbers come Wednesday,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: and the key is how is he going to respond
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: to those numbers. If they're going down, there's going to
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: be job loss, But if it's lowering in terms of
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: the pace of job loss, that's the question mark that
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I think Pale will be able to answer. And if
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: you look at the inflation rate right now and trueflation,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: it is starting to centralize around that two percent mark.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: And if you look at this in comparison to some
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: of the other countries, I mean, the US is actually
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: in a pretty good position. There's the UK right there,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: and then if you take a look at Argentina, which
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: has been able to really chip away over the last year,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: but in India very similar. I would say the US
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: market in terms of inflation, not necessarily the market itself.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: But the point is maybe the global conflicts and the
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: global scenarios that are playing out that create a lot
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: of this market volatility are finally coming into focused. I'm
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: going to go to another clip here because this is
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: where G seven leaders are getting ready to meet in Canada,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: and maybe this is going to be a venue to
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: get things even keel with a lot of the leaders.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Take a look Trump got in here late last night
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: into Calgary before flying over to Kenana to meet and
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: really kick off this two day summit so far, and
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: take a look at this year's G seven. A couple
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: of things. One is that five of these seven leaders
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: are fairly new to their positions. It's only Italy's Maloney
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: and Francis McCrone that are sort of the veterans here,
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: although for President Trump it is sort of, of course,
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: a return to this group. And the other thing to
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: note here is that all of the other six leaders
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: have been to the White House, have been to Washington
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: so far this year to meet with President Trump, so
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: no new meetings for the President this week at least
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: not that we know of yet, but still a fairly
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: dramatic range of issues to be discussed, trade, of course
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: being at the top of that list. As you mentioned,
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: the President spoke with reporters on his way here yesterday
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: and did say that he expects quote a few new
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: deals this week. We know he has bilateral set for example,
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: with Canada and Mexicos. We'll have to see those deals
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: have proven elusive so far, but it's one major deliverable
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: we could see.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: All right, so elusive deals, but I think in general
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Trump is after deals. One thing when you look at
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: him being a deal anchor, well, you have to kind
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: of look at some of the things he's doing himself,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: or at least his company is doing, and this is
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: one of them. This is remember Trump and Tim Cook
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: got into a little bit of a tiff, and of course,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: coming out of that, Trump launches a mobile platform including
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: possible phones. Now I don't know some of this actually
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: may be an iPhone.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: When I go to the website, which is, by the way,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: who is designing these websites?
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: This is a terrible website and.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Forty seven dollars a month. Come on, guys, you know,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: that's not a good deal. If you go over to
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: the T one phone, you can see that looks very
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: similar to an iPhone. So I'm going to guess that
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: maybe this is an iPhone rebranded and gold plated of
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: some sort. But listen, guys, you know better than that.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Go out there and get the real phones for the
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: web three community. Helium is a great one. If you
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: haven't been to Helium Mobile, check it out.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: This is a free.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Plan that you can use on one of your phones
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: out there as a secondary line or if you need
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to use it as your main line. And listen, if
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: you're a Salana user and a Solana love, go.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Over and grab the Seeker.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: You can get that one for less money as well,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: like five hundred bucks.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: So there you go.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: This is a much better deal. It is getting into
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: the new technology. I think you just have to let
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: that noise continue to be just that, and that is noise.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Trump though, is doing something that I think might actually
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: catch on, and that is his tech group has now
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: filed to create a bitcoin and an ethereum ETF. He
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: is elevated ethereum into the same ETF with bitcoin. This
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: is an interesting move. Will we see other people, other companies,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: other institutions start to maybe go this direction and combine
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: these Ethereum large addresses are also shifting. This is a
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: big deal because this will continue to push the price
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of Ether and what we're going to see in terms
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of volatility I think against bitcoin into the positive scale.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And if you look at this right now, addresses with
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: ten k to ten million in eight have collectively dumped
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: nine point four to three million in the same timeframe.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: That's one thing we're seeing that, And of course you
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: have to look at the growth of where the supply
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: shift is starting to move.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: One thing to notice though, is this right here.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Eth is now outperforming Bitcoin by almost fifteen percent, and
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: this is starting to move in the right potential, especially
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: if we start to see momentum in the market starting
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: to move with it. So be on the lookout here
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: for ethereum. My friend Evanaldo would probably tell you very
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: bullish on ETH. He's probably saying, yes, we're going to
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: see that four thousand dollars or the three thousand dollars
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: eighth come in very tightly.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Other things.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: This is Joseph Lubin responding to what's happening on Wall
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Street because Wall Street is starting to wake up to
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: the idea that there might be an ETH micro strategy. Well,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: let me explain what that is. If you look at
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee, We've shown Tom Lee very big fund manager,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: fun strat.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: You guys will recognize him.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: He's always out there on CNBC Squawkbox, you name it,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and he mentioned in a couple of things here. One
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: of course, is similar scientific they are holding eight along
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: with the comparison of what's happening with Sharpening Gaming, which
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: is one he's tweeted about consistently. And then of course
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Joseph Lubin, who is on the board of Sharpling Gaming,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: simply says Wall Street will care about one thing consistent
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: number go up, and that I think is the one
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: thing you have to watch because.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: What does EITH do.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: It yields rewards, and that is something it's almost like
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: a dividend built into this. So imagine if these strategies
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: start to play out in more of the Wall Street types.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I think Tom Lee is early and he's going to
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: get noticed very quickly. If you take a look at Aspect,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the stock they were talking about after it had a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: crater last week. Some of that was fun, but the
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: point being is it started to recover, and this is
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: a stock that is being shorted dramatically, so it completely
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: wrecked the shorts over the last day, trading at around
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: thirteen bucks right now, up considerably from about nine. So
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: nice moves on that one. The other one I'm watching,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: of course, is Ethereum, which continues its upward trend right now,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: recovering slightly right now, trading at about twenty six thirty two.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: And you've got to keep an eye on what you
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: in general, if you compare this to where activity is
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: going to start taking place some of the things I
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: am still watching in the traditional stocks.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look at.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Circle, another big spike right there. Let's take a look
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: at micro Strategy holding steady, and then look at robin Hood.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: That's robin Hood on its way to probably going to
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: be eighty five bucks again, getting very active in the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: crypto space, and I think it's paying off. And remember
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: they've got a lot of things happening very soon in
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the robin Hood ecosystem. Let me know in the comments
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: down below what you guys think is setting up for
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: a epic run. Drop them down in the comments. If
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: you're not in the Diamond Circle. Get in on that,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: and of course check me out there on X at
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: tech Path