Latest / The Curve / TCW4: Who might be the next Google and a (depressing) inflation update

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TCW4: Who might be the next Google and a (depressing) inflation update · The Curve

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  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weakly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
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  business and stock market tea.
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  And they're exactly what I needed to do, but it would take money to get there.
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  Show me the money!
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  Everyone should experience for a class at least once in their lives, and Annie shouldn't miss
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  out just because she can't afford it.
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  Help me, I'm poor.
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  How's that North?
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  Good. Up in the far North?
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  Far far North?
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  She got out just in time.
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  How long did it take you to drive from Auckland to where you are?
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  We left at 10.30 and got here at 5.
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  So quite a while.
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  But yeah, it wasn't due to traffic.
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  Thank goodness we had a foil drive because there were slips all over the roads.
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  I'm surprised you got out there to be honest.
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  Yeah, well we had friends two hours behind us that had to turn around.
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  They got the road got closed and they got deserted and that road had to slip.
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  So for those of you who don't know, Auckland had a pretty horrific weekend of rain
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  and the city went into a state of emergency and yeah, it was pretty horrific.
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  So we had 75% of summer's rain in one day, which is.
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  Is that how much it was?
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  A lot.
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  Yeah, so yeah, made it out and it's been beautiful weather up here and it's almost, I feel
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  like guilty.
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  I feel like guilty posting pictures of the beach itself because I'm like, oh my gosh, but
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  I must say it's been weird and sad to see all of the stuff on social media like how
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  affected so many families and people have been.
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  So it's like an apocalypse, like there's just abandoned cars on the streets and stuff.
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  So yeah, it's pretty.
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  I stayed here at VIX House on Friday night and in the morning, she'd send a friend round
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  to check on her house, just to make sure it wasn't submerged in water.
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  I was on the toilet and she was looking through the window and I was like, had the door open
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  because I didn't think there was going to be no one peeking through the window and I was
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  like sitting there, talking to us on your toilet, I was like, oh my god, so strict, like
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  not good.
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  But hey, enough about our weekends, I know, it's wrapped the shit up, it's like the whole
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  of the Curve Weekly.
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  It's just our weekend.
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  Yeah, so we had another really good week in the stock market last week.
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  The S&P 500 was up 2.3% and the NASDAQ was up 3.
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  So I feel like I'm constantly saying this, but every week's a good week.
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  Oh, hey, don't complain, it was the opposite for a long time.
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  Exactly, but this is the second-best January since the century, so for the last 100 years
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  that we've seen.
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  So we're looking like we're going to have a pretty good year if the history shows.
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  Yeah, there's a lot of, there's a lot of statistics around, if January's good, then usually
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  the whole year's good.
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  But again, you know, stock market, you never really know what's going to happen.
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  So we're supposed to have a Santa rally, which is when December is usually a really good
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  month on the stock market and it wasn't.
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  So I say history shows, but history can change, we can change history.
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  But there is lots going on in the stock market at the moment, if you listen to the Curve Weekly
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  last week, you would have heard I say that it's reporting season, which means that companies
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  have to report in the US, have to report their financial results for the three months
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  enders December.
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  So we're still seeing all that come through and it was a really big week last week of announcements.
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  We had Visa, Massacard and American Express, all released their results.
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  And why they're interesting, what's really good indication in terms of spending a lot
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  of travel, where people travel, they spend a lot and that generates fees for Visa, Massacard
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  and American Express.
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  They were seeing this huge resurgence as people began to travel again.
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  So they had really, really good results.
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  So American Express was up 13% last week, I think, which is quite crazy in one week.
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  So.
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  Wow.
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  That's so.
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  Yeah.
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  So we had all those payments companies, are you invested in any payment companies?
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  I wasn't invested in Visa and Massacard, but I'm not anymore, but they do have some
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  pretty, like, if you think about how many people have a Visa or Massacard, you know,
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  like you, whether it's a debit card or a credit card, you really kind of have to have
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  one in order to be able to pay for things these days and everyone's moving digitally.
