Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Monday Mourning | MLB | 8/31/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Monday Mourning | MLB | 8/31/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: hard But he don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Sports for Monday, August 31st. Trying to rest my voice
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: here a little bit, it's not in good shape man.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: We have just baseball today, but a decent amount of
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: baseball games, 12 games. I'm only going to have one
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: play today, though. I don't like the board. WNBA is
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: going into a break, which I believe WNBA, I believe
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: it's the Women's Basketball World Cup, I believe is what
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: is happening during the break.
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: Whatever.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: We had 2-2 on the show yesterday in Colorado. That
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: could have gotten there, man. If you actually went full
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: game with it and went plus one and a half,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: they actually covered that. They only lost by one, but
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Molly was good again. Adams was good on the other side, though,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: so that's what I was kind of... Maybe I should
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: have gone under, I guess, the first five or something,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: but I was expecting it to be close like that,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: and it was, but Colorado was down one run at
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: the end of the fifth.
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: I mean.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: so they did not hit the plus half. You needed
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: them to be tied at that point. We missed it
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: by one run. Minnesota, first five was a win. They
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: won the full game as well, so that went well.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh won as well. I believe they hung on and
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: won in the full game as well, but first five
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I think was definitely the right approach there because I
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: think the bullpen kind of started blowing it. I'm not
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: even actually positive they wound up winning.
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: I think they did.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like they did, but it got closer.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: I think it was a 4-2 game at the end
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: of five, and then They only won 5-4. And then
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: we did lose on the under. I guess let's not
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: play unders in Wrigley win games.
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: I mean, it was looking okay.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was a 2-0 game. I think it
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: was the fourth inning, I want to say. Maybe it
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: was the third. And, yeah, Imanaga, I think, was kind
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: of holding up his end there. And then I think
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: everything just kind of imploded at that point.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that was bad, the under and the under. Reds
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Cubs game I mean at night and you know of
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: course the Red Sox could not have gone worse but
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: dude that was a 0-0 game to the fifth inning
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: and then Suarez I mean I just think I don't
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: know there's something about a stamina where you just can't
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: hold up past five innings now which is not good
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: although the Red Sox bullpen which is normally good They
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: weren't good either yesterday, although it was worse than it
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: looked because the game was out of hand, so the
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Red Sox put Monasterio in as a pitcher late, so
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: they saved most of their bullpen. Whitlock came back, although
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: they did not use, I think they might have used
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: him in the game before that.
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: They did not use him.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Roman Anthony at least came back, and he actually had
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: a good game, but as a DH though, I think,
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: but whatever. It's not good. I mean, the Red Sox,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: they're Going to have to just wind up in the
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: second wild card spot.
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: That's going to be the best possibility for them at
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: this point.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Pretty bad.
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: Pretty fucking bad. Yeah, I mean, there were two games
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: behind the Yankees.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: They might as well be five now because I believe
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: they have now lost the season series to them as
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: well by one run. And yeah, but again, it was
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: not a 16 to one game like it really looked.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: Monasterio gave up five runs. I mean, it was like
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox just threw the game away at that point.
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: Like, whatever.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Whatever. save the bullpen. Although Moran was terrible in that
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: game as well, out of the bullpen. But the whole
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: thing started unraveling with that bad call with Raffaella making
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: a really good catch in the outfield. And that was
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: in a 0-0 game in the fifth inning.
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: And this is when it started unraveling. It was definitely
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: a catch, dude.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: And the fact that they ruled it not a catch
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: on the field, like when it happened, how could you
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: possibly do that? Like anybody that watches that replay knows
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: at normal speed, it absolutely looks like a catch. So
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: it's completely ridiculous that they ruled it not a catch
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: on the field. How do you see that? How could
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: you possibly see a trap in real time? I don't
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: even think it happened at all. I think it was
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: a catch. I don't think it was a trap at all.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, the replay, you can't quite tell, I guess,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: because of just the way he was holding his glove,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: but the ball was in the glove.
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: It's completely ridiculous, man.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: And then on replay, they did not overturn it, but
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: the ruling on the field was terrible. And then replay,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: it's like, oh, well, there's not enough evidence to overturn it.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: These refs should just, I mean, these umpires, I mean,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: should just be whatever. I don't want to go into it.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: That's all I got for that. It's such bullshit, dude.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: I'm so fucking pissed.
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: I hate it.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: I hate this fucking Red Sox team. You knew that
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: all that, the hot streaking that they were doing, you
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: knew it wasn't real.
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: It was not real. This team is not good. They're
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: definitely not good enough.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: All right. And now they're shutting down Sonny Gray, by
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the way, for a while. So the Red Sox are
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: just like, yeah, let's lose some more games this week.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: He'll pitch in the playoffs or whatever, but they're resting
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: him because he's old. All right. Today we have a
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: few games here. We have San Francisco and Atlanta as
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: the first game up. These are all evening games. San
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Francisco and Arizona, I don't really– I think it was
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: San Francisco and Arizona. They both didn't play yesterday.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: So they both are going to have a rest advantage today,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: which is weird. Usually every team plays on Sunday, so
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure why that happened. They played a
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: doubleheader two days ago, and then they didn't play yesterday.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: So that's how that series was set up, I guess.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: If somebody knows why, they can let me know, but
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I have no idea why that was the case. Anyway,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Atlanta staying at home, I believe. They beat us yesterday
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: with a win against Colorado. Barely got the win, though.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, we could have had that cover. It was close,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: but Atlanta's won seven in a row. They're still fighting
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: for playoff positioning. San Francisco's just playing out the stretch,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: but maybe San Francisco will come in motivated at least
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: because they're starting a road trip.
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: They get to play a good team here. They had
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: yesterday off.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: They won their last game against Arizona, so maybe San
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: Francisco does show up with some motivation here, but I
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: don't really like their pitching setup here at the very least.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's bullpen is rested, but they're not a good bullpen.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is definitely the better bullpen. They used four guys
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, though. So the rest edge does
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: kind of cut into that a little bit, although Atlanta
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: still has the better bullpen. They're ranked fourth here, which
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: I think is probably about accurate, as I keep saying.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, 24th. I think they're not quite as bad
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: as that makes them seem, but they're not great. Atlanta
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: is the better offense as well. They're number 11. San Francisco, 22nd,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: although I think San Francisco does do better on the road.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: But San Francisco looks like they're going with a bullpen
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: game here because they have so many pitching injuries. Anthony Molina,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: who is a relief pitcher, he's young, though, so they
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: might actually extend him in this game because he did
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: actually go four and a third innings last time. And
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: this gets more interesting because he's facing his former team,
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: the Atlanta Braves, here. So there's some weird things going
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: on in this game. I honestly don't know if he's
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: even going to start. So I think if you play
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: this game, I would still pick– Elder must start for
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: Atlanta because I'm assuming he is. He's listed as a starter,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: and he is one. I would not pick a starter
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: for San Francisco, though. I would just, you know, just
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: action on their side because you don't really know who's
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: actually going to start for them. But it looks like
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Molina will come into this game, and San Francisco used
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: him for four and a third innings last time.
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: And he's a young guy, and his numbers are.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: Pretty good this year, except it's a very small sample size,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: and he does not strike anybody out, so I don't
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: really love seeing that, so I have no idea how
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: good he even actually is.
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: Looks like he was on Colorado last year as well.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: You look at his numbers that he's posted in his career, though,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: mostly as a relief pitcher, these are bad numbers, so
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: I don't really think I want to trust him here, although...
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: He will be pumped probably to pitch for the team
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: that just let him go, Atlanta. And this will be
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: his first time facing them since that happened because it
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: happened earlier this year.
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: And I believe this.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: One, yeah, I was going to say this one prior
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: outing that he had was with the Giants, which I
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: think he came in in relief in that one.
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: So they might put an.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: Opener in front of him or whatever. The Braves are
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: 0 for 11 off him with four strikeouts and no walks.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: The Braves, most of their hitters have faced him and
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: nobody's reached pace off of him. but I don't think
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Molina is going to pitch very, very long here. I
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: would guess maybe three, four innings out of him. Uh,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: and he might not start the game. Bryce Elder is
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: pitching for Atlanta.
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: He's been decent.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Uh, 3.95 era 1.24 whip is not really that great
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: but it's not horrible He is better at home, 3.49
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: home ERA, with a much better opponent batting average at home.
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: He's been in pretty good form recently, though.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: He's given up three or fewer earned runs in every
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: start except one, which was actually at home somehow against
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: the Mets. Horrible start there, but other than that, he's
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: been pretty good since the beginning of July. Maybe a
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: couple of shaky-ish performances in there, but he is in
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: decent form right now. He's got a low hit rate,
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: low enough. His walk rate isn't too bad. but he
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: doesn't really strike anybody out, and that's kind of the
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: knock on him. So his strikeout walk ratio is not
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: really that good. Strikeout per nine, obviously, is not going
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: to be really that good. He's not a.
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: Strikeout pitcher, so I think he's really streaky, too.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: He's a guy that goes in and out of form
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: and has these good streaks and bad streaks. He's facing
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: a weak San Francisco offense here, but San Francisco actually
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: has done some damage against him.
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: In 18 at-bats, a. 333 average, 1178 OPS.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Not a huge sample, obviously only six of their hitters
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: have faced them four to two strikeout walk ratio. Devers
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: kills them. Devers is five for six with two home
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: runs off him in two walks. Uh, I mean, this
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: game's pretty hard to predict.
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: Really.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really want to play Atlanta on the side.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're ridiculously public. They're like minus one 80,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: even if they are the better team. I think that
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: the line move from minus one 40, whatever, because San
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Francisco probably changed their picture here. Uh, like San Francisco
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: probably had an actual starter listed and then decided to
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: go with some form of bullpen game here. 94% of
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: tickets and cash on Atlanta. I would not want to
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: deal with that. I don't even want to try to
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: figure out the side in this game. I think if
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: you're going to do anything in this game, I'd probably
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: just say over. I mean, I just, I don't know.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: The pitching looks like it's fairly questionable in this game.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: So Money looks like it kind of agrees with that.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: 59% of tickets on the under, 78% of the cash
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: on the over. The total's pretty high at nine, so
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: odds makers seem to think it's not going to be
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: a particularly low-scoring game. I'm going to tend to agree
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: with that, although San Francisco does have the rest edge,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: so if you want to just go with that and
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: be like, oh, well, San Francisco's rested. They're getting a
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: huge price on them here as an underdog. I don't
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: have anything on the side, so I'm not really going
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: to disagree with, uh, the San Francisco side there just
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: because that's really.
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: The only thing that would have me leaning one way
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: or the other. It'd be the rest edge.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: You could do it in the first five, maybe though,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: because Atlanta's bullpen is better, obviously, but San Francisco is
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: going to have their bullpen out there for basically the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: whole game. So yeah, it's ugly. It is definitely ugly. Garrett,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: what's up? You do some golf betting. Correct. Uh, Yeah, right.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not going to say– I don't think
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: the Braves are actually going to lose this game, but
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: it's kind of a questionable game. But, yeah, obviously they're
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: not going undefeated for the rest of the season. You're
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: going to jinx them.
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: I had nothing on the golf stuff. I have no idea.
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: I don't pay any attention to that, but good.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: All right, Mets and Tampa Bay here. Tampa Bay is
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: rolling right now. They've won a bunch of games in
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: a row. They've won four in a row and six
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: of their last seven. They just swept– San Diego, and
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: if you saw the way they won some of these games,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: it was crazy, dude. They overcame a 6-3 deficit in
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: like the seventh inning of the game two days ago.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: After that, I don't even know what happened there. Just Rodriguez, Bradley,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: however you pronounce his name, unraveled out of the bullpen.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Ranjifo twisted his knee and.
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: Had that error.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: It looks like he avoided a serious injury, though. They're
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: saying it's a sprain. So whatever.
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: And then yesterday, it came down to Tampa Bay's final out.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: They were down 3-1 in the ninth inning with two
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: outs and one guy on against Mason Miller, the best
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: closer in baseball. And Tampa Bay hit a home run
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: off him that actually was caught briefly by whoever was
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: in left field for San Diego actually caught it briefly
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: over the wall, but he couldn't hang on to it.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: So it went into his glove and then out of
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: his glove, basically, into the stands. So it was a
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: home run off. And then San Diego wound up winning in,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: I believe, 11 innings. I mean, excuse me, Tampa Bay
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: wound up winning in 11 innings. Really, really crazy game.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to play Tampa after a really,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: really dramatic finish like that. Or really two of.
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: Them in a row. And they might overlook the Mets,
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean?
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: And Tampa's feeling probably pretty good right now, although they don't...
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming they don't really love the result of the
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Yankees-Red Sox series. They would have rather had the Red
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: Sox win... at least one more game in that series
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: and knock the Yankees back. The Mets might show up here, though. Mets,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: you know, they're playing with some motivation here, although they've
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: lost four of their last five. But I think they're
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: still putting in effort here. So I think they are
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: a team that's backable in certain situations. Starting a road
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: trip could be a decent spot for them. However, Tampa
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Bay is very good at home, and this pitching matchup
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: absolutely favors Tampa Bay. Like, this is not a pitching
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: matchup where I would– I would not even want to
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: think about backing the Mets here, to be honest. Now
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: that I said that, they'll probably win. But I'm going
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: to have to be leaning Tampa Bay in this game.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I think it's a complete mismatch, to be honest. Even
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: though the situation doesn't look good, the price doesn't look good.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: But Tampa Bay used five relief pitchers yesterday. I think
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: the Mets do have a bullpen edge here. Mets used four.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: The Mets have the somewhat better bullpen in ERA. They're
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: number seven in WIP. Tampa's number three. but the Mets
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: ERA is better. I think the Mets are the slightly
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here. Tampa Bay is definitely the better offense.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: They're ranked sixth tie with Pittsburgh. Even, even if I
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: don't think they're quite that good, the Mets are 26th. Uh,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: and the Mets have Mr. Unsolved Mysteries on the mound.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Robert Stock, although he is anything but an unsolved mystery,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: he sucks. Uh, 7.4 ERA, 1.94 whip. This guy's awful.
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: His ERA on the road is 24. Is that good?
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: He's only thrown three innings on the road, but it's
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: been very bad. 529 opponent batting average. Obviously, you can't
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: sustain numbers that are that bad, but he's been pretty bad, dude.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: He just got destroyed by Milwaukee in his last start.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: He's not in very good form right now. His hit
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: rate's too high. His strikeout rate is actually good. He
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: does actually strike guys out, but his walk rate's enormous.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: None of these numbers are good. He walks so many
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: guys that his strikeout walk ratio's bad, even though his
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is actually good. His numbers against Tampa Bay,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: I think, are pretty limited, let me say. Yeah, they
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: only have two guys who have faced him, Diaz and Hicks.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: who they picked up as a trade deadline. Hicks has
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: the only hit. They're one for two off him with
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: a walk and no strikeouts. So not a lot there,
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: but I think stock is definitely fadable, I would say.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: Ian Seymour looks like he's getting the start for Tampa,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: although I will say a lot of times Tampa does
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: weird stuff, and they might put an opener in front
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: of him. So if you're going to play this game,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: I would probably pick stock must start. Don't pick a
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: starter for Tampa, or maybe just even play it action.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: But I think it's probably likely that both of these
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: guys will be the starters here, though. Seymour has actually
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: been fairly good for Tampa. 4.21 ERA isn't that great,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: but 1.15 whip is pretty good. So I think his
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: ERA is actually kind of misleadingly high. And he's been
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: good at home. 3.77 home ERA with a low 201.
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: Opponent batting average. Recent form... He's given up some runs recently.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: He's gotten less deep into a couple of his recent outings,
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: and Tampa's lost his last three starts, but they didn't
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: really hit that well in those games, and he has
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: a 38-4 strikeout walk ratio this month, so his command
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: has been on point here. Striking out a lot of
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: guys and hardly walking anybody, that's good, but somehow at
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: the same time, he's been too hittable, though, and the
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: home run ball has been a problem for him recently,
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: so it's not all good. for him and a lot
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: of his numbers this year were him coming out of
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: the bullpen earlier this year uh he does have a
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: low hit rate does have a pretty low walk rate
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: still strikeout rate is high though so his numbers look
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: pretty good across the board strikeout walk ratio is definitely
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: good at four strikeout per nine is close to 11
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: his numbers against i always forget when we get to
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: the second pitcher i never remember who the fuck the
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: opponent is i don't know why my mind works this
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: way or does not work this way anymore mats i
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: know it's the mats all right um Yeah, the Mets
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: are 0-2 off. Morel and Robert Jr., those are the
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: only two guys that have faced him. They're 0-2 off him,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: no strikeouts, no walks. Again, based on the matchup, though,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: I think I'd only be able to lean towards Tampa
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Bay here. I think it's just pretty clear they have
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: the way better pitcher here. The situation doesn't look great.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: The price doesn't look great. Money might be kind of
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: agreeing with them, even though they are public. 90% of
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: the tickets, 93% of the cash. minus 170, though. You'd
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: have to knock that price down. You'd have to lay
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: like a minus one run line or something with Tampa Bay.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: The other option would be to just take Tampa Bay
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: over their team total, although then you're erasing Seymour, who
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: is a decent part of this equation, but the money
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: is coming in on the over eight in the game,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: so I mean, I guess you could maybe lean into
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: that a little bit and go with Tampa to score
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: where they do do well at home, and they're going
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: up against some pretty bad pitching, it looks like, so
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: I could see that being the case as well. The
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: next game is my only play of the day, and
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: if you know how I do this, you're probably going
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: to know what it is. It's a little bit juicy here,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: but we're going to take San Diego minus 140 here,
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: and I know they used their better relievers in the
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: last two games, so I know their bullpen isn't in
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: great shape here, but they're also going up against a.
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: Really bad bullpen.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: If you want to take the bullpens out, you can
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: actually get a cheaper price on this Full game. So
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: the odds makers think San Diego's bullpen is still good
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: to go against Cincinnati. But there's a lot going into
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: this handicap where it's a situational play. And I think
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: we're getting the better pitcher. And we're getting the motivation.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: Although I know the fact that San Diego needs to
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: win to remain in the wild card race and whatever. Yeah,
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: you're going to have to pay a little bit of
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: a price for it. But I think they're going to
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: win this game. I think everything kind of lines up
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: for them in this game. Except The matchup numbers are
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: actually good on both sides for the pitchers, but other
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: than that, I do like this one.
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati, they're in a bad spot, dude. They're coming home from.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: A three-series road trip. They were out in Arizona, then
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: on the West Coast in San Francisco, then they were
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: in Chicago, and they had a huge series against the Cubs.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Where they won the series against the Cubs, that's big, dude.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, Cincinnati's not going anywhere this year, and they
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: beat one of their NL Central rivals who is going
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs most likely. Huge, huge series for Cincinnati,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: and they won yesterday in a pretty intense, high-scoring 7-5
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: win in Wrigley in the night game. And you know
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: I talk about this, the Sunday night teams, you want
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: to look to fade them on Monday because they have
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: less rest. They're coming off that late game, and a
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: lot of them have to travel, and in this case, Yeah,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati does have to travel, even though the last leg
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: of this journey is pretty quick, from Chicago to Cincinnati.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: But they could be in a letdown spot here, man,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: even if San Diego, Cincinnati does have a chance to
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: play spoiler against them. But I think Cincinnati cared more
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: about that Cubs series, man. That's their divisional rival. And
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: San Diego's going to come into this, I think, with
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: some intensity, even though I know they're not a very
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: good road team. But Cincinnati's not a very good home
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: team either. San Diego just got swept by Tampa. Like
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: I said, San Diego could have won each of the
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: last two games. They had a lead late in both
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: of them. They probably should have won both.
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: Of those games.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Crazy to see San Diego's bullpen implode like that, but
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: I think it might be good for San Diego to
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: just get out of where they were, Tampa Bay, go
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: to the Reds, reset, play a better game. I think
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: that's what we're going to get out of San Diego here.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: San Diego did use five relief pitchers yesterday, though, including
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: this awful Bradgley guy again.
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: And they did use a bunch of their better relievers, though.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: They used Morihon, however you pronounce his name, Matsui, and
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Mason Miller, of course, all pitched yesterday. Miller might be
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: available again, though, because he hadn't pitched in days. We'll see.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: But I'm still going to roll with this bullpen over Cincinnati's.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati did use three guys themselves yesterday. They're just not
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen. San Diego's number nine in bullpen, and
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: I think they're a top five bullpen, really, despite what
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: they did the last couple days. Cincinnati's 25th. Their bullpen's bad, dude.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: They have a bottom five bullpen ERA.
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: Really, really not good. San Diego, I think, has the
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: edge offensively here, too.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Even though they're 24th right now and Cincinnati's 23rd, San
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Diego's still been the better offensive team since the All-Star break,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: so I think they have the edge there, too. And
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: just on the surface, San Diego's got the better pitcher
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: here with Michael King, even though the advanced analytics guys
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: don't really love this guy, but he's pitched consistently as
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: well as his numbers look here for quite a while. So,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, the regression hasn't really happened for him. He
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: doesn't put that many guys on base. He just doesn't
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: strike out a lot of guys. 3.23 ERA, 1.17 whip here.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: He is slightly worse on the road, 3.56 road ERA,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: which is still not bad. He looks like he's in
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: pretty good form right now. The walk number may be
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an issue this month, but the
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: rest of his numbers look really good. He's allowed three
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in every start. All but one
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: start really going all the way back through the beginning
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: of July, if you want to go back that far.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Hasn't allowed more than three in any start this month.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: And he's coming off a seven inning shutout against the Pirates.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: That's a good sign that he's in pretty good form
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: right now. That was against a good offense. It was
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: in San Diego though. Pitcher friendly park. But he got
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: no run support in that one. So they wound up
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: losing somehow. But he's been pretty hard to hit. His
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: hit rate's low. His walk rate isn't great. I mean
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: mediocre walk rate. His strikeout rate is I would say
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: just mediocre. So that does mean his strikeout walk ratio
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: is not that good. So the advanced analytics guys will
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: come in and poke at that, and I don't love
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: it either, really, but I think he's a fine pitcher, though,
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: and usually he does strike out more than this. I
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: don't know why his strikeout rate has fallen as much
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: as it has this season, but throughout his career, he's
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: been a bit better than that, but.
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: I think he is pretty capable.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: In a start like this against an offense that's not
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: that good, and King has been good against them in
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: the past. against Cincinnati, 47 at-bats, 11 strikeouts, 3 walks,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: 191 average, 580 OPS allowed. So I will back King
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: in this one, and I will fade Singer in this one.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Brady Singer pitching for the Reds. He's definitely the lesser
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. 4.72 ERA, 1.42 whip is really bad.
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: He is good at home, though.
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: I will admit that, even though it's a hitter-friendly park. 3.82
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: home ERA, so he's been better at home. I'll also
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: admit he's pitching better recently, though, although better is kind
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: of relative. He's been a little bit shaky recently, and
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's lost his last four starts, so they're not playing
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: well when he's on the mound. It's not like he's
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: been acing everybody. He's been mediocre, really, in some of
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: these starts here. It's been against some kind of weak offenses, too.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: San Francisco and St. Louis are his last two opponents.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: Those are not good offenses. San Diego, in their current form,
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: you've got to think they're the better offense than those two.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Singer has a really high hit rate. He allows too
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: many home runs. His walk rate is His strikeout rate's
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: not very good. So you want to talk about guys
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: that don't strike guys out. Singer falls into that category.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio's not really that good either. At
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: two and a half, and just like King, his strikeout
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: per nine has gone way down too. Although his is,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: King's has fallen further, I will admit. Like King has
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: the better strikeout potential, though, looking at his past career numbers.
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: Singer, not really.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, Singer's never been a huge strikeout guy, but
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: his number is still a little bit worse this year.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: I did say his numbers are good against San Diego though.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: So that's the one thing, you know, his numbers are
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: good here and 42 at bats, nine strikeouts, no walks,
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: two 38 average allowed five 48 OPS. So he does
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: do well against San Diego, but I still think this
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: is the right way to go. It's a spot play. Uh,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: the clincher for me was that it's, it's Cincinnati coming
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: off the night game, coming off the night game. Plus
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: returning home from a long road trip.
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: It's a negative dude.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: The, The road trip return, like I always say, usually
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: comes with distractions. You got to get back to home life, whatever.
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree with me on this play.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: 73% of tickets, 92% of the cash on San Diego.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: The money's also coming in on the over nine here,
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: but I actually kind of like the first five under.
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: On the total here.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: I think both pitchers might actually pitch well enough to
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: get that thing under early, but I would not trust
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: really either bullpen as far as keeping the total under.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: But I am still going to trust whatever San Diego
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: is going to do with their better bullpen here against
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's bullpen and extend it full game. But like I said,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: you can actually get a better price on this if
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: you want to go first five, and I would not
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: disagree with that. I consider that you can find like
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: minus 130-something on San Diego in the first five. which,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: you know, if Cincinnati's going to be in a distraction spot,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: it might hit earlier in the game as well, and
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: their hitting might be slow to start and.
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: Whatever, so that might happen.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm not going to disagree with that either,
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: but I will extend it full game here for this one.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I cannot talk.
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: Oh my God. My voice is so bad right now, dude.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: I don't even know why. I mean, I was hanging
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: out with Clint, but it's not like I was we
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: weren't doing anything crazy. Uh, Clint does a lot of, uh, sleeping.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: He's always cozy. Uh, I wasn't doing a whole lot
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: of talking or whatever. I don't know what to tell you. Uh,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Miami and Washington, this is a wraparound series. So this
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: series is actually finishing today and Washington won the first
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: two games of the series after they lost the first
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: six against Miami this season. And Miami got them back
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: yesterday after, uh, Alvarez had a really good start in
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: that game yesterday, and then the Washington bullpen did what
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: they do, and they blew the game.
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, what else is new?
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: I think Miami scored all six runs in the ninth inning, too. Oh,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: my God, this Washington bullpen, they are so bad. They're
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: so bad, dude. I think it might have been a
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: 2-1 game.
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know, whatever it was.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Horrible bullpen.
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: So, yeah, I don't want anything to do with Washington's bullpen.
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, what else is new?
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: And the other day I wound up being able to
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: find a four to cut them out and get a
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: push on that under two. Washington used three relief pitchers.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Miami is the better bullpen. Miami used four yesterday, but
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Miami's going to have the edge there. They're number six,
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: even though I don't think they're actually the sixth best bullpen,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: but they're definitely way better than Washington, who's 26 and
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: has almost a five ERA out of the bullpen.
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: Washington's the better offensive team. They're number three.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Miami is number 12, tied with Minnesota. Ryan Gusto is
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: getting the start from Miami.
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: He's been a little bit better recently.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.98 ERA now, 1.33 whip. I mean,
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: he's not great or anything, but he's pitching a little
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: bit better recently. He is not good on the road, though. 4.82
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: road ERA. Last time out, we got a win back
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: in Miami here on the show against the Red Sox.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: It was somewhat of a matchup play, somewhat of a
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: spot play. And Gusto was still, he had some walk
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: issues in that start, man. I think he got kind
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: of lucky that he didn't allow any runs in that one.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: He shut out the Red Sox for five and two-thirds,
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: but he did put a bunch of guys on base.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: Hasn't allowed a run in his last two outings. I
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: think Gusto is going to start, but what I will
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: say here is that Washington.
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: Looks like they're going with a bullpen game here.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: Miami, whenever Gusto's on the mound, it's almost like a
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: sort of a bullpen game. I would say if you're
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: going to play this game, I would just not even
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: specify starters. I would just play it action because Gusto
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: will– pitch a decent amount in this game, whether he
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: starts or not. And Washington, who knows what the hell
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: they're doing. They're going with some sort of bullpen game here. Gusto, though,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's as good as his numbers look recently,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: although he's in command recently for the most part. Although
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: maybe it's... Maybe his command is being lost again because
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: he had three walks in that last start, but he
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: has only five in the month of August.
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's too high in the season. His walk
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: rate's fine.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is okay, too, so his command numbers
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: have been all right here as I click on Miami's
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: link or something.
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: I don't know what the hell that was.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Augusto, yeah, his strikeout walk ratio is actually almost three,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: so that's not too bad. His strikeout per nine isn't
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: very good. Seven and a half. Numbers against Washington are
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: A little bit all over the place. They have 29
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him. They've hit him well for contact, 310 average,
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: but they have no extra base hits against him. So
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: they only have a 665 OPS against him, 5-2 strikeout
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Gusto, he's kind of mediocre against Washington. I
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: don't really trust him, though. This game is on Fox
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: Sports 1, by the way. So yesterday I think it
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: was on MLB Network or something. Today it's on Fox
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: Sports 1. so you can actually watch this series on TV.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Will Dion is listed as a starter for Washington for now.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: He's got good numbers on the season, but he's a
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: relief pitcher. He was not good last time out against Colorado,
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: and I guess he spent a lot of the year
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: with Cleveland, so he must have been part of that
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: Foster Griffin trade, I assume.
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know, man.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: He's pitched for Washington a decent amount now since then.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: He's been mostly good, but his last outing was really
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: bad against Colorado, and it was not in Coors Field.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: He's got pretty good numbers against Miami, but I just
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's worth going into it that much
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: because he's not going to be in the game that much.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: He's going to either be an opener or he might
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: just pitch in the game at some point. Last time
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: Washington did this, they used Matt Waldron as um as
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: the first guy out so they might do that again
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: like i said i'm i'm not convinced deon is actually
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: going to start this game so it could be waldron
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: the knuckleballer because he hasn't pitched since that game i
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: don't believe yeah so um right uh correct so that
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: was five games ago it was five days ago but
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: yeah waldron i'm expecting that he's going to be involved
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: in this game as well and he has not pitched
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: well So, I mean, overall, this just kind of looks
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: like a bad pitching game to me, so I think
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: I would just take the game over if I was
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: going to play this. It's 8.5 is the total. The
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: money seems to strongly agree with the over here. 53%
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 93% of the cash on the over. I mean,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: the only good pitching in this game really is, I mean,
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: I guess you could argue Gusto's okay, but I don't
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: like a Washington bullpen game, although... You know I've had
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: issues trying to fade Washington bullpen games when it's Brad Lord.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Miami's bullpen is basically the only good pitching
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: we're going to see here for the most part. Washington's
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: bullpen could lose a total on their own pretty much.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: The money's also coming in on Washington. I don't have
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: a great feel for that. They're actually an underdog in
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: this game. 51% of tickets, 67% of the cash on Washington.
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: I mean, Miami does have the better record.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: But Gusto, I mean, I guess he's more trustworthy than
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: a Washington bullpen game. So I guess if you wanted
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: to look at it that way, Miami's about a pick-em price.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: I guess you could lean towards Miami here. I don't
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: have a great feel for that, but Miami has kind
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: of dominated the.
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: Season series, though.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: And maybe they'll be slightly more motivated because I think
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: they still might have a real outside chance of making
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. And they're going to try to even up
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: the series because they're down 1-2 in the series. So
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: maybe Miami makes sense. It would be a full game
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: play because their bullpen is obviously the better one. plus
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: Washington's bullpen is going to be out there all game,
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: so whatever.
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: I think those are the ways to look.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: I prefer the over in that game, though. Seattle at
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. The Red Sox are returning home from
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: a road trip, so that is not good. Red Sox
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: just went to Miami, and then the Yankees, obviously, they
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: did not have a great road trip, although I think they.
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: Only won one game below. 500 on that road trip.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: But, you know, you're coming off a four-game series against
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, coming back home. The only saving grace here
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: is that the Red Sox looked worse than they actually
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: were in the last two games because those games just
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: unraveled late with horrible fielding in the ninth inning in
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: one game. And then the Red Sox had a position
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: player pitching by the end of the game yesterday. And
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Monasterio allowed like five more runs to come home.
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: So whatever.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: I think that's the only good thing for the Red
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Sox here is that those losses were somewhat misleading yesterday.
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: So now they're back home. Red Sox are not a
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: good home.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Team, though, so that's kind of a problem, although Seattle's
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: a very bad road team. Seattle, really, really bad road record.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are actually above. 500 at home now,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: so the Red Sox have been better at home recently. But,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't like teams in return home spots.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: I think it could be a distraction, and Seattle's going
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: to be the more motivated team here because Seattle... They
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: got to do something, man. I mean, their season's fading away.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: They're still not out of it. They're still in the
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: wildcard race, and they still could win the AL West.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: They just got swept by the Blue Jays, which is disgusting.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, they got shut out by Max Scherzer yesterday. Whatever.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: But I think it's going to suit them to just
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: leave Toronto and go to Boston here. Situation definitely favors
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Seattle in this one, which, yeah, I mean, I'm pissed
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: about it. I do not like this setup for the
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, even if it maybe is a bounce-back spot.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Seattle used three relief pitchers yesterday. Red Sox only used two,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: I think. Yeah, because they saved the rest of their
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: bullpen there. Red Sox bullpen ERA skyrocketed. So they're still
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: the number one bullpen in WIP, but number two in
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: ERA behind the Yankees. But the Red Sox bullpen ERA
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: did shoot up because of the position player throwing the
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: game basically yesterday, so I think that's a little bit misleading,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: but they're still a really good bullpen, and they have
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: a lot of their better arms available here, and Whitlock
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: is back, so there is that. Seattle, their bullpen struggled, man.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Their 21st, their bullpen ERA is actually kind of bad
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: in the mid-4, so I think the Red Sox do
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: have the bullpen edge here.
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: As they do against pretty much everybody.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are number nine offensively, tied with Houston,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: so they're way better in that department, too. Seattle's dead last, 30th.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: This has not been a good offensive season for Seattle,
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: although you'd think they would hit better on the road
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: outside of Seattle's pitcher-friendly park, but they've been a bad
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: road team, too, except George Kirby is pitching for Seattle.
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: Actually, no, not except. George Kirby, I think he's not
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: good on the road. I'll go into it in.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: A second, but yeah, George Kirby's pitching for Seattle. He
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: actually has not been great. 4.02 ERA, 1.33 whip is
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: really not very good. Kirby is definitely worse on the road,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: which does make sense because Seattle's ballpark is pitcher-friendly. 5.19
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: road ERA, so Kirby's definitely struggling on the road. Way
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: higher opponent batting average, too. 3.31 on the road.
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: That's awful.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: He's coming off a really good home start against Philly,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: but had two really bad starts prior to that.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: They were both on the road.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: Over the last month or so, Every one of his
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: road starts has been horrible, and his home starts have
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: all been good. So he's definitely got some extreme home
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: road splits, especially right now. His hit rate is way
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: too high, too. He's way too hittable. Even though he
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk many guys, his strikeout rate's not really
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: that good. So there are some concerns with Kirby here.
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: Even though his strikeout walk ratio is not too bad,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: it was way better a couple years ago, though. I
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: don't know what happened. If he got injured or something,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: he used to be a good strikeout pitcher. He's kind
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: of fallen off the last couple of years, man. I
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: don't know, especially this year. I don't know what's going
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: on with them, but his strikeout walk ratio, which is 3.7,
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: which is not horrible, is way lower than what he
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: used to post.
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, he went an entire season posting one that
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: was almost eight before, which is almost unheard of. Like
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: that's totally elite. And this year his strikeout per nine
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: is way down too. It's below eight this year. So
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: he's had a drop off this year, but he's good
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: against the Red Sox. 56 at bats, 214 average allowed,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: 634 OPS, 14 to two strikeout walk ratio. So Kirby
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: at least has a good matchup here. Seattle has the,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: has the motivational edge and the situational edge here. I
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: don't think I could do it though. I mean, I'd
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: lean Seattle in this game, especially given what the price is.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: I don't think I could do it. Um, given that
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: Tully is pitching for the Red Sox, and he is
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: the better of the two pitchers here. He's got a 3.09.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: ERA, 1.09 whip.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse at home, 3.64 home ERA,
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: but he's been pretty good. Was not quite as good
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: in his last two starts, but he's still striking out
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys. He's got a really good strikeout
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: walk ratio this month. He's striking out guys at a
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: high rate. He's got a low hit rate. on the season.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is fine. His strikeout rate is quite high.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: So that's all good. Pretty good strikeout walk ratio. Good
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. And Seattle, I believe, has never faced
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: him before.
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: Oh, no, they have.
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: My mistake.
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: Oh, wait.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: Actually, Seattle... 25 at bats for Seattle against totally.
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: They have a two, eight.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: I did see this earlier. I'm pretty sure they have
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: a two 80 average against them. Seven 57 OPS, two strikeouts,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: three walks.
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Totally pitched in Seattle earlier this year, although he wasn't
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: really that bad in that start. He didn't have that
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: many strikeouts in it, but he went six innings allowed
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: three runs. It wasn't exactly, that was a quality start.
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: It wasn't exactly bad, but his numbers don't look that great.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: Everything kind of lines up here for a plan Seattle, except, um,
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: That the Red Sox, I think, look worse than they
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: actually are with those last two results. And Kirby has
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: been unbackable on the road recently. So those are my
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: concerns with it. I think I'm going to lead Seattle, though,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: in this game, obviously. This one almost makes the cut
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: for me. 93% of the tickets, 87% of the cash
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: on the Red Sox. They're about minus 160.
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: I would only take.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: Seattle first five, though, because the Red Sox should have
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge here. So Seattle.
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: probably on the run line.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: Plus the half run in the first five, although I
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: don't know what the price is going to look like.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe it would be a money line play. If you
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: play the run line, I do recommend putting at least
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit on the money line anyway. But yeah,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle first five is probably the right way
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: to look here. Money's also coming in on the over eight.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure about that. I kind of lean
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: under in this game. I mean, I think Seattle's bullpen
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit underrated right now, although I
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: know their numbers don't look good, but they do still
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: have talented relief pitchers. Red Sox bullpen has been good
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: for the most part. Both pitchers are capable of pitching
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: well here. And I think Kirby's numbers are more to
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: lean on because it's a bigger sample size.
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: I think under is the right way to look at
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: the total there.
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: It's a low total.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's 7.5 or 8. So the oddsmakers seem
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: to think it'll be low scoring. And Seattle's offense has
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: been bad. There's no doubt about that. And the Red
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Sox offense has been bad. recently and generally not very
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: good at home so I think there are more things
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: that line up towards an under there but correlated I
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: think Seattle is is the better way to play that
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: Seattle in the first five and playing a big underdog
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: like that when you think it's going to be low
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: scoring there's usually value in doing that as I always
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: say because low low scoring means the underdog has a
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: better chance to hang around all right Detroit at Minnesota
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: we got the win with Minnesota yesterday first five and
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: full game they won both of those I think they
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: were winning 3-1 or 4-1 at the end of 5.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: They wound up winning 5-1. Minnesota's bullpen held up yesterday.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Now they ended a losing streak, so that's good. I
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: think when you end a losing streak, it gives you
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: new positive momentum. Minnesota and Detroit here, they're both like,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: they're not going to make the playoffs, dude. They're both
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: kind of fucked at this point. But they might both
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: show up for a series like this, right? Because they're
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: still kind of battling. They might still think they're not
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: dead yet. It's a divisional series, so I don't think
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: either team's going to Just overlook the series or anything
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: like that Detroit's coming off of playing the Dodgers which
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: is difficult they had a couple of close games and
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: they lost more decisively yesterday but now they're starting a
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: road trip so starting a road trip usually is a
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: positive spot Detroit has the better bullpen here They used
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: four guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but I don't
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: trust Minnesota's bullpen, even though they only used one guy,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: which I think Hoffman, I believe he's their closer.
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: I'm not entirely sure of that.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: But Minnesota's bullpen is still bad, even if they performed
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: well yesterday. It looks like Zebby got them through most
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: of that game yesterday, it looks like.
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: So he did well for us yesterday. Zebby might be good, man.
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: I'm looking at hitting. Whoops.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's bullpen, they're ranked 29th. They're really bad, although... The
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: ranked worse than the A's. The A's are still the
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: worst bullpen, man. I mean, A's, Minnesota, and Kansas City
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: are all tied and whipped. So yeah, Minnesota's at least
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: better than the A's, but they're still terrible. Detroit's bullpen's
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: number 14. They're a decent bullpen.
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: Minnesota, 12th offensively. Detroit, 20th. Minnesota's tied with Miami.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Detroit's tied with Texas, which is pretty ugly. So Detroit's
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: offense has definitely been struggling recently. And on the surface,
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: I think Minnesota does have the better pitcher in this matchup.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: Jackson Jobe is pitching for Detroit. He's got a 3.93 ERA,
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: but his 1.42 whip indicates that there is something wrong here. However,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: he's been basically untouchable on the road, a. 87 road ERA,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: but it's a really small sample size. He's only made
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: four starts this year. And you look.
• 44:12
  Speaker 5: At what he's done in the past, it's not very impressive, man.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Like, he just... His walk number has been a problem
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: throughout his career so far. He's got to fix that.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: It's a problem still this year. He's got a 15-8
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio this year in 18-3 innings with 18
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: hits allowed.
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: That's not good.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: Not good enough. His numbers against Minnesota, I'm assuming there
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: are some here, but again, I always look at this,
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: but I forget. Minnesota, only two hitters have seen him,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Caratini and Larnock. or 0 for 3 often with a
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: walk and a strikeout, but I don't trust Joe, man.
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: I just don't.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: He's too walk-heavy.
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: He doesn't look very good to me right now.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio below 2 is pretty unacceptable, and strikeout
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: per 9 in the 7s, yeah, he's not a great pitcher.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: So I don't love him here. Taj Bradley on the
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: other side is the more established pitcher. He's had a
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: pretty good season for Minnesota. And he's got a bigger
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: sample size that we can look at here. 3.97 ERA, 1.28 whip.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: His whip is still too high. He walks too many guys, dude.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: He strikes out a lot of guys, but he walks
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys.
• 45:17
  Speaker 5: He's good at home.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: 3.51 home ERA. Had 11 strikeouts last time out in
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: the A's stadium, even though he did give up four
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: runs and they lost the game, but he got no
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: run support and 11 strikeouts, one walk in that game,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: and he went pretty deep into it. That tells you
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: he wasn't pitching that badly. He was pretty on point there.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: His walk number is still a problem, though, and so
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: is his hit rate, actually, recently. But on the course
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: of the season, his hit rate's been low. He still
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: has allowed too many home runs, though, and his walk
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: rate is definitely way too high. But his strikeout rate
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: is also really high. So that's pretty much what you
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: get out of him. He's a guy with good strikeout stuff,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: but he's way too wild. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: below 3. A guy with his strikeout capability should.
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: Be better than that. He's got to get the control fixed, man.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: He's got a really nice strikeout per 9, though, that's
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: above 10.
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: Bradley against Detroit has not been great.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: 37 at-bats, 270 average, 763 OPS, 10-4 strikeout walk ratio.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: This game's hard to figure out for me. The money
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: looks like it's all coming in on Detroit. I don't
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: really love it. 52% of tickets on Minnesota, 70% of
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: the cash on Detroit.
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: They're an underdog.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, Minnesota's minus 130 basically for the full game.
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're going to play Detroit, you should
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: do a full game and take advantage of the bullpen
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: edge they have here, but I don't really see it.
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, I.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Kind of like the over in this game, but the
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: money doesn't agree with that. The total's eight and a half.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: 55% of the tickets are on the over, 65% of
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. But Bradley doesn't have great
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: numbers against Detroit. I don't trust Jobe. One of the
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: two bullpens is bad, Minnesota. So I think there's more
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: bad pitching than good in this game. But it's hard
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: to predict, man.
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: It really is. So that's what I think about that game.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: I do not think Milwaukee and the Chicago Cubs, I
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: do not think an over is the preferable way to
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: play this one. Now the Cubs are in a kind
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: of a bad spot because they did just play the
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: night game, but they're staying at home at least. But
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: I like to fade teams coming up that night game.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: Although the Cubs might be in more of a bounce
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: back spot really, because I told you yesterday, it wasn't
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: the greatest spot for the Cubs because they could be
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: looking ahead maybe to playing Milwaukee here.
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: Although I think I said Milwaukee could be.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: In a look ahead as well. Um, Actually, I think
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: that is really what I said. But yeah, the Cubs,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, losing to the Reds is kind of unacceptable.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: So the Cubs might have been looking ahead. They might
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: bounce back here.
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're not going to.
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: Overlook Milwaukee, the team that's leading their division. So I
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: don't think the Cubs are in that bad of a
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: spot here. Milwaukee is traveling in from home. And they
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: did lose yesterday, actually. So I was correct with that
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: Ranger lean yesterday. Although I think I said first five.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they got it done in the
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: first five or not. Yes, it looks like they did. So, yes,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: I was correct with Texas yesterday. Now, Milwaukee, I think
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: they just got caught looking ahead to the Cubs. I
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: think this is a big series for them, too. And
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: they'd already won the series against the Rangers. The Rangers
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: are in desperation mode, so I think that's what happened there.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: And Milwaukee didn't have one of their better pitchers on
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: the mound yesterday either. They do in this game, though. Now,
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee traveling out here to face the Cubs here. Both
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: bullpens are fine. I mean, Milwaukee's is good. Cubs are decent.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: Cubs used four elite pitchers yesterday. Milwaukee only used two
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: and not really any of their better relievers at all.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: No offense to these other guys. Milwaukee's number five in bullpen.
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: I think they're the third best bullpen at this point.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: They're quite good. And then the Cubs are 12th.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: They're decent. Cubs are number one offensively. They've been really
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: good offensively recently. And the Dodgers have taken a little
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: bit of a step back here. Brewers have been good
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: on offense as well.
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: They're number five. So we do have two good offenses here. However,
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: I like the under in this game.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: Problem is, it looks like it's another Wrigley win game,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: and I shouldn't have played that one yesterday, I guess.
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: I thought the pitching would overcome it, and it might here, too.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: I still like the under in this game, too, but
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to put it on my card this time.
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: We do have kind of a high total.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: In this one, 9.5, and given what this pitching matchup is,
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: you know that means the oddsmakers are telling you the
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: wind is blowing out again in Wrigley because there's no
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: way you can see a 9.5 in a game with
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: these two pitchers on the mound otherwise. Kyle Harrison is
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: pitching for Milwaukee. He's had a really good season, 2.79 ERA. 1.12 whip. However,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: he is beatable on the road. He has a 4.66
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: road ERA, so I don't really know if I necessarily
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: want to back him, like, back the under. I'd probably
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: still do it, though, if this was in a different
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: stadium other than Wrigley, or if the wind wasn't doing
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: its thing here.
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: I'd probably still go with the.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: I might add the under to my card here, but
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: Harrison's road numbers are a bit of a concern, although
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: his last road start was good against the Mets, so
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: he seems to be kind of coming back.
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: Into form here. He's been really.
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good all season, man. The road numbers
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: have only started to slip recently. Like he had three
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: bad road starts in a row before that last one.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: And I know it was only against the Mets, but
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: it was good to see him pitch well on the
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: road again. Maybe not good for me as a Red
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: Sox fan because they traded Harrison away after they got
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: him in the Devers train. And I thought Harrison would
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: be good because I've watched what he's done for a
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: while now. And it looks like I'm being proven correct.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, he's got a low
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: walk rate this year, high strikeout rate. His numbers are
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: really good across the board here. I guess there is
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: a concern maybe with the innings pitch count, but he's
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: not thrown that many this year yet, and he threw
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: more than that in 2024, so he's not really at
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: that point yet. He's got a really nice strikeout walk
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: ratio that's near 5, which is the best of his career,
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout per 9 is also the best of
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: his career, over 11.
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: That is all good. And his numbers against the Chicago
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: Cubs are also good, believe it or not.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: And 43 at-bats, 140 average, 434 OPS, 19-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: So he actually kind of dominates the Cubs. So I
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: do think Harrison will pitch well here. And Clay Holmes
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Cubs. He's a different style of pitcher, man.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's older and is mostly kind of a
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: ground ball pitcher and soft contact pitcher. So advanced analytics
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: guys don't like him, but he.
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: Does have good numbers here.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: 2.26 ERA, 1.06 whip. He did miss a chunk of
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: time because he had a broken leg, and then the
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Mets wound up trading him, but good season overall for him.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: He's coming off a seven-inning shutout of Arizona, so that
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: was a nice start from him. He's had three good
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: starts in a row, so three of his four starts
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs have been good, but the Cubs lost
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: two of those, and they lost his bad start, too.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: They're not really backing him with run support here. He
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: does have a low hit rate on the season. He
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk anybody either, but he also doesn't strike
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: anybody out. So that's the knock on him. His strikeout
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: number's low, so his strikeout walk ratio's not very good.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: In the twos, his strikeout per nine is low. I
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: think the seasons where it was higher, I think he
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: was more of a relief pitcher. He's not really a
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: huge strikeout pitcher, but he's been effective nonetheless. His whip
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: is quite good, so he does not put a lot
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: of guys on base. And his numbers against Milwaukee are
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: also good. In 36 at-bats, 167 average, 574 OPS allowed.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Outside of Jelic, nobody in this lineup hits him well.
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: Jelic is 3 for 7. That's half of the hits
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: they have against him, and all of the extra base
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: hits they have against him are the two doubles from Jelic.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: He also has three of the five walks. It's a
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: 7 to 5 strikeout walk ratio, so as long as
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: Holmes can deal with Jelic, the rest of this lineup
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: I don't see doing a whole lot here, actually, so
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: I think I do like the under in this one.
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: The problem is, again, the oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: you this is going to be a wind game, which
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: is why the total is really high at 9.5. That's way, way,
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: way high for this type of pitching matchup. Wind's got
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: to be blowing out, man, and the money is coming
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: into the over, so it looks kind of like that
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: read last night. But, dude, I mean, I thought yesterday
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: was like it was an elite pitching matchup pretty much
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: between Burns and Imanaga.
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: This is not quite that.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Holmes is definitely not elite, although maybe this one does
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: go under because these pitchers are a little bit more
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: under the radar. 72% of tickets are on the under,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: 85% of the cash on the over. Money is playing
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: the over here, but I would play the under if
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: I was going to play this game. And you get
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: that key number of 9.5 at least. Usually I like
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: to play over the high totals, though, as you know,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: because the odds makers are not stupid.
• 53:42
  Speaker 5: They know what's going on here, so usually... You want
• 53:45
  Speaker 5: to go under lower totals.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: And over higher totals. 69% of tickets, 93% of the
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: cash on Milwaukee. So the money's coming in on Milwaukee here.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know for sure about that. I mean, I
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: think Milwaukee probably, Harrison is probably better than Holmes. He
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: is a little bit worried.
• 54:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, he is, but he's a little bit worrisome
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: on the road though.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I would probably trust Harrison over Holmes plus
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's bullpen.
• 54:08
  Speaker 5: So I guess matchup wise, it makes sense. From Milwaukee.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: I think situationally though. I think the Cubs might be
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit more motivated though. Because they're the team
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: that's behind Milwaukee. And they're in the wild card hunt here.
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: Alright.
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: I'm going to take a quick break. I'll be right back.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: We have nothing besides baseball today. So I don't have
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: any more plays either. I just have the one play today.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: But I'll be right back. And talk about these other
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: five games.
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: Yep. Inside. I want to kill myself.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: days after tonight.
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: It was just complete bullshit.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: So that's how I'm going to start off this show.
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: Horrible Sunday.
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: 1-5.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: With the slump continuing.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 55:05
  Speaker 5: Have not had a good season, man.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: With weekends.
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: Slump.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think.
• 55:25
  Speaker 5: Who even knows, man. I don't know what day it
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the.
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: Worst day that I could possibly have.
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: Back with you as I always am.
• 55:37
  Speaker 5: Until I die, at least.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did.
• 55:42
  Speaker 5: Not go well for me. 0-5, the worst month.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: That I've ever had in my 18 years doing this.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: This point other than potentially end it all. Okay, next
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: game is A's and Rangers. Texas is returning home from
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: a road trip. And, you know, as I always say,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: it could be a distraction spot. You got to get
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: back to home life. I know it's a divisional matchup.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: The A's are actually not in last place. The Angels are,
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: but the A's are pretty bad. So Texas might overlook
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: it a little bit, although they did just lose a series.
• 56:30
  Speaker 5: On the road.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: To the a's not that long ago so they might
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: take them a little more seriously for that reason but
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: they're coming up beating the brewers yesterday texas did end
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: a losing streak and sometimes that will give you new
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: momentum but i never like a team to return home
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: spot man i will almost never play on a team
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: i might stay off the game and i am here
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: but um yeah i don't love it man it's it's
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: usually not a good spot although texas is the more
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: motivated team here but that's a problem because you have
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: to pay a price for them you know what i
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: mean Everybody knows Texas needs to win.
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: They're trying to still win the division.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: They have a name pitcher on the mound here too,
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: so you're going to have to pay too much of
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: a price for Texas here. Texas, they used five relief
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen has not been very good this
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: year either. The A's bullpen is even worse, but yeah,
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: I don't like either bullpen here. The A's have.
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: Lost three in a row, by the way.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: They are starting a road trip after they just got
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: swept by the Orioles. It is a better.
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: Spot for the A's.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: I always look more towards the team starting a road
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: trip and fading the team returning home from one. I
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: might have a slight lean towards the A's in this one,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: although I would only do it in the first five
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: if I was really going to do that. The A's
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: bullpen is terrible. Even though they're 28th, sort of, in whip.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, their whip is tied with Minnesota and Kansas City,
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: like I said. A's are the worst bullpen. I mean,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: let's just, yeah, that is what it is. Texas is
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: 20th in bullpen. They really haven't been that great. A's
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: are probably the better offense. They're 14th tied with the
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Yankees right now. Texas is 20th. The A's have gauged
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: jump on the mound here. Jump, it's hard to get
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: a jump on this guy. Like, He's hard to predict, man.
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: He was good early in the season. I think he's
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: a decent pitcher. I think he's a good strikeout pitcher.
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good on the road, but he's also
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: had a bunch of walk issues, so he's kind of
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: hard to figure out. He's got a 4.69 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 58:28
  Speaker 5: None of that is good, I know.
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: His road ERA is pretty good, though, 3.49, so he's
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: better on the road.
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: He pitched well last time out.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: At home against Minnesota, so maybe he's kind of coming
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: back into form a little bit here. Although last time
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: he pitched well, which was on the road at the
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, he didn't really pitch well in the next start.
• 58:45
  Speaker 5: So I don't know, man.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Overall, his strikeout rate's been good, but he's been walking
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: way too many guys. His hit rate is also kind
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: of mediocre, but his walk rate is way too high.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is also high. So he does have talent,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: and if you do back him, usually you want to
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: do it on the road, but his strikeout walk ratio
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: is really not good because his walk rate is too high.
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine is good.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: It's close to ten. Jump against Texas is good. They
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: have 21 at-bats against them, a 143 average. The only
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: extra base hit is a home run from Berger. They
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: have a 566 OPS. Two strikeouts, four walks isn't very good, though.
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: You look at his last start against Texas, which was
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: in the A stadium, so it's a bad stadium, but
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: it was a few starts ago. He was very mediocre
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: in that start, and he walked too many guys, so
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: he was really not great in that one, but his
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: overall numbers are good against Texas. Jacob deGrom is pitching
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: for Texas. I mean, we pretty much know what he is.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's an aging future Hall of Fame pitcher,
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: but he's not Max Scherzer. I mean, he at least
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: is holding up a bit here. He's a little bit
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: younger than Scherzer. 4.21 ERA, 1.18 whip does indicate his
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: ERA should be better than it is. He's been good
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: at home in this pitcher-friendly environment here, 2.67 home ERA.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: He got obliterated last time out. I don't know what
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: that was. On the road against the White Sox, he
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: was terrible. And his walk rate went way up for
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: some reason. But generally, he's been good. He's had a
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: couple of starts where he's just been way off. And
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: all of his bad starts have come on the road.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: So it's interesting because he's alternating good and bad starts.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: And he's also alternating... home and road starts and all
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: the bad ones are coming on the road so if
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: that all holds up that means he's going to be
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: good here because he's back at home and he'd be
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: in line for a good start this time because he
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: was bad last time so he might pitch well here
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: he does have a low hit rate on the season
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: his walk rate's low as well his strikeout rate's high
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: so those numbers all indicate that his era should be
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: better than this his strikeout walk ratio i mean he's
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: had some seasons where it's been Very elite, not quite
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: that here, but still in the fours is definitely not bad.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: And he still has an 11 Ks per nine, so
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: these numbers are still good. His numbers against the A's
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: are also really good, and 23 at-bats, they only have
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: two hits. They're both actually extra base hits, and they're
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: both from Lawrence Butler. A double and a home run.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Nobody else in this lineup has had a hit off him.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Nobody else has reached base, actually. At least not in
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: an earned fashion, because the one walk is also Butler.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: 9-to-1 strikeout walk ratio, 0.87 average, 386 OPS. You know
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: what I think about this game. First five under, I think,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: is the right way to play this. The money is
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under. I can't back the A's bullpen, though,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: and that's kind of the problem. Full game total, seven
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: and a half, so the odds makers think it's going
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: to be a low-scoring game. I agree with that.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 5: Jump is definitely better on the road. I think he's sneaky, talented.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 5: DeGrom is still pretty good.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: It looks like a good setup for both pitchers. I mean,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: DeGrom is better at home, so home.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: Road splits favor both starters here.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: Matchup numbers look good for both starters. We have the
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: under getting the money here, which I think I just
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: already said. 59% of tickets on the over, 87% of
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. Texas has 91% of the
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: tickets on them and 95% of the cash. You cannot
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: lay Texas here at minus 200 or whatever. I would
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: play the A's in the first five. I was really
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: going to play a side here. I think Jump might
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: be able to duel DeGrom a little bit here. And
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: you know, that's correlated with the under again is a
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: big underdog. Definitely correlated to a lower scoring game because
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: they can hang around more. It would be a run
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: line play on the A's in the first five, a
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: half run, maybe even a full run or whatever. Got
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: to exclude their bullpen, but it would be about mostly
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: the spot and the fact that Jump, I don't think
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: is really that bad. But, yeah, I think under is
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: the better way to play this. The problem is, like,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: you're going to be looking at, like, a three in
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: the first five, and I don't think I'm willing to
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: really take that risk.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 5: But I kind of like it.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: This would not be the last game on the– this
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: would not be the last one that I would play. Like,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: if you were going to ask me to add stuff
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: to my card today, like I said, you know, one
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: of them I already mentioned, which was– yeah, I think
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: it would be the Milwaukee-Chicago– I don't know, Milwaukee-Chicago under–
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: The wind thing really, really worries me in that one, though.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: You know what? I mean, I think this one is
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: actually the next best play. Like, if I was going
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: to add, what else did I say? I forget. I
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: had one other opinion, probably. But, yeah, I think this
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: one would be the next one to make the cut
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: for me. It would be this first five under here.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: But it's going to be a bad number, probably. Like
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: a threesome, whatever. Chicago at Houston. Houston's returning home from
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: a road trip. They had a good road trip. They
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: won both series in New York against the Yankees and
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: the Mets. But, you know, return home spot, it could
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: be a distraction. Houston, two games up in the AL
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: West right now. White Sox coming in. White Sox have
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: a decent lead in their.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 5: Division, though. Three and a half.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: Maybe both teams do show up for this because it's
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: a big battle of division winners. And teams at least
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: want to make sure they're going to hang on to
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: at the very least wild card potential here. However, we
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: all know the Yankees are way ahead in the wild
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: card race. And the Red Sox have a pretty big gap.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: as the second team ahead of everybody else. And it
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: would be just like the Red Sox to completely blow that, though.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: The White Sox coming in from Minnesota. They did lose yesterday,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: so they did lose a win streak, which sometimes will
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: hang you over. But I think it's a better spot
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: for them just because the Astros are returning home from
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: the road. So situation, I think, favors the White Sox here.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think the starting pitching favors them, though. The
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: bullpen might. These bullpens are close, and the offenses.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: Are closely matched, too. The White Sox used two relief
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday. Houston used four.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: The White Sox are, where are they, ranked 15th in
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. Houston's 13th, but the White Sox have the
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: better ERA. It's close. It's a close matchup here, again,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: with the bullpens and with the hitting. White Sox are
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: 8th and hitting. Houston 9th tied with the Red Sox
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: right now. So yeah, close matchup here. Anthony Kaye is
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: pitching for the White Sox. He continues to pitch better
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: than expected. I believe he spent time in the Japanese
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: leagues and worked on his stuff over there. He's like
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Colin Ray, basically. Those two guys both did that. There
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: are a lot of guys that do that, actually. But
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: I still don't think he's that good of a pitcher. 4.09 ERA, 1.34
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: whip is not really that good. He's not that good
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: on the road. 4.89 road ERA, so he is more
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: fadable on the road. His last start wasn't very good
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: at home against Texas. Maybe not a good sign because
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: that's not a good offense. So he seems to be
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: kind of coming out of form a little bit here,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: even though he's been pretty good in the month of August, though.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 5: Good command numbers, good ERA.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is... Not excellent on the season. It's
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: very mediocre. His walk rate is mediocre, I would say,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: as well. It's not too bad, actually. Strikeout rate is
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: also low, so advanced analytics guys won't like him. He
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike guys out. His strikeout walk ratio is somewhat
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: low in the low twos. Strikeout per nine is not
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: excellent in the sevens. So, again, he's not a guy
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: that really fools hitters. K against Houston. Let's see. Has
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: good numbers here, but it's a very small sample. Five
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: hitters have faced him, 10 at-bats. Both hits are from Alvarez.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: One extra base hit in there, a double. Nobody else
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: has reached base against him. Three strikeouts, no walks. It's
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: a 200 average, 500 OPS. I still don't really love K, though,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: even if we have a small sample size where he
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: looks kind of good. I think Peter Lambert is the
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: more talented pitcher. He's pitching for Houston, but he's starting
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: to kind of fade at the end of the season here, man.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: I think this is the most innings that he's pitched
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: in a season so far. Yeah, it definitely is. So
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: he's kind of getting up there in innings. It looks
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: like he's kind of tiring out a little bit, and
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: his walk number's going up, so that's not great. He's
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: had a pretty good season overall, 3.66 ERA, 1.23 whip.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: He's getting a little bit high, though.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: And his ERA's worse at home by a run, 4.05,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: although his opponent batting average is better at home. So
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: some indicators going both ways there, but he's definitely struggling
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: this month.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 5: His ERA's gone way up.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: He had one really bad start against Anaheim, Not a
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: great sign, although he was okay-ish last time out at
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, which is not an easy team to have
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: to face. But he also has way too many walks recently,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: although his strikeout stuff is still working. But he's been
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: too hittable on top of a lot of too many
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: walks recently. On the season, he does have a pretty
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, though. His walk rate is a problem,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is decent. But the walks are
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: definitely an issue here. Strikeout walk ratio, not really that
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: good because of that. His strikeout per nine is the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: best that he's posted, though. So he does have decent
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout stuff this year. But to me, it looks like
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: he is kind of losing his stuff at the end
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: of the season. The White Sox only have eight at-bats
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: against him, four hitters to face him, and they're 0
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: for 8 with a strikeout, no walks.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: So he has been decent there.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you really want to put a ton
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: of weight into those small sample sizes, that would kind
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: of mean that an under somewhat makes sense here. And
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in that way. 62% of the tickets,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: 90% of the cash on the under. Total's eight and
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: a half. The bullpens are okay here. Maybe the pitchers
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: will hold up well enough for it. I think it's
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: pretty dangerous. I don't think I'd want to do it.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: I might slightly agree with that, leaning towards the under.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: I really don't love it, though. And the money is
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: coming in on the White Sox, which... Again, some of
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: it is about value. I think people are going to
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: think that Houston needs the game more or whatever, which
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: they kind of do. They're around minus 130, but when
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: a favorite needs it like that, sometimes that's not the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: way to look, and the pressure is on them.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: I like playing those teams as underdogs, though.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: 63% of the tickets on Houston, 80% of the cash
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: on the White Sox, so a strong market read on
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. I don't really think I trust K,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: but the situation definitely does support it, does favor the
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: White Sox here. It's a close matchup, and maybe, I guess,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to really disagree.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 5: Maybe I will agree with that.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: That, with taking the shot with the White Sox here.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: K is pretty bad on the road, though, man. I
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: don't exactly love that. So... Do what you want with
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: all that info. Baltimore at Colorado. We got a Coors
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: Field game here. Colorado are returning home from a road trip.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: They went to Washington and Atlanta, so they're crossing multiple
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: time zones. They had a pretty bad road trip for
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: the most part. They just got swept by Atlanta.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 5: That's why.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: Although they played pretty well against Atlanta, actually, really. Now
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: they're returning home. You know, I don't like that. When
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: a team returns home from the road, it can be
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: a distraction, whatever. Maybe Sugano will pitch in the series
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: and go up against his former team. I don't know
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: if he's faced them since. Baltimore is coming in with
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: some momentum. They just swept the A's.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 5: Hold on.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an easier view just looking at the homepage
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: here rather than the schedule. Yeah, they just swept the athletics.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: Coming in in the middle of a road trip here,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: so the spot is better for Baltimore, and Baltimore is
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: the better team. So, I would agree with a lean
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: towards Baltimore here, but I think maybe the total is
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: a better way to look here. And I'm, I'm thinking
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: over the white socks or excuse the Rockies didn't use
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: anybody out of their bullpen yesterday. And I was like,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: is that like, does this site just not have the data? Right.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: But no, I looked at it is actually correct. Cause, um,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: Mason Smith, whatever the hell his name is yesterday. Is
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: that his name?
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 5: I forget.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: He did well in the game yesterday, and we still
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: didn't get the Colorado play right, but he was decent.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: He went, I think, a bit more than five innings,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: and then I think they used Feltner or something in relief.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: They used one of their starters in relief for the
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: rest of the game, so they didn't use anybody out
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen, but their bullpen is still ass, so
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: I would not back their bullpen anyway. Baltimore used three
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: guys out of their bullpen yesterday, Baltimore still got the
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. They're number 10 in bullpen. The Rockies
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: are number 27. Rockies are the better offense, number 4.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: Baltimore are number 17, tied with Philly. Baltimore going with
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: Kyle Braddish here. I mean, he's definitely starting to pitch
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: poorly again. He's had some decent numbers in his career,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: but this year has been.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 5: All over the place.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: He's got a 4.03 ERA, but his 1.41 whip is
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: quite bad.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 5: He's not as good on the road.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: 4.5 road ERA with a pretty bad 3.03.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 5: Road upon a batting average.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: Last couple of starts have been bad because walk numbers
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: going up here. He's walked too many guys this month.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: He got obliterated in St. Louis last time. That's not
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: a good sign. I mean, St.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 5: Louis, not a good offense. It's a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: It looks like Brad is just kind of falling out
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: of form right now. His hit rate is kind of
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: mediocre on the season. His walk rate is way too
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: high and his strikeout rate is okay. That's not good
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: enough though. Um, he's had some good seasons in the past. Uh, he's,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: Had injuries the last two years that have really not
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: allowed him to pitch very much. But yeah, his numbers
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: are all worse this year. Strikeout walk ratio is way down,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: close to 2. Strikeout per 9 has gone way down
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: into the mid-8s. So he's not as good as he
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: once was, at least for now. Bradish, he's shown signs
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: of being good this year. But he hasn't been able
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: to sustain it. Bradish against Colorado. They only have one
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: guy who's faced him. Tovar's 0-3 against him with a
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout and no walks.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 5: Not a lot to see there.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, Bradish will be unfamiliar to Colorado, and maybe
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: Colorado's offense will be a little bit off on the
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: return home.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 5: That could happen. That could affect the offense a little bit.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: I like the over in this game, like I said,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: but that would kind of be my hesitation is that
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: Colorado's offense might struggle to get going in a return
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: home spot like this, and Bradish is unfamiliar to them,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: and he does have the potential to pitch okay here.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: Tanner Gordon, I don't think is very good. He's pitching
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: for the Rockies. 5.38 ERA, 1.43 whip. He's been awful
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: in Coors Field. 7.89 home ERA, very bad. Pitched really
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: well last time out, but of course that was on
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: the road against Washington. Seven innings, one run allowed. Last
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: time at home, he gave up a bunch of runs
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: to Cleveland, so that's not good. They're not a good offense. Um,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: he's got good command numbers, but he's been really, really hittable.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: You know, he doesn't strike out a lot of guys.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: Doesn't really walk a lot of guys either, but his
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: hit rate is really, really high. And because of his
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: course field, you do have to look at the fly
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: ball rate and he is a heavy fly ball pitcher.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: He allows a lot of home runs. That's not good.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: By the way, Bradish is actually not, uh.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 5: Bradish, uh, Has allowed some home runs this.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: Year, but he's not a huge fly ball pitcher at all, though.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: So Bradish does have a better style for pitching a
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: course field. Tanner Gordon, though, yeah, just overall, I mean,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: these are ugly numbers here. Although his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: is actually good because he doesn't walk anybody. But when
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: you're way too hittable, it doesn't even matter, and that's
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: what he is. He's way too hittable. Strikeout per nine
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: is not a very good number either. Gordon against Baltimore.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's a really small sample.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: Three hitters have faced him, 10 hitters have faced him,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: 300 average, 600 OPS, two strikeouts, no walks, no extra
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: base hits here. I still think we're looking at pitching.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: This is not very good right now. Uh, even though
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: Gordon was good last time out, he's not good at home.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: Bradish coming out of form here. Totals right on that
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: key number of 11. You might be able to find
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: a 10 and a half somewhere juice to the over.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 5: I think that is what I would do.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: I think I'd play it over even though, yeah, it
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: is a really high total and there are some concerns
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: with it. 77% of tickets on the under 80% of
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. So the money seems to
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: agree with me on the over in this one. Uh,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: Money coming in on Baltimore, I guess, as well, which
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: I already said I agree with that.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 5: I think they're.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: In the better spot, and they have the better pitching
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: throughout the game here, which is really kind of a
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: knock on Colorado. 82% of tickets, 90% of the cash
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: on Baltimore. They're at about minus 130 here, but I
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: think the over would be the preferable way to play that.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 5: Yankees at Anaheim.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: The Yankees might be in a letdown spot here, and
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup, I think, does favor Anaheim. at least
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: in the first five here. Anaheim's also staying at home.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: They've lost seven games in a row. They're not playing well,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: but if anything's going to motivate them, maybe it's the
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: fact that they're in last place again here and facing
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: a team like the Yankees. Maybe the Angels will at
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: least get up for that, but I'm not thrilled at
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: all that the Yankees get to face a bad team
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: like Anaheim. However, the Yankees coming off two wins that
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: were misleading kind of again because the Red Sox fielding
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: totally imploded in the ninth inning in one of them
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: in what could have been a 4-3 game going into
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: the ninth inning in that one on Saturday night and
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: then yesterday that was a nothing nothing game into the
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: fifth inning so kind of misleading there too So the
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: Yankees also probably feeling high off of that series. And
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: now they have to go out West. And you know,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: I talk about this, even though starting a road trip,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of times is a positive. You're usually focused,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: but after you're coming up, beating the Red Sox like that,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: are you really going to be focused on Anaheim and having,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: you're having to travel cross country and play a West
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: coast game. You know, I talk about that. It can
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: mess with your biological clock. So I don't really like
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: the Yankees in the spot. And they have Elmer Rodriguez pitching. So,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: I think partially because they had to play the doubleheader
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: the other day. Rodriguez, he's young, but he hasn't really
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: been very good so far. 4.7 ERA, 1.52 whip is
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: quite bad. He's a little bit better ERA-wise on the road,
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: but his opponent batting average is a lot worse on
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: the road. It's a very small sample, so you can't
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: really gauge much from this. He's made five starts. He
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: did make one recently, so he's on regular rest here
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: pretty much, and he pitched pretty well in that one
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: against Houston. at home, but I don't think he's trustworthy, man.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's mediocre. His walk rate's definitely too high.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate is not very good. So the strikeout per
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: nine is quite bad.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 5: It's in the ones. That's not good.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio, I mean, strikeout per nine, that would
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: be insanely bad. Strikeout per nine is in the sixes,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: which is not good. Anaheim... Has not seen him before,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: so of course there is that. He does have unfamiliarity
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: against Anaheim, and they're a bad offense, but I think
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: he might struggle here, and you know I prefer Walbert
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Urania here, even though he does have command issues, and
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: you do have to worry about his innings pitch count,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: although actually it's not that high yet, so maybe you
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: don't really have to worry about that yet. You have
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: to worry about his walks, though. Urania's had a pretty
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: good season, though, and he definitely does have talent. 2.94 ERA, 1.29 whip,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: and he's pretty good at home.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 5: Let me see.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, 2.54 ERA at home with a 185 opponent batting
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: average at home. He's got to fix the walks, though, man.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: The walks have really hurt him. He's not allowed many
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: runs here, but the walks are killing him. So he's
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: got to get that fixed. That's the one problem with him.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: He's pretty difficult to hit. He's a decent strikeout pitcher.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: He gets a lot of ground balls to get him
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: out of jams, too, but the walks are a huge issue. Walkpert, Urania.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: He's got to fix that, dude. Strikeout walk ratio below
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: two is not going to cut it. Strikeout per nine
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: is pretty good, though.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 5: Close to nine.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. Urania against the Yankees. Let me see.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: They've never seen him before, so he has unfamiliarity here
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: as well. Urania is more established at this point, and
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: I like what we're seeing out of him, except for
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: the walks, of course. I've backed him a few times
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: this year, but I think this is a spot to
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: back him here. I think it's a negative spot for
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. I think Urania might have the upper hand
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: in the starting pitching here against Elmer, the glue guy.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: Is he the glue guy in the locker room?
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: Oh, man, that's a good one. I don't know why
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 5: I didn't think of that before.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but yeah, I would lean Anaheim first
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: five here. There's no way I would back their bullpen
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: But looking at the bullpens, the Yankees only used one
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: guy yesterday because it was a blowout. And they have
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen, obviously. Anaheim used three. The Yankees are
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: the number two bullpen and whip, number.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 5: One in ERA.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and Yankees are both still the top two bullpens.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's not very good at 23rd. Hitting-wise, Anaheim is ass
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: as well. They're 29th, and they're pretty bad at home.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: Yankees 14th, tied with the A's. But given what the
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: situation looks like and what the starting pitching matchup looks like, yeah,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: my lean in this game is Anaheim in the first
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: five and avoiding their bullpen. Money doesn't seem to agree,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: although the Yankees are definitely going to be public, dude.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: Yankees already dropped from minus 150 all the way down
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: to minus 120, so I think there was some money
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: coming in on Anaheim, even though now we see 81%
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 95% of the cash on the Yankees. Maybe some,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, that is full game as well, so maybe
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: some of that is because of the bullpen edge the
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: Yankees have, but Yeah, I think it's a letdown spot
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: plus a bad biological clock spot for the Yankees. And
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: I like Urania over Elmer. So yeah, I would go
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: Anaheim first five here. It would be a money line play.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: They might actually wind up being a favorite, but that's
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: going to look weird. It already looks too easy to
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: play the Yankees. The Yankees have a way better record
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: than Anaheim, so why are the Yankees only favored like this?
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: Obviously, a lot of it has to do with the
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup and the spot. So I think it looks
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: way too easy to play the Yankees there. So that's
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: another reason to look Towards Anaheim. And then we have
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: the latest game. It's Philadelphia at Arizona on ESPN Unlimited.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: And like I said, Arizona is rested. They didn't play yesterday.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: But they're returning home from a road trip. Although it
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: was only a road trip to San Francisco. And they
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: lost 2 out of 4. And Arizona is still fighting
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: for a wild card spot here. They're probably happy that
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: San Diego got swept in Tampa Bay. Because that's kept
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: Arizona ahead of them in the standings. I think San
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: Diego is the better team though. Arizona is pitching. Not
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: as good as San Diego's, especially not the bullpen, in
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: my opinion. But Arizona's returning home. But again, only a
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: four-game road trip, so it might not be that bad,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: just having to go back to Arizona. So I don't
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: think it's that negative of a spot for Arizona. Plus,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: they do have a rest edge here. Philadelphia played against
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: Anaheim yesterday, so they're already out in the western United
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: States here. So their travel spot's not too bad either.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: They swept Anaheim, which should give them some new momentum.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: And this is actually a wild card battle. Philadelphia is
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: ahead of Arizona on the wild card race, but I
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: don't think it's by that much. So these teams are
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: both going to have to be focused here, man. They
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: both need to win these games. So that's pretty big. Now,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: Arizona has the rested bullpen here, so they will have
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge. Philadelphia used three guys yesterday. Arizona's the
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: eighth-ranked bullpen, although I don't think they're that good. Eighth-ranked.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: They're okay. Philadelphia is worse, though. Philadelphia is 18th, but
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: their ERA... Actually, Philadelphia's ERA is only a little bit worse.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: But yeah, given the rest and whatever as well, Arizona
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: definitely has a bullpen edge there. Hitting-wise, both teams have
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: been a bit better recently. Philadelphia is 17th, tied with
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: the Orioles. But Philadelphia is not as good on the
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: road at hitting. And Arizona, 19th. But this is a
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: hitter-friendly ballpark. We have two pitchers in this game who
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: have both turned their seasons around, man, so that's interesting.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: Two pitchers that were not pitching well for the majority
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: of the season, and now they kind of both are,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: especially Aaron Nola for Philly.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 5: He's been pitching way better recently.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: He kind of looks like his old self, and that's, again,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: like people were saying, oh, Nola, he doesn't have it
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: anymore after his surgeries.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: He should be out of the league. I'm like, no,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 5: I don't agree because he was quite good.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: In the past like before those surgeries he's only 33
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: I was like nope I think you got to give
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: him a chance to turn this thing around his season
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: numbers are not good there's no doubt about that and
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: last year they weren't good either 5.03 ERA 1.4 whip
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: but he's doing exactly what he did last year and
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: he started to pitch well at the end of the
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: season when it's the most important and he's also better
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: on the road for whatever reason 4.42 road ERA with
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: a much lower opponent batting average on the road so
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: I think this setup is a pretty good for him
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: here and And he's got good numbers in the month
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: of August, man. Phillies won the majority of his starts.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: His walk number hasn't been that great, but his strikeout
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: rate's been really high, and his ERA's low. He's allowed
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs at every start, going all
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: the way back through his last start in July. So
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well right now, although his hit rate is
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: high on the season. He's allowed way too many home runs,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: which might be a problem in a stadium like this.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: But he's definitely in way better form right now. His
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: walk rate is, I guess, okay on the season. His
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is actually good. So he's still striking guys out.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio is still at least above 3,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: which is not horrible. Strikeout per 9 above 9 is
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: not horrible either. Numbers against Arizona, I believe, are also
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: not horrible. Yeah, he's pretty good against them in 120 at-bats,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: 22-6 strikeout walk ratio, 242 average allowed. 628 OPS. I
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: think Nola is backable. He's in good current form. He's
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: good on the road or better on the road, at
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: least has good matchup numbers here. Yeah, I think he
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: might pitch well here. Brandon Fott is pitching on the
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: other side for Arizona. He turned his season around. We
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: know they sent him to the minors. He came back
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: up from the minors, and he started pitching way better. However,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: his last two starts I don't think have been that good, though.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: But for the most part, he's been way better since
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: coming back. But it seems like he might be falling
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: out of form again right now. He's turned his season
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: around for sure. 3.51 ERA, 1.14 whip.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 5: So his season numbers are good at this point.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: He's kind of similar home and away. His ERA is
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: worse at home, but his opponent batting average is better
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: at home, so do what you want with that info.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: Last couple starts, he was a little bit worse, but
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: he still wasn't really that bad. He still posted an
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: 11-2 strikeout walk ratio, and Arizona still won both games.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: So even though he got a little bit worse, which
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: was at Fenway against the Red Sox and then at
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: home against the Cubs, and we know the Red Sox
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: are a hot offense recently, and The Cubs are also
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: hot right now. They've been a good offense most of
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: the season. So maybe we don't put too much into that.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, he does have a good strikeout walk ratio
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: this month. Isn't allowing many hits, isn't allowing many runs.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: Over the course of the season, pretty low hit rate.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is definitely low. Strikeout rate is not
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: high at all, but he's figuring out how to pitch
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: without being able to strike guys out, I guess. His
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is somewhat okay, I guess. Strikeout per nine,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, those numbers are still lower than he's ever
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: posted before. Strikeout per nine, not that good either, but
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: these numbers have all improved a bit since he came
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: back from the minors, at least. Fought against Philadelphia has
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: not been good, though. In 101 at-bats, 317 average, 919 OPS,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: 26-6 strikeout walk ratio, so That's what I don't like
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: about this year. So we have rest edge on the
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: side of Arizona, maybe the motivational edge there on Arizona,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: and the money is coming in on Arizona.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 5: 66% of tickets on Philly, 64%.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: Of the cash on Arizona. They're a little bit of
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: an underdog here, which may be part of the reason
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: why as well. And Arizona has the rest edge, like
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: I said. But Nola has the better matchup numbers here, man.
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: And I think he's in the better form right now, too.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: So I kind of leave Philadelphia here. It is still
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: technically a return home spot for Arizona. Philly, that momentum
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: might just carry through. It's not like the game yesterday
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: was that difficult, really, against Anaheim. Even though it was
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: a close game for a while, it's still Anaheim. So
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: I think I like Philly in this one, actually. But
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: I would do it first five, probably, because I don't
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: really trust Philly's bullpen. And I don't think it's an
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: advantage to them. And the money's also coming in on
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: the over. But I like the under in this game.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: You've got a rested Arizona bullpen. Maybe we could trust
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: Philly's bullpen enough. But I think both starters, because they've
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: both turned their seasons around, and they've both been way
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: better since then, like the last month or so. I
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: like the under 8.5 in this one, too.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 5: But the money coming in on the over... 58%.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: Of tickets on the under 94% of the cash on
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: the over. Uh, yeah, I think my preference probably is
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: slightly Philly first five, but I think the over or
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: excuse me, the under, excuse me, the under, uh, I
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: also like in that one and that's it, man. No
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: WNBA cause they're going into the women's basketball cup, world cup,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell, nobody's going to watch that shit.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 5: Uh, Whatever.
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it, I think. My only play
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: today is San Diego on the money line. I think
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: it's a good spot play. We're fading a team that
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: had a big win in the night game last night,
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: and they're not a good team. That's Cincinnati. And they're
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: also returning home from the road... negatives all around there
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: and even though both pitchers have good matchup numbers i
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: think we are backing the better pitcher here with san
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: diego we're backing the team that needs it more and
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: i don't need does factor into the line but even
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: so you're asking them to do exactly what they're going
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: to be trying to do which is just win the
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: game so the motivation is there for that maybe the
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: price is a little bit risky but And the fact
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: that San Diego torched their bullpen yesterday. But I'm still
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: doing it because I hate the Reds' bullpen. If you
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: want to go first five on that, you could as well.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: But San Diego is my only play. That's going to
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: do it. Learn to Tone on Twitter. Learn to Tone
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: on Instagram. Like, subscribe to this channel here. You'll get
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: notified when I go live. Just had Clint over here.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: We couldn't really get a live or an in-real-life version
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: of Bald going because I don't have an extra mic
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: jack here. But.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: We'll do an episode of Bald probably this week to
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: preview the NFL. And I'm going to do probably a
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: final NFL preview show myself as well. Maybe not. Maybe
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: Bald will cover it.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: But subscribe and you'll get notified for that. We're on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: So check that out over there as well. Covered in
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: you because my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can check
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: that out. Patreon.com slash learn to toe to support me there.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: Loser cast will be back tomorrow night. every Tuesday night
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: and the New York giants G spot podcast.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: If it's still happening, that's going to do it.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: Thanks guys.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 5: Happy Monday.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: Let's let's keep going here, man. It was a decent
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: week last week, so let's keep it going. I feel
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: like we're still kind of treading water here though, but
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: let's let's get some wins here. Well, I mean, it's
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: one play today.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 5: It's either a win or a loss. It's just the
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 5: way that it is. But that's going to do it. Peace.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: Let somebody know.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: You do not have.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 4: To lose this round alone.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: Oh.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: Hold on Let me.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: Pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it don't.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: now
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo