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The Favorites - NFL Week 16 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: our week sixteen episode, the Tuesday episode where we break
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: our exec decision and our Simon says, start to narrow
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: down the options for our fave fives to put in
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: contest boy. Last week, Blue Simon and I got a
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: little testy with each other on Sunday night because we
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: were zero to four heading into the Sunday night game.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: The Green Bay Packers saved our week, kept us from
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: an overur They did try their best to let the
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Seahawks creep back into it in the second half. We
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: turn the page, we fire away, We move on. I
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: was pumped to start making some bets, start to see
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: some opportunities this morning when I was finishing my research
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre, and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: my BFF Professional Better. So I'm in Hunter.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in hello chat. How are we doing?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Dude? You got to keep a good attitude when all
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: this is going on. And it helps when we're coming
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: out of our live event with listeners this past Thursday,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: and I got to say, I love our listen listeners.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: They are like they are nice, they are kind, they
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: are funny, They got great attitudes. They have the right perspective.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Everybody who visited with us at the event at the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Wicked Wolf in Philly, we had, you know, hundreds of
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: people come. They just have great attitudes and they're just
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: happy to be listening to the show. A lot of
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: them aren't even like Betters, They just sort of enjoy
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: hearing the football talk. I want to thank I'm sure
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: you do too. The hundreds of people who showed up
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: this past Thursday. Listeners came from Cleveland, from Dallas, DC,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: New York shout out Staten Island, former home of my
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: wife and mother in law. We had retirees from Delaware County.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We had people come on their date nights. More than
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: one couple I met came on a date night. In
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: the words of Matt Mitchell, we also had loads of
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Philly scumbags. I truly love Philly and the people that
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: are great town. Even my older son showed up family
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: acknowledgment that I have a podcast. I don't know if
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: you have any favorite memories other than the Simon Hunter
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: family showing up in force as they always do for
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: our live events.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you tell all my family there's gonna be free
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: drink Chad, They're going to be there. Definitely showed up
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: big time.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, it's just great where especially.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: Nowadays that I don't know about you, but as someone
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: that is getting older and my friends are all having kids,
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: you don't get to go out and hang out with
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: people the same kind of mindset of just be that
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: love football and love sports betting. So we all get
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: together with people just the same kind of mindset we have.
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: It's just a good time because like it's just it's
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: only other place I get that feeling is at the
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: book and sometimes they're not always the nicest people at
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: those sports books.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: So on the other.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: Flip side, like you just said, all our fans really friendly,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: really fun watching the game with them, making bets with them,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: And yeah, I honestly can't wait till the next time
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: we do all these love events just because you know
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: it's it's fun sweating bets with people, especially when people
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: are on the same side as you.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I really enjoyed it.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: We actually don't have as much as Matt Mitchell likes
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: to say, we don't have a ton of scumbag listeners
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: like we have so many people who are like married,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: people with kids, with families, who like to bet and
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: hang out. It's so much fun. It's so much fun
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: to hang out with them. You were giving away cash
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: to people who could answer in naane podcast trivia questions.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell did a great job putting together sort of
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: a questionnaire highlighting elements of the podcast, asking fun questions
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: like who could I beat up? Who is the biggest
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: villain in Philly? What jobs would Simon have been doing
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: if he wasn't doing this. We're going to share a
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: lot of those when we get into future episodes in
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: the off season, so people can hear what their podcast
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: fellow podcast listeners are saying when there isn't football to discuss.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: But great night, great time, Glad for everyone that showed up,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Glad to see everybody, and look forward to doing it again.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: We're going to do another one in the spring as
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
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  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
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  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, or North Carolina,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. So like, look,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: it's no secret we've been running bad for a lot
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: of the year. It's been a tough year. How about this, though, simon,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: If we think things have gone badly for us, and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: this past Sunday was epic meltdowns of Jonathan Taylor dropping
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the ball before the end zone, and Najie Harris dropping
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: a lateral, and god knows what else. Da Montgomery injured
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: his knee for the Detroit Lions. He is done for
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: the year. His rushing total for the year was seven
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: hundred seventy five zero point five rushing yards. As of Sunday,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: his total rushing yards seven hundred and seventy five. That
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: is either a great win for all the underbetters, but
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: the people who will remember it and tell stories about
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: it and discuss it at cocktail parties. Argimated people who
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: bet the over seven to seventy five and a half.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Great tweet from Action Network. Can you imagine that's that's
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: a gut punch Simon.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's pretty sick me.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: But it's also a testament to the sports books who
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: just play the numbers in their computer right where it's
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: like that's that's the average they got back and mathematically
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: it's profitable. And we always talk about it, if you just
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: bet unders on all these season long props, it's a winner.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: And that's just a classic case of that where they
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: laid a smart number and they got lucky.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to get some luck this week, because
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: that's how we roll. We bring optimism to every single week.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Week sixteen, we talked about the Thursday game the Broncos
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: at the Chargers. The Chargers are three point favorites. I
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: think money is starting to come in on the Broncos
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: because we're seeing the juice a little bit in their
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: favor on this number, so it could go to two
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: and a half quickly. That was our first lean. I
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: think part of this to me, you tell me was
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: about justin Herbert sort of looking hobbled on Sunday, especially
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: in the second half.
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and we just talked about really about that in
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: the number, right, like that just felt like once again,
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: too much respect to this Chargers team for a team
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: that I don't know how deserving they are of that respect.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: Right. A lot of what.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: They did earlier in the season, we get it. I
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: was really impressive start the season for this Chargers team.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: But the injuries, just like Detroit, are going to catch
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: up to these teams, right, Like we've seen that time
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: with time again, when we're losing key players at key.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: Positions, it matters.
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: And it's another spot too where I think professionals, like
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: I talked to you they like the Chargers here, it
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: was kind of like they think bon Nicks is hit
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: in that rookie wall, and I feel like it's the
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: other way where it's like, isn't this a nice spot
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: to bet on bone Knicks after a terrible start, Like
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: isn't this where he should do well on a short week?
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: Just get it out of his system? And again, it's
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: it's such a key number that it was at three,
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: So not surprising at all that it's come down to two
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: and a half, especially as the week goes along here,
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Like we talked about, it's a short week, Chargers have
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: more injuries, They seem more banged up. You know, I
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: don't know where you're at of this one, but it's like,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: if you can get the three, grab the three, because
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: it's it's a game.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying to.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: Bet if I don't have to, but if I'm taking
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: a good number here, it's definitely can be a three
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: on Denver.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it just matchup wise. There's been a lot of
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: talk about the Chargers defense and how good they've been,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: but since we nine twenty eighth in success rate, they
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: were third first eight weeks. So now you've got a
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Broncos interior pass rush where they got multiple players in
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the top thirty of PFF's interior defensive linemen rankings for
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: pass rush, and the Chargers interior O line does not
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: have anybody that is ranking as high. So there's a
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge there for Denver. So yeah,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: if we have the three, we're gonna take the three.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the go with the Broncos. Breaking
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: news out of Kansas City, Houston and Kansas City Kansas City.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: As we went on air, the last time I was
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: able to check, Kansas City was a two point dog.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: But as we were talking about this, literally before we
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: hit record for the show and went live, Andy Reid
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: was saying that Patrick Mahomes will have his first test today.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: He'll do some work today, They'll see how it goes.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: That will be the determinant in terms of indications about
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: how we can do on Sunday. He also said Hollywood
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Brown has a chance to play Simon. You were saying,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: as some other books, this line had already moved to
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Kansas City minus one. I have not been able to
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: check BET three sixty five. Let me see if I
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: can get an update here and.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: They're probably plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: I think most American books are out right now.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Okay, so yeah, plus one plus one and a half Chiefs.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Yep, yep, you're exactly right. So it's coming down off
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: of that news. I bet at at two and a
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: half yesterday. Schefter was reporting yesterday that the Chiefs don't
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: think it's as bad as they were first concerned about.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So I immediately better at two and a half. That's
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: the ballgame, really, like, are you're getting the best of
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: the number you should probably in the Chiefs right now.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe you're gonna make this as Simon says, I don't know,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: but feels like that's what we should be doing.
