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NFL Week 8 BEST BETS | Chiefs Favored in Denver?! · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: What would you say to me if I were to
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: make the statement that after the NFL slate is complete tomorrow,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: we will have no undefeated teams left and no winless
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: teams left? Does that sound crazy? Would you think I'm
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: insane if I said that? Well, I'll explain why I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: think that's the case. You can call me insane if
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: you want. All that and more coming up when we
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: talk about the NFL slate. slate for the week uh
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: week eight and as I've already warned you uh this
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: week already I do not like this NFL board at
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: all it's it's the worst one that I've seen this
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: season so take whatever I say with a grain of
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: salt because I don't think I have a good grasp
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: on it I'm gonna give out one play for tomorrow
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I don't I don't even know if I like it
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I like it enough to put it on my card
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: so I better like it, but this board is very,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: very hard for me. The way that I handicap, it's
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: very difficult. And it's a short board because a bunch
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: of teams on by right now, but we'll get into it.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about the NFL Week 8 slate coming up
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: after the intro.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: in your chest.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: in your hand. Now you stare at the chips like
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: something to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: Look at me now.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Hold on.
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Not tonight.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: Not now.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Hold on.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Let me pull you out. That fella fights hard.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: But he don't get the crown. hold on hold on
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: stay with me.
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: Now what's up everybody it's toad back with you with
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: toadstool sports this will be for the nfl week eight
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: board here uh we're gonna get right into it man
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: um we finally don't have a Europe game, uh, but
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: they're not over yet because we have a Europe game
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: next week in Madrid.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. So isn't that a whole lot of fun? Uh,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: we've had a couple of good NFL weeks on the show,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: giving out all my picks, uh, and in my pick
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: them pools last two weeks, I went 13 and one.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: And then last week, I think it was like nine
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: and five or something. And my bets that I gave
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: out on the show did pretty well as well. Not
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: as well as they should have. I think the 13
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: and one week, they went two and one. And last week,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: I think, um, Last week, did we go 3-0 last week?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: We might have. I forget. This week, we're already 0-1, though,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: so I've given some of it back with the stupid
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, but yeah, not a good start to a
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: week that I didn't like the look of to begin with,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: but let's get into it and see if we can
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: figure out these games here. The side plays, at least.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: The first game up, maybe the most high-scoring game of
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the week. This is a game with a really high total.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Baltimore and Buffalo. I mean, you're looking at teams that
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: could definitely score, and Buffalo especially is not good on defense.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is coming out of a bye here. So that's
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the first thing to note. The teams that are coming
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: out of byes this week are Buffalo, Jacksonville, Washington, and
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: hold on, I forget who the other team is. Let
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: me see. Oh, yeah, of course, the L.A. Chargers. Yeah,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: that's right. Oh, yeah, them. Do they exist?
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: This week, by the way, just for reference, Saints, Giants,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: 49ers and Texans are on by this week. But yes,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's coming out of a bye. So that's where I
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: kind of start looking at how to handicap this. Buffalo
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: went into the bye winning five of their first six
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: games and winning their last two games. So do we
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: consider that to be them going into the bye on
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: a good note? That is the question. Because I think
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: when teams go into the bye on a good note,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the bye can disrupt their momentum. And that may be
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: what happens to Buffalo here, kind of getting a bye
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: at maybe an inopportune time. But you could also argue, well,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: they didn't play that well against the Raiders in their
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: last game, only beating them by three. And that was
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: a win that I gave out on the show with
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: the Raiders covering that number. So you could argue that
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: maybe they will work on some things and fix some
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: things coming out of that buy. For the Baltimore side, though,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: I think there's a stronger case definitely for Baltimore because
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: for Buffalo, we're trying to figure out how negative is
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: this spot coming out of the buy, whereas for Baltimore...
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's a positive spot because they just got
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: absolutely destroyed last week by the Cincinnati Bengals, 35-13. This
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Baltimore team is not as bad as that. I think
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: this has to be a bounce-back spot for them. They're
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: getting Lamar Jackson back, and the thing that we have
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: to talk about there is, yeah, it's a reverse injured
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: player spot, and I talk about injured player theory, reverse
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: injured player theory. The reverse injured player theory basically is
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: when your star quarterback comes back, The line will move,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times it will over-adjust to account
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: for him coming back. So the line, I think, is
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: around Buffalo minus three here. Obviously, if Jackson was out,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: this line would be closer to Buffalo being a touchdown
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: favorite here, which I think that move is an overreaction.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I actually don't think Tyler Huntley is that much of
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: a drop-off, even though I know they did bad last week.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. They lost to a Cleveland
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: team that's playing a little bit better prior to that
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: in a low-scoring game. Either way, though, yes, I think
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson being back should be an upgrade, and even
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: though I do think it's going to move the line
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: too far in the direction of Baltimore here, the other
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: part of the reverse injured player theory is that, well,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: if the team is doing well without their starting quarterback,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: then they can get a little bit complacent when their
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: starter comes back, but that's not the case here, right?
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Because they did awful last week, so there's no way
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: they're going to overlook Buffalo, especially because Buffalo is, you know,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: obviously a contending team, one of the best records in football, so...
