Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Wiesemeyer | Grisafi

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Wiesemeyer | Grisafi · AG Bull

• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: We won't keep you long today.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna try and stay on point and try equally hard to keep my guests on point.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: To that end, I've narrowed my focus slightly to give you the straight scoop on Diesel from Jim Wiesmeyer, and then we'll check in with Tommy G for a double scoop of market thoughts.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson here with you.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have everyone aboard.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: It's Friday, Friday, finally September 18, 2026.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome everyone to the show.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: Good to see you.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you along.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: Some big topics to cover today, and we're gonna try and keep it keep it enclosed within a short period of time.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see how we do.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: I do have my my official Ag Bull egg timer at the ready within arm's reach, as always, and I'm not afraid to use it.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Weesmeyer to talk Diesel and of course the one and only Tommy G to hit us with a little bit of market perspective.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: Expert market perspective, I dare say.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Before we get too far, allow me to direct you to AgBull.com where you can maximize your chance of success with AgBull Intel.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: Take the markets by the horns with Agbol.com.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Visit Agbol.com today and sneak peek to the conversation with Jim.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: Jim's offering a little sugar over at Agbol.com.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: If you're interested in that, I'll tell you how you can pick up an article from Jim.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: We'll send it straight out to you from straight from the heart from Jim Weesmeyer.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get into the news here.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: Private exporters report the sale of 111,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China in the 26-27 marketing year.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: Been a little quiet on the daily export sales of late.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's it's good to see China stepping in there.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: And I do wonder, you know, we got the big summit coming up with uh presidents Trump and President Xi.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: It may have something to do with it, or maybe they just need beans.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's hard to tell.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: Hard to tell.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to the tail of the ticker where corn was mildly lower.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's to start the day's session, but winter wheat and soybean futures quickly declined, double digits.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: Cattle futures mostly lower, with deferred feeders and nearby lean hogs working tepidly higher after the open of day trade.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Rounding into the lunch hour, soybeans once again bounced off 13 bucks even to come off session lows.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: Corn and wheat were also stabilizing just off the day's lows.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: This is right around lunchtime.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: Livestock futures lower across the board by then.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: And incidentally, I don't know if you caught it or not.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: On Monday, I spoke with Chris Winward from Swift Trading.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, this was Monday, and we had bounced off of 1290 something.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't even recall what it what it was during that day.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: And uh I asked him specifically, we we closed at 1304 or something like that by the by the end of Monday.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I asked him, I said, can we consider this a rejection of a 12 handle on November soybeans at least for now?
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: And he he confirmed without hesitation that indeed, at least for now, we could consider Monday's price action as a rejection of uh life below 13 in the November soybeans.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: And and here we are, session low in the November beans was was right at 13 bucks.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: So double confirmation, I guess.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: That feels like double confirmation to me.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: You know what?
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: Shout out to Chris Winward.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: He was right all along.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's let's browse over the settlements before we get to news.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: I've got December corn 527 and one half its settlement.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: That's down three cents on the day.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: Novi beans at 13.03 and one half, down actually 16 and one quarter cents on the day.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: As I said, the session low today in the November soybeans was 13 bucks even, straight up 13.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean meal lower today, soybean oil lower as well.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Over to your winter wheats, December Chicago wheat, 714 and a quarter at settlement.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: That one's down 12 and three quarters, and your KC wheat at 783 and three quarters, down 10 and three-quarters.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Looking a little further out into the KC weeds, the deferred contracts, you know, look out to the July.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: We're only down six and a half cents.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: We'll we'll get a decent market wrap-up from Tommy Grassofi coming up later on in the program today.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go over to the cattles where I've got uh October feeder cattle settling at 323.50, down 87.5 cents on the day.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: Your December fat cattle at 216.62 and a half, up 37.1.5.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: Further out, the April was lower, but the first three contracts higher in the fat cattle today, the February up just seven and a half.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: And here's your Lean Hogs, the D's at 68.55, down$1.05, your October at 78.10, down 80 cents on the day.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: Before I bring in Jim Wiesmeyer for a discussion about diesel and the related woes there, let me hit you with some news items here.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: Agriculture groups broadly welcomed Senate Ag Committee approval of the Agricultural Act of 2026, calling it a key step toward enacting a long-delayed five-year farm bill.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: Long-delayed is the key there.