Latest / WCHS Network Podcasts / 03/03/2025 Retire Right Radio with John Burdette

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03/03/2025 Retire Right Radio with John Burdette · WCHS Network Podcasts

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Speaker 2: The views and opinions expressed on this program do not
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Speaker 2: necessarily reflect the views and opinions of five eight WCCHS
0:22
Speaker 2: its employees or WVRC Media. This is retire Right Radio,
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Speaker 2: a weekly show from John Verdett at Fourth Avenue Financial
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Speaker 2: that aims to answer your questions about financial planning, investing,
0:35
Speaker 2: and how to retire right. Fourth Avenue Financial is located
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Speaker 2: in downtown Charleston at one seventy Court Street. More information
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Speaker 2: online at Fourth Avenue Financial dot com. Join the conversation
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Speaker 2: by calling three oh four three four five fifty eight
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Speaker 2: fifty eight or text three oh four nine three five
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Speaker 2: fifty oh eight. On retire Right Radio, let's go live
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Speaker 2: to the studio with host Dale Cooper and John Verdett
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Speaker 2: on Fourth Avenue Financial and.
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Speaker 3: Very much good morning to you. You're listening to retire
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Speaker 3: Right Radio on Bob ad WHS. The voice of Charles
1:07
Speaker 3: and I'm Del Cooper. Thanks for tuning in on this
1:09
Speaker 3: Monday morning. Congratulations you made it through the weekend. A
1:12
Speaker 3: little wendy on Saturday in Chili, but man, yesterday was
1:14
Speaker 3: a nice day. A little cooler this morning as we're
1:17
Speaker 3: headed out to work, but at sunshine it'll be a
1:19
Speaker 3: nice day today in the in the fifties, so I
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Speaker 3: have no complaints as far as that go. John Burdad
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Speaker 3: is joining me from Fourth Avenue Financial Online, Fourth Avenue
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Speaker 3: Financial dot com. John, how you doing this morning. I'm
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Speaker 3: doing wonderful. Thanks for coming in this morning. I always
1:29
Speaker 3: look forward to our Monday discussions and there's always plenty
1:32
Speaker 3: to talk about as far as the market and stuff
1:34
Speaker 3: like that goes. Have a good weekend though, we'll talk
1:36
Speaker 3: about those things first. Yeah.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, great weekend.
1:39
Speaker 5: We got a little little bit done in the shop,
1:41
Speaker 5: you know, the the free time is spent you know
1:45
Speaker 5: in the shop, pricing records and all kinds of good stuff.
1:50
Speaker 5: Went to an auction and got a nice nice items
1:52
Speaker 5: for the store. So yeah, it was a fun weekend. Yeah,
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Speaker 5: there's nothing wrong with that. I yesterday was our big
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Speaker 5: car washing days. You know, we wanted to take all
1:59
Speaker 5: the cars and watch. My kid loves to help me
2:01
Speaker 5: wash the car. She's good at it too.
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Speaker 3: She gets like the little rags and goes around and
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Speaker 3: gets everything in a little corners I can't reach. She does
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Speaker 3: a great job. But yesterday the big fancy car wash
2:10
Speaker 3: we usually go through in canlol citia closed down or
2:12
Speaker 3: the maintenance or whatever, and so there was a much
2:14
Speaker 3: lesser one we had to go through. But the one
2:16
Speaker 3: we usually go through has like lights and all this stuff,
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Speaker 3: and when she was much younger, she's to be scared
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Speaker 3: of him, and so I turned it into like a
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Speaker 3: like an adventure. It's like it's the lights, It's like
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Speaker 3: we're going through this thing. I related it to a
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Speaker 3: cartoon that she likes and stuff. So all of that
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Speaker 3: is great until you need to wash the car and
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Speaker 3: that particular one is shut down. And because she was
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Speaker 3: very upset that we couldn't go to her favorite car wash,
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Speaker 3: and so had to come up with a whole new
2:38
Speaker 3: narrative yesterday on why we had to go. So the
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Speaker 3: villain shut down that car wash and now we were
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Speaker 3: forced to go through his lesser, darker car wash, and
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Speaker 3: she got into it. But that's what nice days are
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Speaker 3: all about, you know, you got to get out and
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Speaker 3: have some adventures and stuff like that. It's good.
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Speaker 4: Sure, it's like making your own Disney ride exactly.
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Speaker 3: You gotta figure it out somehow or another. She's not
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Speaker 3: scared of him anymore. She just likes the She just
2:58
Speaker 3: likes thinking that. She's open out her cartoon friends or whatever.
3:01
Speaker 3: You know. You can give us a call this morn
3:03
Speaker 3: if you have any questions for John about how you
3:05
Speaker 3: can retire right, not about you know, kids in car washes,
3:07
Speaker 3: but if you want to learn how you can retire
3:09
Speaker 3: right you have any questions about Hey, things are a
3:11
Speaker 3: little different right now. You know, things are differently different.
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Speaker 3: They're a little different than they've been in the past,
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Speaker 3: even different than COVID era stuff. You know. Uh uh.
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Speaker 3: That doesn't mean that strategies change. It just means the
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Speaker 3: information in the years simulating might be a little bit
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Speaker 3: different and might need to tweak some stuff. But you
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Speaker 3: might want to give John a call this morning, maybe
3:27
Speaker 3: to either talk you down a little bit or to
3:28
Speaker 3: talk you into some good advice. You can give us
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Speaker 3: a call three zero four three four two eight one
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Speaker 3: three one three four two eight one three one you
3:33
Speaker 3: can also text over any questions you have the three
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Speaker 3: zero four non three five five zero zero eight three
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Speaker 3: zero four nine three five five zero zero eight. So
3:40
Speaker 3: we always start off the show talking about how the
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Speaker 3: UH the market looked the previous week, and uh, it
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Speaker 3: was an interesting week, an interesting week, lass.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, no doubt it was.
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Speaker 3: Uh.
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Speaker 5: You know, fortunately, UH the end of the week, we
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Speaker 5: came back a little bit, but we were we were
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Speaker 5: down pretty good there the early part of the week. Interestingly,
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Speaker 5: the Dow, the Dow Industrials was up for the week,
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Speaker 5: up one percent, so it was up pretty healthy, but
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Speaker 5: the tech heavy NASTAK was down three and a half percent.
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Speaker 5: And we're now down on the year for the tech
4:09
Speaker 5: stocks in the last deck. So all that leadership has
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Speaker 5: now gone away and it's it's the boring stocks that
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Speaker 5: are are finally taking the lead after several years of
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Speaker 5: being in the last place.
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Speaker 3: Is there such a thing as not only overexposure from
4:25
Speaker 3: the UH, from the UH from your standpoint, like from
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Speaker 3: being overexposed into an investment or too much into it?
4:30
Speaker 3: But there is there such a can an industry get
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Speaker 3: cause it's like the tech industry, it's not necessarily the
4:36
Speaker 3: fundamentals when you look at financials or anything. I mean,
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Speaker 3: there's other people that look at that. But just because
4:40
Speaker 3: everything is a sentiment, you know, we've talked about that before.
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Speaker 3: Is there like a sentiment that's sort of like we're
4:45
Speaker 3: just sick of the tech stuff, like like everybody's talking
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Speaker 3: about this all the time, or is it just a
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Speaker 3: normal haircut because these things were running so hot?
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Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I think there's a little bit of
4:54
Speaker 5: all of that. The earnings for the companies are generally good.
4:59
Speaker 5: If they are they are, and the projections are that
5:03
Speaker 5: the rate of growth is going to be slowing down.
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Speaker 3: So it's that plateau area that we've talked about before.
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Speaker 5: Right, you know, it's not that the companies are in
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Speaker 5: trouble by any stretch. It's just that you know, if
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Speaker 5: you're going to pay high multiples for those stocks, you.
5:20
Speaker 4: Better get the growth to support that.
5:22
Speaker 5: And there's a little bit of worry that, you know,
5:25
Speaker 5: we may be getting to the point where earnings are
5:28
Speaker 5: are like you say, they're they're healthy, and they're growing,
5:32
Speaker 5: but not at the rate that maybe folks hoped for.
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Speaker 5: And and that is when your priced at those you know,
5:41
Speaker 5: escalated levels, there's there's not a lot of room to
5:44
Speaker 5: miss the mark.
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Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, And and things become a lot more
5:49
Speaker 3: narrow in in those cases.
5:50
Speaker 4: And if you look at.
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Speaker 5: Earnings to the the the other sectors of the market,
5:57
Speaker 5: the earnings there have actually been accelerating. So you have
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Speaker 5: a story where potentially the tech stocks while still growing,
6:06
Speaker 5: the growth rate slows, but the rest of the economy
6:11
Speaker 5: earnings seem to be accelerating. And the valuations are so
6:16
Speaker 5: different between the two company and two types of companies,
6:19
Speaker 5: you know, in other words, the multiple you're willing to
6:21
Speaker 5: pay for a dollar of earnings is so much more
6:24
Speaker 5: attractive on the value are and at stocks versus the
6:27
Speaker 5: tech that people are taking notice of that, and that's
6:32
Speaker 5: why you're seeing a broadening of the market and the
6:34
Speaker 5: leadership is changing a little bit.
6:38
Speaker 3: It's bizarre to me in this life that we live in.
6:41
Speaker 3: I mean, people that try to follow along too closely.
6:45
Speaker 3: We've talked about it before with like following headlines too much.
6:49
Speaker 3: You're getting too worried about things and stuff like that.
6:52
Speaker 3: For example, the oscars were last night. I knew the
6:54
Speaker 3: oscars were last night, sort of. I mean, we covered
6:57
Speaker 3: on a hotline. We had a guest one talking about it.
6:58
Speaker 3: Last week we talked about the oscar. I mean abstractly
7:01
Speaker 3: in my head, I knew that the oscars were last night.
7:03
Speaker 3: When I drove into work this morning and I heard
7:05
Speaker 3: Chris Lawrence doing the report and he was talking about
7:06
Speaker 3: the oscars, I was like, oh, man, I forgot all
7:08
Speaker 3: about the oscars being one last night. And it's easy
7:10
Speaker 3: to miss stuff. Is that there's just happy with you? Yeah?
7:13
Speaker 3: I mean they've never done well. You know what, I
7:17
Speaker 3: actually did get get paid from Hollywood one time when
7:19
Speaker 3: we did the Bigfoot Show.
7:20
Speaker 4: Have you ever told you about that?
7:22
Speaker 3: Yeah? So I think the NBA has ran out on
7:24
Speaker 3: this now. You know how they do the how they
7:26
Speaker 3: do the Finding Bigfoot show? Right? So, Finding Bigfoot had
7:30
Speaker 3: this great idea because somebody had put a bug in
7:32
Speaker 3: their ear about Chris Lawrence in the outdoor show in
7:34
Speaker 3: West Virginia, one of the Bigfoot shows. Had this idea
7:38
Speaker 3: that you know what, what if we created a scenario
7:42
Speaker 3: where this popular outdoor show in West Virginia got a
7:45
Speaker 3: call about Bigfoot And that's that's why we had to
7:48
Speaker 3: go out and investigate when we got to West Virginia.