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I like Baltimore plus the points in this one. This
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: one I have a stronger read on, I think, than
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of the other games this week. I don't
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: love this one, but this one I think is better
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: than a lot of the other games here. I would
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: take the Ravens plus the points here. I think they're
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit underrated right now with their record of 4-3.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Buffalo may have their momentum slowed down coming out of
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: that bye. So yeah, Baltimore plus the points would be
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: my preference here. And The fact that they didn't really
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: do that well in those last two games with Jackson out,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: I think with him back, yeah, I mean, it should
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: give them a little bit of a boost, actually, in
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: my opinion, so that's what I would look for there.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at Cincinnati. Cincinnati, and this is at 1 p.m.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: as well on CBS, Cincinnati is coming off that blowout
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: of Baltimore, so I think it's basically a letdown spot
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: for them after that. You know, they're not going to
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: pay that much attention to the Tennessee Titans, right? I mean,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the Titans... have one win, and they're kind of selling
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: off their players now. They traded away Simmons, their best
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: defensive player. I have his jersey, by the way. Maybe
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I'll wear it on tomorrow morning's show. I don't know.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: But Tennessee traded him away, so Tennessee is selling their
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: players off and looking towards the future already. Now the
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: question with Tennessee is, is that going to hurt their
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: motivation here? When a team starts doing the fire sale thing,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: which I don't think they've done it. They haven't done
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: it as much as Indianapolis has, that's for sure. They've
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: sold off their best defensive player, though, but the question is,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: is the team still going to be motivated here and
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: try to win this game, or are they just going
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: to say, fuck it, our season's already over? I'm leaning
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: more towards the former, actually. I think Tennessee is still
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: going to actually try to win. I think this team
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: still might go out there and be trying with the
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: young guy there, Cam Ward. I don't think they want
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: to abandon him or anything like that, you know what
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I mean? So I think they're still going to try,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: and I think this does look like a pretty major
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Cincinnati here off that huge win over Baltimore.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So that's the way that I see this. I would
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: take the points with the Titans. Titans are also coming
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: up another loss, of course, and I think they could
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: have won that game. They lost at the very end
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Cleveland's been playing well, but they're not as
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: good as their record would indicate. But still, yeah, I mean,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that was a game that maybe Tennessee should have won,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: but It's not going to be a loss that they're
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: going to be hung over after, you know what I mean?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was the Cleveland Browns, right? So, yeah,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I'd prefer Tennessee plus the points in this one. It's
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of points, too. I know Cincinnati, their offense
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: could definitely put up points. Total is kind of in
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the mid-40s here, unlike, by the way, I should go
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: back to the Baltimore-Buffalo game in a minute because I
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: forgot the market read there. I'm all over the place here.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: But Cincinnati's up to a 12.5-point favorite here, I think
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: partially because of, Tennessee starting to sell some of their
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: guys off the line moved from 10 to 12 and
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: a half but it could be a little bit of
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: an overreaction at this point and anything above 10 and
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: lower than 14 is like essentially the same number in
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: football it's not that much difference so I'd lean towards
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: taking the points of the Titans here I just think
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: it's a lot of points for a spot like this
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati may just want to get in and get out
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: and look at you know look forward not you know
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: get anybody hurt their next game's against Atlanta though I
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's that big of a deal but
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: 61% of tickets 51% of the cash on Cincinnati so
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the market read is saying to fade them uh, and
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: look towards Tennessee against the public here. So that is
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the way that I would lean there. And we do have,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: hold on. We do have the Madrid game next week.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So there that's actually that game. Cincinnati and Atlanta is
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: actually the Madrid game. So, I guess maybe that makes
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: it more possible. Maybe there's a look ahead there because
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati might just want to get this game over with
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: and then prepare for going to Spain. You know what
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: I mean? So maybe that'll happen here. But yeah, I
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: would lean towards Tennessee plus the points there. And as
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: far as Baltimore Buffalo is concerned, Buffalo is a very
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: public side. 77% of the tickets and only 70% of
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the cash. Nobody wants to fade Buffalo. as a five
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and one team with a number of three, like it
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: looks pretty easy to play Buffalo. So that does kind
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: of confirm my thinking in liking the Ravens plus the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: points in that one. That total is really high though
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: in the fifties. So getting points means a little bit
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: less in a game like that. Uh, and I also
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: do like the over in that game, uh, the number
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: up to the, well, it's gone up a little bit
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: to 54 and a half. I'm not really a key
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: number there. I don't think, but the money looks like
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: it is coming in on the over, even though it
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: is public, but I just think there will be fireworks there.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson back, and he probably could have played last
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: week too. So I don't think there's going to be
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: that much of a– it's not going to be that
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: much of an issue for him to get back into
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: game shape or anything like that because he only missed
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: a couple of games. The only thing is that Buffalo's
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: rhythm might be a little bit thrown off by coming
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: out of the bye, you know what I mean? But
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I still expect a lot of offense there, and Baltimore
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: should definitely get theirs against Buffalo's bad defense. So there
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: we go. All right, and as far as taking the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: points to Tennessee there, that total's not really that high
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: in the 40s. So, you know, taking double digits in
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: the NFL, it's usually the way that I'm going to
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: look unless there's really some extreme circumstance for this. Like
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: a real reason I want to lay the double-digit points,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I usually will not want to. 1 p.m. also, but
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: on Fox, Arizona's at Dallas. I think I would lean
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: towards Arizona here. I mean, Dallas looked pretty good last week.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Everybody saw that game on, I think it was Monday night, right?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So Dallas is on a short turnaround time and they
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: beat the Philadelphia Eagles, which you may think that that's
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: not really that big of a deal now because the
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Eagles kind of sucked this year and they're all injured
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: and whatever. But what I think is that the fact
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: that Eagles are all injured, that makes that Dallas win
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: look a little bit less good. I think that it
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: makes that win less good. You know what I mean?
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: They beat like a, An Eagles team with no Jalen
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Hurts and whatever. But people, I think, are still going
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to put weight into that. Oh, the Cowboys beat the Eagles,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys might feel pretty good about that because
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the Eagles have won this division. How many years in
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: a row now? A lot, right? So I think that's
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: a big deal. The Cowboys are kind of. They get
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: that win to kind of knock Philadelphia off their pedestal,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? And these teams also hate
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: each other, Philadelphia and Dallas. Huge rivalries. That's a big win. Very, very,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I would say, satisfying win for Dallas there. And everybody
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: saw it, saw Dallas look good and put up a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: bunch of points on Monday night. So I think this
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: is a letdown spot for them. And they're not really
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: going to pay that much attention to the Cardinals. I
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: don't think even though I believe the Cardinals did beat
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Dallas in like a Monday night game last year, but
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to really care about that.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Revenge doesn't always matter. And this is a situation where
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I don't really think it does. Arizona. actually played better
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: in their game last week against Denver than it looked
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: like on the scoreboard. Um, the game was close statistically. Uh,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how they lost 30 to 16 really.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Cause there wasn't like a huge turnover margin. I don't
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: think in that game, I think it was, Arizona was
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: like minus one. I think maybe in turnovers, um, I
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: can look actually, cause I just don't want to get
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that wrong, but let me say, um, No, actually, neither
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: team had a turnover in the game. But yeah, it
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: was a close game yardage wise. So Arizona wasn't as
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: bad as it looked there. I think Arizona can compete.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean, they're they're kind of just a
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: game management type of offense. But if they can kind
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: of slow this game down somehow, they might be able
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: to kind of hang around in this one and Dallas'
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: defense is still not good. So, you know, I think
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the combination of Dallas coming off a very satisfying win
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: that everybody saw, short week, plus Dallas' very bad defense.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Cardinals in this one. Dallas,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: let me see, is getting the money, though. 53% of
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 78% of the cash on them. They're up
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: to a seven-point favorite now from six. So that line
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: has moved with Dallas up to that key number seven spot.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that that's not kind of a fake move, though.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: A lot of times the initial money will come in
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: on one side and actually intend to come in and
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: take the other side at a better number if it
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: gets to that key number. Maybe I'm going against where
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: the professional money is here. I don't know. I don't
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: really think that the professional money would be all over
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Dallas like this year. But, yeah, my situational read on
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: this is to take the points with Arizona. Although this
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: is also another high scoring, high scoring game potentially, uh,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: with another high total in the mid fifties there. And
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: that's a lot of it is because, well, both teams
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: are pretty bad defensively, but Dallas may be the worst