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture also endorsed the legislation, citing the need for a bipartisan farm bill to address rising input costs, weather-related losses, trade challenges, and rural economic stability.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Democrats insisted that they indeed do want a farm bill to pass.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: Nonetheless, all still voted no, as Republicans with Mitch McConnell back at work had the 12 votes needed to prevail.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: In other news, respondents to the 2022 Census of Agriculture were asked to report the amount of their farm acreage that was drained by tile.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: I got some tile guys I'd like to get on the show here before too long.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: In a week or two, we'll see if we can we can get them nailed down in the schedule.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: But from 2012 to 2022, hundreds of counties across the continental United States increased the number of acres covered by drainage tile.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: The most substantial increases took place in counties located in northern latitudes of the Midwest and the Northeast.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: Areas of notable increases included eastern South Dakota, southern and western Minnesota, and eastern Wisconsin.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yesterday, Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the creation of USDA's stand-up program, which would provide up to$50 million to help states join or expand federal-state meat inspection programs through the Cooperative Interstate Shipping Program.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: Persistent labor challenges in the processing sector continue to create challenges and uncertainty around efforts to diversify processing options for producers around the country.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: The National Cattlemen's Beef Association noted that the announcement does include funding, but structural changes need to happen within the program to help support participation from additional states.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: You might remember on yesterday's show, I uh mentioned gas buddies Patrick Dehan, senior petroleum analyst.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: He he was talking about the pain at the pump.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: He was talking to our to our good friend Jesse Allen there.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: Shout out to Jesse Allen.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: But he said uh quote, gasoline and diesel prices are going to continue to advance.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Diesel could hit even$650 or$710.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: He says, quote, I don't have a crystal ball.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how much worse it's going to get or what new escalations could look like.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: But there's just really nothing that looks good in the market right now.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have to tell you diesel is skyrocketing.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: Harvest is is kind of coming at a bad time to have high diesel prices.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to, we're going to get the straight scoop from Jim Weismeyer.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: We'll find out how we got here, how soon we can expect, uh, maybe some relief, if at all.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: You know what?
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: Before we do, let's uh let's hear from our sponsors really quick.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: Our sponsor today, plus 500.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: We use plus 500 T4 software every single day for real-time quotes and a host of dandy features.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: Plus 500, thanks to Plus500.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, let's bring in Jim Weismeyer from Weismeyer's Perspectives.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, you're out there on the DC beat.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: You keep all so well informed.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: We really appreciate it.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: I I wish that I had better, better, shinier news to ask you about, but you you just just as we were getting ready to record here on Friday afternoon, you put out a headline that just screams what I wanted to talk to you about.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: The headline goes a little something like this diesel shock hits harvest, six dollar plus fuel, one hundred dollar crude, and a twenty-two billion dollar farm fuel bill.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: Before we get to untangling all that, can you can you can you talk about diesel prices with us?
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_01: Because there's a there's a bit of a disparity, as I understand, between on highway diesel and good old-fashioned Ruby Red.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the show, Jim.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: Take it.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the national on highway diesel averaged almost$6.29 per gallon September the 14th.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's up 31 and a half cents in a week and up nearly 70% from a year earlier.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: But what many are not reporting is farm diesel, farm diesel jumped even faster.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: It averaged$5.45 per gallon September the 4th versus a little over$3 a year earlier.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's about an 80% increase, despite Davis's general exemption from the federal highway fuel tax.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a lot there.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now, why is all this going on?
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Global and U.S.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: considerations, the Strait of Harmuz closure, the Houthi attacks affecting the Red Sea infrastructure and war-related limits on Russian refinery refining are pushing crude oil and diesel prices higher.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: So this is connecting the dots here.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Crude oil, the October US crude settled at almost uh let's call it$102.50 on September the 16th.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: That was roughly 14% from September 1.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: The tight refining capacity and fuel supplies tight, that's keeping diesel elevated even when crude prices retreat.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why we have a difference between crude and diesel.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: Inventories, we've talked about that in the past.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: dissellate stocks are down about 14%.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: And those low inventories are increasing vulnerability to refinery outages and stronger demand.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what happened earlier this week when Juliet uh went down the plant, but they've they've restarted or attempted to restart.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: ExxonMobil restored power to the 275,000 barrel per day Illinois refinery, but that still remained offline as of the last time I checked today.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: Sources expect normal service could return by week's end, meaning this weekend, but Exxon has not confirmed a restart date.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the potential relief for Midwest harvest?
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: Restarting Joliet would ease the regional gasoline and diesel supply pressure in that area, and it could soften you know Midwest diesel premiums, but power restoration alone does not add fuel supply.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: So relief depends on units returning to production.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: Another one on the global side, uh Davis, is the good news finally.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: We have some good news for diesel supplies is China.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: Their August diesel exports rose a little over 42% from a year earlier.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's the highest since March 2024.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's after Beijing eased export restrictions.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: Total refined fuel exports increased 12.7%.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Chinese exports could ease the price pressure.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: So additional supplies could and should reduce global diesel refining margins and competition for fuel available to U.S.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: buyers.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: But again, unusually tight distillate inventories mean this is just potential relief rather than a return to normal supplies.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: So US there's otherwise California, you think we're you you think the Midwest is bad.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: They reached$8.35 per gallon September 17th, you know, and that's a almost$2 above the national average.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a whole host of reasons why California's up there.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: Taxes, refining policies, it's called California.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: So let me ask you this.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: Let's back up just a little bit.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: The Juliet refinery, how long has that been out?
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: And as I understand it, there was there was weather involved with this one.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: Is that right?
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it was.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: And it it was out a few days, and it's still not back, at least officially.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: Again, the last time I checked, that's expected to return to service by week's end.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: But that tells you the sensitivity of any down because we're so tight on on inventory and the the need that that that that's why these things have added significance, and that's why I filed a you know special report on it.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: But farmers know this the fuel, the farm fuel bill, USDA projected fuel and oil expenses are up nearly 30% above 2025.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: You know, what's that?
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: An increase?
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Almost five billion dollars, and higher diesel costs is affecting fieldwork irrigation, transportation to elevators, processors, etc.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: But Saudi Saudi supply relief looks complete, so that may help a little bit.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: But here's some breaking news.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says that to expect uh her to announce measures addressing high diesel cost in the coming weeks.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: I have no idea what they're up to and what they can do.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think they're gonna be very limited, but that's what she says.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: So uh that you know the traditional we're from government and help is on the way, okay.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, at the uh at the very beginning, I offered the uh good folks a little sugar.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: I know that you uh you've got a heart to to educate, to inform, and to journalize.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: You just you just can't shut it off.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: You biofuels explained why Washington's big promises haven't reached the soybean market yet.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: And viewers, if if you'd like to get a hold of this uh absolutely free, go to Agbol.com, hit the comments section, and let them let us know that you would like uh Jim's article, and we'll send it to you free of charge.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, I've I've got about a minute to spare here.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: Highlight what's what's in there, what can we expect?
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's it's explaining the 45C program is very complex.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: So a number of traders who are smart told me, hey, I need a sheet sheet.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: What in the heck's going on here?
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: And why hasn't this affected more soybean oil?
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: That uh gets involved in this, but we also point out of how, believe it or not, manure is going to be a favorite product for the coming 45Z program once it's fully implemented.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: So we have the market impact.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: We try to explain in English, okay, almost like a uh uh 45Z for dummies, if you will, of what the 45Z program is all about.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what we're here to do.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Weissmeyer, thank you for your perspective on diesel.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: Keep us posted.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_01: I know that you will, but uh, it's great to talk to you, buddy.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Weissmeyer, everyone.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, I'm I'm looking forward to the conversation with Tommy Grassofi.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to cover some markets and you know, just get his perspective because he's got such good perspective on all of this.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: The Miyagi of Markets, Tommy Grassofi, coming up right after this quick shout-out to our sponsor.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let me tell you about Trade the News.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: We use Trade the News every day for news we can use.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: Me and my whole squad rely on trade the news.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's trade the news.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, it gives me great joy to bring in the man himself.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think I billed him as the markets Miyagi, Tommy Grasafi, all the way from Music City, Nashville, Tennessee.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: How you doing, buddy?
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: I was in that chair just uh just a week ago.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going?
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: I hope I like this right.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, no, you're right.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_02: You tilted the camera down.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_02: I lost five pounds.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate the uh pointers here, but I I gotta be honest with you, I'm glad the markets are closed.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_02: It's fun to be here in Nashville.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: The whole family's down.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_02: We just had a cat-on feed report come out with some prizes, surprises.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_02: And the uh I will say it was one of the quietest days in months when it comes to the old Ag Bull.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_02: Phone wasn't ringing.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_02: That means farmers are out in the field and they aren't really paying much attention to the markets, and a lot of the trading activity has really slowed down.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I I want to start here because uh I sent out a shout-out to our good friend Chris Winward from Swift Trading, who called it on Monday.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: He was calling 13 bucks in the November soybeans a line in the sand, and that the dip during the Monday session down into 12 handle territory, and then the rejection, he called it a rejection, and here we are once again, bouncing off 13 on session lows on the November soybeans today.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: Didn't exactly scream higher after that, but uh but would you agree?