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: I would have it was still two and a half
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: because even even at two and a half, if it
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: was Carson Wentz, I don't hate that number honestly. For
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: this Chiefs team against a Houston team right on a
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: short week at home, it's like a lot of these
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: advantages we auto Athley are going to get to this
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: Chiefs team just because something I think everyone can agree
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: something just seems off about that Houston team. And you know,
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: the books opened this at three and a half and
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: it just got hammered even when everyone thought it was
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: gonna be Carson Wentz. So they moved at two and
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: a half. Like you just said, it's sat there for
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: a good day and a half, and like I've been betting,
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: I'm sure you have.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, now that.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: It's moved, I would still bet if you haven't, Like,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: if you liked the chief side, why not again, If
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: you're scared you missed the number, go ahead, throw it
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: in a teaser. Then you can get this up to
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: seven and a half right now, A lot of books
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: and a six point teaser. Really, Like, that's that's a
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: good number. If you want to get real weird with it,
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: pair it with the Ravens if you believe in them
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: to win outright against Pittsburgh the next that night game.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: So like, there's ways you can attack this if you
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: did miss the value. But I think there's still value here.
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: If it is Mahomes, this gets up to what Chad
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: minus three hugely, I mean minus three Chiefs.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: So to me, there's still have his value there. Even
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: if Mahomes is banged up.
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: We've seen him play on play on injuries before and
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: it's still then winning by a field goal. So to me,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: as long as it stays at three or under, I'm
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: still gonna go chiefs.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: And yeah, it stinks.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: Like we talked before the hop on the show, it
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: was it moved right before he got on. It's like
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: I was looking forward to talking about two and a
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: half again, just because again, if it is Wentz, I
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: have no issue. If you're sitting on a two and
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: a half ticket with Wentz, I think that's still a
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: solid number. And on the flip side, there's no reason
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: to chase this number for you now. Now you can
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: be patient that if it is Wentst on Friday, this
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: goes back up. You might even get back above three.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: It might get the plus three chiefs plus three and
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: a half chiefs. So definitely a number where if you
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: missed it, you like what me and chat are saying,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: you do think Mahomes toughs it out, grab it now.
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: If you're on the flip side and you want to
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: be on Houston, I would just keep being patient here
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: like I could. I could see this keep going down
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: as the rumors keep swirling about my home's health.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's interesting that you mentioned the Texans. They
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: are still not a very good team. Offensively. And you know,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I was listening to Aikman last night, Prey Aikman, and
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: they were talking about coaches and who could potentially coach
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the Bears, and you know, they mentioned Ben Johnson, they
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: mentioned Cliff Kingsbury, they mentioned Bobby Slowick from the Texans.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: And there's clearly something that defenses have figured out when
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: they're defending CJ. Stroud. I don't know if you've seen
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: it in all the film study that you do, but
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: they are just defending him differently, and maybe they're playing
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: safeties deeper. I don't know, but this team even against
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins, and I really liked the Dolphins last week,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: and we didn't put him in the contest. I didn't
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: bet him at three because it's something about it made
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: me nervous. But this Texans offense man Joe Mixon just
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: had had just twenty three yards rushing last weekend, Nico
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Collins just seventeen yards receiving. The Texans won that game
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: because Tua turned it over three times. CJ was sacked
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: four times. They only had three point six yards per play,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: only twelve first downs. And this Chiefs defense is significantly
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: better than the Dolphins defense. And defenses have been confusing CJ. Stroud,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: especially on third downs all season. Like, I don't know
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: what you're seeing in whatever you're looking at, what is
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: going on with this Texans team.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the biggest thing from CJ is
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: he had a lot of confidence pushing the ball downfield
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: last year and that's been gone because of all the
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: hits he's taken from behind that bad offensive line. Like
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: you can see him either getting rid of the ball
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: early or just taking the easy checkdowns rather than trying
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: to make stuff happen.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Did last year.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: So that's I mean, again, that's the human part of it, right,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Like we talked earlier the year Jade Daniels, you could
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: just tell Jane Dames was playing in a way that
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: you could tell he had never been hit in the
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: NFL before, and you saw immediately shifting that once he
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: did get hurt and hurt his ribs.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Right, he's played.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: Differently since that injury all season. So I think this
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: am with CJ. It just seems like he's someone that
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: was playing free last year and this year he's taking
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: a lot of hits. He's overthinking, and you're right, like
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: we've talked about it, we don't like Ben Houston as
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: a favorite. This is another spot there's still a favorite
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: right now, so it's it's pretty easy pick right now
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: for us.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: With the Chiefs.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: This is how sad my wife is in the shower
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: this morning. After I did my very aggressive, high intensity
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: thirty minutes of rowing, I was thinking to myself, if
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Mahomes plays, I've got the Chiefs at two and a half,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I bet I'll be able to get the Texans at
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: plus three.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: That's not sad, that's that's the best.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: That then I'm just middle.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I live for a middle.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, with Milman the Middler what they call me. Pittsburgh,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: get Baltimore. Baltimore's a six point favorite. This numbers come down.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Neither of us were scared off by the Steelers lost
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: to the Eagles on Sunday to not bet them here.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I actually waited until Monday afternoon to get the six
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and a half. As soon as I saw Tomlin say
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: he was optimistic about TJ. Watt more money than tickets
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: on the Steelers. So you know it's not a pro
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: joe split, but there is a higher percentage of dollars
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Steelers. Also, some optimism George Pickens
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: may play after missing the past couple of weeks. Tomlin
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: said they're going to monitor him this week, which is
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: more than he said last week going into the Ravens.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Have you seen anything to make you not want to
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: play this?
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: No, And honestly, the it was pretty funny, Like we
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: did our Sunday show and I let off with just
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: doing in a row the Thursday to Saturday games and
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: we basically just said each one and we'd like the dog.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: Each summer has come down so pretty shocking where the
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: favorites have been so good that these dogs.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Have moved the other way.
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: And yeah, our simple view of this Pittsburgh number is
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: like it's too big, especially in a matchup where they've
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: always played really well against Lamar. It's one of the
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: few teams that knows how to make him kind of
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: a just terrible day. For some reason, he's uncomfortab when
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: he plays against Pittsburgh and he turns to struggle.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Obviously, the key to that is what you just talked about, TJ. Watt, Like,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: I am one hundred percent with you on that one.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: If he is.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: A game time decision, whatever it may be, and we
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: could put this one and I wouldn't put it in
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: if that's what we're playing with, Like, if we have
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: to lock this in, I wouldn't risk it knowing that
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: we're betting a Pittsburgh team that might be down their
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: number one d end and their number one receiver, Like
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: that is a lot to overcome. And yeah, amazing staff
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: from Evan lamar oh and five against the spread versus Pittsburgh.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: So me and Chad, I mean, we we got lazy
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: with us when we always just bet Pittsburgh in this spot.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: It feels like the same here, Like six and a
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: half was a great number. You can still find there's
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: one really public book out there still sit on six
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: But by it, why not take it?
