Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/30/26: Trump Orders Indefinite Blockade, US Tries To Collapse Iran Economy, Trump Delusional Oil Bet

Transcript

4/30/26: Trump Orders Indefinite Blockade, US Tries To Collapse Iran Economy, Trump Delusional Oil Bet · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
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  Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I have an amazing show for everybody today.
• 0:36
  Speaker 4: What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Keeping me focus on Iran today, Trump is saying that
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Iran is going to cry uncle over his blockade. We're
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: going to dig into the numbers and see which country
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: is like to likely to cry uncle first. Actually, also,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Rory is going to join us again. Talk about the
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: oil markets. Gas prices are really spiking wildly right now,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: and the markets broadly seem to be realizing that we
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: are in it for the long haul in terms of
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: the level of pain, so a lot to get to
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: with him. We're also going to do a deep dive
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: into those lego propaganda videos. Drop Site News had an
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: exclusive with the creators, digging into their motivations, and Tim
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Dillon had some.
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: Things to say about those videos as well.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Dave Smith is also going to rejoin the show to
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: get into some of the politics of Trump's coalition and
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: how they are feeling about this whole, absolutely disastrous war
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: in Iran.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the New York Times did a focus group of
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Trump voters. The highest grade somebody would give him was
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: a C multiple d's and f's. Most common word was
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: what betrayed. I'm pretty sure that's when things are going well.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: In addition to a poll that found him doing worse
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: than Jimmy Carter did in nineteen seventy nine, which.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: Takes on inflation specifically, which impressive.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: Anyway, thank you all to subscribe for the show Breakingpoints
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• 1:58
  Speaker 3: were listening to this podcas please share an episode with
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: a friend. This one might in particular be a good one,
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: especially the Rory interview. A lot of people I think
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: are going to be waking up today. You know, the
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: normies are starting to be shaken because they can see
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: gas prices. Yesterday in Illinois there was this two price
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: cycles in a same day, with a roughly twenty five
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: cent increase each time, So fifty cent increase in gas
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: just in the same day, in one day, just in
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: that state. I believe the nationalize the average there is
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: now five dollars a gallon. So if you've got a friend,
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: a grandma, or an uncle, or somebody's like, hey, why
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: is gas going up?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Send them one of our episodes.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and start then with Donald Trump and
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: crying uncle, which he says, Iran will now do.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yesterday, and the Oval Office getting asked about, hey,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: how long do you think this is gonna last? Anyway,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: and him gloating about what a brilliant strategy this whole
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: thing is.
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen, how long are you prepared to
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: maintain the blockade? Could that go somevering more moths?
• 2:56
  Speaker 6: Well, the blockade is genius. Okay, the blockade it has
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: been one hundred percent for proof. It shows how good
• 3:02
  Speaker 6: our navy is. I can tell you that nobody's going
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: to play games. We have the greatest military in the world,
• 3:08
  Speaker 6: and I built much of it during my first term
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: and we've been building it since Aran the same thing.
• 3:13
  Speaker 6: I mean, militarily, we've wiped them out. They have no
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: military left. It's all the navies at the bottom of
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: the sea. The air force is never going to fly again.
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: We've got an amazing military. Now they have to cry uncle,
• 3:28
  Speaker 6: that's all they.
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: Have to do, just say we give up, we give up.
• 3:34
  Speaker 6: That their economy is really in trouble.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: So he says Sager, it's a genius strategy. I don't
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: know whether he believes the stuff that he's saying about
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: their navy being complete le sunk and that their air
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: force will never fly again, but there are a lot
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: of reports in Western media that that is not remotely true.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: So look, this is the game now. He seems to
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: be betting that our economic blockade of Iran will be
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: enough to squeeze them, to force them to come and
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: to capitulate. And most people are looking at this and going, well,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: we've been doing the maximum pressure campaign on a run
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: economically for how long now, that didn't cause them to capitulate,
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: So I don't know why you think this time will
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: be different.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: So I don't think he actually believes it. I just
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: think that this is the worst best option because what
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: we know is in front of Donald Trump are three
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: separate ones. One is to basically just say we lost
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: and leave. It would be I mean, the biggest strategic
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: disaster for the United States at the very least since Vietnam.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Arguably maybe even more, like way more than a.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: Rock I think now at this point, just because of
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: the humiliation. Again, I'm not downplaying the level of casualties.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: I'm talking about a strategic level. The world's most powerful
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: military losing fifty percent of its interceptors and capacity in
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: a thirty eight day war, then you know, leaving the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: Straits of More moves effectively under Iranian control. I haven't
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: seen anything like that since the helicopter left the South
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: Vietnamese or the embassy in South Vietnam. It might even
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: be more, as Professor Pape has said, because it's not
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: like South Vietnam had control over twenty percent of the
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: world's oil supply, where we're non precedent at a time.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: So that's one option I would even honestly, at this point,
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: I would still advocate for that option, as disastrous as
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: it may be. We live in a new world. You
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: made a horrific gamble and you lost it. Pull it out,
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: no one to fold them right. The second option is
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: the blockade, which is maximum pressure without maximum pressure plus,
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: which is sanctions, regime, denial of oil, trying to get
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: to the Iranians to the table. The problem is they're
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: more unified and they have much more of a reason
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: to basically go all out to protect their economy. Their
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: civilian population knows exactly why they're suffering. It's because they're
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: literally under attack by an active war and a blockade.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: The other option would be some sort of a strike,
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: and actually we're hearing just this morning Sentcom and others
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: are preparing new plans for the president. Those will be
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: on his desk today in a situation room meeting, which
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: would basically restart a series of limited strikes, which we
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: all know how that would be, and it would lead
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: to more continuation.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Of the war.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: But all of this is trying to do the same
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: problem that we had in Vietnam. They want to break
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: the back of the enemy. They want them to cry uncle,
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: to give up. It just misunderstands. I mean, we couldn't
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: do with five hundred thousand ground troops in South Vietnam.
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: Not even the president, this current president wants to do that.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: So he doesn't want to strike more because it would
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: risk more of the Gulf oil assets.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: We have a lot to lose. The price of gas
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: is going sky high already. We have all these.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: Problems all over Asia. All of the US allies are
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: infurious with US. German what Chancellor, it's called us being humiliated.
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, we're watching a breakdown in the global empire,
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: and more of a strike would only lead to more
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: of that. An accelerated timeline. This is in some way
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: a face that we moved. But in another way, though,
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: it is a slow rolling disaster. Yes, we are going
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: to spend a huge portion of a show on today.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Everything that we've warned about with oil, it's all starting
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: to come true right now. As we've said, things don't
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: happen overnight. It takes a few months for the stuff
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: to get baked in. And it's bad, It's really bad.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: And now we're two months in and it's starting to
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: be the case that traders are realizing that there is
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: an immovable reality here because oil is not just some
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: stock that you trade, It is a real thing with
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: real substance behind it. That eventually that reality and the
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: traders are going to coalesce, and we're getting to that
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: point as it becomes increasingly clear that there really isn't
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: a taco on the table. I mean, that is what
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: they've been betting on. Also, I know Ryan is doing
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: some reporting's supposed to report next week about the way
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the Treasury has been directly intervening in the markets to
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: keep oil prices from spiking, but that also has a
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: limited shelf life and they may be running out of
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: mechanisms that they can use as well. But to your points, Soccer,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, the bottom line is here, we are defeated,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: and it's a question of whether we are going to
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: acknowledge that reality now or if we're going to acknowledge
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: it a month down the road, or three months down
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the road, or years down the road.
