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Is Las Vegas done being America's playground? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
1:06
Speaker 1: Zaith and Mike Armstraw, Chuck.
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Speaker 2: Mike and Tucker with you here, and we got markets
1:14
Speaker 2: staging a broad based rally to hopefully close out the week.
1:18
Speaker 2: Here we got the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the
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Speaker 2: Dow in the biz it's up one hundred and sixty
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Speaker 2: two points, the S and P five hundreds up forty one,
1:27
Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq is up one hundred and sixty six.
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Speaker 2: So again, all three major US indices are in the
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Speaker 2: green today, so that's always fun. Tenure US Treasury selling
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Speaker 2: off very, very modestly, up three point seven basis points
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Speaker 2: to four point two eight one. And so you got
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Speaker 2: interest rates moving just a touch higher, but nothing huge,
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Speaker 2: nothing crazy. On the oil side of things, West Texas
1:50
Speaker 2: Intermediate down twenty nine cents a barrel to sixty three
1:53
Speaker 2: dollars and fifty nine cents. A lot of chatter come
1:55
Speaker 2: in the last couple of days about US Russia, Ukraine,
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Speaker 2: maybe some kind of ceasefire potentially coming together. I take
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Speaker 2: all this with a grain of salt, because you know,
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Speaker 2: we've kind of seen this before, but maybe maybe this
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Speaker 2: time is different. But some chatter that that could be
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Speaker 2: happening as soon as the next week so we'll see
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Speaker 2: if we get any meaningful progress there. It would obviously
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Speaker 2: be a great thing if we were able to see that.
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Speaker 2: And on gold, we've got gold up thirty six dollars
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Speaker 2: and eighty cents an ounce to thirty four ninety and
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Speaker 2: fifty cents, kind of getting into the range where gold's
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Speaker 2: topped out a couple times over the last six months
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Speaker 2: or so. We'll see if it's able to bust through,
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Speaker 2: or if it runs out of scheme again and moves
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Speaker 2: back down. Anything catching your eye, Michael H No, I
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Speaker 2: think you've very well covered it. I had one other
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Speaker 2: thing that I saw this morning. This is from a
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Speaker 2: tweet from someone by the name of Jonathan Mays or Maze,
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Speaker 2: I don't know. It also could be Jonathan. I don't
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Speaker 2: know how the pronunciation is. But in any case, uh
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Speaker 2: US limited service chain same store sales from last quarter,
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Speaker 2: so think fast food and equivalent, like not fast food
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Speaker 2: and equivalent, but not sit down. So limited service refers
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Speaker 2: to counter service only like not you know, sit down service.
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Speaker 2: McDonald's up two point five percent, Starbucks down two, Taco
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Speaker 2: Bell up four, Wendy's down three to six, Burger King
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Speaker 2: up one five Domino's up three four, Chipotle down four,
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Speaker 2: Pizza Hut down five, KFC down five, Popeyees down point nine,
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Speaker 2: Jack in the Box down seven point one. Del Taco
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Speaker 2: down two point two, Papa John's up one. Dutch Brothers,
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Speaker 2: what do they sell? Dutch Brothers, A lot of demand
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Speaker 2: for them, up six point one percent, Sweet Green down
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Speaker 2: seven point one. Coffeelly Dutch Brothers is coffee correct? Okay?
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Speaker 2: Great pot Belly up three to six. Overall, kind of
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Speaker 2: a middling quarter. And across the spectrum, you know, there's
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Speaker 2: not a ton in common with the person who shops
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Speaker 2: repeatedly at Starbucks with the person who is going to
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Speaker 2: Pizza Pizza Hut. You know, they're different demos. So a
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Speaker 2: few bright spots, you know, McDonald's at two point five,
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Speaker 2: Taco Bell at four. Okay, Like there's a couple good
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Speaker 2: things there, but by and large, kind of downbeat across
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Speaker 2: most of that. Just underwhelming. I think It's not horrible horrible,
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Speaker 2: but underwhelming, I think is the number that I will
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Speaker 2: say there. And I was looking for you know, this,
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Speaker 2: this data all in one place, So I'm glad that
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Speaker 2: and Jonathan put it together just because I was curious
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Speaker 2: again not horrible, but again, there's a lot of declines
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Speaker 2: in same store sales, which is not something that you
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Speaker 2: want to be seeing. The other piece that I found
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Speaker 2: interesting on this Wendy's on their earnings call, they indicated
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Speaker 2: that breakfast is the fastest weakening part of their sales
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Speaker 2: menu right now.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, because it sucks.
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Speaker 2: It's not just them. McDonald said the same thing. What's that?
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Speaker 2: So the two takes that I've heard, and I don't
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Speaker 2: know which one I buy. The two takes that I've
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Speaker 2: heard are if employment's weakening, people don't go and get
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Speaker 2: breakfast on the way to work. But I don't really
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Speaker 2: buy that employment is weakening that much, you know, Like
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Speaker 2: I'm not really buying that. The other is, hey, if
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Speaker 2: you're having your you know, your budget eaten into by
5:22
Speaker 2: higher costs, the easiest thing to cut out is going
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Speaker 2: out for breakfast.
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Speaker 4: I was gonna say, yeah, making breakfast at home is
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Speaker 4: among the easiest things that you can do.
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Speaker 2: So those those are the cases that I've seen there.
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Speaker 2: But again, I just I found this interesting just because
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Speaker 2: I hadn't seen the data all in one place, so
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Speaker 2: that was good to see. There. The BLS can't be
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Speaker 2: replaced by the private sector. This from Claudia sam who
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Speaker 2: has the some Rule named after her. She is a
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Speaker 2: former economist at the Federal Reserve, and basically what she
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Speaker 2: lays out in this piece is that look, as they
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Speaker 2: try to, you know, get additional data from private sources,
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Speaker 2: it's not as easy to do that as it is
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Speaker 2: from government data for a number of reasons. What was
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Speaker 2: she outlining.
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Speaker 4: Here, So it's taken off a comment from Ray Dalio
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Speaker 4: who is criticizing the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and and
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Speaker 4: you know their methodology and you know, antiquated systems and
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Speaker 4: just their ability to properly gather the data. Her main
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Speaker 4: point is, I think a sound one.
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Speaker 2: Business.
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Speaker 4: Private businesses are beholden to their shareholders, and you don't
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Speaker 4: want them to produce data that we rely on for
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Speaker 4: setting government policy.
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Speaker 2: I think it. I don't think it goes beyond that, right, Like,
6:43
Speaker 2: you don't.
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Speaker 4: Want a private company to be producing the data that
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Speaker 4: determines what somebody's cost of living adjustment is on Social Security.
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Speaker 4: You don't want a private company producing the data that
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Speaker 4: determines the interest rate on Treasury bonds.
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Speaker 2: You want that.
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Speaker 4: I'm not much of a big government person, but this
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Speaker 4: is one area where I think you do want the
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Speaker 4: federal government to be the one measuring this stuff and
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Speaker 4: actually checking it. That's the entire foundation of the trust
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Speaker 4: in some of the systems is that it is not
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Speaker 4: done by a private corporation that has its own self interest.
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Speaker 2: So I think you can cut that both ways. Like
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Speaker 2: there's obviously with some of the changes that were made
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Speaker 2: to the CPI in the last forty years, you could say, hey,
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Speaker 2: this is you know, a reason why Social Security benefits
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Speaker 2: aren't rising as quickly as they would have been otherwise
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Speaker 2: is because they've changed, you know, methodology in order to
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Speaker 2: do so. So I think that can cut both ways
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Speaker 2: to a certain extent.
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Speaker 4: Agreed, But I don't think somebody changed the methodology at
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Speaker 4: the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the express intent of lowering.
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Speaker 2: Oh no, they did. They specifically moved to a different
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Speaker 2: CPI index in order to do that to cut the inflation, Yes,
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Speaker 2: so that the inflation adjustments would be smaller. Now it's
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Speaker 2: not you know, one percent smaller. You talk talking about
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Speaker 2: you know, tens of a percent that might add up
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Speaker 2: over time. But it was absolutely the intent of of
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Speaker 2: why they did this. The the big thing that I
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Speaker 2: look at on this is I'll use China as an example.
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Speaker 2: Can we all agree that China has not real government
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Speaker 2: economic statistics, and when they are real and the data
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Speaker 2: moves the way they don't want, they get rid of them. Yes,
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Speaker 2: we've seen this. The one with a few years ago
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Speaker 2: is when youth unemployment hit like twenty one or twenty
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Speaker 2: two percent, they discontinue the data series, and then magically,
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Speaker 2: six months it came back at two thirds the rate
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Speaker 2: at like fourteen percent, And clearly all those people just
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Speaker 2: must have gotten jobs over the summer like they had
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Speaker 2: to obviously. So if we look at China just as
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Speaker 2: an example, China's government run statistics are terrible, so we
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Speaker 2: can't really get any direct data from China on what's
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Speaker 2: going on in their economy. And so this is how
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Speaker 2: you into this stuff about like, hey, how high are
9:02
Speaker 2: smog levels around shaying Hi? Is a you know, a
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Speaker 2: predictive for activity? What's electricity demand in uh Beijing? You know,
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Speaker 2: like these.
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Speaker 4: Basically rely on foreign companies doing business in China right
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Speaker 4: to give you hints about the actual state of the
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Speaker 4: economy there.
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Speaker 2: Which is not really a great way to fly. You're
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Speaker 2: kind of flying blind. And the two places where this
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Speaker 2: becomes problematic is number one, like you do have an
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Speaker 2: awful lot of government programs that do rely on these statistics.
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Speaker 2: If anyone listening is on Social Security, you get a
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Speaker 2: cost of living increase that is based on a CPI
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Speaker 2: index calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It might
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Speaker 2: be right, it might be wrong, but you know how
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Speaker 2: it's calculated, You see what goes into it, and you
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Speaker 2: can plan accordingly.
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Speaker 4: And I'd be willing to say that I would not
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Speaker 4: were Io Security beneficiary. I would not, for instance, want
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Speaker 4: Tesla calculating making that calculation.
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Speaker 2: You don't want any private company that's in charge of
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Speaker 2: that calcul like it's it's something where it fundamentally a
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Speaker 2: is not going to be something that they can do
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Speaker 2: in the same way to begin with. But the other piece,
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Speaker 2: just if you're looking at this one risk that you have,
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Speaker 2: what if that company goes out of business and you
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Speaker 2: lose all the data you know, like what if they
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Speaker 2: no longer exist? The US government for better or for worse,
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Speaker 2: it can't go out of business. It might be good,
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Speaker 2: it might be bad. They don't go out of business,
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Speaker 2: they're there, So I think in looking at this. I'm
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Speaker 2: a big believer at any point in time, you want
10:37
Speaker 2: to look at a whole bunch of different indices, some private,
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Speaker 2: some public, in order to make determinations on what's going on.
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Speaker 2: But it's it's so that you can make better economic
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Speaker 2: decisions in the aggregate, and so that you can know
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Speaker 2: and understand what's going on with the economy before you do.
10:55
Speaker 2: So you don't go talk to anyone who runs a business.
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Speaker 2: You don't simply go win and say, hey, this looks
11:01
Speaker 2: like a good place to build a restaurant without doing
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Speaker 2: a whole bunch of research. And some of that research
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Speaker 2: is private sector data you might get, you know, credit card,
11:10
Speaker 2: you know, transaction data from a provider or something like that.
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Speaker 2: But some of it also might be, hey, I need
11:16
Speaker 2: to go to you know, the local government, the city
11:19
Speaker 2: or state and figure out what's the population in this area.
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Speaker 2: I might need to go to the city or state
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Speaker 2: to find you know, average incomes in this area. And
11:29
Speaker 2: granted that's a state government but not federal. But ultimately
11:32
Speaker 2: you're still relying on a combination of public and private
11:35
Speaker 2: sources in order to make decisions. And if the public
11:37
Speaker 2: ones either go down in quality significantly or cease to exist.
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Speaker 2: It becomes harder for businesses and individuals to make those decisions.
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Speaker 4: Then, yeah, I get that it's nuanced because I think
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Speaker 4: both of us have expressed, you know, interest in some
11:52
Speaker 4: things being privatized that the government currently does. I just
11:54
Speaker 4: don't think the independent statistics that you use to measure
11:57
Speaker 4: the economy is one of those in my list.
12:00
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we come back,
12:02
Speaker 2: we've got what do we have? Oh, here we go,
12:06
Speaker 2: We've got trivia and then we're talking Vegas baby.
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Speaker 3: All right, let's do a little bit of trivia here
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13:54
Speaker 2: Las Vegas the city in Nevada uh they experienced an
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Speaker 2: eleven point three percent drop in visitors during the month
14:04
Speaker 2: of June and what works out to four hundred thousand
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Speaker 2: fewer visitors than they saw during June of last year,
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Speaker 2: and it is the sixth consecutive month this year. Now
14:15
Speaker 2: that Vegas is seeing a decline here now, A lot
14:18
Speaker 2: of people like to point out that Vegas. I have
14:21
Speaker 2: a couple buddies who are you know, big travelers out
14:23
Speaker 2: that way. They go there on a pretty regular basis,
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Speaker 2: and you know, they like to point out, hey, Vegas
14:29
Speaker 2: is kind of a bell weather for the US economy.
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Speaker 2: When everyone feels flushed there, you know, traveling there and
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Speaker 2: it's jammed. When it's you know a little slower in
14:37
Speaker 2: the economy, things slow down there pretty quickly because you know,
14:41
Speaker 2: disposable income that gets used there. You know, no one's
14:44
Speaker 2: forced to go to Vegas. You know, we don't make
14:46
Speaker 2: you go there. And so ultimately the thinking is, hey,
14:50
Speaker 2: if Vegas is slowing, is it problematic for the US economy?
14:54
Speaker 2: I just wonder if things are different this year, and
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Speaker 2: so is this more just reflecting the broader travel slow
15:03
Speaker 2: down but to a greater extent, and ultimately the US
15:06
Speaker 2: economy is still chugging along, more slowly, but still chugging.
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Speaker 4: Nonetheless, Yeah, I don't have an answer for your check.
15:14
Speaker 4: I mean, I wrote down a few things, right, I mean,
15:15
Speaker 4: we talked yesterday about the prevalence of online gambling, and
15:18
Speaker 4: so with the spread of gambling generally. I mean five
15:23
Speaker 4: years ago, there were no casinos in Massachusetts, right within
15:26
Speaker 4: five years ago.
15:27
Speaker 2: How when it was seven hour I think it was
15:28
Speaker 2: like twenty eighteen or nineteen. Now it's a decade ago
15:31
Speaker 2: there were no casinos.
15:32
Speaker 4: But you know, I have to say, all of the
15:35
Speaker 4: excuses that I could think of to me don't really
15:38
Speaker 4: make up for an eleven percent dropping visitors. I mean,
15:42
Speaker 4: if that's persistent, then I'm not sure I'm willing to
15:46
Speaker 4: blame it on anything other than a weak economy. Granted,
15:49
Speaker 4: you know, you have one June where it just drops,
15:51
Speaker 4: and that could be a blip on the radar. But
15:53
Speaker 4: let's say you get measurements for July, August, and September
15:56
Speaker 4: and they're all more than ten percent.
15:57
Speaker 2: Off year over year.
15:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's probably more than just oh, you know, you
16:02
Speaker 4: can gamble on your phone. That seems like a bigger
16:04
Speaker 4: problem to me for Vegas if that's the case.