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  And I think we've said before, there's still around 70 to 80% of the world's transactions
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  that are done through cash.
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  So there is still such a huge, you know, league of growth for those companies as people still
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  convert to paying digitally or with card.
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  But we also had Microsoft, good old Microsoft out last week as well.
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  It was up about 3% for the week.
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  They had a really good result, their cloud products, which is called Azure, is going really
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  well.
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  And fuck off, it's called Azure.
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  Azure.
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  Yeah.
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  What is that?
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  I don't know.
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  Oh God, you need to have a word to the team, I think.
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  It's one of their chop investors.
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  There was probably teams and teams of people that came up with that name and they're like,
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  you know what?
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  Azure.
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  We will call it Azure.
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  One key thing for Microsoft's results and an announcement that they've made recently
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  is that they're putting a huge amount of investment into artificial intelligence or AI.
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  And you may have heard, it's called the next Google and it's called chat GPT.
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  Oh, I have it.
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  It's going bananas and it's like, it's called the next Google because you can literally
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  type in anything and it spits out, investment thesis, research, like universities are really
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  scared about it because it's literally got all this data and it's just collating.
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  I could write, we could be like, hey, can you write an ad for the curve?
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  And it would literally write it out.
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  I mean, that's what I've been using sort of to write blogs, if you're not realized.
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  So hold on.
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  So it's basically, so it's a Google, except it's an AI where you can ask it to do
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  tasks.
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  You can ask it anything.
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  You can ask it any kind of search, any information.
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  You can ask it to do stuff for you.
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  It's kind of scary because I think it's the first, well, for me, it's the first realisation
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  of like, oh my god, are we going to have like heaps of really no jobs?
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  Well, like, and also people that are, like, qualified doctors and teachers that have got
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  these degrees and haven't actually got the degrees because there's just been AI that's
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  got them.
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  Like, I was like, oh my god, this is like going to be a world of it.
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  That would be regulated though, right?
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  No, yes, or differently, but it's like, it's just crazy to think like, wow, computers
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  are really learning and they're quickly and I had a friend actually on the Instagram
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  they posted, they were on chat GPT and it was like, can you please write my wedding bells
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  for me?
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  And it was just writing on the screen his wedding bells, he was taking a piss, but it was
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  quite funny.
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  I was like, oh my god, like, this is crazy.
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  This is literally going to be kind of the new Google.
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  So, but why I'm talking about it is that Microsoft invested $10 billion into it and so it kind
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  of got the headlines and now everyone's talking about it and they're like, okay, Microsoft
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  kind of knows what they're doing.
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  So if they're investing in this, you know, it's probably going to be quite prominent in
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  our lives going forward, maybe.
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  So yeah, it's quite interesting and we need to make ourselves not dispensable, not
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  a good and dispensable, what's our special skill, what can we do to be really upping out
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  game that AI can't do, you know, like we need to really brainstorm that, we'll get back
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  to you on that, because surely your job could technically be done by a computer, right?
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  Like, yeah, investing, like, yeah, that's scary, yeah, but they've been saying that for
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  a while with investing and nothing's really taken off, but it's like radio, they're
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  like, it's going to die a slow death and it's like, it's kind of still there, isn't it?
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  Yeah, yeah, so, but that's why that's interesting and then also BuzzFeed, do you know BuzzFeed?
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  What do I do?
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  Yeah, love BuzzFeed.
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  Yeah, I thought I'd be able to do it.
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  So this is a news and entertainment company and it was up, guess how much last week's
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  off?
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  27.
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  Higher, at an extra zero.
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  127.
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  No, that would be...
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  Oh wait, 270.
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  Close, 300% in a week.
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  Fuck off.
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  I know.
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  Yeah.
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  Why did it go up so much?
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  So Meta, so Facebook, I said that it would pay millions to kind of boost, create a content
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  on BuzzFeed.
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  So it was kind of, it's almost like a tick of approval from a big tech company that, and
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  to be honest, their share price had gone literally from $5.60 in 12 months.
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  So everyone was like, this company's on its knees.
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  And then they've obviously got something unique there because Meta's knees are so dramatic
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  by the way.
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  On its knees.
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  We've really helped.
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  So...
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  Are you thinking dodgy on your knees?
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  No.
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  Kind of.
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  Yeah.
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  I'm thinking more like, begging on your knees, begging.
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  It's been a big weekend, you know.
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  Have you been on your knees?
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  I'm you.
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  Yes.
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  I think we're thinking about two different versions of being on your knees, but anyway.
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  Anywho.
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  God.
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  Oh, I hope you were on your knees.
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  Oh, I hope you were on your knees at my place on Friday night.
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  But anyway, that's a conversation.
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  Oh, God no.
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  I'm injured.
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  You should be celebrating.
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  I am for every single checker.
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  I know.
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  Yeah.
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  I'm excited to take this offline and learn more about who, when, how, why?
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  Yeah.
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  No, very exciting, babe.
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  Yeah.
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  No wonder you're tired.
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  I know.
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  Anyway, continue.
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  Yes.
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  The BuzzFeeds, she surprised me from $5 to 60 cents in 12 months.
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  So it was literally like, everyone thought it was going into the toilet.
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  Like, we don't want to own this.
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  We're coming in and saying, hey, we're actually going to invest millions in this business.
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  You know, we think it's just a great vote of confidence when you see a really reputable tech company like that investing in another company.
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  And that's why it's gone up so much.
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  It also says that it's going to use this chat GPT, you know, to help build content and quizzes.
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  And so I think there's just this whole, maybe it's a bit of hype at the moment.
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  But, you know, around this chat GPT and it's open, you know, artificial intelligence and what it means for, you know, for the next few years or the next, you know, decades, watch this space, I think.
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  Finally, finishing with some economic news.
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  We have inflation figures out.
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  I know you love talking about it.
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  No, you love talking about inflation.
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  We had inflation figures out in New Zealand.
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  We, our inflation is running still very, very high.
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  It's 7.2%.
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  But it does look like it's peak.
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  So it was at 7.8.
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  So it's marginally coming down very, very slowly, but it's hitting in the right direction, which is really good.
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  And we had Aussies inflation as well.
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  That's at 7.8.
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  So they've got a bit of problems there.
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  But they're also their interest rates aren't as high.
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  So they haven't been as aggressive.
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  Whereas we have, and that's why interest rates going out out and inflation is coming down.
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  There's, they haven't been increasing their interest rates as much.
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  So there, that's why their inflation is still at those high levels.
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  If someone wants to learn more about this, just quickly, Vic.
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  If someone wants to learn about inflation versus interest rates, the episode that we did, like what, I think it was WTF.
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  Oh my god, I sound like a boomer.
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  What the fuck is going on in the UK right now?
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  That episode was all about the interest rates and how it was kind of like an economics lesson, understanding what was going on in the UK.
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  So if you're like, oh, that's so confusing, I don't get it.
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  That's a really good episode to listen to.
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  Yeah. And then speaking of the UK, so just put that in perspective.
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  So the UK's inflation is still at 11%, which is absolutely bananas.
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  And the US is at 6.5%.
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  We are still seeing really, really high inflation, which is really, really sad for a lot of people.
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  And you're still going to still going to mean we're feeling the pinch a lot, possibly for the rest, rest of the year.
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  But it is in the right direction, but two to three percent is ideal.
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  And we've saw it a long way to go until we get here.
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  And on that really fun note, that really depressing note.
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  I hope you make it back from up north.
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  Yes, same.
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  We've been checking the roads, so fingers crossed, we get back.
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  Oh, fingers crossed.
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  Thank you so much for still doing it.
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  You know, the curve weekly when you're away on a tropical holiday in the North Island.
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  Well, we're all here getting absolutely sodden.
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  Yeah.
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  Well, you know, I love and best thing.
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  And also, what was they going to say?
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  then join the wait list.
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  We'll put the link now.
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  Show notes.
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  See you tomorrow, work.
• 13:39
  Bye.
• 13:40
  Work, that's a new one.
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  Bye.
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