7:51
Speaker 3: So for anybody that thinks this stuff is real. I
7:55
Speaker 3: was part of it. No, it's not. The Planet calls
7:58
Speaker 3: the entire thing. I mean it's completely fake, like most
8:01
Speaker 3: of the stuff that you see on on supposed uh
8:04
Speaker 3: you know, uh cryptozoology and stuff like that. I mean,
8:06
Speaker 3: it's completely manufactured stuff. But yeah, right, exactly. Yeah, the
8:12
Speaker 3: ok isle and thing. What's hilarious is I actually personally
8:14
Speaker 3: know an archaeologist that that and a anthropologist that have
8:18
Speaker 3: worked in that that has worked in that area, and
8:20
Speaker 3: they hated that show so much. It's like it is
8:23
Speaker 3: the biggest ps that's ever that's ever walked. But it's
8:26
Speaker 3: but it's just I guess what I what I'm relating
8:29
Speaker 3: back to is there's some things that are that Because
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Speaker 3: you might see it bubble up in the headlines, and
8:34
Speaker 3: then you relate that to like common knowledge or whatever
8:36
Speaker 3: it might be, you end up making a lot of
8:38
Speaker 3: assumption sometimes maybe you shouldn't. You know. That's again, that's
8:40
Speaker 3: a good reason why you have a professional that's on
8:42
Speaker 3: your side to kind of walk through some of these things,
8:44
Speaker 3: because if you think, uh, something meant something, but that
8:48
Speaker 3: you know, wisdom is a decade old, and then you
8:51
Speaker 3: see something come up in the headline, you might react
8:53
Speaker 3: in ways that aren't really solvent to today's issues.
8:57
Speaker 5: Well, especially with things as simple as rebalancing your portfolio.
9:00
Speaker 4: I mean, if you have a portfolio.
9:04
Speaker 5: Let's say you set a portfolio up a handful of
9:06
Speaker 5: years ago and you had fifteen percent of your money
9:11
Speaker 5: in gross stocks. If you left that unchecked, that might
9:14
Speaker 5: be twenty five for thirty percent now because the growth
9:17
Speaker 5: areas have grown so much faster than the rest of
9:20
Speaker 5: the stocks in your portfolio. So now you're highly concentrated
9:24
Speaker 5: in a small sector because it outgrew the original allocation. Well,
9:29
Speaker 5: if you don't harvest those gains from time to time
9:32
Speaker 5: to stay in balance, you know what happens is that
9:36
Speaker 5: when we have a period like this where leadership shifts,
9:39
Speaker 5: you're going to feel that more then you probably should
9:43
Speaker 5: if you would have.
9:44
Speaker 4: Stayed in balance.
9:45
Speaker 5: And so in other words, if that fifteen percent grows
9:48
Speaker 5: to twenty, well maybe you should take a little bit
9:50
Speaker 5: off the table, harvest some of those gains, and then
9:53
Speaker 5: reallocate so you keep the stability of the portfolio, of
9:58
Speaker 5: the balance between the asset classes, so that when we
10:01
Speaker 5: do have those swings like we have from time to time,
10:05
Speaker 5: you know, it'll be more moderate because you're you're more diversified.
10:09
Speaker 5: And I think that's something that an individual may not
10:12
Speaker 5: do as often as they should because it's hard to
10:17
Speaker 5: do that when everything seems to be working.
10:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think what we've seen in the past
10:22
Speaker 3: baseball seasons come back around, so I can start thinking
10:25
Speaker 3: about parallels in baseball. But what seems to what I
10:29
Speaker 3: seem to in conversations we've had in observations or things.
10:32
Speaker 3: If you leave if you have a certain strategy you
10:35
Speaker 3: kind of set in mind, and especially back in the
10:36
Speaker 3: days where things were really easy, you could really run
10:39
Speaker 3: pretty hot and look like you're doing good. The unfortunate
10:41
Speaker 3: thing is is when things take a turn the other
10:43
Speaker 3: direction because you're not well balanced, you go really cold.
10:45
Speaker 3: So it's like a streaky player. You know, you have
10:47
Speaker 3: a streaky player up Would you rather have a streaky
10:49
Speaker 3: player up with when you have guys and running runners
10:52
Speaker 3: and scoring positions, when when you don't know if he's
10:54
Speaker 3: on a hotter cold streak or when he's in the
10:55
Speaker 3: middle of a cold streak. You know, I mean, when
10:57
Speaker 3: he's going good, you know he might drive in those runs.
10:59
Speaker 3: If he's not, he went too well, he might strike out.
11:01
Speaker 3: You got somebody that has performance, it's more more uh uh,
11:06
Speaker 3: that is more average. We're not average, but is more
11:08
Speaker 3: consistent that you're that you're constantly doing. They're contantly adjusting
11:11
Speaker 3: their game. They may not have the super highs, but
11:13
Speaker 3: they also don't have the super lows. That guy's more consistent.
11:15
Speaker 3: He's more likely to drive in the runs consistently over
11:17
Speaker 3: the course of a year and everything else. It makes
11:19
Speaker 3: sense to be more moderate in those situations because it's
11:22
Speaker 3: going to safeguard you against the extreams either way.
11:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, no doubt about it.
11:26
Speaker 5: And and you know you may be in that situation
11:28
Speaker 5: and you may be experiencing that. Now that's a good
11:31
Speaker 5: opportunity to say, hey, I need to call old John
11:34
Speaker 5: up and have him look in my portfolio. You know,
11:37
Speaker 5: those last several weeks may have made that scenario apparent
11:43
Speaker 5: to you.
11:43
Speaker 4: When you look at your performance.
11:45
Speaker 3: You could see you can see somebody you can almost
11:47
Speaker 3: sort of sketch out somebody in their head, maybe who
11:49
Speaker 3: you know, was one line on some forums, maybe read
11:51
Speaker 3: it or whatever. They got invested heavily into the tech
11:54
Speaker 3: sectors in different ways and probably did pretty well. For
11:56
Speaker 3: a while. Probably did pretty well for a while, you know,
11:58
Speaker 3: But it.
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Speaker 5: Doesn't mean that those sectors are going to be bad forever.