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: out of all the teams in the NFL. They're, they're
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: an over machine. Like they have a really good offense
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and a terrible defense. So, um, Yeah, it's a little dangerous,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: but I think I would lean towards taking the points
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: with Arizona, especially getting the full touchdown there. Also at
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: 1 p.m. on Fox, one of the biggest games of
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the day, Minnesota at Detroit in a big divisional battle here.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's still undefeated at 6-0, but you'll notice that 4-2 Detroit, well,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: they're actually favored by a field goal in this game,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: so that should tell you something. Kind of like when
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: you see in college football the ranked team versus the
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: unranked team. If the unranked team is favored, You know
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: what I mean? The odds makers are kind of hinting
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: at you about something there. They're telling you, you better
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: rethink this year because in this case, they're telling you
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: that Detroit is basically maybe even slightly the better team
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: over Minnesota here. And I actually think I probably agree
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: with that. Detroit is the way better offense. There's no
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: question about that. Minnesota is definitely the better defense. It's
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: just a question of, you know, mix those two things together,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: which one of these teams actually comes out on top. Obviously,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: you have to give Detroit something for home field here.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think they get a full three. It's the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: end of the NFL. I don't think you get a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: full three for home field anymore. So the odds makers
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: are kind of telling you Detroit is the better team.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: And I think they're maybe keeping this line a little
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: bit short too, because they kind of have to, because
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: you know that the public's going to look at this
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: and they're going to say, I'm getting points with an
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: undefeated team here with the Vikings. Public's going to lean
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: towards the Vikings here, I think. And I think the
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Vikings are going to wind up being a somewhat public
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: underdog here. And, I always warn against that when you
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: have a public underdog, I think it's a major red flag.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I like fading the public anyway, but when they're on
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: a team, that's not even the team that's supposed to win.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: According to the odds makers, big time, red flag there. Now,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the problem that I have with it is that Minnesota's
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: scheduling spot doesn't look that bad. Like they're coming off
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: a weak performance, uh, against Indy. And I gave out
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: India's a play last week on the show. They covered barely,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: but Indy could have won that game potentially. Um, Minnesota
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: snuck out of there with the win, an ugly-looking 16-10 win.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times when a team wins ugly,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I do like to back them in the next game,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times the public doesn't want to
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: back them. I think they will back Minnesota here, though,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: because they are still undefeated. But because Minnesota did have
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: that ugly game and almost lost, basically, as a favorite
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of almost a touchdown, or I think exactly a touchdown
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: pretty much, sometimes when a team does that, they will refocus.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: And I thought part of my handicap there is they
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: might be looking ahead To Detroit here. But the other
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: part of that handicap was Minnesota was coming out of
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: a bye. I'm pretty sure. And I thought that bye
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: was going to disrupt Minnesota's momentum. So it was that.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Plus I thought this Detroit game was going to be
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: way bigger. For them. So. I think it was the
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: right call. I mean, obviously we won with Indy there.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Indy could have won the game. But yeah, so a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: lot going into this. Usually when you identify a spot
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: like that and you have a favorite that you think
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: is in a bad spot and they wind up not covering,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: they do bounce back in the next game. So that's
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the issue I kind of have with wanting to fade
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Minnesota here. And Detroit's coming off kind of a bigger game.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, definitely a bigger game last week. They beat
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers last week. So Detroit, while they're
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: obviously not going to overlook Minnesota, they have to deal
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: with two huge– Divisional games in a row here. So
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the issue I have with this. Now,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: both teams are going to show up as long as
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Detroit isn't going to be, you know, both teams are
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: clearly going to be focused here. So as long as
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Detroit isn't going to be like too tired by the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: end of both these games, that would be the worry here.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: I think I have to lead to Detroit, though. I mean,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are just signaling that that's the correct side
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: by having them lay a favorite price here. And it's
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: not even a straight-up three. It's three with juice or
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: three and a half here. So they're kind of above
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: that key number there, too. So the oddsmakers, I don't
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: think they've really given you the three on this. That
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: tells me something, too, where it's actually kind of like
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: three and a half on this. So it's almost like they're...
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: like they want people to bet Minnesota here. Although we
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: do see Minnesota doesn't appear to actually be public. 63%
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: of the tickets are on Detroit. 68% of the money though.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I think the real money is definitely going to be
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: on the Lions in this one. I expected Minnesota to
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: be a public underdog and I might still classify them
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: as kind of that as long as Detroit is actually
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: getting the real money here and it's a percentage that's
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: a lot above what the ticket percentage is on them. Yeah,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: I'm going to lean to Detroit in that one. If
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: you're going to play it, I would try to get
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the three, though, on Detroit. And you can get it
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: right now. You just have to pay extra juice for it.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go up to about... minus 120 on that
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: just to avoid the key number there but maybe the
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: public will come in and take the line down a
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: little bit and be taking Minnesota tomorrow we'll see but
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: that one doesn't make the cut for me because I
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: don't really love the situation but that one's more I'm
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: leaning more towards the market read in that game I
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: would lean to Detroit in that one All right, next
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: game up is my only play, and yeah, everybody's going
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: to really like this one. This one is actually an
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: anti-public favorite, even though they're a very small favorite. You
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: want to know what I'm betting? We're going to go
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: right back and take the New York Jets again, like
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I did against the Cleveland Browns. This kind of reminds
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: me of that spot, so let's do it again. This
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: time it's against the Raiders, though, and the Raiders... have
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: a way worse defense than the Cleveland Browns do, so
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: at least there's that, but I don't like the spot
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: for the Raiders here. We're fading them two weeks in
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: a row, actually, and I know we got the win
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: last week with the Rams. Raiders got blown out against
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: the Rams, but the Raiders gave a full effort in
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: that game. They were down 28-3, and they closed the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: gap a bit and only lost 35-21, so they put
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: up what I think is a good-looking loss, so their
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: last two games look really good, right? Like, they They
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: were hanging in that game against Buffalo and only lost
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: by three. And that's why I wanted to fade them
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: in the next game. That plus the Rams were coming off,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I think, an embarrassing performance, if I remember correctly. But yeah,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: so the Raiders did that with Buffalo. Then they put
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: up a bunch of points against the Rams, too. Lost
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: a high-scoring game. So I think the public's going to
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: look at this and like those losses, right? And they're
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: also going to like that the Raiders have a better
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: record than the Jets.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: They're 3-4.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: The Jets are 2-5. So.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: The public's going to look at this and why would
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: they want to lay a point and a half with
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: the Jets, the team that looks like they have the
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: way worse offense. And they do have the worst offense.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. But their offense isn't that bad.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: It's not that much worse than the Raiders. And I
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: think the Jets have the way better defense. Raiders' defense
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: is very bad. But, yeah, the public's going to look
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: at all this. Oh, I get the team with the
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: better record, the team that just lost to these two
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: really good teams, Buffalo and the Rams, and put up
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: a bunch of points. Yeah, this Raiders team, man, they
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: should be able to win this game. That's what the
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: public is going to think. I am going to go
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: against that sentiment, even though, you know, the Raiders, they
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: faced a more difficult schedule the last four weeks. There's
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: no doubt about that. But that's also why they lost
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: all four of those games. And they did go all
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the way to the Eastern time zone for one of
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: those games. And that was by far the worst game
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: they had. They got obliterated by the New England Patriots
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: in that game. So that's not really a good sign here.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Going all the way back again to the Eastern time
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: zone again for this one. Yeah, I'm not going to
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: say they're going to get blown out this time, but
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to lose the game here. Coming
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: off this run of difficult opponents, and up next, by
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the way, they got the former Battle of the Bay
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: because it's the former Oakland Raiders. They're going up against
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the 49ers, and that's a huge game any way you
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: look at it. The 49ers are one of the best
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: teams in the entire league. That could be a definite
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: look ahead for the Raiders here. I don't see them
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: really being totally focused here. I think it's almost kind
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: of like a sandwich spot between the Rams, who are
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: still considered by many to be a Super Bowl contender,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: at least by a lot of the professional guys, to
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: be a Super Bowl contender. That was the air around
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, at least. We all know
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: they're still a good team. And then 49ers on deck,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: and you have to travel cross-country to play the New
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: York Jets. Yeah, no. We're going to fade the Raiders here.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: In this one... And I know the Raiders have done better...
