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BREAKING: Josh Jacobs to the Commissioner's Exempt List · BDGE Fantasy Football

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Here I was, trying to enjoy my Sunday, one of the few Sundays we have left before football.
• 0:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dominates our life, and we are hit with breaking news, running back for the Green Bay Packers.
• 0:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Joshua Jacobs has been placed on the commissioners' exempt list.
• 0:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: The commissioners' exempt list is basically the NFL's way of putting a player on paid leave.
• 0:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: The player still gets paid.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: They cannot practice or be with the team.
• 0:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: They can't play in games.
• 0:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: They can't attend games in a normal capacity.
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is not technically a suspension.
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: The NFL typically uses it when there's a serious off-the-field situation.
• 0:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's being actively investigated and the league wants to let that play out a little bit more gather more information before they make a hard decision.
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: The tough part here is like, there's no fixed time table for the commissioners exemplist could be done in 10 days.
• 0:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: They could take them off it.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: They could put them out for the entire year.
• 0:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is stemming from two charges that Josh Jacobs is currently facing right now.
• 0:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Two misdemeanors, saturday and criminal damage to property.
• 0:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, the headlines on Twitter have gone above and beyond that, there is an aspect of domestic abuse here, which haven't been confirmed yet, but anytime you kind of throw that into the picture, things start to get very messy and polarizing.
• 1:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: And clearly, that made it messy enough to the point where the NFL was like, you guys figure it out until then, Josh, you're out.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: So what that means for fantasy becomes difficult, obviously, because we don't have an actual timeline on when things are going to happen, but I did pull some numbers here of previous exempt list examples, how long people were out for ones that are most common to Jacob's situation.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can see the chart here.
• 1:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: One of the more notable ones is obviously Adrian Peters and back in 2014, the kid situation got suspended for the entirety of the year.
• 1:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, one thing to note with Commissioner's exempt list games missed, if you're on the exempt list and then they suspend you from the findings.
• 1:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: A lot of the times the games that you've missed from the Commissioner's exempt list will count towards this suspension.
• 1:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if they hand down a six game suspension after week five for Josh Jacobs, there's a very good chance to actually only miss his one more game and those first five games that he said out for count towards his suspension.
• 1:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, though, I would say the majority of cases so far has resulted in somewhere from five to seven to nine games miss, so I think that's probably the safest way to look at it.
• 2:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And to be honest, that actually might be a little conservative because sometimes what the NFL has done is wait for the court date to happen to take place for the actual proceedings like move forward before making a decision.
• 2:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not saying that that's what they're going to do, but it is one piece of information that we currently have.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: at hand right now.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're kind of grasping at straws, but Josh Jacobs' court date is mid-November, which would be around like week nine or ten.
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if they do end up waiting for that, then handing down the suspension, he might not be back until then.
• 2:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: But overall, anyone telling you that that's what's going to happen for a fact doesn't know what the fuck they're talking about.
• 2:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to speak on this from like a legal perspective, but I will say the misdemeanor charges don't seem like overwhelmingly detrimental unless something in the video comes out that's kind of brutal, but the police already had their hands on this video prior to the charges being dropped that wasn't like a new video that came to surface.
• 2:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if there was something like super, super detrimental, they likely would have charged in with something more than just the misdemeanors that they did.
• 3:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, from a fantasy perspective, the way I would be looking at this would be like, okay, we're probably going to misjake up somewhere from like the
• 3:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: And what that obviously does is open up the door for March on Loat.
• 3:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I think a lot of people were worried about Jacobs coming into the already.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was dealing with growing issues throughout the summer.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: He had a lot of lower body injuries last year.
• 3:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: The offensive line is definitely suspect coming into the year.
• 3:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: But it was always a really lucrative backfield situation as it relates to fantasy football.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: The dominate on the goal line.
• 3:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: They give Josh Jacobs a billion characters down there.
• 3:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: He scores a lot of touchdowns.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: They get rid of a manual Wilson who had stepped in for Josh Jacobs last year when he missed a game or two in a manual Wilson was a, you know, a fantasy running back one, and that's what it seems like as being projected onto anyone who's kind of taking over that role mainly March on Lloyd.
• 3:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, March on Lloyd is missed the majority of his career up to this point after being a day to pick by the Green Bay Packers, but it's clear that like when he's playing he has incredible juice.
• 3:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's got the size 220 pounds ran a 4, 4, 6, 40 yard dash.
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So he's got like real real explosiveness that Josh Jacobs really did not bring to this offense.
• 3:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's been able to stay healthy all summer.
• 3:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's been taking basically a bell-cow role in all of their preseason games so far.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's very clear he was a very, very high-end hank of two Jacobs prior to this news.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: So as far as my rankings, which you guys can always find, BGE.co.
• 4:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're a fantasy member, Outlooks have been updated.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Rankings have been updated for both Jacobs and Lloyd.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jacobs has obviously plummeted.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was like my RB 13 or 14 to start the summer.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Since the news of him going on in commissioners' exemplists, he's like the RB 37 in my rankings.
• 4:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: right now.
• 4:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Someone you're not using single-digit-round draft capital on and on the flip side, Marshan Lloyd, I think deservedly so has flipped him significantly and he's inside my top 30 running backs right now at my RB29 slot.
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I know this is going to be a lot lower than most people are probably thinking about when it comes to Marshan.
• 4:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if you want to go a little higher, I've got no problem with it, but I don't think this is just like a blank slate Just because we saw a manual Wilson have one or two big games last year.
• 4:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Does not mean that auto-translate to Marsh on Lloyd.
• 4:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again I think this offensive line's gonna struggle and I think it's not right to just completely look past the Injuries that Marsh on Lloyd is dealt with over the last two years and assume we're just gonna hold up now for 16 games and that that's another really big point 16 games is March on Lloyd the guy for 16 games unlikely again.
• 5:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: better against Jacobs being suspended for the entirety of the year.
• 5:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And listen, I think this presents a ton of risk for Jacobs.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: One of the reasons that I'm like going to be way lower in him than March on Lloyd is that even if Jacobs misses, you know, six games or seven games or eight games, if March on Lloyd plays really well, I think there's a really good chance that he comes back on March on Lloyd and Josh Jacobs are splitting carries.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think there's risk on both sides for like the first month and a half.
• 5:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: Martian Lloyd's going to be do that.
• 5:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be very hard to rank outside of your top 12 running backs outside of your top 15, probably at worst because the spy in this offense is just so lucrative.
• 5:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: They did just trade for Caleb Johnson shot out the goat.
• 5:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: He has like a total of 12 NFL carries so far.
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: But he was a day two pick round three by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: But they really don't have a committee there.
• 5:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is possible that Christopher Brooks, who is still there, does play a little bit of a third down roll here.
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe they split a little bit with Lloyd and Chris Brooks.
• 5:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think it will be the majority of March on looking.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Getting a lot of touches here.
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think I'll have a lot of explosive games over the first half of the season.
• 5:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: But that's kind of the overwhelming point here is you win fantasy football championships over the second half of the season.
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: If we're going to project Josh Jacobs to miss somewhere between six to eight to ten games, he will be back over the second half of the season.
• 6:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: which makes Marsh on Lloyd a tough bullet to buy before the seventh round in fantasy drifts.
• 6:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I get it, the upside is tantalizing.
• 6:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: He might alone help you in five or six games over the first half of the season.
• 6:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think a sneaky winner too is just the passing gaming Green Bay.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: They've gone so run heavy over the last couple of years with Josh Jacobs and I do think a lot of that actually had to do with the fact that most of the receivers just happen to be hurt.
• 6:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Can't really trust a lot of the receivers that were playing behind the hurt receivers.
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you'd imagine that there's going to be an uptick in just passing volume for the Green Bay Packers.
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm not going to like significantly move my rankings on Jordan Love, Christian Watson or anything like that, but I will say as someone who owns Christian Watson and you're already a league mates, I am, you know, semi-pleased with the news.
• 6:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I still think we're completely up in the air on what happens here.
• 6:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think every single time someone on Twitter starts to like have rumors of what's going to happen.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, the court dates not to November, so likely not being suspended until next see.
• 7:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Anytime you hear, oh, probably nothing happening until next season, I would say like an 85% hit rate on being wrong.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: like that shit just never happens.
• 7:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: So here we are.
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, you've got to tank Josh Jacobs in the rankings, of course, because we have no idea how long he's going to be out for.
• 7:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the longer he does end up out for the riskier it is that he ends up back in a committee when he does come back to this backfield.
• 7:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: And on the flip side, yeah, shoot March on Lloyd up your rankings.
• 7:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think if you drafted them already in the 10th or 11th or 12th round, phenomenal for you.
• 7:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: You've got a plug-and-play RB2 with RB1 weekly upside until Jacob gets back.
• 7:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I will caution you again, I wouldn't overextend myself to grab a March on Lloyd in the 4th or the 5th round because I do believe Jacob's will be back.
• 7:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I do believe a guy like March on Lloyd probably has a little bit of an elevated injury risk.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to hold that too much against him because he's not injured going into the year.
• 7:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, ball players just get injured.
• 7:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: That should happen.
• 7:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: But his level of injury volume is is a little bit concerning.
• 8:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we'll see what happens, but kind of my take on it right now.
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't spend any real draft capital on Jacobs.
• 8:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: It goes outside around 10 or something.
• 8:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you could look at it in the same way that you're looking at Jordan Tyson.
• 8:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Where it's like cool to kind of have him sitting on your bench there.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: You didn't have to spend a lot of capital on them.
• 8:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And maybe second half of the year you get, you know, a ball player if you line up.
• 8:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll wrap up there.
• 8:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: As more news comes out, again, I will always be adjusting our rankings in the draft.
• 8:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: I will always be updating the outlooks for every single fantasy relevant player.
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you've got drafts tonight tomorrow over the coming week, go to BDE.co.
• 8:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Go grab yourself a fantasy membership, best product on the market hands down.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, I love y'all.
• 8:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Spoke cheese.