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: That is the question.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: How much pain are we going to take before we
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: acknowledge the reality that this was a loss.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: We are defeated.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: The world is not going to be the same, and
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: we have to reckon with that new reality. The alternative
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: to that, I suppose is you could do you know,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: full scale ground invasion, potential nuclear weapons. I mean, that
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: would be the other road to try to secure some
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: sort of quote unquote victory out of this thing. And
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: obviously the American people have no stomach for that. They
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: have not had any stomach for any of this. So
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: that is effectively where we are negotiating the terms of
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: our own defeat and the length of time before we
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: acknowledge the reality of what this war has meant and
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: what this war has truly revealed. That's the bottom line
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: of you know, wars reveal the actual state of the world,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: not the one that people in nation states had imagined exists.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: And that is not something that you're going to be
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: able to put back in the box at the same
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: time as put a two on the screen. So, you know,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: the Iranian's ability to continue to trade with the world
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: is very central obviously to this strategy of the total blockade,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: and there is no doubt that the American blockade has
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: reduced their ability to export oil, for example, but it
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: is also true that they are able to get around
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: the blockade in certain ways. They also have you know,
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: many land borders, so they can ship goods over land
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: as well. There are some indications they've got new deals
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: with Pakistan as well. In any case, this is a
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: report that fifty two Iranian ships were able to breach
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: the US blockade. This is all a very dangerous game
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: because you know, it doesn't take any much of anything
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: for us to return to a hot war. This is
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: an incredibly, incredibly unstable situation, and you have the Iranians
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: out saying that, you know, if you do take us
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: to the point where we are having to shut down
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: oil wells and those wells are being damaged, we consider
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: that an active war. We consider that equivalent to bombing
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: those oil wells, and we will respond in kind. They also,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: as we've talked about before, you know, more sort of
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: hawkish elements have consolidated. They have a lot of strength
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: because the logic that they have been pushing seems to
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: be the logic that makes the most sense to a
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: lot of people within Iran at this point, and because
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: the US and Israel have assassinated some of the more
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: reformist moderate types within the government, So that is something
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: to consider here as well. At the same time, Pete Hegseth,
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Secretary of War, was testifying before Congress. Yes, this is
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: the first time I believe he's testified before Congress since
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: they launched this war without consulting with Congress. And he
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: immediately gets caught up on this question of Hey, I
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: thought you said you obliterated the nuclear weapons program. How
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: does that square with now your justification that you had
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: to launch this war because of the nuclear weapons program
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: that you said you obliterated.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: They haven't broken yet. Okay, we haven't gotten there yet
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: for all of.
• 11:00
  Speaker 7: The well, their nuclear facilities have been obliterated underground, they're buried, and.
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: That so we know where any nuclear material we claim
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: my time, we're watching a second here.
• 11:11
  Speaker 8: We had to start this war, you just said sixty
• 11:15
  Speaker 8: days ago because the nuclear weapon was an imminent threat.
• 11:20
  Speaker 8: Now you're saying that it was completely obliterately.
• 11:22
  Speaker 7: Had not given up their nuclear ambitions, and they had
• 11:25
  Speaker 7: a conventional shield of thousands of operation midnight.
• 11:28
  Speaker 8: Here we com moment nothing of substance, exactly in the
• 11:32
  Speaker 8: point place we were before.
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: So much so their facilities are.
• 11:36
  Speaker 7: Bombed and obliterated. Their their ambitions continued.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: So their nuclear weapons rose bombed and obliterated.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, he's lying.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Second of all, soccer if you take him at face value,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: that we have to continue this until their ambitions are destroyed.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: What are you going to do, you know, like get
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: them in a room and use some psychotherapy, some mk
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: ultra style program to take the ambitions out of their mind.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's not something that a war can solve.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: So it commits you to endless engagement here, which is
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: exactly what you know, people like Hags that just goes
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: along with you know whatever. I don't think he's really
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: a player here other than just pushing Trump in the
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: most sycophantic way he possibly can. But this is what
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: the Israelis and the neocons want, is this idea that
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: we must continue, we must be in a hot war
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: until they give up even their nuclear the idea, even
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: the concept of possibly pursuing any sort of nuclear ambition.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the preposterous nature of it.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: And look, I mean the way that they technically try
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: to define ambition is to give up all highly enriched
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: uranium for twenty years. Let's be clear, they want a literal.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: They want to be able to come in, take all
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: the uranium out, give a twenty year moratorium on enrichment. Now,
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: the Uranians are not actually nearly as unreasonable as they
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: make them out to be. They said, look, we'll do
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: five years no enrichment. However, you have to allow us
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: to downblend that highly enriched uranium, and maybe some of
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: it can go to Russia and or on or the
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: inspections of some internet the IAEA. But for the administration,
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: they can't do five years because that would basically be
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: JCPOA plus two. Except now we've launched this massive war
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: and we're basically in the exact same position as we
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: were previously. In fact, the vast majority of the uranium
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: that we're trying to get away is exactly the uranium
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: which was enriched post JCPOA, and withdrawal of the war.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: They have eleven tons right now of highly in richy
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: right now we don't know where it is. There might
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: be other facilities. So that's the alleged definition of what
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: they're talking about. But by nebulously defining it as nuclear
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: ambition for however you want, the war can continue on
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: forever and again you know, we're going to do our
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: whole segment about who's gonna cry uncle first, Like I'm
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: putting my money on us actually, because I don't even
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: want to be paying what we're paying right now. Yeah,
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: let alone what we're going to pay in two months
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: from now.
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: The American people are already crying.
• 13:51
  Speaker 9: They should cry uncle.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, do it like we never wanted this to start with,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: and you know, no, we do not accept that this
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: is a reasonable trade off because we never bought in
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: to begin with. Meanwhile, for Iranians, it's existential. You have
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: strengthened the support. One of the things we're going to
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: talk about with the Lego video makers is these were
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: guys who are actually critical of this government, and now
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: they're out there turning out some of the most effective
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: pro Iran propaganda in the entire world. I think that's
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: incredibly emblematic of the way that you have actually strengthened
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: this government's position with these attacks. At the same time,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: you know, heg Seth was playing his whole like a
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: high a moral righteousness card. When one congressman described this
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: war as a quagmire, which I think is a very
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: accurate description of what we are because we are bogged
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: down in this thing. We can't figure out how to
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: get out of it, can't find an off ramp. Even
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: the German Chancellor is saying that there's no exit ramp
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: and that the entire nation is being humiliated. Let's go
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: ahead and take a listen to Pete on this one.
• 14:55
  Speaker 7: I hope you appreciate how reckless it is when I
• 14:58
  Speaker 7: said reckless fact listen, defeatist of Congressional Democrats at the beginning.
• 15:03
  Speaker 7: That came after watching you say the same thing on
• 15:05
  Speaker 7: CNN this morning. A quagmire. My generation served in a
• 15:10
  Speaker 7: quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan, years and years of nebulous
• 15:14
  Speaker 7: missions in utopian nation building that led us to nothing
• 15:18
  Speaker 7: what we have right now. The way you stain the
• 15:22
  Speaker 7: troops when you tell them two months in two months
• 15:26
  Speaker 7: in congressman, you should know better. Shame on you calling
• 15:29
  Speaker 7: this a quagmire. Two months in the effort, what they've undertaken,
• 15:33
  Speaker 7: what they've succeeded, the success on the battlefield that could
• 15:36
  Speaker 7: create strategic opportunities, the courage of a president confront and
• 15:39
  Speaker 7: nuclear Iran, and you call it a quagmire. Handing propaganda
• 15:43
  Speaker 7: to our enemies shame.
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: On you for that statement. And statements like that are
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: reckless to our troops.
• 15:47
  Speaker 7: Don't say I support the troops on one hand, and
• 15:49
  Speaker 7: then a two month mission is a quagmire. That's a
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: false equivalation. Who you cheering for here, who you're pulling for?
• 15:56
  Speaker 7: Our troops are doing incredible work. They've done incredible things
• 15:59
  Speaker 7: for the entirety of this mission and achieved incredible battlefield successes.
• 16:04
  Speaker 7: And you sit there and go on TV for your
• 16:06
  Speaker 7: clickbait about quagmires. It undermines the mission. Your hatred for
• 16:11
  Speaker 7: President Trump blind blinds you to the truth of the
• 16:15
  Speaker 7: success of this mission and the historic stakes that the
• 16:19
  Speaker 7: president is addressing, which the American people support.
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, welcoformative.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: If there's a decent portion of our audience which wasn't
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: alive in two thousand and two, that's what it was like.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: This is welcome back.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he criticized the war, I hate the truth, I
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: hate America freedom fries, all of that. That's exactly what
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: he's doing from a man who you know, claims to
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: have a critique now of the Iraq War and of
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: endless warmongering, but you know he loves to play to
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: the cameras and do this whole like, you know, let me.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, he wants Trump to see that and be
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: impressed with how tough he was and how much he
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: stood up to the Democrats, et cetera. It's just so obnoxious,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: and I think everybody, I don't know, I think everybody
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: sees through.
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: I think people see through it. I mean, at the
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: end of the day, look, we have almost an imperial system.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: Our Congress is gone like the you know, I've compared
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: it to Versailles. That's basically what we're living through. Let's
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: get the next one up there on the screen. This
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: is important too. Is at all signs of any potential
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: deal or movement. It's just not there. Trump has rejected
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Iran's offer and says a blockade stays until there is
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: a nuclear deal. And remember, whenever he says Iran won't
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: say they won't have a nuclear weapon, what he means
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: is they won't agree to a twenty year ban on enrichment.
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: That's what he actually is trying to say. So don't
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: let them define the terms, because they had the same
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: terms before the war. This was an interview with Barack
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: Revide and what he said basically is that the naval
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: blockade is going to stay until they cry uncle, as
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: he said on camera sentcom as they said, is preparing
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: a plan for a quote short and powerful wave of strikes. Now,
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: they kept saying weeks, not months. It's been two months.
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: It's actually been more than two months. As of today,
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: it's been two months in two days. So now what, Oh,
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: it's just going to be a short but power. Iran
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: has said that if strikes resumed, that they're not going
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: to stop.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know, to be honest, and we've talked about
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: this privately. I think that they're playing their cards incredibly incorrectly.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: The US and Israel were genuinely near the breaking point,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: especially Israel whenever it came to their munitions.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: The US was getting pretty close.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: To being like having to really pull in the big guns,
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: like completely draining all of the stockpiles from across the world.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: They decided to stop firing. It's also, you know, the
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: price of oil gas. They basically gave a reprieve to
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: the entire market. The oil prices today are right back
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: to where they were right before the ceasefire. But if
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: they had continued shooting, the oil price probably would have
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: gone to one forty two hundred.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Now I get it.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: I don't want my country destroyed and my power plants
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: killed and potential nuclear weapon used against me. So they're
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: trying their best to try to maintain like some semblance
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: of their infrastructure and their country while also balancing the
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: necessary time for defense. But right now they're almost in
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: a position where one of the reasons why Japan struck
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: the United States first from Pearl Harbor was exactly to
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: avoid this type of situation.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: And I'm not just finding Pearl Harbor. I'm just I'm
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: telling you why they thought they needed to do. They
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: were like, look, they cut the oil off. There was
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: an oil embargo. We have X number of days now.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: They've also said that they won't allow us to invade
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: the Dutch East Indies or these other places where there's
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: more oil. So we have two choices. We can capitulate
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: to the United States, and they believed that capitulation was
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: to withdraw from China, which for them unacceptable when I'm
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: talking about China specifically, not just Manchuria. So we cannot
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: compromise on this. So that means that we have no oil.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: We have two options.
• 19:41
  Speaker 9: We could strike the.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: United States, because we will inevitably get into a war
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: with them, or we can invade, and then we can
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: obviously face the wrath of the you know, the Pacific,
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: the Pacific Armada when the time comes. Well in that logic,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: which again no excuse, but they backed themselves into that
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: led them to the decision for Pearl Harbor. I think
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: this is honestly very similar. Like they want do not
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: want to be at the total mercy of the United
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: States Navy for a long period of time, that is
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: death on a long enough timeline. And they know that
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: they're not stupid, so they have a few things left
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: in their arsenal, which is basically asymmetric war and horizontal escalation,
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: to try and capitulate and force the world, to force
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: the US's hand, and to tank our markets, and to
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: make gas intolerable here in America. If there is a
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: short wave of strikes, that is almost certainly what is
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: going to happen. And I don't think that the guns
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: stop firing. We're lucky that the guns stop firing at all.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: It was very very unlikely that it were to actually
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: happen this time around. I just don't think so.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: I could be wrong, of course, but I really.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Do think this time it will also humiliate Gallibof and
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: Arachi and Pesch, you know, all of the people so
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: called moderates in their government who, let's be honest, they
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: have been pressing hard for a ceasefire.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: They have a lot to lose too. They're all very rich.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: They control a nice you know, country ish like you know,
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: for they've got decent positions and nice homes and IRGC
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: but like, you know, we're not. We're getting pretty close
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: to a point where that voice. Think about it, you know,
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: very think about it logically, like if in a government,
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: if you push a ceasefire and then the ceasefire is broken,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: which it already has been, and you're in INTERACTI war
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: and then you get struck again, why would that person
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: continue to have any leverage inside your government. It's like
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: Chamberlain and his government losing power after nineteen forty. They're like, look,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: you don't have the you know, you don't have the
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: necessary analytical decision making to lead.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Our country through this.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: Christ you have the stomach for those Yeah, you just don't.
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: So we have to go in with somebody else. That's
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: that's very I mean, it's not democratic, but it is.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: It is it's logical.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: In terms of who is running the country right now.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Even this framing from Axios of like, oh, Trump rejected this,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: you know, offer from Iran. The idea that there was
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: an offer from Iran was a manufactured you know baroqravihed
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Axios report before the market's open. What they're really and
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: this is based on scales rewarding. What there really was
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: is they were saying, look, we're not talking about anything
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: with you until the war stops, including the blockade. We
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: figure out this straight of horn moves thing. And by
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: figuring it out, they don't mean we're just going to
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: it's going to be wide open and go back to
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: what it was. They mean we're establishing a new reality
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: where we charge tolls and we basically are in control.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: And then at that point then maybe we can talk about,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: you know, the nuclear file. But they framed that as like, oh,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: a new offer from Iran.
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: What it actually was.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Was a it was a it was a worse position
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: from from the US perspective visa vi Iran. So in
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: other words, they strengthened their terms and said we're not
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: even going to talk about this stuff until we deal
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: with a new reality in the.
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: Straight of horm moves.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: But that was framed because they needed it for the
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: market opening, as like, oh, a new offer on the table.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: And so now no surprise that Trump says, well, I
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: don't like this offer because it was never really an
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: offer to begin with. In any case, we've got this
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: from the Wall Street Journal. Trump tells aids to prepare
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: for an extended blockade of Iran. You know we're looking
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: at now months and months. Trump originally thought that this
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: would be four days. He apparently told I think it
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: was the French that treat of Parsy was talking about.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: He told them, like, listen, if you wait a week,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: it's going to be too late to help us out here.
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: No, it was the UK.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: If you wait a week, it's going to be too
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: late here, because it's all going to be said and
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: done here. We are already two months later, and now
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: he's telling his aids and the US military, let's prepare
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: for a lengthy blockade. And as much as yes, the
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: blockade is very painful for Iran, I mean it also
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: requires an incredible expenditure of US military assets to maintain
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: this blockade as well, we've got three carrier groups in
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: the region already.
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's just a massive amount.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: We got some sense from Pete Hagsath, although he downplayed
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: the number there, of just how expensive this all is,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: how much taxpayer dollars is going to this every single day.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: And at the same time you also have voices in
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Trump's ear that he is considering strongly apparently that say, hey,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: we need to do you know, we need to strike
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: of the their capabilities around the Street of four Moves,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: and that'll be what changes the negotiating dynamics and brings
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: them to the table and forces them to capitulate as
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: if another bombing campaign, like we already bomb them a
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: lot along with Israel. You know, we had all sorts
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: of targets that we hit. You can listen to Pete
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: hag Seth brag about how many things we hit and
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: how much of their instructure we took out, how much
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: of their military assets, blah blah blah. You think one
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: war bombing campaign is really going to change the dynamic,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: that's foolish. I think in a lot of ways, the
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Iranians are looking for an excuse to go back to
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: war because of the dynamics that you're talking about here.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: They seem to be sensitive to being the first aggressors,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: the ones that are seen as the first aggressors. They
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: seem to really want to try to maintain that moral
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: high ground. Can you question whether or not that is
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: the right strategy or not, but that does seem to
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: be their approach. So I think they would be happy
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: to have some strike from the US to give them
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: justification to continue on that horizontal escalation path that they
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: were pursuing previously.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you just keep looking at that. This
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: seems unsustainable to me.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: I just do not believe that the Iranians could withstand
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: three months of blockade without a resumption of hostilities. First
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: of all, I mean, let's remember what blockade even means.
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: Blockade doesn't just mean stopping ships. It means boarding the
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: ones and seizing them where potential fire drone attacks. I mean, look,
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: if you're a carrier and you're heading out and you
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: know you may be seized, what are you gonna do?
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: What would the United States do?
