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Rays/Blue Jays MLB + NFL + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Sunday 9/28/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends the slump
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached into pink. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I don't
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what data is anymore. I don't even know
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you after the
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: worst day that I can possibly have with you, as
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I always am until I die, at least oh and two.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the slump, praise,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you. This is better off dead. Sunday,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: September twenty eighth, I do a four NFL plays on
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: tap for today. If you guys want the full analysis
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: on that, go check out the NFL video. Well, I'm
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: having a seizurey. I don't know what ESPN is doing
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: over here. I did not have the NFL doubling game
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: on that is happening right now. I know the Steelers
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: are winning right now. I did mention that I leaned
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: to the Steelers in that game. I thought it was
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a fairly difficult handicap though, So again, thanks for hanging
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: out from my NFL video last night. Go check that
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: out if you are interested. If you want to see
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: the analysis on the plays, I will post them on
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Instagram shortly as well. Once I'm done with this video.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: But we got to talk about WNBA playoffs today. The semifinals,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: and we got Major League Baseball the last day of
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the regular season, so we will talk about it. I'm
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: only gonna have one play in each of those sports,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: so we will talk about that in a second. Yesterday
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: was a four and two day. I talked about it
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: last night, but I'll just rehash it real quick. We
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: started off four and oh, I mean it was going
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: real nice. My college football has been really good for
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the basically six week one. At this point, we think
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: good post week one. I should say Kansas State easy
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: win for US yesterday and not really a whole lot
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: to talk about there. They got the job done. Iowa
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: was a wired to wire cover on the plus eight
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: and a half and people complaining about that, saying the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: game was rigged. I talked about it last night. I
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: got it slightly wrong because I thought there was more
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: time left on that uh supposedly rigging play at the
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: end of the game. But first of all, Iowa was
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: obviously the right side the whole way, Like if you
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: laid the points with Indiana, you were on the wrong side, Like,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: just deal with it. Iowa was winning the game thirteen
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: to ten deep into the game in the fourth quarter,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: so like you're laying the points of Indiana. Your handicap
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: is Indiana scores a shit ton of points, man, Like
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: that's what they're gonna do again. They're gonna outscore Iowa
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: because their offense is better. Yeah. No, my handicap was right.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I said, Iowa is the best defense they're gonna be
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: facing so far. I was gonna slow the game down.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Iowa is going to Yeah, just play defense, run the football,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: stay in the game. That is exactly what happened. I
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: was correct. People that laid the earlier numbers, like I
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: think there was Indiana minus seven out there. I think
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: was the opener, Like that was where it opened for
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: the week. I think so. People who laid that were
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: trying to get out of it with a push. But
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: it's like, if you even got out of that game
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: of the push, you got really lucky, man. And really so.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Indiana did finally score a touchdown after they retied the
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: game at thirteen, really late in the game. They scored
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: a very late touchdown to take the seven point lead,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: which was the only time they were leading by that
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: much in the entire game. Iowa had another shot at it,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: and they were I believe, on the Indiana side of midfield,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: but Iowa, I think they had a backup quarterback then
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I talked about this last and I don't know what
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: they were doing. If Gronowski was hurt, not Gronkowski, their quarterback, Gronowski,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: he might have been hurt because he wasn't in there,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: and whoever was in there throwing just threw like three
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: straight incomplete passes and that was it. So they turned
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the ball over and downs. Indiana takes over I believe
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: with twenty seconds left, but Iowa did have all three
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: of their timeouts left, so Indiana was trying to finish
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the game off, get Iowa to used the rest of
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: their timeouts, try to get a first down if you can.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: But I think Indiana ran the ball three straight times
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: just to force Iowa to use all their timeouts. So
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: what really happened is it got into a situation where
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: it was fourth down. I don't know how many yards
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Indiana still had to go fourth down. I think it
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: was more than I think it was at least fourth
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: and five, I want to say, so not really like
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a high percentage that you're gonna pick that up if
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: you go for it. But there were three seconds three
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: seconds up to that point, I thought there were twenty,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: but it was twenty. At the start of the drive.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Ioway use all three of their timeouts. Enough time came
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: off the clock that it came down to three seconds.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Indiana had to do something because it was fourth down.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: They didn't want to punt the ball because there is
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: still the risk that there's gonna be a punt return touchdown.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: There's still some risk there if you run a play
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: and you get stopped, Iowa might get the ball back
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: on your side of the field and have one shot
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: at like a hail Mary. So you don't even want
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: to give them that shot either. So people were saying
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: this was rigged. I actually don't think so. This is
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: like a Bill Belichick move where the safest option is
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: to just go into the shotgun. So your quarterback is
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: far away from everybody, snap it to him and have
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: him immediately just grab it and run backwards all the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: way through out of the end zone. Never get hit
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: and take the safety and it's gonna take the rest
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: of the time off the clock and you win the game.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Or I mean, he doesn't even have to run out
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: of bounds. Really he could have. He could maybe like
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: try to go for the sideline, but that's a little
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: bit more dangerous that he's gonna get caught because he's
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: not as fast Mendoza, and he actually did screw it up.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: He got tackled in the end zone, so there was
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: still a chance he was gonna fumble and then Indiana
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: was gonna recover it. But I think that was the idea,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: like just run straight forward, run out of the back
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: of the end zone, never get hit, and nobody can
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: do anything about it, and that's the safest option to
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: win that game. So people were complaining that was rigged.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: I really don't think so, and I think it's cope
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: because just deal with it. You were on the wrong side, man,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Iowa was the correct side. Plus the points there. We
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: got another one right after that with Oklahoma State against Baylor,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: got a little bit close near the end. Oklahoma State,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I believe was covering the whole game wire to wire,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: but Baylor did extend the lead to eighteen late in
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the game. It was eleven pretty late in the game.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: They did get a touchdown and then Baylor did get
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: down into Oklahoma State territory again, but they had a
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: really really long possession and wound up being able to
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: just run all the rest of the clock out and
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: never scored again. So thankfully we got that one right
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: as well. And then we had and even for the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: people that didn't get the twenty one, they still got it.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: And then Florida Atlantic was the only loss at college
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: football and was very frustrating because you look at the
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: final it makes it look like I wasn't even close,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: which is that couldn't be further from the truth. Florida
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Atlantic was covering that for almost the entire game. They
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: were within six with like nine minutes left in the game,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: they were only down six. They wound up giving up
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: two scores after that point, and then they were down sixteen,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: so there was still only one point away from covering.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: That was the only point in the game at that
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: point where they hadn't been covering. So it's like, all right,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: get possession back. They do have a decent quarterback, Velt Camp,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: you can get downfield, you can get a touchdown. You know,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: you just score anything at this point, although they'd go
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: for a touchdown at that point because they're down two touchdowns,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: gonna go for a touchdown, but it's possible you can
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: get a touchdown. Here, but no, they wind up turning
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: it over on downs. Memphis, they turned it over run
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: downs in their own territory. Memphis got another touchdown right
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: off that. Because Memphis, I don't know if Fau let
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: them score the touchdown just to try to get the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: ball back again or what happened. Memphis scored another touchdown.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Then on the ensuing kickoff, I'm pretty sure Fau fumbled
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the kickoff return. Memphis recovered it and then scored another
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: touchdown immediately right after that, So it made the score
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: look way way different than it actually was. Very misleading
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: final result in that one. And then baseball, we started
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: out with a win on the first five under in
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Pirates Braves. That was an easy one. It was one
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: to one at the end of five. The full game
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: went under two, I think, with a Pirate three to
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: one win, and then we did not get the Royal
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: excuse me, the A's right against the Royals in the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: late game. Royals scored an unnurned run early and then
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: it was just you needed the A's to just score
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: one run at that point to at least push your bet.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Didn't happen in the first five. They wound up losing
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: the game four to two, I think, but they were
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: down three to nothing at the end of five. I
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: think gave up a couple more runs in the top
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: of the fifth, so that was it. It sucks. What
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: can you do NFL today? Go watch my NFL video
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: for the analysis on this. We got some ugly plays today. Man.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: We got the Giants plus six and a half. I
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: had said that keep an eye out and you don't
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: have to like, you didn't have to take it right away.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: You could potentially find a seven maybe out there. I
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: think it's still unlikely, but maybe New England Patriots minus
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: five and a half or minus five if it's out there.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Atlanta minus one and a half, which I wish. I
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: got the plus two and a half earlier. But the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: line moved basically because it was just announced for sure
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: that Jane Daniels wasn't gonna play, so that the line
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: was somewhere like in the middle. That's where the oddsmakers
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: came out with the line just not sure which quarterback
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: was gonna play. So I think that's really why the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: line did move. But it's still basically pick the winner situation.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So I like Atlanta, and then I do have my
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts plus three and a half, which hopefully I'm
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: not factoring bias into this. Vegcaus I like the Giants.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: With Jackson Dart, I like him. I like that it's
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: his debut. I like the Colts, but I have non
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: biased analysis and reasons for why I'm actually making those plays.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So go check it out on the show from last night. Today,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about WNBA. Try to get this done quickly.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: We do have both semifinals in action. Here. Vegas is
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: winning two to one against Indiana. This is the afternoon game.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: It's at Indiana. If Indiana is if they win this game,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: it's gonna go back to Vegas for a game five,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the decisive game five. Indiana's facing elimination, though in they
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: are getting points at home, so I would lean to
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: that side. In this game, Vegas sixty two percent of
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: the tickets on them, ninety six percent of the cash
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: coming in in Indiana, so the money is agreeing with me.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Vegas down from four and a half to four. On
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the line here, the line is basically the same as
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: it was in the previous game. It was like three
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think, so little bit of extra
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: value maybe by about a half point on Indiana. It
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: is a zigzag spot though. So the Vegas Vegas blew
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: out Indiana, well, the didn't blow them out, but they
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: beat them a double digits in the last game. And
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: if you look at what happened in this game, a
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of an outlier here, Vegas shot pretty ridiculously.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: They shot over fifty percent from the field, while Indiana
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: was a ridiculously low thirty five point six percent from
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the field, So there is room for some regression back
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: to some sort of mean here, and Vegas forty percent
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: from three, I don't think that's gonna happen again. Indiana
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: somehow won the rebounding battle, which is kind of crazy,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: and lost the turnover battle at home, so Indiana does
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: have some room to fix what went wrong there, which
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: is why the zigzag works, because the team that played
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: poorly has all the adjustments to make, and the other
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: team that played well doesn't have any adjustments to make.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So I think Indiana will make adjustments. I don't think
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Vegas could shoot forty percent from three this time. I
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: don't think Indiana is gonna shoot that poorly again, but
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I do have some reservations about it. In Vegas, they
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: have a lot of experience. Man, They've been here before.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: They've been in the playoffs almost every year the last
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: like four years or whatever. They think they've been to
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the semifinals all but last year out of those years,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: so they do have experience. They have the MVP, of course, Wilson,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: they're definitely a They're one of the best teams in
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the league for sure. In Indiana, of course, we know