12:03
Speaker 5: It's just relative performance and keeping a balance in your portfolio.
12:09
Speaker 5: You know, a lot of times too, you buy growth
12:13
Speaker 5: oriented things when you're younger, typically in your four oh
12:16
Speaker 5: one K. There again, if you do that for ten
12:19
Speaker 5: fifteen years, you've probably done well. But now if you're
12:22
Speaker 5: at the stage where maybe you're retiring soon or have retired,
12:25
Speaker 5: and are drawing money off of that, well you have
12:29
Speaker 5: to have to rebalance your portfolio. You have to look
12:32
Speaker 5: at your portfolio and say, okay, what stage of life
12:34
Speaker 5: of am I in, and can I take these wild
12:37
Speaker 5: swings that I could take when I was thirty years
12:39
Speaker 5: old and make those allocation changes to keep the balance.
12:44
Speaker 5: And I see that a lot a lot of folks
12:47
Speaker 5: are like, well, I'm going to retire. This has worked
12:49
Speaker 5: for me for the last twenty or thirty years. I
12:51
Speaker 5: don't need to change anything. Well, you really do, because
12:55
Speaker 5: your life has changed, your needs have changed. You're now
12:58
Speaker 5: not a depositor into that account, you're a withdrawer from
13:01
Speaker 5: that account, and that that changes everything. And and so
13:05
Speaker 5: I think some of the you know, the market shifts
13:08
Speaker 5: and life switches that just happen naturally sometimes as benchmarks
13:14
Speaker 5: get missed, and those are the things you really need
13:18
Speaker 5: to focus on so that your portfolio is doing the
13:22
Speaker 5: job that you need it to do.
13:25
Speaker 3: That makes a lot of sense, and it's really a
13:26
Speaker 3: very measured approach to tackling the entire issue, which is
13:30
Speaker 3: exactly what you need to do, and make sure that
13:31
Speaker 3: you have a thoughtful approach to go about it, that
13:34
Speaker 3: you're well diversified as you've talked about, and you're informed
13:37
Speaker 3: about the day you know, and to do that most easily,
13:40
Speaker 3: you have a professional that does it for you, because
13:42
Speaker 3: only only that can really understand the trends, how to
13:46
Speaker 3: do it, how to work towards really getting to a
13:49
Speaker 3: point where you're making money work for you, and how
13:51
Speaker 3: you can really bolster up your retirement. You know, there's
13:53
Speaker 3: a multi phases to that plan. It's hard to juggle
13:55
Speaker 3: those as just a person out there where you know
13:57
Speaker 3: you're working for forty or fifty hours a week, you
13:59
Speaker 3: have a fan of some kind trying to stay up
14:01
Speaker 3: on everything. It's another job. That's why there's professionals that
14:04
Speaker 3: do it.
14:04
Speaker 5: Yeah, and something else I'm seeing. I can just tell
14:09
Speaker 5: conversations that I have phone calls that come in. There
14:12
Speaker 5: are a lot of headlines out there right now, yeah,
14:14
Speaker 5: you know, political related headlines and policy changes, and some
14:22
Speaker 5: people either really love it or some people really hate it.
14:26
Speaker 5: And so I'm getting more calls about those type of
14:30
Speaker 5: things and wanting to just switch the whole portfolio up
14:33
Speaker 5: all at once, And that's usually the wrong answer too.
14:38
Speaker 5: You know, there are a lot of things out there
14:39
Speaker 5: happening right now that create noise, and that doesn't mean
14:43
Speaker 5: it doesn't affect the market in the short term, but
14:46
Speaker 5: that doesn't that doesn't mean you need to abandon your
14:48
Speaker 5: long term strategy either. You know, what happens in for instance,
14:53
Speaker 5: the Ukraine and in those negotiations that doesn't necessarily impact
15:00
Speaker 5: the earnings of the company you own. It might, you know,
15:04
Speaker 5: change the market sentiment for a day or two, but
15:08
Speaker 5: it fundamentally doesn't change the earnings profile of most of
15:12
Speaker 5: the companies that you probably own in a portfolio. And
15:15
Speaker 5: so there's a big risk, particularly right now, because of
15:19
Speaker 5: all the changes that are happening, that you get sucked
15:21
Speaker 5: up into that and start making decisions based on those
15:27
Speaker 5: you know, passing news stories in abandoning your long term plan.
15:32
Speaker 5: So I think I'd be on guard right now for
15:35
Speaker 5: that as well. And it's hard sometimes when you're doing
15:38
Speaker 5: it yourself, particularly when you're retired and relying on that money.
15:45
Speaker 5: It's hard to keep yourself from making some of those
15:47
Speaker 5: more rash, emotional decisions in this type of environment.
15:51
Speaker 3: And if you're a measured person and looking at things realistically,
15:54
Speaker 3: regardless of where you think about the political landscape, you
15:56
Speaker 3: also realize you don't know what is a like a
16:00
Speaker 3: headline noise, something that's that's you know, going to bubble
16:03
Speaker 3: up for a few days or a week or two
16:04
Speaker 3: or whatever then basically go away. It's not going to
16:06
Speaker 3: really change the course of an investment or an event
16:10
Speaker 3: or anything like that. What is an unattended consequence is
16:12
Speaker 3: like everybody's telling you this isn't going to happen, but
16:14
Speaker 3: actually I think it is going to happen, you know,
16:16
Speaker 3: And you have to safeguard yourself against that because not
16:20
Speaker 3: all the time or the people that you listen to,
16:21
Speaker 3: right so you're like, what do I do with this information?
16:23
Speaker 3: You know? And then you have people then you have
16:26
Speaker 3: like the way that it's going to end up being.