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: Well, you can start putting guns on board, maybe bombs.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: Maybe you would even set it up as some sort
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: of a sabotage attack. I'm not like leaking secrets to
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: the enemy. This has all happened before in the history
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: of blockades. It's just you can see the logical pattern
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: this would go. And also the cost to the United
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: States because you're talking about care strikers. It's not just
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: that everybody at the Pentagon getting paid overtime and all
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: the spy satellites and the level of attention, and I mean,
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: this is a crisis across the globe.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: I was just you know, I was just tweeted about
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: this yesterday.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: Japan Airlines get this, is now charging a surcharge of
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: three hundred and fifty dollars per per ticket for aviation
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: three fifty per ticket any flight North America and Europe.
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: That's more than double what it was before. South Korean
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: airlines are all doing the same and they were originally
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: just going to do it for June and now they're
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: doing it for May. By the time June and July hits,
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: there will be no surcharge because there'll be no flight.
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: Like that's what we're trying to, you know, articulate for
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: the rest of the world. You know, I was reading again,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: like Japanese citizens seventy percent of them want the government
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: to Institute Energy Conservation because they can see the riding
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: on the wall, and their Prime Minister's like, oh, don't
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: worry about it.
• 26:52
  Speaker 9: We have enough.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Like no, you don't, you actually don't. You have maybe
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: enough oil for two hundred days.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: You're burning through it like already, and a lot of
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: it is trying to keep the pressure down. China is
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: also you know there, you know we talk about grand strategy.
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: The Chinese originally had an oil export ban. Well they
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: just took it off, and now the Australians are bowing
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: down at their feet saying thank you because they're getting
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: a bunch of jet fuel from them. So the Chinese
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: are using this as a major piece of leverage, selling
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: oil to whoever they can. The Russians, I mean that
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: goes without saying the amount of you know, influence that
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: they've been able. They're doing backflips in the Kremlin over
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: this entire exercise. One hundred and twenty dollars a barrel.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: We just gave them enough in a year probably to
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: fund the Russian war machine for five more years. In
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: the war in Ukraine, like it has been a disaster,
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: and so the last thing there in terms of costs,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: I just love this. It's a good transition for economy.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Here is Rocana versus Pete Hegsath on the cost of
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Americans food and gas as a result of the war,
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: and Pete Heggsath's response is, take a listen.
• 27:55
  Speaker 10: You know how much it will cost Americans in terms
• 27:57
  Speaker 10: of their increased cost in gas and food over the
• 28:01
  Speaker 10: next year because of the Iran or.
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: I would simply ask you what the cost is of
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: an I'm going to give you that.
• 28:09
  Speaker 7: I would simply ask you what the play got your
• 28:12
  Speaker 7: questions about things?
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: I'm not you're asking.
• 28:14
  Speaker 10: You're saying it's a gotcha question to ask what it's
• 28:17
  Speaker 10: going to be in terms of the increase.
• 28:18
  Speaker 7: Why won't you ask what it costs to prevent Iran
• 28:21
  Speaker 7: from getting a nuclear Can give you that, sir, But
• 28:22
  Speaker 7: let me what would it cost? What would you pay
• 28:24
  Speaker 7: to ensure Iran doesn't get a nuclear bomb? Do you
• 28:27
  Speaker 7: what would you pay?
• 28:28
  Speaker 10: I reclaim my time? Do you not know? You and
• 28:30
  Speaker 10: no one do the analysis of what the increased cost
• 28:32
  Speaker 10: of gas and food and the American people are going
• 28:34
  Speaker 10: to be?
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: What is the cost of Iran.
• 28:37
  Speaker 7: And holding that straight an issue with nuclear weapons, it's
• 28:39
  Speaker 7: six hundred and thirty one billion dollars, which means it's
• 28:42
  Speaker 7: an increase of five thousand dollars a year for American households.
• 28:47
  Speaker 10: Now, let me give you this point. You're saying that
• 28:49
  Speaker 10: your operation is preventing a nuclear Iran. Will you acknowledge
• 28:54
  Speaker 10: that there is an economic cost to the American people
• 28:58
  Speaker 10: for doing what you believe is suri to make Iran?
• 29:01
  Speaker 6: Uh?
• 29:01
  Speaker 10: The nuclear Will you acknowledge the economic cost?
• 29:04
  Speaker 7: We have an incredible economic team that's managing this better
• 29:07
  Speaker 7: than but what the previous administrationwledge the previous administration, you
• 29:13
  Speaker 7: don't even know what the you know what administration might
• 29:17
  Speaker 7: and you're gonna die, Economy, You know what is upsett incredible?
• 29:21
  Speaker 10: You didn't even do the analysis and how much it's
• 29:23
  Speaker 10: costing the American people. It's one thing if you said, okay,
• 29:26
  Speaker 10: cost the American people five thousand dollars, but we think
• 29:28
  Speaker 10: it's worth it. Uh, That's what we've done in World
• 29:31
  Speaker 10: War Two, in other wars. Here's what it costs. You
• 29:33
  Speaker 10: gotta pay for it. You don't even know what the
• 29:36
  Speaker 10: average American is paying. You don't know what we paid
• 29:39
  Speaker 10: in terms of the missiles that hit the Iranian school.
• 29:41
  Speaker 10: You don't know what we're paying in terms of gas.
• 29:43
  Speaker 10: You don't know what we're paying in terms of food.
• 29:44
  Speaker 10: Your twenty five billion number is totally off. It's the incompetence.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Imagine calling the like queries about gas and food prices
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: a gotcha question, like imagine and all he has it's like, oh,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: it's it's worth it, Like how much would you pay
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: to keep a run from pursuing a nuclear weapon? Which
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: again is like, hey, I thought y'all said you obliterated
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: this nuclear program, and you know what, we didn't have
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: to pay anything because we had a deal called the
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: JCPOA that you all got out of in the first
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Trump administration, and then this time around there were negotiations
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: for an even you know better from a US perspective,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: deal that you destroyed because you decided you wanted to
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: bomb them instead. So you know, they create this false,
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: this false narrative that it was necessary to pay you know,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: five dollars per gallon gasoline with no end in sight,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: in order to achieve some sort of blow against the
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Irani's nuclear ambitions. You have made it more likely they
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: pursue a nuclear weapon. We're paying, you know, at the
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: pump and food prices are going to go up, and
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: the economy is going to be hit. We're going to
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: lose jobs and all, and we're risking a global depression
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: to end up in a worse situation with the straight
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: of hormones closed and then more likely to.
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: Pursue a clear weapons conatulation.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: New announceis just came out today.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Half of the estimated tax refund has already been gone
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: as a result of gas.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: So okay, half of.
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: The estimated increased tax refund. By the way, the majority
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: of that refund went to boomers, so you know, he're
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: the people who are who got the refund, and now
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: you're paying more for gas.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: So there's that.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: There's also this point about the nuclear how much would
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: you pay to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon?
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: I can virtuely guarantee you that outside of Washington and
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: at in like Teyarangulus, that there was nobody on February
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: twenty seventh who was like, I cannot sleep at night
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: because of the nuclear ambitions, the fake nuclear ambitions of
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: the Ayatola Commanee.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Nobody the vast.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: Majority of people who went to bed on February twenty
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: seventh and opened woke up like somebody else did at
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: four I think four thirty am on February twenty.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Eight, checked their phone, was like, oh, here we go.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: H it was.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: It had nothing to do with whether we were going
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: to go to whether Iran was going to get a
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: nuclear weapon. It came out of nowhere. And even when
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: the war was happening, not that many people were dying. Yeah,
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: some stuff was blowing up. We have a vague awareness.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: But again, the ninety nine percent of people, they're not
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: watching our show or any other news. They're just going
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: to the pump and they're like, huh, that's up. Trump
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: says it'll be over soon. Okay, Now it's starting to
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: set in. Now is when people and I think the
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: Normanis are all starting to be like.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Oh wow, wait, wait wait. He said it was going
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: to be over in a few weeks.
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: He said there will be a three It's actually four
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: fifty now a gallon. Right now, I think the national
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: price of gas today is four thirty. It will be
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: four to fifty probably by the end of the month,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: and it'll be five within two months. If nothing changes
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: as a result, it could be even six dollars a gallon.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: If this continues for a long period of time, and
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: then the shock effects from there are crazy. I mean
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: I was looking yesterday the price of oil Brent crude
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: oil is up ninety nine percent.