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: they're without Clark and Cunningham still and they've been playing
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: pretty competitively despite that. But at some point I think
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: that thin roster is gonna catch up to them and
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: they're just not really as experienced, so at some point
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that's going to defeat them. But I do agree with
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Indiana on the side in this one. However, I think
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the better way to look in the WNBA is the
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: night game, and we're gonna take the points with Minnesota
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: plus five and a half, which I know it looks
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: like a ridiculous line. So obviously there's got to be
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: an injury here, right, Yes, Oh there is. So Collier
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's best player and I think she was runner up
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: for the MVP this year. She got hurt late last
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: game and she is not going to play in this game.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: So you know, I always talk about this. Now it's
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: the injured player theory spot. So I think it's a
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: zigzag and it's an injured player theory spot for Minnesota here.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So a lot of things that I look for coinciding
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: in this game. Man. The injured player spot is when
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: your star player goes down. That first game that she's out,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the team really really steps up their effort to try
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: to compensate for her not being there. They tend to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: play with a lot of effort, and Minnesota is gonna
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: play with as much effort as possible anyway, because they're
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: on the verge of elimination after losing Game three in
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: this series. They lost Game one at home inexplicably after
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: blowing a twenty point lead. I was on Minnesota. Oh no,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: that was Vegas. Right, What am I saying? No? That
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: was Vegas? I think, right, I don't even know what
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about anymore. Man, No, they won game one,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: excuse me, the one game one, and then they know
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: they blew the twenty point leading game two. That's what
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking. Yeah, they And then I was on Minnesota
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: in Game three and it did not work out. They
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: wound up losing the game. So uh yeah, Minnesota's facing
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: a limit because of that. Now, so you get the
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: team that's really the better team. I think even without Callier,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: you might be able to argue that the better team.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So this line on Phoenix is kind of ridiculous, man Like,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: they probably get two to three points for home court
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: just because it's the playoffs. But I think if they
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: do that, Minnesota is still the better team in my opinion,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: even without Callier. So I don't think this line should
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: be anywhere close to this, man Like. I mean, it
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: just seems a little bit insane to me. Like, I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: think it should probably be like maybe somewhere around Phoenix
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: minus two I think would be more of a legit
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: line here. Five and a half is insane. I know
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Collier is good, but this Minnesota team has been the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: best team in the league all year. They've played some
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: games without her. I mean, it's just ridiculous for this
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: line to move to this extent, and you're getting Minnesota
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the best team in the league in the injured player spot.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: So ton of effort because of that up against elimination,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: tons of effort because of that too, getting a bunch
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: of points. I mean, I think you have to do
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: with this. This line has moved way too much. It's
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a complete overreac action to last game's result. And to
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: call here being out Minnesota was minus four in the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: last game. And now this line. You're telling me that Collier,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: her being injured alone is worth moving this line nine
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: and a half points. Are you kidding me? There's no way,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: absolutely not. The value was obviously on Minnesota here, There's
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: no question about it. And again they're in a zigzag
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: spot too because they lost yesterday. They lost a couple
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: days ago on the road. In the previous game. It
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: was a close game. Yes, I know Collier did play
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: most of that game, and yes, I guess when she
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: went out of the game late in the game. Minnesota
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: basically didn't even score again. But if you look at
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the stats here in, Minnesota had a really bad game,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: uh twent from three. Even though they won the turnover battle,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: which just kind of ridiculous, they did lose the rebounding battle,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: and they lost the field goal battles. Well, they only
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: shot forty two point three percent from the field, but
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: that three point percentage is a big time outlier twenty
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: five percent. So I think Minnesota has room to make
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: adjustments here, fix what went wrong in the previous game.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: You know, they're gonna step up their effort big time here.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, the number one overall. See, that's been the
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: best team in the league all year. They're not gonna
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: go down like this, like without a fight, you know
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Like people were expecting them to win
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the whole thing. They still have a chance to do that.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: They're up against it here, like, yeah, and you're gonna
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: give them all these points? Okay, Yeah, we'll take Minnesota
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: to cover as a big underdog here. Man, I think
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: there's a ton of value there. Minnesota will make the
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: adjustments here. This line Phoenix was gonna be two and
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: a half and it's all the way up to five
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: and a half now. But the money is coming in
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota fifty seven percent tickets, eighty three percent of
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on Minnesota. And again that's what
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: we're doing. The money agrees with it as well. So yeah,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: yet again another indicator that Minnesota should be the right
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: side here. Yeah. I mean, I don't think you're ever
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: gonna see Minnesota, don't. I don't know if they've been
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: this big of an underdog all year, to be honest,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and it's when they're facing a elimination. So okay, backs
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: against the wall. We'll take Minnesota in that one. And yeah, again,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I think they will adjust their play to you know,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: based on what went wrong in the previous game. Where
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: it's for Phoenix, you don't really have anything to fix.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: After that, let's go to baseball. Baseball, we still have
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: some interesting scenarios here, So Toronto and the Yankees are
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: still trying to figure out who's gonna win the Ale East.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Toronto as the tiebreaker, so the only way the Yankees
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: can overtake them is if they win and the Blue
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Jays lose. Although that's more likely than you think, and
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be happy if it happens, but it
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: is somewhat likely. Cleveland and Detroit are both in the
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: playoffs now because Houston lost again. Yes, I believe Cleveland won.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has the tiebreaker against Detroit, so if Detroit beats
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox today and Cleveland loses, then Detroit can
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: get back into the back of drop the ALE Central.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: So they could still do that, which I think is
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: probably a little bit less likely, but it's definitely possible.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, Cleveland did clinch. I believe they clinched yesterday,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: so they might be in a bit of a hangover
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: spot here just because they made the playoffs, which is crazy.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: And Detroit might come up with some motivation here as
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox don't really have a whole lot left
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: to play for at this point. They know they're in
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: a wildcard spot. We'll talk about it when we get
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: to all those games. So it is I think it's
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: more possible. Actually, it's possible for both these things to happen.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Man for the Yankees to jump Toronto and for Detroit
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: to jump back ahead of Cleveland. Both could happen here.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Houston got eliminated yesterday, so they're in a dream crush
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: or spot here today, so some'th gonna keep in mind.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: And then in the National League, the battles that are
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: still allowed to be fought here, basically just for the
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: last wildcard at this point is the last thing remaining,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: and it is the Mets and the Reds who both
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I believe won again yesterday, so they're both still tied. Yes,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they both won yesterday, so they're still tied. Milwaukee's one
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: game ahead of Philly, and I don't know if Philly
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: has a tiebreaker against them or not, so I don't
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: know if there's a possibility that Philly can overtake Milwaukee
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: for the overall one. See I'm not sure if they
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: can or not, so something to keep in mind there.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: But the big battle is who's gonna get the last
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: wild card. Cincinnati actually has the tiebreaker against the Mets,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: so they have the upper hand in that battle right
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: now because they're tied. Terry Francono with the reds my
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: man from the Red Sox days, I wouldn't mind seeing
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: him back in the playoffs, to be honest, not a
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Mets fan, so if they missed the playoffs, I will
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: not cry about it, although I think the Mets are
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: a lot better than their record looks, so to be
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: extremely disappointing if they didn't make the playoffs. Mostly as
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: far as the National League for the I think for
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: all the rest of the teams are basically locked into
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: where they are in the playoffs. Now, let's take a
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: look at these games. It's all afternoon, play man. Every
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: game is starting between three zho five and three to
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: twenty pm. Eastern This is a tricky day man, the
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: last day of baseball, because motivation definitely matters, but I
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: still think the pitch matchups matter too. Baltimore is at
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, of course. Like I said, the Yankees have
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: something to play for. They won a bunch of games
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: in a row. Unfortunately seven games in a row, playing
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: some bad teams, the White Sox in Baltimore to finish
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: it off. Baltimore probably will show up motivated though, because
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: it's their last game of the season they get to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: face the Yankees. There is a reason for Baltimore to
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: show up here as well. Baltimore has the worst of
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens. They used a little bit more of
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: it yesterday. Yankees have the better offense. Obviously, both bullpens
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: are pretty bad, but I don't know why this is
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: not loading faster, but the Yankees have the better of
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens and the less used bullpen. Kyle Bradish
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: just pitching for Baltimore though, and he just rejoined the
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: rotation not that long ago, and he has been pretty
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: good since. He has two point two to five ERA
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: one whip. He's a little bit worse on the road though.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: The three ERA on the road this month two point
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: zero five VRH twenty nine to ten strike a walk rattio.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: It's a few too many walks, but he's still pitching effectively.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all five
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: of his outings. The Yankees did just see him, but
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: he did hold him to one earn run in six
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: innings in that game, so he is in good for
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: him right now and up against the Yankees in general.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: He has done well, not just in that game but
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: in the past. So I don't know that the Yankees
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: having seen him recently is gonna help them that much
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: because they have not done well against them against him.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: In a fifty four at bat sample size twenty two
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to seven, strike out walk ratio one thirty average allowed
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: four to fifteen ops. So Bradish has done pretty well
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees. Yankees are gonna go with Luis Heel,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: who does have a good ERA three point twenty nine.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched that much this year because he was
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: hurt for most of it. His whip is not good though,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: one point four to four, so he walks too many guys. Man.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: He is veterant home two point three ra at home
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: again his problem is the walks, like he throws too
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: many pitches a lot of times. He's not very efficient.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: I know the Yankees have won all four of US
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: starts this month two point seven to eighty RA. That
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: makes it look like he's really on point right now.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: But he has a ten to twelve strikeout walk ratio
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: this month. So he usually comes out it strikes out
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys at least, but this month is
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate has been way down too. He has four
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: or fewer in every one of his outings, and he
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: has more walks than strikeouts. That is not a recipe
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: for success, man, So he is in line for some
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: sort of regression here. I don't know if it'll come
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore, though, because he has dominated Baltimore in the
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: past forty three at bats fourteen to zero strikeout walk
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: ratio against them. That's pretty ridiculous. Two nine batting average
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: allowed four to sixty five ops. And Baltimore has not
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: seen him this year, so they have not seen him
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: for a while, so they're not gonna be as recently
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: familiar with him. So I would look at the total
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: in this game probably if I was gonna play it,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: and I do think it is a first five under.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: That would be the way I would lean. I think
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: both starters might hold down the opposing bats in this one.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Don't want anything to do with the bullpens. The totals
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: at eight and a half for the full game juice
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: to the over fifty six percent ticket's eighty eight percent
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: of the cash in the over, though, the money coming
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: in on the over, I don't agree with it. I
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: would go under first five, and for what it's worth,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: the money is fading the Yankees. They're down for minus
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: one eighty five to minus one sixty six, eighty six
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Yankees, fifty three percent of
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: the cash coming back in on the Baltimore side though,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: So the money is coming in on Baltimore. If it's
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: just because Bradish is better than Gil excuse a heel,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Gil Bradish is better than He'll, I agree with that.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not gonna like disagree with the market
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: read on that. However, if I was gonna take Baltimore,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: I'd probably do it in the first five innings because
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to deal with their bullpen. So
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: that's probably the way that I would look in that game.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Probably a run line actually on Baltimore in the first