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: Have we rejected life below 13 in the November soybeans?
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Davis, I can tell you no one's been rejected by so many people as much as I have.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_02: So I could probably be an expert on that.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_02: Whether we're 1295, 13, 1305, we're maintaining these levels.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_02: If we trade below 13 for a few days, it's not the end of the world.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_02: More though, on corn, if corn gets below 530, goes to 525, and stays there for a few days, we'll actually start thinking the opposite if corn's just not doing well rallying at this phase.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_02: But back to beans.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_02: Over the weekend, we're gonna have a meeting.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_02: The powers to be in the U.S.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_02: and Chinese power officials are gonna get together.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_02: The meeting with Trump next week and China's present, that's more of a kumbaya, shake hands, take pictures, let me show you this new ballroom I'm building.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_02: But the deal should be cut pretty much.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_02: I think if my uh spidey senses are right, we may have some major announcements over the weekend.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_02: Now, I do feel the market's priced in some really positive news and beans.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_02: So flip it to the other side, put your risk manager hat on.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_02: What if we can't exactly strike a deal with a bunch of soybeans?
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: Or what if they include buying some wheat, buying some beef, some pork, some corn?
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_02: It could really mix things up, maybe even a little cotton.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_02: Who knows?
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_02: We have a lot of great commodities here in the United States that are at affordable prices.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_02: But the big question is can they afford to ship them around the world with 650 D?
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_02: So that's it, that's a real sticky point there, Davis.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_02: So watch out for back-end demand loss on exports just because the overall cost is so high.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: Talk to our wheat growers out there.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: You know that I've been concerned about wheat demand, and there is there is an underlying potential for demand for U.S.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: wheat out there abroad.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_01: However, I maintain that that we're just we're just priced too high.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, maybe local basis is a little bit different.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_01: But if I'm looking at just flat futures prices, the December, you know, at 714, it it seems like wheat's kind of have some work to do here.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: And it feels like maybe that work needs to be the downside to fire up a little bit of export business.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_01: Your thoughts?
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_02: Well, they're growing wheat in other places in the world.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_02: We know France had a horrible crop.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_02: They're growing a good Australian wheat crop.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_02: One of the things I'm keeping an eye on is this continued fighting, major fighting and escalation between Russia and Ukraine.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_02: They have wheat in Russia, but they also have a diesel problem and a shipping problem and a port problem.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_02: Both could be said for Ukraine.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_02: Now, of course, Ukraine will, you know, the the the fighting and the amount of grain that's just been stuck there is unbelievable.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_02: The question is, when will they start shipping?
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_02: And now they're doing serious damage to ports and ships, and this looks like a much bigger project or not project, but a problem, right?
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_02: And so looking down the pipe, if we're going to get some demand in wheat, it'll it'll come at the beginning of the year.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_02: And we have plenty of high quality wheat here.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_02: We would just love to sell, but we got to stay competitive.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_02: When you think like a world buyer, you just don't go buy something from someone and pay too much because they're nice people, right?
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_02: So the math needs to start math in here on domestic wheat.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, maybe a little lower prices would spark something up.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_02: I also think prices are depressed in Russia on the interior of wheat, but they can't get it out.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_02: So are we really are wheat stocks super tight or is it just misplaced?
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we'll see.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_02: We'll see how much what a final bushel's worth.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_02: There is both an upside and downside story here in the wheat.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_02: I think it could go up a lot more than it could go down, though, Davis.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: Let me ask you this you've been, if I'm not mistaken, you've been in in North Dakota for uh for a couple of days at your podcast.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Cast studio up there.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_01: What's what's the word on the street up north?
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_02: Trouble up north, low corn yields, low bean yields, okay wheat, but not not above average by any means, just average.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_02: Horrible edible crop and a little optimism in canola and some optimism in sunflowers.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_02: Those two crops did a little better with the uh lack of rain and heat.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_02: The sunflowers do very well.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_02: Not crops we talk about in ice states, you know.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_02: Occasionally you see a sunflower plot plot, but that's just where the kids go take engagement photos and stuff like that.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_02: But up north, they grow a lot of different things.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_02: And those very things we grow in North Dakota are the same things.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_02: They can grow in that very fertile soil of Ukraine.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_02: So if something bad happens to Ukraine, that's really good in North Dakota.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_02: One thing to note normally this time of year, the basis, the difference between the cash and futures is usually super wide.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_02: We've said we've had some hot bids in basis here on quick ship bushels right off the combine.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_02: And the end user is very smart, very intelligent.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_02: There's a little book of business building in the PNW.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_02: The end user is going to have a hard time getting a handle on beans here in North Dakota because because the yields are so much lower and the North Dakota farmer has so much space, they're going to be able to tuck away their crop and hold on to it and hope for higher prices, which could mean basis appreciation, Davis.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to give you about 30 seconds on this one and then we'll move on.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_01: Looks like some pressure on bond yields today.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: Any thoughts?
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we had the Fed rate cut 0.25.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_02: The Fed works independently of the United States government and hurtful true social posts.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_02: The Fed's doing its job.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_02: We've had elevated energy prices for too long, and it's really starting to affect the consumer, and it's inflationary.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_02: By them raising rates, it won't make oil come down.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_02: But it, you know, a dollar to borrow a dollar costs more than it did a few days ago, and that that's affecting things.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_02: Bond yields did go lower, but we're going to finish the week with the tenure, right around 5%.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_02: That sounds the alarms for cities like Nashville or just whatever city you good folks live in.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_02: Nashville market is soft as it's been ever.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_02: There are way more homes and condos for sale than there are buyers to buy them, which means the price is coming down.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_02: So get your bid hat out if you're looking to buy some real estate cheaper, except for how do you sell the home or condo you own now?
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_02: That's the conundrum, Davis, in the real estate market.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy, for our podcast watchers and viewers, I want to continue the conversation, but we're going to cut the TV audience loose here.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for watching, everybody.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: It's AgSquawk.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, buddy.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, Tommy, let's let's keep going here just just a little bit.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: Looks like stocks.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm looking at the Nasdaq here.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: The Nasdaq and the SP, not far from unchanged, but at least in positive territory there.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: We got the Dow under some slight pressure.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: What are your thoughts on the equities market here?
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: Is this more interest rate sort of finagling here, manifesting in the stocks?
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_02: The equities market is just a forever optimist.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_02: They could take good bad news and digest it.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_02: We sold off pretty hard on the day they cut rates.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_02: We bounced back hard on Thursday.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_02: We've been mixed here on Friday.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_02: Light data day.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_02: No breaking news, but you're starting to see again the consumer struggle.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_02: There was a headline that said Wendy's filed for chapter 11.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_02: I don't believe it's the whole company.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_02: I actually believe it's a franchise that owns about 320 Wendy stores.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: But you talk about the higher price of beef and you talk about passing that on to the consumer.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_02: I still think, Davis, when it comes to the hotel or restaurant industry, that a lot of people are still in those COVID habits of eating at home, saving money, and picking and choosing their battles when it comes to spending a dollar.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_02: But a lot of the growth, when you see the Nasdaq up, this is this huge AI movement.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_02: It's not going to go away just because someone's mad that they tore up some farmland and build a data center.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: That doesn't, you hate doesn't make stock markets go down.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_02: Optimism and earnings make them go up.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_02: And folks are really into taking a little bit of money out of their paycheck every week, every month, and putting it in the market.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_02: So there's always an influx of uh market money coming in.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_02: On a side note, we did have legendary investor Warren Buffett officially, officially retire.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_02: And as he said, I quote, Father Time gets us all.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: Hasn't he retired once before, though?
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like I remember reporting that he had retired.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: Was that just the uh pseudo-retirement?
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: Just partial?
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: He stepped down and then he stepped down from the step down.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_02: So pretty much he should be on the ground now.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_02: He shouldn't have to uh step down anymore.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: So it's two steps into retirement, one step back.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure where that where that leaves us.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure at all.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_02: With good Friday music, I hope.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_02: Do we have some Friday music?
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: We've got a little Friday music because uh I do have that Friday feeling.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_01: Ah it was hot when I was in Nashville.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's hot in Kansas City, bro.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_02: Here, brother.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: We're having record, record, record heat.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I'm sitting at the Eggville Podcast Studios in beautiful downtown Nashville.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_02: If you ever make it down here, look us up.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_02: I'm overlooking the Ryman Theater and I can hear the boom, boom, bang, bang drums in guitar off of Broadway.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_02: But yes, 95 degrees.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_02: Titans Eagles game here at home on Sunday, looking for temperatures of 99.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_02: And of course, the Vanderbilt, I think their Commodores are in town here playing one of the Carolina schools.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_02: So nothing but fun in Music City, but it's coming at record, record heat, all the way down from Alabama, all the way up, nonstop heat.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_02: And uh wow, I wonder what effect that has on crops because most of the crops around here are now been harvested or uh but definitely have an effect on the Midwest with drying down.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_02: Of course, we talk about it being hot here, they are getting inundated with rain in Iowa and other states like that.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_02: So we have a little too much to the north rain, hot and dry in the south.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_02: Whew.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_02: The weatherman's been having an interesting year.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, nice work if you can get it.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: I suppose.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and if he gives a forecast that's wrong, it just changes so quickly that you know, just bet on heat, I guess, has been the trick through through the summertime.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to the National Weather Service.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: Hot temperatures and high humidity are forecast to continue across the mid-Mississippi Valley into this weekend.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there's still some red in there.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: Look, Red.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_01: Heat advisories do remain in effect.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: Heat uh heavy to excessive rainfall occurring at times through the weekend, could bring areas of flooding to parts of the northern Rockies, the upper Midwest, the central Great Lakes, and southern New England.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the one of the beauty parts about uh you the location of your podcast studio there in Nashville, it's like you said, it's close to everything.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh even a dandy restaurant nearby, right down by the strip.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_02: Villa Yeah, the villa.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: But I gotta tell you, when it's 90, 95 degrees outside, walking distance really doesn't sound all that appealing to me.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: How about you?
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I tell you what, when you go out for a beverage and a little appetizer, hey little white wine.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_02: White wine is definitely more of a summer thing here at the Grasafi household.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_02: Of course, we're happy to have any wine, whether it comes from a box or in a fancy bottle, corked, uncorked, whatever.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_02: Send us your suggestions.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_02: Drop something below.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_02: What tasty cold beverage will you be drinking here this weekend?
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's the weekend.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: It it is.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna I've got some traveling to do, so I should probably abstain until I get to get to where I'm going.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, but yeah, let's uh you know what?
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: Let's do a couple of items of mild interest, and then I want to play a little name that tune.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: You want to have some fun with the cards?
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna try, you're gonna embarrass me.
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's not at all.
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_01: No, why would I do that?
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: Why would I do that?
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_01: 1797.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: The first cornerstone of the United States Capitol was laid by George Washington.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, there she was.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_01: There we go.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_01: The Capitol building, 1797, the cornerstone was laid in 1947.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: The United States Air Force was established, and in 1940, it's the birthday of Mr.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_01: Frankie Avalon, American singer and actor.
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: Let me ask you this.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you don't have an opinion.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: Frankie Avalon or Frankie Valley?
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_01: Which one?
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_02: I like the name Frankie because I'm Italian, but I'll uh I'll take uh let's go with the second choice.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_01: Frankie Valley.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_01: You like Frankie Valley better?
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_01: And let's let's do play a little name that tune.
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_01: I've got my uh Ag Telecaster right here.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna I'm gonna fumble through it.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: Is it is it coming through?
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_02: Nice coming through.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_02: Delicious.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_01: Well, don't yeah.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_01: Here we go.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_01: On this day, the year is 1976.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: The group is called Wild Cherry.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: They had the number one hit, and it goes a little something like this.
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_02: Can you name that tune?
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_02: I'm thinking, I'm thinking it's like down.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: Play that funky music, White Boy, was the uh number one hit song by Wild Cherry this day in 1976.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_01: Give me a break.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: There's that music.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_02: Give me a break, I'm the injustice.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_02: I was nervous.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: You're immune from injustices.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: An injunction against injustices for you, Tommy.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: I sure appreciate your time, buddy.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you, Davis.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll look forward to talking to you again real soon.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you, beloved viewers, for being here with us.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: If you haven't had the chance, go to Agbull.com and check out all the lavish premium services we've got for you there.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: Visit Agbull.com or call 855737FarmAGBL.com.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: And don't forget to ask for Jim's write-up on 45Z, totally free of charge.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_01: Just go to Agbol.com, hit us in the uh contact us section, and we'll get that sent out to you.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Jet Sidwell will set you up bright and early tomorrow.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: Uh no, Monday morning.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, and uh I'll have Alison Thompson from the money farm right here on Axquawk in the afternoon.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: Have a great, have a safe weekend, everybody.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see you again real soon.