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Peace Talks and the Tech Reset · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , everyone !
• 0:02
  This is your host , Barnaby Bullseye , and it is exactly 6 am on Wednesday , March 25th , 2026 , out here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:11
  I have got my coffee in hand and my charts on the screen , so let us get into what is shaking the markets today on Spy Trader .
• 0:18
  It has been a wild few weeks , friends .
• 0:21
  The S&P 500 actually dropped below its 200day moving average recently .
• 0:28
  That has not happened in over 200 sessions , so it definitely gave investors a bit of a scare .
• 0:33
  But there is a silver lining this morning !
• 0:36
  We are seeing a sharp morning rally .
• 0:38
  The big news driving this is a report of a potential 15point peace plan to help deescalate the conflict in the Middle East .
• 0:46
  That is bringing a bit of calm to a very jittery market .
• 0:49
  Taking a look at the bigger picture , the theme for early 2026 is high for longer .
• 0:56
  The Federal Reserve met back on March 18th and decided to keep interest rates right where they are , between 3.5% and 3.75% .
• 1:06
  Even though they cut rates three times late last year , inflation is being stubborn .
• 1:12
  The Core PCE is sitting at 2.7% , and the Fed really wants that down to 2.0% .
• 1:19
  Plus , with the geopolitical tension involving the United States , Israel , and Iran , Brent Crude oil has shot past 104 dollars a barrel .
• 1:29
  This is making life tough for the bond market , specifically the iShares Core U.S.
• 1:33
  Aggregate Bond ETF , or AGG , as yields stay elevated .
• 1:39
  Now , let us talk sectors .
• 1:41
  Energy is the absolute superstar of the year , up over 32% since January because of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions .
• 1:50
  If you have been holding energy stocks , you are feeling pretty good right now .
• 1:54
  On the other side , Technology , tracked by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLK , is going through a bit of a valuation reset .
• 2:03
  The growth is there , but high interest rates are making those tech multiples look a bit heavy .
• 2:09
  Meanwhile , Financials are struggling , with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLF , down about 10% this year .
• 2:18
  People are worried about a credit slowdown , especially since unemployment ticked up to 4.4% .
• 2:25
  In company news , Nvidia had their big GTC conference last week .
• 2:30
  CEO Jensen Huang announced a staggering one trillion dollars in cumulative demand for GPUs through 2027 .
• 2:38
  Even with that massive news , the stock is actually down 5% this year .
• 2:44
  At about 175 dollars a share , it is trading at 22 times forward earnings , which is a lot more reasonable than it used to be .
• 2:54
  Then we have Apple .
• 2:55
  They just held their March Experience event and unveiled the iPhone 17e and a 599 dollar MacBook Neo .
• 3:04
  It looks like they are trying to capture more market share in a cooling consumer economy .
• 3:10
  And do not forget Broadcom — their AI division grew 106% in the first quarter , making them a serious rival to Nvidia for custom silicon .
• 3:19
  So , what should we do with our money ?
• 3:21
  First , I am looking at strategic growth .
• 3:24
  This pullback in tech is a disciplined entry point .
• 3:27
  I would suggest looking at the Invesco QQQ Trust or even Nvidia directly .
• 3:32
  With that trillion dollar demand forecast , the AI story is not a bubble ; it is a structural shift .
• 3:39
  If these peace talks go well and energy prices drop , tech is going to lead the rebound .
• 3:44
  Second , we need a hedge .
• 3:46
  Inflation is sticky and the Middle East is unpredictable .
• 3:49
  I like SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD .
• 3:53
  Gold is near 4,565 dollars an ounce right now .
• 3:57
  It is the ultimate fear gauge .
• 3:59
  If the peace talks hit a snag , gold and energy are where people will run for safety .
• 4:04
  Third , let us talk yield .
• 4:07
  With the Fed likely done raising rates , bonds are looking attractive .
• 4:11
  Look at the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF , also known as TLT .
• 4:16
  If the economy keeps slowing down — like that 4.4% unemployment suggests — the Fed will eventually have to pivot and cut rates .
• 4:25
  That would give TLT some significant upside .
• 4:28
  Finally , for a recovery play , keep an eye on Real Estate .
• 4:32
  The Vanguard Real Estate ETF , or VNQ , has been beat up because of high rates .
• 4:38
  But as things stabilize , we could see a big rotation back into REITs .
• 4:44
  They are looking pretty undervalued compared to historical norms .
• 4:47
  For those holding a broad market view , the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI , remains a solid core holding as the 2.4% GDP growth shows the economy is still resilient .
• 5:00
  One last tip : if you have been riding that 32% gain in Energy with the XLE fund , today might be a good day to trim some profits .
• 5:10
  If the peace talk rally holds , oil prices could dip further .
• 5:14
  That is all for this morning's update of Spy Trader !
• 5:17
  Stay disciplined , keep an eye on the headlines , and I will check back in with you in a few hours .
• 5:23
  Happy trading !