• 32:48
  Speaker 9: You're to date.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is a crisis.
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: And nobody, nobody on February twenty seven, So that that
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: was worth it in order to be in this WARLD
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: They might retroactively a lot of the propagandas may maybe,
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: but the vast majority of people say that this is
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: complete bullshit.
• 33:03
  Speaker 9: So yeah, if that's what you got, good.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: Luck, Yeah to you seriously collect them there.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Right, let's get to the economy. Turning now to the economy.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: We've mentioned it quite a bit, and the theory that
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: President Trump laid out is who's going to cry uncle first?
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: So this was elucidated, I think very well.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: In an interesting exchange between Congressman Seth Moulton and Secretary Hegseeth,
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: let's take a listen.
• 33:26
  Speaker 11: How much has Iran profited from your administration lifting the
• 33:30
  Speaker 11: sanctions on Iran when you started this war?
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: I can tell you Iran is financially devastated right now.
• 33:37
  Speaker 11: Okay, well, junction without fourteen billion.
• 33:40
  Speaker 7: Operation economic fury, They're at a point where between the
• 33:43
  Speaker 7: blockade and what we've done to the militarily.
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: Remember, they don't have a navy, they can't contest the blockade.
• 33:47
  Speaker 11: Okay, between what we've done to the very few options,
• 33:52
  Speaker 11: how many Chinese missiles can they buy for fourteen billion dollars?
• 33:55
  Speaker 11: Does that sound like winning?
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: They're not. We're ensuring and they're not buying Chinese missiles.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: They're not buying missiles.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: Not so sure about that, But it actually highlights a
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: good point, which is remember during the war, Iran made
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: more from oil export than it ever had in modern history.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: By removing sanctions and more, the estimate is in the
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: tens of billions of dollars. Now, obviously they are feeling
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: the pain right now. But as Trump said, somebody has
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: to cry uncle.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: First. First, let's start with the Iranian economy. How is it?
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: It's kind of hard to know. Let's put the next
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: one up here on the screen from the Wall Street Journal.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: Take it with a grain of salt. They say, Iranians
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: feel the pain as their economy descends into a death spiral.
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: So what they point out is that businesses are closing,
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: unemployment is soaring, and food is increasingly unaffordable war has
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: imposed a heavy cost. More than a million people are
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: out of work, soaring food prices in a prolonged internet
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: shutdown has slammed online businesses. Talks between the two have stalled.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: There is a big question right now, not only about
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: the the Iranian employment rate, but it's surely about oil,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: which is the backbone of their entire society. Nearly a
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: million people and another million people indirectly have been said
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: to be out of work and are looking for work
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: in a significant portion of the twenty five million people
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: who are normally employed in Iran. And the cost of
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: living has reached some sixty seven percent in the month
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: through the mid April. So obviously that is a disaster. However,
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: let's point a few things in the government's favor. Usually,
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: governments who are under attack have civilian populations which are
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: willing to take immense cost, even if it means that
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: they have to continue a war which is not even
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: that popular. Now, let's say and take let's Ukraine for example.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: One of the projections here in the United States was
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: we can cripple Iranian GDP by ten percent. Ukraine was
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: able to mount a sufficient fighting force. Yes, with a
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: huge amount of US support, et cetera. With a twenty
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: percent reduction in GDP, a twenty percent reduction and they
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: still are able.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: To continue to fight to this day.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: Yes, they're basically backs by the United States and by
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: NATO and all these other countries. But it's not like
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: Iran doesn't have its own lifelines so that it can call.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: If it needs to.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: So just the idea that a ten percent reduction will
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: lead to immediate capitulation has almost no bearing in history
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: whenever the stakes are completely existential. Now, on the other hand,
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: you're going to have the North Vietnamese strategy, which they
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: would often say out loud, they are Look, you may
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: have killed a million of.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Our soldiers, We don't care.
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: We will keep fighting until our country is no longer
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: under attack and this North and South are unified. You
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: have all these domestic problems at home.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: You are not.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: Going to nearly be able to keep up the fight
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: as long as we are. And if that's the total
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: war mindset of Iran, I have no doubt that they
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: will outlast a lot of the consternation and really, like
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: you know, a social explosion here in the United States
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: for what will come for a prolonged period. Because you know,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: I was talking about this with a friend recently about
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: gas because they were like, Osagar, if you're theory was correct,
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: why didn't people revolt over Biden when gas was five
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: dollars a gallon? I was like, well, they kind of did.
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: They voted off as the vice president.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: So there's that.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: But two people, hardcore Democrats, especially at the time, they
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: actually bought that bullshit about Putin's price hike, remember in
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: that whole campaign, And at the very least what people
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: could appreciate is it's not one hundred percent Biden's fault,
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: like it was indirectly his fault, but it wasn't one hundred.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: It's not like he didn't launch it washes the ones
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: that invaded and you also had part of it was
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: also COVID cod shocks, which are.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: You know correct, contributed victorial. Yeah, this is one hundred.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Percent your fault. That is a very different political landscape.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Like we all know, gas was two ninety on the
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: day of February twenty seventh. Now it's four thirty. So
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: whose fault is it? It's and he's taking credit.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: He's that.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: I'm proud to do it. I'm happy to do it.
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: That's a full roll over and over again. So to
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: choose this is actually very different than being thrust by
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: the forces of history and mismanaging a crisis, as opposed
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: to entering a crisis at your total behest with the
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: knowledge that this may happen, Like the actual effect on
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: the population level of that is going to be radically
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: different whenever it comes to crying uncle, because we're like,
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: hey man, we didn't want this, We didn't want you
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: to do it. Then you did it, and we said no,
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: and then you kept it going and we keep saying no.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: It's a very very different.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Democratic Well, and to your point, there actually was a revolt,
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: and not just here but around the world. Act almost
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: every incumbent party got thrown out in the entire world.
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: Because of inflation.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: So whether people were directly attributing it to the Ukraine
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: War and you know, our role in deciding to continue
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: that and blow up any sort of a peace deal
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: or not, they blamed leaders for inflation when there were
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: more historical forces at play. Whereas here, you know, and
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: you also have you know, people are still pissed off
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: about the tariffs and the thought that was insane. So
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the negative impacts on the economy have come directly from Trump,
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: and he is quick to to you know, take credit
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: for it all the way around. You know, the other
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: interesting thing in this article from the Wall Street Journal
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: about Iran's economy is they talk about how the Iranian
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: government has put in place a variety of supports. Both
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: they've increased wages, They've also you know, provided more in
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: terms of like food assistance, which also speaks to the
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: fact that they did earn some money during this war
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: so that they're able to offer those sorts of social
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: supports to.
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: Help to ease the burden here.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: But you know, there's no doubt that, of course, they're
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: going to suffer if the blockade continues longer. But if
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: you just think about it, logically, we've been doing the
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: maximum pressure campaign for years at this point. You know,
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: we've been trying to crush Iran for literally decades. Think
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: about Cuba, same thing for decades and decades. We've been
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: trying to squeeze them and make life so miserable and
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: cut them off from the world that eventually their quote
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: unquote regime will fall.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: It has not worked. It has not worked.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: So why you think this time around maybe if we
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: just do it a little harder, that's going to be
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: the key. There really is no historical precedent for that
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: ultimately working out. And then you know, Iran has some
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: flexibility in the way that they respond and much like Russia,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: you know, had thought through. Okay, if the sanctions full
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: sanctions are levied against US, they planned and prepared for
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: how they would be able to maneuver and how would
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: they would be able to handle that. Well, Iran has
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: been contemplating this for years as well, and they do
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: have some options we can be to be here up
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: on the screen. This is what I was referring to
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: earlier about how they have a variety of land routs.
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: You know, they they are not just on the water.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: There are also countries that they border with that they
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: have reasonable relationships with as well. Pakistan in particular appears
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: to be working.
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: Together with them.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: They say Iranian container ships are now docking in Karachi
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: and other ports to tranship cargo overland into Iran. This
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: analyst says recent number three hund and forty two Trump's
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: blockade won't work a run as a continental state with
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: plenty of alternate transit routs, so they will pursue that
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: now that it's going to completely make up for the
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: fact that this blockade is in place, but it does
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: give them some other options. At the same time, you've
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: had yesterday a significant decision here from the FED Chair
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: Jerome Pal, speaking about how he's concerned about inflation, and
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: so Trump has been thirsting after this interest rate cut,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: which you previously I actually would have supported. Now I
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: think that that rationale is evaporating as we increasingly push
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: towards likely higher inflation due to the cost of fuel
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: and the way that will ripple throughout the entire economy.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: So in any case, rates are staying exactly where they are.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to Fed Chair
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: Jerome Pal justifying that decision.
• 41:52
  Speaker 12: Inflation has moved up and is elevated, in part reflecting
• 41:55
  Speaker 12: the recent increase in global energy prices. Today, the decided
• 42:00
  Speaker 12: to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current
• 42:04
  Speaker 12: stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward
• 42:08
  Speaker 12: our maximum employment and two percent inflation goals. Developments in
• 42:13
  Speaker 12: the Middle East are contributing to a high level of
• 42:15
  Speaker 12: uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive
• 42:19
  Speaker 12: to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: He ties it the decision directly to the war in
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Iran and the way that could impact inflation.
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And you know, let's continue kind of down
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: this theory is. I was just reminded. I had to
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: look up the book. I had to read it when
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: I was in graduate school, and it was about it's
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: called the Great Illusion, and it was this very pollyannish
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: theory in nineteen oh nine where we can't have war.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Because it'll cost too much money. It was right before
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: the Great War.
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: And actually there was a theory in the opening days
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: of the Guns of August where they were like, guys,
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: the war will be over soon because we're all going
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: to go broke. There's no way that we get sustain
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: is what ended up happening. They're like, Okay, we're going
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: to nationalize all industry. Currency will be completely you know,
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: deepegged from gold, and we're going all in. We'll take
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: as many loans as possible. Whenever things get existential, all
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: the previous rules go out the window. And at this point, look,
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: you're forgiven for thinking that in the year nineteen oh nine,
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: in the year twenty twenty six, saying, oh, maximum pressure
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: is gonna work. I mean, how long we've had sanctions
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: on Iran two thousand and nine, So it's been almost
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: fifteen years of crushing sanctions on the country, with a
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: brief break during the JCPOA. This country is more sanctioned, proved,
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: and ready and able to survive it than aiming probably
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: other in the world except for maybe China and Russia. Now,
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: as a result of what happened to them, their population,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: at the very least, they came close to a revolt,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: and even then the revolt was put down, yes, violently,
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: but that happens sometimes, and it didn't succeed. And if
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: they were going to revolt, they would have in the
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: opening days of the war. Instead, we've seen a massive
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: surge in nationalism continuing on our front. For why I
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: think there'll be a revolt here put before up here.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: On this April consumer sentiment just came in at the
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: lowest on record. Quote, anxiety about the war in Iran
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: has left Americans in the grimest economic mood on record.
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment has now dropped to
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: forty nine point eight from fifty three point three last month.
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: That is pro low the previous low seen in June
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: of twenty twenty two when shoppers feared searing inflation, and
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: the worst reading in more than fifty year history of
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: the Michigan survey. So this means that we now have
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: a lower reading on how people are feeling about inflation
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: on than Biden did whenever gas was at five dollars
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: a gallon.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: So now imagine when gas.
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: Does hit five dollars a gallon or six dollars a gallon,
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: and you're seeing, you know, more of these churning forces
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: in our economy. Now you may ask, then, Sager, Then
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: if that's true, then why is the s and P
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: five hundred up.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: It's actually a very simple story. Let's put this one
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: up here. I was just reading all about it this morning.
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: Is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are now collectively
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: spending more than the Manhattan Project did every single month,
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: and more than twelve times a Manhattan Project every year
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: on AI. The total number is three quarters of a
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: trillion dollars just this year, with an allocated four hundred
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: and fifty billion the year before. So if you add
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: that up, that's what like one point three trillion dollars,
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: which is I don't know, one fifteenth of the entire
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: US economy GDP and just spent on AI development by
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: these big four companies in the last two years. That's
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: why the markets are up. That's why Google stock is
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: going sky high. Their profits are really high and they're
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: spending a ton of money. MetaStock is down six percent,
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: Oh boohoo, it's actually still up very very much. You know,
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: in the last few years, all based on AI sentiment,
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: Open Ai and Video, all these other companies are booming,
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: all these chip makers. That's the reason why the markets
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: are up. And I will remind you all that while
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: the Biden years were the worst years I think in
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: modern American history at an economic individual level, that the
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: S and P, if you look at it over the
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: four year period, was up by sixty percent. Are you
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: sixty percent better off? Yes, if you own the stock. No,
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: if you had I don't know, had to spend gas,
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: or buy a house, or do anything, buy health insurance,
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: any of these other like basic staples of life.
• 46:16
  Speaker 9: That is the core problem.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: So don't just look at markets to reflect your reality.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: You've had way.
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: Too much evidence now in modern years to know that
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: this is not the case.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and in fact, I think they're increasingly a counter indicator,
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: as you know, with AI being the main investment vehicle
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: and being mostly what is propping up our economy, because
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, when Google is massively spending to build out
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: their AI infrastructure, is that benefiting you No, Actually, it's
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: probably going to destroy a lot of jobs if it
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: is successful.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: That is the goal.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: And also you know what it looks like is like
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: data centers in your community, which at best have you know,
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: they have short term you create construction jobs, but over
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: the long term they create basically no joy like, very
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: few long term jobs and investments in communities. So you know,
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: there's another number that just came out this morning that
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: also indicates the way that the economy has come apart.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: So the fortunes of you know, the top corporations and
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: also the wealthiest individuals are completely divorced from the reality
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: that most people experience. So you had annualized GDP growth
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: of two percent, which is not great, but it's not
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: like you know, it's not devastating, it's not negative. And
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: what they point to is this major AI investment is
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: what is propping that up. Alongside you have the top
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: third of income earners who continue to spend at effectively
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: the same rates, and that's what's propping up the entire economy.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: So if you aren't in those you know, top consumer,
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: in the top incomes the centile, if you aren't benefiting
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: from the massive data center of Manhattan project a month
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: AI spend and you're in the rest of the you know,
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: two thirds to eighty percent of the nation, you are
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: getting screwed. Your reality is coming apart from the rest.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: And so you know, it creates actually real problem for
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: like a democracy problem because that pressure that would come
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: and what Trump watches most closely is the markets.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: That pressure that should come, that should push.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Him towards getting out of this thing in some sort
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: of way, is mitigated very much by the unequal nature
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: of society. At the same time, I do want to
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: point out, you know, one area that is not looking
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: so hot and that he does also closely watch is
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: the bond market. So we can the b six up
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: on the screen. This is from Kobezi letter. This is
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: the US treasury market. Incredibly important because why this is
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: how expensive is it for us to finance our debt?
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: That's what The bottom line here is, and they write,
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: the bond market is collapsing again. Ten year note yield
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: is now silently back above four point four percent. That's
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: the exact same level that has led to multiple market
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: interventions by President Trump. Simply put, the US economy cannot
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: afford the ten year note yield rise substantially above current levels,
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: as we saw in April twenty twenty five and March
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. President Trump is highly attentive to the
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: four point five percent level on the ten year note yield,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: which we previously labeled as.
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: Our policy pivot point.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: At the current pace, we could see four point five
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: percent within a matter of days. Meanwhile, US oil prices
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: are above one hundred eight dollars a barrel. Gas prices
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: are up another five percent today, thirty year mortgage rates
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: are at six point five percent. Bond market will soon
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: become the center of attention. And the thirty year note
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: yield has actually hit five percent at this point, which
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: is a significant marker. And you know, these may seem
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: like small movements, but this is something the President has
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: paid close attention to and for good reason. And what
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: it means is, you know that we have to pay
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: people more to hold our debt. It is assigned by
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: the way of a lack of confidence in our country
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: and in our economy. And that's part of why it's
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: so significant when there are even small movements in the
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: bond market.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly.
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: And look overall, I think you can look at our
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: consumer sentiment. You can look at the gas price of
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: where we are today. It's four thirty a gallon.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: I just checked.
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: It just crossed six dollars a gallon statewide in California,
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: which is the highest in the nation. Our producer Griffin says,
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: in Los Angeles, it's not uncommon to see seven dollars
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: a gallon. And let's you know, put it into context.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: So is in I believe California's the most populous state.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: I think like fourteen million people something like that. A
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: lot of people live there, So fourteen million people are
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: paying six dollars a gallon. That means the vast majority
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: of Americans between California, Texas, New York, and Florida, the
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: most populous states, only one of those has gas that's
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: less than four bucks a gallon, and are spending orders
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: of magnet like billions of dollars. The average current estimate
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: is currently costing seventy dollars a month in additional dollars
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: per household. I mean doesn't sound like a lot, but
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: seventy times twelve, that's over five hundred bucks whenever it
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: comes to an entire year, which is basically the site
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: savings for the average household. I wish it were more,
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: it's not. So you can easily see how this can
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: like spiral completely out of control.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: And that's just at four thirty.
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: So Trump thinks that they'll cry outcle I'm pretty skeptical.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: I think America is already crying on Gole and will
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: continue to do, and frankly should they should continue to do. So, Okay,
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: we've got our friend Roy Johnson standing by. He's going
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: to talk about the oil markets and what's happening. Let's
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: get to it. Joining us now is our great friend
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: of the show, Roy Johnson. He is the founder and
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: editor of Commodity Context on Substack, which we'll have a
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: link down in the description.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us, Rory reappreciate it.
• 51:33
  Speaker 9: Thanks for having me.
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: Good morning guys, Good morning, So Rory, big news yesterday.
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: Let's put it up here on the screen from the
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: Financial Times, oil topped some one hundred and twenty dollars
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: as Trump signaled an extended horror moves standoff. As I
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: understand it, that is down more this morning, more as
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: a result of contracts expiring. But these two things still
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: put oil at a very very high price relative to
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: where they were obviously before the war started, even where
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: the ceasepiery is. What are we seeing right now in
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: the oil markets and what can the world begin to expect.
• 52:07
  Speaker 13: Yeah, so before that sell off you mentioned this morning
• 52:08
  Speaker 13: and again on the last day of Brent's contract expiry.
• 52:12
  Speaker 13: So these are the monthly contracts that roll off at
• 52:14
  Speaker 13: the end of every month. You get a lot of
• 52:16
  Speaker 13: volatility in the last day of the of the contract.
• 52:19
  Speaker 13: In today's that day, So we're getting a lot of
• 52:20
  Speaker 13: that that volatility the downside, because we've got a lot
• 52:23
  Speaker 13: of it to the upside. Yesterday overnight we saw Brent
• 52:26
  Speaker 13: prompt futures contracts rise to above one hundred and twenty
• 52:29
  Speaker 13: five dollars a barrel, and I think even more importantly
• 52:32
  Speaker 13: that was for June.
• 52:33
  Speaker 9: Even more importantly, July rose above one thirteen and.
• 52:36
  Speaker 13: I think it's actually that July contract that's about to
• 52:38
  Speaker 13: become the front of the curve and is even more important.
• 52:41
  Speaker 13: I think this, you know, what's going on, the same
• 52:44
  Speaker 13: thing that's been going on for two months.
• 52:45
  Speaker 9: The straight of horse hormones remains closed.
• 52:47
  Speaker 13: We are now down more than six hundred million barrels
• 52:49
  Speaker 13: of unproduced oil to date at this stage, guaranteeing at
• 52:53
  Speaker 13: least a one billion barrel hit to global.
• 52:56
  Speaker 9: Supply for the year. And I think the price is
• 52:58
  Speaker 9: just finally beging to reflect that.
• 53:00
  Speaker 13: I think, as you noted there, in addition to this,
• 53:02
  Speaker 13: there have been comments and reporting on the White Houses
• 53:04
  Speaker 13: thinking that maybe just another two months of Block eight
• 53:07
  Speaker 13: and Iran would weaken their position and make them more
• 53:10
  Speaker 13: amenable to compromise. But you know, sure it might make
• 53:13
  Speaker 13: Ran more compliant, it's going to make the rest of
• 53:16
  Speaker 13: the world far more desperate as well.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: Can we put C three up on the screen. This
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: was your analysis from yesterday that I want you to
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: explain to us.
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: You said, there she goes.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: US commercial petroleum inventories fell by a headline seventeen million
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: barrels plus another seven point one million barrels of spr
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: CREWD draws thirteen of what is that mmbbl what is.
• 53:39
  Speaker 9: That million million barrels?
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Okay, million barrel's total crude draw anyway, Explain to us
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: why this was significant to you what you're seeing in
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: these numbers.
• 53:48
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 53:48
  Speaker 13: So, one of the things that's been weird about the
• 53:50
  Speaker 13: crisis so far, and I think has stunted the oil
• 53:54
  Speaker 13: market's ability or kind of willingness to bid these prices higher,
• 53:58
  Speaker 13: is that US inventories, who are the most visible inventories
• 54:01
  Speaker 13: in the oil market, released every week by the Energy
• 54:03
  Speaker 13: Information Administration from the Department of Energy, those actually showed
• 54:08
  Speaker 13: inventories pretty high, not just for all products, but for
• 54:10
  Speaker 13: crude specifically, and what we had been anticipating. So this
• 54:14
  Speaker 13: goes back to Trump's new fascination with these tanker maps
• 54:18
  Speaker 13: of all of these tankers steaming towards the US Gulf
• 54:21
  Speaker 13: coast to pick up.
• 54:21
  Speaker 9: Crude for a Hormuz starved market.
• 54:24
  Speaker 13: Eventually, those those you know, tankers were going to spike
• 54:27
  Speaker 13: in ports, which they're doing, and it's going to start
• 54:29
  Speaker 13: drawing down domestic US inventories. And I think that is
• 54:32
  Speaker 13: the signal the market needs to say, oh wow, this
• 54:35
  Speaker 13: scarcity is here. So total, in total, you had a
• 54:37
  Speaker 13: twenty three or twenty four million barrel draw in total
• 54:41
  Speaker 13: petroleum stocks, and that's normally you normally get a build
• 54:44
  Speaker 13: of let's say plus or minus five million.
• 54:47
  Speaker 9: That's kind of a normal range.
• 54:48
  Speaker 13: So this is much much larger and I think indicates
• 54:51
  Speaker 13: that what we expected to be coming is starting, which
• 54:54
  Speaker 13: is basically the rest of the world sending tankers in
• 54:57
  Speaker 13: order to try and buy oil from North of America
• 55:00
  Speaker 13: because the rest of the world is currently willing to
• 55:02
  Speaker 13: pay more for oil than as North America. And this
• 55:05
  Speaker 13: is going to be The result is our inventories are
• 55:06
  Speaker 13: going to draw down here until we bet our prices
• 55:09
  Speaker 13: up high enough to keep those barrels at home.
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: Okay, So then let's run through that scenario. So what
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: does that look like? So one of the reasons, again
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: as a layman I'm looking at it, is when we
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: draw the inventory low, could.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: We run out of oil?
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: Or or is it going to be that the price
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: goes so high that all of us are paying six
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: six fifty dollars a gallon for gas. Let's take the
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: White House at its word. Currently, who knows what it is?
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: Two more months, this will continue all of these isn't
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: the journey time, It's like a month or so already
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: in terms of the tankers, So what does that start
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: to look like in terms of the price physically for
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: everybody with as you have very well educated us, it's
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: about the refined products for the things that we actually use.
• 55:51
  Speaker 13: Yeah, so that's exactly right. So I don't think the
• 55:53
  Speaker 13: United States is going to run out of oil. And
• 55:55
  Speaker 13: again people are like, oh, rory wells, where's zero on
• 55:58
  Speaker 13: that chart that you showed?
• 55:59
  Speaker 9: Zero is not really a relevant number.
• 56:01
  Speaker 13: Because if we got to zero, we and the rest
• 56:04
  Speaker 13: of the oil market is already basically dead. So we
• 56:07
  Speaker 13: basically need to stop inventories from drawing down too much
• 56:11
  Speaker 13: because you have operational minimums. The whole idea of the
• 56:14
  Speaker 13: oil market is it's this giant flowing chemistry set, and
• 56:17
  Speaker 13: the flowing aspect is important. It needs to keep flowing
• 56:19
  Speaker 13: every day at roughly the same rate. These stocks are
• 56:23
  Speaker 13: there to basically even out the natural imbalances between production
• 56:26
  Speaker 13: and consumption. When you don't have them, you get into
• 56:29
  Speaker 13: much tighter, spikier markets, which did you know, the deeper
• 56:32
  Speaker 13: we go is basically a lack of liquidity in kind
• 56:36
  Speaker 13: of the pricing for those barrels. So my expectation is
• 56:39
  Speaker 13: that we're going to keep drawing down North American barrels
• 56:41
  Speaker 13: until prices rise.
• 56:43
  Speaker 9: But given that North America is wealthy and.
• 56:45
  Speaker 13: Has a relatively low price sensitivity for our demand for
• 56:48
  Speaker 13: petroleum products, I have no doubt that North Americans will
• 56:51
  Speaker 13: be able to pay the prices that will keep those
• 56:53
  Speaker 13: barrels there. But I think, really, I think this is
• 56:56
  Speaker 13: kind of a narrative check. The President had become obsessed
• 56:59
  Speaker 13: with this idea that US energy dominance, the United States
• 57:02
  Speaker 13: was going to be a net beneficiary of hormones being
• 57:05
  Speaker 13: closed and the spike in energy prices, and he only
• 57:08
  Speaker 13: saw it through the lens of export increases, which again
• 57:11
  Speaker 13: we know that the Trump is obsessed with forms of trade,
• 57:14
  Speaker 13: so that is his first pass at this. But the
• 57:17
  Speaker 13: only way that you get a spike at exports is
• 57:20
  Speaker 13: by you know, it puts upward pressure on prices. So yes,
• 57:23
  Speaker 13: it's going to help. Maybe it's going to help on
• 57:25
  Speaker 13: an offset on GDP for the shock. But the vast
• 57:28
  Speaker 13: majority of voters do not produce oil. They consume oil,
• 57:31
  Speaker 13: and again, very important to remember that this is an
• 57:33
  Speaker 13: election here.
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, great point.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're an oil executive, the landscape may look
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: pretty good if you're someone who's just trying to fill
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: up your tank at the pump or pay prices at
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: the grocery store. At the landscape is very very different.
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: Put C two up on the screen. What can we say,
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: Rory about the Iranian oil industry? Because the whole bet
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: here is that you know, very quickly Iran is going
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: to run out of storage, They're going to have to
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: shut down some of their oil production.
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: That is going to be damaging to those oil wells.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: That is the calculus that Trump is engaged in here
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: to think that they are going to this is going
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: to be devastating to them, that it's going to cause
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: them to capitulate, going to cause them to cave imminently
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: within weeks, is what you know. The White House has
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: been floating. What do we actually know here about the
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: realities for Iran?
• 58:19
  Speaker 13: Yeah, so I think it's important to kind of walk
• 58:20
  Speaker 13: through the causal chain here. So up until the blockade,
• 58:23
  Speaker 13: Iran was still basically exporting its at full tilt and
• 58:26
  Speaker 13: benefiting from the gangbuster kind of rise and oil prices,
• 58:29
  Speaker 13: so it was getting winfall profits. So that was obviously
• 58:33
  Speaker 13: not great from the perspective of trying to build pressure
• 58:35
  Speaker 13: on Iran. So the first step was to blockade their exports.
• 58:38
  Speaker 13: So now they're not going to be earning money on
• 58:39
  Speaker 13: those exports, but they're still able to produce crude into
• 58:43
  Speaker 13: inventory domestically, so they don't need to shut in the
• 58:45
  Speaker 13: wells yet.
• 58:46
  Speaker 9: The question is how long do they have?
• 58:48
  Speaker 13: How much inventory space do they have both between onshore
• 58:51
  Speaker 13: tanks and basically empty tankers floating around.
• 58:53
  Speaker 9: They can keep filling after.
• 58:55
  Speaker 13: That, and the timeline is kind of in the ballpark
• 58:58
  Speaker 13: of ten to twenty or thirty days on which sources
• 59:00
  Speaker 13: you're using, and that I think is a big source
• 59:02
  Speaker 13: of the debate right now in the policy sphere. But
• 59:05
  Speaker 13: after that then Auran has to shut in production. Now
• 59:08
  Speaker 13: that could be damaging to Iran's production long term production capacity.
• 59:12
  Speaker 13: Producers don't like to shut in production. I could damage
• 59:15
  Speaker 13: reservoir pressure and other things like that. But again important
• 59:18
  Speaker 13: in this context. This blockade only started on what week
• 59:21
  Speaker 13: six or seven of the of the war, after already
• 59:24
  Speaker 13: the rest of the golf had been forced to shut
• 59:26
  Speaker 13: in thirteen million barrels a day of production, more than
• 59:30
  Speaker 13: kind of six or sevenfold what Iran would need to
• 59:32
  Speaker 13: shut in and that's been shut in for at this
• 59:34
  Speaker 13: stage almost two months.
• 59:36
  Speaker 9: So there's a little bit of a timing mismatch here as.
• 59:38
  Speaker 13: Well, Like maybe this would have been more effective if
• 59:40
  Speaker 13: the Trump administration had stocked, had started the blockade immediately.
• 59:44
  Speaker 13: But at this stage, if we're thinking about, you know,
• 59:46
  Speaker 13: how much patience Iran could have with this kind of
• 59:49
  Speaker 13: economic harm, the rest of the golf has been dealing
• 59:51
  Speaker 13: with it much much longer. I think there's an important
• 59:54
  Speaker 13: issue here on scale as well. And again it's important
• 59:56
  Speaker 13: to remember that Iran has you know, the most sanctioned
• 59:59
  Speaker 13: kind tree in history for decades and decades now.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 9: They're used to economic pressure like this.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 13: In fact, the Iergy city often relishes in that kind
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 13: of like rally around the flag and kind of.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 9: Look at look at the great Satan, know what they're
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 9: doing to us.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 13: But the United States, the rest of the global economy
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 13: is not going to be as comfortable with kind of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 13: another two months of this, because if we get through
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 13: to you know, summer driving season, we get through to
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 13: June and hormones is still not open, we're gonna have
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 13: inventories at deeply precarious levels. And my fair value models
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 13: are showing that we could be upwards of one hundred
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 13: and eighty two hundred dollars a barrow by the end
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 13: of June if hormones remains closed and we don't get
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 13: additional policy actions like let's say yet more SPR releases
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 13: oral reseases, which I.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 9: Think would be my base case if this lasted that long.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: Right, that's a great point, all right?
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: CE five as well. This was Gallibaf of fee Iran.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: Seems to me he might be reading your own feet.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: He says, three days in no wells have exploded. We
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: could extend to thirty and live stream the well here.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: That was the kind of junk advice the US ADMIN
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: gets from people like best to push the blockade theory
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: and cranked oil up to one twenty next stop one
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: point forty. The issue isn't the theory, it's the mindset.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: So they seem very tapped in to this logic rory,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: and they are denying exactly what the US is claiming,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: and really I think showing some of the analysis that
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: you just laid out about their ability to survive this.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: So do you believe God, some of it's propaganda? How
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: much of this are we supposed to believe?
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 9: Yeah?
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 13: I mean, certainly in Galliboff's kind of comments here are
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 13: Bravado are kind of you know, extraordinarily online bravado, I.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 9: Should know, which is I think an ongoing meme of
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 9: this war.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 13: But I think he's there's there's a kernel of truth here. Again,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 13: I think that the Crump administration is over comfort on
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 13: this point. They basically got this idea in their head
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 13: that combined between the quote five hundred million dollars a
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 13: day that Ron's losing from the blockade, and now they're
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 13: gonna be for you know, all of their wells are
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 13: gonna explode if they if they can't get the oil out,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 13: Like this is all pretty junk science. And I think
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 13: that the longer this goes on, I think the more
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 13: that's going to be exposed. I think at this stage
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 13: it's very clear that the Trump administration has no good
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 13: options and as of yet, clearly Trump is just choosing
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 13: not to make a decision. This is just the status
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 13: quo extended out. At the same time, you're hearing reports
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 13: that Sendcom is preparing plans for another you know, sharp
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 13: short series of bombings and strikes and are on, Like
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 13: the signals are all over the place, and it's very
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 13: clear that the Trump administration doesn't really know what to
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 13: do here because again again there aren't any good choices
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 13: unless they're willing to concede on major things that Trump
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 13: in particular is not willing to concede on, like the
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 13: nuclear program.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: Well, your comments about the super online war so I'll
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: set us up for our next segment quite perfectly. So
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: thank you for that segue and for your analysis as always,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: very great to.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: See you appreciate it.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 6: Man.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 9: Thanks a lot of guys,