16:27
Speaker 3: Then you have people that might just straight out law
16:29
Speaker 3: to you if you're listening to the wrong information. I mean,
16:31
Speaker 3: you're really competing with a lot of information streams trying
16:33
Speaker 3: to make the right decision there. And if you're not
16:36
Speaker 3: a profession on that, and you got people yelling at
16:37
Speaker 3: you one way and people yelling at you another way,
16:39
Speaker 3: you could very well be like, well, I better sell
16:43
Speaker 3: all of my energy stock or you know, whatever it
16:45
Speaker 3: might be that you're that the moment is telling you
16:47
Speaker 3: to do. That's not the right way to go about.
16:49
Speaker 5: It, right And and you know, history shows that. I mean,
16:53
Speaker 5: I think a good example is the previous election when
16:57
Speaker 5: when the Biden administration came in, folks are like, oh, well,
16:59
Speaker 5: guess stocks are are are are not going to do
17:02
Speaker 5: good in this environment. They did just fine. Their earnings
17:05
Speaker 5: were just fine. Now, some of the people that were
17:08
Speaker 5: working in those industries on the pipelines and things that
17:11
Speaker 5: got canceled, it probably wasn't a good time for them
17:13
Speaker 5: in there in in their in their employment, but the
17:17
Speaker 5: companies made adjustments and their profits were just fine. And
17:21
Speaker 5: so even even if you're right.
17:24
Speaker 4: On the direction, uh that that.
17:29
Speaker 5: Things are moving in the industry that you feel like
17:32
Speaker 5: you know about that doesn't always translate to earnings. And
17:35
Speaker 5: when you're an owner of a company, that's really what matters.
17:39
Speaker 5: Is the company making money and and if they are,
17:43
Speaker 5: you know, that supports the stock prices.
17:45
Speaker 3: And it really uh, that's that's the fundamentals. That's the
17:47
Speaker 3: alternate fundamental, right, is that if you're if you're making
17:50
Speaker 3: the revenue and your meeting goals or whatever it might be,
17:52
Speaker 3: that means you're properly managing the company.
17:54
Speaker 5: And if you just look at the headline and try
17:57
Speaker 5: to come up with the with the response to those headlines,
18:02
Speaker 5: then you're also assuming that the people that are managing
18:06
Speaker 5: those companies are just sitting on their hands and not
18:10
Speaker 5: making adjustments within their own companies to deal with the
18:15
Speaker 5: policy changes that are happening. And so you might be
18:19
Speaker 5: right on, hey, if this policy comes out, this is
18:21
Speaker 5: bad for that company, But then you need also take
18:25
Speaker 5: the step but what could that company do in response
18:28
Speaker 5: to that.
18:29
Speaker 3: And understand that that's always happening? You know, it's correct.
18:31
Speaker 3: We have a tendency as people, I think, to assume
18:34
Speaker 3: everybody else's NPCs in our lives. I mean, that's unfortunately,
18:37
Speaker 3: that's kind of the way we do it. But just
18:39
Speaker 3: one layer to think about is like chess, and I
18:41
Speaker 3: don't I'm not an excellent chess player, but I used
18:43
Speaker 3: to play quite a bit. And you're playing a competitive game,
18:46
Speaker 3: and you have your strategy completely set up. You're looking
18:49
Speaker 3: at the board and you look like gets perfect, it's
18:52
Speaker 3: impervious to anything else. Your four moves away from a win,
18:55
Speaker 3: two moves later, you're in checkmate. You're like, how the
18:57
Speaker 3: heck did that happen? I didn't even see it coming.
19:00
Speaker 3: And it's because other the other person's not an NPC.
19:02
Speaker 3: They're not just letting you deploy your offense against them
19:05
Speaker 3: and getting ready. They're they're working also to counteract that.
19:08
Speaker 3: You don't know what their plans are until they put
19:10
Speaker 3: in checkmate. But that's you know, businesses aren't necessarily trying
19:13
Speaker 3: to put you in checkmate, you know, as it's for
19:14
Speaker 3: your pocketbook, I guess. But but that there's always people
19:17
Speaker 3: working behind the scenes. If there's forces that seem to
19:19
Speaker 3: be working against them, don't be surprised that they don't
19:21
Speaker 3: end up being against them, because there's people working to
19:24
Speaker 3: try to make it, turn it around and make it
19:25
Speaker 3: into an advantage of some kind.
19:27
Speaker 4: Yeah, no doubt about it.
19:28
Speaker 5: And and so when you see these headlines and these
19:30
Speaker 5: headline risks that it looks like are into the market,
19:35
Speaker 5: you know, it's it's almost a guessing game or a
19:38
Speaker 5: gambling game when you start reacting to all of that
19:42
Speaker 5: news on a daily basis, because no one knows how
19:46
Speaker 5: that that chain of information is going to play out
19:49
Speaker 5: in the actual earnings of businesses. I mean, you're you're
19:53
Speaker 5: literally playing a guessing game or throwing darts at a
19:56
Speaker 5: board and hoping you hit the right number. Yeah, you know,
20:00
Speaker 5: that's why you have to look at investments as a
20:03
Speaker 5: long term outlook. You know what am I trying to accomplish?
20:08
Speaker 5: What's important to me? How do I make sure this
20:11
Speaker 5: portfolio is providing for me what I needed to provide
20:16
Speaker 5: regardless of that news. And that's hard to do on
20:20
Speaker 5: your own, as I say, particularly as you get towards
20:24
Speaker 5: retirement and you know you have to make that money
20:27
Speaker 5: work for you.
20:29
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and do this. We're about eighteen minutes
20:31
Speaker 3: until the top of the hour. We need to take
20:32
Speaker 3: our commercial break. When we come back, we can still
20:34
Speaker 3: take plenty of time. We talked enough. If you want
20:35
Speaker 3: to get in and ask the expert your questions. John
20:37
Speaker 3: Burdad is here to help navigate your retirement future. If
20:41
Speaker 3: you have questions about what's going on now, what needs
20:43
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20:44
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20:46
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23:51
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23:56
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23:58
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24:01
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24:12
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24:16
Speaker 5: I can help you navigate the long and winding road
24:19
Speaker 5: to retirement.