16:06
Speaker 2: Tucker, you get any thoughts on this?
16:10
Speaker 4: Well, I thought so that I can probably get a
16:12
Speaker 4: deal on going to Vegas, But that's literally apparently you can't.
16:14
Speaker 2: Actually apparently Vegas is ridiculously expensive.
16:18
Speaker 3: Now, well, no, I was literally just looking that up, Mike,
16:20
Speaker 3: because I was thinking of my brother in law's bachelor party.
16:25
Speaker 3: I want to say it was eight years ago, somewhere
16:28
Speaker 3: in that range. And I paid, And this was in
16:30
Speaker 3: the month of August, mind you, I paid.
16:32
Speaker 2: Beautiful time to be in the desk.
16:34
Speaker 4: Oh.
16:34
Speaker 3: I've done Vegas in July and it's not great. Oh yeah,
16:37
Speaker 3: it was hell not great. But nonetheless, a flight to
16:41
Speaker 3: Vegas was six hundred and fifty bucks round trip from Boston.
16:45
Speaker 3: I'm looking at it now for that same week, and
16:48
Speaker 3: I believe it was the week of like August twenty
16:50
Speaker 3: fifth or something, one hundred ninety six bucks.
16:54
Speaker 2: I've heard that it's just like the hotels and the
16:57
Speaker 2: food has gotten way more expensive. Though. Yeah, it used
17:00
Speaker 2: to be, Hey, you can get there, you know, relatively cheaply.
17:04
Speaker 2: You can stay there cheaply because they just want you
17:05
Speaker 2: to come in and gamble, exactly. And I've heard that
17:09
Speaker 2: anecdotally prices have moved up a lot on the strip
17:11
Speaker 2: these days. But I don't know. I haven't been to
17:15
Speaker 2: Vegas in.
17:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't been like six years, somewhere in that range.
17:20
Speaker 2: It might be like eight for me. I think like
17:22
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen maybe.
17:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've always wanted to go back there and have
17:26
Speaker 3: like a foodie experience because when I went out there
17:29
Speaker 3: was for two bachelor parties and we would just like
17:31
Speaker 3: survive on a slice of pizza and bud lights and
17:34
Speaker 3: as one does.
17:37
Speaker 2: So I want to go back there. Yesterday's bacon, let
17:40
Speaker 2: me eat that.
17:41
Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I'm seeing some cheap hotel rooms
17:43
Speaker 4: right now.
17:45
Speaker 2: What a Jym's hotel?
17:47
Speaker 4: They're always Luxor hotel and casino sixty bucks a night, Okay,
17:52
Speaker 4: the funt to blue is only two seventy seven on
17:55
Speaker 4: the weekend or weekday.
17:56
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Labor day weekend, Wow, no one works?
18:00
Speaker 2: Then it's labor day. Yeah, you know, to try to
18:04
Speaker 2: get a drink? Then what are you gonna do? You know? So,
18:07
Speaker 2: I don't know entirely what to make of this. I think.
18:11
Speaker 2: I also think the other piece that's mentioned in here
18:13
Speaker 2: is you get a lot of international travel that goes
18:15
Speaker 2: to Vegas, and maybe some of that's pulled back and
18:17
Speaker 2: it's not reflective of the broader US economy, right yep, Yes,
18:21
Speaker 2: so it is a good like Vegas is such a
18:24
Speaker 2: unique place. I just don't know in this particular set
18:28
Speaker 2: of economic circumstances. Can you tell anything from it?
18:31
Speaker 3: Do you think a small factor is kind of piggybacking
18:34
Speaker 3: off of our conversation yesterday in terms of gambling just
18:37
Speaker 3: being on your phone, like do people have to go
18:40
Speaker 3: to people really don't have to go to Vegas.
18:42
Speaker 4: I'm willing to accept that, Tucker, but I'm not willing
18:45
Speaker 4: to accept that it represents an eleven percent drop in Vegas.
18:47
Speaker 3: Demanda, Yeah, fair, I'm just saying it's a small factor, right.
18:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, But let's talk about the three groups that go
18:53
Speaker 2: to Vegas. Bachelor parties and bachelorette parties. Just people are
18:57
Speaker 2: their twenties, okay, business travelers for conventions, and a bunch
19:02
Speaker 2: of older people going to see with money shows, right
19:06
Speaker 2: yeph The group in the twenties is the one that
19:09
Speaker 2: I look at and I say, they don't need to
19:11
Speaker 2: go anymore. They can either gamble on sports or they
19:14
Speaker 2: could buy zero data expiration options in their brokerage account
19:18
Speaker 2: and have fun doing that. I guess, like that's the
19:22
Speaker 2: other one. Sure, your convention still happened. There's only one place.
19:24
Speaker 2: I don't even know who plays Vegas anymore, But whoever's
19:28
Speaker 2: playing Vegas there's only one place that you can see.
19:30
Speaker 2: Then there's only one sphere. I don't know. Quick break,
19:33
Speaker 2: We got the trivia answer in Wall Street Watch.
19:35
Speaker 5: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
19:43
Speaker 5: Every day, it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:47
Speaker 5: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
19:52
Speaker 5: look at what's moving markets so far today. Right here
19:56
Speaker 5: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:58
Speaker 3: Markets are closing out the week in rally mode. Gold
20:01
Speaker 3: is seeing much attention after The Financial Times reported that
20:05
Speaker 3: the US imposed levies on one kilo bars, which would
20:08
Speaker 3: mark a blow to Switzerland, a major refining hub. Right now,
20:12
Speaker 3: the Dow is up by two tenths of one percent,
20:15
Speaker 3: or about one hundred points, higher S and P five
20:18
Speaker 3: hundreds up over half a percent or thirty four points,
20:21
Speaker 3: Nasdaq is up seven tenths of one percent or one
20:24
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty four points, and the Russell two thousand
20:27
Speaker 3: is up by two tenths of one percent. Ten year
20:30
Speaker 3: treasure reeled up four basis points at four point two
20:32
Speaker 3: eighty seven percent, and crude oil flat at the moment,
20:36
Speaker 3: trading at sixty three dollars in eighty cents a barrel.
20:39
Speaker 3: Rocket Maker firefly Aerospace had a successful IPO yesterday as
20:44
Speaker 3: it made its debut trading on the Nasdaq, surging thirty
20:48
Speaker 3: four percent. However, that stock is giving back thirteen percent today. Meanwhile,
20:53
Speaker 3: Sweet Green share is dropping more than twenty five percent
20:56
Speaker 3: after the salad chain cut its twenty twenty five outlook
20:59
Speaker 3: for the second quarter in a row. The company said
21:02
Speaker 3: it saw issues with its loyalty program, weak consumer sentiment,
21:06
Speaker 3: tariff headwinds in store challenges. Sticking with the restaurant space
21:10
Speaker 3: where Wendy stock is up two percent despite a lower
21:14
Speaker 3: full year profit forecast after its second quarter profit topped
21:18
Speaker 3: analyst expectations despite headwinds in its US business. The company
21:23
Speaker 3: cited a dynamic consumer environment and more challenging competition elsewhere.
21:29
Speaker 3: Trade Desk dropping thirty nine percent after Bank of America
21:33
Speaker 3: and Moffat Nathanson downgraded the stock, even after the tech
21:36
Speaker 3: company had strong earnings. However, its CEO warned the during
21:40
Speaker 3: the company's earnings call that some of the world's largest
21:44
Speaker 3: brands are absolutely facing pressure from tariffs and inflation, and
21:49
Speaker 3: Pinterest shares falling eight percent after the social media company
21:52
Speaker 3: posted better than expected quarterly revenue, but its adjusted earnings
21:56
Speaker 3: per share disappointed. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall
22:01
Speaker 3: Street Watch. And in the previous segment, we asked you
22:04
Speaker 3: the tribute question name one of the two actors Dustin
22:06
Speaker 3: Hoffman shared an apartment with back in the early sixties. Well,
22:11
Speaker 3: the two actors were Gene Hackman and Robert Duval. Jim
22:15
Speaker 3: and Maine is our winner today taking on a Financial
22:17
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22:20
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22:22
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22:26
Speaker 2: Mike, you want to talk a little bit about uh
22:29
Speaker 2: ALS alternative investments in four one case if you want to, Nam,
22:34
Speaker 2: I'm good. We discussed this. Well, now we have to Well, no, Tucker,
22:42
Speaker 2: you put him in the stack. I said, yeah, I
22:45
Speaker 2: said do what you want here. That's fine. I know
22:47
Speaker 2: you said do what you want, but this is here,
22:49
Speaker 2: so like I don't know, it's here, go for it. Then, Well, the.
22:53
Speaker 4: President basically signed an executive order asking ARISA to clarify
22:59
Speaker 4: some stuff on this. It doesn't mean you're gonna have
23:01
Speaker 4: alternative investments in your fourro one case tomorrow.
23:03
Speaker 2: I want to talk about it like that, Like we already.
23:05
Speaker 2: I want to talk about like is this good or bad? Okay? Oh,
23:09
Speaker 2: that's what one of these pieces is. It's like is
23:11
Speaker 2: this good or bad? All right? If you want the
23:13
Speaker 2: bad argument.
23:15
Speaker 4: Deal making in private equity has been under cline for
23:17
Speaker 4: like four years in a row, and now they're turning
23:19
Speaker 4: to four oh one k's as a possible source of
23:21
Speaker 4: new funds.
23:22
Speaker 2: Always get worried that you're gonna be holding the bag
23:24
Speaker 2: when someone talks about democratizing access. Yeah, why do they
23:27
Speaker 2: want to give you access now? You know, like what
23:31
Speaker 2: they've kept it away from you for so long? Why
23:34
Speaker 2: now are they wanting to give you access? So that
23:37
Speaker 2: makes you wonder a little bit. Yeah, other things, Uh,
23:39
Speaker 2: there are only so many good alternative managers. It's just
23:43
Speaker 2: like any other business. You look at real estate, and
23:47
Speaker 2: there are some people that are really good at managing it.
23:49
Speaker 2: There's some people that are really bad at it. And
23:51
Speaker 2: so given that, how do you know that the good
23:55
Speaker 2: ones are gonna make it down to the people that
23:56
Speaker 2: are putting in twenty five dollars you know, every couple
23:59
Speaker 2: of weeks, as opposed to hey, here's one hundred million
24:02
Speaker 2: dollars for you to go invest in It's a lot
24:03
Speaker 2: easier to get one hundred million dollars once than build
24:06
Speaker 2: it through these little twenty five dollars deposits. So how
24:08
Speaker 2: do you know that you're actually gonna have decent options
24:11
Speaker 2: in your plan?
24:13
Speaker 4: So, to be fair to remember's going to play the
24:16
Speaker 4: opposite side of this for a moment. While I am
24:19
Speaker 4: certain there are private equity funds, good ones that do
24:21
Speaker 4: not want to attract small investors, part of the reason
24:24
Speaker 4: they have not gone for smaller investors is because the
24:27
Speaker 4: regulators have prevented them from doing so. There's been all
24:30
Speaker 4: sorts of rules for years now when it comes to
24:32
Speaker 4: alternative investments in private equity in particular, why.
24:36
Speaker 2: Are they pushing to change it now exactly?
24:38
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I mean, fair question, but you know, arguably
24:42
Speaker 4: they've been pushing to change it for a while, and
24:44
Speaker 4: they faced a regulator and an administration that has been
24:48
Speaker 4: unwilling to budge on it. And this one is so
24:51
Speaker 4: I think you could take that argument that, yeah, this
24:54
Speaker 4: just wasn't going to happen under the Biden administration, even
24:56
Speaker 4: though the funds wanted it back then and wanted it
24:58
Speaker 4: back during Obama, and it just couldn't get pushed over
25:01
Speaker 4: the finish line at that point. But I'd be I
25:05
Speaker 4: guess my point would be I would be highly suspicious,
25:08
Speaker 4: like you.
25:08
Speaker 2: Are, good potential things. You could potentially get access to
25:12
Speaker 2: asset classes with a little bit less correlation to other markets,
25:15
Speaker 2: so they could prevent you know, you from seeing as
25:18
Speaker 2: big as swings in any particular year. Potentially the downside
25:21
Speaker 2: to that, hey, if markets are absolutely ripping a lot
25:23
Speaker 2: of times, private investments tend to lag a little bit
25:26
Speaker 2: on that side. And so do you sit there and wonder, gee,
25:28
Speaker 2: why am I doing this in a market you know
25:30
Speaker 2: that might be up thirty percent for the year. It
25:32
Speaker 2: minds you know, hey, why is this holding only up ten? Like?
25:35
Speaker 2: What gives? So those are things that you can consider
25:38
Speaker 2: on this. Ultimately, the devil's going to be in the
25:40
Speaker 2: details on this, and not just in the broader you know,
25:43
Speaker 2: regulation and not legislation. But how do custodians and how
25:49
Speaker 2: do plan managers decide what they're going to allow inside?
25:55
Speaker 2: Do they have caps on how much of your retirement
25:58
Speaker 2: assets can be in alternatives or will they allow you
26:01
Speaker 2: to put one hundred percent in them if possible? What
26:04
Speaker 2: kind of liquidity do you get because normally liquidity is
26:06
Speaker 2: pretty bad in alts. Is it something that is monthly, quarterly?
26:11
Speaker 2: Is it annually? How does that all work? Yeah, I
26:13
Speaker 2: need to take my RMD and all of it's in
26:14
Speaker 2: a private refund. Right, These are things we don't have
26:17
Speaker 2: great answers to now, and so on those items, I'm
26:20
Speaker 2: not going to be overly critical because we don't know.
26:23
Speaker 2: It's just we're gonna have to see how it plays out.
26:25
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26:29
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26:38
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26:51
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26:55
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27:01
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27:04
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27:06
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27:10
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27:13
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27:16
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27:18
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28:03
Speaker 4: Mike.
28:04
Speaker 2: In the last segment, we talked a little bit about Vegas.
28:06
Speaker 2: Here's the counterpoint to it. Live Nation reporting their earnings
28:10
Speaker 2: and indicating that their revenue is up sixteen percent from
28:13
Speaker 2: the period the same period in last year and concert
28:17
Speaker 2: revenue specifically up nineteen percent, and so this could be
28:22
Speaker 2: part of the answer, which is, yeah, people aren't traveling
28:25
Speaker 2: as much. Maybe they are doing more things locally as
28:28
Speaker 2: their entertainment spend.
28:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's tough to make sense that, right. Like you
28:34
Speaker 4: would think if we are in a tough economy, then
28:36
Speaker 4: you would see both of these trends getting worse. Concerts
28:40
Speaker 4: and Vegas travel and one's doing just fine. The other
28:44
Speaker 4: one is suck and wins. So I have a pretty
28:47
Speaker 4: tough time differentiating between those two.
28:49
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we return, we
28:52
Speaker 2: are going to be joined by Paul Lamonica from Barons,
28:57
Speaker 2: and Paul is going to be talking to us about
29:00
Speaker 2: right after this.
29:02
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Speaker 1: is the Financial Exchange Radio Network ladies and gentlemen the weekend.
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Speaker 2: As promised, We're not joined by Paul Amonica from Barons
30:11
Speaker 2: here to talk a little bit about Broadcom. Paul, how
30:15
Speaker 2: is it that Broadcom somehow gets left out of the
30:17
Speaker 2: conversation for the Magnificent Seven, despite you know, being the
30:23
Speaker 2: sixth biggest company by market cap in the S and
30:25
Speaker 2: P five hundred.
30:27
Speaker 6: Yeah, no, that's a great question. It's worth more than
30:29
Speaker 6: Tesla right now. And broadcomstock has done better than all
30:35
Speaker 6: of the Magnificent seven stocks except in Vidia. You know,
30:37
Speaker 6: Microsoft and Meta have had great years, but in Vidia,
30:41
Speaker 6: excuse me, Broadcom is up more than thirty percent, So
30:44
Speaker 6: I've feel quipped that maybe we should you know, rename
30:47
Speaker 6: rename it the Grade eight or the Exceptional eight. But
30:51
Speaker 6: you know, putting all of that aside, I mean, obviously
30:53
Speaker 6: Wall Street loves to have certain monikers. I mean we
30:57
Speaker 6: used to have the fang stocks and now at the
30:59
Speaker 6: mag seven. Broadcom make no mistake, is a legitimate you know,
31:04
Speaker 6: chip powerhouse, you know, benefiting from strong demand for artificial intelligence.
31:11
Speaker 6: You know, one person that I quoted in the story
31:15
Speaker 6: joke that they're kind of the poor man's in video,
31:19
Speaker 6: you know, because they don't have as dominant a market
31:21
Speaker 6: shares and video does. But you know, you look at
31:24
Speaker 6: the stock, it's definitely not poor in terms of its valuation.
31:27
Speaker 6: It's trading at a premium doing video.
31:29
Speaker 2: Right now, What's like the specific niche that they fill
31:33
Speaker 2: in that AI ecosystem? Why are they important to it? Like,
31:36
Speaker 2: what do they do that's so special?
31:38
Speaker 6: Yeah, they have AI chips that are used and bought
31:41
Speaker 6: by a lot of the hyperscalers. So companies like alphabet
31:47
Speaker 6: and Meta platforms are big customers. You know, I believe
31:52
Speaker 6: they have relationship you know, with Apple on some chips
31:57
Speaker 6: as well, So you know, they are just part of
31:59
Speaker 6: this water tech ecosystem, particularly with regards to all of
32:04
Speaker 6: those hyperscalers that is spending so much money on artificial
32:09
Speaker 6: intelligence technology right now. So they are, along with Nvidio,
32:13
Speaker 6: one of the big beneficiaries in a way that Intel
32:17
Speaker 6: is not. That's why Intel's a stock that's been struggling
32:21
Speaker 6: as of late, you know, and we've now seen some
32:23
Speaker 6: of the political pressure with some of the comments from
32:26
Speaker 6: the President about their CEO as well.
32:29
Speaker 2: So how come even with the performance that Broadcom has
32:32
Speaker 2: put together over the last four or five years, how
32:35
Speaker 2: come they get no love? Why can't they get into
32:37
Speaker 2: the Max seven? Why can't we make it the Elite eight?
32:39
Speaker 2: What's going on here?
32:41
Speaker 6: No, I mean it's a great question. I mean, to
32:43
Speaker 6: be fair, I mean it is all about just a
32:47
Speaker 6: silly Wall Street moniker that might be a little dated.
32:51
Speaker 6: I wouldn't go so far to say they get no love.
32:54
Speaker 2: The stock's up.
32:55
Speaker 6: More than thirty percent this year, trading at a pe
32:57
Speaker 6: of around you know, forty five or so times forward
33:01
Speaker 6: earnings estimates, So they are clearly beloved by investors. And
33:06
Speaker 6: you know, many analysts have you know, price targets on
33:11
Speaker 6: the stock that are you know, pretty bullish. As well.
33:17
Speaker 6: So this is not a company that is unloved.
33:21
Speaker 2: You know, forty four out.
33:22
Speaker 6: Of forty nine analysts have a buy on it. But
33:25
Speaker 6: as actually, as I pointed out in the story last week,
33:27
Speaker 6: the price target hasn't come up yet, so I think
33:31
Speaker 6: you might see analysts need to rush to raise their
33:33
Speaker 6: price targets, particularly when the company reports earnings again in September.
33:37
Speaker 6: Last check, the price target was below three hundred as
33:40
Speaker 6: the consensus. Even though analysts have a buy rating on
33:44
Speaker 6: the stock, stock's already over three hundred. So there's a
33:47
Speaker 6: bit of a disconnect there. If you love the stock
33:50
Speaker 6: right now, I think it's a buy, should go higher,
33:53
Speaker 6: but the price target's below where it's currently trading.
33:57
Speaker 2: Very good, Paul. We appreciate you joining us today. Thank
33:59
Speaker 2: you so much for the time, and I hope you
34:02
Speaker 2: have a great weekend. Sand you guys.
34:05
Speaker 6: Thanks a lot.
34:05
Speaker 2: That is Paul Lamonica talking about broad coom here, Mike,
34:09
Speaker 2: what do you think about that we're gonna rebrand, do
34:11
Speaker 2: a little elitat or is that too march madness?
34:15
Speaker 4: I mean we've gone from what were all the acronyms
34:19
Speaker 4: that we've had.
34:19
Speaker 2: For we went through fang fang. Yeah.
34:22
Speaker 4: Yeah, it'll probably shift at some point because it doesn't
34:25
Speaker 4: look like Tesla's doing much recently.
34:27
Speaker 2: Maybe do we just can you? Can you be kicked
34:30
Speaker 2: out of the mag seven?
34:31
Speaker 1: No?
34:31
Speaker 2: I think you have to rebrand it. You have to rebrand? Well,
34:34
Speaker 2: what if we just want a different seven? No? No,
34:38
Speaker 2: Super seven can't do it? No, okay, gotta do it.
34:42
Speaker 4: Did you guys already cover McDonald's and the adult Happy Meal?
34:48
Speaker 2: No, no idea what I'm talking about.
34:49
Speaker 4: Okay, So on August twelfth, McDonald's is reviving a bunch
34:54
Speaker 4: of different brands and putting out adult happy meals with
34:59
Speaker 4: mystery Shakes and all sorts of characters that you haven't
35:03
Speaker 4: heard from in a while, characters like who Michael, I forget,
35:07
Speaker 4: I've got a picture Hamburglar? Yeah, you got the Hamburglar
35:10
Speaker 4: in here? Grimace, Grimace is in here. They're going to
35:13
Speaker 4: be making cards. I think of these characters and Mystery Shake.
35:20
Speaker 4: While I do think that McDonald's is going to struggle
35:22
Speaker 4: to actually execute on this because the ice cream machine
35:26
Speaker 4: is gonna be down and all sorts of problems.
35:28
Speaker 2: This is going to drive traffic. People are going to
35:30
Speaker 2: be all over.
35:31
Speaker 4: This, you know, between Disney adults and everything else playing
35:34
Speaker 4: in nostalgia right now?
35:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, look out, well happy Gilmore too did. That was
35:38
Speaker 2: an objectively terrible but that's all you had to do,
35:39
Speaker 2: was all you had to do was sit there, and
35:42
Speaker 2: you were already subscribed to Netflix.
35:44
Speaker 4: I think that people are going to head to McDonald's
35:45
Speaker 4: after August twelfth to grab one of these things.
35:47
Speaker 2: How long are they going to be out there for.
35:49
Speaker 4: I don't have a date on it begins August twelfth.
35:52
Speaker 3: I don't know how waiting in mine. Yeah, it's a
35:55
Speaker 3: limited time. Yeah, sounds stupid me.
36:00
Speaker 2: Honestly, I wouldn't want it either. But I think that
36:03
Speaker 2: people are gonna be all over this adult happy meal.
36:06
Speaker 2: Feels tough to me.
36:08
Speaker 7: We'll say it feels at rush it. It feels a
36:13
Speaker 7: little too close to dressing yourself up as a baby. Okay,
36:20
Speaker 7: never heard of that one, But all right, exactly there's
36:23
Speaker 7: a reason why I don't know, just U doesn't doesn't
36:26
Speaker 7: quite quick for me. Speaking of which, this Wall Street
36:29
Speaker 7: Journal piece the homeowners who decided that having just one
36:33
Speaker 7: pool wasn't enough.
36:34
Speaker 2: I hate these people. The people are the reporters.
36:38
Speaker 4: So I'm trying people who cares about the millionaires that
36:42
Speaker 4: have two pools in their house? Like, no, I don't
36:45
Speaker 4: care about that. Why Wall Street Journal are you printing
36:48
Speaker 4: a story on it? Who cares to get people upset?
36:51
Speaker 4: To get people obsesssions accomplished?
36:54
Speaker 2: I guess. The other question is who lacks the self aware?
36:57
Speaker 2: I guess if you have two pools, do you generally
37:00
Speaker 2: lack the self awareness to not be interviewed about it? Yeah?
37:03
Speaker 2: Like you know, now.
37:07
Speaker 4: Super yachts with pools in them, like welcome to pool.
37:12
Speaker 4: People and their inordinate wealth make all sorts of stupid
37:15
Speaker 4: decisions and uh yeah, who cares?
37:19
Speaker 2: This is a dumb piece, like especially like reading some
37:23
Speaker 2: of the captions on the photos. Matthias Johnson's indoor pool
37:26
Speaker 2: has decorative dolphins.
37:28
Speaker 3: Oh good, Matthias is stupid dolphins in your pool?
37:32
Speaker 2: Beam?
37:32
Speaker 4: So here's what Wall Street Journal is playing into, though,
37:35
Speaker 4: is the immense interest that everybody has and seeing other
37:37
Speaker 4: people's homes. This is why Zillow is now like the
37:42
Speaker 4: if you track its visits and volumes to like a
37:45
Speaker 4: social media app, it's like the seventh in the world
37:47
Speaker 4: or something like that. So, yeah, people are fascinated with
37:50
Speaker 4: this stuff, and so I'm sure it's getting the clicks,
37:53
Speaker 4: but just give me a break.
37:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, would rather read about someone's private jets if
37:59
Speaker 2: they have a lot of money. Yeah, do you like this? Yeah,
38:02
Speaker 2: if you got two jets, triples are safe. Now now
38:05
Speaker 2: we're talking. What was it Jeff Immelt that had the
38:07
Speaker 2: backup jet when he was at GE in case the
38:09
Speaker 2: primary broke down. Boy, that's a blast from the past.
38:14
Speaker 2: We're done for the day, done for the week. Markets
38:16
Speaker 2: remain broadly positive. Have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.