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: And if you do get scared off by or you
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: can try to do what I just try to try
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: to middle it. Take the teaser Ravens, tease up the
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Chiefs right now, like there's there is value here to
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: this middle because it does feel like the kind of
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: game where the Ravens are gonna win, but they'll win
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: maybe by justin Tuckerfield will like it'll come down to
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: the last position. That's just how these two teams play.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: It's just again we love to bet the dog, especially
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Tomlin in this spot. We expect them to bounce back
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: after that embarrassing loss to the Eagles team. So yeah, Chat,
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: it's it's a game I love. But if there's no TJ.
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: I don't think we'd put in our contest.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Sun and Light last week with Cleveland and Kansas City
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: where you said very specifically, you said, very specifically, avoid it.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: It's gross, and yet somehow I snuck it in. I'm
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: putting this one only if TJ Watt playing, which I agree,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: and if he's not, I might try to buy out
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of it.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: Well, I just think they'll screw us on the number.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: If he's not playing.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: I bet you it goes back to the six and
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: a half. I could easily see this being five and
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: a half in contest.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was a clunker like the Steelers. They
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: had five minutes possession in the first half, right, and
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: there was going to be inflation on this game when
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: they played as badly as they did against the Eagles,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: and Lamar was thrown five touchdowns against the Giants. And
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: I will say this about the Steelers, they were terrible,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: if not four that Najie Harris dropped lateral. They were
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: down twenty to thirteen. They may have been tied or
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: down just four midway through the third quarter, and that changes,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: that really changes the game.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and then tom on punt too. Tomin punted on
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: the Eagles side of the ball, and what was it.
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: Eagles had a ten minute, eleven minute DROs.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Never give it back, right, so literally have the ball
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: for ten minutes twenty seconds.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: That was a bad Timelin game. I think overall, it.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Almost feels like, you know, we were nervous about that
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: and nervous about that game, and nervous about the Chiefs
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: game because we were betting into the trends that we
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: knew they couldn't last forever. And I feel like in
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: both cases it's like we popped a zip and it's
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: like there's just so much it's all been relieved, and
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: we should go back again, now, you know what I mean.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: We're This was when I said Pittsburgh Sunday.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: Now you gave me a look of like I'm just
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: happy you said it, because I can't say anything right now.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: We're not right spot for Pittsburgh.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's look at a recap of our Week
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: fifteen in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest. Congratulations to week fifteen first place
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: winner Michael Stimpert. Michael went five and zero got within
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: six of the tiebreaker, takes home our one thousand dollars
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: weekly prize. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: producer cuple Ward to the entry that finished dead fucking
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: last in the contest.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Have you heard about the loadsome loser? He's a loser
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: about he still kids on try.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: This week's producer Cup award goes to Mark to you,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: who went on to five missed the tiebreaker by almost
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: five hundred yards. Mark, please email our producer at podcast
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize. Cleveland at Cincinnati,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's seven point favorite, Kevin Stefanski would not commit to
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Jamis as his quarterback. I will not commit to betting
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: on the Browns. I cannot commit to betting on the
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: Bengals to seven point favorites. With the defense, they gave
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: up fourteen to Will Levis and thirteen to Mason Rudolph.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Can you.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know, it's tough. What are we gonna do here?
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Pass?
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Have an opinion. I don't have an opinion. If I'm
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: playing a number, I want to play Cleveland.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: It just sucks, even if it's DTR.
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: Like I want to bet Cleveland even if it's Chamius
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: or DTR because no matter what, they're gonna be able
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: to move the ball.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: We already know that against the Cincinnati.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Defense, Yeah, they're terrible.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: What you just said those issues for me is that
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: what happens on the turnover side, like what burns us?
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: And has Cleveland just totally given up at this point
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: because that that second half looked like a team that
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: had nothing going, no spark at all, even defensively like
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: they had a couple of big time stops stops, but
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: overall it just felt like a total nothing game where
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: they just don't want to be there. So, like you said,
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: the number everything about it, I want to play Cleveland.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: I just I don't have an inma Chad to ride
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: it for another week.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know they're not for the contest for sure.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I also feel like there's other games that we're going
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: to like more. I do think we can find five
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: games that we like. Simon, there's been much missile towing
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: and Hearts have been glowing when the playoffs are near.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: That means the holiday season is upon us, and with
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• 23:27
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  Speaker 2: Because it's the gift at last.
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  Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites. Very interesting game La Rams at
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. Jets are three point underdogs. On Sunday night,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: we discussed liking the Jets. I'm very surprised that the
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: money has come steaming in on the Rams. This is
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: a pros joe split with tickets on the Jets money
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: on the Rams. This move. It's not at three at
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: bet three six five, but it is at three and
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean it's at three at bet three
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: six five, but it's at three and a half at
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: a lot of other books. Are you surprised at the move?
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: No, I mean I'm surprised to know that more tickets
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: are on the Jets because it's like, this is the
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: definition of the public hammering the Rams and the pros
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: will just bet the Jets. So there's a couple of
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: games like that this week that's like, you know, I'm
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: sorry ahead of time people like meanscha might have to
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: force one of the contest because it is it's just
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: a glaring number movement where it's like this should probably
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: be closer to a pick maybe minus one and a
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: half on the Rams, and we're just getting a ton
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: of value here just because you know, this Rams team
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: have had they've had some big wins in prime time
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: spot in games where it's like, you know, last week,
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: people are just going to check out up to the weather, right.
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: Stafford threw three interceptions that were dropped, like there's no
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: beating around that, Like he had a bad game, they
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: stole one. Now the public's rewarding them. Like it's just
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: a very bizarre scenario on the flip side, you know,
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: as much I want to shoot on the Jets coaching
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: staff for that end of the game. Overall, Rogers has
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: looked better as he's gotten more comfortable with the weapons
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: on the team. Like that was totally a game where
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: you know, if Devanta Adams wasn't on that team.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: There's no way they cover that number. Like DeVonta Adams
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: literally took.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: Over that game just because of him and the Rogers connection.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: So that's a way that they can easily attack this
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: Ram secondary.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: We've seen this Ramp secondary just young, inexperienced.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: Now they're going up against a veteran like DeVonta a
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: Devanta Adams obviously doesn't have the game he had last week.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: That's going to open up everything else in the offense
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: as well, like we've already talked about that. So yeah,
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: I hate it because I wanted to avoid this Jets team,
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: But now, like you just said, now that it's up
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: to three and a half, you can't avoid it. That's
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: there's too much value there. That's such a good number
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: you have to take the Jets.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: This line stinks for a letdown spot for this Rams team.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: After going thirty five games without throwing for three hundred yards.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers went over that against Miami and finished with
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty nine versus the Jacks. He has
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: looked mobile, he's been evading the rush, he's been accurate
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: on the run, he's been connecting with receivers downfield. I
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: already made a note. We've got a Rams pass defense
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: that is bottom third of the league rush d and
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: overall yards per play that is bottom five, not bottom
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: fifth of the league, literally bottom five in the league.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: They're missing some key players. I feel like we're going
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: to be in the foxhol Like. I don't understand sort
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Rams here, because
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: it is like they've and sexy against the best team
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: in the NFL in the Bills, and they went ugly
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: against their biggest rival in a must win spot. So
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know what. I don't know what guys are
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: betting here. Are they betting the you know that Stafford
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: McVeigh versus Rogers uhbrick matchup? That's the only thing I
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: can think of is that they just they like the
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: coaching quarterback mismatch more than they like the number.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just the Rams are a better team. I mean
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: they're I mean, I have to check them. I'm pretty
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: sure they're leaving their division now, so maybe that's the end. Yeah,
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: they are, like, well, they're playing people view that they're
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: playing for more.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: They're leading their division. This Jets team is playing for nothing.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: Coming off a win, you expect them to have a
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: lutdown here, so I get their perspective. Also extended rest
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: for that Rams team.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I just think they're just overvalue, a little
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: overrated right now?
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: All right, speaking of overvalue and overrated, are the Philadelphe
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Eagles overvalued and overrated? Visiting their division rivals, the Washington
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Commanders at bet three sixty five? This is three. There
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: are a lot of three and a half's out there.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: We discussed it a bit on Sunday night. I want
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to take the hook here is this. Simon says it is.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: Simon says Washington three and a half. When Simon says
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: do it, we do what Sion's says. He just nailed.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: It's all about the number. We talked Sunday night. We
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: loved it at four.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: We knew it was gonna come down because it was
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: just a way too inflated line and it's going to
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: be three by kickoff, like this.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Is another game.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: Oh yeahs pros Joe's Like the public is going to
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: hammer this Eagles team that you know, not that this
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: is their last tough game with the schedule, right. They
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: end with I think the Cowboys and the Giants. I
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: guess that could be tough for them in some ways.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: But this this is the type of game where if
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: the Eagles.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: Somehow win it, they're not winning by more than a
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: field goal. Like this is gonna be a really ugly close,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: slow scoring game. And last time they played, Washington was
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: in it until they made a couple of little stupid
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: mistakes and obviously the Eagles just open it up in
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: the second half of them with Saquon So you know,
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: we've seen time taking them times. Teams that see another
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: team the second time around, it's just different. They know
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: to play each other, especially a playoff team like that
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: Washington is.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: So we talked about it Sunday night.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: That was a dumb number open with four to four
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: and a half, and it was opened that eye because
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: Commanders should have lost one on a terrible ref technicality.
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw that clip of that
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: ref top of the clock when you shouldn't have. Then
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: the flip side, the Eagles just blow out in a
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: game that no one was betting on them, right, everyone
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: was on the other side. So it's like the public
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: tends to overadjust to those type of moments where they
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: got rolled by a team. They come back and heavy
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: on the other side the following week. So yeah, the
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: the unfortunate part just number has moved so much. If
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: you can find the three and a half, find it now,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: this is just a number. I can see get the
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: three by Sunday. It's just the pros. You're gonna keep
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: hitting it once again. It's just all about inflated lines
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: and taking the value. And that's that's what this line is.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: It's just inflated right now. This Egos team is really good,
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: really talented. Divisional games are just different. They simply are.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: So that to me is the defining point here.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: It'll be three before we end this live show. It's
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: a three. We're anywhere that it's three and a half,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: it's you know, three and a half minus one twenty.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna move and it's elevated big. Every single
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: place that is three and a half plus three and
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: a half. So it's going to be a three before
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: you know it. So, yeah, if you want it, Simon says,
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: grab it. Arizona at Carolina. Carolina's a four point dog.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: We're back at it with the Carolina Panthers. Finally they're underdogs,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: so we don't have to be tempted. You know, good
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: for us that we did not put them into the
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: contest this past week. We wrote him as dogs for
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: several weeks. We jumped off this week. Dave Canalis, coach
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, has been saying that his starting quarterback is
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: week to week. He announced yesterday Bryce Young will be
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: the starting quarterback. He did not have a great game.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Four turnovers. You know they the defense cannot guard Ceedee Lamb.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Micah Parsons was dominant. I think he had two sacks
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: in the game. Just was all over Bryce Young, force
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: and fumbles. Was it just a it was a regression
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: game for him. I don't want to put this in
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the contest, but you know, Aleen Panthers here.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: No, I actually love Panthers here. I think it's a
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: good number. I have this a three and a half.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: It's four.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: Really yeah, again, it's not one, like we're not getting
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: two points of value.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: It's nothing crazy, but yeah, I just I love the
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: way this.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: Panthers team plays offensive league and especially the way they match.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: Up for this Cardinals team defensively.
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: Cardinals are a team that they'll basically let you drive
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: up and down the fe they just can stop being
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: the red zone. And we kind of seen since the
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: Panthers have come back from that bye week that it
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: feels like that's one of the things that actually improved
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: with Bryce Young's game is his playing style inside the
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: red zone, his decision making inside the red zone. So,
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: like you just said, that was the worst game they've
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: had in weeks last week, and that to me is
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: the nervous part chat where it's like, did they get
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: a lot of bad habits once again? Did Bryce Young
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: get some bad habits again last week? And that are
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: in carror of this game because Arizona, as much like
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: to beat up on them, you know, they're a playoff
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: basically Borderland playoff team that's been overall played pretty well
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: this season. Like they're a team that you know, if
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Kyler shows up, they would probably be leading their division
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: this year. Like he's had a lot of games where
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: he's disappeared, so I mean you going into this no
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: the deal like Kyler could easily burn us back in
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: this Panthers team, like if he has a Kyler game,
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: because Panthers defense is terrible, like terror. I mean, they
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: made Cooper Rush look like an All Pro last week.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: You look at the I've talked about these next Gen stats,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: and you know there's twenty four different metrics that you
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: can compare a team to team, and you look down
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: the columns Panthers defense thirtieth thirtieth, thirtieth, thirty yeth thirtieth thirtieth,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: right literally for every single one of them.
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: No, And it's like, and they don't there's no way
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: of hiding it because we already talked about it. I
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: think it was Derek Brown, like they've lost some of
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: the key guys early in the year that like they
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: already were thin, they lost their best basically their best defenders,
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: and it's like only gotten worse. So yeah, that's that's
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: why your hesitation here, Chad. I get there's other dogs
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: I like more. It's just I'm basically playing the model
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: in my faith in the Panthers where it's like this
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: Cardinals team, you know, we've seen it time and time again. Now,
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: if Kyler doesn't show up, they could easily lose these games.
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: And the fact that you can get plus one seventy
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: five right on the money line of the Panthers just
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: feels like it's too inflated for this, this Cardinals team.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I for a second there, I thought you were gonna
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: say you loved Arizona. And it's been such a it's
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: been such a year that if you had said that,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: I honestly it would have made me feel worse than
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: any time we had contradicted each other the entire year,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: because then I just would have felt like I might
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: as well be throwing darts, because if we're not on
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the same side about Carolina, then what am I even
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: looking at right now? That's how that's honest one, that's
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: honestly how I would have felt about that game. That's
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: where my confidence would have gone. I might have had
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: to hang it up. Tennessee at Indy this is a
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: very weird game. Indianapolis is a four point favorite. If
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at this right in the Action app and
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: on actionnetwork dot Com, where I can see the betting
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: ticket splits and the money splits the public, meaning the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: tickets are coming in on Tennessee. But the money is
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: leaning Indy, And I don't know if you're seeing this
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: as well. I don't know if you're feeling this way,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: like are people fading? Anthony Richardson, who reverted back to
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: pre benching days and against the Broncos, was completed just
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: forty four percent of his passes had two picks, Like,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: are they are people banking on Tennessee starting Mason Rudolph?