24:20
Speaker 3: We could, man, we could do this all day. We
24:22
Speaker 3: could do this all day. It's been a hard day's night.
24:24
Speaker 3: It's time to take a look. Put everything in yesterday's mirror, right, Okay,
24:31
Speaker 3: let's see.
24:33
Speaker 4: Oh I've choked him up.
24:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know. I've been trying to keep from from
24:37
Speaker 3: coffin on air all morning. Uh, it's a it's a challenge. Okay.
24:40
Speaker 3: So before we went to actually when we firstarted talking
24:42
Speaker 3: about the show this morning, you wanted to talk a
24:43
Speaker 3: little bit about the difference between it was bonds and
24:47
Speaker 3: UH bond funds and UH. I think it's a pretty
24:51
Speaker 3: good topic because I have no idea what the difference is.
24:53
Speaker 3: So let's talk about that for just a minute.
24:55
Speaker 5: Well, you know, it has been apparent the last couple
24:59
Speaker 5: of years went up that there are risks in bonds
25:04
Speaker 5: and bond funds because prices go down when interest rates
25:08
Speaker 5: go up. There's an inverse relation. Now, if you own
25:11
Speaker 5: an individual bond, you're buying a bond with a set maturity.
25:16
Speaker 5: So if you buy a bond for three years and
25:20
Speaker 5: you hold that for three years, you put your money in,
25:23
Speaker 5: you earn interest three years to bond matures, and you
25:26
Speaker 5: get your money back and there's no loss there because
25:29
Speaker 5: you held it to maturity. A bond fund is a
25:33
Speaker 5: little bit different in that it doesn't have a maturity.
25:37
Speaker 5: A bond fund is a portfolio that's being managed for
25:40
Speaker 5: thousands and thousands of investors that are all coming and
25:44
Speaker 5: going at different times, buying and selling at different times
25:48
Speaker 5: for different reasons. So the poor portfolio manager has to
25:52
Speaker 5: manage not just the portfolio, but the cash flow that
25:56
Speaker 5: the investors that are leaving and coming are bringing to
26:00
Speaker 5: the table, and so you're not always holding bonds to maturity.
26:08
Speaker 5: And if you're not holding a bond of maturity, then
26:10
Speaker 5: there's a risk that if the market moves against you
26:14
Speaker 5: and the manager has to sell, that you're actually going
26:17
Speaker 5: to be selling part of your bond portfolio at a loss.
26:22
Speaker 5: Which a lot of folks are like, well, how do
26:24
Speaker 5: you lose money in a bond? Well, if you don't
26:28
Speaker 5: hold it to maturity, you certainly can. And so individual
26:32
Speaker 5: bonds in particularly larger portfolios, are a little bit easier
26:41
Speaker 5: to It's easier to visualize how it works, number one,
26:45
Speaker 5: because you see the bond, you see the maturity, and
26:48
Speaker 5: you know, you just you know, hey, the bond is down,
26:50
Speaker 5: but I know when I hold it to maturity, I
26:52
Speaker 5: get my money back, so it's not really down. You
26:56
Speaker 5: just can't say the same things about a bond fund
26:58
Speaker 5: because you're it's like you're riding a bus with a
27:01
Speaker 5: bunch of people on it and people are getting on
27:04
Speaker 5: and off at all times. Interesting, and so that bond
27:08
Speaker 5: fund it has a duration. You know, they average out
27:10
Speaker 5: the bonds maturity dates, but that's not the same as
27:16
Speaker 5: I own a bond with a with.
27:17
Speaker 4: A set maturity.
27:19
Speaker 5: You know, you can buy a bond fund that's as well.
27:22
Speaker 5: And these these average you know, five year maturities. There's
27:27
Speaker 5: there's nothing saying that that those bonds will actually all
27:30
Speaker 5: be held five years.
27:32
Speaker 4: They most likely will not.
27:33
Speaker 3: This is wild to me. I didn't even know this existed.
27:35
Speaker 3: And when you said bond fund, you know, in my
27:38
Speaker 3: mind for most doing the shows, I was like, okay, fund,
27:40
Speaker 3: so that means but but I kind of short circuited
27:42
Speaker 3: after that because I didn't know how you would get
27:44
Speaker 3: from bonds to a fund. So so that's pretty interesting.
27:47
Speaker 3: That's uh. What is the what is the uh typical
27:51
Speaker 3: use of that tool, Like what type of person and
27:53
Speaker 3: what environment are they in where that's an effective investment
27:56
Speaker 3: tool for them.
27:57
Speaker 5: Well, I think a lot of things have just been
27:59
Speaker 5: in the last couple of years, Like I say, as
28:01
Speaker 5: rates went from zero to four or five percent, you know,
28:05
Speaker 5: that was a period where bonds looked like they failed
28:10
Speaker 5: a portfolio because they actually went down. And and you
28:15
Speaker 5: know most folks think, well, bonds are stable, well they're
28:19
Speaker 5: relatively stable compared to stocks, but the prices do fluctuate
28:24
Speaker 5: depending on what interest rates are. And so if if
28:27
Speaker 5: if interest rates go up, you know, imagine imagine you,
28:31
Speaker 5: you and I were here and I was going to
28:34
Speaker 5: loan you some money, and I loan you one thousand
28:38
Speaker 5: dollars and you agree to give me five percent interest.