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Against weaker teams... And the Jets... I do consider to
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: be a weaker team... But the Raiders... Their other wins
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: are against the Dolphins... Who the... I know... The Dolphins
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: just beat the Jets... By the way... That's going to
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: be another thing... People might look at... They might say...
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Well the Raiders... Easily beat Miami... And Miami beat the Jets...
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: So obviously the Raiders... Are going to beat the Jets... Right?
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I think that's what people are going to... Think as well...
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Because the Dolphins just beat the Jets... So people are
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: going to... The public is going to do that... Like
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: transitive thing again... that's not what you want to do
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: when you're handicapping games man you can't do that like
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: you know team a beats team b uh team b
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: beats team c so therefore team a is going to
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: beat team c nope that's not how it works man
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: uh the jets they got upset as a favorite last
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: week uh and i explained why on the show i
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: liked the dolphins in that game last week and they
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: were in my contest center i didn't give them out
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: as a play but they were in my contest center
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: we picked five games so yeah um But yes, the
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Raiders did beat Miami. They beat New Orleans only because
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: they got really lucky, and New Orleans threw the ball
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: away four times in a row in the fourth quarter.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: And they beat the Chargers, who were just not doing
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: anything right. So the Raiders, while yes, all four of
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: their losses are to pretty good teams, or for the
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: most part, really good teams, except the Patriots are, I
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: would say, good, but not great. The other teams they
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: lost to are great, I would say. But they also
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: have not beaten, I mean, they've also, yeah, Only beaten
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: teams that I think could debatably actually be worse than
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: the Jets here. And that leads me to, you know,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the other part of this handicap is the Jets got
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: to be in bounce-back mode. They lost to Miami last week,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: and I liked Miami because Miami was coming out of
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: their bye, and winless teams coming out of their bye
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: tend to do well. So I liked that for Miami
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: last week, and the Jets got caught. The Jets got
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: upset in that game. But now the Jets are staying
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: at home. This looks like it has to be a
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: bounce-back spot for them. Really embarrassing loss for the Jets
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: to the Dolphins. I don't really think they're going to
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: look ahead to the Chiefs coming up next. I think
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the spot is way worse for the Raiders here. This
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: is going to be my only play on the Sunday card.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I'm considering maybe playing the Monday game, but I haven't
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: decided if I like it enough yet. But we will
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: take the Jets in this one. I think that's the
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: best play on the Sunday board there. Swole Meister, what's up, man?
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Post-tower game moves, you think I'm doing all right here? Chargers,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I actually agree with that. I alluded to that in
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: my opener, and I tweeted that out as well. I
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: like the Chargers in that one, at least to cover
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: that one, which I'll get to that in a minute.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: By the way, one thing I forgot to mention, I apologize,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I'm all over the place, but the Minnesota-Detroit game, Minnesota
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: is one of only, I believe this is one of
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: only four, or I think this is the fifth time
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: ever that an undefeated team this far into the season
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: has been an underdog. And all of the other times,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I believe they lost and failed to cover. So the
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: history is not on Minnesota's side here. These teams that are...
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: undefeated this deep into the season and that are, and
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: that come into this game as an underdog, they've all
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: lost that game and failed to cover in Minnesota actually
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: did it once, uh, back in, I think it was
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: like the Randy Moss era Vikings, uh, actually, uh, one
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: of the, uh, one of those, uh, losses was them
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: back in that era. So, uh, the history is against
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and that one for that reason as well. Just
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: thought I'd put that out there. GH what's up, man. Um,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: You just lost a grand on a one-leg? You mean
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: just a straight bet? One-leg, that's not a parlay, man.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Or you mean you're on one-leg now because the bookies
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: came to collect and they broke your leg? Is that
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: what you mean? I don't know what you mean. Could
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: be either. All right, we're still in the 1 p.m.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: slate here. Cleveland and Pittsburgh on CBS. I think people
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: might look at this and think this is a revenge
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: game for Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh lost to Cleveland twice. earlier
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: in the season and maybe you're right i mean i
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: don't think either team is going to overlook this game
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: though you know this is a big divisional game and
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: this is for this is for the lead in the
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: nfs in the afc north cleveland is currently leading the
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: division completely insane i know uh pittsburgh is the better
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: team though which is why they're favored here um well
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: that plus they're at home but they're favored by more
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: than just home field advantage will give them um But
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: there are a lot of different things that we have
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: to consider in this game. First of all, Pittsburgh's loss
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: was in Cleveland, and we know that this has been
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: a very home-centric series between these two teams. Cleveland, I think,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: has won six straight home games against Pittsburgh. But on
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the other hand, Cleveland has lost, I think, 22 straight
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: regular season games in Pittsburgh. I'm pretty sure that's the stat.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: 22 straight regular season games, Cleveland has lost in Pittsburgh.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But they did win in the postseason, which was, I think,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: the last game for Ben Roethlisberger or whatever, where he
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: was crying on the sidelines or whatever. Baker Mayfield was
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: with Cleveland then, I believe. That was that weird COVID year,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I think 2020, 2021, whichever year it was. So Cleveland
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: did win in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Other than that,
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: they have a really, really bad history. playing in Pittsburgh.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: That being said, though, Cleveland's coming off a win over
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: the Titans. Not a great win, obviously. So I don't
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: think that game means too much for them, whereas Pittsburgh...