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: five innings because the Yankees are such a heavy favorite.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: White Sox at Washington playing out the stretch here. Terrible,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: terrible match up here. The teams have alternated one run wins,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: both pretty high scoring. I did mention I like the
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: over yesterday which did get there. Washington bounced back after
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: losing in the first game. Both of these bullpens stink.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Washington's is the even worse of the two. The White
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Sox have used a lot of their bullpen recently, Washington's
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: used less of theirs, but I still think basically you
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: want to fade both bullpens here if you're looking at
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: this game, or just avoid banking on them. Chicago has
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two offenses. The White Sox offense
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: is bad. Neither offense is good though. Shane Smith, this
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: pitcher for the White Sox, I think he is the
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: better of these two starters. He's had a pretty good
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: rookie season overall three point nine to eighty RA one
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: point two to four WHIP. He was not as good
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the season, around when he got
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: named to the All Star team as a rookie. I
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: think that might have distracted him a little bit, but
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: he's been good again more recently. He's not quite as
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: good on the road though four point three to nine
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: ROADYRA This month, he's been fairly decent. Twenty five to
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio is definitely solid, but he
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: does have a four point nine to five ERA, although
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: it's mostly because he didn't do that well against Baltimore,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: not able to go five innings in that one. He
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: allowed six earned runs, but he kind of got a
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: little bit unlucky because he did still have a seven
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio there. He's not pitching
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: that deep into game, so he is pitching fairly effectively.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: I think he should do okay against Washington, and Washington
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: has never seen him before, so he has a little
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: bit of an extra advantage here because they have never
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: seen him. So I talk about that when the young
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: pitcher has never been seen before by the opposing hitters,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: the hitters could struggle to figure him out for a
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: little while. So I think Smith has an extra edge
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: as far as that's concerned. Washington is Brad Lord pitching,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: who is a converted relief pitcher who I can never
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: get a good gauge on decent numbers overall in the season,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: though four point one two ERA, one point two eight
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: whip a little bit high, but not awful. He is
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: not as good at home though, five point oh one
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: home ERA this month three point one three ERA pretty
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: good though in four outings nineteen to six strike out
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, So he is pitching pretty well right now,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: and he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: of those outings. So he is in pretty good form
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: right now, facing a week a weak White Sox lineup,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and the White Sockx have never seen him before either,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: so he might actually do okay here the unfamiliarity aspect
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: of this with the White Sox having a bad lineup anyway,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: and they have to try to figure out Lord on
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: the fly so lord of the flies, Yeah, dude, If
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Lord gives up a lot of flyballs, he's Lord of
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the flies. Oh my god, does he? Does? He have
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: a high fly ball right now? I don't even know.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I've never really looked into his flyball versus groundball rate.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Let's see what it is on the season. Actually, no,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I think one of the reasons why he succeeds is
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: because he has a lot of ground balls, only slightly
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: more flyballs than ground balls, so he's not Lord of
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: the flies. But yeah, that being said, I think this
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: is an under in the first five innings as well,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Unlike what I said about the previous year games in
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: this series, the money he is agreeing with this one
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of tickets on the under, ninety eight
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: percent of cash on the under. Total is flip from
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the over to meet
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: juice to the under. That's the way I would lean
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: in the game first five only though, because I don't
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with those bullpens. And Washington is
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: getting some of the money even though they initially dropped
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: from minus one seventeen and minus one twelve, they got
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the cash fifty nine percent of
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: tickets on the White Sox though, So again just giving
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: you all the information there, but I my preference in
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: that game would be the first five under Detroit at
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: my bos in Red Sox. The Red Sox have not
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: decided on a starting pitcher here. The Red Sox don't
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot to play for it, like they
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: could just shift around as far as the as far
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: as the Wildcard Senior is concerned, but I think the
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Red Sox actually have an advantage if they lose this
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: game because if the Red Sox lose this game, they
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: avoid the Yankees in Toronto, I believe for the most part.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: So I'm well, actually, I think it depends on what
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Cleveland does. So I think if the Red Sox win
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: this game, though they're guaranteed to have to face either
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: the Yankees or Toronto, they have to face whichever team
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: wins the division. Red Sox are gonna go on the
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: road either way, but I think that's gonna be a
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: more difficult assignment to do that. Even though I know
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have done well against the Yankees this year,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: but I think they'd rather face Cleveland than those teams.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is so obviously the worst team it's gonna be
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: in the playoff field. Man, even though I know they're
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: playing really well right now, they're hot at the right time,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: But man, I think they'd probably rather play Cleveland. But
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: that'll that will happen if the Red Sox lose this
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: game and Cleveland wins to win their division, Because if
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox lose, that means Detroit has a chance
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: to win the division, so Cleveland would have to win
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: for that to happen. Otherwise, I believe if Cleveland also,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I believe if Cleveland also loses, then I don't know.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: I think some shift happens with the Red Sox actually
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: still wind up having to face the winner of the
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Al East instead. So I think the Red Sox there's
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: no scenario where they played Detroit in the first round.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I believe that's correct. I don't know. I'm trying to
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: get it all straight in my head, but I think
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: it is actually advantageous for the Red Sox to lose
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: this game. But I mean, this is a professional sport,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: man like, these guys are not going to go out
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: there just too intentionally lose. But it might mean the
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Red Sox don't have a whole lot of focus on
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: trying to win this game. At the very least Detroit
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: still does because they could still win the division. Man.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpens, the Red Sox have the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: better of the two bullpens and they have the better offense.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox have a somewhat rested bullpen after yesterday.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: They use a lot of guys on Friday, but rested
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: most of their guys yesterday. Detroit used more of their
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: guys yesterday, So the Red Sox do have a bullpen
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: edge and a and a hitting edge here. But it
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: looks like the Red Sox might potentially be going with
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: a bullpen game here because I mean, this is the
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: last game of the season, man, so it's kind of
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: just like all hands on deck. A though you don't
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: really want to waste your arms before the playoffs, but
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I think you have a couple of days off before
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the playoffs starts, so I think that's okay. Detroit is
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: going with Chris Paddock, and I mean, is he really
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the guy that you want when your division is on
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the line. I don't know. I mean, Detroit, they at
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: least know they're gonna make the playoffs, but it would
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: definitely be a huge disappointment if they wind up been
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: a wild card spot. Paddock has not been very good
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: though this season, between playing with Minnesota and Detroit. Five
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: point two seven ERA one point twenty five whip. The
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: whip is actually better than the ERA would suggest, though,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: so his ERA is worse than the whip would suggest,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: so I think his ERA should actually be a little
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: bit better than that. But he's still not very good
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: five point sixty six ERA on the road. That's not
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: good either. He's very home run prone on the road too.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: This past month, he hasn't been good at all. Seven
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: this month seven point eight two ERA, ten to one
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio solid, but he's just getting lit up.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: He's given up four home runs. Yeah, I mean, I
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: guess he's gotten a little bit unlucky though, given that
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: his command numbers are pretty good this month, but he
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: tends to give up a lot of hard contact. Man,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and since he's been with Detroit, he's been bad. He
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: had one good start with them against Arizona and then
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: he was just pretty much awful since then had a
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: six point three eighty RA with them in August against
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: the Boston Red Sox. He is actually good against them
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: though in thirty that's why they're rolling them out there
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: on thirty seven at bats. He has a fourteen to
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: one strike out walk ratio against them two sixteen average
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: a lot in five oh seven ops, so Paddock might
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: actually be able to do well in this game. It
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: looks like the line in this one. We don't even
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: have a line on this game at all yet, so
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: it's very hard to determine what you really want to
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: do with this game. As the stands right now, I
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: actually think you should probably lean to Detroit just because
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: of the motivational aspect of it, and maybe first five
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: innings if you don't want to deal with the bullpens.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: But if the Red Socks are going to go with
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: a bullpen game or some scenario where the bullpen's going
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: to be into the game early, I think a full
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: game plan on Detroit might make sense, and you might
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: get them as an underdog. So maybe that makes sense
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: there in Minnesota at Philadelphia. I still don't know if
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia can potentially take take over the one seed in
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the National League or not, so that's kind of the question.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: They did get shut out yesterday five to nothing, though,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: so Philadelphia might just show up a little bit focused
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: just because of that. Potentially it is Minnesota's last game
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: of the season, though they do get to face Philadelphia,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: so I think there is some motivation for these teams
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: that know they're not going to the playoffs. It's kind
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: of like you could say the same thing in the
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: last NFL week, you want to tend to you want
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: to kind of look towards teams that are not going
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs because it's their last game, so
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: they kind of have a reason to just show up
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: and go all out. Whereas the teams that are going
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs, especially if they have nothing to
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: really play for and they're already settled into where they're
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: going to be in the playoffs, that team definitely has
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: a tendency to lack in motivation a little bit. So
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's gonna be the case of
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia here or not. But with baseball, I worry about
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: it a little bit more because I have to take
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: into account the pitching matchup, and then you have to
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: kind of deal with is that specific pitcher going to
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: be motivated? And I still have to rely on like
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: what the pitching matchup kind of tells me. So it's
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit difficult in baseball, Like just to go
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: purely situational in baseball, I can't bring myself to do it.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: I'm too autistic. Philadelphia doesn't have a very good bullpen.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: They use three of their relief pitchers this and in
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's is worse though, uh and they only use two yesterday.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: But Minnesota's got the worst of the two bullpens. Philadelphia
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: has a way better offense Simeon Wood's. Richardson is pitching
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: from Minnesota. Not great numbers for him, four point two
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: seven ERA not terrible, one point three to four whip
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: is not good though, and he's bad on the road
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: five point eight to nine roadyra this month. He does
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: have a three ERA though, on a twenty seven to
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk ratio, so he's actually pitched pretty
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: well this month. A strikeout rate actually went up. He's
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: allowed three or fewer earned runs in all of his
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: outings this month, so he is actually pitching a little
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: bit better as of now. And he's been good against
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Philly in a very small sample size, so it might
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: have been just because they didn't know what to expect
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: out of him. But they only have one hit off him.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: They're one for fifteen, often with Stott with the only
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: hit a single, four strikeouts, two walks, sixty seven average
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: is what that is two forty three ops. So Woods
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Richardson actually has done well against Philly in the past.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Christopher Sanchez though, and if Sanchez
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: shows up, I mean, I think these starting pitchers when
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: they show up they're not just gonna like intentionally lose,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: although they might be unfocused a little bit depending on
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: the situation. But it's really it's a lot easier to
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: gauge of teams like lack or you know, well not
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: really to gauge of teams like lack of focus or
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: like how much focus they will have, how much focus
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: they will or will not have. It's easier to gauge
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: that at the level of the team, you know what
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, because it's kind of like you got to
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: play as a team, so chemistry gets involved in whatever.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: It's a lot harder to gauge an individual pitcher using
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: the same type of situational methods, you know what I mean,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: because you don't know what's in the in the one
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: guy's head, like overall, you kind of gauge what's in
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: the team's head. Is that gonna be what the pitcher thinks?