28:42
Speaker 5: Well let's say interest rates go up, and now interest
28:45
Speaker 5: rates are ten percent, and I want to sell to
28:48
Speaker 5: somebody else. The agreement we made so that I basically
28:54
Speaker 5: am giving up my right to your five percent, and
28:57
Speaker 5: you know that you're paying me. That next person I
29:01
Speaker 5: sell that to is not going to pay me as
29:02
Speaker 5: much money because now they can go get ten percent
29:06
Speaker 5: somewhere elsetch. So my bond is worth less. Now I
29:10
Speaker 5: haven't actually lost money if I hold it for those
29:12
Speaker 5: five years and you pay me my thousand dollars back.
29:17
Speaker 5: But if I sell it early, somebody's not going to
29:20
Speaker 5: give me the full face value of that because they're
29:22
Speaker 5: going to discount it to what prevailing interest rates are.
29:27
Speaker 5: And that's what happens in the bond market. So if
29:30
Speaker 5: you own a bond individually, you can just elect to
29:34
Speaker 5: hold that bond and get your principal back, But you
29:38
Speaker 5: can't elect to do that in a bond fund because
29:41
Speaker 5: it doesn't have a set maturity. The comings and goings
29:46
Speaker 5: of the other investors force the manager to buy and
29:51
Speaker 5: sell bonds, so it's a little bit different animal.
29:55
Speaker 3: So the return is more of an aggregate of all
29:57
Speaker 3: the bonds that have been sold during the course of
29:59
Speaker 3: the thund for each of the however they determined for
30:03
Speaker 3: the other profits compartment.
30:05
Speaker 5: Right, and when let's say, you know, bonds for safety,
30:09
Speaker 5: which they certainly are, are more stable than stocks are
30:13
Speaker 5: over time. But environments like a financial panic like two
30:17
Speaker 5: thousand and eight, well, most bonds didn't fail for good.
30:24
Speaker 5: I mean some, you know, some did, but most didn't.
30:27
Speaker 5: Most most paid out as they were expected. But everyone
30:33
Speaker 5: panicked and sold everything. So you could have scenarios, and
30:38
Speaker 5: you did have scenarios where you have a fund that
30:40
Speaker 5: owns high quality bonds, but the investors panic out. And
30:46
Speaker 5: if everybody's panicking, what happens to prices?
30:49
Speaker 3: They fall?
30:50
Speaker 4: What is that manager then forced to do? He's forced
30:53
Speaker 4: to liquidate.
30:54
Speaker 3: It's just like a bank run again, right, Basically, everybody
30:56
Speaker 3: makes the call at one.
30:57
Speaker 5: Time, that's right, and so he's selling out those rather
31:00
Speaker 5: than holding them.
31:01
Speaker 4: To maturity, which ensures.
31:04
Speaker 5: That when the market rebounds and returns, he's not holding
31:07
Speaker 5: those bonds anymore. Where if you own the individual bond,
31:11
Speaker 5: you could have waited it out.
31:12
Speaker 3: It's crazy how sentiment and herd mentality can can can
31:15
Speaker 3: change these things. So often. You know, a couple of
31:17
Speaker 3: people start to sell or start to move something, and
31:20
Speaker 3: then it becomes sort of a thing, maybe even not
31:22
Speaker 3: for any it's just like momentum, and people don't even
31:24
Speaker 3: know why they're doing it. It's really odd in economics.
31:26
Speaker 3: As I've been doing this show and listening to some
31:29
Speaker 3: like podcasts and stuff like that, as it's explained, it's
31:31
Speaker 3: really fascinating. The the I don't want to call it voodoo,
31:34
Speaker 3: but it is sort of the voodoo of economics and
31:37
Speaker 3: how there's hard data and then there's like just the
31:40
Speaker 3: X factor of sentiment and you have no idea what
31:42
Speaker 3: that's going to do. But it's a real thing. It's
31:43
Speaker 3: not placebo. It really drops the market.
31:45
Speaker 5: That moves it does move the market now now, of
31:48
Speaker 5: course long term it's based on earnings, all right, But
31:50
Speaker 5: things like this with the bond fund, I mean, that's
31:53
Speaker 5: a structural thing in the way that it's being put
31:57
Speaker 5: together and managed that it's largely out of it viduals control,
32:01
Speaker 5: and so you have to think about that when you're
32:03
Speaker 5: building your portfolio, when you're deciding do I buy some
32:07
Speaker 5: individual bonds or do I buy bond funds. You know,
32:10
Speaker 5: the downside to bond bonds individually is that you have
32:15
Speaker 5: to buy them in larger quantities, so you can't diversify
32:18
Speaker 5: as easily. And that's why most people accumulate. In four
32:23
Speaker 5: oh one case, they're accumulating bond funds generally, because you
32:26
Speaker 5: can buy those at twenty five fifty dollars a clip.
32:29
Speaker 5: You need thousands and thousands of dollars to buy individual
32:32
Speaker 5: bonds and they and you buy them once, you don't
32:36
Speaker 5: accumulate them. So they're different types of vehicles investment vehicles
32:41
Speaker 5: that sometimes they get lumped together, but they really behave
32:46
Speaker 5: very differently.
32:47
Speaker 3: And I guess anytime that you're gonna have something that's
32:49
Speaker 3: that's part of a fund, you're going to have to
32:51
Speaker 3: see how that works and how it's going to affect
32:53
Speaker 3: for the for the for the investment.
32:56
Speaker 5: A lot of investment vehicles, which is not an idea thing.
33:00
Speaker 5: A lot of investment vehicles return is sometimes it's based
33:05
Speaker 5: on the reaction of the individual investors that are in
33:09
Speaker 5: that fund to the environment, right, because the manager has
33:15
Speaker 5: to make if people want their money, the manager has
33:19
Speaker 5: to liquidate things and and that changes the makeup of
33:23
Speaker 5: the portfolio potentially for the investors that are still in
33:27
Speaker 5: the fund.
33:28
Speaker 3: It's very interesting.