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: What are you seeing here?
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: I would say that it's definitely Mason Rudolph to me
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: that like they want to because we already talked about
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: coming into last week that was historical what Tennessee's done.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: I'm not covering. I mean obviously has the number of
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: like it's rare and unique teams only have two covers
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: whatever they're at at this point through the season, Like
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: usually the books over adjust just to because they know
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: that the public's gonna keep fading that that side, and
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: like this this Honestly, I want to be on the Colts,
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: I'll be honest.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Jef like coming so do I like? But like I can't, Oh,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: we really.
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: Gonna like Mason Rudolph scasof though, That's all I was
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: gonna say to you, are we really gonna let that
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: screw us?
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: No, No, honestly, it's it's not Mason Rudolph. To me, it's
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: why did this number move down? Like it moved from
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: four and a half to four, which is great, but
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: the money is on the Colts. So why would bookmakers
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: move this based on the public liking the Titans. That's
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: not I thought.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: I thought it was because of the Mason Rudolph will Levis.
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: Then that, to me, is that's what I thought the
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: movement was. Like, I know it's not much, but I
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: have them a full point better than will Levis.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: So like, to me, this should keep going.
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: I think it should be a three and a half,
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: which again, right now I'm showing value on Tennessee.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: I should be betting Tennessee. I know, but we've talked.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: This Colts team has just been better all season at home,
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: especially Anthony Richardson has been better at home and this
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: so yeah, it's just I'm honestly.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Shocked that anyone's even betting the Colts.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: I thought everyone's gonna be like, u's really pissed off
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: and burned about this team.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: But you know, like we say, Chad just got to
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: burn the tapes and move on.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: So I'm trying to I'm not trying to overthink it,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: and I wanted to be on the colts here, but right,
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: maybe I'll just avoid this one because, like you just said,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: it's it's historical, this Tennessee team, Like eventually it's going
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: to come back around.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: They're going to start covering some of these games because
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: it's just no team.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, Evan probably has better numbers than I do,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: but yeah, the fourth team is super Bowl Air to
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: be two and twelve against the spread or worse. So
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: this is something we don't see, Chad. This is historic
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: since the Super Bowl era. This is the fourth team
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: to be this bad. So that's my fear here is
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: like we know it's going to come back around, Like
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: they're not going two and fifteen, right, Like they're going
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: to cover one or one or two of these ones.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: At the end here.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: So you're right, maybe maybe I should just avoid this one.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Well, I'll leave it on the list. We can see
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: what happens over the next four to eight hours. We're
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: certainly going to get some sharp calls about it because
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: people do like the cults here, and you know, maybe
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: we're willing to go back into the fire if Jonathan
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Taylor has the courage to get back on that field,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: to go back to practice after a rookie mistake and
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: an epic meltdown that I really do believe that cost
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: his team the game. You watch. I haven't watched Shane
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Steichen's press conference postgame, and I haven't sort of looked
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: for his quotes about that in the last forty eight hours.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: But I did watch Sean Payton just because I love
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton. I think he's, you know, brilliant and funny
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: and one of the more honest coaches. And he couldn't
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: even find the words to talk about that. Jonathan Taylor
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: drop of the ball before he got into the end zone.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: That's it. That's the game. They're down thirteen points the Broncos.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: We're winning our bet. Boennix was having a terrible game.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: That was just epic. So if he can do it,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: we can do it. Burn the tapes, Burn the tapes.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Chicago. Guess what. Guess what Simon this no
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: no no, no, no, no, no no. This line has moved
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: from seven to six and a half. So somebody is
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: betting the Bears I bet they are, and it was
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: my first instinct, but then I remember how horrible the
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Bears rushing defense has been, and I'm thinking, even without
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: David Montgomery, the Lions will want to take out their
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: frustration on someone and this like Caleb Williams when he's
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: throwing it, it looks like he's trying to throw the
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: ball through a brick wall every single time. No touch,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: no arc, just the laser, absolute laser, every single time
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: he lets it go. I'm sure the Bears are the
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: right side here. I don't think you want to touch it.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: I don't really feel like I need to touch it.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: I think I think the Lions have something to prove.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: They need to win. I think the Bears are They're
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: just trying to survive for the next three games.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, seven and a half would have made sense.
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: I've been okay that that number makes sense because I
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: believe it was ten and a half and then went
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: down to nine and a half on that Thanksgiving game,
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: and we joked that game, if just one of those
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: field goals by Detroit I think they kicked four or
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: five feegals in the game, was a touchdown, they cover
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: that number like that. The Bears just got I think
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: we all realizing now they've they had a crazy stretch
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: that they got a really lucky, really fortunate and it
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: broke their way. And yeah, the Lions defense is so
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: banged up that if this was seven and a half,
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: I could have been convinced because it's like, we'll have
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: an opportunity for the back door right at some point.
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know it's obviously on the books, mind
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: because you just said they moved it down now to
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: it's in the spot where every teaser in the world's.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Gonna have the lines on their side.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: So that's that's the thing where it's like I I
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: old me and Chad would be hammering this Bear's number,
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: like this is the.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Trap of all traps, like lines.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, from my perspective, I feel like they're gonna
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: win this by twenty points, right like you just said,
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Dan Campbell's gonna take out all that on them this week.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: And you know that was the lines in my memory
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: of their first low since that Bucks game, and we
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: remember we backed them the following week after that.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Buck so done.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: They've won eleven in a row.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: Right, so that yeah, so you know you expect that
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: major balance back spot here, but it's once again comes
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: down to the injuries. Chat like one of the injuries
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: catch up to them. So maybe this is the one
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: favorite we get in because I do love the line,
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: especially at six and a half, but it's.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: Like, oh man, all the injuries they have, it's just
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: hard for me to put a number on this Lion's
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: team right now.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: It's like, I know how great they are, but the
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: problem is can they get stops defensively? And you know,
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: me and Chad have a little peatsdy. We were up
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: it was it twenty one points at half with this
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: Lion's team and we got back door by this exact
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: Bears team.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: So it is tough.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Well, I got a different favorite that is a huge favorite,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: and I want to see I want to see if
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: I could entice you a little bit. Uh, But yeah,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: I think Lions they win this going away. The Bears
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: are a terrible, terrible football team. They they really can't
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: stop the run, and that's they can't protect the passer
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: and they can't stop the run. So one thing, even
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: if the Lions can't pressure the quarterback, they will be
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: able to run on this Bear's defense, right And.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: I mean you'll agree since they made a coaching change.
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: They have not looked prepared in either game.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: No, as soon as Thomas Brown stopped being the offensive
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: coordinator and started being the head coach, they are What
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: are they losing?
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Is it thirty four to nothing in the first quarters?
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Like it's pretty honest to god, It's just it's embarrassing
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: how bad it is. So we'll go back to it.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I put it on the list. We can, we can
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: discuss it on Thursday. New York Giants at Atlanta. Atlanta
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: is a double digit favorite. Not surprising how many tickets
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: are on the Giants right now sixty four percent and
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: the game open to ten is double digits. A digit
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: too far? Is that what the public is saying to
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: back the Atlanta Falcons? Has have we reached the tipping
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: point the public? Not even the public will back Kirk
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Cousins as a ten point favorite.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: I agreed, are Like, we would be hammering this number
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: if we didn't think the Giants might have quit in
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: the season.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: That's the fear.
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: It's like they are so bad in so many different ways,
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: and they've had such brutal injuries this season, and like,
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: do you know who their quarterback is?
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: This week, Is it Drew Lock, Like, is it Tim Boys?
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Is it timbo? I mean that's the problem is, like
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I'd love to hit the Giants right now because the
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Falcons really shouldn't be ten point favorites against anybody, but
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: I want to know who's playing quarterback.
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: People are already talking that they're gonna cut Kirk after
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: this season, which was just crazy to think they'll eat
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: all that dead cat money. But because the success of
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: the the Broncos this season, the sex of the you know,
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: the Bills, what they've done with all that dead cat money,
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: that maybe they're just like, no, you can you can.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Make it work. Oh it's terrible.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: That's why I hate this number check because it's like
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: it feels too easy, Like who is taking Atlanta minus ten?
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Like Kirk cuttins right, But people are like, I we've
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: seen it now, Like people are putting this in their teasers,
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: their parlays, like they're hammering this Atlanta number because everyone
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: just thinks what we just talked about that the Giants
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: have given up a quid in the season. But yeah,
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: another line that's extremely tempting. There's another huge dog this
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: week that I do not like at all, but this
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: one I could be talking to, like if you came
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: in here on Thursday and you're like, it's ten and
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: a half now and it's Drew Lock.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: Like we know it's not Timbo.
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: We know it's gonna be Drew Lock, who would be
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: shocking because I think he had a walking boot in
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: his foot like a week ago.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: I'd be in.
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: I honestly would be in on the Shins team. But
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: if it's Tim Boyle, I don't think I can get
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: there like he is.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: He's a fourth stringer.
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: He's the guy that you just you bring him in
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: as an insurance policy. He was never supposed to play,
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: but now he's playing. So I can't do it. If
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: it's Tim Boyle.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: How crazy would it be if we're going to the
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Mattress with Drew Locke, who we promised ourselves when he
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: was in the Broncos we would never bet on again.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: This is what the bookmakers do to us. They give
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: us such tempting, tempting numbers.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: It's an insane number.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: It's an insane they are. It's not even tempting.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: They're plus four hundred to win outright.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: It's a challenge. They're challenging us.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Oh, my god.
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: I love it though, And it would be so Giants
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: to do to win this game and get rid of
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: them having the number one pick, Like they're the type
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: of team that would do that.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Oh, I have no doubt over the next three games
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: they're going to win a game, lose out on the
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: number one pick, and then and then the Giants ownership
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: are just going to fire day Ball and Joe Sean.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: That's what's going to happen. Probably should have already Minnesota
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: at Seattle. Seattle is three at bet three six five,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: but at least when we came on the air, they
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: were at three and a half at some other places.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: I'm just checking the update right now. It's three across
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: the board except for one place. I bet it at
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: three and a half this morning on Seattle. I think
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: there's too much Sam Darnold love right now. I think
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: even before the Bears game, the conversation was about how
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: he is going to get paid, how amazing he's been playing,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: what a career resurrection. Should the Vikings find a way
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: to keep him. He beats the Bears in prime time,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: and there's more fawning about how amazing he is. He
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: did throw sixteen in completions, and the Vikings line I
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: do think is in some serious trouble. Cam Robinson had
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: a terrible game playing against a weak Bears defensive line,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: letting guys get by him, a lot of false starts.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Brian O'Neal, their right tackle in and out of the
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: game injured. He was sort of the guy keeping it together.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: And this Seahawks defensive line is just much better. Leonard
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Williams especially this year, has been amazing. And Sam Donald
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: just keeps the ball for so long, letting his routes
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: come open down the field. It's pro jos. Game tickets
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: are on Minnesota, money's on Seattle. I like the Seahawks.
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: I agree, just because once again it's another game. It's
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: all about the number, Like we're gonna have basically three games,
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: and we love because they're all three and a halfs.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: But it's all numbers. I really like and matchups. I like, right,
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: you just talked about this Vikings team. They deserve all
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: the respect like this, this fan base everybody like you know,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: only really really smart professionals, which I am clearly not one,
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: believe in this team head of this season.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: And Colin Cowhard, I should say, and for their reasons.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: I just didn't understand where they really thought that Kevin
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: O'Connor could solve this whole Sam Donald thing. And like
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: you just talked about, when he doesn't have his best
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: games chat, he still makes these big time throws this
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: season like he has all season. They need him to
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: come through and you know, I can't. I can't tell
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: you how many games they've had this year that have
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: been coin flip games that they somehow won and now
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: they control their destiny. They can be the fucking one seed.
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: It's pretty crazy the spot this Vikings team is that
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: from having you know, a six and a half win
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: total to they might be the one seed with a
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: nameless defense and Sam Donald running the offense. It's it's
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: bizarre orbits while we love football, and it's you know,
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: a reason here I wanted to be on Seattle for
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: what you've just talked about that I knew this Vikings
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: team was gonna be inflated, especially after their win on
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: Monday night. We talked about they're coming off a short
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: week having to travel to Seattle, but we don't know
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: the update.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you have an.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Update, but I don't know is Gino's playing.
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: So it is that he's gonna play. Yeah, I would
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: need to see more than that though, because he basically
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: had one of those if his leg was planted, he's
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: getting a new acl MCL right. Like the way that
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: guy shot right to his knee. I don't want to
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: call it a cheap shop because I guess the guy
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: was falling at the time, but it was like it
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: was one of those they've changed your rules because of it,
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: and they didn't call it flag in the play because
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: he was apparently.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: He was airborne one of his leggers in the air.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: But yeah, this matchup for this Vikings team, we have
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: enough data this season. They just play close games, right overall,
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: that's most of their games are one possession games, and
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: we've seen that the second half when they've gone off
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: game script, they've tend to struggle. Now, it doesn't has
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: not hold true these last couple of weeks, right, Sam
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: Darnold has been great in the second half of a
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: lot of these games, and they've drove the.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: Field and scored a lot of touchdowns.
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: But heading to the last week, we saw Seattle's defense
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: have kind of improved. Those last couple of weeks so
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: it's a tough one. Chat we're had three and a half,
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: I agree with you, but once this dips to three
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: two and a half, I kind of like the Vikings honestly,
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: because I do think they are the better team.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: The same thing I felt with Green Bay last week.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: It's like your.
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: Division is so good that when they get outside their division,
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: they've just been dominating the competition. Like Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota,
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: they've been incredible outside their division. So yeah, it's all
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: about the number year from each have three and a half.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: I am totally on board with you. I'd put this
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: in the contest, but the way the professionals are betting
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: this and they're hitting this number, it might be down
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: to two and a half come contest time.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: So it'll be tough for us to get this one in.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: I think it will be down to two and a half.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is one of three games that
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I had as my EXAC decision and I pulled off
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: only because even though Gino is playing like I'm still
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: a little anxious about it. Like you said me too. Also,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: you can't get like I want to give a game
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: where I know the majority of the places are offering
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: the number that I like, and nobody's really offering their
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: three and a half if anymore, which is what I
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: bet it at. So it did not make it is
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: my exact decision, but we will get there. Simon. Can
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
• 51:14
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• 51:44
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• 53:03
  Speaker 1: New England at Buffalo Buffalo is a fourteen point favorite. Simon.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: We have taken one massive number this season. Will this
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: be the second one?
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: I don't am I sucker? I love the Bills. What's
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: going on?
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I love them?
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: The bills make me.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: Throw your hands something, throw your hair back.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: Come on now, the bills.
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: I'm making it happen now.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: I love that though, isn't this too easy?
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: But then we overthought it. Last week we knew the
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: Rayvens was probably gonna be too easy.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: It was. It was too easy, Simon.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: I love we loved the Lions. A few weeks ago
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: we made the Lions minus ten. I forget who was
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: against our big balls better of the week? Maybe it was.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Actually that was no we had that minus fourteen. I
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: think the.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Titans, right, Yeah, like dread Mayo is now going out
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: on press conferences and throwing his offensive coordinator under the bus.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if that's the tipping point
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: for the Patriots to just say, screw it, We're going
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: to get Mike Vrabel and we're rebuilding this whole thing
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: from scratch because they're so disappointed in that and this team,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: and he did not handle that well. Like Josh Allen
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: is a double digit fave, doesn't scare me. Covering that
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: number at fifty four percent at home, it's a bit
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: higher if the spread is fourteen or more. Obviously, the
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: sample size on that is tiny. I don't see this
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: team letting up. I think they're having too much fun.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: I think he's gunning for an MVP. He just saw
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Lamar to five touchdowns against the Giants. I am not
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: afraid to bet the Buffalo Bills here.
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and again, I already know I'm gonna get a
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: lot of texts from a lot of pros like what
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: about all the injuries to the Bills defense? And you
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: know my pushback would be they're coming off a Rams
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: and Detroit game, like two of the class the nfcs
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: that are just you know, those are really high powered offense.
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: We don't have those same worries with this New England team.
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: And you know, the Josh Allen factor, like you just
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: talked about, We've never seen a quarterback play at this
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: type of level these last couple of weeks. Like I
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: don't know if the stat I saw was true, but
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: it was basically that he had seventeen touchdowns in zero
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: turnovers in the last like four weeks. Like it doesn't
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: it doesn't even sound like real numbers, but that's that's
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: how Dominie's been offensively. So you're right, it's really a
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: bet on We know they're gonna get points offensively. Can
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: can this Bills team get stops against Drake May?
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: We expect he should.
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: Obviously, the fear for us would be this is a
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: nice rest game for this Bills team, right, they don't
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: need to go all out, Like there's no reason for
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: them to really blow.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: This team out.
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: But I still think in the back of his mind,
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen's pushing for the MVP. I just can't see
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: him stepping off the gas like he's gonna yeah, right, offensively,
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: I feel like him and Joe Brady are just gonna
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: keep pushing it.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I like it.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: It's just it sucks that it's such a huge number,
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: Like it just feels so gross to do. But I
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: personally have this at seventeen and a half. It's fourteen
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: just a lot of value. But it's like, man, this
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: is such a huge, huge number for a divisional game.
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: But I think we both can't avoid a rate. I
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: think we both love this.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Bill side Matt Mitchell, feel free to weigh in in
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: the chat or vocally as our resident Buffalo Bill's super fan.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: How are you feeling about this game? Do you have fears?
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Will you yell at me if I make this my
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: EXAC decision? Because this was one of the three games
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: I wanted to make my EXAC decision.
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: I guess my only concerner would be whether it's a
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: big number. But yeah, I'm not feeling particularly anxious about this,
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: and the vibes are indeed strong. Also, it's their first
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: time back home and a little while, so they'll be
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: quit a celebratory atmosphere among the scumbags of Western New York.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: God bless them.
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah, no, wind very cold looks like under twenty degree
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: at kickoff kind of games. But yeah, I don't know
• 57:14
  Speaker 5: how you could feel excited about taking New England Buffalo
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: Bill's executive decision, the.
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: Choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: Are you your honor's execute executive decision?
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Minus fourteen? No fear, It's weird. I started researching it,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, what is this sensation I'm getting where
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: I want to back the Buffalo Bills at minus fourteen.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: The other game on my list San Francisco at Miami Miami.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I thought it was this game.
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: It was Miami's a one and a half point favorite.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: We talked about a Sunday night. I was leading Miami.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: You were intrigued. The tickets are on San Francisco. The
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: money is Oni Miami right now. To me, the strength
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: of the Dolphins is their short passing game top four
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: and EPA per play for passes under ten yards time
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: to throw under ten yards fastest in the league. That's
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: where the Niners defense is the weakest. What has your
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: research shown you? Are you feeling similar to me?
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: Honestly, we talked Tonday night.
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: I like the Miami with you, and it was just
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: really about the number. I mean, I personally thought my
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: mode would have it at minus three does and it's
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: only minus two.
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: So it's I think it's in the locks of a.
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: Lot of professionals viewing that you know, this Miami team
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: does kind of suck, and that you know, as much
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: as we bashed this forty nine ers team, it's going
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: to come back the other way, and we saw that
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: last week. But now you know, if they catch one
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: of those picks by Stafford, if Deebo catches one of
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: those passes, they're favorite in this game, no doubt. I mean,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: they're probably a minus two and a half. We're getting
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: great value on Miami. So that's that's my pushback here,
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: is that.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: We're not getting a great number.
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: Like this number feels pretty right, like both these teams
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: incredible desperate further playoff lives. You know, Kyle Shanahan is
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: the teacher here, like he's going against the student and
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: his former coach, and we've seen that kind.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Of work in Shanahan's favor in the past. But uh yeah,
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: it's just all the injuries to the forty nine ers.
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: I still feel like there's value on this Dolphins team,
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: especially once again.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: If there's no Trent Williams. Once again.
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: We've talked about those numbers with Purdy, like he's a
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: different quarterback, especially when he's worrying about the block of protection.
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: And Miami sneakily has a pretty good pass rush, Like
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: they're not a team that doesn't have guys to get that.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, Chop Robinson, say what you want about the
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: kid as a rookie, he's kind of turned it around here.
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: This is the second half of the season, So yeah, Chad,
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Maybe we'll come around more so on
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: Miami on Thursday, but as we say it right now,
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: I still like them. I'm I'm not gonna force to
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: be one of our five. But it's like, I am
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: really intrigued with this game and this number, just because
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: I think there is value still on this Miami side.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: So the reason I didn't make it my exact decision
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: and I leaned Bill is something you just said in
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: the middle. It feels like the Niners get a pick
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: and this is a different number, and I feel like
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: I feel like the books are saying to me, take
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: the short favorite. That's what we want you to do, right,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: And even though the money has been coming into Miami,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: and I like seeing that I'm on the right side
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: of the wise guys. Right now, there's something about it
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: that is keeping me from sort of exuberant irrational confidence.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: Well it's come down. It did touch two and a
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: half chat, so your initial read was right. We did
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: our show Sunday night Monday morning. At one point it
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: touched two and a half, and then we saw a
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: professional money hit the forty nine ers and it came
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: back down to okay, one and a half one, So
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: it is. It is a pretty split game. I will
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: say that.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: All right, there you go. So something my spidy senses
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: are tingling that it's not perfect for me. Whereas the bills.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: As soon as you said you've got this at seventeen
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: or seventeen and a half and we're at fourteen, I'm like, yeah,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: all right, that's what I needed to hear. Jacksonville at
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. This line has flipped. It's gone
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: from Jacksonville plus one to Raiders plus one. I don't know.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: I guess like we take the Jags, but I don't
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: want to do anything with this game.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: That's fair. Yeah, I bet the Jags.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: I threw them in a couple of teasers because it
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: was plus one and a half. And you're right, like
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: a couple books have now flipped in the Jags. Your
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: favorite which we talked about was going to happen Sunday night.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: If you want to avoid it for right now, I'm
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: fine with that.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: I might have a better opinion come Thursday, because yeah,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: I'm people are clearly can tell.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: I love Mac Jones and the Shaguars offense right now.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: They're just a fun team that can move the ball
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: and vice versus. This Raiders team just looks dreadful, totally quit.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: I mean miracle cover last night. I think they had
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: three field is to get the back door.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: They're just terrible, and they had the multiple special teams miscues,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: block kicks, block punts, I gues. It's a pathetic team. Uh,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: we can talk about again on Like in my notes,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: I'm like Mac Jones is irrationally confident. Yeah, a guy
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: who is named Mac Jones. Do you know what I mean?
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: He walked, he swaggers, he walks around like he owns
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: the place.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: Oh but the one he's barking, the d lineman who
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: could snap him in half like a twig I'm just like,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: this dude's the fucking worst.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's he's such a punk.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: But it's perspective too though, right, because when Josh Allen
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: does I'm like, Oh, this guy's fucking hilarious.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: He's the man. Well Mac Jones does it, It's like,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: shut the fuck up, Mac Jones.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is, you know, six eleven, four hundred pounds
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: and runs like a gazelle and has a can for
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: an arm and is gonna win the mac Jones is
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: a guy who alienated his teammates in New England, is
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: now a backup on the worst team, one of the
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: worst teams in the league. So Tampa Bay at Dallas,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: we both leave Dallas on Sunday night. The lines moved
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: in that direction four and a half to four? Is
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: it three and a half in some spots at four
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: at BET three sixty five, Like, Dallas is clearly better.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: With Micah Parsons, he's been a menace since coming back.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: Seven and a half sacks since he came back. Here's
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: the wild card to me, which I don't think is
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: getting discussed enough. Deron Bland, their cornerback. He came back
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: from a fractured foot a month ago with both of
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: them in the lineup. They're three and one, and now
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: in context that lost to the Bengals kind of looks
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: like a fluke. They seem to like Mike McCarthy, haven't
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: stopped playing for him. We liked the Cowboys on Sunday
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: just on instinct. I still like the Cowboys.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, model backs up too. This number should be three.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: It's four to four and a half, like you're saying
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: when it opened. Now, if you're lucky you can find
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: a four. There's only a couple of books left. I
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: still the four out there like this going down to
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: three three and a half. I know people are going
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: to be like, these guys love all the home dogs
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: this week, But it's all about the numbers, right, Like
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: we're getting a lot of the threes with the hook,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: and we're seeing that we're ahead of the movement. Right
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: the numbers are coming down so clearly we're on the
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: right side.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: Of their professionals.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: And yeah, every pro I talk to the same view
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: as us. Right they're hitting the four and a half
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: on the Cowboys just because Tampa was a little inflated
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: because of that when they just had the week before
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: and should they beat the Chargers, Sure, should they have
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: blown them out by double digits? No, that feels like
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: a kind of a fluky game overall. So looking at
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: this matchup with Tampa, mean chat, we've given them a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: ton of flowers. Right, They're a very complete team. As
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: an Eagles fan, I don't want to play them in
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. Like if Baker's hitting their right and this
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: defense is clicking with a lot of the guys they
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: had who play even passed Super Bowls and they're veteran defense,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: they're they're a pretty scary team. But this is the
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: exact spot they let down. Like we've seen a time
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: and time again with this Tampa team, after big wins.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: They kind of have letdown games.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: You know, it's crazy looking back to Chad that they
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: lost those games to Atlanta where it's like Kirk has
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: been terrible all season and some reason he just would
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: blow out the Stampa team and those two games they played.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: But yeah, like early in the year, I mean, you
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: took different positions on Tampa, and most of the times
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: we took them were after big wins to fade them, right,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: It wasn't even when they were they were healthy at
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: this point, right, like they upset Detroit, a game that
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: burned us. Me and Chat were on Detroit that game.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: We hammered the Denver the following week, which looking back
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: is kind of funny, but Denver went down there and
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: smoked them, right. I think they won twenty seven to
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: seven or twenty six to seven, like they killed them. Okay,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: the next week they beat the Eagles the following week
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: day at a huge letdown game.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: Once again, I gets the land.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: So we've seen time and time again when they have
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: these big wins, these like really tone setting wins, they've
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: had letdown games the following week, So we don't know
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: what kind of game we're gett from Baker. But overall,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: I feel like this Cowboys team with Cooper Rush, they
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: kind of know their identity here, which is just fource
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: feed Cede Lamb. Like basically we're on the same playbook
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: they have with Dak, but even more so, getting the
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: ball in Ceedee Lamb's hand makes them make plays. And
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: I don't really see anyone on the cornerback side that
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: can really slow down or stop CD in this matchup.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: So I like us always a being it.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: I like us to cover this back toward this number
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: or even went outright like this is another game I'll
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: throw in our mind on Robin like Cowboys.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: To me, they're a live dog right now.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. This just in from producer Gifford.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Jerry Jones just said on the radio, he promises this
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: is real. So I'm entirely depending on Gifford. I've eaten
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of raccoon. It's not uncommon at all. One
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: of my favorites is squirrel. It's wonderful and I would
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: even ask for the brain of the squirrel. Delicious Seriously,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Jerry Jones today on the radio, go Cowboys, New Orleans
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: at green Bay. Green Bay is a thirteen and a
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. Is this the game you were talking
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: about a big favorite you like? Or was it the Bills?
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: No, that was the Bills. This is this game I
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: honestly want to avoid beyond Green Bay.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: But this feels like a letdown spot for a Green
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: Bay team that's about to literally go through just a
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: juggernaut like they have, you know, a Vikings team on
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: deck that I feel like they know is that's the
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: game for them.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is tough.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: Like I was trying to find a way to get
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: on the Screen Bay team because they've honestly been so
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: good to me.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: But knowing that this is coming up is their last.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: Tough game of the season against Minnesota, it's one that
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: can define their playoff seating, I could just see this
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: being a letdown spot. And yeah, it's what, don't know
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: who quarterback is of New Orleans right now.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: If it's that rookie once again.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Well it's supposed to be Spencer Ratler, right, here's the.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: Way avoid it. If it's Spencer Ratler, I'd avoid it.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: That's that's what I would say. I want to avoid
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: it because of rather Also, Avin Kamara might not play,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: like he left that last game with a groin injury
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: and he is not. There's no update on his status,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: so we don't know if he's playing.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: That would actually be a big deal.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: That would honestly push me towards Green Bay, just because
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: he has been the life blow of that team, like
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: he really is. Yeah, he's been incredible this season, and yeah,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: this it's just a train wreck. Everything is just so
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: battering now in New Orleans. It's like they know they're
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: tempted to with this number thirteen and a half, just
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: keeping a runner of fourteen. They know what I want
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: to do here, but I'm doing my best to fight
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: at all.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Are they tempting us? Are they challenging us?
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: I think we got a good list for Thursday, A
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: lot of home dogs, a couple of favorites. We got
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: a big favorite with the bills. Really fascinating to hear
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: what the wise guys have to say on Thursday with
• 1:08:59
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