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Sanchez had a really good season though,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: two point five to seven ERA one point eight whip. Yeah,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, not a whole lot to look at here,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: and he's just been really really good. He's still good
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: this month. He's a lot of one or fewer earned
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: run in or earned runs in four of his last
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: five outings. The only one where he didn't was against
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, and he still wasn't even that bad in
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: that outing. Two era this month, twenty three to three
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio Minnesota only as two hitters have ever
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: seen him before. Vazquez has the only hit a single.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: They're one for five, often with no strikeouts, no walks,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: so he is unfamiliar to them too. So this game,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna say under in the first five innings.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Yet again in this one, the money agrees with it. It
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: looks like fifty five percent of tickets on the under,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of the cash on the under. Total
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: is sitting at eight and a half juice the under,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: the little bit less juice on the under right now,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: But I think the under first five again excluding the bullpenz,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: is the way to go. Philadelphia is a very public
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: fairly big favorite, So not something I would really want
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: to get involved in there as far as the side
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: is concerned, and you really got to look into whether
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: or not Philly can actually get the one seat or not,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: because I'm not sure Colorado at the Giant it's the
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Giants are on the verge of a sweep here. Maybe
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: that will motivate Colorado a little bit, because Colorado has
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: had a really bad season, like a historically bad season.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: So Colorado especially might actually show up with motivation for
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the last game of the season. I don't know if
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: San Francisco will because San Francisco started out the season
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: hot and thinking they were going to make the playoffs
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: and now they're not. But San Francisco does have the
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: way better bullpen here. They used four relief pitchers yesterday though,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Colorado on these two, but they still have the better bullpen.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: They have a better offense too. Colorado's just they're just
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: that bad man. Colorado's going with mccaid brown, young pitcher here,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: seven point five four ERA, one point eight to one whip.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I know his numbers are really bad. He is better
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: on the road though, four point eight five road ERA,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: so he's actually okay on the road, or he gets
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: kind of bombed in course field. It's all a very
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: small sample size, though, but he has been significantly better
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: on the road at least. Colorado's lost all six of
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: his starts so far, but he's allowed three or fewer
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: runs in four of his last five outings which you
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really expect, and his last outing, he actually was
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: really good at Seattle. Seattle's a good offense, although I
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: know that's a pitcher friendly park, but he went five innings,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: didn't allow any or allowed one ear and run, had
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: ten strikeouts and two walks. That was the best start
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: that he's made so far. Man, So he might be
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: trending in the right direction, so it is possibly pitches
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: well in this game. It looks like he does have
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: decent stuff, and the Giants have never seen him before,
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: so he does have an unfamiliarity edge there too, with
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the hitters have to try to figure him out. So
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Brown doesn't look like that bad of a potentially not
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: that bad of a look in this game. But San
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Francisco is going with Logan Webb to finish the season here.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: He's had another good season three point three ERA, one
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: point two to five whip. He's a little bit better
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: at home as well. Three point twenty five ERA. How
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: motivated is he gonna be as far as you know, Like,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know if the team is gonna be necessarily motivated.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: He might be, because again he's just one guy. This month,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: he's been slow, lightly worse than when he's done on
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: the season, four point one eighty ra a twenty nine
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: to nine strike at walk ratio is still pretty good though,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: so he's he hasn't really gone totally out of form
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. He's facing a bad Rocky lineup here.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Eighty eightit bats against WEB for them twenty to three
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio to twenty seven average allowed five
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: forty eight oh ps. So WEB has done well against
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: them in the past, So in this game probably I'm
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: gonna lean towards an under in this game too. In
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: this one, maybe I would actually say full game, because
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: you have two pretty weak offenses. You're getting the key
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: numbers seven and a half here still, though, it's being
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: juiced to the under now, so if you want it,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: you probably have to get it before it hits seven.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: I'd rather get the seven and a half obviously, and
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: get that hook there. Eighty six percent tickets, ninety six
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: percent of cash on the over. I know Colorado's bullpen
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: is bad, although at least they are rested here in
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: San Francisco's offense is not great. If you want to
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: go under in the first five, I think that makes
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: sense as well, it's just you're probably gonna have to
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: get about a three and a half on that, you know,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I don't really love that number necessarily. The over is
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: public though, as I said, it looks like there's money
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over as well, but I don't
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: agree with that. I agree with the move towards the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to the under. San Francisco is
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: a huge favorite minus two eighty five, which, by the
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: way of Philadelphia was like minus two twenty. I think, yeah,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to touch either one of these sides
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: at all. They're both really public too. Kansas City at
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: the A's we lost that one yesterday. Unfortunately they've split
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: the two games of this series. Now, these teams just
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch here. Of course, Kansas City has
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. The A's have the better offense. I mean,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: it's sort of pitching versus offense when you look at
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: these two teams here. Both teams have similar bullpen usage
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: after yesterday too, so Kansas City has a better bullpen.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Kansas City has a better starter on the hill too,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: with Cole Reagan's who came back when it was too
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: late man. Unfortunately for Kansas City, because he is basically
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: their ace, and you wouldn't really realize it based on
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: his numbers this year. He just hasn't pitched that much
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: this year. He was injured most of the year. Five
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: point two ERA and one point two to two whip
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: is not bad, though a little bit worse than the
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: road five point one to one ERA. How well is
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: he going to do in this A's stadium though I
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: don't know the temporary Triple A stadium they're in. It's
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: just awful. I don't know. But Reagan's since he came back,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: he made two starts. They kind of were ramping him
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: up a little bit. He hasn't thrown a lot of
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: pitches yet, but he did ramp himself up to five
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: innings last time out. He's allowed two hour runs in
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: each of those outings. He has a fourteen to three
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio over those outings. He got a
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: win for US last time out against Anaheim, so that
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: was good, and a four point one five VIRA over
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: that span. So he is coming back into form. It
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: looks like he is starting to pitch pretty well again,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: so I kind of expect that he will again here.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: The A's have not done well against him in the
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: past and thirty one at bats they have an OH
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: ninety seven average against him in four h five ohps
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: thirteen to six strike a walk ratio, so it is
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: too many walks, although three number line leers and he's
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: also over ten often, so I do think overall, Reagan
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: sets up to do okay in this game if he
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: could deal with the stadium. Brady Basso is pitching for
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: the A's here one point seven four ERA on the season,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: but at one point five to five whip is pretty ugly.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: He puts too many guys on base. I don't know
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: if it makes sense to really go into his matchup
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: numbers or whatever. Because he's a relief pitcher. It looks
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: like he's probably gonna go about one inning in this game.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: He'll be an opener basically, and then you're gonna get
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: an A's bullpen game, or maybe they'll bring in like
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: a follower for a few innings. So basically a bullpen
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: game for the A's doesn't seem like a good idea
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: to me with how bad the A's bullpen is. So
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, I think is the way to look in
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: this game, A's or public because the public likes offense
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of tickets, seventy six percent of the cash.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: It's this is crazy, A public a public home underdog man.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: When do you ever see that? Not often? Although it
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: looks like some of the cash is coming in on
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: them too. Kansas City down for minus one minus one
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: thirty eight here, But I would lean to Kansas City
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: in this one, even though the money looks like maybe
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: it's somewhat disagreeing with it. I'm kind of thinking because
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: I didn't see the percentages yet on this game before,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know, do we want to take a shot
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: with Kansas City in this one? I'm thinking about it.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, the A's really haven't been very good at
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: home in this stadium. Man, it's tempting. It is definitely tempting.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Let me take one more look at this. Am I
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: gonna add one more play on the fly here? You're
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of plays today if I do that.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Because NFL is an action let me see, Action Network
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: is showing money coming in in the A's, which just
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it doesn't totally make sense to me.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: I'll skip it. But I do like Kansas City in
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: that one. Tampa Toronto is gonna be the one play
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: that I have, so I'll skip that for now. It's
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: an interesting one, Uh, Houston at Anaheim. Now Houston's in
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: the dream crush or spot man, so that is something
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: that definitely can sitter here. Houston. They haven't been out
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs since twenty sixteen, so this is gonna
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: be probably a very deflated spot for Houston. I don't
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: really expect him to show up here after they were,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: you know, leading the division basically all season. They've been
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs every year for the last decade almost,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, with one day to go,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: they get knocked out of the playoffs. I think it's
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for them, men, I really do. Situationally,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: the problem is they're facing Anaheim, so what do we
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: want to do with this one? Houston used three relief pitchers, yes, say,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Anaheim only used one. So Aneim's bullpen is in better
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: shape right now. Tho they're bullpen is the worst of
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the two. There's no question about that. Houston still does
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: have the better offense, but again, it might be a
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: situation where they just don't show up. Lance mccullor is
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: this pitching for Houston. He had a man, he just
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: had a bad season. He tried to come back from injury.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: I think he had Tommy John surgery. His home fans
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: are just getting all over his ass for not pitching well,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: threatening his life. I mean, it's just not cool. Man.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: So I was rooting for him to do better and
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: it just didn't really happen. He's been a staple of
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: the rotation for such a long time, man, but his
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: numbers are just not good this year six point seven
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: to one ERA, one point eighty five whip. However, his
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: bad starts basically all came at home. He's been much
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: better on the road, and that's where he is here
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: two point five for ERA, So he might actually want
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: to show up and do something. Year. He hasn't pitched
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: at September eleventh, hasn't made really anything close to a
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: full start since like August, basically late to August, so
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: he might actually show up with some motivation here. Man.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: He hasn't given up an earned run this month, and
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: two outings against Texas at Toronto, both on the road,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: by the way, although the fielding failed him and allowed
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: three on runs over that span. He didn't strike anybody out.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. It's like he's not exactly a
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: good form right now against An. I'm you know what,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: we might fade Houston here against an I'm his numbers
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: are not that good and eighty at twenty six to
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: fifteen strike at walk race show. That's a lot of
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: walks two fifty averages low, but eight fifty oh ps
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: is pretty high. It is mostly because Trout really does
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of damage against him, but with a few
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: home runs in there. But still, I don't know, man,
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: The problem is, I just don't think you can take
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Anaheim here either, because they got sam Aldajeri on the
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: mound here who's young. Like he might get better at
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: some point, man, But his numbers have been awful this
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: year so far. He pitched last year a little bit too,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: and he was not good this year. Eight era two
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: point two two whip. I mean, that is just really bad.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: He's been really bad at home ten point eight era
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: at home. I know he's only made three appearances so far,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't been able to do well really against anybody,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: including Texas and Kansas City at home, really struggling to
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: bolt those outings. He has a seven to seven strike
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio. So I don't think you could play
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: on al Dejeri Man. Houston actually saw him last year,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: I guess. And they're three for five offen with four
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: walks and no strikeouts, so that's not good either. So
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: even though Houston they're in a very very deflated spot
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: here situation, I think it does make sense to fade them.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I just don't. I just don't think you can put
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: your money on al dea Jeri Man uh sixty. Anheim's
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: bullpen sucks too, although at least it's rested sixty five
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: percent tickets only fifty five percent of the cash on
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Houston though they've dropped for minus on to minus one nineteen,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: so the money is agreeing with the fate of Houston here.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: I would very hesitantly agree with it, And if I
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: was gonna play this game, I would go with Anaheim
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: full game on the money line. But Man, it's just yeah,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you're doing that, you're doing it because
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: of the It's all because of the situation. It's all
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: because you expect Houston to be deflated Mets at Miami.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: The Mets need to win, Man, because if the Mets lose,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: that's done. That's it. They're out of it. It doesn't
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: even matter what Cincinnati does, which part of I think
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why all the games are
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: being played at the same time, so you don't have like,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: you know, you're own. It doesn't do something first, like
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the opponent of the team that you're you know, fighting
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: with for the last spot or whatever. You're playing at
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: the same time, so you don't see, oh, that team
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: just wan or whatever. So now we're fucked and we're
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: not gonna show up anymore. So that's not gonna happen.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: So the Mets will show up. They need to win
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: this game, but that means there might be too much
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: pressure on the Mets in this game. Miami's got no
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: pressure here. If they did lose five to nothing yesterday,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: the teams have split the two games of the series.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: Miami might show up because it is their final game
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: of the season and they do get to host the Mets,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: and they get to spoil the Mets season. Like if
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: the Mets lose, they're out of it regardless of what
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati does. So Miami has a chance to do that
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: to the Mets. However, just like what we say in football,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: the team that controls their own destiny actually tends to
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: have more pressure on them, which is gonna be Cincinnati here,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: because it's like, basically, you're in a situation where it's
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: win and you're in. The Mets are not in that situation. Like, yes,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: the Mets need to win, but they also need help.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: They need the Mets need to win and Cincinnati needs
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: to lose. So the Mets have a little bit of
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: pressure off of them because a lot of it is
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: just out of their control. So they can kind of
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: just show up and play a little bit looser, you
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, Like, yes, we need to win,
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: but even if we win, we're not guaranteed to be
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: in right, so it kind of takes the pressure off you,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: like mentally a little bit. Mets are the better team, obviously,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: they have the better offense. They do have the better
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: bullpend as well. I think used three relief pitchers yesterday
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: and Miami used four. Miami's is a little bit more
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: used right now too, so the Mets do have a
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: little bit of a bullpen edge here. Sean and I
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Mets. He hasn't been that good though.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: He had a shortened season, came back from injury five
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: point eight er. Not good though at one point too
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: two whip kind of indicates his ERA should be better
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: than that though, So he might be pitching a little
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: bit better than his RA would suggest. But he has
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: not been good on the road. Seven point ho nine
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: road era. He's been struggling man on the road this
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: month seven point six' FOUR, era despite having a nineteen
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk. Ratio so a lot of
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: times With MANAI i always point this out throughout his,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: career his problem has been, walks and that is not
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the case. Here, LIKE i don't know what's going on with, him,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: man but his command numbers have been quite. Good he's
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: just getting hit. For he's just getting hit. Hard he's
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: given up more hits than it he's pitched. Here he's
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: given up seven home runs this. Month he's just getting
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: lit up by the. Bats, SO i don't. Know there's
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: something wrong With manaiah right. Now he's too. Hittable his
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: stuff is just not fooling guys at this. POINT i,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: guess even though well to some extent it is because
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: he's striking guys, out but he's probably just putting too
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: many pitches over the. Plate miami is surprisingly only has
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: fourteen at bats against. Him, ever three hitters of face
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: him before they've done, well though they have a four
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: to twenty nine average against him in ONE thy thirty
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: eight ops two to one strike a walk, ratio So
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: mania little bit questionable coming into This one man bad
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: home road. Splits his numbers Against miami not good in
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: the limited sample, size although a lot Of miami's bats
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: are unfamiliar with, him so maybe he does have an
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: advantage against those. Guys he is going up Against Edward,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: cabrera who's had a better season out of the two
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: pitchers From miami here three point six SIX, era one
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: point two to. Whip he's been. Solid he's been good
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: at home, too so he has the edge of the
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: home road splits Over sean And iah quite significantly a
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: two point nine to ONE era at. Home he has
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: not been good, recently. Though he's allowed three or more
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: on runs in four of his last five. Outings he
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: failed to make it even through the fifth inning in
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: three of his last four, outings including one against The
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: mets On august. Thirtieth at The, mets he got, obliterated
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: give up five and runs and four innings in that.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: One did have four strike ups in one, walk so
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: his command was, alright but give up a lot of,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: hits give up three home, runs so he's not really
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. Either he followed that up
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: not doing well At philadelphia, either three and runs and
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: four innings in that. One still good command numbers, though
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: good strike up walk, ratio but overall against The, mets
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: he does not do that. Well in ninety four. Bets
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: he has a really bad nineteen to twenty strike out walk.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Ratio that is an unbelievable amount of. Walks cabrera throughout his,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: career the walks have kind of been the issue with,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: him although he's gotten that under control of. This so
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: you have to kind of take these numbers with a
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of a grain of salt to some, extent
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: because a lot of it is in the past when
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: he was more walk prone than he is. Now but
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: we did just see that he did bad against The
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: mets two starts ago or, whatever so that's still not
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: a good. Sign they have a two fifty five average
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: off which is in that, high but an eight eighty six.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Ops they got seven home runs off, him three From,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: alonzo so The mets do hit him, Well so this, game, Man,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: yeah what do we want to do with this? GAME
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: i don't, Know, Man we'll see what the what is
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: the price on This the money is coming in of The.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Mets people know they need to win their favorite on
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: the road. HERE i think The mets are better than
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: their record would indicate. Though, man so AGAIN i, said
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: if they actually managed to make the, PLAYOFFS i think
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be. Dangerous they're up for minus one to
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: fifteen to minus one twenty eight, here, uh sixty three
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: percent of. Tickets it's seventy four percent of the cash on.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Them so the money is coming in of The. Mets
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: money also kind of on the, over AND i think
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: that's probably the WAY i was actually lean in this.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: GAME i don't really trust The, bullpens. DON'T i don't
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: THINK i really trust either, starter SO i think it
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: over actually does make sense in this. Game eighty seven
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets are eighty eight percent now in the,
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: over but ninety eight percent of the. CASH i don't
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: know if that's, accurate but the numbers just kind of
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: sitting there so at eight so it's a reasonable total
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: there for that ONE i think that's the WAY i
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: would Look texas At. Cleveland cleveland might take a little
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: bit of a step back here because they know they're
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs, now though they're still fighting for the.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Division BUT i think Because cleveland didn't even expect to
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs at, all they just came from out of.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Nowhere the fact that they got into the, playoffs they
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: probably celebrated. Yesterday SO i think That cleveland might have
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a setback here, man in my,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: opinion even though, yeah they're trying to fight for the.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Division If cleveland wins the win the, division so that's
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: also the, case they have the tiebreaker, here so they
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: would need to lose The detroit would need to win
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: for them to lose the. Division So, CLEVELAND i, mean
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: they don't really have a whole lot of pressure on them,
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: here again because they weren't even expected to be here at,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: all so that that's actually a good. Thing they don't
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: have pressure on. Them BUT i think because they did clinch,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: yesterday they might have over celebrated a little. Bit so
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: a couple of kind of conflicting situational factors. Here texas
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: just playing out the, STRETCH i, Mean texas doesn't really
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: have the possibility of spoiling cleveland season, anymore but it
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: is texas last game of the, season so they might
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: want to show up and play well just because it
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: is the last game of the. Season both bullpens are.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Good cleveland's is slightly, Better cleveland is slightly less used right.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Now both use the same amount of pitchers, yesterday but
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: over the last few Days texas used a little bit
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: more of their, BULLPEN i, think So cleveland's is a
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: little bit more. Rested slight bullpen edge. There both offenses.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Suck texas's offense actually is a slightly better one and
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: they're at least less bad on the, road So texas
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: does have a slight offensive. Edge looking at the starting,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: pitching it does look Like cleveland is a better starting.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Pitcher And Patrick KORbin bitching for The, rangers he's kind
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: of falling apart after he was good at the beginning
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: of the, season but looking at his numbers over the
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: last few, years you know he is not that. Good
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: he's got a four point three FOUR era one point
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: three to six. Whip that's not. Good that whip is
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: way too. High he's significantly worse on the road as.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: Well five point three to one ROAD. Era that isn't.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Good this, month he's been. Okay four point four to THREE,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: era seventeen to six strike a walk. Ratio it's not.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Awful he's, been you, know kind of getting. Through he's
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer on runs in his last four.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: Outings but he's not going deep into these. Games. Man
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: the last time he went more than five innings or
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: went he went five innings at all was back On september,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Seventh so he's not pitching that well right. Now Against,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: cleveland he has been, good, THOUGH i, mean they have
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: a really weak. Offense forty five at, bats eleven to
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk. Ratio it's not a good walk
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: right allough three of them are from. Hedges he's held
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: him to a one seventy eight average and five oh four.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Ops So corman has done, well specifically Against. Cleveland he's
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: going up Against Logan allen. Here Logan allen has actually
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: been pitching well. Recently his numbers on the season and
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: are not. Good four point one FOUR era is not that,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: bad excuse, me but one point three to nine whip
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: is pretty. Bad he is a little bit better at
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: home though three point nine TWO ern this, month he
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: has a TWO era and a thirteen to three strike
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: a walk, raceio and he's allowed three or four earned
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: runs in all of his. Outings so he is pitching
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: well right. Now he's in good. Form better for him
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Than corbin. Is his numbers Against texas are actually not good.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: Though in forty one at bats seven to three strike
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: a walk, ratio two sixty eight average allowed doesn't seem that,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: bad but nine twenty eight ops So texas has hit him.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Around they have four home runs off him for four different.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Hitters SO i don't really Trust alan in this, matchup,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Man SO i THINK i THINK i would lean To
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: texas in this. One the money is coming in that.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: Way you. Know i'm Kind i'm kind of tempted to do,
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: it but we're fanning the home road splits if we
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: want to do. It. Here cleveland's down for minus one
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: fifty six to minus one thirty. Six they're in a
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: bad spot because they just clinched the, division or excuse,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: me clinched off playoff. Spot seventy six percent of tickets On.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Cleveland the public's all Over cleveland, here sixty percent of
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: the cash On texas, Though but can we really can
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: we put money On Patrick? Korban can we do? It?
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: MAN i MEAN i don't, know, man the bullpens there's
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: not much of a difference between the two, Bullpends SO
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: i think keeping The bullpens in is fine if you.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Want texas is definitely more of a motivational. Spot let me,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Look i'm. TEMPTED i am really. Tempted, actually let me see,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: here because you do actually get the better matchup numbers,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: here and this is something THAT i do look. At
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: ooh boy handicapping on the. Fly i'm trying to figure
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: this one out. HERE i, Mean Action network is showing
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: the opposite as far as the books that they're. Tracking
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: but oh, no, Wait i'm looking to the wrong. Game my.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Mistake where the hell is this? Game? WHAT i don't?
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Know this up my? SCREEN i apologize, that, man THAT'S
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: i don't know what they're showing. Here. Yeah Action network's
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: not really showing that. Much, ACTUALLY i mean you know,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: what we're getting The rangers as an underdog here in this. One,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: wow it's. Tough should we do? It? Yeah let's do?
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: It fuck, It we'll go with The Texas rangers this. One,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: oh my, god you can get it into a plus
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: one twenty. SIX i think it was the PRICE i
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: just took on. Them let me see, here make sure
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: that real. QUICK i didn't want this to be a
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: totally long. Video they're almost through it. Here let me, See,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Oh texas plus one twenty. Two what looks like is
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: the best you can get on it right now somewhere
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: in that ballpark ha pun. Intended there we. Go do
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: It texas. AGAIN i Think, cleveland just because they didn't
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: even expect to be here at, all they probably celebrated
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: a lot last night with the fact that they, Clinched
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: so we will go with that. One, jordan what's up?
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Man thanks for coming back again. Again if you missed
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: MY nfl show last, night that's WHERE i really did
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: all THE nfl, analysis so that is. Available there's still
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: some time to watch, that although THE Nfl europe game
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: is already on right, Now cincinnati At. Milwaukee, milwaukee LIKE i,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: Said i'm not sure If milwaukee can potentially lose the
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: number one overall seed or not to The. Phillies i'm
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: not sure if they. Can But cincinnati's on the versions
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: potentially sweeping them, here and we know we know What
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: cincinnati has to play. For LIKE i, said if they,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: win they're. In it's as simple as. That if they,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: lose then they would also need The mets to. Lose
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: so that's the situation. Here but LIKE i, said AS
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: i just said that WHEN i was talking about The,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: mets when a, team when they're in a win in your,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: insignarion you control your own, destiny it's actually a worst
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: spot for that. Team so because it's like the pressure
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: is kind of on, them that kind of gets in your,
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: head like we need to win this game and that's,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: It like that's all we gotta do, win you know
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: WHAT i. Mean like the pressure is actually a little
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: bit more off of The mets because it's out of their,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: control a little bit out of their. Hands same thing
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: that we talk about at the end of THE nfl.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Season And cincinnati's not gonna have it easy in this pitching. Matchup.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Man milwaukee is not making it easy on, them which
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: might mean The milwaukee is still actually trying to make
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: sure they make the they get the one seed. Here
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: cincinnati And milwaukee probably kind of just is kind of
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: mad and just want To they probably want to avoid a.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Sweep cincinnati is the worst of the two. Bullpens these
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers, Yesterday milwaukee use. Three milwaukee's bullpen is
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: in the better shape coming into this. One milwaukee does
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. Too they're not quite as good at,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: home AND i do think they have the better starter.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Too cincinnati's going With brady's. Singer he's had a pretty
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: good season three point nine to FIVE, era one point
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: two to THREE, whip but he's not as good on
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: the road four point seven to four ROAD. Era this,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: month he has been good three point one to three E,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: ra eighteen to seven strike a walk ratio is. Okay
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: he did a lot of four runs last time out Against,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: pittsburgh which wasn't really that, good WHICH i. FORGET i
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: might have had an under in that. GAME i can't
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: remember IF i. Did it might have been one of
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: those games where the first five under lost and then
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: the full game under, one AND i gave out the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: first five and. Lost it was probably one of those bullshit.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: GAMES i don't, know, man but he's been okay this.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: Month not as good on the road. Though up Against,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: milwaukee his numbers are actually. Decent in ninety one at,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: bats twenty one to eight strike a walk ratio two
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: fifty three average allowed six ninety eight. Ohps So singer
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: might be able to do okay in this, one but
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: he's going up Against Freddy peralta and he is still
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: The brewers ace. Man he's had a really good season
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: two point six eighty R a one point zero seven. Whip,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: yeah this means that The brewers are not going to
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Use paralta in the first game of the. Playoffs they'll
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: use him a few games into the, playoffs but that's
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: what they're gonna. Do they want to get they want
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: to win this. Game Apparently paralta has been really good
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: at home one point seven to ONE era this. Month
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: he's been good as, well three point four to three E,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: ra thirty three to eight strike at walk. RATIO i
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: had one start where he kind of just gave up
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: some timely hitting To texas and allowed five earn runs.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: There but he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in every,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: one every other one one of his outings going all
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: the way back through the beginning Of. August so he's
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: been really. Good and he HAD i think four shutouts
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: over that span two actually. FIVE i think he had
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: five in A row until That texas, game and he
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: did bounce back from That texas game just. Fine brault
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: is definitely pitching well right. Now his numbers are decent Against,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: cincinnati but not. Dominant one hundred at. Bats he does
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: have a really good thirty six to nine strike a
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio against. Him two forty average allowed is pretty
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: low seven to thirty. Three oh p has a slightly,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: high kind of a lot of extra base hits against,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: him but he is still the better of these two.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: Pitchers so what do we do in this? Game? MAN i,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Mean i'm probably gonna give a slight lean Towards milwaukee
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: in this, one but the money's kind of coming in On.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati milwaukee's down for minus one forty two to minus
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: one thirty seventy one percent ticket seventy six percent of
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in On. Cincinnati so money is coming Into,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: cincinnati But cincinnati's public because everybody kind of Knows cincinnati
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: needs to. Win, man they can make the. Playoffs they
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: got to. WIN i, mean in a, way LIKE i,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: Said i'm kind of rooting for them BECAUSE i Like Terry.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: Francona The reds haven't been there for a. While The
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: METS i, mean The mets deserve, it probably just because
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: The mets are actually the better team if you look
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: into all the stats and. WHATEVER i would be kind
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: of ridiculous if The mets don't make the playoffs And cleveland.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: DOES i, mean that's just so. Insane but we're gonna
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: see what. Happened cincinnati is in a good position, here,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: man because they have the, tiebreaker so it's a pretty
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: good position for. Them BUT i PERSONALLY i lean To
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: milwaukee in this game a little. Bit the money is
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under as. Well for what it's,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: worth it's a low total down to seven and a
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: half juice to the, under sixty four percent of tickets
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: on the, over fifty eight percent of cash on the,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Under SO i guess more information for you. THERE i,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: MEAN i don't really have that much of an opinion
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: on the total in that one of a paralta, DEFINITELY i,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: mean playing unders in a paralta game is usually not
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: a bad thing at. Least thanks, man thanks for checking it.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Out THAT nfl show is probably better than this, show
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: to be, honest there's not a whole lot going on
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: here last day of the baseball, season BUT i like
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: MY wnba play for today. Too for, TONIGHT i should
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Say arizona At San. DIEGO i kind of WISH i
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: gave Out San diego as a play yesterday Because arizona
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: was in the dream crusher scenario, man and just Generally
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Michael king is better Than Eduardo, rodriguez and that was
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: the pitching matchup. There it's Just San diego doesn't really
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: have that much motivation right now. Either But arizona got
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: eliminated from the playoffs two days, ago so they were
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: in the dream crusher spot. Yesterday so now it depends
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: like will that hang them over again into this game
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: or are they gonna try to finish the season on
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: a winning note after they've lost four games in a.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Row that is the, Question like how disappointed Is arizona?
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: Gonna BECAUSE i don't think they thought they were gonna
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs because they were just Like. Cleveland they
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: sold off of the trade deadline and then they started
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: playing well and then it was all of a sudden,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: like holy, crap we could potentially make the playoffs. Here
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: BUT i don't know if that was really something they
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: really thought was gonna. Happen so we'll see if they
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: show up for this game or. NOT i think they
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: have a starting pitching matchup that is somewhat in their
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: favor at the very. Least so though we Know San
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: diego has the better, bullpen that's not in. Question arizona
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: is the better offense of the. Two San diego did
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: use five relief pitchers, yesterday Though arizona only used, two
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: so that kind of brings the bullpens closer together at
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: the very. Least, Again San diego doesn't really have a
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: whole lot to play for. EITHER i think they are
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: locked into the five seed in THE. Nl they can't
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: win the division and they can't overtake The. Cubs Brandon
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: fott is pitching For. Arizona he's had kind of a
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: rough season man FIVE, era one point three to three.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: Whip he's been really bad on the, road seven point
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: two to NINETY ra on the, road which makes no
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: sense how he's that much better at home when it's
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark. There but whatever the case, is,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: AGAIN i don't know if there's something else going on, here,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: man if there's any anything illegal going on, There i'm
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: not really. Sure i've pointed that out With Ryan. NELSON i,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: mean there are some things that are strange About arizona's
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: pitching this. Year let's just put it that. Way this
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: month he's been good three point one SIX, era twenty
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: to four strike a, ratio but three of the fourth
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: starts were at home and the one bad start was
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: on the road against a bad line up In. Minnesota
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: SO i don't know if we can really trust fought.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Here his numbers are not that good Against San diego
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: on one hundred and thirty two at, bats twenty nine
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk, ratio two ninety five AVERAGE
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: a lot is definitely, high seven thirty seven ohps not terribly,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: high but not. Great they definitely hit him for. Contact at,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: least he's going up AGAINST Jp, sears Who San diego
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: got around the trade deadline from The, a's and he
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: has not really been very good For San. Diego last.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Year he actually wasn't that bad though for The a's
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: The yankees had traded him. AWAY i Think sears is
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: at least better than his numbers look right. Now five
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: point one to TWO, era one point three. Whip that's not. Good,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: obviously his homerra at five point two eight is a
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: little bit misleading because he was having to pitch in
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: that horrible stadium In. Sacramento but he hasn't been good
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Since San diego got him. Either he had a five
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: point five TWO era in three starts In. August this.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Month he wasn't good Against colorado at. Home that's not
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: a good. Sign and then a pitcher friendly park against
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: a weak offense like, that you give it four and
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: runs and four and a third innings did them an
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: eight to one Strang a walk ratio, though so that's not.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: Bad so he has a sixteen to four strike a
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: walk ratio since Joining San, diego so at least there's,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: That so that's one good. Thing this command numbers have
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: been pretty. Good he's facing a good line up here In, arizona,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: though And arizona's hit him in the past in thirty at.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: Bats six to one Strang a walk ratio is obviously
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: fine for, him but three thirty three, average eight fifty
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: five ops allowed not good numbers. There SO i don't
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: Think sears is really gonna do that well in this.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: One money's coming in on the, under which really kind
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: of surprises. ME i would actually lean to an over
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: in this. GAME i don't think either starting pitcher is
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: really gonna like it seems like both starting pitchers could
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: potentially do pretty. Poorly here we have a Bad arizona
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: bullpen against a kind of Use San diego. Bullpen sixty
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the tickets are on the over, though
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: and seventy three percent of cash on the, under so
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: the money is completely disagreeing with the the over. Here
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: San dieg down for minus one twenty six to one
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: to eighteen sixty, tickets eighty seven percent of the cash
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: coming in On. Arizona so the money is coming in
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: In arizona thinking they will actually show up for this.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: Game and maybe it's because fot just overall has the
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: better numbers. Overseers, generally he probably is the better, pitcher
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: the more talented, pitcher but in this, Spot i'm not
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: so sure about. That dodgers At, seattle they're both making the,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: playoffs they both clinched their, division so there's not a
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: whole lot to play for in this series, either Except
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: seattle is on the verge of getting, swept so maybe
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: they will show up for this final game at home
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: before we go into the. Playoffs dodgers have the worst
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: of the two, bullpens but actually and they use a
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: lot of their. Bullpen yesterday they used five relief pitchers
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: At seattle ONLY us, one So seattle's bullpen is way
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: better shape coming into this. Game but then the bullpen
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: usage is also going to depend on how much these
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: teams care about winning as. Well FOR, la they Got
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: Clayton kershaw, pitching and this is gonna be his last
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: regular season start of his career because he announced his
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: retirement and he pitched, OKAY i guess kind of in
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: the in the final home game in front of his home.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: Crowd his team got him the win behind. Him they
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: might step up behind him in this game too because
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: they know it's his last start of the regular season
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: in his. Career but it is on the road for this,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: one SO i think maybe it was more of an
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: emotional thing in his last home start last time. Out
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: he's been okay this year three point five TWO era
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: one point two to three, whip BUT i think he
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: feels like he just doesn't have it, anymore so he's
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: packing it. In he's been okay on the road, too
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: even though a little bit worse than he has been
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: at home three point six ROAD. Era this, month he has,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: struggled SO i think that maybe why he's kind of
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: packing it in a little, bit even though The dodgers
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: were winning behind. Him man they won nine of his
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: last ten, outings but this month has a five point
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: six EIGHTY ir and a nineteen to thirteen strike a walk,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: ratio so that's pretty. Rough he's walking too many. Guys
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: he did actually make it looks like a relief appearance
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: four days, ago because his last home start was this
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: one against the where he only went four and a.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Third he walked four. Guys he threw too many pitches
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: ninety one held him to tour in. Runs it wasn't
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: the greatest start for, him but the team got the.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: Win he didn't get the win because he didn't go five.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Innings maybe they could have left him. IN i don't
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: know if they were winning at the, time if he
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: could have gotten a win or. Not but they let
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: him come in and relief At arizona a few days,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: ago so he got another inning under his belt. THERE i,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: mean he's a, veteran SO i don't think the fact
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: that he pitching inning and relief is really going to
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: affect him Against. Seattle, overall he does have really good
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: numbers in his career forty one at, bats fourteen to
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk, ratio one two average allowed in
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: three seventy seven oh. Ps he's pretty much dominated These seattle,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: hitters but that Was kershaw in the, past and this
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Is kershaw this season when he's, older so he might
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: not do as well here as those numbers might. Suggest
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: he's going up Against Bryce, miller who is the way younger.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: Pitcher But, miller he's had a bad. Season. Man it's
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: been plagued by. Injuries he's trying to come, BACK i
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: think From Tommy john. Surgery he got injured again during
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: the middle of the. Season he's been a lot better
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: than this in the, past SO i think at some
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: point he should kind of round back into form a little,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: bit and he's showing some signs of it. Recently but
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: his season numbers are bad five point five THREE, era
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: one point three to nine whip obviously not. Good he
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: is a little bit better at home five point four NINE.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Era seattle's pitchers are pretty much all better at home
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: this month is a four point nine to EIGHTY, ra
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: but a twenty two to five strike out walk ratio
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: does show that his form is kind of coming back.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: Here seattle has won five of his last six outings as,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: well so he is starting to pitch a little bit.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: Better he's not a lot more than four and runs
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: in any of his starts going all the way. Back, actually,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: actually since he's come back In, august he has not
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: a lot more than four and runs in any of his.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: Outings he's only done it one more time since the
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: end Of august, two so he is pitching a little
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: bit better. Here his numbers are not great against The,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: dodgers a small sample, size twenty five at, bats seven to,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio two forty, average a lot
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: eight on one ops, Allowed so not, horrible not. Great
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size as. Well both offenses are
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Here dodgers have the better of the two.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Offenses will they show up in this? GAME i mean
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: that is kind of the. QUESTION i don't exactly know
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: where is this? Game it should. Be one of THE
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: i heard is the inter league. Game the money's coming
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: in On. Seattle they flip from plus one hundred to
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: minus one thirteen fifty, tickets seventy nine percent of the
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: cash On. Seattle so, again do with that information what
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: you want, To but the money is coming in In
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: seattle and it's flipped them to the. Favorite, YEAH i,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: MEAN i. DON'T i don't know entirely the reason for,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: that other than the fact That kershaw just seems like
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: he's a little bit out of gas. Now So miller
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: is in the better form of the two right. Now
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: And seattle does have the more rested bullpend so that's
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: part of the handicap there as. Well so if you
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: do Go, seattle the full game play is what makes
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: sense in that. One pittsburgh At, atlanta And atlanta's lost
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: three games in a. Row man on the verge of
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: getting swept By pittsburgh at. HOME i, Mean atlanta might
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: show up just because of. That both these teams have
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: nothing left to play, for But atlanta might not want
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: to finish their season getting swept By. Pittsburgh atlanta is
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: still better than the record would. Suggest at least he
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: had three relief pitchers enter the game. Yesterday pittsburgh had
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: three as. WELL i Think pittsburgh has the better of
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: the two. Bullpens atlanta has the better offense as far
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: as the starting, pitching, Though it's gonna be difficult For
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: atlanta to win this. Game with this Matchup Johann ovieedo's
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: pitching for The. Pirates decent numbers this year three point
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: five to seven E, ram one point two To. Whip
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: he's been better on the road as, well three point
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: two to Six Roady. Ram i'm not sure that he's
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: really as good as his numbers look. Though he's got
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: a three point five to FOUR era this, month but
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: nineteen to twelve strike out walk. Ratio he's walked exactly
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: three guys now in five straight. Outings that's not really
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: gonna get it, done. Man so he's kind of getting
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit lucky here where he's been fairly, Unhittable
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: like you can't continue to walk that many guys and
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: get away with, it so that is a. Problem his
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good Against, atlanta though in twenty one
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: at bats they have no extra base, hits five to
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk ratio not very. Impressive, again too many,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: walks but two thirty eight average allowed five to seventy one.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: Ohps so oviaightoh has done pretty well Against atlanta for
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: the most. Part he's going up Against Charlie, morton who
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: will this be his last start of his? Career, MAN
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: i don't. KNOW i don't think there's been an announcement or.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: Anything he's forty one years. OLD i, mean he might
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: try to come back next, year but the season has
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: been weird for him and it was really bad at
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the season With. Baltimore baltimore put him
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: in the, bullpen then they brought him back to the starting.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Rotation he was actually really good for a. While Then
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: detroit picked him up as one of their trade deadline.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: Targets there he pitched well For detroit for a little.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: While THEN i Guess detroit wound up getting rid of
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: him because he fell. Apart detroit doesn't want him for
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: the playoff. Run morton had a six point two eight
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: homie ira this, year but his home has not been
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: The braves this season. Yet and by the, way The
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: braves is where that's where he was last. Year so
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: he has returned to The braves where he was last.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: Year and his last start that he made With detroit
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: was against The, braves which was At, detroit and he
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: gave him six earned runs and Then detroit was, like,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: here go to the other side. Now, Yeah so he
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: had a really bad start. There he's been really bad this.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: Month twelve point seven five, era eleven to thirteen strike
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: a walk. Ratio but he might actually show up because
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: he's back with The. Braves he's used to pitching. Here
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: maybe he'll be happy about being back With. ATLANTA i don't,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: know maybe he liked pitching. THERE i, MEAN i don't
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: know how happy he's gonna be with the fact that
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: he's no longer on a playoff team In, detroit Because
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: detroit is gonna make the. Playoffs he has, good well
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: okay numbers Against pittsburgh and forty one at. Bats they
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: haven't been him for, contact but they haven't him for
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: power sixteen to six streke a walk, ratio one ninety
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: five batting, average seven eighty six ops, allowed so he's
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: allowed a pretty high ops to. Them three home, runs
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: two of them FROM. FAM i honestly don't know what
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: you're GONNA i get out Of morton. HERE i, MEAN
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: i probably would not trust him, though so this. GAME i,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: MEAN i would probably say an over in this game
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: is what makes the most sent over EIGHTH OVI eighto
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: And MORTON i would say probably. OVER i don't really
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: trust either bullpen or either start Or the total did
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: flip from seven and a half juice to the under
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: a seven a half juice the. Over that is a
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: ridiculously low total FOR i, MEAN i Guess atlanta pitcher
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: ish friendly, park but that's, insane like a seven and
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: a half with this pitching matchup At. ATLANTA i, MEAN
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: i guess it's taking into into account the offenses are
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: not that, good but, man that total seems. Low we
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: don't see the cash percentage on it yet or, whatever
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: but that's the WAY i would. Lean atlanta is down
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: for two to ten to minus one eighty nine on
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: the money, line seventy four percent of, ticket seventy nine
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: percent of the. CASH i don't, know, Man so probably
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: an over in that. One let's go to the best.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: Bets AND i already gave Out texas on the fly,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: here so we do Have texas Against. CLEVELAND i think
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: they might be in a little bit of a letdown
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: spot now that they made the. Playoffs so we do Have,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: texas even THOUGH i really don't want anything to do With,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: korb and this is one spot WHERE i Think i'm
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: okay with doing. It so we do Have texas on
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: the money line plus one twenty. Two my other play
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: really really bad as a Red sox, Fan But i'm
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: actually gonna Take Tampa bay And i'm gonna recommend splitting
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: this half on the run line and plus one and
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: a half runs at minus one thirty and half on
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: the money line at plus one sixty. Six and that,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: way if they cover the one and have run, line
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: you'll still win a small. Amount and this is a
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: way to kind of it's a way to kind of
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: diversify a little bit and like lower your risk a little.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: Bit and if you have multiple books that you can,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: use you can find a better you can find the
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: best number on both of those at different books. Potentially
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: BUT i think this sets up decently For Tampa bay
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: here Against, toronto, MAN i, mean the pressure is kind
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: of On toronto to try to maintain the lead in the.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: Division of, course if they, lose then The yankees would
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: still need to. Win toronto does have the, tiebreaker but
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: The yankees are pretty likely to win Against baltimore in my.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: Opinion we won't know because THESE i, mean these games
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: are all being played at the same. Time BUT i
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: Think toronto's just favored too heavily here. TOO i know
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: they have the better. Offense, obviously they're good at, home as.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: Well they're down for minus two hundred to minus one ninety,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: five seventy five percent tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: cash On, Toronto so the money looks like it's kind
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: of coming Into, toronto but they're very. Public nobody wants
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: anything to do With. Tampa and one other good thing
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: about playing a run line like this is the total
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: is pretty, low down to seven and a half, now
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: and the money's coming in on the under eighty seven
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: percent tickets on the over eighty nine percent of the
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: cash on the. Under so the under getting a ton
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: of money also means that if it's, uh it's expected
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: to be a lower scoring. Game and if that's the,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: case that means the underdog has a much much better
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: chance of hanging within this. Number AND i like it
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: based on what we see with the. Pitching. Man you,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: KNOW i weigh pitching over. HITTING i Know toronto has
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: the better the better hitting, here But Tampa bay this
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: is their last game of the. Season. Man LIKE i,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: Said toronto's already in the, playoffs but they of course
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: they want to win the. Division they want to have
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: that home field advantage in the first. Round But tampa's going. Nowhere,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: man this is their final game of the season and
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: they do have the chance to Knock toronto down a little,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: bit SO i Think Tampa bay is going to show
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: up for this. One they're also trying to avoid a,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: sweep so there is some motivation on The Tampa bay.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: Side as far as the, Bullpens tampa does have the
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: better of the two. Bullpens they use three relief pitchers,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: yesterday they have pretty light usage over the last few,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: days Whereas toronto has said much heavier. Usage So tampa
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: has an advantage of the bullpen as, well the better
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: bullpen and more rested bullpen coming into this. One so
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: if this is a close game coming into the, BULLPENS
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: i Think tampa does have an advantage, there AND i
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: actually like the starting pitching match up. Here Ian seymour's
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: pitching For. Tampa good numbers this year two point eight FIVE,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: era one point eight. WHIP i know he is a converted.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Reliever he's actually been better on the road to two
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: point sixty five roadyra fifteen to seven strike a walk.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: ISSUE i know that's not good this month two point
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: six to SIX era is. Good, YEAH i know he's
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: walking too many. GUYS i know he failed to go
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: five innings in two of his four. Outings he did
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: pitch really well Against toronto last. TIME i don't know
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: that Means toronto's recently familiar with, him but that's the
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: case with both of these. STARTERS i know it's gonna
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: matter a little bit more For toronto Because toronto had
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: probably never faced him, Before SO i do worry about
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: that a little. Bit Like seymour would have had that
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: edge where he was unfamiliar To toronto and he went
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: seven innings along no earned runs against, them three, strikeouts one,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: walk four, hits a lot back In Tampa bay and
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly. Park so his best start recently was
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: that one Against. Toronto, Yes toronto was unfamiliar with, him
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: and they won't be, here so that's a little bit
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: of an extra edge now To. Toronto but Maybe seymour
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: is just actually pitching well and maybe he matches up
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: well Against. Toronto so in that, start basically is where
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: these numbers come. From they have twenty one at bats against,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: him two to one strike out walk, ratio one to
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: ninety batting, average a lot of four to sixty five.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: OHPS i think you can Trust seymour. Here, man it's
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: actually easier to pitch in this, stadium at least than
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: it is to pitch in That Tampa Bay yankees spring training.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: Stadium they, play and he's going up Against Kevin, gaussman
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: And goussman looks like a guy you don't really want to.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: Fade AND i, mean you can see why the money's
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under because both starting pitchers look
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Here But, Goussman i'm gonna dial it back
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit with him. HERE i THINK i honestly
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: Think toronto should have just skipped him and moved him
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: to be the first pitcher uh to start for them
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: in the. PLAYOFFS i know he's really good this season
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: three point four to SEVEN era one point zero three,
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: whip although oddly his record is below five, hundred so
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: he doesn't get a lot of run. Supports that's something
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: to keep in mind. Too it's just it's kind of
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: a weird phenomenon where different pictures run support kind of
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: remains like the same throughout the, season where it's like
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: it's kind of like this mental thing where, oh we
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: have our really good picture on the mouse that we
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: don't need to hit. Today you know, WHAT i, mean
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a weird. Thing gousman is actually a
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home three point six TWO, era
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: so we have the home road splits working in our favor.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: HERE i know he's been good this month one point
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: eight EIGHT, era twenty seven to. Five strang a walk.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: Race you're better then Uh seymour has. Been but he
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: did a lot of four and runs last time out
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: against The Red, sox so he took a little bit
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: of a step back. THERE i. Know he just went
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: To tampa and in that start he did. Well he
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: allowed one on and run in six, innings six, strikeouts
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: two walks in a hitter friendly. PARK i get. It
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: but even despite that good start Against, tampa which doesn't
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: Mean tampa is recently familiar with him as, well he's
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: been really bad Against tampa in the past and fifty
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: seven at, bats even including that good start last time,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: out nineteen to three strike out walk ratio is, good
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: but he's allowed a three thirty three average and nine
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: to ninety eight ohps to, them so that's not. Good
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: so typically This tampa, offense when they show, up they
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: can hit. Him so we're gonna go With tampa and this.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: One we're gonna expect it to be a little scoring.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: Game even If gousman is pitching all right early in the,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: Game seymour might be able to hold the game. Close
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: and if it's close when we get into the, BULLPENS
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: i Think tampa does have the advantage at that. Point
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna do. That we're gonna split half run
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: line half money, line and that's. It that's gonna do. It,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: Man so baseball plays one more time Our Texas rangers
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty two on the money. Line, there split
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: bet half on the run, line half of the money
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: line With Tampa. Bay and then we HAVE. Nfl or
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: actually we HAVE. Wnba Remember minnesota plus five and a.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: Half man too many plays, today and THEN nfl we
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: Have giants plus six and a. HALF i don't know
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: if we'll get the, seven but be on the lookout
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: at least because you don't really have to play it.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: Immediately if you think you might be able to find the.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: Seven New england minus five and a, Half atlanta minus
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: one and a, half And indianapolis plus three and a,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: half that's gonna do. It let's get some wins. Today,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: Mail let's keep this wind streak. Going it's been good,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: recently we've been. Hot thanks everybody for hanging, out OR
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: i guess Just jordan has been the only one actually
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: hanging out of the, chat but thanks. Man learn a
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: tone On, twitter learn to tone On. Instagram better off,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: dad of, course like subscribe to the channel here on,
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: YouTube give me a good review On iTunes And. Spotify
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: that helps out. Too listen over, there that helps as.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: Well covered in Yuke MY yuk channel on. YouTube ukulele
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: covers going on over. There that's on, YouTube and Then
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: patreon dot com sash learn to toad with some bonus
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: yuke stuff going on. There it's gonna do it for.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Now have a good one, today. Man, peace