33:29
Speaker 5: So so those type of package products are are I
33:35
Speaker 5: think riding the bus is a good analogy. You know,
33:38
Speaker 5: people are You're on the bus, people are getting on,
33:40
Speaker 5: people are getting off all the time, and that that
33:45
Speaker 5: affects you know, your return.
33:48
Speaker 3: And you only guarantee to get to your destination if
33:50
Speaker 3: you stay on the bus to the end.
33:51
Speaker 4: Right, that's right.
33:52
Speaker 5: Fund like that most people don't well, lives change. I
33:57
Speaker 5: mean you know in a fund if if you know,
34:00
Speaker 5: some people retire, some people now are drawing off rather
34:04
Speaker 5: than putting it in. That affects the fund that you know,
34:09
Speaker 5: your life hasn't changed, but the fund has to make
34:12
Speaker 5: minute adjustments to deal with those types of things.
34:14
Speaker 4: So these, any of these.
34:15
Speaker 5: Package investments have another layer of risk that I think
34:19
Speaker 5: sometimes is overlooked.
34:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, people consider it. It's not that it's not safe,
34:25
Speaker 3: but sometimes you miss one where the risk could come
34:27
Speaker 3: into it. I think about stuff like other funds that
34:29
Speaker 3: i've that have become popular in the last few years,
34:32
Speaker 3: like they had like the different marijuana funds, weed funds,
34:35
Speaker 3: those people that didn want to invest directly in companies.
34:37
Speaker 3: There was some funds that were created for that. Bitcoin funds,
34:41
Speaker 3: you know, people created different things like that. You know,
34:43
Speaker 3: it's probably safer to invest in a bitcoin fund than
34:46
Speaker 3: bitcoin as far as stability goes, if that's something that
34:49
Speaker 3: you want to do. I know you're not the biggest fan,
34:51
Speaker 3: but that doesn't mean there's not volatility there. There's still
34:53
Speaker 3: volunt utility in there, and it's still driven somew by sentiment.
34:57
Speaker 3: So sometimes the fundamentals can be on your side, but
34:59
Speaker 3: it just doesn't work.
35:00
Speaker 4: Yeah.
35:01
Speaker 5: Yeah, Just you just have to be aware of the
35:03
Speaker 5: types of investment vehicles that you're using in your portfolio
35:07
Speaker 5: and make sure that you understand all the risks and
35:09
Speaker 5: you know involved.
35:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a stock tip for you. Got a
35:12
Speaker 3: stock tip for you that's I don't know how to
35:14
Speaker 3: I don't even care, And I've heard that too many
35:16
Speaker 3: times in my life and I don't necessarily believe it
35:18
Speaker 3: all the time. You Gray squeeze in for a final
35:20
Speaker 3: question here if you'd like to text or phone line,
35:23
Speaker 3: you can call in three zero four three four two
35:24
Speaker 3: eight one three one. Ask John any question that you
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Speaker 3: have about how you can retire right Looking for your
35:28
Speaker 3: retirement future. Threes are four three four two eight one
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Speaker 3: three one. You can text. Threes are A four non
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Speaker 3: three five five zero zero eight. Threes are four non
35:34
Speaker 3: three five five zero zero eight. We've we sort of
35:36
Speaker 3: talked about this before, and we mentioned it in some
35:38
Speaker 3: case just about every show, but just with about a
35:41
Speaker 3: minute left out there, if somebody's out there sort of
35:43
Speaker 3: on the edge, you know they they've tried, they know
35:46
Speaker 3: they need to get going with something more serious in retirement.
35:48
Speaker 3: They have some money, maybe sitting in savings or maybe
35:51
Speaker 3: they're not even there yet. They need to try to
35:53
Speaker 3: start putting some money away so they could get there.
35:54
Speaker 3: We had a call, we had a textra last week
35:57
Speaker 3: that was like, Hey, what's what's the entry fee? What
35:59
Speaker 3: do I what do I need to make in order
36:00
Speaker 3: to even be managed? There is none. So if you're
36:02
Speaker 3: at the if you're at the basement and you're looking
36:04
Speaker 3: to get started the next if if you didn't start
36:07
Speaker 3: back when you started, the next best time to start
36:08
Speaker 3: is now today and after that is tomorrow. So you
36:11
Speaker 3: need all you need to do is pick up the
36:12
Speaker 3: phone and make the right call and get some help
36:16
Speaker 3: on these things, because it makes it a lot easier
36:18
Speaker 3: in life. We have a professional that's helping you with
36:20
Speaker 3: this stuff.
36:21
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I do ten minute free introductory phone calls
36:25
Speaker 5: all the time, so you can give us a call
36:27
Speaker 5: at the office.
36:27
Speaker 4: You can get scheduled.
36:29
Speaker 5: Online however you're comfortable getting it set up. It's a
36:33
Speaker 5: very easy way to wade into something that maybe you're
36:38
Speaker 5: not familiar with. Us a quick phone call, I can
36:42
Speaker 5: answer some amazing questions and come up with the steps
36:48
Speaker 5: that we need to take next.
36:49
Speaker 4: It's free of charge.
36:51
Speaker 5: You get to know one another and get what's a
36:53
Speaker 5: good entry point.
36:54
Speaker 3: That's great stuff, but it's fourth Avenue Financial dot com
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Speaker 3: three z are four seven four six seven nine seven
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Speaker 3: seven threes are four seve be four six seven nine
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Speaker 3: seven seven lists located downtown Charles and one seveny Court Street.
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Speaker 3: John thinks a bunch. You'll see you about here next week,
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Speaker 3: all right, christ have a great day everyone on five
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Speaker 3: eight W.
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Speaker 2: C HS.
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Speaker 8: W C H S A W two four three d
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Speaker 8: R F M Charlestown, W two, A three, a Q
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Speaker 8: Cross Lanes, a w VRC media station.
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Speaker 2: We're proud to live here too,