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: They just had to play in France. They had to
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: go over to Paris, you know, an unfamiliar kind of thing.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: They beat the Saints. They beat the American-French, the Louisiana
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: team over there. Now they're coming back. Not necessarily a
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: great win or anything, but they beat the Saints in Paris.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: And now with no bye, they're coming back from Europe.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: And we've seen how bad teams have been coming back
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: from Europe with no bye. I think they've all lost outright,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I think, including Houston last week as a big favorite.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: They were in a spot where they were returning from London,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: and they lost outright. But also a letdown spot for
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: them off of that huge win over Jacksonville, though. But
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think we can play Pittsburgh here just because
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: they're in this return home from France spot here. And
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: the return home from Europe has been awful every, every
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: single time. Jets are my best bet, yeah, for tomorrow.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: It's the only game that I'm actually going to put
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: on the card tomorrow because I actually hate this board.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Jets are the best bet. Yeah. I struggle with a
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: lot of these other games, man. I don't even know.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Like I gave leans on all these other games and
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I feel okay about all those leans that I've talked
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: about so far, but I don't even know how I
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: weigh some of those over the other. I can tell you,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: I think the professionals are definitely going to be on
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit pretty heavily tomorrow. I can tell you that. And
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: probably Baltimore based on, you know, I listened to a
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: lot of them and try to gauge what's going on
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: with them and, I think those are going to be
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: sides that get a lot of professional action, Lions and Ravens,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: and actually probably the Chargers as well, but we will see.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I do not like the Falcons. I will get to
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: that game after this one. But yes, this game, I
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: think we have to take the points with Cleveland. I
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it because their history in Pittsburgh
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: is just horrendous, but Cleveland is a little bit better.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: right now they're a good defense still and this is
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: a low total man so taking the points plus again
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I think the the biggest part of this is that
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh coming back from France I just can't trust any
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: team coming back from these Europe games right now because
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: they all lose and fail to cover so I can't
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: bet on you know that trend changing right now um
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Is Cleveland actually going to wind up getting their seventh
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: win already? And by the way, if they do that,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I believe Cleveland would be the earliest team in NFL
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: history to go over their season win total. I don't
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: think any team in NFL history has gone over their
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: full season win total in week eight. And Cleveland has
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: a chance to do that because their season win total
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: was six and a half. And they can get their
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: seventh win already, which is insane. And they might do it.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: We have 56% of tickets, 57% of the cash on Cleveland.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: They're getting 3.5 here, which has basically been where the
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: number's been all week. It was at 4 for a
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: little while, but not a huge move there. But also
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: the total really low, 38.5. I am expecting this to
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: be a grind, man, a low-scoring game. Again, that plus
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's travel spot, I would rather have the points with
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Cleveland there, but I really don't feel great about that one.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to buck all that history with
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: them being so bad in Pittsburgh in recent history. At
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: some point, they've got to break that. I don't know, man.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Atlanta and Tampa Bay... there's no way you
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: can play Atlanta this week, dude. I mean, I know
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: this is a big divisional game, uh, but they're coming
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: off beating the 49ers. Uh, the 49ers are undefeated. That
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: was a monster win for the Falcons. So I don't
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: see how you can't classify this as a letdown spot here.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: And they're going on the road for the first time
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: since week four or whatever this was. And I realized
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: they've been pretty good on the road. They have two
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: good wins, uh, against green Bay and new Orleans. And yes,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: their only road loss was without Michael Pennix. Um, So yes,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: they've been good on the road in the two games
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: with Penix, but I'm not sold, man. And in his
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: short history, he actually hasn't been that good as a
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: road quarterback. I don't want Atlanta, though, off of this
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: win over San Francisco. San Francisco's a physical team. They're
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: going to beat you up. Getting that huge win and
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: ending San Francisco's undefeated season, I just see this being
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: some sort of letdown or hangover spot for them. And
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, I mean, if you're going to overlook Tampa
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Bay at all, it's going to be when Tampa Bay's
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: 0-4 at home and they're 2-5 overall, you know what
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I mean? Although I know 0-4 at home, really, really bad.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: I get it. Like, why would you want to back
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa when they haven't won a home game yet? Well,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I mean, they haven't really been healthy.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: And one of their home losses, you know, their home
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: losses were close losses for the most part. So, you know,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I think Tampa's not quite as bad as the record
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: looks right now. And they do have Baker Mayfield back.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: And I don't really necessarily want them either, though, because...
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: They're coming off that ridiculous blowout win over Carolina, and
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: it was definitely turnover fuel. Baker Mayfield did nothing in
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: that game, although it was his return, so I would
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: say give him a little bit of slack there. Plus,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: being up huge in the game they didn't have to
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: throw the ball right they just ran the football plus
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: that was already what you want to do against Carolina
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: their run defense is awful so you just run the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: football and they can't stop it and that's what Tampa
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: did Mayfield now with a game under his belt uh
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: back you know under center here I think he should
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: have a better game in this one I believe Atlanta
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: has a much better run defense than past events I
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: believe Tampa Bay is going to be throwing the football
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: in this one I think they will have some success
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: in doing that now I know I don't want to
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: play a team off a blowout win like they had
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: against Carolina, and that was technically kind of revenge because
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Carolina wound up winning the division last year and stealing
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the division away from Tampa Bay, essentially. But do you
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: remember how that happened? Why did Carolina win the division?
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay actually beat Carolina to finish the regular season.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Why did Carolina wind up getting the division? and bouncing
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Tampa out of the playoffs? Oh yeah, it was because
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the Falcons won their last game against the Saints. So
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the Falcons were actually the team that ended Tampa Bay's
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: season last year. So I think this is actually a
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: revenge game for Tampa. even though it was indirect Atlanta's
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: win last year was the reason why Tampa got knocked
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: out of the playoffs. Uh, they needed the saints to
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: win that game. And then they would have been in
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: the playoffs instead of Carolina. So I think Tampa Bay
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: does want this game. Uh, Tampa Bay's favored by the way.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: And who's going to want to like, do you think
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: the public's going to look at this and want to
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: play Tampa Bay as a favorite, uh, at a two
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: and five record? I don't think so. I don't think
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: they're going to want to do that. So yeah, I
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: like Tampa Bay in this one. Um, 54% of the tickets,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: 62% of the cash on Tampa. So it does look
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: like the money is kind of agreeing with me here.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: The line's about two, one and a half. So it
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: is basically about a pick them. But yeah, I like
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers in this one. You're on the under in
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: the Lions game. I don't love that because I like
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Detroit in that game, and I think that the under
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: would be correlated to Minnesota in that game. I think
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: if the Lions are going to win, I think the
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: game goes over, and I think if Minnesota's going to win,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the game's going to go under. So I don't agree
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: with the under in that one. I agree with the
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Ravens and the Jets, though. But I like the Lions side,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: but I can't guarantee anything, man. Nothing is a lock.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: By the way, I updated my record here, by the way.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I counted Maryland as a loss, even though personally I
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: did find a three on it, and I told you
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: guys to wait to try to get a three. The
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: three was out there at minus 115 juice, so hopefully
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: people did get that and push, but I'll count it
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: as a loss because I didn't update it in time
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: and whatever, and I gave it a two and a half,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: so I'll put that as a loss on the record.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: I already did. It's factored in there, but yeah. Nothing
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: is a lock here, man, but I'm trying to give
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: you what I think are the strongest plays, and this
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: is a really, really weak board. I can't give you
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: three locks at all on this board. There's no way.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: I can't give you one. Nothing's a lock. But if
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: you're going to try to parlay on this board, I
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you. It's going to lose.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I don't parlay anyway. I recommend against parlays because the books,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: they want you to parlay. They never give you good
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: enough odds on the parlay. So it's negative EV every
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: time you parlay, unless it's a correlated parlay, like a
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: team and a total in the same game where they're correlated.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: But usually the book won't even let you do that. So, yeah,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm totally against parlays. I think the way
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: that you win long-term is to straight bet everything. People
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it because people want to get
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: rich quick. You know what I mean? You can't do
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: that in this– I mean, you can, but you just
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: have to get really lucky to do it. You have
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: to understand that if you do it, you're basically playing
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: the lottery. You need to get lucky. Whereas I'm trying
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: to bet where there actually is an edge. It's a grind.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: You have to do it every single day, and it's
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: really slow. And sometimes it's going badly, and you're going
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: to be losing and whatever. But long-term, if you know
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: what you're doing... And you have discipline about it. You
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: don't overbet anything, whatever. And you stick to what you're doing.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: You bet, you know, I bet the same amount on everything.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: That's just how I do it. Keep myself in check
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: there and, you know, be very selective with what I'm doing.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: That's how I do it. That's what I recommend. But,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: you know, that is, yeah. Yeah, that's what I recommend.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: I don't have anything else to say about that. Indianapolis
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: at Jacksonville, the last of the 1 p.m. games. This
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: is a tough game to figure out. Jacksonville's coming out
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: of a bye. So they're the only team this year
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: that's gotten a bye so far when having to come
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: back from London. They're the London team, though, the Jaguars.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: They played the last two weeks, actually, in London, and
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: then last week they had a bye. So Jacksonville at
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: least had that extra week to travel here. So I
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: don't think the spot is as bad here. for Jacksonville
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: here now they lost their last game in London it
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: was kind of a big divisional game crazy high scoring
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: game they lost to Houston so the question is coming
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: off that game is Jacksonville you know they had a
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: bye to recover from it but is Jacksonville still going
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: to be hung over from that that's like the question
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: here and is the travel going to really affect them
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: at all here I think obviously the answer is going
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: to be at least it's going to have less of
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: an effect because they had a bye. And you could
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: argue they went into the bye on a bad note, right?
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Because Houston had like one win at the time. So
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: that loss wasn't great for Jacksonville. So I do think
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: it's kind of more of a positive that they had
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the bye here. Now, Indianapolis, they just played pretty tough
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: last week against the Vikings. Vikings are tough defense. Indianapolis
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: could have won that game, could have pulled off the upset.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: So I think that does kind of put Indy in
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: kind of a bad spot here. And now, They might
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: be in a bad mental state because they're having the
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: biggest fire sale right now. They're selling off their players.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: They've already traded some of their guys away. They're talking
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: about how they're going to trade Jonathan Taylor. So I
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: don't know if his status is up in the air
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: for this game or not. But the line has moved to...
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: accommodate for that. Jacksonville was going to be about a
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: 7-point favorite here, and now it's 10 because Indy's getting
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: rid of all their players. It was 7.5, and now
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: it's 10. 61% of the tickets and 83% of the
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: cash on Jacksonville. So it looks like the real money
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: is also on the Jags here. I think situationally, I
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: actually do lean Jacksonville here. Again, tough spot for Indy
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: coming off that tough game where they almost pulled off
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the upset against Minnesota, and then in not doing so,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: it essentially became the dream crusher, and now they're throwing
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: their season away. So their mental state might not be
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: good here. But I would counter that by saying, well,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: when a team is dead and they're dream crushed, they're
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: still going to show up for certain games, and some
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: of those games are divisional games. And this is one
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: of those. And Jacksonville won the division last year, so
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: Indy may still give an effort here. Divisional game against
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: the team that won the division last year, and they're
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: definitely leading the division again this year, so Indy may
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: still get up for this game for that reason. I
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: don't want to lay 10 with Jacksonville. I think if
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: you're in a pick-em pool or something and it's 7.5,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I guess have at it and just pick Jacksonville and
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: just you know, be on the, you know, the, the
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: better number there, I guess, like making a numbers play,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: but at 10, I mean, I don't really, I mean,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to lay double digits here. It's tough, man. I, I,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: based on the situation, I still kind of want to
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: lean towards laying it with Jacksonville here. Um, total's a
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: little bit high in the high forties and money coming
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: in on the over a little bit. It looks like here.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: It's a tough call. It's a really tough call. I mean,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: laying double digits is not something I do in the NFL.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember a time where I have done it.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: I've probably done it before, but it's very, very rare.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to stay off this game completely, but I
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: guess I'll just slightly lean to the Jags there, just
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: looking at the situation as a whole, but it's a
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: really difficult game to figure out, and You could definitely
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: make the argument that the line is overreacting to Indy
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: selling off their players. And sometimes the team will show
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: up and of course they need to play the game. And,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: you know, once guys get out there, they don't want
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: to lose. And, you know, like they're all playing for jobs, right? Still. So,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: you know, the guys that get in there and guys
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: might be excited, like, oh, now we get a chance
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: because they sold off these other guys. You know what
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I mean? So guys that normally wouldn't get a chance
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: now do, they might be excited about it. So, you know,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: it's a tough game, tough game to figure out. Nancy,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: what's up? Happy Halloween. All right, next game up is,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: where am I at here? Best point total, Baltimore and
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Buffalo over the total, I think is the best one.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: I think that game's going to be a shootout, but
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I am worried about Buffalo coming out of a bye,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: maybe disrupting their offense a little bit. I think that game,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: the offenses have the edge on both sides in that game,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: I think. Buffalo's defense is really putrid, and both offenses
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: can put up a lot lamar jackson is also back
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: um so i would say that one um also cleveland
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: pittsburgh under like i'm saying over the highest total and
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: under the lowest total i think that that's basically the
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: way that it works it's high for a reason low
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: for a reason i think cleveland pittsburgh under makes a
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: lot of sense as well and the money is agreeing
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: with that one too um get the best number that
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: you can on those but yeah i mean I think
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: that game's going to just be a slugfest. Pittsburgh, I
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: know they have Aaron Rodgers, but they can't really throw
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: the ball anymore. They run the football a lot. Cleveland's
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: offense is no good either. So, I mean, the defenses
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: have the edge in that game. And Pittsburgh likely to
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: be running the football a lot because that's what they do.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: All right. Chargers-Rams, the Battle of L.A.
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Both teams play in the same stadium. The Rams get
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: more crowd support, though. So even if this game was
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: a home game for the Chargers, the Rams would probably
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: have more crowd support there, but their crowd support's not
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: really that good. Although I know I made the argument
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: they would have good crowd support against the Raiders on
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: the road last week. That's because the Raiders' home crowd
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: support is absolute trash. But this game, the handicap here
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: is the Chargers are winless and coming out of a bye.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: So this is the same handicap basically as Miami last week.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: When a team is winless coming out of a bye,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: history is on their side. They do well, especially this
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: late into the season. That team is going to show
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: up and try to get the win. So you're getting L.A.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: or the Chargers, excuse me, that L.A., the worst L.A.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: You're getting them as a... I'm not even going to
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: address this person in the chat, by the way, and
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: I will block them on Twitter as well. No, we
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: do not like any of those people. New Hampshire can
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: suck my dick, by the way. Anyway... And, yeah, you
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: guys can side with the people that are destroying America
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: all you want because that's what you're doing here. So, yeah,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: you can go support some young fool that has no
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: idea what the fuck he's even talking about. Eat my ass.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: That's what I have to say to you, all of you. Anyway,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: where was I at here? Yeah, Chargers coming out of
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: a bye. Winless. That's a good spot for the Chargers.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I think the bye is going to disrupt whatever momentum
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: they might have. And that's the most negative momentum possible.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: You don't have a win yet. And the Chargers have
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: been close in some of their games. They're definitely not
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: as bad as their record talent-wise. I know Justin Herbert
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: seems to be distracted by his girlfriend, Madison Beer. He's
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: got to dump her or something, man. But if you're
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: going to play this game, this is actually one of
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: the better opinions that I have on the board here.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Take the points with the Chargers in this one. The
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: public's only going to play the Rams here. There's no
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: way they're going to be on the Chargers, even though
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: the Rams are only 3-4 here. Rams looked good again
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: last week, and I gave that play out as a winner.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: I talked about why I liked the Rams there. The
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Rams are coming off that hideous loss to the Cardinals.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: The Raiders are coming off a huge performance against Buffalo.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Get the fuck out of my chat, dude. This is
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: not a political show whatsoever. It's a football show. You
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: don't know shit about politics or football, which I know
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: more about both of those than you do. Suck my dick.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: That's what I got to say to you. Anyway, the Rams. Yeah,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: they looked good last week again, so the public is
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: only going to be on them. Now, it's not a
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: terrible spot for the Rams, so I don't really want
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: to do it, but it is a very positive spot
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: for the Chargers. You're going to get value on the
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: Chargers by playing them. Rams are extremely public. 80% of
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 73% of the cash on them, so they're
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: really public with less of the money on them. Money
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: is hitting the under as well, so that is a
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: good sign for playing the underdog. And the other good
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: sign is this line opens seven, and it's been sitting
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: at six and a half all week, even though the
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: public is all over the Rams here. That should be
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: an indicator to you that.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: The actual money is holding that line down and or
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: the books are just okay with taking all of that money, right?
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: So that should indicate to you that the underdog is
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: the right play. Like you see all the public coming
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: in on the favorite there and the line not only
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: doesn't move, up above that key number seven, but it
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: moves down below it to six and a half. So
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are just okay with taking a ton.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: It's on a ticket. It's on the Rams here laying
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: less than it's touched down less than that key number. Nope.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Chargers are the right side here. Take the plus, find
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: a seven, I would say. You're probably going to get
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: the seven before the game kicks off. Yeah, find a
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: seven on this. The public will come in on this game,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: I think, strongly enough because it's NFL. I think they
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: will keep that. They'll probably get a seven on that one.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Even if maybe you have to pay a little bit
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: of juice for it, I would say do it. Next
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: game up is Kansas City and Denver, one of the
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: biggest games of the week. This game, I think I
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: disagree with the market read on this one and what
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: some of the professionals have said. The spot, I think,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: looks better for Kansas City here. Now, you might say, well,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a revenge game for Denver, right?
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Because Kansas City wrecked Denver in the opening game of
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the season. I gave that out as a play on
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: the show, so that was a winner. And, yeah, so
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: you might say, well, this is going to be revenge
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: for Denver here because of that. But I'm not so
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: sure about that. Both teams are going to show up
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: for this game. Kansas City might still have revenge because
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Denver stole the division away from them last year and
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: won both games. I think beating Denver once is probably
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: not good enough for Kansas City. We just saw Kansas
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: City look as bad as possible in front of a
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: primetime audience on Sunday night. at Seattle. And I told
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: you guys, Seattle was the right side in that game.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: That was a strong lean from me. Kansas city's offense
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: was completely shut down in that game, losing 20 to
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: three or whatever it was. So, or yeah, is that
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: what it was? I think so.
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: So why would anybody like, nobody's going to want to
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: be on the chiefs after that? Cause it looks so bad.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: And I think the only downside here is, well, first
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: of all, yeah, the revenge thing, I guess, if you
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: want to call it that because Kansas city beat Denver
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: easily in the first game. But when you lose your
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: first game of the season, um, sometimes that will hang
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: you over into the next game. I don't see it
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: here though. Kansas city. I mean, they're not going to
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: be affected by going a mile high because they go
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: there every year. Anyway, I know that my homes dominates Denver.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: He's like 15 and two against them or something now,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: but I know both of those losses are in Denver.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: I understand that. Uh, but kids still, they know how
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: to do it. They know how to deal with the
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: mile high, uh, atmosphere. They go in there. They have
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: to go in there every year. So they're more used
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: to it than any other team. Um, You know what
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: I mean? Like the teams in this division are more
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: used to it than any other teams that are outside
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: of the division. And Denver looked a lot better last
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: week coming off that nice win over the defending champ Seahawks,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: which by the way, people are going to look at
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: that too and say if Denver can beat the Seahawks
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: and the Seahawks are killed the Chiefs, well, obviously Denver's
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: going to beat the Chiefs here. But that already has
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: proven false, because the Chiefs already beat Denver once. So
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: that's not the way to handicap. And Denver looked a
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: lot better coming off of that in what looked like
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: it was probably a sandwich spot for Denver last week.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: But the problem was, If you faded Denver in that game,
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: the problem was Arizona was in a bad spot, too,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: coming off of that Rams upset. So, yeah, it was
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for both teams. Denver was able to
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: get the win, but I talked about how it was
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: misleading when I talked about Arizona earlier. Denver, they didn't
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: outgain Arizona by that much in that game. But still,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Denver looks better than Kansas City does based on these
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: recent results. I like Kansas City in this game. The
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: money doesn't seem to agree. 53% of the tickets are
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: on Kansas City. 58% of the cash on Denver. But,
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: you know, it's not really that strong of a market
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: read there. And, you know, those percentages are not huge
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: one way or the other. And Kansas City is a
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: favorite in this game. They're favored for a reason. The
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Oswegers are telling you they're the better team by enough
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: that they're actually the road favorite here. And I think
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: the public's going to look at this and not think
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: that's the case. And, yes, I know it is a
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: huge shift from... game one of the season where Kansas
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: city was, I think only a two and a half
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: point home favorite, uh, which would obviously, if that line
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: held up, obviously, uh, that would, that would, uh, switch
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: over to Denver, obviously being a favorite in this game by,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: you know, three and a half or whatever. And obviously
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: that's not what we see here, but the Ozmakers have
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: obviously had to adjust because after Kansas city's bad season
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: last year, um, They were underrated coming into this year,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: and I called that right away. So you do have
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: to adjust. Kansas City is obviously one of the better
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: teams in the league, and their rushing attack, which is
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: one of their main problems the last couple of years,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: is obviously fixed with Kenneth Walker there. Lamar, you're talking
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: about over Lamar's passing yards? I don't know. I don't
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: love that. In his first game back, I think it's
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: going to be too popular of a play. I don't
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: really love that. But then again, if you think they're
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: going to be losing the game and or it's going
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: to be a shootout, and Buffalo, they're not good on defense.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: So I see arguments both ways on that one. I'm
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: not really a props guy, though. So I don't know.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot to say about that.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: All right. New England at Miami. Now, this is a
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: situation where New England's a big road favorite here, and
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: New England tends to not do that well when they
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: go down to Miami. My instinct here is saying to
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: take the points with Miami here. New England does have
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: extra time off. They played on Thursday against the Bears,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: and they lost that game, but it was a close game,
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: so yeah, they have extra time off here, but that
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: was kind of a big game. The Bears are pretty good,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: and New England does have Green Bay and Detroit coming up,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: so they're in this NFC North sandwich, and even though
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I know that's not even their conference schedule, they still
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: might overlook a one-win Miami team, you know what I mean?
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Even with extra time off, I think they might have
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: considered that Bears game because it was prime time to
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: be a little bit bigger, and they played competitively in
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: the game. It was a good game, you know, a
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: game that came down to the wire pretty much. Second
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: straight road game, I'd prefer to have Miami here, even
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: though Miami is coming off an upset here. And I
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: don't usually like taking teams when they come off an
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: upset win, but it was the Jets. I mean, come on,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: are you really going to be overconfident after upsetting the Jets?
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think so, and the good thing for Miami
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: is they finally got a win. So as bad as
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Miami is, and they might be the worst team in
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: the league, probably they are, their rushing attack has been okay,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: and getting that first win is big. It'll give you
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: new momentum moving forward. So I think that's a good
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: thing for Miami here. So I would prefer to take
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: the points with Miami, although I will say that one
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: caveat is Drake May is really good as a favorite.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing that you're fading if you do
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: want to take Miami here is May out. He covers
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: most of the time as a favorite, so you got
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: to keep that in mind. But we are talking about
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: a touchdown favorite that New England is here in the
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: very public. 85% of tickets, 90% of the cash on them.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: And the line actually dropped off a 7.5 down to 7.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: And there's some 6.5s kind of creeping up. The 6.5,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: by the way, at one of the sharp books in Vegas, so...
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: The sharp lean does seem to be on the Miami
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: side here in this one is what that is indicating
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: to you. And again, the fact that New England is
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: that public and the books are not moving that line
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: up shows you they're okay with that. And a lot
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: of times you'll see them move it even further up
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: because they want to kill the teasers because New England
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: is going to be a popular teaser candidate. They're a
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: public touchdown favorite. It looks really easy to put them
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: in a teaser. a two-team six-point teaser and take them
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: down to just win the game looks way too easy,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: and the books are not trying to kill those teasers.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: So that tells you they're actually okay with taking those teasers.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: So that kind of tells you that taking the points
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: is the right way to look there. So my lean
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: is Miami in that one. Then we have the night
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: game on Sunday night. Philadelphia at Washington. This is a
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: brutal game, man, really, really ugly. What do we do
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: with this? I mean, Philadelphia looked terrible on Monday night
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: against Dallas. And Washington's kind of a comparable defense to
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Dallas in that both defenses are bad, so I liked
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Philly on Monday night to cover, you know, taking the
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: points because Philly was the better defense getting points, and
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: I think I'm just going to stick with that here.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: They're again the better defense getting points, and I know
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: it didn't work out against Dallas, but Washington's defense is
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: more questionable than Philly's is. Philly looked awful on Monday night,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: so you know nobody's going to want Philly here after
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: looking horrible in a primetime game like that. People basically
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: just think Philly's dead with Jalen Hurts out now and whatever.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: But they did get Barkley back, and I believe he's
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: still there. I think he stayed healthy throughout that game,
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: I think. So he has a game under his belt
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: now after coming back, so Philly's offense should at least
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: be a little bit better. Tanner McKee, quarterback, doesn't look good, but...
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: He's getting more experience as he goes, so he should
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: at least improve a little bit here. And he wasn't
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: that bad last week. And he's facing another bad defense here,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: so at least there's that. For Washington, Washington does have
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: a week off. They're coming out of a bye, but
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: I think they went into that bye on a good note.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Even though you could argue, well, how could that be
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: possible when they have one win on the season and
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: they haven't won since week three?
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: Well.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: If you remember, I gave that out as a lean
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: that people didn't really like. Washington getting the points against
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: San Francisco in that Monday night game the week before
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: their bye. And what did they do? Well, they covered
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: and they almost won the game is what they did.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: They came back against... you know, physical good 49er team.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Washington almost was able to win at the end of
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: that game. And if Washington was playing right away off
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: of that game, I would definitely fade Washington here. But
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I think the bye, even though it should help, you know,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: push that in the rear view mirror a little bit.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I still don't like this spot here for Washington, even though, yeah,
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: it's a big primetime game, divisional game. They shouldn't really
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: overlook it. They do have the Rams looming on deck,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: and the Rams still get a lot of hype here. Philly,
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: if you're ever going to overlook Philly at all, it
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: might be in a spot like this where they just
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: look so awful. And Washington's being asked to lay a
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: bunch of points here, by the way, and that's not
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: really usually what you want to do with a defense
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: as bad as theirs, even though, yes, I know it
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: worked out with Dallas last week, but I think more
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: often than not, it's not going to work out. And, yeah,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: Washington coming out of that big performance against San Francisco,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: I know with the bye in there, but... I'm going
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: to lean towards the Eagles in this one. Washington looks
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: like they are getting the money, though. 60% of tickets,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: 72% of the cash on them, and they're up from
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: a four-point favorite to a six-point favorite. So the money
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: looks like it has come in towards Washington there, but
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: I'm going to kind of disagree with that. I just
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: think we're getting, the line's just going way too far
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: against Philly. Like the, you know, like Philly's just like,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: they're at like the most down place that they can
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: be in the market right now. You know what I mean?
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: they're as undervalued as you can get pretty much in
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: the market right now, I think. And yeah, Devontae Smith
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: is still out. I mean, that's nothing new. But Barkley
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: is at least back, so at least they can run
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: the football. Being able to run the football should help
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: a guy like McKee, you know what I mean? Because
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: if they can run the football again, that takes the
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: pressure off the quarterback a bit. So Philadelphia will be
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: my lean there. Then Monday night, I'm going to talk
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: about it again on the Monday morning show. This one
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: might wind up being on my card. I like the
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Bears in this one. I mean, the Bears have extra
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: time off. They did get a nice win over New
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: England on Thursday night, but they have extra time off
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: of that. And Seattle has a short week of rest
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: here because Seattle played on Sunday night, and they looked
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: awesome on Sunday night, beating the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: 20-3 and just embarrassing them. So after that, yeah, I
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: think the spot definitely says Chicago here with the extra rest.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Problem is, I hate Chicago's defense, but they did get
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Simmons from Tennessee, so that'll help their defense, although I
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: still don't think Chicago's defense is going to be that good.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: So Seattle is definitely the better defense there. But you're
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: being asked to lay points with Seattle in a spot
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: where they have You know, they're at a rest disadvantage
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: and coming off a huge primetime game where they looked
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: as good as they could possibly look. Whereas Chicago, I
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: think we'll get a little bit less credit for beating
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: New England in, you know, kind of a back and
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: forth game. I'm going to be leaning towards Chicago on
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: the Monday night game, and the market looks like it agrees.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: 57% of the tickets on Seattle, 52% of the cash
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: on the Bears, and you'll probably get three and a
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: half at some point before that game. That one might
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: wind up getting onto my card on Monday, but we'll
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: have to see. That's going to do it. I appreciate everybody.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: My one play is the New York Jets. For tomorrow,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: I'll be back in the morning and maybe add some
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: other plays to the card in the other sports. College
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: basketball is also starting tomorrow, but Monday is where the
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: huge card is going to be. And I don't even
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: know how I'm going to do that I might have
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: to come back tomorrow night to do a college basketball
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: show because opening day, like every team plays. So I
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: might have to do that then. We'll see. But the
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Jets will be my one play for the NFL tomorrow.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Learn to tote on Twitter, learn to tote on Instagram
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: and TikTok. Like, subscribe to the channel here, obviously. If
• 59:39
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• 59:43
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• 59:47
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• 59:49
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• 59:52
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• 59:56
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• 1:00:05
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• 1:00:08
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• 1:00:11
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• 1:00:15
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• 1:00:19
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• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Losercast every Tuesday night. That is going to do it.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. GH, Nancy, thanks for hanging out. Swolemeister,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it, everybody. Peace for now.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: Let somebody know you do not have to.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: Lose this round alone. Hold on, hold.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: On, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: On Let me pull you.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: Out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo